Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/13/23

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
450 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 104 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 Unsettled weather continues this week as two systems drop down and impact the region. Most areas will see strong and gusty west winds Monday through mid week, with snow chances for higher terrain areas Monday and Wednesday. A stronger cold front will move through Wednesday, brining low chances for flurries along the RGV. A warming trend near the end of the work week and into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 104 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 Active weather is expected in the short term portion of the forecast. Currently, there are a few showers occurring over the Sacramento Mountains with no significant impacts. Isolated showers are possible over area mountains this evening and in areas along the Rio Grande Valley. Otherwise, conditions should be dry. Winds remain light and from the east and southeast this evening, except near the Sierra Lakes area where northwesterly winds are possible. Overnight/morning low temperatures will be slightly warmer with the introduction of moisture into the region ahead of the upper level system that will be affecting us on Monday. The upper low just off of SoCal as seen in water vapor imagery will be moving inland during the overnight hours, and arriving into New Mexico on Monday late morning/early afternoon. This complex system brings minor impacts to our area. The main hazard at the moment is very windy conditions. Winds will be from the south and southwest between 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph across much of the region. The strongest winds are expected in the afternoon along with the frontal passage. The gusty winds tomorrow afternoon also bring blowing dust to the lowlands. The RAP surface dust analysis shows concentrations of dust in areas near the International Border. This could reduce visibilities down to 5 miles. Winds are expected to subside in areas west of the Rio Grande in the evening, but gusty winds are expected to continue in the eastern slopes of the Franklin, Organ and San Andres through tomorrow night. There is potential for stronger winds in the Black Range and the Sacramento Mountains starting on Monday night. Therefore, decided to go for a High Wind Watch. This would start an extended period of strong and gusty winds for the mountains through Wednesday. The other hazards present with this system are lowland rain showers and mountain snow. The main area impacted will be the Gila Region/Black Range where mixed precip, and snow is possible as the upper low moves in. There is very marginal instability (MUCAPE up to 300 J/kg) combined with steep lapse (greater than 8C/km) rates that would lead to convective showers (sleet during the transition period and bursts of snow) as well as a few lightning strikes. Snow amounts will be around 1-3 inches with isolated higher amounts in the highest elevations of mountains. The Sacramento Mountains should see amounts less than 2 inches as the dynamics out east are not as impressive. There is not a lot of vertical motion, nor frontogenetic forcing along the higher elevations of the Sacs, which should support the lesser amounts of snow. The lowlands may see snow showers in elevations above 5000 feet, but accumulations will be below an inch, mostly likely a trace. This is mostly going to affect areas west of the Rio Grande and mountain passes. Areas below 5000 feet could see some flurries mixed in with rain showers through the day. Again accumulations in these areas are expected to be very light if any at all. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 104 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 As the upper level low exits the area to the northeast, another upper level trough begins to dig south from the northern Rockies and down the Great Basin. Gusty west winds will persist behind the first system near the surface early Tuesday morning. West winds will strengthen during the day areawide as mixing heights rise into 45-50kt winds at ~700mbs. Tuesday night the next upper level low begins to deepen and strength over AZ/UT as it makes its way towards the Four Corners for early Wednesday morning. A well defined surface cold front begins to impact the Gila Region Tuesday night, brining gusty winds with the frontal passage and medium to high chances for snow showers (snow levels are near the surface). Forecasted snow amounts for Tuesday night through noon Wednesday are around 1-3 inches for Silver City and other areas less than 6,500ft, and 3-6 inches for the Pinos Altos and Black Range (6-8 inches possible at the peaks). Lordsburg and the NM Bootheel will see light snow showers late Tuesday night as well, with lower accumulations. Areas along I-10 from Deming to Lordsburg could see 0.25 - 1 inch of snow, with 1-3 inches possible in the higher terrain of the NM Bootheel. There is a small chance for a more convective nature to this as well, maybe seeing a lightning strike or two with the boundary. The frontal passage should reach El Paso by late Wednesday morning as it moves to the southeast. There are medium chances for gusty winds across the lowlands as the front moves through Wednesday. West winds could be as strong as 30 mphs sustained with the potential of gusts reaching 50 mphs, especially along east slopes, as some models show 50-60kts at 700mbs stacked over the frontal boundary. Models are keeping the strength of the front intact as it reaches eastern NM, however the moisture available for precipitation will fade as it moves across the CWA. Forecasted snow amounts for the Sacramento Mountains during this second system are 1-3 inches below 7,500ft with 3-4 inches possible above (there is only a 30% chance of the highest peaks seeing 6 inches). High chances for less than an inch of snow accumulation for most of Sierra County below 7,000ft. There are better chances for strong west winds. The strongest winds being seen in the Sacramento Mnts peaking Wednesday morning as sustained winds could hover near 40-45 mph with gusts potentially reaching 60-70 mph. Wednesday as the front moves through the lowlands, there is around a 15% chance for El Paso and other cities along the RGV to see flurries. Most models support virga around the lowlands, however surface dewpoints could be slightly higher than modeled due virga earlier in the week. Very low to no chances for snow or flurries in southern Otero and Hudspeth counties, as there doesn`t look like enough moisture will make it that far east. Winds will be strong here tho gusting most of the day Wednesday. Wednesday night, winds will become northerly and lighter as colder air settles in. Thursday morning, there is confidence in wind chill values dropping near or below 0 in the higher terrain of the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains. Temperatures in the lowlands could dip to 10 - 15 degrees below normal for Thursday`s high and low temperature, however it is too far out to put exact numbers on the forecast. Although we can say with high confidence it will be colder than normal. Weak ridging will build in for Friday and next weekend, allowing temperatures to reach back up to normal for Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 441 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 VFR conditions continue through 12Z despite a few light sprinkles possible west of the Rio Grande valley. Mid to high level clouds will be passing through the area. No significant CIG or VIS reductions are expected. Winds will be generally from the east and southeast with speeds between 5 to 15 kts. Winds subside in the overnight hours except for the highest peaks as the next upper level system approaches the region. Winds become from the south and gusty towards the end of the period late tomorrow morning. Strong SW to W winds are expected tomorrow afternoon by 19-20Z with speeds 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. An AWW is possible for KELP for the mid afternoon and evening hours tomorrow. There could also be some MVFR due to lower VSBY after 21Z due to blowing dust. Also ISO to SCT SHRA/SHSN over areas west of the Rio Grande Valley. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 Unsettled weather will continue this week, with low fire weather concerns. Two systems will dig down towards NM and impact the region, one tomorrow and the other mid week (Wednesday). Chances for high terrain snow and lowland virga/sprinkles will be seen Monday and Wednesday and will help to saturate the air near the surface. Winds will be gusty and strong at times, with the strongest west winds being seen in the Gila Region Tuesday and Sacramento Mountains Wednesday morning. These stronger winds are due to a surface cold front moving through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday, which could bring gusty winds to the lowlands Wednesday as it passes. RH values will be 20-40% in the lowlands and higher in the terrain as the front passage, but drier air will move in quickly behind the front Thursday morning. At the same time the stronger winds will diminish and become northerly. Cooler and drier air will persist with light winds through the end of the work week, with a warming trend next weekend. Max Vent rates will be excellent Monday and Wednesday before the front passes, but will be poor Tuesday and Thursday through the end of the week as the colder air settles in. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 41 69 36 62 / 0 40 20 0 Sierra Blanca 38 67 31 58 / 0 30 20 0 Las Cruces 37 64 33 59 / 10 20 10 0 Alamogordo 36 67 28 56 / 0 40 20 0 Cloudcroft 31 45 17 31 / 10 60 60 10 Truth or Consequences 36 59 33 54 / 10 30 10 0 Silver City 35 50 28 46 / 10 50 40 10 Deming 32 59 29 57 / 10 30 20 0 Lordsburg 32 55 28 57 / 10 50 40 10 West El Paso Metro 43 67 35 60 / 0 40 10 0 Dell City 35 72 34 59 / 0 30 10 0 Fort Hancock 38 72 34 65 / 0 30 10 0 Loma Linda 40 65 31 55 / 0 40 20 0 Fabens 39 72 34 64 / 0 30 20 0 Santa Teresa 37 64 31 59 / 10 20 10 0 White Sands HQ 42 66 36 57 / 10 30 20 0 Jornada Range 35 62 31 56 / 10 30 10 0 Hatch 34 62 32 58 / 20 30 10 0 Columbus 35 60 32 59 / 10 20 20 0 Orogrande 38 68 33 59 / 0 40 20 0 Mayhill 33 57 24 44 / 10 50 20 0 Mescalero 33 57 21 43 / 10 60 70 10 Timberon 32 54 19 42 / 10 50 30 0 Winston 32 51 27 44 / 10 40 10 0 Hillsboro 33 57 29 52 / 10 30 10 0 Spaceport 34 60 28 56 / 20 40 10 0 Lake Roberts 31 49 23 43 / 20 70 40 20 Hurley 32 54 27 51 / 10 30 20 0 Cliff 26 57 23 53 / 10 60 40 10 Mule Creek 34 48 28 46 / 10 70 40 20 Faywood 36 54 29 51 / 10 40 30 0 Animas 30 54 27 57 / 0 40 30 0 Hachita 32 57 28 56 / 10 30 30 0 Antelope Wells 32 54 28 55 / 0 30 30 0 Cloverdale 33 46 29 49 / 0 50 40 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MST Monday for TXZ418-420>424. Wind Advisory from noon Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday for TXZ419. NM...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MST Monday for NMZ402-403- 405>411-417. High Wind Watch from late Monday night through Wednesday afternoon for NMZ402-408-414>416. Wind Advisory from noon Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday for NMZ412- 413. Wind Advisory from noon Monday to midnight MST Monday night for NMZ414>416. && $$ SHORT TERM...29-Crespo-Jones LONG TERM....31-Dhuyvetter AVIATION...14-Bird
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
357 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 305 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA with a southwesterly flow aloft being between an upper air low over the Carolinas and another low off the coast of southern CA. Current satellite imagery and surface observations display dry conditions across the region with mostly sunny skies. Models forecast that the western low will move onshore going into the evening hours with the CWA gaining a westerly flow aloft as a ridge moves over the northwestern CONUS. At the surface, the CWA expects dry conditions to continue with breezy north-northwesterly winds dying down going into the overnight hours as they back to the west by midnight. Tonight`s overnight lows expect to be in the lower to middle 20s. On Monday, forecast guidance projects the southwestern low moving eastward over the AZ/NM border by the evening hours, the upper air ridge moving over the Northern Plains, and the CWA gaining a southwesterly upper air flow by the evening that turns more southerly overnight. At the surface, precipitation chances look to return to the region beginning in the evening hours and continue overnight into Wednesday courtesy of a surface low. The P-type for this precipitation looks to be mostly light rain with some possible light snow mixing in for western portions of the CWA. Best chances for precipitation looks to be in the southeastern quadrant of the CWA. Models also show the CWA also seeing southerly winds gusting up to around 35 kts in some locations during the evening hours particularly for areas west of KS-25. Daytime highs for Monday expect to be in the middle 40s to lower 60s range followed by overnight lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 120 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 Tuesday the first of two upper level closed lows will move across the forecast area. The first one will move rather quickly. Ahead of it the environment will be warm enough for the precipitation to be rainfall. Following the closed low will be a cold front. Models have this system moving through the forecast area earlier than what was seen yesterday (though this could be because it is was further south). Not entirely sure that is accurate given this is a closed low, which usually move slower than what models forecast. (The latest model run of the GFS and NAM is slower than the prior one.) Am expecting the rainfall to end once the cold front moves through. Due to the trough moving through slightly further north than yesterday, the area of rainfall has shifted further west. Rainfall amounts have increased from the prior forecast due to the trough slowing down. Tuesday evening the first round of precipitation ends as the next round moves in from the west. This round will be all snow due to the cold front having moved through ahead of it. Models continue to vary with the track of the second closed low. The GFS has shifted the closed low north and south over the last eight model runs, with the latest run being back south. The GEFS members seem to be favoring the more southern track, which is evident with the higher probability of 0.10"+ of QPF being south of Highway 40. The ECMWF has shown some variability north to south, however the last two runs are trending slightly more south. The ECMWF ensemble members are slightly further south with the placement of the higher probability for the 0.10"+ area than the GEFS, and have been trending south with the last three model runs. On a side note the ECMWF lines up more with the southern members of the GEFS, while the operational GFS has shifted from agreeing with the northern GEFS members to now the southern ones GEFS members. With this in mind, agree with the southern track being favored. Looking at CIPS Analogs, 2 of the 15 similar past events favor heavy snow for the forecast area. The majority of the past similar events either have heavy snow outside the forecast area or no heavy snow at all. Snow amounts have gone down for the second straight model run for the forecast area. This is reasonable given the model trends of further south. Have also noticed the 10th percentile amounts have declined significantly. Given the above considerations of model trends and CIPS data, confidence is moderate for snow amounts. Wouldn`t be surprised if snow amounts go down more, especially for the north half of the forecast area. After discussion with WPC and neighbors, decided to issue a winter storm watch for the south half of the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised if the southern shift continues in the model data, however the strong winds forecast will cause blowing/drifting snow for the southern half of the forecast area. Regarding winds, there will be two rounds of strong winds, one on Tuesday and another on Wednesday. The first round of winds will occur over the northwest 1/3 to half of the forecast area, then spread southeast and decline through the afternoon. Am not expecting gusts approaching 60 MPH. However gusts around 50 MPH are very reasonable. These gusts will occur behind the cold front. Wednesday the second round of strong winds move through. These winds will not be as strong as Tuesday, and will mainly be over the southern half of the forecast area. Thursday through Sunday the weather pattern becomes more tranquil as the upper level ridge moves through. The zonal flow behind the ridge will allow for near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 357 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 Both terminals will see VFR conditions for the forecast period. Winds for KGLD, northwest 5-15kts through 04z Monday, then west 5-10kts. By 15z, southwest around 10-15kts becoming south by 18z around 15-25kts. Winds for KMCK, north-northwest around 10kts through 02z Monday, then light/variable. By 16z, southwest around 10kts becoming south by 19z around 15-25kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night for COZ091-092. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
509 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 327 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Key Messages: -Chance to likely POPS are in place along and east of highway 83 Tuesday for rain, potentially mixing with or changing to wet snow with passage of a cold front. The NAM and NAMnest models are now suggesting a narrow north-south stripe of 3 inches accumulation using the Kuchera method. -The latest snow forecast Wednesday, as suggested by WPC, is for 1 to 4 inches across southwest Nebraska along and south of I-80 and an inch or less north of the interstate. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 327 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 The cirrus overhead this afternoon should move out early this evening with clear skies overnight. The models show light west winds and warm dry air building east into wrn and ncntl Nebraska. PWAT should fall to less than 0.20 inches by morning setting the stage for modest radiational cooling. Temperatures aloft at h850mb warm a few degrees. The guidance blend is in place for lows in the teens and 20s. Generally clear skies are predicted Monday with warm air advection continuing. Sfc low pressure will move through srn Canada producing southwest winds. The short term model blend suggested highs in the 40s to lower 50s. A strong warm air advection develops Monday night with h850-800mb winds increasing to 30-50kts. Isolated showers are possible across swrn Nebraska by morning as suggested by the RAP, NAM and GFS models. The short term model blend was the basis for lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 327 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 An upper level low just off the coast of srn CA will move east and then northeast moving through cntl Nebraska during the day Tuesday. Chance to likely POPS are in place along and east of highway 83 for rain, potentially mixing with or changing to wet snow with passage of a cold front. The NAM, RAP and GFS have slowed the system and track the upper low farther west. If this verifies, moisture will wrap around the h700mb low, encounter the cold air and change to wet but measureable snow across ncntl Nebraska. The NAM and NAMnest models are now suggesting a narrow north-south stripe of 3 inches accumulation using the Kuchera method. Later forecasts will fine tune this feature; this is a new development in the models. The latest model data on the storm expected to affect the cntl Plains Wednesday is as follows: The best support for snow- the h700mb low, will track through the srn Rockies and emerge on the plains of sern Colo and wrn KS Wednesday. The storm will then move northeast into ern Neb/wrn IA Wednesday evening. The models show this system taking on a positive tilt as it emerges onto the plains and this will cause a strong push of cold dry air down the high plains. There are differences in the timing and arrival of the dry air- important because it will disrupt the seeder feeder process for snow growth. The wetter GFS and Icosahedral models are slower with the arrival of the dry air than the ECM and GEM models which produce less QPF. The models have shifted the sfc focus for the storm south into north TX and OK. The models show a band of heavy snow developing across wrn KS and sern Nebraska northwest of this focus Wednesday. When this occurs, the snow will diminish across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Thus, the snow across wrn and ncntl Nebraska develops prior to the formation of the heavy snow predicted by the models elsewhere. The latest forecast, as suggested by WPC, is for 1 to 4 inches across southwest Nebraska along and south of I-80 and an inch or less north of the interstate. This forecast is based on a blend of the ECM and GEFs ensembles and lofty SLRs of 16-18 to 1. Later forecasts may warrant a Winter Weather Advisory across parts of southwest and south central Nebraska. A check on wind speeds Wednesday indicates 500m AGL winds mostly around 20kts suggesting sfc winds of 20 to 30 mph, from the north. h850mb winds in the GFS and NAM are 25 to 30kts. The NBM temperatures Wednesday have dropped to teens to mid 20s and temperatures aloft fall to around -15C at h850mb and -20C at h700mb. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 VFR will continue for western and north central Nebraska terminals as high clouds stream by. West/northwest winds will quickly taper after sunset this evening, becoming light and variable, then transitioning to southwest and strengthening by midday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CDC SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Snively