Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/30/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1006 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will bring gusty showers and snow squalls
tonight. Greatest risk of snow squalls is at higher elevations,
although quickly falling temperatures overnight will lead to
some icy conditions and unseasonably cold weather on Thursday.
Much milder weather will arrive by Saturday with highs in the
50s and 60s, and periods of rain and breezy conditions will
occur Friday afternoon through Saturday. After another shot of
cold weather for Sunday, more seasonable conditions return to
start the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1003 PM EDT Wednesday...Pre-frontal trough pushng through
VT with the cold front entering the Champlain Valley with some
snow squalls in the Adirondacks and Champlain Valley VT. Temps
are still mild for any widespread issues in the valley but still
looking at best squalls and any accumulation in the Green
Mountains and NE VT. Previous forecast looking good thus no real
changes.
Previous evening discussion...It looks like the HRRR model
reflectivity is within 30 minutes of arrival and current
forecast has this pegged thus no changes to forecast. Already
rain/snow mixed in higher terrain in western Adirondacks due to
good wet bulbing and this will set the stage for earlier
transition and snow squalls likely as they enter the
Adirondacks. In the big valleys with temperatures still in the
40s/50 it will be rain, rain/snow mixed before changing to snow
and it will take an hour/two to get below freezing. Spine of
Green Mountains east look to have the pre-frontal trof and cold
front join with best shot of snow squalls and likely of longer
duration. The next few hours focus will be the timing of cold
front and any potential snow squalls.
Afternoon discussion...Potentially dangerous snow squalls
will arrive in northern New York tonight and intensify in
Vermont, with greatest impacts generally at higher elevations.
Details below.
A very well defined, strong squall line will move through our region
tonight, with precipitation becoming mainly snow despite very mild
temperatures out ahead of the front. Sharpening low level
convergence will cause intense rising motions that will bring the
sub-freezing air aloft downward, leading to rain changing to
snow fairly quickly where it begins as rain. Confidence in this
scenario has increased looking upstream at observations in
Toronto. One surface weather station where afternoon
temperatures reached 46 saw rain cooled air dropping the
temperature to the upper 30s, then as precipitation intensified
the temperature dropped to 34 in 10 minutes with quarter mile
visibility and 40 MPH gusts in a snow squall. The very cold
cloud top temperatures associated with the convective line will
support a chance of thundersnow, and we are already seeing
lightning along the line in southern Ontario near Lake Ontario
at this hour.
The initial squall line mentioned previously will enter St.
Lawrence County around 7 PM, where southwesterly winds gusting
near wind advisory level (up to 45 MPH) will be ongoing before
the precipitation arrives. Model guidance suggests two separate
snow squalls this evening will exist over northern New York
before consolidating into a single, intensifying line in
Vermont, with very intense snowfall expected especially in
central and eastern Vermont. Think these areas will be under the
greatest risk of true snow squall conditions, with all of the
elements coming together: whiteout conditions, strong winds
producing blowing snow, and flash freeze as temperatures are
more likely to fall below freezing while precipitation is
falling. Thankfully the timing of the squall between 9 PM and
midnight will reduce the impacts. Travel is not recommended
during that time; anyone who must be out on the roads should
take great care to reduce speeds and potentially pull over.
After midnight, strong cold air advection will continue with
chilly winds causing temperatures to fall into the teens and
twenties. As a result, any standing water will become ice if
left untreated.
Thursday is looking like a very wintry day for the end of March,
with temperatures about 15 degrees below normal and wind chills
mainly in the teens and low twenties during the day. Some
instability and terrain-driven lift could allow for mountain
snow showers during the day, especially northern areas such as
Jay Peak and points east where a slight chance of snow showers
is offered at this time. Otherwise, diurnally driven clouds will
be around but at least there should be plenty of sunshine. A
lack of clouds will help temperatures fall back into the teens
to low twenties tomorrow night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 PM EDT Wednesday...No major changes made to the previous
forecast thinking for the end of the work week and through the
weekend. The main focus for weather across the region continues to
be a mature cutoff vertically stacked low pressure system over the
central CONUS Friday morning which will lift into the Great Lakes
Friday night, then move northeast to the Gulf of St. Lawrence by
Saturday night.
BLUF: While there are several potential impacts from this storm,
including river flooding and gusty winds; neither appear to be
particularly hazardous and more a nuisance. In addition, the
associated upper level forcing has just come onto the Pacific Coast
this morning, and better sampling combined with moving into the
window where hi-res models will be available will allow us to fine
tune this forecast over the next 24-48 hours.
Rainfall/Snowmelt/Flooding: Several rounds of light to moderate
precipitation are expected to translate across the region
Friday/Saturday, with periods of either very light precip or lulls
in between. The first round will come Friday afternoon/evening as
shortwave energy rides east along an elongated warm front stretching
from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. With this batch,
thermal profiles support mainly rain at the start, but temperatures
should wet-bulb low enough to support a period of snow across the
Adirondacks and eastern Vermont, before changing back to all rain by
midnight. Any snow accumulations will be very minor, and mainly
above 1000 feet. As the warm front lifts north of the Canadian
border Friday night, widespread rain is expected Friday night before
a mid-level dry slot brings a brief lull mid/late morning on
Saturday. Finally, as the attending cold front sweeps through during
the afternoon/evening, the final round of precip is expected as
rain, ending briefly as snow. Overall, storm total QPF for the 2
days will range 0.5-1", but combined with warm temps/dewpoints and
gusty winds on Saturday, significant snow melt is expected to
contribute to area waterways. At this time we`re not expecting any
widespread problems, but a few mainstem rivers could rise to bankful
or minor flood. It`s something we`ll be monitoring over the next 2
days.
Winds: Gusty SSW winds of 25-35 mph are likely Saturday associated
with the strongest low level jet passage of 40-50kts, but post-cold
frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday soundings indicate much
better mixing potential from the northwest where some downslope
prone regions such as off the Adirondacks into Clinton County, NY
and southern Greens in Windsor County could see gusts approach 40
mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 344 PM EDT Wednesday...Quiet yet unseasonably cold conditions
return for Sunday post frontal passage with highs only in the 30s
expected. This combined with gusty winds up to 35 mph will make it
feel more like winter again, but as high pressure builds in for
Monday a return to normal temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s
is forecast. A weak clipper like system will bring the chance for
rain showers Monday night into Tuesday, followed by dry conditions
Tuesday into Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z Friday...Widespread impacts from a strong cold
front will occur from west to east across the region over the
next few hours. There will be sharp fluctuations in visibility
in intense snow with freezing level rapidly falling. Expect all
sites will see visibility drop to a half mile or less with under
a quarter mile likely at higher elevation sites, with these
conditions lasting mainly 1 hour or less. Outside of the squall
line, cloud bases will largely be VFR. Winds will be on the
increase from the south/southwest, gusting over 30 kt at times
across the St. Lawrence Valley and 20 to 25 kts in the
Adirondacks and Champlain Valley. After 01Z, brief stronger
gusts will be possible with snow squalls at Vermont sites, and
sustained westerly winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
will follow through much of the 06Z to 12Z period before
gradually diminishing. Wind direction will trend northwesterly
after 09Z.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN,
Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Chance FZRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Definite RA, Definite SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/SLW
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Neiles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
911 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will approach overnight and cross the
region early Thursday morning. High pressure will build south of
the area Friday. Low pressure will approach Friday night and
track to our north Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure
will build in from the west on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9:11 PM Update: High clouds continue to stream across the FA
well ahead of a strong cold front which is moving across
southern Quebec south into central NY State. Clouds will
continue to increase and snow will develop across western
portions of the FA around 1-2 AM, and move east to the eastern
Maine/New Brunswick border by around 4-5 AM. Currently there are
many convective elements with snow showers and a few squalls
with the front. Given the time of day and that the high
resolution models show the best chance of brief bursts of
heavier snow/wind will be across our western zones in the middle
of the night am not too concerned about the need for any snow
squall warnings across our FA. The fresh snow combined with
strong post-frontal wind tomorrow will likely be a bigger
concern for blowing and drifting snow in open areas. Minor
tweaks based on the current observations, but no significant
changes to the ongoing forecast.
Previous discussion:
Mostly clear skies will continue across much of the forecast
area through this evening ahead of an approaching arctic front.
A surface low pressure will track north of the St. Lawrence
River, pulling a quick moving cold front through the forecast
area as the upper level trough begins to negatively tilt. Plenty
of moisture will be pulled up along the boundary, however the
speed at which the front pushes through the region will limit
total snow accumulation. Saturation along the front will favor
the dendritic growth zone, so snow to liquid ratios will
approach 20 to 1 as the event unfolds, leading to a light and
fluffy snow consistency.
Steep low level lapse rates and weak CAPE associated with the
frontal passage may give rise to the development heavy snow
showers or even a few snow squalls along the front itself. Steep
low level lapse rates will persist through Thursday afternoon,
even as lift from the front becomes a thing of the past, so an
isolated snow squall cannot be ruled out through Thursday
afternoon, though the ingredients will be less plentiful at that
time. HRRR and other CAM guidance simulated reflectivity
products suggest that though linear snow showers may develop
behind the initial front on Thursday, they will line up more as
plumes off the St. Lawrence instead of bowing segments marching
eastward across the forecast area. Given this convective storm
mode, the threat for daytime snow squalls is low across most of
the forecast area Thursday afternoon.
Winds will pick up behind the frontal passage with a tightened
pressure gradient aloft, and gusts 30 to 35 mph will loft
recently fallen fluffy snow with ease, leading to patchy blowing
snow, especially in open areas. Any blowing and drifting snow
may result in sudden visibility reduction on roads.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thu night into Fri AM will be breezy with gusts 20-25mph
possible on westerly to northwest winds as the front departs to
the east. Potent 500mb shortwave energy will be passing east of
the area but slowing down due to some 500mb blocking in the
North-Atlantic. Skies will be gradually clearing into the
morning hours. There is a decent cold pocket behind this
departing system with the air originating over the Northwestern
Passages and spending significant time over Nunavut into
Manitoba of Canada. This airmass is cold but quick lasting only
for the day Friday. Expect lows in the 10-15F range across the
north with upper teens to low 20s across Central to Southern
areas with upper 20s along the coast. Weak warm front pushes
northeast during the day as winds shift southerly and expect
temperatures to climb into the low 40s south and upper 30s
north. Clouds will be increasing quickly in the late morning
with nearly overcast conditions by late day. Warm air advection
precipitation will break out by evening across southern Maine.
There is significant uncertainty on if dry low levels will keep
any precipitation making it into our CWA. Precip will be mainly
snow to start but quickly become rain along the coast into the
Southern Highlands. There remains a ton of uncertainty within
the operational models on if dry air will be entrenched
preventing precipitation for awhile late Fri night. For now will
bring POPs up to likely by midnight. Expecting rain across the
southern 1/3rd of the CWA with snow across the north. As warm
air works in aloft cannot rule out a period of freezing rain
across the North Woods and Moosehead region overnight into
Saturday AM.
A robust low pressure system will track from the Great Lakes
into western Quebec during the day Saturday. This will dry
significant warm up along the Eastern Seaboard. This will result
in all wintry precip changing to rain across the area.
Uncertainty exists on exactly how much rain falls and if a large
dry slot develops over the CWA during the day. For now will go
with categorical POPs but keep QPF on the lighter side. There is
the possibility of a secondary low forming along the Downeast
coast and potentially enhancing rainfall totals. At this point
will keep areawide totals lower with perhaps 1-2 inches of snow
across the far north followed by everywhere seeing 0.25-0.5
inches of rain. Potentially does exist for 0.5-1.0 inches of
rain falling across the area. As it pertains to hydrology
concerns at this point much of the snow is melted in the
Downeast and southern Highlands. The deep snowpack across the
north remains cold enough and low enough density to mainly
absorb the rain with little discharge. However, any heavier rain
may result in more discharge than what is currently modeled.
Given the ice conditions on southern rivers pretty much gone and
northern rivers the ice remains thick, not expecting much of ice
movement. Expect perhaps some water on ice and continued
melting/rot of ice but movement isn`t expected. High
temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s north with upper 40s
to around 50F south. During the afternoon Saturday ahead of the
cold front expect gusty southerly winds to develop. Gusts may
approach 30-45mph potentially reaching low end advisory level
depending on the strength of the low-level jet and how
favorable the mixing depth is on that day.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Expect steady rain to become showers during the evening as the
cold front pushes through the area and winds shift west and
weaken some in most locations. The cold front will cause precip
types to change from rain to snow especially across the north
the quickest. Temperatures across the entire area fall below
freezing by daybreak which may result in pockets of slippery
conditions as melt/rainfall refreezes. NW winds will quickly
pick back up by daybreak with gusts 20-35mph by the time the sun
comes up. Sunday expect a cool day with breezy to gusty NW winds
during the day. Temperatures struggle to get to 30F across the
north with upper 30s across southern areas. NW winds gusting
30-35mph with potentially higher gusts across the higher terrain
and north.
Monday features mainly a dry day but some snow showers may
develop late day across the northwest into the Central
Highlands as another disturbance approaches. Chilly start Monday
AM with lows in the 20s south and low to mid teens north. Highs
rebound into the upper 30s north with mid 40s south. A clipper
system pushes through Monday night into Tuesday with some rain
and snow showers. Beyond that another potential system but
models are all over the place on timing and tracks.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected through the late evening hours.
Downeast terminals may drop to MVFR after 09z in rain and snow
showers. Aroostook terminals may drop to MVFR or IFR vsbys after
08z and in snow. Precip and low cigs will be relatively short
lived, with conditions gradually returning to VFR through the
day on Thursday. South wind increasing to 10 to 15 knots
tonight, shifting west 15 to 20 knots and gusty Thu.
SHORT TERM: Fri...VFR. W winds 5-15kts shift SW late.
Sat...MVFR/IFR. Rain south, Snow turning to Rain north. S winds
15-25kts with gusts 30-40kts possible. Winds shift W by
midnight. LLWS possible.
Sun...VFR. NW 15-20kts with gusts 30-35kts.
Mon...VFR/MVFR. Chance of snow showers. SW winds 10-20kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will begin to ramp up after midnight tonight,
with gusts reaching gale force by daybreak over the coastal
waters. Intercoastal waters will see gusts over 25 kts shortly
after midnight and will reach gusts to 30 kts by daybreak. Gale
force winds will persist through the day on Thursday, with seas
responding as coastal waters reach 5 to 7 ft and a SW swell.
SHORT TERM: Gales through Fri AM across the outer waters with
SCA conditions over the Intra-Coastal. Winds falling below SCA
by late day. Another round of Gales by Saturday late morning
with mainly southerly winds. Winds become SCA Sat night and
shift W-NW. NW high end SCA to low end Gales possible Sunday.
Brief period of no SCA conditions Sun night late before SCA
conditions again Monday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-
051.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...AStrauser/CB
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...AStrauser/CB/Sinko
Marine...AStrauser/CB/Sinko
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1129 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will exit eastern Pennsylvania by midnight
with a rapid drop in temperatures overnight preceding dry
weather tomorrow. Then,a warming trend is expected into the
weekend with periods of rain and strong gusty winds as March
ends more like a lion than a lamb. The pattern will remain
breezy and turn noticeably colder into Saturday night followed
by improving conditions and a nice start to the first week of
April.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Strong cold front blasted across central PA this evening with
widespread 40-50 mph wind gusts and rain changing to heavy snow
showers along the squall line. That line has now splintered and
while areas of moderate precipitation are still active, dramatic
snow bursts have dwindled. It also appears that we avoided any
major impacts from this strong FROPA, as temperatures just a few
degrees colder would have have this one a lot more impactful.
Major story for the rest of the night are the plunging
temperatures. Most if not all of central PA will be below
freezing by early Thursday morning and this will most certainly
lead to some icy spots where the wind was unable to dry
sufficiently before the cooldown. We`ve advertised this well to
partners.
The remainder of the frontal precip should clear my southeast
by midnight and any lingering snow showers behind the front
should dissipate by Thursday morning as 1030mb high reaches
western PA. By Thursday morning, expect clear skies and low
temperatures ranging from near 20F in the northern mountains to
around freezing in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect another relative cool down on Thursday with highs 5F to
10F lower vs. Wednesday. That said, the cool down may not be
quite as noticeable as the Monday-Tuesday temp transition with
a much lighter wind and plenty of sunshine. Highs in the 40-50F
range will be 5-15F below late March climo. An increasing
southerly flow and developing WAA pattern should favor a non
diurnal temp trend Thursday night with and minTs a few to
several degrees warmer than Wednesday night.
High pressure will slide off the East Coast Friday morning with
a southerly flow developing. This should lead to significantly
milder temperatures for the end of the week and into the first
part of the weekend. Current guidance supports temperatures in
the 50s and 60s on Friday with an additional 10 degrees added to
those highs on Saturday afternoon. The realization of such warm
temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be dependent on the
extent of precipitation during the day and how quickly a strong
cold front moves through. There remains some uncertainty in
timing and extent of precipitation, but confidence is high in a
widespread soaking rainfall Fri-Sat.
As the cold front sweeps through on Saturday, timing will be
important for the potential threat of severe weather. Arrival in
the afternoon during peak heating on Saturday would favor more
storms and perhaps higher severe weather chances. Earlier/later
arrival in the morning or late evening would limit the severe
threat, but it bears watching. Rain may also mix with or change
to wet snow behind the front later Saturday north and west of
the I-99 and I-80 corridor, with little to not accum expected.
Ahead of and after the cold front sweeps through, expect gusty
winds to develop thanks to a deepening surface low over Quebec.
The wind threat looks formidable with this system and gusts in
excess of 40mph appear plausible for most of the area Saturday
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The blustery winds will begin to diminish Saturday night, and
any lingering rain/snow showers across the north/west should
taper off as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley.
After a seasonably chilly Sunday, temperatures are expected to
moderate heading into early next week. Medium range models show
predominantly zonal upper level flow to begin the week, with a
weak shortwave crossing the northeastern United States Mon
night into Tuesday along with an associated weak cold front.
However, there are some difference between the medium range
models with the sensible weather early next week. The 12z/29
GFS/GEFS allows the weak cold front to tap into some Gulf
moisture and produces a few rain showers Mon night into Tuesday,
while the 00z/29 ECMWF/ECENS shows a drier solution. Regardless,
both models are in agreement in bringing a more significant
frontal system into the area by the middle of next week with a
better shot at some wet weather.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Drier air is pouring into the region at 03Z in the wake of a
departing cold front. Lingering MVFR cigs noted at 03Z at
KJST/KAOO, but upstream satellite imagery and latest RAP
indicate VFR even there by around 04Z. High pressure will build
in behind the cold front later tonight, resulting in clearing
skies and a diminishing wind.
Widespread VFR conditions and light winds are a near certainty
Thursday, as high pressure builds over the state.
Outlook...
Fri...PM rain/low cigs likely, mainly NW Mtns.
Sat...AM showers/reduced cigs possible, mainly N Mtns. Turning
windy with late day snow showers possible W Mtns.
Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Low humidity and the breezy conditions Wednesday afternoon
suggested an elevated risk of wildfire spread. However,
coordination with the PA Bureau of Forestry (PABOF) indicated
that an additional day of drying/curing is needed to raise fire
weather concerns. We expect minimum RH to bottom in the 15-25%
range Thursday afternoon, but lighter winds and cooler
temperatures (40-50F) should mitigate an elevated risk of
wildfire spread.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Banghoff
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Evanego
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1000 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023
For the short term period, active weather is expected with the
passage of a low pressure system that will allow for strong winds,
fire weather conditions and blowing dust.
Tonight, the surface high pressure over the Plains is forecasted to
shift off to the east. With that, the low pressure along the Front
Range will slowly being to expand. With limited deepening over the
night, the pressure gradient will broaden and winds will lighten and
shift to out of the east. With the light winds, most of the area
will cool into the 20`s though some higher level clouds will keep
temperatures from cooling as low as they can go. A few locales in
Southwestern Nebraska may see either low level clouds or some fog
with light easterly winds and the potential for some slight surface
ridging over the area.
Tomorrow is forecasted to potentially be an impactful day, mainly
for the counties along and south of US 40. Those counties are
currently under a Red Flag Warning as RH may drop into the single
digits while winds may gust up to 55 mph. With the low level flow
shifting to out of the south ahead of the deepening low, warm air
will advect in and allow for well above normal temperatures in the
70`s with an 80 or two possible. With that and dewpoints dropping
into the single digits and low teens behind a dryline, dry
conditions will be set up in an area that missed some of the recent
snowfall. With the dry conditions and strong winds associated with
the deepening surface low and strong flow aloft ahead of the upper
trough, dangerous fire weather conditions are expected. How far
north these conditions will extend is currently uncertain as the
farther the surface low moves south and the faster it moves into the
area, the lower the chance for fire weather conditions. It could
still be somewhat breezy, but RH values will also be higher.
Ensembles show a spread in solutions with more than a couple still
showing the low moving in faster than what some of the deterministic
models are showing. As such, did not expand the warning but counties
nearby the warning should remain alert.
In regard to the dust, the dust forecast is still on track with
conditions favoring a plume of dust developing south/southwest of
the area around noon and moving northeast during the day. With a
deep mix layer, the potential for very low visibility and/or brown
outs is low. That being said, visibilities may still drop to around
3sm and those with health sensitivities may still be affected.
Thursday night into Friday, the surface low and upper trough is
forecasted to move off to the east. With the forecasted speed of the
low passing through and dry conditions during the day Thursday,
precipitation is unlikely though some wrap around can`t be ruled out
for Southwestern Nebraska. Anything that does fall would be
negligible. The issue is that strong winds are forecasted again for
Friday on the back side of the low. The stronger winds favor the
northern half of the area and could allow for some more blowing dust
based on lapse rates and speeds. The good thing is the lower RH will
be offset to the east so critical fire weather conditions are
unlikely. That being said, could still be a bad day for fires and
air quality with dust and strong winds. High temperatures are
forecasted to be in the 40`s and 50`s as colder temperatures advect
into the area from the north.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023
Zonal flow aloft will prevail through the weekend. Both days will
be dry and mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Fire weather will
be a concern both days as well, with humidity dropping to 20
percent or less along and south of Interstate 70 in Kansas and
Colorado. Wind speeds appear they will be highest on Saturday with
southwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph in the same area. Wind gusts
on Sunday currently are forecast closer to 20 mph, with a weak
front potentially settling into the area as well. If those
parameters hold, would expect critical conditions on Saturday and
elevated conditions on Sunday.
Early next week, a strong trough will move from the western CONUS
early in the week and into the central and northern plains as a
cut off low by Tuesday and Wednesday. Ahead of the system, mild
conditions and fire weather concerns continue for Monday. As the
upper low emerges onto the northern plains, the local area appears
to be dry slotted initially, but wraparound precipitation in the
form of rain and snow impacts the area mainly Tuesday but possibly
into Wednesday. GFS shows accumulating snow in northwest part of
the area, while ECMWF keeps snow to the north of the area. Wind
may also be a concern on Tuesday, with the ECMWF in particular
showing northwest winds gusting over 50 mph in the wraparound
scenario. 0-2km lapse rates are not currently favorable for
blowing dust. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 40s
and 50s both Tuesday and Wednesday and lows mainly in the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023
KGLD...VFR conditions are currently expected through the taf
period. From taf issuance through 15z, winds will be generally
light and variable. There is a possibility per model moisture
x-sections and latest HRRR ceiling forecasts that stratus and sub
VFR cigs move over the terminal in the 10z-14z timeframe. After
16z, gusty southwest to west winds are expected with the highest
gusts (up to 35kts or so) around 21z.
KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A northeast
wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will continue through 11z before
becoming light and variable. From 16z-01z, winds establish a
southerly component at speeds generally under 12kts expect in the
21z-22z timeframe when gusts up to 25kts are possible. After 02z,
winds slowly veer to the southwest then west at speeds under
11kts. Despite model moisture x-sections showing a pretty
saturated boundary layer, cirrus will move over the terminal and
could prevent the potential stratus from developing. For now will
keep stratus and sub VFR cigs out of the forecast but should it
develop, it would be in the 09z-15z timeframe approximately.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
Thursday for KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
Bottom Line Up Front: Slow moving but strong weather system will
bring strong winds to the region with wind gusts in the 50-60 mph
range. Fire weather will likely be very high to critical for Friday
as well. Thunderstorms chances for Thursday night and into Friday
morning look to concentrated to Eastern Kansas.
Short term forecast starts out quiet with a weak and nearly
stationary frontal system stretched across the state. This system
will keep much of Northern Kansas a decent amount cooler with the
remainder of the state near normal temperatures for this time of
year. Tonight, a deep and slow moving upper level low, currently
over the West Coast will move into the Intermountain West and the
Rockies. As this occurs, the upper level jet will slowly approach
the weak nearly stationary front currently over the state. As this
occurs, the warm front will push further north and allow WAA to
remain in firm control for Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, the
upper low will begin to push into the Central Rockies and the
attendant jet stream will begin to come into phase with the surface
front over the state. This will increase the pressure gradient
throughout the region and create a rather windy day for Thursday and
into Friday as well. Mixing is expected to be very deep with some
short term model ensembles showing mixing as high as 500mb. This
brings the potential for strong jet stream type winds to mix to the
surface. Instability is also expected to be deep but the ensembles
are not quite on the same page on this detail. That said, there is
enough support for sustained winds in the high wind warning level
but after collaboration, held off on the watch for this forecast
cycle.
Moisture transport ahead of this system also looks to be rather
strong. This will likely bring dew point temperatures into the 50s
across the region as well. This is the main point that will likely
keep the fire conditions in check Thursday but still could see very
high Thursday and possibly critical conditions Friday across parts
of the region (see fire weather section for more details). Usually,
the amount of moisture that is being pushed into the region increase
the chances for showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, once the
upper low comes into phase with the surface low, the front will
begin to pick up some significant speed and quickly push to the
east. This will occur during the night Thursday and into the morning
hours on Friday. The ECMWF/GFS families are indicating very low
chances for showers or thunderstorms over the CWA Thursday night
with the best chances over the far Southeastern portions of Kansas.
The NAM is the most bullish on the precipitation indicating a decent
chance for showers or thunderstorms over much of the CWA during the
night Thursday. The RAP is not far behind the NAM but keeps the
precipitation generally east of the Flint Hills. All the models
bring the precipitation to end by late morning and the early
afternoon as the front comes through. As a result, kept POPs low
for most of the CWA with the exception of areas east of the Flint
Hills.
Temperatures Friday will be a challenge. Current model trends
indicate a more Pacific airmass will move into the CWA Friday and
will temperatures to remain fairly warm with the cooler Canadian
airmass coming in Friday night. The main concern here is the
orientation of the Canadian high to the north with the upper level
low. Its current orientation suggests the cooler air will move into
the region sooner than currently forecast. Models sometimes have
issues with this orientation and as such, could see temperatures a
little cooler Friday.
Metzger
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
The extended range starts out rather quiet with a cool Canadian High
pressure system building into the region. While the CAA will
initial be rather strong allowing for a fairly cold Saturday
morning, the orientation of this high pressure is such that it will
not hang around too long. Temperatures are expected to rebound
fairly quick with near normal temperatures expected for Saturday
afternoon. By Saturday evening, WAA will return and allow
temperatures to rebound Sunday and into next week. Temperatures are
expected to be a decent amount above normal for this time of year
with 80s not out of the question to start next week. Models diverge
at this point as the next weather system is expected to encroach on
the region. Temperatures are expected to return to normal or a
little below when this happens but a number of questions remain due
to the differences in the ensemble families on timing and intensity.
Metzger
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
VFR conditions will continue at all sites through much of the
overnight hours. LLWS concerns increase late this evening and
overnight as a 45-55 kt LLJ develops around 1.4 kft. LLWS concerns
should remain west of CNU with the jet axis remaining across
central and western KS. LLWS concerns will subside shortly after
sunrise as surface winds increase to 15-25 kt with gusts 30+ kt.
Short range model guidance has further aligned with low CIGS
overspreading south central and southeast KS (mainly ICT and CNU)
and have introduced CIGS accordingly. Introduced scattered MVFR
groups at HUT and SLN with higher MVFR potential remaining just
soutehast of those terminals.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
Thursday looks to be a low end fire weather day despite the higher
winds. High dew point values for Thursday will keep temperatures up
but fairly humid and thus, keep fire weather conditions in check.
That said, a few counties in Central Kansas may reach very high for
a few hours but this is not expected to be a significant issue.
Friday looks to be the main fire weather day. As the front comes
through, the dew points will drop off significantly and winds behind
the front will continue to be rather high. Winds up to 50 to 60 mph
are possible during the day Friday. This will bring fire weather
into the very high to critical range for a good portion of Friday
until the winds die off.
Metzger
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 45 67 57 70 / 0 0 30 10
Hutchinson 44 68 54 67 / 0 0 20 10
Newton 45 67 56 68 / 0 0 30 10
ElDorado 45 66 56 70 / 0 0 30 20
Winfield-KWLD 46 66 56 71 / 0 10 40 10
Russell 40 72 46 61 / 0 0 10 10
Great Bend 43 70 46 62 / 0 0 10 10
Salina 43 70 54 66 / 0 0 20 10
McPherson 44 68 54 66 / 0 0 20 10
Coffeyville 46 64 57 75 / 0 10 50 40
Chanute 44 65 57 74 / 0 0 50 40
Iola 43 65 56 74 / 0 0 50 40
Parsons-KPPF 45 64 57 75 / 0 10 50 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 4 AM CDT Friday for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Metzger
LONG TERM...Metzger
AVIATION...BMB
FIRE WEATHER...Metzger
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
637 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
...NEW AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
Starting things out this evening glancing at radar illustrates
echoes advancing ESE across portions of the CWA. Observations are
far and few between reporting -RA but some of this is making it to
the ground, especially within higher cores albeit most of it,
especially lighter returns is virga. This is rather evident by
looking at the recent HRRR sounding valid for late this afternoon
illustrating a sufficient pocket of dry air between H9 and H7,
topped with a distinct moist layer from 10kft to the upper
tropopause. Going to keep the same idea going from the morning
update by slightly increasing PoPs through the rest of this
afternoon/evening before diminishing shortly after sunset (pushes
offshore) and keep the mention of sprinkles for areas >10% / <14%
which carries the patch across the area nicely in the weather
grids. Not going to guarantee more than a light drizzle/shower
with this activity as it will take more dynamic lift than a
weakening mid-level impulse to squeeze out enough drops to wetbulb
this dry layer, but as always will keep a watch for it.
Additionally, did drop highs this afternoon to match trends as we
are struggling to warm thanks to cloud cover. Introduced NBM 10th
percentile for highs which matches obs rather well given the
diurnal trend derived from MaxT`s.
Otherwise, this weakening mid-level disturbance presses east, as
does the clouds as we return to mostly clear skies tonight. No
major adjustments made overnight with a pretty chilly night ahead,
moreso for northern and eastern areas closer within the
proximity/influence of the surface high over the mid Atlantic
states. Going into Thursday, hey it`s looking nice! Highs should
have no problem climbing into the upper 70`s to lower 80`s
underneath mostly clear skies. However, focus shifts west yet
again at the next developing major storm system expected to impact
a large portion of the central US into central MS valley region
on Friday. At this time, greatest maximized overlap of severe
weather ingredients remains to our north with a strong divergent
jet downstream of a negative tilt trough axis sliding east into
the mid/upper MS valley region. At the surface, a deepening
surface low and attendant cold front will swing west, eventually
occluding with time over the Great Lakes. This occlusion, and
eventual directional transition of the front to become more closer
aligned with the mean/mid-level flow will slow it down some as it
crawls towards our area early Saturday. For now, only lingering
forcing remains to be mainly frontogenetic as greatest jet
dynamics ejects well away from us. NAM soundings for KMCB
illustrate a unidirectional flow aloft with unimpressive mid-level
winds. Can`t rule out a thin line of showers or storms with this
front early Saturday, but coverage will be limited especially
south of I-10/12. Not going to fully rule out an embedded strong
storm, but is mainly looking unimpressive at this time. But for
us, clouds will increase steadily late Thursday into early Friday
with another warm and nice day ahead, just more of a mostly cloudy
day overall.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
A weak cold front will sink southward through the area on Saturday.
By the time it reaches the local area, the upper trough will be
lifting northeastward toward New England and flow will be more
parallel to the surface boundary meaning it won`t be in a hurry to
move southward and there won`t be a big push of cooler and drier air
behind it. With the boundary in the area and able to provide a
focusing mechanism, think there will be at least a few showers
popping up and have adjusted POPs upward slightly from the
deterministic NBM guidance as most of the operational models have
been trending toward a slower passage with lingering POPs.
Saturday night looks to be just a little cooler than previous nights
but still about 5 degrees warmer than normal. The cooler
temperatures will be a result of slightly cooler and drier air
filtering into the area behind the dissipating front, but it won`t
last long. By late Sunday the front will lift back northward as
another upper trough begins to move into the middle part of the
country.
Moving into the first part of next week, a longer wave upper trough
will dig into the western CONUS and then progress eastward. As is
typical this time of year, there are large differences between the
various models concerning the details of this system including both
timing, location and strength of the upper low. All of these factors
will have significant impacts on the associated surface front and
its impacts to the local area. For the time being, will continue to
stick to the NBM forecast and monitor trends over the coming days to
narrow down the possibilities as the system gets closer.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
VFR conditions are expected through the cycle. Winds will also
remain light and should begin to transition back to a more
southerly direction on Thursday. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
Persistent easterly winds will prevail this evening as high
pressure continues to build into the Mid Atlantic States. Have
introduced Exercise Caution headlines for Gulf waters along and
south of the SE LA coastline to the MS delta out 60nm through this
evening as obs continue to show winds 15-20kts at times.
Conditions will steadily improve tonight into the day on Thursday,
but the next focus will be an approaching cold front due to swing
through here early this weekend on Saturday. At this time, winds
are expected to pick up form the south/onshore at 10-15kt, then
shift as the front pushes through later on Saturday. Thereafter,
winds transition from northwesterly but return back to onshore
flow next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 45 77 60 82 / 0 10 0 20
BTR 51 80 66 86 / 0 10 0 10
ASD 48 77 64 83 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 57 77 66 82 / 10 0 0 10
GPT 49 73 64 77 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 47 76 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...KLG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
708 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
.UPDATED for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- Multi-faceted Spring system to impact the central CONUS Thursday
thru Friday night with rain, thunder, ice, and snow.
- A few elevated thunderstorms capable of producing hail with
localized heavy rain possible in southern MN through western WI
Thursday night into Friday morning.
- Winter Weather Advisory is in effect Thursday evening into Friday
morning across portions of east-central MN. A glaze to 0.10" of
freezing rain will be possible.
- Winter Storm Watch in effect Friday afternoon into Saturday morning
for the potential of several inches of snow and blowing/drifting
snow.
- Sunday looks to produce the first 50 of the year in the Twin Cities
and points south and east.
- Another complex Spring system looks to impact region next week.
Today and tonight... A surface high pressure sprawling over the
region will slowly move eastward over the next day or so. A cold,
dry airmass will dictate the weather over the next day or so.
Satellite imagery shows an area of mid level clouds moving across
western Wisconsin, with blue skies over south and central Minnesota.
The combination of light winds, high pressure, and clear skies will
lead to another night of January-like temperatures across the Upper
Midwest. Overnight temperatures bottom out around zero degrees with
temperatures near 10 in the Twin Cities metro.
Thursday through Saturday Morning... The first of two potential
Spring storms during this forecast period. A potent low pressure
system will develop over the Plains on Thursday. This system will
deepen further in conjunction with the deep 500mb trof coming
onshore in the western CONUS. Strong moisture advection with this
system will aid in cloud cover becoming the dominant feature across
the Upper Midwest Thursday afternoon. An initial band of
precipitation may develop Thursday afternoon/evening as the surge of
warm, moist air creates an band of enhanced isentropic ascent along
the low-mid level warm front. The residual cold air in place while
isentropic lift will aid in a light wintry mix of precipitation for
Thu eve and Thu night. Precipitation should start out primarily snow
before turning to a snow/freezing rain mix and eventually freezing
rain/drizzle Thursday night. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for portions of central Minnesota for Thursday evening into
Friday morning to cover the potential freezing rain. Icing amounts
of up to 0.10" are possible.
We`ll also see a strong low level jet develop Thursday evening
across the Plains. This will allow warm air advection to push into
far southern portions Minnesota and western Wisconsin, and will
become the catalyst for potential elevated convection Thursday night
into Friday morning across S MN into W WI. Main concern with any
elevated convection is the potential for severe hail and locally
heavy rain. There is the question of how far north does the surface
warm front push? Should the surface warm front push into S MN, there
would be the potential for low topped supercells. This isn`t the
favored solution, but a few CAMs like the HRRR suggest that the
front pushes into S MN, so it can`t be completely ignored. SPC has a
day 2 and day 3 marginal risk for severe weather across SW and S MN.
Hail is the primary concern.
The low pressure center will shift E across Nebraska Thursday night
through Friday morning, then move ENE into the Great Lakes by
Saturday morning, effectively cutting off the low level warm air
layer which will contribute to any FZRA production. Temperatures may
warm little, before cooling off during the second half of the day
Friday. This will be a key factor in determining the timing of the p-
type change over to SN and the amount of accumulating snow expected
for Friday evening into Friday night. Friday to Friday night liquid
QPF`s are widely expected to be 0.50" or more. Some guidance
continues to highlight the potential for a deformation band with QPF
amounts of an 1.00". Temperatures fall through the 20s Friday night,
making for nearly ideal snowfall production, particularly with a
deep moisture profile, most of which falls nicely within the DGZ
across all model guidance. Ratios should be closer to 10:1 or even
12:1 on the back edge. There is potential for areas of blowing snow,
and blizzard-like conditions, over open areas of western and west
central MN Friday through Friday night. The heaviest snowfall rates
look to come Friday evening through Friday night, making for
potentially hazardous travel conditions going into the weekend.
Forecast confidence is increasing for this upcoming system.
Expect a lull in precipitation is expected Friday morning through
early afternoon Friday before the second round of rain and snow
arrive Friday afternoon. This precipitation will gradually
transition to all Snow between 21z Fri and 06z Sat. Heavy snow lead
to several inches of accumulation by Saturday morning. Snow will
taper off by sunrise Saturday morning. Additionally, blizzard-like
conditions are possible due to strong northwesterly winds gusting 35+
kts Friday night across portions of western, central Minnesota.
We`ve issued a Winter Storm Watch for a large portion of Minnesota
and all of west-central Wisconsin for the potential of 4 to 6" of
snow and blowing/drifting snow.
Saturday through Wednesday... Temperatures will be 10 to 15 below on
Saturday, but quickly rebound into the mid to upper 40s on Sunday as
warm air advection regime kicks in. This could be the first 50 of
the year for MSP and the Twin Cities. Temperatures appear to stay
near-normal with highs in the low to mid 40s early next week. There
is increasing confidence for another Spring storm next Tuesday into
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023
VFR conditions overnight and Thursday morning before low clouds and
precipitation move in during the afternoon. The precipitation will be
a rain/snow mix, but could have freezing rain if surface
temperatures remain cold. Winds will become southeast.
KMSP...
VFR conditions overnight and Thursday, with MVFR/IFR developing
Thursday afternoon and overnight. Could have some FZRA or PL mix in a
the start of precipitation if the surface temperatures are cool
enough. Otherwise expect temperatures to warm toward evening with
mainly rain expected into the overnight hours. A few rumbles of
thunder are possible as well, but did not include TS in the TAF at
this time.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...AM MVFR/IFR cigs likely. PM snow and IFR vis likely. Wind NE
25G40 kts.
SAT...VFR with lingering MVFR possible. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. WInd SW 10-20 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for
Benton-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Stearns-Todd.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
Anoka-Benton-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
Kanabec-Le Sueur-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-
Sherburne-Washington-Wright.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning
for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-
Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-
Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
afternoon for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-
Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
159 PM PDT Wed Mar 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of low pressure will continue to move along the coast
of California through Thursday, leading to cold temperatures,
gusty winds and periods of rain and mountain snow. Friday into the
weekend will feature warmer and drier weather with less wind.
Another trough will dig across the western part the country by
Monday. This will lead to cooler and windy conditions for the
region for early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)...
Satellite and radar imagery currently show our system slicing
through the LA basin with partial clearing behind it. This will
continue to push south and east through the afternoon, where
everyone will see a break from the rain and snow with a bit of
sunshine.
The area of low pressure will push southward closer to Socal
tonight, bringing more showery weather into the picture. Showers
will increase in coverage across the region overnight. Instability
also looks to increase during this time into Thursday (generally
100-300 J/kg), which will provide a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Both HRRR & WRF model guidance depict showers
dissipating north to south by late morning into the afternoon.
Gusty winds will continue for the mountains and deserts through
Thursday afternoon. Winds near the coast will also be a bit gusty
(especially SD coast) on Thursday as well. If all that wasn`t
enough, this system is a cold one! The coldest day overall will be
on Thursday with many areas 10 to 20 degrees below average.
After the system departs, we can expect a bit of warming with
partly to mostly cloudy skies and dry weather. Plentiful highs in
the 60s will occur west of the mountains, 40s/50s in the
mountains, and 60s/70s for the deserts.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Early Next Week)...
Another pleasant weekend is in store as a break in the troughing
pattern looks to occur. Most areas will be only a few degrees
below average with mostly sunny conditions. Model ensemble
clusters agree that another trough of low pressure from the north
will come into California by Monday. Uncertainty still remains on
how strong this trough will be, but we can guarantee another cool
down with breezy conditions during this time. We`ll have to see
how deep it goes to see if we will be able to see light showers
for the area. Early April may feature a continued troughing
pattern with cooler than normal weather.
&&
.AVIATION...
292100Z...Areas of BKN-OVC low clouds with bases 1500-3000 ft MSL as
SCT-NUM SHRA move south across the area. The main band of
precipitation has already moved across the Orange County and Inland
Empire areas, and will continue to move beyond San Diego County
after 22Z this afternoon. Brief drier period 30/00-06Z with only ISO
light showers and sprinkles. Activity increases and becomes more
widespread again after 30/06Z. Coastal mountain slopes will be
obscured in clouds/fog at times through Thursday.
Southwest to west winds will occur in the mountains and locally into
the deserts with gusts up to 50 knots through Thursday morning. MOD-
STG up/downdrafts likely over and NE/E of the mountains.
&&
.MARINE...
A storm will bring rain bands and gusty winds through Thursday. West
winds around 20 kt with gusts 25 kt late tonight through Thursday,
along with combined seas to 9 ft and steep waves. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible late tonight and Thursday morning,
and these could produce waterspouts.
&&
.BEACHES...
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight and Thursday at
the beaches with cloud-to-ground lightning possible. Thunderstorms
will be isolated if they occur.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM PDT Thursday for San Bernardino
County Mountains.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PDT Thursday for Riverside
County Mountains.
Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for San Diego County
Mountains.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM PDT
Thursday for San Diego County Mountains.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Apple and Lucerne
Valleys.
Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for Coachella Valley-San
Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM PDT Thursday for Coastal
Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Brotherton