Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/21/23

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
843 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Updated the forecast to issue another dense fog advisory, this time for eastern SD, or along the higher terrain area of the Sisseton Hills. Several webcams support quarter mile visibility or less at times. The RUC boundary layer moisture indicates this dense fog may last beyond 6Z, but will maintain a 6Z ending time for now. UPDATE Issued at 726 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Updated the forecast this evening by issuing a dense fog advisory, mainly for counties on the eastern side of the Missouri River Valley. Several webcams along Highway 83, plus the KPIR observation all support dense fog. Have also issued an SPS for counties over the higher terrain area of the Sisseton Hills. A few webcams support locally dense fog, as well as the potential for freezing drizzle. UPDATE Issued at 521 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Updated aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 249 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Visibility seems to have generally improved to P6SM across a majority of the area, except a few of the usual suspects in the Glacial Lakes region. Stratus deck finally seems to be taking an eastward movement as well, now generally along the Missouri River. Tough to say how far east this progresses overnight as the latest HRRR wants to stall the clearing at the river. Given this, decided to stick with the fog/low clouds/freezing drizzle for eastern areas during the overnight. Soundings are still somewhat supportive of freezing drizzle in the Glacial Lakes region eastward at least through 06Z tonight. Will also be watching a shortwave drop south across the Dakotas late tonight into Saturday, with just slight chances for light snow across the western CWA. As for temperatures, once again leaned towards NBM90 for tonight`s lows in the areas with highest potential for cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 249 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 A fairly messy upper-level flow pattern involving split-flow will continue into the middle of next week. This translates into near normal temperatures, periods of light winds with low clouds and/or overnight fog, occasional opportunities for light precipitation (above average uncertainty on placement and timing), and periods of breezy conditions with cold frontal passages. By the end of the week into the weekend, the majority of ensemble members from the ECMWF, GEFS and CMC have much colder air moving into the region. The question is when exactly. At the start of the period, 12z Sunday, the CWA will be between an upper-trough to the east and an upper-ridge to the west. Light sfc winds under sfc high pressure will provide the opportunity for fog, which is backed up by low-level saturation in forecast soundings. By Monday morning, a closed upper-low will have developed across the Southwestern US. While additional fog may have built back in Sunday evening, a cold frontal passage will bring breezy conditions overnight Sunday into Monday leading to a clearing of the fog and/or low clouds. Monday will also feature one of those aforementioned light snow chances as this system moves through. The wind looks to be most anomalously strong across central ND, per the ECMWF EFI. Another cold front works through the region on Wednesday, but a more significant Arctic front arrives late in the week or into the weekend (uncertainty on timing). As mentioned in the previous discussion, there has been and continues to be a large spread in the 25-75th percentiles for forecast high and low temperatures Thursday through Sunday. Once the front passes, there will be the potential for blustery winds and the start of an extended period of below average temperatures with well below zero readings. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 521 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG IFR/MVFR cigs, and perhaps visibility, will continue impacting KABR and KATY until the late morning or afternoon hours on Saturday. Clearing has moved east of KPIR and KMBG with VFR conditions possible for the rest of the valid TAF period. However, will need to monitor the potential for dense fog later tonight into the morning hours on Saturday at KPIR and KMBG. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ004-007-009- 011-016-019>023-034>037-051. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SD SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...Lueck AVIATION...SD
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 PM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... Looking at the satellite imagery over the North Pacific and Alaska, there are three lows that stand out. Two are in the Bering Sea or south of the Bering and the other is in the Gulf of Alaska. The Gulf of Alaska storm will impact Southcentral and, indirectly, Southwest Alaska the next few days. This low has a very long tap of warm and moist air associated with it as can be seen on GOES 18 satellite. The warmest and wettest of this air is heading toward Southeast through the lower clouds over the Gulf are fairly warm as can be seen on IR. This is contrasted with the cold air cumulus clouds streaming across the Alaska Peninsula and into the southwest section of the Gulf low. The cold air is entrenched over Southwest Alaska which is under high pressure. This is creating a strong pressure gradient over parts of the Bering and Southwest Alaska and how the Gulf low is impacting Southwest Alaska. The next two lows are farther west with one near Kiska Island and the other well south of Adak near 40N. The jet stream is feeding into the more southerly low and strengthen it as it moves northward toward the Aleutians. The jet max is close to 190 KT at 250 mb so there is a bit of energy to feed this low located in the favored left front exit region of the jet streak. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the synoptic features through the weekend. Early next week they do start to diverge a bit in regards to the complex low along the Aleutian and Alaska Peninsula. This will have some trickle-down effects for mainland Alaska by mid-week, though there is still usable information to discern from them. For the shorter term, the high-resolution models such as HRRR and NamNest continue to outperform the rest of the bunch with the southeasterly waves across Southcentral Alaska. The biggest concerns in Southcentral model disparity may have more to do with freezing levels and how that will translate to precipitation-type through the weekend along coastal mountains. The GFS and NAM are doing well for Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea region. && .AVIATION... PANC...Overall, VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There is a slight chance for some light snow to cause brief MVFR conditions late tonight or early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A strong low southeast of Middleton Island this afternoon will slowly weaken and drift onshore near Yakutat tomorrow afternoon. The system`s front is currently over eastern Prince William Sound and will swing west into Western Prince William Sound around midnight tonight. Some overrunning moisture may be enough to give the Anchorage Bowl a light dusting over snow overnight, but overall moisture content is low. Additional light snow may linger through the morning hours tomorrow over the Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides as flow aloft becomes westerly and upsloping squeezes out any remaining moisture. The other side to this system are gap/outflow winds that are ramping up rapidly through Seward, Whittier, and Thompson Pass, which will remain ovulated through Saturday afternoon. Skies should clear through the day tomorrow from west to east, which will allow for some cooler morning lows to develop on Sunday. Sunday will begin a pattern change towards a warmer weather regime as flow aloft shifts to be more southerly to southwesterly. This will usher in a warmer, wetter airmass with the potential to bring in some mixed precipitation or rain to non-coastal areas by Monday as a series of progressively warmer storms move into the area. Forecast confidence is generally low to moderate on timing of precipitation and/or precipitation type as we get into the Monday timeframe. The first of the series of systems will move into the coast Sunday morning, increasing winds through Turnagain arm and bringing a transition of snow to rain at sea level through the evening. With ample cold air pushing into the coast ahead of this system, snow levels shouldn`t rise too high on Sunday, but will continue to creep up to around 1200 to 1500 ft by Monday, which could create some difficult travel conditions as rain falls on snow covered roadways along the Seward and Richardson highways. Stay tuned for more details as the forecast evolves. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday)... An upper-level trough with embedded shortwaves lifts to the northeast while a strong upper ridge builds in its wake. As a result, precipitation lingering along the Alaska Peninsula, Western Alaska Range, and Kuskokwim Mountains will taper off tonight. Clear skies and cooler temperatures will prevail across much of Southwest under ridge, with the coldest temperatures expected across the Kuskokwim Delta. Northerly winds combined with cold temperatures could create very low wind chills (as low as 45 below zero) across the Kuskokwim Delta, and thus, a Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from this evening through Saturday morning for this region. For the rest of Saturday, northeasterly winds will increase, cloud cover returns, and temperatures trend warmer in response to a low nearing the Bering Sea. As the low lifts its front northward, precipitation will return first to the Alaska Peninsula Saturday night before spreading light and showery precipitation inland to the Southwest Mainland through Monday. Strong offshore flow will persist into Monday and may have the potential to transport already existing snow within the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay areas. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 3: Tonight through Monday)... An active weather pattern continues for the Bering Sea and Aleutians through the short-term period. A compact low over the Western and Central Aleutians will continue deepening as it tracks across the Western Bering tonight. Widespread gales, with localized storm force winds, and steady precipitation will accompany the low as it exits towards Russia by Saturday morning. Its occluded low will linger over the Western Bering as another (stronger) system approaches from the North Pacific. This second low will extend its front across the Aleutian Islands beginning Saturday morning. Easterly winds will start to increase tonight and then peak mid-afternoon through early evening tomorrow. Sustained storm-force winds with gusts to hurricane-force are anticipated across the Eastern Aleutians. Thus, a High Wind Warning is in effect for the Eastern Aleutians from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Winds will diminish late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the front weakens. Precipitation with the front will likely start as snow before transitioning to all rain by Saturday evening. The strong winds may combine with initial snowfall to promote a period of low visibilities. As the front lifts northward and weakens, winds slowly diminish and light precipitation spreads across much of the Bering through Monday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)... Overall the struggle with a complex pattern evolution, even prior to the extended timeframe, continues to throw a large wrench into the gears from a predictability standpoint. The model consensus for the behavior of an Arctic low situated over far northeastern Russia and out towards the Bering Strait continues to shift, again with big changes appearing even in the shorter term on Sunday and Monday. By the start of the period on Tuesday, models have partially shifted back to the scenario where the low becomes a stretched out trough between the North Slope and Norton Sound as it becomes sandwiched between a blocking high drifting into the East Siberian Sea and a much stronger ridge extending into northwest Canada and Southeast Alaska. With the exception of the ECMWF, most solutions still keep the Arctic air mass to the north of the Alaska Range, with much more mild conditions still likely across most of Southwest and Southcentral between Tuesday and at least Thursday as strong south to southwest flow persists around the ridge extending over Canada and across much of the Gulf. Most of the southern Mainland will remain in an active pattern and right under fire from the prevailing storm track. Several lows will likely to track into Southcentral through Thursday, bringing multiple rounds of snow and rain into the region. Meanwhile, a deep low stalling out near Kamchatka will push a strong front northeastward across the Bering and Aleutians, likely remaining gale force or stronger until it approaches the Southwest coast by Thursday night. There are early indications for the ridge to amplify and shift west by Friday, perhaps allowing for in a break in the active pattern towards the end of the week. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 131 Wind Chill Advisory: 155 High Wind Warning: 185 MARINE...Storm Warning: 130 155 170-174 176 179 411 412 413 414 Gale Warning: 119 131 132 137 138 150 150 165 175 177 178 180 181 185 351 352 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 160 165 179 180 185 412 414 FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AF LONG TERM...AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
141 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023 .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday Night... Satellite imagery shows a dry northerly flow over our region, a cut off low well to our south over the 4-corners area, and an upstream shortwave over AB/SK. Morning fog and low clouds in our east have dissipated w/ the ongoing westerly winds. Weak clipper combined with modestly steep mid level lapse rates may bring a few light snow showers/flurries to areas east of Billings late tonight into Saturday. The HRRR continues to show another area of snow over our east tomorrow afternoon and evening, but this seems very overdone considering we will be under building heights and anticyclonic flow by then. Ridge will keep dry conditions going for much of Saturday night, but by 12z Sunday we should see a chance of snow showers over our western mountains as next trof digs thru the PacNW to the northern Great Basin. Main concern in the short term period is wind. Strongest winds tonight will be outside of the gap areas, per the northerly flow, with gusts on the order of 35-50 mph at Big Timber and Harlowton. Lee side trof will continue to promote gusty winds along the western foothills Saturday. By tomorrow night, mid level winds will back to westerly in response to next Pacific trof...but lee side winds would appear to be limited by 700mb flow of only 20 knots (EC) to maybe 30 knots (GFS). In addition, by 09z Sunday there will be pressure falls over southeast ID, reducing the gradient and shifting the isallobaric component of wind. So overall, although it will be windy along the foothills, not sure there is enough to produce highlight level (58+ mph) gusts over the next 36-48 hours. Latest NBM probs show only a 10-15% chance that gusts will reach 50 knots. Nonetheless this will need to be watched. Otherwise, Saturday will be the warmest of the next several days, courtesy of pre-frontal conditions. We should see temps in the mid 30s to mid 40s most places...and perhaps upper 40s along some western foothills. JKL Sunday through Friday... The extended forecast will feature unsettled weather with slightly above normal temperatures, although temps will be mainly below normal W of KBIL. SREF showed troughing over the forecast area Sunday through Sun. night. Clusters had the main energy in ID or W MT and still showed uncertainty in the strength and position of the system. The NAEFS had 30-40 kt 850 mb winds on Sunday, supporting a windy day. Used combination of NBM and 25% of the 90th percentile NBM to get reasonable winds into the forecast. Gusty winds continue into Sun. night. Best chances for snow through Sun. night were focused W and S of KBIL. There was a 50% chance of snow in KSHR Sun. morning, with 50-60% chances of snow over Big Horn and Sheridan Counties Sun. night. Chances of snow for KLVM were 30-40 percent into Sun. evening. In contrast, KBIL`s highest chances were 30% Sun. evening. Chances for snow shift E Sun. night. Snow amounts will be 1-2 inches over Big Horn County Sun. night. Will need to keep an eye out in places like Judith Gap, where blowing snow could become a concern. On Monday, the main trough/upper low will be over the four-corners region, as NNW flow moves over the forecast area. Monday looked dry, but NW flow over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday will return chances for snow to the area, especially for Wednesday, where the highest chances (50-60%) will again be over Big Horn and Sheridan Counties. Unsettled NW flow continues on Thursday with a good surge of moisture for 30-60% chances of snow. Highest chances will be over Sheridan County. NBM had a 30% chance of greater than 2 in. of snow over KSHR for the 24 hours ending 00Z Friday. Thursday looked like another windy day based on 850 mb winds on the NAEFS. On Friday, cold Hudson Bay airmass starts to retrograde into the region, resulting in lowering heights. Chances for snow continue through Friday with colder air moving into NE MT. This airmass will herald the beginning of a pattern change to colder air over the region. Arthur && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail across the region through Saturday. There will be an increase in mid and high clouds tonight, and some light snow showers/flurries are possible east of KBIL late tonight & Saturday. The Bighorn Mountains will be occasionally obscured. Expect occasional wind gusts of 30-40 knots along the western foothills. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 028/045 029/040 025/037 024/038 028/041 029/043 031/042 10/B 12/S 31/B 21/E 23/S 53/S 34/S LVM 019/040 022/030 018/032 019/032 023/034 025/038 027/039 00/N 14/S 31/B 22/S 23/S 43/S 34/S HDN 021/041 021/038 022/035 017/037 023/038 024/038 026/040 11/M 03/S 52/S 22/S 35/S 65/O 44/S MLS 021/036 023/035 022/031 016/033 023/032 021/035 024/033 22/J 01/E 31/E 12/S 23/S 54/S 44/S 4BQ 022/037 023/036 023/030 013/034 022/033 021/036 025/036 22/J 01/E 31/N 01/E 13/S 54/S 33/S BHK 015/033 019/035 019/028 012/031 018/030 014/033 018/032 22/J 00/E 21/N 01/E 12/S 33/S 33/S SHR 017/038 019/033 017/028 011/032 020/032 020/036 024/038 11/M 05/S 52/S 13/S 46/S 76/S 44/S && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$
National Weather Service Hastings NE
526 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 ...Aviation Update... .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Key Messages: * Patchy fog possible overnight, but confidence remains low. * The winter weather advisory for Saturday was expanded to include all our north central Kansas counties...although overall snowfall totals did not change much. * An active and seasonably cool weather pattern continues with another chance for light snow possible Monday into Tuesday...although confidence in much snow is low. Clouds will begin to fill in across the local area this evening ahead of the next upper level disturbance currently circulating near the four corners region. This system is expected to emerge into the central high plains around daybreak Saturday...bringing a chance for snow to areas generally near and south of Interstate 80. Ahead of this system...some patchy fog will be possible across the local area to start the day on Saturday...primarily along the leading edge of the lower stratus as indicated by HRRR and modest SREF probs...but as with last night...confidence is low mainly due to the general westerly direction of the surface wind as well as advancing high clouds ahead this next system. That said...cannot completely rule out the possibility of fog and maintained the patchy fog mention in the official forecast as well as pockets of reduced visibilities in the HWO. As this next system emerges into the plains...expect the potential for light snow to spread across the region in an area of ascent... as the upper level low approaches western Kansas. While some light snow could begin before daybreak, by far, the bulk of snowfall should come during the daytime hours Saturday as this system passes by to the south. Models have come into a bit better agreement with this system...with the HRRR/RAP keeping most of the snow across our north central Kansas counties...and the NAM/GFS/EC spreading precip further north...although just barely into our south central Nebraska counties. As a result...while overall snowfall totals did not change much, felt confident enough with this system to limit the main impacts to north central Kansas...where the advisory was expanded to include all of our 6 counties there. As this system exits the region Saturday evening...snowfall should be coming to an end and kept the expiration of the advisory at 6 PM...although some light accumulating snow could linger mainly across portions of Mitchell county into the early evening hours. Further north across south central Nebraska...a dusting of snow remains possible as far north as I-80...with some minor accumulations expected closer to the Kansas/Nebraska state line. Cooler air is then expected to filter in from the north on Sunday...helping to keep highs mainly in the 20s across the local area before the next storm system dives into the southwest on Monday. Blended model solutions still bring snowfall chances late Monday into Tuesday across the entire forecast area with this system...but both the GFS and EC have trended south...and suggest little to no precipitation at all across the local area...with the main impact being cooler air being dragged across the local area on Tuesday. Thereafter...quick moving northwesterly flow will continue across the local area through the end of the extended periods with multiple weak disturbance brushing the local area...but little in the way of precip anticipated across the local area as seasonably cool temperatures continue. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday) Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Lower confidence TAF forecast. Some models show patchy fog developing tonight, but increasing mid to high clouds will probably inhibit it from becoming widespread. Some light snow is possible during the daytime on Saturday, but little to no accumulation is expected. Ceilings are expected to dip to MVFR, but exact timing of this is not as certain. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
749 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 749 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 We`ve been seeing some reports in the southwest corner of Lwr MI that light freezing rain/drizzle is mixing in with the lake effect snow showers. Several ASOS sites have had unknown precip remarks in the observations and a few have recently carried light freezing rain (SBN, BEH, BTL). This was a concern of the previous shift and makes sense given the shallow moisture profiles shown in the latest HRRR soundings and the DGZ being just barely in the top of the cloud layer. Sfc temperatures are rather marginal (right around freezing) and road temps are likely a few degrees warmer, so probably not much in the way of any travel impacts, but did update the forecast to reflect the mix. Still expecting the precipitation to wind down later this evening and especially after midnight. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 345 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 -- Lake effect snow to wind down this evening -- Light lake effect snow will gradually wind down through the evening hours. Moderating temperatures at 925mb and 850mb should end the necessary instability for lake effect snow showers as we work through the evening. Moisture is already trending shallow and we should see moisture depth fall below 5,000ft this evening. There will be some occasional lift into the moist layer so not out of the realm of possibilities to see some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle with temperatures near the freezing mark. At this point given the lower chance and lower confidence we have left it out of the forecast. -- Light accumulating snow Saturday night into Sunday -- A trough moving through both at the surface and aloft with bring the chance for light accumulating snow Saturday night into Sunday. At this time both operational models and ensemble members seem to be converging on a 1 to 2 inch snowfall. Given the lighter amounts and the fact that it is falling on a weekend we are not expecting significant impacts. Given the fact though that we have not had widespread accumulating snow in awhile, we will be hitting the change up in conditions in text products as well as social media posts. Temperatures will be near or just below 32F so mitigation factors used by road commissions will be very effective. It is not a bad presentation in BUFKIT overviews at all, with deep moisture up through 15,000 to 20,000 feet. Deep lift is noted (albeit on the weaker side) through the depth of the column. The most impressive feature with the system is it has a healthy looking 500mb trough that is forming/deepening overhead. The lower tropospheric presentation is less impressive with a lack of a significant low at the surface, no real defined 850mb low and weak isentropic lift. A 1 to 2 inch 12 to 18 hour snow is what we are looking at. Again impacts should be low given its the weekend, marginal surface temperatures and it being a longer duration. -- Bigger threat for accumulating snow mid next week -- The most impactful system in the 7 day forecast is clearly the system for mid next week. A Southern Plains low is forecast to move northeast towards the Great Lakes on Tuesday and move through the area on Wednesday. In the operational models, the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian there is spread in where the low is located Wednesday evening. Essentially anywhere in the Southern Great Lakes region is fair game at this point. The ECMWF ensemble mean low position is near Lake Erie Wednesday evening with many of the individual members over Lake Erie or the state of Ohio. This is a favorable position for our southern CWA (I-96 corridor to the south) to see accumulating snow. It does appear at this time to be cold enough in the ECWMF and GFS for snow looking at both surface temperatures and 850mb temperatures. So, we will be watching this time frame closely to monitor trends in the models on location of the swath of heavier snow. At this time the swath of snow could be on the order of 6+ inches given a moisture tap of gulf origins. That said, gulf moisture does not completely surge into the state. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 704 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 MVFR cigs between 1500 and 2500 ft will continue to blanket the region tonight and Saturday. Snow showers producing 3-6 mile vsbys will impact the AZO terminal on and off through about 03-04Z this evening, and there is also a small chance that some rain or freezing rain will mix in with the snow at times. MKG and BTL could also see a few brief periods of light snow and/or light rain/freezing rain early this evening. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 kts this evening becoming southwest for late tonight and Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 Still observing whitecaps and fairly large waves on webcams along Lake Michigan. We have decided to push the Small Craft Advisory through midnight to allow for the waves to dampen out a bit this evening. For places from Grand Haven to the south it is going to take the bulk if not all of the evening before waves fall below 4 feet. Ridging should keep winds and waves in check much of the weekend. Wind speeds for the most part are expected to be below 15 knots through Sunday. The next ramp up in winds and waves will come Monday afternoon into Monday night in an increasing southwesterly flow. Winds to 30 knots look likely. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...Meade DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Meade MARINE...Duke
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
941 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy skies will persist tonight in the moist flow behind low pressure. High pressure will then briefly build into the Ohio Valley for Saturday. The likelihood for precipitation returns Sunday ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Evening update... Flurries continue to occur north of the Ohio River this evening. Recently, a couple reports of freezing drizzle have come out of western Ohio. The 00Z ILN RAOB observed the saturated layer around -11C, supported ice crystal growth. However, forecast soundings from the HRRR reveal that the saturated layer may be dropping below the DGZ, resulting in liquid droplet formation instead of ice crystals. Will continue to monitor air and road temperatures, as well as the persistence of the precipitation intensity. As of now, precipitation is very light and is expected to be brief. Additionally, road temperatures are still above freezing by a few degrees. Otherwise, no major changes to the near term forecast this evening. Previous discussion (313 PM)... Flurries are ending as a westerly flow weakens. Clouds are expected to linger in moisture trapped under a low level inversion. As wind speeds decrease under 10 mph, overnight lows in the mid and upper 20s are forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 1027 mb high pressure moving from Kentucky to West Virginia will provide dry weather on Saturday. Clouds are expected to gradually decrease, especially in southern locations closer to the subsidence around the high center. Highs ranging from the mid 30s north to the low 40s south will remain slightly above normal. A large area of low pressure will be traveling toward the area from the southwest on Saturday night. A broad swath of moisture advection and weak isentropic lift ahead of this low will begin to impact the Ohio Valley. Snow will be possible after midnight, with rain also possible in far southwestern sites. Lows are forecast to range from the mid 20s east to around 30 west. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Synoptically, a large troughing pattern progresses eastward out of the Great Plains into the Ohio Valley region. At the surface, a weak/ poorly organized low pressure system moves northeast out of the OK panhandle region, moves through the Tennessee Valley area, and off to the northeast. The northern edge of this system will cause some impacts for our area near the end of the weekend. 12Z deterministic runs have trended a bit cooler and forecast soundings indicate that the entire column will remain below freezing north of the Ohio River with decent saturation through the DGZ, so would expect to see primary precipitation type to be snow for these areas. Along and south of the Ohio River, surface/ low level temperatures may rise enough to see more of a mixed precipitation scenario. Right now, probabilistic winter precipitation guidance has 40-50% probs of snow accumulating more than 1 inch for areas north of I-70. Should note that the NBM puts freezing rain in the grids, but there currently isn`t a strong signal for this in soundings, so have yanked it. However, this will be something to watch based on track of low/ as we get closer. High pressure works its way in Monday and we dry out, with highs in the upper 30s lows in the mid 20s. Our attention then turns to the next system, an area of low pressure that will move through our region before strengthening further off to our northeast. Given that we are still multiple days out, ensemble guidance varies on exact track/ placement of low center, which will have big influences on precipitation/ precipitation type. However, general agreement that the track of the system will move through the Ohio Valley on/around Wednesday, precipitation is likely during this time period (type of precip remains to be determined) and that a tight pressure gradient will exist, given the strength of the system, resulting in gusty winds. Cold air advection on the back side of this low will bring cooler temperatures for the end of the work week. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR CIGs persist through much of the period as moist westerly flow continues. Winds are still around or above 10 knots this evening, but gradually weakening below 5 knots is forecast by the end of the period. VFR conditions are expected to resume between 16-20Z for all sites as drier air works in around high pressure. Wind direction backs to southwest and south on Saturday ahead of the next low pressure system due to arrive on Sunday. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions likely Sunday. MVFR ceilings possible Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio/McGinnis SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...McGinnis
National Weather Service Jackson KY
718 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 718 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2023 The current forecast is on track. Low clouds will be stubborn to mix out through the overnight, as moisture remains trapped under a post-frontal inversion as was mentioned in the previous discussion. Did hang onto the thicker clouds a bit longer, per the latest RAP trends in the 925-850mb moisture layer. Also freshened up the near term hourly temperatures, allowing for a slightly slower drop off tonight; however, have left the forecast lows intact for now and will reassess these a bit later this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 458 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2023 The last of sprinkles/flurries associated with our recent storm system are just about to depart to the east as high pressure builds in from the west. However, clouds are still lingering in most locations, with clearing present only near the TN border. High pressure will arrive tonight and Saturday morning, and the thin layer of clouds beneath a frontal inversion will eventually erode to the northeast as the inversion lowers. Mainly clear skies then take us into Saturday night. With light winds and good radiating conditions initially on Saturday night, temps will tail off in the evening, especially in valleys. Warm air advection will help to hold readings higher on ridges. The next storm system then begins to influence our weather. A closed upper low currently near the Four Corners will moves east and be picked up by another trough dropping southeast from the northern plains and adjacent Canadian provinces. The resulting highly amplified trough will support low pressure moving along a frontal boundary in the Deep South. Moisture overrunning the front, along with dynamic support from the upper trough, will result in precip developing north and northeastward through the area beginning late Saturday night. Models still aren`t in great agreement on the timing, and a blend was used. The potential problem at hand is that temperatures dropping off below freezing in valleys may not recover above freezing before the precip arrives. Warming aloft should favor largely liquid precip to fall, which would bring a potential of light freezing rain for a short time. It is included in the forecast and is continuing to be mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. If confidence is high enough, a special weather statement or advisory would be needed in an upcoming shift. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 332 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2023 A very dynamic weather pattern is on tap in the extended portion of the forecast, with a large trough expected to be pushing across the eastern third of the CONUS on Sunday, a sharp ridge establishing itself over the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains, and another very large and well defined trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest. These systems will steadily move eastward across the country through out the upcoming work week, and will bring alternating periods of wet and dry weather to eastern Kentucky. The initial trough will make for a very wet Sunday and Sunday across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to begin the period. While we are expecting mainly rain for our area on Sunday, a few locations in our far northern counties might experience an hour or two of light freezing rain early Sunday morning. Rain is then expected to mix with snow Sunday night into early Monday morning, which could result in some very minor accumulations in our far eastern counties, but nothing that would cause any issues. Once this initial round of precip comes to an end early Monday afternoon, a ridge of high pressure is then on track to bring dry and warmer weather back to us from late Monday through early Tuesday afternoon. Another trough of low pressure is progged to move in from the southwest from Tuesday afternoon through the end of the week. A surface trough is expected to develop at the base of the upper trough Tuesday morning, over the southern Plains. As the upper trough pushes northeastward toward the Great Lakes, the surface reflection will make its way through Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and will bring another period of very wet weather to eastern kentucky for a couple of days. The precip should remain all rain Tuesday through Wednesday, before mixing with and then changing over to snow Wednesday night and Thursday. Little if any snow accumulation is expected with this bout of wintry precip, due mainly to the expected warm ground around the area. Once this round of rain and snow moves out of the area late Thursday, we should see decreasing clouds and dry weather on tap Thursday night and Friday, after the final trough system moves off to our northeast. Temperatures will vary from below normal to above normal around the area. The warmest days should be Tuesday and Wednesday, when we could see highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s around the area. The coldest days will see highs only in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunday and Monday should see near normal max readings in the low to mid 40s. Nightly lows will vary from the 20s on the coldest nights, to the 30s on the warmer nights. Winds will be quite brisk at times as well, with all the strong low pressure system moving through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. During that time, we could see sustained southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 718 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2023 MVFR ceilings will mainly be the rule at the terminals through at least early Saturday morning, before clouds gradually erode and scatter out from southwest to northeast through the rest of the day. West to northwest winds of around 5 kts through this evening, will become light and variable after midnight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
821 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 700 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Calm and quiet conditions ongoing across the Mid-South. Some high clouds moving over north Mississippi and along the TN/MS border. Temperatures expected to drop into the low to mid 30s tonight. No major changes were made. The previous forecast remains on track. SMW && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 236 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 A series of progressive areas of low pressure will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley late this weekend through the middle of next week. This will bring mainly rain to the Mid-South on Sunday and the potential for rain showers or thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near normal for late January with highs in the 40s and 50s with lows averaging mostly in the 30s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 236 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends depict an upper level trough over the Northeast United States and another upper level trough over the Southwest U.S. and Colorado. Shortwave ridging is present in between these two troughs over the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon resulting in mostly sunny skies across the area. As of 2 PM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the middle 40s to lower 50s. The potential for wintry precipitation next Tuesday into Wednesday in a highly progressive pattern is the predominant challenge in this afternoon`s forecast issuance. Surface and shortwave ridging will bring a continuation of rain free weather to the Mid-South through Saturday morning. Clouds will increase by Saturday as a warm front begins to move closer towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. 305K surfaces indicate isentropic ascent will gradually increase across the area throughout the day and into Saturday night as an occluding cold front enters the region into Sunday. At this time, it appears the better chances for rain will occur once initial dry air decreases and condensation pressure deficits shrink. Operational model and probabilistic model guidance still indicates instability will remain far removed from the area towards the Gulf of Mexico and kept any mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast for Sunday. Rain chances are expected to taper off into Sunday night with a temporary reprieve coming in between progressive occluding fronts. Long term models continue to suggest an upper level low and occluding front moving through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys next Tuesday into Wednesday. Some elevated instability may be present on Tuesday to produce a potential for thunderstorms over Northeast Mississippi but the overall strong to severe thunderstorm threat is expected to remain well south and east of the area. The operational ECMWF/GFS and its ensembles continues to indicate a potential for wintry precipitation occurring more along a deformation axis closer towards the I-44 corridor in Missouri with lighter precipitation occurring across the Mid- South. The best potential for any light wintry precipitation still appears to be across portions of Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee if low level temperatures become cooler than expected. Confidence in wintry precipitation is low at the moment and have held off of mention in this forecast issuance but will continue to monitor in subsequent model runs as this event draws closer. Stay tuned... CJC && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 VFR conds expected through Saturday evening at the TAF sites. The HRRR does aggressively build the low cloud deck over KY into northern areas of the Mid-South late tonight into Saturday morning. The model does seem to be an outlier attm so will monitor for now. Rain and lower cigs will develop Saturday night as the next system pushes into the area. Light N/NE winds overnight will veer to E/SE Saturday into Saturday evening and remain light. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SWC AVIATION...SJM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
823 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 813 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023 Updated to let advisory for the San Luis Valley expire. Starting to some hints of westward motion in snow bands on the plains as low/mid level circulation wraps up over nern NM, while most persistent area of heavy snow has stayed stubbornly in place from around Trinidad northward into ern Pueblo County. CAMs and new 00z NAM still suggest accumulating snow will at least briefly push westward across El Paso/Pueblo counties overnight, so didn`t make too many changes here. Farther west, Teller/Fremont counties as well as the northern half of the Wet Mountains/Wet Mountain Valley have seen little snow so far, and while we will likely see some light snow redevelop overnight, have begun to cut back pops and snow amounts here, and may need to go even further with cuts in subsequent updates. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 245 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023 Key Message: 1) Snowfall commences this evening, heaviest snow along the southern I-25 Corridor. Currently... Center of the low pressure system is moving eastward and just south of the region. This system is a closed low with moisture wrapped within its periphery. Tonight into tomorrow.. GFS and HRRR models are showing that this low will have surface winds coming in from the east to southeast with upper level winds at the 700 Mb level moving orthogonal to the surface winds bringing warm air advection from a more southerly component. This will cause increasing lift around the warm air advection side of the storm. This will bring moderate to heavy snow to the southern I-25 Corridor and southeast plains tonight into tomorrow with some accumulations up to a foot. Winter Storm Warnings still look on target for Kiowa, Otero, Bent, Prowers, Huerfano and Las Animas Counties. Crowley County has been added to the Winter Storm Warning, as updated model ensembles have shown the possible snowfall accumulations increasing. Currently, a couple of model ensemble members are hinting at possible heavier amounts of snow in Pueblo County, which may prompt an upgrade from a Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning. Models are also showing that portions of southern El Paso County may receive more snow than expected, possibly up to 6 inches in the southeast corner of the county. This may make an issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory necessary for Southern El Paso County. These advisories and warnings are currently set to expire at 5 PM Saturday afternoon, as the snow should lighten up and gradually move out to the east. Snowfall will remain over the Sawatch and Eastern San Juan Mountains. Uncertainty does exist on when the snow in the plains will move out and the magnitude of total snow accumulations as the Low Pressure system could change its direction of movement. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for possible updates. Low temperatures tonight into Saturday morning will be in the 20s over the plains, and single digits over the mountains and mountain valleys. High temperatures Saturday are expected to in the 30s over the plains and in the teens and 20s over the mountains and mountain valleys. -Riser .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 245 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023 .Key Messages... 1) Another system will bring more widespread snowfall late Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. 2) Cool northwest flow pattern continues into the end of next week. Saturday night-Sunday...Moderate northerly flow aloft across the region Saturday night quickly transitions to west southwest through the day Sunday, as the next system to affect the area digs across the Intermountain West and Great Basin. With precipitation winding down from west to east across the plains Saturday afternoon, will see mainly dry conditions areawide through the day Sunday, save for possible light snow/flurries developing across the higher terrain along and west of the ContDvd later Sunday afternoon. Temperatures both Saturday night and Sunday will be tricky and dependent on snow cover, especially across the plains, as developing downslope flow will lead to warming for the higher terrain along and west of I-25 Corridor, with expected snowpack across the southeast plains leading to the coolest temperatures. Sunday night-Monday night...Latest model data, both operational and ensemble runs, are trending towards a more southern solution with the next system digging down across the eastern Great Basin into southeastern Arizona early Monday morning, before continuing to dig south and east across southern New Mexico through the day Monday and into western Texas early Tuesday morning. This pattern would develop deep and moist southerly flow into south central and southeast Colorado Sunday night and through the day Monday, and combined with a surface cold front pushing south and west across the eastern Plains, will lead to widespread light, to at times moderate, snowfall across the area through this timeframe. Snow looks to develop in earnest across the ContDvd and mountain valleys Sunday evening, spreading east across the eastern mtns and I-25 Corridor Sunday night, with snow continuing through the day Monday, spreading south and east across the plains Monday afternoon and evening. Snow accumulation at this time looks to be generally light to moderate areawide, however, will likely continue to change across southeastern Colorado, depending on how long and strong mid level east to southeast upslope flow is before becoming more north to northeast. If the southerly trend in model data continues, may see the highest snowfall along and south of the Highway 50 Corridor, but either way, will likely see travel impacts areawide on Monday with gusty northerly winds leading to blowing and drifting snow. Snow looks to wane from northwest to southeast Monday night, as north to northwest flow aloft develops across the Rockies. Tuesday-Friday...A cool northwest flow pattern, with occasional embedded waves sets up across the region through the end of the work week. This will keep chances of snow for areas over and near the higher terrain and temperatures generally below seasonal levels areawide. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 245 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023 For KCOS..MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the rest of this afternoon. Snow showers are moving off of the terrain and are expected over station by around 22Z. Ceilings and visibilities are expected to remain IFR for most of this evening, with possible LIFR conditions over station later on tonight, mainly after 04Z. Conditions are expected to improve early tomorrow morning, though gusty northerly winds will likely stick around through most of tomorrow morning. For KPUB..Snow showers are expected to make their way over station this hour, with MVFR conditions persisting until around 03Z. Conditions could deteriorate to IFR more quickly than currently forecast, depending on where heavier snow bands set up early in the event. Expect IFR conditions through much of tonight and into tomorrow morning, with LIFR conditions from 03 to 09Z tonight when the heaviest snow is expected over station. Gusty northerly winds are expected through the TAF period. For KALS..Intermittent snow showers and IFR ceilings are expected until 03Z this evening, with a gradual improvement after midnight. VFR conditions are expected by 12Z early tomorrow morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ074-075- 087>089-093>099. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ079-080- 086. && $$ UPDATE...PETERSEN SHORT TERM...RISER LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...EHR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
600 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 The latest RAP mid-level analysis indicates that the area is in a southwesterly flow with moisture moving across Louisiana/Arkansas and much drier air further upstream in Texas. Weak vort energy across East Texas and central Louisiana is providing some forcing along for showers with isentropic lift also aiding development. Showers extend from Deep East Texas into central Louisiana, just starting to move into our southern tier of counties and parishes. At the surface, a 1027 mb high is located north of the area along the Missouri/Kansas border with a broad pressure gradient across the area. A surface low is currently located over the Four Corners region with a frontal boundary extending southeast of it across New Mexico and Texas. Meanwhile, another weak surface low is located over the Bay of Campeche to the south of the area. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows mostly clear skies north of the I-20 corridor with increasing coverage to cloudy skies in central LA/Deep East Texas. Tonight, the area will remain in a southwesterly mid-level flow as the mid-level disturbance shift eastward and isentropic uplift progresses further northward into the area. The forecast is closest to a mean of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) with most hi-res model solutions showing light to moderate showers progressing northward into northern Louisiana overnight and then slowly sliding southeastward by dawn on Saturday. It will be a cool night, with lows closest to the NBM, ranging from the mid 30s in SW AR to the mid 40s from Deep East Texas to the ArkLaMiss. On Saturday, a weak inverted trough across the western Gulf of Mexico will shift northward into the area, reinforcing chances for showers across locations south of I-20 initially. Meanwhile, a surface low will move from the Texas panhandle across Oklahoma during the day, increasing rain chances from the west by the afternoon hours. With this in mind showers are more likely in Deep East Texas and central Louisiana tomorrow with chances decreasing into NE Texas and SW Arkansas. For temperatures, highs are closest to the NBM, ranging from the low to mid 50s across the area. Saturday night, the surface low approaching from the west will merge with the inverted trough as they move across Louisiana and Arkansas. This will allow for showers early in the ArkLaMiss and central Louisiana with rain mostly coming to an end by midnight. Some breaks in the cloud are expected from the west as deeper moisture in the 1000-700mb layer shifts east of the area. Lows again are closest to the NBM. Lows will be in the upper 30s in East Texas and SE OK where more radiational cooling is possible with clouds clearing. Further east, low will be in the mid 40s for central Louisiana and the ArkLaMiss. /04-Woodrum/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 By Sunday morning, rainfall chances will have departed the ArkLaTex, leaving dry conditions in their wake as the upper level trough pushes north and east of the region over the Ozarks and into the Mississippi Valley. Upper level ridging over the Great Plains will provide a brief respite from active weather patterns, with skies clearing by Monday as temperatures remain near or just below seasonable, with lows in the 30s to 40s and highs in the 50s throughout the long term forecast period. The next weather-maker will take shape early next week in the form of a pronounced trough plunging south over the Great Basin and organizing around a large closed low over the Four Corners region. This trough looks poised to dig as far south as the U.S.-Mexico border before advancing eastward into west Texas by Tuesday morning. Impacts on the Four State Region looks to begin in the form of showers across our western zones overnight Monday into Tuesday, continuing with high confidence areawide through the day Tuesday before tapering off from west to east overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Recent guidance has suggested the possibility of brief wintry mix across elevated areas in our northernmost zones of southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas in the early hours of Wednesday. However, this does not feature in the latest NBM run, which resolves precip chances tapering off before temperatures fall to near-freezing values. A slight shift in timing or temperatures may noticeably change this solution, however, so attention should be paid to updates over the coming days. After the closed low and associated troughing lift north and east during the day Wednesday, quiet conditions will prevail for the remainder of the week, while highs in the 50s continue and lows remain largely in the 30s, with a few sub-freezing values across our northern zones possible next Thursday morning. /26/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 VFR conditions will continue through the evening and overnight hours, as extensive AC cigs between 7-11kft linger across much of E TX/N LA/Srn AR through Saturday. Scattered areas of -RA will continue through much of the evening across Lower E TX/N LA along/S of the I-20 corridor, but should begin to diminish at LFK/SHV by 03Z and MLU by 04Z, becoming more concentrated farther S across Cntrl LA overnight. The areas of -RA will not result in any vsby reductions across the region this evening, although additional areas of -SHRA will develop by mid to late morning Saturday across Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, before expanding NNE across more of E TX into SW AR during the afternoon. Cigs will also begin to lower to MVFR by mid to late morning across Deep E TX and Cntrl LA especially as the areas of -SHRA begins to develop/expand ENE, shifting N across much of E TX/N LA during the afternoon. In fact, IFR cigs look to develop by mid-afternoon across Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, and could affect the I-20 terminals by the end of the 00Z TAF period. Given the lowering cigs and developing -SHRA, could also see vsbys reductions across these areas as well, which look to persist through the evening Saturday before the -SHRA diminishes from W to E. ESE winds 3-7kts are expected tonight through Saturday areawide. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 45 54 43 54 / 20 30 20 0 MLU 43 53 46 54 / 20 60 60 10 DEQ 37 52 38 50 / 0 20 20 10 TXK 41 54 42 52 / 0 20 20 0 ELD 38 53 41 51 / 10 30 30 0 TYR 45 54 39 55 / 10 30 10 0 GGG 44 53 41 54 / 10 30 10 0 LFK 45 55 41 57 / 30 50 20 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...15