Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/21/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
843 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
Updated the forecast to issue another dense fog advisory, this
time for eastern SD, or along the higher terrain area of the
Sisseton Hills. Several webcams support quarter mile visibility
or less at times. The RUC boundary layer moisture indicates this
dense fog may last beyond 6Z, but will maintain a 6Z ending time
for now.
UPDATE Issued at 726 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
Updated the forecast this evening by issuing a dense fog advisory,
mainly for counties on the eastern side of the Missouri River
Valley. Several webcams along Highway 83, plus the KPIR
observation all support dense fog. Have also issued an SPS for
counties over the higher terrain area of the Sisseton Hills. A
few webcams support locally dense fog, as well as the potential
for freezing drizzle.
UPDATE Issued at 521 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
Updated aviation discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
Visibility seems to have generally improved to P6SM across a
majority of the area, except a few of the usual suspects in the
Glacial Lakes region. Stratus deck finally seems to be taking an
eastward movement as well, now generally along the Missouri River.
Tough to say how far east this progresses overnight as the latest
HRRR wants to stall the clearing at the river. Given this, decided
to stick with the fog/low clouds/freezing drizzle for eastern areas
during the overnight. Soundings are still somewhat supportive of
freezing drizzle in the Glacial Lakes region eastward at least
through 06Z tonight. Will also be watching a shortwave drop south
across the Dakotas late tonight into Saturday, with just slight
chances for light snow across the western CWA. As for temperatures,
once again leaned towards NBM90 for tonight`s lows in the areas with
highest potential for cloud cover.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
A fairly messy upper-level flow pattern involving split-flow will
continue into the middle of next week. This translates into near
normal temperatures, periods of light winds with low clouds and/or
overnight fog, occasional opportunities for light precipitation
(above average uncertainty on placement and timing), and periods of
breezy conditions with cold frontal passages. By the end of the week
into the weekend, the majority of ensemble members from the ECMWF,
GEFS and CMC have much colder air moving into the region. The
question is when exactly.
At the start of the period, 12z Sunday, the CWA will be between an
upper-trough to the east and an upper-ridge to the west. Light sfc
winds under sfc high pressure will provide the opportunity for fog,
which is backed up by low-level saturation in forecast soundings. By
Monday morning, a closed upper-low will have developed across the
Southwestern US. While additional fog may have built back in Sunday
evening, a cold frontal passage will bring breezy conditions
overnight Sunday into Monday leading to a clearing of the fog and/or
low clouds. Monday will also feature one of those aforementioned
light snow chances as this system moves through. The wind looks to
be most anomalously strong across central ND, per the ECMWF EFI.
Another cold front works through the region on Wednesday, but a more
significant Arctic front arrives late in the week or into the
weekend (uncertainty on timing). As mentioned in the previous
discussion, there has been and continues to be a large spread in the
25-75th percentiles for forecast high and low temperatures Thursday
through Sunday. Once the front passes, there will be the potential
for blustery winds and the start of an extended period of below
average temperatures with well below zero readings.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
IFR/MVFR cigs, and perhaps visibility, will continue impacting
KABR and KATY until the late morning or afternoon hours on
Saturday. Clearing has moved east of KPIR and KMBG with VFR
conditions possible for the rest of the valid TAF period.
However, will need to monitor the potential for dense fog later
tonight into the morning hours on Saturday at KPIR and KMBG.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ004-007-009-
011-016-019>023-034>037-051.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...SD
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 PM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Looking at the satellite imagery over the North Pacific and
Alaska, there are three lows that stand out. Two are in the
Bering Sea or south of the Bering and the other is in the Gulf of
Alaska. The Gulf of Alaska storm will impact Southcentral and,
indirectly, Southwest Alaska the next few days. This low has a
very long tap of warm and moist air associated with it as can be
seen on GOES 18 satellite. The warmest and wettest of this air is
heading toward Southeast through the lower clouds over the Gulf
are fairly warm as can be seen on IR. This is contrasted with the
cold air cumulus clouds streaming across the Alaska Peninsula
and into the southwest section of the Gulf low. The cold air is
entrenched over Southwest Alaska which is under high pressure.
This is creating a strong pressure gradient over parts of the
Bering and Southwest Alaska and how the Gulf low is impacting
Southwest Alaska.
The next two lows are farther west with one near Kiska Island and
the other well south of Adak near 40N. The jet stream is feeding
into the more southerly low and strengthen it as it moves
northward toward the Aleutians. The jet max is close to 190 KT at
250 mb so there is a bit of energy to feed this low located in
the favored left front exit region of the jet streak.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the synoptic features through
the weekend. Early next week they do start to diverge a bit in
regards to the complex low along the Aleutian and Alaska
Peninsula. This will have some trickle-down effects for mainland
Alaska by mid-week, though there is still usable information to
discern from them. For the shorter term, the high-resolution
models such as HRRR and NamNest continue to outperform the rest of
the bunch with the southeasterly waves across Southcentral
Alaska. The biggest concerns in Southcentral model disparity may
have more to do with freezing levels and how that will translate
to precipitation-type through the weekend along coastal mountains.
The GFS and NAM are doing well for Southwest Alaska and the
Bering Sea region.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Overall, VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There
is a slight chance for some light snow to cause brief MVFR
conditions late tonight or early Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A strong low southeast of Middleton Island this afternoon will
slowly weaken and drift onshore near Yakutat tomorrow afternoon.
The system`s front is currently over eastern Prince William
Sound and will swing west into Western Prince William Sound
around midnight tonight. Some overrunning moisture may be enough
to give the Anchorage Bowl a light dusting over snow overnight,
but overall moisture content is low. Additional light snow may
linger through the morning hours tomorrow over the Anchorage and
Eagle River Hillsides as flow aloft becomes westerly and upsloping
squeezes out any remaining moisture. The other side to this
system are gap/outflow winds that are ramping up rapidly through
Seward, Whittier, and Thompson Pass, which will remain ovulated
through Saturday afternoon. Skies should clear through the day
tomorrow from west to east, which will allow for some cooler
morning lows to develop on Sunday.
Sunday will begin a pattern change towards a warmer weather regime
as flow aloft shifts to be more southerly to southwesterly. This
will usher in a warmer, wetter airmass with the potential to bring
in some mixed precipitation or rain to non-coastal areas by
Monday as a series of progressively warmer storms move into the
area. Forecast confidence is generally low to moderate on timing
of precipitation and/or precipitation type as we get into the
Monday timeframe. The first of the series of systems will move
into the coast Sunday morning, increasing winds through Turnagain
arm and bringing a transition of snow to rain at sea level through
the evening. With ample cold air pushing into the coast ahead of
this system, snow levels shouldn`t rise too high on Sunday, but
will continue to creep up to around 1200 to 1500 ft by Monday,
which could create some difficult travel conditions as rain falls
on snow covered roadways along the Seward and Richardson highways.
Stay tuned for more details as the forecast evolves.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Monday)...
An upper-level trough with embedded shortwaves lifts to the
northeast while a strong upper ridge builds in its wake. As a
result, precipitation lingering along the Alaska Peninsula,
Western Alaska Range, and Kuskokwim Mountains will taper off
tonight. Clear skies and cooler temperatures will prevail across
much of Southwest under ridge, with the coldest temperatures
expected across the Kuskokwim Delta. Northerly winds combined with
cold temperatures could create very low wind chills (as low as 45
below zero) across the Kuskokwim Delta, and thus, a Wind Chill
Advisory is in effect from this evening through Saturday morning
for this region. For the rest of Saturday, northeasterly winds
will increase, cloud cover returns, and temperatures trend warmer
in response to a low nearing the Bering Sea. As the low lifts its
front northward, precipitation will return first to the Alaska
Peninsula Saturday night before spreading light and showery
precipitation inland to the Southwest Mainland through Monday.
Strong offshore flow will persist into Monday and may have the
potential to transport already existing snow within the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 3: Tonight
through Monday)...
An active weather pattern continues for the Bering Sea and
Aleutians through the short-term period. A compact low over the
Western and Central Aleutians will continue deepening as it tracks
across the Western Bering tonight. Widespread gales, with
localized storm force winds, and steady precipitation will
accompany the low as it exits towards Russia by Saturday morning.
Its occluded low will linger over the Western Bering as another
(stronger) system approaches from the North Pacific. This second
low will extend its front across the Aleutian Islands beginning
Saturday morning. Easterly winds will start to increase tonight
and then peak mid-afternoon through early evening tomorrow.
Sustained storm-force winds with gusts to hurricane-force are
anticipated across the Eastern Aleutians. Thus, a High Wind
Warning is in effect for the Eastern Aleutians from Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. Winds will diminish late Saturday
night into Sunday morning as the front weakens. Precipitation with
the front will likely start as snow before transitioning to all
rain by Saturday evening. The strong winds may combine with
initial snowfall to promote a period of low visibilities. As the
front lifts northward and weakens, winds slowly diminish and light
precipitation spreads across much of the Bering through Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...
Overall the struggle with a complex pattern evolution, even prior
to the extended timeframe, continues to throw a large wrench into
the gears from a predictability standpoint. The model consensus
for the behavior of an Arctic low situated over far northeastern
Russia and out towards the Bering Strait continues to shift, again
with big changes appearing even in the shorter term on Sunday and
Monday. By the start of the period on Tuesday, models have
partially shifted back to the scenario where the low becomes a
stretched out trough between the North Slope and Norton Sound as
it becomes sandwiched between a blocking high drifting into the
East Siberian Sea and a much stronger ridge extending into
northwest Canada and Southeast Alaska. With the exception of the
ECMWF, most solutions still keep the Arctic air mass to the north
of the Alaska Range, with much more mild conditions still likely
across most of Southwest and Southcentral between Tuesday and at
least Thursday as strong south to southwest flow persists around
the ridge extending over Canada and across much of the Gulf.
Most of the southern Mainland will remain in an active pattern
and right under fire from the prevailing storm track. Several
lows will likely to track into Southcentral through Thursday,
bringing multiple rounds of snow and rain into the region.
Meanwhile, a deep low stalling out near Kamchatka will push a
strong front northeastward across the Bering and Aleutians, likely
remaining gale force or stronger until it approaches the Southwest
coast by Thursday night. There are early indications for the
ridge to amplify and shift west by Friday, perhaps allowing for in
a break in the active pattern towards the end of the week.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 131
Wind Chill Advisory: 155
High Wind Warning: 185
MARINE...Storm Warning: 130 155 170-174 176 179
411 412 413 414
Gale Warning: 119 131 132 137 138 150 150 165
175 177 178 180 181 185 351 352
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 160 165 179 180 185 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AF
LONG TERM...AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
141 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday Night...
Satellite imagery shows a dry northerly flow over our region, a
cut off low well to our south over the 4-corners area, and an
upstream shortwave over AB/SK. Morning fog and low clouds in our
east have dissipated w/ the ongoing westerly winds.
Weak clipper combined with modestly steep mid level lapse rates
may bring a few light snow showers/flurries to areas east of
Billings late tonight into Saturday. The HRRR continues to show
another area of snow over our east tomorrow afternoon and evening,
but this seems very overdone considering we will be under building
heights and anticyclonic flow by then. Ridge will keep dry
conditions going for much of Saturday night, but by 12z Sunday we
should see a chance of snow showers over our western mountains as
next trof digs thru the PacNW to the northern Great Basin.
Main concern in the short term period is wind. Strongest winds
tonight will be outside of the gap areas, per the northerly flow,
with gusts on the order of 35-50 mph at Big Timber and Harlowton.
Lee side trof will continue to promote gusty winds along the
western foothills Saturday. By tomorrow night, mid level winds
will back to westerly in response to next Pacific trof...but lee
side winds would appear to be limited by 700mb flow of only 20
knots (EC) to maybe 30 knots (GFS). In addition, by 09z Sunday
there will be pressure falls over southeast ID, reducing the
gradient and shifting the isallobaric component of wind. So
overall, although it will be windy along the foothills, not sure
there is enough to produce highlight level (58+ mph) gusts over
the next 36-48 hours. Latest NBM probs show only a 10-15% chance
that gusts will reach 50 knots. Nonetheless this will need to be
watched.
Otherwise, Saturday will be the warmest of the next several days,
courtesy of pre-frontal conditions. We should see temps in the mid
30s to mid 40s most places...and perhaps upper 40s along some
western foothills.
JKL
Sunday through Friday...
The extended forecast will feature unsettled weather with
slightly above normal temperatures, although temps will be mainly
below normal W of KBIL. SREF showed troughing over the forecast
area Sunday through Sun. night. Clusters had the main energy in ID
or W MT and still showed uncertainty in the strength and position
of the system. The NAEFS had 30-40 kt 850 mb winds on Sunday,
supporting a windy day. Used combination of NBM and 25% of the
90th percentile NBM to get reasonable winds into the forecast.
Gusty winds continue into Sun. night. Best chances for snow
through Sun. night were focused W and S of KBIL. There was a 50%
chance of snow in KSHR Sun. morning, with 50-60% chances of snow
over Big Horn and Sheridan Counties Sun. night. Chances of snow
for KLVM were 30-40 percent into Sun. evening. In contrast, KBIL`s
highest chances were 30% Sun. evening. Chances for snow shift E
Sun. night. Snow amounts will be 1-2 inches over Big Horn County
Sun. night. Will need to keep an eye out in places like Judith
Gap, where blowing snow could become a concern.
On Monday, the main trough/upper low will be over the four-corners
region, as NNW flow moves over the forecast area. Monday looked
dry, but NW flow over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday will
return chances for snow to the area, especially for Wednesday,
where the highest chances (50-60%) will again be over Big Horn
and Sheridan Counties. Unsettled NW flow continues on Thursday
with a good surge of moisture for 30-60% chances of snow. Highest
chances will be over Sheridan County. NBM had a 30% chance of
greater than 2 in. of snow over KSHR for the 24 hours ending 00Z
Friday. Thursday looked like another windy day based on 850 mb
winds on the NAEFS. On Friday, cold Hudson Bay airmass starts to
retrograde into the region, resulting in lowering heights. Chances
for snow continue through Friday with colder air moving into NE
MT. This airmass will herald the beginning of a pattern change to
colder air over the region. Arthur
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail across the region through Saturday. There will
be an increase in mid and high clouds tonight, and some light snow
showers/flurries are possible east of KBIL late tonight &
Saturday. The Bighorn Mountains will be occasionally obscured.
Expect occasional wind gusts of 30-40 knots along the western
foothills. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/045 029/040 025/037 024/038 028/041 029/043 031/042
10/B 12/S 31/B 21/E 23/S 53/S 34/S
LVM 019/040 022/030 018/032 019/032 023/034 025/038 027/039
00/N 14/S 31/B 22/S 23/S 43/S 34/S
HDN 021/041 021/038 022/035 017/037 023/038 024/038 026/040
11/M 03/S 52/S 22/S 35/S 65/O 44/S
MLS 021/036 023/035 022/031 016/033 023/032 021/035 024/033
22/J 01/E 31/E 12/S 23/S 54/S 44/S
4BQ 022/037 023/036 023/030 013/034 022/033 021/036 025/036
22/J 01/E 31/N 01/E 13/S 54/S 33/S
BHK 015/033 019/035 019/028 012/031 018/030 014/033 018/032
22/J 00/E 21/N 01/E 12/S 33/S 33/S
SHR 017/038 019/033 017/028 011/032 020/032 020/036 024/038
11/M 05/S 52/S 13/S 46/S 76/S 44/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
526 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
...Aviation Update...
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
Key Messages:
* Patchy fog possible overnight, but confidence remains low.
* The winter weather advisory for Saturday was expanded to include
all our north central Kansas counties...although overall
snowfall totals did not change much.
* An active and seasonably cool weather pattern continues with
another chance for light snow possible Monday into
Tuesday...although confidence in much snow is low.
Clouds will begin to fill in across the local area this evening
ahead of the next upper level disturbance currently circulating
near the four corners region. This system is expected to emerge
into the central high plains around daybreak Saturday...bringing
a chance for snow to areas generally near and south of Interstate
80. Ahead of this system...some patchy fog will be possible
across the local area to start the day on Saturday...primarily
along the leading edge of the lower stratus as indicated by HRRR
and modest SREF probs...but as with last night...confidence is low
mainly due to the general westerly direction of the surface wind
as well as advancing high clouds ahead this next system. That
said...cannot completely rule out the possibility of fog and
maintained the patchy fog mention in the official forecast as well
as pockets of reduced visibilities in the HWO.
As this next system emerges into the plains...expect the potential
for light snow to spread across the region in an area of ascent...
as the upper level low approaches western Kansas. While some light
snow could begin before daybreak, by far, the bulk of snowfall
should come during the daytime hours Saturday as this system
passes by to the south. Models have come into a bit better
agreement with this system...with the HRRR/RAP keeping most of the
snow across our north central Kansas counties...and the
NAM/GFS/EC spreading precip further north...although just barely
into our south central Nebraska counties. As a result...while
overall snowfall totals did not change much, felt confident enough
with this system to limit the main impacts to north central
Kansas...where the advisory was expanded to include all of our 6
counties there. As this system exits the region Saturday
evening...snowfall should be coming to an end and kept the
expiration of the advisory at 6 PM...although some light
accumulating snow could linger mainly across portions of Mitchell
county into the early evening hours. Further north across south
central Nebraska...a dusting of snow remains possible as far north
as I-80...with some minor accumulations expected closer to the
Kansas/Nebraska state line.
Cooler air is then expected to filter in from the north on
Sunday...helping to keep highs mainly in the 20s across the local
area before the next storm system dives into the southwest on
Monday. Blended model solutions still bring snowfall chances late
Monday into Tuesday across the entire forecast area with this
system...but both the GFS and EC have trended south...and suggest
little to no precipitation at all across the local area...with the
main impact being cooler air being dragged across the local area
on Tuesday. Thereafter...quick moving northwesterly flow will
continue across the local area through the end of the extended
periods with multiple weak disturbance brushing the local
area...but little in the way of precip anticipated across the
local area as seasonably cool temperatures continue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
Lower confidence TAF forecast. Some models show patchy fog
developing tonight, but increasing mid to high clouds will
probably inhibit it from becoming widespread. Some light snow is
possible during the daytime on Saturday, but little to no
accumulation is expected. Ceilings are expected to dip to MVFR,
but exact timing of this is not as certain.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
749 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023
We`ve been seeing some reports in the southwest corner of Lwr MI
that light freezing rain/drizzle is mixing in with the lake effect
snow showers.
Several ASOS sites have had unknown precip remarks in the
observations and a few have recently carried light freezing rain
(SBN, BEH, BTL). This was a concern of the previous shift and
makes sense given the shallow moisture profiles shown in the
latest HRRR soundings and the DGZ being just barely in the top of
the cloud layer.
Sfc temperatures are rather marginal (right around freezing) and
road temps are likely a few degrees warmer, so probably not much
in the way of any travel impacts, but did update the forecast to
reflect the mix. Still expecting the precipitation to wind down
later this evening and especially after midnight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 345 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023
-- Lake effect snow to wind down this evening --
Light lake effect snow will gradually wind down through the
evening hours. Moderating temperatures at 925mb and 850mb should
end the necessary instability for lake effect snow showers as we
work through the evening. Moisture is already trending shallow and
we should see moisture depth fall below 5,000ft this evening.
There will be some occasional lift into the moist layer so not out
of the realm of possibilities to see some patchy drizzle or
freezing drizzle with temperatures near the freezing mark. At this
point given the lower chance and lower confidence we have left it
out of the forecast.
-- Light accumulating snow Saturday night into Sunday --
A trough moving through both at the surface and aloft with bring
the chance for light accumulating snow Saturday night into Sunday.
At this time both operational models and ensemble members seem to
be converging on a 1 to 2 inch snowfall. Given the lighter amounts
and the fact that it is falling on a weekend we are not expecting
significant impacts. Given the fact though that we have not had
widespread accumulating snow in awhile, we will be hitting the
change up in conditions in text products as well as social media
posts. Temperatures will be near or just below 32F so mitigation
factors used by road commissions will be very effective. It is not
a bad presentation in BUFKIT overviews at all, with deep moisture
up through 15,000 to 20,000 feet. Deep lift is noted (albeit on
the weaker side) through the depth of the column. The most
impressive feature with the system is it has a healthy looking
500mb trough that is forming/deepening overhead. The lower
tropospheric presentation is less impressive with a lack of a
significant low at the surface, no real defined 850mb low and weak
isentropic lift. A 1 to 2 inch 12 to 18 hour snow is what we are
looking at. Again impacts should be low given its the weekend,
marginal surface temperatures and it being a longer duration.
-- Bigger threat for accumulating snow mid next week --
The most impactful system in the 7 day forecast is clearly the
system for mid next week. A Southern Plains low is forecast to
move northeast towards the Great Lakes on Tuesday and move through
the area on Wednesday. In the operational models, the ECMWF, GFS
and Canadian there is spread in where the low is located Wednesday
evening. Essentially anywhere in the Southern Great Lakes region
is fair game at this point. The ECMWF ensemble mean low position
is near Lake Erie Wednesday evening with many of the individual
members over Lake Erie or the state of Ohio. This is a favorable
position for our southern CWA (I-96 corridor to the south) to see
accumulating snow. It does appear at this time to be cold enough
in the ECWMF and GFS for snow looking at both surface temperatures
and 850mb temperatures. So, we will be watching this time frame
closely to monitor trends in the models on location of the swath
of heavier snow. At this time the swath of snow could be on the
order of 6+ inches given a moisture tap of gulf origins. That
said, gulf moisture does not completely surge into the state.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 704 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023
MVFR cigs between 1500 and 2500 ft will continue to blanket the
region tonight and Saturday. Snow showers producing 3-6 mile vsbys
will impact the AZO terminal on and off through about 03-04Z this
evening, and there is also a small chance that some rain or
freezing rain will mix in with the snow at times. MKG and BTL
could also see a few brief periods of light snow and/or light
rain/freezing rain early this evening. Northwest winds of 5 to 10
kts this evening becoming southwest for late tonight and Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023
Still observing whitecaps and fairly large waves on webcams along
Lake Michigan. We have decided to push the Small Craft Advisory
through midnight to allow for the waves to dampen out a bit this
evening. For places from Grand Haven to the south it is going to
take the bulk if not all of the evening before waves fall below 4
feet.
Ridging should keep winds and waves in check much of the weekend.
Wind speeds for the most part are expected to be below 15 knots
through Sunday. The next ramp up in winds and waves will come
Monday afternoon into Monday night in an increasing southwesterly
flow. Winds to 30 knots look likely.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meade
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Duke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
941 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy skies will persist tonight in the moist flow behind low
pressure. High pressure will then briefly build into the Ohio
Valley for Saturday. The likelihood for precipitation returns
Sunday ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Evening update...
Flurries continue to occur north of the Ohio River this evening.
Recently, a couple reports of freezing drizzle have come out of
western Ohio. The 00Z ILN RAOB observed the saturated layer
around -11C, supported ice crystal growth. However, forecast
soundings from the HRRR reveal that the saturated layer may be
dropping below the DGZ, resulting in liquid droplet formation
instead of ice crystals. Will continue to monitor air and road
temperatures, as well as the persistence of the precipitation
intensity. As of now, precipitation is very light and is
expected to be brief. Additionally, road temperatures are still
above freezing by a few degrees.
Otherwise, no major changes to the near term forecast this
evening.
Previous discussion (313 PM)...
Flurries are ending as a westerly flow weakens. Clouds are
expected to linger in moisture trapped under a low level
inversion. As wind speeds decrease under 10 mph, overnight lows
in the mid and upper 20s are forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1027 mb high pressure moving from Kentucky to West Virginia will
provide dry weather on Saturday. Clouds are expected to gradually
decrease, especially in southern locations closer to the
subsidence around the high center. Highs ranging from the mid
30s north to the low 40s south will remain slightly above
normal.
A large area of low pressure will be traveling toward the area
from the southwest on Saturday night. A broad swath of moisture
advection and weak isentropic lift ahead of this low will begin
to impact the Ohio Valley. Snow will be possible after
midnight, with rain also possible in far southwestern sites.
Lows are forecast to range from the mid 20s east to around 30
west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Synoptically, a large troughing pattern progresses eastward out of
the Great Plains into the Ohio Valley region. At the surface, a
weak/ poorly organized low pressure system moves northeast out of
the OK panhandle region, moves through the Tennessee Valley area,
and off to the northeast. The northern edge of this system will
cause some impacts for our area near the end of the weekend.
12Z deterministic runs have trended a bit cooler and forecast
soundings indicate that the entire column will remain below freezing
north of the Ohio River with decent saturation through the DGZ, so
would expect to see primary precipitation type to be snow for these
areas. Along and south of the Ohio River, surface/ low level
temperatures may rise enough to see more of a mixed precipitation
scenario. Right now, probabilistic winter precipitation guidance has
40-50% probs of snow accumulating more than 1 inch for areas north
of I-70. Should note that the NBM puts freezing rain in the grids,
but there currently isn`t a strong signal for this in soundings, so
have yanked it. However, this will be something to watch based on
track of low/ as we get closer.
High pressure works its way in Monday and we dry out, with highs in
the upper 30s lows in the mid 20s. Our attention then turns to the
next system, an area of low pressure that will move through our
region before strengthening further off to our northeast. Given that
we are still multiple days out, ensemble guidance varies on exact
track/ placement of low center, which will have big influences on
precipitation/ precipitation type. However, general agreement that
the track of the system will move through the Ohio Valley on/around
Wednesday, precipitation is likely during this time period (type of
precip remains to be determined) and that a tight pressure gradient
will exist, given the strength of the system, resulting in gusty
winds.
Cold air advection on the back side of this low will bring cooler
temperatures for the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGs persist through much of the period as moist westerly
flow continues. Winds are still around or above 10 knots this
evening, but gradually weakening below 5 knots is forecast by
the end of the period. VFR conditions are expected to resume
between 16-20Z for all sites as drier air works in around high
pressure.
Wind direction backs to southwest and south on Saturday ahead
of the next low pressure system due to arrive on Sunday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions likely Sunday. MVFR ceilings
possible Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...McGinnis
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
718 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2023
The current forecast is on track. Low clouds will be stubborn to
mix out through the overnight, as moisture remains trapped under
a post-frontal inversion as was mentioned in the previous
discussion. Did hang onto the thicker clouds a bit longer, per
the latest RAP trends in the 925-850mb moisture layer. Also
freshened up the near term hourly temperatures, allowing for a
slightly slower drop off tonight; however, have left the forecast
lows intact for now and will reassess these a bit later this
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 458 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2023
The last of sprinkles/flurries associated with our recent storm
system are just about to depart to the east as high pressure
builds in from the west. However, clouds are still lingering in
most locations, with clearing present only near the TN border.
High pressure will arrive tonight and Saturday morning, and the
thin layer of clouds beneath a frontal inversion will eventually
erode to the northeast as the inversion lowers. Mainly clear skies
then take us into Saturday night.
With light winds and good radiating conditions initially on
Saturday night, temps will tail off in the evening, especially in
valleys. Warm air advection will help to hold readings higher on
ridges. The next storm system then begins to influence our
weather. A closed upper low currently near the Four Corners will
moves east and be picked up by another trough dropping southeast
from the northern plains and adjacent Canadian provinces. The
resulting highly amplified trough will support low pressure moving
along a frontal boundary in the Deep South. Moisture overrunning
the front, along with dynamic support from the upper trough, will
result in precip developing north and northeastward through the
area beginning late Saturday night. Models still aren`t in great
agreement on the timing, and a blend was used. The potential
problem at hand is that temperatures dropping off below freezing
in valleys may not recover above freezing before the precip
arrives. Warming aloft should favor largely liquid precip to fall,
which would bring a potential of light freezing rain for a short
time. It is included in the forecast and is continuing to be
mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. If confidence is high
enough, a special weather statement or advisory would be needed
in an upcoming shift.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2023
A very dynamic weather pattern is on tap in the extended portion
of the forecast, with a large trough expected to be pushing across
the eastern third of the CONUS on Sunday, a sharp ridge
establishing itself over the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains, and
another very large and well defined trough moving onshore in the
Pacific Northwest. These systems will steadily move eastward
across the country through out the upcoming work week, and will
bring alternating periods of wet and dry weather to eastern
Kentucky. The initial trough will make for a very wet Sunday and
Sunday across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to begin the period.
While we are expecting mainly rain for our area on Sunday, a few
locations in our far northern counties might experience an hour or
two of light freezing rain early Sunday morning. Rain is then
expected to mix with snow Sunday night into early Monday morning,
which could result in some very minor accumulations in our far
eastern counties, but nothing that would cause any issues. Once
this initial round of precip comes to an end early Monday
afternoon, a ridge of high pressure is then on track to bring dry
and warmer weather back to us from late Monday through early
Tuesday afternoon.
Another trough of low pressure is progged to move in from the
southwest from Tuesday afternoon through the end of the week. A
surface trough is expected to develop at the base of the upper
trough Tuesday morning, over the southern Plains. As the upper
trough pushes northeastward toward the Great Lakes, the surface
reflection will make its way through Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
and will bring another period of very wet weather to eastern
kentucky for a couple of days. The precip should remain all rain
Tuesday through Wednesday, before mixing with and then changing
over to snow Wednesday night and Thursday. Little if any snow
accumulation is expected with this bout of wintry precip, due
mainly to the expected warm ground around the area. Once this
round of rain and snow moves out of the area late Thursday, we
should see decreasing clouds and dry weather on tap Thursday night
and Friday, after the final trough system moves off to our
northeast.
Temperatures will vary from below normal to above normal around
the area. The warmest days should be Tuesday and Wednesday, when
we could see highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s around the area.
The coldest days will see highs only in the upper 30s to lower
40s. Sunday and Monday should see near normal max readings in the
low to mid 40s. Nightly lows will vary from the 20s on the coldest
nights, to the 30s on the warmer nights. Winds will be quite brisk
at times as well, with all the strong low pressure system moving
through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. During that time,
we could see sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph, with gusts
of 25 to 35 mph.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2023
MVFR ceilings will mainly be the rule at the terminals through at
least early Saturday morning, before clouds gradually erode and
scatter out from southwest to northeast through the rest of the
day. West to northwest winds of around 5 kts through this
evening, will become light and variable after midnight.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
821 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
Calm and quiet conditions ongoing across the Mid-South. Some high
clouds moving over north Mississippi and along the TN/MS border.
Temperatures expected to drop into the low to mid 30s tonight. No
major changes were made. The previous forecast remains on track.
SMW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
A series of progressive areas of low pressure will move across the
Lower Mississippi Valley late this weekend through the middle of
next week. This will bring mainly rain to the Mid-South on Sunday
and the potential for rain showers or thunderstorms Tuesday into
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near normal for late January
with highs in the 40s and 50s with lows averaging mostly in the
30s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends depict an upper level trough
over the Northeast United States and another upper level trough
over the Southwest U.S. and Colorado. Shortwave ridging is
present in between these two troughs over the Lower Mississippi
Valley this afternoon resulting in mostly sunny skies across the
area. As of 2 PM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the
middle 40s to lower 50s. The potential for wintry precipitation
next Tuesday into Wednesday in a highly progressive pattern is the
predominant challenge in this afternoon`s forecast issuance.
Surface and shortwave ridging will bring a continuation of rain
free weather to the Mid-South through Saturday morning. Clouds
will increase by Saturday as a warm front begins to move closer
towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. 305K surfaces indicate
isentropic ascent will gradually increase across the area
throughout the day and into Saturday night as an occluding
cold front enters the region into Sunday. At this time, it appears
the better chances for rain will occur once initial dry air
decreases and condensation pressure deficits shrink. Operational
model and probabilistic model guidance still indicates
instability will remain far removed from the area towards the Gulf
of Mexico and kept any mention of thunderstorms out of the
forecast for Sunday. Rain chances are expected to taper off into
Sunday night with a temporary reprieve coming in between
progressive occluding fronts.
Long term models continue to suggest an upper level low and
occluding front moving through the Middle and Lower Mississippi
Valleys next Tuesday into Wednesday. Some elevated instability may
be present on Tuesday to produce a potential for thunderstorms
over Northeast Mississippi but the overall strong to severe
thunderstorm threat is expected to remain well south and east of
the area. The operational ECMWF/GFS and its ensembles continues
to indicate a potential for wintry precipitation occurring more
along a deformation axis closer towards the I-44 corridor in
Missouri with lighter precipitation occurring across the Mid-
South. The best potential for any light wintry precipitation still
appears to be across portions of Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri
Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee if low level temperatures
become cooler than expected. Confidence in wintry precipitation is
low at the moment and have held off of mention in this forecast
issuance but will continue to monitor in subsequent model runs as
this event draws closer. Stay tuned...
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
VFR conds expected through Saturday evening at the TAF sites. The
HRRR does aggressively build the low cloud deck over KY into
northern areas of the Mid-South late tonight into Saturday
morning. The model does seem to be an outlier attm so will
monitor for now. Rain and lower cigs will develop Saturday night
as the next system pushes into the area. Light N/NE winds
overnight will veer to E/SE Saturday into Saturday evening and
remain light.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...SWC
AVIATION...SJM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
823 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 813 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023
Updated to let advisory for the San Luis Valley expire.
Starting to some hints of westward motion in snow bands on the
plains as low/mid level circulation wraps up over nern NM, while
most persistent area of heavy snow has stayed stubbornly in place
from around Trinidad northward into ern Pueblo County. CAMs and
new 00z NAM still suggest accumulating snow will at least briefly
push westward across El Paso/Pueblo counties overnight, so didn`t
make too many changes here. Farther west, Teller/Fremont counties
as well as the northern half of the Wet Mountains/Wet Mountain
Valley have seen little snow so far, and while we will likely see
some light snow redevelop overnight, have begun to cut back pops
and snow amounts here, and may need to go even further with cuts
in subsequent updates.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023
Key Message:
1) Snowfall commences this evening, heaviest snow along the
southern I-25 Corridor.
Currently...
Center of the low pressure system is moving eastward and just south
of the region. This system is a closed low with moisture wrapped
within its periphery.
Tonight into tomorrow..
GFS and HRRR models are showing that this low will have surface
winds coming in from the east to southeast with upper level winds at
the 700 Mb level moving orthogonal to the surface winds bringing
warm air advection from a more southerly component. This will cause
increasing lift around the warm air advection side of the storm.
This will bring moderate to heavy snow to the southern I-25 Corridor
and southeast plains tonight into tomorrow with some accumulations
up to a foot. Winter Storm Warnings still look on target for Kiowa,
Otero, Bent, Prowers, Huerfano and Las Animas Counties. Crowley
County has been added to the Winter Storm Warning, as updated model
ensembles have shown the possible snowfall accumulations increasing.
Currently, a couple of model ensemble members are hinting at
possible heavier amounts of snow in Pueblo County, which may prompt
an upgrade from a Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning.
Models are also showing that portions of southern El Paso County may
receive more snow than expected, possibly up to 6 inches in the
southeast corner of the county. This may make an issuance of a
Winter Weather Advisory necessary for Southern El Paso County. These
advisories and warnings are currently set to expire at 5 PM Saturday
afternoon, as the snow should lighten up and gradually move out to
the east. Snowfall will remain over the Sawatch and Eastern San Juan
Mountains. Uncertainty does exist on when the snow in the plains
will move out and the magnitude of total snow accumulations as the
Low Pressure system could change its direction of movement. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts for possible updates.
Low temperatures tonight into Saturday morning will be in the 20s
over the plains, and single digits over the mountains and mountain
valleys. High temperatures Saturday are expected to in the 30s over
the plains and in the teens and 20s over the mountains and mountain
valleys.
-Riser
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023
.Key Messages...
1) Another system will bring more widespread snowfall late Sunday
afternoon through early Tuesday morning.
2) Cool northwest flow pattern continues into the end of next week.
Saturday night-Sunday...Moderate northerly flow aloft across the
region Saturday night quickly transitions to west southwest through
the day Sunday, as the next system to affect the area digs across
the Intermountain West and Great Basin. With precipitation winding
down from west to east across the plains Saturday afternoon, will
see mainly dry conditions areawide through the day Sunday, save for
possible light snow/flurries developing across the higher terrain along
and west of the ContDvd later Sunday afternoon. Temperatures both
Saturday night and Sunday will be tricky and dependent on snow cover,
especially across the plains, as developing downslope flow will lead
to warming for the higher terrain along and west of I-25 Corridor,
with expected snowpack across the southeast plains leading to the
coolest temperatures.
Sunday night-Monday night...Latest model data, both operational and
ensemble runs, are trending towards a more southern solution with
the next system digging down across the eastern Great Basin into
southeastern Arizona early Monday morning, before continuing to dig
south and east across southern New Mexico through the day Monday and
into western Texas early Tuesday morning. This pattern would develop
deep and moist southerly flow into south central and southeast Colorado
Sunday night and through the day Monday, and combined with a surface
cold front pushing south and west across the eastern Plains, will
lead to widespread light, to at times moderate, snowfall across the
area through this timeframe. Snow looks to develop in earnest across
the ContDvd and mountain valleys Sunday evening, spreading east across
the eastern mtns and I-25 Corridor Sunday night, with snow continuing
through the day Monday, spreading south and east across the plains
Monday afternoon and evening. Snow accumulation at this time looks to
be generally light to moderate areawide, however, will likely continue
to change across southeastern Colorado, depending on how long and strong
mid level east to southeast upslope flow is before becoming more north to
northeast. If the southerly trend in model data continues, may see the
highest snowfall along and south of the Highway 50 Corridor, but either
way, will likely see travel impacts areawide on Monday with gusty
northerly winds leading to blowing and drifting snow. Snow looks to wane
from northwest to southeast Monday night, as north to northwest flow aloft
develops across the Rockies.
Tuesday-Friday...A cool northwest flow pattern, with occasional embedded
waves sets up across the region through the end of the work week. This
will keep chances of snow for areas over and near the higher terrain
and temperatures generally below seasonal levels areawide.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 245 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023
For KCOS..MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the rest
of this afternoon. Snow showers are moving off of the terrain and
are expected over station by around 22Z. Ceilings and visibilities
are expected to remain IFR for most of this evening, with possible
LIFR conditions over station later on tonight, mainly after 04Z.
Conditions are expected to improve early tomorrow morning, though
gusty northerly winds will likely stick around through most of
tomorrow morning.
For KPUB..Snow showers are expected to make their way over station
this hour, with MVFR conditions persisting until around 03Z.
Conditions could deteriorate to IFR more quickly than currently
forecast, depending on where heavier snow bands set up early in the
event. Expect IFR conditions through much of tonight and into
tomorrow morning, with LIFR conditions from 03 to 09Z tonight when
the heaviest snow is expected over station. Gusty northerly winds
are expected through the TAF period.
For KALS..Intermittent snow showers and IFR ceilings are expected
until 03Z this evening, with a gradual improvement after midnight.
VFR conditions are expected by 12Z early tomorrow morning.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ074-075-
087>089-093>099.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ079-080-
086.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...RISER
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
600 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
The latest RAP mid-level analysis indicates that the area is in a
southwesterly flow with moisture moving across Louisiana/Arkansas
and much drier air further upstream in Texas. Weak vort energy
across East Texas and central Louisiana is providing some forcing
along for showers with isentropic lift also aiding development.
Showers extend from Deep East Texas into central Louisiana, just
starting to move into our southern tier of counties and parishes.
At the surface, a 1027 mb high is located north of the area along
the Missouri/Kansas border with a broad pressure gradient across
the area. A surface low is currently located over the Four Corners
region with a frontal boundary extending southeast of it across
New Mexico and Texas. Meanwhile, another weak surface low is
located over the Bay of Campeche to the south of the area.
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows mostly clear skies north of
the I-20 corridor with increasing coverage to cloudy skies in
central LA/Deep East Texas.
Tonight, the area will remain in a southwesterly mid-level flow as
the mid-level disturbance shift eastward and isentropic uplift
progresses further northward into the area. The forecast is
closest to a mean of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) High
Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) with most hi-res model
solutions showing light to moderate showers progressing northward
into northern Louisiana overnight and then slowly sliding
southeastward by dawn on Saturday. It will be a cool night, with
lows closest to the NBM, ranging from the mid 30s in SW AR to the
mid 40s from Deep East Texas to the ArkLaMiss.
On Saturday, a weak inverted trough across the western Gulf of
Mexico will shift northward into the area, reinforcing chances for
showers across locations south of I-20 initially. Meanwhile, a
surface low will move from the Texas panhandle across Oklahoma
during the day, increasing rain chances from the west by the
afternoon hours. With this in mind showers are more likely in Deep
East Texas and central Louisiana tomorrow with chances decreasing
into NE Texas and SW Arkansas. For temperatures, highs are closest
to the NBM, ranging from the low to mid 50s across the area.
Saturday night, the surface low approaching from the west will merge
with the inverted trough as they move across Louisiana and Arkansas.
This will allow for showers early in the ArkLaMiss and central
Louisiana with rain mostly coming to an end by midnight. Some breaks
in the cloud are expected from the west as deeper moisture in the
1000-700mb layer shifts east of the area. Lows again are closest to
the NBM. Lows will be in the upper 30s in East Texas and SE OK where
more radiational cooling is possible with clouds clearing. Further
east, low will be in the mid 40s for central Louisiana and the
ArkLaMiss. /04-Woodrum/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
By Sunday morning, rainfall chances will have departed the ArkLaTex,
leaving dry conditions in their wake as the upper level trough
pushes north and east of the region over the Ozarks and into the
Mississippi Valley. Upper level ridging over the Great Plains will
provide a brief respite from active weather patterns, with skies
clearing by Monday as temperatures remain near or just below
seasonable, with lows in the 30s to 40s and highs in the 50s
throughout the long term forecast period.
The next weather-maker will take shape early next week in the
form of a pronounced trough plunging south over the Great Basin
and organizing around a large closed low over the Four Corners
region. This trough looks poised to dig as far south as the
U.S.-Mexico border before advancing eastward into west Texas by
Tuesday morning. Impacts on the Four State Region looks to begin
in the form of showers across our western zones overnight Monday
into Tuesday, continuing with high confidence areawide through the
day Tuesday before tapering off from west to east overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday. Recent guidance has suggested the
possibility of brief wintry mix across elevated areas in our
northernmost zones of southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas in
the early hours of Wednesday. However, this does not feature in
the latest NBM run, which resolves precip chances tapering off
before temperatures fall to near-freezing values. A slight shift
in timing or temperatures may noticeably change this solution,
however, so attention should be paid to updates over the coming
days.
After the closed low and associated troughing lift north and east
during the day Wednesday, quiet conditions will prevail for the
remainder of the week, while highs in the 50s continue and lows
remain largely in the 30s, with a few sub-freezing values across our
northern zones possible next Thursday morning. /26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023
VFR conditions will continue through the evening and overnight
hours, as extensive AC cigs between 7-11kft linger across much of
E TX/N LA/Srn AR through Saturday. Scattered areas of -RA will
continue through much of the evening across Lower E TX/N LA
along/S of the I-20 corridor, but should begin to diminish at
LFK/SHV by 03Z and MLU by 04Z, becoming more concentrated farther
S across Cntrl LA overnight. The areas of -RA will not result in
any vsby reductions across the region this evening, although
additional areas of -SHRA will develop by mid to late morning
Saturday across Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, before expanding NNE across
more of E TX into SW AR during the afternoon. Cigs will also begin
to lower to MVFR by mid to late morning across Deep E TX and
Cntrl LA especially as the areas of -SHRA begins to develop/expand
ENE, shifting N across much of E TX/N LA during the afternoon. In
fact, IFR cigs look to develop by mid-afternoon across Deep E
TX/NCntrl LA, and could affect the I-20 terminals by the end of
the 00Z TAF period. Given the lowering cigs and developing -SHRA,
could also see vsbys reductions across these areas as well, which
look to persist through the evening Saturday before the -SHRA
diminishes from W to E. ESE winds 3-7kts are expected tonight
through Saturday areawide. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 45 54 43 54 / 20 30 20 0
MLU 43 53 46 54 / 20 60 60 10
DEQ 37 52 38 50 / 0 20 20 10
TXK 41 54 42 52 / 0 20 20 0
ELD 38 53 41 51 / 10 30 30 0
TYR 45 54 39 55 / 10 30 10 0
GGG 44 53 41 54 / 10 30 10 0
LFK 45 55 41 57 / 30 50 20 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15