Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/08/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
632 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023
Unfortunately, drought busting rain appears set to stay away for at
least another week.
In the short term, southwesterly flow aloft will continue to promote
modest lee surface troughing to our west. This will lead to a slight
breeze by Panhandle standards, particularly in the northern
Panhandles. Given the continued dry conditions - dewpoints are still
tending to run below NBM so have continued to shade below those
values using other blends - elevated to borderline critical
conditions are possible this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Given
the borderline nature of the conditions and a desire to focus on
more dangerous events with headlines, have elected not to issue a
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday. The largely collaboration driven
Red Flag Warning continues this afternoon, however.
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023
Most intriguing period of the long term forecast occurs right at the
beginning as the latest precip carrot comes into view. Decent
shortwave looks to advance southeastward from SE CO during
the day Sunday. Ahead of this, some decent low level moisture
advection looks to occur, with supportive moisture for precip
perhaps reaching the southeastern Panhandles. While the GFS
continues to depict showers and thunderstorms, guidance trend has
been to shift this toward the south and east in line with the
leading edge of the better moisture return. Additionally, progged
soundings reveal warm temperatures aloft, suggesting precip may
struggle to develop. Finally, as one examines progressively higher
resolution guidance - the NAM and the far reaches of the 15z
extended RAP - less favorable moisture reaches our CWA and less
precipitation occurs, which seems reasonable given the very dry
antecedent conditions that will precede the period of moist
advection early Sunday. Thus our recent trend of NBM PoPs
dramatically lowering as an event approaches in response to
largely dry short term guidance may start to occur yet again.
Given these trends and concerns and the fact that public and local
media users seem to be aware of our overcooked NBM-based precip
forecasts of late, have elected to undercut NBM PoPs.
Monday and Tuesday, northerly flow aloft looks to dominate. While
conditions become decidedly dry once again, this pattern doesn`t
bode well for any days with strong winds. This would be a welcome
outcome as this should preclude critical fire weather conditions
from developing even as a narrow upper ridge and warmer temperatures
aloft lead to highs in the lower 80s.
Temperatures are favored to trend a bit warmer into the mid 80s
Wednesday and Thursday and southwesterly flow aloft resumes over the
Rockies, leading to lee surface troughing and a bit of a southerly
breeze in the Panhandles in response. At this time, with downslope
wind orientation not favored, critical fire conditions may remain at
bay for another couple days but will need to watch closely.
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023
VFR conditions are expected through this period. Winds are expected
to stay mostly southerly with little meaningful variation in speed
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 35 73 47 74 / 0 0 10 20
Beaver OK 33 75 45 77 / 0 0 10 20
Boise City OK 33 74 41 72 / 0 0 10 10
Borger TX 35 77 48 77 / 0 0 10 10
Boys Ranch TX 35 75 47 77 / 0 0 10 20
Canyon TX 33 73 47 75 / 0 0 10 40
Clarendon TX 36 71 44 72 / 0 0 10 40
Dalhart TX 31 73 42 74 / 0 0 10 10
Guymon OK 33 75 46 75 / 0 0 10 10
Hereford TX 33 74 46 75 / 0 0 10 40
Lipscomb TX 33 73 44 75 / 0 0 10 30
Pampa TX 36 72 46 73 / 0 0 10 20
Shamrock TX 36 71 43 72 / 0 0 10 30
Wellington TX 36 71 43 74 / 0 0 10 40
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006.
OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
907 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023
High pressure lingers over the eastern Great Lakes region
through Sunday before shifting southeast to the mid-Atlantic
coast on Monday. This high lingers there through the end of the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Despite a weak lake-land temperature different (~10-14 degrees),
a lake breeze is expected to develop, with northeast flow off of
Lake Erie helping to advect that lake breeze further inland.
Reflected this in the wind forecast, relying on the latest HRRR
guidance to get the spatial and temporal detail.
The weather will be nice and quiet for this Easter weekend
thanks to high pressure. The center of this high pressure system
is currently located near the Upper Great Lakes region and will
slowly shift eastward tonight towards the Eastern Great Lakes
region. In fact, this system will not move a whole lot for the
next couple of days. This means fair weather conditions with
mostly clear skies. There are some scattered high level cirrus
streaming across the Ohio Valley region this afternoon and
evening which may help enhance some color for the sunset
this evening. Temperatures will be a tad chilly tonight with
temps falling into the mid to upper 20s away from the
immediate lakeshore. We will have sunny skies on Saturday but tomorrow`s
highs will still be just a few degrees cooler than our average
for early April in the lower to middle 50s. We will start the
warming trend into more Spring like temperatures after tomorrow.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge over the area responsible for surface high
pressure is expected to shift east during this forecast period.
A relatively fast moving shortwave trough is also expected to
move east across the area Monday night. A high amplitude ridge
builds over the Central Plains into Central Canada Monday and
Monday night. In reality, these features will have little in the
way of impact to the weather across the forecast area during
the short term period. As surface high pressure slips southeast
into the Mid- Atlantic states, a return southerly flow should
develop during the early part of the week and begin a warming
trend in the warm air advection flow. No precipitation expected
during this period with mainly fair weather expected.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High amplitude ridge is expected to build over the Central Plains
states into Central Canada during the early part of this forecast
period. This will amplify the surface high pressure that becomes
nearly stationary over the Mid-Atlantic states through Thursday
night. Meanwhile, upper level ridge shifts to the East Coast by
Thursday night as well. No moisture expected through this time
period resulting in a lengthy period of dry weather. Warm air
advection increases with time and the possibility exists we could
push temperatures into the lower 80s during the latter half of the
week for highs. Winds during the entire period expected to be
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions with mostly clear to fair weather skies are
expected for the next 24 hours. Winds have largely lightened up,
though there are a few obs hitting 10-11 knots, mainly out west.
Winds should lighten to generally 6 knots or less during the
overnight hours. Northerly winds become easterly tomorrow has
high pressure located north of the area shifts eastward.
Easterly winds increase to 6-10 knots during the day. Despite a
relatively weak lake-land temperature difference, northeast flow
off of Lake Erie should push a lake breeze inland, likely
impacting KERI/KCLE/KTOL and the rest of the lakeshore, with
northeast flow of 8-12 knots once the lakebreeze hits.
Outlook...VFR is expected.
A large area of high pressure in the vicinity of the Great Lakes
should settle southeast into the Mid-Atlantic states by early to mid
week. This feature will keep relatively light winds in place during
the entire forecast period with a gradual turn to a south and then
southwest direction by early next week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1133 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023
A large area of high pressure centered over the Upper Great
Lakes will drift slowly southeast through the upcoming weekend,
bringing an extended period of dry and cool weather that will
last right into the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure and associated low-pwat air mass building in from
the Grt Lks will ensure fair and cool weather tonight. The RAP
300-200mb RH fields, which currently mark the northern edge of
the cirrus shield, suggest skies will gradually clear over
northern and central PA overnight, but remain mainly cloudy over
the southern tier.
Clearing skies, a light wind and dry air should result in
efficient radiational cooling over the northern counties, so
leaned toward the colder MAV numbers up there instead of NBM
guidance. Lows at dawn should range from the upper teens in the
colder valleys of northern PA, to the low and mid 30s across the
Lower Susq Valley.
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Sprawling high pressure located just north of PA will ensure
fair and cool weather Saturday. Latest model RH fields indicate
the cirrus plume linked to a shortwave over the southern Miss
Valley will continue to affect southern PA. Current guidance
suggests mostly sunny wording in the north and partly sunny in
Similar to what occurred today, expect dry air above the
boundary layer to mix down in the afternoon, resulting in
dewpoints falling several degrees below NBM guidance. Mixing
down 850mb temps across the north and 900mb in the south (due to
cloud cover) yields expected max temps of 50-55F areawide.
Mainly clear skies, light wind and dry air should promote efficient
radiational cooling Sat night. Thus, have leaned toward the NBM10pct.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level blocking pattern will dominate the long term
period, keeping the area dry through the end of next week. A
warming trend will begin on Monday as westerly winds bring in
warmer air from the central US. By the end of the week, expect
widespread 80 degree high temperatures. A shortwave will ride
along the upper level ridge Tuesday into Wednesday, but moisture
will be lacking so the only impact should be a slight increase
in cloud cover.
Continuing warm and dry conditions, coupled with below normal YTD
precipitation totals in the Lower Susquehanna Valley could lead
to fire concerns early next week:
*Areas of increased winds in the afternoon are highest across
the northern tier, but gusts could extend down into the Lower
Susquehanna (as high as 20-25mph Wednesday PM)
*Dry conditions, with daily minimum RHs near 30% and perhaps as
low as the upper teens could warrant some concern. Westerly
winds will not bring much moisture in from the interior
portions of the country.
The next chance of rain (above 5%) isn`t until next weekend.
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue at all terminals for the
next several days. Less wind is expected tomorrow as high
pressure builds in.
Saturday-Tuesday...High pressure continues with a prolonged dry
period and VFR conditions prevailing.
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
704 PM MDT Fri Apr 7 2023
Issued at 654 PM MDT Fri Apr 7 2023
Very few changes to speak on regarding the evening forecast
update. With the higher resolution data available, went with a
minor adjustment to some of the overnight lows. Expect the
overnight lows to hover near the freezing mark for locations east
of the Laramie Range through daybreak Saturday, and areas further west
should bottom out in the teens to 20s. A few areas in the northern
NE Panhandle could see some reduced visibility and patchy fog
between 6Z-12Z as a weak cold front stalls out in that area, but
it should dissipate after sunrise for areas that see this come to
fruition. The rest of the forecast area remains quiet with little
to speak on regarding winds for a change.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Apr 7 2023
Surface analysis indicates that high pressure has continued to push
eastward across the central to northeastern CONUS, with a few
shortwave disturbances pulsing across the Intermountain West.
Conditions have been mostly mild today with clear overhead skies and
winds decreasing to just under 25 knots for most areas. Main
exception to this was the wind prone areas, where up to 40 knot
winds were observed. Some gusty to strong winds are expected to
continue tonight, with a decent omega couplet reaching across the
Laramie Range and 40+ knots moving down the slope and into northern
Platte/central Converse County. At this time, not expecting any high
wind headlines, with most of the stronger wind probabilities
remaining marginal and only 45 mph winds expected for the wind prone
areas along I-25 and I-80. Main concerns for the near term forecast
include thunderstorm potentials tomorrow afternoon. Models are in
good agreement for a shortwave trough, which is expected to dig
across the Intermountain West and into the CWA tomorrow afternoon.
Moisture content have begun to trending upwards over the last few
days with PWATs increasing to 0.50 inches. In addition, seeing some
weak forcing from the shortwave trough, cooling aloft leading to a
steepening mid-level lapse rate around 7-8 degrees C/km, and the
SREF having a 50% chance for greater than 1000 J/kg for the northern
Panhandle. All in all, stronger storms will be pretty unlikely, with
maybe grauple if there is enough destabilization present. Thunder
will be the more likely scenario through tomorrow given the elevated
instability as the trough pushes across the region. Nevertheless, a
precursor of mid/high level clouds will complicate storm initiation
from a lack of better destabilization that would otherwise occur.
Went ahead and added some POPs across the Nebraska Panhandle and a
chance for thunder to account for the latest HRRR model solutions.
Cooler temperatures are expected Saturday into Sunday with the
passage of the weak cold front, dropping daytime highs a few
degrees. Drier conditions seeming more likely for late weekend with
an upper level ridge building across the western CONUS and moisture
transport pushing much further eastward, limiting any additional
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Apr 7 2023
Main forecast concerns for the long term period focus on warmer
temperatures that will continue to increase snow melt across the
area, including at higher elevations, before a potential system with
the next best chance for precipitation late next week, however
uncertainty remains high at this time.
A broad, yet strong 500mb ridge across the western CONUS will begin
to shift overhead Monday that will support warmer, drier weather
early next week. Latest NAEFS guidance shows 500mb heights rising
above the climatological 99th percentile between Monday morning and
Tuesday afternoon. GEFS are in good agreement with 700mb temps
rising above 5C towards 10C. The deterministic NBM continues to show
max temperatures below the NBM 25th percentile due to bias
correction, so nudged temperatures closer to the NBM 50th percentile
Monday through Wednesday. Warmest temperatures will be east of the
Laramie Range. NBM probability of MaxT greater than 80F degrees on
Tuesday exceeds 70% across most of the North Platte River valley
including Torrington and Scottsbluff. Farther west, uncertainty in
MaxT remains with current snowpack across Carbon Co. Regardless,
warmer weather across the CWA will lead to increasing snowmelt and
the potential for localized flooding issues, mainly for small
streams. Afternoon temperatures next week in the Sierra Madre and
Snowys look to climb into the 40s and low 50s that will also start
chipping away at the mountain snowpack. Will need to continue to
monitor stream observations.
Later next week, models bring a Pacific trough into the western
CONUS that could break up the warmer, drier pattern late in the
week. Looks to be a split flow pattern with varying solutions that
include a cutoff low over the desert southwest and a four corners
low depending on the model you look at. Overall, these solutions
bring the chance for precipitation to the area with snowfall west of
the Laramie Range and rain showers, possibly thunder, farther east
into the NE Panhandle. Additionally, colder weather will move back
in behind this system. However with the cutoff low solution, low
confidence remains with the forecast for Thursday and beyond as
residence time and location of the low is likely to vary run to run.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 528 PM MDT Fri Apr 7 2023
Quiet weather expected overnight with some mid to high clouds and
light winds. VFR conditions should prevail at most terminals. There
is a low probability of low CIGs making there way into KCDR this
evening as a weak frontal boundary drops in from the northeast, but
confidence is low. More clouds possible during the day tomorrow with
VCSH and VCTS during the afternoon hours.
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Apr 7 2023
Fire weather concerns will be low through the weekend due to a lingering
snow pack. Minimum humidities will range from 25 to 35 percent across
portions of southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Gusty winds,
low humidities and warm temperatures will produce elevated fire weather
conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. Chances for measurable precipitation
and slightly cooler temperatures will return later next week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1048 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
Issued at 842 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023
Shortwave impulse, moving southeast across northern Minnesota, is
helping to intensify a 25 to 30 kt low level jet over a warm
front, which is draped across southern Minnesota and southern
Wisconsin this evening. An arcing swath of precip has developed
over western and central WI on the nose of this low level jet.
Precip initially struggled to reach the ground to due large
surface dewpoint depressions and low level dry air sub 800 mb late
this afternoon. But light rain has started to be observed at
Mosinee and Marshfield over the past hour in the higher returns.
Expectations are for the precip to expand in areal coverage as the
low level jet intensifies upwards of 40 kts through the evening.
Mass convergence on the nose of the low level jet will likely
shift the developing band of heavier precip northeast through the
rest of the night. Both the HRRR and RAP are not handling the
current precip very well. But looking at the broader short range
model output, there appears to be a slight northward trend in the
axis of heaviest precip to about one row of counties further north
than where the Winter Weather Advisory is located. This trend
would then place 3+ inches of snow into Langlade, northern Oconto,
and northern Marinette.
Confidence remains low due to poor handling of the current
situation in the short range models. Will consider making headline
changes over the next hour to expand the advisory a row of
counties to the north and possibly cancel the southern tier of
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023
A quiet day across central and northeast Wisconsin this afternoon
as departing high pressure allowed for sunshine and light winds.
Temps were still on the cool side for early April with readings at
20Z in the middle 30s to middle 40s.
Main focus revolves around a narrow band of moderate to heavy snow
which is expected to develop this evening.
Initially dry air will rapidly saturate this evening as strong
forcing/lift arrives. The primary mechanism will be strong
WAA/isentropic lift around 850 mb. Models are showing added
support from frontogenesis and a mid-level shortwave. Mid-level
lapse rates are also rather impressive, around 7 to 8 C/km. Lift
into the DGZ is present for several hours late this evening and
overnight, and will likely result in a period of moderate to heavy
snowfall, but overall duration will be not be greater than 10 to
12 hours as the forcing quickly departs and moisture is stripped
The precip may initially be rain or a rain/snow mix, but as the
boundary layer cools at onset expect mainly snow for the rest of
the event. A short period of freezing drizzle or rain is possible
at the end due to loss of ice crystals and warming temps, but do
not expect this to add to any impacts as it would be falling on
Precip will break out in central Wisconsin first, occurring around
or after 02Z. It then expands eastward into the northern Fox
Valley/east-central Wisconsin. Exact placement remains a challenge
as the narrowness of this band is not easily forecast by models--
which offer a broader solution. Most likely placement for the
highest snow amounts is along the Hwy 29 corridor, give or take 20
to 30 miles or so to the north or south. Opted to issue a Winter
Weather Advisory for this corridor. Fairly confident the highest
snowfall amounts will fall within this Advisory, but a subtle
shift north or south could make for less amounts in some of the
counties within the advisory. Expect snowy roads and low
visibilities within this snow band as the snow is occurring. As
the sun rises Saturday morning temps rise into the 40s, and
precip ends, expect road impacts to improve.
Lows tonight will be in the 20s to lower 30s, coolest across the
Northwoods. Highs Saturday will rise into the 40s, with some lower
50s possible in the far southern forecast area from about
Wisconsin Rapids to Oshkosh and south.
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023
Broad upper level ridging will bring well above normal
temperatures to the region through next week. The only break in
this pattern will be Sunday night and Monday when a weak cold
front and attendant mid level trough bring a slight chance for
light rain showers or sprinkles as it passes through the region.
Otherwise, the warm temperatures will cause the current snow pack
to melt across the area, which could cause river flooding along
area rivers. The Wisconsin and Menominee rivers will be most prone
to flooding with over a foot and a half of snowpack across the
northwoods. Anyone living near rivers should prepare for
potential river rising due to snow melt next week!.
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Apr 7 2023
Flying conditions will continue to deteriorate from south to
north as light rain to snow develops further across the region.
Ceilings are expected to fall to MVFR and IFR overnight. Vsbys in
a narrow snow band are likely to fall to IFR and possibly LIFR.
This snow band will likely set up Wausau and Merrill to Door
Several inches of snow are possible within the narrow snow band,
which may require plowing operations.
The snow will exit on Saturday morning, but MVFR/IFR ceilings are
likely to stick around north-central and far northeast WI into the
afternoon before lifting from southwest to northeast.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ018-019.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ020-030-
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ021-022-