Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/17/23

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
752 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 750 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 The forecast largely looks on track this evening, but made a few minor changes with this update. Satellite observations show an area of fog/low clouds extending across Niobrara county and into northern Sioux/Dawes counties. Hires models are trending a little more aggressive with fog coverage in the Nebraska panhandle and east central Wyoming tonight into Tuesday morning, so expanded and smoothed the region where the forecast will mention patchy fog. RH is mostly 85%+ along and east of a Sidney to Lusk line at this hour, and should continue to increase as temperatures cool. Lack of clear upslope winds and only one observation showing visibility under 1/4 mile at this time precludes a Dense Fog Advisory, but will need to monitor through the night if fog becomes more widespread. Still though more areas warranted a mention of fog in the forecast. Looking ahead to the main snow event tomorrow night into Wednesday, earlier model outliers are starting to come into slightly better agreement, boosting forecast confidence. The HRRR (which at 18z was a major outlier with a northerly storm track), and the GEFS/GFS (slightly south of model consensus at 12z) have shifted closer to the NBM/ECMWF consensus scenario with their 00z and 18z runs respectively. && .SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 225 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 The upper level system that produced the precipitation yesterday was located over IA. An extensive blanket of low/mid clouds lingered further west over the Dakotas and much of NE. The next Pacific upper level storm was progressing eastward across northern CA and western NV, with leading edge of mid/high clouds spreading into WY/CO. A weak surface trough was situated along the WY Laramie Range, with a decent pressure gradient just to the west. A band of subsidence and weak mountain wave activity kicked up west- southwest winds earlier this morning with brief gusts of 55-60 MPH near Arlington and Buford. The winds have since decreased with the relaxing gradient. Early afternoon temperatures were closer to seasonal normals for mid-January with lower 30s to lower 40s. The forecast challenges during the next 24 to 48 hours will focus on the placement and timing of moderate to heavy snow impacting the I-80 Corridor and points to the north and east with the passage of the next Pacific storm system. During the past 24 hours, models have come into slightly better agreement of a more northerly track of the upper level/surface low, which has resulted in higher QPF/storm total snow projections across southern and eastern portions of the CWA. The 18Z WPCGuide increased QPF about 0.10-0.20 inch and snow accumulations of 1-2 inches. Snow ratios have likewise increased to 12-14:1. The 15Z NCEP ensemble means rose 1-2 inches from the previous 6 hours. At this time, forecast snow totals are heaviest along the I-80 Corridor from eastern Laramie County to Cheyenne County with 6 to 9 inches. With increasing confidence and WFO coordination with LBF and BOU, upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning. Outside the Warning, amounts of 4 to 6 inches are possible for central Laramie County, with 4 to 8 inches over portions of northern and central NE Panhandle. These areas are included in a Winter Storm Watch. Additional watches and advisories may be issued west including the South Laramie Range/Foothills and north along/east of I-25 including Platte and Goshen Counties as there are indications the storm system may be slower to exit. The caveat in the Winter Storm products is the uncertainty in the track of this storm which could impact where the heaviest snowfall occurs. One saving grace with this storm system will be the lack of strong winds. Right now, north to northwest winds on the backside of the low could gust as high as 30 MPH, which would produce patchy blowing snow. The snow tapers off from west to east late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will continue to trend cooler Tuesday through Wednesday night. Expect highs in the 30s, except 20s mountains on Tuesday. Highs Wednesday will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s, except teens to lower 20s mountains on Wednesday. Lows tonight and Tuesday night will range from the upper teens to mid 20s, with upper single digits and teens Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 225 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Snow chances have decreased further Thursday night into Friday morning, staying mainly west of the Laramie Range Thursday evening. Then, along and south of the Interstate-80 corridor early Friday morning and afternoon. Snow accumulations near an inch possible. 2) Snow chances in the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges mainly Friday and late Saturday night through Monday. Additional accumulations 4 to 8 inches possible with the greatest accumulation expected Sunday and Monday. 3) Marginal High Wind chances Thursday and Sunday. Wind gusts 50 to 60+ mph possible. DISCUSSION: The long term period is still looking colder with marginal snowfall and high wind concerns. The High Wind chances have increased slightly Thursday as global models are showing the Tuesday- Wednesday winter storm pushing out a bit slower than guidance was previously showing. This slower push maintains the pressure gradient across portions of southeast Wyoming. High Wind chances remain confined to the wind-prone areas of southeast Wyoming. The snow chances have dropped a little bit more for Thursday into Friday. PoPs are sitting between 10 and 20 percent. Long Range Global models are showing the low dropping south west of the Rockies before developing more near the Four Corners and ejecting eastward. The current trajectory brings it too far south to cause too many impacts to southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. The primary snow chances are Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. Temperatures in southeast Wyoming are quite chilly with high temperatures mainly in low 20s to low 30s. The Nebraska panhandle is a few degrees warmer with highs in the upper 20s to 30s. Valley temperatures may plummet even lower than what is currently forecast if skies clear overnight, especially in areas with a fresh snowpack. Saturday, the weather briefly lulls as a weak ridge positions itself on top of southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle before the next trough is forecast to move in Sunday. Kept PoPs near the same as the previous shift, 30 to 40 percent due to the GFS and ECMWF continuing to show very different solutions. There is still not any real confidence in what the impacts with this winter storm will or will not turn out to be, but the active pattern continues! && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 429 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 An active weather pattern is beginning to take shape with respect to the aviation forecast. Expect VFR for KLAR and KCYS through midday Tuesday. KRWL will see MVFR to IFR conditions beginning at 8Z overnight, and extending through a majority of Tuesday. The difficult forecast overnight into Tuesday will reside with the timing for the NE Panhandle terminals. The HREF and HRRR are aggressive with low CIGs and VIS remaining overnight for all terminals in the Panhandle. Expect the terminals at KAIA and KCDR quickly transition to IFR/LIFR near 4Z/5Z this evening, with KBFF and KSNY likely approaching IFR/LIFR near 10Z early Tuesday. Before then, expect MVFR to become prevalent. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 No fire weather concerns are anticipated this week due to recent and expected snowfall, below normal temperatures, and elevated daytime humidities. Outside of stronger winds this afternoon and Thursday, winds will be non-critical. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for WYZ118. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ119. NE...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for NEZ003-019>021. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM MST Wednesday for NEZ054-055. && $$ UPDATE...MN SHORT TERM...MAJ LONG TERM...LK AVIATION...BW FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
513 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 344 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Western Kansas was in between two storm systems today, yielding quiet weather in the form of a clear sky, westerly surface wind around 10 mph (15 to 20mph up toward Hays), and pleasant mid-Winter afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Tonight, winds will be light and variable in between storms, but we will be watching a weak cold front push south by early Tuesday morning, which will bring an increase in northeast wind along with higher relative humidity supporting low stratus and areas of fog. We have introduced some areas of fog in to the forecast for areas generally along and north of Highway 96, but there is some fairly strong signal of dense fog development with rather high HREF probabilities of 40 to 60 percent for one-quarter mile visibility... particularly in the 13- 17Z time frame. The next shift will need to continue monitoring this possibility for possible dense fog inclusion and perhaps a headline. As the next mid-latitude cyclone develops and approaches the southern Colorado Rockies Tuesday, surface cyclogenesis will increase across southeastern Colorado, and surface winds across our southwest Kansas region will become increasingly easterly component as a result. Warm conveyor belt (WCB) precipitation will begin to develop first across the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as early as 00Z Wednesday with the north-south orientation of the rain axis expanding in length as it moves out across southwest Kansas. The latest 18Z HRRR model run appears to have a pretty good representation of the hourly composite reflectivity and 1-hr QPF field for this type of a system in the WCB airstream, and the POP grids reflect this to a certain degree. The dominant north-south axis of WCB rain will advance eastward fairly quickly late evening into the overnight Tuesday with surface temperatures generally from the mid 30s north to the mid 40s south. We will have to watch the extreme northwestern portions of our forecast area as temperatures will be closer to 32F and probability of a rain-snow mix greater up in that area. There does not appear to be much of a risk for any freezing rain given absence of a pre-existing shallow cold airmass ahead of this storm, thankfully. By daybreak Wednesday, the WCB rain shield will likely be out of our forecast area with the exception of maybe Stafford down to Barber County, but even down there, the dry intrusion air stream will be punching in quickly from the southwest, effectively clearing things out. Cold advection behind the low later in the day Wednesday will certainly be noticeable with strong winds 25 to 35 mph for several hours during the day Wednesday, but no arctic air will be involved behind this storm, so afternoon temperatures Wednesday should still reach upper 30s to mid 40s most areas. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 344 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 A fairly active pattern will continue into the Long Term period. Two more storms appear to be poised for the Central and/or Southern Plains Saturday through Monday. Latest global model consensus is the Saturday storm will track from New Mexico into West Texas/Texas Panhandle with the greatest precipitation signal to the south of Southwest Kansas. The second of the two storm will dig south down the Rockies, which will have a much larger area of colder, Canadian airmass involved, along with stronger north wind. Of all three of these storms, it would appear the last one (Sunday Night-Monday) could pose the greatest risk for hazardous weather in the form of wind-blown snow, colder temperatures, and stronger wind. There is plenty of time to keep watching the evolution in the global spectral models and their trends for both these storms Saturday-Monday, so keep checking back for updates. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 455 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late tonight. Low level stratus developing behind a cold front shifting slowly south across Nebraska, is expected to spread southward into northern Kansas late overnight, potentially reaching as far south as KHYS generally after 09-11Z, and possibly KGCK and KDDC toward daybreak Tuesday morning. MVFR/IFR cigs can be expected at the terminals affected. Light and variable winds are likely to continue through early Tuesday morning despite a weak cold front dipping slowly southward through western/central Kansas before stalling out somewhere in vicinity of the Oklahoma border Tuesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 28 48 32 43 / 0 0 60 30 GCK 25 46 27 38 / 0 0 70 40 EHA 30 55 28 42 / 0 10 40 20 LBL 26 52 28 43 / 0 10 50 10 HYS 27 44 29 37 / 0 0 80 70 P28 33 55 38 52 / 0 0 50 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
503 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 126 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 Below normal temperatures will continue across the Borderland through the upcoming weekend. Breezy to windy conditions will also prevail most days. Mountain snow showers will continue through Tuesday with a break expected Wednesday and Thursday. The next system will bring a chance for some precip to northern areas Friday night into Saturday. A quick break Sunday with another storm system possible for Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 126 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 Our active pattern continues as we remain beneath the jet of a broad long-wave trough covering much of the Lower 48. Within this trough are a couple of disturbances that will affect our weather in the short-term. The first is affecting us now. It will exit late this afternoon or evening with a lull (but not a total break) expected tonight before the second system starts to affect us in the morning. The second system will exit Wednesday morning. Let`s talk about impacts: Precipitation: lowland rain and mountain snows will continue through the whole period. Best chances for precip will remain west of the Continental Divide although models are underdoing how much precip is making it east of the Divide. For example, neither the HRRR nor NAM Nest are showing the current (12pm) band of rain running from the Bootheel all the way into the Sacs. There will probably be a lull this evening and overnight for most locations as this first system departs and then showers should increase areawide tomorrow morning though isolated to scattered showers cannot be ruled out overnight for all areas. As far as snow is concerned, it feels a bit like chasing a moving target. What seems the most certain is snow level with levels keeping above 7500 feet and with accumulation really occurring above 8000 feet. These levels will begin to drop later Tuesday afternoon. For amounts, guidance has a poor handle on totals as liquid QPF fields vary from hardly anything to over 3.5" in the NAM Nest. I will go out on a limb and say the NAM Nest is wrong. Thus, largely based precip amounts and subsequent snow totals on the NBM 4.1 QPF (liquid) mean, ignoring the operational NBM, which shows excessive, warning-criteria snowfall totals in our mountains. This technique yields an additional 2 to 6" of snow in the Gila and Sacs, which seems reasonable although a few spots could easily see an inch or two more than that. Snow will not be continuous, but to avoid confusing messaging, I decided to keep the winter weather advisory for the Gila and Sacs ongoing with its expiration at midnight Tuesday night. Wind: With the persistent jet overhead, there will be persistent lee troughing though the surface low will have a tendency to deepen, shift east and weaken, with a new low forming behind it. This will keep a tight gradient over Southern NM and W. Texas. The surface low today will be relatively weak, but gradients look to be tight enough to bring breezy conditions to part of the area. With that said, winds are not as strong as expected for where the current wind advisory exists likely because the rain is keeping the airmass more stable than forecast. I will therefore cancel it. Winds will subside overnight as the first surface low shifts east, weakening gradients some in addition to the decoupling of the atmosphere. As mentioned, a new surface low will form in its wake, and this one looks to be deeper with a tighter gradient. H700 flow will range 35 to 45 knots with H850 flow ranging 20 to 30 knots. With the rain and clouds and what looks to be a reinforcement of the cool airmass already in place, surface winds will be slow to respond to the pressure falls and increase in winds aloft. We will be breezy, but we look to remain below advisory criteria. The exception could be the Sacs where the CAMs show stronger winds. With all of the current headlines and changes in headlines in place plus the marginal forecast, I will let later shifts take another look and respond accordingly. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 126 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 The Borderland will continue to be under an active weather pattern through the long term which will lead to below normal temperatures and occasional precip chances. Starting Tuesday night, the current system moving out of the Great Basin will be moving out of the area to the northeast, but a last piece of energy on the back side could keep a few snow showers going over the mountains. Elsewhere clouds will be on the decrease with breezy to windy conditions continuing through Wednesday. There will be a deep surface low around the OK Panhandle with a tighter, better oriented gradient across the region than the last couple days. Winds aloft will be less than yesterday, so think speeds will be windy and possibly some areas reaching low end advisory over southern zones. High pressure quickly builds in Wed night and with drier air moving in as well, should see a fairly cold morning Thu with the lowlands into the 20s. Thu should have the lightest daytime winds of the week with sunshine, however, temperatures will still struggle to get above the mid 50s anywhere. Another upper low will be moving out of the southern Great Basin Fri and start to affect the western zones late in the day Friday. West winds will increase to 10-25 mph. Models differ on the strength and placement of this feature as it moves through. The GFS is quicker and further north than the slower, further south EC. Ensemble means of the GFS and EC are similar and a nice compromise which brings the system through west-central NM and would likely lead to precip over the Gila down to maybe the Lordsburg area and then north through Sierra and northern Otero counties. Most of the precip could fall as snow except in the lowest elevations where it could start as rain and possibly mix with or change over to snow if the moisture lingers long enough. This system will drop temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees for Sat. Northwest flow behind this system will bring in some colder, dry air for Sunday. Sunday morning could be the coldest morning of the week with some teens possible in the lowlands if winds drop off overnight. Another system starts to dive out of the Pacific Northwest for early next week. Some big differences in the handling of this energy among the models with the GFS taking energy SW and cutting off a low over southern NV while the EC is now diving the energy straight down the west side of the Rockies and bringing some cold air into the region with the main cutoff over the Dakotas. Again the ensemble means of the two models are in good agreement and looks to support some kind of cutoff developing around AZ. Went with temps a little colder than the NBM which was closer to the MEX temps than the EC with possibly some light precip moving into the area. This system will need to be watched as it has the potential to have some cold air associated with it and is a pattern supporting snow across the CWA. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 457 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 CIGS BKN-OVC040-060 through the night, potentially dropping to 030 on occasion. Very light SHRA early then becoming VCSH, if not already. A return to showery activity by about 12Z Tuesday morning, continuing through the day. -RA to RA possible at times with MVFR CIGS and VIS. Winds 10-15G20-25KT from the southwest on Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 126 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 No significant fire concerns for the period although winds will be breezy to windy. Our cool moist airmass will remain in place through Wednesday morning with precipitation chances continuing. Snow levels will range 7500 to 8000 feet with a few inches possible above that altitude. Winds will top out 15 to 25 MPH in the afternoon with a few gusts to 35 MPH. This will help foster very good to excellent vent rates. Precip chances end for Wednesday but conditions remain breezy. Quieter weather is expected for Thursday before our next system begins to affect the area late Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 48 55 36 52 / 60 70 10 0 Sierra Blanca 43 52 32 49 / 20 40 20 0 Las Cruces 42 51 30 50 / 70 70 10 0 Alamogordo 45 50 25 49 / 70 70 10 0 Cloudcroft 27 29 13 25 / 70 80 20 0 Truth or Consequences 38 49 29 49 / 50 50 0 0 Silver City 33 39 30 38 / 70 80 20 10 Deming 42 50 27 49 / 70 70 10 0 Lordsburg 40 47 28 48 / 70 70 10 0 West El Paso Metro 45 53 33 51 / 70 70 10 0 Dell City 43 56 29 51 / 40 50 10 0 Fort Hancock 42 57 34 53 / 20 40 20 0 Loma Linda 41 48 29 45 / 50 70 10 0 Fabens 47 57 30 53 / 40 60 10 0 Santa Teresa 44 52 29 50 / 60 70 10 0 White Sands HQ 44 52 33 51 / 70 70 10 0 Jornada Range 44 49 25 49 / 70 70 10 0 Hatch 46 50 27 50 / 60 70 0 0 Columbus 42 52 31 49 / 70 70 10 0 Orogrande 43 52 29 50 / 70 70 10 0 Mayhill 36 42 21 38 / 60 70 20 0 Mescalero 33 39 16 38 / 70 80 20 0 Timberon 31 37 17 37 / 70 80 20 0 Winston 32 42 23 41 / 50 50 20 0 Hillsboro 42 46 23 46 / 60 60 10 0 Spaceport 41 50 24 49 / 50 60 0 0 Lake Roberts 31 37 15 37 / 80 80 20 20 Hurley 35 45 26 44 / 70 70 10 0 Cliff 35 46 19 46 / 80 80 20 10 Mule Creek 35 39 17 40 / 80 80 20 10 Faywood 37 44 27 43 / 70 70 10 0 Animas 42 50 26 49 / 70 70 10 0 Hachita 43 50 27 48 / 60 70 10 0 Antelope Wells 42 50 27 48 / 70 70 20 0 Cloverdale 38 42 27 43 / 80 70 20 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Tuesday night for NMZ402-415. && $$ SHORT TERM...34-Brown LONG TERM....26-Grzywacz AVIATION...35-Delizio
National Weather Service Hastings NE
934 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 ...Short Term and Climate Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 933 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 -- Comments regarding at least patchy fog potential Tues AM mainly in our southwestern zones: - Obviously preceding day shifter had their hands FULL with the impending winter storm (totally understandable!), but one shorter-term weather element that has gotten a bit closer look this evening is the possibility for some Tues AM fog particularly within the southwest 1/4 of our CWA. - Have introduced at least "patchy fog" to our official forecast for areas mainly southwest of a Lexington-Franklin-Osborne KS line, with slightly higher confidence "areas of fog" for our extreme southwest counties (mainly Furnas/Phillips/Rooks). Main time frame of concern is 4-10 AM. - These southwestern areas are in theory most favored for at least light/patchy fog development (and MAYBE localized dense fog per models such as HRRR), as these areas will: 1) reside nearest the southern/western fringes of the lower stratus deck currently blanketing the majority of our CWA (the edges of stratus decks are often fog prone)...2) these areas will experience the overall lightest early-AM breezes (solidly under 5 MPH for the most part). - THE BOTTOM LINE/SUMMARY: although overall "small potatoes" compared to the impending winter storm, at least patchy fog has been added to our forecast for mainly our southwestern CWA for Tues AM, as at least localized visibility issues for the AM commute cannot be ruled. Considered introducing a formal fog mention to our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID), but with latest HRRR suggesting the PRIMARY swath of potential dense fog could set up just west-southwest of our CWA altogether, will defer to incoming night shifter to monitor the situation. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 445 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Key Messages: * Significant winter storm with heavy snow and wintry mix on track to impact the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Impacts to travel are likely on Wednesday, with lingering impacts through at least Thursday morning in area of heavy snow. * Portions of the Winter Storm Watch have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning where confidence is currently highest in heavy snow. * Potentially sharp transition zone from heavy snow to wintry mix will likely set up over our forecast area, potentially right across the Tri-Cities. However, travel impacts are still a strong possibility due to cold surface temperatures in the 20s. * The remainder of the forecast looks to be cool, but quiet. Forecast Details: Busy shift today with most time spent on upcoming winter storm. In short, "calm before the storm" tonight and tomorrow with incr clds and seasonably mild temps - lows in the 20s, Tue highs 36F-47F. Attention quickly turns to the winter storm Tue night as the primary upper trough ejects from the Four Concerns region and onto the High Plains by 12Z Wed. System has sped up slightly (~ 3hrs or so), but otherwise can`t say there have been any significant curveballs presented by today`s guidance compared to last night. If anything, some of the probabilistic guidance has trended towards tighter clustering, which suggests they`re getting a better handle on the system, and significant changes going forward are less likely. Worth noting that a significant portion of the upper jet streak will be over land by 00Z tonight, and certainly by 12Z tmrw AM. Thus, have incr confidence that locally we`re looking at three distinct "zones" of weather and impacts, which will be discussed in greater detail below. As for a broader assessment of the upcoming system, a few things strike me as vitally important to determining actual outcomes. 1) Appears there is going to be an initial wave of mod to hvy pcpn late Tue night into Wed AM, associated with direct thermal circulation between low to mid level frontogenesis and upper level divergence. Strong forcing for ascent amidst rapidly incr moisture on 35-45kt H85 LLJ should result in rapidly expanding and intensifying shield of pcpn - perhaps as early as 06Z in the W/SW, and certainly by 12Z for vast majority of CWA. What`s critical with this initial wave is ptype, as this wave will go a long way in determining overall accumulations. Appears 12Z guidance is actually in pretty good agreement showing a transition from hvy snow in the W/NW, to a wintry mix in central areas, to mostly rain in the far SE. Thus, it`s vital to properly assess each ptype and duration in order to formulate an accurate forecast of snow/ice accumulations. 2) Several models (but not all) indicate a real possibility for dry air to wrap into the system from the S/SW, for at least portions of the area, such that cloud ice is eliminated from the column for a significant amnt of time during the day Wed - perhaps 6+ hrs. Model ptypes are notorious for accumulating this as snow, as opposed to much more likely freezing drizzle (fzdz). The 12Z EC, for example, generates up to 1" of snow (assuming 10:1 ratio) where forecast soundings suggest fzdz is more likely given lack of saturation at temps colder than -10C. So outside of far N zones (where actual lgt to mod snow is more likely to persist) and far S zones (where temps will probably be at or above 32F), most areas may actually transition to fzdz from late Wed AM through late aftn/early eve. This poses a significant risk to the downside for snowfall accumulation forecasts for areas S of Hwy 92. 3) Finally...there remains some uncertainty as to the organization of deformation and wrap-around pcpn/snow on the NW side of this system Wed eve into the overnight. While there will likely be SOME snow accums, areas that transition to fzdz during the day Wed, may only have a transition back to lgt snw for 3-6 hrs before accum precip ends. Thus, amounts after 00Z Thu will likely be on the light side at only dusting to 2" for most, perhaps 2-3" over the far N. So again, this stresses the importance of that initial wave of pcpn Wed AM as to overall chcs of meeting, or exceeding, warning criteria snow of 6", or more. As mentioned above, feel there are three distinct zones of impacts with this system: a northern zone from roughly Elwood to St. Paul, to Fullerton, a central zone that encompasses the rest of south central Neb and the N tier of counties in KS, and a third zone over the far south from Rooks to Mitchell Counties. Northern Zone: This is where 12Z deterministic and ensemble guidance was in best agreement for overlapping output of 6"+ of snow. In fact, aforementioned forcing and low level temps argue for SLRs at least a little above climo (or above 10:1), so with storm total QPF averaging 0.75" to 1" in this area, confidence is now HIGH that these locations will receive heavy snowfall. Official storm total snowfall is now 10-11" for ODX, and this may even be a bit low if 15:1 SLRs can truly be realized as Kuchera method and forecast sounding suggest. Regardless, folks in these areas should be prepared for extremely poor travel conditions all day Wed, and it will likely take quite some time even on Thu to dig out. N-NE winds gusting around 30 MPH, will cause SOME blowing/drifting, but nothing significant or "near-blizzard" worthy. Not going to be an overly dry snow, either. 12Z EC suggests about a 6hr period from Wed AM into early aftn for 1"+ hrly snow rates, and this seems quite plausible given strong lift through deep layer of profile, significant isothermal layer of -3 to -5C (for dendrite aggregation), and chance of CSI and maybe even outright CI (thundersnow). This would certainly bring visibilities down to 1/4 to 1/2 mi and make for very difficult driving conditions. Have upgraded portion of this "zone" to a Winter Storm Warning already, and seems probable that absent of major change with 00Z data that this will be expanded another row of counties to the S. Central Zone: By far where the greatest uncertainty exists due to potential for initial round of pcpn to be a wintry mix, along with the fact that dry slot could lead to transition to fzdz for remainder of Wed daytime hrs. With that said, arrival timing and fact that initial sfc temps will be fairly cold (mid 20s to near 30F) still suggests travel impacts could be significant for Wed AM commute. Brief sleet, tenth or two of ice accretion, and up to a few inches of snow will all be possible in this zone, just in the period between midnight Tue night and noon on Wed. So don`t let the lower snow amnts fool one into thinking this will be less IMPACTFUL for travel on Wed. Again, though, use model derived snow accums in this area with great caution. A transition from snow/wintry mix to fzdz later in the day on Wed could certainly keep the slick conditions going thru the Wed PM commute as well. Wrap around lgt snow could add another 0.5-2" Wed night. Accum pcpn will likely wrap up by dawn Thu AM, but impacts from prev snow/ice will probably linger thru Thu AM commute. Summary: High confidence in at least minor to moderate travel impacts, esp. for Wed AM commute, but low confidence in exact snow/ice amnts. Southern zone: Finally, far S counties will likely largely miss out on this one. Could have some brief wintry mix with onset of pcpn late Tue night-early Wed AM, but temps 32-35F should minimize impacts. Highs in these areas should climb to 34-37F, so even if there`s transition to drzl (which seems probable given dry slot placement on models), won`t be fzdz with associated impacts. Could have some impacts crop up Wed eve as temps fall below freezing, either from lgt fzdz or lgt snw, but probably nothing too significant. Summary: Medium to high confidence this area will have least amnt of pcpn, and any travel impacts will probably be limited to Wed eve. Fortunately, the rest of the forecast looks to be fairly quiet through the weekend. Snow amounts will play a large role in temps going it`ll probably be on the cool side, esp. for central and northern areas for late week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday) Issued at 630 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 -- General overview (including winds): High confidence in precipitation-free conditions and fairly high confidence in VFR visibility throughout the period (especially at KGRI). As for ceilings, they are clearly the number one challenge, as although MVFR is expected to prevail the majority of the period, some models/guidance hint at at least a temporary return to VFR and perhaps even a brief period of IFR. Winds not much of an issue, with sustained speeds at-or-below 10KT throughout, with direction gradually transitioning from northwesterly, to northerly, to eventually northeasterly by mid- late afternoon Tuesday. - Ceiling details: We start out under a fairly expansive blanket of MVFR, with the million dollar question being just how persistent MVFR will remain going forward? Although some models/guidance hint that a least a temporary return to VFR (albeit with scattered lower clouds) could return at some point tonight and perhaps again later in the period Tuesday afternoon, other model sets (especially RH time height progs) more strongly suggest that sub-VFR ceiling will be tough to shake. In the end, opted to lean on the pessimistic side of things and officially maintain MVFR throughout. Cannot even rule out a few hours of IFR (especially around sunrise), but was not confident enough to include any prevailing groups below MVFR. - Visibility details: Although am relatively confident that KGRI/KEAR will not experience any long-lasting and/or dense fog development, there are at least some indications that especially KEAR could reside within 50 or so miles east-northeast of an area of more problematic fog that could develop late tonight/Tues AM, especially between 10-15Z. Based on current trends, have reasonably-high confidence that KGRI will remain VFR, but have introduced a low-end VFR (6SM BR) at KEAR to at least "hint" at slightly greater light fog potential there. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 933 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 -- BOTH total precipitation AND snowfall daily records for Jan. 18th could be broken on Wednesday at Grand Island/Hastings (our two primary long-term climate sites for which we issue formal Record Reports). Details follow: Grand Island: - current Jan. 18 precip record: 0.41" in 1931 - current Jan.18 snowfall record: 4.1" in 1931 Hastings: - current Jan. 18 precip record: 0.50" in 1912 - current Jan.18 snowfall record: 2.5" in 1960 && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for NEZ041-047-048-061>063-072>076-082>086. Winter Storm Warning from midnight Tuesday night to midnight CST Wednesday night for NEZ039-040-046-060. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NEZ049-064-077. KS...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for KSZ005-006-017. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Pfannkuch CLIMATE...Pfannkuch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
422 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 233 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA having a westerly flow aloft being underneath the base of a large, broad upper air trough. Current observations and satellite imagery show dry conditions with some scattered high clouds moving eastward across the northwestern quadrant of the CWA and a few high clouds moving eastward out of Gove and Graham counties. Forecast models show this flow continuing through the remainder of the day with an upper air low over northern CA starting to form another trough in the west overnight tonight. Forecast guidance shows this trough deepening and moving eastward with the low being over UT by the late afternoon hours on Tuesday. The CWA upper air flow looks to continue to be westerly during the day before beginning to turn southwesterly as the front part of the trough reaches over the CWA by late Tuesday afternoon. At the surface, the Tri-State area looks to stay dry throughout the short term period. Surface winds look to be out of the northwest around 10-20 kts during this afternoon/evening before becoming slowing and becoming variable overnight and then becoming easterly to southeasterly at 10-15 kts during Tuesday afternoon. The main concern in the short term looks to deal with possible fog on Tuesday morning. While most models agree with the potential for fog for a good portion of CWA for a few hours with low dew point depressions and light winds, they don`t quite agree with how low the visibility will get. Not enough confidence for a Dense Fog Advisory yet, but put in patchy fog in portions of the CWA from around 8Z-16Z. Will continue to monitor this in case visibilities drop and adjust as necessary. Daytime highs for today look to be in the 40s and 50s while overnight lows for tonight look to range between the upper teens and middle 20s. Tuesday`s daytime highs should range between the middle 30s and the middle 40s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 335 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 A rather impactful winter storm system will move through the Tri- State area Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A trough that has recently made landfall on the west coast will move over the Four Corners region and on eastwards as it begins impacting the Great Plains Tuesday night. A surface lee low will form as an extension of this trough. The potential paths of the lee low are narrowing, but still are subject to change. The lee low will begin influencing the Tri-State area Tuesday night and we expect precipitation to begin around 0Z Wednesday. The system is expected to travel to the east-northeast across the southern portion of the CWA and produce heavy snowfall to the northwest of it`s cyclone center. Although the exact areas of highest snowfalls could change, areas along and north of I-70 could see more than 6 inches of snow with locations along and north of highway 36 seeing up to 11 inches of snowfall. Winds will become northerly during the event and could gust up to 27 kts near the Tri-State border with 35 kts gusts possible south of I-70. This could lead to blowing and drifting snow that can reduce visibility. There is also a chance of freezing rain/drizzle occurring in the southeastern quarter of the CWA. Confidence is low that accumulating ice will occur, primarily due to the warm nose around 750 mb being very small and close to freezing. If freezing rain does fall, it will likely start around 03Z Wednesday and end before 18Z. The freezing rain would occur as the precipitation transitions from rain to snow. Snow is expected to be the dominate P-type throughout the event due to a strong dendritic growth zone and temperatures that will likely continually cool after midnight, giving us a midnight high temperature. As temperatures cool throughout the event, the snow-liquid ratios will increase. The ratios will start out around 8- 10:1 and increase to 13-14:1 by the end of the event. The snow will exit the CWA to the northeast before 6Z Thursday due to a weak ridge moving into the area. Impacts throughout the event will include hazardous travel conditions, possible road closures, reduced visibility, and moderate to heavy snowfall on top of pre- existing snowfall. On the morning of Thursday, models depict the upper air low being over IA with a weak ridge west of the CWA and another trough west of that over the western CONUS. This setup giving the CWA a northwesterly flow during the day that turns westerly by Thursday evening as the ridge moves over the CWA. Going into Friday, forecast guidance shows the far western trough moved further eastward with a low having developed in the base over the UT/AZ border in the morning. A trailing strong ridge helps turn this trough in a more positive orientation during the day allowing for southwesterly flow throughout the majority of the day. By Saturday morning, models show the axis of the trough passing over the CWA with the GFS having an open wave while the ECMWF still shows an upper air low possibly starting to close off over NM. The front part of the trailing ridge makes it over the CWA by the Friday afternoon hours allowing for a north-northeasterly flow during the remainder of Saturday. From Sunday onward, the GFS and ECMWF depart from their model solutions as the GFS has the ridge passing over the CWA on Sunday afternoon as another upper air low moves over the MT/ID/WY border. By Monday morning, the GFS shows the CWA having a southwesterly flow aloft as the front part of a positively tilted upper air trough moves over the CWA and remains there for the rest of the day. Alternatively, the ECMWF shows an upper air low developing over Saskatchewan on Sunday morning that moves downward into ND by the evening as it starts to close off giving the CWA a southwesterly flow aloft. For Monday, the low moves over SD by the afternoon and then into central KS by the night hours resulting in a northerly flow aloft. Due to the uncertainty seen in the latter days of the long term period, future model runs will be monitored for better agreement. At the surface, the CWA looks to see two additional chances for wintry precipitation are seen on Friday and on Sunday evening into Monday morning. For the system on Friday, forecast QPF looks to be minimal at this time with not much snowfall as a result. With Sunday/Monday`s upper air pattern being quite uncertain, so does the chances for precipitation on both days. Will monitor as these models become more certain and the systems become less theoretical in the future. Fire weather does not look to be a concern at all with minimum RH values being well above criteria. The Tri-State Area expects to see daytime highs in the upper 20s to lower 40s on Friday followed by Saturday having high temperatures in the lower to upper 30s range. Sunday`s daytime highs look to be in the lower 30s to middle 40s range while Monday sees coolest daytime highs in the middle 20s to lower 30s range. Overnight lows on Friday look to be in the upper single digits to upper teens range followed Saturday and Sunday overnight lows in the lower to upper teens. Monday night sees low temperatures in the lower single digits to the lower teens. Wind chills look to be in the negative and positive single digits and stay above advisory criteria at this time though it will be monitored should these change. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 422 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 For KGLD, VFR conditions through 13z Tuesday, then IFR conditions with 1sm or less in fog and ceilings down to BKN015 at times. By 17z, MVFR skies. Winds, northwest 5-10kts becoming light/variable by 13z Tuesday. By 15z, southeast around 10kts. For KMCK, VFR conditions through 06z Tuesday, then MVFR w/ ceilings around BKN020. By 12z, LIFR/IFR conditions with visibility 1sm or less in fog and ceilings below OVC010. VFR from 18z onward. Winds, northwest 5-10kts through 15z Tuesday, then light/variable. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for KSZ001>004-013>016. CO...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM MST Wednesday for COZ090. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ091. NE...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Tuesday to 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Wednesday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...CA/076 AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1034 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 1033 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 Surface low pressure is centered in Southwest Wisconsin at 03Z. Southwest Lower Michigan is a southeast to south mild/moist flow of air off to the east of the low which is resulting in widespread low clouds and fog. The system is nearly vertically stacked when looking at water vapor imagery. The system is only forecast to slowly move to the northeast tonight across Wisconsin resulting in very little change in our conditions here in Michigan. Low clouds and fog will continue as well as occasional drizzle tonight. The drizzle setup is clearly seen in BUFKIT overviews with deep low level moisture coincident with vertical motion and an unsaturated DGZ. Based on regional radar trends and the latest runs of the HRRR we will see isolated to scattered rain showers as well. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 302 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 ...Rain... Radar shows rain spreading northeast across the cwa, which is really good news considering much of the cwa east of US-131 is in some form of drought. For the most part, observation stations over the north central cwa show temperatures abv freezing lessening the concern for freezing rain. Low pressure over Iowa will be slow to move northeast and really won`t clear the cwa until Tuesday afternoon. Thus we`ll see light rain continue through the evening before becoming showery overnight as the effects of the sfc low diminish in favor of the trailing upper low. Additional rainfall of 0.1-0.2 inches expected through tomorrow afternoon. A little colder air will work in on the back side as the low moves away Tuesday night and there could be some mixed rain and snow showers over Osceola/Clare counties after 06z Wednesday. ...Next Precip Maker Wednesday Night/Thursday... ECMWF/GFS have been consistent in tracking a Southern Plains low northeastward from Oklahoma to Michigan Wednesday night. The ECMWF takes the low across central Lower which places any snow that falls over the northern cwa. The GFS has been consistent in taking a slightly more southerly track which brings a bit colder air farther south into the cwa. Ensembles bear that out with the ECMWF mean at Grand Rapids less than an inch and GFS ensembles averaging around 3 inches. A sizable portion of the GFS ensemble member low tracks take the system north of I-96, giving some credence to the ECMWF and that`s the way we`ll lean. Thus, we`re looking at generally rain south of M-57 and snow or mixed rain/snow north of there. Total snowfall accumulation north of M-57 from Wednesday night through Thursday will be in the 1-3 inch range. Forecast soundings suggest some freezing rain may also mix in along the US-10 corridor east of US-131 as well. ...Dry Weekend... Once the Thursday system moves east, Friday and Saturday look dry. A southern stream system moves toward the Ohio Valley. The dryer ECMWF would keep us dry through the weekend, but the GFS phases the trailing short wave with a deeper low behind it and draws moisture northward. That would produce some light snow over the southern cwa if it happens. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 718 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 Poor aviation conditions are expected to remain in place the next 24 hours. Ceilings will be IFR and LIFR the entire time with bases below 1,000 feet. The best chance at LIFR will occur overnight between 06Z and 12Z. As for visibilities, MVFR is the most likely category (3-5SM) as winds in the lowest 2K feet will 20-40 knots. Winds of that speed will preclude visibilities from dropping too much. Winds will gradually veer from the southeast this evening to southwest and west on Tuesday as low pressure passes by to our northwest. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2023 We`ve extended the Small Craft Advisory through Wednesday morning. Despite there likely being a lull in wind tonight, winds will pick up Tuesday ahead of the next low and continue into Wednesday, resulting in hazardous conditions to small craft. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...Duke DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...Duke MARINE...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
558 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 ...00Z AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 403 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Key messages: - Patchy fog to areas of fog tonight into Tuesday morning across the west. - A winter storm is forecast to bring heavy snow to a large portion of western and north central Nebraska from late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Storm Watches are in effect. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 403 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 The latest hi-resolution models including the HRRR and RAP are forecasting fog for areas near and west of Highway 83 tonight into Tuesday morning. Some of the fog could be locally dense. A saturated shallow layer will have drier air aloft and clear to partly cloudy skies to promote fog formation. A deep upper trough will move into the Intermountain West tonight. GFS 500mb height anomalies are near 225 meters below normal across srn California into western Arizona by 12Z as upper ridging begins to develop upstream across the Central Plains. On Tuesday, The upper trough with a closed low will reach the Four Corners by late afternoon. An easterly upslope flow will develop across Kansas and Nebraska into eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. Skies will become cloudy all areas with stratus expected. this will hold highs down during the day to the low to mid 30s. A winter storm is forecast to move into the area Tuesday night as the closed upper low moves into southeast Colorado by 12Z Wednesday. A well-defined deformation zone is expected to develop north of the closed low from northeast Colorado into the southern panhandle, southwest Nebraska and far northwest Kansas. After midnight, six hourly QPFs forecast to range from 3 to 4 tenths of an inch near and south of highway 2. Heavy snow is likely to occur with snowfall amounts from 2 to 4 inches and upward of 5 inches. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 403 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Model consensus from the is for the H5 low to track from far southeast Colorado 12Z Wednesday, across north central Kansas by 00Z Thursday, then into central Iowa by 12Z Thursday. This is a favorable storm track for our forecast area to receive heavier QPFs. Ensemble mean QPFs from the ECMWF, Canadian and GFS places the axis of heaviest precipitation across northeast Colorado, through southwest and central into eastern Nebraska. The latest NBM has increased POPS to near 90 percent across southwest into central Nebraska. Confidence is now medium to high on the track of this system based on ensemble mean QPFs. Trends in placement of ensemble means are fairly consistent, with the ECMWF to most consistent the past few runs. Based on the latest WSSI index and the track of this system, A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for all counties near and south of Highways 2 and 91. Storm total snowfall amounts from 7 to 11 inches and locally higher are forecast. Meanwhile a Winter Storm Watch was issued for all remaining counties in north central Nebraska. Storm total snowfall amounts in the watch area of 3 to 9 inches are possible. The potential for a wet heavy snow exists. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour are supported, and could near two inches per hour for a few hours. Moderate to heavy snow is expected. Northeast winds on Wednesday will become northerly with gust to 25 mph possible. This could create some blowing and drifting. This winter storm is shaping up to be a major winter storm. In fact, at North Platte Airport, the daily record snowfall is 9 inches set in 1988. The latest forecast is near 10 inches. Also the daily record water equivalent is 0.76 inches. set in 1883. The forecast amount is 0.90 inch. Another upper trough is forecast to drop southeast from the Rockies into the Central and Northern Plains Thursday night into Friday night. Low level moisture look quite limited. Current NBM forecast is just a 20 percent chance of light snow across far southwest Nebraska. Regarding high temperatures this week, mid to upper 20s Wednesday, upper 20s to lower 30s Thursday and Friday, and low to mid 30s Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 549 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Low stratus will continue to filter in from the northwest this evening leading to deteriorating flight conditions at area terminals. Expect a quick onset to MVFR at LBF with overnight CIGs falling to IFR conditions. IFR with periodic LIFR criteria conditions are likely to persist at VTN through the period. Though CIGs improve gradually late in the period at LBF, onset of precipitation and a return to IFR will occur just beyond the valid period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for NEZ004>010-094. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday to midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Wednesday night for NEZ022>025-035>037- 056>059-069>071. Winter Storm Warning from midnight Tuesday night to midnight CST Wednesday night for NEZ026>029-038. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roberg SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...NMJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
610 PM PST Mon Jan 16 2023 .UPDATE...A dense fog advisory was issued for the Kittitas valley. Area web cams along I-90 Thorp-Kittitas show reductions in visibility along with KELN reporting dense fog for the last two hours. High clouds are currently masking low clouds on satellite but a persistent deck and fog was present across the Kittitas valley prior to the loss of sunlight. Looking at obs in/around the valley, a slight inversion to isothermal conditions inferred at surface and near surface with the surface saturated. "Virtual soundings" dew point profile show little-to-no change in the vertical that is composed of nearby obs. This is in tandem with surface high pressure near/overhead where there is more subsidence. As such, current thinking is this setup will maintain the fog present over the Kittitas valley. Looking at guidance, a limited signal is present in the latest HREF but there are modest probs of 1/2 mile or less (appears up to 50%). Likewise, guidance isn`t capturing the current situation. Dense fog advisory goes through 10 AM. Meantime, with temperatures cooling just slightly may see some slippery conditions with dense freezing fog as well. Elsewhere, confidence in hazardous conditions from fog across the Lower Basin, Blues, and the eastern Gorge is low (less than 30-50% confidence but will monitor). Albeit, slightly higher confidence in the Northern Blues/Meacham. Current moisture setup and surface dewpoint depression lowers confidence across the Gorge and Lower Basin at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 218 PM PST Mon Jan 16 2023/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...A broad upper level trough is present over the western U.S. with a split flow aloft. The strongest energy is over the Great Basin in the southern branch of the flow. Marginal instability associated with the weak cyclonic flow has resulted in a isolated mountain snow showers, and there is a weak embedded wave that will bring scattered snow showers to the WA and northern OR Cascades overnight. Otherwise, the only noteworthy weather tonight will be the return of fog and some freezing fog. Dense fog developed early this morning in the Kittitas Valley, the eastern Columbia River Gorge, and locally in the Yakima Valley. There will be more subsidence and stable conditions as a shortwave ridge builds over the region. The latest NBM seems to be catching up with the increasing potential for fog and low clouds based on its latest runs with CIGS less than 1000 feet in the same areas that had dense fog this morning as well as across Benton and Franklin Counties. The HREF visibility from the mean ensemble solutions also shows this area with 4000-6000 meters (2-3 miles) in visibility tonight. Additional Dense Fog or Freezing Fog Advisories may be needed tonight. Tuesday will be another dry day with the exception of 20-40 pct chance of snow along the WA/OR Cascade crest. This is associated with a weak west-northwest flow aloft and a shallow front bringing precipitation west of the Cascades. The shortwave ridge will travel east Tuesday night, and the upper flow will increase from the southwest. A well-defined cold front off the coast will move inland Wednesday morning, but the front will stretch apart in a split flow aloft. Run by run, models are trending with less QPF and less wind. The front will lower snow levels down to around 1500 feet, and there will be snow accumulations in the mountains and valleys. Therefore, the winter weather needs to be addressed in terms of road conditions. However, snow accumulations will be light and are not expected to meet advisory criteria. The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles all show MEH receiving 2-4 inches of snow, and SMP around 3-7 inches. Although snow levels lower considerably behind the front, there will be drier air with little to no accumulation in the Lower Columbia Basin and surrounding valleys. Just ahead of the front, slight warm air advection aloft will bring a slight chance (15 pct) of light freezing rain or sleet along the east slopes of the Cascades Wed morning. This was a tough decision on whether or not to add a chance of freezing rain to the forecast. The HREF shows precipitation type as snow through 12Z Wednesday, but the HRRR has an area of mixed precipitation early Wednesday morning, mainly near the Mt. Adams area. Will have the slight chance in the forecast for a few areas along the Cascade east slopes. Wister/85 LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...The main concerns in the extended forecast period are a departing upper trough on Thursday, and then another upper trough for Saturday and Sunday. An upper low pressure system will be sagging southward with the flow aloft becoming northerly in the wake of a departing upper low on Thursday. This will likely result in cooler temperatures from what we have recently been having. Temperatures will be near steady from Thursday - Friday, and then a couple of degrees warmer on Saturday ahead of another upper trough passage. Then they will be cooling again on Sunday through Tuesday behind that next trough. There are some significant differences between the deterministic models, mostly with the depth and amplitude of the upper trough by Saturday. Cluster analysis for Saturday shows the GFS having an 80 percent variance in one of the clusters, with a variance of 45 percent by the Canadian, and only 12 percent by the ECMWF. As such, have little confidence in the sharper depth and amplitude of the GFS and Canadian solutions, and am leaning more to the ECMWF solution. However, with that said, the flow will still become northerly again by Sunday, with better agreement between the deterministic models and ensembles by Thursday evening. However, deterministic models will diverge again on Saturday. Then they become more in line with each other again by late Tuesday. These fluctuations on consistency leave the extended period more uncertain with lower confidence in the forecast. There will be enough moisture with the upper trough on Saturday and Sunday for some light snow in the mountains, and mostly rain in some of the lower elevations, mainly along the Cascades and the eastern and northeast mountains. However, snow amounts will only be a dusting to an inch in the lower mountains and mountain valleys, and up to only 3-5 inches over the crests of the Cascades and the higher peaks and ridges of the eastern and northeast mountains. Elsewhere in the forecast area, precipitation will be either very light, or none at all, with any snow accumulations less than a half inch, and QPF amounts less than a hundreth or two of an inch. Therefore, and not anticipating any winter weather highlight amounts of snow at this time. All of the NBM probabilities are very low (10 to 20 percent), for even the highest peaks and ridges for advisory or warning amounts of snow. The rest of the long term will be mostly dry outside of Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will start out in the lower to mid 40s lower elevations on Thursday through Saturday, and then cooling to the mid 30s to lower 40s on Sunday through Tuesday. Low temperatures will start out in the upper 20s to mid 30s lower elevations, and teens and 20s in the mountains on Thursday. Then they will cool to the lower to mid 20s by Saturday, but warming a bit again on Sunday before cooling again to the upper teens to mid 20s Monday through Tuesday in the lower elevations. In the mountains low temperatures will be in the upper single digits to upper teens Friday and Saturday, cooling to the mid single digits to mid teens by Monday and Tuesday. Winds are expected to be light in most areas through most of the extended period. However, it will be locally breezy on Thursday with the departing upper trough, and then again on Saturday afternoon and evening with the next upper trough passage. Then they will become light again for Sunday night through Tuesday. 88 AVIATION...00Z TAFs...The LIFR to MVFR conditions at KDLS, KYKM, have become mostly VFR this afternoon, and will remain so through the evening. After that, night time radiational cooling will allow the lower elevation inversions to become stronger again, which will result in all terminals having LIFR to MVFR conditions again by tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. These conditions will likely persist through most of the day Tuesday. Winds will be light at all terminals through the next 24 hours and less than 10 Kts. 88 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 32 44 32 47 / 0 0 0 40 ALW 33 44 32 46 / 0 0 0 30 PSC 32 42 32 47 / 0 0 0 30 YKM 28 41 29 42 / 0 0 10 60 HRI 32 45 32 48 / 0 0 0 30 ELN 29 38 28 39 / 0 0 10 70 RDM 26 42 29 44 / 0 0 0 70 LGD 30 39 27 38 / 10 0 0 30 GCD 28 39 26 41 / 10 0 0 50 DLS 35 45 35 46 / 10 10 20 90 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for WAZ026. && $$ SHORT TERM...85 LONG TERM....88 AVIATION...88 UPDATE...80
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
333 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 147 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 Key Messages: 1) Moderate to heavy snow continues tonight into Tuesday over the higher terrain, with the highest snowfall amounts expected over the eastern San Juan mountains. 2) Snow moves into the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide very late in the day on Tuesday. Relatively quiet day today, as the upcoming mid week system takes shape over the western CONUS. Some development has occurred across the Continental Divide today, though amounts and impacts have been limited given the lacking large scale support. With the approaching system and more energetic flow, will likely see development ramp up across the Continental Divide this evening, especially across the southwest mountains. This will support returning moderate to heavy snowfall to these locations tonight into Tuesday. With snow development also increasing over remaining areas of the higher terrain tonight, no changes were to the current Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warning in place. As snow increases across the mountains this evening, some scattered snow shower development across the high mountain valleys will be possible tonight. This potential looks to increase more so Tuesday, especially across the San Luis Valley, with the approach of the upper level system. Amounts do look to be on the light side for the San Luis Valley, though isolated stronger snow showers can`t be ruled out. As the upper level system rapidly approaches later in the day Tuesday, will really see development increase in coverage and intensity across most of the higher terrain and mountain valleys. This development will begin to spill into the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide very late in the day. Given the warmer initial conditions in place, think impacts will be limited during this time. That being said, guidance is showing a quick ramp up in large scale ascent. So, even if the snow may not accumulate on area roadways late Tuesday afternoon, there could be some stronger snow showers with potential significantly reduced visibility. Elsewhere across the southeast plains, rain showers and even some rumbles of thunder will be possible late in the day Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 147 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 Key messages: 1) Snow will be likely for the higher terrain, and possible over portions the plains from Tuesday evening through early Thursday morning. 2) Strong winds with blowing snow will be possible throughout the afternoon and evening on Wednesday over the eastern plains and Palmer Divide with reduced visibilities at times. 3) A colder storm will impact the region later this week and through the early part of the weekend with more chances of snow, especially for the plains on Friday through Saturday morning. 4) A third system will impact portions of southeast Colorado beginning late Sunday into next Monday. 4) Temperatures throughout the week will continue to get progressively colder and well below the seasonal average for most locations by Friday, with only a slight rebound through the weekend and then cooler again next Monday. Detailed discussion: Tuesday night through Tuesday... The longwave trough over the western CONUS will continue to deepen and advance towards the region, along with a major shortwave trough associated it, which will allow for the southwesterly flow to provide snow over the higher elevations. There will be considerably higher amounts likely over the Eastern San Juan Mountains, with some areas receiving as much as 2 feet of additional snowfall during this period in the forecast. Along with this will be stronger winds across the peaks and this will likely result in tricky travel conditions for the Wolf Creek pass with blowing snow and occasional white out conditions. Lesser amounts will occur over the Central and Sangre de Cristo Mountains, given the orientation of the winds and moisture feed in the mid levels. Although, there will still be new snowfall accumulations between 3 to 5 inches, and with the stronger winds, will make for tricky travel for places such as Monarch Pass. Ahead of this system, there will be some areas of areas of unstable CAPE with values of up to 300 J/kg moving over the plains during the later hours of the evening tomorrow, which could produce some a few isolated convective showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. There also will be some weak instability over the San Juan Mountains which could result in thundersnow. Initially, all of the precipitation will begin as rain for most of the plains, then transition to snow during the early morning hours on Wednesday as colder air is advected in from the north and snow levels drop. Model guidance at this time is still having a difficult time with the placement of the associated surface low pressure center with this major shortwave trough, and has been fluctuating between it being further to the north over the lower Arkansas River Valley and southward closer to the CO/NM border. The latest GFS runs have been trending to the location being further to the south, which could help to increase snowfall totals over the plains if it verifies. The HRRR has been keeping things much drier that other models, but it could be over-mixing with a dry bias that has this model under-performing with QPF. Due to this, there is not high confidence at this time where exactly the position will be, and the difference of the low being slightly altered to the north or south could make a drastic change on how much snow the plains receive on the backside of the low. A slight change in the upcoming models could produce a much different outcome in terms of snowfall totals across the plains, and therefore this will continue to be closely monitored as this storm evolves. The general track with a consensus of the models continues to be more to the northeast, yet the GFS model does appear to be taken the track more to the ENE. A more NE`ly track would not favor much of the southern I-25 corridor getting as much wrap around moisture, but a more ENE`ly track may help to bring in a little more moisture over this area and there could be better snowfall amounts if this does occur. The northern I-25 corridor, especially the Palmer Divide, still looks to do very well with snowfall amounts with a majority of the higher resolution models. In addition, there will be a period during the early morning hours where the southern I-25 corridor could do better with snowfall, depending on how far south the TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) extends. Given the position of the low, there could also be higher amounts over the eastern plains, along the CO/KS border, mainly north of highway 50. Again, this will all depend on where the low pressure center establishes itself. With colder air advected in from the north, temperatures will be around 10 degrees colder for highs on Wednesday from where they are expected to be on Tuesday. Along with snowfall will be stronger winds on the backside of the low as well as it undergoes cyclogenesis and tightens the pressure gradient at the surface. There could be some locations over the eastern plains with gust exceeding 30 mph by the afternoon on Wednesday. These winds, in combination with heavier snow bands (depending on where they set up) could cause significantly reduced visibilities for areas of the lower Arkansas River Valley and northward due to blowing snow. There could also be areas of El Paso County, mainly the Palmer Divide and Monument Hill that also will experience blowing snow through the early mornings on Thursday. Some areas that receive several inches of snowfall, with the most likely locations being over the Palmer Divide and eastern Kiowa County. Most models have been consistent with a majority of the snow ending by around noon on Thursday, this clearing taking place throughout the afternoon as the low progresses further east and allows for high pressure to begin building back in. Highs will be slightly warmer and winds will also diminish into the evening hours. Friday through Saturday... Determinist and ensemble models alike are in somewhat agreement with the progression of another shortwave trough that will be propagating over the region on Friday. Although, the position of the low pressure center has continued to be inconsistent. The GFS now has a secondary low over northeastern Colorado late Friday evening and the main low is much closer to our CWA, over northern New Mexico. The ECMWF is much further to the southwest, over southeastern Arizona, and the Canadian has the low almost directly over the center of Arizona. The leads to more uncertainty as to how much this storm will impact southeastern Colorado in terms of snowfall. If the GFS verifies, there will be better snowfall amounts for the plains with a more favorable setup for isentropic upgliding. A cold front will move through during the morning, and it will be a colder airmass as well and NBM has continued to trend down slightly with the high temperatures for Friday in recent model runs. Snow will continue over the mountains and southern plains into the early morning hours and then taper off later in the day on Saturday. It will also begin to warm up slightly on Saturday as high pressure builds back in over the region. Sunday through Monday... With the ensembles, the slightly warming trend looks to continue throughout the weekend as a weak ridge temporarily builds in ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will have a very similar propagation to the one that moves over on Friday. Snow will begin over the mountains late Sunday evening, and this wave could also provide another shot at snow for the plains. It will also send another cold front through with a cooldown in temperatures again for highs on Monday. -Stewey && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 147 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 VFR conditions and dry weather are expected across PUB and COS through much of this period, with mid/high clouds continuing to periodically move overhead. With some potential for isolated rain/snow showers at both locations, did add a VCSH late Tuesday afternoon. Generally lighter winds in place, with steadier east southeast winds returning during the day Tuesday. Expect similar dry weather with VFR conditions at ALS for much of tonight. As snow increases over the mountains this evening, there is some potential for some isolated snow showers to move across the terminals during that time. While this is a possibility, think drier weather will prevail and so have continued a dry TAF tonight. Guidance continues to suggest a trend towards MVFR ceilings at ALS early Tuesday morning, so did lower ceilings during this period. Snow development does look to increase Tuesday morning, and don`t see why lowering ceilings won`t be a likely scenario. Then, expect periodic snow showers for ALS for much of Tuesday with southerly winds/gusts increasing in the afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 5 PM MST Wednesday for COZ058-059-081-082. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Wednesday for COZ060. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM MST Wednesday for COZ065>067-073-075. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM MST Wednesday for COZ068. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM MST Wednesday for COZ084. && $$ SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...STEWARD AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
643 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 640 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 Dense freezing fog continues and has expanded across the Wind River Basin this evening. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 5 AM Tuesday due to area observations and webcams reporting very low visibilities across much of the Basin. Light winds should prevent much movement of the fog through the overnight hours. Fog will become light snow around sunrise or during the early morning hours Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1230 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 The deformation area and weak shortwave trough that produced the snow from yesterday into last night has moved northeast to the northern Plains today. Some lingering light snow showers are possible for a couple of hours yet over the Bighorn Mountains and northern Johnson County, but should finish up this evening. Patchy dense fog is the story for today as several basins have been dealing with it for hours, including the Upper Green River Basin, the Wind River Basin, and the Bighorn Basin along the Bighorn River. Sunlight and warming should help to dissipate the fog during the late morning and afternoon hours, but it`s also entirely possible for the fog to hold on through the afternoon, especially from Big Piney to Pinedale and along the Wind River where very light wind and poor insolation will keep the cold pools intact. Have adjusted the forecast to include the possibility of patchy fog remaining through the day, then strengthening again this evening and overnight. Winds will be on the light side today with some areas seeing gusts 20-25 mph this afternoon. An upper-level low over central California will move eastward late today into Tuesday, increasing moisture and clouds from the southwest. High clouds are already pushing into southwest WY. Latest model runs indicate snow showers developing across SW WY and Sweetwater County between 3-6 AM Tuesday morning and moving northward through the day. As the low moves over central UT, a decent surface low also develops over the same area, reversing the pressure gradient such that N-NE winds develop over central and southern WY Tuesday afternoon, leading to upslope conditions from some areas Tuesday afternoon and evening. According to the latest NAM and HRRR runs, a first shot of precipitation will develop across Sweetwater and Sublette Counties, then move NE into central WY and the southern Bighorn Basin during the day. As the low moves into central CO Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, the surface flow becomes more northerly, and snow will increase from southern Johnson into Natrona County and westward into eastern Fremont County. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph and cause blowing and drifting snow issues along some travel corridors. The current forecast is calling for 1-3 inches across portions over SW into southern and central WY, with some locally higher 3-5 inch amounts. Areas in the northern Bighorn Basin as well as YNP have the lowest expected amounts under half an inch. While mid-level temperatures drop a few degrees to increase the instability with the storm, surface temperatures will be persistent until later Wednesday into Thursday when skies clear some and the storm moves to the east. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 100 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 The mid-week upper-level low will be moving eastward from Colorado into Kansas Wednesday morning. Our forecast area will see lingering snow showers with mean northerly flow, mainly over central into southern WY. The snow showers should diminish by noon, with skies clearing from the northwest. Behind the trough axis, colder mid-level air will move over WY with northwest flow, making for a chilly day and night. Thursday morning is likely to see temps drop to singles digits above and below zero for most of the area. Another upper-level low from the PacNW will slide SE into the Great Basin on Thursday, increasing clouds early across western WY with some light snow showers possible in the northwest WY mountains. The track of this low is more southerly than previously expected, toward the Las Vegas area, which changes the previously expected precipitation forecast over western and central WY. Light snow is now expected across much of western WY Thursday, moving into southwest and southern WY Thursday night into Friday morning, with a slight chance across central WY. This latest track is expected to keep the heavier precipitation to the SW over Utah, and only bring a couple of inches so areas of SW WY. As this low drop to northern AZ and NM Friday into Saturday, cold NW flow will remain into Saturday as high pressure builds to the west. The result for our area however is continued below normal temps, with morning low between -10 and + 15 F. Global medium- range models are all indicting another upper-level low dropping out of British Columbia into the northern and central Rockies, bringing yet another good chance of widespread snow and continued cold temperatures. They are however disagreeing on the path of the upper-level low center (to the east or west of WY), so details are obviously quite muddled. Gusty southwest wind is also expected to return to the typical locations starting on Thursday when the mid-week low pressure system moves into the central Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 330 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals. A weak system begins to approach southwestern Wyoming this evening. This will return lower ceilings and snow chances to terminals overnight. Accordingly, have at least VCSH at all terminals by 06Z. While this is a relatively low confidence event for terminal impacts, KBPI, KPNA, and KRKS have the best chance at prevailing light snow Tuesday morning, with KJAC seeing a better chance in the afternoon. East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals. Fog has more or less persisted through the day across central Wyoming, and is expected to continue overnight. Accordingly, IFR/LIFR conditions are likely to prevail at KLND and KRIW. KWRL also has a chance at seeing some fog late tonight given there was some noted there this morning. Additionally, a weak system will push into southwestern Wyoming tonight, bringing a chance for light snow impacts to terminals east of the Divide starting around 12Z Tuesday. Most terminals will prevail light snow by late Tuesday morning. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued AT 1230 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 Latest snow producing system has moved to the northeast today, leaving partly cloudy skies and areas of fog in the basins. The western mountains picked up 4-8 inches of new snow with a dusting to one inch elsewhere. Fairly seasonable mild day today with clouds increasing from the southwest this afternoon. Snow showers will move into SW WY around 3AM and spread northeast through the morning. Light snow will spread into central WY during the middle of the day, with some areas of moderate snow during the afternoon and evening. Most locations will see some snow, with 1-3 inches in the central and southern higher terrain and around 2 inches in the lower elevations of central WY. Breezy SW wind today from southern into central WY will weaken Tuesday morning, and switch to NNE late Tuesday afternoon from central into southern WY, with gusts up to 30 mph. Snow continues Tuesday night into Wednesday morning to mainly impact portions of central WY with snow showers ending Wednesday afternoon. Slightly colder temps develop Wednesday night into Thursday. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for WYZ016>018. && $$ UPDATE...Hensley SHORT TERM...McDonald LONG TERM...McDonald AVIATION...Myers FIRE WEATHER...McDonald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1001 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 ...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM... .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Added patchy fog for a large portion of our area after midnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 950 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Most of the showers have already worked out of the eastern half of our cwa, but HRRR is showing a little more possible so we have extend the early evening 3hr grid for 6hrs total until midnight. After midnight, we may see a bit more fog cropping up with near saturation already and light wind. Satellite shows most of the denser mid and high clouds running along and south of I-20. A better chance at seeing stars comes after midnight and with that likely a little more fog too. 10 pm temps are mostly in the low to mid 60s except for DeQueen just a few degrees away from the low with some cold air drainage, but thinking they will hold close. No changes needed to temps, but we did update obs and diurnal trend. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 154 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Bottom Line up Front: Active long-term with severe weather possible Wednesday afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible, with damaging winds being the primary threat. Rain returns to the region this weekend, which depending on trough ejection, could result in another heavy rain scenario. By Wednesday, a trough will begin to eject through the Plains, with a surface low developing along the OK/CO border and moving east. The catalyst for the severe weather will be a cold front that develops ahead of this longwave trough, tied to the surface low. The environment overhead of the current Slight Risk will be rich with both shear and moisture, with surface dewpoints climbing into the upper-60s by early afternoon. The biggest limiting factor on Wednesday will be instability, as clouds and timing will keep instability values below 1000 J/Kg. Regarding the tornado potential, there is ample shear for these storms to work with, and forecast wind profiles show some veering with height. However, that limited instability won`t help tornado potential, and veer-back-veer wind profiles may not help either. All that to say, tornadoes don`t look like a slam dunk, but I`m certainly not going to say they won`t happen. This is why right now, damaging winds look to be the main threat with this severe weather. Jumping straight into the weekend after a short break Thursday and Friday, rain chances will increase once again associated with a possible closed low moving east into the Midwest. This one is far less certain, but current ejection and location of the closed low could be favorable for a heavy rain scenario to develop across the region. This one is only worth the mention, because recent trends have the low speeding up, as opposed to slowing down, which would be needed for the rain. Regardless, look for shower and thunderstorm chances to return and remain through the weekend. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR becoming MVFR with some showers ahead of a weak front in SE OK on approach, but this boundary only touch and go overnight along our I-30 corridor. We will keep SW sfc wind area wide through Tuesday 5-15KT. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during Wednesday with the next stronger cold with NW sfc winds arriving on Thursday and then NE winds for Friday before our next system arrives w/ convection next Sat. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 59 78 61 73 / 0 0 20 90 MLU 60 76 60 75 / 40 0 10 90 DEQ 47 72 53 69 / 0 0 40 70 TXK 56 75 59 70 / 10 0 30 80 ELD 57 73 56 69 / 10 0 20 100 TYR 55 78 61 72 / 0 0 30 70 GGG 56 78 60 71 / 0 0 20 80 LFK 58 79 62 73 / 10 0 20 90 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...24