Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/06/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
905 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
Main update was to examine the ongoing blizzard warnings. Eastern
parts of the CWA are still seeing Blizzard criteria winds and
reduce visibilities. Central portions have seen winds start to
diminish. Thus have let the Blizzard Warning for central portions
expire. Will keep the eastern Blizzard Warning going given the
lingering strong winds.
The surface high that follows this system tonight still looks to
bring colder temperatures. These colder temperatures in the single
digits could even approach record lows for April 6th in some
areas. With the rapid cooling, light winds, and increased low
level moisture from melting snow at least patchy fog is still
possible tonight. RAP is showing this more than any model at the
moment. Have used the RAP visibility guidance to place in at least
patchy fog mention across much of central and western portions.
Eastern portions may be too breezy tonight for fog development.
UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
Main update was decision on the Winter Weather Advisory across the
central. DOT Web cameras in these areas showing drifting snow, but
not a lot of snow lofted. Observations also not showing a lot of
lower visibility from blowing snow. Thus let the Winter Weather
Advisory expire as scheduled at 6 PM CDT. Those in these areas
will still want to check the latest road conditions as there
remains no travel advised in some of these areas.
Blizzard Warning in the central and east are now the remaining
highlights. Winds are still at blizzard levels gusting over 40 mph
in many areas in the warning. Cando and Carrington observations
are still at 1/4 visibility. So current thought is to let these
warnings continue as long as the winds remain elevated.
Otherwise the forecast overall remains on track. There was some
consideration to adding in at least patchy fog late tonight
through Thursday morning. As the high pressure moves through light
winds and mainly clear skies should be found. With the sunny
conditions today there may be just a little boost of lower level
moisture from melting snow. Confidence is still on the lower side
for this occurring. For now will leave out of the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
Winds and precipitation will diminish from west to east this
evening and tonight as low pressure moves off to the northeast.
Some light accumulation (up to an inch or so) will remain possible
across our northeast through this evening (Bottineau, Rolette,
Pierce, and McHenry counties).
Regarding current headlines, we have decided to convert Oliver,
Morton, Grant, and Sioux counties to a Winter Weather Advisory for
blowing snow as conditions continue to improve. We have also
cancelled the advisory for all counties to the west of these. We
will hold onto the Blizzard Warning east of the Missouri River as
we are still seeing periodic blizzard criteria at times via
surface observations and webcams. The bottom line is that the
light is at the end of the tunnel with this storm.
High pressure will start to move in overnight, bringing with it a
clearing sky and cold temperatures. Lows will range from around
zero to the lower teens above. There seems to be at least a chance
for some patchy fog across the west tonight as winds calm and high
pressure moves in, but only a few CAMs are currently showing the
potential. Will leave mention out of the forecast for now, but it
could be something to watch later tonight.
A weak shortwave will move into the southwest and south central
by Thursday morning, which may provide enough lift for some brief
light snow (maybe a little light rain southwest by the
afternoon). We have broad brushed a slight chance to account for
this potential in the gridded forecast but little to no
accumulation is expected.
A gradual warmup will start on Thursday with highs ranging from
the mid 20s over the northeast, to the lower 40s southwest.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
Mainly dry conditions and spring like temperatures highlight the
long term forecast period.
A progressive series of ridges will move through this weekend and
into next week. This will mean a clear pattern change to more
spring like temperatures. We will start with highs ranging from
the mid 20s northeast to the lower 50s southwest on Friday and
then by Monday we will see highs ranging from the lower 40s
northeast to the lower 70s southwest. There will be a tight
gradient in there somewhere across the central, likely dictated
by where the snowpack line is (warmer where ground is bare, colder
where we still have snowpack). The uncertainty is illustrated
nicely with the NBM, which shows plenty of spread for highs
across the central next week and much less spread across the west.
We transition to predominately southwest flow aloft Monday through
Wednesday, with a wave or two bringing slight chances of
precipitation back into the forecast Monday night through
Wednesday. Temperatures would suggest that most of this
precipitation should come in the form of light rain and nothing
major.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
Generally VFR to MVFR conditions will be found through tonight.
MVFR conditions may return tomorrow. Strong winds will continue
the threat for blowing snow and MVFR to perhaps IFR visibility
through this evening across eastern sites. Meanwhile VFR
conditions are expected elsewhere this evening. Tonight, winds
diminish and generally VFR conditions are expected. Some patchy
fog is possible late tonight into Thursday morning, although
confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast at this
time. A weak wave could then bring increased clouds and perhaps a
few snow showers tomorrow. Confidence is not high enough for any
shower mention, although some lower clouds could bring some MVFR
ceilings.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning until midnight CDT tonight for NDZ005-013-023-
025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Anglin
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...Anglin
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
602 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
Slow moving cold front has entered the western portions of Deep
South Texas late this afternoon and will be turtling southward
ovenight moving and stalling off the lower coast Thursday morning.
The front to remain in place, about 50-100 miles east of Padre
Island, much of Thursday with it getting a bit of and eastward
kick tomorrow night as a mid-level trough moves into West Texas.
Rain trends continue to increase through Thursday night with a
continued chance for thunderstorms producing heavy rain at times.
SPC continues a marginal risk of isolated severe thunderstorms
this evening due to weak shortwave troughs rotating through a
broad mid-level southwest flow and the initial large scale forcing
of the slow moving front. Best probability for thunderstorms
tonight will be through midnight when the instability is the
greatest. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail
upwards of 1 inch in diameter and some gusty winds. Heavy rainfall
will also be a threat with the strongest storms as moisture pools
and rapidly deepens (pwats 1.8-2inches) along the boundary.
Although latest model trends have lowered QPF general amounts of
0.25-0.50 inches with isolated 1- 2 inches are possible. SPC has
maintained our CWA region in the marginal risk for day one
excessive rainfall.
A brief lull in the thunderstorms late tonight and Thursday
morning will be short-lived with chances increasing late tomorrow
afternoon and tomorrow night. SPC has expanded the marginal risk
area for the Day 2 convection outlook for all of Deep South Texas.
Models have been and continue to pinpoint Thursday evening/night
for the best chance of rainfall and thunderstorms for our region
as a strong mid-level trough (currently seen on water vapor loops
off Baja CA) moves across West Texas. Although, the storms will be
elevated the trough will provide sharp mid- level lapse rates and
increase the isentropic lift enhancing a few thunderstorms with
one or two overachieving and producing some hail. Rainfall once
again may be marginally robust especially under a thunderstorm.
WPC`s day two excessive rainfall outlook places a slight risk over
northern Brooks and Kenedy counties and marginal risk elsewhere.
QPF amounts again look to average 0.25-0.50 inches with isolated
amounts 1-2+ inches but overall coverage and chances are trending
wider and higher respectively.
Temperature trends are track for a nice Spring cool down with
lows tonight and again Thursday night dipping into the 50s and
60s. High Thursday only recovering into the 60s out west with
70-75 degrees for the Middle and Lower RGV.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
Modest beneficial rainfall will likely continue across deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Friday during the day. SPC keeps the
CWA in a general thunderstorm outlook area and additional rainfall
could reach a half inch as a stalled weak front lingers in the
vicinity. Though the front will likely lie along a surface trough
just offshore, low level moisture, coupled with upper instability,
will keep rain possible over the entire CWA. From the lower Rio
Grande Valley to the Southeast, a weak return flow off the Gulf of
Mexico will maintain a moist environment along the remnants of the
weakened frontal zone. Morning temperatures on Friday will range
from the mid 50s to the mid 60s. High temperatures will range from
the mid 60s to the mid 70s.
The stalled front will remain just offshore heading into the
weekend, meaning the extreme southeast corner of the CWA could see a
few residual showers on Saturday, but upstream ridging and surface
high pressure will eventually take over as the weekend progresses.
Continued return flow early next week may sustain low level moisture
over the area, yet not yield much additional rain.
Rain chances will decrease from west to east on Saturday as mid
level ridging builds in and some drier air works into the region. As
clouds and rain chances decrease, temperatures will start to warm up
through the weekend into early next week. Low temps on Saturday will
generally be in the 50s and 60s with lingering clouds. Saturday high
temps will be mild, as temperatures will be slow to recover, in the
lower to mid 70s. High temperatures for Sunday will be in the mid
70s to near 80, while lows will again be in the 50s and 60s. Look
for warmer and drier Monday through Wednesday weather with high
temps in the 80s with a mix of sun and clouds.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
Tricky situation for the TAFs. A weak cold front will wax and wane
within the region through the next 24 hours. Shifting winds and
precipitation will accompany the frontal boundary, and timing of
the rainfall and wind shifts is based heavily on the HRRR model.
Confidence in this TAF package is very low due to the oozing cold
front.
&&
.MARINE...
Now through Thursday night...A high swell/sea continues to be
indicated by buoy 42020 and buoy 42002, 7.2 and 8.9 feet
respectively, while the pressure gradient remains weak off the
lower Texas coast. As a result, we will be extending the Small
Craft Advisory for the offshore waters through at least midnight
when the latest models show a more significant subsidence of the
seas. A cold front moves off the lower Texas coast tonight with
light to moderate north winds also helping to mix out the high
swell. The front stalls just east of the coastal waters Thursday
morning with a weak low pressure areas to form along the
stationary front Thursday night. This will provide light to
moderate north to northeast winds and a moderate sea. Increasing
showers and thunderstorms will provide adverse marine conditions
with locally higher winds and seas and lower visibility.
Friday through Monday Night...Moderate to fresh northwest to
north winds and moderate to slightly elevated seas will prevail
Friday through Saturday night, with possible low end small craft
advisory conditions Saturday on the Gulf. Winds will weaken and
shift to northeast Sunday through Monday night, maintaining
moderate seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 65 76 62 74 / 50 50 80 50
HARLINGEN 63 74 61 74 / 60 60 90 60
MCALLEN 62 69 60 69 / 70 60 90 50
RIO GRANDE CITY 59 68 59 69 / 80 50 90 50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 75 65 72 / 40 50 80 60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 76 62 74 / 50 50 90 60
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ170-175.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
710 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will continue into Thursday with well above normal
temperatures expected. A slow moving frontal system will move
into the region Friday then stall across the region with much
cooler and rainy weather expected this weekend. Gradual
improvement is expected on Sunday with gradually warming
temperatures next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure remains centered off the East Coast with
a southerly flow across the forecast area. A very warm day was
experienced with highs in the upper 80s, well above normal.
Afternoon cumulus should dissipate with sunset and the loss of
heating, although some higher clouds will continue to stream
overhead tonight.
Southerly flow will continue overnight with weak moisture
advection beneath a strong subsidence inversion, which should
support the formation of early morning stratus development. Fog
should not be too much of an issue given cloud cover and high
dewpoint depressions through the first half of the night before
stratus develops, and a 20 knot low level jet will also limit
fog formation as boundary layer winds expected to stay up a bit.
Low temperatures tonight will be limited by wind and clouds as
well as dewpoints in the 60s and expect overnight lows in the
mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday Night: An upper ridge remains centered to
our south on Thursday with surface high pressure anchored over
Bermuda. The cold front will be located to our west at daybreak
slowly working its way east. The day starts dry for everyone
thanks to a capping inversion but hi-res guidance is supporting
shower and thunderstorm development over the Upstate where more
favorable conditions reside including higher PWATs. In response
to increased confidence in convective development, the SPC Day 2
Outlook has been expanded to include much of the GSP CWA along
our northwestern border. With that in mind, it will be
locations north and west of I-20 that see the best chance for
rain. With higher heights remaining over the forecast area,
expect another day of well above normal temperatures albeit a
few degrees cooler than today due to more cloudiness around.
Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 80s. The chance of
rain remains in the forecast Thursday night as the surface cold
front approaches. The clouds and rain limit cooling at night
with forecast lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Friday and Friday Night: A tricky forecast on Friday as
temperatures will be dependent on how quickly the cold front
moves through the forecast area. High pressure builds in to our
north likely setting up wedge conditions in the wake of the
boundary. Current thinking is highs will be in the mid to upper
60s over the northern CWA where the front will clear first with
mid to upper 70s in the Southern Midlands and CSRA. Rain chances
increase from northwest to southeast as the front moves through and
a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as well. Winds could
also be gusty at times behind the front due to an increasing
pressure gradient. Several rounds of rain are possible,
especially Friday night as the boundary stalls over the region.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday continues to look like a cool, rainy day with wedge
conditions in place over the forecast area. Temperatures are
expected to struggle due the wedge with highs only in the upper
40s to mid 50s. Periods of moderate to perhaps heavy rainfall
are possible as pieces of energy move through the region. There
is higher uncertainty regarding how quickly the wedge breaks
down and conditions improve on Sunday. Leaning closer to the
Euro for Sunday which shows a more gradual improvement as
opposed to the quick clearing in the GFS solution. Temperatures
on Sunday will be warmer than Saturday but still well below
normal. Breezy conditions are likely through the weekend.
Better conditions are expected next week with a gradual warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions in the near term with high confidence of CIG
restrictions late tonight into early Thursday morning.
Surface high pressure offshore with a cold front to our NW. Despite
southerly flow, good mixing today with the strong heating, resulted
in late afternoon dewpoints mixing down into the upper 50s to near
60, several degrees lower than yesterday. The slightly drier low
level air and larger dewpoint depressions this evening, along with
BUFKIT time height indicating a southerly 20 kt boundary layer flow
through the overnight, is expected to preclude low VSBYs in fog, and
make CIGs more of an issue. Local radiation fog scheme indicates a
mixed boundary layer and VSBYs above 3 miles.
SREF/HREF/GFS LAMP indicating moderate to high probabilities of IFR
CIGs across the TAF sites late tonight, with deterministic HRRR
projecting IFR CIGs, with LIFR possible at OGB. With the
dewpoints/crossover temps being a little lower than latest soil
temps, think stratus build down may not be an issue, but cant rule
out MVFR VSBYs in fog.
After stratus/fog gradually dissipates by late morning or midday,
VFR expected Thursday afternoon. A surface trough or old outflow
boundary, and some slight increase in moisture, along with
strong diurnal heating, and some erosion of a mid level cap,
will provide a chance of showers, and isolated thunderstorms,
favoring northern areas, in the late afternoon. For now,
included VCSH after 20z at all sites except OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR CIG restrictions expected again Thu
nt/early Fri. A front will back door down through the area on
Friday, with MVFR CIGs expected behind it, along with a wind shift
to NE. CIGs may lower to IFR Friday night. Expect widespread
prolonged CIG restrictions, also with widespread rain and associated
VSBY restrictions, and breezy conditions, Saturday and Sunday. VFR
expected Sunday night/Monday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
538 PM MDT Wed Apr 5 2023
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Wed Apr 5 2023
Numerous showers have developed as expected across most of the
higher terrain and some adjacent valleys this afternoon, as
revealed by current satellite and radar imagery. This is in
response to a shortwave embedded in a long wave trough moving
through the Rockies. Temperatures at 500mb were analyzed to be
below -30C across most of eastern Utah and western Colorado
according to the latest RAP analysis. Combined with surface
heating from a strong early April sun angle, the resulting mid-
level lapse rates are currently in excess of 8 to 9 C/km. This is
thus supporting a fairly unstable environment with surface based
CAPE values of 100-250+ J/kg. While most surface temperatures are
at or below freezing in the mountains and high valleys (especially
in northwest Colorado), temperatures in the lower valleys have
largely climbed above freezing. Still, despite that fact,
precipitation type everywhere is mostly snow or graupel given how
cold the air is aloft. Not everyone will see a shower this
afternoon and evening, but the risk is still there... especially
in the mountains where the odds will be boosted by favorable
orographics. In terms of new snowfall, any additional amounts will
mainly be light and unlikely to cause too many problems.
As the shortwave lifts out and instability wanes once the sun
goes down later this evening, snow showers will quickly diminish.
A few snow showers may linger along the Continental Divide
mountains overnight, but even these stragglers will come to an end
prior to sunrise Thursday morning. Clearing skies and light winds
in the wake of today`s disturbance will make for near ideal
radiational cooling conditions tonight. As a result, expect
another unseasonably cold start to the morning on Thursday with
lows 10 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year.
The synoptic pattern becomes more zonal on Thursday ahead of a
ridge building into the Great Basin. Prevailing winds will become
more westerly and allow for warmer air to start flowing back into
the region. High temperatures will still be well below normal, but
at least several degrees warmer than the past few days. Helping
to take the chill out of the air will be plenty of sunrise and
light, terrain driven winds.
Quiet weather continues Thursday night with high pressure in
control. Low temperatures will remain on the chilly side with
readings bottoming out roughly 5 to 15 degrees below normal.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Wed Apr 5 2023
A reasonable amount of optimism in the return of spring-like
weather conditions on the Western Slope emerges Friday morning.
Deterministic models paint a rather impressive ridge of high
pressure anchored over the Rockies well into the northern reaches
of the Northwest Territories of Canada. High temperatures on
Friday are expected to be some 20 degrees warmer than today thanks
to the return of southerly flow and generous subsidence under the
ridge. Sunny skies & light wind will kick off a rather mild
weekend that should see climatological normal temperatures return
for both Saturday and Sunday. A couple of weak perturbations move
through the ridge Saturday and Sunday, which could produce a few
clouds, but little meaningful moisture will keep precipitation
formation out of the picture. A more substantial southwesterly jet
stream comes ashore over the Pacific Northwest Sunday night and
drives substantial height rises over the Intermountain West on
Monday and Tuesday under a generous volume of southerly flow.
Numerical guidance has responded with high temperatures well into
the 70`s for desert valleys and 60`s for the mountains to kick off
the workweek. Some uncertainty is warranted with these
climatology-influenced temperatures, considering the generous
snowpack across mountain locales. Ridging begins to break down on
Tuesday as another trough digs into the Great Basin and approaches
our doorstep Wednesday evening. Rather than obsessing over the
day 7 details, it seems wise to enjoy what`s likely to be a sunny
and mild April weekend here in eastern Utah and western Colorado
before the shoulder season gets away from us and summer`s heat
arrives.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Wed Apr 5 2023
Light snow showers are ongoing across the area this afternoon, but
have already begun to taper off as daytime heating wanes. By
midnight, all shower activity will come to an end and skies will
clear. Until then, expect occasional drops to MVFR/IFR conditions
under any shower as CIGS and VIS lower. High pressure and drier
conditions begin to build in tomorrow, with VFR conditions
prevailing from midnight onward. Some gusty winds will be
possible tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDM
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
937 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front to the south will lift slowly northward through
the area tonight. A cold front will then approach from the west
Thursday afternoon and move through Thursday evening. High
pressure will then build from the west through Friday night and
settle over the area for the weekend. The high will slide south
and east early next week, and still remain in control through
mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The warm front is slowly lifting north and currently pushing
through central NJ. Ahead of the front, fog has spread across
the entire area. Another SPS has been issued to include the
rest of northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT.
Visibilities are a mile or less in many locations, with locally
dense fog lowering visibilities to a quarter of a mile or less.
While sfc flow remains easterly, isentropic lift in the layer
just above that was producing numerous light showers. There may
be a break in this activity late this evening, then should
reinvigorate as the warm front aloft moves through.
Sfc warm front gradually lifts northward as a LLJ strengthens
and as the E flow over the area weakens. Dry air punching in
aloft after warm fropa in combo with turbulent mixing from the
LLJ could actually result improvement in spots overnight, but
with higher dewpoint air moving in at the sfc after warm fropa
decided to stick with the fog forecast into Thu morning.
Temps may not change much from current values from the mid 40s
to lower 50s, or could rise slowly after warm fropa.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warmest day of the year, with possible record or near record
high temps, likely for Thu as the warm front lifts north and
low levels dry out. Forecast temps are at least several degrees
above the warmer of the NAM/GFS MOS numbers, blended with the
NBM 90th percentile. This supports fcst highs in the lower 80s
NW of NYC, possibly reaching 85 at Newark, and rising well into
the 70s away from the south shore/east end of Long Island and
the SE CT coast, where 60s are expected as low clouds and fog
likely to linger longer, possibly into early afternoon across
far ern sections.
A marginal svr risk with the approaching cold front was
extended NE into most of the CWA, and this risk appears
conditional. Low levels are more likely than not to end up end
up drier than model fcst due to deeper anticipated mixing,
limiting overall instability, and a possible downslope WSW to W
flow in the afternoon especially from NYC north/west is also not
ideal, The NAM3km and HRRR remain in disagreement on the
evolution of convection which is not typically a good sign, with
the 12Z and 18Z cycles of the NAM3km focusing on areas to the
south where lift ahead of the front looks greater. HRRR 12Z and
18Z cycles on the other hand are more bullish for afternoon
tstms and represent more of a reasonable worst case scenario,
with unidirectional SW shear of 45 kt in tandem with SBCAPE up
to 500 J/kg supportive of multi-cell clusters capable of
producing gusty winds. Other svr modes are not a threat due to
limited 0-1 km shear and -10C to -30C CAPE.
The cold front will move across late Thu afternoon into Thu
evening, with convection weakening and shifting offshore during
the evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast period will be dry as surface high pressure builds
in from the Great Lakes Friday and settles over the region for
the weekend, and moves south and east early next week. An upper
trough will be passing through the area Saturday into early
Sunday with a gusty northwest flow Friday into early Friday
night. Another weak upper trough moves through the northeast
Tuesday with little moisture.
Temperatures Friday into Sunday night will be near seasonal
normals, and then Monday through Wednesday temperatures will
be above normal, especially Wednesday with temperatures around
15 degrees above normal. Generally stuck close to national
blended guidance through Sunday night, then leaned toward the
75th percentile with a blend of the deterministic NBM with the
warming airmass remaining across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front will move across the area overnight and may become
nearly stationary across parts of the area before lifting to
the north in the morning. A cold front will then work across
the area Thursday afternoon into early evening.
Widespread IFR/LIFR overnight with improvement not until after
12Z. VFR develops by mid to late morning for the NYC and Lower
Hudson Valley terminals, but likely not until afternoon for the
eastern terminals. Chance of MVFR or lower in any showers or
thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front Thursday
afternoon into early evening.
E/NE winds generally 10 kt or less (10-15kt along the CT coast)
this evening will become light and variable towards 04Z as a
warm front moves into the area. Eastern terminals will see
S-SW winds develop overnight at generally less than 10 kt, but
for western terminals this may not happen until after 12Z with
the onset of daytime heating. LLWS for all but KSWF from about
03Z to 09Z at 2kft SW at 40-50kt. NW winds 10-12kt G20kt
develop behind the cold front late afternoon into early evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of improvement Thu morning may vary by as much as 1-2
hours. SW G20 kt are possible in the afternoon, especially at
KEWR and KTEB.
...OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Night: VFR. NW G20kt.
Friday: VFR. NW G20kt.
Saturday through Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to the hazards, or winds and seas with the update.
Marine dense fog advy remains for all waters into Thu morning
as fog expands northward ahead of a warm front, with widespread
vsby less than 1 nm. There is a chance improvement could take
place sooner after warm fropa overnight as dry air aloft
intrudes, but this will remain to be seen as higher dewpoint air
moving over cold waters could offset the dry air aloft.
E flow has weakened but ocean seas remain elevated and 5-6 ft,
and should remain so into daytime thu via S flow 15-20 kt after
a warm frontal passage.
Winds and seas will then fall below SCA levels as high pressure
builds in Friday and remains in control into the beginning of
next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for Thu April 6:
EWR 80 1947
BDR 70 1991
NYC *79 1947
LGA 80 1947
JFK 73 2010
ISP *71 2010
* Also in previous years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG/MET/JT
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1058 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through overnight bringing showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Dry weather returns for Friday into the
weekend. Warmer by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1050 PM Wednesday...
Updated the forecast to cool temperature trends as the initial
front has pushed to the mountains. Also nudged chances for
precipitation down during the next several hours across the
western part of the CWA as the next frontal push moves later
tonight. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible through
the overnight hours.
As of 810 PM Wednesday...
Cancelled Severe Watch 128 as the convective line from this
evening has moved east. The line of thunderstorms now stretches
along a line from Friendly in northern West Virginia to Gallup
in eastern Kentucky. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
develops and moves in from the west during the next several
hours, however the potential for severe conditions will be
lower. Storms that develop overnight may potentially become
severe as a low level jet moves overhead. This jet will support
moderate rainfall at times, especially west of the I-77
corridor.
As of 230 PM Wednesday...
Key Points:
* Unseasonably warm temperatures flirt with setting records this
afternoon.
* Line of strong to severe storms arrive into the Ohio River
Valley this evening. Damaging winds continue to be the primary
concern, but can`t rule out large hail and the chance for
tornadoes either.
* Cold front progresses through the area late tonight into
Thursday with shower and storm chances diminishing from west
to east.
Strong warm air advection within a southwesterly flow regime has
yielded an unseasonably warm afternoon across the Central
Appalachians. Despite the cirrus shield loitering overhead,
hourly temperatures have risen into the low to mid 80s for much
of the lower elevations with the assistance of breezier low
level winds. As it currently stands, Clarksburg has already
exceeded their daily high temperature record for today, with a
few more sites aiming in the same direction.
Radar trends are beginning to ramp up this afternoon in two
different segments. Some agitated cumulus fields are beginning
to sprout along the mountains this afternoon, which may further
develop into diurnally driven convection. The more impressive
area of convection resides in the Ohio Valley this afternoon
with a line of showers and thunderstorms crossing through the
ILN CWA. This initial line is traveling in a southwest to
northeast fashion, which may graze our extreme northwest zones
of southeast Ohio in the next few hours. SPC has hoisted a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for a small fraction of our
forecast area as we monitor this line through the course of the
afternoon and early evening.
In a hi-res guidance sense, it appears the latest HRRR has the
best handle on current events. Looking down line through the
next few hours, it appears this initial line will either clip or
just miss our Perry County, maintaining an unstable atmosphere
for the next line of convection to flourish within. The Slight
Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will remain in play this
evening as a squall line presses forth into the Ohio River
Valley near sunset. At the time of writing, this line was
crossing the Indiana/Ohio state line with strong winds a few
instances of radar indicated tornadoes. With storms coming in
after dark here in our area, it will lose the help of daytime
heating for convective maintenance, but the threat for damaging
wind, large hail, and tornadoes lingers into our area heading
into late tonight. Locally higher amounts of rainfall in strong
and healthy storms could also result in high water concerns.
The cold front is progged to slowly trek through the forecast
area beginning in the early morning hours and into much of the
day Thursday. Shower and storm chances gradually recede Thursday
afternoon from the west to east as high pressure nudges the
front further east. A few storms along the mountains could pose
a risk for strong winds. Colder air filters in from the
northwest Thursday afternoon, with afternoon highs tumbling down
into the 50s for the lower Ohio Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Wednesday...
Key Points:
* Showers will linger into Thursday night, especially in northwest
Virginia and the eastern mountains of West Virginia
* There will still be a slight chance for showers over the eastern
mountains on Friday
Post-frontal showers will linger into Thursday night as a stream of
vorticity riding along the 500-mb flow pushes into the area from the
southwest. The best support for showers Thursday night will be over
eastern portions of West Virginia and northwest Virginia. There
won`t be much of a change in the 500-mb pattern on Friday, and
conditions are expected to remain cloudy for much of the day with a
slight chance of showers across the eastern mountains and
northwestern portions of Virginia. Surface high pressure will build
over the eastern Great Lakes late Friday, which will promote some
partial clearing for portions of southeast Ohio, but much of West
Virginia will likely remain cloudy into Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Wednesday...
Key Points:
* Sunshine will return on Sunday as high pressure builds into the
area
* Another warming trend is expected by the middle of next week
Clouds are expected to remain over much of the area on Saturday as
an area of low pressure tracks eastward across the Deep South. Much
of the region should remain dry, but it`s possible that portions of
northwest Virginia and the eastern mountains of West Virginia
could see a few showers on the far northern edge of that system.
Ridging will finally return over the middle Ohio Valley for
Sunday, which should lead to the return of sunshine and dry
weather areawide.
High pressure will reside over the mid-Atlantic region for the
beginning of the work week, and dry weather with varying amounts of
sunshine is currently expected through the remainder of the forecast
period. However, not all models are in complete agreement with this,
and some show a weak disturbance dropping into the area from
the northwest early on Tuesday, which could potentially lead to
a few showers in some places. However, we are currently leaning
towards the ensemble mean at this time, which favors largely dry
weather through the period. Temperatures will be close to
normal to start the new week, and unseasonable warmth will
return for the middle of the week as ridging strengthens.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...
Showers and thunderstorms move across from the west overnight as
a front moves to the mountains. MVFR conditions or lower are
expected with passing storms along with varying strong gusts.
IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected behind the frontal passage with
light rain showers lingering, which hang on through much of
Thursday before improving. Gusty south to west winds tonight
shift to the west and northwest by morning with the frontal
passage with speeds 10 kt or under.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers/storms and flight
restrictions may vary. VIS may be worse than forecast within
storms.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 04/06/23
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H M
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible with rain and storms into Thursday night along the
mountains.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Forecast temperatures vs. record temperatures for climate sites today:
-----------------------------------
Site Forecast Record
-----------------------------------
* Charleston 87 89 (1947)
* Huntington 85 88 (1929)
* Parkersburg 85 85 (1947)
* Clarksburg 86 85 (1986)
* Elkins 83 84 (1910)
* Beckley 80 84 (1909)
-----------------------------------
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...KH/MEK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JLB
CLIMATE...KH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
919 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
Radar imagery continues to show widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the region with some of them producing up to
quarter size hail. Thinking this hail threat will continue into
the overnight hours along with an increased threat for isolated
flooding concerns. Taking a look at some forecast PWAT values up
around 1.5" and some places around 1.75", would not be surprised
if we saw some areas seeing 1-2" rainfall rates or up to 3"
overnight. We currently have a Flood Watch across portions of deep
east Texas and then Sabine Parish in Louisiana. 00z HRRR is
showing training showers and thunderstorms across this region and
then into northwest Louisiana and portions of southwest Arkansas.
There was some consideration to extending the area of the Flood
Watch to cover more areas in east Texas, most of our Louisiana
Parishes and then into southwest Arkansas. That being said, models
are limited at this time and there could be some argument both
ways. Thinking it will need to be extended at some point, but the
location is what we will need more data for. Aside from this, look
for a long night of showers and thunderstorms across most of the
area. /33/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
A lingering frontal boundary will maintain chances of
precipitation across the Four State Region through the rest of the
workweek. This theme of wet weather continues through tonight
with showers and thunderstorms likely along and south of the I-30
corridor. Combined effects from frontal passage and rain-cooled
air will modify temperature minimums into the mid-40s and 50s
overnight, while winds continue to shift to gain a northerly
component.
By tomorrow, precipitation is expected to continue, with a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary focusing moisture and instigating
convection across the area. Forecast precipitation values continue
to indicate totals at or above 5 inches of rainfall through the
next several days across Deep East Texas, in addition to
antecedent rainfall, prompting a Flood Watch through Thursday
evening. Spatial and temporal extensions of the Flood Watch are
possible beyond this time frame. Otherwise, temperature maximums
are expected to be moderated into the 60s. With rain also expected
into tomorrow night, temperature minimums are expected in the
upper 40s. /16/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
Unsettled weather pattern to continue into Friday as a surface
trough of low-pressure across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a
broad mid-level trough across east Texas will help to maintain an
unstable environment areawide. Low-level moisture streaming north
above a fairly cool surface airmass will support widespread ongoing
rainfall mainly along and south of I-20. Heavy rainfall may be
possible with a Slight risk for excessive rainfall per WPC guidance
highlighted across mainly deep east Texas and north Louisiana on
Friday. 24 hour rain totals on Friday are forecast to average up to
2 inches, contributing to an already forecast 3 to 6 inch rainfall
total forecast from tonight through Friday night. Conditions may
warrant a Flood Watch in the near future should rainfall totals
threaten to exceed flash flood guidance for these areas.
Conditions forecast to improve on Saturday as a shortwave trough
drives the precipitation east and weak upper-level ridging builds in
its wake. Skies to become mostly clear by late in the weekend as
upper-level ridging becomes firmly established across the Rockies
providing northwest flow across the ArkLaTex. Expect a gradual
warming trend through the long-term period with highs in the 50s on
Friday to climb into the lower 80s by Tuesday. Otherwise, overnight
low temperatures to climb from the 40s to lower 50s on Friday
morning to near 60 by Tuesday morning.
/05/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
For the 06/00z TAFs...Radar imagery is showing widespread showers
and thunderstorms along and southeast of a line from near Tyler,
TX to Atlanta, TX to Hope, AR this evening. As would be expected,
satellite imagery is showing significant cloud cover across the
entire region. Expecting this shower and thunderstorm activity to
continue across much of the region through the overnight hours and
into the day Thursday. For the most part, VFR to MVFR conditions
are being seen for all terminals. This will quickly change as we
head into the overnight hours, with more widespread IFR settling
in by 06/07z as CIGs and visibility drops. Winds could become
gusty at times towards the end of the TAF period. /33/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 53 60 49 56 / 90 80 70 70
MLU 55 63 50 57 / 90 80 80 80
DEQ 47 62 47 61 / 20 20 20 20
TXK 51 60 48 58 / 50 50 40 40
ELD 48 57 46 56 / 90 70 60 60
TYR 51 60 48 57 / 50 60 60 60
GGG 52 60 48 56 / 70 70 60 70
LFK 54 64 51 58 / 80 90 90 90
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ017.
OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ152-153-165>167.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...33