Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/16/23

National Weather Service Bismarck ND
934 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 926 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Several bands of light to moderate snow continue to move through central North Dakota this evening. A report north of Bismarck depicted very low visibility in snow, within the transient band currently moving through the Morton/Burleigh county area. Though periods of heavier are possible in the very short-term, these rates should trend down in coverage through the evening as previously discussed and accumulations are expected to remain light. UPDATE Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 A band of 700mb frontogenesis was depicted over north central North Dakota this evening by RAP guidance, coinciding with moderate snowfall rates over northern North Dakota this evening. Snowfall rates are aided by divergence aloft driven by a jet streak over the Dakotas, which should lift north and cut off coupling with a lower level baroclinic zone that will shift south. This should diminish the chances for heavier snowfall rates this evening, as light snow spreads south through the night. Previous forecast of 1 to 3 inches looks reasonable across western and central North Dakota, with lighter amounts south of the Interstate. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 The main forecast issue in the short term period will be ongoing snow north and snow chances central and south later today and tonight, along with mixed precipitation. Areas of snow continue over the north west and north central. The band of light precipitation that moved through the south this morning has exited to the east, with mostly cloudy skies south, and even some sunshine. Good synoptic scale forcing and some FG forcing in the north this afternoon, and beginning to slide into the central early this evening, before dissipating, may result in a few bands of heavier snow in the northern third of the CWA through early evening. The entire band will propagate south through the night, ending over the JRV early Thursday morning. Latest storm total snowfall that includes this afternoon indicates a good swath of 1.5 to 3 inches from roughly the Highway 2 corridor to the Highway 200 corridor, tapering to around an inch northward to the International Border and tapering off to the south around an inch along the I-94 corridor and less than an inch over the southern JRV. Forecast soundings across the south are not overly favorable for mixed precipitation, but a brief period of light mixed precipitation can not be ruled out along the leading edge of the precipitation shield as it progresses southward through southern ND late this afternoon and this evening. NBM has been consistent in keeping a slight chance of mixed precip along and south of the I-94 corridor through early evening and see no reason to drop it at this time. Winds will increase tonight and Thursday as the surface low currently around the Black Hills tracks east across SD and into southern Minnesota by Thursday morning. Patchy blowing snow will be the result tonight across the forecast area, and is expected to continue through the day Thursday over eastern portions of central ND. Overnight lows tonight are expected to be in the single digits to mid teens, with highs Thursday in the mid teens to upper 20s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Cold temperatures highlight the extended forecast period over the weekend with some moderation in temperatures early next week. After this current system exits to the east, a large upper level trough develops over the central and eastern U.S. with the closed upper low situated over the Great Lakes Friday and exiting to the northeast U.S. through the weekend. A piece of energy dropping south through the developing upper trough Thursday into Friday is expected to track south across western and central ND, providing the support for scattered snow showers. We mentioned this yesterday and the NBM is finally starting to pick up on this with a small area of slight chance pops in the west. We expanded this area a bit, but impacts at this time look minimal. The main story Thursday night, through the weekend will be the unseasonably cold temperatures. Normal highs are around 40 and normal low in the upper teens for Bismarck. We are currently looking at highs in the Teens Friday and Saturday, with lows Friday night and Saturday night below zero. Potentially 5 to 10 below zero early Sunday morning. The far southwest will be a little warmer, but still well below normal. Temperatures remain below normal, but do moderate early next week with little in the way of precipitation chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 MVFR-IFR cigs and vsbys through the first portion of the 00Z TAF period. Widespread MVFR-IFR cigs will persist tonight, with some gradual improvement from the northwest as the current system exits. Light snow will spread into southern North Dakota overnight, reducing visibilities at times, then tapering off by 12Z. 15 to 25 kt winds are expected across the south, central, and east through the TAF period, with gusts to 35 kts in the central and east during the day Thursday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...AE SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...AE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
928 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through Thursday, then move offshore. A cold front will pass through Friday night into Saturday morning, followed by cool high pressure into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Temperatures are dropping quickly under clear skies and light winds. 16/0115z observations already show temperatures in the mid-upper 30s in parts of the Francis Marion National Forest with Huger at 35, Witherbee RAWS at 38, Shulerville at 38 and the Wambaw RAWS at 39. Prime radiational conditions will be in place tonight as surface high pressure shifts over the area. The current Freeze Warning will remain unchanged for now, but concerns remain that parts of the warning area, especially for the Georgia coastal zones, may not quite reach freezing. RAP forecast soundings at 16/12z still show the lowest 1000 ft averaging about 4-10 degree warmer than what was measured by the 15/12z KCHS raob this morning. This could be enough to keep temperatures at or just above freezing across the coastal zones as daybreak approaches which is suggested by a number of statistical and gridded guidance members. For now, the current thinking is that the radiational component will win out given the very dry airmass in place, but both model and observational trends will be monitored. In addition to temperatures at or near freezing, widespread to areas of frost are expected to develop away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday: Aloft, a ridge of high pressure will extend across the East CONUS, leading to height rises locally. At the sfc, high pressure centered across the Carolinas will slowly slide offshore, favoring a light southerly wind across the local area by late day. Mostly sunny skies in combination with deep layered high pressure across the area will lead to warmer conditions than the previous day, with highs generally in the upper 60s/lower 70s, except cooler near the beaches. Despite only a few clouds overnight, a light southerly wind should help maintain noticeably warmer temps than the previous night, with lows generally ranging in the mid 40s well inland to low/mid 50s closer to the coast. Friday and Saturday: The axis of a mid-lvl ridge will extend across the Southeast to start off the weekend, then shift offshore as a broad trough shifts across the Central United States and to the Northeast. The trough will help force a sfc cold front across the Southeast United States, eventually reaching the local area Friday night, then passing offshore Saturday morning. Ahead of the front, a southerly flow will drive warmer temps into the region, favoring afternoon highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees away from the coast (warmest across southeast Georgia). This should aid in low-lvl mixing into enhanced wind fields, suggesting Friday will experience gusty wind conditions across much of the area, including across Lake Moultrie (around 25 mph). As the front approaches, chances of precip will increase, starting across inland areas late Friday. However, the bulk of rain/showers should occur Friday night into early Saturday when maximum forcing associated with the front occurs. There is even some hint at marginal instability across part of the area during fropa, suggesting a few thunderstorms across southeast Georgia Friday night into Saturday. Once fropa occurs, cold air advection across the region and building high pressure from the west- northwest will lead to a drying/cooling trend Saturday afternoon. High temps will be noticeably cooler than the previous day, generally ranging in the low-mid 60s (warmest along the coast). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The main energy associated with the mid-level trough to our north will move offshore Sunday. A very broad trough looks to be over most of the U.S. Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will approach our region on Sunday, bringing us dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The High will then pass to our north on Monday. Meanwhile, a Gulf Low pressure system could bring showers to our area Monday night into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 17/00z. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through Friday afternoon. Additionally, winds will be gusty Friday afternoon, around 25 kt at times at all terminals. Tempo flight restrictions are possible Friday night into late Saturday morning as lower cigs and showers arrive with a passing cold front. VFR conditions should then return at all terminals Saturday afternoon and persist into Monday next week. && .MARINE... Tonight: Winds and seas will continue to diminish through tonight as high pressure builds over the area. Thursday: High pressure centered across the Southeast United States will trend offshore during the evening and overnight period. The pattern should favor a light wind during the morning, then an increasing southerly wind late day and night as the pressure gradient tightens across local waters well ahead of a cold front advancing across the Deep South. Seas will also build overnight, but conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels during the period. Friday and Saturday: The pressure gradient will strengthen further as a cold front approaches the Southeast early weekend, then shifts offshore Friday night into Saturday morning. Strong and gusty southerly winds will increase, and wind-driven seas will quickly build. All of the ocean waters, including the Charleston Harbor will likely need Small Craft Advisories by Friday afternoon. We could even see gale force wind gusts across northern South Carolina waters and maybe the offshore Georgia waters Friday night. Gale Warnings could eventually be needed for these locations. Behind the front, cold air advection associated with an approaching sfc high doesn`t appear to be too strong across the local waters. If this occurs, conditions should improve enough that most marine headlines could expire Saturday late afternoon. But a surge in winds is expected Saturday night, with the strongest winds across offshore Georgia waters, so small craft advisory level conditions could persist. Sunday: High pressure will build across the region. Winds/seas are expected to lower during the day, followed by another surge in winds overnight. However, conditions should remain just below small craft advisory levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure moving across the region will bring dry conditions. RH values are expected to drop into the lower 20s across inland locations Thursday afternoon. However, winds won`t be particularly gusty. Therefore, we do not plan on issuing any Fire Danger Statements. && .EQUIPMENT... The KCLX WSR-88D remains out of service for the Service Life Extension Project. It is expected to be powered up later today for a 24-hour test period. It will need to be taken back down on Thursday to perform a final inspection. If no issues are found, the radar should be back in service by late Thursday. During the downtime, adjacent radars will be available, including: Columbia, SC (KCAE); Robbins AFB (KJGX); Moody AFB (KVAX); Jacksonville, FL (KJAX); and Wilmington, NC (KLTX). && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for SCZ040- 042>045-047>052. MARINE...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
756 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion and Evening Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 743 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 More diurnal mixing occurring than initially forecast so adjusted dewpoints down across majority of the area through the rest of tonight, resulting in lower RH values. CAMs having the usual hard time in light wind mix environment, so went with equal blend mix of NBM10pct, CONS, and HRRR and manual smoothing. In addition, temps have trended upward across central Georgia with latest model guidance, into the mid 30s. However, could potentially seeing freezing conditions over the area and with start of growing season underway, opted to continue Freeze Warning across the area. Morgan && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 High pressure ridge currently centered over TN/AL/GA is expected to keep things dry through Thu night. This ridge will gradually move southeast pushing off the FL/GA/SC coast by Thu evening. Another chilly morning is expected Thursday, with lows forecast to be in the upper 20s across the N GA mountains to mid 30s across central Georgia. Due to this, have upgraded the Freeze Watch for tonight to a freeze warning. With light winds, clear skies, and near- freezing temperatures, areas of frost will be possible Tonight. With clear skies continuing and temperatures moderating underneath the ridge Thu afternoon, highs will increase into the mid 60s to low 70s. In spite of slowly recovering dewpoints, the increasing temperatures will allow RH values to drop below fire danger thresholds once again, which will warrant the need for another Fire Danger Statement Thursday afternoon and evening. The axis of the upper ridge will clear Georgia to the east late in the day Thursday, at which point southwesterly upper flow will begin as an upper trough digs southward into the Mississippi River Valley. As this ridge pushes off shore it will allow next frontal system to move into NW GA Thu night/Fri morning. Will see southerly winds increase ahead of this cold front with showers and isolated thunderstorms moving NW to SE across the state Friday. 01 && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 The extended period begins active with a deep trough centered over the upper MS valley and a cold front on our doorstep as energy rotates into the trof from the southern stream which extends back across the across SW TX/Mexico and into the Pacific. The southern stream is forecast to phase with the upper Midwest trof by late Friday across the Great Lakes Region. In our neck of the woods, surface ridge off the east coast will help to begin the process of WAA ahead of the approaching front, however quite a bit of airmass recovery is needed to get the region to a level sufficient to support anything more than rain/showers. While shear values will be sufficient to raise concerns for severe, most of the main energy will remain north of the region and thus, like the last several fronts, the dynamics are not aligned with the frontal forcing. Additionally, SREF ensembles are not too keen on much if any destabilization on Friday ahead of the front. Mean CAPE values ranging less than 100J/KG up to the I20 corridor in addition to mid level lapse rates at or under 5 deg/km don`t exactly boost confidence in seeing much if any thunder much less severe. Model soundings reflect a moderate to occasionally heavy rain associated with the front as it swings through during the day Friday. SPC has introduced a marginal risk for storms across southern GA which touches a couple counties across the southern portion of our area so the risk isn`t nil, but it is low. Behind the Friday front, a fairly strong arctic surface ridge sinks into the center of the country and takes control. Freeze warnings will likely be needed as early as Saturday AM, definitely Sunday and possibly Monday as temps again drop to and below freezing for much of the area. Dewpoints in the teens or lower on tap by sunday afternoon may introduce some fire weather concerns as well depending on how much rain falls on Friday. Models diverge a bit by Monday as energy impacting the west coast this weekend works eastward into the southern plains. The cold arctic high from the weekend works east and bridges across the Appalachians by Monday putting us into a classic wedge situation across North and NE GA while energy aloft works through the flow. The GFS and some of the GEFS members are hinting at a gulf coast low developing along the baroclinic zone near the coast associated with short wave energy working through the flow by late Monday. Enough of the members agree to put a low in the mean sfc pattern in the GOM and beginning its track NE toward NE Florida by Tue pm. But it remains to be seen if this plays out as both the EC and Canadian members are less gung ho regarding any sfc low development. Because of the uncertainty and the spread in the models, POPs Monday night and Tue only peak at around 30 pct..and at this time are all rain. 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light and VRB winds expected overnight, with predominate direction from the SE/SSE by 10-14z. Winds continue to increase and hover around due S through the afternoon, between 7-10kts. Winds should go SW/SSW and remain after 05z tomorrow night. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium to high confidence on winds. High confidence on all other elements. Morgan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 33 67 47 66 / 0 0 30 90 Atlanta 36 67 51 66 / 0 0 50 90 Blairsville 31 62 44 59 / 0 0 70 100 Cartersville 31 67 50 66 / 0 0 70 100 Columbus 36 71 52 73 / 0 0 20 90 Gainesville 34 65 47 64 / 0 0 60 90 Macon 34 69 49 74 / 0 0 10 70 Rome 31 68 50 66 / 0 0 70 100 Peachtree City 33 68 50 69 / 0 0 40 90 Vidalia 36 70 50 77 / 0 0 10 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ001>009- 011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098- 102>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...Morgan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Hopefully you are able to spend at least a little time outside today. Temperatures are warming into the 70s with a southeasterly breeze. Most areas are experiencing mostly sunny skies. The real story in the short term is tomorrow`s storm system. So let`s dive right into it! A mid/upper trough is currently digging southward over the Intermountain West. The trough is represented nicely via RAP 500 MB analysis and is easily seen on water vapor imagery. This trough will continue to propagate eastward, inducing a lee side surface trough over the central plains by tomorrow morning. This will consolidate into a low pressure system that will quickly move northeastward towards the Great Lakes as it strengthens. Meanwhile, an associated strong cold front will push southward across Texas, reaching our CWA late Thursday night into early Friday morning. More on that front later because the weather becomes interesting well ahead of the front. Wind shear over southeast Texas will increase on Thursday as the trough digs southward over the central CONUS. The 500 MB jet max appears as if it will remain north of our region, though our northern counties will certainly be closer to that maximum. The shear looks more interesting at the mid and lower levels. HREF ensemble 850 MB winds suggest a 40-50 knot low level jet will track over our region tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Those same ensembles show the shear peaking over 50 knots for our northern counties while closer to 30-35 knots at the coast. SREF shear probabilities indicate a near 100 percent chance of at least 30 knot 0-6KM bulk shear for the entire CWA with a 90 percent chance of at least 40 knot bulk shear north of I-10 and 70-90 percent south of I- 10. NAM forecast soundings are telling a similar story. If the current forecast soundings have their way, SFC-1KM shear will be exceeding 20 knots and possibly approach 30 knots by tomorrow afternoon. The steepening surface pressure gradient will increase southerly winds which will enhance WAA and moisture transport. HREF ensembles suggest PWs could approach 2.0 inches with widespread 1.4-1.6 inch values. Meanwhile, there remains good consensus of 1500-2500 J/kg CAPE. There are also appears to be a mid/upper shortwave over northern Mexico that will move across the Lone Star State tomorrow further enhancing upward motion. However, not every atmospheric parameter will favor thunderstorms. There will be a cap over our southern counties, particularly south of I-10. This cap isn`t expected to be as strong as some recent caps that spared our southern counties and coast from storms. Plus, it will erode with time. However, forecast soundings suggest that the cap could remain stout enough to limit the atmosphere`s convective potential south of I-10. The convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center continues to indicate a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms for all but the coastal portions of our CWA. Coastal areas are under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). So how do we think tomorrow will play out? Scattered shower activity could develop over our northern and western counties as early as tomorrow morning. We cannot even rule out an isolated thunderstorm in our northwest / Brazos Valley counties as early as the morning hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage (particularly north of I-10), tomorrow afternoon as shear and instability increase. The aforementioned shear, instability, and moisture parameters will be favorable for all severe weather hazards (tornadoes, hail, damaging winds). ALL areas in our CWA should be weather alert tomorrow. That being said, the most favorable environment for severe thunderstorms will be over the northern half of the CWA. So what about the front? The cold front will push through our region late Thursday night into early Friday morning. An associated line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact the region as the front passes. The primary concern from these storms is wind. Robust CAA in the front`s wake will bring much colder temperatures to southeast Texas. More on those cooler temps in the long term below. Self && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 In the wake of the strong cold front (moving through SE TX Thurs night and into the coastal waters early Fri morning), colder and quieter weather to prevail across the region from Fri on through the weekend. While rain chances should be ending for most of the CWA (except the southern counties/coast), lingering clouds along with strong gusty N/NW winds should keep daytime temperatures in the 50s for much of Fri. Some brief clearing is possible by late Fri afternoon/evening, but a persistent SW upper flow pattern is expected to remain in place and likely keep skies mostly cloudy/ cloudy through the weekend. And even with a offshore winds slow- ly weakening, temperatures should remain on the cool side on Sat and Sun. Highs are forecast to be in the 50s with lows mostly in the 40s (but upper 30s possible for our northern counties(!!)). Rain chances to return by late Sun on into Mon with the develop- mentof a surface coastal trough (near/around the Lower to Middle TX coasts) which will help keep cool/cloudy weather in place for SE TX. As this system moves out to the east, look for the return of onshore winds and warming temperatures by Tue (and especially on Weds). 41 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 VFR conditions and breezy southeasterly winds will continue through the evening hours with winds trending slightly downward to around 10-12 knots. Cloud cover gradually increases from generally northwest to southeast overnight with northern sites seeing an earlier bout of MVFR ceilings. Scattered SHRA will also develop in the Brazos Valley around 15Z as well. Look for wind speeds to increase at all area sites around 15Z-16Z with southerly/southeasterly winds around 15-18 knots with gusts near or over 25 knots especially in the late afternoon hours. SHRA coverage expands further southward going into the afternoon along with lower cloud ceilings. There remains some uncertainty on if the breezy winds will keep things mixed enough to prevent MVFR ceilings in the afternoon for sites near and south of I-10. Nevertheless, there will be a downward trend in ceilings going into the late afternoon and evening hours as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Generally moderate to strong SE winds will prevail across the bays and coastal waters will be extending the current SCEC and SCA configuration through Thur morning. At that time, will ex- pect winds to further increase and have tweaked the SCA to include all of the coastal waters and Matagorda Bay for tomorrow. The High Rip Current Risk was also extended through tomorrow evening. Models remain on track with the timing of the strong cold front as we head into tomorrow night through early Fri morning. Very strong and gusty N/NE winds to develop in the wake of this front and have issued a Gale Watch for our coastal waters for Fri into Fri night. This watch could be extended into Sat morning and perhaps upgraded to a Gale Warning before it is all said and done. Another issue to keep an eye on could be well below normal low water levels on Fri. While the offshore winds should be decreasing by Sat, seas may re- main elevated through the upcoming weekend (...especially over the offshore waters). 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 59 76 43 53 / 0 80 90 10 Houston (IAH) 61 78 48 56 / 0 60 100 40 Galveston (GLS) 65 76 53 64 / 0 20 90 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday morning for GMZ330-350-355. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ330- 350-355. Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for GMZ330-350-355-370-375. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday evening for GMZ335. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Self LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...41
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Temps have warmed nicely this afternoon, mid 60s to mid 70s, as cloud cover has cleared most of the area. The last hold out is across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle where temps are still in the upper 50s to low 60s. The upper trough currently over California/Nevada will continue pushing eastward through the night before reaching eastern New Mexico by sunrise. Models are mostly dry overnight as the upper trough approaches from the west. Only convective models such as the HRRR show the potential for any precip tonight into the early morning, but the likelihood is extremely low give continue dry southeasterly surface flow and would result in just virga showers. The southwesterly surface flow will keep temps fairly warm overnight in the upper 40s across our northern zones to near 60 across the southern Rolling Plains. A cold front will surge southward from the Northern Plains tomorrow as the axis of the upper trough begins to approach the FA. Currently models place the timing of the FROPA into the FA in the late morning/early afternoon with full passage by sunset. Ultimately the timing of the front will determine high temps for the afternoon with an earlier FROPA resulting in cooler highs. Currently the forecast will reflect highs ranging from the upper 50s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to the mid 70s across the southern Rolling Plains. Some precip does appear to be possible, but the best chances will likely be limited to our northern zones along the passing cold front. Conditions will continue to be dry ahead of the approaching cold front thanks to downsloping winds with little to no moisture available for shower development. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 An extended period of cold temperatures remains in store through the weekend and into early as next week as tomorrow`s cold front is followed by a reinforcing shot of cold air mid-weekend as a deep upper level low rotates southeastward from the Canadian Prairies on Thursday to the Great Lakes by the start of the day Saturday and then as the low`s trailing trough sags southward over the central Plains. Low amplitude southern stream energy is then progged to move along the US-Mexico border, potentially bringing some light precipitation to the forecast area. However, the model trends are now toward an overall drier solution, or at least less overall precipitation as precip potential is running into proverbial headwinds in the form of dry sub-cloud layer, modest mid-level moisture, and generally confluent flow where the southern stream merges into the lingering broad northern stream trough. NBM still has a few periods of solid chance PoPs through this period, peaking Sunday night and Monday, but this is down from high chance/likely categories. Given the negatives mentioned above, this trend appears to be a good one. Temperatures through the period are showing good continuity with the coldest temperatures expected to be Sunday with the second push of cold air from the north, followed by Monday when cloud cover, and possibly precipitation, should limit the upward potential. Rapid warming Tuesday and Wednesday is expected as the trough over the Plains is replaced by a ridge and surface to low levels begin to experience pressure/height falls in response to an upper heading toward the Intermountain West. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Breezy to windy conditions are expected through the period at all three TAF sites with southwest winds turning to the north late tomorrow morning and afternoon with a passing cold front. Light scattered rain showers are possible at KCDS tomorrow afternoon for a few hours. Ceilings may drop to MVFR tomorrow following the frontal boundary at KCDS/KPVW towards the end of the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
732 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 720 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Latest RAP analysis shows that the shortwave is pushing east of the area this evening which has brought an end to the precip across South FL. Generally clearing skies overnight with some SCT Cu remaining across the metro. Lowered dewpoints a bit over the interior towards the Gulf coast tomorrow afternoon. With the prevailing easterly flow tomorrow, expect that min RH values over portions of interior Collier and Hendry counties will have no problem falling into the mid and upper 30s during the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Northerly flow behind our recent frontal passage has begun to veer more north-northeast this afternoon has upper level high pressure begins to build back into the Southeast. A strong noreaster is pushing northeast away from the New England states while a weak shortwave is zipping around the periphery of this system across the Florida peninsula. The presence of this feature could act to enhance ascent locally, just enough to support the development of a few isolated to scattered showers across our area as it passes from northwest to southeast across the region through the remainder of the evening. Beyond sunset today, a significantly drier airmass aloft is ushered in behind the shortwave and this should swiftly knock out any shower chances beyond nightfall tonight. Cloud cover and prolonged northerly flow has led to afternoon highs barely breaking 80 degrees today. Expect low temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s for coastal areas and low 50s for interior areas. Tomorrow, north-northeast flow will continue to advect a drier airmass across the region, but will begin to veer more easterly by the afternoon hours as high pressure strengthens across the Southeast. This will result in a chilly morning compared to the last several weeks with minimum temperatures on Thursday morning ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s near Lake Okeechobee, mid 50s along the Gulf coast, and upper 50s to low 60s across the East coast metro areas. A temperature gradient will occur across the region during the afternoon hours, as onshore northeasterly flow acts to keep the eastern half of our area in the mid to upper 70s. Locations across southwestern Florida will be in the low 80s as abundant sunshine, lack of clouds, and light flow act to heat things up. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 As the large upper level ridge remains in place across the region, the end of the week will wrap up dry and mild before the arrival of a cold front. A large trough currently draped across central US will make it`s way eastward as the coastal surface high pressure off SE US moves further from the coast. The accompanying cold front will arrive in Florida on Saturday and cross the state over the weekend. It will bring a threat of widespread showers and thunderstorms across our region. The frontal boundary is forecast to stall in the vicinity of the FL Straits through the rest of the weekend into Monday which will keep the chances for precipitation in the forecast all weekend. Compared to the dry weather these past few months, higher PWATs (~1.5-2") and substantial QPF values will likely bringing wet weather. Winds will pick up with the frontal passage bringing gusts up to 20KT on Saturday. Temperatures will peak at mid-to- high 80s on Saturday. Following, temperatures will be on a cooling trend, dropping closer to seasonal, into early next week. Moving into early next week, the models remain in agreement thus bringing another system through the southeastern US states. As the front stalls in the FL straits, the next system begins to move into the Gulf and traverses towards FL. This system will bring another front with more precipitation to the region approximately on Tuesday & Tuesday night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 720 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 VFR expected through the 00Z TAF period. NE winds 10 kts or less tonight becoming easterly 10-15 kts during the day on Thursday. FEW to SCT Cu through the period with ceilings generally 3k ft and higher. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Peripheral effects of a series of low pressure systems in the northwestern Atlantic will result in bouts of northeasterly swells through the end of the work week. A Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic waters will remain in effect through this evening as elevated wave action continues due to northeasterly swell combining with northerly winds. Marine conditions will gradually lessen as the week goes on but could become elevated once again this weekend as the next frontal boundary approaches the region. && .BEACHES... Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 A high risk of rip currents continues for all Atlantic beaches today and will likely continue through the remainder of the week. There could also be higher than normal high tides over the coming cycles with some areas approaching some minor impact levels which could see some minor flooding of beaches, docks, piers, and other vulnerable low-lying coastal areas at the times of high tide. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the upper 30s to low 40s across southwestern Florida today. With dry fuels, low relative humidity, and the lack of widespread notable rainfall over the last several weeks, conditions may be conducive for additional wildfire development. Relative humidity values in the mid to upper 30s will be possible on Thursday afternoon before moisture increases across the region on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 63 76 67 80 / 10 0 0 0 West Kendall 60 78 62 82 / 10 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 63 77 64 81 / 10 0 0 0 Homestead 60 77 63 80 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 64 74 67 80 / 10 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 63 74 66 80 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 63 77 64 82 / 10 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 62 74 63 80 / 10 0 0 0 Boca Raton 63 76 66 81 / 10 0 0 0 Naples 56 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-651- 670-671. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Simmons AVIATION...CMF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
629 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 618 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Made a few adjustments to the forecast based on the latest guidance and trends. Adjusted temperatures for this evening through tomorrow. Temperatures this evening will remain pleasant, with cold air advection moving across the Plains behind a cold front. The cold front looks to arrive on the Palmer Divide by late evening, then drop south across the Plains through 5 AM. Precipitation should fill in quickly behind the front, initially rain, transitions to snow through morning. Temperatures tomorrow will likely remain steady in the upper 20s to low 30s for much of the area. POP grids looked good for the most part. The main adjustment was upgrading the Winter Weather Advisory for zone 67 to a Winter Storm Warning for Thursday. Easterly winds will fill in across the San Luis Valley tomorrow, producing upslope flow along the western edge of the valley. This will likely lead to higher snowfall totals along the western edge of the valley. Also increased wind across the Plains for tomorrow. Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 328 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023 ...Winter Weather highlights remain in place over much of the high country through tomorrow night... Currently.. Lee cyclogenesis is developing over east central Colorado, bringing gusty southwesterly winds to southern Colorado. Abundant cloud cover and mid-level moisture is streaming in from our southwest, but surface relative humidity values have still fallen into the teens for most of our plains locations thanks to downsloping winds. Expecting to continue to see spotty near critical fire weather conditions over our mountain adjacent locations for the next couple of hours, before relative humidity values start to recover near sunset. Rest of Tonight.. For the plains..High res model guidance is still showing a decent amount of certainty with a cold front passing through later tonight. Trended towards the slightly faster HRRR with this package, which brings to front through Colorado Springs around 9pm to 10pm, and through Pueblo by around 11pm to midnight. Breezy northerly winds are expected behind the front, and will likely persist through much of tomorrow as well. For the high country..Moderate to heavy snow showers continue through the overnight hours, with highest snowfall amounts still expected to occur over our San Juans and the Sangre De Cristos. These areas will see very heavy snowfall rates overnight tonight, with over a foot of new snow expected overnight for the San Juans. Heavy snow and winds gusting up to 50 mph will likely lead to dangerous travel conditions in our mountains tonight, especially through mountain passes. Tomorrow.. As the trough axis approaches through tomorrow morning, heaviest snowfall rates shift eastward. Our eastern mountains should expect heaviest snow between 6am and noon tomorrow, when over a foot of new snow is expected for the Sangres. Advisories were also added for the San Luis Valley and Teller county with this package, with new expected snowfall totals coming up to 4 to 8 inches for both locations. Strong northerly downsloping winds continue across El Paso county throughout the day tomorrow, which should help to improve conditions through tomorrow afternoon. As our winds shift northeasterly by late morning, upslope favored locations to include southwestern Pueblo county and portions of Huerfano and Las Animas counties could see some moderate to heavy at times snowfall rates, especially if convective showers begin to look more likely. Currently seeing about 50 J/kg of CAPE for these areas through the early afternoon hours of tomorrow. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Key Messages: 1) Focus of heavier snow shifts south into the east slopes of the southern mountains and the San Luis Valley Thursday evening. 2) Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week, with below normal temperatures through the weekend and a warm up into early next week. Thursday night-Friday night...Latest model guidance in agreement of secondary energy digging down the backside of passing trough across the Rockies, which combined with easterly low level upslope will keep moderate to at times heavy snow, ongoing across the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and eastern San Juan Mtns, as well as across the San Luis Valley, especially the eastern and western portions closest to the higher terrain, late Thursday afternoon and evening before slowly diminishing into early Friday morning. With that said, current warnings and advisories for the southern mts and and San Luis Valley continue through early Friday morning, with another 3-6 inches possible across the higher terrain, with another 1-3 inches possible for the SLV. Moderate northwest flow aloft progged to continue through Friday night, and with steep lapse rates and easterly low level upslope, should see scattered snow showers developing over and near the higher terrain Friday afternoon into the early evening, with more spotty accumulations of a couple of inches possible, mainly over the higher terrain. Temperatures to remain below seasonal levels, with highs mainly in the 30s across the lower elevations and in the teens and 20s across the higher terrain, with lows in the teens and 20s across the lower elevations and mainly in the single digits across the higher terrain. Saturday-Sunday...Moderate and cool northwest flow aloft progged to continue through the weekend, with models indicating another embedded wave to move across the Rockies through the day Saturday and into Saturday night. This will keep scattered to numerous snow showers in the forecast across the higher terrain on Saturday, with scattered showers spreading out across the immediate adjacent plains and out across the far southeast plains Saturday afternoon and evening. On Sunday, the best coverage of showers looks to be across the higher terrain of the ContDvd. Temperatures to warm slightly through the weekend, but still look to be below normal mainly in the 30s and 40s across the lower elevations, and in the 20s to lower 30s across the higher terrain. Monday-Wednesday...Flow aloft transitions to more west to southwest on Monday, with increasing southwest flow aloft expected on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of another system moving across the Rockies later Wednesday and Thursday. With moisture and embedded short waves within the flow, there will be good chances of precipitation across the higher terrain, especially along and west of the ContDvd, through the middle of next week. Further east, a warming and drying trend is expected through early next week, before the next passing system sometime later Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 328 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023 At KALS..VFR conditions are expected through the rest of this evening. An approaching system will bring vicinity showers and MVFR ceilings over station after 07Z, with snow showers moving on station around the same time. IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected by around 12Z tomorrow morning and will likely persist into tomorrow afternoon. At KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the rest of this evening. Overnight, a cold front is expected to push through both stations. Winds are expected to gust up to 30kt with its passage, which looks to occur between 03Z and 06Z tonight. Behind the boundary, snow showers look to push off of the terrain and move over station by around 10Z to 12Z tomorrow morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected around the same timeframe, but should begin to clear out by around 18Z at the latest, given the strong downsloping northerly wind component that looks to persist through tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Thursday for COZ058-059- 061. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Thursday for COZ060. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Thursday for COZ062-063. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT Thursday night for COZ065-066. Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night for COZ067. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Thursday night for COZ068. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night for COZ069>071. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM MDT Friday for COZ072-074. Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM MDT Friday for COZ073-075. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Thursday night for COZ076>078. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM MDT Friday for COZ079-080-087. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT Thursday for COZ081-082. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...EHR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
901 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 840 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Considerable mid and high clouds continue to stream across the area this evening with a deck of lower clouds evident in surface observations and satellite imagery spreading north across southeast Oklahoma with a remnant patch of stratocu moving into northwest Arkansas. Earlier wind advisory for Pawnee and Osage counties was allowed to expire though south-southeasterly winds remain gusty this evening and will continue overnight with speeds in excess of 30 mph expected west of US 75 and across the ridge tops in southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Tweaked temperatures in a few locations overnight to account for current trends otherwise expect most areas to remain nearly steady or drop a few degrees given the cloud cover and breezy conditions. Latest guidance available so far continues to show scattered showers developing overnight across eastern Oklahoma therefore kept mention in forecast along with low thunder probs generally west of a Tulsa to Stigler line. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 As the low level jet continues through Thursday morning, additional showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in the stronger WAA regime. Elevated instability remains somewhat marginal, however a few storms could be strong by late Thursday morning, producing hail. Main severe threat will be Thursday afternoon through the early evening hours as upper level storm system and accompanying cold front sweeps through the area. Low level moisture will continue to surge north tonight into Thursday with forecast dew-points climbing into the lower 60s across far southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon. HRRR seems a little too aggressive with lifting deeper moisture into northeast Oklahoma ahead frontal boundary and better surface based instability should be mainly confined to southeast Oklahoma. As cold front and dry line move into south-central Oklahoma, near the Red River Thursday afternoon, a few discrete supercells will be possible near the triple point. This activity may approach our far southeast Oklahoma counties before transitioning to a more linear/damaging wind threat. Any storms that can remain discrete and develop ahead of frontal boundary would have the potential for more significant severe weather. Also, any tornado threat will likely be confined to far southeast Oklahoma. Line of storms will be increasingly undercut as cold front sweeps through the remainder of the area by mid evening with the severe threat ending. Any lingering rain that transitions to wintry precip should primarily stay north of the area across southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri. Significantly colder conditions expected behind the front with wind chills falling into the upper teens across far NE OK/NW AR by Friday morning. Winds should slowly subside Friday afternoon with light winds Friday night. A secondary surge of arctic air is forecast to push through the area Saturday into Sunday with a hard freeze likely Sunday morning as high pressure continues to build into the region. High temperatures on Sunday may only climb into the lower to mid 40s across far NE OK/NW AR, which would be 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Slow warming trend expected into the early part of next week but still unseasonably cool. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Gusty southerly winds will continue through the night at most sites, though some of the gusts should lessen a bit as the sun goes down this evening. Still, gusts over 20 knots will be common, especially across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. MVFR cigs will begin to filter into the area tonight as moisture returns ahead of the next storm system/cold front. Scattered showers could also develop late tonight and tomorrow morning within the warm advection moisture return zone. A cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon serving as the focal point for thunderstorm development and a switch to gusty northerly winds late in the period. Chances for thunderstorms will increase by mid to late afternoon, with the highest chances across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 56 63 29 50 / 20 100 30 0 FSM 49 64 34 50 / 10 100 70 0 MLC 56 65 31 50 / 20 100 40 0 BVO 53 63 26 50 / 20 100 30 0 FYV 47 61 27 48 / 10 100 70 0 BYV 47 60 27 45 / 0 90 80 0 MKO 51 63 30 48 / 20 100 40 0 MIO 51 60 26 46 / 10 100 60 0 F10 56 65 30 49 / 20 100 30 0 HHW 55 68 34 50 / 20 100 50 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...04