Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/03/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
739 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and drier air will remain over the region tonight
with an upper level disturbance moving into the region Monday
morning with chances of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Temperatures will warm to well above normal for the middle of
the week with another front moving into the area late this week
with unsettled conditions for Thursday into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure will move offshore tonight with weak
southerly flow leading to increasing moisture. However, it will
take considerable time to moisten the atmosphere making
measurable rainfall unlikely. Models indicate PWAT values by
daybreak Monday will likely be near or under 0.75 inches. An
upper level shortwave will work to increase cloud cover early
Monday morning but no rain is expected. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak mid level shortwave embedded within broad zonal flow will
steadily cut across the southern CONUS late Sunday into Monday
morning. The dynamic lift from this impulse will help drive some
showers and possibly thunderstorms across our area throughout
much of Monday. However, instability remains fairly limited
aloft, and at the surface, thanks to lingering dry air from
Saturday-Sunday`s cold front; dry air towards the surface across
GA and SC will generally help scattered out and weaken any
convection that does roll eastward into the CWA. That being
said, PoP`s increase to around 40-50% throughout the day before
tapering off in the evening; total QPF amounts between 0.1-0.3"
expected. HREF members are all in fairly good agreement over
this solution, with some additional deep convection progged in
the hi-res to our southwest, robbing some further moisture from
reaching us. High temps Monday should reach into the low 70`s
despite cloud cover and some precip, but with the cloud cover,
overnight lows into Tuesday should stay fairly warm, in the
upper 50`s.
Ridging quickly builds in for Tuesday as the shortwave quickly
exits east. Height rises thanks to strengthening low level
warm advection will steadily build throughout Tuesday as a deep
trough digs in the Central CONUS. Temps will climb into the low-
mid 80`s as southwest surface develop. Precip chances remain low
thanks to the rising heights and general subsidence throughout
mid and upper levels. Warm advection along with some returning
low level moisture may pop a few showers particular across
eastern GA, but again probabilities remain below 15%. Low temps
will remain well above average heading to Wednesday, falling
into the mid 60`s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep ridging is expected dominate the early parts of the long
term forecast, for Wednesday and Thursday. Strong warm advection
below 500mb will continue to force rising heights across the
entire region and consequently temps will surge to near record
highs. GEFS and NBM solutions are quite consistent with this
pattern, showing a tight window of high temps right around 90F.
NAEFS does a nice show depicting this anomalously warm pattern
with near or at record high heights and temps over our area. A
distinct pattern shift is becoming more likely by late week as a
front is progged to stall somewhere across the Southeast as a
strong high pressure center digs to our north. So confidence is
rapidly increasing in much cooler weather along with high precip
chances starting Friday through Sunday as that front stalls
over the area.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected overnight with mid and high clouds
increase toward daybreak. Low level moisture will increase after
09z. The NBM and HRRR suggest some patchy fog may develop near
the Savannah river but confidence not high at this time with a
relatively dry air mass in place.
A warm front will be approaching from GA late Monday. Moisture
will be increasing and expect ceilings to lower through the day.
Showers will be possible in the afternoon. But higher
probabilities for restrictions appears west of the area. Winds
will be light and variable becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots
Monday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in ceiling
restrictions continuing into Monday night as a weak disturbance
crosses the region. Restrictions possible Thursday afternoon
through Friday as a frontal boundary stalls across the region
with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
639 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023
.Discussion...
Issued at 307 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2023
Key Messages:
- Isolated to Scattered Thunder/Showers Tonight
- Scattered Thunderstorms Monday Afternoon
- Windy Tuesday; Favorable Severe Thunderstorm Environment
Discussion:
The mid and upper-level flow is generally zonal across most of the
CONUS but there are couple of H5 short-wave troughs that are moving
through the flow. One of these short-waves is moving through the
Southern Plains of Texas. While the forcing with this short-wave
remains well south of the area, this will aid in pumping some
moisture northward into forecast area later this evening. The short-
wave for us to keep a closer eye on is currently moving across the
northern Plains, and is dragging a weak surface cyclone along the
U.S./Canada border. For the early part of the evening, the last of
the surface high pressure pushing off to the east will keep the area
dry. The pressure gradient should weaken as that high is pushed
eastward, thus the gusty winds from this afternoon will not last
into the evening. As the northern short-wave moves eastward, a
thermal boundary drops southward toward the area. The 850mb-700mb
thermal gradient will move ahead of the surface boundary and arrive
in northern Missouri by late evening. Convergence ahead of this
boundary will provide enough lift for isolated to scattered shower
activity. With the clear skies this afternoon and stronger
insolation, would expect MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg to support a few
rumbles of thunder. This evening, the wind shear will not be overly
strong, thus would not anticipate late evening activity to greatly
organize. The better shear holds off until Monday morning/afternoon.
But for tonight, the CAMs indicate initialization shortly after 00z.
Given the dry boundary layer, and that it may take time for the
moisture from the south to arrive, thinking that 00z may be a tad
early for shower activity. Certainly could see increasing cumulus
clouds before sunset, as this trend is currently visible in
northeast Oklahoma and moving northeastward. QPF will be light with
any shower activity tonight with the overall dry conditions that
this morning started off with.
Monday late morning and into the afternoon, strong PV anomaly comes
ashore, developing a trough that will be digging toward the Rockies.
A 100+ kt jet streak develops with trough, and promotes strong CVA
across the Intermountain West into the Front Range. The preceding
WAA into the Front Range with increasing dCVA will kick off surface
cyclogenesis in the Front Range, and out ahead of it strong response
in southerly low-level flow from the Central Plains to the Middle
Mississippi River Valley. This stalls the boundary somewhere across
the forecast area. In the past 24 hours, model guidance has allowed
for faster intensification of the surface cyclone, which stalls the
boundary further north (just north of Hwy 36). However, there are
few ensemble members that still keep the boundary further south.
This will make for a difficult temperature forecast across the area,
as temperatures north of the boundary will be in the mid to upper
50s and south of the boundary upper 60s to lower 70s. Where exactly
the boundary stalls out at could make difference of 15 to 20 degrees
in Monday`s high temperature. For areas south of the boundary, the
southerly flow will result in strong WAA, and expecting isentropic
ascent across most of the forecast area to provide showers. Moisture
transport should increase through the day, but likely have several
breaks that should allow for areas of diabatic heating. Therefore,
Monday morning into late afternoon could also see scattered
thunderstorms to develop. There is potential for some amount of
organization, especially closer to the thermal boundary where
convergence will be better and may have slightly enhanced wind
shear. Since 17z, the HRRR has been developing more robust
thunderstorms right along the boundary, as this is also closer to
the H5 jetstreak that will help to provide shear. The 12z NSSL WRF
and Hires-FV3 developed weaker activity on the south (warm) side of
the boundary, but does not appear to be as intense as the activity
closer to the boundary. The simulated storms in on the warm side
also have considerably weaker deep layer shear. For most of Monday
late morning and early afternoon, the boundary layer should be
relatively stable, therefore most activity will remain elevated.
Stronger updrafts may be able to produce up to quarter size hail.
This threat is highlighted in the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk Convective
Outlook. By Monday night, as the trough out west comes to the end of
digging, subtle H5 height rises may occur very late in the evening.
This could provide subsidence that helps to clear some of the cloud
cover that develops with isentropic ascent. This largely depends on
the degree of moisture transport that occurs south of the thermal
boundary.
Attention turns to Tuesday as the deep H5 trough begins to lift out
of the desert southwest with the 100+ kt jet rounding east of the
trough axis. This develops a negative tilt throughout Tuesday
morning, while dCVA and WAA remained phase ahead of the axis and
allow the surface cyclone to continue to deepen. This strengthens
southerly flow across the area. First off, this will result in
another windy day. The gradient winds alone will begin to push
advisory criteria, and if clouds clear late Monday Night, mixing
during the early morning may help bring wind gusts to near 40 kts.
This may also lead to elevated fire weather threat. Secondly, this
robust synoptic setup is expected to result in a favorable severe
thunderstorm environment. Ensemble probabilities for at least 1000
J/kg MUCAPE are above 90 percent. This will be a rather robust warm
sector, as temperatures are progged to reach the lower 80s with
dewpoints eventually climbing the into the lower 60s. Throughout the
day, the thermal boundary that stalled on Monday is pushed northward
into Iowa. As the surface cyclone deepens, surface troughing extends
across the Plains to east of the Mississippi River Valley. Most
deterministic solutions continue to depict rapid pressure falls
especially in the vicinity of the warm front. As the nose of the H5
100+ kt jet streak approaches, deep layer shear drastically
increases, and will likely see bulk shear values in the 0-6km layer
exceed 60 kts. For the most part, there is strong consensus among
model guidance with the track of the surface cyclone. There are
still differences in the strength of the surface cyclone, but only
about 4-6 mb. These differences likely will not make a big
difference in the impacts expected from this system. The main
question is how long does it take for shower and thunderstorm
activity to start. As was the case with this past Friday`s event,
there will likely be a pseudo dryline that comes through prior to
the main cold front, dropping dewpoints but keeping temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Isentropic ascent may continue, and
could foster some shower development Tuesday morning. Currently,
synoptic scale models are not overly excited with producing rain
Tuesday morning for our forecast area. Most of the QPF comes after
18z, essentially waiting for peak heating. Analysis of GFS model
soundings does show a strong EML advecting in from 775mb and upward
with the southwesterly mid-level flow ahead of the main trough, and
provides a stronger a cap across a large portion of the warm sector
that is ahead of the pseudo dryline. The convergence along the
surface cyclone and cold front will likely be needed to lift parcels
past this cap. Given the strong dynamics of this system though,
would not be surprised if a weak vorticity max ejects from the main
PV anomaly, and provides some forcing for elevated storms early
Tuesday afternoon. However, the main show and severe weather threat
will need to wait for surface based convection. Once the cap erodes,
the warm sector throughout much of the lower Missouri River Valley
will have mid-level lapse rates between 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, with nearly
dry adiabatic boundary layers. With respect to wind shear, current
model hodographs are showing strong cyclonic shear in the lowest 0-
1km in areas near the center of the surface cyclone, mainly where
the surface winds are backed to the southeast. There are few points
that also show a veer-back profile in the vicinity of the warm front
and surface cyclone center. Right now, this is favored north of Hwy
36 from NE Kansas into southern Iowa (essentially the northern
enhanced risk in the SPC Day 3 outlook). This would be the favored
area for discrete supercell storm mode, with areas further south
looking at more linear storm along the cold front. A secondary area
south of Interstate 44 associated with a secondary vort max could
also favor this, but this is not currently depicted in our forecast
area. If the environment remains favorable for a discrete storm mode
Tuesday afternoon into early evening, supercells will be capable of
all threats. Areas along the cold front with the linear storm mode
would mainly be damaging winds, but will need to monitor surges and
inflections and how it orients with the 0-3km shear vector, as the
bulk shear values in this layer will exceed 40 kts later in the
evening as the LLJ kicks in. If the warm front does not surge as
quickly, or the H5 short-wave closes off sooner and lifts
differently then currently progged, this will likely change where
favorable low-level cyclonic shear sets up, and could change the
area of the discrete storm threat. The 00z CAMs this evening may
provide us some of the first hints on this potential. The CAMs this
evening will also provide the opportunity to dive into smaller scale
details, storm motion, storm inflow, etc. Confidence is medium-high
in the occurrence of strong to severe storms across the area, medium
confidence in the specific threats and low-medium in timing. Severe
storms could start early afternoon, and it is possible a severe
threat continues into the late evening.
Expect neutral conditions through the middle of the weak with
respect to the zonal mid-level pattern. Deterministic solutions
continue to depict a troughing pattern in the far west, that could
eventually lead to more precipitation activity toward the end of
week. Wednesday afternoon main remain windy on the backside of the
convection, especially as eastern Kansas and most of Missouri remain
on the backside of cyclonic flow.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2023
Watching a cumulus field to the southwest of the metro that may
lead to a few showers and thunderstorms through the evening hours.
The storms may impact IXD, but coverage should be fairly spotty
with better chances farther east so have not included at this
time. Front across the area is expected to stall across the area
overnight into Monday. Expect stratus to develop along and north
of the boundary, with the potential for drizzle and an isolated
storm or two.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...Krull
Aviation...BT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023
* WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY.
A low-amplitude shortwave is currently moving overhead per latest
water vapor imagery and RAP 500 hpa analysis, and has served to
shunt the dryline and any available moisture to the east of the
region, paving the way for a warm, dry, and breezy afternoon.
Westerly winds have picked up across the area, with associated
downslope warming beneath a low-level thermal ridge resulting in
noticeably warmer temperatures this afternoon in the upper 70s and
80s for most.
Tonight looks to be the last "quiet" period in the forecast for at
least a couple of days, as wind gusts diminish and lows drop into
the middle 40s to middle 50s for most. By Monday morning, flow aloft
will transition to southwesterly as a potent mid-level trough digs
southward over the West Coast and into the Great Basin. Ahead of
this feature, a lee surface trough will develop and aid in
increasing westerly surface winds and associated warming coincident
in the amplification of the low-level thermal ridge. Highs Monday
afternoon will soar well above normal into the middle 80s and lower
90s for most, with upper 70s in the higher terrain and lower 100s
through portions of the Rio Grande Valley.
As the jet associated with the approaching trough begins to nose
into the region, guidance indicates the development of a mountain
wave signature over the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, marking
the beginning of a prolonged significant high wind event. Thus, a
High Wind Warning will go into effect at Noon CDT/11 AM MDT with
gusts to 75 mph possible there, with a Wind Advisory across the
adjacent plains as well as in the Davis and Chinati Mountains, where
winds are expected to start gusting to 50-55 mph Monday afternoon.
Windy to very windy conditions will persist thereafter, with the
High Wind Warning remaining in effect through late Tuesday night,
and the Advisory in effect until Tuesday morning. Of note, is that
with the loss of mixing after sunset Monday evening, winds will
diminish for all but the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. However,
the aforementioned trough will translate eastward across the Four
Corners Region, and as it approaches the region late Monday night
into early Tuesday morning, winds will quickly increase once again,
first across western areas. Thus, despite the all-too-brief respite
from the stronger winds, the Advisory will remain in effect through
the night.
Given the continued hot, dry, and windy pattern, elevated fire
weather conditions today will give way to widespread critical and
extreme fire weather conditions on Monday. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect beginning Monday late morning for Southeast New Mexico and
areas south to the Marfa Plateau and Brewster County, as well as
across the northern tier of the Permian Basin. Unfortunately, as
conditions will remain dry overnight and winds elevated Monday
night, little reprieve is expected, with the Red Flag Warning
remaining in effect for the duration. Additional details can be
found in the Fire Weather Discussion below.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023
* HIGH WINDS WITH EXTREME TO HISTORICAL FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY.
An upper trough over the PacNW approaches the region Tuesday,
tightening the gradient with a 700mb 75kt jet max over SE New
Mexico. Sunny skies with ample mixing means high winds are expected
to develop nearly area-wide by late Tuesday morning. A High Wind
Warning is currently in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains and most other counties are currently in a High Wind Watch
through Tuesday evening. Wind speeds are expected to be 40-50 mph
with gusts up to 65 mph in the plains and Permian Basin and gusts
up to 100 mph in the higher terrain. These will be extremely
hazardous winds, making it difficult to control vehicles and
blowing away unsecured objects. Given the intensity of the winds,
blowing dust is expected for most of Tuesday which could
drastically reduce visibility. These extremely strong winds, along
with humidity falling to as low as 3%, have created extreme to
historical fire weather concerns and a long fuse Red Flag Warning
is in effect...see Fire Weather Discussion below for more
information.
Thickness falls and a Pac front moves through later in the afternoon
Tuesday. In response, temperatures Tuesday look to be 10-15 degrees
cooler than Monday, although still above normal in the 70s across
the west, 80s in the Permian Basin, and 90s along the Rio Grande. As
the aforementioned trough lifts northward into the Great Lakes
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, winds will decrease with the
exception of Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains where high winds will
continue into early Wednesday morning. By sunrise, winds shift more
northwesterly with a backdoor cold front bringing another push of
colder air. Surface high pressure sets up and Wednesday will be the
first below-normal day we`ve had in over a week as highs struggle to
break above the 60s. Temperatures are expected to remain below
normal in the 60s and 70s through Easter Sunday.
Models have pulled back a bit on the precipitation chances in the
Thursday-Friday time range as expected, given that the better
moisture will be southeast of us and will struggle to reach our
region post-front. The better precipitation chances have been pushed
back to the late Friday-Saturday time frame when an upper low
approaches from the west-southwest, bringing us better moisture.
This far out models aren`t aligned with the track of this system so
at this time, the likelihood of this precipitation coming to
fruition is low.
-Zuber
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023
VFR will continue through the forecast period. Wind speeds will
continue to diminish through sunset, becoming less than 10 kts
overnight. Winds will increase out of the WSW again late tomorrow
morning at most terminals with highest gusts expected at CNM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023
* CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER MONDAY.
* EXTREME TO HISTORICAL FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY.
Near critical to critical fire weather today, so a Fire Danger
Statement has been issued for this afternoon area-wide. This is
mainly due to an increase in 20ft winds, especially across the
higher terrain, and humidity falling to 6% or less everywhere. RFTIs
are highest in the mountains (values of 5-7) where 20ft winds are
25+ mph. ERCs remain in the 70th-90th percentiles but will continue
to dry over the next several days as humidity remains critically
low. Overnight recovery will be very poor, with many spots across
the west and south not getting above 15%. On Monday, winds switch
out of the southwest in response to lee troughing over the Rockies,
and humidity will fall to the lowest levels of the week...as low as
3%. 20ft winds increase Monday as well to 30+ mph across the west
with higher in the mountains. High clouds may increase from the
southeast which will likely hinder some fire weather concerns down
along the lower Trans Pecos. Areas further north and west, however,
will have RFTI values of 7-8 due to the strong winds and critical
humidity. Fuels will be critically dry for the aforementioned
locations as well, leading to critical to extreme fire weather
conditions Monday. This is a particularly dangerous fire weather
pattern with extremely critical fire weather conditions expected for
an extended period with little to no improvement overnight, as
overnight recovery looks to max out around 15%. Because of this, a
prolonged Red Flag Warning has been issued stretching all the way
from Monday morning through Tuesday late evening.
Tuesday will be even worse with extreme to historical fire weather
conditions expected. Winds will be ramping up dramatically with high
winds expected across much of the CWA, not just the mountains. A
High Wind Watch has been issued for nearly the entire CWA for
Tuesday while the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains are in a High
Wind Warning. The mountains may see 20ft winds of 60-70 mph with the
Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and areas further south seeing 20ft
winds of 35-55 mph. Clouds clear and RFTI values will be 8-9
everywhere, with humidity falling to as low as 4%. Fuels will be
critically dry by Tuesday due to the low humidity the previous days
and ERC values will have reached the 90th-96th percentile for parts
of the Basin. Again, this day will see some of the worst fire
weather conditions this area has experienced in quite some time.
Extreme precaution needs to be taken on Tuesday to prevent
devastating and deadly wildfires as these conditions will be ideal
for fire spread. Any fires that develop will rapidly grow and may
become difficult to impossible to control given the expected winds.
The Red Flag Warning remains in effect through late Tuesday evening.
Winds should decrease by early Wednesday morning as the upper trough
responsible for our high winds moves north. Humidity will still be
critically low Wednesday but with winds significantly lighter, fire
weather concerns are lower. Concerns drop further Thursday and
Friday as better moisture moves in, including the potential for some
showers and thunderstorms late Thursday through Saturday across the
eastern regions. Humidity recovery will be good to very good by
Thursday night with below normal temperatures Wednesday through
Sunday.
-Zuber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 50 91 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 48 86 55 73 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 53 97 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 55 92 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 50 78 48 65 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 47 84 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 39 82 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 51 90 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 52 90 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 47 92 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Monday to 11 PM CDT
/10 PM MDT/ Tuesday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster
County-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-
Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
Midland-Mitchell-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler.
High Wind Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Monday to 3 AM CDT
/2 AM MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
Wind Advisory from noon Monday to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for Chinati
Mountains-Davis Mountains-Eastern Culberson County-Van Horn
and Highway 54 Corridor.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Howard-Loving-
Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Van Horn
and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 11 PM CDT Tuesday for Chisos Basin-
Crane-Lower Brewster County-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-
Terrell-Upton-Ward.
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for
Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
Guadalupe Mountains.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM Monday to 2 AM MDT Wednesday for
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for Central
Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
Southern Lea County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1049 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- Major winter storm will impact the Upper Midwest Tuesday through
Wednesday. A plethora of hazards are expected across the area,
including heavy snowfall, strong winds, and scattered
thunderstorms. The storm track will greatly influence what areas
receive the different weather elements.
- A major warming trend is looking increasingly likely next weekend
with some 60s possible across southern and eastern Minnesota into
Wisconsin.
It`s the first 50 degree day for some today, regardless of recent
snow. Temperatures have exceeded expectations, which could be a sign
of things to come, especially next weekend when the snowpack may have
taken a big hit by then. More on that later. A cold front is passing
through and temperatures have started to drop behind it as winds
shift west northwest and the thermal ridge is pushed east. The
airmass incoming is not particularly cold and temperatures will be
just a bit below normal for Monday.
Attention then turns to the large winter to impact much of the U.S.
Monday night into Wednesday. Model consistency remains pretty good,
but some deterministic members (NAM and CMC) have shifted east a bit.
Despite this, temperatures aloft remain quite warm even with those
models and a wintry mix or rain is still likely to spread across the
whole area. Probabilities for all snow even across western MN have
decreased and the bullseye for significant snow is centered across
the eastern Dakotas and northern MN. With the track of the low being
overhead, even small shifts to the east or west could mean big
changes to the forecast.
Generally, the low will track from Colorado to MN by Tuesday night.
An arc of precipitation will develop over the central and northern
Plains late Monday night and overspread the area Tuesday. Thermal
profiles suggest a wintry mix at the onset in most locations. As the
low tracks into MN, winds will shift southeasterly to the east of the
track and turn any wintry mix to rain. Steep mid level lapse rates
and a prominent, moist inversion around 750 mb could lead to robust
elevated instability by Tuesday evening. Elevated supercells with
large hail will be a threat. Continued with relatively high
thunderstorm chances Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of the
system.
Winds will also be quite strong as the sub-990mb low tracks through.
CAA will be sufficiently strong that low level lapse rates will be
steep, so confidence in 40+ kt wind gusts remains high. Wrap around
snow showers and strong winds should impact the whole region
Wednesday with the potential for light accumulations.
Left the Winter Storm Watch mostly intact, aside from dropping Meeker
Co and reducing some of the blizzard verbiage with more of a mix
expected. A small shift to the east could mean larger snow totals and
greater impacts again. Will await further trends before completely
buying into one solution of the other at this range.
High pressure will then slide east across the area late week and
southwesterly flow should bring a robust warming trend by next
weekend. How warm it gets will depend on the snowpack situation, but
the incoming airmass appears capable of bringing 60s for highs across
southern/eastern MN and WI Saturday-Sunday with 70s just to the
south. There will be a cold front approaching late weekend, so lower
confidence for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023
VFR conditions are expected the rest of tonight. The issues this
period revolve around how much progress the stratus currently in
NoDak will be able to make into the dry air currently over central
MN. The HRRR continues to struggle to bring this clouds into central
MN, even to AXN. Haven`t seen enough changes with the guidance from
the 00z TAFs to change what we were going with, so kept MVFR cigs in
at AXN and out at STC, but really could have gone either way at both
of those locations. As for when the "crud" finally arrives, the
RAP/HRRR keep pushing that out a little and it looks like it will be
pretty close to 12z Tuesday before conditions really start to tank.
KMSP...Debated bringing MVFR cigs in at 10z Tuesday morning, but
with the HRRR trending later with arrival of the lower cigs, kept MSP
VFR until we get a better handle on when MVFR or lower cigs will move
in.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...MVFR-IFR with SHRA. Wind ENE 15-20G30 kts.
Wed...MVFR. Chc IFR with -SHSN. Wind W 20-30G35-40 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Wednesday
night for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-
Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow
Medicine.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
942 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2023
...SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10...
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2023
No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.
Areas of fog are possible later tonight across portions of the
Florida big bend and panhandle, especially near the coast.
Otherwise, the forecast for Monday still looks potentially stormy.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2023
A weakening mid-level shortwave vorticity maxima is forecast to
push through the lower Tennessee river valley and into the
Carolinas throughout the day tomorrow. This morning`s CAM guidance
has this mid- level feature supporting the initiation and
maintenance of a MCS later this evening across the Arklatex
region. This MCS is forecast to progress east into Mississippi and
eventually western Alabama by Monday morning as the
aforementioned mid-level shortwave vorticity maxima starts to
become more elongated and weakens in the westerlies. At this time,
there is much uncertainty in the forecast regarding the path this
MCS takes throughout the day on Monday; however, the greatest
chances for showers and thunderstorms to develop look to be across
SE Alabama and SW Georgia. As the mid- level vorticity maxima
weakens, the MCS could become more self- sufficient and mesoscale
processes may take over. This could be in the form of the MCS
becoming more cold-pool dominant through the afternoon. If this
occurs, the MCS may take a slight southeastward jog, and could end
up along the Florida/Georgia border by the evening hours. The
HRRR which typically does well, has forecast this situation in its
latest model runs; however, most CAM and global guidance keeps a
majority of the convection north across SE Alabama and SW and
South- Central Georgia. This provides some uncertainty with
tomorrow`s forecast, and the overall track of the MCS through the
afternoon and evening. With MLCAPE values surging into the 1000-
1500 J/Kg through the afternoon across the area tomorrow, combined
with roughly 60 knots of deep layer shear through the SFC-6km
layer, the environment is extremely favorable for the MCS to be
maintained through the afternoon and evening hours. At this time,
SPC has outlined a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for all of our SE
Alabama, SW Georgia, and northern rows of Florida counties across
our area. Given the environment above, isolated damaging wind
gusts and large hail are the main threats expected with these
storms tomorrow; however, an isolated tornado or two can`t be
ruled out as surface winds are forecast to be backed out of the
southeast tomorrow. Overall, temperatures will be warm, with highs
climbing into the low to mid 80s across Florida, and upper 70s
across SE Alabama and SW Georgia.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2023
Upper level ridging will begin developing over the region,
expanding from the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. Through
the day, the ridge will be traversing northeast towards the
Atlantic as an upper level low will be approaching the midwest
states. The high pressure will keep rain chances for Tuesday at or
near zero. Temperatures will start in mid-upper 60s Tuesday
morning and will warm to the mid to upper 80s in the afternoon,
with low 80s along the immediate coastline.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2023
The upper level ridging will hold its pattern across the Gulf of
Mexico over the FL Peninsula towards the Atlantic Ocean through
Thursday. A cold front approaching from the northwest will create
a tight gradient, which will increase the winds on Wednesday to be
breezy with gusts around 15-20 mph. On Thursday, the ridge will
begin to flatten, with a cold front bringing in a chance for
showers and thunderstorms for our Alabama and Georgia counties by
Friday into Saturday. It looks like the front will stall along the
FL border, which could keep PoPs elevated along and north of I-10
in the forecast past the Long term period as the troughing
pattern remains over the region through the weekend.
PoPs for the Long Term range from 30%-50% during the afternoon
from Thursday through Saturday with the highest chances north of
I-10. Temperatures during this period will be very warm in the
upper 80s, reaching towards 90 degrees Wednesday through Friday.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s. Temperatures will be
"cooler" on Saturday as the front begins to move in with Highs in
the low to mid-upper 70s for regions north of I-10, and upper
70s/low 80s south of I-10.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 746 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2023
Increasing moisture overnight is expected to lead to areas of fog
and low ceilings around TLH and ECP late tonight with LIFR
conditions. Fog and low ceilings are expected to lift during the mid-
morning hours. By late morning into the afternoon, a round of strong
to potentially severe thunderstorms is expected to affect DHN and
ABY.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2023
A cold front has moved into the northeast Gulf this morning and
will further dissipate this afternoon. A surface high pressure
center will then move from near the Outer Banks this evening to
north of Bermuda on Monday, where it will remain anchored through
Thursday. This will support gentle to moderate southeast breezes
over the waters starting this evening. Wave heights are also
expected to increase to 3-4 feet by Wednesday before the surface
High pressure will bridge in from the north on Thursday night;
bringing a turn to northeast and east breezes.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2023
Monday will feature higher dispersions and winds, with the
highest dispersion levels focused along the I-75 corridor.
Minimum relative humidity levels will also increase, due to
southerly flow returning to our area ahead of the next potential
rainmaker for the second half of Monday. Lightning activity levels
will be highest in northern counties in SE Alabama and SW
Georgia. While rain chances decrease, similar conditions will
persist for Tuesday, with decently high dispersions and minimum
relative humidity sitting at roughly 45- 60% across much of the
region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2023
The Flood Warning for the Flint River - Newton (SR 37) was
cancelled this morning as the latest forecast shows a crest just
below minor flood stage. Given the cresting from its Albany
counterpart, there is confidence in this forecast trend
continuing. As for Flint River - Bainbridge (US 27), flooding
remains a possibility by midday Tuesday, but the forecast level is
right at the threshold 25 ft and just beyond the 48-hr warning
window for this cycle.
On the Apalachicola, releases at Woodruff Dam have been coming
down since Saturday morning, and they may soon fall below 47 kcfs.
Once that happens, it could take an additional couple of days to
see the river level at Blountstown fall below minor flood.
A cluster of thunderstorms is likely to move across or north of
our Alabama and Georgia counties on Monday. The 12z HREF shows the
neighborhood probabilities of exceeding flash flood guidance
around 10-30 percent, with the higher probabilities from Eufaula
Alabama to Leesburg Georgia. This same area has about a 10 percent
chance of exceeding 3 inches of rain. Depending on how the
cluster of thunderstorms tracks and evolves, a flash flood threat
could develop anywhere near and north of the Florida state line,
and west of the I- 75 corridor on Monday. The QPF total is about
1-3 inches for Monday into Tuesday with the highest amounts
located in the previously mentioned regions.
More rain is in store later in the week, approaching the weekend
but, there are no flooding concerns with this system at the
moment.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 83 61 84 67 / 0 0 30 0
Panama City 77 65 78 69 / 0 10 30 0
Dothan 74 58 79 67 / 0 10 60 0
Albany 74 58 80 64 / 0 0 60 10
Valdosta 78 59 85 64 / 0 0 20 0
Cross City 85 59 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 75 66 76 69 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...EAO
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery