Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/07/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
607 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Another round of moderate to isolated heavy rain will occur
tonight through Friday morning. The CWA remains in a marginal risk
for severe weather through Friday morning. Scattered disorganized
activity will occur, fed by ample moisture, with a few stronger
storms possible. The main threat will be locally heavy rain,
however, resulting in mostly nuisance type flooding.
There is a marginal (all except the lower Valley) to slight
(ranchlands) risk of excessive rainfall through Friday morning. A
disturbance will move overhead tonight and will be strong enough
to stimulate elevated convection. Rain amounts could be one to two
inches in an hour or two, but the active area of heavy rain
should slide east to southeast beginning from the mid to upper
valley and ending across east and southeast sections. The HRRR
leaves extreme southeast areas like Brownsville out of the higher
precip amounts, however.
This will be followed by general thunderstorms Friday during the
day. Rain chances will slowly diminish Friday and Friday night,
though a stubborn coastal trough will keep low cloud cover around
and will prevent a total drying out in the short term.
Some cold air advection will continue tonight, with lows in the
50s. Friday will remain cool, with highs mainly in the 60s to
possibly a few lower 70s. Low temps Friday night will again mainly
be in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Easter Sunday is forecast to be a pleasant rain-free day with
highs in the upper 70s with mostly cloudy skies. The beginning of
next week starts off with mid-level ridging but a trough quickly
moves over the CWA by Tuesday and appears to try to swing a weak
cold front through Deep South Texas on Wednesday. It`s too early
to tell if the front will make it all the way the CWA. However,
the trough will bring a chance for rain Monday and Tuesday. The
low sticks around over the southeast for the rest of the period
and causes our winds to turn east to southeast through Thursday.
Temperatures will be a couple of degrees below normal this
upcoming week. Highs will be in the lower 80s for the week with
lows in the upper 50s and 60s. The start of next week will be
mostly cloudy but once the front moves through on Wednesday, skies
clear out for the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Ceilings are expected to bounce between MVFR and IFR the next few
hours until showers and thunderstorms start developing. IFR,
perhaps LIFR, conditions are expected to prevail once the showers
or thunderstorms begin later tonight into early Friday morning.
Isolated showers remain in the forecast periodically during the
day Friday as IFR to MVFR conditions continue. Winds generally
come out of the north to northwest for the duration of the TAF
package.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Now through Friday Night...Wave heights are just now dropping below
seven feet. Thus, let the Gulf SCA expire. Moderate to fresh north
winds will continue in the short term. Low end small craft advisory
conditions will be possible at times.
Saturday through Thursday...Marine conditions are expected to be
favorable for the long term period. Rain is forecast over the Gulf
Waters to start the week ahead of the next weak front. Seas stay
around 2 to 4 feet with east to southeasterly gusts around 10 to
15 knots. Small Craft Exercise Caution may be needed periodically
throughout the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 68 56 70 59 / 40 80 50 30
HARLINGEN 67 55 70 58 / 40 90 60 30
MCALLEN 63 55 67 59 / 40 90 50 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 62 54 66 57 / 40 90 60 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 59 71 63 / 40 80 60 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 56 72 60 / 40 90 60 40
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ150-155-170-
175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....65-Soria
AVIATION...58-Reese
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
533 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Key messages:
- Locally heavy rainfall possible for most of south Texas tonight
- Marginal risk for severe storms (large hail) across the area
tonight
Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows the deep moisture convergence
increasing over inland portions of south Texas along the 925 to
850 mb layer frontogenesis axis. Satellite imagery shows an
area of convection increasing in northeast Mexico attributed to
the large scale lift associated with the left exit region of the
upper jet. SPC mesoanalysis also shows MUCAPE values from 1000
to 1500 J/kg in place from the eastern Brush Country to the coast.
With adequate 0-6 km shear of 40-45 knots, some of the storms
could produce large hail tonight. HRRR and SPC HREF are in
agreement with convection increasing by early this evening in
strong upper level divergence zone overlaying the low level
convergence zone across south Texas. Precipitable water values
will range from 1.5 inches west to near 1.9 inches along the
coast. With the steering flow being parallel to the convergence
axis, expect storms could train across the same areas over the
coastal plains, similar to what happened last night over the
Brush Country. Will mention locally heavy rainfall possible for
all but the western Brush Country for tonight.
Most of the hi-res models have the strongest convection moving
into the coastal waters late tonight into Friday morning, but there
will be lingering shower activity left over inland. Models show a
secondary short wave trough moving out of northeast Mexico on Friday
with the upper level divergence increasing again in the left exit
region of the upper jet. Hi-res models show convection forming
again across the northern counties during the afternoon. The
temperatures will continue to be below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
The weather forecast is expected to be predominately quiet with
temperatures gradually warming into early next week. Zonal 500 hPa
heights are expected across the Southern Plains through Monday when
a trough is forecast to dig into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
become cutoff during the middle part of next week. Mid-level support
for ascent due to cyclonic vorticity advection combined with PWAT
forecast to be 1.0"-1.3" (between the 50th and 75th percentile of
climatology) will support a low chance (< 20%) for measurable
rainfall during Monday through Wednesday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Very little change to the aviation forecast for the 00Z TAF cycle.
IFR to LIFR ceilings are expected to prevail across South Texas
with MVFR to IFR visibility possible. Timing will remain
difficult with regards to the lowest conditions as they will
coincide with heavier showers and thunderstorms. Any areas of
convection will produce heavy rainfall. A few storms could be
strong to severe with gusty winds and large hail. Expect reduced
visibility, lowered ceilings, and variable gusty winds in and
around strong storms.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
A moderate to strong offshore flow will continue through this
evening, with an SCA in effect from 6 PM until midnight for the
Gulf waters. Widespread showers and scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected later tonight into Friday. Some of the
storms will be capable of producing large hail and strong wind
gusts. The northeast winds will weaken to moderate late tonight
into Friday.
High pressure over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will result in winds
generally less than 15 knots and seas less than 3 feet through the
weekend into the middle of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 56 65 56 70 / 90 70 30 0
Victoria 55 64 54 70 / 90 80 40 0
Laredo 54 62 56 73 / 90 60 20 0
Alice 54 63 54 72 / 90 70 20 0
Rockport 57 66 58 72 / 90 80 40 10
Cotulla 54 61 57 75 / 80 80 10 0
Kingsville 55 64 54 70 / 90 70 30 0
Navy Corpus 62 67 60 71 / 90 80 40 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ250-255-
270-275.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM....TWH
AVIATION...LS/77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
433 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Key messaging in the short term will be the enhanced fire danger
for Friday afternoon mainly for areas from Elkhart to Wakeeney on
west.
17Z observations are showing sunny skies as a 1032 mb high in
Missouri is providing the subsidence to not allow any cloud cover
to develop. A lee side trough and surface low is developing in
eastern Colorado which will aid in some wind gusts this afternoon
but will be the bigger catalyst for Friday`s winds. In the upper
levels a large trough with a 110 kt jet streak is exiting western
Kansas with another shortwave trough developing in the desert
southwest.
Tonight overall should be quiet as the high pressure center in
Missouri will keep the skies clear and the pressure gradient with
the surface low in Colorado should keep the winds out of the south
through the night. With relatively mild boundary layer air we
should have slightly warmer overnight lows as we fall into the low
30s.
Friday as mentioned will be mainly a fire danger concern. SPC
outlook puts an enhanced risk across much of southwest Kansas with
ensemble members and Fosberg index putting the greater confidence
of a better fire weather environment from Elkhart to Wakeeney on
west. Since models seem to under perform winds and dewpoints...I
went more with the HRRR idea on dewpoints and increased the wind
speeds in the afternoon mainly for areas along the Colorado border
to I-70. This would put the aforementioned area just into red
flag territory with RH values around 10% and wind gusts around
30-35 mph. Overall it should be another mild and sunny day as
highs get into the middle 60s.
Friday night the winds should stay up as the lee side trough in
eastern Colorado stays in place and the lower levels will stay
better mixed. Lows will fall into the middle 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Key messaging in the long term is some subtle shifts to the
weather pattern which will potentially affect temperatures next
week and there is also a small change of some rain and storms for
Sunday.
Saturday we will continue in the pattern of a lee side trough and
surface low in Colorado leading to breezy south winds in the
afternoon and highs reaching into the low 70s.
Sunday an upper level trough will move in from the Rockies during
the day and this will bring in a cold front and push the surface
low eastward into southwest Kansas. There will be some modest
moisture ahead of the front with mid term models hinting at some
50 degree dewpoints towards Pratt and Med Lodge. NAM guidance
along with the global models are now all showing some convection
developing along the front in the mid to late afternoon for areas
east of Dodge City. Bufkit profiles during this time are showing
around 500-700 J/kg of CAPE which could lead to some isolated
storms. Ensembles are also looking in more agreement of some QPF
from Sunday afternoon through the night for these areas so I have
a little more confidence we could see some rain for the lucky few
who happen to get under these storms.
Early next week both deterministic and ensemble models are
showing an upper low developing along the Gulf of Mexico and a
ridge trying to build into the central plains. However the
introduction of this low is going to make temperature forecasting
a bit more difficult. For instance on Monday with the passage of
the front and the upper level winds staying out of the northeast
under the influence of the developing upper low we could see a
scenario of northeast winds at the surface during the day which
would temper the afternoon highs a few degrees. With the main
upper level winds in Canada during the middle of the week the
upper low won`t have much steering aloft that it will just slowly
move east during the midweek which will keep western Kansas on a
boundary between the very warm temperatures in the Rockies versus
the cooler air in the southeast. With this setup I was comfortable
lowering highs a bit on Monday and then sticking with the middle
of the road guidance for highs during the middle of the week as
we see how this pattern emerges.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 433 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Excellent flying weather is expected through 15z Fri with VFR/SKC
and light SE winds prevailing. After 15z Fri, south winds will
increase at all airports, gusting 28-32 kts, with the strongest
winds at GCK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Enhanced to near critical fire weather conditions are likely for
Friday afternoon as many areas in southwest Kansas will see
relative humidity values fall to below 15%. The strongest winds
look to be from an Elkhart to Wakeeney line on west with 25-35 mph
winds out of the south with gusts to 45 mph. Farther south and
east the winds will still be as breezy but not as strong. Winds
will be in the order of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 66 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 28 66 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 31 65 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 28 66 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 30 68 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
P28 31 66 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
Friday for KSZ030-031-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Tatro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
959 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Fair weather will continue overnight as surface high pressure
continues to build into the region while the ridge`s center slides
west to east across the Great Lakes...continuing to provide dry
low/mid levels and light northerly winds. A broad 150-175 kt upper-
level jet will continue to flow from the Upper Midwest and across
the Great Lakes...with central Indiana`s proximity near the jet`s
right-entrance region continuing to promote upper level cloudiness.
Upper clouds will decrease towards dawn as the jet both weakens and
slowly slides east. Back at the surface, light northerly flow will
hold the slightly below normal temperature regime over the
region...although upper clouds should prevent more than a 15-20
degree drop from Thursday`s max to dawn Friday. Lows tonight will
range from the mid 30s across the northern tier to upper 30s south
of the I-70 corridor.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023
* Dry and tranquil conditions through the end of the week
* Warming trend begins tomorrow
An extended stretch of warmer and quiet weather is on the way for
much of Indiana tomorrow through next week. Different story this
afternoon though as the main cold front which pushed through
yesterday is well south of the region and satellite imagery reveals
high clouds still streaming in overhead from the southwest. Just
north of the region, a strong 170 kt jet streak still persists with
Indiana in the right entrance region of it. Strong upper level
moisture advection within the baroclinic zone has kept higher clouds
around much of the day with the thickest cloud cover across southern
portions of Indiana. In the lower levels, high pressure is centered
over the Central Plains resulting in light northerly flow across
Indiana. Latest IND ACARS soundings shows the saturated layer
between 200mb and 400mb where the high cloud deck is located. Closer
to the surface, soundings reveal much drier air through the low and
mid levels due to subsidence under the high pressure system. Cold
air advection behind the front and increased cloud cover have lead
to below average temperatures across the state today with many
locations struggling to reach the 50 degree mark. Lowered highs this
afternoon accordingly as temperatures have been slow to rise. Expect
the increase in cloud cover to keep temperatures slightly elevated
tonight, so kept tonight`s lows above NBM guidance in the mid to
upper 30s for most places. Best chance at clearing skies is across
North Central Indiana where lows may approach freezing in some spots.
The warming trend begins tomorrow as high pressure shifts
northeastward towards the Great Lakes region. Upper level winds and
moisture advection weaken through the day tomorrow, so expect upper
level clouds to thin out and begin to clear out from north to south.
Low and mid level winds shift from northerly to easterly with 850 mb
temps steady around 0-2C. With an increase in sunshine tomorrow and
lack of cold air advection, expect high temperatures to reach the
upper 50s to low 60s. Latest RAP forecast soundings show deep mixing
tomorrow afternoon up to 7 kft agl with steep low level lapse rates
and the possibility of drier air mixing to the surface. Lowered
afternoon dew points to NBM 10th percentile from 14z to 23z
tomorrow, which brings Min RH values down into the 20s. With little
to no pressure gradient and weak winds aloft, do not expect winds to
increase much over 10 kts during the afternoon hours. Despite low RH
values, do not think there will be an elevated fire threat.
&&
.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Quiet weather is expected throughout the long term, with high
pressure in control through most of the period.
A weak upper trough will move through around Monday, but this
feature will not have any deep moisture to work it. Also, there now
looks to be little if any surface reflection. Thus, have removed the
small chances for rain that had been in Monday and Monday night.
Temperatures will gradually moderate early in the long term. Friday
night will have lows in the mid to upper 30s. For areas in the
southern forecast area where the frost/freeze season has started,
clouds and winds should keep frost at bay there Friday night. Will
keep an eye on it.
As high pressure settles in to the southeast of central Indiana
later in the period, southwest flow will bring in well above normal
temperatures. Highs from Tuesday through Thursday look to be in the
70s, with perhaps near 80 degree readings by Thursday.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Impacts:
* None
Discussion:
VFR conditions will be the rule across central Indiana as all
terminals remain amid a broad mid/low-level dry conveyor through
Friday. Seasonably strong surface high pressure presently centered
along the Upper Mississippi Valley will promote north-northwesterly
winds sustained at/under 7 kts this evening.
The surface ridge will slowly slide to the eastern Great Lakes by
the end of the TAF period...with winds correspondingly veering to
east-northeasterly after dawn Friday...sustained around 7-9 knots
after 14z. High clouds over the region are expected to decrease
through AM hours FridaFair weather will continue overnight as surface high pressure
continues to build into the region while the ridge`s center slides
west to east across the Great Lakes...continuing to provide dry
low/mid levels and light northerly winds. A broad 150-175 kt upper-
level jet will continue to flow from the Upper Midwest and across
the Great Lakes...with central Indiana`s proximity near the jet`s
right-entrance region continuing to promote upper level cloudiness.
Upper clouds will decrease towards dawn as the jet both weakens and
slowly slides east. Back at the surface, light northerly flow will
hold the slightly below normal temperature regime over the
region...although upper clouds should prevent more than a 15-20
degree drop from Thursday`s max to dawn Friday. Lows tonight will
range from the mid 30s across the northern tier to upper 30s south
of the I-70 corridor. y.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...AGM
Short Term...CM
Long Term...50
Aviation...AGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
900 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Radar and satellite shows Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over
Southwest Louisiana finally drifting eastward. Radar estimates of
6 to 10 inches from Hackberry across Calcasieu Lake to near Grand
Lake, with 4 to 6 inches further north across Southern Calcasieu
Parish. This, and the previous MCS earlier this afternoon further
east, continues along the stalled frontal boundary. Latest short
term guidance shows this MCS continuing to move east later this
evening into the early morning hours across South Central
Louisiana, with another round likely to enter across Southeast
Texas/Southwest Louisiana near or shortly before daybreak Friday.
WPC has expanded the Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall eastward.
With the latest trends, have expanded the Flood Watch eastward to
Avoyelles, St. Landry, Lafayette, and Vermilion parishes through
Saturday morning. Latest updates were only minor changes, but
forecast generally on track.
08/DML
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Forecast remains on track this afternoon as showers and
thunderstorms have rapidly expanded across the coastal waters and
further inland. Expect showers/storms to continue to develop and
fill in across SETX and SWLA as we move into the evening. Some of
the showers/storms could produce very heavy rain as ingredients
for heavy rain continue to improve through the evening. Currently
PWATs are increasing from 1.3" this morning to 1.5" to 1.7" with
modest moisture advection. Meanwhile, a disturbance is tracking
SW to NE along and just west of the stalled frontal bndry. This
will likely aid in the development and maintenance of storms
overnight.
Based on the trends and most recent CAMs, expanded the Flood
Watch south and east to include a greater area. CAMs from 12-18
hrs ago and the most current runs have showed an increasingly
wetter signal. The 12Z HRRR total qpf through tomorrow evening
shows 5"-7" with localized 7"-10" of rain across SETX, which is
backed up by the WRF NSSL. To further add support, the HREF PMM
shows a bullseye of 3"-7" inches of rain, with HREF LPMM showing
localized amounts of 7"-10+". Latest NBM guidance has also showed
a noticeable bump in QPF, leading to increasing confidence of very
heavy rain this evening through tomorrow. Looking over everything,
4"-7" inches with locally higher should be reasonable for
SETX/SWLA with 1"-3" and locally higher amounts elsewhere across
the CWA.
In addition to the heavy rain and flood threat, we remain under a
Marginal Risk for severe weather through the evening. Any storm
that can maintain itself north of the front could pose a marginal
hail/wind threat. While any storm that forms SE/along the stalled
frontal bndry could pose a brief tornado risk until instability
wanes later this evening. In fact, we have already seen several
rotating storms over the past couple hours.
Heavy rain/storms will continue overnight with a downward trend
by tomorrow morning as the best forcing lifts NE of the CWA. Then
the focus shifts to Acadiana as the sfc low moves from WSW to ENE
along/south of the stalled frontal bndry. This may keep showers
and storms through Friday into Saturday morning/afternoon.
However there remains some uncertainty as to how close the sfc
low will track to the coast and the axis of heaviest rain.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
The start of the forecast period will be nice as Easter Sunday will
be a warm and sunny. In the upper-levels, winds will be calm with no
active weather expected. However, in the mid-level, around 850 mb,
RH will stay high leading to mostly cloudy skies. At the surface
high pressure will build into our area further pushing us towards
calm weather. Temperatures will be seasonal with winds out of the
east to northeast through midweek.
Around Wednesday, models are in good agreement that an upper-level
jet will set up on the gulf coast. Models have started to show a MCS
developing somewhere along the gulf coast, west of New Orleans.
There is some indication that the MCS may surface low may become
stacked at the 850 and 500 mb levels. This is a fairly new change in
the model guidance so confidence remains quiet low. So what does
this mean for our region, some more clouds and showers but not much
else. Winds may shift and become more northernly That being said
the confidence in the long term forecast remains low, so changes can
be expected in future forecasts.
The extended forecast, past Thursday, shows another round of high
pressure with calm conditions and seasonable temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue
across the region this evening and overnight in response to a
nearly stationary frontal boundary and an upper level disturbance
moving across the region. Ceilings will fluctuate between MVFR
outside of storms to IFR near and within them. Breezy
northwesterly gradient winds will persist away from storms with
higher gusts near storms.
Expect storm activity to become less widespread by midday Friday
before increasing again Friday evening.
Jones
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
A stationary boundary has parked itself in the coastal waters off
Cameron Parish extending inland to the northeast. Expect multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain, small hail,
and gusty winds through the night. Moderate easterly winds today
will shift northeast to north by tonight and continue into the
weekend. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued tonight to account
for the increase in gusty winds in the nearshore waters off of
Sabine Pass. The front will remain nearly stationary into the
weekend, before pushing away and dissipating.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 53 61 53 67 / 90 90 70 30
LCH 59 69 57 70 / 90 80 70 30
LFT 62 73 62 72 / 80 80 80 50
BPT 60 69 58 72 / 90 90 60 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for LAZ027>033-044-073-074-
141>143-152-241>243-252.
TX...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
516-615-616.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ450.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
619 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
The forecast for today remains on track with clearing skies and
temperatures in the mid-50s into the mid 60s. Skies will remain
mostly clear through much of the night, and winds will become
light, allowing for excellent radiational cooling and temperatures
to fall a few degrees lower than what we saw this morning.
A shortwave trough, noted on 2 PM mid-level water vapor and RAP
analysis near Baja California, will generally weaken/lift as it
moves to the east towards the region. As the shortwave trough
moves east and northeast, a cyclone will form over southeastern
Colorado, and a surface high over eastern Kansas will move to the
east. This will result in winds becoming more southeasterly,
advecting some additional moisture into the region. The combo of
the upslope flow and weak moist isentropic upglide will bring
increased clouds and the chance of light precipitation to the
southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains Friday
afternoon. This activity will generally be light as the sub-cloud
layer will be relatively dry.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Confidence is increasing in a more unsettled pattern developing
Sunday and Monday followed by cooler highs through the middle of
next week as an upper low parks itself over the Lower MS Valley.
Until then, we`ll be shaking off a few showers Friday night as a
decaying trough in westerly flow passes through. Guidance has
trended lower with ascent and subsequently QPF across our region
as a 700mb high now retrogrades near the Rolling Plains on Friday.
This would effectively delay a great deal of elevated moisture
from reaching the CWA, but can`t rule out some showers from
grazing our southernmost zones Friday night before ascent
diminishes behind the trough. Saturday features cool surface
ridging departing the region under westerly flow. Barring some
residual clouds around 700mb, mostly sunny skies and southerly
winds should push highs into the 70s.
Things turn a bit more interesting on Easter Sunday as shortwave
trough sweeps across the Rockies closely followed by another
impulse. Ensembles are in good agreement with these waves phasing
over the southern Great Plains Sunday night ahead of yet another
shortwave on Monday resulting in a cutoff low across eastern TX and
LA. Although PWAT anomalies will already be pushing +1/2" by Sunday
morning, precip chances become better defined later in the day on
Sunday and especially overnight with the arrival of the second
and more dynamic shortwave trough in NW flow. NBM`s 20-30 PoPs
during this time were massaged a bit to better align with
deterministic guidance. Inserted thunder as well given sufficient
MLCAPE pushing 800-1000 J/kg at times. These cool NW flow regimes
with low CAPE can still breed some healthy convection especially
given 30-40 knots of deep layer shear, so can`t rule out some
strong cells at times complete with locally heavy rain.
By Monday, another shortwave dropping south through the southern
plains may be enough to garner additional rounds of showers and a
few thunderstorms mainly off the Caprock. As the upper low sets up
to our east, cool and drier northerly flow through the middle of the
week should keep highs much cooler than originally expected. The NBM
has yet to fully weight the recent shift in guidance toward this
cooler pattern, so opted for CONSMOS highs from Sunday through
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
VFR conditions and a continuation of generally modest east-
southeast winds can be expected through the TAF period.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Post-frontal easterly upslope flow has maintained weak cold
advection and below normal temperatures today, with highs this
afternoon on target to top out in the 60s for most, with 70s through
the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. Latest water vapor imagery and 500
hpa RAP analysis indicate a shortwave trough currently making slow
progress across Baja into northern Mexico. Ahead of this feature,
southwesterly flow aloft has resulted in a plume of subtropical
moisture to be routed across northern Mexico across the Texas Hill
Country toward the Middle Mississippi Valley. Tonight, the
aforementioned trough will develop a negative tilt as it finally
begins to translate from northwestern Mexico across Arizona and New
Mexico. As this trough progresses, midlevel flow across the region
will amplify, serving to route additional moisture west-
northwestward across the area. This will be evidenced by increasing
clouds late tonight, as well as the potential for a few showers
toward morning, especially across the Lower Trans Pecos, Stockton
Plateau, and Big Bend. Despite the increase in cloud cover, tonight
will be chilly once again given cool easterly surface flow, with
lows in the 30s and 40s for most.
On Friday, the trough will dampen substantially as it ejects
northeastward over the region toward the Red River Valley and
Central Plains. Despite its dampening, increased ascent associated
with its passage as well as continued moisture transport
northwestward across the region coincident with a weak cold front
will yield increasing precipitation chances areawide. Currently, QPF
remains low, thus substantial rainfall is not expected, though a
shortwave passing in the southwesterly flow aloft could produce a
few thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening,
across the Davis Mountains/adjacent areas and eastern Permian Basin,
respectively. Severe weather is not expected, though lightning,
brief downpours, and gusty winds are possible. In addition to rain
chances, a brief transition to a wintry mix will be possible across
the highest terrain of the Guadalupe Mountains where temperatures
will be colder, but given light QPF, little to no accumulation is
expected. Friday will be the coolest day of the forecast, and highs
in the middle 50s to lower 60s for most will come in roughly 15-20
degrees below normal for early April. Heading into Friday night, the
dampened trough and shortwave will continue to progress
northeastward, with precipitation diminishing accordingly. Light
easterly flow will continue, though partly to mostly cloudy skies
will persist, with lows dropping into the middle 30s to middle 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
A return to near and slightly above normal temperatures is expected
through the long term period. At the start of the period, the upper-
level pattern is quasi-zonal. Temperatures will initially be
slightly below normal with widespread 70s Saturday afternoon.
Continued return flow keeps overnight lows mild in the upper 40s and
low 50s. A mid-level shortwave trough begins to amplify as it moves
into the Southern Plains east of the region. This puts us to the
rear of this feature. Regardless, with some forcing for ascent and
increasing moisture with continued return flow, a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms may materialize. Temperatures also climb a
few degrees during the afternoon to near normal temperatures in the
upper 70s. Continued mild overnight temperatures in the upper 40s
and low 50s are expected. As the trough east of the region begins to
cut-off from the main flow, weak shortwaves wrap around this
feature. An additional slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
exists Monday afternoon in response to one of these weak shortwaves.
Temperatures remain steady in the upper 70s for the majority. Mid-
level ridging will try to amplify west of this trough heading into
the middle of next week. This ridging is currently forecast to nudge
temperatures slightly above normal with low 80s becoming more
prevalent across the region. Overall a warm and pleasant pattern
with some much needed precipitation potential.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Light to modest easterly winds will continue the next 24 hours.
CIGs BKN035-050 will move into the area starting around 12Z with
MVFR CIGs BKN020-030 moving into FST as well. These conditions
will then persist through the end of the TAF period.
Hennig
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
A Grassland Fire Danger Statement is in effect through late this
afternoon for everyone outside of the Big Bend and Eastern Permian
Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through late
this afternoon due to dry conditions and dry fuels across much of
the area. Persistent return flow allows for several days of good
to excellent overnight recovery with afternoon minimum relative
humidity remaining above critical values after today. 20 ft winds
will remain mostly light across the region. Fire weather concerns
remain low as a result. ERCs were hovering around the 70th-89th
percentile but persistent moisture return should decrease ERCs to
more around the 50th-69th percentile, further reducing fire
weather concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 41 61 43 74 / 10 40 20 0
Carlsbad 38 58 41 74 / 0 30 10 0
Dryden 48 56 48 72 / 20 30 10 0
Fort Stockton 43 53 43 73 / 10 50 10 0
Guadalupe Pass 36 52 40 70 / 0 30 10 0
Hobbs 35 58 37 71 / 0 30 20 0
Marfa 35 55 33 75 / 10 40 10 0
Midland Intl Airport 42 58 42 73 / 10 50 20 0
Odessa 40 58 43 71 / 10 50 20 0
Wink 40 57 41 74 / 0 40 20 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1050 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Update to include the 06z aviation discussion.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- Winds continue to decrease through this evening.
- Slight chance of a wintry mix and freezing rain for parts of East
Central Minnesota and Western Wisconsin late Friday into Friday
night.
Only a few scattered high clouds have been meandering their way
eastward across Southeastern Minnesota this afternoon. Otherwise
clear blue skies being reported across the area. Temepratures still
reluctant to surpass the freezing mark across Central MN courtesy of
the snow pack whereas farther south temperature observations in the
upper 30s low 40s. Cloud cover are expected to increase in coverage
overnight tonight as a weak shortwave will proceed across the area.
Precip impacts look to be null as forecast soundings looking to dry.
Winds are expected to decrease tonight as they shift in the
clockwise direction to the east by sunrise Friday morning.
On Friday upper-level ridging builds just off to our west. Ahead of
this feature, another shortwave develops MN/NoDak border which could
produce enough low-level forcing for mixed precipitation in Eastern
MN and Western Wisconsin. Short term RAP and HRRR guidance did show
signal for a wintry mix of precipitation mainly along line from
Wright County, MN to Rusk County, WI Notably, there is a slight
potential of freezing rain in these areas tonight into early
tomorrow morning before sunrise. The extent of the freezing rain
threat will greatly depend on how far north warm air can advect
northward.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- An aggressive warming trend will take place through late next week
with highs well into the 70s, maybe some low 80s, and nearing
daily records.
Building heights on a synoptic scale beginning this weekend will be
tempered a bit by a passing shortwaves early Saturday and Sunday.
Precipitation should be east of the area to start Saturday and skies
will clear by afternoon. Increasing southeast or southerly slow and a
snow line that is expected to retreat 30 to 50 miles northwest of
where it is now (roughly from St James to Eau Claire) should allow
for maximum mixing across southern/eastern Minnesota and parts of WI.
Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s should be reached in those
areas, but remaining in the 40s to lower 50s where snow still exists.
The second shortwave will swing through Sunday. As this disturbance
begins to impinge on amplified ridging over the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley, frontogenesis will become strong and should be enough to
develop at least a broken band of showers. Moisture transport is not
great and instability is nil, so hesitant to forecast greater than
50 PoPs for now.
Next week will be characterized by a deep trough over the west and a
cut off low over the southeast, with amplified ridging in between
stretching from the southern High Plains northeast to the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes. This blocking pattern will allow warmth
to build each day to the end of the forecast period. As the warm
airmass continues to rapidly eat away at the remaining snow pack,
the temperature contrast between the snow and non-snow areas will
decrease so that by Thursday highs may be in the 70s area wide. NBM
seems to be handling this warm up very well and very few adjustments
were needed, despite its anomaly. A discussion about the flooding
threat from snowmelt can be found in the hydrology section below.
Thermal ridging will remain centered overhead Wednesday and
Thursday. 925 mb temps on all deterministic guidance has increased
to at least +20C, signaling a decent chance at 80. Record highs
Wednesday and Thursday are 83 and 84, respectively at MSP, 82 and 81
at St Cloud, and 82 and 80 at Eau Claire.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
VFR with clear skies and light winds tonight. Winds will shift to the
east on Friday with mostly high clouds. Friday evening into Friday
night will have a chance for some rain or snow, best chances in
Wisconsin. Farther west will see less chance for precipitation, but
should still see some lower clouds with MVFR CIGS returning.
KMSP... VFR and light winds through the period. Chance for some rain
about 20% chance late Friday evening into Friday night.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Chc morning MVFR. Wind SE 15G25 kts.
Sun...VFR. Chc afternoon MVFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Updated at 350 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
The rapidly rising temperatures will lead to rapidly melting snow,
and a start to the flood season in earnest. The rate of melt may be
something the river models has a hard time with, given the rarity of
this kind of temperature profile and this amount of snow. Other
uncertainties exist in how much water will the soil be able to hold,
and will the soil infiltration rate be quickly overcome by the rate
of melting; how much water is actually out there in the snowpack,
given the difficulty in measuring SWE this season; how quickly will
we lose the ice in the rivers; how long will the snow hang on before
it is all gone; and of course whether we wind up with some heavier
rainfall in week 2.
Right now, we could see low areas, small streams and tributaries in
all basins outside of southern MN counties start to see "areal"
flooding by as early as Sunday/Monday, with larger rivers following
next week, and the mainstem Mississippi/St. Croix/Chippewa over a
week away. Coordinated with DLH/ARX on messaging, highlighting in
HWO and AFD for now, along with flood outlook story map as a web
headline.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RMD
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...NDC
HYDROLOGY...CCS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
915 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Also meant to mention that for locations experiencing rainfall
tonight, total rainfall amounts are expected to be less than one
quarter of an inch. Enough instability noted late evening through
early overnight hours tonight for locations south of I-40
Corridor approaching TN/AL Border Region that isolated
thunderstorm development could occur.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Tweaked current hourly temperature, dewpoint, and sky conditions
grids blending them with previously forecasted late evening/
early overnight associated hourly gridded values. Current
regional temperature trends continue to generally be in line
with forecasted lows. Overall, temperatures are not expect to
drop much from current values. 07/00Z HRRR model solution
initialized best of all CAMs analyzed and depicts a similar
gridded pop forecast as afternoon suite of forecast products
issuances. Some minor differences noted here and there, but it
still leans toward a realistic weather pattern evolution through
nighttime hours tonight. 07/00Z HRRR model solution depicting
well this early portion of mid evening hours break in shower
activity currently being experienced across most of mid state
region in contrast to previous 06/12Z model runs. As remainder of
mid to late evening hours progress, showers will be slowly moving
in from southwest spreading mainly across southern and eastern
portions of mid state region through early overnight hours. As
latest 07/00Z HRRR model solution only goes through 07/07Z(2 AM
CDT) tonight, leaned toward 06/23Z HRRR model solution for
remaining overnight hours which continues best moisture advection
across southern and eastern portions. Remainder of forecast
continues to be on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
It`s been kind of a cool, dreary day across most of Middle TN. Our
current cold front completed its journey through the mid-state
earlier this morning and with light to moderate rain still coming
down across the western 2/3 of the area, temperatures are holding
firm in the 40s and 50s pretty much area-wide. We should finally get
a break in the precip, at least for a short while, late this
afternoon or early this evening, but we aren`t done with the rain
from this system. Even with the front well into Alabama, moisture
will linger across the area for the next 36 hours and as it does so,
multiple waves will bring more showers to our southern and eastern
zones. Rainfall totals are relatively light and not focused where
we`ve had the heaviest of rains over the last 24 hours, so no
flooding is expected, but rains may very well stick around through
tomorrow and may not exit Middle TN until first thing Saturday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Once rains do exit the area Saturday, the remainder of the holiday
weekend will be dry with very spring-like temperatures.
On Monday, models are fairly consistent with the development of a
shortwave that will develop across the center of the country and dig
into the Gulf States. This development will pull moisture northward,
but dry conditions should persist through the first half of the
week. Temperatures will remain seasonal in the low 70s Monday and
Tuesday, but by Wednesday, we`ll start to warm up. Highs should
climb towards 80 degrees and finally on Thursday, rain chances will
return to the mid-state. Rainfall totals look pretty light and as of
right now no severe is expected, giving us a much needed break from
that category of weather forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Cold front now located south of the mid state. 850 mb boundary,
however, will hang up across northern AL through the taf period.
This will offer some additional low level convergence to enable
the convective shower activity to continue across mainly southern
and eastern middle TN. Look for nearly continuous -shra for CSV,
with vcnty for BNA, and only an initial portion of vcnty precip
inclusion for the CKV area. Otw, ifr cigs will persist for eastern
middle TN, but should lift for other areas by 08Z or so.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 47 60 47 63 / 40 30 30 30
Clarksville 44 62 44 64 / 10 10 10 10
Crossville 44 52 44 56 / 90 70 60 50
Columbia 44 58 46 61 / 70 50 30 30
Cookeville 45 56 46 59 / 80 60 40 40
Jamestown 42 54 42 57 / 80 50 40 40
Lawrenceburg 45 57 47 61 / 80 60 40 40
Murfreesboro 45 59 47 62 / 80 50 40 40
Waverly 44 60 45 61 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
950 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm, southwesterly flow will result ahead of a cold
front that will move southeast across the region tonight. Chilly and
damp high pressure, and associated cold air damming conditions, will
follow for Friday through Saturday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 950 PM tonight...
Severe threat has passed.
Turning much cooler with rain developing later tonight and
Friday morning.
Outflows and the seabreeze were coming together over the Triangle
Area this evening. Scattered to numerous showers/storms have moved
into the Roanoke Rapids area northeast into southeast VA. Isolated
showers continue down the boundary from near Rocky Mount to Raleigh
to Southern Pines. The latest HRRR still shows an uptick in
showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight along the current
boundary. Then, the more stable air advects in from the NE
and an overrunning pattern will ensue toward daybreak with rain
developing. Expect lows from the upper 40s north ranging into the
60s south (but the readings in the south will be falling by around
daybreak, as well).
Previous discussion as of 225 PM Thursday...
As of 2pm, the approaching cold front extended from the mid-Atlantic
down into western North Carolina and the Gulf of Mexico. Looking at
surface observations, the front is between Boone/Hickory and to the
east of Asheville. Just in the last hour, a line of showers and
thunderstorms has developed from southwest Virginia into western
North Carolina. The line of thunderstorms will move east along with
the front through the afternoon, reaching the Triad for the evening
commute and moving into the western Triangle around sunset. A small
portion of the forecast area is in a slight (level 2 of 5) risk for
severe weather, while an area roughly northwest of US-1 is in a
marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather. The threat for
tornadoes appears to be minimal; the primary threats this afternoon
would be large hail and damaging winds. The primary limiting factor
locally is that the strongest wind shear appears as if it will
remain to our west across the mountains. As the night progresses,
the front will slow in its eastward progress, with the front likely
hanging up along the southern border of the forecast area sunrise
Friday morning. Likely to categorical pops are forecast everywhere
except southernmost locations. Expect a wide gradient in overnight
lows - across the north, Roxboro could drop into the upper 40s,
while to the south of the front, overnight lows will remain in the
lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Thursday...
A vigorous srn stream perturbation over Baja CA and the Gulf of CA
this afternoon will pivot newd across the srn Plains Fri and into
the mid-South and lwr MS Valley Fri night. It will do so on the nwrn
periphery of an initially highly-anomalous, 591 dam sub-tropical
ridge centered at 500 mb over the FL peninsula today, which will
weaken and collapse swd across the Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan
through the forecast period. Between the two, a ribbon of
convectively-enhanced vorticity in swly mid-level flow, and an
underlying strong, lwr/mid-level frontal zone, one now stretching
across the lwr OH and lwr MS Valleys, will settle sewd across the
Southeast, including cntl NC.
At the surface, a cold front will have reached sern NC wwd across
nrn SC, including through or near Sampson Co. in cntl NC, by 12Z
Fri. That front and following markedly chillier air and nely breeze
with surface gusts of 20-30 kts, will then continue swd and reach
srn GA/AL by 12Z Sun, propelled by strong pressure rises
accompanying cP high pressure that will build across the middle
Atlantic.
Post-frontal ascent related to the pattern described above will
favor periods of rain, widespread overcast, and decreasing
temperatures through the 40s-50s throughout the day Fri, as
classical, diabatically-enhanced cold air damming matures over the
region. Temperatures will steady in the lwr-mid 40s Fri night, with
continued periods of rain that will become relatively heaviest and
steadiest by Sat morning, as influence from the aforementioned,
vigorous srn stream perturbation increases. Associated rainfall
amounts this period are forecast to range from around one half inch
over the srn/cntl Coastal Plain to one to one and a half inches over
the Piedmont.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM Thursday...
A vigorous srn stream perturbation will move from the lwr MS Valley
to the srn middle Atlantic Sat through early Sun, during which time
it will interact with an underlying, strong lwr/mid-level frontal
zone that will move from the TN Valley and Carolinas swd to the Gulf
Coast. Widespread rain and overcast, a raw nely breeze, and a small
diurnal temperature range will result amid continued classical,
diabatically-enhanced cold air damming over cntl NC through early
Sat night. Temperatures on Sat will be 20-25 F below average and in
the mid-upr 40s, which may result in a record low max at FAY of 48 F
on 4/8. Gradual drying/clearing from the northwest will occur late
Sat night through early Sun, as the srn stream perturbation lifts
newd and the lwr/mid-level frontal zone collapses swd. An additional
one half inch of rain across the nrn Piedmont to two to two and half
inches over the Sandhills and srn/cntl Coastal Plain will result, as
will a risk of minor/poor drainage and subsequent minor river
flooding.
The remainder of the medium range period will feature a developing
Rex block over the ern US, characterized by a closed and cutoff low
forecast to develop across the lwr MS Valley and cntl Gulf coast,
and a blocking ridge from the mid MS Valley to the middle Atlantic.
Initially strong (1030-1035 mb) and chilly surface high pressure
over the middle Atlantic will gradually weaken and modify overhead
through mid-week. Before it does so, it will likely result in middle
30s morning temperatures over most of the Piedmont and nrn Coastal
Plain Mon and perhaps also Tue morning, with an associated risk of
frost. That cool period will be short-lived, however, as
temperatures are expected to increase well into the 70s through mid-
week, to around 80 F by Thu, which will be back to 15-20 F above
average.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 755 PM Thursday...
TAF period: All terminals should start with VFR conditions.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected around the KRDU
area through midnight. Showers will redevelop later tonight
and continue through the day Friday. CIGS will drop to MVFR then IFR
later tonight and continue Friday. VSBYS will be reduced to IFR with
rain and fog for most of Friday.
Outlook: Expect an extended period of rain and MVFR/IFR restrictions
continuing until Sunday morning, after which time rain should move
out from northwest to southeast and VFR conditions will eventually
return.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
THU 4/6
RDU 93 in 1967
GSO 89 in 2010
FAY 91 in 2010
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
THU 4/6
RDU 65 in 1967
GSO 65 in 1967
FAY 64 in 1945
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...Badgett/Green
CLIMATE...RAH