Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/12/23


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
608 PM MDT Tue Apr 11 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Another mild night is expected tonight with lows generally 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. Wednesday will be warm again with breezy to locally windy southerly winds and the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon in western NM. Wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph along with widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday and Friday. Cooler weather arrives late week, but a warming trend over the weekend will bring temperatures back above average. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Upper ridge lingering over NM into Wednesday, although winds aloft over the western portion of the state will become more southwesterly. A surface lee trough will strengthen Wednesday, leading to south to southwesterly breezy to locally windy conditions over the eastern plains in the afternoon. Highs Wednesday will be within a few degrees of today`s highs and about 5 to nearly 20 degrees warmer than average. Overnight lows will also be about 5-15 degrees warmer than normal. High based cumulus clouds developing over the western and southern high terrain likely won`t result in any precipitation this afternoon and evening, despite the isolated minuscule amounts suggested by the HRRR and NAM12. The low levels remain pretty dry so gusty winds would be more likely in the vicinity of any buildups. Increasing mid level moisture Wednesday along with afternoon heating is still indicated to produce isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, some of which may be dry with gusty winds, between the RGV and the AZ border and where SPC Day 2 general thunderstorm area is outlined. Convection persists into Wednesday evening but shifting focus into northwest and north central NM. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Recent guidance has trended slightly slower with the approaching trough. The development of a lee-side low in northeast Colorado will still generate southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across most of the state Thursday afternoon. The strongest winds will occur in the northeast where gusts up to 55 mph are possible. Model soundings show an increase in 400-700 mb layer moisture on Thursday afternoon in the eastern plains which could allow for the development of some isolated high based convection. Given dewpoint depressions in excess of 30C, localized gusty winds and dry lightning are more likely than wetting rains. The slower exit of the trough on Friday has also resulted in an increase in wind speeds on Friday afternoon behind the cold front. West to northwest wind gusts of 30-45 mph will be commonplace in central and eastern NM with gusts up to 55 mph possible along and immediately east of the central mountain chain. Some rain and snow showers are also possible in the northern NM on Friday afternoon with a trailing wave, but precipitation will be light and generally confined to the high terrain. Winds quickly diminish Friday after sunset and the exiting surface low will drive a fast-moving backdoor cold front southward across the eastern plains, dropping lows a few degrees below seasonal averages there. A building ridge over the weekend will bring about another warming trend. Depending on how far north the ridge moves, some return flow make sneak into eastern NM on Monday and Tuesday of next week, allowing for some afternoon thunderstorms to develop if a shortwave is able to sneak underneath the ridge as indicated by some models. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM MDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Isolated showers and thunderstorms over south central and southwest areas are forecast to diminish with sunset. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms, some with little or no rain, will develop west of the Rio Grande on Wednesday afternoon. Movement should generally be toward the northeast around 20-25 mph. Stronger cells will be capable of dry or mostly dry microbursts with wind gusts around 45 kt. Wednesday evening, showers, storms, and virga showers will favor northwest areas north of I-40. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Apr 11 2023 High based cumulus over the west and south this afternoon shouldn`t have much of an impact, if any, although an isolated buildup could produce localized gusty winds. The upper ridge starts to break down Wednesday but moreso Wednesday night and Thursday, as the incoming upper trough is now slower moving and potentially tracking slightly farther north. The mid level moisture advection continues Wednesday with afternoon heating to produce isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms between the AZ border and the RGV, some of which will be dry with gusty winds, given the dry low levels of the atmosphere. Isolated dry convection is also possible in far eastern New Mexico Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions are likely over northeast New Mexico Wednesday afternoon and over a larger area Thursday while temperatures remain around 5 to nearly 20 degrees above normal. Friday may see critical fire weather conditions as well over the central and east, although temperatures will be near to below normal. This weekend features high temperatures within about 5 degrees of normal and dry weather with gusty northwest winds on Saturday and breezy southwest winds Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 45 80 47 70 / 0 20 10 0 Dulce........................... 34 72 35 66 / 0 20 30 0 Cuba............................ 42 74 42 68 / 0 20 30 0 Gallup.......................... 39 76 39 66 / 0 20 5 0 El Morro........................ 38 73 39 64 / 5 30 10 0 Grants.......................... 39 77 38 70 / 0 20 10 0 Quemado......................... 41 75 41 67 / 0 20 5 0 Magdalena....................... 48 76 47 70 / 0 20 10 0 Datil........................... 42 73 42 66 / 0 20 5 0 Reserve......................... 43 79 41 71 / 0 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 51 83 50 75 / 0 10 0 0 Chama........................... 32 67 33 59 / 0 20 30 5 Los Alamos...................... 45 74 45 67 / 0 10 10 0 Pecos........................... 44 75 44 68 / 0 10 10 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 38 71 41 64 / 0 10 10 0 Red River....................... 32 63 34 57 / 0 10 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 29 66 34 59 / 0 10 10 5 Taos............................ 36 76 40 69 / 0 5 10 0 Mora............................ 40 73 41 67 / 0 5 5 5 Espanola........................ 43 81 46 75 / 0 5 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 45 75 46 69 / 0 10 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 44 78 45 72 / 0 10 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 79 51 75 / 0 10 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 81 52 76 / 0 10 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 83 51 79 / 0 10 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 81 50 77 / 0 10 10 0 Belen........................... 47 84 49 79 / 0 10 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 82 50 78 / 0 10 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 47 83 50 79 / 0 10 10 0 Corrales........................ 49 82 51 78 / 0 10 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 47 83 50 79 / 0 10 10 0 Placitas........................ 49 79 50 74 / 0 10 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 49 81 50 77 / 0 10 10 0 Socorro......................... 51 85 51 80 / 0 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 74 46 68 / 0 10 10 0 Tijeras......................... 47 76 47 71 / 0 10 10 0 Edgewood........................ 44 77 45 72 / 0 10 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 42 78 43 73 / 0 5 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 44 75 44 69 / 0 5 5 0 Mountainair..................... 46 76 47 71 / 0 5 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 46 76 48 71 / 0 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 52 79 54 75 / 0 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 47 72 48 68 / 0 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 43 78 44 71 / 0 5 0 5 Raton........................... 39 81 40 74 / 0 5 0 0 Springer........................ 40 83 43 76 / 0 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 43 77 43 71 / 0 5 5 0 Clayton......................... 49 85 51 78 / 0 0 0 10 Roy............................. 45 81 48 74 / 0 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 49 88 52 82 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 48 85 49 78 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 51 87 53 81 / 0 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 48 84 50 81 / 0 0 0 20 Portales........................ 49 86 51 84 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 50 86 51 81 / 0 5 0 5 Roswell......................... 52 89 54 88 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 50 83 51 79 / 0 5 0 0 Elk............................. 48 78 49 76 / 0 0 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ104-123. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-106-109-123>126. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
848 PM MDT Tue Apr 11 2023 .UPDATE... Updated forecast to cancel the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory for western areas, as winds have been decreasing and will continue to do so through the night. At 02Z, the cold front was entering the far northern tier of the forecast area, as evidenced by a shift to northerly winds with a drop in temps and rise in dewpoints. Radar showed a few showers NW of the forecast area with a few echoes over the SW mountains. Clouds were increasing in Judith Gap per webcams. The showers to the NW were light per the ob at KLWT and the webcam there. Models had the front dropping S through most of the area overnight. Front appears to get hung up around the Beartooth/Red Lodge Foothills by morning due to an inverted trough originating from low pressure over WY. The trough will help to focus more precipitation over the area on Wednesday. For tonight, models are mainly dry, with moisture hanging back over NW and W parts of the area behind the surface front, closer to the jet. Noted the HRRR tried to bring a line of precipitation through the central part of the area later tonight, but other models and inherited PoPs kept the precip. NW and W of KBIL, which seemed reasonable. No other changes to forecasts or the ongoing Winter Storm Watch or Flood Advisories. Arthur && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday... Winds continue to be gusty this afternoon, especially from Billings, west. Emigrant has seen gusts as high as 62 mph with Livingston up to 58 mph. These winds will be coming down through the late afternoon and evening when a cold front ends the wind threat. Given the potential for continued mix down through the afternoon and into the evening, have left the wind highlights in place. The pattern will will turn cooler and wetter through midweek behind the cold front tonight. Models continues to show a lag in the precipitation arriving later in the day Wednesday. Models have become consistent with how wet the trough will be through Thursday. Given the uncertainty over the last few days, will give the models one more run to see if the trends continue before upgrading to warnings in the Winter Storm Watch area. Snow amounts in the east have come down a little from Billings eastward. Still expecting 6 to 10 inches in the western foothills, with the Crazy Mountains with good upslope flow into the terrain expecting 1 to 2 feet. On the hydrological front, with the warm temperatures today, will continue to see a response in area waterways as the snowmelt works out of the mountains, but with the cooler temperatures through the rest of the week, this should slow down, reducing any minor flooding concerns. Reimer Friday through Tuesday... Wet and unsettled weather will continue into Friday this week. The main trough will begin to exit the region Thursday night, but an embedded shortwave within the exiting trough will move through the region on Friday. This wave will mainly bring snow to the mountains (50-60% chance for another 2 inches). However, lower elevations will still have a chance (30-50%) for rain/snow showers, especially if the mid- week system evolves into the slower and deeper solution. This could create a difficult Friday morning commute. By Friday night, heights will begin to increase as a ridge approaches from the west for the weekend. Overall, skies will clear on Saturday allowing things to dry out a bit, however there is still a chance for some shallow diurnal showers mostly in the east Saturday afternoon. By Sunday and Monday, our weather will be dry and warm under a ridging pattern. High temperatures Friday will be in the 40s before warming into the 50s Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday will be above normal again with highs in the 60s and potentially lower 70s, with Monday being the warmest. By Tuesday, the ridge axis will pass through our region opening the door for precipitation chances once again mid next week. Arends && .AVIATION... Strong southwest winds will gust 40-50kts at KLVM, K6S0, and K3HT, this afternoon and early this evening. A frontal passage will move through the area mid to late evening (02-05z at KLVM. KBIL and KMLS), then after 06z at KSHR. The front will provide northwest gusts of 30-35kts, eventually switching to the northeast. A few weak showers will develop along the cold front and push across the area with the front. The showers will be weak with only light rain expected, accompanied be gusty winds. otherwise, VFR conditions are expected the remainder of the afternoon and tonight. TWH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 041/055 035/042 031/046 029/057 034/066 042/071 042/066 12/R 89/O 64/O 10/U 00/U 01/B 24/R LVM 036/051 032/039 028/043 027/052 032/062 038/063 037/059 24/O 99/S 65/S 10/U 00/U 12/R 34/R HDN 038/056 035/047 030/045 027/056 029/066 036/072 038/068 13/R 78/O 74/O 11/U 00/U 01/B 23/R MLS 041/056 037/045 032/043 029/053 030/063 037/070 041/066 02/R 66/O 74/O 11/U 00/U 01/B 22/R 4BQ 042/061 040/054 033/044 029/054 031/065 037/071 042/069 00/B 23/R 53/O 11/U 00/U 01/U 22/R BHK 039/056 035/044 030/041 027/050 028/058 032/064 036/062 01/B 34/O 65/S 11/B 00/U 01/U 22/R SHR 036/057 029/049 026/042 023/051 027/061 034/068 036/065 01/B 35/O 65/S 21/U 00/U 01/B 23/R && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening FOR ZONES 40-63-68-172-228. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 ...Aviation Update... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Key Messages: - Dry, windy, and warm conditions will result in critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for much of western and north central Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns exist on Thursday due to continued warm, dry, and windy conditions. - Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Even though the severe potential remains low, the greatest impact will come from the potential for dry lighting and damaging winds within any strong storms that do develop. - Widespread rain showers continue Friday into Saturday with a rain/snow mix possible across northwestern Nebraska Friday night. - Dry and tranquil conditions return with temperatures warming back into the above normal range this weekend into early next week. Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a cyclone off the Pacific coast of British Columbia (BC). Further downstream an upper-level trough was located off the coast of the Baja Peninsula. A strong ridge was evident across the southern Rockies extending northeastward across the Central Plains. Further southeast of this feature, a positively upper-level trough was situated across the Texas and Louisiana border with cyclonic flow extending across much of the mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains. At the surface, a leeside trough was apparent across Colorado with broad surface ridging of high pressure across the Tennessee Valley. Gusty southwesterly winds have developed in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient (SPG) between the two surface features with recent observations of around 30 to 35 mph across much of the area and peak gusts of near 45 mph across the northern Sandhills. Efficient mixing has led to warming across the area with temperatures ranging from 84 degrees at Broken Bow to 89 degrees at Valentine as of 3 PM CT. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska through this evening. See Fire Weather Discussion for more information. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Tonight...Overnight lows will remain well-above the seasonal normal in the 40s and 50s. Gusty southwesterly winds with gusts of 25 to 30 mph will continue through the night. These gusty winds will subside some for a brief period early Wednesday morning before increasing again and bringing another windy day to western and north central Nebraska on Wednesday. Wednesday...As the aforementioned upper-level trough off the shore of BC pushes and deepens on shore of the PNW on Wednesday, broad upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS. This will lead to another dry and warm day for western and north central Nebraska on Wednesday. Abundant warm air advection (WAA) of H85 temperatures in the 20 to 27 C range will keep surface temperatures on the warmer side of guidance. These summer-like temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s with some area readings of 90 degrees expected. This anomalously warm event is further supported by the NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble suggesting that the mean temperature at H85-5 will meet or exceed the 97th climatological percentile. These warm temperatures will promote afternoon humidity values falling as low as 10 percent. These critically low relative humidity values will combine with the continued gusty southerly winds due to the continue SPG across the area. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be common across the area during the day into the evening on Wednesday. All of this combined will result in critical fire weather conditions across western and north central Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for much of western and north central Nebraska from noon to 7PM CDT. See Fire Weather Discussion for further information. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening across the Panhandle into the northwestern Sandhills ahead of the deepening mid-level trough across the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Although the flow aloft does increase supporting moderate bulk shear (Effective Shear 30 to 40kts), limited surface moisture will limit buoyancy which limits the severe potential. A few elevated storms are also possible given the strong WAA from the strengthening low-level jet (LLJ) across the area. Wednesday night...The gusty winds increase even further Wednesday night as a result from the aforementioned strengthening LLJ across the area. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be common across northwestern Nebraska into the northern Sandhills with the strongest gusts of 30 to 45 mph will be felt across southwestern and portions of north central Nebraska. In regards to lows, western and north central Nebraska will see 20 to 25 degrees above the seasonal normal for early April in the upper 40s to mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Thursday and Thursday night...The aforementioned upper-level trough will cross the Intermountain West Wednesday night into Thursday. This will force a cold front to drop southeast across the region on Thursday stalling out across the northwestern half of the forecast area. Lee troughing will also deepen across the central and southern High Plains, with surface cyclogenesis anticipated over northeastern Colorado near the stalled front. Model solutions vary on the timing of the frontal passage leading to a challenging temperature forecast for Thursday. This is highlighted by large standard deviations of 5 to near 13 degrees for the northern half of the forecast area. However, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for Max Temperature has a value of 0.8, which suggests high model confidence in continued anomalously warm temperatures on Thursday. Given this, will continue to trend towards the warmer side of guidance for Thursday`s high temperatures. Daytime highs are forecast to range from the upper 60s to low 70s across the northwestern Sandhills with areas elsewhere seeing temperatures in the 80s to near 90 degrees across southwestern Nebraska. These warm temperatures will promote afternoon humidity values to fall below 20 percent on Thursday. Strong southerly winds continue due to the tightened SPG across the area with gusts increasing to 25 to 30 mph across the western and northern Sandhills with the strongest gusts in excess of 40 mph expected across north central and southwestern Nebraska. All of this combined will create elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns for Thursday. The aforementioned surface low will move eastward into western Kansas and Nebraska Thursday night. The LLJ strengthens again which will lead to vigorous WAA across the front. Low-level moisture will remain rather limited, however, increasing mid-level moisture combined with strong WAA will support isolated thunderstorms across western and north central Nebraska. A narrow band of mixed-layer CAPE of 500 to 1200 J/kg combined with effective-bulk shear values exceeding 40kts and sufficient low-level lapse rates may even support an isolated severe storm or two. Dry lightning and gusty downburst winds will be greatest impacts from the strongest storms that do develop, though hail up to 1 inch cannot be ruled out. Temperatures cool Thursday night as the front sweeps across the area bringing lows back into the mid 30s and 40s across northwestern Nebraska to the 50s across southwestern Nebraska. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the night on Thursday. Friday and Saturday...Lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms continue into Friday morning. A very brief lull of precipitation is expected late Friday morning before the next disturbance treks across the area bringing widespread rain showers back into the region. A narrow band of weak CAPE values of ~500 J/kg sets up for areas east of Highway 83 which may be able to support some rumbles of thunder during the day on Friday. Given the lack of instability, the severe potential remains very low. Precipitation will gradually track eastward on Friday before exiting the area on Saturday. Cold air quickly encompasses the area in the wake of the departing system Saturday morning bringing a chance for some rain/snow mix or some very wet snowflakes to locations west of Highway 83. No impacts are expected with any of the mixed precipitation as temperatures on Saturday will quickly warm into the 50s. While this system will bring a good opportunity for rainfall, coverage will favor being scattered. Current QPF amounts range from a few hundreths of an inch across southwestern Nebraska to around a quarter of an inch for portions of north central Nebraska. Confidence at this range in the forecast remains rather low, especially given the spread amongst model solutions. Regardless, Thursday night through Saturday morning appears the best chance for wetting moisture across western and north central Nebraska. Sunday and beyond...Weak upper-level ridging and surface high pressure returns to bring dry and warm conditions back to western and north central Nebraska. Temperatures warm to above normal into the 70s by Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Low-level wind shear will be of concern tonight across portions of southwest through north central Nebraska. Otherwise gusty south winds at the surface will diminish some later tonight. VFR conditions will prevail all areas with south winds gusty again Wednesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 For this evening and tonight, strong southerly wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will continue through through the late evening before subsiding some after sunset. As of 3PM CT, several active wildfires have been reported across the area. Recent area observations show locations across western and north central Nebraska seeing relative humidity values fallen into the teens with some sites seeing relative humidities as low as 5 percent. Poor relative humidity recovery is anticipated tonight with values only rising to near 50 to 60 percent. For Wednesday, warm temperatures continue on Wednesday with highs in the 80s to near 90 degrees across western and north central Nebraska. These anomalously warm temperatures will promote minimum humidity values to fall as low as 15 percent. This combined with south wind gusts up to 35 mph will result in another day of critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for Fire Weather Zones 206, 209, 210, and 219 from 1 to 7 PM CT. Though minimum relative humidity values bottom out into the teens across the western and northern Sandhills (Fire Weather Zones 204 and 208), lighter wind gusts at 20 mph or less will limit overall fire weather concerns for those areas. For Thursday, elevated fire weather concerns exist with near- critical concerns for areas south of I-80, including Fire Weather Zones 210 and 219. The lowest relative humidity values and strongest winds will be seen across southwestern Nebraska. However, variations with the timing of the cold front forecasted to cross the area continues to lead to some uncertainty in the extent of the fire weather concerns. Isolated thunderstorms are expected Thursday evening across much of western and north central Nebraska. Dry lightning and gusty downburst winds will be greatest impacts from any strong storms that do develop. For Friday and beyond, as the cold front sweeps across the area, an abrupt wind shift from the south to the north is anticipated early Friday morning. Winds will remain strong with gusts in excess of 40 mph possible, however, widespread rain showers and cooler temperatures will promote an increase in relative humidities above critical thresholds. This will result in limited fire weather concerns for Friday into the weekend. Total rainfall amounts are expected to be light from a tenth to a quarter inch, although higher amounts of a half inch are possible. This will be the best potential for wetting moisture across western and north central Nebraska the next 7 days. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Wednesday for NEZ206-209-210-219. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Viken SHORT TERM...Viken LONG TERM...Viken AVIATION...Taylor FIRE WEATHER...Viken