Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/19/23


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
340 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 301 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2023 Current satellite shows mid to high level cloud cover continuing to stream across the region from the southwest. RAP 500mb analysis shows west-southwesterly flow with forecasts of the NAM and GFS showing a shift to more zonal flow as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest and a lee trough begins to push eastward. Temperatures top out today in the upper 30s to upper 40s and overnight lows drop into the mid-teens to mid-20s. Another lee trough develops and heads east-southeast as the upper level trough swings through and shifts flow out of the northwest Sunday night into Monday. Expect similar temperatures tomorrow as were experienced today, perhaps only slightly warmer due to decreased cloud cover and continual melting of the snowpack. Temperatures will continue to warm on Monday into the mid 40s to mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1230 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2023 Tuesday...the 500mb flow begins the period from the northwest, backing to the west during the day then to the southwest during the night as a large upper level low and its trough organize over the intermountain west. This mornings model guidance has the better 850- 500mb moisture for precipitation north of the area through the day. Last night and this mornings NBM update has silent pops for the daytime hours which is generous. During the night, moisture in the 850-500mb layer increases across the northwest 1/3 or so of the forecast area ahead of the upper trough and as a result we have some slight chance and low chance pops for some light rain mixing with or changing over to light snow. Little if any accumulation is currently expected. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 50s which is close to the better performing temperature guidance from the past 7 to 15 days. 850mb temperatures of 8C to 13C and MEX guidance would suggest higher temperatures then currently forecast. Low temperatures in the middle teens to upper 20s. Wednesday...the upper trough to our west is forecast to remain stationary through the day, ejecting a piece of energy across the area during the night. GFS/GEM/ECMWF 850-700mb relative humidity forecasts remain fairly high during the day as a cold front moves through. Mid level moisture lifts northeast and out of the area during the morning with another batch moving into the western part of the forecast area during the afternoon. Overall, I still think slight chance to likely pops are a bit overdone. Should any snow fall, current forecasts from the NBM and other guidance show zero to 0.2 of an inch, highest across the northwest 1/2 of the area. For the overnight hours, we`ll continue with slight chance to likely pops through midnight for additional light snow accumulation up to perhaps one half inch. Todays temperature guidance isnt as cold as the previous shift with high temperatures in the lower 30s to middle 40s. 850mb temperatures from the GFS/GEM/ECMWF average about -7C across the northern CWA to +3C across the south at 18z with slowly cooling temperatures through the afternoon. Low temperatures are forecast to range from -6F in Yuma, CO to +5F in Hill City, KS. Wind chill readings during the night are currently forecast to be in the -7F to -22F range, coldest in Yuma county. Thursday...the 500mb flow remains from the southwest with another deep trough trying to organize over California/Nevada. Dry weather is currently forecast through the day with a slight chance of light snow during the evening per NBM and GEM models. GFS/ECMWF relative humidity forecasts at 850-700 and 700-500mb are drier and not supportive of any precipitation. Arctic air continues to pour into the area from the north with GFS/GEM/ECMWF 850mb temperatures ranging from -14C across the north to -7C across the south...about 7C to 10C colder compared to Wednesday. NBM high temperatures range from the upper teens to around 20 degrees across the north to 30 degrees across the south. Low temperatures fall into the single digits above zero with wind chill readings in the single digits below zero. Friday...the GFS/ECMWF/GEFS models push the upper trough axis east toward the Continental Divide through the period. Dry weather is currently forecast. 850mb temperatures from the GFS/ECMWF rise 13C to 16C compared to Thursday supporting much warmer temperatures in the 30s to middle 40s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle teens. Saturday...the GFS/ECMWF models move the upper trough axis into the northern plains southwest into New Mexico during the day. A lack of moisture through 500mb supports a dry forecast at this time. GFS/ECMWF 850mb temperatures drop about a few degrees C but high temperatures from the NBM are higher than Friday. I`m thinking current high temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 40s may be optimistic for some but based on typical mixing to 850mb some of the forecast area highs are on track. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 340 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2023 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A west wind up to 10kts at taf issuance at taf issuance will continue for much of the night, veering to the northwest at similar speeds during the afternoon Sunday. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light southwest wind at taf issuance will veer to the west at speeds up to 10kts from 05z-15z then veer to the northwest at speeds up to 12kts through Sunday afternoon. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
811 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 New Information added to update section .UPDATE... Issued at 810 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Warm advection continues this evening ahead of a southern stream system across the central Plains and a cold front over the Dakotas. Mid and high clouds from the southern stream system are spreading across Wisconsin this evening. Persistent south flow and cloud cover overhead will keep temps mild overnight with lows in the middle 20s to near 30 by the Lakeshore. Rap analysis and upstream soundings indicate a very dry airmass is present across the northern Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes region this evening. Despite warm advection occurring, think models are too aggressive developing low clouds overnight across north-central WI. Dewpoint depressions fall significantly behind the front over the western Dakotas. This front will arrive over north-central WI on Sunday morning, which seems like a better approximation for the timing of low cloudiness. In the end, the only modest change to the going forecast was to adjust sky cover. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Southerly flow and WAA aloft brought back some high clouds for the region this afternoon, gradually reducing the sunshine for much of the region through the early afternoon. High temperatures remain on track to be in the upper 30s to low/middle 40s for the mid afternoon. South to southwesterly flow will continue into the overnight hours tonight which will keep low temperatures warmer than last night. Lows tonight will range from the middle to upper 20s for most of the area, almost ten degrees warmer than last night. An alberta Clipper system will pass across the north during the day Sunday. Weak CAA could produce at least a few light snow showers across the far north, but qpf for any snow during the day will likely be fairly minimal with all the dry air at the surface to overcome. High temperatures will be fairly similar to today, with highest in the middle 30s to lower 40s. .LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Three systems are expected to move through the region through the middle of next week, with each likely to have greater impact than the previous. Sunday night... A weak clipper low pressure system will pass through Canada; well north of the forecast area, but an associated cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening. The best chance of snow will be across north central WI, aided by lake-effect in the Lake Superior snowbelt. However, a secondary are of light precipitation may develop along the cold front as it moves through our southeast counties in the evening. Expecting a dusting a half inch in far north central WI, with little or no accumulation elsewhere. Monday afternoon and Monday night... A second clipper low is expected to impact the region Monday afternoon and night. This system will be stronger, track farther south, and have a more potent short-wave in association with it. Expect accumulating snow to overspread the northwest half of the forecast area late Monday afternoon, and the rest of the region in the evening. Total accumulations of 1-3 inches are expected northwest of a line from Wausau to Antigo to Iron Mountain, with a dusting to an inch farther southeast. This low will likely result in some travel impacts for north central and parts of far northeast WI. Minor lake-effect snow showers will continue into Tuesday morning before ending. Tuesday night through Thursday... Models show significant isentropic lift and mid-level frontogenetic forcing Tuesday night, along with upper level divergence in association with the RRQ of a jet streak. The forcing may briefly weaken Wednesday morning before ramping up again later Wednesday. A band of snow is expected to set up across mainly central and east central WI, including the Fox Valley, with potential for 2-4 inches in some locations. A surface low will track from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday, though there are still differences in the track (ECMWF farther south than the GFS). In addition, a potent short-wave and associated deformation zone are expected to move into the region on Thursday. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) shows potential for high impact winds, QPF and snowfall during this period, and the majority of ensemble members and operational models indicate significant QPF amounts of 0.5 to 0.8 inches. Heavy snow, strong winds and blowing/drifting snow look like a real possibility, but this system has yet to be sampled by the radiosonde network over the CONUS, and there are differences in the track, so prefer a cautious and gradual ramp-up with messaging. Rest of the extended... A weak system is progged to push through the area Friday night into Saturday, accompanied by a chance of light snow. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 524 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 - As a clipper passes north of Lake Superior on Sunday, a weak cold front will move across northern WI. Only spotty, light rain and snow showers will be possible on Sunday afternoon. - Low level wind shear remains likely to develop late this evening into the overnight hours at all taf sites. - Ceilings will remain VFR with only mid and high clouds until the front arrives on Sunday morning. Then MVFR clouds are expected to spread from northwest to southeast across north- central WI on Sunday. Delayed the arrival of these lower ceilings by several hours. These clouds will likely struggle to reach the Fox Valley and Lakeshore, but did bring them into GRB/ATW in the afternoon. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.........MPC SHORT TERM.....Uhlmann LONG TERM......Kieckbusch AVIATION.......MPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
953 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 Made some adjustments to the forecast with latest guidance this evening, mainly winds and PoPs, but over all nothing major. The PoP forecast for tonight and Sunday remains troublesome, with pretty high confidence in development of a weak surface trough just offshore by the afternoon, but less agreement how much rain and where. The HRRR and ARW continue to promote isolated showers along the coast, at best, as the trough gets pushed eastward before it can deliver much rainfall, while the NAM Nest and FV3 are much more aggressive with scattered to even numerous light showers moving onshore and inland as far as the Orlando metro before getting kicked off to the east. Given the uncertainty, opted to be generous with 20 pct PoPs along the coast and inland to I-95, especially later in the afternoon Sunday, but no further inland since the NAM and FV3 are not initializing well. As for winds, nudged the forecast closer to the hi-res models since the blends were smoothing out too many smaller scale features, such as the afternoon sea breeze development south of Melbourne. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies, a gentle breeze, and overnight lows ranging from the low 50s up north to the low 60s down south. && .MARINE... Issued at 951 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 Tonight...Boating conditions continue to improve, but remain hazardous in the Gulf Stream due to seas up to 8 ft, including portions of the Treasure Coast nearshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the offshore waters until 10 AM, and the Treasure Coast nearshore waters until 4 AM. High pressure over the SE U.S. shifts ENE, loosening the pressure gradient across the local waters. Winds 10-15 kts nearshore and 15-20 kts offshore continue to ease, becoming 5-10 kts nearshore and 10-15 kts offshore, while veering from NE to E. Seas in the Gulf Stream up to 8 ft subside to 5-7 ft by morning. Seas closer to shore 3-5 ft. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 951 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period as high pressure builds over ECFL. Light easterly winds become VRB at times Sunday, especially inland. Coastal terminals switch to onshore in the afternoon with the sea breeze. VCSH at coastal terminals starting early Sunday morning as a weak surface trough developing offshore increases rain chances. BKN-OVC VFR CIGS building northward through the night, reaching inland terminals by morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 66 56 75 58 / 0 10 20 0 MCO 71 58 81 60 / 0 10 10 0 MLB 72 62 79 60 / 10 10 20 0 VRB 74 64 82 61 / 10 10 20 0 LEE 71 55 79 58 / 0 0 10 0 SFB 71 57 80 59 / 0 10 10 0 ORL 72 59 81 61 / 0 10 10 0 FPR 73 64 80 63 / 10 10 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ555. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haley LONG TERM....Weitlich AVIATION...Haley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
532 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Remainder of today and tonight) Issued at 1222 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2023 This morning has been marked by mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 20s. As we progressed through the morning though, ridge axis moving through resulting in increasing subsidence has helped to clear skies out across much of the south and west. Some spots that have seen the clear skies have warmed into the low 30s. Overall, its been a nice day across Upper Michigan. For the remainder of the afternoon, expect skies to continuing clearing as ridge axis moves overhead. Temps are expected to warm up into the 30s across the region with the warmest spots being in the south-central where some mid-30s are expected. An upstream shortwave and surface low is expected to continue pressing eastward across the northern Plains tonight, with WAA occurring over the forecast area ahead of the clipper, resulting in slowly increasing cloud cover. With the cloud cover expected to be slow some spots could dip into the teens, but generally expecting overnight lows to be in the 20s across the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 247 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2023 Key Messages: -Cold front and trailing LES Sun PM/Mon AM, snow highest in Baraga terrain -Clipper low and snow chances Monday into Tuesday, again with trailing LES -Potential for impactful system late week -Continued pattern of cooler temps and shortwaves followed by LES An active pattern is set up for the UP for the long term forecast, with broad troughing over Canada giving a good setup for multiple shortwaves of varying strengths to pass through the CONUS. The first is a fairly subtle shortwave supporting a clipper system Sunday night into Monday morning, followed by a more well defined shortwave passing through the Upper Great Lakes Monday. The wave with the most potential impact arrives towards the late week, though great uncertainty exists on key details that could impact the location of the resultant low and what environmental variables are available that translate into snowfall impacts. Beyond the late week, this wavy pattern continues, though confidence continues to fall with the Butterfly Effect of every passing system making predictive confidence in the details of the longer term forecast very low. The other impact of Canadian broad troughing is prevailing northerlies that can lead to lake effect snow in the wake of passing shortwaves. Starting with Sunday, warm air advection and southerly surface flow ahead of a subtle shortwave will bring daytime highs above freezing. While the 06Z GEFS progs a low that deepens from 1007 to 1002 mb as it follows the north shores of Lake Superior during the day Sunday, mid to upper level dry air will limit system snowfall to light showers at best, per the 12Z WRF ARW and HRRR runs. Temperatures around freezing will allow for some ptype mixing including some fzdz, though with QPF limited by before, any ice will be a light glaze or less. Following the cold front, 850mb temperatures fall almost 10 degrees C in 12 hours, reaching well into the negative teens C by 09Z Monday. Amazingly, Lake Superior has almost no ice to inhibit lake effect snow for February, and surface level moisture is supportive for lake effect snow bands out of the north and northwest late Sunday into Monday. However, as soundings indicate the moist layer is only generally below 5kft and only marginally into the DGZ, both QPF and snow ratio will be limited despite the supportive thermal profile. Lake effect snow will rapidly end Monday morning around 12Z as winds turn southerly ahead of the next system. While this is technically an Alberta clipper as the shortwave originates from the Alberta Rockies and digs south, the magnitude of the shortwave is abnormally strong, and this will support a low pressure passing through the CWA. The 06Z GEFS has the mean low center over Marquette at 994 mb 06Z Tuesday, with ensemble centers from Isle Royale to Menominee. The 00Z EPS is a bit slower and not as sure about the center`s location, with centers ranging from Milwaukee to the MN Arrowhead, with the Canadian ensemble being a mixed bag of both solutions. A more southerly track might give more snow, but even the more northerly low track could give at least advisory levels of snow given the vigorous lift in the DGZ expected with deep moisture expected. Following tropa, northwesterly flow and cold advection aloft once again provide a helpful thermal profile for lake enhancement at first followed by pure lake effect snow for the NW bands. The lake effect will be capped in intensity by broad anticyclonic flow, though the thermal and moisture profile should be supportive enough for at least light lake effect showers to persist. The most interesting of the snow systems expected to impact the UP during the long term forecast will be arriving in the late week period. It is a fragile setup that will depend on not only the results of the previously discussed troughs, but the interaction of a pair of troughs that pass through the CONUS Wednesday through Friday morning. The first is a deep trough over the Baja California late Tuesday that negatively tilts as it ejects northeast Wednesday and early Thursday. While the synoptic forcing of this trough will remain perhaps hundreds of miles south of the UP, the trough will serve to make winds across the Mississippi Valley more southwesterly instead of southerly, severing a potential Gulf moisture connection that was initially expected to funnel high QPFs into the trailing trough, which will itself eject out of the southern Rockies Wednesday and arrive in the Upper Midwest early Thursday. The 06Z deterministic GFS ended up near the high end of its own ensemble regarding snowfall totals for KSAW, undermining the confidence of high totals that are shown in the NBM 4.1 probs. The European and Canadian ensembles lack the high ceiling of the GFS ensembles, but holds a good floor of at least advisory criteria snowfall for Thursday. Despite the ensemble disagreement, the ensembles generally agree on a broad 1030s high filling the wake of the low, ending precip for the UP early Friday. Models diverge into near-chaos into the weekend, though the ensembles (especially the Euro) favor another clipper of some flavor over the weekend. Expect impacts relatively similar to the early- week snow for the weekend if this verifies. Into next week, the same pattern of troughing upstream supporting many shortwaves and below average temperatures to persist. Winter is not dead! && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 532 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2023 VFR conditions are expected through tonight. Lowering ceilings are expected ahead of an approaching clipper, with all sites expected to be MVFR by Sunday morning. SAW could briefly go IFR Sun morning. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 247 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2023 Winds across the lake are below 20 knots until early Sunday morning, when southerly gusts increase to 20 to 25 knots in the east half. As a cold front passes across Lake Superior Sunday, gusts across the lake increase to 20 to 25 knots with the central lake seeing some gusts up to 30 knots Sunday evening. Winds gradually decrease overnight, and by Monday morning, winds across the lake are below 20 knots. Monday evening, southeasterly winds in the west half increase to 20 knots ahead of a low pressure passing directly over the lake overnight into Tuesday. This low will cause gale force gusts over the central lake Tuesday morning and the eastern portions of the lake by midday Tuesday. As the low departs Tuesday evening, winds gradually fall below 20 knots overnight. With multiple shortwaves passing over the CONUS Wednesday, tightening pressure gradient will increase northeasterly winds to 25 to 30 knots Wednesday, with a gale event expected Thursday. High pressure keeps wind below 20 knots on Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTP LONG TERM...GS AVIATION...07 MARINE...GS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
314 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 313 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2023 Key Messages: 1) Potential for strong/damaging winds srn I-25 corridor tonight 2) Windy and warmer on Sunday Good deal of high level cloudiness has limited temps somewhat on the eastern plains this afternoon, while better mixed areas near the mountains have risen into the mid/upper 50s on the strength of gusty west winds. Overnight, main concern is high wind potential over the srn I-25 corridor, as mid/high level wly winds increase. Not a great set-up for a strong mountain wave as shear profile is only briefly neutral at best, though some gap-flow enhanced winds to 50 kts still look possible from La Veta Pass eastward toward Aguilar and Walsenburg through the night. HRRR gusts have been trending downward the past few runs, so confidence in 60 mph gusts is somewhat low, though with warning already out, will keep it in place for now. Elsewhere, expect pockets of breezy west winds through the night, keeping temps somewhat mild once again. A few snow showers will reach the Continental Divide toward sunrise as upper wave approaches, though better chances for snow will hold off until the daytime hours on Sunday. Winds increase area-wide on Sunday as upper wave drops through the Rockies and mid/upper level jet remains over Colorado. Many areas could see west winds gust in the 30 to 40 mph range by afternoon as surface pressure falls on the plains and mixing deepens, with the windiest spots in/near the eastern mountains. Max temps will climb with the wind, and 40s/50s will be widespread, maybe a 60f reading far southeast corner of the plains. Snow will become more widespread along the Continental Divide through the day, though accums will remain light with just an inch or 2 possible over the higher peaks of the Sawatch/Mosquitos through the day. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 313 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2023 Key Messages: 1) Potential for damaging winds near Rampart Range and northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Sunday night into Monday. 2) Heavy snow possible for eastern San Juan Mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday. 3) Shallow arctic airmass for the plains possible Wednesday into Thursday. .Sunday night and Monday...Next trough passes to the east of the region Sunday night. Behind the trough, northwest winds aloft will move into the region. The atmosphere is setting up for the potential for a mountain wave induce high wind event Sunday night and into Monday. Subsidence will create a near mountain top inversion with vertical shear being weak. The high resolution models are picking up on the signal with a ribbon of higher winds in the lee of the eastern mountains. The high resolution models show an area of strong winds just to the lee of Pikes peaks with a ribbon of winds,not quite as strong, extending northward into the Rampart Range. Past experience with the high resolution models suggest that the winds may be stronger in the lee of the Rampart Range. Another area which can get strong winds are in the lee of the northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains on the western edge of the Wet Mountain Valley. Will maintain the high wind watch for this time as would want to see another run or two to get the finer details. Further south, high resolution models also suggest some strong winds in the lee of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and southern slopes of the Spanish Peaks. Past experience indicates that these areas do not get high winds with northwest flow. In addition, the higher winds stay in the mountain zones which have higher wind highlight criteria. Decided not to add them to the watch at this time. Otherwise it will be a mild day with windy conditions over and near the mountains. .Tuesday through Thursday...Trough moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and moves into the Great Basin Wednesday before lifting northeast across Colorado. Moist southwest flow will impinge on the mountains Tuesday night and continues into Wednesday night. The Continental Divide region looks to get another round of significant snowfall with the heaviest snow over the eastern San Juans. Very preliminary snowfall estimates are 1-2 feet for the eastern san Juans with around half the amount for the remainder of the Continental Divide region. Further east, the plains and eastern mountains will be near the southern boundary of a shallow arctic airmass. Tricky temperature forecast for Wednesday and Thursday depending on how far south the arctic air reaches. Did not adjust the NBM temperatures which keeps the core of the colder air further north. With southwest winds aloft, the deeper arctic air would tend to stay further north and increased solar radiation may modify the airmass. However, arctic air has a tendency to move further south than what the models anticipate. .Friday and Saturday...Another trough will move across the region during this period with the best orographics over the eastern San Juan Mountains. Arctic air on the plains moves to the east with a warming trend. --PGW-- && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 313 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2023 VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. At KALS, still a brief window for gusty SW winds into this evening, then occasional moderate s-se winds expected overnight. Should be enough mixing to limit fog/stratus potential overnight. Gusty w-sw winds then likely after 18z Sun. At KCOS, winds will become n-nw this evening and overnight, then strong w-nw winds develop after 18z Sun with gusts to 35 kts. At KPUB, occasional periods of west winds gusting to 25 kts possible this evening and overnight. Still some potential for strong west winds during the day Sun, though model data hints at a weak eddy near the airport which may lessen wind speeds somewhat, especially in the morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for COZ072-073-081-082. High Wind Warning until 10 AM MST Sunday for COZ087-088. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PGW AVIATION...PETERSEN