Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/23/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
925 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Models continue to suggest areas of stratus expanding overnight,
along with some potential for fog. Starting to see signs of this
on satellite over the past hour or so. Will also be watching snow
chances across the far southwest CWA, which the HRRR is still
suggesting after 09Z may be the best bet for any light snow with
minor accums down that way. May make some adjustments to POPs to
hold off chances a bit longer and start them closer to 09Z/10Z.
Otherwise, overnight lows are tricky and will largely depend on
cloud cover. Could be several degrees off wherever clouds decide
to hold in longer.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Though there are some radar returns across south central SD this
afternoon, most of it seems to be from clouds rather than precip
reaching the ground. Stratus across the north, under sfc high
pressure, is slowly shifting/eroding this afternoon. There may be a
few hours of scattered sunshine before stratus and/or fog develops
tonight. The uncertainty regarding cloud cover has also led to lower
confidence in overnight low temperatures. Cloud cover could keep
lows in the teens to lower 20s. Any breaks in the clouds, however,
would lead to a quick free fall given the very light winds and temps
could fall into the single digits, especially across the north where
there is fresh snow.
Models continue the southward trend for any snow across south
central SD. Accumulating snow of less than half an inch remains
possible, mainly south of Pierre, late tonight into early Thursday
morning. This is mostly due to the dry air entrainment from the sfc
high and that the best shortwave forcing remains over NE and
northern IA.
Temperatures will remain well below average by 15 to 20 degrees on
Thursday. Morning stratus/fog will keep any warming from occurring
especially given the lack of mixing or thermal advection. With some
mild waa slated for Thursday night, fog may be more likely.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Temperature trends through the extended period look to exhibit a
roller coaster type pattern as a relatively dry trend sets up across
the forecast area. Sfc high pressure will shift east of the region
on Friday helping to draw in a bit of a warmer air mass into the
area. A low level warm air advection pattern on Friday will lead to
relatively mild temps. Warmest readings will be across our southwest
zones where little to no snow cover means daytime readings around 50
degrees in some locales. The mid level flow pattern appears to take
on more of that split flow`ish type look during the course of the
weekend into next week. We may see a couple of weak waves traverse
the region over the weekend. One may kick out a little light snow
west river the first half of the weekend, but it appears now the
system is minor in nature. A cold front is progged to push through
sometime the latter half of the weekend with high pressure building
in behind. A cooler air mass once again will set our temperatures
back Sunday into Monday. Should see some modification by late in the
period as this high shifts east of our area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Still some MVFR CIGs affecting KATY this evening. Expect an
increase in areal coverage of MVFR/IFR CIGs across the region as
the night progresses. Also, cannot rule out some BR towards
morning with MVFR/IFR VSBY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...TMT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
138 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Morning visible satellite showed clear skies in the western Oklahoma
Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle, and dense cirrus
covering the rest of the area.
The main concerns for today are wind in the northwest and fire
weather potential for the entire area. A jet streak is moving over
the Colorado Rockies this afternoon, intensifying lee cyclogenesis
in eastern Colorado. 700mb winds will also strengthen, especially in
the northwest. Forecast soundings are showing that the entire area
should be able to mix into the 700mb to 600mb layer, so tapping into
the 700mb winds shouldn`t be an issue. Furthermore, Guidance didn`t
handle the clouds well in the northwest this morning, showing clouds
when there weren`t any. Latest RAP and HRRR are showing the
northwest could even mix into the 600mb to 550mb layer. This could
be a bit overdone, nevertheless deep mixing provides increased
concern for a higher wind scenario, with gusts up to or exceeding 60
mph for a 3 to 4 hour window in the afternoon. The stronger daytime
heating scenario would also lower RH values, increasing fire weather
concerns. Elsewhere in the Panhandles, the thick clouds should keep
the winds and fire weather concerns down but non-negligible.
A very weak Pacific front, that only provides about 5 deg C H85
cooling, will move through the area from the west this evening, and
a cold front will move through a part of the northeastern Panhandles
tomorrow morning before stalling out. The area should be in the
right entrance region of the jet streak which will support weak low
development in the vicinity in the afternoon. As the low moves east
tomorrow evening, a stalled backdoor front in the northeast
Panhandles will eventually be overcome by stronger front from the
west that will push everything east. There will be a chance for
showers primarily in the east near the backdoor front as S/WV passes
through the area. Currently 40-50% probabilities for rain are shown
in the east.
Vanden Bosch/Gittinger
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Relatively uneventful weather - with a couple potential exceptions -
and temperatures at least a bit below average for late March look to
dominate the long term.
Friday into Saturday, broad longwave trough slowly advances eastward
over the Panhandles. A cold front, the first in a series of many,
may sneak into the CWA Friday. A bit of low level moisture may pool
behind this front, perhaps leading to a bit of light rain as the
upper trough advances. That said, general trend in guidance has been
for dry southwesterly flow at 850mb to keep favorable moisture out
of all but our far north and northeast. Have therefore trended PoPs
downward Friday and Friday night. By Saturday, lack of moisture at
700/850mb should lead to no chance for precipitation.
For the remainder of the forecast, persistent west-southwesterly
flow aloft should lead to generally little precipitation given
700/850mb winds will be oriented off the higher terrain and tracing
back to the Mojave Desert virtually the entire time. Multiple
disturbances ejecting over the central and northern Plains should
lead to multiple weak cold fronts entering the forecast area, with
the aforementioned issues with moisture precluding including more
than a slight chance for precipitation. A model run of note is the
current operational GFS which brings enough precip for more than a
trace of snow to the northern Panhandles. Based on ensemble output
and other operational guidance, have elected to leave this out
entirely for now. But, given overall pattern, will have to continue
to monitor this period and really the entire long term forecast
as one cannot totally rule out a similar wave impacting the
northern Panhandles at some point.
Ferguson
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
VFR conditions are expected through this period. Have only
included blowing dust in the KDHT TAF as that`s where confidence is
highest, but it will also be possible at KAMA and KDHT. Winds will
gradually weaken after 8 PM.
Vanden Bosch/Gittinger
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 45 72 37 62 / 0 10 30 10
Beaver OK 44 66 34 54 / 0 10 50 40
Boise City OK 40 63 32 55 / 0 10 20 20
Borger TX 46 74 37 62 / 0 10 30 20
Boys Ranch TX 43 69 35 62 / 0 10 20 10
Canyon TX 44 73 37 63 / 0 10 20 10
Clarendon TX 49 76 42 65 / 0 10 30 10
Dalhart TX 41 65 32 58 / 0 10 20 20
Guymon OK 42 66 33 55 / 0 10 40 30
Hereford TX 42 73 35 63 / 0 10 20 0
Lipscomb TX 46 71 36 59 / 0 10 40 30
Pampa TX 47 73 38 61 / 0 10 40 20
Shamrock TX 50 76 42 65 / 0 10 40 20
Wellington TX 50 78 44 67 / 0 10 40 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002-003-007-011.
OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...52
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
905 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2023
.UPDATE...
Precipitation associated with shortwave moving across WY is almost
entirely south of our cwa this evening. There could be a few light
snow showers over our southern mountains, while skies are mostly
clear elsewhere on the MT side. Have adjusted pop/wx/sky grids to
show the more southerly location of light snow and clouds. There
is a risk of fog in our east tonight, and in fact, Baker is
already reporting a visibility of 6-7 miles. HRRR is suggestive of
localized fog from Miles City to Alzada eastward and northward
later tonight, but it appears we will see some fog impacts before
then. Much greater fog coverage will be across the high-line, but
nonetheless have added patchy fog to our east tonight thru 15z
Thursday. Low temps tonight will reach the teens to lower 20s most
places...and perhaps single digits at Baker. JKL
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday night...
Large open trough over Nevada/Calif ejecting some energy through
central Rockies/Wyoming. Push north has been weak and only minor
affects for the southern border of our CWA expected through
evening. Some light snow in the Big Horns and nearby foothills
mainly south of Sheridan. The shortwave energy tracks into South
Dakota this evening and may see a glancing blow to the SE corner
of MT (Alzada), but otherwise we should be mostly dry overnight
with lows ranging from single digits and teens in the east to
mainly 20s elsewhere.
Thursday should be a relatively mild day as high pressure aloft
dominates our overall pattern. Highs will be in the 40s to lower
50s. A weather system pushing into the Pacific NW will back our
mid level winds to the SW during the day and may result in
scattered snow showers over our western mountains
(Absaroka/Beartooths) into Thursday night. Lows Thursday night
will be in the teens east to near 30 west.
Hydrology...Its Ice Jam season! Ongoing ice jams continue along
the Powder River near Broadus where fields have been flooded. Ice
jamming is being monitored near Miles City in Custer County as
well. Those living near rivers or streams should pay close
attention to the state of the ice over the next week or two. Move
livestock and equipment to safe areas. Please check our webpage
at weather.gov/billings for any flood watches or warnings, the
latest Hydrologic Outlook, and additional information about ice
jams. BT
Friday through Wednesday...
Snow inbound to end the work and start the weekend, in what
continues to be a never-ending period of off and on snow for
southern MT and northern WY.
SYNOPSIS | A broad upper trough is in place for much of the
western CONUS for the second half of this week. The play maker is
a wave and lowering heights coming down the coastline and
crossing the Pacific Northwest, in what looks to develop into an
upper low. Current placement of a cutoff- upper low from the main
wave and a surge of moisture looks to occur from northwest WY
through central, WY, which is a prime placement to bring heavy
snow potential to our foothill locations, and northwest to
northeast slopes. Ample upslope, upper jet divergence, and bands
of mid- level frontogenesis are all in play for this event to
bring snow potential to the area.
CONFIDENCE | There is a high chance for impactful snow amounts to
occur in the Beartooth and Bighorn foothills, essentially at and
south of I-90 from Livingston through Sheridan, WY. Current NBM
guidance gives Livingston a 55% chance to see over 2" of snow,
and Sheridan an 82% chance, with most ensemble means matching up
with this. However, higher-resolution deterministic models show-
case a higher potential for heavy snow to occur. The GEFS and GFS
also contain a band a 700mb frontogenesis that wants to set-up in
southeast MT and provide ascent to bring them a shot of snow.
While the chance of that occurring is small (as it`s not shown in
other ensembles yet), it should not be ruled out.
IMPACTS | There is a high chance for the Friday evening and
Saturday morning commutes to see winter driving conditions. There
is even a 20% chance for precip to fall as rain before switching
to snow, which could result in ice surfaces then covered by snow.
I-90 is the main road with concerns, but all highs alongside and
south of it will be impacted as well. There is also a small chance
for US-212 to see snow and slick roads if that frontogenesis band
pans out.
BEYOND SATURDAY | Not much else to highlight going into early next
week. Temperatures will stay below 10-15 degrees below normal, and
there is a small chance for off and on light snow. So no drastic
warm-up on the horizon.
Vertz
&&
.AVIATION...
Overall VFR conditions will prevail. However, there could be some
MVFR to IFR conditions could develop around KBHK and KMLS as there
is a chance for some patchy fog to develop. This will mostly be
limited to the river valleys. Otherwise, expect some mountain
obscurations and some snow showers, mainly near the Bighorn
Mountains. Reimer
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 023/052 030/049 029/036 026/038 020/035 019/042 023/042
00/U 05/R 54/S 44/S 31/E 11/B 22/S
LVM 017/048 028/040 023/034 021/034 019/036 020/041 021/042
00/B 27/S 54/S 34/S 21/B 12/S 22/S
HDN 017/052 024/049 025/037 022/039 018/037 014/044 018/045
00/U 04/R 64/S 44/S 31/E 11/B 22/S
MLS 015/047 025/049 025/036 024/037 020/033 020/043 021/042
00/U 01/B 22/S 12/S 11/E 00/B 11/B
4BQ 018/046 025/050 027/036 024/037 023/035 019/045 023/044
00/B 01/B 53/S 22/S 21/E 00/B 12/S
BHK 009/039 019/044 020/031 016/033 013/029 013/038 018/039
00/B 00/U 22/S 11/E 11/E 00/B 11/B
SHR 014/044 018/042 020/031 015/032 013/031 011/038 015/039
21/B 04/S 86/S 44/S 21/B 01/B 23/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
650 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Clouds under a rather strong inversion per 12z KDVN sounding kept
temperatures a few degrees warmer today. Temperatures at 2 pm
were in the upper 40s for most locations. Latest GOES visible
satellite shows some thinning of the low stratus, as well as some
convective clouds over north central IL. Radar mosaics show some
scattered showers tracking east over northern IL. Lastly, 18z MSAS
analysis and surface observations show warm front stretching from
near Kansas City through northern MO, to near Springfield IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Forecast focus is on storm chances tonight.
Scattered showers will be possible this afternoon and evening
across southeast IA, northeast MO, and west central IL. Not
anticipating much QPF with this. Attention then turns to tonight
where another 40kt LLJ, WAA, and convergence along an elevated
boundary brings showers and thunderstorms to portions of the
area primarily after midnight. The latest RAP shows a strong
850mb theta-e gradient laying out from northwest MO into northwest
IL with forecast soundings continuing to show MUCAPES over 1000
J/kg and steep mid level lapse rates. The 12z HREF and CAMs show
scattered storms capable of producing small hail and perhaps a few
close to quarter size, focused south of I-80 and agree that this
is the area most at risk. A Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe storms was maintained today by the Storm Prediction Center
for a few isolated severe storms. This activity will quickly
shift east out of the area before sunrise Thursday, as a cold
front moves through. Rain amounts around an inch will be possible
in areas that see repeated storms. Further north, more stratiform
rain will be possible, with most areas receiving less than a
quarter of an inch.
In addition, a rain-snow mix is also possible across areas north
of highway 20 tonight. No accumulation is expected. Overnight
lows, will be in the low 30s north, to the lower 40s in west
central IL.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Key Messages:
1. Active pattern continues into the weekend, with increasing
chances of rain changing to a heavy wet snow late Friday night into
Saturday. Some light accumulations may be possible north of highway
30.
2. Additional chances of precipitation will be possible Sunday night
and late next week, with near normal temperatures.
Thursday night-Saturday...an upper level trough will track east
into the Central Plains, through the mid Mississippi valley, and
into the Great Lakes region. Latest 12z models have continued to
shift slightly to the west with their surface low tracks resulting
in greater chances of a deformation band of precipitation to
affect generally the eastern half of the CWA. Thermal profiles
and strong dynamic cooling suggest a changeover to snow is
possible late Thursday night into Friday. Latest NBM probabilities
of 1" of snow are highest (20-40%) along and north of highway 30,
with higher probs in southern WI. With marginal surface/road
temps and the time of year, it will take very strong lift and
heavy precipitation falling to overwhelm the warm ground to get
any slushy accumulations. This will be possible with this system. Storm
track, timing, and strength will be key to watch in later
forecasts as this will dictate areas that may have impact. Gusty
north winds will also accompany this storm as it deepens into the
Great Lakes, with occasional gusts between 30-40 mph. Still a lot
of uncertainty on the details and we`ll have to monitor this
system closely for the potential for a band of heavy wet snow
somewhere in the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Saturday night On...another shortwave will track across the
Plains Sunday night into Monday bringing more precip chances to
the area and yes even some more snow chances. Confidence remains
low on any impacts, with large model discrepancies in timing and
strength of system. Highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s and
low 30s are forecast. A stronger wave will move through just
beyond the 7 day forecast, with warmer temps possible.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
MVFR to IFR cigs will remain through much of the night, with some
localized areas of LIFR cigs, especially at BRL. Rain and
thunderstorms will work their way into the area around 03z and
will persist on and off through the night. Some storms may have
hail, with a slight chance for some to see large hail. The
stronger showers and storms may lead to some brief reductions in
visibility. Around 10-12z, we will start to see these showers and
storms move out of the area, leaving us cloudy through the
remainder of the day. Cigs will slowly improve after 18z
Thursday.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gross
SHORT TERM...Gross
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...Gunkel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
952 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Stratus clouds continue to move south and eastward, leaving skies
across the CWA mostly clear. Several spots have already dropped
into the low single digits, so adjusted temps down just a bit.
There is some fog starting to develop over the Harvey area, but
from web cams so far it seems pretty patchy. Still a lot of
variation in exactly how fog and stratus behave overnight, but
think there will be at least some return of clouds back into some
portions of our forecast area, so did not drop temps quite as low
as some of the models such as the HRRR and RAP show.
UPDATE Issued at 706 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Adjusted sky cover grids, as the western edge of the stratus
continues to dissipate and no models are handling it very well.
Will continue to keep an eye on clearing trends as the evening
goes on, there is a lot of uncertainty if stratus will fill back
in and/or we get fog, or if we will remain clear throughout the
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Key Messages
- There could be some fog tonight, depending on cloud trends and
wind
- Quiet weather looks to prevail with below normal temperatures
Starting with current conditions, the surface low has pushed into
southern Ontario, with high pressure over the central Dakotas.
Between the 2, there was still a decent surface pressure gradient,
resulting in 10 to 20 mph northwest winds. This was just enough to
cause a little drifting snow across roads, which could result in
a few slippery spots going into tonight. These winds are expected
to become light by mid evening. Cloud cover could be a little
tricky tonight. It has been clearing across eastern North Dakota,
while it has been taking longer east of the Red River. If these
clearing trends continue and hold overnight, there could be some
patchy fog. However, confidence in this potential remains low, so
will leave out for now. If it remains clear, temperatures could
also bottom out more than currently anticipated (with the fresh
snow). The latest HRRR shows some below zero readings possible.
Otherwise the rest of the period looks quiet, with highs remaining
below normal.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
The long term period is characterized by quiet weather and below
average temperatures for eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota.
Temperatures according to the EFI are well below normal in both Max
and Min temperatures. Highs will remain in the 20s and 30s, possibly
dipping into the upper teens over the weekend.
There is a low chance of precipitation coming through the area at
any point in the long term according to guidance, but the upper
level zonal flow does support the possibility for fast moving
systems. If we do get any disturbances, they most likely will be
transient and only produce light precipitation across the area.
There is significant uncertainty in the ensembles regarding the
possibility of UL waves into next week. The next chance for
precipitation looks to be on Wednesday, but it looks to be slight
right now. We`ll continue to monitor as we get closer in time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Stratus has dissipated at all sites except KBJI, and that one
should see a return to VFR from MVFR in a few hours. There is a
lot of uncertainty if stratus will fill back in, if we will get
fog development, or if skies will remain clear. None of the models
are handling current conditions very well and trust in their
output is low. There is some consensus with the short range
guidance on bringing some MVFR then IFR stratus back in the KDVL
area, so included that in the TAFs. Kept the rest of the airports
VFR throughout the night for now. Winds will become light and
variable, so patchy fog is not out of the question, but think
higher chances will be to our south and west directly under the
surface high. All sites should return to VFR by tomorrow morning,
with winds eventually picking up out of the south at around 10
kts.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...JR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
829 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across central
Illinois late this evening into the overnight hours. While widespread
severe weather is not expected, a few of the cells north of the
I-70 corridor could produce hail. Low temperatures will range from
the lower 40s west of the Illinois River...to the middle 50s south
of I-72.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
0115z/815pm regional radar mosaic is showing scattered showers and
thunderstorms develeloping across northern Missouri and far
southern Iowa on the nose of a developing nocturnal low-level
jet. This activity is expected to grow in converage and track
eastward across the northern half of the KILX CWA over the next
several hours. While the boundary layer remains stable, latest SPC
mesoanalysis shows MUCAPEs of 500-1000J/kg poised upstream across
northern Missouri. This elevated instability will feed the
increasing convection across the area late this evening, with some
of the storms potentially producing hail as they take advantage of
steep mid-level lapse rates already seen on the 00z KILX upper air
sounding. HRRR has been consistently showing the showers/storms
blossoming along a Quincy to Bloomington corridor between 02z/9pm
and 03z/10pm...with the activity quickly pushing E/NE into Indiana
overnight. While scattered showers will persist through the entire
night into Thursday morning as a cold front slowly settles
southward through the region, think the greatest probability of
hail will be between 03z/10pm and 08z/2am.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
This afternoon`s surface analysis reveals a southeasterly pressure
gradient across the ILX forecast area, yielding southerly flow. A
surface trough currently located across north central MO into
northern portions of the ILX forecast area will remain nearly
stationary for the next several hours, with a southward advancing
cold front dislodging the surface trough sometime after midnight.
Overnight, the airmass north of the front will feature a stable
near-surface layer, but with MUCAPE from 100-500 J/kg and
plentiful southwesterly shear roughly parallel to the boundary we
anticipate a threat of thunderstorms in a persistent warm
advection regime owing to the overnight intensification of the low
level jet. South of the front, the near surface air will be much
warmer and more humid, but forecast soundings still feature a near
isothermal layer at the surface. As such, any convection
near/south of the boundary is expected to remain elevated as well,
with isolated large hail the primary threat. However, we`ll need
to monitor for any storms which could manage to become rooted in a
warm/humid boundary layer for potential severe wind gusts with
such strong shear.
Coverage of convection/showers is forecast to decrease by late
morning or so on Thursday as the low level jet weakens.
Following that point, precipitation should largely hold off until
late afternoon/early evening with the cold front continuing to
move southward during the day, reaching a position south of I-70
by late afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
The main notable concern in the long term is the threat of heavy
rainfall mainly south of I-70 in the Thursday night - Friday night
time frame.
With a persistent southwesterly low level jet Thursday night
advecting moisture over the southward-moving cold frontal
boundary, lift from warm advection aloft will lead to several
hours of rain. As flow aloft will be nearly parallel to the
boundary, some could see substantial rainfall totals, especially
south of I-70. The HREF LPMM QPF has 1" - 1.75" totals south of
I-70 by 7 am Friday, with rain perhaps extending a bit later into
the morning. 90th percentile HREF plots show that 3.5" amounts
are a reasonable upper bound for this first round. CAMs show a
couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE near the cold frontal boundary in
the evening on Thursday south of I-70, so we`ll need to monitor
for an elevated hail threat as well.
The next notable round of rainfall comes on Friday
afternoon/evening as the main trough heads eastward, along with
its accompanying surface low. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals
some differences regarding this round, with around 75% of
ensemble members in clusters with a shallower and faster-moving
trough, and less precipitation. These clusters average a little
over an inch with this second wave. 25% of members are in a
deeper, slower-moving cluster averaging around 1.75-2" with the
second round.
A Flood Watch has been issued for our counties south of I-70 from
Thursday evening through late Friday night to account for the
threat of excessive runoff, river rises, and flooding of low water
crossings.
Expect increased winds on Saturday associated with the eastward
moving surface low, with some gusts approaching 40 mph east of
I-55. Additional light rain is forecast with an eastward moving
trough on Sunday, with a couple of dry days with near normal high
temperatures anticipated afterward.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
2345z/645pm radar imagery is beginning to show scattered shower
development from KUIN northeastward to KBMI. Showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms will become more widespread within this
corridor over the next few hours as an upper disturbance
approaches from the west. Based on radar trends and latest
HRRR/RAP forecasts, have added predominant showers with VCTS at
all terminals between 03z and 04z. It appears the main area of
showers/storms will shift eastward into Indiana overnight, so have
dropped back to just VCSH after 07z-08z. Ceilings will remain IFR
through the entire 00z TAF period, with perhaps some improvement
to MVFR at KPIA late in the period. Winds will initially be S/SE,
then will shift to N/NE late tonight into Thursday morning as a
cold front sags through the area. Models continue to depict a
strong low-level jet developing in advance of the front tonight,
so have included low-level wind shear at the I-72 terminals
accordingly.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday night for
ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...AAT
LONG TERM...AAT
AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1021 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Key Messages:
- Snow and a wintry mix are expected across the Sandhills this
evening through tomorrow morning. A Winter Weather Advisory remains
in effect for northern Nebraska due to light snow accumulations.
- A series of other systems brings additional precipitation chances
Friday through Monday.
- Temperatures through the forecast period will be generally below
normal.
Synopsis:
Nebraska lies in southwest flow aloft today in a split pattern as
the southern jet intensifies over the Missouri Valley while a trough
digs into the Upper Mississippi Valley. A rather stout mid-level
wave is ejecting off the northern Rockies and providing increased
frontogenesis over the Sandhills. Toward the surface, the state is
squeezed between a northern Plains high and a central/southern
Plains developing low. Northerly low level winds and cloud cover are
keeping afternoon temps (as of 20z) in the 30s across the northern
Sandhills, while east/southeast winds and filtered sunshine pushed
southwest Nebraska to around 50F.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Just sent out an update and added Thomas, Hooker, Grant, Garden
and Arthur counties to the winter weather advisory. Radar returns
indicate a nice band of moderate to heavy snow extending from
Garden county, east northeast into Arthur, Hooker and Thomas
counties. Thedford recently fell off to a half a mile of
visibility with moderate snow. Highway cameras also have indicated
some brief periods of moderate to heavy snow. I also did increase
snow accumulations somewhat along this corridor. This is supported
by the latest HRRR soln which generates QPF`s around a quarter
inch within this band. Even with an 8 to 1 or 10 to 1 ratio, we
could see a quick 2+ inches of snow within this band.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
This evening and tonight... The large upper ridge centered over the
Southeast US pulls east a bit, placing western Nebraska more in the
influence of the western waves. The H3 jet remarkably strengthens
over the forecast area as shown by a streak increasing from 110 kts
this evening to 150 kts by daybreak. The H5-7 forcing maxes out
around 06z and pushes east toward dawn. Isentropic analysis
indicates broad upglide over the entire CWA (mainly 285-290K), while
the easterly low level flow pulls additional moisture into the area.
The extra moisture combined with forcing should result in a band of
precipitation across the central Sandhills into north central Neb
and perhaps more scattered activity to the south. Adjusted PoP based
on the newer HREF, NAMnest, and HRRR suites. P-type is a little
tricky with this system due to the sharp temperature gradient and
possibly some convective features sneaking into central Neb. Along
and north of the main band, the colder air mass should keep precip
as mostly snow. Near and south, initially warm surface temps and
later an elevated warm nose, introduces the potential for sleet and
freezing rain. Some solutions also hint at marginal instability in
central Nebraska. SLR`s range from 3-7:1 south of Hwy 92 to 7-10:1
around the Hwy 2 corridor to 10-13:1 across the north. The main band
will also be a quick-hitter with the bulk of the accumulation
occurring in about six hours, centered around 06z. With all that in
mind, snow amounts should generally line up in the 1-3" range in the
existing Advisory area (northern tier of counties). Can`t rule out
higher amounts around O`Neill and points east. As for icing,
potential exists for a light glaze in Custer County and adjacent
areas. Did not expand the advisory farther south due to lower
confidence in coverage/potential of precip with the more scattered
nature. Min temps should range from the lower 20s in the north to
mid 20s in the southwest.
Thursday and Thu night... Other than a few remnant snow showers
across far northern Neb during the morning from leftover mid-level
forcing, most of the CWA will have a lull in the activity during the
day. Temperatures will be fairly similar to today`s as the surface
high settles more onto the northern Plains. Western Nebraska will be
placed more in the southerly return flow and drier air, while north
central will stay chilly in the northerly H85 flow and extended
cloud cover. Forecast values range from the mid 30s to the lower
50s. Later in the evening, yet another low spins up on the Colorado
Plains. Low level flow switches to easterly/upslope, and an
accompanying weak H7 low provides increased forcing in the mid
levels. Expanded schc-chc PoP across southwest Neb to account for
scattered rain or rain/snow showers.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
An active wave pattern will keep conditions unsettled across the
central Plains to round out this week and to start next week.
Several mid/upper level troughs and a couple surface fronts with all
varying intensity will cross Nebraska. Kept nearly consistent low
end PoP from Friday to Monday, although in all likelihood, any
precip will be periodic. Temperatures will also remain near or below
normal during this period, with the mildest conditions on Friday
(highs near 50F) and coolest Sunday and Monday (highs in the 30s
north and 40s south).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
The main aviation concern will be the arrival of precipitation
across the region by late evening. Snow will be primarily across the
north impacting KVTN while rain will impact KLBF. Both terminals
could see reductions in visibility due to falling snow and rain.
Conditions improve Thursday morning as precipitation comes to an
end, however, ceilings will remain below 3000 feet through the rest
of Thursday afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Thursday for
NEZ004>010-022>025-035-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Buttler
SYNOPSIS...Snively
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Kulik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
921 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023
.DISCUSSION...
Current-Thursday...Surface high pressure continues to push seaward
from the mid Atlc coast with associated ridge axis extending back
toward central/north-central FL. Diurnal clouds have mostly
dissipated or moved into WCFL this evening. Expect MClear conditions
overnight and MSunny skies on Thu. Low confidence for fog
development, but local HRRR does try to develop some patchy fog
north/west of I-4 toward sunrise Thu morning. Will closely monitor,
though have not added to grids/zones. ESE/SE winds will diminish
after sunset this evening and pick back up for Thu with similar
speeds as today and directional component. Overnight mins in the M-
U50s interior and L60s along the coast, except for some M60s along
the immediate St. Lucie/Martin coasts. Highs on Thu U70s to near 80F
along the coast and L-M80s inland; possibly U80s well into the
interior and along the Kissimmee River.
&&
.MARINE...Overnight-Thu...Stubborn and persistent northeast long
period swell continues to keep wave heights higher than model
guidance. Have kept Cautionary Statements ongoing across offshore
Brevard and Treasure Coast waters as seas build to 6 ft here and 3-5
ft elsewhere. Seas on Thu forecast 3-5 ft areawide (highest Gulf
Stream). ESE/SE winds around 15 kts offshore and 10-12 kts near
shore. Conditions mostly dry.
&&
.AVIATION...Generally VFR thru the period. Local HRRR trying to
suggest some patchy fog north/west of I-4 toward sunrise. Confidence
low here. ESE/SE winds will fall to light again this evening. Expect
similar directional component for winds on Thu with speeds 6-10 kts
interior/Volusia coast and 10-15 kts along the Space/Treasure
coasts. MClear to PCloudy skies with dry conditions.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Sedlock/Leahy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1015 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023
The forecast remains largely on track. The last several HRRR
cycles have been very consistent with the placement of dense fog
across the Florida Panhandle and into Southeast Alabama. The
overall pattern is supportive of widespread dense fog in this area
as moisture return has increased throughout the day. Even though
satellite imagery does not yet show much fog development, this
should rapidly change in the next couple of hours. As a result, a
dense fog advisory has been issued for areas most likely to
experience dense fog overnight.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Strong high pressure will persist through Friday, supporting
rain-free weather and well above normal temperatures. A cold front
will approach southeast Alabama and west-central Georgia on
Saturday, but then it will weaken and get hung up before entering
Florida, lingering over the Southeast States until Monday. A
stronger front will push all the way through the tri-state region
around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023
The main story tonight will be the fog potential as warmer, more
moisture-rich air moves into the area. It looks like the best shot
at fog will generally be from Dothan to Tallahassee southwestward.
Some of this fog could be locally dense. Remember, if you encounter
fog while driving: slow down, use low-beam headlights, and increase
your following distance from other vehicles. Lows will be in the 50s.
The fog and low clouds will gradually dissipate through the morning,
leaving us with mainly sunny skies in the afternoon. Temperatures
will respond to the sunshine and the strong upper-level ridging
we`ll have on top of us. Highs should reach the middle 80s along and
east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers with upper 70s to lower
80s west. The caveat to this forecast is if fog and/or low stratus
hang around for longer in the morning (similar to today in southeast
Alabama), our highs could be a couple degrees too warm, especially
in our western areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023
A strong 500 mb high will move east across the FL Peninsula on Thu
night, then move out east across the Bahamas on Friday and Friday
night. Upper heights over the forecast area will start to fall on
Friday and Friday night, as a potent 500 mb shortwave move from
the Southern Plains on Friday to the upper Great Lakes on
Saturday.
So warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday under high
pressure aloft. A cold front will push into central Alabama...
possibly into southeast Alabama... on Saturday, before weakening
and losing definition while getting hung up over Alabama and
Georgia on Sunday and Monday.
On Saturday as flow aloft peaks and briefly takes on a slight
cyclonic curvature, moderate instability will develop on Saturday
afternoon. If the front gets close enough, or perhaps an outflow
boundary from earlier convection can drift south, there could be
enough focus for thunderstorm development. Convective parameters
would then favor strong storms, with isolated severe possible.
As the washed out and ill-defined front lingers over Alabama and
Georgia on Sunday and Monday, a chance of showers and
thunderstorms will also stick around, especially during the
daytime hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023
A more solid cold front is likely to pass across the forecast area
around Tuesday or Wednesday, as an upper trough ejects out of the
Rockies and moves east. There are timing differences, with
solutions on frontal timing ranging from Tuesday morning to early
Wednesday. Strong thunderstorms could precede the front. The
timing differences make Tuesday as a day of greater forecast
uncertainty, depending on how quickly the front moves through.
Regarding thunder with the Tuesday-ish frontal passage, it is
notable that mid-level lapse rates steepen nicely. This makes deep
convection possible, with a some early signals of a conditional
hail threat in what could be a fast-moving line of storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Fog and low stratus will settle into the region around 05z
tonight affecting ECP, DHN, ABY, and TLH through about mid
morning. IFR cigs and LIFR vsbys are expected overnight,
particularly for ECP and DHN that could have very low visibilities
less than 1/4 mile. Winds will be calm and will later pick up
during the afternoon as southerly to southwesterly at about 5-10
kts. When the fog and low stratus clears by mid-late morning into
early afternoon, the skies will be clear and VFR cigs will be
expected through the rest of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Light to gentle southerly breezes of 6-10 knots prevail this
afternoon at Buoys 39 and 36, with wave heights running 2-3 feet
from the east. Seas will decrease a bit more this evening, then
remain under 3 feet until late Thursday night.
From CWF synopsis...High pressure east of Florida will maintain
gentle to occasionally moderate southeast breezes through Thursday
night. Southerly breezes will freshen on Friday night and
Saturday, as a cold front dissipates over the Southeast States. We
will then return to a pattern of high pressure east of Florida,
with gentle to moderate southerly breezes over the northeast Gulf.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023
High dispersions are expected across southwest Georgia Thursday
afternoon as transport winds increase to around 15 mph out of the
southwest and mixing heights rise to 4,500-5,000 feet. Elsewhere,
good dispersions are expected with slightly lower mixing heights and
south to southwest transport winds around 10-15 mph. Relative
humidity will remain above critical levels, dropping into the upper
30s to lower 40s inland, and upper 40s to the 50s along the coast.
Transport winds increase a bit on Friday (15-20 mph) and further on
Saturday (20-25 mph) ahead of an approaching cold front. This will
lead to high dispersions in the Alabama and Georgia zones both days.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday, with the
highest chances over the western parts of the forecast area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023
No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 54 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 59 77 63 77 / 0 0 10 0
Dothan 54 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 54 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 57 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 56 85 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 60 75 63 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM
CDT/ Thursday for FLZ007>015-026-108-112-114-115.
GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ065>069.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Haner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
937 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 934 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
Mild night underway with overnight low temps near seasonal high
temperature values. Forecast is on track and update will
incorporate observed trends. Latest guidance continues to support
widespread showers and storms developing tomorrow afternoon with
locally heavy rains tomorrow night into Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
The main concern today will be severe weather and heavy rain/flood
potential Thursday afternoon thru Friday.
A cold front will push into NE OK tomorrow morning and will
gradually stall near the I-44 corridor Thursday afternoon ahead of
an approaching southern stream wave. Showers and storms will
increase in coverage Thursday afternoon near the front from
central into northeast Oklahoma. These initial storms will have
1k-2k j/kg of CAPE and 70kts of 500mb flow to work with, and as
such the 06Z and 12Z runs of the HRRR and the 00Z and 12Z HREF
both show a corridor of UH tracks along or just south of I-44
during the afternoon. Large hail, possibly golf ball or larger,
and some damaging wind will be the main threats. Weaker low-level
flow/shear, from the surface to 850mb, will limit the tornado
threat with this event. The severe threat is expected to wane into
the evening hours as storms spread east. However, storm motions
nearly parallel to the forcing boundary may lead to training
storms, along with the potential for multiple rounds of storms as
the boundary sinks slowly south and elevated storms develop north
of it over the same areas. The latest data suggests the potential
for localized 3 to 5 inch amounts across NE OK into NW AR,
increasing the potential for flash flooding. A flood watch has
been issued to cover this threat beginning Thursday afternoon. The
ejection of the southern stream wave has been trending slower in
the recent data, suggesting that the heavy rain threat will linger
in the eastern portions of the forecast area well into Friday. For
this reason, the flood watch will be in effect thru the day on
Friday.
Another round of storms is expected to develop near the
advancing frontal low and Pacific front late Thursday night into
Friday morning to our west and is expected to advance east into
southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas Friday morning. These
storms could pose a severe wind threat before shifting east of the
area by afternoon.
Another wave will slide across the central Plains on Sunday, but
the latest data has trended drier and thus the low PoPs in the
going forecast were left unchanged. The weather heading into the
next work week looks largely tranquil.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023
VFR conditions prevail across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
this evening. Flying conditions are expected to worsen later tonight and
especially on Thursday as moisture surges into the region in advance
of a cold front. Thunderstorms will begin to impact area sites Thursday
afternoon with poor flying conditions in and around thunderstorm areas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 66 74 49 60 / 0 90 90 70
FSM 63 77 62 71 / 0 40 90 90
MLC 65 75 57 69 / 0 50 100 80
BVO 62 73 44 58 / 10 50 80 60
FYV 63 70 55 66 / 0 90 100 90
BYV 64 72 53 64 / 0 80 100 90
MKO 65 74 54 65 / 10 80 100 80
MIO 66 70 46 59 / 10 80 90 80
F10 65 73 51 65 / 0 90 90 70
HHW 65 78 64 74 / 10 30 80 80
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for
OKZ057-058-060>072.
AR...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...10