Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/11/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1014 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
Key Messages:
- Warm, dry conditions remain for much of the week. High and low temperatures
Wed-Thurs look to challenge record values.
- Elevated fire weather concerns still remain through Thursday, with
low relative humidity values expected. Wednesday will be a day
to watch, with the combination of warm/dry conditions and
gusty winds.
- Precipitation chances look to move into the area Friday and through
the weekend.
Tuesday...
With mostly sunny skies and southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph,
temperatures will likely once again be higher than the NBM. As a
result, went with NBM 75th percentile for high temperatures. This
will result in high temperatures ranging from the mid-70s to around
80. This would be closer to the MOS guidance.
Tuesday night through Thursday...
There still appears to be little change in the expected forecast
through this period, as ridging builds east ahead of an upper level
trough moving into the coastal Pacific northwest. High confidence
remains in dry conditions, with above normal temperatures for this
time of the month. NAEFS guidance continues to show 850 mb mean
temperatures in the 97 to 99th percentiles Wednesday into Thursday.
This will allow high temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s and lows
in the 50s, with a couple high max and min temperature records
possibly being challenged at both KLSE and KRST. Increased southwest
winds, with gusts nearing 30 to 35 mph looks possible on Wednesday.
This, with the dry/warm conditions, may lead to elevated fire
weather conditions. For more details, please see the fire weather
discussion below.
Friday through early next week...
The aforementioned trough is expected to progress eastward into the
central U.S. through the weekend, which looks to bring an end to our
dry and unseasonably warm stretch. There are still some details
being worked out between ensemble solutions on the progression and
strength of the low pressure system. However, guidance continues to
point to precipitation chances increasing late Friday and into the
weekend. As mentioned previously, potential for severe weather looks
low with more favorable conditions looking possible further south of
the area right now.
The spread in temperatures start to increase quite a bit over the
weekend and into early next week. However, trends point to a
decrease in temperatures to near-normal values, with chances for
below-normal temperatures as well. With cooler overnight
temperatures, a few ECMWF and GEFS members show the potential for a
bit of snow to mix in Sunday night. With the large spread in
temperatures, will continue with the blended guidance which shows
this mixed potential for now. Expect forecast refinements as the
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
VFR conditions through the TAF period with variable mid and high
level clouds. The RAP was hinting at some lower clouds trying to
spread northeast into Iowa, so can keep a metwatch on these. South
to southwest winds 5 to 15kts with light winds tonight increasing
for Tuesday with stronger gusts. A low level jet increases
Tuesday night and low level wind shear may need to be added after
03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
Deep mixing conditions (850-825 mb) are expected through Thursday.
This will result in afternoon dew points ranging from 35 to 45F on
Tuesday and in the mid- and upper 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. The
combination of these dew points and high temperatures in the 70s and
lower 80s will result in relative humidities ranging from 25 to 40
percent. If we happen to mix deeper than expected, these relative
humidities could potentially fall to around 20 percent.
This will maintain the elevated fire weather concerns with the
highest concern for possible red flag conditions being Wednesday. As
noted above, this will be the warmest day and also have the
strongest winds. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to
35 mph look probable that day.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
With the latest models continuing to support a warmup this week, a
rapid increase in the snowmelt should occur across northern
Minnesota and Wisconsin. The runoff from this will get fed into
tributaries of the Mississippi River and eventually into the
mainstem of the river. Due to the drought leading into the winter,
there is uncertainty in the river models on how much of the
snowmelt the soils will absorb versus becoming runoff into the
rivers. Based on current conditions and the weather forecast over
the next several days, local locations along the mainstem of the
Mississippi River may begin to experience flooding on or after
April 14th.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyne/EMS
AVIATION...Zapotocny
FIRE WEATHER...Boyne
HYDROLOGY...04/JAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
956 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
No major changes are needed with this update. Opted to remove the
patchy fog mention from north central North Dakota given upstream
and overhead high clouds, and rapid-refresh guidance is trending
away from this potential. Used RAP 300 mb RH guidance to try to
get a better handle on the sky cover forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 711 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
No significant forecast changes are needed with this update. Thick
high clouds cooled temperatures during the late afternoon,
especially where snow pack exists. The sky cover forecast was
increased this evening to account for observations and trends. A few
degrees were added to the high temperature forecast for tomorrow at
locations that have exhibited a spatial high bias compared to
surrounding areas the past couple days, such as Jamestown, Bismarck,
and Hettinger, the latter of which has a realistic chance of
reaching 90 degrees tomorrow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
Main highlight of the short term forecast is seasonably warm
temperatures, especially across southwest North Dakota.
Broad ridging aloft continued to build on top of a high centered
over the Four Corners Region, while a trough began to deepen off
the coast of British Columbia. An embedded shortwave rounding the
top of the ridge brought widespread high stratus to the area
today, but strong low-level warm air advection was still boosting
temperatures much warmer than what we`ve seen lately, especially
across southwest North Dakota where 1930 UTC temperatures were in
the mid 60s to mid 70s. Elsewhere across the area, this warm air
aloft still has plenty of snow on the ground to compete with,
keeping temperatures anywhere from the upper 30s to the upper 50s.
Quiet tonight, with lows around freezing east to the mid 40s
southwest. Some high-res guidance shows reduced visibilities
across the north central overnight tonight, so did go ahead and
add in patchy fog for this area.
Tuesday will be the warmest day for many places since the fall as
the ridge axis moves overhead and 850mb temperatures warm to
around 18 to 20 C, which is incredibly warm for mid April. This
translates to forecast highs in the lower 80s in southwest North
Dakota, with 70s across the northwest into the north central, and
parts of the south central. Lowest confidence is in forecast
highs for the Bismarck area, as the NBM 25/75th percentile
temperature spread is still quite high, especially compared to
cities across the north and west. The uncertainty comes from the
existing snowpack, where there will be a sharp gradient between
near normal temperatures to the east and much above normal
temperatures to the west, with that line setting up on the edge of
the snowpack. How much we melt off today across central North
Dakota will strongly influence how warm we can get on Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
The extended period is highlighted by a return to cooler than normal
temperatures, and an active pattern through the end of the week.
As the previously discussed upper trough moves ashore into the
Pacific NW and the ridge axis flattens and moves into the Great
Lakes region, flow across the Dakotas will turn southwesterly and
promote an active patten. Blended guidance favors an initial wave
cutting southwest to central across the forecast area Wednesday
night through Thursday, bringing a cold front and a chance for
showers, although precipitation amounts are not likely to be
significant. NBM 12-hour probabilities of at least 0.10" of QPF
are around 45 percent in the west-central, dropping to 30 percent
across the central.
Temperatures will drop significantly for the rest of the week in the
wake of the cold front moving through during the day Wednesday.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and then cool
a bit further into the upper 30s to upper 40s for Thursday
and Friday.
As the trough base moves over the Northern Rockies and into the
region, a secondary wave will bring another round of precipitation
late Thursday through Friday. This will be more focused over the
south central and James River Valley, although again the chance of
impactful precipitation amounts is limited, with NBM 12-hour
probabilities of at least 0.10" maximized around 40 percent. Looking
at the entire 72-hour period, probabilities for at least 0.25" of
QPF is around 50 to 60% for areas along and south of Highway 2.
So certainly there is potential for modest QPF amounts, but with
the two separate waves each bringing precipitation, we are not
expecting any heavy enough showers in a short enough time that
would lead to rapid snowmelt and overland flooding. The one
caveat is the potential for any of these showers to be convective,
which could bring locally higher rainfall amounts. For now,
instability looks to be limited to areas east of our southeast
counties, but will be something to keep an eye on.
Generally thinking that daytime precipitation will be rain, with
a transition to snow overnight for some locations, although any
accumulations would be light.
Precipitation is expected to taper off from west to east on
Saturday, with skies clearing as well. Temperatures this weekend
and into next week are expected to generally be near normal west
to below normal east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 711 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light
winds this evening through tonight will become south to southwest
around 10-15 kts on Tuesday. A brief period of low level wind
shear exists at KBIS Tuesday morning.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...Jones
LONG TERM...Jones
AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1014 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure south of the region will allow temperatures to
continue to warm into Tuesday with strengthening southwest winds and
dry conditions. A weak Canadian cold front will drop through the
region on Tuesday night which will drop temperatures a few degrees
for the day on Wednesday under gusty northwest winds. A significant
warm up is expected to end the week with some areas seeing their
first 80 degree day of the year before a low pressure system
approaches the region this weekend with increasing chances for
showers and somewhat lower temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10pm Update...Warm temperatures lasted a bit after sunset, with
radiational cooling taking off mid evening. Sfc inversion is
well in place across the mountains and to KGYX where it can be
seen just forming on the 00z RAOB. MOS guidance was used to
account for rapidly cooling temps until about midnight when high
cloud should move across the CWA. The added high cloud will at
least stunt temp fall for the mountains and foothills, with the
interior and coast catching up (down) for temp decline.
Locations above this sfc inversion may the warmer locations
come Tuesday morning, with warm air sitting just off the
surface.
6:30pm Update:
Today`s forecast remains largely on track. Blended in some HRRR
to the overnight temperatures, as the forecast is running a
little warmer than expected due to strong daytime heating. A
weak surface trough is still expected to slide into the region,
providing some cloud cover and perhaps an isolated shower or two
tomorrow along the Canadian border.
Previous Discussion...
High Impact Weather Potential:
None.
Pattern: Shortwave ridge axis overhead will shift south and east of
the region tonight as a weak surface trough drops through the region
tonight with some high cloudiness spreading overhead while the
gradient strengthens aloft. Other than the increase in clouds the
biggest forecast story tonight will be warmer temperatures which is
our primary forecast focus for tonight.
Through this evening: Mostly clear skies and light west winds with
mild temperatures only falling back into the upper 40s to lower 50s
by 8pm...about 10 degrees above where they were yesterday at that
time.
Tonight: Moisture-starved shortwave trough will drop towards
northern New England tonight spreading some mid and upper level
cloudiness overhead as a weak surface trough drops through the
region. The biggest change overnight will be much warmer
temperatures given the cloudiness...warmer airmass
overhead...and strengthening low level gradient. Given some
residual llevel mixing...followed closer to NBM overnight
lows...which reach the upper 30s to lower 40s...20F warmer than
the previous night in some spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High Impact Weather Potential: Near Critical to Critical Fire
Weather Conditions.
Pattern: Low pressure over James Bay Tuesday morning will move
east through the day with high pressure centered south of the
region. Thus...a warm and dry westerly flow will continue across
the area with our primary forecast focus being on temperatures
and the potential for elevated fire danger.
Tuesday: Aforementioned low pressure system north of the area
will squeeze the gradient overhead with high pressure still over
the southern United States. Weak warm advection will continue to
push warmer air overhead...but the bigger story will be the
winds, with H9 winds increasing to 30kts and deep mixing
allowing for some surface gusts to reach over 30 mph. Any
moisture return ahead of the cold front will be slow to
arrive...which will lead to elevated fire danger for some
locations /see fire weather section below/. Towards the Canadian
border...approaching cold front may bring a few showers before
day/s end...but the very dry antecedent airmass should greatly
limit any precipitation.
Tuesday Night: Another northern stream cold front arrives
Tuesday evening crossing the region overnight. This feature will
not have access to much moisture...but a modest plume of PWATs
in excess of 0.75" will combine with robust mid level forcing to
bring some showers into the mountains through the evening before
drier and cooler air moves in overnight as gusty west winds
shift northwesterly. Lows will fall back into the mid 30s in the
mountains...but with the cooler air only slowly arriving...
southern zones will only fall into the mid and upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
N Hemisphere 500 MB pattern is forecast to transition to a
series of moderate;y amplifies omega blocks stretching from the
E Pacific all the way into Europe. Some good news is that we see
to be situated in a ridge through the extended and into the
weekend, which means mainly dry and above normal conditions
right through the weekend, with really the first chance of
showers not showing up Saturday night.
Wed will be cooler than Tuesday as we get some cooler air
behind the cold front, but it will still be above normal with
highs 50-55 in the mtns and in the 60s S, although it will be
breezy. Thu and Friday look to be the warmest as W-NW flow aloft
brings warm air from the W over the top of the ridge. Highs Thu
will be in the 70s across NH, pushing 80 in the S, while it
will be in the mid 60s to 70s in ME, coolest near the coast and
in the mtns. Friday will be even warmer with highs upper 60s to
low 70s in the mtns and mid 70s to low 80s in the S although
maybe closer to 70 on the coast due to sea breeze.
There’s a little bit of a wave that bumps into the ridge Fri
night and Saturday, which may produce more in the way of clouds
and slightly cooler temps on Saturday, but highs will still be
in the 60s and 70s. The closed 500 M154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Arnott
NEAR TERM...Arnott/Cornwell/Palmer
SHORT TERM...Arnott
LONG TERM...Cempa
AVIATION...Arnott/Cempa
MARINE...Arnott/Cempa
FIRE WEATHER...Arnott
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
707 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
Key Messages:
- Gusty southwest winds combining with afternoon humidity values as
low as 10 percent will result in critical fire weather conditions on
Tuesday. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for all of western and
north central Nebraska. See Fire Weather Discussion for more
information.
- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions exist on
Wednesday across southwestern Nebraska.
- Record high temperatures may be broken or tied on Tuesday and
Wednesday as temperatures climb into the 80s with some locations
nearing 90 degrees.
- A late week storm system will bring cooler temperature and
precipitation chances to western and north central Nebraska.
Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed an upper-
level trough was noted off the coast of the Baja Peninsula.
Further northeast of this feature, a broad upper-level ridge was
located across the Desert Southwest extending across the much of
the western CONUS into the Central and Southern Plains. An upper-
level shortwave trough was evident across southeastern Kansas into
northeastern Oklahoma. At the surface, low pressure was situated
across eastern Kansas. Clear skies and tranquil conditions have
encompassed western and north central Nebraska. At 2PM CT,
temperatures ranged from 69 degrees at Gordon to 72 degrees at
North Platte.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
A leeside surface trough will develop near the Front Range tonight.
This will lead to south-southwest winds increasing overnight with
gusts up to 25 mph in response to a tightening pressure gradient
between the aforementioned leeside surface trough and broad surface
high pressure situated across the Tennessee Valley. Quiet conditions
will continue overnight with low temperatures being in the above
normal range in the low to mid 40s under clear skies.
As the surface high pressure strengthens and pushes further west,
the pressure gradient tightens even further across the area
leading to continued gusty southwesterly winds on Tuesday. Gusts
of 25 to 35 mph will be common across western and north central
Nebraska though a localized gust up to 45 mph cannot be ruled out.
This is highlighted by the HREF ensemble which is emphasized by a
50 to 60% Probability of Exceedance of a 45 mph Wind Gust across
portions of the northern Sandhills into portions of north central
Nebraska. These gusty winds under clear skies will result in
efficient mixing with southwesterly flow leading to summer-like
temperatures knocking on our front door on Tuesday. Record
threatening temperatures are expected across the area with
temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s with some
locations across northern Sandhills seeing 90 degrees. The signal
for an anomalously warm event is supported by both the NAEFS and
ECMWF ensemble guidance suggesting that the mean temperature at
H85-5 will meet or exceed the 99th climatological percentile.
Overnight lows on Tuesday may even threaten the maximum low
temperature records for areas east of Highway 83. Lows in the 50s to
near 60 degrees will be common for areas east of Highway 83 with
lows in the 40s for areas west under clear skies.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
An upper-level trough will push onshore of the PNW on Wednesday with
broad upper-level ridging persisting across much of the central and
southern CONUS. This will lead to another dry and warm day for
western and north central Nebraska on Wednesday. Highs will climb
into the 80s with readings of 90 expected for some locations across
southwestern Nebraska. Similarly to Tuesday, the NAEFS and ECMWF
ensemble continue to paint this anomalously warm event suggesting
that the mean temperature at H85-5 will meet or exceed the 90th
climatological percentile.
In terms of fire weather concerns for Wednesday, minimum relative
humidity values fall into critical thresholds across the western
Sandhills into southwestern Nebraska leading to elevated to near-
critical fire weather conditions. However, west southwest winds will
remain light with peak gusts at 20 mph or less keeping the threat of
critical fire weather conditions fairly low. Stronger southwest
winds will be felt across areas east of Highway 83 with gusts up to
30 mph. However, minimum relative humidity values will be above 20
percent limiting fire weather concerns for those locations.
The aforementioned upper-level trough will cross the intermountain
west Wednesday night into Thursday. This will force a cold front to
drop southeast across the region on Thursday stalling out across the
northwestern half of the forecast area. Model solutions vary on just
how far the front will push across the area leading to a
challenging temperature forecast for Thursday. A decent
temperature gradient will set up across the forecast area with a
near 25 degree spread from far northwest to southeast Nebraska.
Areas behind the front across the western and northern Sandhills,
will likely see temperatures fall into the 60s to low 70s. In
contrast, areas ahead of the front across southwestern and north
central Nebraska, will see temperatures in the upper 70s to low
80s. Southerly winds will back towards the northeast with cold air
advection (CAA) increasing behind the FROPA. In addition to CAA
overspreading the area, precipitation chances increase Thursday
night behind the advancing cold front and upper-level trough.
Temperatures support rain being the predominate precipitation type
for a majority of the area. However, overnight lows fall around
or below freezing Thursday and Friday night for the Pine Ridge
area into the western Sandhills which would support a transition
to rain/snow mix and/or a brief snow shower. This is supported by
WPC highlighting portions of the western Sandhills of seeing a 10
to 30 percent Probability of Melted Snow >0.25" for both Day 5 and
6. Confidence remains low in seeing impacts associated with any
snow that does reach the ground given daytime highs on Friday and
Saturday will climb into the 40s and 50s. Precipitation chances
linger through Saturday evening before a return to dry conditions
for Sunday. While this system will bring a good opportunity for
rainfall, coverage will favor being scattered. WPC`s QPF amounts
range from 0.25" to 0.75" with the potential of 1" for some
locations east of Highway 183. Confidence at this range in the
forecast remains rather low in regards to rainfall amounts,
especially given the spread amongst model solutions, however,
expect the spread to narrow with subsequent forecasts. Regardless,
Thursday night through Saturday evening has the best potential
for wetting moisture to be seen across portions of western and
north central Nebraska.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
Expect mostly clear skies over the next 24 hours at the KLBF and
KVTN terminals. Some scattered high clouds around 25000 FT AGL
will persist overnight. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10
KTS tonight, increasing late Tuesday morning to 15 to 25 KTS with
some gusts to 30 KTS by afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
For Tuesday, gusty southwest winds up to 35 mph combining with
temperatures warming into the 80s to near 90 degrees will promote
afternoon humidity values falling as low as 10 percent. This will
result in critical fire weather conditions across western and
north central Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for
all fire zones from noon to 9PM CDT.
For Wednesday, temperatures warm into the 80s across western and
north central Nebraska. These warm temperatures will promote
minimum humidity values to fall into the teens. With these warm
temperatures and low minimum humidity values combined with
southwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph, elevated to near-critical
fire weather concerns exist for Wednesday.
For Thursday, elevated fire weather concerns exist with near-critical
concerns for areas south of I-80. A cold front will cross the
area during the day on Thursday bringing gusty southerly winds. There
is still variations in just how far south the front will track
which leads to some uncertainty in the extent of the elevated to
near-critical fire weather conditions.
For Thursday night and beyond, cooler weather should allow
minimum relative humidity values to increase above critical levels
which should lessen overall fire weather concerns. Additionally,
precipitation chances increase Thursday night through Saturday
evening bringing the potential for wetting moisture to portions
of western and north central Nebraska.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
Record highs may be tied to broken on Tuesday and Wednesday as an
anomalously strong upper ridge begins to break down as an upper
trough moves into the western U.S. Here is the record highs and
(forecast highs) Tuesday and Wednesday for the four climate
sites:
Tuesday Wednesday
North Platte 87 (85) 87 (85)
Valentine 87 (91) 88 (83)
Broken Bow 90 (82) 85 (83)
Imperial 86 (86) 88 (86)
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...Buttler
FIRE WEATHER...Viken
CLIMATE...Viken/Roberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
636 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
Latest satellite data indicates broken areas of CU across much of
the forecast area. A weak surface trough exists across central
Arkansas. Latest HRRR output produces a few light
showers/sprinkles late this afternoon across this area.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected during this period, along
with a warming trend. Afternoon temperatures will be noticeably
above normal by the end of this forecast period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
A stationary cut-off upper low is anticipated to be invof Srn
LA/SErn TX with a surface low just off the LA coast to begin the
long term period. Additional features of noteworthiness will be an
upper trough located over the PAC NW with a blocking upper ridge
along the Srn Appalachians.
On Thursday the aforementioned closed low will begin to lift NEwrd in
response to the deepening trough invof the Four Corners region and a
retreat of the ridge near the Appalachians, prompting slightly to
chance PoPs over the SErn half of AR. QPF amounts will generally be
light, with rainfall around a quarter inch or less.
By Friday the trough will eject into the Cntrl Rockies spurring
surface cyclogenesis. A trailing cold front is anticipated to extend
back to the SW of the surface low into the Srn Plains. PoP chances
will increase locally going into Saturday with the passage of the
cold front. Calmer conditions will return into Sunday as high
pressure settles into the region.
As of now, the threat for severe weather on Saturday appears low,
largely due to the fact that upper forcing will be modest and best
moisture should remain over Srn portions of the state into MS and
LA. Still plenty of time between now and then to monitor trends.
This will be our next decent chance of rainfall across a large part
of AR.
Temperatures through the period will moderate from the low/mid 70s
for highs to upper 70s/lower 80s by Saturday. Highs on Sunday will
be slightly cooler with readings climbing into the lower 60s to
lower 70s. Overnight lows will largely be in the upper 40s to upper
50s with the warmest overnight lows occurring on Saturday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
VFR conds wl prevail thru the PD. Good bit of mid and high level
clouds wl gradually dissipate later this evening. Light and
variable winds overnight, wl bcm E/SE at 5 to 10 mph on Tue.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
923 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
Low clouds dissipated very quickly this evening with only a few
hints of them remaining across Deep East Texas into portions of
Northeast Louisiana. Likewise expansive cirrus across most of our
region is thinning across our western third as well so for the
forecast update...did adjust sky grids to account for the more
scattering out of cloud cover. Hourly temperatures were running
near to slightly below forecast values so made this change in the
hourly diurnal temperature curve but otherwise, no additional
changes were necessary to the forecast.
Update out shortly...13.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
The latest RAP mid-level analysis indicates a broad trough extending
from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Valley and eastward to the mid-
Atlantic. Meanwhile, a deep ridge extends from the Desert Southwest
into the Intermountain West. At the surface, a 1035mb high is
centered off the mid-Atlantic and extends westward across the
Tennessee Valley and into the ArkLaTex. The surface high is
allowing for a dry pattern in place as high cirrus passes with
scattered to broken cumulus across much of the area.
Tonight into Tuesday night, there is GFS/ECMWF/NAM agreement that a
closed low will develop at the base of the broad mid-level trough
along the TX/LA border early on Tuesday. This feature will slowly
slide southward to the Gulf coast by Tuesday night. Meanwhile, at
the surface, high pressure will keep its stronghold northeast of
the area, becoming more centered over the Tennessee Valley by
Tuesday night. A surface trough will begin to develop in the
northern Gulf off of the Louisiana coast, but still be too far
from the area to bring any synoptic scale forcing for showers. Mid
to upper level moisture in the 500-200mb layer will continue to
bring passing clouds through the day on Tuesday into Tuesday
night, a layer of dry air in the 700-500mb layer will help limit
any development of showers through this period. A fairly weak
pressure gradient will continue to allow for easterly winds at
5-10 mph on Tuesday with winds dropping below 5 mph each night.
Temperatures through this period are closest to the National Blend
of Models (NBM) which represents a fairly consistent forecast
between hi-res models. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s
across the area. In a stagnant air mass, highs tomorrow will again
be in the mid 70s across much of the area. Lows will be slightly
cooler Tuesday night with a little more clearing and radiational
cooling allowing low temps to range from the upper 40s in SE OK/SW
AR to the lower 50s elsewhere. /04-Woodrum/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
By Wednesday morning, the low which will have closed itself off from
the upper level trough early this week will be centered over the
Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast, based on the latest GFS model output. At
this point, individual forecast models will need to be taken with a
grain of salt, as slight variations in the position of said low
could have significant consequences on the precipitation forecast
for the ArkLaTex through the latter half of this week. For now, the
referenced GFS solution looks like a reasonable guideline comparable
to the consensus informing the NBM output. Southerly flow on the
eastern side of the low will serve to funnel Gulf moisture onshore,
fueling showers and a few thunderstorms across the eastern half of
the ArkLaTex Wednesday, lingering through Thursday afternoon,
primarily along and east of the I-49 corridor. These PoPs are
currently reflected by primarily Slight Chances, as confidence
remains iffy at best. Again, a westward drift of the low may
introduce more widespread, higher confidence PoPs, while an eastward
drift may remove them from the ArkLaTex altogether. This setup
should become clearer in the next few forecast cycles.
The closed low looks poised to lift north and east before becoming
absorbed back into its parent trough late Thursday into Friday, as
the next weather maker moves into place. A deepening upper level
trough will eject eastward from the Front Range of the Rockies into
the central Plains during the day Friday, providing the forcing for
a fresh round of showers and thunderstorms across east Texas
possibly as soon as Friday afternoon, spreading areawide overnight
and continuing for much of the day Saturday, looking to clear from
west to east overnight into Sunday, after which quieter conditions
will prevail to conclude the weekend and begin next week.
Temperatures from mid to late week will hold fairly steady in the
mid to upper 70s, exhibiting a sharp warming trend for Friday and
Saturday as low to mid 80s return. If the cold front associated with
weekend`s trough is as sharp as guidance currently suggests, Sunday
could see an abrupt return of lower 70s. Lows will generally remain
in the 50s to low 60s throughout.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023
BKN cu field remains across our airspace attm...more OVC across
portions of Deep East Texas. Should see of this scatter out
through the evening into the overnight hours, but may hang touch
across portions of NE TX through sunrise Tue morning. Pretty
confident that this cloud cover will remain above 3kft...keeping
any low ceilings of VFR in variety through the overnight hours.
Otherwise a scattered CU deck with plentiful high clouds will
dominate the region on Tuesday with the high clouds shifting south
by afternoon. Look for NE to E winds through the TAF period with
speeds generally under 10kts.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 54 76 52 77 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 53 75 52 77 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 52 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 53 76 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 51 74 47 77 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 53 75 52 77 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 52 75 51 77 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 54 75 53 76 / 0 10 0 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13