Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/13/23

National Weather Service Albany NY
958 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system and a warm front will bring steady rainfall for most locations overnight. Some areas of freezing rain are possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens until early Friday morning before changing to rain. The rainfall will taper off on Friday and it may end as a period of snow for the western Adirondacks. Cooler, breezy and dry conditions are expected for the weekend. Temperatures will return back above normal next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 955 PM EST...A positively tilted mid and upper level trough continues to impact the forecast area tonight, as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley and western PA based on the latest RAP. The warm front and cyclone continues periods of moderate rain with some localized areas of freezing rain across the southern Adirondacks in the northern Hamilton and northern Warren Counties, as well as portions of southern VT, where the Winter Weather Advisory continues. Some pockets of freezing rain continue to be possible in eastern Windham County, where some temps are around 32F. We have an SPS going there. We did cancel northern Fulton County with this update with temps in the mid and upper 30s. The NYS mesonet shows temps have warmed into the 33-35F range across portions of the southern Adirondacks and the Lake George Saratoga Region. Chestertown is still 32F. To side on caution we kept the Advisory going in this area of the Adirondacks. The 850 hPa low-level jet continues to be from the south/southwest at 45-65 kts tapping some Gulf moisture with anomalous PWATs +2 to +3 STDEVS (based on the NAEFS) above normal. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain are possible across the forecast area due to the strong QG lift. Some thunderstorms popped up over the southern Berkshires, Litchfield Hills, mid Hudson Valley and southeast Catskills. We expanded the slight chance of thunderstorms a few more hours until midnight with the SPC RAP mesoanalysis indicating Showalter values in the 0 to -1C range in the southeast extreme of the forecast area. Some MUCAPE is also in the southeast portion of the forecast area closer to the warm front of a few hundred J/kg or less. A lull in the rain is possible in the early morning hours, as a dry slot briefly moves in south and east of the Capital Region with the warm front lifting through, the latest 3-km HRRR/NAM indicates showers or intermittent rain should fill back in. Temps will rise overnight into mid/upper 30s over the southern Dacks to 40s across most of the region with lower 50s in the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and NW CT. Southeast winds over the eastern Catskills, Taconics and western New England higher terrain will continue 10-20 mph with some gusts around 30-35 mph. Stable layers close to the surface should help prevent winds from getting closer to advisory criteria, so no wind headlines at this time. Towards daybreak, the main area of low pressure will be lifting from NE PA into the Catskills. Another round of steady precip will be occurring on the western side of the low pressure area, which will mostly be over western and central NY. However, as the low pressure continues to track to the northeast, this round of steadier rainfall may start to track into parts of the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks towards daybreak, while additional showers push northward on the eastern side of the storm. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will be moving from the Catskills across the Mohawk Valley and into the Adirondacks on Friday morning. Steady rainfall will be occurring to the west, with bands of showers east of the low pressure center. The steadiest precipitation will be ending around midday or the early afternoon as the low starts to depart off to the northeast. As colder air works into the region, there may be a changeover from rain to snow across the western and central Adirondacks during the morning hours. A few inches are possible across the highest terrain before precip winds down by afternoon. Elsewhere, showers should be ending as the storm`s cold front moves through the region by either the late morning or early afternoon hours. Behind the front, temps will start falling for the afternoon hours. Most areas should be down into the 30s by the late afternoon or early evening hours on Friday. Winds will be switching to the west by afternoon and gusty at times. Despite being behind the front, skies will continue to stay fairly cloudy through the day. With the upper level trough overhead, it will continue to stay fairly cloudy into Friday night. A few breaks are possible late, especially for southern areas. However, it should be dry, aside from a few spotty snow showers or flurries over the Adirondacks. Temps will fall into the teens into the 20s by late Friday night. Drier, cooler and continued breezy conditions are expected on Saturday behind the departing storm system. Some breaks of sun are finally expected to occur and it should be precip-free for most of the area. Temps will be in the mid 20 to mid 30s and breezy north to northwest winds will still be in place. Temps will be falling into the teens on Sat night with clearing skies continued dry conditions with no precip. It will still be fairly breezy into the overnight hours thanks to storm offshore the eastern seaboard keeping a strong pressure gradient in place. Some gusts may still be in the 15 to 25 mph range at times. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The extended forecast opens with high pressure at the surface and mid and upper level ridging building in over NY and New England with fair and dry weather to close the weekend and for the opening of the week/the MLK holiday. Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly above normal with highs in the 20s to lower/mid 30s over the higher terrain, and 30s in the valleys moderating into the mid 30s to around 40F on Monday. Lows due to radiative cooling will be in the teens to lower 20s with single digits over the Adirondack Park. Monday Night into Tuesday...The deterministic medium range guidance/ensembles indicate the ridge break down with a northern stream disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes Region. The system may completely shear out and pass south of the region with a closed/cutoff low moving over northern Maine and New Brunswick. Clouds increase Mon night with a slight or low chance of snow/rain showers or possibly a light wintry mix on Tue, though confidence remains low for any ice potential. After lows in the upper teens and mid 20s, expect highs to moderate into the 30s to lower 40s. Tuesday night into Thursday...A weak cold front moves across the region Tuesday night with flat ridging building in for Wednesday. Isolated to scattered snow showers are possible northwest of the Capital Region Tuesday night before a brief period of fair weather mid week. The next system approaches from the Midwest and western/central Great Lakes Region based on the ensembles and medium range guidance bringing the next bout of precipitation. Based on the persistent track west of NY and New England, a light snow/mix to rain scenario is favored for THU with temps running above normal for mid-Jan by about 10 degrees to close the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Steady rain will continue expanding northeast across the TAF sites through 02Z/Fri. Rainfall intensity could be moderate to briefly heavy at times. Freezing rain could occur at KGFL through around 01Z/Fri. Periods of light to moderate rain are expected to continue overnight into Friday morning. Cigs are expected to be mainly MVFR/IFR overnight, with chances for LIFR increasing after 05Z/Fri. Vsbys will be mainly MVFR/IFR once rain begins, with some possibility for LIFR VSBYS developing after 05Z/Fri with areas of fog, especially at KGFL and KALB. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected Friday morning. Conditions could lift to MVFR at KPOU and KPSF in the wake of a warm front. Conditions should gradually improve to MVFR (mainly for Cigs) at all sites during Friday afternoon, with VFR possible at KPOU after 21Z/Fri. Winds will be mainly light from the north to northeast at less than 5 KT at KGFL and KALB overnight, while becoming southeast at KPOU and KPSF at 5-10 KT with some gusts possibly reaching up to 20 KT. Winds will become northwest in the wake of a cold front Friday afternoon, with speeds of 8-12 KT, along with possible gusts up to 20-25 KT. Low level wind shear will remain likely through this evening at KGFL/KALB, and much of the night at KPSF/KPOU, as surface winds remain light from the north/northeast while winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the southeast to 30-40 KT (surface winds will become southeast at KPSF and KPOU later this evening, however winds around 2000 FT AGL will remain strong from the southeast at around 40 KT). Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Martin Luther King Jr Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for NYZ033-042. MA...None. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for VTZ013-014. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula NEAR TERM...Frugis/Wasula SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...KL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
954 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Intensifying low pressure tracking across PA/NY into northern New England, will bring showers with locally heavy rain tonight and Friday morning to southern New England, along with mild and windy conditions. The trailing cold front sweeps across the region Friday, but then stalls just offshore Friday night. Temperatures trend more seasonable for the weekend. Surface low pressure tracks from the Carolina coast towards the bench mark for Sunday, which may produce scattered rain and snow showers. A warming trend begins Monday and continues through much of the week. Still plenty of uncertainty surrounding surface features and precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 10 PM Update... Moderate to heavy rain has overspread most of the region, with the heaviest rain centered across SE MA/RI heading towards Cape Cod. While most locations have warmed into the 40s to near 50F, cold air remains trapped between the high terrain of western CT and the CT River Valley. While this currently has no impact on P-Type, it is worth mentioning temps are running behind the current forecast in that region, thus, blended the forecast and the HRRR with this update. Winds are also behind the 8 ball, with gusts of 20-30 mph being reported along the south coast, Cape, and Islands (in contrast to the current forecast which calls for 30 KNOTS). Anticipating that while winds are a bit subdued at this hour, they will really start ramping up in the next 3 hours, thus, just interpolated obs into the forecast overnight to show the upward trend. A few rumbles of thunder/flashes of lightning were reported to our southwest, but current ENTLN 5 minute flash products show little to no activity at this hour. With that said, the greatest instability is currently centered over CT (with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE per current SPC Mesoanalysis), so it is possible that we have a few rumbles redevelop over the next few hours. 7pm Update: Widespread rain across SW New England as a warm front pushes north. Still, can not rule out a rumble of thunder as lightning has been detected over the waters south of Long Island. Using an in-house tool, that line of showers arrive across southern New England over the course of the next 30 to 90minutes. In addition, temperatures are also rising this evening, KWST is already at 47F! Those temperatures will continue to rise overnight. Did not make any changes to the near term forecast as the previous forecast remains on track. Please see the previous discussion below. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Highlights... * Temps rising thru the 50s overnight in the coastal plain * Showers with locally heavy rain after 8 pm * SSW winds gusting up to 40-50 mph late tonight Vigorous short wave moving across the TN valley late this afternoon will impact SNE weather with widespread showers, locally heavy rain and gusty SSW winds late tonight of 45-50 mph across southern RI into southeast MA. As this short wave advects northeast, good height falls at H7 & H85 yield a robust low level SSW jet of 60-70 kt, traversing the south coast after 06z. Impressive jet dynamics yields strong forcing for ascent and copious moisture advection, with PWATs 1+ inches. Thus, widespread showers after 00z or so, along with embedded downpours from time to time. Low prob of isolated thunder given marginal instability, as dew pts rise into the low 50s. Hi res guidance indicates very strong low level thermal advection with surface temps rising into the mid/upper 50s in the coastal plain toward morning, including the Boston to Providence corridor. This will ease the low level inversion and promote SSW winds in the warm sector to gusts up to 40-50 mph at times, especially in heavier downpours. There, we`ve hoisted a wind advisory for southern RI into southeast MA, including Cape Cod and the Islands. Areas of fog tonight, as warm front lifts slowly northward across the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 350 PM update... Friday... Highlights... * Very mild with highs in the mid/upper 50s * Downpours & gusty winds in the morning Showers with heavy downpours Fri morning, especially across RI and eastern MA, where a broken fine line of low top convection is possible. This will be in response to the nose of the low level jet moving across the area. SSW wind gusts up to 40-50 mph possible during the morning across south/central RI into southeast MA, especially in heavy downpours. Storm total rainfall of 0.75 to 1.5 inches is likely, with heaviest amounts on the nose of the low level jet across eastern CT/RI and southeast MA. Thus, could be a slow morning commute. Although, it will be mild with daybreak temps in the mid to upper 50s in the coastal plain, courtesy of low level SSW jet. Dry slot moves across the area Fri afternoon, thus a drying trend for the PM hours. Although remaining very mild, with frontal passage not until late in the day or evening. Record highs are in the low 60s, except 59 for BDL. Will probably fall just short, by nonetheless, very mild. See climate section below for records. Friday night... Dry, post frontal, but front stalls offshore as mid/upper trough evolves into a closed low along the Carolina coast, yielding SSW flow along the coast. Mainly dry weather, but could have some showers clip the outer Cape. Seasonably cold, with lows in the 20s inland, 30-35 along/near coast. Becoming blustery overnight, with increasing northerly winds. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 350 PM update... Highlights... * Temperatures trend more seasonable for the weekend. The greatest chance for sct`d rain or snow showers is Sunday, though confidence still remains low. * A warming trend begins Monday and continues through much of the week. Still plenty of uncertainty surrounding surface features and precipitation. Saturday through Sunday Night... Overall a drier period of weather, but there are chances for light precipitation as a broad area of low pressure meanders over the southern waters. The area that has the greatest chance for sct`d showers, snow/rain, would be areas east of I-95 with the most likely areas being southeast MA, Cape Cod, and the Islands. As for temperatures, the afternoon high for Saturday and Sunday are noticeably colder than the previous days, but are between 3F and 5F above the climatological norm. Latest 12z guidance continues to show a mid-level ridge over the North Atlantic Ocean, blocking a weak surface low pressure system off the Carolina coast. Also, blocking the moisture from completely exiting the New England area, trended more cloudy for Saturday afternoon as a result. Aloft, the amplified 500mb trough is over the eastern seaboard with shortwaves pivoting around it, which will help to produce a few rain/snow showers. The highest PWATs are located across southeast MA, Cape Cod, and the Islands, this would be the area with the greatest risk of a sct`d shower. The better chance for any rain/snow showers would arrive Sunday with a surface low tracking towards the NNE, in the vicinity of the bench mark, based of 12z ensembles. There is still a great deal of uncertainty, the biggest question that remains, how close does the low pass to southern New England? Given this period is four days away, we will look at this probabilistically. ECMWF ensembles have an area over Plymouth County with a 50-60 percent chance of exceeding at least 1.0" of snow, 30-40 percent chance of exceeding 3.0", and even a 10% chance of exceeding 6.0". As for the GFS ensembles, the area with the greatest chance of snow is Cape Cod and Martha`s Vineyard with a 40-50 percent chance of exceeding 1.0" and 20-30 percent chance of exceeding 3.0". It`s worth noting that these probabilities have increased slightly since the 06z run. In addition, temperature are marginal, sounding like a broken record over here. For example, looking at a forecast sounding for KPYM, there is a warm nose from 900mb to 700mb, with an above 0C layer from 850mb to 750mb. As you can imagine, this part of the forecast is not one to lock in. You are going to want to come back and check the latest over the coming days. For this forecast, kept chance -SN and -RA in an area along I-95 and points east, Cape Ann, Boston Metro, Providence Metro, Cape Cod, and the Island. Early next week: Forecast confidence diminishes into early next week. There is some agreement in high pressure being in place, allowing for a dry day on Monday. Beyond that, models are not in great agreement with a potentially retrograding surface low over the Gulf of Maine. Because of how low confidence is during this period, did not spend too much time nitpicking. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z update... After 00z...high confidence on trends, lower on precise timing & exact details. Increasing SSW winds tonight, with strongest winds across RI and eastern MA, with gusts up to 45 kt from 05z-12z Fri. IFR/LIFR inland, MVFR/VFR along the coast. Showers all terminals, with heavy rain at times. Friday...high confidence, lower on precise timing & exact details. IFR/MVFR in showers, with locally heavy rain in the morning along with strong SSW winds across coastal RI and southeast MA until about noon, with gusts up to 45 kt. Trending drier Friday afternoon, and trending toward VFR for the evening push. Friday night...high confidence. VFR cloud bases and dry, however a round of showers possible across Cape Cod and the Islands. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF trends, lower in exact details and precise timing. LLWS 02z-12z Fri with low level SSW jet of 50-60 kt at 3 kft moving across southeast MA. We will have to watch potential broken line of heavy rain showers with gusty winds 07z-14z Fri. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF trends, lower in exact details and precise timing. Marginal LLWS 04z-11z as low level SSW jet tracks across coastal CT/RI/southeast MA. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Sunday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHSN, chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Martin Luther King Jr Day through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance FZRA. Wednesday: Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z update... Tonight...intensifying low pressure moves from PA/NY into northern New England. SE winds this evening, becoming SSW after midnight and increasing to 25-35 kt. Vsby limited in showers and fog, with locally heavy rain. Friday...Low pressure moves across northern New England, with strong SSW winds 25-35 kt continuing in the morning, then easing and shifting to the SW. Showers and fog will limit vsby, but improving with the wind shift. Heavy showers with locally stronger winds possible in the morning. Friday night...cold front enters the waters in the evening, then stalls offshore. Increasing north winds develop. Showers offshore, dry near shore. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Sunday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of snow showers. Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Martin Luther King Jr Day: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for January 13th: BOS: 63F - 1932 ORH: 62F - 1932 PVD: 63F - 2018 BDL: 59F - 2018 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EST Friday for MAZ017>024. RI...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EST Friday for RIZ002-004>008. MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 AM to noon EST Friday for ANZ230. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251- 254>256. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ236. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Gaucher NEAR TERM...Nocera/Gaucher/KS SHORT TERM...Nocera LONG TERM...Gaucher AVIATION...Nocera/Gaucher MARINE...Nocera/Gaucher CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
919 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will overspread central Pennsylvania by this evening and continue tonight. Rain will change to snow over the northern and western Alleghenies on Friday with a minor accumulation expected through Friday night. Snow showers will end early Saturday. Mild temperatures today and tonight will trend colder and bottom out near seasonal averages during the first part of the weekend before resuming a warmer-than-normal trend into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Regional radar at 02Z shows the steadiest rain has shifted north of Pa associated with nose of low level jet and best warm advection. However, additional showers are still to come as surface low, located near KPIT at 02Z, and trailing cold front track across the state tonight. MRMS multisensor qpe through 01Z ranges from around 0.66 inches over the western counties to just a few hundredths of an inch from Harrisburg southeastward. The focus for the additional rain overnight should be over the southeast counties associated with increasing forcing ahead of a potent shortwave lifting north across the Mid Atlantic late tonight. A thunderstorm is even possible later tonight across the southeast part of the forecast area, where the latest RAP indicates the presence of some minimal capes ahead of approaching cold front. Sfc cold front will sweep west to east late tonight through the predawn hours Friday. Colder air behind the front will drop air temps to around the freezing mark and change rain to snow with a coating possible over the western and northern Alleghenies by daybreak. Winds will shift to the west and increase into Friday morning with gusts up to 25-35 mph. Low temp gradient from west to east will be about 15-20 degrees with minTs around 30 along the western mtns to around 45-50F from MDT and points to the SE. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Breezy and noticeably colder over western PA to end the week with highs falling about 10F from today and gusty wind adding to the chill. A tight pressure gradient and passage of a strong isallobaric couplet suggests winds will ramp up quickly around dawn. Bukfit soundings support increasing NBM winds a bit, with frequent gusts to around 25kts anticipated Friday. Upper low digs and cuts off over NC/VA by tomorrow night, which should result in a somewhat prolonged duration of wrap around/cold conveyor and lake+terrain enhanced snow to bring T-3" of accum to the western mtns - with a local bullseye most likely in favored ridgetops and summits in the Laurel Highlands. Conditions will dry out downwind of the Allegheny Front thanks to downslope westerly flow. MinT Friday night will trend 10-20F colder night/night with readings in the 20-30F range. Despite the fairly robust 24hr deltaT, lows will still be +5-10F above climo as we approach the climatological coldest part of the winter season. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fair and seasonable conditions appear likely Saturday, as high pressure ridging builds into the region, causing any lingering snow showers over the western mountains to taper off. The pressure gradient remains fairly tight, so expect it to be breezy. Ensemble plumes support gusts to around 30 mph. There is high confidence of fair and progressively milder conditions Sunday and Monday, as upper level ridging builds over the region and surface high passes off the east coast. The latest ECENS and GEFS both track a surface low west of Pa Monday night into Tuesday, bringing mild conditions with a bit of light rain. Some guidance indicates there could be enough cold air for mixed precip at the onset, but high pressure southeast of Pa is not favorable for holding onto cold air. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement into the middle of next week, indicating a brief period of fair weather Tuesday night into Wednesday associated with upper level ridging. Focus then turns to next southern stream shortwave and associated surface low, which is progged to track west of Pa and could potentially spread rain into the area Wednesday night and Thursday. The southern branch of the jet will remain dominant into next week, flooding the area with mild weather. Ensemble 2m temp plumes suggest highs should be 10-15 degrees above average and lows 10-20 above average. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... First modification to 00Z TAF cycle was to include several hours (west) and up to 8 hours east, of LLWS as the core of a south-swrly LLJ of 60KT within the 2-4 KFT AGL layer shifts east across the region preceding a cold frontal passage. A strong gradient in vertical speed/direction will exist at the base of this wind core between 1-2 kft AGL. This LLWS will especially impact FAP to airfields as cigs and ocnl vsbys will be in the IFR range from stratus, rain and fog. Otherwise, widespread LIFR-IFR conditions in light-moderate rain through much of the night will improve to MVFR east of the mtns during the day Friday. This trend will occur following the passage of a cold front and gusty wind shift to 270-300 degrees. Snow and upslope flow beginning between 07-08Z Friday at KBFD and KJST should maintain IFR over the western TAFs into Friday night while conditions eventually trend toward VFR in the southeast terminals by Saturday morning. Outlook... Sat...Continued breezy, with snow showers fading across the wrn airspace. Wind gusts from 290-330 20-30kts. Sun...MVFR cigs possible early west, otherwise VFR/no sig wx. Mon...VFR. Rain possible late Monday night western 1/3. Tue...Rain likely western 1/2. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Lambert/Steinbugl
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
557 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 ...updated aviation weather section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 18z observations are showing a large longwave trough dipping all the way to Texas with the low pressure center near the Missouri boot heel. At the surface a 1032 mb high is centered from South Dakota to Texas and has pretty much cleared the area of any cloud cover and will continue to reduce the winds towards this evening. For tonight the main highlight in the forecast is the fog and low cloud potential mainly from Dodge City to Hays towards sunrise. HRRR and RAP skew-t models are showing the boundary layer saturating around 3-4 am with light winds at the surface. HREF probabilities this morning were hinting at areas of fog developing starting around the I-70 corridor and then expanding southward towards morning. There will be a subtle wind shift line towards morning with wind switching to the west that should keep most areas west of highway 283 free of low clouds and fog. With the mainly clear skies outside of the fog and low wind speeds we should have good radiational cooling as lows fall into the teens. Friday the upper level winds will transition from the trough to a ridge axis which will be centered over the Rockies by midday. This will allow winds to switch to the south to southwest in the boundary layer and 850 mb temps should warm back to 4-6(C). Once the fog and low clouds erode we should have plenty of sunshine and highs will range from the 40s in the east where the clouds will hang on the longest to the upper 50s in the west where they should have all day sun. Friday night should be more mild as the ridge axis moves firmly into western Kansas and winds will be south to southwest in the boundary layer. With stronger winds this should keep temperatures up as lows fall into the upper 20s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 201 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Main messaging of the long term will be a couple of storm systems to highlight the first being for Sunday night and the second will be on Wednesday. Saturday the ridge axis will slide east and the next storm system should reach onshore leading to a trough in the desert southwest. Winds at the surface should increase out of the southwest with a lee side trough and surface low developing in Colorado. With the southwest winds and generally sunny skies highs should reach into the upper 50s to lower 60s. For Sunday night the long term models and ensembles are in fairly good agreement that the main axis of the trough will be centered in western Kansas with the main forcing and surface low tracking through northwest Kansas. The surface low will deepen to around 994 mb by Monday morning in northeast Kansas and this should push a cold front through the region. Winds will increase behind the front by sunrise Monday. Overall precip chances look slim as there could be a small mesoscale fgen band behind the front but the more robust moisture will be further east. NBM output gave us basically less than 15% POPs and I was fine with that idea. The next storm system of interest looks to be next Wednesday with all sorts of possibilities from the long term models and ensembles. The main track would develop a closed low somewhere from southern Colorado through northern New Mexico by early Wednesday morning and then track east/northeast into central Kansas by Wednesday night. GFS has the most northern track, Euro has a little further south, and the Canadian has the farthest south track. As a result Canadian QPF output has the most while the Euro and GFS also give us some healthy amounts of QPF. Overall it is still too far out to nail anything down but it is a glimmer of hope we could be seeing some desperately needed moisture. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 554 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 There is an area of weak surface convergence roughly along the highway 283 corridor, toward 12z and beyond, where the HREF and HRRR hint at some radiational fog development. There is not a lot of confidence in this and it may not be all that widespread however we have included some IFR fog in the TAFS for DDC/HYS. Other than that, the winds will remain light and variable over the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 19 52 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 19 53 26 59 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 21 57 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 20 57 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 16 46 26 55 / 0 0 0 0 P28 19 46 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Tatro AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
950 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 945 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 We`re watching some light precipitation over nw Lower dropping south over the lake. Short range models keep this pcpn over the lake tonight. However, the HRRR remains an outlier and gives a little pcpn around 09z over the US-131 corridor. Not too confident in this happening, although if it did, we may see light freezing drizzle out of it, considering the dry DGZ. We`re going to maintain very light PoPs tonight for that possibility. Otherwise, no changes to the forecast. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 204 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 - Risk for flurries/freezing drizzle tonight Low level moisture is shown to increase this evening as the northerly flow strengthens on the backside of the departing storm. Light precipitation has developed over Northern Lower MI based off of radar loops. Surface temperatures were mostly in the mid 32 to 35 degree range. Northerly flow is slightly downslope for much of our CWA and the temperature would need to drop off a few degrees for any impacts. The 18z HRRR supports the weakening trend to the area of precipitation dropping down from the north this afternoon. This model run then redevelops light precipitation later tonight with it mainly in the form of light snow showers...with the cloud depth just reaching into the DGZ. We will keep the POPs low for tonight...and feature mainly light snow showers as the temperature falls below freezing. Close monitoring will be needed this evening. - Dry Weather Saturday into Sunday High pressure ridges in from the west on Saturday and east of the region Sunday. Subsidence associated with the passage of this system will act to limit the risk for any precipitation. Moisture profiles Saturday show the atmosphere dry through a deep layer. On Sunday though...upper level moisture will be on the increase as the ridge pulls east of MI. The southerly winds on Sunday will start to advect some milder air in from the south. - Rain arrives for Monday...locally heavy Deep warm and moist air advection occurs on Monday with the nose of a 30 to 40 knot LLJ along the MI/IN border. PWAT values climb to near an inch Monday. Aloft the left front quadrant of a 250 mb jet crosses this deep upward lift. Combining all this supports large area of rain to move into the CWA Monday lasting into Monday night. There is even some weakness in the stability showing up Monday evening so the risk for a storm or two is not zero. - Another storm is progged for Thursday Models are showing this next storm to be stronger than the Monday storm. The surface pattern of high pressure over Ontario and low pressure approaching from Illinois is favorable for at least a period of freezing rain/wintry mix. This system will feature a tight thermal gradient so its track will be important for temperatures and associated precipitation types. Ensemble forecasts still support the region getting into the warm that would favor a transition to rain Thursday. Trends in the model track show a further north track of the storm. This would favor the warm sector making it into the CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 615 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Latest nephanalysis shows MVFR cigs across much of the Upper Midwest. A deep upper trough is moving across the region and cigs will increase late in the period once the trough axis moves across the state. We`re still watching for the potential of freezing drizzle tonight. Best timeframe to see it would be midnight to 6 AM....if it were to occur. One model does show quite a bit of lift in the cloud layer and given the dry dendritic growth zone, this would likely fall as freezing drizzle. However, other models don`t show much of any lift. Thus, there`s a lot of uncertainty here and didn`t feel confident enough to put it in the TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 204 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 The mixing heights will deepen tonight as the pressure gradient tightens up. The winds at 925/850 mb are shown to increase to over 30 knots tonight. With the deeper mixing...we will likely see a high end SCA or low end Gale event over the nearshore waters. The winds will gradually decrease as we go through the day on Friday. After a break in the hazardous conditions Saturday...the winds will increase out of the south on Sunday as the next wave of low pressure moves in. Forecast values up around 925/850 mb approach 40 knots in the warm air advection pattern. Headlines will likely be needed then. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for LMZ844-848-849. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for LMZ845>847. && $$ UPDATE...04 DISCUSSION...MJS AVIATION...04 MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
720 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 719 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Overall, the forecast remains on track, but did introduce PoPs into far inland SE GA as weakening showers push across the area ahead of the main squall. Dry, stable airmass in place will only slowly moisten as the line of storms approaches with marginal instability developing just ahead of the line. This should act to weaken the line as it pushes into the far northwestern counties around 8pm, however, a strong low level jet sliding eastward will lead to strong lower shear, around 45-50 kts. So, the wind threat is still the primary concern with gusts 45-65 mph possible, but a non-zero isolated tornado threat exists for the far northwestern zones of SE GA through around 10pm before the threat wanes. The higher end gusts will be more likely with bowing segments along the line between 8p- midnight. With the dry airmass over the FL peninsula today, it will be tough for the line to maintain intensity and should weaken into a broken line of embedded storms as it moves southeast along and across the I- 10 corridor around midnight, as the HRRR depicts fairly well. Despite weakening, a strong gust front 40-50 mph is possible as the convection moves into and through the Jacksonville metro. Strong forcing along the line will promote convection through the entire night with the line exiting to the south and into the Atlantic around dawn. Winds and trailing cloud cover will keep lows from feeling the full effect of the post-frontal cold air advection tonight, with readings spanning the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 422 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Strong to severe storms continue across portions of the southeast states from nrn GA to central AL and southeast LA. Locally, warm southerly flow continues with temps in the 70s to near 80, with a weak Atlantic sea breeze at the coast keeping our local beaches much cooler around the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some moisture is creeping into our west zones with additional high clouds and a low level cumulus field. The deeper mixing is resulting in a few gusts of about 30 mph, mainly inland southeast GA at this time. VWP from KVAX shows 25-40 kt at about 1-2 kft and little directional shear. Tonight, as the front nears the area, a narrow corridor of instability develops but still remains fairly low with surface based CAPE of about 200-600 J/kg. Tallahassee sounding at 18z reveals a lot of dry aloft but shear of 45-50 kt. Based on guidance from the HRRR, the convection is forecast to be in a broken line, with some additional convection out ahead of it. The time frame is from about 8-9 PM entering our northwest zones of southeast GA, to the JAX metro area around 1-2 AM, and then southeast zones about 3-5 AM. Given the instability and the shear values, there is potential for strong to severe wind gusts of 45-60 mph as the convection moves in, with the threat over most of southeast GA and also the Suwannee Valley area. Tornado potential is much lower than the wind threat, and is mainly located northwest of a line from Jesup GA to Statenville GA, with some meso-vortices possible in the line. Still some potential for strong gusty winds over the reminder of the forecast area late tonight given the pressure perturbation of the front and remaining convection that pushes through, with estimated gusts of up to 35-45 mph. Precip amounts will be fairly low, less than 2/3rds of an inch. Temps will drop toward about 48-55 deg toward early morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 422 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Strong cold front will be moving through the southeast part of the forecast area Friday morning, and push east of the area by about noon -1 PM. Ongoing convection expected early Friday along and ahead of the front, with gusty winds and periods of brief moderate to heavy rainfall. Strong cold advection will continue in the wake of the front, with strong troughing aloft digging down over the southeast US, with the 500 mb height contour down to 5400 meters over parts of nrn GA. Spokes of vorticity will rotate through the trough and allow for lingering low level moisture to continue. Given the cold advection pattern, temps will be fairly steady, and drop more noticeably by mid to late afternoon as the sun angle lowers. Brisk northwest flow near 15-25 mph expected. For some areas, the high temperature may be in the morning. Highs are forecast in the mid 50s northwest zones to lower 60s southeast zones. Friday night. strong cold advection continues with still a good chance of partly cloudy skies owing to moisture rotating on the back side of the mid/upper level trough which should be pushing offshore by sunrise Saturday. Lows are forecast to bottom out mainly in the mid 30s, with a wind of about 10-15 mph into the night. This will support a short window of possible wind chill advisory (at or below 25) for northeast FL, with apparent/wind chill in the 20s. Saturday, sfc high pressure system moves a bit closer to the forecast area during the the lower to mid MS valley around 1029 MB. The model progs show diminishing low level moisture so increasing sunshine expected. Despite more sun, cold advection continues with a brisk northwest wind. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s anticipated at this time, which is some 10-15 deg below normal. Saturday night, the pressure gradient in the area loosens further as the high pressure system moves to the AL area by late night. Winds will diminish further overnight to about 5 mph or less. Some breezier wind is possible near 5-10 mph at the coastal areas due to enhanced drainage flow from the high pressure and the cold airmass. With skies now clear by this time everywhere, a light freeze is anticipated inland areas in the upper 20s to about 30 deg. Closer to the coast/I-95 areas, the low temps may be just above freezing around 33-37 due to the drainage flow. Having said that, winds could drop in sheltered areas in these areas to realize a brief freeze. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 422 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 A shortwave ridge will move over the region Sun-Mon in the wake of the trough from the cold snap. Sfc high pressure will also move across the region, with some return flow developing late Monday as the high begins to shift offshore to the southeast. As the ridge aloft moves out, another shortwave trough approaches and moves across our nrn zones Monday night into Tuesday but much of the energy is north of the area. A frontal boundary associated with the weak shortwave trough begins to stall across parts of central GA and SC. The shortwave system moves out of the region Tuesday afternoon and evening and ridging builds back over the area as a stronger shortwave trough moves in over the Plains/central U.S. Wed-Thu time frame. Any lingering front over central GA pushes back north by early Wed night. Sunday...After a frosty start, sfc high pressure and quiet weather expected with below normal temp again with highs about 55-60 degs. Sunday night, clear skies and calm winds will lead to quick drop in temps into the evening hours, with lows overnight in the lower to mid 30s. A freeze and frost looks probable in a good part of the area. Monday...Some increase in high clouds expected with temps moderating closer to normal in the 60s, after the cold morning. More mild lows Monday night in the 40s, with a few upper 30s possible inland. Tuesday/Wednesday...the return flow and lingering moisture from the shortwave will allow for partly cloudy skies at times. There may be enough moisture for a few showers across the north zones due to the nearby frontal system to our north and weak forcing aloft. Otherwise, more mild temps with highs in the lower/middle 70s on Tuesday and into the mid/upper 70s on Wednesday as southwest flow increases. The next frontal system approaches the region on Thursday so we introduced a chance of showers with this system though uncertainty is high given some model discrepancy at this time frame. Temps continue warm ahead of the front in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 VFR conditions will continue with predominant southwesterly winds between 6-12 kts through around midnight before a line of moderate to strong, but generally weakening, showers and embedded storms will quickly push southeastward through the regional airfields. Expect line to reach SSI first (near 05z) and then the JAX Metro and GNV around 07z, and lastly SGJ around 08z. This line will bring the potential for strong wind gusts in excess of 35 kts along with a drop in vsby to at least MVFR and possibly LIFR in stronger convection for about an hour or so as it passes. This line will move quickly through each terminal entering and exiting within an hour window with trailing showers likely behind the primary front. Winds will shift WNW and trend northwesterly in the wake of the cold front driving the storms. High confidence in wake low stratus between 2-3 kft to prevail through most of the day Friday with NW gusts 25-30 kts during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 422 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 There were a few changes in the updated marine forecast but generally have SCA headline starting tonight offshore water and have the SCEC headline nearshore. The SCA is expanded to the nearshore waters on Friday as the strong offshore flow will be in full force, with potential for gale force gusts going into Friday night. With collaboration with neighboring office, opted to not go with gale watch due to somewhat marginal nature of the gale force wind gusts. SCA continues into Saturday but ends in all waters Sunday morning after ~11Z, as high pressure system moves in from the west. Rip Current Risk: Surf near 2 ft and winds are near parallel or slightly southeast this aftn, resulting in a low risk. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 422 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 South-southwest surface and transport winds will remain breezy through sunset, which will result in high daytime dispersion values rest of today. Minimim relative humidity values just above 25 percent today but mainly 28-35 percent range rest of the afternoon across inland northeast FL to around Waycross and Jesup, GA. Elevated fire weather conditions continue across part of the area rest of the aftn. Rainfall amounts with the front tonight expected to be under 2/3rds of an inch. Breezy southwest then west surface and transport winds overnight will shift to northwest by sunrise. Gusty northwesterly surface and transport winds will prevail on Friday, creating good to marginally high dispersion values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 49 56 33 51 / 100 0 0 0 SSI 53 61 37 51 / 100 0 0 0 JAX 52 61 34 52 / 100 10 0 0 SGJ 54 63 36 51 / 90 40 0 0 GNV 52 61 33 53 / 100 20 0 0 OCF 54 62 34 53 / 90 30 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 9 PM EST Saturday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1019 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Dry and pleasant conditions are in place across the area this evening as temperatures fall into the 60s. A strong cold front is now draped across AL/GA/north FL as rain showers and thunderstorms continue to progress southeastward ahead of the front. The latest RAP analysis depicts a tightening pressure gradient over north- central Florida tonight, and surface winds are expected to increase in response early Friday morning. PW values from the 23z XMR sounding of 0.74" are in line with the latest model guidance, which brings a band of drier air across the Florida Peninsula through the early morning hours, ahead of the front. Moisture quickly increases along the cold front as it pushes into east central Florida, with a narrow ribbon of 1.4" to 1.6" PW suggested by CAMs. Rain chances increase after 3 AM for locations along and north of Interstate 4, followed by the Orlando Metro/Space Coast after 5 AM, and the Treasure Coast/Lake Okeechobee region after 7 AM. Sufficient frontogenetic forcing will allow showers to persist as the front moves south through the area. Model soundings are lackluster prior to 9 AM with regard to instability, but a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out among any organized activity through mid morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1015 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 Tonight (modified previous)...Boating conds gradually deteriorate as southwest winds increase near 20-25 knots across the Volusia/Brevard offshore waters after midnight with 15-20 knots across the south. Seas will build up to 6 ft well offshore Volusia late tonight but remain suppressed 2-3 ft near the coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 VFR thru 07z-08z expected. SW winds increasing, turning WSW along and behind a strong cold front after 12z. TEMPO now included for most sites except the Treasure Coast for -SHRA and MVFR CIGs. A few isolated TS cannot be ruled out during the frontal passage after 14z, mainly for sites south of MCO. TEMPO may be needed in future TAFs for Treasure Coast sites. Gusty WNW winds behind the front may reach 20-25 kts during the afternoon. VFR gradually resumes toward the end of the TAF period into Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 58 65 38 54 / 60 60 0 0 MCO 57 68 39 55 / 30 70 0 0 MLB 57 71 40 56 / 0 70 0 0 VRB 56 73 40 57 / 0 70 0 0 LEE 57 65 37 53 / 70 50 0 0 SFB 58 67 38 53 / 50 70 0 0 ORL 59 66 39 54 / 40 70 0 0 FPR 57 74 41 57 / 0 70 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ550-552. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 PM EST Sunday for AMZ555. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for AMZ570-572. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM EST Sunday for AMZ575. && $$ Schaper/Sedlock
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
710 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 234 PM EST THU JAN 12 2023 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis mid-level troffing extending from near James Bay across far northern Lake Superior to northern MN. Deep moisture, weak synoptic forcing and 850mb temps nearing -10C per latest RAP analysis are supporting some light lake enhanced snow today across western into n central Upper MI. There have been a few bands of briefly heavier snow streaming into Marquette County. While there was some sun in Luce County earlier today thanks to downsloping off of the Canadian Shield breaking up clouds, abundant cloud cover has otherwise dominated once again. Current temps are in the 30s F, but temps have slipped into the upper 20s F in portions of nw Upper MI. Conditions should be fairly steady state into the evening under deep moisture and weak forcing as mid-level trof axis drops s. Since 850mb temps may fall another degree or two C, lake enhanced snow should expand/increase a bit before a transition to pure LES. DGZ should also slip into the upper portion of the lake induced convective layer, but that will occur as deeper moisture begins to depart with passage of mid-level trof. Overnight, moisture depth ends up at 3-5kft, lowest w. As a result, not expecting much in the way of snow accumulation tonight. Maybe an inch or 2, greatest in the high terrain where upsloping northerly winds add a boost. Under continued cloud cover, temps should only fall to the mid teens to mid 20s F. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 328 PM EST THU JAN 12 2023 Key Messages: -Light lake effect lingers Friday -Quiet weather for weekend -Next precip maker Monday/Tuesday, potentially messy By 12Z Friday, a ridge will be building in overhead. This will keep in light northerly flow, backing to the northwest and eventually west/southwest into Friday evening. A chance for light lake effect flurries/light snow showers lingers mainly in the northerly flow snowbelts, but our airmass is turning increasingly drier. Thus, any accumulations will be light, with more breaks in the clouds across much of the area apart from lingering lake clouds closer to Superior. Saturday stays dry, and temperatures to come in slightly warmer given increasing heights, potentially a few more breaks in the clouds (at least for the first part of the day), and a shift over to southwest flow. The ridge really starts to shift eastward into Sunday, and increasing midlevel southwest flow will touch off better WAA. We may start to see high-level clouds streaming into the area Sunday as a trough and associated surface low over the southern plains starts to track northeast into the Midwest. Into Monday, the deepening low pressure system continues to move into the Midwest, with a surge of WAA and a good amount of moisture (PWATs increase well above normal, with a potential for us to also tap into some Gulf moisture amid robust southerly flow). This should bring in a round of synoptically forced precipitation by sunrise. So far, our best chances are over the eastern UP, with good agreement amongst the latest guidance for the system to track from central, or possibly northern WI into the LP. Some lake enhancement upwind of Lake Michigan may also lead to locally higher precipitation chances. A challenge with Monday/Mon night will be determining just how far northward this system will make it before exiting to our east into Tuesday. Some of the guidance does take this a little more northward into WI than others. This will have a big impact on precip type, as a more southerly track would result in more snow, and a more northerly track better chances for rain or a wintry mix. Current forecasts favor a warmer scenario. Model soundings across much of the UP Monday afternoon show a nearly isothermal layer right around the freezing point from the surface up to around 5kft. With high temperatures in the mid/upper 30s, this could point to a period of mainly rain or a rain/snow mix. Will not rule out some pockets of freezing rain in the chilliest spots. Precipitation starts to taper off overnight into early Tuesday as a weak cold front moves through and a ridge starts to build in. Amid northwest flow, lingering lake effect flurries and snow showers are possible, but this should be fairly light with temperatures aloft not turning particularly chilly and drier air working in. Tuesday night into Wednesday turns dry, but yet another Southern Plains trough/surface low will start to move in Thursday. This takes a similar track to the Mon/Tue system, though shifted slightly to the south, and guidance is showing this to be rather deeper than the previous system. Thus, we have a potential for a more significant precipitation event, but precip type and accumulations will remain highly sensitive to the track of the system. Otherwise, temperatures continue to run warm the rest of the forecast period with ensembles showing 850mb temperatures well above normal. Friday continues to look the closest to "normal" with temperatures peaking in the 20s Friday afternoon before falling back into the teens and single digits overnight (depending on the level of clearing). Afternoon highs climb into the 30s Saturday and Sunday, and may come in well into the mid and upper 30s the remainder of the week. Lows the rest of the forecast period range generally in the 20s to lower 30s. After this warm spell, several ensemble runs are bringing negative temperature and 500mb height anomalies for the last week of January, so there may be hope for cooler air ahead! && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 709 PM EST THU JAN 12 2023 Periods of lake effect snow showers will persist tonight in the upslope northerly winds and colder air. The inconsistency of the snow showers will result in some fluctuation in flight categories, but IFR will be the most prevalent at SAW/IWD with periods of LIFR. CMX, however, is expected to be around MVFR/IFR into tonight before visibilities deteriorate to IFR/LIFR early tomorrow morning. Northerly winds will be strong at CMX and SAW with sustained speeds as high as 18 to 20 kts, gusting to 25 kts. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 328 PM EST THU JAN 12 2023 Northerly winds continue to gust to around 25 to 30kts especially across the central portions of Superior this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, across the western portions of the lake, wind gusts around 20 to 25kts fall back below 20kts overnight. Winds fall back below 20kts across the rest of the lake throughout the day Friday, and remain below 20 knots until Saturday night. Southerly gusts will then pick up to 20 to 25 knots over the east half of the lake. Sunday, southerly gusts may occasionally reach 25 to 30 knots, but decrease to 20 to 25kts Sunday night before finally falling back below 20kts Monday evening. Winds remain below 20kts through Tuesday morning before increasing to 20 to 25kts into Tuesday evening. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...LC AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...LC