Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/17/23


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
718 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 717 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Updated zones to allow the Wind Advisory for the far eastern planes to expire. Wind Advisory continues in the Middle Rio Grande Valley and Upper Tularosa Valley. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 307 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023 An active pattern will continue through the forecast period. A backdoor cold front across eastern New Mexico will seep through the central mountain chain tonight resulting in some gusty east canyon winds across the Albuquerque metro and Carrizozo areas through midday tomorrow. This cold front will also provide some snow for the Continental Divide and surrounding zones in western New Mexico resulting in slick travel conditions for the morning commute. Another weak system looks to slide through the state late Friday into Saturday bringing more rain and snow to the region. However, confidence on the overall precipitation coverage from this system is low. There could be a brief break in precipitation Sunday with temperatures remaining well below normal for mid March. Rain and snow will return for western and northern areas as early as Monday ahead of the next Pacific storm system. Temperatures will also warm up to near normal across central and eastern areas by mid next week ahead of this storm system. Additionally southwest to west winds will ramp up beginning Tuesday, peaking on Wednesday, as the storm system inches closer towards the state. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 307 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023 The first and main upper level trough is ejecting east out of the Rockies and a backdoor cold front is advancing southwest into the highlands and southeast plains this afternoon, bringing windy conditions to much of eastern NM. Forcing associated with the backdoor front as it continues to make westward progress overnight will combine with disturbed westerly flow and Pacific moisture to produce an expansion of showers into central and eventually western NM. Lowering snow levels are forecast overnight as well and should bring snow down to valley floors by Friday morning, including across the Albuquerque Metro. The front is forecast to bring a gusty east canyon/gap wind as is pushes through the central mountain chain and we`ll issue a Wind Advisory shortly that will include the middle RGV and upper Tularosa Valley through 7AM MDT. Will also add a Winter Weather Advisory for the Sandia/Manzano Mtns, the west central mtns and Glorieta pass where accumulating snow will likely impact the morning commutes. Will also extend the Winter Storm Warning through mid day Friday given that snow, although light, will likely continue and impacts to the morning commute are expected. Both the latest HRRR and HREF show the typical Albuquerque precipitation hole once the backdoor front surges through, but that could change by early Friday morning as winds trend down and turn slightly southeast. Precipitation type by the Friday morning commute in Albuquerque would definitely be snow, but temperatures will be relatively warm (near freezing), so impacts, if any, should be minimal. Folks commuting into Albuquerque from Santa Fe or the east mountain communities may encounter difficult driving conditions. Friday will be cold given cloud cover and the airmass building in behind the cold front, with highs 20-25 degrees below normal across much of the area. The most recent model solutions are at odds with the timing of the next well defined shortwave trough, forecast to move into western NM either mid day Friday or early Friday evening. Snow showers may trend back up across central NM Friday night as the shortwave trough moves slowly east over the area and interacts with the remaining forcing from the backdoor cold front, but forecast confidence is low on timing and impacts at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 307 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023 A compact shortwave trough on the backside of a 510 dm 500 mb low over the Great Lakes, will slide through New Mexico during the day Saturday. Models are struggling on if the feature is strong enough and has sufficient Pacific and Gulf moisture to generate precipitation across central and eastern New Mexico. Winds will be easterly at the surface, thanks to surface high pressure over the southern plains, so this upslope flow could be enough to help. Southern parts of the forecast area would have the higher likelihood of seeing some light precipitation, due to being in closer proximity to the higher moisture. Confidence is high that temperatures on Saturday will be well below normal by 15 to 25 degrees, due to the extensive cloud cover and easterly flow. A weak shortwave ridge will build east Sunday morning along with some drier air aloft. There is potential for some morning fog, due to lingering ABL moisture from the recent precipitation. However, soundings from the NAM are depicting surface dewpoint depressions little too high for fog, with just low level stratus expected. For that reason, opted to leave out mention of fog in the forecast for now. Compared to prior forecasts, Sunday looks to be the quietest day of the forecast period thanks to the aforementioned shortwave ridge. Surface winds are expected to veer to more of a southerly direction, allowing for a few degrees of warming, but still remaining below average by 15 to 20 degrees. The brief dry period won`t last for long though, as rain and mountain snow looks to return across northwestern areas as early as Monday, due to a lead shortwave trough ahead of the larger and deeper trough along the Pacific coast. Precipitation will favor the southwest slopes of the Chuska and Tusas mountains due to the southwest upper level flow. Meanwhile, central and eastern areas will warm up to the 50s on Monday, compared to low to mid 40s over the weekend, thanks to this warmer southwest flow. Southwest upper level flow strengthens on Tuesday as the Pacific upper level trough crashes in the coast. 500 mb flow will increase to 50 to 60 kts and 700 mb flow increases to 25 to 35 kts, resulting in surface winds of 20 to 30 mph across the high terrain and eastern plains due to some daytime mixing. Upper level divergence ahead of the trough will allow for more valley showers and mountain snow chances across northern and western areas. Temperatures will warm even more across central and eastern areas, due to downsloping effects with 60s to around 70 common. Overnight lows Tuesday and Wednesday will be warmer compared to the weekend, thanks to the WAA ahead of the trough. Southwest winds on Wednesday strengthen to 25 to 35 mph with gusts of up to 50 mph as the trough moves inland over the Great Basin. The extent to how far east the precipitation spreads of Wednesday will depend on how far south this upper level trough digs with the GFS slightly deeper compared to the ECMWF and Canadian. Ensembles show some variation in the southern extent of this trough as well. Central and eastern areas will see their warmest temperatures of the week, with upper 60s to mid 70s expected as downsloping maximizes. Temperatures cool off thereafter as the trough moves through the state Thursday with some gusty northwest winds. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023 A series of disturbances will continue to cross tonight and Friday, while a backdoor cold front advances westward to the AZ border, causing scattered to numerous rain and snow showers to continue from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward. Mountain obscurations will be persistent, and periods of heavier precipitation will produce MVFR and IFR conditions. Accumulating snow will impact locations mainly above 6000 feet. The backdoor cold front will plunge into the middle Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys with strong east canyon winds at Albuquerque and Carrizozo from early this evening until mid morning Thursday. An Airport Weather Warning has been issued for gusts over 35 kt at KABQ. This east canyon wind will probably be disrupted at times by rain and snow showers moving through these valleys during the late night hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 307 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next seven days, although there is some potential across the eastern plains by Tue/Wed. In the meantime, unsettled conditions with well below normal temperatures and good chances for wetting precipitation will persist through Saturday before getting a break on Sunday with weak ridging moving overhead. Winds and chances for wetting precipitation will be back on the uptrend Monday and Tuesday in advance of the next Pacific trough, forecast to move over Wednesday into Thursday. Strong winds are forecast from Tuesday through Thursday, both ahead of and behind the passing trough and especially across eastern NM. Chances for wetting precipitation will mostly be confined to the mountains of wester and central NM during the Tuesday through Thursday period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 27 43 25 47 / 10 20 10 10 Dulce........................... 23 36 19 42 / 40 50 20 30 Cuba............................ 24 33 20 37 / 40 60 30 30 Gallup.......................... 27 41 22 43 / 40 50 20 10 El Morro........................ 26 38 22 38 / 60 60 30 30 Grants.......................... 24 38 22 39 / 60 60 30 20 Quemado......................... 28 44 26 42 / 30 50 40 40 Magdalena....................... 28 40 28 37 / 50 40 70 50 Datil........................... 28 43 26 36 / 30 50 70 40 Reserve......................... 26 49 25 50 / 5 20 40 40 Glenwood........................ 34 51 33 53 / 5 20 20 40 Chama........................... 19 30 14 34 / 70 60 30 40 Los Alamos...................... 24 32 23 35 / 70 70 30 40 Pecos........................... 20 29 20 33 / 90 60 40 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 20 30 19 33 / 90 40 30 40 Red River....................... 11 26 10 28 / 90 40 40 50 Angel Fire...................... 9 28 9 28 / 90 50 40 60 Taos............................ 19 32 18 36 / 90 40 30 30 Mora............................ 16 30 15 31 / 90 40 30 30 Espanola........................ 27 38 25 42 / 70 60 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 24 32 23 35 / 90 70 40 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 24 35 24 38 / 90 60 40 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 31 40 31 40 / 70 60 60 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 31 43 31 42 / 60 50 50 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 31 45 31 44 / 60 50 50 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 30 42 30 43 / 60 50 60 20 Belen........................... 31 46 30 46 / 40 30 60 40 Bernalillo...................... 30 41 29 44 / 60 60 50 30 Bosque Farms.................... 29 46 29 45 / 50 40 60 30 Corrales........................ 30 42 29 44 / 60 60 50 20 Los Lunas....................... 30 46 29 45 / 50 40 60 30 Placitas........................ 29 38 29 39 / 80 60 60 40 Rio Rancho...................... 30 41 29 44 / 60 60 60 20 Socorro......................... 32 46 32 45 / 40 20 60 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 24 34 24 34 / 80 60 70 50 Tijeras......................... 26 36 26 37 / 70 60 60 50 Edgewood........................ 24 35 24 36 / 80 50 60 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 22 37 22 37 / 80 50 50 40 Clines Corners.................. 19 32 21 33 / 80 40 40 40 Mountainair..................... 23 37 24 36 / 50 50 60 40 Gran Quivira.................... 23 38 24 36 / 60 50 60 40 Carrizozo....................... 30 44 30 42 / 50 30 30 50 Ruidoso......................... 21 37 22 34 / 50 30 30 60 Capulin......................... 13 33 16 34 / 40 10 20 20 Raton........................... 16 36 18 38 / 70 10 30 20 Springer........................ 18 38 20 39 / 70 10 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 17 31 17 34 / 70 30 20 30 Clayton......................... 18 40 21 40 / 5 0 5 10 Roy............................. 19 36 21 38 / 40 10 10 20 Conchas......................... 27 44 27 45 / 20 5 5 30 Santa Rosa...................... 27 43 26 42 / 30 20 10 40 Tucumcari....................... 25 45 25 45 / 10 0 5 20 Clovis.......................... 26 46 26 45 / 10 0 5 20 Portales........................ 26 47 25 47 / 10 0 5 20 Fort Sumner..................... 28 47 27 45 / 20 5 5 30 Roswell......................... 35 51 30 48 / 20 0 5 30 Picacho......................... 28 43 28 40 / 20 10 10 30 Elk............................. 25 40 24 37 / 30 20 20 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Friday for NMZ206-212-221. Wind Advisory until 7 AM MDT Friday for NMZ219-225. Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Friday for NMZ210-211- 213>215. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for NMZ216-227. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
738 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Periods of rain will continue through tonight, possibly changing to snow before ending late tonight. Little or no accumulation of snow is expected tonight. Cool conditions are expected through the weekend, with a warm-up coming for next week. Currently, highs in the 50s and 60s are expected for mid to late week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 738 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Cold front is at our doorstep this evening, analyzed just west of Galesburg and Rushville at 7 pm. Latest HRRR brings it to the I-55 corridor by 11 pm and I-57 toward 1 am. Until it passes through, the periods of rain will continue. Aside from near the surface low (Galesburg/Peoria area), winds are starting to pick up across much of the CWA, with recent gusts to near 40 mph at Decatur and Mattoon. Aside from the wind shift to the west, the gusts will remain 30-40 mph well into Friday. Temperatures remain in the low-mid 50s at 7 pm over a good chunk of the forecast area, but will be taking a nosedive soon as the front moves through. By sunrise, wind chills in the teens will prevail west of I-57 with air temperatures dropping below freezing. Overall temperature trend is on track with only a few minor adjustments needed over the next couple hours. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Currently, an upper level wave is moving east across the plains states. A lead wave will move through the region tonight, with moisture/temp advection aiding in lift out ahead of the wave. The resulting areas of rain will continue to move northeast across the area this afternoon. Tonight, the upper wave moves through the area...along with a surface cold front. The model suite hints that the rain will likely change to snow before ending. However, it`ll likely be only for an hour or two and likely between midnight and 6 am. So...a light dusting by morning isn`t out of the question, but not likely. The best chance for a little accumulation will be near and west of the IL River. Winds will be breezy out of the south until the front moves through and switches winds to the northwest. Still, we`re expecting 15 to 25 mph winds with gusts to 30 to 40 mph on both sides of the front. By Friday`s sunrise, precipitation will likely all be to the east in Indiana, with morning clouds giving way to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Still, a chilly day is expected with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Friday night, a vort lobe is expected to be rotating around the main upper low over Lake Superior with a reinforcing shot of cold air moving into IL at the surface. Models indicate the very low levels will likely be unstable enough for some snow showers...so have included some flurries Friday night into early Saturday. After that, the upper low drifts east and cold high pressure settles in at the surface for Saturday night into Sunday. Wind chills on Saturday and Sunday will be on the chilly side...with some single digits and teens expected. A warm-up is then expected with high in the 50s expected by Tuesday and Wednesday...and 60s by Thursday. However, rain is expected to return to the area by midweek as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Ceilings starting to decrease west of KSPI-KBMI and will quickly drop down into IFR territory over all of central Illinois over the next few hours. Periodic showers will continue until after a cold front passes, diminishing from west to east after 06Z. While ceilings lift above 1,000 feet as the rain ends, it will take until closer to midday before VFR conditions return. Winds are also a concern through the period. Latest wind profile from KILX shows 40 knot winds about 2,000 feet off the surface, and model guidance indicates this will increase to about 50 knots over eastern Illinois in the next hour or two. Will continue a LLWS mention in that area through about 06Z. Surface winds will become more gusty through the evening though, and a southerly flow will quickly turn to the west late evening as the front passes. Expect gusts of 25-35 knots to continue through much of Friday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SYNOPSIS...Knutsvig SHORT TERM...Knutsvig LONG TERM...Knutsvig AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
810 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 .Forecast Update... Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Periods of light rain within warm advection isentropic ascent regime preceding the next shortwave trough will continue through the evening. Many locations have already received up to around 0.10" across central Indiana, with locally 0.25" particularly across west- central and southwest portions of the area where more moderate embedded showers have occurred. Several more hours of periodic rain is expected. We increased amounts slightly, commensurate with HREF mean QPF, which brings west-central and southwest portions of the area up to around or slightly over 0.50" by morning when the rain ends. This is occurring ahead of a deepening closed low over the northern Plains and phasing southern stream shortwave trough. This will force a cold front through in the predawn hours ending precipitation. Preceding this will be tightening MSLP gradient and increasing low- level jet (i.e., fairly strong ageostrophic response). Wind speeds/gusts are somewhat in question later tonight. The gradient would support a noteworthy increase, but a deep isothermal layer, high-centered low-level jet core, and limited mixing will probably limit more substantial gusts. The newest version of the model blend starting point is ironically higher than all other models, due to overzealous bias correction. So, we have cut wind speeds back slightly more in line with the consensus of all other guidance for the overnight period. Hourly temperatures were adjusted slightly. Over-performing rain and associated evaporative cooling had countered warm advection. There may be a rise of a degree or two later this evening as low-level flow strengthens and upstream temperatures closer to the Ohio river are about 5-7 degrees warmer. && .Short Term...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 ...COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40MPH LIKELY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT... Ahead of a quickly-progressing cold front`s overnight arrival, cloud coverage has begun to spread across Central Indiana this afternoon. Temperatures have been steadily climbing throughout the afternoon as mixing brings both dry air and breezy winds down from aloft. Recent IND ACARS soundings depict the moistening of the column above a weakened inversion based around 900mb. This hints that the atmosphere has not fully mixed out yet, and temperatures may rise a few additional degrees before the sun sets later this evening. However, the increasing cloud coverage in the middle portions of the troposphere may serve as a limiting factor for this warming, meaning that it is unlikely that maximum temperatures today will rise above the 60 degree mark. Forecast guidance continues to converge towards a fast-moving front, meaning that the highest precipitation chances will exist between 02Z-08Z. As dry air wraps around the parent low throughout the day on Friday and winds shift to westerly and then northwesterly components throughout the day tomorrow, expect the forecast area to dry out and for cloud coverage to slowly thin out heading into tomorrow evening. Wind are anticipated to be quite gusty overnight into tomorrow, with gusts up to 40mph plausible. Pops after daybreak tomorrow were lowered to chance levels in accordance with the increased confidence in a faster-moving front. QPF hovers around half an inch of rain for the forecast area, meaning that this rainfall is unlikely to produce any significant hydrological impacts. While a few snowflakes cannot be entirely ruled out of the picture at the tail end of the precipitation due to strong cold air advection, chances of this appear low, and no significant winter weather appears likely from the passage of this first boundary. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the short term forecast is the non-traditional diurnal curve in which temperatures will follow. As cold air seeps in from the northwest while the front pushes through the area tomorrow, only marginal levels of heating can be expected, and this should be limited to southeastern portions of the forecast area. Areas in the NW are unlikely to see high temperatures above 40, and most of the area will remain below 45 degrees tomorrow. In short, expect Friday to be a rather gloomy day, with blustery winds and clouds expected for the majority of the day. && .Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 * Winter-like temperatures and the chance for light snow this weekend * Warming trend beginning early next week .Friday night - Sunday... Long term begins with another cold snap incoming for the weekend across Central Indiana. Area of low pressure late Friday night into Saturday pulls northward into Quebec while the mid and upper level trough hangs back around the northern Great Lakes. A mid and upper level wave on the backside of the trough pushes south early Saturday morning in the form of an arctic front at the leading edge of a frigid incoming airmass. Potential is there for scattered snow showers to develop as this boundary pushes through from the north and latest guidance has come in a bit more aggressive with the snow shower potential. Hi-res RAP guidance shows a 150 kt upper jet streak developing in Southern Indiana placing much of the state in an area of enhanced lift in the left exit region. RAP forecast soundings and cross sections show a saturated layer near the surface up to around 5,000 ft, including the dendritic growth zone. Guidance also shows 0-3km CAPE around 30-70 j/kg and 0-3 km shear upwards of 40-50 kts. All of these parameters coming together may create a conducive environment for snow showers and squalls 06z Saturday through early Saturday afternoon. While any accumulations would be spotty, it is not out of the question a few of the stronger showers could produce rates high enough to quickly coat the ground with a dusting. Dry air advection and subsidence under an approaching area of high pressure dry much of the column out by Saturday night and into Sunday. Guidance does show the upper trough hanging back over the region into Sunday, so will have to watch the possibility of left over moisture becoming trapped in the boundary layer keeping clouds around through Saturday night. If this happens, low temperatures Saturday night may remain elevated. By Sunday, expect a much drier and clear day across the region with high pressure located just to the south and west. Temperatures this weekend are expected to be well below average as a deep trough and arctic airmass settle in over the Midwest and Great Lakes. Temperatures aloft at 850mb fall as low as -15C with continued cold air advection and northerly flow as surface high pressure remains just west of the region. Highs will likely struggle to reach freezing Saturday with overnight lows dropping into the upper teens to low 20s. Once again, new vegetation growth and buds will likely be damaged from prolonged exposure to sub-freezing temperatures. Along with the cold temperatures and snow showers, winds should remain elevated much of the weekend, being the strongest on Saturday and weakening some on Sunday. A 30 kt low level jet remains over the area Saturday with steep low level lapse rates during peak heating of the day. Expect gusts to 30-35 mph Saturday afternoon diminishing some during the overnight hours. These winds may also be enhanced Saturday by convective snow showers developing. Windy conditions along with brief periods of heavier snowfall in the strongest showers may lower visibility briefly. Low level jet weakens for Sunday however gusts to 15 to 20 mph are still possible. Wind chill this weekend will drop down into the single digits during the morning hours and may keep daytime hours feeling like its in the teens rather than 20s-30s! .Next Week... The weather pattern almost repeats itself going into next week as high pressure pushes east and yet another system develops in the Plains. Ensemble guidance suggest below normal temperature anomalies on Monday with a warming trend through the week as warm air advection increases ahead of the developing system. Highs in the 50s to possibly 60 degrees likely with little chances for rain the first half of the week. No surprise that there is quite a bit of model spread with that next system; however confidence is still somewhat high in dry weather with a warming trend. Both GFS and EC ensembles show an increase in moisture and pw late next Thursday into Friday indicating the next possibility of rain for Central Indiana. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 606 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Impacts: * Wind speeds and gusts increasing late evening through dawn * Low ceilings (at least MVFR and probably IFR) through early morning * Winds trending westerly Friday morning * Lingering MVFR through much of Friday; uncertain ending time Discussion: We are in the warm advection preceding rain shield of the approaching mid-latitude system. Ceilings will continue to lower reaching MVFR later this evening, and IFR overnight. Preceding the cold front, gradient tightens enough to cause an increase in wind. Low-level wind shear thresholds may be minimally met, specially if surface winds aren`t as strong as expected, given the position and magnitude of the low-level jet. Once the front comes through during the predawn hours, winds will veer to westerly. MVFR ceilings will linger in moist cyclonic low- level flow likely through much of the day. This is the most uncertain part of the forecast and we`ll have to refine the end time once confidence increases. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...BRB Short Term...Marcus Long Term...CM Aviation...BRB