Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/15/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
918 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Forecast is generally in good shape for the overnight hours,
although a few questions linger. We`ve seen snow the past several
hours across the eastern CWA, with lowered visibility. Already
seeing road closures and no travel advised over parts of the east.
Also watching the second wave of energy to the west, now moving
into the western CWA. Snow has persisted there, with some
reduction in visibility as well. One question is determining just
how far east this area of snow continues and how impactful will it
be to visibility given the very strong winds currently in place.
Starting to see snow fill in across the James valley recently,
which the HRRR has been showing nicely the past several runs. Feel
headlines are good for the time being, but another question
revolves around how impactful any snow/blowing snow will be west
of Brown/Spink, which is largely dependent on the
longevity/persistence of the western wave of snow as it moves
east. If this turns out to wane in intensity over the next several
hours, perhaps headlines may not be needed over central SD up to
Brown/Spink counties. Will continue to monitor trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
The main challenge in the short term is the low/medium confidence in
overall snowfall totals due to ongoing model discrepancies. Starting
off synoptic-wise. ECMWF Ens/GEFS ensembles agree on the position
and intensity of the 500mb low which at 00Z Wednesday is over NE/IA
border and a trough/sfc low moving in from the west. These two
systems will merge pretty much over our CWA late this afternoon and
into this evening moistening up the layers, seen in Bufkit. By 06Z
this low will be centered over MN/WI border in which most of the
James River Valley and eastern CWA will be on the western/northwest
side of this low/baroclinic zone. By 12Z Wednesday, the closed low
opens up to a wave that will continue to push east. At 850mb, WAA
winds out of the southwest will then shift as the 850mb low will be
over much of the CWA by 00Z per deterministic models (which are in
agreement for this). We start getting steep pressure rises behind
the low starting around 00Z Wed (+1 to +5in a 3 hour period.) This,
along with CAA becoming dominant, steep pressure gradients behind
the low and high to our west, we really see these CAA winds ramps
up! The deterministic models indicate winds at 850mb increasing to
40-50+kts over western and central CWA by 00Z Wed. As this low moves
east/northeast, the stronger winds behind the low will also move
east over the James River valley and eastern CWA. The highest gusts
will be over the Prairie Coteau between 00-06Z Wednesday with
850mb/surface wind gust up to 50kts. Between 12-18Z Wednesday, the
strongest winds will continue to push east/northeast with winds over
the Coteau still 30-50kts at this time then decreasing. By Wednesday
evening, a high pressure system will move in from the west and
decreasing these winds.
With this setup, CAMs+HREF continue to show WAA precipitation in the
form of rain, and in pretty good agreement on timing, moving in from
the south affecting more of the eastern/southeastern CWA with
several RAP bufkit soundings suggesting this precip as temps remain
above freezing. Newer runs have kept this rain around a little
longer before we start seeing a mix. As temps drop tonight, precip
will switch to a rain/snow mix before changing all over into snow.
However a few soundings across central/south central SD do suggest
we could see a short window of time for some freezing drizzle to mix
in between ~00-02Z. CAMs show a switch over to all snow by 04Z or so
over the central and eastern CWA with snow exiting the area by ~12Z
Wednesday.
With the lighter snow expected in central and western CWA, QPF
totals are 0.10 of an inch or less with prob over 0.10 only around
10-30% in this area per EC. This overall trend is backed up pretty
well by both ECMWF/GEFS total precipitation through 12Z Wednesday.
However for the James River Vally to our eastern CWA, there is a
little bit of a difference. ECMWF has more QPF spread further west
(just near the Missouri River) where GEFS keeps it more over the
James River Valley and east. The heavier amounts of QPF do agree to
be more eastern and southeastern CWA with prob of over 0.50 of an
inch at 50-60% in this area per EC ens) but this time, GEFS wants to
take those higher QPF further west than EC. So overall QPF will
range to up to 0.68 over Deuel and surrounding counties to about
0.06 over Corson County and surrounding. The probability of snowfall
amount over 1 inch for both EC ens/GEFS show 10% or less, west of
the Missouri River. Prob of 3 inches or over really varies between
EC and GEFS. EC has brought the % down over the James River Valley
ranging from 10-30% and a little higher in the Prairie Coteau (up to
40%) However GEFS shows up to 60% for over 3 inches. Prob of 6
inches is only shows by GEFS over the Coteau with probs 10-20%. WPC
prob of 4 inches or more is 40% over the James River Valley and up
to 70% near Sisseton Hills and 6 inches or over 20-30%. This is why
there is such a large range in snowfall amounts. Bufkit soundings
show neg omega within the DGZ zone and starting out with lower snow
ratio with the rain/snow mix then they will increase as CAA becomes
more dominant behind the front per RAP soundings. Also, during the
precip, any earlier changeover to snow or vice versa will have an
effect on the total snowfall amounts as well as changes in path of
the low.
So the combination of snow and gusty winds will create blowing snow,
leading to low visibilities in and around the Coteau/Sisseton Hills,
thus the Blizzard Warning remains and goes into effect this evening.
Counties west of this have an advisory. We will need to watch these
areas closely during the snowfall and adjust headlines as needed and
if more snow falls over Brown/Spink county along with these winds,
they may need to be added in the blizzard warning due to blowing
snow as eastern Brown and Spink counties is showing higher snowfall
than western side of the counties. So confidence is 50/50, so left
it as a WW with blizzard conditions possible.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
The main forecast challenge in the extended period will be
precipitation chances late in the period. An upper level trough will
be over the central part of the country to start the period, and
looks to exit the area Thursday night, with northwest flow setting
up on Friday. As another trough approaches and looks to skirt just
to the north, a more zonal flow develops Friday night and remains in
place through Sunday morning. A weak trough will track through
Sunday night, with another moving through on Tuesday.
At the surface, high pressure will be the dominant feature over the
region on Thursday, then gets pushed east by an approaching low
pressure system. The front associated with the low will track across
the CWA Friday afternoon/evening, with weak high pressure behind it
quickly getting pushed east Friday night/Saturday morning as another
low approaches. The low will track across South Dakota, putting the
best chance for precipitation with it north of the CWA on Sunday.
After this, there is quite a bit of discrepancy in the models with
the timing and track of a system moving through and possibly
bringing some precipitation to the area, and will stick with some
small POPs for Monday night and Tuesday for now.
High temperatures will range from around 10 degrees across west
central Minnesota, to the lower 30s across south central South
Dakota on Thursday, from the mid 20s across the Sisseton Hills
region to the lower 50s across south central South Dakota on Friday,
from the lower 30s northeast to the mid 40s southwest on Saturday
and Sunday, from the lower 20s northeast to the upper 30s southwest
on Monday, and from the mid teens northeast to the upper 20s
southwest on Tuesday. Overnight lows will range from the single
digits below zero east to the lower teens west Thursday night, from
the lower teens east to the lower 20s west Friday night, from the
mid teens east to the mid 20s west Saturday night, from the lower
teens east to the mid 20s southwest Sunday night, and from the
single digits below zero east to the mid teens southwest Monday
night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Still seeing areas of FG in the KATY area with VSBY down to 1/4SM.
Expecting VSBY to improve a bit once the stronger northerly winds
kick in over the next couple hours. Otherwise, a mix of MVFR/IFR
CIGs will be across the region overnight as a storm system moves
through. Across KABR/KATY, expect -RASN/RASN to develop/expand
through the evening and become all -SN/SN by around 02Z. Areas of
BLSN through the night as well, especially in the KATY region.
Further west across KMBG/KPIR, expect areas of -SN/SN to move into
central SD later this evening with reductions in VSBY likely in
areas of more persistent snow and BLSN.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Blizzard Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ007-008-011-
019>023.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Wednesday for
SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ006-018.
MN...Blizzard Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...TMT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
917 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Precipitation has ended from west central to north central North
Dakota, roughly northwest of a line from Dickinson to Belcourt.
Several counties were removed from the Winter Weather Advisory for
this update, but hazardous travel may continue through the night.
It appears the threat for freezing drizzle has mostly diminished
across the entire area. The outer band of snow from northeast to
south central North Dakota also shows some signs of weakening on
radar, but this appearance had presented itself earlier and
turned out to be misleading. The more concerning band of snow is
beginning to nudge into eastern portions of LaMoure and Dickey
Counties, and the visibility at Oakes has just dropped below 1/4
mile. This remains the most likely area for a brief period of
blizzard conditions.
Winds have begun to diminish across western North Dakota, but
remain strong to the east. Sustained speeds in the 30 to 40 mph
range are routinely reported, with maximum gusts mostly around 50
mph.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Current observations and trends have dictated significant changes to
the forecast. The first problem is that light snow across southwest
and central North Dakota has been both much slower to end and much
slower to advance eastward than expected. This hasn`t appeared to
really add to accumulations much more than was anticipated, but has
prolonged reduced visibility due to the combination of snow and
wind. The second problem is that widespread freezing drizzle is
being observed across north central North Dakota. The freezing
drizzle may extend back to the south and west along the western edge
of the snow, but north central North Dakota has by far the greatest
impacts at this time. RAP moisture profile forecasts show a low
level layer of saturation persisting this evening before slowly
eroding from west to east overnight. However, the temperature
profile of the saturated layer is expected to cool sufficiently for
a transition from freezing drizzle to flurries later this evening.
The greatest uncertainty in the near term forecast is along and
east of a line from Fort Yates to Harvey, excluding the southern
James River Valley where a Winter Weather Advisory was already in
place. Radar shows the snow to the west of this area is decreasing
in intensity as it approaches, which is about the only aspect of
the precipitation forecast that has gone as expected. However,
HRRR/RAP soundings have also been suggesting freezing drizzle in
this area as well due to a lack of ice aloft. Even though this
area has yet to experience any winter weather impacts, and some
parts may not, we felt that the simplest solution was to
transition the Wind Advisory to a Winter Weather Advisory. North
central North Dakota was also added to the Winter Weather
Advisory, where impacts from freezing drizzle will likely continue
for a few hours after it ends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Snow and breezy winds will continue through the evening and
overnight from a low pressure system impacting the Central Plains.
A strong pressure gradient has set up with cold air advection
(CAA) moving in behind a cold front this afternoon. This has
produced very breezy winds. The strongest CAA and pressure rises
will move through around 04z, this is when the winds will be the
strongest, mainly just in the James River Valley, where winds
could gust around 50 knots. The NBM had winds close to 60 knots
there, but didn`t feel that was reasonable so we used the NBM 10th
percentile and capped the wind gusts at 50 knots. A Wind Advisory
is in effect until Wednesday morning in the central and south.
The band of light snow in western and central North Dakota is very
slowly moving east. The CAMs have band breaking up around south
central before reforming in the southeast. There is a Winter
Weather Advisory already in effect for the southwest where snow
has been falling all day, and winds are gusting around 40 knots.
The snow forecast of 2-4 inches in the southwest is still on
track, however we have received limited reports to validate this.
The central will most likely see less than an inch, and the
southeast around an inch if the band reforms there. The other
Winter Weather Advisory is in the James River Valley starting at
6pm. After Midnight, all the falling snow will have moved off to
our east and just the potential of blowing snow will remain
through Wednesday morning when the pressure gradient looses and
winds relax. The weather will be quiet then, until early next week.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Temperatures will dip mid week to the single digits to 20s for
highs through Thursday as the upper level pattern is northern
flow, with surface high pressure. Overnight lows will be below
zero in the east but not cold enough for a wind chill advisory.
Friday the flow turns zonal with a thermal ridge at 850mb.
Temperatures will warm back into the 30s and 40s into the weekend.
Sunday night the flow turns back to the northwest, cooling
temperatures and bringing and clipper system through North Dakota with
a chance of snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 914 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
MVFR/IFR ceilings will prevail at all terminals except KXWA this
evening and through much of the night, with expected improvement
to VFR from west to east late tonight through Wednesday morning.
Visibility restrictions as low as IFR can also be expected at
times this evening into the late night hours from light snow,
blowing snow, freezing mist, or any combination thereof. Strong
northerly winds will continue through tonight, diminishing from
northwest to southeast on Wednesday.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight
for NDZ005-012-013-019>022-033>035-040>045.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ023-025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Hollan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
901 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Transition from rain to snow quickly crashing in on the I-29
corridor as of mid evening with snow or rain/snow mix now being
reported at KBKX and KFSD. At the same time, 30+ kt wind gusts
have worked into the same area with 40+ kt gusts observed West
River. In general, initial 00z model suite continues to paint an
area from near/just east of the James River to near/just west of
I-29 as the area of most persistent deformation zone precipitation
into the early overnight hours with perhaps the need for a slight
eastward adjustment based on current radar trends. Initial wet
surface may slow snow accumulations but webcams west of I-29 show
accumulation has succeeded (albeit likely fairly wet/slushy
accumulation currently). Have made an initial round of changes to
adjust the higher axis of POPs and QPF into the previously
mentioned zone which raised snow amount in this area and lowered
further west.
Biggest forecast quandary remains how widespread and persistent
any blizzard or near blizzard conditions will be. With the wet
nature of the snow, suspect most severe visibility impacts will be
during periods of falling snow of which there may only be a
couple/few hour overlap between this falling snow and strongest
winds. The one exception to this may be along the Hwy 14 corridor
from Brookings to Marshall. 00z HREF probabilities for blizzard
conditions remain subdued at 10-30%. With all of this in mind,
feel that localized and brief near blizzard conditions are
certainly possible into the overnight hours for locations for
areas from Freeman to Madison to Brookings to Marshall but
question whether these conditions will be widespread for a long
enough period to warrant an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning. For
now, have increased the wording the the going Winter Weather
Advisory and will monitor short term trends as the transition
continues.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Rain changes to snow from west to east this evening.
2. Northwesterly winds increase during the overnight period, and
this in combination with the falling snow will result in
hazardous driving conditions.
3. Breezy and colder on Wednesday with patch blowing snow.
4. Moderating temperatures for the end of the week into the
weekend.
TONIGHT: Current radar and obs indicating light to moderate rain
lifting northward across the CWA this afternoon - this associated
with a surface low presently situated over central SD and an upper
level low lifting through KS and NE. Latest hi-res guidance shows
this rain continuing through 00Z, then changing to snow from west to
east during the evening as colder air is pulled into the system
when the surface low moves to the east. The general consensus
among hi-res models and soundings would be for the changeover to
begin through the western James River Valley shortly after 00Z,
toward the Interstate 29 corridor around 03Z, then in areas to the
east toward 06Z. Of note, the HRRR is the slowest model in terms
of the changeover, being slightly slower in bringing the colder
air eastward. Overall snow amounts have not changed significantly
over the previous forecast (though perhaps slightly lower in some
areas in response to a slightly slower rain to snow changeover).
Any snow that does occur will be light to moderate, with latest
HREF ensembles showing hourly snowfall rates running around a half
an inch or less. In terms of actual snow amounts, the greatest
amounts look to reside roughly through the Highway 14 corridor
with 2 to perhaps localized 4 inches possible. Amounts will be
less south of there. Perhaps the bigger issue will be the winds,
increasing from west to east after 00Z with the onset of cold air
advection/an increasing surface pressure gradient/and increasing
winds aloft. NBM winds again looked to be on the higher side, so
tempered them down a bit, though still looking at gusts of 40 to
50 mph overnight. Fortunately, at this time it appears that the
strongest winds may lag the time of heaviest precipitation, though
cannot rule out that there will be some overlap, resulting in an
hour or two of localized near blizzard conditions for areas -
mainly through the Highway 14 corridor into southwestern MN. This
is supported by HREF probs, which remain low for the probability
of the combination of winds greater than 35 mph and visibility
less than 1/4 a mile - which would constitute blizzard conditions.
That being said, the higher probs for this combination are over
southwestern MN - though it looks to be for a short duration.
This will have to be monitored through the evening. It should be
noted however, as mentioned in the previous forecast the wet
nature of the snow may preclude snow actually blowing around, with
the lowest visibilities occurring during actual falling snow.
In terms of headlines, current headlines remain appropriate for a
combination of wind and snow, though trends will have to be
monitored during the overnight for near blizzard conditions as
mentioned above.
WEDNESDAY: Precipitation should be out of our area by 12Z Wednesday
as the upper and surface lows slide into the western Great Lakes
region. Strong cold air advection behind the exiting system will
result in much colder temperatures with highs in the teens to lower
20s. It will remain breezy, through winds will slowly come down
through the day as the surface gradient relaxes and winds aloft
taper downward.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Second wave on the backside of the departing low pressure system
continues to be poised to move through the central Plains and
Midwest states Wednesday evening. Weak quasi-geostrophic (QG) lift
will be in place but the better lift looks to remain just south and
east of the area. The main wild card in terms of lift comes down to
an area of frontogenesis (FGEN) at 700 mb. Medium range guidance
shows slight deviations in where this band sets up. BUFKIT soundings
also depict mostly saturated profiles with a saturated dendritic
growth zone (DGZ) as temperatures cool. Snow ratios look to be
around 15-17:1, indicating a lighter fluffy snow. However, soundings
will also be slowly drying through the overnight hours, resulting in
snow dwindling to very light snow / flurries come Thursday morning.
On top of this, hi-res guidance varies in how far north the light
snow reaches with some members scrapping our southern forecast area
during the Wednesday evening and overnight time frame and others
keeping any precip completely out of our area. WPC super ensemble
plumes show a wide spread in snowfall totals, though with most
clustering at or below an inch. SREF plumes are a bit higher with
its plumes clustering between 0-3 inches. These plumes are known to
have a high bias so am not putting as much weight into them. Given
this lingering uncertainty in where this light snow may fall, have
continued with model blended chance PoPs for this time frame. Any
snow that does fall will result in only light accumulations from a
dusting up to around an inch across the highway-20 corridor and
adjacent areas.
Aside from light snow chances, northerly winds will be on the
decline as Tuesday`s system continues to push off to the northeast,
relaxing the surface pressure gradient (SPG). Could still see gusts
up to 20-30+ mph, with the strongest gusts occurring Wednesday
evening. Low temperatures overnight will fall to the low teens to
single digits come Thursday morning.
Thursday looks quiet as the base of the upper level trough moves
through overhead. This will result in below average highs, barely
warming to the teens and 20s. Some breaks in the clouds is possible
but a weak, strung out vort lobe will be advecting into the area
with just enough moisture to keep mid level clouds locked in place,
continuing the trend of partly cloud to cloudy days.
With the wave out of here on Friday, temperatures will begin to
rebound into the upper 20s to possible low 40s west of the Missouri
River along with mostly clear skies in place, making for a much more
comfortable day. This is supported by the GFS, Euro, and Canadian
ensembles as they all show near to above average high temperatures.
Lows look to fall to teens and low 20s overnight.
Mainly zonal flow sets up over the weekend, keeping a somewhat
persistent dry, westerly flow aloft locked in place. Above average
temperatures look to continue through the weekend and into early
next week along with dry conditions. This is again supported by
ensembles which continue to show near to above average temperatures
this weekend. Medium range guidance begins to diverge beginning next
week but Monday looks like it will be another warm day before cooler
conditions return for the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Rain currently ongoing mainly east of the James River will pivot
slightly westward this evening with a changeover to snow from west
to east thru the evening. Meanwhile, within this area of rain,
IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsbys will continue. Northwesterly winds
will also be on a rapid increase from west to east with gusts to
around 40 kts at times into Wednesday morning. During periods of
blowing snow, vsbys at or below 1/2 mile are possible,
particularly toward the Hwy 14 corridor. Precipitation will end
prior to daybreak with an improvement toward MVFR conditions for
Wednesday. Winds will remain breezy through Wednesday but should
peak overnight.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ071.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ038-050-
052>054-057>061-063>070.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ039-040-
055-056-062.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-097-098.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ090.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ001.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ002-003-012-013.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ020-031.
NE...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kalin
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Meyers
AVIATION...Kalin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
732 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures remain above average through the week before
peaking on Thursday into Friday as ridging builds along the
East Coast. A strong cold front crosses the area on Friday,
bringing an end to the near record warmth. This front will bring
mostly rain to the region with cooler temperatures arriving on
Saturday. High pressure builds across New England for next
weekend, with warmth likely returning early next week once the
high slides offshore.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
715pm Update...Temps have come down quickly off their highs
today, as have winds. Will continue to monitor temp trends, but
so far conditions are quite good for radiational cooling over
the next 3 to 6 hours. That is, until a shelf of cirrus
advancing towards the region from the SW. Trends will be a
little trickier after midnight once this cloud cast is overhead,
as it will likely hamper cooling a bit, but not cut it off
completely. Also competing will be light winds becoming
southerly to bring WAA and moisture in. Some hires guidance is
hinting at lower vis across the southern Kennebec Valley after
midnight. This would be fog development, but would really rely
on near sfc temps falling quickly before midnight and enough
moisture getting pushed onshore once winds swing around. RAP and
some past runs of HRRR depict this, but will continue to
monitor later runs.
Previous Discussion...
Upslope snow showers across the mountains diminish late this
afternoon as high pressure builds into New England. Downslope
winds across the lower elevations have brought warm temperatures
this afternoon with southern areas warming to near 50 degrees.
Overall this warm trend is expected to continue overnight with
temperatures likely only falling to near freezing across
southern areas.
The ridge axis passes overhead tonight, allowing winds to ease
through the evening. With a warm airmass in place, temperatures
should locally range widely tonight between low spots and areas
of snow cover and higher locations. With that in mind, the
overall trend is for expected lows to dip into the mid teens
across the north, and near freezing across southern and coastal
areas, but wide jumps of around ten degrees are likely overnight
within very short distances. High clouds start to spill in late
tonight as a warm front approaches from the southwest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front sweeps northeastward tomorrow morning as low
pressure moves into the Great Lakes and helps further enhance a
warm airmass across the region. The high-res guidance has been
consistent over the last few runs with bringing a narrow band of
precipitation through with this front, with showers across
southern areas and a light wintry mix further north where
surface temperatures are cooler. The column will have to
saturate before any of this could reach the ground, and with it
being such a brief period of precip there is some limited
confidence that this would actually be possible. With this in
mind, POPs were generally kept to chance for tomorrow morning
until a stronger signal arises for this brief and minor feature
generating enough precip to reach the ground.
After the front passes through, temperatures soar into the low
to mid 50s across southern areas tomorrow afternoon, with 40s
expected elsewhere. Temps are going to be about 7C warmer than
today at 925mb tomorrow afternoon, but cloud cover looks like it
will limit just high the temps will be able to climb. With a
little more sunshine, upper 50s would easily be possible across
southern New Hampshire, and are not out of the question.
Southwesterly flow continues tomorrow night as high pressure
slides offshore and the low tracks through the Great Lakes.
Southern areas likely stay very warm for this time of year, with
lows holding in the 40s. Closer to the mountains and inland
areas with snow cover, there are likely to be times when the
wind eases that temperatures will be able to fall to near
freezing overnight, then warming again by ten degrees when the
wind returns. So overall a see-saw pattern of temperatures
likely yields lows in the low to mid 30s across inland snow
covered areas, while the snow-free regions see lows mainly in
the 40s. POPs also increase along the Canadian border tomorrow
night as a weak wave passes through southern Quebec, bringing
the chance for some scattered showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We continue to be on track for near record warm temperatures
Thursday as a warm front ahead of low pressure over the Ohio Valley
pushes north of the area on Thursday. This along with high pressure
over the western Atlantic Ocean will result in a warming southwest
wind direction. With existing record high temperatures cooler on
Thursday than Friday (see climate section below), there is a better
chance of breaking record highs on Thursday. In addition with most
of the region remaining well in the warm sector Thursday Night,
record warm low temperatures are possible. While Thursday will
be mainly dry, showers will become likely Thursday night and
Friday as low pressure moves northeast up the St. Lawrence
Valley. This westerly track will keep the precipitation showery
with the steadiest precipitation remaining to our north and
west. A cold front associated with this system will sweep across
the area during Friday Morning. It looks less likely that
records will fall Friday due to the fact that the records are
higher and the cold front will likely cross the area in the
morning thereby limiting warmth...although southern most NH and
SW Maine will still be above normal for highs. Conversely over
the mountains and north falling temperatures may lead to some
light snow accumulations. Precipitation amounts should be
rather light...generally around quarter of an inch.
Showers will come to an end Friday Afternoon and evening. High
pressure over the nations mid section will result in a colder
northwest flow Saturday which will ease some on Sunday. Expect dry
conditions over the weekend. Early next week low pressure will move
well north and west of the area through Canada. A weak front
pivoting around this system may result in some showers Monday into
Tuesday.
Global models are in general agreement with the above scenario`s.
Generally followed the NBM but raised lows for Thursday night. Also
lowered highs for Friday over Northern areas due to quicker
cold frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Primarily VFR conditions continuing at all
terminals through tomorrow night. Light and variable winds this
evening, becoming southerly. Some southwest gusts to 25kts are
possible during the daytime tomorrow. Ceilings lower tomorrow
morning for a period, but are expected to remain at VFR heights.
Long Term...MVFR conditions Thursday with a few showers late over
southern NH. MVFR with areas of IFR Thursday Night into Friday with
scattered rain showers region wide...changing to snow showers over
the Mountains. MVFR to VFR conditions returning Friday Night
through Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure builds across the waters tonight.
The high moves east tomorrow morning and increasing
southwesterly flow brings SCA conditions again tomorrow evening
and tomorrow night.
Long Term...Conditions below SCA Thursday and Thursday Night. SCA
conditions later Thursday Night and Friday possible building to
Gales over the outer waters late Friday and Friday evening with
SCA`s continuing into early Saturday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Well above normal temperatures are expected later this week.
Current forecasts would keep highs below records for Wednesday.
However...warmer temperatures on Thursday suggest a a better shot at record
highs. Below are the record high temperatures for Thursday.
Portland, ME: 51F in 1981
Augusta, ME: 53F in 2006
Concord, NH: 59F in 2006
Thursday Min Max:
Portland, ME: 39F in 1984
Augusta, ME: 37F in 1984
Concord, NH: 40F in 1984
The records for Friday are below although it is looking less likely
that these records will fall.
Portland, ME: 58F in 1981
Augusta, ME: 57F in 1981
Concord, NH: 59F in 2022
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Clair/Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Lulofs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
542 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 227 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Dry weather expected for tonight as current upper level low pressure
system races northeast away from Kansas.
Meanwhile the next upper level low pressure system currently over
Nevada will move east across the Rockies tonight and eject out into
western Kansas by Wednesday night. Snow will begin to fall Wednesday
morning over western Kansas and spread eastward into central Kansas
during the mid to late afternoon hours. The snow intensity looks to
ramp up Wednesday evening due to combination of vertical motion
being maximized in dendritic snow growth zone, and steeper lapse
rates/frontogenesis in the mid-levels yielding moderate to heavy
snow at times with a 4 to 7 hour duration over central Kansas. There
could also be a brief period of a sleet/snow mix across parts of
south central Kansas into the Flint Hills(Kingman to Cottonwood
Falls line) during the Wednesday evening hours. This winter mix
transition zone will quickly change over to all snow and shift
eastward into southeast Kansas as deeper colder air removes the
elevated warm nose aloft. Another concern will be the winds causing
some blowing and drifting of snow over central Kansas where the
heaviest snow amounts are forecast. We will keep the current winter
storm watch going which continues to message our highest confidence
area that could see the biggest winter weather impacts. Highest snow
amounts of 4 to 6 inches are still likely over central Kansas with
lower amounts expected over southern Kansas.
Snow is expected to taper off over Kansas Thursday morning as the
upper level system races to the northeast. Cold below normal
temperatures will be in place for Friday, especially for the fresh
snow pack areas across central/south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Dry weather conditions and a nice warming trend look to prevail
across the region for this weekend into Monday. Models show the
upper level pattern transitioning to a northwest flow regime and a
push of colder air possibly arriving on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Winds will gradually turn westerly this evening, becoming
northerly later tonight into Wednesday morning, as a cold front
moves in from the north. Increasing cold advection from the north
should support MVFR ceilings later tonight through tomorrow,
especially across central Kansas. Unsure how far south these MVFR
ceilings will reach later tonight-Wednesday, with the RAP and NAM
supporting these low clouds reaching down into southern Kansas,
while the GFS is not nearly as bullish. Light snow should commence
across central Kansas by late afternoon/early evening Wednesday,
as the next storm system approaches from the southwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Combination of warmer temperatures and gusty winds will create
very high grassland fire danger levels across much of the region
for Saturday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 33 45 19 34 / 0 10 90 10
Hutchinson 32 40 17 32 / 0 30 90 10
Newton 32 43 17 31 / 0 10 90 20
ElDorado 33 46 19 32 / 0 10 90 20
Winfield-KWLD 34 51 21 36 / 0 10 60 10
Russell 28 31 15 30 / 0 70 100 10
Great Bend 29 34 15 31 / 0 70 100 10
Salina 30 37 16 32 / 0 30 100 20
McPherson 31 39 16 31 / 0 30 90 20
Coffeyville 36 56 25 35 / 0 0 30 10
Chanute 35 52 23 33 / 0 0 50 20
Iola 35 51 22 32 / 10 0 60 20
Parsons-KPPF 36 55 24 34 / 0 0 40 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning for KSZ032-033-047>051.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ072-094>096-
098>100.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
727 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Windy conditions will continue tonight as south to southeast
winds gust 35 to 45 mph this afternoon and tonight, and turn
southwest overnight. Rain showers will continue into this evening
before conditions dry out overnight. Lows tonight will be in the
40s for most areas, followed by highs ranging from lower 40s
northwest of the Illinois River to lower 60s south of I-70
Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Lots of items under consideration for the evening update.
1) Wind concerns:
After some gusts 40-45 mph or so over the last few hours, a
significant tailing off of the wind has been occurring over the
western and southern reaches of the forecast area, especially as
skies cleared out. VAD winds from our radar still show 50-60 knots
around 2,000 feet, though this is not working its way down to the
surface. Working out the specifics with neighboring offices on
trimming back on the wind advisory, most likely by the top of the
hour. Still some concerns with the I-74 corridor area between
Peoria and Danville and will likely let that ride longer.
2) Rain concerns:
The rain exited quite a bit faster than earlier projected, with
most areas dry before 7 pm. However, a small area of showers with
embedded thunderstorms is lifting northeast from central Missouri.
Latest HRRR forecast soundings show a couple hundred joules of
MUCAPE west of the Illinois River by 9-10 pm. With the increase in
showers across the northwest CWA again late evening, have also
introduced a mention of isolated thunder in this region. Latest
high-res guidance has most of this activity north of the forecast
area by 1 am or so.
3) Sky concerns:
Despite the extensive clearing as of late, nighttime microphysics
imagery is showing a fairly widespread expansion of stratocumulus
up from southern Illinois, not to mention the clouds associated
with the Missouri showers. Sky trends have been updated a couple
times already to reflect the clearing. A more widespread increase
in clouds is expected over the northern CWA overnight associated
with the upper low currently in western Iowa.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Low pressure centered over KS this afternoon continues to lift
northeastward toward the upper Midwest, and has spread shower
activity, albeit light, into central IL this afternoon. More
widespread and heavier showers should arrive late this afternoon
through mid-evening, bringing tenth to quarter inch rainfall
amounts. These showers should exit the area by midnight. More
significant will be the winds, with south- southeast winds
continuing to strengthen with the approach of the low and
stronger pressure gradients, as well as somewhat better mixing
potential with an inversion dissipating with cooler temperatures
aloft. Although winds may trend down for a few hours late in the
evening, the passage of a cold front should bring cold advection
in the early morning hours that could extend windy conditions, or
potentially bring some of the strongest winds of this storm from
around 3 to 6 am for areas east of I-55 & north of I-70. Have
extended the wind advisory to 9 am for these areas, while the
remainder of central/southeast IL maintain the wind advisory until
3 am. Temperatures tonight will be fairly mild, especially this
evening, then lowering late in the night. Still only expecting
lows around 40 from I-55 westward upward to lower 50s south of
I-70. Cold advection Wednesday should hold temperatures down to
the 40s for many areas north of I-72, but still some milder 50s to
the south and as high as lower 60s south of I-70 should take
place.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
The next storm system, currently digging into the southwest US,
will track toward the I-70 corridor in Illinois for early
Thursday, with precipitation likely to be from early Thursday
morning through Thursday afternoon. Concerns with this system
mainly revolve around precipitation type for areas north of I-72,
and thunderstorm potential south of I-72, especially south of
I-70. A few to several hundred J/kg CAPE could arrive from I-70
southward early Thursday morning through around noon, depending on
exact storm track, combined with strong shear, and this could
develop some severe thunderstorms for which SPC has a Marginal
Risk outlined. Farther to the northwest, it appears a warm nose
wrapping around the low center will spread over subfreezing
surface temperatures for a time Thursday morning around the
Illinois River Valley, and this could bring some mix of wintry
precipitation and freezing rain. So far, ice accumulation looks to
be light. Snow accumulation could range up to a few inches
northwest of the Illinois River, and an inch wouldn`t be out of
the question for areas north of I-72 and west of I-55.
The large gradient in temperatures will obviously continue across
the area Thursday, with highs from mid 30s west of the Illinois
River to near 60 south of I-70, the cold air behind Thursday`s
system will sweep across the entire area by Friday, for highs
ranging from upper 20s to mid 30. The cold temperatures look to be
short-lived, with highs rebounding to upper 40s and 50s Saturday
through Monday as southerly flow returns. Next chances for
precipitation look to be Monday into Tuesday as another low
pressure system tracks into the area from the Pacific NW and
northern Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
MVFR ceilings have mainly been in narrow corridors associated with
heavier rain showers as of late, but there is some potential for
this to expand over eastern Illinois for a few hours this evening.
Further west, a brief clearing trend will take place, but ceilings
increase again later in the evening. Looking into the overnight
hours, a more widespread cloud deck around 1500-2000 feet is
expected to move into the region from the northwest. Impacts are
most likely at KPIA/KBMI, but there is some potential for the
fringe of the cloud deck to reach KSPI/KDEC toward 12Z. Improving
ceilings are expected during the afternoon.
In terms of wind, winds are starting to pick up as the rain ends,
with recent gusts to 37 knots at KPIA/KSPI. Local radar wind
profile is showing 50 knot winds as low as 2,000 feet and some of
these winds may help enhance the surface gusts. While starting off
from the south, a trend toward the west/southwest will occur
overnight. By midday, a more substantial tapering of the wind will
spread from southwest to northeast.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ027>031-036-037-
040-041-047>052-061-062-066>068-071>073.
Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ038-042>046-
053>057-063.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
851 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
...Update.
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
KEY MESSAGES...
* Strong storm system currently centered across KS will move
northeast away from the area tonight. Strong gusty northwest winds
can be expected tonight into the first half of Wednesday in the
wake of the system.
* A second system will cross KS and southern NE Wednesday afternoon
and night bringing snow to those areas.
* Warmer weather returns this weekend to the region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
A forecast update is in place for wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph this
evening. The wind gust forecast leans on the HRRR model which
shows a corridor of strong wind gusts swinging through ncntl
Nebraska. Winds should subside around midnight or early in the
morning. Sporadic high wind gusts may develop; KBBW ASOS gusted
to 58 mph around 7 pm this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 304 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
First system continues to to move northeastward across the Central
and Southern Plains this afternoon. This is a very moist system with
high PWATS streaming northward from the Gulf within warm conveyor
located across the Missouri River Valley. Lack of cold air with this
system is keeping most of the precipitation rain. The exception is
dynamic cooling processes on the immediate western side of the
closed upper circulation where some wet snow is found. This has been
occurring across western KS this afternoon. As the closed
circulation moves into eastern NE this evening expect a change over
to wet snow across eastern portions of north central NE. Expecting
little accumulation however with all precipitation ending by
midnight. The other story will be the strong northwest winds that
develop this evening. A deep surface low will be located across
eastern NE this evening, with a cold front surging southeastward
across western and north central NE. Bufkit sounding data suggests
wind gusts of 45-50 mph possible across portions of north central NE
and 40-45 across the rest of the area. CAA will be strong tonight
with temperatures falling quickly into the teens overnight. Little
recovery in temperatures are expected Wednesday with struggling to
reach much above 20F.
The next system will arrive Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night. This is a potent system as well but moisture will not be as
plentiful. Still it is a dynamic system and snow is expected to
materialize. Much of the moisture will be carried from the Pacific
and be located in the mid-levels. So expect a top down type
saturation event and a rather sharp northern cut off to the
accumulating snow. This cutoff will be located across southwest NE
and should stay south of I-80 according to most Hi-Res models. Snow
could be locally heavy within area of strong FGEN that should be
located near the NE/KS border. Appears our southern 3 counties stand
a good chance of accumulation greater than 3" and have issued a
winter weather advisory to account for this. As mentioned though the
cutoff will be sharp to the north, with little accumulation expected
along I-80 where drier air will be in place. Any slight northward
shift could bring more snow closer to I80 however and will be
monitored. System departs Wednesday night with snow ending by
midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Upper level ridging builds across the western CONUS late this week
and then flattens to more zonal flow during the weekend. A return to
very mild weather with Sunday having potential to reach 50F across
parts of the area. Flow aloft then transitions to northwest early
next week with a series of cold fronts bringing an end to the mild
weather. It`s unclear how the pattern will evolve. The GFS and EC
handle the upper level energy differently, with the EC holding much
of the energy off the west coast and much drier for our area as a
result. All guidance though suggest it will be much colder late next
week as a batch of arctic air plunges southward into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
The main concern at both sites will be strong winds continuing into
Wednesday afternoon. North northwest gusts up to 35 to 40 knots will
continue through the overnight with winds beginning to decrease by
late morning. Gusts up to 25 to 30 knots will be possible though
through Wednesday afternoon before completely diminishing after
sunset. For KLBF, light snowfall will move in south of I-80 tomorrow
afternoon as well. Majority of the precipitation will remain south
of the terminal, but a few isolated snow showers may briefly impact
the airport in the afternoon and early evening. Any accumulations
should be under an inch but reductions in visibility will be likely
due to falling snow.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ Wednesday to 6
AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday for NEZ069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...Taylor
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Kulik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
935 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 928 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023
The concern today has been the winds which prompted a Wind Advisory
to be issued yesterday for tonight. As the low level jet has
increased this evening, we have had some gusty winds. We even had
a isolated reading or two above 40 mph, but overall gusts are
falling short of the earlier forecast as an inversion is forming
above the ground. There is still time to see increased wind gusts
later tonight, but it`s beginning to look less likely the region
will see widespread criteria level winds. Paducah has already
dropped their advisory. If trends continue, it`s likely we will
drop the wind advisory early.
.Short Term (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023
Key Messages:
- Strong gusty winds expected, especially this evening
- Light rain showers this evening
- Near record warm temperatures
Discussion: The first of two distinct storm systems affecting the
country will bring its influence to us late this afternoon and
evening. Already seeing some very light radar returns across the
region now in a weak warm-frontal type lift ahead of the system.
Expect another wave of isentropic lift this evening to bring in some
light rains across the region. This lift will be brief over our
area, so only expecting at most a couple tenths of an inch of precip
through daybreak Wednesday.
The more significant sensible weather will be the gusty winds this
evening. High-res guidance shows 50-60 kt winds at 925 mb, with the
ARW and HRRR showing ~60 kt winds moving across central KY south of
the Parkways. Will have to monitor for a short-fused High Wind
Warning south of I-64 this evening. HREF 90th percentile gusts are
in the 55-60 mph range before midnight for central Kentucky, so it`s
not out of the realm of possibility, but not enough confidence to
upgrade at this time...especially given a bit less wind so far this
afternoon compared to guidance.
As the first system departs early Wednesday, we`ll be solidly in the
warm sector for the daytime period. Expecting near record high
temperatures (see Climate section below) as well as dry and breezy
conditions. The dry and breezy part of that helps in a decision to
lean towards the warm side of the guidance envelope...especially for
the northern half of the forecast area, where skies should have less
cloud coverage.
.Long Term (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023
Key Messages:
- Strong to severe storms possible late Wednesday night and Thursday
- Unseasonably warm and breezy through Thursday
Wednesday Night...
A mid/upper level trough propagates eastward over the central Plains
Wednesday night. Favorable upper level divergence is noted across
the MO and Lower OH Valleys, especially within the right entrance
region of an intensifying upper level jet streak over the Great
Lakes. Meanwhile, an impressive 100 kt SW speed max at 500 mb will
stream from Oklahoma across Missouri. Sfc low pressure over central
OK around 00z Thu is forecast to reach SEMO by 12z Thu, with a warm
front extending northeast through southern Indiana.
Wednesday night starts off dry at 00z, but rain and thunderstorm
chances will increase from south to north after 05z Thu. An initial
band of convection is likely to push into southern KY around 06z Thu
on the nose of a 45-50 kt SW LLJ. This first wave may stay primarily
elevated with a low-level inversion in place. Modest elevated
instability does look likely and will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Deep-layer and low-level shear are both quite strong,
with a veering hodograph in the lowest 1 km. An elongated hodograph,
in addition to backing between 2-4 km, should support splitting
storms. Left movers could be capable of marginally severe hail.
However, the main severe weather risk Wednesday night develops
immediately behind/south of the initial band. Additional sct to num
showers and storms should spread NE from western TN and could be
rooted at the sfc by 09-12z Thu. Weak sfc-based instability is most
likely along and south the Ohio River and roughly along and west of
the I-65 corridor (southwestern quadrant of CWA), which lines up
pretty nicely with the new SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk. Isolated
damaging winds and/or a brief tornado would be the main threats with
stronger convection.
Thursday...
The threat for strong to severe storms spills into Thursday with
ongoing convection at 12z. Strong SW flow will continue to advect
warm, moist air into the region ahead of the cold front, which is
forecast to sweep across the area Thursday evening. At this point,
it is not yet clear if there will be two or three distinct "waves"
of convection on Thursday. After morning convection, at least one
lull seems likely. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
in the afternoon ahead of the cold front. A modest plume of MLCAPE
will be in place in the warm sector. Ensemble probabilities suggest
a 50-60% chance for greater than 150 J/kg SBCAPE. A narrow corridor
of 200-250+ J/kg seems probable with sfc dewpoints approaching 60 F.
Sfc low pressure should continue northeastward from SEMO across
central Indiana during the day. There is a bit less low-level
veering as we move into the afternoon and evening hours, with the
sfc warm front remaining just off to the north. Still, plenty of
shear in place to support both low-topped supercells and bowing line
segments. Damaging winds and short-lived tornadoes are both on the
table.
Thursday Night and Beyond...
After a warm, breezy, and at times stormy Thursday, much colder air
spills into the region Thursday night behind the cold front. Lows in
the upper 20s to lower 30s are expected Friday morning. Clouds
should linger into Friday morning, with an improving trend later in
the day. Afternoon highs will be limited to the mid/upper 30s. Cool
weather continues into the weekend as high pressure builds over the
region. Expect Saturday morning to be the chilliest with readings
well below freezing. Afternoon highs will then warm each day this
weekend into early next week. 60+ degrees looks likely by Monday,
which is also when the next chance for rain arrives.
&&
.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023
IMPACTS:
- Gusty 30+ kt winds
- LLWS with strong low-level jet
Discussion: Forecast remains on track as main impacts are expected
from wind and low level wind shear. SSE winds are currently
beginning to gust over 20 knots over southern Indiana and central
Kentucky. Gusts are expected to increase to around 30-35 knots as
winds veer towards the SW in the coming hours. A strong low-level
jet will cause LLWS during most of the overnight hours. Rain showers
will move through the region, but ceilings and visibilities are
expected to remain in VFR ranges.
&&
.Climate...
Updated at 200 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023
A mild and breezy weather pattern will set up over the region
through mid week, and some record temperatures could be in jeopardy
as a result. The most likely records to be broken would be high
temperatures on Wednesday, although some warm minimum temperatures
could be at risk Wednesday as well. Right now, it appears the warm
min records will stay just out of reach, but this pattern usually
promotes very mild overnights. Thursday`s warm min records are not
in jeopardy, thanks to the cool down expected Thursday afternoon and
evening.
================== Near-Record High Temperatures ==================
Wednesday 2/15/2023
Max T Fcst/Record (Year) Min T Fcst/Record (Year)
Louisville: 75/74 (2018) 57/62 (2018)
Bowling Green: 76/77 (2018) 57/63 (2018)
Lexington: 75/76 (1945) 55/60 (2018)
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday for KYZ023>043-
045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday for INZ076>079-
083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........KDW
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EBW
Aviation.......KDW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
943 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Conditions remain mixed in the low levels this evening, more so
than normally would be expected after dark. The low level jet has
maximized over northeast Illinois, and thus occasional wind gusts
to 45 mph, and a few sporadic gusts in the lower 50 mph range,
including at Chicago O`Hare recently with a 1-minute ob at 48 kt
(55 mph). These gusts have also been maximized in the urban areas
that are a bit warmer.
We have correspondingly bumped up the start of the Wind Advisory
for areas south of I-80 but including Cook/DuPage this evening,
even though widespread wind gusts of 45-50 mph have been somewhat
limited away from the metro area. This seemed prudent given the
band of showers over west central IL will encounter this higher
low level jet maximum and may be able to overperform what they`ve
been doing upstream.
There will likely be a lull in winds after this band of showers
moves through overnight. A lightning strike cannot be ruled out,
but given the main instability axis skirts the area to the
northwest, this would be the exception. Latest AMDAR soundings do
have a bit of a warm nose at 3000 ft, but there is still 50+ kt of
winds below that, so we will have to watch the 11pm - 2am window
for some sporadic higher gusts from these showers.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1258 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Through Wednesday night...
CONUS satellite imagery augmented by a recent hand surface and RAP
analyses depict a maturing surface cyclone over the Southern Plains
within the left exit region of an intensifying 150 kt 250mb jet
streak across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Arcs of showers
continue to expand near and ahead of the developing surface low with
a broad (and intensifying) WAA regime. The first showers are now
crossing northern Illinois, though the dry low-level airmass
(characterized by surface T/Td spreads of 15-20 degrees) has thus
far chewed up most raindrops. Continued top-down moistening via
evaporation should eventually allow for raindrops to start dotting
the ground this afternoon. The next band of rain is much broader and
encompasses much of Iowa and Missouri, and is on track to reach our
area around or just after sunset. Accordingly, we are anticipating a
2-4 hour period of showers this evening before tapering takes place
from west to east by 10 PM. As the surface low matures and lifts
northeastward over western Iowa this evening, the low-level pressure
gradient will also tighten allowing for south to southeasterly winds
to gradually intensify with gusts of 30-35 mph becoming common by
sunset.
Tonight, the surface low is expected to reach peak intensity (~984
mb or so) while entering southern Minnesota as a dry slot noses into
the Lower Great Lakes and an impressive 60-70kt 850-700mb LLJ slides
overhead. Cooling mid-level temperatures around the periphery of the
low and mid-level drying within the northeastward-spreading dry slot
will steepen mid-level lapse rates and maintain the integrity of a
pool of 150-250 J/kg of MUCAPE spreading northeastward from Missouri
into northern Illinois. At the same time, a narrow plume of surface
dew points ranging from 45-50 degrees currently in southwestern
Missouri will spread northeastward, causing low-level lapse rates to
improve modestly. Taken together, a band of low-topped convection
originating near the MO/KS/IA borders this evening may survive and
sweep across the area overnight, particularly between 04Z/10PM and
7Z/1 AM. With strong low-level wind field in place (re: LLJ) and
steepening low-level lapse rates (re: low-level moisture advection),
any taller convective shower may efficiently transport wind gusts of
45-50 mph toward the ground. Such a threat appears highest northwest
of Interstate 55 in closer proximity to the cold core of the low and
hence better MUCAPE. After touching base with SPC, we felt the
probability of severe-caliber gusts was too low to warrant a formal
mention in a severe weather outlook, though be aware a "pop" of
winds may accompany any shower overnight.
Toward daybreak, surface winds and gusts are expected to increase
markedly as mixing heights build into the base of the departing low-
level wind field and surface pressures rise some 8-12mb/6 hours.
BUFKIT overviews depict peak momentum transfer of 45-50kt at the top
of the forecast mixing channel, which should support surface wind
gusts of 45-50 mph across much or northern Illinois and northwestern
Indiana. For this reason, we opted to expand the inherited Wind
Advisory to the Wisconsin border with the expectation for the
strongest winds to occur primarily between 6-10 AM CST (we padded
the timing of the official product by 2-3 hours on each side). While
winds will gradually decrease through the afternoon hours, it will
feel much colder than the past few days as temperatures slowly fall
through the 40s and eventually 30s by evening.
Borchardt
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Thursday through Tuesday...
The main weather highlights during the period are:
* Increasing threat for a significant band of accumulating snow
across parts of far northern IL Thursday. Have issued a Winter
Storm Watch for Winnebago, Boone and Ogle counties, where the
greatest threat of 6"+ snow amounts and the most significant
impacts resides.
* Travel impacts also likely south of the watch area, potentially
as far southeast as the I-55 corridor on Thursday as a result
of accumulating ice and snow in a wintry mix.
* Turning sharply colder Friday, but then warming up again into
next weekend.
There continues to be some model differences with the exact track
our next storm system will take on Thursday. While this does
continue to add uncertainty to the finner scale details of the
forecast, a general model/ensemble consensus does point at a
system track that would favor potentially 6"+ snow amounts across
far northern parts of IL (especially near the WI state line), and
a wintry mix south of this heavy snow band across the remainder
of northern IL. While a winter weather advisory will likely be
needed for much of northern IL for Thursday, we have opted to
issue a winter storm watch for Winnebago, Boone and Ogle counties
in far northern IL for Thursday.
A southwest to northeastward oriented baroclinic zone will sag
southward into far northwestern IL and adjacent areas of southern
WI and eastern IA on Wednesday following the departure of the
potent storm system tracking across the Upper Midwest tonight.
This baroclinic zone will be a major driver in the expected band
of heavy snow likely to fall across northern sections of the area
Thursday. Mid-level deformation will strengthen along the storm
systems northwestern periphery as it tracks across central IL into
IN into Thursday, and this will induce what looks to be a rather
impressive southwest to northeast oriented band of 850-700 mb
frontogenesis somewhere right across eastern IA into far northern
IL and southern WI during the day. What potentially makes this
even more interesting is the fact that the frontogenetic response
for upward ascent is likely to occur beneath the favorable
entrance region of a healthy upper level jet over the Upper Great
Lakes. Steepening mid-level lapse rates, and low static stability
will also be favorable for heavy snowfall rates (1"+ per hour)
within this band of snow. As mentioned previously, questions still
remain with the exact placement of the heaviest band of snow.
However, given that our far northwestern counties will be in
close proximity to the main threat area, we felt it prudent to
include them in the winter storm watch.
Areas south of the winter storm watch will not be out of the woods
for travel impacts on Thursday. Northerly surface winds are
expected to drag a subfreezing near surface airmass southward
across much of northern IL through the morning, and this adds
concern for freezing rain and sleet, especially through the
morning as a warm layer aloft will initially be in place across
much of northeastern IL. It also appears that moisture in the DGZ
will be lacking with southward extent over northern IL during the
morning, so freezing drizzle/rain are probable in ares that see
subfreezing temperatures develop (most likely along and northwest
of I-55). Farther south and east temperatures should remain above
freezing through the morning, so any precipitation that falls in
my far southeastern areas should be liquid. While this will not be
a major icing event, minor ice and sleet accumulations are likely
to result in some travel impacts for the Thursday commute,
perhaps as far southeast as around the I-55 corridor. We should
then see a gradual transition over to snow across most areas
through the afternoon on Thursday as better moisture in the DGZ
works eastward with the approach of the main mid-level
disturbance. The precipitation will then end (for most) into
Thursday evening. The only exception to this is that some lake
effect snow showers are likely to persist over parts of Porter
county IN into Friday morning.
Colder air will briefly make a return on Friday as the
aforementioned baroclinic zone shifts southeastward across the
area, making way for a colder air mass to spill in as high
pressure builds across the region. This will be short lived,
however, as southerly to southwesterly flow develops Friday night
into Saturday on the backside of the surface high. This will set
up a quick warm-up and dry period of weather for the weekend.
However, colder and more active weather may make a return the
area into the middle of next week.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Forecast concerns for the terminals...
*Gusty 30 to 40 kt winds through Wednesday afternoon
*Rain showers persisting through early Wednesday morning with
pockets of heavier showers after midnight
*Developing MVFR ceilings this evening lingering through Wednesday
afternoon
A strong 986 mb surface low resides over northern Iowa this
evening which is generating breezy southeasterly winds at the
terminals. While gusts have eased a bit late this afternoon, gusts
are expected to increase into the 30 to 35 kt range this evening
as a stout low-level jet moves overhead. Further intensification
of the winds is expected after 06z this evening in the wake of a
cold front as cold advection allows for better mixing and gusts
to reach into the 35 to 40 kt range. Wind directions will also
become west-southwesterly late this evening behind the cold
front. The gusty winds will persist through Wednesday afternoon
before gusts ease heading into Wednesday evening.
Additionally, a broad area of light to moderate rain continues to
lift northward across Illinois ahead of the aforementioned cold
front. These showers will continue to move through the area this
evening with periods of showers through the night before showers
come to an end early Wednesday morning. While the main area of
rain looks to only cause minor visibility reductions, a more
robust area of convective showers is being observed over western
Missouri and is expected to move into northern Illinois around 05z
this evening. Forecast soundings continue to show that
instability would be increasing as these showers approach which
should allow for a brief period of heavier rainfall, reduced
visibility, and possibly a rumble or two of thunder. Given the
marginal instability have decided to forgo a formal thunder
mention in the TAFs, but did maintain a TEMPO for the heavier rain
and low visibility at RFD, ORD, MDW, and DPA. At this time GYY
looks to remain just south of these convective showers so I have
forgone the lower visibility mention.
Finally, MVFR ceilings are being observed under these areas of
showers and are expected to move over the terminals within the
next couple of hours. While MVFR ceilings are expected to linger
through Wednesday afternoon, there is a chance that some
scattering out of the ceilings may occur Wednesday morning.
Confidence is rather low on this occurring as soundings show
clouds remaining in the 2000 to 3000 ft layer through the rest of
the forecast period, but I did start trending ceilings up towards
the end of the period to account for this potential.
Yack
&&
.MARINE...Issued at 1258 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
As a surface low pressure system currently in southern Kansas
matures and lifts into the Upper Mississippi River Valley
tonight, south to southeasterly winds will increase with gusts of
25-30 kt and a few gale force gusts to 35 kt becoming common
overnight. Winds will shift toward the southwest and increase
markedly toward daybreak Wednesday with gales to 40 kt prevailing
through late morning. Southwesterly to westerly winds will then
fade during the afternoon.
Borchardt
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012 until noon Wednesday.
Winter Storm Watch...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008...3 AM Thursday
to 9 PM Thursday.
Wind Advisory...ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108 until noon
Wednesday.
IN...Wind Advisory...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 until noon
Wednesday.
LM...Gale Warning...nearshore waters until noon Wednesday.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSChicago
www.twitter.com/NWSChicago
www.youtube.com/NWSChicago
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
912 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 826 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Showers continue to linger in portions of northeast Mississippi
this evening but should clear within the next hour or two. In
addition, winds this evening dropped below Wind Advisory criteria,
so went ahead and canceled the Advisory for the entire Mid-South.
Adjusted winds in grids to match recent observations through 15Z.
Temperatures across the region are around 2 degrees below
forecast, so adjusted values through the morning.
Regarding the severe weather potential for Wednesday evening to
Thursday morning, 00Z CAMs are trending towards higher CAPE values
reaching further north and east, with all models showing
1200-1500 J/kg across the Mississippi Delta region. This is a
trend to watch in subsequent runs as higher instability will
likely translate to a greater chance for tornadoes and large hail.
Additional monitoring of this system will occur overnight and
tomorrow, with updates provided as needed.
ANS
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 157 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
A series of low pressure systems will move through the region
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South
over the next seven days. The first system will occur this
afternoon through tonight. A stronger second system will affect
the area Wednesday Night into Thursday bringing the potential for
severe thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in for Friday
into the weekend. Rain chances will return for early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 157 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Currently, showers continue to spread into the Mid-South ahead of
an upper level low pressure system that is tracking from the
Central Plains into the Upper Midwest. There has been a couple of
lightning strikes embedded in the bands of showers. The bigger
story may be the strong southerly winds that are occurring due to
the tight pressure gradient. Have seen numerous observations with
sustained speeds between 25-30 MPH with higher gusts.
Showers will begin to taper off from west to east this evening
along with the winds as the system moves away from the area. The
Wind Advisory will continue through midnight. A lull will occur
through much of the day on Wednesday. Expect mild temperatures
with highs reaching into the lower to mid 70s over much of the
CWA.
A second upper level low pressure system will move out of the
Rockies into the Central Plains by Wednesday Night. At the SFC, a
warm front will begin lifting northward across the Mid-South late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday Night while a SFC low develops
near the Red River Valley. The 12Z CAM model guidance had several
different solutions on the exact track of the SFC low and how far
north the warm front lifts. The HRRR was the most distressful
outcome for the Mid-South showing 1500 J/KG of CAPE surging up the
MS Delta behind the warm front and discrete supercells developing
across the CWA. However, most of the other guidance showed
anywhere from 500 J/KG to a 1000 J/KG. This aligned well with the
GFS ensembles which showed a 90 percent probability of CAPE
values of greater than 500 J/KG. Shear will be more than adequate
as all the CAMS showed helicity values of at least 300 M2/S2. Mid
60 dewpoints will also surge northward into the area. As a result,
there remains a Slight Risk of severe storms Wednesday Night into
Thursday. However, the severe weather potential will be highly
dependent on how unstable the atmosphere will be Wednesday Night
and dependent on the exact track of the SFC low. With so many
uncertainties, please continue to stay tuned to the latest
forecast.
In addition to the severe weather potential, rainfall amounts will
range from 1-2 inches across the region. Many locations
particularly across North Mississippi are seeing standing water
and rivers at high levels. The additional rainfall will aggravate
small streams and could cause rivers to rise to bankfull. Showers
and thunderstorms will taper off from west to east on Thursday.
High pressure will then settle into the Mid-South for the end of
the week into much of the weekend. Temperatures will be chilly on
Friday with highs expected to be in the lower to mid 40s.
Temperatures will then begin to climb each day as the SFC high
moves east and winds turn around back to the south.
Rain chances will then return for early next week as the pattern
becomes unsettled once again.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Primary aviation weather concern through the early overnight
remains post-frontal surface winds and MVFR CIGs. Low level
pressure gradient will relax overnight, with surface to FL020
winds likely falling below LLWS thresholds.
TSRA chances will likely hold off until 03Z/16, based on the most
aggressive CAM guidance (HRRR and FV3). Confidence in warm sector
convection initiation is limited at best. Decided to go with a PROB30
TS mention at MEM rather than categorical or TEMPO in the last
few hours of the TAF.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...KRM
AVIATION...PWB
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Key Messages:
- Rain and snowmelt over frozen ground could lead to rising
river levels, and possibly ice jams on the Platte, Loup and
Elkhorn rivers.
- Rain will change to snow in northeast Nebraska this evening.
Snow combined with winds up to 50 mph and flash freezing of wet
roads will lead to hazardous travel conditions especially in
Knox and Cedar counties.
- There is a small chance (5-10%) for a severe storm or two
between 3 and 7 PM, mainly along and south of a line from
Seward to Plattsmouth to Red Oak. Hail up to the size of
quarters is the primary hazard.
- A band of moderate to heavy snow will fall across southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa late Wednesday through Thursday
morning. 3 to 8 of snow are likely (70% chance) within the
heaviest band of snow where a winter storm watch remains in
effect.
Late this afternoon through tonight:
A vigorous mid/upper-level low over central KS as of midday will
accelerate northeast through the mid-MO Valley this evening in
response to the amplification of an upstream trough over the
Interior West. In the low levels, a surface low will likewise
develop through the area this afternoon into evening with
decreasing clouds and steepening lapse rates promoting air mass
destabilization across portions of southeast NE and southwest IA.
To the north/northwest of the low track, latest short-term models
indicate consolidation of the precipitation field into a
deformation band, which will lift northeast through parts of
northeast NE this evening.
In regard to the strong/severe storm potential this afternoon,
the air mass is destabilizing over southeast NE where breaks in
the clouds have allowed temperatures to warm into the lower 50s.
When coupled with dewpoints in the mid 40s and cold temperatures
aloft, surface-based CAPE values are expected to increase into the
400-600 j/kg range this afternoon. Deepening cumulus clouds are
being observed over Saline, Jefferson, and Gage counties as of 3
PM and latest HRRR forecasts suggest the development of widely
scattered, low-topped storms from that area into far southwest IA
through 6 or 7 PM. Forecast hodographs exhibit modest veering
with height through the lowest 2-3 KM, supportive of some updraft
rotation. Hail up to an inch in diameter is the most likely hazard
with the most intense storms. The absence of a more coherent
surface low and/or surface baroclinic zone (which are often
sources of low-level vorticity in these low-topped storm setups)
is expected to limit the potential for a more robust tornado
threat.
For the snow potential over northeast NE this evening, eventual
amounts will be a function of how quickly colder air in the low
levels spreads into the area. We will maintain similar amounts to
that of the previous forecast with the best potential for 1-3"
being near the SD border. The snow onset will coincide with the
development of strong northwest winds behind a cold front with the
potential for reduced visibilities in falling snow and slick roads
due to snow accumulation and some flash-freeze potential.
The strong winds mentioned above will overspread the area tonight
behind a cold front with gusts of 45 to 55 mph likely over
northeast NE into west-central IA where a wind advisory is in
effect.
Wednesday and Thursday:
On the heels of today`s weather system, another shortwave trough
is forecast to eject northeast into the central Plains Wednesday
night, on the immediate poleward side of a strong midlevel jet
streak. This will be yet another split-flow setup in the midlevels
with still some model uncertainty in exactly how the central
Plains system will interact with an amplifying midlevel wave over
the ND-MN Red River Valley and upper-MS Valley. As a result, we
see model differences in the location and strength of a
frontogenetically forced snow band which is forecast to develop
across the southern half of our area Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night.
While our deterministic forecast will increase snow amounts for
locations along and south of I-80, the ensemble spread (as
depicted by the 25th-75th percentile ranks) will reflect the large
potential range, especially along the I-80 corridor. And due to
that uncertainty, we will maintain the Winter Storm Watch, adding
Saline, Seward, Lancaster, Cass, and Mills Counties. Regardless of
where the heaviest snowfall occurs, we expect that the Thursday
morning commute will be impacted due to the combination of falling
snow and slippery roads. And, those conditions will be exacerbated
by gusty north-northwest winds.
High temperatures Wednesday will range from lower 20s over
northeast NE to lower to mid 30s over southeast NE and southwest
IA. Readings on Thursday will be mainly in the 20s.
Friday and beyond:
The large-scale pattern will favor a warming trend this weekend
with cooler temperatures by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 557 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
A mix of MVFR, and IFR conditions (ceilings 500 to 3000 ft AGL
and visibilities of 1 to 5 SM) will continue in the region through
18Z Wednesday. The lowest visibilities and ceilings will be
focused over northeast Nebraska through 08Z Wednesday. Rain and
snow will be the main hazard in northeast Nebraska (including
KOFK) through 08Z Wednesday. Thunderstorms will remain a hazard
for aviation in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa through
03Z Wednesday.
Gusty northwest winds will occur in the region through 00Z
Thursday. Peak gusts of 40 to 50 kt are possible in northeast
Nebraska (including OFK) between 03Z and 12Z Wednesday. Gusts over
30 kt should linger between 12Z Wednesday and 00Z Thursday. Peak
gusts in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa (including KOMA and
KLNK) should be between 30 and 40 knots through 15Z Wednesday.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050-051-065.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning for NEZ065>068-078-088>093.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM CST Wednesday for NEZ011-012-
016-017-030-031.
IA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ043-055.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning for IAZ079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Albright
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
945 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore tonight. A series of warm fronts
will move across the region Wednesday into Thursday, followed
by a strong cold frontal passage on Friday. High pressure then
builds to the south of the area for the weekend and slides
offshore into early next week. Another weak frontal system
approaches Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A cirrus broken to overcast deck has moved into the region, with
a few mid level clouds as well, as the upper ridge was moving
off the coast and an upper shortwave was moving into the western
Great Lakes. Warm advection was also increasing across the
interior, and will increase overnight/toward morning across the
rest of the region. With the cloud cover temperatures have
responded by slowing radiational cooling, and minor rises,
mainly along the coast. Some guidance is indicating temperatures
may hold nearly steady or slowly rise. Updated temperatures and
dew points to indicate this. And with the warm advection and
increased forcing there will be a chance for a few sprinkle
across Orange county toward morning, as the HRRR is now
indicating, and slightly increased LAV probabilities.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned shortwave will lift out of the Great Lakes
Wednesday and then lift into southeast Canada Wednesday night.
A surface low will also be located well to our north and west
on Wednesday. This system will begin to lift a warm front
north through the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Low
level warm advection will increase through the day on Wednesday
with 30 to 50 kt of flow between 1 and 4 kft, strongest out east
across Long Island.
The main story on Wednesday will be a breezy southerly flow
and unseasonably warm temperatures. Southerly gusts 25-35 mph
are possible, especially over Long Island and near the coast.
Temperatures will rise well into the 50s with lower 60s likely
for the NYC/NJ metro. Have continued to fallow the 50-75th
percentile of the NBM for highs on Wednesday given the mild
synoptic pattern aloft. These temperatures are 15-20 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Records for February 15 are
mainly in the 70s for NYC and 60s along the coast. The record
for Islip, NY is 57 set in 1984 and the current forecast is for
a high of 55 degrees. If temperatures end up a few degrees
warmer, than this record be tied or broken. However, this may be
difficult due to the strong southerly flow off the colder
ocean.
Mostly cloudy conditions will otherwise start the day. There
may also be a few isolated sprinkles mid to late morning, but a
dry subcloud layer will prevent any measurable precip. Have
left mention of sprinkles out of the forecast. Clouds from the
morning will diminish from west to east in the afternoon.
A mild Wednesday night is in store as anomalous ridging will
remain off the eastern seaboard. A stronger shortwave continue
digging across the Plains leaving SW flow both aloft and at the
surface. The warm front should be lifting well north of the area
with just few to scattered high clouds. The gusty winds during
Wednesday will diminish Wednesday evening, but there will likely
still be around 5- 10 mph of SW flow early Thursday morning.
Lows look to only be in the 40s across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes region
on Thursday, will lift northward into eastern Canada during the
day Friday. An associated warm front with this system will lift
northward across the region late Thursday into Thursday night,
followed by a strong trailing cold front on Friday.
Expect a cloudy day Thursday with the approach of the warm
front along with periods of rain. A break in the precipitation
is possible late Thursday evening into Thursday night as the
warm front lifts north and the cold front remains west of the
region. A strong low level jet increases to 45-55kt, bringing in
a very moist airmass for this time of year. PWATS are forecast
to increase to 1.25 inches or greater.
Despite the moist airmass, the cold front is forecast to move
across the region rather quickly late Thursday night into
Friday morning. As a result, there should be a short period of
gusty S/SW winds and heavy shower activity. Will continue to
mention the potential for embedded thunder in the forecast
Thursday into Friday morning. POPs quickly come to an end Friday
afternoon/early evening as the front pushes eastward. As the
front, exits, there remains a very low chance for snow showers
to mix in with the rain just before ending. The best chances for
this will be across the higher terrain north and west of NYC.
A decent southwest flow ahead of the front will allow temperatures
to climb into the 50s and lower 60s on Thursday. While Thursday
is expected to be mostly cloudy, if any break occur (especially
in the early to mid afternoon) and we get some sunshine,
temperatures could be slightly warmer than forecast. For Friday,
highs will be in the lower and middle 50s, however, those highs
are expected to occur early in the day, and temperatures will
gradually fall through the late morning and afternoon.
Behind the cold front, winds veer northwest and colder air
advects in late late Friday and Fri Night on gusty NW winds
(30-40mph) and brings a brief return to temperatures seasonable
for mid-February. The return to seasonable temps Fri Night/Sat
appears short lived as general agreement for a return to zonal
upper flow and high pressure building to the south of the area
Sat Night into Sunday with an mild return flow developing once
again. Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s and lower 40s,
warming into the upper 40s and lower 50s on Sunday.
For Monday and Tuesday, a weak mid level shortwave is forecast
to move out of the Great Lakes region and into the northeast
bringing a warm front close to the area. Precipitation chances
increase through the period, but will limit POPS to chance or
slight chance both days being so far out in the period. With the
continued lack of cold air, ptype will be all rain and amounts
look quite light at this point. High temperatures will continue
to run 5-10 degrees above normal, in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure along the coast moves slowly into the western
Atlantic through Wednesday. Meanwhile, low pressure passes to
the northwest during Wednesday.
VFR.
Light SW winds become S this evening, and light and variable at
the outlying terminals. By late morning speeds at coastal and
metro terminals should increase to 10-15G20kt, with occasional
gusts up to 25kt. Gusts end late Wednesday afternoon with the
winds beginning to veer to SW.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night...VFR. MVFR vsby possible at times E of the NYC
metros late at night/toward Thursday morning.
Thursday...MVFR vsby possible at times E of the NYC metros
early AM. Rain developing in the afternoon with MVFR expected,
IFR possible. S winds 10-15 kt in the afternoon along the coast.
Thursday night...Rain showers likely and slight chance of
thunder. MVFR cond expected, IFR/LIFR possible. SSW winds
increasing to 10-15G20kt by midnight, and 15-20G25-30kt by
daybreak.
Friday...Rain showers likely especially in the morning with MVFR or
lower cond in the morning, gradually improving in the afternoon. SW
winds 15-20G25-30kt, becoming NW 20G30kt kt in the afternoon, then
slowly diminishing late at night.
Saturday...VFR. NW winds 10-15kt, becoming W in the afternoon, then
diminishing at night.
Sunday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Only minor changes were made to the wind speeds over the ocean
waters with the update.
High pressure moving over the waters tonight will lead to
conditions below SCA levels. S-SW flow increases on Wednesday
and should reach SCA criteria in the afternoon and evening.
Mixing will likely be limited by the warmer air moving over the
colder ocean. However, surface winds will likely be around 20 kt
so it will not take much for gusts to reach 25 kt. Ocean seas
will also build through the day and should become 5-7 ft in the
evening. Winds will diminish fairly quickly after sunset, but
ocean seas may remain elevated through much of Wednesday night.
An SCA has been issued on the non-ocean waters from 16z to 23z
Wednesday, and 16z Wednesday - 11z Thursday on the ocean.
While a brief break in the SCA conditions is forecast for
Thursday, winds and seas increase back to SCA levels on the
ocean waters Thursday night out ahead of an advancing cold
front. S to SW winds shift to NW Fri morning with the passage of
the cold front, with SCA conditions expected on all waters.
These conditions are expected to continue into Friday night.
There is a chance for some gale force gusts, particularly on the
ocean with cold air advection. Seas on the ocean likely peak at
7 to 11 ft during this time.
SCA conditions likely remain on the ocean waters through
much of Saturday before winds winds begin to subside. Seas
likely follow suit from west to east Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening. suit. Sub SCA conditions are likely for all
waters on Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Around 1/4 to 1/2" of rain likely Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning, with a reasonable worst case of up to an 1".
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through the end
of the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...BC/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Key Messages:
1. Up to 40-55 mph non-thunderstorm wind gusts expected through
this evening. Rain showers will exit the eastern Missouri Ozarks
by late this afternoon.
2. A small batch of a few thunderstorms will clip portions of
west-central Missouri between about 4 to 8 PM today
3. Thunderstorms possible later Wednesday evening into Wednesday
night over far southern Missouri. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms could occur, with hail up to the size of quarters as
the primary hazard.
4. A light wintry mix for northwest portions of the area late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. No impacts are expected
from the wintry weather.
5. Gusty northwest winds expected on Thursday, ushering in the
coldest air for Friday morning with wind chills in the single
digits to low teens.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Rest of this Afternoon and Evening:
Regional radar imagery as of 3 PM shows the batch of rain showers
from early today having cleared much of the area and will clear
our eastern CWA by 4 PM. Mixing of higher wind gusts down to the
surface with these showers has largely not occurred, with most
gusts having been between 30-45 mph. However, some clearing of
cloud cover is quickly working its way through southwest
Missouri, with the gustier southwest winds expected to ramp back
up later this afternoon into evening. Given a 60-70 knot 850 mb
jet developing during this timeframe, momentum transfer down to
the surface would support frequent wind gusts between 40-55 mph.
Therefore, we have kept the Wind Advisory going through this
evening. Winds will gradually weaken late this evening and
overnight as the low level jet moves northeast of our region due
to the low pressure system sliding into Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Thunderstorm Potential Late this Afternoon:
A small cluster of showers and storms has begun to blossom near
the low pressure center over central Kansas as seen in the latest
radar and satellite imagery. Hi-res model guidance (HREF and it`s
member models) show this convective activity pushing northeast
into portions of west-central Missouri as early as 4 PM and
continuing through around 7-8PM into central Missouri. Most of
these showers and storms look to remain northwest of our area, but
could clip our portion of southeast Kansas and counties
along/north of Highway 54 in west-central Missouri. Surface-based
instability of around 250-500 j/kg and effective bulk shear around
35-50 knots would be enough to produce some isolated to scattered
thunderstorms, though we do not anticipate any severe
thunderstorm threat in our forecast area. The main threat from any
thunderstorms would be occasional lightning.
Tonight:
Mainly clear skies and weakening winds are in store for tonight,
with temperatures remaining mild, ranging from the mid 30s in our
northwest to low 40s in our southeast.
Wednesday:
Strong warm air advection will be ongoing throughout the day on
Wednesday due to southerly winds and mainly clear skies. A
stationary front looks to set up somewhere near or just north of
the I-44 corridor during the day, with the warm sector across
roughly the southern half of our area. Areas south of the front
should see high temperatures approach the mid 60s to low 70s,
while locations north of the front generally remain in the 50s.
Some retreating of this front to the south will occur during the
evening as a surface low approaches southwest Missouri from
Oklahoma, the exact track of the low and retreat of the front is
still somewhat uncertain and will set the stage for
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Wednesday Evening-Thursday:
Some retreating of the aforementioned front to the south will
occur during the evening as a surface low approaches southwest
Missouri from Oklahoma. The exact track of the low and retreat of
the front is still somewhat uncertain and will set the stage for
where the warm sector will be when showers and storms move into
the area late Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. High
resolution model guidance further highlights this uncertainty,
with the HRRR showing scattered thunderstorm activity as far north
as the I-44 corridor, while the NAM nested model keeps
thunderstorm activity completely south of our area. Right now, we
are favoring a more blended approach, which would place the
highest confidence in scattered thunderstorms mainly along and
south of a Cassville to Hartville to Salem line. Given mid 40s to
low 50s dewpoints, roughly 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, and 70-80 knot
bulk shear vectors, a few of these storms may become strong to
marginally severe. Little to none of this instability will be
surface based, so the storm hazards would be hail up to the size
of quarters and frequent lightning in elevated storms. No flooding
is expected due to forecast rainfall amounts remaining under 0.50
inches.
Farther northwest, light precipitation on the backside of the
surface low will be ongoing Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
which may turn into a light rain/snow mix across areas mainly
along and north of the Highway 54 corridor due to a much colder
airmass pushing into the region. This precipitation should come to
an end by midday Thursday. Given the preceding warm ground
temperatures from Wednesday, no impacts and little to no
accumulations are expected from this snow.
Much colder and drier for later Thursday and Friday:
Strong cold air advection will be in place for Thursday into
Thursday night behind the departing low pressure system, with a
sharp temperature gradient for highs across the area. Northwest
winds gusting up to 35 mph on Thursday will result in high
temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 30s across the western
half of our CWA to mid 40s to low 50s over the eastern Ozarks
where the cold air advection will be slightly more delayed.
The coldest portion of the airmass will be Thursday night/early
Friday morning with low temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s
and wind chills as cold as the upper single digits to low teens.
Friday will be cooler than average and sunny, with highs around
40-45 degrees.
Next Weekend-Next Week:
The weather pattern remains active for next weekend into next
week, with dry weather and a sharp warming trend this weekend
followed by another round of precipitation sometime during the
first half of next week. While global ensemble guidance is in good
agreement on a zonal flow pattern aloft for the first half of next
week, confidence is much lower with regards to the track of
surface lows and precipitation type/potential as a result of
variance among ensemble systems. The GFS ensemble has the wettest
signal for our region during this early week timeframe, while the
European and Canadian ensembles are substantially drier. Have
kept low end (15-30%) precipitation probabilities similar in line
with the NBM on Monday and Tuesday to account for this
uncertainty. Precipitation chances and confidence will very likely
change in future forecast updates for this early next week
system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
VFR flight conditions expected through the TAF period. An area of
overcast skies moves through the region this evening with
clearing expected behind it. Ceilings as low as 5000 to 8000 feet
with the early evening cloud cover. No additional precipitation
expected at the TAF sites.
Meanwhile, south/southwest winds will continue to gust through
the evening at 25 to 35 knots. The strong winds will dissipate
through the overnight hours. Some LLWS will also accompany a
strong a low-level jet this evening. Expect LLWS of 45 to 55
knots to dissipate around 06Z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rothstein
LONG TERM...Rothstein
AVIATION...Perez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
848 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Latest HRRR is starting to come around to the 18z NAM output in
suggesting that low level moisture will begin returning overnight,
much faster than the NBM suggested earlier. IR Imagery already
showing low ceilings returning to portions of NE LA and SC AR and
this will also be a favorable location for patchy dense fog to
form overnight as well. Already seeing this across portions of SC
AR and NE LA as well. For the update, added patchy fog to the
southeast half of the forecast region for the remainder of the
night and into the mid morning hours on Wednesday. Also removed
precip mention for the remainder of the night. Did not touch
overnight low temperatures as our northwest zones will obviously
fall off more than our southeast zones given the low level
moisture return will be confined to our southeast half.
Updated zone package already sent...13.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
The latest RAP mid-level analysis indicates that a closed low is
centered across central Kansas and is shifting northeastward
toward the Upper Midwest. Ahead of this feature, a broad swath of
mid-level moisture extends across the Tennessee Valley and the
Missouri Valley with the back edge of this moisture exiting the
ArkLaMiss. Much drier air in the mid to lower levels is now
reaching the ArkLaTex and pressing northeastward. Weak vort
energy related to this feature is crossing north-central
Louisiana. At the surface, a 987mb low is centered over Nebraska
with an occluded front southeast of this feature pushing into
Missouri and Arkansas. In Arkansas, the occlusion splits into a
cold front which is bisecting our area and a warm front extending
eastward into the Mississippi Valley. The cold front currently
extends from Union County southward to Ruston and further south to
Natchitoches. Ahead of the front temperatures are close to 70
with temperatures behind it ranging from the 50s in the ArkLaTex
and SE Oklahoma to the mid 60s in East Texas where sunshine has
allowed temperatures to recover in the wake of the relatively weak
front. Remnant scattered showers are east of a Hope-Shreveport-
Lufkin line with visible satellite imagery indicating that skies
are quickly clearing from the west.
This evening, the upper low will quickly pull northeastward
across into the Upper Midwest and the cold front will quickly
slide eastward of the ArkLaMiss. As the front exits the area, a
thin line of heavy rain can be expected along with a wind shift
with winds gusting to 20-30 mph. Given wind gusts along the line
will be brief and winds behind the line are not reaching criteria,
the Wind Advisory was cancelled for portions of Deep East Texas,
East Texas, and northwestern Louisiana. Otherwise, more broader
synoptic scale forcing from the upper low and its associated vort
max will lead to scattered showers through the afternoon before
rain comes to an end this evening. Skies will continue to clear
from the west, with rapid clearing in northern Louisiana and
southern Arkansas late this afternoon into the evening.
Tonight, the initial upper low will push into the Great Lakes while
a new, stronger closed low enters the Four Corners region. This
will allow the ArkLaTex to remain in a southwesterly flow ahead
of this feature, allowing a reinforcement of warmer air. The
lower and mid levels (1000-500mb layer) will become bone dry
overnight with clear skies to start and some high cirrus spilling
into the area by dawn. This will keep the forecast dry overnight.
Wednesday into Wednesday night, the weather gets active again in a
progressive pattern as the aforementioned closed low moves from
the Four Corners area to the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a surface
low will swing across the Texas panhandle on Wednesday and across
Oklahoma into the Missouri Valley on Wednesday night. The low will
swing another cold front with showers and thunderstorms across
the region on Wednesday night. As the front clears east of the
area, showers will begin come to an end behind the line during the
pre-dawn hours on Thursday. This front will be noticeably
stronger, bringing cooler air into the area in its wake later in
the week. Ahead of the front, an unstable air mass will be in
place on Wednesday afternoon with 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE.
Vertical shear in this environment will be strong (0-6km shear
50-60 kts).
Considering the shear and instability parameters, hi-res convective
allowing models (CAMs) are hinting that we could see showers start
to move into central Louisiana and Deep East Texas in the early
afternoon hours. As we get into the early evening hours, isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms will begin in central Louisiana and
Deep East Texas and then shifting northward to the I-20 corridor
after sunset. By late evening, southern Arkansas will also see the
severe threat. Overnight, a line of storms is expected with the
front itself, bringing a damaging wind threat. The primary threats
of concern right now are large hail and damaging winds, although
there are is also a threat of isolated tornadoes. One limiting
factor will be the loss of daytime heating, but a corridor of
sufficient instability (SBCAPE 1000 J/kg) appears to be enough for
severe thunderstorms to still be possible considering the strong
shear in place. With all of this under consideration, the Storm
Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, has the area highlighted in
a Slight Risk in its Day 2 Convective Outlook. Right now, flash
flooding does not appear to be a threat with this event with
limited coverage of rainfall and fairly fast-moving storms.
For temperatures, the forecast is pretty close to the National Blend
of Models (NBM). Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s in SE
OK/SW AR to the mid 50s in central Louisiana. Highs will be around
15 degrees above normal across the area on Wednesday. As cooler air
begins to filter in behind the front on Wednesday night, lows will
range from the upper 30s in McCurtain County, OK to the upper 50s in
central Louisiana and north-central Louisiana.
/04-Woodrum/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Seasonable and dry conditions will continue for the Four State
Region through the weekend before a quick warmup arrives with the
next chance of rain early next week. Lingering precipitation from
Wednesday`s disturbance will gradually clear out through the rest of
the day on Thursday as the frontal boundary proceeds eastward
towards the lower Mississippi River Valley. By Friday, post-frontal
surface ridging will maintain enough subsidence to keep conditions
dry through the rest of the weekend, while clearing skies will also
allow for ideal radiational cooling (with temperature minimums at or
below freezing in most areas and maximums in the 50s).
By early next week, southwesterly flow orientation aloft will
transition into a more zonal orientation ahead of a slow-moving
upper-level trough approaching the Baja California peninsula. This,
in combination with a surface ridge axis shifting towards the
southeast U.S., will help deliver warm air advection into the area.
As a result, temperature maximums will be boosted into the 60s and
70s and minimums into the 50s (well above average for this time of
the year). This atmospheric WAA setup will be favorable for the next
chance of rain to occur as next week begins. /16/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 448 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Tricky forecast when it comes to aviation concerns tonight
resulting in a very uncertain forecast. Showers are currently
exiting our far east and southeast airspace and expect that trend
to continue through the night. Low clouds in association with this
exiting precipitation are pushing east as well but will they be
back tonight is the million dollar question. Latest NBM guidance
suggests this IFR/MVFR cloud cover will flirt with the MLU/LFK
terminals overnight through much of the morning before slowly
returning northward mid to late morning on Wed with ceilings
scattering out. Latest 18z NAM output suggesting at least the
southeast 2/3rds of our region will see a significant return of
boundary layer moisture overnight such that IFR/MVFR ceilings
will stop their progression eastward, returning overnight. Will
play the role of the optimist with this 00z TAF package and
forecast VFR conditions across all but the MLU terminal through
sunrise on Wed but if IR Satellite trends prove otherwise this
evening, 06z TAF package would obviously contain more cloud
restrictions. Did not include any weather in this TAF package as
severe weather threat appears to be very marginal through this TAF
window, increasing beyond the 02/17/00z window.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 52 77 51 63 / 0 30 80 20
MLU 57 75 60 69 / 0 30 90 60
DEQ 43 74 41 53 / 0 10 90 10
TXK 50 76 47 58 / 0 20 80 10
ELD 51 75 53 63 / 0 20 90 30
TYR 50 77 43 53 / 0 30 60 10
GGG 51 77 47 58 / 0 30 70 10
LFK 51 76 51 61 / 0 30 60 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...13