Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/29/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
809 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will build across the region tonight
with clearing skies. A strong cold front will pass across
central NY and northeast PA Wednesday evening with snow squalls
and much colder air for Thursday. Milder air will return for
Friday and Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
755 PM Update...
The pop up cumulus clouds and isolated showers have dissipated
as the sun set, as expected. There are some mid and high level
clouds rolling in from the west now though, so sky cover was
increased overnight, now indicating partly cloudy conditions.
Overnight lows were adjusted slightly down, close to the latest
NBM numbers, in the mid-20s to lower 30s areawide.
Some minor tweaks to cloud cover on Wednesday as well; it
starts off sunny then some mid and high level clouds arrive by
early afternoon west of Binghamton, before lowering and
overspreading the area by late afternoon or early evening. Very
minor timing adjustments were made to the PoPs Wednesday
evening, especially late evening as it looks like the squall
line will keep rolling east-southeast right through NE PA and
the southern Catskills. Temperatures and weather type looked
excellent Wednesday evening, so no adjustments were needed with
this update. Although the setup does look quite favorable for a
long, linear snow squall Wednesday evening...it is interesting
to note the latest forecast snow squall parameter from the 18z
NAM is not all that impressive. It is only peaking around 1-2
units along the squall, and is only spotty. This may be due to a
lack of instability and/or relatively mild 925mb temperatures
as the squall begins. Irregardless, it appears the precip begins
as a few rain drops, before almost immediately changing over to
snow and/or graupel...then a period of heavy snow on the back
side of the squall. Most of the CAM guidance is showing the
squall lasting anywhere from 30-45 minutes at any one location.
Temperatures just ahead of the main squall look to be between
40-45, falling through the 30s during the squall then into the
mid to upper 20s by late evening. Snow amounts with the squall
are still looking like 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with maybe some
localized 2" amounts over the higher elevations. Valley locations
in NE PA and perhaps the southern tier of NY likely stay under
a half inch. HRRR is showing wind gusts of up to 40-45 kts with
the line as it moves through, especially across the Finger Lakes
and Syracuse area, with the gusts decreasing a bit as it heads
east- southeast and instability decreases after sunset.
Previous Discussion Below
Regional radars showing popcorn like light showers and sprinkles
even some flurries at times from insolation and residual
boundary layer moisture from yesterday`s system. Skies were
broken most areas except right downwind of Lake Ontario where
some lake shadowing was occurring. Extended POPs for sprinkles
and light showers a few more hours this afternoon.
By sunset, clouds will collapse with loss of diurnal heating and
all light precipitation will come to an end. A small ridge of
high pressure builds across the region overnight as skies become
mostly clear.
Wednesday will begin quiet as a strong upper level short wave
trough moves into the Great lakes region. This feature will push
a strong cold front across NY and PA Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Ahead of this front is southerly winds and mild
temperatures with highs reaching well up into the 40s and low
50s by afternoon. As this upper level wave moves farther east,
central NY and northeast PA will fall into the left exit region
of the upper level jet associated with this trough. This will
lead to cooling aloft ahead of the cold front and above the
milder air in the boundary layer. This is an ideal setup for a
squall line structure due to the instability and very strong
wind shear. Model CAPEs are running around 100-200 J/kG. Given
that temperatures will fall rapidly after the front passes
through, we will see rain showers gusty winds and even a rumble
thunder with a quick changeover to snow showers. Temperatures
will fall rapidly into the 20s. This will lead to potentially
dangerous road conditions after the front passes Wednesday
evening. We will continue to highlight this potential in the HWO
and send a one page briefing to our partners.
After this snow squall passes Wednesday night, 850 mb
temperatures fall to around -16C which will lead to lake effect
snow showers and we continue POPs through 12z Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Forecast...
NW flow remains across the area as a ridge of high pressure
slides eastward Thursday morning. Lake effect snow showers will
linger across the northern Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley
Thursday morning as 850mb temps will remain around -15C through
the morning. With the cold air mass overhead, morning temps will
struggle to get out of the 20s. The high will continue to build
in late morning/early afternoon, finally cutting off the lake
effect showers and allowing warmer air to move in from the SW.
Afternoon highs will still be cool, with most of NY in the mid
to upper 30s and NEPA in the upper 30s to low 40s.
High pressure will remain in control Thursday night into Friday
afternoon as it slowly slides eastward. By Friday morning, SW
flow returns, advecting in much warmer air behind a warm front
that pushes through early Friday afternoon. Rain showers will
accompany the front beginning late in the morning. Afternoon
highs will reach the upper 40s to low 50s, and will continue to
climb through the evening as strong WAA continues.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An active weather pattern is expected through the period as
several shortwave troughs move through the area.
Rain will continue Saturday as the low pressure system slowly
moves into the region form the Great Lakes, sliding NW of the
CWA. Isobars will tighten as the center of the low moves near
the area, bringing strong winds gusting 30 to 40kts across the
are Saturday morning into the afternoon. The western counties
will see the higher gusts, but a windy day is in store for the
area. A dry slow may make its way into the area Saturday
afternoon, given the current track of the center of the low,
which will allow for rain showers to lighten up during the
afternoon hours. WAA will continue through the morning and
afternoon, with high temperatures climbing to the low to mid 60s
Saturday afternoon. This warm air will not linger as a cold
front is expected to push through Saturday afternoon/evening.
Temps will quickly fall into the mid to low 30s by Saturday
evening with the remaining precip changing to snow into the
overnight hours. Saturday night lows will be 20-25 degrees
colder than the night before, with temps dropping to the low to
mid 20s across the region.
After this system, high pressure will build into the region for
Sunday. Monday and Tuesday will see chances for rain as a
shortwave enters the region. Timing and path of the system is
still unresolved so slight to low end chance PoPs are forecast
for the area. Temps should climb as the high slides eastward.
Temps Monday and Tues should rise into the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the night at all terminals.
There is a small chance that ELM could see some shallow fog as
dew point depressions this afternoon lessened as some showers
passed through but confidence was too low at this time to add
any restrictions to the TAFs at ELM.
Tomorrow, winds become gusty out of the SW for much of the day
with VFR conditions. In the late afternoon after 22Z, a strong
cold front with an accompanying squall line of heavy rain
showers transitioning to heavy snow quickly moves in from the
NW headed SE at a quick pace. Isolated lightning strikes are
possible along this line as well. There is still uncertainty
with the exact timing of the line so Prob30 lines have been
added. There will also be a wind shift that accompanies this
squall passage with winds going from WSW to NW. Worst conditions
will be IFR or worse with the squall line and likely last for
only about 20 or so minutes.
Outlook...
Wednesday morning...VFR expected.
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night...Restrictions
possible in rain and gusty snow showers.
Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday through Sunday...Restrictions possible in rain showers.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG/ES/JTC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
137 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2023
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...
Satellite imagery shows confluent WNW flow over our region,
downstream of a weak ridge axis over western MT and a deep low
along the Pacific coast. Backdoor cold front has pushed east winds
all the way to Livingston, and typical impacts from cold season
easterly flow can be expected over the next 24 hours. Enhanced
boundary layer moisture (aided by existing snow cover) should
result in upslope fog/stratus late tonight in our west, mainly
west of Billings. In fact, recent HRRR runs are starting to hint
at fog along the foothills. Any fog/stratus tomorrow morning will
likely be slow to erode (again per the snow cover and east winds).
Temps tomorrow will struggle to get above the lower 30s in our
western upslope areas, while our east (w/ much less snow cover)
should see upper 30s to mid 40s. Remarkably, our late March lower
elevation snow cover will be relatively slow to melt.
Mid level warm advection emerging from Pacific coast low will
overrun our existing cold air and may produce a little light snow
along our western mountains/foothills late this afternoon and
evening. Ascent is fairly weak so believe any light precip will
stay west of Billings, but a few flurries aren`t out of the
question for SW Yellowstone County this evening.
Wednesday morning should be dry, but by afternoon we will begin to
see impacts from Pacific flow as it moves inland, and flow aloft
becomes diffluent over our west. Thus, look for some light snow
showers in our west tomorrow afternoon, then a better chance
Wednesday night, especially over the orographically favored
Beartooth-Absarokas. Highest potential for precip w/ this next
wave begins Thursday. Below normal temps will continue thru the
period.
JKL
Thursday through Tuesday...
The upper low digging south along the western CONUS coastline will
eventually dart inland, moving northeast to eventually cross over
northern Wyoming. While yes, this will result in another round of
snow, multiple factor will result in it being much less drastic
than this past weekend, including less moisture content, being
more positively tilted, and moving across the area much quicker.
Enough moisture content still gives the lower elevations. The
mountains still have a 40-60% chance to receive over 4" of snow,
with its surrounding foothills have that same chance to only
receive over 2" of snow. The main impact potential from this
system is a freeze of wet surfaces Thursday night that could bring
about icy conditions for the Friday morning commute.
Past the end of the work week, some lackluster ridging returns to
briefly bring a rise in temperatures, with highs in the 50s
expected for the lower elevations, and mid to upper 40s for the
foothills. Although brief, this could cause a fast release of
rivers and bring a quick return of ice jam potential, but there is
only a small chance of this occurring on most streams.
Unsettled flow returns for early next week as a broad upper trough
looks to set up over southwestern Canada / Pacific Northwest. All
ensembles are in good agreement for this pattern that keeps
temperatures mild to slightly below normal, though it`s hard to
pinpoint any periods of heavy snow potential at this time.
Vertz
&&
.AVIATION...
Small area of stratus near K1KM should dissipate this afternoon,
w/ VFR prevailing across the region into this evening. Scattered
light snow showers will obscure the Beartooth-Absaroka and Crazy
Mountains at times late this afternoon & evening. There is again a
risk of fog/stratus along the eastern slopes of the western
mountains (i.e. west of KBIL) late tonight and Wednesday morning.
Places like KLVM & K1KM could see IFR or lower...but this is of
fairly low confidence at this time. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 018/035 022/037 024/044 031/050 032/043 028/041 027/038
11/E 27/S 50/B 01/B 33/S 45/S 55/S
LVM 019/036 025/038 023/045 029/047 029/040 024/039 023/037
32/J 38/S 41/B 03/O 65/S 56/S 54/S
HDN 014/040 018/038 021/042 024/051 026/044 024/043 024/039
10/B 16/S 61/B 00/B 33/O 45/O 65/S
MLS 013/043 024/040 022/041 027/055 033/047 027/044 025/038
00/U 03/S 41/B 00/B 21/N 23/O 44/S
4BQ 015/044 024/044 024/041 027/056 032/048 028/044 027/039
00/B 03/R 61/B 00/B 11/B 23/O 54/S
BHK 005/037 019/038 016/035 021/051 029/047 023/041 020/035
00/U 02/S 41/B 00/B 11/N 23/S 44/S
SHR 013/038 019/037 019/038 020/048 023/040 019/038 020/035
10/E 05/O 71/B 00/B 12/S 35/S 65/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
610 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023
This afternoon`s water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed
yesterday`s compact upper low moved off well northeast of western
Kansas, replaced by a fairly flat mid-upper tropospheric ridge. In
the lower troposphere, high pressure was moving across Kansas
resulting in light winds. The lower troposphere will continue to
modify with late day direct insolation, but afternoon temperatures
today will only top out in the lower 50s despite full sun. Tonight,
as the surface high continues to pull away, the MSLP gradient will
increase once again and so will the winds. We should see south-
southwest winds in the 10 to 15 mph range much of the night, perhaps
around 20 mph at times, and this will keep the boundary layer mixed
enough and nocturnal temperatures above freezing much of the night.
That said, we will still see lows bottom out in the 28 to 32F range
for most locations given the fairly cool start to the night.
On Wednesday, the upper level ridge over the Rockies will shift east
across the western Great Plains, and the increased southwest flow
across the Rockies will lead to further development of the leeside
trough. In addition, a shortwave trough moving southeast from the
northern Dakotas across the Upper Midwest will push a cold front
into northern Kansas. This cold front will push south fairly quickly
early on in the day Wednesday, likely reaching the Arkansas River
Valley by midday or early afternoon before slowing down. Afternoon
temperatures will likely range from the upper 40s/lower 50s along I-
70 to the lower 70s in the Red Hills along the Oklahoma border.
On Wednesday Night, the cold front will stall out and begin to lift
back north as a warm front as a surface low continues to develop
near Trinidad, CO. Surface winds south of the front will likely
remain 15 to 20 mph much of the night, and this will help keep
temperature from dropping much, and early Thursday morning lows
along/south of the Arkansas River, east of roughly Highway 83 are
forecast to be lower to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023
No significant changes in the overall forecast thinking this shift
regarding the Long Term period. Forecast remains on track regarding
Thursday`s warm, wind, and blowing dust. We decided to hold off on
issuing a High Wind Watch given low confidence in gusts 58+ mph.
That being said, we could very well see an hour or so of sustained
winds 40 mph or greater west of the dryline where deeper mixing is
expected. Future shifts will need to continue to assess this need
for a wind headline, as it will likely be close to criteria (either
instantaneous wind gust 58 mph or sustained 40 mph for one hour).
Regardless, blowing dust will likely reduce visibility to less than
4 miles over a broad area with local visibilities below one mile at
times over the most vulnerable agricultural areas well into the D4
Exceptional Drought region (particularly far southwest Kansas). The
main upper level trough and its significant potential vorticity
anomaly will be well to our southwest by early Thursday evening, so
we continue to expect areas east of the dryline to remain devoid of
deep, moist convection given the stout elevated mixed layer that is
likely to overspread the dryline. The latest global deterministic
models all agree on the 700mb cold front remaining well out over
central Colorado into central New Mexico 00Z Friday.
The main upper low will lift out of the Rockies Friday and will
undergo rapid occlusion as it lifts out across Nebraska. The very
southern end of the "comma head" precipitation shield may extend
down to I-70 Friday once the storm rapidly occludes, thus we will
have some Slight Chance POPs in this area, however significant
precipitation is still expected well north of even our northern
zones with this storm (as has been the case all winter into early
spring for the most part). We will see strong northwest winds during
the day Friday with the latest NBM showing 25 to 35 mph sustained
with gusts above 45 mph at times.
The storm will exit our southwest Kansas region Friday Night leaving
Saturday quite pleasant in its wake. High pressure at the surface on
Saturday will lead to much lighter wind with temperatures rebounding
just a bit back to the lower to mid 60s for highs.
Going further out in time into next week, a stormy pattern will
continue. The next storm will rip across the Rockies and Great
Plains Monday-Tuesday of next week, but none of the deterministic or
even ensembles are showing much hope for moisture with this storm.
There is increasing signal, however, of a better shot at something
more robust in the April 6-7 time frame, but this is so far out
(even beyond our official 7-day forecast) that we cannot really say
much more than that. Regardless, there is not much chance for
widespread accumulating precipitation across southwest Kansas until
at least around 6 April or so.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023
Low level wind shear overnight and timing of the cold front on
Wednesday will be the main focus this Tuesday evening.
BUFR soundings and 850mb winds from the CAMS all indicate 45 to 50
knot winds developing after 06z Wednesday. These stronger winds
will then mix down to the surface early Wednesday which will
result in a south southwest winds increasing into the 15 to 20
knot range between 15z and 18z Wednesday. These gusty winds will
occur ahead of a cold front which will move into southwest Kansas
after 12z Wednesday. Currently it appears that this boundary will
cross the Hays and Garden City areas between 15z and 18z
Wednesday. This boundary will move to near Dodge City and Liberal
towards 21z Wednesday. As this cold front approaches during the
day the gusty south winds decrease. Following the frontal passage
the winds will become north northeast at 10 to 15 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 32 66 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 30 61 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 35 71 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 32 71 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 29 54 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
P28 30 69 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
942 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023
Not much change in expectations for Wednesday morning`s quick
burst of snow. Like the 12Z HREF member models, the recent several
runs of the HRRR have been consistent with the time of arrival of
the cold front and snow. Any impacts including slick spots on
roads are likely to be focused in west-central Michigan,
especially north of Muskegon and Grand Rapids... due to combining
the onset of snow earlier in the morning, slightly cooler
temperatures, and slightly more precipitation output from the last
several runs of the HRRR. As this tracks farther southeast into
late morning, there may be a little rain at the onset before a
change to snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023
- Band of snow showers to cross the CWA Wednesday morning
An arctic cold front is progged to drop southeast through the CWA
Wednesday morning. Models are in general agreement on the timing
and strength of this feature. While surface temperatures may dip
to near or just below freezing tonight...they are forecast to
climb just above freezing prior to the snow showers arrival. This
may limit the impacts. Bufkit overviews from various models show
the moisture to be narrow and through the DGZ. So this looks like
a high confidence event...lasting perhaps and hour or so. Most
locations will end up with less than an inch. However localized
impacts are possible as the roads may be temporarily coated
tomorrow morning.
- Risk for heavy rain and high winds for Friday into early
Saturday...could change to snow Saturday morning north
A strong low level jet arrives Thursday night and remains in the
region into Friday night. This feature draws up abundant moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico. PWAT values are progged to climb to over
200 percent of normal. Aloft upper level divergence persist
Thursday night through Friday. Elevated instability moves in
Friday and pulls off to the east late Friday night/early Saturday.
Thus the pattern will be favorable for multiple rounds of rain
some of which will be heavy at times. Some uncertainty exists with
the placement of the axis of heaviest precipitation but
confidence is fairly high for more than an inch for most places.
Ensemble 24 hr qpf forecasts from the GFS would support less than
an inch of rain as that models members generally keep the axis of
highest QPF well north of the CWA. The combination of instability
and stronger deep layer shear could support a few organized
storms with hail and gusty winds being the main risks mainly
later Friday into Friday night.
The past few runs of the ECMWF have been showing accumulating
snow Saturday for northern parts of our CWA...especially around
Ludington and possibly Baldwin. The GFS and Canadian generally do
not show this happening in our CWA so confidence on seeing
impactful snow for northern parts of the CWA is low. This will be
something we need to monitor closely in the coming days.
It looks windy Friday into Saturday. From GFS Bufkit the mixing
heights are reaching into the 30 to 40 knot winds for most
locations Saturday...with possibly higher values for southern and
lakeshore zones. Thus impacts from the wind may occur then.
- Another Spring storm for Tuesday
Models are in general agreement in tracking another potent mid
level wave into the Great Lakes region Tuesday. This time the
system will be tracking a little further north which will raise
the risk for strong/severe storms. The winds at 500 mb from the
models are shown to top 120 knots which is very anomalous. Deep
layer shear...instability and lift look favorable for a round of
stronger convection. This system is still far off but certainly
one we will need to monitor closely.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 806 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023
VFR is expected through the night with light winds from the
southwest. Starting around 10Z near Ludington/LDM, snow associated
with a cold front will likely drop visibility to IFR for an hour
or two at each location as it progresses southeast, reaching
Jackson/JXN by approximately 16Z. Winds from the WNW will be
gusty both with and after this snow.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023
The winds and waves will increase tonight into Wednesday as an
arctic front tracks through the zones. We will maintain the small
craft advisory. We are looking at a probable gale event for
Saturday...and a high end small craft event prior to that as the
deep low pressure system tracks through the region.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CAS
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...MJS