Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/11/23


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1014 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 Key Messages: - Warm, dry conditions remain for much of the week. High and low temperatures Wed-Thurs look to challenge record values. - Elevated fire weather concerns still remain through Thursday, with low relative humidity values expected. Wednesday will be a day to watch, with the combination of warm/dry conditions and gusty winds. - Precipitation chances look to move into the area Friday and through the weekend. Tuesday... With mostly sunny skies and southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph, temperatures will likely once again be higher than the NBM. As a result, went with NBM 75th percentile for high temperatures. This will result in high temperatures ranging from the mid-70s to around 80. This would be closer to the MOS guidance. Tuesday night through Thursday... There still appears to be little change in the expected forecast through this period, as ridging builds east ahead of an upper level trough moving into the coastal Pacific northwest. High confidence remains in dry conditions, with above normal temperatures for this time of the month. NAEFS guidance continues to show 850 mb mean temperatures in the 97 to 99th percentiles Wednesday into Thursday. This will allow high temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s and lows in the 50s, with a couple high max and min temperature records possibly being challenged at both KLSE and KRST. Increased southwest winds, with gusts nearing 30 to 35 mph looks possible on Wednesday. This, with the dry/warm conditions, may lead to elevated fire weather conditions. For more details, please see the fire weather discussion below. Friday through early next week... The aforementioned trough is expected to progress eastward into the central U.S. through the weekend, which looks to bring an end to our dry and unseasonably warm stretch. There are still some details being worked out between ensemble solutions on the progression and strength of the low pressure system. However, guidance continues to point to precipitation chances increasing late Friday and into the weekend. As mentioned previously, potential for severe weather looks low with more favorable conditions looking possible further south of the area right now. The spread in temperatures start to increase quite a bit over the weekend and into early next week. However, trends point to a decrease in temperatures to near-normal values, with chances for below-normal temperatures as well. With cooler overnight temperatures, a few ECMWF and GEFS members show the potential for a bit of snow to mix in Sunday night. With the large spread in temperatures, will continue with the blended guidance which shows this mixed potential for now. Expect forecast refinements as the && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1009 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 VFR conditions through the TAF period with variable mid and high level clouds. The RAP was hinting at some lower clouds trying to spread northeast into Iowa, so can keep a metwatch on these. South to southwest winds 5 to 15kts with light winds tonight increasing for Tuesday with stronger gusts. A low level jet increases Tuesday night and low level wind shear may need to be added after 03Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 Deep mixing conditions (850-825 mb) are expected through Thursday. This will result in afternoon dew points ranging from 35 to 45F on Tuesday and in the mid- and upper 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. The combination of these dew points and high temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s will result in relative humidities ranging from 25 to 40 percent. If we happen to mix deeper than expected, these relative humidities could potentially fall to around 20 percent. This will maintain the elevated fire weather concerns with the highest concern for possible red flag conditions being Wednesday. As noted above, this will be the warmest day and also have the strongest winds. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph look probable that day. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 With the latest models continuing to support a warmup this week, a rapid increase in the snowmelt should occur across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. The runoff from this will get fed into tributaries of the Mississippi River and eventually into the mainstem of the river. Due to the drought leading into the winter, there is uncertainty in the river models on how much of the snowmelt the soils will absorb versus becoming runoff into the rivers. Based on current conditions and the weather forecast over the next several days, local locations along the mainstem of the Mississippi River may begin to experience flooding on or after April 14th. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne/EMS AVIATION...Zapotocny FIRE WEATHER...Boyne HYDROLOGY...04/JAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
956 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 No major changes are needed with this update. Opted to remove the patchy fog mention from north central North Dakota given upstream and overhead high clouds, and rapid-refresh guidance is trending away from this potential. Used RAP 300 mb RH guidance to try to get a better handle on the sky cover forecast. UPDATE Issued at 711 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 No significant forecast changes are needed with this update. Thick high clouds cooled temperatures during the late afternoon, especially where snow pack exists. The sky cover forecast was increased this evening to account for observations and trends. A few degrees were added to the high temperature forecast for tomorrow at locations that have exhibited a spatial high bias compared to surrounding areas the past couple days, such as Jamestown, Bismarck, and Hettinger, the latter of which has a realistic chance of reaching 90 degrees tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 Main highlight of the short term forecast is seasonably warm temperatures, especially across southwest North Dakota. Broad ridging aloft continued to build on top of a high centered over the Four Corners Region, while a trough began to deepen off the coast of British Columbia. An embedded shortwave rounding the top of the ridge brought widespread high stratus to the area today, but strong low-level warm air advection was still boosting temperatures much warmer than what we`ve seen lately, especially across southwest North Dakota where 1930 UTC temperatures were in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Elsewhere across the area, this warm air aloft still has plenty of snow on the ground to compete with, keeping temperatures anywhere from the upper 30s to the upper 50s. Quiet tonight, with lows around freezing east to the mid 40s southwest. Some high-res guidance shows reduced visibilities across the north central overnight tonight, so did go ahead and add in patchy fog for this area. Tuesday will be the warmest day for many places since the fall as the ridge axis moves overhead and 850mb temperatures warm to around 18 to 20 C, which is incredibly warm for mid April. This translates to forecast highs in the lower 80s in southwest North Dakota, with 70s across the northwest into the north central, and parts of the south central. Lowest confidence is in forecast highs for the Bismarck area, as the NBM 25/75th percentile temperature spread is still quite high, especially compared to cities across the north and west. The uncertainty comes from the existing snowpack, where there will be a sharp gradient between near normal temperatures to the east and much above normal temperatures to the west, with that line setting up on the edge of the snowpack. How much we melt off today across central North Dakota will strongly influence how warm we can get on Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 The extended period is highlighted by a return to cooler than normal temperatures, and an active pattern through the end of the week. As the previously discussed upper trough moves ashore into the Pacific NW and the ridge axis flattens and moves into the Great Lakes region, flow across the Dakotas will turn southwesterly and promote an active patten. Blended guidance favors an initial wave cutting southwest to central across the forecast area Wednesday night through Thursday, bringing a cold front and a chance for showers, although precipitation amounts are not likely to be significant. NBM 12-hour probabilities of at least 0.10" of QPF are around 45 percent in the west-central, dropping to 30 percent across the central. Temperatures will drop significantly for the rest of the week in the wake of the cold front moving through during the day Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and then cool a bit further into the upper 30s to upper 40s for Thursday and Friday. As the trough base moves over the Northern Rockies and into the region, a secondary wave will bring another round of precipitation late Thursday through Friday. This will be more focused over the south central and James River Valley, although again the chance of impactful precipitation amounts is limited, with NBM 12-hour probabilities of at least 0.10" maximized around 40 percent. Looking at the entire 72-hour period, probabilities for at least 0.25" of QPF is around 50 to 60% for areas along and south of Highway 2. So certainly there is potential for modest QPF amounts, but with the two separate waves each bringing precipitation, we are not expecting any heavy enough showers in a short enough time that would lead to rapid snowmelt and overland flooding. The one caveat is the potential for any of these showers to be convective, which could bring locally higher rainfall amounts. For now, instability looks to be limited to areas east of our southeast counties, but will be something to keep an eye on. Generally thinking that daytime precipitation will be rain, with a transition to snow overnight for some locations, although any accumulations would be light. Precipitation is expected to taper off from west to east on Saturday, with skies clearing as well. Temperatures this weekend and into next week are expected to generally be near normal west to below normal east. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 711 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light winds this evening through tonight will become south to southwest around 10-15 kts on Tuesday. A brief period of low level wind shear exists at KBIS Tuesday morning. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan SHORT TERM...Jones LONG TERM...Jones AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1014 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure south of the region will allow temperatures to continue to warm into Tuesday with strengthening southwest winds and dry conditions. A weak Canadian cold front will drop through the region on Tuesday night which will drop temperatures a few degrees for the day on Wednesday under gusty northwest winds. A significant warm up is expected to end the week with some areas seeing their first 80 degree day of the year before a low pressure system approaches the region this weekend with increasing chances for showers and somewhat lower temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 10pm Update...Warm temperatures lasted a bit after sunset, with radiational cooling taking off mid evening. Sfc inversion is well in place across the mountains and to KGYX where it can be seen just forming on the 00z RAOB. MOS guidance was used to account for rapidly cooling temps until about midnight when high cloud should move across the CWA. The added high cloud will at least stunt temp fall for the mountains and foothills, with the interior and coast catching up (down) for temp decline. Locations above this sfc inversion may the warmer locations come Tuesday morning, with warm air sitting just off the surface. 6:30pm Update: Today`s forecast remains largely on track. Blended in some HRRR to the overnight temperatures, as the forecast is running a little warmer than expected due to strong daytime heating. A weak surface trough is still expected to slide into the region, providing some cloud cover and perhaps an isolated shower or two tomorrow along the Canadian border. Previous Discussion... High Impact Weather Potential: None. Pattern: Shortwave ridge axis overhead will shift south and east of the region tonight as a weak surface trough drops through the region tonight with some high cloudiness spreading overhead while the gradient strengthens aloft. Other than the increase in clouds the biggest forecast story tonight will be warmer temperatures which is our primary forecast focus for tonight. Through this evening: Mostly clear skies and light west winds with mild temperatures only falling back into the upper 40s to lower 50s by 8pm...about 10 degrees above where they were yesterday at that time. Tonight: Moisture-starved shortwave trough will drop towards northern New England tonight spreading some mid and upper level cloudiness overhead as a weak surface trough drops through the region. The biggest change overnight will be much warmer temperatures given the cloudiness...warmer airmass overhead...and strengthening low level gradient. Given some residual llevel mixing...followed closer to NBM overnight lows...which reach the upper 30s to lower 40s...20F warmer than the previous night in some spots. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High Impact Weather Potential: Near Critical to Critical Fire Weather Conditions. Pattern: Low pressure over James Bay Tuesday morning will move east through the day with high pressure centered south of the region. Thus...a warm and dry westerly flow will continue across the area with our primary forecast focus being on temperatures and the potential for elevated fire danger. Tuesday: Aforementioned low pressure system north of the area will squeeze the gradient overhead with high pressure still over the southern United States. Weak warm advection will continue to push warmer air overhead...but the bigger story will be the winds, with H9 winds increasing to 30kts and deep mixing allowing for some surface gusts to reach over 30 mph. Any moisture return ahead of the cold front will be slow to arrive...which will lead to elevated fire danger for some locations /see fire weather section below/. Towards the Canadian border...approaching cold front may bring a few showers before day/s end...but the very dry antecedent airmass should greatly limit any precipitation. Tuesday Night: Another northern stream cold front arrives Tuesday evening crossing the region overnight. This feature will not have access to much moisture...but a modest plume of PWATs in excess of 0.75" will combine with robust mid level forcing to bring some showers into the mountains through the evening before drier and cooler air moves in overnight as gusty west winds shift northwesterly. Lows will fall back into the mid 30s in the mountains...but with the cooler air only slowly arriving... southern zones will only fall into the mid and upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... N Hemisphere 500 MB pattern is forecast to transition to a series of moderate;y amplifies omega blocks stretching from the E Pacific all the way into Europe. Some good news is that we see to be situated in a ridge through the extended and into the weekend, which means mainly dry and above normal conditions right through the weekend, with really the first chance of showers not showing up Saturday night. Wed will be cooler than Tuesday as we get some cooler air behind the cold front, but it will still be above normal with highs 50-55 in the mtns and in the 60s S, although it will be breezy. Thu and Friday look to be the warmest as W-NW flow aloft brings warm air from the W over the top of the ridge. Highs Thu will be in the 70s across NH, pushing 80 in the S, while it will be in the mid 60s to 70s in ME, coolest near the coast and in the mtns. Friday will be even warmer with highs upper 60s to low 70s in the mtns and mid 70s to low 80s in the S although maybe closer to 70 on the coast due to sea breeze. There’s a little bit of a wave that bumps into the ridge Fri night and Saturday, which may produce more in the way of clouds and slightly cooler temps on Saturday, but highs will still be in the 60s and 70s. The closed 500 M154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Arnott NEAR TERM...Arnott/Cornwell/Palmer SHORT TERM...Arnott LONG TERM...Cempa AVIATION...Arnott/Cempa MARINE...Arnott/Cempa FIRE WEATHER...Arnott
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
707 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 Key Messages: - Gusty southwest winds combining with afternoon humidity values as low as 10 percent will result in critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska. See Fire Weather Discussion for more information. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions exist on Wednesday across southwestern Nebraska. - Record high temperatures may be broken or tied on Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures climb into the 80s with some locations nearing 90 degrees. - A late week storm system will bring cooler temperature and precipitation chances to western and north central Nebraska. Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed an upper- level trough was noted off the coast of the Baja Peninsula. Further northeast of this feature, a broad upper-level ridge was located across the Desert Southwest extending across the much of the western CONUS into the Central and Southern Plains. An upper- level shortwave trough was evident across southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma. At the surface, low pressure was situated across eastern Kansas. Clear skies and tranquil conditions have encompassed western and north central Nebraska. At 2PM CT, temperatures ranged from 69 degrees at Gordon to 72 degrees at North Platte. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 A leeside surface trough will develop near the Front Range tonight. This will lead to south-southwest winds increasing overnight with gusts up to 25 mph in response to a tightening pressure gradient between the aforementioned leeside surface trough and broad surface high pressure situated across the Tennessee Valley. Quiet conditions will continue overnight with low temperatures being in the above normal range in the low to mid 40s under clear skies. As the surface high pressure strengthens and pushes further west, the pressure gradient tightens even further across the area leading to continued gusty southwesterly winds on Tuesday. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common across western and north central Nebraska though a localized gust up to 45 mph cannot be ruled out. This is highlighted by the HREF ensemble which is emphasized by a 50 to 60% Probability of Exceedance of a 45 mph Wind Gust across portions of the northern Sandhills into portions of north central Nebraska. These gusty winds under clear skies will result in efficient mixing with southwesterly flow leading to summer-like temperatures knocking on our front door on Tuesday. Record threatening temperatures are expected across the area with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s with some locations across northern Sandhills seeing 90 degrees. The signal for an anomalously warm event is supported by both the NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance suggesting that the mean temperature at H85-5 will meet or exceed the 99th climatological percentile. Overnight lows on Tuesday may even threaten the maximum low temperature records for areas east of Highway 83. Lows in the 50s to near 60 degrees will be common for areas east of Highway 83 with lows in the 40s for areas west under clear skies. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 An upper-level trough will push onshore of the PNW on Wednesday with broad upper-level ridging persisting across much of the central and southern CONUS. This will lead to another dry and warm day for western and north central Nebraska on Wednesday. Highs will climb into the 80s with readings of 90 expected for some locations across southwestern Nebraska. Similarly to Tuesday, the NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble continue to paint this anomalously warm event suggesting that the mean temperature at H85-5 will meet or exceed the 90th climatological percentile. In terms of fire weather concerns for Wednesday, minimum relative humidity values fall into critical thresholds across the western Sandhills into southwestern Nebraska leading to elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions. However, west southwest winds will remain light with peak gusts at 20 mph or less keeping the threat of critical fire weather conditions fairly low. Stronger southwest winds will be felt across areas east of Highway 83 with gusts up to 30 mph. However, minimum relative humidity values will be above 20 percent limiting fire weather concerns for those locations. The aforementioned upper-level trough will cross the intermountain west Wednesday night into Thursday. This will force a cold front to drop southeast across the region on Thursday stalling out across the northwestern half of the forecast area. Model solutions vary on just how far the front will push across the area leading to a challenging temperature forecast for Thursday. A decent temperature gradient will set up across the forecast area with a near 25 degree spread from far northwest to southeast Nebraska. Areas behind the front across the western and northern Sandhills, will likely see temperatures fall into the 60s to low 70s. In contrast, areas ahead of the front across southwestern and north central Nebraska, will see temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly winds will back towards the northeast with cold air advection (CAA) increasing behind the FROPA. In addition to CAA overspreading the area, precipitation chances increase Thursday night behind the advancing cold front and upper-level trough. Temperatures support rain being the predominate precipitation type for a majority of the area. However, overnight lows fall around or below freezing Thursday and Friday night for the Pine Ridge area into the western Sandhills which would support a transition to rain/snow mix and/or a brief snow shower. This is supported by WPC highlighting portions of the western Sandhills of seeing a 10 to 30 percent Probability of Melted Snow >0.25" for both Day 5 and 6. Confidence remains low in seeing impacts associated with any snow that does reach the ground given daytime highs on Friday and Saturday will climb into the 40s and 50s. Precipitation chances linger through Saturday evening before a return to dry conditions for Sunday. While this system will bring a good opportunity for rainfall, coverage will favor being scattered. WPC`s QPF amounts range from 0.25" to 0.75" with the potential of 1" for some locations east of Highway 183. Confidence at this range in the forecast remains rather low in regards to rainfall amounts, especially given the spread amongst model solutions, however, expect the spread to narrow with subsequent forecasts. Regardless, Thursday night through Saturday evening has the best potential for wetting moisture to be seen across portions of western and north central Nebraska. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 708 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 Expect mostly clear skies over the next 24 hours at the KLBF and KVTN terminals. Some scattered high clouds around 25000 FT AGL will persist overnight. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 KTS tonight, increasing late Tuesday morning to 15 to 25 KTS with some gusts to 30 KTS by afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 For Tuesday, gusty southwest winds up to 35 mph combining with temperatures warming into the 80s to near 90 degrees will promote afternoon humidity values falling as low as 10 percent. This will result in critical fire weather conditions across western and north central Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for all fire zones from noon to 9PM CDT. For Wednesday, temperatures warm into the 80s across western and north central Nebraska. These warm temperatures will promote minimum humidity values to fall into the teens. With these warm temperatures and low minimum humidity values combined with southwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph, elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns exist for Wednesday. For Thursday, elevated fire weather concerns exist with near-critical concerns for areas south of I-80. A cold front will cross the area during the day on Thursday bringing gusty southerly winds. There is still variations in just how far south the front will track which leads to some uncertainty in the extent of the elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. For Thursday night and beyond, cooler weather should allow minimum relative humidity values to increase above critical levels which should lessen overall fire weather concerns. Additionally, precipitation chances increase Thursday night through Saturday evening bringing the potential for wetting moisture to portions of western and north central Nebraska. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 Record highs may be tied to broken on Tuesday and Wednesday as an anomalously strong upper ridge begins to break down as an upper trough moves into the western U.S. Here is the record highs and (forecast highs) Tuesday and Wednesday for the four climate sites: Tuesday Wednesday North Platte 87 (85) 87 (85) Valentine 87 (91) 88 (83) Broken Bow 90 (82) 85 (83) Imperial 86 (86) 88 (86) && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Viken SHORT TERM...Viken LONG TERM...Viken AVIATION...Buttler FIRE WEATHER...Viken CLIMATE...Viken/Roberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
636 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 Latest satellite data indicates broken areas of CU across much of the forecast area. A weak surface trough exists across central Arkansas. Latest HRRR output produces a few light showers/sprinkles late this afternoon across this area. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected during this period, along with a warming trend. Afternoon temperatures will be noticeably above normal by the end of this forecast period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 A stationary cut-off upper low is anticipated to be invof Srn LA/SErn TX with a surface low just off the LA coast to begin the long term period. Additional features of noteworthiness will be an upper trough located over the PAC NW with a blocking upper ridge along the Srn Appalachians. On Thursday the aforementioned closed low will begin to lift NEwrd in response to the deepening trough invof the Four Corners region and a retreat of the ridge near the Appalachians, prompting slightly to chance PoPs over the SErn half of AR. QPF amounts will generally be light, with rainfall around a quarter inch or less. By Friday the trough will eject into the Cntrl Rockies spurring surface cyclogenesis. A trailing cold front is anticipated to extend back to the SW of the surface low into the Srn Plains. PoP chances will increase locally going into Saturday with the passage of the cold front. Calmer conditions will return into Sunday as high pressure settles into the region. As of now, the threat for severe weather on Saturday appears low, largely due to the fact that upper forcing will be modest and best moisture should remain over Srn portions of the state into MS and LA. Still plenty of time between now and then to monitor trends. This will be our next decent chance of rainfall across a large part of AR. Temperatures through the period will moderate from the low/mid 70s for highs to upper 70s/lower 80s by Saturday. Highs on Sunday will be slightly cooler with readings climbing into the lower 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows will largely be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with the warmest overnight lows occurring on Saturday morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 VFR conds wl prevail thru the PD. Good bit of mid and high level clouds wl gradually dissipate later this evening. Light and variable winds overnight, wl bcm E/SE at 5 to 10 mph on Tue. && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
923 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 Low clouds dissipated very quickly this evening with only a few hints of them remaining across Deep East Texas into portions of Northeast Louisiana. Likewise expansive cirrus across most of our region is thinning across our western third as well so for the forecast update...did adjust sky grids to account for the more scattering out of cloud cover. Hourly temperatures were running near to slightly below forecast values so made this change in the hourly diurnal temperature curve but otherwise, no additional changes were necessary to the forecast. Update out shortly...13. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 The latest RAP mid-level analysis indicates a broad trough extending from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Valley and eastward to the mid- Atlantic. Meanwhile, a deep ridge extends from the Desert Southwest into the Intermountain West. At the surface, a 1035mb high is centered off the mid-Atlantic and extends westward across the Tennessee Valley and into the ArkLaTex. The surface high is allowing for a dry pattern in place as high cirrus passes with scattered to broken cumulus across much of the area. Tonight into Tuesday night, there is GFS/ECMWF/NAM agreement that a closed low will develop at the base of the broad mid-level trough along the TX/LA border early on Tuesday. This feature will slowly slide southward to the Gulf coast by Tuesday night. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure will keep its stronghold northeast of the area, becoming more centered over the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday night. A surface trough will begin to develop in the northern Gulf off of the Louisiana coast, but still be too far from the area to bring any synoptic scale forcing for showers. Mid to upper level moisture in the 500-200mb layer will continue to bring passing clouds through the day on Tuesday into Tuesday night, a layer of dry air in the 700-500mb layer will help limit any development of showers through this period. A fairly weak pressure gradient will continue to allow for easterly winds at 5-10 mph on Tuesday with winds dropping below 5 mph each night. Temperatures through this period are closest to the National Blend of Models (NBM) which represents a fairly consistent forecast between hi-res models. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s across the area. In a stagnant air mass, highs tomorrow will again be in the mid 70s across much of the area. Lows will be slightly cooler Tuesday night with a little more clearing and radiational cooling allowing low temps to range from the upper 40s in SE OK/SW AR to the lower 50s elsewhere. /04-Woodrum/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 By Wednesday morning, the low which will have closed itself off from the upper level trough early this week will be centered over the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast, based on the latest GFS model output. At this point, individual forecast models will need to be taken with a grain of salt, as slight variations in the position of said low could have significant consequences on the precipitation forecast for the ArkLaTex through the latter half of this week. For now, the referenced GFS solution looks like a reasonable guideline comparable to the consensus informing the NBM output. Southerly flow on the eastern side of the low will serve to funnel Gulf moisture onshore, fueling showers and a few thunderstorms across the eastern half of the ArkLaTex Wednesday, lingering through Thursday afternoon, primarily along and east of the I-49 corridor. These PoPs are currently reflected by primarily Slight Chances, as confidence remains iffy at best. Again, a westward drift of the low may introduce more widespread, higher confidence PoPs, while an eastward drift may remove them from the ArkLaTex altogether. This setup should become clearer in the next few forecast cycles. The closed low looks poised to lift north and east before becoming absorbed back into its parent trough late Thursday into Friday, as the next weather maker moves into place. A deepening upper level trough will eject eastward from the Front Range of the Rockies into the central Plains during the day Friday, providing the forcing for a fresh round of showers and thunderstorms across east Texas possibly as soon as Friday afternoon, spreading areawide overnight and continuing for much of the day Saturday, looking to clear from west to east overnight into Sunday, after which quieter conditions will prevail to conclude the weekend and begin next week. Temperatures from mid to late week will hold fairly steady in the mid to upper 70s, exhibiting a sharp warming trend for Friday and Saturday as low to mid 80s return. If the cold front associated with weekend`s trough is as sharp as guidance currently suggests, Sunday could see an abrupt return of lower 70s. Lows will generally remain in the 50s to low 60s throughout. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 547 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023 BKN cu field remains across our airspace attm...more OVC across portions of Deep East Texas. Should see of this scatter out through the evening into the overnight hours, but may hang touch across portions of NE TX through sunrise Tue morning. Pretty confident that this cloud cover will remain above 3kft...keeping any low ceilings of VFR in variety through the overnight hours. Otherwise a scattered CU deck with plentiful high clouds will dominate the region on Tuesday with the high clouds shifting south by afternoon. Look for NE to E winds through the TAF period with speeds generally under 10kts. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 54 76 52 77 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 53 75 52 77 / 0 0 0 10 DEQ 52 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 53 76 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 51 74 47 77 / 10 0 0 0 TYR 53 75 52 77 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 52 75 51 77 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 54 75 53 76 / 0 10 0 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...13