Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/03/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
921 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front later this evening will trigger snow showers and
squalls into the overnight hours. Blustery winds, and a much
colder air mass behind the front will result in persistent lake
effect snow and dangerously cold wind chills into Saturday.
Conditions then improve throughout the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
920 PM Update...
No major updates to the grids, as the timing of the incoming
Arctic cold front and accompanying snow band/squall is looking
pretty good. Will be focused on SPS and SQW products going
forward.
Band became a bit more cellular as it crossed Lake Ontario, but
may be intensifying as it is moving on-shore. Note 1/16SM visby
at Rochester, 1/4SM at Sodus, and winds gusting to 35 knots at
Fulton.
Snow squall parameter and instability looks healthy in the 00Z
NAM all the way to NE PA, and the 01Z HRRR has some of the band
reaching as far as Scranton/W-B which will need to be watched
closely.
230 PM Update...
The quiet conditions come to an end this evening as weak high
pressure moves out and an Arctic front drops south into the region.
This front will bring a band of snow showers, strong winds, and cold
temperatures. Winter will make a brief, yet harsh return to end the
work work.
There continues to be a threat for snow squalls late this evening
and into the overnight hours. Strong instability will be present
just onshore with modeled CAPE ranging from 60 to 100 J/kg just
north of our CWA. This strong instability will drop south with the
front across CNY. Moisture is present through the DGZ, and BUFKIT
soundings show favorable conditions for stronger winds to mix down
to the surface. The snow squall parameter is well above 1, with
values up to 5. As this front moves into the Twin Tiers, instability
will not be quite as strong but conditions will still be favorable
for squalls. Further south, this front will run into drier and more
stable conditions, so snow squalls appear less likely across the
Wyoming Valley and eastward into the Poconos and Catskills. There
could still be some gusty snow showers in those areas though. These
squalls will bring brief periods of heavier snow and combined with
the winds, visibilities will be greatly reduced. Snow will
accumulate on roadways as temperatures will be quick to fall.
Hazardous travel conditions should be expected late this evening and
into the overnight hours. The main timing of these squalls is now
between 10 pm tonight and 3 am early Friday morning. Light
accumulations are expected with this line of snow showers. While
some higher snow rates cannot be ruled out, snowfall rates are not
expected to exceed much more than 0.5" in/hr along this band.
Behind the front, northwest flow will advect much colder air into
the region. Temperatures at 850mb will drop 20 degrees in a 12-hour
period overnight, falling as low as -25 to -30 deg C. Surface
temperatures will go from upper 20s to low 30s this evening, down
into the negative single digits to positive single digits by Friday
morning`s commute. With the colder air mass in place and northwest
flow, conditions will be favorable for lake effect snow (LES) across
CNY and even into NEPA. Flow will extend into the Georgian Bay,
which will help enhance the available moisture content. A quick
additional inch or two will be possible in the heavier bands by
Friday morning.
As previously mentioned, the winds will be quite strong, even after
the front passes through. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will blow snow that
has already fallen, resulting in reduced visibilities and drifting
in open areas. In the LES banding, these strong winds will create
squall-like showers at times, especially in the heaviest bands.
These strong winds combined with the cold temperatures will also
result in wind chills well below zero Friday morning.
Conditions will not change much during the day Friday, and actually
continue to worsen as temperatures drop throughout the day. By the
evening hours, the entire region will be in the positive to negative
single digits, with the coldest temps across north-central NY. Wind
chills will be well below zero across most of the region.
Temperatures will continue to tank through the overnight hours. Lows
will range from just barely above zero in NEPA to -20 deg F in N.
Oneida. While winds will gradually become calmer through the
overnight hours, wind chills will be dangerously low. The worst
conditions of this period will occur Friday night and early Saturday
morning as wind chills will range from -15 to -40 deg F.
Lake effect snow will continue through the day Friday and into the
overnight hours. These showers will have the upstream support
through the daytime hours, but the flow north of Lake Ontario
becomes southwesterly overnight. This will limit the available
moisture and the snow showers come to an end late Friday night/
early Saturday morning. Total snow accumulations from tonight
through Friday night varies across the region. South of the Southern
Tier, totals will generally be less than an inch where the squall
potential begins to weaken and any lake effect snow will be limited.
Across CNY, totals will range from an inch to around four inches,
with the higher end amounts in portions of the Finger Lakes region.
The cold and windy conditions will have an impact on ice crystal
type, so totals will be more limited compared to typical lake snow
events.
While there were some updates to the conditions expected during this
period, these changes were relatively minor. As a result, there were
no changes to the current headlines.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM Update:
Bitter cold conditions will hang on early Saturday before climbing
back toward more normal February conditions in the afternoon. High
pressure directly overhead will suppress precipitation and allow
winds to slacken. Dangerous wind chills will abate and all headlines
will expire around noon on Saturday.
High pressure moves east of the region on Saturday night with
increasing southwest winds and rising temperatures through the
night. Winds could be gusty, putting a relative chill in the air,
but not expecting hazardous wind chills as temperatures climb into
the 20s.
Sunday will continue the warming trend as a weak system moves
through the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. Expecting temperatures
to reach the mid 30s to mid 40s from north to south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM Update:
The trof of low pressure will move through the area Sunday night,
accompanied by a few rain or snow showers, mainly along and north of
the NY Thruway corridor. A northwesterly wind shift across Lake
Ontario will bring a chance of lake effect snow showers on Monday
with a brief pause in the warming trend from Sunday.
Beyond Monday...the primary focus will be considerably warmer than
average temperatures through the week with daytime highs easily
reaching the 40s...and around 50 is not out of the question by
Thursday. Models are not in good agreement with timing systems
coming from the Pacific, nor in the phasing of northern and southern
jet streams...if at all. In general though, conditions look to favor
a chance of clouds and light precipitation over being completely dry
and sunny. No major systems, or washouts, are expected but we should
definitely be free of snowcover in much of our region.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions across the area with mostly clear skies. A strong
arctic front will push through from NW to SE late this evening,
generating snow squall like conditions along the leading edge
of the front. SYR and RME will be the first impacted between
02-04z. A burst of heavy snow is expected to drop SYR down to
VLIFR temporarily, with MVFR prevailing. RME should see IFR
conditions during the heavy snow. Winds will be very strong as
the front passes, gusting to mid 30kts. ITH is expected to see
similar conditions to SYR with prevailing MVFR conditions,
dropping to LIFR during the squall like conditions. Winds here
will also gust to 35kts. Lake effect snow showers are expected
to fill in behind the front and with gusty winds through the
period, blowing snow will limit visibility at SYR and ITH
through the day. RME may see a period of VFR during the morning
as lake effect showers are expected to be west of the terminal.
ELM and BGM are expected to see heavy snow move through between
04-06z with conditions dropping to IFR during this period. Lake
effect snow showers will periodically pass overhead through the
TAF period, allowing conditions to bounce in and out of MVFR
through the day. The best chance for prolonged MVFR will be at
BGM. Winds will be strong behind the front at both terminals,
gusting from 25-35kts through the day.
AVP should see the snow band move through between 06-08z,
dropping conditions down to IFR during the heaviest snow. Lake
effect showers are not expected to make it down to AVP so
conditions should remain VFR through the day. Winds are expected
to gust between 25-30kts through the TAF period.
Outlook...
Friday Night...Lake effect snow showers with gusty winds and
blowing snow, mainly impacting NY terminals.
Saturday...Mainly VFR expected under very cold high pressure.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR; low chance for snow showers and
restrictions for SYR and RME.
The snow will accumulate so rapidly that it will be extremely
difficult for the road crews to keep the roads clear.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR; low chance for rain showers and
restrictions for NY terminals.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Chill Warning from 7 AM Friday to noon EST Saturday for
PAZ039-040.
Wind Chill Advisory from 1 PM Friday to noon EST Saturday for
PAZ038-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Wind Chill Warning from 1 AM Friday to noon EST Saturday for
NYZ009.
Wind Chill Advisory from 7 AM Friday to noon EST Saturday for
NYZ015>017-022>025-055.
Wind Chill Warning from 7 AM Friday to noon EST Saturday for
NYZ018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTL/BJT
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPH
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JTC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
456 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1249 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023
As communities continue to recover from the widespread damage caused
by this weeks ice, we can finally look forward to dry and warming
weather. RAP analysis places the H5 trough axis near or just east of
the Big Bend as of 18Z, and model guidance has it east of our CWA by
06Z tonight. In the meantime, isolated light showers remain possible
over mainly northern portions of the area into this evening, but
with temperatures above freezing across the entirety of south-
central Texas there will be no additional icing issues. Highs today
top out in the upper 30s north of Austin, increasing as you head
southwest to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande where some sun may
peek out later. Skies will gradually clear out this evening and
tonight, and temperatures will dip below freezing again for a few
hours overnight for much of the Hill Country and areas near and east
of Austin into Bastrop and Lee counties. Thus, it`s possible some
wet pavement could refreeze in a few locations, but we don`t
anticipate widespread impacts to area roads as there should be
plenty of time for them to dry.
Winds out of the NNW today will turn to the NNE and then NE on
Friday, but with ample sunshine we expect temperatures to reach the
50s and lower 60s for most locations. A few spots in our
northeastern counties may only make it into the upper 40s though.
Flow continues to shift to the SE through tomorrow night, but
remains light over most of the region except the southern Edwards
Plateau. Another night of freezing temperatures still seems likely
for many areas, including the city of Austin. One wrench that may be
thrown into this is the potential for fog (and maybe even some
patchy freezing fog) for areas north of I-10. Confidence is too low
to include in the grids at this time but we will be keeping a close
eye on this.
We`ve received a lot of questions about historical analogues to this
event. Unfortunately there is not a robust database of ice
accretion data, and ASOS measurements of ice have existed for less
than a decade. However, some other ice events that had similar
impacts in the Austin area include Jan 15-17, 2007 and Feb 24-26,
2003. The primary difference is that each of those events featured
some minor snow and sleet accumulations in addition to freezing
rain, but widespread travel and power impacts similar to those
experienced this week did occur.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023
The slow and steady warmup continues into the weekend with
spectacular weather in store for all of South Central Texas. Return
flow out of the south should finally return on Saturday, setting the
stage for plentiful sunshine in the afternoon. Zonal flow at 500mb
will transition to weak west-northwesterly flow on Sunday, as a weak
disturbance swings through central Texas. Despite the presence of
this disturbance, surface dewpoints won`t have much time to recover
in the wake of our early week cold snap, and rain is not expected at
this time. Having a look at model forecast soundings from both the
NAM12 and the 12Z GFS shows rather dry air aloft as well, so little
to no moisture will come with this system to support anything other
than some mid to high level clouds. We may see some morning low
clouds Sunday, but surface winds should be more southwesterly,
limiting fog or low ceiling potential. If you are looking to finally
get some time outdoors after being couped up for a good chunk of this
past week, this weekend is your perfect excuse to do so. Sunday will
likely be our nicest day of the weekend, with temperatures warming
well into the 60s for most, with lower 70s mostly along and south of
Highway 90.
Turning our attention to next week, things turn interesting yet again
as our somewhat active pattern looks to continue entering the second
week of February. On Monday, temperatures look to warm considerably,
as GFS/ECM MOS guidance places mid to upper 70s across a good chunk
of South-Central Texas, with locations in the Winter Garden area
approaching the 80 degree mark. We are no strangers to weather
whiplash around here, and we have certainly experienced it over the
past week, with widespread 70s and lower 80s on Sunday, the 29th of
January, to a full blown ice storm Monday-Wednesday, followed by our
warming trend through this weekend and the start of this upcoming
week. Through Monday, global deterministic model guidance is in good
agreement on the evolution of the 500mb pattern, with a positively-
tilted trough over the Great Basin early Monday gathering steam as it
prepares to eject out over the central CONUS.
Models begin to diverge on Tuesday as the system ejects out over the
central CONUS. The GFS and Canadian eject the system more gradually,
with movement from the Four Corners to the Upper Midwest by Thursday
night, while the ECMWF is substantially faster, with the storm
rapidly moving through the central US and into the Great Lakes by
Thursday morning. What does this all mean for our rain chances? As of
right now, we have just gone with the latest NBM guidance on PoPs,
which introduces rain chances starting Tuesday 12Z and continuing
through Thursday morning, so favoring more of a GFS/Canadian slower
solution at this time. It`ll be tricky timing out the next cold
frontal passage as the ECMWF is quicker with the front through the
entire CWA by Tuesday night, while the GFS/Canadian are a bit slower,
with the front through the whole region by Thursday morning as rain
chances start to exit the area. We do not anticipate any wintry
precipitation with this storm system at this time as arctic air is
lacking, however, we could see some beneficial rainfall, which would
further help in alleviating early Spring wildfire concerns and
ongoing long term drought impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023
The last spoke of energy coming through will generate some -RA near
and north of a AQO-AUS-GYB line over the next couple of hours. IFR to
MVFR ceilings prevail across the Hill Country and along and east of
I-35. Clearing is forecast to take place 02Z-08Z from west to east
with VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 32 51 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 31 51 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 32 54 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 29 50 28 57 / 10 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 35 62 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 30 49 26 57 / 10 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 31 60 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 31 53 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 33 51 29 59 / 10 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 33 56 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 34 58 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...KCW
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...76
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
648 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023
Adjusted the forecast for fog/stratus concerns tonight. Based on
latest guidance, am a little concerned that we may see a more
widespread fog/stratus event, so increased/expanded cloud cover
and coverage of the fog.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 221 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023
At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows
an upper air ridge over the western CONUS with a subtropical trough
over TX while the CWA has a northwesterly upper air flow.
Satellite imagery along with surface observations display sunny
skies over the CWA with dry conditions and plenty of snow cover
remaining from the previous month`s snowfall. Forecast models
depict the ridge moving eastward into the night turning the CWA`s
upper air flow to a northerly direction. At the surface, a
backdoor cold front looks to make its way through the remainder of
the CWA by the evening hours causing a north-northeasterly flow
at the surface that turns south-southwesterly around midnight.
While dry conditions are expected to persist, forecast models
depict low clouds moving into the eastern half of the CWA this
evening with patchy fog possible for areas along and east of KS-25
beginning around midnight. Localized dense fog might be possible
around the Oakley area for a short time, but will monitor this in
case a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed. Overnight lows tonight
expect to be in the upper single digits to the middle teens with
wind chills in the single digits.
On Friday, forecast guidance shows the upper air ridge continuing to
make its eastward progress with the axis passing over the CWA during
the late night hours. At the surface, the patchy fog that began on
Thursday night looks to continue into Friday morning be. A warm
front is expected to pass through the CWA in the morning bringing
warmer daytime temperatures compared to the previous day along with
a westerly to southwesterly surface flow. High temperatures were
nudged towards the CONSMOS a bit in collaboration with neighboring
WFOs to better display the warmup. Precipitation is not expected on
Friday throughout the entire day. Daytime highs for Friday expect to
be in the lower to upper 40s with overnight lows in upper teens to
middle 20s.
For Saturday, model guidance has the ridge off to the east in the
morning with a weak trough moving across the CWA during the day with
a trailing ridge over the western CONUS. The trough`s axis appears
to pass over the CWA during the late afternoon hours. At the
surface, models show a tight pressure gradient across the CWA
allowing for afternoon sustained northwesterly winds of 15-25 kts
with gusts up to around 25-35 kts. While precipitation chances are
not expected for another day, fire weather does not look to be a
concern with these winds as minimum RH values are well over
criteria. The winds look to decrease by the evening hours with
clear skies being seen over the CWA during the night. Saturday`s
daytime high temperatures range between the lower 40s and the
lower 50s followed by overnight lows in the upper teens to middle
20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023
Will start the period with shortwave ridging and dry conditions
for Sunday. A weak trough moves through on Monday with low chances
for light rain and snow mainly in northeast Colorado Monday night.
A bit more clarification for the mid week system as today`s run of
the ECMWF looks more like the GFS, although differences persist.
The general idea is that a cut off low ejects from the Four
Corners area into the central plains Tuesday through Thursday.
ECMWF is faster with impacts from light snow beginning Tuesday
night and continuing into Wednesday. Whereas the GFS timing shows
impacts beginning Wednesday afternoon and continuing into
Thursday. Track of both models would bring best chances for snow
to eastern areas. Snow amounts currently in the advisory level
range, though in this pattern would not rule out more snow just
yet. The associated surface low will track well east of the area,
suggesting wind will not be an issue.
As for temperatures this period, very little variation is
anticipated, with the melting snowpack the primary driver. Highs
will be in the 30s/40s where snow persists, perhaps into the
lower 50s elsewhere. A slight cool down towards the end of the
period may also occur depending on the evolution of the
precipitation, however it does not appear to be significant.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 350 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023
KGLD expects to see VFR conditions throughout the 00Z TAF period
starting with light and variable winds that become south-
southwesterly around 05Z. By 13Z, KGLD winds become westerly
around 10 kts then turn west-southwesterly around 12 kts at 20Z.
By 22Z, KGLD sees southwesterly winds around 7 kts.
KMCK begins with VFR conditions with variable winds around 6 kts
before MVFR conditions come to the terminal at 03Z with a broken
cloud ceiling at 2500 ft. There is a chance that these clouds can
move in earlier, so a TEMPO group was added to reflect this. IFR
conditions begin for KMCK with ceilings lowering to around 700 ft
with a few hours of temporary LIFR ceilings. MVFR conditions
return at 13Z with clouds lifting to 2 kft before dissipating
at 14Z when VFR conditions are seen through the remainder of the
TAF period. Patchy fog chances begin after midnight and last into
the morning around KMCK, but models show not a great reduction in
visibility during this time. Will monitor conditions and amend
forecast as needed.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...076
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
911 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023
The arctic front has cleared the state and now stretches from near
CLE to IND. As h8 temps plummet to the minus teens C, lake effect
snow showers will continue to develop, but will be modulated by
low inversion heights. The HRRR is the most ambitious with heights
and forecasts then around 4k ft overnight...highest near the lake.
We should see an uptick in radar echos as we cross midnight.
Visibilities are less than 2sm -shsn over northern Lower and
we`ll likely see that along the lake shore counties overnight. As
such, no changes to the current headlines are planned.
Wind chills are already less than 5 above across the northern cwa
and below 0 at CAD. Temperatures, but ambient and apparent, will
get progressively colder overnight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023
-- Lake effect, low wind chills, then quiet until next week --
Arctic front sinking south through Lower Michigan through early
evening will bring some light snow and a few squalls followed by
a period of northwest flow lake effect snow showers lasting
through Friday. HRRR forecast soundings show more realistic
moisture profiles at LWA than the NAM and GFS with the lower
levels saturated through the DGZ and an inversion height above 5
kft. This would be expected with a long fetch of lake modified air
in NW flow. Expect a general 3 to 5 inches along the coastal
counties by Friday evening with locally over 6 inches in parts of
Ottawa, Allegan and Van Buren Counties as indicated by the HREF.
Arctic air and gusty winds will bring wind chills to near 15 below
tonight into Friday morning. Expect another cold night with less
wind Friday night then the sfc ridge moves east with moderating
temperatures Saturday afternoon. Warm advection snow stays north
of the forecast area Saturday night although some flurries are
possible across the far north.
Little if any precip on Sunday as moisture limited clipper moves
across northern Lower Michigan. Northern stream low moves through
Monday night and Tuesday but once again, moisture is limited and
any precip should be light. Better chance for rain or snow later
Wednesday into Thursday as southern stream low lifts north. Still
quite a bit of ensemble spread with this one and precip type is
low confidence.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 646 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023
Radar is beginning to look more like a lake effect echo pattern as
we are now behind the arctic front. MVFR cigs/vsbys expected at
MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL but VFR at LAN/JXN. Inversion heights will settle
in around 4k ft tonight which will limit snow potential. Muskegon
is likely to see the lowest visibilities as they are closer to
the lake. Snow showers will taper off by 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023
No changes to the headlines. Gales are possible Saturday afternoon
as surface pressure gradient tightens on the back side of the
arctic high pressure.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for MIZ038>040-044>046-
051-052-057>059-065>067-073-074.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ844>849.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon EST Friday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
553 PM MST Thu Feb 2 2023
.UPDATE...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the intermountain West through
the weekend, resulting in a warming trend and a return to above
normal temperatures. A weak storm system will then bring cooler
and breezy conditions to the area Monday. In the wake of this
system, near normal temperatures are generally anticipated next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery and streamline analysis reveal a
short-wave ridge across southern California, producing a dry
northwesterly flow across Arizona. This will result in abundant
sunshine today, though temperatures will still remain a few
degrees below normal.
The upper level ridge will shift eastward into the southern
Rockies early Friday. Meanwhile, in the lower levels, a strong
surface high will tighten the pressure gradient across portions of
southeastern Arizona Monday morning. Latest HREF indicates a few
gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in the higher terrain east of
Phoenix. Within the Valley, the HRRR suggests gusts could reach
20-25 mph early Friday afternoon as the atmosphere mixes out.
The remnants of a weak Pacific trough will move through Friday
night, but will do little to dampen the above normal heights,
which will persist through Sunday. Latest NBM indicates Saturday
will likely be the warmer of the two days, with high temperatures
likely reaching 76 degrees in Phoenix and this would tie for the
warmest day so far this calendar year. Although this is just 7
degrees above normal, full sunshine is anticipated and those
sensitive to the heat are urged to take precautions.
Models remain in good agreement another Pacific trough will swing
through the Four Corners region Monday, bringing cooler
conditions but negligible rain chances, even across the higher
terrain. Main impact will likely be the risk of windy conditions,
particularly where EFI values are elevated along the Colorado
River Valley and portions of southwestern Arizona.
Forecast uncertainty has decreased somewhat today, with both the
GEFS and ECMWF ensembles indicating another dry Pacific trough
reinforcing the near to slightly below normal temperatures. This
will again bring little opportunity for precipitation or hazardous
weather conditions through at least next Thursday. Thereafter,
forecast uncertainty increases markedly and model clusters remain
split on the overall pattern evolution.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 0053Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
Light W/NW winds will continue this evening and switch E before
midnight. Winds then remain E/SE through Friday. A strong low
level E/SE gradient wind will develop tonight with speeds up to
30-35 kts around 2-3 kft AGL. These winds are not expected to mix
to the surface overnight, but could lead to LLWS magnitudes near
of just below TAF thresholds (30 kts). This gradient wind will be
capable of producing some 15-25 kt gusts around midday Friday.
However, confidence in prevailing breezy conditions is low,
considering the strong surface inversion in the morning and
increased cloud coverage Friday. Clouds increase and lower through
Friday morning, with BKN to OVC down as low as 15-16 kft AGL
during the day. Embedded virga showers are likely most of Friday.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No significant weather concerns will exist through Friday
afternoon with merely an increase in mid/high cirrus decks, with
some embedded virga showers. Wind directions should vary between
westerly and northerly with speeds under 8kt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier and warmer weather will spread into the districts the rest of
the week with temperatures reaching slightly above normal levels.
Afternoon minimum humidity levels will range from 15% in western
districts to 25% over the higher terrain of eastern areas. Overnight
recovery will be fair to good in a 30-60% range. Winds are expected
to remain light and diurnal, with the exception of Friday, where
elevated east to southeast winds are expected during the morning and
afternoon hours. A weather disturbance early next week will bring
somewhat cooler temperatures and locally stronger winds, but little
other negative influence to fire weather concerns. Overall,
conditions will be favorable for prescribed burning through next
week.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...Benedict/Leffel
FIRE WEATHER...Young/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
814 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023
Cloudy skies with areas of light rain still prevail across
portions of the ArkLaTex this evening. Heaviest showers currently
across northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas. The edge of the
cloud shield is progressing southeast across Oklahoma with mostly
clear skies expected across portions of McCurtain county later
this evening. Hi Res models suggest that rainfall to gradually
dissipate through the evening with improving conditions all around
through the overnight hours. With a saturated low-level airmass
in place due to recent rainfall, could see areas of patchy fog or
possibly freezing fog across some locations near daybreak. Current
forecast is on track, no update needed at this time. /05/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 227 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023
Forecast worked out very well with highs around 40 where expected
and still lots mid to upper 30s at this time. Obs are showing
rain every where except ? at El Dorado and * in Ruston, however
unlikely with mid 30s. Our winds are northerly 5 to 10 mph with
just a few gusts add to the winter chill.
The upper low seen on water vapor over N TX rolling over the
frozen metroplex below, still with temps around the freezing mark
and likely dangerous travel conditions until tomorrow. The back
edge of clouds is now over Oklahoma City and will be clearing our
skies after midnight for our northwestern third or so, generally
along our I-30 corridor. As light rain ends there early this
evening some change over to snow is possible, but should not
accumulate with radiant ground heat. In addition, there is still
abundant standing water near roads and even puddle splashes over
time could develop black ice. Otherwise, additional precip will
not be an issue for more than an hour or two. The HRRR is showing
very spotty coverage ending quickly this mid evening with the
solid back edge of exiting rainfall still over our parishes late
this evening. The WPC amounts expected for that time frame are
only hundreths to a tenth and we will allow the Flood Watch to go
this mid afternoon with the last of the heavier elements that are
clearing out of there right now.
So we will issue the evening zones right after that watch message
goes expiring at 3pm. Fog will be patchy and generally light with
near saturation for this evening and then with clearing, frost is
possible or maybe some freezing fog for bridges and overpasses,
caution is quite reasonable from midnight to sun up. It depends
on the spreads, but as high pressure arriving with the lower dew
points will be pouring in to our area. The 1043mb core will keep
to the upper MS River valley, but it`s chill will be felt off
shore of the Gulf coast by daybreak. Highs on Friday with lots of
sunshine will top off in the mid 50s with NE winds all day. Warmer
SE winds will arrive for the weekend, but still a chilly and
frosty start expected Friday night. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023
It continues to look like the long-term will be dominated by mostly
quiet weather, as the region will be returning to SW flow to start
the weekend. Seasonal temperatures on Saturday will make way for
well above average temperatures on Sunday. Under that stiff
southwest flow, highs to start the new workweek will likely range in
the low-70s, with overnight lows only getting down into the mid-50s.
These above average temperatures should hang on for the remainder of
the long-term, even with a weak cold front moving through the region
on Thursday.
While these above average temperatures are notable, the bigger
weather story in the long-term will be the multiple systems that
could move through the region into next weekend. Rain chances across
the region should increase into Wednesday, and remain in the
forecast for the extended. The most notable of this rain should fall
Wednesday into Thursday, with some of it potentially being moderate
at times. While extended periods of moderate rain are not expected,
a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall is certainly possible. Given the
extended soaking we`ve seen in the short-term, soils should already
be rather wet. It won`t take too much rainfall to create additional
flooding and flash flooding concerns, so these systems in the long-
term will certainly bear worth watching. /44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2023
IFR ceilings and -RA conditions across the region to persist
through 03/06Z before rapid clearing occurs from the north. VFR
conditions to prevail areawide from 03/12Z through the end of the
forecast period at 04/00Z. Otherwise, northwest winds 5 to 10
knots this evening to become northeast after 03/12Z. /05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 34 53 30 56 / 50 0 0 0
MLU 34 49 25 54 / 60 0 0 0
DEQ 24 50 26 53 / 30 0 0 0
TXK 30 49 28 54 / 60 0 0 0
ELD 29 47 24 52 / 40 0 0 0
TYR 29 50 30 55 / 80 0 0 0
GGG 31 52 31 56 / 60 0 0 0
LFK 35 55 31 60 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...05