Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/06/23

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
520 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 The weather remains clear and quiet this evening under high pressure. Watching an area of stratus across central ND that may move south through the night. No major changes are planned to the current forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night) Issued at 144 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 Quiet overall in the short term with the main concern being fog possible again overnight into early Friday morning. Starting out with the synoptic setup, Rap and ECMWF/GFS ensembles agree on the timing and placement of a 500mb ridge over the Rockies and a shortwave over ND/MN border around 00Z Friday. This ridge moves in overhead Friday with more of a split flow as the central parts of the Midwest will see a slight troughing/shortwave pattern overhead Friday afternoon and pushing east Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will keep conditons quiet with light winds through early Saturday before pushing off to the east. Otherwise, HREF indicates some passing mid/high clouds as we head into this evening and into the overnight. With the snow covered ground, "warmer" air, and light winds, we continue the trend of patchy/areas of fog possible again overnight into early Friday. RAP/NAM Bufkit soundings across the CWA indicate the low level moisture(Sfc-900mb) with short term hi-res models indicating a lowering of visibility during this time. As what the previous discussion mentioned, a lot of these models and soundings have been overdoing the fog potential the past few mornings. It has been noted that the low level moisture has resided in the dendritic growth zone near the surface. This results in the formation of more ice crystals and that could be the reason why we have not seen much more widespread fog. Also, just above the saturated lower levels, is much drier air (due to the high). The soundings, however, for the overnight show a deeper layer of low level moisture into Friday morning than the past few nights. I went ahead and did a combo of ConsShort/HRRR/Rap from 0Z through Friday to make up for this in the visibility grids. This will need to be monitored by the next shift and if any changes need to be made. 925mb temps overnight will range from -4 to -11C as these winds will also be out of the northwest/light and variable. This will put our overnight lows ranging from -2 to the single digits. Otherwise temps for Friday will range in the teens and lower 20s with similar overnight temps for Friday night into Saturday morning. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 144 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 Overall, the flow pattern aloft over this CWA from Saturday through next Thursday could be described as upper level ridge-dominated. Ridging aloft will be in place Saturday and Sunday before being suppressed some heading into Monday. But, the ridge aloft is currently progged to pump back up heading into the middle of next week. The low level thermal advection pattern right now for the out periods appears to support warmth (perhaps a bit warmer than climo normal) over the weekend into early next week. There should be a cold fropa happening at some point early next week (model timing is different amongst the 3 primary GSM`s presently), which will cycle in some low level CAA and probably set temperatures back down closer to climo normal for a few days, per the GFS/EC 850hpa temp anomalies off the Ens S.A. table. By the end of the period, more split flow jet energy aloft is seen in the models, so expect lots of changes to timing/coverage of the PoPs that are in the forecast late in the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will continue this evening. IFR fog and/or stratus may develop after midnight across the region but should clear by late morning/early afternoon. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM...Dorn AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
913 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track southeast of the region overnight, then move east of Nova Scotia Friday. A cold front approaches from the northwest Friday night, then crosses the area Saturday. High pressure builds across the area Sunday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 9:13 PM Update: Cloudy the remainder of the night with a little light snow or flurries at times. No recent reports of any lingering freezing drizzle Downeast. Updated to account for the current and expected conditions the remainder of the night. Did drop the small craft advisory for the intra-coastal waters with this update. Previous discussion: A low pressure system is currently pulling eastward away from the area. Accumulating snow with this system has largely ended from the Central Highlands southward. Thus, the Winter Weather Advisory has been dropped for areas that were under one. However, due to low-levels remaining moist and drier air in the upper levels, patchy freezing drizzle has been reported, especially near Bangor. The threat of freezing drizzle is expected to continue through late this evening, so have issued a Special Weather Statement for the Central Highlands and Southeast Aroostook County on southward to cover the threat. The freezing drizzle should end later tonight as drier low-level air works in. Across Northern Aroostook County, light snow and snow showers are falling at this time. However, dry air has kept snowfall accumulations down over most of that area. High resolution guidance such as the HRRR and HREF show a high likelihood of snow showers continuing across Northern Aroostook through this evening, so kept likely pops through that time. Total accumulations of an inch or two of snow are possible by the time the snow showers taper off late tonight. Temperatures will remain relatively steady tonight. An upper-level trough axis is then forecast to move across the area on Friday. This will spawn a low pressure system near Southern New England. Most of the precipitation with this system will remain south of the area. However, most models do show a period of light snow beginning Friday afternoon. It will not be a large storm, but snow accumulations around an inch are possible in many spots. High temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 20s to near 30 in the North and the Central Highlands, with lower 30s south of there. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure exits southeast of Nova Scotia Friday night while an upper level disturbance crosses the region. Expect mostly cloudy skies across the region Friday night. Will also have a chance of snow showers across northern areas. Across Downeast areas, will have a chance of snow showers early with a slight chance of snow showers late. A cold front will cross the region Saturday along with another upper level disturbance. Skies will remain mostly cloudy along with a chance of snow showers north, slight chance Downeast. High pressure will build east toward the region Saturday night. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance/chance of snow showers early Saturday night, then partly cloudy late. High pressure will bring mostly/partly sunny skies Sunday. Temperatures will be at above normal levels in advance of the cold front Saturday. Expect below normal level temperatures Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will cross the region Sunday night with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies. A warm front lifts north of Maine Monday with partly cloudy skies. A cold front/possible low should then begin to approach from the west later Tuesday. Expect mostly cloudy skies north, partly/mostly cloudy Downeast, Tuesday. The low/cold front should cross the region Wednesday. Precipitation Wednesday should generally be in the form of snow, possibly mixed with rain Downeast. Precipitation chances/amounts will be dependent on the eventual strength/organization of the system. Uncertainty exists Thursday regarding a potential low deepening east of the Maritimes which could possibly wrap snow back toward the forecast area. Above normal level temperatures are expected Monday through Wednesday, with near normal level temperatures Thursday. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR ceiling at KFVE and KCAR as of 9 PM with MVFR at KPQI and KHUL. The ceilings will be trending down to IFR to low end MVFR with IFR/MVFR Vsby at times in light snow. IFR to low end MVFR at KBGR and KBHB overnight. E-NE winds 5-10 KT tonight all terminals. Conditions improving to MVFR all terminals Fri AM. Some IFR possible again Fri PM with -SN, especially south. Light E-NE winds all terminals. SHORT TERM: Friday night...MVFR/IFR. A chance of snow showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Saturday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A chance of snow showers north, slight chance Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/northwest 10 to 15 knots. Saturday night...VFR/MVFR with occasional IFR early, then VFR. A slight chance/chance of snow showers early. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Sunday through Sunday night...VFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming variable 5 to 10 knots Sunday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest Sunday night. Monday...VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots. Monday night through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north, VFR Downeast. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The Small Craft Advisory was cancelled for the Intra-Coastal waters. The SCA over the Coastal Waters remains in effect through 1 PM Friday. Tonight E-NE winds become 10-20kts with gusts 25 kts possible over the outer waters. Winds less than 20kts over the Intra-Coastal waters. Seas generally 2-4ft every 5-7 sec tonight over the Intra-Coastal waters with 4-7ft every 6-7sec over the outer waters. A chance of rain/snow showers through midnight tonight then just cloudy. Rain and snow showers possible again Friday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Friday night/Saturday. Small craft advisory conditions Saturday night/Sunday. A chance of rain/snow showers Friday night. A slight chance of rain/snow showers Saturday through Saturday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/Clark Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...CB/Clark/Norcross Marine...CB/Clark/Norcross
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
557 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 ...00Z AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 Overcast skies remain across the region, along with some light snow, under an area of low pressure that is currently situated over the western Great Lakes. Current temperatures are hovering right around or slightly above freezing, but snow is expected to remain the dominant precipitation type throughout the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 Key Messages... 1) Lingering light snow this afternoon will gradually taper off this evening 2) Dry conditions Friday, under partly sunny skies A nearly vertically-stacked upper-level low, currently situated over the western Great Lakes, will slowly translate to the east tonight, leading to a diminishing trend in the ongoing light snow. Any additional accumulations should remain very light - only around a dusting to perhaps a tenth of an inch. As drier air filters in behind the departing system, expect a loss of ice crystals aloft within the dendritic growth zone. NAM and RAP model soundings both indicate that perhaps there is a possibility for a brief period of light freezing drizzle this evening, but the window is very short, given how quickly the column dries out. Eventually, only some shallow low-level moisture will remain tonight into Friday morning, with some lingering low cloud cover. Tonight`s lows will fall to the teens to the northwest, to the lower 20s to the southeast. Friday will be dry, under an area of surface high pressure. Some mid- level clouds are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse moves through the region, bringing partly cloudy skies. Since the dry air will remain in place, precipitation is not expected. Temperatures will remain seasonal, with highs Friday in the upper 20s north to the upper 30s south. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 1. Low confidence exists for a slight/low chance for light snow Saturday and Saturday night 2. Temperatures remain above normal through Thursday Friday night, high pressure will be building southward into the area, which will provide calm or light NE winds with quiet conditions. Mostly clear skies will be seen north of I80 with partly to mostly cloudy skies south. Lows will be in the teens NW to low to mid 20s SE. Saturday, a system will be moving south of the CWA and may clip mainly our southern CWA with a slight or low chance for some snow. Confidence remains low in this occurrence as it remains unclear how much the high pressure will shunt the snow chances south. Through collaboration lowered POPS and QPF amounts. This results in a light dusting to around a half inch of snow for our southern CWA, roughly SE of a line from Fairfield, IA to Princeton, IL, for Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday. Sunday through Wednesday, dry condition are forecast as high pressure will be moving across the region. A weak system clips the southern area Monday into Tuesday, but the current blend keeps the area dry. This does bring in a mild southerly flow which results in highs in the upper 30s north to mid 40s south, the warmest day of the long term. Otherwise, temperatures will still be above the normal mid 20s/low 30s for this time, with daily highs mainly in the 30s. Thursday into next Friday, models diverge on solutions, but there appears to be a southern stream low and a clipper dropping southeast which may phase over the midwest bringing a chance for a wintry mix of rain or snow to the area. Due to timing and placement differences, confidence remains low. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 555 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 An upper low was over MI/IN steadily shifting eastward. Wrap-around stratus with MVFR to IFR ceilings persist across the terminals along with some light snow or flurries at DBQ and MLI. The light snow is expected to diminish this evening. Thereafter, the primary focus will be with cloud trends. Confidence is low with the cloud trends and timing of improvement to VFR. We could see some breaks and periods of VFR develop tonight especially at BRL and CID with some clearing noted upstream into north central/central Iowa and favorable NNW trajectory. There are some challenges/concerns to the cloud forecast in that the stratus could get trapped and persist beneath a subsidence inversion, as low level ridging over the MO river valley shifts into the region over the next 24 hrs. Another concern is that stratus could develop upstream into northern Iowa and advect down across the terminals on Friday with a favorable NNW fetch in the cloud bearing layer. Lastly, any clearing tonight into early Friday could fill in with a broken stratus deck - MVFR ceilings - with heating and lingering cyclonic flow. Of note, some of the recent guidance has trended slower with eroding the stratus. Given this and the concerns noted I have delayed the improvement of VFR at the sites. Again, confidence is low on the evolution of cloud trends and timing of improvement to VFR, and will just continue to monitor ob/satellite trends and update as needed. Winds will be from W/NW at around 10 kts, and occasionally gusty into Friday AM before diminishing Friday PM. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023 Joslin on the Rock River is forecast to exceed minor flood stage this evening. It is expected to crest tomorrow morning and drop back below the 12 foot flood stage tomorrow. An areal flood warning continues due to an ice jam resulting in flooding near the Friendship Farm area along River Road on the Rock River on the Rock Island County side. This is between the Moline and Joslin gages. Also, run off from recent rainfall may keep river levels higher as well through at least Friday night. An NWS survey of the area indicated some roads are closed due to flood waters and field flooding was also observed on the Henry County side of the river. Also, the lower end of the Green River was also out of its banks. The flood warning has been extended through Friday evening. For more information on both of these, see the FLS products. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Schultz SHORT TERM...Schultz LONG TERM...14 AVIATION...McClure HYDROLOGY...14
National Weather Service Hastings NE
527 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 324 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 ...Aviation Update... Key Messages: * Patchy fog possible over snow covered areas Friday morning. * Colder Saturday with a chance for a few flurries. * The next more interesting storm system will not make it here until late Wednesday or Thursday next week. Possible Fog Friday Morning... We have seen at least some minor snow melt today and with light winds tonight we could see some patchy fog in low lying areas over our snow covered northwestern zones. The HRRR has not been indicating much fog. The SREF is showing a weak fog signal with a 30-40 percent chance for visibilities of less than 1 mile over our northwestern zones. High clouds should be moving through, which would be a limiting factor for fog, but the snow melt and light winds are favorable. Saturday Flurries... An upper low will track across the central plains Friday night into Saturday morning, but will not be able to tap into gulf moisture until after it passes east of our area. Consequently, most forecast models are either dry for our area or indicate just a few hundredths of moisture that would likely be little more than scattered flurries given the colder air that moves in with this system Friday night/Saturday. The NBM doesn`t even give us POPs so will just stick with mention of non-accumulating flurries. The bigger deal on Saturday is that it will be colder with this system and its currently forecast to be the coldest day of the forecast period. Sunday through Tuesday... It will be a quick moving fairly zonal pattern that spells dry weather, but also fairly moderate temperatures with highs near or slightly above seasonal norms. Wednesday and Thursday... The next upper level low that could bring some accumulating precipitation to our area is currently poised to enter the central plains late Wednesday into Thursday. The current track and speed would favor our southeastern zones and locations just a bit further southeast, but at day 7 the storm track is likely to shift around some. Confidence on the track and strength of this next system is currently low, it`s just too far out in time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday) Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 Dry weather with VFR conditions are currently forecast for this TAF period, though there is some uncertain into the early morning hours, as there is the potential for some fog development. Best chances look to be over areas which had more recent snowfall, but did put in a 6SM mention at both sites as that better snowpack isn`t that far off to the WNW...will be keeping an eye on how that evolves this evening/tonight. Winds this evening/overnight are expected to become light/variable, then becoming east- southeasterly mid-morning on through the remainder of this period, speeds look to top out around 10-15 MPH. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...ADP
National Weather Service Jackson KY
720 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 650 PM EST THU JAN 5 2023 23Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky between high pressure to the southwest and lower pressure to the northeast. This created a decent pressure gradient through the area and resulted in southwest winds of around 10 mph with some gusts into the 20 to 25 mph range this afternoon. Combined with sunshine for much of the afternoon, temperatures reached the low 50s for most. Now clouds and even some sprinkles or light showers are moving into the CWA from the northwest. In the meantime, temperatures vary from the mid 40s west and under the clouds to the north to the lower 50s in the southeast - though pockets of early radiational cooling have dropped some valleys in the east to the upper 30s. Dewpoints are running in the upper 20s to lower 30s most places with this dewpoint depression enough for wetbulbing to allow for a potential of flurries and light snow showers with the spotty pcpn into the night. The current forecast has this all well in hand so have mainly just updated the grids to add in the latest T/Td/Sky obs and trends. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 417 PM EST THU JAN 5 2023 Late this afternoon an upper level ridge was centered east and southeast of Bermuda in the western Atlantic while trough extended from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf of Mexico. Within this trough was an upper level low centered over southwest MI. Meanwhile a shortwave ridge extended from Mexico north through the Rockies while a shortwave trough was working into the western Conus. At the sfc, an occluded area of low pressure was centered over the Great Lakes while a triple point sfc low was developing off the mid Atlantic coast. In advance of the 500 mb trough axis, a sfc trough extended from MI into western KY. Further west and downstream of the trough working into the western Conus, an area of low pressure was starting to develop in northeastern NM in association with a shortwave trough working across the desert southwest. In between, a ridge of high pressure generally extended from the northern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. High based cumulus have developed and worked into eastern KY this afternoon while a few mid level clouds were working across the area with more widespread mid level clouds from the Great Lakes into portions of western KY in advance of the upper level trough. Tonight and Friday, the upper level low is expected to open up/weaken to an open wave as it moves across the eastern Great Lakes and into Quebec/St Lawrence Valley and the Northeast. This will take the 500 mb trough axis east of the area late tonight with a slight rise in heights late tonight and into Friday as ridging builds into the mid to Lower MS Valley and portions of the southeast. Meanwhile, the shortwave trough initially over the southwest Conus will move into the Four Corners Region and Rockies through Friday and enter the Plains Friday afternoon to Friday evening. This trough will continue working east and approach the mid MS Valley late in the period as a couple of shortwaves pass by to the north across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. A ridge of sfc high pressure will shift into the OH Valley and Southeast on Friday while sfc low pressure organizes in the central Plains, before this low nears the Ozarks to end the period with an associated warm front lifting into the TN Valley. As the upper level low and weakening parent sfc low track across the Great Lakes and into Quebec and Ontario, the sfc trough west of the area at present will track across eastern KY late this evening into the overnight. Cold air advection is expected as the 500 mb trough approaches which will steepen lapse rates and should lead to increased cloud cover and some sprinkles or flurries and possibly a couple of isolated rain or snow showers could fall from these, mainly across the north and east. The shortwave ridging and sfc high pressure ridge should lead to a gradual decrease in clouds through the day on Friday while warming aloft should end the chances for flurries or sprinkles near or soon after dawn on Friday. However, increasing isentropic lift over the warm front in the TN Valley will lead to an increase in clouds late in the period and perhaps some light precipitation. For now mainly slight chance pops were used for late Friday night though some guidance suggests that a more focused narrow area across the central to southern CWA may have slightly better chances for light snow or a mix of light snow and rain toward dawn Saturday. Temperatures will trend closer to normal for this time of year, especially for highs on Friday behind the sfc trough. Cloud cover and mixiness at night will lead to lows a few degrees above normal both tonight and on Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 238 PM EST THU JAN 5 2023 Quasi-zonal flow will kick the period off, as Eastern Kentucky resides between troughing to the northeast and ridging across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Further west, a positively tilted shortwave is present across the Central Plains, where a surface low sits across the MO/KS/OK border. A warm front will stretch across the Commonwealth inducing weak isentropic lift into Saturday morning and the chance for a rain/snow mix early in the period. Uncertainties in timing and moisture remain, where the NAM/NEST lag well behind the HRRR in better moisture moving in across the area. The outer reaches of the HREF have essentially come in dry, likely incorporating the slower progression idea of the parent low east as well as a dry low/mid level layer that needs to be overcome. Given this, have lowered PoPs initially, with the best chances during the late morning to early afternoon timeframe. Thermal layers support the opportunity for a rain to some snow mix (mainly across the north) during the morning, but no impacts are expected. Thereafter, the aforementioned low is expected to track through TN/KY, bringing better rain chances Sunday with its passage. We could see a brief pause in better PoPs Saturday night between passing boundaries, before the disturbance presses east bringing likely (50-60%) rain showers to the area through Sunday. Agreement on the quicker progression has grown within the most recent trends, suggesting showers to taper off from west to east Sunday night into early Monday morning. This will result in mostly dry conditions to start the new work week, with decreasing cloud cover through the day. During this time, another shortwave will take shape across the Central Plains, where low-end PoPs are possible the later half of the day Tuesday ahead of a passing cold front. There is a bit of spread in regard to moisture availability and the resulting QPF, with the Canadian by far the most aggressive and the ECMWF the most limited. The usual timing and trough progression differences are also evident, and thus, have stayed close to the blend. Heights will then recover into Wednesday, where dry conditions return. Another late period disturbance could bring another opportunity of showers Thursday. The blend is more than likely a bit quick with this system, so did back off on the timing/PoPs, but generally stayed close to its idea given the length in time in the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 720 PM EST THU JAN 5 2023 VFR conditions begin the period and will prevail for the next few hours. Ceilings lower from the northwest through the night, associated with an the upper level wave moving into the Ohio Valley. While overcast conditions will be the primarily impact for the KSYM, KJKL, and KSJS terminals this evening and overnight a few sprinkles or flurries will possible, though with no aviation impacts. Low clouds in the MVFR range could also affect KLOZ and KSME for a couple of hours late tonight, but have left them VFR for now. Southwest to west winds of 5 to 10 kts hold through 03Z before winds generally go west for the balance of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...BB AVIATION...JP/GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 KEY MESSAGE: - Dense fog possible overnight into Friday. Light snow still persists over western WI early this afternoon. But, it will be exiting to the east in the next few hours officially ending an impressive early January winter storm. Much of south- central to central MN has received at least 8" of snow over the last 2 days with most of the area encompassed by RWF, STC, MKT, and the Twin Cities receiving 12-18"! MSP officially recorded 15" from the event, which is the 14th largest single snowfall total on record. (Quite impressive given our rich history of winter storms.) Skies have been clearing rather nicely to the west of the precip and it has been very nice to see the sun again. Temperatures, though, are decreasing as northwesterly flow has allowed for CAA. Western MN only rose into the mid teens this afternoon. With clearer skies forecast into tonight, expecting a good night for radiational cooling. Thus, have lowered overnight lows a few more degrees so much of western MN is near 0 while elsewhere ranges to near 5 above. In addition, forecast soundings show very moist near surface profiles occurring over western and southern MN during early Friday morning. Areas of freezing fog seem like a good possibility for much of this region with widespread dense freezing fog possible. Western MN gives the only pause as the forecast thermal profile is actually saturated within the DGZ, which would result in ice crystals instead of fog. Still, travel Friday morning could be hazardous due to reduced visibilities until the freezing fog burns off later in the morning. Friday should be relatively nice, but cold with partly sunny skies, light northwesterly winds, and highs in the mid teens to near 20. Some freezing fog may be possible again Friday night while lows remain near 0 to 5 above. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 A chilly start to the day with temperatures in the single digits with highs in the teens. The cold doesn`t stick around long as temperatures will gradually warm up through early next week. High pressure generally remains overhead through middle of the next week, which means a mostly dry forecast is likely for the next several days. Aloft, the jet stream will remain suppressed to our south with any systems moving through the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions. Monday appears to be the warmest day of the period with highs in the low 30s. Temperatures cool back near seasonable values by mid week. Our next chance for any sensible precipitation will be next Wednesday into Thursday per the NBM PoPs. Guidance hints at a mid level low moving into the Central Plains. 12z deterministic GFS and Canadian bring it further north and impact our forecast area while 12z ECMWF keeps it suppressed to our south with little to no precip. Ensembles offer little to build confidence in either solution this far out so for now it`s worth only a quick mention. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 544 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023 There are 2 difficulties for tonight. What will the extent of any fog be and what will happen with the stratus over the Twin Cities at the start of the period. For the fog, we will have a saturated boundary layer tonight, with light winds and clear skies (outside of the patch of stratus over eastern MN), so ideal radiational fog conditions, which the HRRR continues to hammer away at in MN tonight. As a result, hit the fog hard outside of MSP and EAU, where cloud cover may keep fog from being as big of an issue. As for that stratus, as our flow falls off, it has stalled out. As a result, kept the stratus going all night at MSP. Low confidence in this TAF for RNH/MKT/STC which sits on the edge of this stratus deck, with these sites possibly going the way of either stratus or dense fog, it`s hard to say at this point. If we see fog, it will be slow to improve given the weak flow and weak sun, but eventually by the afternoon, we expect to see mainly clear skies. KMSP...Stratus progress has stalled over the last hour, so decided to keep it in through the night. The good thing with that, is the stratus will keep dense fog from being a problem, with vis under 1sm being tough to come by if we hold on to the stratus as expected. Given the weak flow, it is possible we never loose the stratus on Friday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat...VFR. Chc AM FZFG. Wind lgt & vrb. Sun...VFR. Chc AM FZFG. Wind S 5-10 kts. Mon...VFR. Chc IFR cigs. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming W. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CTG LONG TERM...BPH AVIATION...MPG