Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/11/23

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
516 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 515 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are planned. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 109 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Main concern for the short term is gusty downsloping winds east of the Prairie Coteau tonight into the overnight hours and the possibility of patchy fog, west of the James River Valley. Otherwise, dry weather continues with a few passing clouds here and there before an increase in clouds Sunday. GEFS/ECMWF Ens agree on the ongoing omega block system with a positive tilted ridge moving into the area this evening and flattening, due to a shortwave in Canada, with a surface high to our southeast. This will provide continuing WAA through the weekend. 500mb winds will continue out of the north/northwest before becoming more zonal for Saturday, as much of the Northern Plains is on the crest of this flattened ridge. By Sunday morning, winds will continue to be zonal/southwest as a trough will move in from the west. Within this flow, 700mb indicates a very small shortwave pushing west to east by Saturday afternoon. Per Rap model, this coincides with a lee trough at the surface that will push west to east this evening through Saturday morning with more of ridging(from the high to our southeast) the rest of Saturday with another surface trough/low late Saturday into Sunday. Models indicate strong winds at 850mb (from the wave up in Canada) ramping up over the Coteau area with speeds around 30-35kts around 00Z out of the southwest then turning westerly and decreasing to 20- 30kts by 06Z Saturday. 950-900 winds are between 30-40kts between 00- 06Z Saturday out of the southwest as well. Bufkit soundings at Peever during this time indicate a strengthening inversion just above 950mb and winds veering with height. So with these ingredients coming together there is a possibility of weak downslope wind event with gusts 40-45mph with localized higher wind gusts possible. This could create the potential for drifting and blowing snow on the eastern side of the Coteau. The challenge remains on if we see these higher gusts due to the strong inversion that could keep these gusts above the inversion. This is something that will need to be monitored. West of the James River, winds will be nearly calm overnight. This along with the low level moisture (from the snow melt) seen on bufkit soundings in this area, there is the chance to see more patchy fog. I did not mentioned it in the grids so if fog pops up, it needs to be added in. Overnight lows will be warmer with the WAA in place with temps ranging in the teens to the mid 20s. With a little stronger WAA for Saturday, highs should be a few degrees warmer than today ranging in the 30s/40s with parts of south central SD could see temps in the lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 109 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Compared to 24 hours ago, things still look quiet Sunday/Monday while the northern branch of split flow maintains a northwest flow (brief building of an upper level ridge over the northern plains heading into Monday) trajectory over this region. Monday night through Wednesday, that upper flow transitions to southwesterly as cut-off energy gets kicked out of the southwest CONUS and lifts out across the central plains when in a deep longwave trof is carving out space over the western CONUS. And all the while, this pesky split flow in upper jet streams appears to be maintained. Can`t stress enough the amount of low confidence in all these upper flow pattern details right now. Tuesday/Tuesday night that cut-off low lifting northeastward could be spreading WAA-forced/deformation-zone precipitation as far north and west as the portion of this CWA along/east of the James River valley. This is becoming a noticeable trend in model solutions compared to 24 to 36 hours ago. Again, right now, ensemble probabilities for light measurable snow show up in the 40-70% range. But, once probabilities of 2 or 3 or more inches of snow are examined, the likelihood of higher snowfall accums drop off considerably. If, and it`s a big if, some semblance of phasing between the large, strong southern stream longwave trof and shorter wave-length northern stream upper troffing, that forms across the western third of the CONUS during the early to middle portion of next week, can be maintained, precipitation chances would be pretty much shut off by the middle of Wednesday, reverting the rest of the extended back to a dry forecast. Ensembles 10-m winds/gusts and ECMWF EFI (wind/gust) data suggests that it could be getting rather windy by next Wednesday morning; persisting into Thursday before diminishing. Ensemble S.A table data (850hpa) and ensemble mean 2m temps and deterministic low level thermal progs support a cool-down starting Tuesday night that lasts into Friday morning. Where temperatures on the front end of the period will be warming each day into the 30s and 40s (and 50s for some places), by Wednesday temperatures will be back down to only warming into the 20s and 30s (teens to low 30s on Thursday). && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 515 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM...Dorn AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
522 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 225 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Key Messages: - Quiet and warmer for the weekend - Two systems to move across the area mid to late next week. First one looks to be warm enough for just rain. Colder air available for the second and could produce some accumulating snow. Through Saturday... Relatively enjoyable stretch of weather on tap for tonight and Friday as a surface high scoots and sinks across Iowa. Mid level heights are building quickly, ~10dam at 500mb, according to the RAP (10.17Z). At low levels, a slight perturbation slides out of the Southern Plains this evening, advecting the nocturnal Low Level Jet (LLJ) with it. An increased low level theta e lobe, currently positioned over the Northern Rockies, advects in as well, tied to the aforementioned low level trough. Lack of mixing with the low level inversion will abate from tapping into the increased wind gusts of 40+ kts at 1000 ft off the surface. Irregardless, will be breezy though, primarily west of the Mississippi River nearing 25- 30mph at times, as this LLJ traverses through Saturday morning. Temperatures will be on the up and up to start the weekend as the previously aforementioned increased low level theta e positions itself over the forecast area. Current (10.19Z) surface observations from the Northern Rockies into western Northern Plains reaching the low 40s where the increased theta e resides. Similar to previous forecasts, have bumped off and above National Blend 4.1 given recent history of under forecasting temperatures and current upstream observations. Tuesday through Thursday... Confidence continues to increase that the middle of next week will be wet as a system moves across the middle part of the country. The overall model trends have not changed much with the closed low coming out of the southern Rockies, becoming an open wave as it slides across the region from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Still some minor timing differences, but good agreement that the surface low should track from eastern Nebraska to western Lake Superior, just west of the local area. The probabilities for measurable precipitation continue to increase and are now sitting in the 80 to 90 percent range for Tuesday afternoon and evening. With the surface tracking just to the west, this will allow the warm sector to be in place and the precipitation looks to be almost all rain as the probabilities for measurable snow are sitting under 20 percent. Following behind this system are a couple more waves, one coming in from the southwest and another from southern Canada in the northern stream. While the models do not show these two systems phasing into one, they do indicate that they will help to form a single long wave trough but remain separate waves with the southern system coming across Thursday followed by the northern system at the end of the week. Despite the two different upper level waves, a single surface low is depicted by the models with a track to the east that has the potential to place the deformation band of precipitation on the local area. Enough agreement in the models already that the probabilities for measurable precipitation are in the 70 to 80 percent range for late Wednesday night into Thursday. This system looks to have colder air to work with with the probabilities for surface temperatures to be below freezing are in the 60 to 80 percent range. There is a signal for accumulating snow with this system the probabilities for measurable snow sitting in the 30 to 40 percent range. Looking at higher amounts, the signal does not drop below 20 percent until reaching the a threshold of 4 inches. It will be interesting to see how these signals change once the uncertainty starts to decrease. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with winds becoming S/SW as high pressure passes to the southeast. A period of LLWS is expected overnight into Saturday morning as winds strengthen off the surface with limited mixing until later Saturday morning. However, at least some gustiness is likely overnight at KRST. Winds will begin to gradually subside later Saturday afternoon. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...04/JAR AVIATION...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
254 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 228 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2023 It`s a very quiet day across northeastern Colorado. We have failed to discover any clouds so far today, with satellite showing clear skies across the entirety of the state. RAP Mesoanalysis shows a ridge axis centered off to the west, towards the CO/UT border, and this is slowly shifting to the east. Temperatures this afternoon are well correlated to the existing snowpack. Most of the Denver metro/urban corridor sits in the 40s to 50s, with 30s across most of the plains. Middle and North Park have struggled to break free of the surface inversion and remain in the single digits to mid teens. Tonight should be quiet again with the ridge remaining overhead. Warmer air aloft does work into the area through the night, along with some very light downslope flow. Lows should be a bit warmer than last night/this morning, especially across the lower foothills and I-25. Middle and North Park should again drop near/below zero. Even warmer temperatures come Saturday, thanks to continued warming aloft and some weak westerly downslope flow. Across the snow-free parts of the urban corridor, highs in the 50s to perhaps low 60s look likely. Some high cloud cover streaming in from the west during the afternoon may limit how warm we get. Areas across the plains should also make it back above 40F, though a few spots along the I-76/Platte River valley may still struggle to warm significantly. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 228 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2023 Few changes to the forecast at this time as the models remain fairly consistent. A weak split trough will move across the Rockies on Sunday, bringing clouds and a little cooling. There may be some flurries over the ridges and the northern edge of the light snow shield further south clipping areas south and east of Limon Sunday evening, but if there is anything accumulations will be minimal. As the trough which will be the focus of the coming week`s weather drops across the Great Basin Monday, we`ll be under a shortwave ridge with drying and warming early. Some clouds should start to creep up from the southwest in the afternoon. For the midweek trough, there continues to be better than average consistency in the model forecasts with fairly tight clustering in the ensembles given the time range. WPC ensemble clusters for Wednesday produce either a closed low tracking along the southern Colorado border, or a slightly weaker low less than 100 miles further south, with similar timing. Individual members do have some more spread, but it`s mostly in timing and not latitude. All this adds to confidence that there will be a low that`s strong enough and close enough to produce snow across northern Colorado with potential for a period of heavy snow roughly early Wednesday. There are still some concerns though. First, just the principle that only a slight model drift over the intervening 5 days would put the heaviest snow in a different place. A 50 mile per day change in the track of the low could still put it over Albuquerque, or Phoenix, or Cheyenne on Wednesday. A more specific concern is that the model runs that are producing a fairly strong mid level low tracking across the Four Corners Wednesday still have a lot of cold air, and cold advection, all the way back as far as Los Angeles. There are also a couple of short waves in the model dropping down the back side of the trough. All of that means the environment is ripe for those shortwaves to develop more than currently forecast and slow and elongate the mean trough axis. This could result in a slower/further south track or just stretching it out so the forcing for lift over us is weaker. All that is just to say we need to be careful about latching on to an exact solution at this time range, even with the better than normal model agreement. Often that back side development doesn`t get into the models until it starts to occur. As far as a deterministic forecast goes, the NBM and broad ensemble consensus looks fine. This does give a significant snow to Denver, somewhere between 5-10 inches in 24 hours Tuesday night and Wednesday, with heavier snow south and west of the city and less further north and east. The EC ensemble members have Denver right on the edge of the good snow, while Greeley and Akron less than 3 inches in almost all the ensemble members. The GFS pushes this edge a bit further north and the operational run still has 6-8 inches of snow across most of northern Colorado. There are a significant fraction of GFS members that have much less like the EC ensemble. So the main uncertainty looks to be north of Denver, but dropping the track a little further south would result in less snow for Denver and surrounding areas as well. As far as impacts go, it will mainly be the snowfall, but there is some wind and stronger members may get close to blizzard conditions out on the plains. It`s not looking like a big blizzard or prolonged closure kind of storm at this point, as it moves along fairly quickly without real strong pressure gradients developing. There`s some divergence upstream towards the end of the week with the next trough/ridge pair. We`ll see drying and some warming, but it`s a question of how much and that will also depend on what the snow cover looks like. The NBM is a suitable compromise for now. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1035 AM MST Fri Feb 10 2023 VFR through the TAF period. Winds will shift more to the southeast/east this afternoon and evening before drainage flow returns again tonight. Light winds prevail again tomorrow with high clouds slowly drifting in. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hiris LONG TERM...Gimmestad AVIATION...Hiris
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
558 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 122 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 As of 18Z, RAP analysis depicted an amplified H5 pattern, with a western CONUS ridge and a positively tilted trough axis stretching from just east of the Big Bend northeastward through OK. Guidance suggests this will slow and close off just to our northeast overnight. At the surface, the trough is well to our east across LA and the gulf, but there`s a strengthening sfc high moving into W TX. The strong pressure gradient between these two surface features has led to strong N to NNW winds of 15-25 mph with frequent gusts of 25- 35 mph and a few as high as 40 mph. Drier air continues to filter in, and later this afternoon our western counties will see RH dip into the low to mid 20s. Thus, elevated fire weather conditions are a concern and a Rangeland Fire Danger statement is in effect. Temperatures top out mainly in the 50s today, with some lower 60s southwest and isolated northern areas struggling to get out of the upper 40s. Some scattered cloud cover remains in place, but not for long. As the sun sets and the surface high broadens over our region, skies will clear out and wind speeds will quickly diminish this evening and should be near or below 10mph before midnight for most locations. Temperatures will drop quickly, and will fall below freezing for most of our region early Saturday. Forecast lows are in the 26 to 34 degree range, with the locations most likely to remain above freezing being the US-77 corridor, along the Rio Grande, and the city centers of Austin and San Antonio, though these locations do still have a ~30-40% chance of briefly reaching the freezing mark for an hour or two. Despite winds remaining out of the north on Saturday (~5mph west, up to 10-15 mph east) ample sunshine should allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 50s north and east and low to mid 60s south and west. Very dry conditions remain in place for our western counties, but with light winds there, fire weather concerns should be limited. The upper ridge axis moves overhead through Saturday night, allowing winds to gradually shift to the south over our northwestern areas before sunrise Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s, with a chance for some areas in the Hill Country and Coastal Plains to see another brief freeze. The southwest flow building in aloft behind the ridge axis will bring elevated cloud cover to the region late, and if it comes in a bit earlier than anticipated there is a low chance it could help prevent any additional freezes for Sunday morning. But at this time I do not expect it to play a role. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 122 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 .Long Term... The long term period will be back and forth on the temperature roller coaster with highs ranging from the 50s and 60s to 70s and 80s, then right back again into the 50s and 60s by the end of next week. We can thank a rather progressive mid-level 500mb pattern for the active storm track. Whether or not Monday evening`s rain event will be beneficial is still up in the air, but confidence in a widespread event is decreasing with each successive model run. With regard to the forecast, Sunday will start out on the cool side as a sfc high slides eastward and temperatures start in the lower to middle 30s. A nice afternoon rebound is in the works as shortwave ridging in the mid-levels overspreads South-Central Texas Sunday afternoon. As winds turn more south-southeasterly, temperatures should respond with highs generally in the 60s with a few spots to the south nearing the 70 degree mark. Mid-level moisture and high clouds will be on the increase late Sunday as our next shot at rain approaches for the start of next week. On Monday, southwest flow aloft will result in mostly cloudy skies as surface flow pumps in moisture ahead of our next front which will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A sfc low will develop and strengthen over the Panhandle and lift north over the central CONUS, sending the aforementioned cold front through our neck of the woods. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible as the front moves through, but significant rainfall is not expected. Tuesday through the end of the week will start the temperature roller coaster, with highs warming well into the 70s on Tuesday and then into the 80s areawide on Wednesday afternoon. Tuesday will have to be watched for Elevated to Near-Critical Fire Weather conditions over the Southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, and portions of the western Hill Country. Westerly winds at the surface in the wake of the frontal passage on Tuesday will result in a downsloping effect, leading to more compressional warming and increased surface drying. RH values will drop to between 10-25% over the areas mentioned above, and with sfc winds of 15-25 mph, gusting to 30+, concerns for fire weather are there. Wednesday will see a similar setup, but more due to the fact that yet another quick moving trough will approach from the west, with NAEFS ESAT on board with 500mb/700mb zonal winds at the climatological maximum over the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau by Thursday morning. A very warm day is on tap for Wednesday, and have blended 50th percentile NBM to account for warmer signals with widespread highs in the 80s and a very spring-like day setting up for all of South-Central Texas. Yet another cold front is expected to swing through late Wednesday into early Thursday, resulting in very gusty northwesterly winds and perhaps a stray shower or storm late Wednesday into early Thursday over the Coastal Plains. Elevated to Near-Critical Fire Weather conditions are once again expected Thursday behind the front with RH values between 10-25% west of Highway 281 and NW winds of 15- 25 mph, gusting to 30-35 mph at times. Much cooler air will filter in as well with highs cooling into the 50s and 60s for the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 VFR conditions will continue through the period as dry air remains in place. Breezy northwesterly winds will die down overnight with speeds picking up again tomorrow. However, speeds will not be quite as high as today. Otherwise, no major impacts are expected through the valid TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 33 57 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 31 57 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 31 58 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 30 55 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 32 65 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 32 56 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 28 62 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 31 58 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 33 56 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 33 60 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 34 62 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...KCW Long-Term...MMM Aviation...29
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
801 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2023 .UPDATE... No update planned tonight. Temps fell rather quickly in some of the cold spots in the eastern highlands early this evening. But with the high clouds overspreading the area, temps are bouncing back up there. Elsewhere, forecast lows look reasonable given the cloud cover. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 144 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2023/ SHORT TERM (Tonight - Saturday)... Another quiet afternoon across eastern Idaho although we are seeing gradually increasing cloud cover as an upper-level ridge begins to give way to more a trough moving into the Pacific NW. This feature will not have too much of an impact on our weather other than helping to increase cloud cover overnight tonight and during the day Saturday. Not expecting a cloud filled day but partly to mostly cloudy conditions are expected for most. These clouds SHOULD help to keep overnight lows warmer than what we`ve seen the past few days. That being said, timing the cloud cover it looks to move in after midnight so wouldn`t be surprised to see temps bottom out, especially across the Upper Snake/Arco Desert, after sunrise tonight and then gradually rise throughout the night as cloud cover starts to increase. To account for this, nudged temps down from model guidance a few degrees but this will be something for the evening shift to monitor. Increasing clouds should limit any widespread fog concerns. Saturday highs look "milder" than what we`ve seen recently with much of the area likely to get above freezing with maybe some low 40s sneaking into the lower Snake and eastern Magic Valley. McKaughan LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... With a split upper low diving southward along the California/Baja coast and upper ridging in place over the PAC NW, things start off pretty quiet in the long- term. By Monday, an upper trough will move into the PAC NW as the ridge weakens and the cut-off upper low lifts into the Four Corners area. Initial signs of snow will be late Monday morning into the afternoon. The trough will continue to dive into the Great Basin and eventually cut off, replacing the previous Four Corners upper low by Tuesday night. The model blend overall produces light snow amounts across the forecast area, though some areas of the Albion Mountains could see 8 to 10 inches of accumulation over a 2-day period. Island Park and St. Anthony could see around 3 to 5 inches. At the surface, an associated cold front will pass through sometime Monday evening. Winds should increase as the front passes and stay strong through the night. Going into Tuesday, winds will likely shift more northerly, ushering in cooler air once again. We`ll see gradual drying throughout the day Wednesday as the low departs to the east with ridging working back into the area. Temperatures will remain well below normal for the week. Hinsberger AVIATION... Few mid and high clouds noted on satellite imagery as upper ridge shifts to the east. Upper low is expected to cut off along the northern CA coast this afternoon, and models drive that low further down the coast through tomorrow. With much of the precip remaining in proximity to the low, Idaho should remain dry. NBM and HRRR guidance is keeping VFR conditions at all terminals, though HREF is showing a 10 to 20 percent probability of LIFR at IDA and PIH tonight. Hinsberger AIR QUALITY... An Air Quality Advisory is in effect for Franklin County through Saturday afternoon due to degraded air quality. The AQI is expected to drop from good to the moderate category as low- level inversions persist with little mixing expected. Conditions could continue to deteriorate through the weekend, and will likely see updates tomorrow. Hinsberger && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
638 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 638 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 A broad upper level low, oriented NE-SW at the base of a larger scale trough, was spinning over OK/TX early this evening. A compact PV max, centered over extreme SE OK and NE TX, was producing sustained lift over SE OK and west-central AR. In fact, a decent band of precip developed this afternoon and continues into the evening in the deformation zone on its north and northwest side. The western end of this (much of SE OK) has been snow for the most part and has been heavy at times. Rain continues in the warmer lower elevations of the lower Ark River Valley. The afternoon and evening updates raised snow accumulation potential into the 1 to 2 inch range in the higher elevations and spread up to an inch accums west toward McAlester area. Still no reports of any impact to roadways with temps in most areas where it is snowing staying at or just above freezing. The Kiamichi RAWS site along the ridge top in southern LeFlore county is the only site that has dropped below freezing. Some road impacts are possible along Talimena Scenic Dr which tracks along the ridge top. The last couple runs of the HRRR have been more aggressive with accums, and will continue to monitor reports and road data for possible short-term headline issuance. As the parent upper trough continue to shift south, the precip shield should gradually shift south as well thru the evening, with the bulk of the activity tapering off after midnight. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 208 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Warming trend is expected through the weekend as upper ridge briefly builds over the southern Plains. Gusty southwest winds will develop Sunday afternoon across northeast Oklahoma with a limited fire weather threat given the mild conditions and a relatively dry air-mass in place. Models have remained in good agreement with lifting strong upper low out of the desert Southwest and into the central Plains on Tuesday. Large bands of moderate showers will likely spread over the area from the west Monday night into Tuesday morning with a few isolated thunderstorms possible south of I-40. Widespread 0.5-1.0 inches of rainfall appear likely before precip sweeps east Tuesday afternoon/evening Another strong upper low will be right on the heels of the previous storm system on Wednesday with another round of showers/thunderstorms possible. There obviously remains some uncertainty concerning exact timing, however models have trended slightly further north with surface low track which may bring at least southern portions of the CWA into at least a limited severe threat as low level moisture surges north. Regardless, active weather pattern expected through the early to middle part of next next week. If upper low tracks a little further south, precip could briefly transition to a rain/snow mix across northeast Oklahoma on backside of system Wednesday night before ending some time on Thursday. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 VFR conditions are occurring at the NE OK sites this evening with IFR to MVFR conditions at the other sites across the region. Conditions improve later tonight into Saturday as the responsible mid-level shortwave sags to the southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 24 51 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 31 54 29 61 / 40 0 0 0 MLC 27 52 29 61 / 40 0 0 0 BVO 19 50 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 26 52 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 26 49 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 27 50 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 23 50 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 F10 26 51 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 32 53 30 59 / 70 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...10