Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/16/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
934 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Several bands of light to moderate snow continue to move through
central North Dakota this evening. A report north of Bismarck
depicted very low visibility in snow, within the transient band
currently moving through the Morton/Burleigh county area. Though
periods of heavier are possible in the very short-term, these
rates should trend down in coverage through the evening as
previously discussed and accumulations are expected to remain
light.
UPDATE Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
A band of 700mb frontogenesis was depicted over north central
North Dakota this evening by RAP guidance, coinciding with
moderate snowfall rates over northern North Dakota this evening.
Snowfall rates are aided by divergence aloft driven by a jet
streak over the Dakotas, which should lift north and cut off
coupling with a lower level baroclinic zone that will shift south.
This should diminish the chances for heavier snowfall rates this
evening, as light snow spreads south through the night. Previous
forecast of 1 to 3 inches looks reasonable across western and
central North Dakota, with lighter amounts south of the
Interstate.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
The main forecast issue in the short term period will be ongoing
snow north and snow chances central and south later today and
tonight, along with mixed precipitation.
Areas of snow continue over the north west and north central. The
band of light precipitation that moved through the south this
morning has exited to the east, with mostly cloudy skies south,
and even some sunshine. Good synoptic scale forcing and some FG
forcing in the north this afternoon, and beginning to slide into
the central early this evening, before dissipating, may result in
a few bands of heavier snow in the northern third of the CWA
through early evening. The entire band will propagate south
through the night, ending over the JRV early Thursday morning.
Latest storm total snowfall that includes this afternoon
indicates a good swath of 1.5 to 3 inches from roughly the
Highway 2 corridor to the Highway 200 corridor, tapering to around
an inch northward to the International Border and tapering off to
the south around an inch along the I-94 corridor and less than an
inch over the southern JRV. Forecast soundings across the south
are not overly favorable for mixed precipitation, but a brief
period of light mixed precipitation can not be ruled out along the
leading edge of the precipitation shield as it progresses
southward through southern ND late this afternoon and this
evening. NBM has been consistent in keeping a slight chance of
mixed precip along and south of the I-94 corridor through early
evening and see no reason to drop it at this time.
Winds will increase tonight and Thursday as the surface low
currently around the Black Hills tracks east across SD and into
southern Minnesota by Thursday morning. Patchy blowing snow will
be the result tonight across the forecast area, and is expected to
continue through the day Thursday over eastern portions of
central ND. Overnight lows tonight are expected to be in the
single digits to mid teens, with highs Thursday in the mid teens
to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Cold temperatures highlight the extended forecast period over the
weekend with some moderation in temperatures early next week.
After this current system exits to the east, a large upper level
trough develops over the central and eastern U.S. with the closed
upper low situated over the Great Lakes Friday and exiting to the
northeast U.S. through the weekend. A piece of energy dropping
south through the developing upper trough Thursday into Friday is
expected to track south across western and central ND, providing
the support for scattered snow showers. We mentioned this
yesterday and the NBM is finally starting to pick up on this with
a small area of slight chance pops in the west. We expanded this
area a bit, but impacts at this time look minimal.
The main story Thursday night, through the weekend will be the
unseasonably cold temperatures. Normal highs are around 40 and
normal low in the upper teens for Bismarck. We are currently
looking at highs in the Teens Friday and Saturday, with lows
Friday night and Saturday night below zero. Potentially 5 to 10
below zero early Sunday morning. The far southwest will be a
little warmer, but still well below normal.
Temperatures remain below normal, but do moderate early next week
with little in the way of precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
MVFR-IFR cigs and vsbys through the first portion of the 00Z TAF
period. Widespread MVFR-IFR cigs will persist tonight, with some
gradual improvement from the northwest as the current system
exits. Light snow will spread into southern North Dakota overnight,
reducing visibilities at times, then tapering off by 12Z. 15 to 25
kt winds are expected across the south, central, and east through
the TAF period, with gusts to 35 kts in the central and east
during the day Thursday.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
928 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through Thursday, then move
offshore. A cold front will pass through Friday night into
Saturday morning, followed by cool high pressure into early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Temperatures are dropping quickly under clear skies and light
winds. 16/0115z observations already show temperatures in the
mid-upper 30s in parts of the Francis Marion National Forest
with Huger at 35, Witherbee RAWS at 38, Shulerville at 38 and
the Wambaw RAWS at 39.
Prime radiational conditions will be in place tonight as
surface high pressure shifts over the area. The current Freeze
Warning will remain unchanged for now, but concerns remain that
parts of the warning area, especially for the Georgia coastal
zones, may not quite reach freezing. RAP forecast soundings at
16/12z still show the lowest 1000 ft averaging about 4-10 degree
warmer than what was measured by the 15/12z KCHS raob this
morning. This could be enough to keep temperatures at or just
above freezing across the coastal zones as daybreak approaches
which is suggested by a number of statistical and gridded
guidance members. For now, the current thinking is that the
radiational component will win out given the very dry airmass in
place, but both model and observational trends will be
monitored. In addition to temperatures at or near
freezing, widespread to areas of frost are expected to develop
away from the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday: Aloft, a ridge of high pressure will extend across the
East CONUS, leading to height rises locally. At the sfc, high
pressure centered across the Carolinas will slowly slide offshore,
favoring a light southerly wind across the local area by late day.
Mostly sunny skies in combination with deep layered high pressure
across the area will lead to warmer conditions than the previous
day, with highs generally in the upper 60s/lower 70s, except cooler
near the beaches. Despite only a few clouds overnight, a light
southerly wind should help maintain noticeably warmer temps than the
previous night, with lows generally ranging in the mid 40s well
inland to low/mid 50s closer to the coast.
Friday and Saturday: The axis of a mid-lvl ridge will extend across
the Southeast to start off the weekend, then shift offshore as a
broad trough shifts across the Central United States and to the
Northeast. The trough will help force a sfc cold front across the
Southeast United States, eventually reaching the local area Friday
night, then passing offshore Saturday morning. Ahead of the front, a
southerly flow will drive warmer temps into the region, favoring
afternoon highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees away from the
coast (warmest across southeast Georgia). This should aid in low-lvl
mixing into enhanced wind fields, suggesting Friday will experience
gusty wind conditions across much of the area, including across Lake
Moultrie (around 25 mph). As the front approaches, chances of precip
will increase, starting across inland areas late Friday. However,
the bulk of rain/showers should occur Friday night into early
Saturday when maximum forcing associated with the front occurs.
There is even some hint at marginal instability across part of the
area during fropa, suggesting a few thunderstorms across southeast
Georgia Friday night into Saturday. Once fropa occurs, cold air
advection across the region and building high pressure from the west-
northwest will lead to a drying/cooling trend Saturday afternoon.
High temps will be noticeably cooler than the previous day,
generally ranging in the low-mid 60s (warmest along the coast).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main energy associated with the mid-level trough to our north
will move offshore Sunday. A very broad trough looks to be over most
of the U.S. Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will approach our
region on Sunday, bringing us dry conditions and below normal
temperatures. The High will then pass to our north on Monday.
Meanwhile, a Gulf Low pressure system could bring showers to our
area Monday night into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 17/00z.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail at
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through Friday afternoon. Additionally, winds will be
gusty Friday afternoon, around 25 kt at times at all terminals.
Tempo flight restrictions are possible Friday night into late
Saturday morning as lower cigs and showers arrive with a passing
cold front. VFR conditions should then return at all terminals
Saturday afternoon and persist into Monday next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: Winds and seas will continue to diminish through
tonight as high pressure builds over the area.
Thursday: High pressure centered across the Southeast United States
will trend offshore during the evening and overnight period. The
pattern should favor a light wind during the morning, then an
increasing southerly wind late day and night as the pressure
gradient tightens across local waters well ahead of a cold front
advancing across the Deep South. Seas will also build overnight, but
conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
during the period.
Friday and Saturday: The pressure gradient will strengthen further
as a cold front approaches the Southeast early weekend, then shifts
offshore Friday night into Saturday morning. Strong and gusty
southerly winds will increase, and wind-driven seas will quickly
build. All of the ocean waters, including the Charleston Harbor will
likely need Small Craft Advisories by Friday afternoon. We could
even see gale force wind gusts across northern South Carolina waters
and maybe the offshore Georgia waters Friday night. Gale Warnings
could eventually be needed for these locations. Behind the front,
cold air advection associated with an approaching sfc high doesn`t
appear to be too strong across the local waters. If this occurs,
conditions should improve enough that most marine headlines could
expire Saturday late afternoon. But a surge in winds is expected
Saturday night, with the strongest winds across offshore Georgia
waters, so small craft advisory level conditions could persist.
Sunday: High pressure will build across the region. Winds/seas are
expected to lower during the day, followed by another surge in winds
overnight. However, conditions should remain just below small craft
advisory levels.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure moving across the region will bring dry conditions. RH
values are expected to drop into the lower 20s across inland
locations Thursday afternoon. However, winds won`t be particularly
gusty. Therefore, we do not plan on issuing any Fire Danger
Statements.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX WSR-88D remains out of service for the Service Life
Extension Project. It is expected to be powered up later today
for a 24-hour test period. It will need to be taken back down on
Thursday to perform a final inspection. If no issues are found,
the radar should be back in service by late Thursday.
During the downtime, adjacent radars will be available,
including: Columbia, SC (KCAE); Robbins AFB (KJGX); Moody AFB
(KVAX); Jacksonville, FL (KJAX); and Wilmington, NC (KLTX).
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for SCZ040-
042>045-047>052.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
756 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
...New 00Z Aviation Discussion and Evening Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
More diurnal mixing occurring than initially forecast so adjusted
dewpoints down across majority of the area through the rest of
tonight, resulting in lower RH values. CAMs having the usual hard
time in light wind mix environment, so went with equal blend mix
of NBM10pct, CONS, and HRRR and manual smoothing. In addition,
temps have trended upward across central Georgia with latest model
guidance, into the mid 30s. However, could potentially seeing
freezing conditions over the area and with start of growing season
underway, opted to continue Freeze Warning across the area.
Morgan
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
High pressure ridge currently centered over TN/AL/GA is expected
to keep things dry through Thu night. This ridge will gradually
move southeast pushing off the FL/GA/SC coast by Thu evening.
Another chilly morning is expected Thursday, with lows forecast
to be in the upper 20s across the N GA mountains to mid 30s
across central Georgia. Due to this, have upgraded the Freeze
Watch for tonight to a freeze warning. With light winds, clear
skies, and near- freezing temperatures, areas of frost will be
possible Tonight. With clear skies continuing and temperatures
moderating underneath the ridge Thu afternoon, highs will increase
into the mid 60s to low 70s. In spite of slowly recovering
dewpoints, the increasing temperatures will allow RH values to
drop below fire danger thresholds once again, which will warrant
the need for another Fire Danger Statement Thursday afternoon and
evening. The axis of the upper ridge will clear Georgia to the
east late in the day Thursday, at which point southwesterly upper
flow will begin as an upper trough digs southward into the
Mississippi River Valley. As this ridge pushes off shore it will
allow next frontal system to move into NW GA Thu night/Fri
morning. Will see southerly winds increase ahead of this cold
front with showers and isolated thunderstorms moving NW to SE
across the state Friday.
01
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
The extended period begins active with a deep trough centered over
the upper MS valley and a cold front on our doorstep as energy
rotates into the trof from the southern stream which extends back
across the across SW TX/Mexico and into the Pacific. The southern
stream is forecast to phase with the upper Midwest trof by late
Friday across the Great Lakes Region. In our neck of the woods,
surface ridge off the east coast will help to begin the process of
WAA ahead of the approaching front, however quite a bit of airmass
recovery is needed to get the region to a level sufficient to support
anything more than rain/showers. While shear values will be
sufficient to raise concerns for severe, most of the main energy
will remain north of the region and thus, like the last several
fronts, the dynamics are not aligned with the frontal forcing.
Additionally, SREF ensembles are not too keen on much if any
destabilization on Friday ahead of the front. Mean CAPE values
ranging less than 100J/KG up to the I20 corridor in addition to mid
level lapse rates at or under 5 deg/km don`t exactly boost
confidence in seeing much if any thunder much less severe. Model
soundings reflect a moderate to occasionally heavy rain associated
with the front as it swings through during the day Friday. SPC has
introduced a marginal risk for storms across southern GA which
touches a couple counties across the southern portion of our area so
the risk isn`t nil, but it is low.
Behind the Friday front, a fairly strong arctic surface ridge sinks
into the center of the country and takes control. Freeze warnings
will likely be needed as early as Saturday AM, definitely Sunday and
possibly Monday as temps again drop to and below freezing for much
of the area. Dewpoints in the teens or lower on tap by sunday
afternoon may introduce some fire weather concerns as well depending
on how much rain falls on Friday.
Models diverge a bit by Monday as energy impacting the west coast
this weekend works eastward into the southern plains. The cold
arctic high from the weekend works east and bridges across the
Appalachians by Monday putting us into a classic wedge situation
across North and NE GA while energy aloft works through the flow.
The GFS and some of the GEFS members are hinting at a gulf coast low
developing along the baroclinic zone near the coast associated with
short wave energy working through the flow by late Monday. Enough
of the members agree to put a low in the mean sfc pattern in the GOM
and beginning its track NE toward NE Florida by Tue pm. But it
remains to be seen if this plays out as both the EC and Canadian
members are less gung ho regarding any sfc low development. Because
of the uncertainty and the spread in the models, POPs Monday night
and Tue only peak at around 30 pct..and at this time are all rain.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light and VRB
winds expected overnight, with predominate direction from the
SE/SSE by 10-14z. Winds continue to increase and hover around due
S through the afternoon, between 7-10kts. Winds should go SW/SSW
and remain after 05z tomorrow night.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on winds.
High confidence on all other elements.
Morgan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 33 67 47 66 / 0 0 30 90
Atlanta 36 67 51 66 / 0 0 50 90
Blairsville 31 62 44 59 / 0 0 70 100
Cartersville 31 67 50 66 / 0 0 70 100
Columbus 36 71 52 73 / 0 0 20 90
Gainesville 34 65 47 64 / 0 0 60 90
Macon 34 69 49 74 / 0 0 10 70
Rome 31 68 50 66 / 0 0 70 100
Peachtree City 33 68 50 69 / 0 0 40 90
Vidalia 36 70 50 77 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ001>009-
011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-
102>113.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...Morgan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Hopefully you are able to spend at least a little time outside
today. Temperatures are warming into the 70s with a southeasterly
breeze. Most areas are experiencing mostly sunny skies. The real
story in the short term is tomorrow`s storm system. So let`s dive
right into it!
A mid/upper trough is currently digging southward over the
Intermountain West. The trough is represented nicely via RAP 500
MB analysis and is easily seen on water vapor imagery. This trough
will continue to propagate eastward, inducing a lee side surface
trough over the central plains by tomorrow morning. This will
consolidate into a low pressure system that will quickly move
northeastward towards the Great Lakes as it strengthens.
Meanwhile, an associated strong cold front will push southward
across Texas, reaching our CWA late Thursday night into early
Friday morning. More on that front later because the weather
becomes interesting well ahead of the front.
Wind shear over southeast Texas will increase on Thursday as the
trough digs southward over the central CONUS. The 500 MB jet max
appears as if it will remain north of our region, though our
northern counties will certainly be closer to that maximum. The
shear looks more interesting at the mid and lower levels. HREF
ensemble 850 MB winds suggest a 40-50 knot low level jet will track
over our region tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Those same
ensembles show the shear peaking over 50 knots for our northern
counties while closer to 30-35 knots at the coast. SREF shear
probabilities indicate a near 100 percent chance of at least 30 knot
0-6KM bulk shear for the entire CWA with a 90 percent chance of at
least 40 knot bulk shear north of I-10 and 70-90 percent south of I-
10. NAM forecast soundings are telling a similar story. If the
current forecast soundings have their way, SFC-1KM shear will be
exceeding 20 knots and possibly approach 30 knots by tomorrow
afternoon.
The steepening surface pressure gradient will increase southerly
winds which will enhance WAA and moisture transport. HREF ensembles
suggest PWs could approach 2.0 inches with widespread 1.4-1.6 inch
values. Meanwhile, there remains good consensus of 1500-2500 J/kg
CAPE. There are also appears to be a mid/upper shortwave over
northern Mexico that will move across the Lone Star State tomorrow
further enhancing upward motion. However, not every atmospheric
parameter will favor thunderstorms. There will be a cap over our
southern counties, particularly south of I-10. This cap isn`t
expected to be as strong as some recent caps that spared our
southern counties and coast from storms. Plus, it will erode with
time. However, forecast soundings suggest that the cap could remain
stout enough to limit the atmosphere`s convective potential south of
I-10. The convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center
continues to indicate a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk of severe
thunderstorms for all but the coastal portions of our CWA. Coastal
areas are under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5).
So how do we think tomorrow will play out? Scattered shower activity
could develop over our northern and western counties as early as
tomorrow morning. We cannot even rule out an isolated thunderstorm
in our northwest / Brazos Valley counties as early as the morning
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage (particularly north of I-10), tomorrow afternoon as
shear and instability increase. The aforementioned shear,
instability, and moisture parameters will be favorable for all
severe weather hazards (tornadoes, hail, damaging winds). ALL areas
in our CWA should be weather alert tomorrow. That being said, the
most favorable environment for severe thunderstorms will be over the
northern half of the CWA.
So what about the front? The cold front will push through our region
late Thursday night into early Friday morning. An associated line of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact the region as the
front passes. The primary concern from these storms is wind. Robust
CAA in the front`s wake will bring much colder temperatures to
southeast Texas. More on those cooler temps in the long term below.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
In the wake of the strong cold front (moving through SE TX Thurs
night and into the coastal waters early Fri morning), colder and
quieter weather to prevail across the region from Fri on through
the weekend. While rain chances should be ending for most of the
CWA (except the southern counties/coast), lingering clouds along
with strong gusty N/NW winds should keep daytime temperatures in
the 50s for much of Fri. Some brief clearing is possible by late
Fri afternoon/evening, but a persistent SW upper flow pattern is
expected to remain in place and likely keep skies mostly cloudy/
cloudy through the weekend. And even with a offshore winds slow-
ly weakening, temperatures should remain on the cool side on Sat
and Sun. Highs are forecast to be in the 50s with lows mostly in
the 40s (but upper 30s possible for our northern counties(!!)).
Rain chances to return by late Sun on into Mon with the develop-
mentof a surface coastal trough (near/around the Lower to Middle
TX coasts) which will help keep cool/cloudy weather in place for
SE TX. As this system moves out to the east, look for the return
of onshore winds and warming temperatures by Tue (and especially
on Weds). 41
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
VFR conditions and breezy southeasterly winds will continue
through the evening hours with winds trending slightly downward to
around 10-12 knots. Cloud cover gradually increases from generally
northwest to southeast overnight with northern sites seeing an
earlier bout of MVFR ceilings. Scattered SHRA will also develop
in the Brazos Valley around 15Z as well. Look for wind speeds to
increase at all area sites around 15Z-16Z with
southerly/southeasterly winds around 15-18 knots with gusts near
or over 25 knots especially in the late afternoon hours. SHRA
coverage expands further southward going into the afternoon along
with lower cloud ceilings. There remains some uncertainty on if
the breezy winds will keep things mixed enough to prevent MVFR
ceilings in the afternoon for sites near and south of I-10.
Nevertheless, there will be a downward trend in ceilings going
into the late afternoon and evening hours as a cold front
approaches from the northwest.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Generally moderate to strong SE winds will prevail across the bays
and coastal waters tonight...so will be extending the current SCEC
and SCA configuration through Thur morning. At that time, will ex-
pect winds to further increase and have tweaked the SCA to include
all of the coastal waters and Matagorda Bay for tomorrow. The High
Rip Current Risk was also extended through tomorrow evening.
Models remain on track with the timing of the strong cold front as
we head into tomorrow night through early Fri morning. Very strong
and gusty N/NE winds to develop in the wake of this front and have
issued a Gale Watch for our coastal waters for Fri into Fri night.
This watch could be extended into Sat morning and perhaps upgraded
to a Gale Warning before it is all said and done. Another issue to
keep an eye on could be well below normal low water levels on Fri.
While the offshore winds should be decreasing by Sat, seas may re-
main elevated through the upcoming weekend (...especially over the
offshore waters). 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 76 43 53 / 0 80 90 10
Houston (IAH) 61 78 48 56 / 0 60 100 40
Galveston (GLS) 65 76 53 64 / 0 20 90 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday morning for
GMZ330-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ330-
350-355.
Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for
GMZ330-350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday evening for
GMZ335.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...41
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Temps have warmed nicely this afternoon, mid 60s to mid 70s, as
cloud cover has cleared most of the area. The last hold out is
across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle where temps are still in
the upper 50s to low 60s. The upper trough currently over
California/Nevada will continue pushing eastward through the night
before reaching eastern New Mexico by sunrise. Models are mostly dry
overnight as the upper trough approaches from the west. Only
convective models such as the HRRR show the potential for any precip
tonight into the early morning, but the likelihood is extremely low
give continue dry southeasterly surface flow and would result in just
virga showers. The southwesterly surface flow will keep temps fairly
warm overnight in the upper 40s across our northern zones to near 60
across the southern Rolling Plains.
A cold front will surge southward from the Northern Plains tomorrow
as the axis of the upper trough begins to approach the FA. Currently
models place the timing of the FROPA into the FA in the late
morning/early afternoon with full passage by sunset. Ultimately the
timing of the front will determine high temps for the afternoon with
an earlier FROPA resulting in cooler highs. Currently the forecast
will reflect highs ranging from the upper 50s across the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle to the mid 70s across the southern
Rolling Plains. Some precip does appear to be possible, but the best
chances will likely be limited to our northern zones along the
passing cold front. Conditions will continue to be dry ahead of the
approaching cold front thanks to downsloping winds with little to no
moisture available for shower development.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
An extended period of cold temperatures remains in store through the
weekend and into early as next week as tomorrow`s cold front is
followed by a reinforcing shot of cold air mid-weekend as a deep
upper level low rotates southeastward from the Canadian Prairies on
Thursday to the Great Lakes by the start of the day Saturday and
then as the low`s trailing trough sags southward over the central
Plains. Low amplitude southern stream energy is then progged to move
along the US-Mexico border, potentially bringing some light
precipitation to the forecast area. However, the model trends are
now toward an overall drier solution, or at least less overall
precipitation as precip potential is running into proverbial
headwinds in the form of dry sub-cloud layer, modest mid-level
moisture, and generally confluent flow where the southern stream
merges into the lingering broad northern stream trough. NBM still
has a few periods of solid chance PoPs through this period,
peaking Sunday night and Monday, but this is down from high
chance/likely categories. Given the negatives mentioned above,
this trend appears to be a good one. Temperatures through the
period are showing good continuity with the coldest temperatures
expected to be Sunday with the second push of cold air from the
north, followed by Monday when cloud cover, and possibly
precipitation, should limit the upward potential. Rapid warming
Tuesday and Wednesday is expected as the trough over the Plains is
replaced by a ridge and surface to low levels begin to experience
pressure/height falls in response to an upper heading toward the
Intermountain West.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Breezy to windy conditions are expected through the period at all
three TAF sites with southwest winds turning to the north late
tomorrow morning and afternoon with a passing cold front. Light
scattered rain showers are possible at KCDS tomorrow afternoon
for a few hours. Ceilings may drop to MVFR tomorrow following the
frontal boundary at KCDS/KPVW towards the end of the TAF period.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
732 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Latest RAP analysis shows that the shortwave is pushing east of
the area this evening which has brought an end to the precip
across South FL. Generally clearing skies overnight with some SCT
Cu remaining across the metro. Lowered dewpoints a bit over the
interior towards the Gulf coast tomorrow afternoon. With the
prevailing easterly flow tomorrow, expect that min RH values over
portions of interior Collier and Hendry counties will have no
problem falling into the mid and upper 30s during the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Northerly flow behind our recent frontal passage has begun to veer
more north-northeast this afternoon has upper level high pressure
begins to build back into the Southeast. A strong noreaster is
pushing northeast away from the New England states while a weak
shortwave is zipping around the periphery of this system across the
Florida peninsula. The presence of this feature could act to enhance
ascent locally, just enough to support the development of a few
isolated to scattered showers across our area as it passes from
northwest to southeast across the region through the remainder of
the evening. Beyond sunset today, a significantly drier airmass
aloft is ushered in behind the shortwave and this should swiftly
knock out any shower chances beyond nightfall tonight. Cloud cover
and prolonged northerly flow has led to afternoon highs barely
breaking 80 degrees today. Expect low temperatures in the upper
50s to low 60s for coastal areas and low 50s for interior areas.
Tomorrow, north-northeast flow will continue to advect a drier
airmass across the region, but will begin to veer more easterly by
the afternoon hours as high pressure strengthens across the
Southeast. This will result in a chilly morning compared to the last
several weeks with minimum temperatures on Thursday morning ranging
from the upper 40s to low 50s near Lake Okeechobee, mid 50s along
the Gulf coast, and upper 50s to low 60s across the East coast metro
areas. A temperature gradient will occur across the region during
the afternoon hours, as onshore northeasterly flow acts to keep the
eastern half of our area in the mid to upper 70s. Locations across
southwestern Florida will be in the low 80s as abundant sunshine,
lack of clouds, and light flow act to heat things up.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
As the large upper level ridge remains in place across the
region, the end of the week will wrap up dry and mild before the
arrival of a cold front. A large trough currently draped across
central US will make it`s way eastward as the coastal surface
high pressure off SE US moves further from the coast. The
accompanying cold front will arrive in Florida on Saturday and
cross the state over the weekend. It will bring a threat of
widespread showers and thunderstorms across our region. The
frontal boundary is forecast to stall in the vicinity of the FL
Straits through the rest of the weekend into Monday which will
keep the chances for precipitation in the forecast all weekend.
Compared to the dry weather these past few months, higher PWATs
(~1.5-2") and substantial QPF values will likely bringing wet
weather. Winds will pick up with the frontal passage bringing
gusts up to 20KT on Saturday. Temperatures will peak at mid-to-
high 80s on Saturday. Following, temperatures will be on a cooling
trend, dropping closer to seasonal, into early next week.
Moving into early next week, the models remain in agreement thus
bringing another system through the southeastern US states. As the
front stalls in the FL straits, the next system begins to move
into the Gulf and traverses towards FL. This system will bring
another front with more precipitation to the region approximately
on Tuesday & Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
VFR expected through the 00Z TAF period. NE winds 10 kts or less
tonight becoming easterly 10-15 kts during the day on Thursday.
FEW to SCT Cu through the period with ceilings generally 3k ft and
higher.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Peripheral effects of a series of low pressure systems in the
northwestern Atlantic will result in bouts of northeasterly swells
through the end of the work week. A Small Craft Advisory for the
Atlantic waters will remain in effect through this evening as
elevated wave action continues due to northeasterly swell combining
with northerly winds. Marine conditions will gradually lessen as the
week goes on but could become elevated once again this weekend as
the next frontal boundary approaches the region.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
A high risk of rip currents continues for all Atlantic beaches today
and will likely continue through the remainder of the week.
There could also be higher than normal high tides over the coming
cycles with some areas approaching some minor impact levels which
could see some minor flooding of beaches, docks, piers, and other
vulnerable low-lying coastal areas at the times of high tide.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the upper
30s to low 40s across southwestern Florida today. With dry fuels,
low relative humidity, and the lack of widespread notable rainfall
over the last several weeks, conditions may be conducive for
additional wildfire development. Relative humidity values in the mid
to upper 30s will be possible on Thursday afternoon before moisture
increases across the region on Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 63 76 67 80 / 10 0 0 0
West Kendall 60 78 62 82 / 10 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 63 77 64 81 / 10 0 0 0
Homestead 60 77 63 80 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 64 74 67 80 / 10 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 63 74 66 80 / 10 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 63 77 64 82 / 10 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 62 74 63 80 / 10 0 0 0
Boca Raton 63 76 66 81 / 10 0 0 0
Naples 56 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Simmons
AVIATION...CMF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
629 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Made a few adjustments to the forecast based on the latest
guidance and trends. Adjusted temperatures for this evening
through tomorrow. Temperatures this evening will remain pleasant,
with cold air advection moving across the Plains behind a cold
front. The cold front looks to arrive on the Palmer Divide by late
evening, then drop south across the Plains through 5 AM.
Precipitation should fill in quickly behind the front, initially
rain, transitions to snow through morning. Temperatures tomorrow
will likely remain steady in the upper 20s to low 30s for much of
the area. POP grids looked good for the most part. The main
adjustment was upgrading the Winter Weather Advisory for zone 67
to a Winter Storm Warning for Thursday. Easterly winds will fill
in across the San Luis Valley tomorrow, producing upslope flow
along the western edge of the valley. This will likely lead to
higher snowfall totals along the western edge of the valley. Also
increased wind across the Plains for tomorrow. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023
...Winter Weather highlights remain in place over much of the high
country through tomorrow night...
Currently..
Lee cyclogenesis is developing over east central Colorado, bringing
gusty southwesterly winds to southern Colorado. Abundant cloud cover
and mid-level moisture is streaming in from our southwest, but
surface relative humidity values have still fallen into the teens
for most of our plains locations thanks to downsloping winds.
Expecting to continue to see spotty near critical fire weather
conditions over our mountain adjacent locations for the next couple
of hours, before relative humidity values start to recover near
sunset.
Rest of Tonight..
For the plains..High res model guidance is still showing a decent
amount of certainty with a cold front passing through later tonight.
Trended towards the slightly faster HRRR with this package, which
brings to front through Colorado Springs around 9pm to 10pm, and
through Pueblo by around 11pm to midnight. Breezy northerly winds
are expected behind the front, and will likely persist through much
of tomorrow as well.
For the high country..Moderate to heavy snow showers continue
through the overnight hours, with highest snowfall amounts still
expected to occur over our San Juans and the Sangre De Cristos.
These areas will see very heavy snowfall rates overnight tonight,
with over a foot of new snow expected overnight for the San Juans.
Heavy snow and winds gusting up to 50 mph will likely lead to
dangerous travel conditions in our mountains tonight, especially
through mountain passes.
Tomorrow..
As the trough axis approaches through tomorrow morning, heaviest
snowfall rates shift eastward. Our eastern mountains should expect
heaviest snow between 6am and noon tomorrow, when over a foot of new
snow is expected for the Sangres. Advisories were also added for the
San Luis Valley and Teller county with this package, with new
expected snowfall totals coming up to 4 to 8 inches for both
locations. Strong northerly downsloping winds continue across El
Paso county throughout the day tomorrow, which should help to
improve conditions through tomorrow afternoon. As our winds shift
northeasterly by late morning, upslope favored locations to include
southwestern Pueblo county and portions of Huerfano and Las Animas
counties could see some moderate to heavy at times snowfall rates,
especially if convective showers begin to look more likely.
Currently seeing about 50 J/kg of CAPE for these areas through the
early afternoon hours of tomorrow.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Key Messages:
1) Focus of heavier snow shifts south into the east slopes of the
southern mountains and the San Luis Valley Thursday evening.
2) Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week, with
below normal temperatures through the weekend and a warm up into
early next week.
Thursday night-Friday night...Latest model guidance in agreement
of secondary energy digging down the backside of passing trough
across the Rockies, which combined with easterly low level upslope
will keep moderate to at times heavy snow, ongoing across the eastern
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and eastern San Juan Mtns, as well
as across the San Luis Valley, especially the eastern and western
portions closest to the higher terrain, late Thursday afternoon and
evening before slowly diminishing into early Friday morning. With
that said, current warnings and advisories for the southern mts and
and San Luis Valley continue through early Friday morning, with
another 3-6 inches possible across the higher terrain, with another
1-3 inches possible for the SLV. Moderate northwest flow aloft progged
to continue through Friday night, and with steep lapse rates and
easterly low level upslope, should see scattered snow showers
developing over and near the higher terrain Friday afternoon into
the early evening, with more spotty accumulations of a couple of
inches possible, mainly over the higher terrain. Temperatures to
remain below seasonal levels, with highs mainly in the 30s across the
lower elevations and in the teens and 20s across the higher terrain,
with lows in the teens and 20s across the lower elevations and mainly
in the single digits across the higher terrain.
Saturday-Sunday...Moderate and cool northwest flow aloft progged to
continue through the weekend, with models indicating another embedded
wave to move across the Rockies through the day Saturday and into
Saturday night. This will keep scattered to numerous snow showers
in the forecast across the higher terrain on Saturday, with scattered
showers spreading out across the immediate adjacent plains and out
across the far southeast plains Saturday afternoon and evening. On
Sunday, the best coverage of showers looks to be across the higher
terrain of the ContDvd. Temperatures to warm slightly through the
weekend, but still look to be below normal mainly in the 30s and
40s across the lower elevations, and in the 20s to lower 30s across
the higher terrain.
Monday-Wednesday...Flow aloft transitions to more west to southwest
on Monday, with increasing southwest flow aloft expected on Tuesday
and Wednesday ahead of another system moving across the Rockies later
Wednesday and Thursday. With moisture and embedded short waves within
the flow, there will be good chances of precipitation across the higher
terrain, especially along and west of the ContDvd, through the middle
of next week. Further east, a warming and drying trend is expected
through early next week, before the next passing system sometime
later Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 328 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023
At KALS..VFR conditions are expected through the rest of this
evening. An approaching system will bring vicinity showers and MVFR
ceilings over station after 07Z, with snow showers moving on station
around the same time. IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected by
around 12Z tomorrow morning and will likely persist into tomorrow
afternoon.
At KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the rest of
this evening. Overnight, a cold front is expected to push through
both stations. Winds are expected to gust up to 30kt with its
passage, which looks to occur between 03Z and 06Z tonight. Behind
the boundary, snow showers look to push off of the terrain and move
over station by around 10Z to 12Z tomorrow morning. MVFR ceilings
and visibilities are expected around the same timeframe, but should
begin to clear out by around 18Z at the latest, given the strong
downsloping northerly wind component that looks to persist through
tomorrow.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Thursday for COZ058-059-
061.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Thursday for COZ060.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT
Thursday for COZ062-063.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT Thursday night for
COZ065-066.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
night for COZ067.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Thursday night for
COZ068.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to midnight MDT
Thursday night for COZ069>071.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM MDT Friday for COZ072-074.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM MDT Friday for COZ073-075.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight MDT
Thursday night for COZ076>078.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM MDT Friday
for COZ079-080-087.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT
Thursday for COZ081-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
901 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 840 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Considerable mid and high clouds continue to stream across the
area this evening with a deck of lower clouds evident in surface
observations and satellite imagery spreading north across
southeast Oklahoma with a remnant patch of stratocu moving into
northwest Arkansas. Earlier wind advisory for Pawnee and Osage
counties was allowed to expire though south-southeasterly winds
remain gusty this evening and will continue overnight with speeds
in excess of 30 mph expected west of US 75 and across the ridge
tops in southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Tweaked temperatures in a few locations overnight to account for
current trends otherwise expect most areas to remain nearly
steady or drop a few degrees given the cloud cover and breezy
conditions. Latest guidance available so far continues to show
scattered showers developing overnight across eastern Oklahoma
therefore kept mention in forecast along with low thunder probs
generally west of a Tulsa to Stigler line.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
As the low level jet continues through Thursday morning,
additional showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in the
stronger WAA regime. Elevated instability remains somewhat
marginal, however a few storms could be strong by late Thursday
morning, producing hail.
Main severe threat will be Thursday afternoon through the early
evening hours as upper level storm system and accompanying cold
front sweeps through the area. Low level moisture will continue to
surge north tonight into Thursday with forecast dew-points climbing
into the lower 60s across far southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon.
HRRR seems a little too aggressive with lifting deeper moisture
into northeast Oklahoma ahead frontal boundary and better surface
based instability should be mainly confined to southeast Oklahoma.
As cold front and dry line move into south-central Oklahoma, near
the Red River Thursday afternoon, a few discrete supercells will
be possible near the triple point. This activity may approach our
far southeast Oklahoma counties before transitioning to a more
linear/damaging wind threat. Any storms that can remain discrete
and develop ahead of frontal boundary would have the potential for
more significant severe weather. Also, any tornado threat will
likely be confined to far southeast Oklahoma. Line of storms will
be increasingly undercut as cold front sweeps through the remainder
of the area by mid evening with the severe threat ending. Any
lingering rain that transitions to wintry precip should primarily
stay north of the area across southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri.
Significantly colder conditions expected behind the front with wind
chills falling into the upper teens across far NE OK/NW AR by
Friday morning. Winds should slowly subside Friday afternoon with
light winds Friday night. A secondary surge of arctic air is
forecast to push through the area Saturday into Sunday with a hard
freeze likely Sunday morning as high pressure continues to build
into the region. High temperatures on Sunday may only climb into
the lower to mid 40s across far NE OK/NW AR, which would be 15 to
20 degrees below normal. Slow warming trend expected into the
early part of next week but still unseasonably cool.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023
Gusty southerly winds will continue through the night at most
sites, though some of the gusts should lessen a bit as the sun
goes down this evening. Still, gusts over 20 knots will be common,
especially across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. MVFR
cigs will begin to filter into the area tonight as moisture
returns ahead of the next storm system/cold front. Scattered
showers could also develop late tonight and tomorrow morning
within the warm advection moisture return zone. A cold front will
move into northeast Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon serving as the
focal point for thunderstorm development and a switch to gusty
northerly winds late in the period. Chances for thunderstorms
will increase by mid to late afternoon, with the highest chances
across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 56 63 29 50 / 20 100 30 0
FSM 49 64 34 50 / 10 100 70 0
MLC 56 65 31 50 / 20 100 40 0
BVO 53 63 26 50 / 20 100 30 0
FYV 47 61 27 48 / 10 100 70 0
BYV 47 60 27 45 / 0 90 80 0
MKO 51 63 30 48 / 20 100 40 0
MIO 51 60 26 46 / 10 100 60 0
F10 56 65 30 49 / 20 100 30 0
HHW 55 68 34 50 / 20 100 50 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...04