Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/07/23


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
607 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Another round of moderate to isolated heavy rain will occur tonight through Friday morning. The CWA remains in a marginal risk for severe weather through Friday morning. Scattered disorganized activity will occur, fed by ample moisture, with a few stronger storms possible. The main threat will be locally heavy rain, however, resulting in mostly nuisance type flooding. There is a marginal (all except the lower Valley) to slight (ranchlands) risk of excessive rainfall through Friday morning. A disturbance will move overhead tonight and will be strong enough to stimulate elevated convection. Rain amounts could be one to two inches in an hour or two, but the active area of heavy rain should slide east to southeast beginning from the mid to upper valley and ending across east and southeast sections. The HRRR leaves extreme southeast areas like Brownsville out of the higher precip amounts, however. This will be followed by general thunderstorms Friday during the day. Rain chances will slowly diminish Friday and Friday night, though a stubborn coastal trough will keep low cloud cover around and will prevent a total drying out in the short term. Some cold air advection will continue tonight, with lows in the 50s. Friday will remain cool, with highs mainly in the 60s to possibly a few lower 70s. Low temps Friday night will again mainly be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Easter Sunday is forecast to be a pleasant rain-free day with highs in the upper 70s with mostly cloudy skies. The beginning of next week starts off with mid-level ridging but a trough quickly moves over the CWA by Tuesday and appears to try to swing a weak cold front through Deep South Texas on Wednesday. It`s too early to tell if the front will make it all the way the CWA. However, the trough will bring a chance for rain Monday and Tuesday. The low sticks around over the southeast for the rest of the period and causes our winds to turn east to southeast through Thursday. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees below normal this upcoming week. Highs will be in the lower 80s for the week with lows in the upper 50s and 60s. The start of next week will be mostly cloudy but once the front moves through on Wednesday, skies clear out for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Ceilings are expected to bounce between MVFR and IFR the next few hours until showers and thunderstorms start developing. IFR, perhaps LIFR, conditions are expected to prevail once the showers or thunderstorms begin later tonight into early Friday morning. Isolated showers remain in the forecast periodically during the day Friday as IFR to MVFR conditions continue. Winds generally come out of the north to northwest for the duration of the TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Now through Friday Night...Wave heights are just now dropping below seven feet. Thus, let the Gulf SCA expire. Moderate to fresh north winds will continue in the short term. Low end small craft advisory conditions will be possible at times. Saturday through Thursday...Marine conditions are expected to be favorable for the long term period. Rain is forecast over the Gulf Waters to start the week ahead of the next weak front. Seas stay around 2 to 4 feet with east to southeasterly gusts around 10 to 15 knots. Small Craft Exercise Caution may be needed periodically throughout the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 68 56 70 59 / 40 80 50 30 HARLINGEN 67 55 70 58 / 40 90 60 30 MCALLEN 63 55 67 59 / 40 90 50 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 54 66 57 / 40 90 60 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 59 71 63 / 40 80 60 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 56 72 60 / 40 90 60 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ150-155-170- 175. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....65-Soria AVIATION...58-Reese
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
533 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Key messages: - Locally heavy rainfall possible for most of south Texas tonight - Marginal risk for severe storms (large hail) across the area tonight Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows the deep moisture convergence increasing over inland portions of south Texas along the 925 to 850 mb layer frontogenesis axis. Satellite imagery shows an area of convection increasing in northeast Mexico attributed to the large scale lift associated with the left exit region of the upper jet. SPC mesoanalysis also shows MUCAPE values from 1000 to 1500 J/kg in place from the eastern Brush Country to the coast. With adequate 0-6 km shear of 40-45 knots, some of the storms could produce large hail tonight. HRRR and SPC HREF are in agreement with convection increasing by early this evening in strong upper level divergence zone overlaying the low level convergence zone across south Texas. Precipitable water values will range from 1.5 inches west to near 1.9 inches along the coast. With the steering flow being parallel to the convergence axis, expect storms could train across the same areas over the coastal plains, similar to what happened last night over the Brush Country. Will mention locally heavy rainfall possible for all but the western Brush Country for tonight. Most of the hi-res models have the strongest convection moving into the coastal waters late tonight into Friday morning, but there will be lingering shower activity left over inland. Models show a secondary short wave trough moving out of northeast Mexico on Friday with the upper level divergence increasing again in the left exit region of the upper jet. Hi-res models show convection forming again across the northern counties during the afternoon. The temperatures will continue to be below normal. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 The weather forecast is expected to be predominately quiet with temperatures gradually warming into early next week. Zonal 500 hPa heights are expected across the Southern Plains through Monday when a trough is forecast to dig into the Lower Mississippi Valley and become cutoff during the middle part of next week. Mid-level support for ascent due to cyclonic vorticity advection combined with PWAT forecast to be 1.0"-1.3" (between the 50th and 75th percentile of climatology) will support a low chance (< 20%) for measurable rainfall during Monday through Wednesday of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Very little change to the aviation forecast for the 00Z TAF cycle. IFR to LIFR ceilings are expected to prevail across South Texas with MVFR to IFR visibility possible. Timing will remain difficult with regards to the lowest conditions as they will coincide with heavier showers and thunderstorms. Any areas of convection will produce heavy rainfall. A few storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds and large hail. Expect reduced visibility, lowered ceilings, and variable gusty winds in and around strong storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 A moderate to strong offshore flow will continue through this evening, with an SCA in effect from 6 PM until midnight for the Gulf waters. Widespread showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected later tonight into Friday. Some of the storms will be capable of producing large hail and strong wind gusts. The northeast winds will weaken to moderate late tonight into Friday. High pressure over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will result in winds generally less than 15 knots and seas less than 3 feet through the weekend into the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 56 65 56 70 / 90 70 30 0 Victoria 55 64 54 70 / 90 80 40 0 Laredo 54 62 56 73 / 90 60 20 0 Alice 54 63 54 72 / 90 70 20 0 Rockport 57 66 58 72 / 90 80 40 10 Cotulla 54 61 57 75 / 80 80 10 0 Kingsville 55 64 54 70 / 90 70 30 0 Navy Corpus 62 67 60 71 / 90 80 40 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ250-255- 270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM....TWH AVIATION...LS/77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
433 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Key messaging in the short term will be the enhanced fire danger for Friday afternoon mainly for areas from Elkhart to Wakeeney on west. 17Z observations are showing sunny skies as a 1032 mb high in Missouri is providing the subsidence to not allow any cloud cover to develop. A lee side trough and surface low is developing in eastern Colorado which will aid in some wind gusts this afternoon but will be the bigger catalyst for Friday`s winds. In the upper levels a large trough with a 110 kt jet streak is exiting western Kansas with another shortwave trough developing in the desert southwest. Tonight overall should be quiet as the high pressure center in Missouri will keep the skies clear and the pressure gradient with the surface low in Colorado should keep the winds out of the south through the night. With relatively mild boundary layer air we should have slightly warmer overnight lows as we fall into the low 30s. Friday as mentioned will be mainly a fire danger concern. SPC outlook puts an enhanced risk across much of southwest Kansas with ensemble members and Fosberg index putting the greater confidence of a better fire weather environment from Elkhart to Wakeeney on west. Since models seem to under perform winds and dewpoints...I went more with the HRRR idea on dewpoints and increased the wind speeds in the afternoon mainly for areas along the Colorado border to I-70. This would put the aforementioned area just into red flag territory with RH values around 10% and wind gusts around 30-35 mph. Overall it should be another mild and sunny day as highs get into the middle 60s. Friday night the winds should stay up as the lee side trough in eastern Colorado stays in place and the lower levels will stay better mixed. Lows will fall into the middle 30s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Key messaging in the long term is some subtle shifts to the weather pattern which will potentially affect temperatures next week and there is also a small change of some rain and storms for Sunday. Saturday we will continue in the pattern of a lee side trough and surface low in Colorado leading to breezy south winds in the afternoon and highs reaching into the low 70s. Sunday an upper level trough will move in from the Rockies during the day and this will bring in a cold front and push the surface low eastward into southwest Kansas. There will be some modest moisture ahead of the front with mid term models hinting at some 50 degree dewpoints towards Pratt and Med Lodge. NAM guidance along with the global models are now all showing some convection developing along the front in the mid to late afternoon for areas east of Dodge City. Bufkit profiles during this time are showing around 500-700 J/kg of CAPE which could lead to some isolated storms. Ensembles are also looking in more agreement of some QPF from Sunday afternoon through the night for these areas so I have a little more confidence we could see some rain for the lucky few who happen to get under these storms. Early next week both deterministic and ensemble models are showing an upper low developing along the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge trying to build into the central plains. However the introduction of this low is going to make temperature forecasting a bit more difficult. For instance on Monday with the passage of the front and the upper level winds staying out of the northeast under the influence of the developing upper low we could see a scenario of northeast winds at the surface during the day which would temper the afternoon highs a few degrees. With the main upper level winds in Canada during the middle of the week the upper low won`t have much steering aloft that it will just slowly move east during the midweek which will keep western Kansas on a boundary between the very warm temperatures in the Rockies versus the cooler air in the southeast. With this setup I was comfortable lowering highs a bit on Monday and then sticking with the middle of the road guidance for highs during the middle of the week as we see how this pattern emerges. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 433 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Excellent flying weather is expected through 15z Fri with VFR/SKC and light SE winds prevailing. After 15z Fri, south winds will increase at all airports, gusting 28-32 kts, with the strongest winds at GCK. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Enhanced to near critical fire weather conditions are likely for Friday afternoon as many areas in southwest Kansas will see relative humidity values fall to below 15%. The strongest winds look to be from an Elkhart to Wakeeney line on west with 25-35 mph winds out of the south with gusts to 45 mph. Farther south and east the winds will still be as breezy but not as strong. Winds will be in the order of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 29 66 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 28 66 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 31 65 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 28 66 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 30 68 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 P28 31 66 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for KSZ030-031-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Tatro AVIATION...Turner FIRE WEATHER...Tatro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
959 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 .Forecast Update... Issued at 959 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Fair weather will continue overnight as surface high pressure continues to build into the region while the ridge`s center slides west to east across the Great Lakes...continuing to provide dry low/mid levels and light northerly winds. A broad 150-175 kt upper- level jet will continue to flow from the Upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes...with central Indiana`s proximity near the jet`s right-entrance region continuing to promote upper level cloudiness. Upper clouds will decrease towards dawn as the jet both weakens and slowly slides east. Back at the surface, light northerly flow will hold the slightly below normal temperature regime over the region...although upper clouds should prevent more than a 15-20 degree drop from Thursday`s max to dawn Friday. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s across the northern tier to upper 30s south of the I-70 corridor. && .Short Term...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 * Dry and tranquil conditions through the end of the week * Warming trend begins tomorrow An extended stretch of warmer and quiet weather is on the way for much of Indiana tomorrow through next week. Different story this afternoon though as the main cold front which pushed through yesterday is well south of the region and satellite imagery reveals high clouds still streaming in overhead from the southwest. Just north of the region, a strong 170 kt jet streak still persists with Indiana in the right entrance region of it. Strong upper level moisture advection within the baroclinic zone has kept higher clouds around much of the day with the thickest cloud cover across southern portions of Indiana. In the lower levels, high pressure is centered over the Central Plains resulting in light northerly flow across Indiana. Latest IND ACARS soundings shows the saturated layer between 200mb and 400mb where the high cloud deck is located. Closer to the surface, soundings reveal much drier air through the low and mid levels due to subsidence under the high pressure system. Cold air advection behind the front and increased cloud cover have lead to below average temperatures across the state today with many locations struggling to reach the 50 degree mark. Lowered highs this afternoon accordingly as temperatures have been slow to rise. Expect the increase in cloud cover to keep temperatures slightly elevated tonight, so kept tonight`s lows above NBM guidance in the mid to upper 30s for most places. Best chance at clearing skies is across North Central Indiana where lows may approach freezing in some spots. The warming trend begins tomorrow as high pressure shifts northeastward towards the Great Lakes region. Upper level winds and moisture advection weaken through the day tomorrow, so expect upper level clouds to thin out and begin to clear out from north to south. Low and mid level winds shift from northerly to easterly with 850 mb temps steady around 0-2C. With an increase in sunshine tomorrow and lack of cold air advection, expect high temperatures to reach the upper 50s to low 60s. Latest RAP forecast soundings show deep mixing tomorrow afternoon up to 7 kft agl with steep low level lapse rates and the possibility of drier air mixing to the surface. Lowered afternoon dew points to NBM 10th percentile from 14z to 23z tomorrow, which brings Min RH values down into the 20s. With little to no pressure gradient and weak winds aloft, do not expect winds to increase much over 10 kts during the afternoon hours. Despite low RH values, do not think there will be an elevated fire threat. && .Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Quiet weather is expected throughout the long term, with high pressure in control through most of the period. A weak upper trough will move through around Monday, but this feature will not have any deep moisture to work it. Also, there now looks to be little if any surface reflection. Thus, have removed the small chances for rain that had been in Monday and Monday night. Temperatures will gradually moderate early in the long term. Friday night will have lows in the mid to upper 30s. For areas in the southern forecast area where the frost/freeze season has started, clouds and winds should keep frost at bay there Friday night. Will keep an eye on it. As high pressure settles in to the southeast of central Indiana later in the period, southwest flow will bring in well above normal temperatures. Highs from Tuesday through Thursday look to be in the 70s, with perhaps near 80 degree readings by Thursday. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 719 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Impacts: * None Discussion: VFR conditions will be the rule across central Indiana as all terminals remain amid a broad mid/low-level dry conveyor through Friday. Seasonably strong surface high pressure presently centered along the Upper Mississippi Valley will promote north-northwesterly winds sustained at/under 7 kts this evening. The surface ridge will slowly slide to the eastern Great Lakes by the end of the TAF period...with winds correspondingly veering to east-northeasterly after dawn Friday...sustained around 7-9 knots after 14z. High clouds over the region are expected to decrease through AM hours FridaFair weather will continue overnight as surface high pressure continues to build into the region while the ridge`s center slides west to east across the Great Lakes...continuing to provide dry low/mid levels and light northerly winds. A broad 150-175 kt upper- level jet will continue to flow from the Upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes...with central Indiana`s proximity near the jet`s right-entrance region continuing to promote upper level cloudiness. Upper clouds will decrease towards dawn as the jet both weakens and slowly slides east. Back at the surface, light northerly flow will hold the slightly below normal temperature regime over the region...although upper clouds should prevent more than a 15-20 degree drop from Thursday`s max to dawn Friday. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s across the northern tier to upper 30s south of the I-70 corridor. y. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...AGM Short Term...CM Long Term...50 Aviation...AGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
900 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Radar and satellite shows Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over Southwest Louisiana finally drifting eastward. Radar estimates of 6 to 10 inches from Hackberry across Calcasieu Lake to near Grand Lake, with 4 to 6 inches further north across Southern Calcasieu Parish. This, and the previous MCS earlier this afternoon further east, continues along the stalled frontal boundary. Latest short term guidance shows this MCS continuing to move east later this evening into the early morning hours across South Central Louisiana, with another round likely to enter across Southeast Texas/Southwest Louisiana near or shortly before daybreak Friday. WPC has expanded the Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall eastward. With the latest trends, have expanded the Flood Watch eastward to Avoyelles, St. Landry, Lafayette, and Vermilion parishes through Saturday morning. Latest updates were only minor changes, but forecast generally on track. 08/DML && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Forecast remains on track this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms have rapidly expanded across the coastal waters and further inland. Expect showers/storms to continue to develop and fill in across SETX and SWLA as we move into the evening. Some of the showers/storms could produce very heavy rain as ingredients for heavy rain continue to improve through the evening. Currently PWATs are increasing from 1.3" this morning to 1.5" to 1.7" with modest moisture advection. Meanwhile, a disturbance is tracking SW to NE along and just west of the stalled frontal bndry. This will likely aid in the development and maintenance of storms overnight. Based on the trends and most recent CAMs, expanded the Flood Watch south and east to include a greater area. CAMs from 12-18 hrs ago and the most current runs have showed an increasingly wetter signal. The 12Z HRRR total qpf through tomorrow evening shows 5"-7" with localized 7"-10" of rain across SETX, which is backed up by the WRF NSSL. To further add support, the HREF PMM shows a bullseye of 3"-7" inches of rain, with HREF LPMM showing localized amounts of 7"-10+". Latest NBM guidance has also showed a noticeable bump in QPF, leading to increasing confidence of very heavy rain this evening through tomorrow. Looking over everything, 4"-7" inches with locally higher should be reasonable for SETX/SWLA with 1"-3" and locally higher amounts elsewhere across the CWA. In addition to the heavy rain and flood threat, we remain under a Marginal Risk for severe weather through the evening. Any storm that can maintain itself north of the front could pose a marginal hail/wind threat. While any storm that forms SE/along the stalled frontal bndry could pose a brief tornado risk until instability wanes later this evening. In fact, we have already seen several rotating storms over the past couple hours. Heavy rain/storms will continue overnight with a downward trend by tomorrow morning as the best forcing lifts NE of the CWA. Then the focus shifts to Acadiana as the sfc low moves from WSW to ENE along/south of the stalled frontal bndry. This may keep showers and storms through Friday into Saturday morning/afternoon. However there remains some uncertainty as to how close the sfc low will track to the coast and the axis of heaviest rain. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 The start of the forecast period will be nice as Easter Sunday will be a warm and sunny. In the upper-levels, winds will be calm with no active weather expected. However, in the mid-level, around 850 mb, RH will stay high leading to mostly cloudy skies. At the surface high pressure will build into our area further pushing us towards calm weather. Temperatures will be seasonal with winds out of the east to northeast through midweek. Around Wednesday, models are in good agreement that an upper-level jet will set up on the gulf coast. Models have started to show a MCS developing somewhere along the gulf coast, west of New Orleans. There is some indication that the MCS may surface low may become stacked at the 850 and 500 mb levels. This is a fairly new change in the model guidance so confidence remains quiet low. So what does this mean for our region, some more clouds and showers but not much else. Winds may shift and become more northernly That being said the confidence in the long term forecast remains low, so changes can be expected in future forecasts. The extended forecast, past Thursday, shows another round of high pressure with calm conditions and seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue across the region this evening and overnight in response to a nearly stationary frontal boundary and an upper level disturbance moving across the region. Ceilings will fluctuate between MVFR outside of storms to IFR near and within them. Breezy northwesterly gradient winds will persist away from storms with higher gusts near storms. Expect storm activity to become less widespread by midday Friday before increasing again Friday evening. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 A stationary boundary has parked itself in the coastal waters off Cameron Parish extending inland to the northeast. Expect multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds through the night. Moderate easterly winds today will shift northeast to north by tonight and continue into the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued tonight to account for the increase in gusty winds in the nearshore waters off of Sabine Pass. The front will remain nearly stationary into the weekend, before pushing away and dissipating. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 53 61 53 67 / 90 90 70 30 LCH 59 69 57 70 / 90 80 70 30 LFT 62 73 62 72 / 80 80 80 50 BPT 60 69 58 72 / 90 90 60 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for LAZ027>033-044-073-074- 141>143-152-241>243-252. TX...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for TXZ180-201-259>262-515- 516-615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ450. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
619 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 The forecast for today remains on track with clearing skies and temperatures in the mid-50s into the mid 60s. Skies will remain mostly clear through much of the night, and winds will become light, allowing for excellent radiational cooling and temperatures to fall a few degrees lower than what we saw this morning. A shortwave trough, noted on 2 PM mid-level water vapor and RAP analysis near Baja California, will generally weaken/lift as it moves to the east towards the region. As the shortwave trough moves east and northeast, a cyclone will form over southeastern Colorado, and a surface high over eastern Kansas will move to the east. This will result in winds becoming more southeasterly, advecting some additional moisture into the region. The combo of the upslope flow and weak moist isentropic upglide will bring increased clouds and the chance of light precipitation to the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains Friday afternoon. This activity will generally be light as the sub-cloud layer will be relatively dry. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Confidence is increasing in a more unsettled pattern developing Sunday and Monday followed by cooler highs through the middle of next week as an upper low parks itself over the Lower MS Valley. Until then, we`ll be shaking off a few showers Friday night as a decaying trough in westerly flow passes through. Guidance has trended lower with ascent and subsequently QPF across our region as a 700mb high now retrogrades near the Rolling Plains on Friday. This would effectively delay a great deal of elevated moisture from reaching the CWA, but can`t rule out some showers from grazing our southernmost zones Friday night before ascent diminishes behind the trough. Saturday features cool surface ridging departing the region under westerly flow. Barring some residual clouds around 700mb, mostly sunny skies and southerly winds should push highs into the 70s. Things turn a bit more interesting on Easter Sunday as shortwave trough sweeps across the Rockies closely followed by another impulse. Ensembles are in good agreement with these waves phasing over the southern Great Plains Sunday night ahead of yet another shortwave on Monday resulting in a cutoff low across eastern TX and LA. Although PWAT anomalies will already be pushing +1/2" by Sunday morning, precip chances become better defined later in the day on Sunday and especially overnight with the arrival of the second and more dynamic shortwave trough in NW flow. NBM`s 20-30 PoPs during this time were massaged a bit to better align with deterministic guidance. Inserted thunder as well given sufficient MLCAPE pushing 800-1000 J/kg at times. These cool NW flow regimes with low CAPE can still breed some healthy convection especially given 30-40 knots of deep layer shear, so can`t rule out some strong cells at times complete with locally heavy rain. By Monday, another shortwave dropping south through the southern plains may be enough to garner additional rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms mainly off the Caprock. As the upper low sets up to our east, cool and drier northerly flow through the middle of the week should keep highs much cooler than originally expected. The NBM has yet to fully weight the recent shift in guidance toward this cooler pattern, so opted for CONSMOS highs from Sunday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 VFR conditions and a continuation of generally modest east- southeast winds can be expected through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Post-frontal easterly upslope flow has maintained weak cold advection and below normal temperatures today, with highs this afternoon on target to top out in the 60s for most, with 70s through the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. Latest water vapor imagery and 500 hpa RAP analysis indicate a shortwave trough currently making slow progress across Baja into northern Mexico. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly flow aloft has resulted in a plume of subtropical moisture to be routed across northern Mexico across the Texas Hill Country toward the Middle Mississippi Valley. Tonight, the aforementioned trough will develop a negative tilt as it finally begins to translate from northwestern Mexico across Arizona and New Mexico. As this trough progresses, midlevel flow across the region will amplify, serving to route additional moisture west- northwestward across the area. This will be evidenced by increasing clouds late tonight, as well as the potential for a few showers toward morning, especially across the Lower Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and Big Bend. Despite the increase in cloud cover, tonight will be chilly once again given cool easterly surface flow, with lows in the 30s and 40s for most. On Friday, the trough will dampen substantially as it ejects northeastward over the region toward the Red River Valley and Central Plains. Despite its dampening, increased ascent associated with its passage as well as continued moisture transport northwestward across the region coincident with a weak cold front will yield increasing precipitation chances areawide. Currently, QPF remains low, thus substantial rainfall is not expected, though a shortwave passing in the southwesterly flow aloft could produce a few thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening, across the Davis Mountains/adjacent areas and eastern Permian Basin, respectively. Severe weather is not expected, though lightning, brief downpours, and gusty winds are possible. In addition to rain chances, a brief transition to a wintry mix will be possible across the highest terrain of the Guadalupe Mountains where temperatures will be colder, but given light QPF, little to no accumulation is expected. Friday will be the coolest day of the forecast, and highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s for most will come in roughly 15-20 degrees below normal for early April. Heading into Friday night, the dampened trough and shortwave will continue to progress northeastward, with precipitation diminishing accordingly. Light easterly flow will continue, though partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist, with lows dropping into the middle 30s to middle 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 A return to near and slightly above normal temperatures is expected through the long term period. At the start of the period, the upper- level pattern is quasi-zonal. Temperatures will initially be slightly below normal with widespread 70s Saturday afternoon. Continued return flow keeps overnight lows mild in the upper 40s and low 50s. A mid-level shortwave trough begins to amplify as it moves into the Southern Plains east of the region. This puts us to the rear of this feature. Regardless, with some forcing for ascent and increasing moisture with continued return flow, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms may materialize. Temperatures also climb a few degrees during the afternoon to near normal temperatures in the upper 70s. Continued mild overnight temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s are expected. As the trough east of the region begins to cut-off from the main flow, weak shortwaves wrap around this feature. An additional slight chance of showers and thunderstorms exists Monday afternoon in response to one of these weak shortwaves. Temperatures remain steady in the upper 70s for the majority. Mid- level ridging will try to amplify west of this trough heading into the middle of next week. This ridging is currently forecast to nudge temperatures slightly above normal with low 80s becoming more prevalent across the region. Overall a warm and pleasant pattern with some much needed precipitation potential. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Light to modest easterly winds will continue the next 24 hours. CIGs BKN035-050 will move into the area starting around 12Z with MVFR CIGs BKN020-030 moving into FST as well. These conditions will then persist through the end of the TAF period. Hennig && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 A Grassland Fire Danger Statement is in effect through late this afternoon for everyone outside of the Big Bend and Eastern Permian Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through late this afternoon due to dry conditions and dry fuels across much of the area. Persistent return flow allows for several days of good to excellent overnight recovery with afternoon minimum relative humidity remaining above critical values after today. 20 ft winds will remain mostly light across the region. Fire weather concerns remain low as a result. ERCs were hovering around the 70th-89th percentile but persistent moisture return should decrease ERCs to more around the 50th-69th percentile, further reducing fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 41 61 43 74 / 10 40 20 0 Carlsbad 38 58 41 74 / 0 30 10 0 Dryden 48 56 48 72 / 20 30 10 0 Fort Stockton 43 53 43 73 / 10 50 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 36 52 40 70 / 0 30 10 0 Hobbs 35 58 37 71 / 0 30 20 0 Marfa 35 55 33 75 / 10 40 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 42 58 42 73 / 10 50 20 0 Odessa 40 58 43 71 / 10 50 20 0 Wink 40 57 41 74 / 0 40 20 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1050 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Update to include the 06z aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Winds continue to decrease through this evening. - Slight chance of a wintry mix and freezing rain for parts of East Central Minnesota and Western Wisconsin late Friday into Friday night. Only a few scattered high clouds have been meandering their way eastward across Southeastern Minnesota this afternoon. Otherwise clear blue skies being reported across the area. Temepratures still reluctant to surpass the freezing mark across Central MN courtesy of the snow pack whereas farther south temperature observations in the upper 30s low 40s. Cloud cover are expected to increase in coverage overnight tonight as a weak shortwave will proceed across the area. Precip impacts look to be null as forecast soundings looking to dry. Winds are expected to decrease tonight as they shift in the clockwise direction to the east by sunrise Friday morning. On Friday upper-level ridging builds just off to our west. Ahead of this feature, another shortwave develops MN/NoDak border which could produce enough low-level forcing for mixed precipitation in Eastern MN and Western Wisconsin. Short term RAP and HRRR guidance did show signal for a wintry mix of precipitation mainly along line from Wright County, MN to Rusk County, WI Notably, there is a slight potential of freezing rain in these areas tonight into early tomorrow morning before sunrise. The extent of the freezing rain threat will greatly depend on how far north warm air can advect northward. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - An aggressive warming trend will take place through late next week with highs well into the 70s, maybe some low 80s, and nearing daily records. Building heights on a synoptic scale beginning this weekend will be tempered a bit by a passing shortwaves early Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation should be east of the area to start Saturday and skies will clear by afternoon. Increasing southeast or southerly slow and a snow line that is expected to retreat 30 to 50 miles northwest of where it is now (roughly from St James to Eau Claire) should allow for maximum mixing across southern/eastern Minnesota and parts of WI. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s should be reached in those areas, but remaining in the 40s to lower 50s where snow still exists. The second shortwave will swing through Sunday. As this disturbance begins to impinge on amplified ridging over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, frontogenesis will become strong and should be enough to develop at least a broken band of showers. Moisture transport is not great and instability is nil, so hesitant to forecast greater than 50 PoPs for now. Next week will be characterized by a deep trough over the west and a cut off low over the southeast, with amplified ridging in between stretching from the southern High Plains northeast to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This blocking pattern will allow warmth to build each day to the end of the forecast period. As the warm airmass continues to rapidly eat away at the remaining snow pack, the temperature contrast between the snow and non-snow areas will decrease so that by Thursday highs may be in the 70s area wide. NBM seems to be handling this warm up very well and very few adjustments were needed, despite its anomaly. A discussion about the flooding threat from snowmelt can be found in the hydrology section below. Thermal ridging will remain centered overhead Wednesday and Thursday. 925 mb temps on all deterministic guidance has increased to at least +20C, signaling a decent chance at 80. Record highs Wednesday and Thursday are 83 and 84, respectively at MSP, 82 and 81 at St Cloud, and 82 and 80 at Eau Claire. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 VFR with clear skies and light winds tonight. Winds will shift to the east on Friday with mostly high clouds. Friday evening into Friday night will have a chance for some rain or snow, best chances in Wisconsin. Farther west will see less chance for precipitation, but should still see some lower clouds with MVFR CIGS returning. KMSP... VFR and light winds through the period. Chance for some rain about 20% chance late Friday evening into Friday night. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat...VFR. Chc morning MVFR. Wind SE 15G25 kts. Sun...VFR. Chc afternoon MVFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts. Mon...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts. && .HYDROLOGY... Updated at 350 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 The rapidly rising temperatures will lead to rapidly melting snow, and a start to the flood season in earnest. The rate of melt may be something the river models has a hard time with, given the rarity of this kind of temperature profile and this amount of snow. Other uncertainties exist in how much water will the soil be able to hold, and will the soil infiltration rate be quickly overcome by the rate of melting; how much water is actually out there in the snowpack, given the difficulty in measuring SWE this season; how quickly will we lose the ice in the rivers; how long will the snow hang on before it is all gone; and of course whether we wind up with some heavier rainfall in week 2. Right now, we could see low areas, small streams and tributaries in all basins outside of southern MN counties start to see "areal" flooding by as early as Sunday/Monday, with larger rivers following next week, and the mainstem Mississippi/St. Croix/Chippewa over a week away. Coordinated with DLH/ARX on messaging, highlighting in HWO and AFD for now, along with flood outlook story map as a web headline. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RMD LONG TERM...Borghoff AVIATION...NDC HYDROLOGY...CCS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
915 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 915 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Also meant to mention that for locations experiencing rainfall tonight, total rainfall amounts are expected to be less than one quarter of an inch. Enough instability noted late evening through early overnight hours tonight for locations south of I-40 Corridor approaching TN/AL Border Region that isolated thunderstorm development could occur. && .UPDATE... Issued at 858 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Tweaked current hourly temperature, dewpoint, and sky conditions grids blending them with previously forecasted late evening/ early overnight associated hourly gridded values. Current regional temperature trends continue to generally be in line with forecasted lows. Overall, temperatures are not expect to drop much from current values. 07/00Z HRRR model solution initialized best of all CAMs analyzed and depicts a similar gridded pop forecast as afternoon suite of forecast products issuances. Some minor differences noted here and there, but it still leans toward a realistic weather pattern evolution through nighttime hours tonight. 07/00Z HRRR model solution depicting well this early portion of mid evening hours break in shower activity currently being experienced across most of mid state region in contrast to previous 06/12Z model runs. As remainder of mid to late evening hours progress, showers will be slowly moving in from southwest spreading mainly across southern and eastern portions of mid state region through early overnight hours. As latest 07/00Z HRRR model solution only goes through 07/07Z(2 AM CDT) tonight, leaned toward 06/23Z HRRR model solution for remaining overnight hours which continues best moisture advection across southern and eastern portions. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 It`s been kind of a cool, dreary day across most of Middle TN. Our current cold front completed its journey through the mid-state earlier this morning and with light to moderate rain still coming down across the western 2/3 of the area, temperatures are holding firm in the 40s and 50s pretty much area-wide. We should finally get a break in the precip, at least for a short while, late this afternoon or early this evening, but we aren`t done with the rain from this system. Even with the front well into Alabama, moisture will linger across the area for the next 36 hours and as it does so, multiple waves will bring more showers to our southern and eastern zones. Rainfall totals are relatively light and not focused where we`ve had the heaviest of rains over the last 24 hours, so no flooding is expected, but rains may very well stick around through tomorrow and may not exit Middle TN until first thing Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Once rains do exit the area Saturday, the remainder of the holiday weekend will be dry with very spring-like temperatures. On Monday, models are fairly consistent with the development of a shortwave that will develop across the center of the country and dig into the Gulf States. This development will pull moisture northward, but dry conditions should persist through the first half of the week. Temperatures will remain seasonal in the low 70s Monday and Tuesday, but by Wednesday, we`ll start to warm up. Highs should climb towards 80 degrees and finally on Thursday, rain chances will return to the mid-state. Rainfall totals look pretty light and as of right now no severe is expected, giving us a much needed break from that category of weather forecasts. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 506 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 Cold front now located south of the mid state. 850 mb boundary, however, will hang up across northern AL through the taf period. This will offer some additional low level convergence to enable the convective shower activity to continue across mainly southern and eastern middle TN. Look for nearly continuous -shra for CSV, with vcnty for BNA, and only an initial portion of vcnty precip inclusion for the CKV area. Otw, ifr cigs will persist for eastern middle TN, but should lift for other areas by 08Z or so. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 47 60 47 63 / 40 30 30 30 Clarksville 44 62 44 64 / 10 10 10 10 Crossville 44 52 44 56 / 90 70 60 50 Columbia 44 58 46 61 / 70 50 30 30 Cookeville 45 56 46 59 / 80 60 40 40 Jamestown 42 54 42 57 / 80 50 40 40 Lawrenceburg 45 57 47 61 / 80 60 40 40 Murfreesboro 45 59 47 62 / 80 50 40 40 Waverly 44 60 45 61 / 20 10 10 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
950 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm, southwesterly flow will result ahead of a cold front that will move southeast across the region tonight. Chilly and damp high pressure, and associated cold air damming conditions, will follow for Friday through Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 950 PM tonight... Severe threat has passed. Turning much cooler with rain developing later tonight and Friday morning. Outflows and the seabreeze were coming together over the Triangle Area this evening. Scattered to numerous showers/storms have moved into the Roanoke Rapids area northeast into southeast VA. Isolated showers continue down the boundary from near Rocky Mount to Raleigh to Southern Pines. The latest HRRR still shows an uptick in showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight along the current boundary. Then, the more stable air advects in from the NE and an overrunning pattern will ensue toward daybreak with rain developing. Expect lows from the upper 40s north ranging into the 60s south (but the readings in the south will be falling by around daybreak, as well). Previous discussion as of 225 PM Thursday... As of 2pm, the approaching cold front extended from the mid-Atlantic down into western North Carolina and the Gulf of Mexico. Looking at surface observations, the front is between Boone/Hickory and to the east of Asheville. Just in the last hour, a line of showers and thunderstorms has developed from southwest Virginia into western North Carolina. The line of thunderstorms will move east along with the front through the afternoon, reaching the Triad for the evening commute and moving into the western Triangle around sunset. A small portion of the forecast area is in a slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe weather, while an area roughly northwest of US-1 is in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather. The threat for tornadoes appears to be minimal; the primary threats this afternoon would be large hail and damaging winds. The primary limiting factor locally is that the strongest wind shear appears as if it will remain to our west across the mountains. As the night progresses, the front will slow in its eastward progress, with the front likely hanging up along the southern border of the forecast area sunrise Friday morning. Likely to categorical pops are forecast everywhere except southernmost locations. Expect a wide gradient in overnight lows - across the north, Roxboro could drop into the upper 40s, while to the south of the front, overnight lows will remain in the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Thursday... A vigorous srn stream perturbation over Baja CA and the Gulf of CA this afternoon will pivot newd across the srn Plains Fri and into the mid-South and lwr MS Valley Fri night. It will do so on the nwrn periphery of an initially highly-anomalous, 591 dam sub-tropical ridge centered at 500 mb over the FL peninsula today, which will weaken and collapse swd across the Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan through the forecast period. Between the two, a ribbon of convectively-enhanced vorticity in swly mid-level flow, and an underlying strong, lwr/mid-level frontal zone, one now stretching across the lwr OH and lwr MS Valleys, will settle sewd across the Southeast, including cntl NC. At the surface, a cold front will have reached sern NC wwd across nrn SC, including through or near Sampson Co. in cntl NC, by 12Z Fri. That front and following markedly chillier air and nely breeze with surface gusts of 20-30 kts, will then continue swd and reach srn GA/AL by 12Z Sun, propelled by strong pressure rises accompanying cP high pressure that will build across the middle Atlantic. Post-frontal ascent related to the pattern described above will favor periods of rain, widespread overcast, and decreasing temperatures through the 40s-50s throughout the day Fri, as classical, diabatically-enhanced cold air damming matures over the region. Temperatures will steady in the lwr-mid 40s Fri night, with continued periods of rain that will become relatively heaviest and steadiest by Sat morning, as influence from the aforementioned, vigorous srn stream perturbation increases. Associated rainfall amounts this period are forecast to range from around one half inch over the srn/cntl Coastal Plain to one to one and a half inches over the Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 PM Thursday... A vigorous srn stream perturbation will move from the lwr MS Valley to the srn middle Atlantic Sat through early Sun, during which time it will interact with an underlying, strong lwr/mid-level frontal zone that will move from the TN Valley and Carolinas swd to the Gulf Coast. Widespread rain and overcast, a raw nely breeze, and a small diurnal temperature range will result amid continued classical, diabatically-enhanced cold air damming over cntl NC through early Sat night. Temperatures on Sat will be 20-25 F below average and in the mid-upr 40s, which may result in a record low max at FAY of 48 F on 4/8. Gradual drying/clearing from the northwest will occur late Sat night through early Sun, as the srn stream perturbation lifts newd and the lwr/mid-level frontal zone collapses swd. An additional one half inch of rain across the nrn Piedmont to two to two and half inches over the Sandhills and srn/cntl Coastal Plain will result, as will a risk of minor/poor drainage and subsequent minor river flooding. The remainder of the medium range period will feature a developing Rex block over the ern US, characterized by a closed and cutoff low forecast to develop across the lwr MS Valley and cntl Gulf coast, and a blocking ridge from the mid MS Valley to the middle Atlantic. Initially strong (1030-1035 mb) and chilly surface high pressure over the middle Atlantic will gradually weaken and modify overhead through mid-week. Before it does so, it will likely result in middle 30s morning temperatures over most of the Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain Mon and perhaps also Tue morning, with an associated risk of frost. That cool period will be short-lived, however, as temperatures are expected to increase well into the 70s through mid- week, to around 80 F by Thu, which will be back to 15-20 F above average. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 755 PM Thursday... TAF period: All terminals should start with VFR conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected around the KRDU area through midnight. Showers will redevelop later tonight and continue through the day Friday. CIGS will drop to MVFR then IFR later tonight and continue Friday. VSBYS will be reduced to IFR with rain and fog for most of Friday. Outlook: Expect an extended period of rain and MVFR/IFR restrictions continuing until Sunday morning, after which time rain should move out from northwest to southeast and VFR conditions will eventually return. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THU 4/6 RDU 93 in 1967 GSO 89 in 2010 FAY 91 in 2010 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THU 4/6 RDU 65 in 1967 GSO 65 in 1967 FAY 64 in 1945 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...Badgett/Green CLIMATE...RAH