Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/09/23
See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023
The main challenge in the near term revolves around a winter storm
system set to affect the region later tonight through Thursday
night. Upper level southwest flow tonight will give way to a decent
shortwave tracking across the region Thursday and Thursday night.
At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will keep conditions dry
across the entire area this evening. The ridge will get pushed back
northward overnight as a low pressure system slides off the southern
Rockies to western Kansas. The low then looks to track eastward to
southern Missouri during the day Thursday, with an inverted trough
extending from it to southern North Dakota. Snow will overspread the
area from southwest to northeast beginning late tonight, and will
continue through the day Thursday. As the surface low tracks further
to the east Thursday night, the snow will gradually come to an end
from west to east, and will be completely out of the area by 12Z
Friday. Winds will not be terribly strong with this system, but
cannot rule out some gusts of 20 to 25 mph at times, which could
still be enough to result in some blowing or drifting snow. Snow
amounts look to generally be in the 3 to 6 inch range across the
area. However, there is potential for some higher amounts along the
Coteau region, where some areas could see 7 to 9 inches of new
accumulation. Therefore, have issued a Winter Storm Warning for
Roberts, Grant and Deuel counties, and will leave the rest of the
area in a Winter Weather Advisory. Did adjust the start and end
times to better fit when the snow moves in and when it exits the
region.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower teens across
north central South Dakota, to the lower 20s across far northeastern
South Dakota and west central Minnesota. High temperatures on
Thursday will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Low temperatures
Thursday night will be in the mid teens to the lower 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023
Models continue to agree on the upper level pattern through early
Sunday morning. With the low on Sunday, the Canadian model tries to
make the trough a little more positively tilted than either the GFS
or the EC and bring in some stronger high pressure to start the
week. Towards the middle of next week, both the EC and Canadian are
starting to show a shortwave trough move across the region. We will
have a good bit of energy over the region Saturday reaching east
from the 500mb low over Canada and MT. After a ribbon of dry air
moves across the region at 700mb on Friday, lots of moist air moves
in Friday night and into Saturday with the trough moving east across
southern Canada/MT. This pattern continues down through the 850mb
layer. At 925mb, moisture stays in place through the whole period.
Snow should be coming to an end or be done by Friday morning. There
will still be some accumulating snow Friday night through late
Saturday night, mainly over northeast SD and west central MN. Models
have been trending up on the winds Friday night through Saturday.
These higher winds are expected to move west to east across the
whole area which will make blowing snow a hazard everywhere. With
that shortwave on Wednesday, it is starting to look like there is a
chance of another round of snow. That is still a ways out, so
details are limited at this point. That being said, it looks to
mostly affect areas along and east of the James River. Temperatures
remain below average.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
The vast majority of the TAF valid period, at all four terminals,
is going to be IFR (cigs). VFR visibility will drop to IFR
visibility in snow (at KPIR at or after ~09Z; at KMBG/KABR/KATY
at or after ~12Z).
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to midnight CST
Thursday night for SDZ007-011-019-020-022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5
PM MST/ Thursday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-
048-051.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for
SDZ006-018.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday
night for SDZ008-021-023.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to midnight CST
Thursday night for MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Dorn
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1001 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread clouds, blustery northwest winds, and a few lake
effect snow showers will persist for the next few days, mainly
focused over central NY. Our next chance for widespread
accumulating snowfall will be Friday into Saturday, followed by
brief high pressure to round out the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update:
The northwest flow over the Great Lakes did not cause skies to
fill back in as was previously expected. Instead satellite shows
a clearing extending down further into the NY/PA border,
therefore sky cover and pops were adjusted manually to account
for this. Clear to partly cloudy skies are now expected into the
late overnight hours. HRRR soundings suggest that skies will
fill back in after midnight. Confidence was lower that flurries
will take place tonight, so pops were reduced but a slight
chance for flurries remains over the Finger Lakes for late
tonight into tomorrow morning. The winds remained too high and
were adjusted lower again using the official forecast and the
bias corrected CONSShort.
630 PM Update:
Skies started to clear from the west and based on satellite
imagery, sky cover was updated over the next few hours with some
manual adjustments. The challenge with this is northwest flow
that remains present over the region could result in these clear
areas filling back in. A slight chance for flurries remains and
pops were shifted eastward using CONSAll and the previous
forecast. This accounted for the sky clearing towards the east
near Elmira. Winds were too high and were adjusted lower using
the official forecast and the bias corrected CONSShort.
255 PM Update:
With a persistent northwest flow, lake effect clouds continue to
be situated across the majority of the area, although partial
sunshine is present across some areas of Northeast PA, as well
as Steuben-Yates-Schuyler-Chemung counties. A few flurries are
also present across parts of the Finger Lakes Region.
More of the same is expected tonight with continued lake effect
clouds and moisture trapped in the low levels. Additional
flurries/light snow showers are possible, but snow accumulations
are not expected. With the extensive cloud cover, temperatures
are expected to be a few degrees above normal (lows mainly in
the mid to upper 20s).
More of the same is expected for Thursday, with extensive cloud
cover, especially across Central NY. Some mixing in the
afternoon may allow for partial sunshine across parts of
Northeast PA. Temperatures are expected to be similar too, with
highs mainly in the 30s.
High pressure moving in will allow for winds to diminish and
shift to a more northeasterly direction Thursday night. Skies
will remain mostly cloudy with the next system approaching the
region. Lows are expected to be in the 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
All 4 main synoptic models show a system affecting central NY and
northeast Pa from Friday afternoon to Saturday Morning. Models all
show a closed upper low level low moving across the lower Great
Lakes with associated surface low tracking across the upper Ohio
valley Friday morning. All models show a decent dynamical set up
with upper level divergence and lift associated in advance of the
upper level low moving in NY and PA Friday afternoon. Meanwhile at
low-levels there was decent warm air advection/isentropic lift at
the same time over NY and northern PA. Models also show that this
northern branch upper level feature didn`t have any moisture
connection with the Gulf of Mexico and was somewhat moisture
starved. That being said, it was cold enough aloft that the lifting
will occur in the maximum dendritic growth zone for ice crystals to
maximize snow amounts given less moisture. By the time the upper
level low reaches central Pa Friday evening, the Ohio Valley low
will be occluded out and another more moisture laden southern branch
low begins to fill the influence of this upper level Low. This
effect of this will be rapid development offshore well east of
central NY and northeast PA and snow will rapidly taper off later
Friday night and Saturday morning.
It looks like snow begins across most of central NY and northeast PA
Friday afternoon. The snow likely will be mixed with rain in the
valleys during the onset. For Friday night into Saturday morning,
the precipitation will turn to all snow before tapering off to snow
showers and flurries by afternoon.
As for snow accumulations, the 12z Euro has 4 to 6 inches from
Steuben Co to Poconos with 3-5" Wyoming Valley. Farther north into
central NY amounts are 2-4" except less than 1" in Oneida County.
The 12z GFS has similar placement of the heaviest snow with 3 to 7"
from Steuben Co to Poconos and again 3-5" in Wyoming Valley. The GFS
has more like 3-5" in central NY with a similar cutoff in snow
amounts in Oneida Co. 12z CMC is remarkably similar to the GFS
in snow amounts. The 12z NAM has a more widespread 3-6" most of
central NY and northeast PA with 1-2" Oneida Co. NAM looks like
the heaviest axis is across the twin tiers instead of mainly
northeast PA. The ensemble means for the 06z Euro, 12z GFS and
12z CMC all have heaviest in the 3-6" range across northern PA
with less than 2" in Oneida County. So bottom line is we are
looking at a potential winter weather advisory event (possibly a
minimal warning event locally). So we will continue to mention
in HWO.
After this system pass high pressure ridge builds over the region
for Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the long term period, the main issue is the potential
development of a major east coast snowstorm Sunday night potentially
all the way to Wednesday depending on which model solution you look
at. All three medium range models show an upper level low moving
through the Great lakes and a southern branch low-level cyclone
moving up the eastern seaboard. The potential exists for this system
to phase far enough south and west to give central NY and northeast
Pa a big snowstorm. The 12z Euro continues to phase these systems
in a way that pounds central NY and northeast PA with heavy snow and
even high winds. The euro also stalled out the upper level low and
keeps a northwest flow of lake enhanced snow showers over our area
thru Wednesday. The CMC is similar to the Euro but not as amplified
and farther east with the heavier snow. The CMC also keeps snow
showers over our area into Wednesday. The GFS does not phase the
southern branch and norther branch waves but has a lot of cold air
and snow showers for most of this period. The ensembles for the GFS
and CMC do have means of warning level snow. The 06z Euro ensemble
doesn`t go our far enough. For now we will keep our eye on this as
the euro continue to show the most phasing and farther south. We
will mention in HWO potential for more snow early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cloud cover continues to clear south of Lake Ontario this
evening, so attempted to account for this clearing in most of
the NY terminals except BGM with a period of VFR conditions
at times tonight before a second surge of low level moisture
causes the MVFR/fuel-alternate required ceilings to return late
tonight and Thursday morning. There could be some improvement at
ELM, RME and AVP after 18Z Thu, but ITH, BGM and SYR may remain
at least MVFR. Winds stay steady from the north/nw through the
period with sustained winds around 7 to 12 kt.
Outlook...
Thursday night...Ceiling restrictions are expected to return or
stick around due to a north wind off of Lake Ontario.
Friday...Mainly VFR in the morning but some restrictions from
snow and cigs is possible later in the day.
Friday night through Saturday...Restrictions possible with
rain, snow, or both.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
Monday...Restrictions possible in rain or snow.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/ES
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...BJG/BJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
708 PM MST Wed Mar 8 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM MST Wed Mar 8 2023
Expanded the Freezing Fog Advisory to cover from Kimball
County...west to the east foothills along Interstate 80. Looking
at WYDOT webcams...looking pretty foggy already. Updates sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM MST Wed Mar 8 2023
Another dreary start to the day across the CWA between low stratus,
dense fog, and a little bit of freezing drizzle/freezing fog. Low
clouds are still lingering over the Laramie Range and eastward.
Dense freezing fog continues over the Interstate-80 summit and south
Laramie Range. This prompted the issuance, and then later
extension, of a Freezing Fog Advisory for that zone. Webcam
observations of the area show near-zero visibility and hoar frost
growth. Hi-Res guidance such as the HREF and HRRR keep poor
visibility over the south Laramie Range through about 09Z tonight.
The Freezing Fog Advisory may later have to be extended to the
foothills and potentially central Laramie County this evening as
guidance shows these areas fogging back up with a more easterly
upslope flow. Fog looks to dissipate after 09Z as winds become
stronger and more westerly.
Besides fog, the other weather contender tonight will be snow. An
incoming upper-level shortwave will lead to increased snow potential
overnight. Models have consistently trended snowfall amounts down
over the past few days, and Hi-Res guidance shows pretty spotty
coverage of snow as well. Snow looks to stay mainly to Carbon,
Converse, and Niobrara Counties, and the northern Nebraska
panhandle. These locations are likely the only places that will also
see snow accumulation over one inch. Other locations not mentioned
will likely see scattered snow showers with trace amounts of
accumulation. Snow will likely taper off Thursday morning.
Conditions on Thursday look quite blustery behind the shortwave with
steepened MSLP gradients from an inverted surface trough. The wind
prones, especially the south Laramie Range and foothills could
briefly get close to hitting high wind criteria during the morning
hours. 50 kt winds aloft with good subsidence could cause an
occasional gust to 60 MPH. Locations outside the wind prones will
likely see gusts up to 40 MPH.
Confidence is higher for a high wind event on Friday. This wind
event looks to mainly be driven by steep 700 mb height gradients and
good lapse rates. Decided to expand the current High Wind Watch to
central Carbon County, the Shirley Mountains and to Shirley Basin.
50 to 60 kt winds aloft and good subsidence make it increasingly
likely that these areas will see high winds on Friday. Aside from
the wind, some locations east of the Laramie Range could make a run
for highs in the 50s! A shallow upper-level ridge will build across
the area allowing positive 700 mb temperatures to return. A limiting
factor that will likely impact the temperatures will be the
increased cloud cover that day from a disturbance within the flow
aloft.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM MST Wed Mar 8 2023
Main Weather Highlights:
1) Periods of accumulating snowfall for the Sierra Madre and Snowy
mountains will continue through the weekend with lesser chances
occurring through next week. The best chances for consistent
accumulating snow will be in the Sierra Madre mountains. More
Widespread precipitation chances may arrive my mid-week next week.
2) Widespread breezy conditions expected across much of SE Wyoming
on Saturday. Some periods of high winds will be possible across
Bordeaux, the I-80 Summit, and south Laramie Range Foothills.
Elevated wind gusts (approaching 45 mph) may be possible across the
I-25 corridor.
3) Frontal boundary moves through the area Saturday afternoon.
Convective parameters are weak, but some isolated thunderstorms may
be possible across the Nebraska Panhandle along and ahead of the
frontal boundary.
3) Temperatures will gradually warm Friday and Saturday before a
weak cold front knocks temperatures back down on Sunday.
Temperatures climb into 50s and 60s for locations east of the
Laramie Range by the beginning of next week.
Overview: Mean 500mb flow continues to show a persistent quasi-zonal
flow with several weak shortwaves transversing quickly west to east
across the region. The net affects of these shortwaves will be for
continued periods of moderate snowfall across the Sierra Madre and
Snowy mountain ranges, and bring the threat of high winds, to the
wind prone areas and areas along and east of the Laramie Range. Weak
frontal boundary moves through Saturday and could bring some
precipitation chances to SE Wyoming valleys and the potential for a
few isolated thunderstorms across the southern Nebraska Panhandle.
Beginning Friday, breezy conditions will be common across SE Wyoming
valleys which could last through Saturday. High winds looks likely
Saturday and additional high wind highlights may be needed.
Temperatures will take a brief tumble on Sunday behind the front,
but fast warmup is expected next week as temperatures east of the
Laramie Range and into the Nebraska Panhandle climb into the 50s and
60s.
Discussion: Models and in-house guidance have keyed on a window for
the potential for high winds to develop across the Bordeaux wind
prone area late Friday night into Saturday, with another surge of
strong winds/mountain wave activity possible to impact SE Wyoming.
Parameters aren`t particularly impressive and the duration may only
be for a 6hr period for these high winds for that second surge on
Saturday. The main driving force will be some decent 700mb winds
between 55-60kt which should collocate under stripes of strong
downward omega values across the Laramie Range. Where these
parameters align is where the highest confidence resides for seeing
high wind gusts and this looks to be around the I-80 Summit region
and adjacent foothills. The caveat will be mountain wave activity
and if/when they do occur portions of the I-25 corridor, including
Cheyenne could see some periodic gusts approaching high wind
criteria. Additional High Wind highlights may be needed to account
for this activity. Winds will taper off as a frontal boundary moves
through the region. Could see a quick uptick in winds just prior to
FROPA, but will quickly falloff post FROPA.
The aforementioned frontal boundary may encounter some low tier
convective parameters in place across the southern Nebraska
Panhandle late Saturday afternoon and some isolated thunderstorms
may develop although confidence at this occurring is low. Behind
this front, temperatures will tumble back down into the 40s from
previous days highs in the 50s.
With weak disturbances moving through, mountain snow showers will be
a common occurrence throughout the majority of the long term
forecast period. The highest terrain of the Sierra Madre and Snowys
may be see some modest snowfall totals, especially if the flow holds
and supports for continuous upslope flow with added orographic
enhancement. The high valleys across Carbon County could see some
light accumulation but overall would not be surprised if most Carbon
County remains dry.Into next week, models are in agreement of
building a large amplitude ridge across the western CONUS allowing
for dry conditions to develop with warming temperatures.
Temperatures to start next week could climb into the upper 50s to
low 60s for areas east of the Laramie Range and into the Nebraska
Panhandle.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 412 PM MST Wed Mar 8 2023
Terminals will experience upslope flow east of the Laramie Range
this evening and overnight. It will be another low CIGs and low
VIS impact regime as light snow showers begin to spread from west
to east also. The tricky aviation forecast calls for a general IFR
to low-end MVFR setup at most terminals this evening with the
exception being KRWL and KLAR, where low-end VFR will transpire.
KCYS will see IFR to LIFR begin near 4Z this evening, and continue
until through 12Z Thursday. KLAR and KRWL will see VIS and CIG
reductions due to the -SHSN between 6Z-12Z. The NE Panhandle will
see IFR to LIFR occur near the 11Z/12Z timeframe Thursday morning,
with wind gusts picking up after daybreak. 25-35 knot winds can be
expected in the NE Panhandle by mid-morning through the afternoon
hours. Please see individual TAFs for further information.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM MST Wed Mar 8 2023
No fire weather concerns are expected for the next week due to a
cold, unsettled weather pattern with accumulating snow. Winds are
expected to increase across southeastern Wyoming on Thursday and
remain strong through Sunday. Temperatures warm Friday and Saturday.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Freezing Fog Advisory until 2 AM MST Thursday for WYZ116>119.
High Wind Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
for WYZ104-105-109-110.
NE...Freezing Fog Advisory until 2 AM MST Thursday for NEZ054.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...BW
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023
...Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023
Our storm of interest has come ashore and is located across Oregon
this afternoon. The models continue to coverage on the h700mb
tracking across or around the Black Hills Thursday morning and then
southeast into IA during the afternoon.
Key Messages:
-The Winter Weather Advisory for 2 to 4 inches can continue in
place across nrn Nebraska but it`s worth noting this area will be
on the srn fringe of a broad area of QPF stretching across SD.
-This QPF area could shift north a bit or even south somewhat,
especially if convective snow develops as shown by some models.
-A brief period of freezing drizzle is possible this evening
before the stronger lift and moderate snow moves in from around
midnight onward. Forecast updates are possible for this hazard
across swrn Nebraska and elsewhere.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023
Cameras on I-80 suggest freezing drizzle is underway and radar
suggests it may be developing across the srn Sandhills. A
forecast update is in place for this feature this evening.
Additional forecast updates are possible for this hazard across
swrn Nebraska and elsewhere this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023
A 700mb warm front should be located along the SD border tonight as
a focus for snow and a stalled arctic front is draped across wrn and
ncntl Nebraska for additional support. Aloft, wrn and ncntl Nebraska
will be in the warm air advection/potentially convective zone. In
fact, there is some very modest elevated CAPE above 700mb and the
GFS, ECM and CAMS have been showing convective stripes of QPF as far
south as Interstate 80. The blended forecast smoothes most of this
out and places the best snow accumulation up north, from KVTN east;
a slight shift to the west over the previous forecast. The Winter
Weather Advisory for 2 to 4 inches can continue in place across nrn
Nebraska but it`s worth noting this area will be on the srn fringe
of a broad area of QPF stretching across SD. This QPF area could
shift north a bit or even south somewhat, especially if convective
snow develops as shown by some models.
Moisture should increase from the south with the approach of the
upper low this evening. The models are more gradual with the onset
of the snow this evening. A brief period of freezing drizzle is
possible this evening before the stronger lift and moderate snow
moves in from around midnight onward. The RAP model suggests the
best areas for freezing drizzle will be across scntl Nebraska, far
southwest Nebraska and KS tonight. Nonetheless, forecast updates are
possible for this hazard across swrn Nebraska and elsewhere.
The models are quicker swinging a Pacific cold front through swrn
Nebraska Thursday morning and afternoon. The blended forecast
supported by the RAP model suggests a sharp clearing line and highs
in the 40s to near 50 are in place Thursday across the south.
Meanwhile, snow continues across the north with temperatures near
30. The storm will depart ncntl Nebraska early Thursday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023
There is yet another upper low is off the Pacific Northwest coast
and lower British Columbia this afternoon. The models are in good
agreement tracking the storm east through srn Canada Friday and
Saturday and then into ND and the upper Midwest Sunday. The
forecast continues a chance of showers with the warm front Friday
night and Saturday followed by a strong cold front Saturday night
and Sunday. The cool down will be short-lived. The models are in
good agreement warming temperatures aloft at h850mb to around 10C
Tuesday; the result of a warm front associated with Pacific high
pressure moving into wrn and ncntl Nebraska.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023
Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions will prevail across all of
western and north central Nebraska through Thursday. Some
improvement is expected across southwest Nebraska by Thursday
afternoon. Snow and patchy freezing drizzle will also be possible
through Thursday. Winds will be generally east to northeast at
5-15 kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to
midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Thursday night for NEZ005>010-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Taylor
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
555 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023
Convection will increase this evening as height falls overspread an
environment characterized by deep saturation and modest elevated
instability atop a warm nose. Veering wind profiles will support
modest storm organization; transient supercell-like structures have
been noted in SJT`s area this afternoon. Thus, a few storms may
contain marginally severe hail this afternoon and evening. The
likeliest area for storms will be in an axis from western north
Texas to southeastern Oklahoma where isentropic ascent will be
maximized. Rainfall amounts generally look to be less than 1 inch
due to the progressive nature of individual storms, so flooding will
be a marginal concern at most.
Some breaks in cloud cover today have allowed temperatures to warm
slightly above forecast. In all likelihood, cloud cover will build
back in overnight tonight. Short-range models suggest an easterly
component to surface winds, which will advect in slightly more moist
air from eastern Oklahoma. Given the conditions, fog appears
possible across the eastern half of our CWA later this evening. Some
patchy fog can`t be ruled out across northern Oklahoma toward
daybreak as well.
Showers and storms will diminish from west to east in the Red River
Valley by mid-morning tomorrow. Significant uncertainty exists in
temperature guidance, with the NAM and especially the HRRR
maintaining cold and cloudy conditions and the ECMWF and GFS
allowing for some warning to at or above normal. Currently favoring
a compromise between the two solutions given the fact that we did
achieve clearing today.
Meister
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023
A reinforcing cold shot will sweep through the area late Thursday
night through Friday morning, returning temperatures into the 40s.
Later in the day, most guidance suggests a rapid turn-around with
lee troughing developing by afternoon. The cold front should make it
to the Gulf Coast, so any return flow with this lee troughing will
be dry, but right now we anticipate that highs will be able to warn
back up to about average.
Height falls will overspread the area from west to east on Saturday,
triggering a weak cyclogenesis event across west central Oklahoma.
This will bring about several possible forecast impacts. Across
western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma, downsloping
southwesterly winds across parched ground could bring temperatures
into the 90s. With a stiff breeze, elevated fire weather is possible
despite the fact that models currently don`t show the typical March-
dry air developing within the low-level thermal ridge.
Further to the east on the other side of the dryline, low-60s
dewpoints will stream up to the southern I-35 corridor and eastward
by sunset. Synoptically, the potent shortwave trough presents a
typical look for possible severe convection near the triple point.
However, models are showing a very narrow warm sector and potential
capping issues. Added a slight mention of rain/thunder to our
southeastern Oklahoma counties for Saturday afternoon/evening, and
will continue to monitor.
Another cold front will sweep through the warm sector Sunday and
bring drier air. Early next week, a surface high centered over us
will lead to dry, near-average conditions.
Meister
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023
MVFR conditions expected to prevail, or develop across terminals
most of the forecast period, at least through about 15-18Z.
Scattered SHRA and some TSRA forecast to spread northward from
northern Texas into southern Oklahoma, with mainly just SHRA
possible up into central Oklahoma toward and after 06Z. Light
easterly flow overnight and tomorrow morning could result in lower
cigs and visibilities than currently in forecast, so will monitor
trends for 06Z issuance. MVFR to VFR conditions expected to spread
from north to south late in forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 50 64 38 59 / 80 70 0 0
Hobart OK 46 68 35 61 / 70 40 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 50 67 41 63 / 80 50 10 0
Gage OK 39 64 29 62 / 30 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 47 59 33 56 / 70 70 0 0
Durant OK 53 67 43 65 / 80 70 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...11