Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/15/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
543 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
19z mesoanalysis currently shows a broad 998mb sfc low centered
over west/central KS with a cold front draped to its north. As
the low pulls northeast out of the area, the cold front will
advance southward later this evening and provide cooler
temperatures along with some gusty winds. Winds so far today have
struggled to increase out of the southwest, due in part to closer
proximity to the center of the low, as well as weak winds aloft
(only 20-30 kts at 700mb). This may be impactful for the timing of
the front. With less of a push from the south to make the cold
front retreat northward this afternoon, it may be able to begin
its trek towards the Panhandles this evening closer than model
guidance has suggested. If this occurs, the front could reach our
northern zones as early as 7 PM (9 PM at latest), reaching I-40 by
11 PM (1 AM at latest), getting through the entire CWA by 5 AM.
Winds will increase behind the front to 15-25 mph with brief
periods of gusts up to 50 mph possible at times, especially in the
northwest where pressure rises will be strongest. Winds will also
be stronger in the east tonight into tomorrow beneath a 40-50kt
850mb jet.
Moisture pooled behind the front could potentially support some
light showers in the northwest tonight, but coverage would be
spotty and any accumulations would be very light. Best rain
chances now appear to be late tomorrow morning into the afternoon
when an increasingly amplified upper trough swings south into the
region and provides better dynamic support for convection. Some
weak instability (100-250 J/kg MUCAPE) could support some low-top
convection in the northeast when a broad area of strong PVA
moves in along the trough axis. Dew pts should still be near 30
across the area tomorrow, and with cooler temperatures in the
50s-60s, precip will have a better chance to make it to the
ground. Strong winds could become a concern with any storms that
develop given steep low-level lapse rates present with several
forecast soundings depicting an "inverted V" signature. The 12z
and 18z HRRR have both shown signs of this happening, depicting
40-50 kt gusts possible associated with convection. Precip totals
will be light, generally a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch
for those lucky enough to get it. The low will exit to the east
Saturday evening and precip will clear out as a surface high
quickly replaces it and dry air moves in, also helping to
increase gradient winds. Sunday night will be colder with lows in
the 20s to 30s thanks to clear skies and light winds.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
An upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to move across
the plains states Sunday through Tuesday. At lower levels, a
surface trof of low pressure will develop over eastern Colorado
and eastern New Mexico. The corresponding tight pressure gradient
will result in increasing south to southwest winds Monday and
Tuesday along with above normal temperatures. Just enough low
level moisture may return by Tuesday afternoon across far eastern
sections to possibly warrant the development of isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Medium range models differ on whether or not
any precipitation will form that afternoon. The latest 12Z GFS has
a sufficient cap to preclude precipitation development altogether
Tuesday afternoon and evening in the far eastern zones. Other
models such as the 12Z ECMWF and 12Z CMC have isolated storm
development in the far eastern zones. Other 12Z models keep any
precipitation development east of our forecast area. Given large
model discrepancies this far out in time, have gone with the NBM
pops for Tuesday across parts of the eastern and southeastern
TX Panhandle for now.
What little moisture arrives in the eastern zones on Tuesday will
be scoured out and shunted eastward by Wednesday as a large
western states upper level trof develops and downsloping southwest
winds increase at multiple levels in the atmosphere. Breezy to
windy conditions are expected both Wednesday and Thursday along
with above normal temperatures. A cold frontal passage may impact
the region next Friday. No precipitation is anticipated with this
possible frontal passage at this time. NBM temperatures and pops
were utilized in the grids for all periods of the long term.
02
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
The main focus for this period is the timing of a cold frontal
passage and some gusty northwesterly winds behind it. It is
currently expected to move through KGUY around 04z, KDHT around
05z, and KAMA around 08z. However, won`t be surprised if the cold
front moves through quicker. Will update TAFs and discussion if
needed. For KAMA and KDHT, VFR will prevail through the period.
KGUY may briefly dip to MVFR around 14z with some rain showers.
Have left out the rain showers for now as confidence is currently
too low to include.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Monday through Thursday.
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to
develop Monday through Thursday across the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles due to breezy to windy conditions along with low
relative humidity values.
02
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 43 62 32 71 / 0 20 0 0
Beaver OK 41 59 30 70 / 10 30 10 0
Boise City OK 35 56 27 69 / 20 20 0 0
Borger TX 43 63 32 74 / 0 20 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 42 62 30 74 / 10 20 0 0
Canyon TX 42 63 29 72 / 0 10 0 0
Clarendon TX 45 64 36 72 / 0 10 0 0
Dalhart TX 37 58 25 70 / 10 20 0 0
Guymon OK 39 58 28 70 / 10 30 10 0
Hereford TX 42 65 30 73 / 0 10 0 0
Lipscomb TX 42 59 32 70 / 10 20 10 0
Pampa TX 42 61 31 70 / 10 20 10 0
Shamrock TX 46 65 37 72 / 0 20 10 0
Wellington TX 48 68 37 73 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
TXZ001>009-011>013-016-017-317.
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
OKZ001>003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1011 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Main updates were for the latest radar trends. Band of rain,
possibly mixed with snow, may still clip the southeast through the
late evening or early overnight hours. Minimal impacts are
expected. There is still some chances for patchy fog in the
northwest tonight. Otherwise look for a mostly cloudy night with
low temperatures generally in the 20s.
UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Overall only minor updates needed early this evening. Mostly
cloudy skies remain across the area, although little to no precip
is currently being reported. Trimmed down slight chances for light
rain showers through the evening. The exception being in the
southeast. A band of rain is pushing north and east in South
Dakota. There is a slight chance some of this enters the southeast
this evening. Otherwise, there are some hints of patchy fog
tonight, especially in the northwest. Added this in for just the
northwest at this time, given winds diminish somewhat in this
area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
North Dakota continues to sit under southwest flow with a trough
to the west down through the Rockies and Four Corners region. At
the surface, a low and front has almost completely pushed out of
the eastern Dakotas, which was the area of forcing for this
morning`s rain in the James River Valley. Behind this front,
breezy northwest winds will continue today and again tomorrow,
especially in the east. A few periods of slight chances for light
rain are forecast through Saturday, though coverage and intensity
should remain low. The HRRR remains most aggressive with showers
this afternoon across western North Dakota, but with cold surface
temperatures limiting instability, confidence in the more
aggressive coverage solution is low. Can`t rule out a few more
showers again Saturday over the west, but again confidence is low
for the same reasons. Saturday will begin a warming trend, at
least in the west, where 40s to lower 50s is expected with 30s in
the east.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
A transition to ridging aloft is expected to take place this
weekend, ushering in warmer temperatures with an initially dry
forecast. By Monday, highs reaching the lower 60s will be possible
in western North Dakota, while the east will remain cooler and in
the 40s. Precipitation chances and a cooling trend begins mid-
week.
As previously advertised, mid-week looks to be highlighted by the
ridge pushing off east and strengthening western CONUS troughing
returning precipitation chances to the Northern Plains. Ensemble
probabilities for QPF thresholds have notably increased from the
previous forecast shifts, to where the NBM is advertising 30 to 45
percent probabilities of greater than 0.5" of liquid into
Thursday and a 60 to 75 percent chance of greater than 0.1" of
liquid at any point in western and central North Dakota.
Precipitation type still remains heavily in question. Even with
cooler temperatures expected at night, the possibility of
widespread cloud cover may prevent temperatures from fully falling
to current forecast lows, further driving the uncertainty of any
potential snow accumulation. An increase in potential for
accumulating snow will likely take a shift in the track of any
mid-level low, bringing colder air with it as well as shifting the
region of heavier snowfall rates into North Dakota instead of
further west or north. For now the forecast remains mostly rain
with snow mixed in, then increasing snow chances late in the
forecast period as forecast temperatures continue to drop late
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Mostly cloudy skies will continue MVFR conditions through tonight.
Some sites may even see ceilings lower to IFR at times. MVFR cloud
cover could then continue for much of Saturday, perhaps improving
to VFR later in the day. Chances for rain or snow showers are too
low to include in the forecast at this time, although may be found
across the southeast this evening and the west tomorrow. A breezy
northwest wind may also be found at times throughout the forecast
period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Anglin
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...Anglin
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
633 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Tide levels continue to slowly fall this evening toward low tide
early Saturday morning. Cancelled the Coastal Flood Advisory.
Continuing to monitor convective potential for this evening.
SPC mesoanalysis shows strong instability in place over the
coastal plains where MLCAPE values are up to 3000 J/kg with values
a little lower over the Brush Country, 1500-2000 J/kg. Effective
shear is increasing over the western areas with the approach of a
mid level short wave trough. Isolated strong convection has been
limited to north of Cotulla over the past hour, but additional
convection is over Mexico to the southwest of Laredo. Latest HRRR
model continues to be optimistic in showing strong convection
forming over the Brush Country this evening and move eastward
to the Victoria Crossroads for the early morning hours Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
This evening could get a little interesting...conditionally. We
still have a strong cap, but there is some potential that this cap
could break west and allow for convection in the evening to
overnight hours. Lapse analysis has 50-100 j/kg CIN over the
eastern and northern parts of the area with CAPE well over 3K
j/kg and lapse rates 8-8.5 C/km). Thus, if storms are able to
develop, they could very quickly get strong to severe. There`s a
tongue of lower CIN toward Carrizo Springs and Eagle Pass, and
this could be the initiation zone as a weak shortwave approaches
by around 00Z...give or take. Most likely location for convection
is through our northern counties this evening and into the
Victoria Crossroads overnight, but could see some isolated
activity farther south. Convection should end before daybreak.
Large hail looks to be the primary threat, though low level drier
air could also lead to strong winds.
Saturday looks to be a very warm day behind a weak dry boundary
pushing eastward out of Mexico and ahead of a cold front that
moves through Saturday night. High temperatures in the 90s are
expected over much of the area, especially west. A few locations
could approach 100. Cold front moves through from north to south
mainly after midnight Saturday night with moderate to strong winds
developing behind it.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates 500 hPa heights will
remain largely zonal across South Texas. At the surface, a
persistent surface pressure gradient will result in return flow
through the end of the week. Advection of rich Gulf moisture will
result in humidity steadily increasing throughout the week. Cyclonic
vorticity associated with speed shear is forecast to be advected
across Texas on Tuesday. The increasing support for ascent combined
with a conditionally unstable atmosphere characterized by 500-1000
J/kg SBCAPE will result in a medium chance (20%-50%) of showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Latest P-ETSS guidance continues to indicate the likelihood of
coastal flooding continuing during periods of high tide through
Tuesday is low. However, this will continue to be monitored as
strong northeast winds behind the front and increasing swell early
next week can both be favorable for increased water levels.&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
VFR conditions expected through this afternoon. Things get a
little tricky this evening with the potential for some
thunderstorms to develop. Have included the mention of storms for
only COT and VCT sites at this time, but there is also a lower
chance at other sites. All sites do have some potential and may
need to be included later. MVFR CIGS develop for all sites
overnight and continue into the Saturday morning hours. A weak dry
boundary will move into western portions of the area by mid-
morning shifting winds more westerly and clearing out CIGS.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
MVFR ceilings will persist over the Victoria Crossroads region
this evening and develop over the Coastal Bend by mid to late
evening. Isolated to scattered convection is expected to form
over the Brush Country this evening and move east toward VCT
area by 06Z. Will show MVFR vsbys with the convection for
COT this evening and VCT later. Convection is expected to be
east into the coastal waters by 09Z. MVFR ceilings will linger
over the coastal plains for the morning hours. Drier air will
move into the region with the passage of a trough and VFR
conditions will be prevalent through the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Light to moderate southeasterly flow is noted across much of the
area, though more moderate flow is occurring south of Port Aransas
this afternoon/evening. Winds should become light to moderate
later tonight and through the day Saturday, out of a more
southerly direction. A cold front will sweep across the region
Saturday night leading to north-northeast winds of 20-30 knots
through Sunday afternoon. There is currently a 30-50% for gusts
over 35 knots out to 20 nm and a 50%- 80% chance beyond 20 nm on
Sunday. These strong winds will contribute to seas building to 4-8
feet Sunday morning and afternoon. Winds will begin to decrease
resulting in seas subsiding Sunday evening. Therefore, Small Craft
Advisories will be likely be issued for the coastal waters from
Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Onshore flow is forecast
to redevelop Monday evening as high pressure shifts eastward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A persistent surface pressure
gradient will result in southeasterly winds of 15-20 knots through
the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 71 94 64 / 20 10 0
Victoria 70 89 59 / 30 20 10
Laredo 69 97 65 / 20 0 0
Alice 70 96 62 / 20 10 0
Rockport 71 84 64 / 20 10 10
Cotulla 68 99 62 / 30 0 0
Kingsville 71 95 64 / 20 10 0
Navy Corpus 72 84 67 / 20 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....TWH
AVIATION...TMT/89
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
524 PM MDT Fri Apr 14 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Current Visible Satellite loop and KCYS radar shows bands of light
to moderate snow shower activity lifting northeast across the area
this afternoon. Current observations show a snowlevel hovering
around 4500 feet across western Nebraska with snow in Kimball but
rain in Sidney over the past hour. Further west, thankfully, snow
has struggled to accumulate across the high valleys and high
plains along I-25 due to the high sun angle and the breaks in the
precipitation. Area webcams show just wet roads with snow in the
grassy or elevated surfaces outside of the Winter Weather
Advisory, so current forecast is on track. Went a little higher
(compared to this time yesterday) on snow accumulations due to:
(a) snowfall lingering through tonight and even Saturday morning
(b) to account for locally heavy snowbands which have already
resulted in a quick inch of snow. However, do not necessarily
expect current total snow accumulations to be representative of
what is actually on the ground at any given time.
Although current forecast into this evening is on track, there is
some uncertainty with a secondary band of snow late tonight and
early Saturday morning. After a brief late evening lull in
snowfall, models have trended slower with the movement and
passage of the primary upper level trough axis and associated
secondary disturbance tonight. The HRRR and the ECMWF show an
inverted surface trough developing near or just east of the I-25
corridor as the upper level Vort Max moves east near the
Colorado/Wyoming border. High res guidance has been persistent in
showing a steady band of moderate snow along and to the east of
the inverted surface trough/convergence boundary between 300 am
late tonight through early Saturday morning. Increased POP and
accumulations a bit, but did not increase amounts over an inch
quite yet. A little concerned the a few places between eastern
Albany county and the Nebraska/Wyoming border may get a solid 2 to
4 inches of snow (in addition to what fell today) with this
secondary band. Synoptic models are having a hard time resolving
this due to the mesoscale nature of this feature. Will brief the
next shift accordingly. For now, increased POP to 40 to 60 percent
and nudged snow accumulations up a bit.
Any steady snowfall still ongoing through early Saturday morning
will quickly come to an end as the primary trough axis finally
moves eastward into NE Colorado and western Nebraska. Usually,
drier conditions are expected behind the trough, but surface
instability and lingering low level moisture will keep Saturday
unsettled and cloudy with a good chance for isolated or widely
scattered snow showers, mixing with rain below 5000 feet. Kept
POPs around the low scattered category for now, especially along
and south of the North Platte River valley including the I-80
corridor.
One more cold night expected Saturday night with clearing skies.
Low temperatures in the teens to mid 20s will prevail across both
southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska due to good radiational
cooling near the surface. Will need to monitor fog potential,
especially over western Nebraska through early Sunday morning.
Temperatures are forecast to moderate on Sunday as 700mb
temperatures climb above 0c through the afternoon. Expect high
temperatures in the 50s to near 60 along and west of the I-25
corridor with highs in the low 60s east of Interstate 25 Sunday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Fri Apr 14 2023
The long term period will begin with another warm spell for Monday
and Tuesday, but forecast uncertainty increases considerably by
Wednesday. A period of strong winds is possible Tuesday
night/Wednesday, followed by the potential for a cooler and more
unsettled stretch of weather for the second half of the week.
A strong but fairly narrow ridge will move over the Rockies during
the early part of next week, bringing another significant warm up to
our area. 700-mb temperatures will climb to about +5C for Monday and
Tuesday per the GEFS mean as the ridge axis passes through. The
overall ridge strength looks quite a bit weaker than last week`s
ridge, with 500-mb heights maximizing around 565-570dm. Thus, not
expecting the warmth to rival the record breaking heat we saw on
Tuesday/Wednesday this past week, but we should manage 10-15F above
normal. The NBM remains fairly cold amongst other guidance likely
due to its 60-day bias correction which has been dominated by cold.
Therefore, nudged to the NBM 50th percentile for Monday and Tuesday,
which brings a forecast of widespread 70s east of the Laramie Range
with the usual warm spots potentially nearing 80F. Also should note
that the invalid temperature observation from KTOR appears to be
getting into the NBM percentile data somehow, so did need to smooth
this out.
There is high confidence in the forecast of warmth for the early
part of the week, but ensemble spread increases considerably for
Wednesday through Friday. Most models have now trended toward a
faster arrival of the next Pacific trough, with the cold front
passing through Tuesday night sometime now. Gusty southwest winds
are likely across much of the area on Tuesday ahead of the front,
which could lead to a bora-type wind event for Tuesday night and
Wednesday in its wake. The deterministic GFS is the most aggressive
with this, showing very strong winds along and in the immediate lee
of the Laramie range, but increasing numbers of GEFS members have
been coming on board with this in the last few runs also. GEFS 90th
percentile winds are over 50-knots at KCYS, with the 50th percentile
at around 40-knots. While certainly not locked in, this is a fairly
strong signal for this lead time so will need to keep an eye on
Tuesday night through Wednesday for strong winds, at least in the
wind prone areas but possibly spilling over to a more widespread
event. For the official forecast, nudged winds upward for this
period towards the GFS and NBM 90th percentile. Wednesday`s
temperatures are likely to be at least 10 to 15F cooler than
Tuesday, but could be even colder than that.
The second half of next week looks pretty messy. Most model guidance
has a broad longwave trough fixed over the Pacific northwest from
Tuesday through Saturday next week, with a series of shortwaves
ejecting out across the Rockies and plains as the longwave trough
meanders east very slowly. However, the details regarding timing and
impacts from any specific shortwave are still highly uncertain at
this time. Worth mentioning is the 12z deterministic GFS, which
shows a very significant QPF producer on Thursday/Friday. While not
outside of the realm of possibility, this solution currently has the
support of only about 15% of the GEFS members and none of the ECE
members. Most other guidance brings through a shallower, weaker
trough aloft that doesn`t dig far enough south to deliver the strong
upslope flow necessary for that kind of QPF in this area. For now,
let the official forecast largely follow the NBM with slight chance
to chance PoPs running nearly constantly from Wednesday through
Friday. We will need to monitor this period as we get closer to
clear up the details, but at the minimum, expect cooler temperatures
with light rain and snow showers at times during the late week
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 518 PM MDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Another tricky forecast period to pin down regarding TAFs for the
next 6-12 hours due to -SHSN being present for several terminals.
The best description would be mentioning frequent fluctuations for
LIFR/IFR/MVFR as VIS and CIGs change for all terminals except for
KCDR and KRWL through the forecast period. Most terminals will see
VFR by Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts should remain under 15
knots this evening and overnight, but the expectation is for wind
gusts to pick up to 20-30 knots by mid to late morning for all
terminals Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Minimal fire weather concerns over the next several days due to
widespread precipitation, colder temperatures, and some snowfall
possible tonight through Saturday. Warmer temperatures expect next
week with lowering daytime relative humidities by Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for WYZ110-112-
114-116-117.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...BW
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
924 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Storms have initiated along the Rio Grande and are maintaining
strength. We have increased PoPs tonight roughly along and south of
the U.S. 90 corridor, including the San Antonio metro area. Latest
estimate is for the storms to reach the I-35 corridor near and south
of San Antonio between Midnight and 1AM. Large hail is still the
primary risk with any storms that become severe, with a secondary
straight-line wind threat.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...
Issued at 715 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
We have seen isolated storms develop early this evening, with one
becoming briefly strong, but all have hard time maintaining
intensity and have quickly dissipated. However, a mid-level impulse
approaching from Mexico may assist with the development of more
intense and longer lasting convection into the later evening hours
across the southern CWA. Several CAMs continue to indicate this
possibility, including 23Z HRRR and 18Z 3KM NAM. Very steep elevated
lapse rates are present, yielding MLCAPE values in excess of 2000
J/kg per SPC Mesoscale Analysis, coinciding with around 40KT of
effective bulk shear.
Any storms that form and can maintain themselves later this evening
will be capable of producing large hail, with an isolated storm or
two capable of producing very large hail (2+ inches in diameter or
greater). While confidence is overall low in coverage, the time
window to watch is between 9PM and 2AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
The latest GOES 16 Water Vapor imagery shows a deepening trough over
the Four Corners, which has in turn has a weak shortwave embedded
within the large scale flow over the southern Baja of California.
This shortwave will slide northeastward and aide in the development
of a few strong to severe storms over the Rio Grande Plains late
this afternoon into the early evening. Storms have to potential to
march eastward and impact the San Antonio metro and points south and
then eastward through the Coastal Plains through midnight tonight.
The primary concern will be large hail, but damaging wind gusts are
also possible late this evening as storms decay.
In coordination with SPC, a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) was
introduced for much of Rio Grande Plains eastward to just south of
the Austin metro and into the Coastal Plains. The going thinking is
that storms will be fighting a rather stout capping inversion, but
with the latest hi res guidance showing this cap eroding quicker
than 24 hours ago at this time, concern is increasing for a few
strong to severe storms in the above locations late this afternoon
through about midnight. Midlevel lapse rates of 8.0-9.0 C/km and
MLCAPE/MUCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg will result in large hail in any
storm that manages to bust through the cap. The TTU WRF, FV3, HRRR,
and RRFS all indicate some rather robust convection this evening
over the Marginal Risk area, especially along and south of the
Highway 90/I-10 corridor.
Saturday will bring the heat for the region as compressional warming
ahead of an approaching cold front will result in widespread high
temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The aforementioned long
wave trough will swing through the Texas Panhandle Saturday
afternoon, with a sfc cold front sweeping through South-Central
Texas by early to mid-afternoon. Winds will swing around out of the
WNW behind the front, increasing to 15-20 mph, with higher gusts.
Factor in minimum relative humidities in the 10-20% range over the
Rio Grande Plains, Edwards Plateau, and western Hill Country, and
elevated fire weather conditions may develop. Some of that threat is
dependent on how much rain those locations see with this evenings`
convection, but at the moment, I think most of those locations will
miss out north of Highway 90. As the cold front moves through the
CWA, there is a very low chance for a storm or two to develop along
the boundary, especially over the extreme eastern Coastal Plains.
Any storm that forms could quickly turn severe with large hail and
damaging winds being the primary hazards. Cooler temperatures are
expected to filter in Saturday night, with a pleasant start expected
on Sunday morning in the upper 40s north, and the upper 50s south.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
South-Central Texas will be in the wake of the cold front on Sunday
with clear skies and decreasing northerly wind for the afternoon.
Highs will be notably cooler than Saturday, ranging from the mid 70s
in the northeast to the mid 80s along the Rio Grande. Very dry
conditions are also forecast this day with elevated fire weather
possible mainly over the Hill Country and parts of the I-35 corridor
before winds decrease substantially mid to late afternoon.
High pressure shifts to the east by Monday afternoon bringing back
southeasterly flow which will lead to a slight warm up this day,
with highs mainly in the 80s. A dry forecast persists on Monday as
moisture lags getting into the area, although it ramps up Monday
night into Tuesday. This moistening coincides with a weak shortwave
moving across the area bringing chances for rain and thunderstorms
late Monday night through Tuesday night. QPF amounts have trended
slightly higher than the previous forecast, except in the west where
only up to a tenth of an inch looks likely. Further east, amounts
range from 0.25-0.75" at this time.
Models continue to struggle the rest of the week on the overall
pattern. Some additional chances for rain do look possible, with the
best chances in the Friday-Saturday timeframe. Expect the warmer
conditions to continue with highs mainly in the 80s Wednesday
through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Main aviation concerns later this evening are the chances for
TSRAs near and south of SAT/SSF. There is a window from 02Z-07Z
where isolated to widely scattered TSRAs could develop in this
region. A few storms could become strong to severe. Otherwise, a
window of MVFR ceilings are possible later this evening with a
frontal passage on Saturday resulting in W to NW winds 10-15KT, with
higher gusts, becoming N to NE and strengthening Saturday evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 68 91 54 77 / 20 10 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 91 53 76 / 20 10 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 93 54 79 / 30 10 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 65 90 50 76 / 10 10 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 62 94 58 85 / 50 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 66 90 51 76 / 10 10 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 64 93 56 82 / 50 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 66 92 54 77 / 20 10 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 86 54 73 / 20 20 10 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 67 93 56 79 / 50 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 67 93 58 79 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...27
Aviation...76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
921 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening upper level disturbance moving through the Ohio
Valley will bring a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms
tonight into Saturday. A better chance for showers and
thunderstorms will overspread the region on Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front. A much cooler airmass will settle into
the area for the start of the upcoming workweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Upper low over eastern Tennessee will slowly lift northeastward
into West Virgina tonight. Outside a few isolated showers and
storms, the latest HRRR update and radar trends show a better
chance of showers focusing across northeast KY through south-
central OH... mainly before midnight. Therefore, have painted
likely PoPs across this area between 5-10pm. Have been
monitoring radar for localized flood potential from these slow
moving heavy showers.
Precipitation becomes more scattered after midnight, with low
temperatures only dropping into the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As the weakening upper low exits the region on Saturday,
mid-level ridging will build back into the middle Ohio River
Valley. Conditions will become mostly warm and dry... but can`t
rule out an isolated shower/storm due to weak instability from
the combination of low level moisture and afternoon heating.
Highs will peak in the mid 70s to around 80.
A strong mid-level shortwave across the Upper Midwest will dig
into the middle Mississippi River Valley Saturday night.
Increasing southerly flow and minor disturbances ahead of this
feature will allow for increasing precipitation chances late...
though most of this activity appears to hold off until Sunday.
Clouds and warm air advection will keep low temperatures in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period will start off on a bit of an active note, with
a relatively sharp front fcst to progress from W to E through the
ILN FA from late morning through late afternoon. The latest guidance
continues to show a /slightly/ slower progression of the front into,
and through, the immediate local area, suggesting that the best/most
widespread SHRA/TSRA coverage will be centered more during the
daytime than prior to daybreak. This slower trend may end up
allowing a bit more diurnally-driven instby to become realized,
especially for locales near/E of the I-75 corridor, as the stronger
forcing and ascent arrive past mid-morning. Certainly this has
implications on the potential for a few strong to severe storms,
with a bit more favorable LL thermodynamic environment in place than
would be the case if the FROPA occurred only 6 hours earlier.
So with this being said, we will continue to monitor the potential
for a few strong to severe storms in the area late Sunday morning
through the afternoon. The environment should undergo some LL
destabilization into the afternoon ahead of any linear clusters of
TSRA that initially develop across far ern IN. How quickly this
occurs, and how far W the linear storm structures are when
sufficient SB destabilization is able to materialize, remains
somewhat in question. However, confidence is higher in the potential
for a few strong to severe storms near/E of the I-75 corridor in
both KY and OH into the afternoon given the wider time frame for
which destabilization may be allowed to evolve. And with robust LL
and deeper-layer shear supporting some linear organization to the
activity, the main threat from these storms is going to be locally
strong/damaging winds in areas where the LL thermodynamic
environment is able to ripen. This would be particularly the case in
any line segment that is oriented more NW to SE given the LL bulk
shear vector at about 200-210 degrees. Suppose some small hail
cannot be completely ruled out, but given the marginal midlevel
lapse rates and questions regarding the degree of instby, hail
should remain more limited.
Strong CAA evolves in the post-frontal environment by Sunday
evening, with wraparound moisture pivoting around the larger stacked
low pressure system lingering about the region through the day on
Monday. In fact, given the maintenance of sufficient moisture and
the steepening lapse rates into the day Monday, expect that SCT to
numerous SHRA will develop about the OH Vly through the daytime,
focusing more widespread coverage N of the OH Rvr. This, combined
with BKN to OVC skies, should keep temps /well/ below normal Monday
afternoon, with highs generally in the 40s and lower 50s amidst a
stiff westerly wind at 20-25 MPH and gusts to 35-40 MPH.
Conditions improve from W to E during the daytime on TUesday, but
temps should still remain slightly below normal, despite the sunnier
conditions (especially by late in the day). Highs return to normal,
and eventually above normal, by midweek and beyond as the closed low
pulls quickly E of the OH Vly and midlevel ridging briefly builds in
ahead of the next system, which should eject into the central plains
as early as Thursday. Broad SW flow aloft becomes established toward
the end of the workweek, with much warmer temps and increased LL
moisture as we progress toward Friday. Rain chances may return as
early as late Thursday night as the next system approaches, but
there remain uncertainties regarding specifics and timing for this
system at these time ranges.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR is expected through period. Since there is low pressure and
a humid airmass centered to the southeast, there will be VCSH.
Kept prevailing showers and any mention of thunder out due to
isolated nature of the weather features. Winds are forecast to
stay under 10 knots, with direction changing from southeast to
southwest as the low progresses north along the Appalachians.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs and thunderstorms possible Saturday.
Thunderstorms possible again on Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Coniglio
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
641 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Short Term...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
* Well above normal temperatures persist
* Slight chance of showers through this evening
Current satellite imagery this afternoon reveals scattered clouds
across Central Indiana due to an upper level low pushing northeast
through the Tennessee Valley. Southeasterly moisture advection today
was running around 5 kts stronger in the mid levels than what
guidance was previously showing. Diffluence aloft combined with weak
PVA has placed the region in an area of enhanced lift which has
aided in the development of mid and upper clouds and isolated
showers through the day. Best forcing for ascent and moisture
advection has now pushed off to the east leading to clouds breaking
up and showers diminishing in coverage. Afternoon heating has since
resulted in low level destabilization, steeper low level lapse
rates, and the development of scattered cumulus clouds. Potential is
there for an isolated shower or even thunderstorm through the
evening hours, with the best chances across Eastern Indiana where
the best forcing for ascent is. Latest ACARS soundings from the
region show SBCAPE upwards of 900 j/kg, so a thunderstorm or two is
possible; however weak forcing for ascent should keep convection
isolated. A dry pocket between 1-3km agl may allow for a brief
strong wind threat to mix down to the surface under a thunderstorm
as well. This entire system has also aided in bringing surface dew
points up 20+ degrees since yesterday, giving a very muggy feel to
the air. Expect humid conditions to persist into tomorrow ahead of a
cold front as warm, moist air continues to advect northward into the
Ohio Valley.
For tonight, the upper level low tracks east of the region with
drying conditions expected on the backside of it. A few high clouds
may linger into the overnight hours but expect any shower activity
to end due to NVA and sinking air on the backside of that system.
Light southerly winds and much higher dew points will keep overnight
lows from falling much tonight. Expect lows in the mid to upper 50s
across the region, well above average for mid April.
.Saturday...
Strong ridging aloft and warm air advection ahead of an approaching
trough will keep summer-like conditions around for one more day
across Indiana. Latest RAP soundings and cross sectional views show
steep low level lapse rates and deep mixing from strong boundary
layer heating. Low level jet is rather weak, less than 15 kts during
the day, so any winds that do mix down to the surface should be
strong. Expect highs to approach the 80 degree mark once again for
most locations. Dew points will remain in the 50s so expect a more
muggy feel to the air tomorrow as well. Main forcing for ascent
remains west of the region so not concerned with thunderstorms
developing during the day in Central Indiana. Best forcing for
precipitation arrives late Saturday night as the main cold front
approaches. More information on the rain and thunderstorm threat
below in the long term section.
&&
.Long Term...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
An active second half of the weekend is expected as a strengthening
upper low lifts into the Great Lakes by Sunday. This will bring
convective chances late Saturday night into Sunday with at least a
non-zero risk for a few severe storms along a cold front late Sunday
morning through mid afternoon. In the wake of the frontal passage
will come a nasty reminder that we can still see raw and chilly
weather in mid April. Cool temperatures are expected for early next
week before quickly reverting back to a warmer and quieter regime
before rain chances increase towards the end of the 7 day period.
Model guidance continues to slow the arrival of the upper low and
associated surface wave and cold front as energy aloft from the
northern stream dives into the upper trough and carves out a
strengthening upper low with a negative tilt by Sunday. Initially
Saturday evening with the surface low and front back near the
Mississippi River...any convection ongoing will be well to the west
of central Indiana. Showers and storms will diminish in intensity
and likely in coverage as well as they move into the forecast area
after midnight. While some weak instability lingers...primary
forcing at 850mb and in the mid levels will largely remain displaced
to our west. Expect showers with embedded thunder but any threat for
severe convection looks minimal. Storms could produce localized
heavy rainfall with PWATS rising above 1.25 inches but widespread
heavier rain rates are not anticipated
The better risk for any storms to reach severe levels now is likely
to focus along and immediately ahead of the cold front as it tacks
across the forecast area late morning through mid afternoon Sunday.
Forcing aloft will strengthen on Sunday with diffluence in the mid
and upper levels noted and an increase in boundary layer flow.
While instability levels remain relatively low...model soundings do
support a brief increase in speed and directional shear along with 0-
1km SRH values above 100 m2/s2. This could be enough to generate a
few stronger cells with damaging winds being the primary concern.
Any risk for severe will shift east into Ohio by mid afternoon with
the front.
Once the front passes...much cooler air will advect into the Ohio
Valley as a broad cold pool expands into the area in association
with the upper low and surface wave over the western Great Lakes.
These features will move slowly east through late Monday...heavily
influencing weather across the forecast area into Monday night. n
Raw...brisk and windy conditions will be the rule Sunday afternoon
through Monday providing a much different feel to the air than what
we have enjoyed over the last week or so. The lower levels will
become cold enough by late Sunday night to enable flurries or light
snow to mix in with rain...primarily focused across northern
portions of the forecast area. This will linger on Monday with even
potential for graupel to mix in with showers as well as steep lapse
rates will be present through the boundary layer.
Skies will remain cloudy with slow clearing from the southwest
Monday as the upper low moves away. The potential for some sun
Monday afternoon may enable temps to warm into the low and mid 50s
across the southwest half of the area...with 40s expected elsewhere.
Lows both Monday and Tuesday night will dip into the 30s across much
of the area...but frost is likely to be largely mitigated by
continued breezy winds. There is an outside chance at frost over
northern counties Tuesday night as winds lighten.
After the early week cool temperatures...high pressure and ridging
aloft will enable a quick warmup with highs back into the 70s by
Wednesday. A frontal boundary will move into the lower Great Lakes
by Thursday and Friday with the potential for scattered convection
across the region.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 641 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Impacts:
* Isolated convection will diminish before 03Z.
* Low chances for fog where rain fell today
Discussion:
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish early in
the period as instability wanes with loss of sunshine. Will monitor
for any need of a VC mention at issuance time.
VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of any
convection early. Cumulus will diminish this evening leaving behind
some mid and high clouds, which will persist into Saturday.
There is a low chance for some fog/stratus late tonight near KBMG
where rain fell today, with light winds expected. However, at the
moment, believe odds are too low to mention.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short Term...CM
Long Term...Ryan
Aviation...50
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
642 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
For late today and this evening, an upper low lifting NNE across
the TN Valley region will spread a few showers as far west as our
KY Pennyrile region counties, maybe southwest IN as well. Latest
RAP forecasts keep better elevated instability just to our east,
so we left thunder out for now. Then for the overnight we should
turn mostly clear and remain mild. Late night clouds return to
SEMO.
Saturday, the models continue to advertise a weak mid level
feature will move across the area through the course of the day.
As we destabilize, we should see a widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop around the midday hours over SEMO, with the
activity continuing east through the afternoon over parts of
southern IL and west KY. Not expecting too much coverage. And the
activity will have a hard time making eastward progress.
For Saturday evening and overnight, more organized convection will
accompany the approach of a cold front. Evolution will be over
Missouri south into Arkansas from later in the afternoon to the
end of the day Saturday as a 500mb low deepens and moves east from
the Plains. So after the initial convective activity Saturday,
our focus will turn to convection that should approach southeast
Missouri and then move across the west 1/2 of the area from 6 to
10 p.m. or so. Given a corridor of decent instability and little
convective inhibition will persist in this area (focus on SEMO),
we may see some strong to locally severe convection, with damaging
wind and large hail the primary hazards. Respectable storm scale
organization should be achievable with deeper layer shear over 30
kts. However low level shear is not impressive. The damaging wind
and hail threat is mainly driven by elevated CAPE, decent mid
level lapse rates coincident with a nice theta-e drop from the
3-6km layer down to the lowest 3km seen on model cross sections.
As the activity continues east Saturday night toward the midnight
hour, the showers and storms will begin to diminish somewhat in
intensity. Any lingering organized convection could maintain
enough momentum to transfer strong winds to the surface to about
the MS River and maybe into southern IL and far west KY. For the
rest of the overnight, a more notable weakening trend should
unfold toward southwest Indiana and the Kentucky Pennyrile.
Sunday through Sunday night, the chance of showers (and maybe a
clap of thunder) will diminish from southwest to northeast. Most
of Sunday night should be dry. Think the NBM is a bit overdone
with PoPs Sunday. We toned them down just a bit, with southwest IN
having the best shot at wrap around light showers. Sunday will
feature a fair amount of clouds, serving to keep temperatures in
the 50s to lower 60s. Gusty winds are also anticipated, but below
advisory levels per the latest forecast data.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
The deep upper low responsible for the inclement weekend weather
will move away from the area early next week, across the Great
Lakes, eastern Canadian Provinces and New England. High pressure
and ridging aloft should keep us dry through mid week. Noticed a
couple of models develop convection near and just to our north
Tuesday night. We will monitor the model trends in the coming
days.
Greater focus is on Thursday through Friday as a mid level trof
takes shape to our north and west. The combination of this with an
associated frontal boundary that may impact our area could
translate into more shower and thunderstorm activity. The mild to
warm weather returns as well.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, with an increase
in mid level clouds after 18z. Chances of shra/tsra reach KCGI by
around 20z, and included VCSH/VCTS. Primarily south but sometimes
variable light winds expected tonight, becoming south at 8-13 kts
by late morning, with some afternoon gusts of 15-20 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...RST
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1011 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
The lull before Saturday evenings storm is upon us. A bubble of
surface high pressure will be centered over the FL Peninsula
overnight. Satellite-derived PW imagery shows an east-west axis of
dry air (PW values below 0.75 inches) from Panama City to Perry
FL. So a dry night is expected.
Newly arriving 00z CAMS guidance is still giving us concern for a
MCS of squall line of thunderstorms blasting across the Panhandle
and northeast Gulf late Saturday afternoon into the evening,
possibly holding together into the Big Bend region. This will
arrive quickly at the end of a beautiful Saturday, so be ready to
head indoors quickly.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 404 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
As the upper-level low continues to move northeastward we`ll
experience a brief moment of ridging behind it before the next
frontal system that arrives at the tail-end of the near term.
Southerly flow remains in place throughout the near term, allowing
dew points to rise from their current upper 50s levels into the
mid and upper 60s across Florida, and in the low 60s across GA and
AL by tomorrow afternoon. Instability appears to remain capped
throughout most of the day until late afternoon, with mid-level
dry air possibly also limiting activity until late afternoon, as
expected with brief ridging. A cluster of potentially strong
thunderstorms encroach on the western portion of the area right at
the end of this period.
Expect overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s with daytime
highs generally in the low to mid 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 404 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
The cluster of showers and thunderstorms moves farther eastward
Saturday evening. The environment appears conducive for at least a
marginal severe threat, despite not being outlined by any risk until
12Z Sunday in the SPC Day 3 Outlook. Limiting factors in this
set up would be instability, which may be more confined to the
coast, somewhat lacking upper-level support, and uncertainty on
storm mode/track. The 12Z HREF depicts a Mesoscale Convective System
(MCS) traversing through the I-10 corridor with a southward
extension offshore. Simulated reflectivity of this MCS takes on a
large bowing shape, which suggests that damaging winds would be the
main threat. Interestingly enough, the 18Z HRRR run shows more of a
QLCS storm mode that extends into southeast AL & southwest GA with a
concerning bowing structure. If the HRRR solution were to verify,
then the severe threat would cover a larger area with potential for
a couple tornadoes embedded within the main line of storms. Pockets
of heavy rainfall is a secondary concern, especially over the FL
Panhandle where a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive
Rainfall was introduced by WPC.
A brief lull in activity occurs overnight Saturday night before a
renewed wave of convection along/ahead of a cold front looks to
arrive from the west early Sunday morning. The potential of this
secondary batch is a bit in question as it will be somewhat
contingent on the state of the airmass in the wake of the primary
batch (i.e., cold pool/rain-cooled air). However, there is enough
support by a parent upper trough and cold front to believe the
potential in what the 18Z HRRR is advertising for early Sunday.
Bottom line: this weekend is shaping up to be active, so please be
weather aware, especially for those who are planning to be outdoors.
High temperatures are forecast to be range from the mid 70s to
around 80 with widespread mid 60s Sunday morning. A cooldown occurs
behind the front Sunday night into Monday morning when readings fall
to the upper 40s/lowish 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 404 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
At the beginning of the period, post-frontal conditions will be
present with predominantly northerly winds at 5-10 kts from Monday
morning to Wednesday morning. Partly to mostly clear skies will
persist throughout this time frame. On Monday afternoon, high
temperatures in the low to mid 70s are expected with increasing
temperatures throughout the week as an upper level ridge moves in.
Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s overnight. High
temperatures on Tuesday will peak into the low 80s with the help of
diurnal heating while lows remain in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid
to upper 80s are possible by the end of next week. Winds are
expected to be variable going into Wednesday afternoon before
shifting to southeasterly at 5-10 kts for the remainder of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
VFR conditions are expected through this evening. Fog is likely
to develop along the coast up to I-10 during the predawn hours,
affecting ECP, DHN, TLH, and VLD. Expect vsbys to fall to MVFR
around 09Z and perhaps IFR for ECP & TLH around 12z. All sites
should return to VFR by mid/late morning on Saturday. At the end
of this TAF period, showers and thunderstorms will be approaching
our western terminals bringing cigs down to MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 404 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Tranquil boating conditions prevail until late Saturday afternoon
and early Saturday evening when chances for thunderstorms
increase over the waters. These storms may pose a gusty wind and
waterspout threat. Another wave of convection is likely Sunday
morning ahead of a cold front. After frontal passage, northwest
breezes usher in advisory level conditions, particularly over the
western waters late Sunday night. Winds and seas relax early next
week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 404 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
High dispersions are expected on Saturday near the I-75 corridor
with good dispersions elsewhere. Southwesterly transport winds
around 10 mph with mixing heights of 3,500 to 5,500 feet will lead
to good to high dispersions area wide. A cold front approaches
Sunday, bringing a chance of wetting rain and maybe some strong to
severe thunderstorms. Dispersions outside of storms will be good.
After the front passes, Monday will be drier with near-critical
relative humidity in southeast Alabama. Dispersions will also be
high across the Florida zones with stronger northwesterly
transport winds and high mixing heights. Fire danger may be
elevated on Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 404 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
With a potential MCS rolling across the area Saturday night and more
storms possible Sunday, there is a threat of localized flash
flooding. Current rainfall forecasts call for 1-2 inches of rain
generally west of Tallahassee and along and south of I-10 with the
highest amounts near the Emerald Coast. If training of storms
occurs, or the possible MCS backbuilds, localized totals could reach
3 to 6 inches. The Panhandle and southeast Alabama have been
relatively wet recently, so these areas may be slightly more
susceptible to flash flooding should heavier rainfall materialize.
However, given the uncertainty in the evolution of the MCS and
possible second round of storms, confidence in rainfall totals and
flash flood risk is rather low.
With the rainfall falling in the Panhandle, rivers are generally
okay. The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce, however, is hovering around
action stage. If the heaviest rainfall remains along the coast or
offshore, then riverine concerns are not an issue. But, if heavier
rainfall falls farther inland, then there is about a 20% chance the
Choctawhatchee River could reach minor flood stage based on the
latest ensemble guidance. The Apalachicola River at Blountstown is
currently in action stage, but is expected to fall below action
stage and may be away from the heaviest rainfall. Again, with the
low confidence in placement of heavy rainfall, the river concerns
are a bit more uncertain at this time.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 58 86 66 79 / 0 20 30 70
Panama City 63 80 67 76 / 0 50 60 70
Dothan 56 83 65 76 / 0 30 40 70
Albany 56 83 65 78 / 0 10 30 70
Valdosta 58 85 65 78 / 0 10 20 60
Cross City 60 85 66 80 / 0 10 20 50
Apalachicola 65 77 68 73 / 0 40 50 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Haner
NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....SHB
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young