Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/06/23

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Aberdeen SD

 520 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

The weather remains clear and quiet this evening under high
pressure. Watching an area of stratus across central ND that may
move south through the night. No major changes are planned to the
current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 144 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

Quiet overall in the short term with the main concern being fog
possible again overnight into early Friday morning. Starting out
with the synoptic setup, Rap and ECMWF/GFS ensembles agree on the
timing and placement of a 500mb ridge over the Rockies and a
shortwave over ND/MN border around 00Z Friday. This ridge moves in
overhead Friday with more of a split flow as the central parts of
the Midwest will see a slight troughing/shortwave pattern overhead
Friday afternoon and pushing east Saturday. At the surface, high
pressure will keep conditons quiet with light winds through early
Saturday before pushing off to the east. Otherwise, HREF indicates
some passing mid/high clouds as we head into this evening and into
the overnight.

With the snow covered ground, "warmer" air, and light winds, we
continue the trend of patchy/areas of fog possible again overnight
into early Friday. RAP/NAM Bufkit soundings across the CWA indicate
the low level moisture(Sfc-900mb) with short term hi-res models
indicating a lowering of visibility during this time. As what the
previous discussion mentioned, a lot of these models and soundings
have been overdoing the fog potential the past few mornings. It has
been noted that the low level moisture has resided in the dendritic
growth zone near the surface. This results in the formation of more
ice crystals and that could be the reason why we have not seen much
more widespread fog. Also, just above the saturated lower levels, is
much drier air (due to the high). The soundings, however, for the
overnight show a deeper layer of low level moisture into Friday
morning than the past few nights. I went ahead and did a combo of
ConsShort/HRRR/Rap from 0Z through Friday to make up for this in the
visibility grids. This will need to be monitored by the next shift
and if any changes need to be made.

925mb temps overnight will range from -4 to -11C as these winds will
also be out of the northwest/light and variable. This will put our
overnight lows ranging from -2 to the single digits. Otherwise temps
for Friday will range in the teens and lower 20s with similar
overnight temps for Friday night into Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 144 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

Overall, the flow pattern aloft over this CWA from Saturday through
next Thursday could be described as upper level ridge-dominated.
Ridging aloft will be in place Saturday and Sunday before being
suppressed some heading into Monday. But, the ridge aloft is
currently progged to pump back up heading into the middle of next
week. The low level thermal advection pattern right now for the out
periods appears to support warmth (perhaps a bit warmer than climo
normal) over the weekend into early next week. There should be a
cold fropa happening at some point early next week (model timing is
different amongst the 3 primary GSM`s presently), which will cycle
in some low level CAA and probably set temperatures back down closer
to climo normal for a few days, per the GFS/EC 850hpa temp anomalies
off the Ens S.A. table. By the end of the period, more split flow
jet energy aloft is seen in the models, so expect lots of changes to
timing/coverage of the PoPs that are in the forecast late in the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue this evening. IFR fog and/or stratus
may develop after midnight across the region but should clear by
late morning/early afternoon.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Wise



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

 913 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track southeast of the region overnight, then
move east of Nova Scotia Friday. A cold front approaches from
the northwest Friday night, then crosses the area Saturday. High
pressure builds across the area Sunday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:13 PM Update: Cloudy the remainder of the night with a little
light snow or flurries at times. No recent reports of any
lingering freezing drizzle Downeast. Updated to account for the
current and expected conditions the remainder of the night. Did
drop the small craft advisory for the intra-coastal waters with
this update.

Previous discussion:
A low pressure system is currently pulling eastward away from
the area. Accumulating snow with this system has largely ended
from the Central Highlands southward. Thus, the Winter Weather
Advisory has been dropped for areas that were under one.
However, due to low-levels remaining moist and drier air in the
upper levels, patchy freezing drizzle has been reported,
especially near Bangor. The threat of freezing drizzle is
expected to continue through late this evening, so have issued a
Special Weather Statement for the Central Highlands and
Southeast Aroostook County on southward to cover the threat.
The freezing drizzle should end later tonight as drier low-level
air works in.

Across Northern Aroostook County, light snow and snow showers
are falling at this time. However, dry air has kept snowfall
accumulations down over most of that area. High resolution
guidance such as the HRRR and HREF show a high likelihood of
snow showers continuing across Northern Aroostook through this
evening, so kept likely pops through that time. Total
accumulations of an inch or two of snow are possible by the time
the snow showers taper off late tonight. Temperatures will
remain relatively steady tonight.

An upper-level trough axis is then forecast to move across the
area on Friday. This will spawn a low pressure system near
Southern New England. Most of the precipitation with this system
will remain south of the area. However, most models do show a
period of light snow beginning Friday afternoon. It will not be
a large storm, but snow accumulations around an inch are
possible in many spots. High temperatures on Friday will be in
the upper 20s to near 30 in the North and the Central Highlands,
with lower 30s south of there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure exits southeast of Nova Scotia Friday night while
an upper level disturbance crosses the region. Expect mostly
cloudy skies across the region Friday night. Will also have a
chance of snow showers across northern areas. Across Downeast
areas, will have a chance of snow showers early with a slight
chance of snow showers late. A cold front will cross the region
Saturday along with another upper level disturbance. Skies will
remain mostly cloudy along with a chance of snow showers north,
slight chance Downeast. High pressure will build east toward the
region Saturday night. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a
slight chance/chance of snow showers early Saturday night, then
partly cloudy late. High pressure will bring mostly/partly sunny
skies Sunday. Temperatures will be at above normal levels in
advance of the cold front Saturday. Expect below normal level
temperatures Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Sunday night with mostly
clear/partly cloudy skies. A warm front lifts north of Maine
Monday with partly cloudy skies. A cold front/possible low
should then begin to approach from the west later Tuesday.
Expect mostly cloudy skies north, partly/mostly cloudy Downeast,
Tuesday. The low/cold front should cross the region Wednesday.
Precipitation Wednesday should generally be in the form of snow,
possibly mixed with rain Downeast. Precipitation
chances/amounts will be dependent on the eventual
strength/organization of the system. Uncertainty exists
Thursday regarding a potential low deepening east of the
Maritimes which could possibly wrap snow back toward the
forecast area. Above normal level temperatures are expected
Monday through Wednesday, with near normal level temperatures
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ceiling at KFVE and KCAR as of 9 PM with MVFR at
KPQI and KHUL. The ceilings will be trending down to IFR to low
end MVFR with IFR/MVFR Vsby at times in light snow. IFR to low
end MVFR at KBGR and KBHB overnight. E-NE winds 5-10 KT tonight
all terminals.

Conditions improving to MVFR all terminals Fri AM. Some IFR
possible again Fri PM with -SN, especially south. Light E-NE
winds all terminals.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night...MVFR/IFR. A chance of snow showers. Variable winds 5
to 10 knots.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A chance of snow showers north,
slight chance Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
west/northwest 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR with occasional IFR early, then VFR. A
slight chance/chance of snow showers early. West/northwest
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Sunday through Sunday night...VFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 15
knots, becoming variable 5 to 10 knots Sunday. Variable winds 5 to
10 knots, becoming southwest Sunday night.

Monday...VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots.

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north, VFR Downeast.
South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The Small Craft Advisory was cancelled for the
Intra-Coastal waters. The SCA over the Coastal Waters remains
in effect through 1 PM Friday. Tonight E-NE winds become
10-20kts with gusts 25 kts possible over the outer waters.
Winds less than 20kts over the Intra-Coastal waters. Seas
generally 2-4ft every 5-7 sec tonight over the Intra-Coastal
waters with 4-7ft every 6-7sec over the outer waters. A chance
of rain/snow showers through midnight tonight then just cloudy.
Rain and snow showers possible again Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Friday
night/Saturday. Small craft advisory conditions Saturday
night/Sunday. A chance of rain/snow showers Friday night. A
slight chance of rain/snow showers Saturday through Saturday
night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Clark
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...CB/Clark/Norcross
Marine...CB/Clark/Norcross



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL

 557 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

Overcast skies remain across the region, along with some light
snow, under an area of low pressure that is currently situated
over the western Great Lakes. Current temperatures are hovering
right around or slightly above freezing, but snow is expected to
remain the dominant precipitation type throughout the afternoon
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

Key Messages...

1) Lingering light snow this afternoon will gradually taper off this
evening
2) Dry conditions Friday, under partly sunny skies

A nearly vertically-stacked upper-level low, currently situated
over the western Great Lakes, will slowly translate to the east
tonight, leading to a diminishing trend in the ongoing light snow.
Any additional accumulations should remain very light - only
around a dusting to perhaps a tenth of an inch. As drier air
filters in behind the departing system, expect a loss of ice
crystals aloft within the dendritic growth zone. NAM and RAP model
soundings both indicate that perhaps there is a possibility for a
brief period of light freezing drizzle this evening, but the
window is very short, given how quickly the column dries out.
Eventually, only some shallow low-level moisture will remain
tonight into Friday morning, with some lingering low cloud cover.
Tonight`s lows will fall to the teens to the northwest, to the
lower 20s to the southeast.

Friday will be dry, under an area of surface high pressure. Some mid-
level clouds are expected to develop as a shortwave impulse moves
through the region, bringing partly cloudy skies. Since the dry air
will remain in place, precipitation is not expected. Temperatures
will remain seasonal, with highs Friday in the upper 20s north to
the upper 30s south.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

1. Low confidence exists for a slight/low chance for light snow
Saturday and Saturday night

2. Temperatures remain above normal through Thursday

Friday night, high pressure will be building southward into the
area, which will provide calm or light NE winds with quiet
conditions. Mostly clear skies will be seen north of I80 with partly
to mostly cloudy skies south.  Lows will be in the teens NW to low
to mid 20s SE.

Saturday, a system will be moving south of the CWA and may clip
mainly our southern CWA with a slight or low chance for some snow.
Confidence remains low in this occurrence as it remains unclear
how much the high pressure will shunt the snow chances south.
Through collaboration lowered POPS and QPF amounts. This results
in a light dusting to around a half inch of snow for our southern
CWA, roughly SE of a line from Fairfield, IA to Princeton, IL, for
Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday.

Sunday through Wednesday, dry condition are forecast as high
pressure will be moving across the region.  A weak system clips the
southern area Monday into Tuesday, but the current blend keeps the
area dry. This does bring in a mild southerly flow which results in
highs in the upper 30s north to mid 40s south, the warmest day of
the long term.  Otherwise, temperatures will still be above the
normal mid 20s/low 30s for this time, with daily highs mainly in the
30s.

Thursday into next Friday, models diverge on solutions, but there
appears to be a southern stream low and a clipper dropping southeast
which may phase over the midwest bringing a chance for a wintry mix
of rain or snow to the area. Due to timing and placement
differences, confidence remains low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

An upper low was over MI/IN steadily shifting eastward. Wrap-around
stratus with MVFR to IFR ceilings persist across the terminals along
with some light snow or flurries at DBQ and MLI. The light snow is
expected to diminish this evening. Thereafter, the primary focus will
be with cloud trends. Confidence is low with the cloud trends and
timing of improvement to VFR. We could see some breaks and periods of
VFR develop tonight especially at BRL and CID with some clearing noted
upstream into north central/central Iowa and favorable NNW trajectory.
There are some challenges/concerns to the cloud forecast in that the
stratus could get trapped and persist beneath a subsidence inversion,
as low level ridging over the MO river valley shifts into the region
over the next 24 hrs. Another concern is that stratus could develop
upstream into northern Iowa and advect down across the terminals on
Friday with a favorable NNW fetch in the cloud bearing layer. Lastly,
any clearing tonight into early Friday could fill in with a broken
stratus deck - MVFR ceilings - with heating and lingering cyclonic flow.
Of note, some of the recent guidance has trended slower with eroding
the stratus. Given this and the concerns noted I have delayed the
improvement of VFR at the sites. Again, confidence is low on the
evolution of cloud trends and timing of improvement to VFR, and will
just continue to monitor ob/satellite trends and update as needed.
Winds will be from W/NW at around 10 kts, and occasionally gusty into
Friday AM before diminishing Friday PM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Jan 4 2023

Joslin on the Rock River is forecast to exceed minor flood stage
this evening. It is expected to crest tomorrow morning and drop
back below the 12 foot flood stage tomorrow.

An areal flood warning continues due to an ice jam resulting in
flooding near the Friendship Farm area along River Road on the
Rock River on the Rock Island County side. This is between the
Moline and Joslin gages. Also, run off from recent rainfall may
keep river levels higher as well through at least Friday night. An
NWS survey of the area indicated some roads are closed due to
flood waters and field flooding was also observed on the Henry
County side of the river. Also, the lower end of the Green River
was also out of its banks. The flood warning has been extended
through Friday evening.

For more information on both of these, see the FLS products.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Schultz
SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...McClure
HYDROLOGY...14



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Hastings NE

 527 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

...Aviation Update...

Key Messages:

* Patchy fog possible over snow covered areas Friday morning.

* Colder Saturday with a chance for a few flurries.

* The next more interesting storm system will not make it here
  until late Wednesday or Thursday next week.

Possible Fog Friday Morning...
We have seen at least some minor snow melt today and with light
winds tonight we could see some patchy fog in low lying areas
over our snow covered northwestern zones. The HRRR has not been
indicating much fog. The SREF is showing a weak fog signal with a
30-40 percent chance for visibilities of less than 1 mile over our
northwestern zones. High clouds should be moving through, which
would be a limiting factor for fog, but the snow melt and light
winds are favorable.

Saturday Flurries...
An upper low will track across the central plains Friday night
into Saturday morning, but will not be able to tap into gulf
moisture until after it passes east of our area. Consequently,
most forecast models are either dry for our area or indicate just
a few hundredths of moisture that would likely be little more than
scattered flurries given the colder air that moves in with this
system Friday night/Saturday. The NBM doesn`t even give us POPs so
will just stick with mention of non-accumulating flurries. The
bigger deal on Saturday is that it will be colder with this system
and its currently forecast to be the coldest day of the forecast
period.

Sunday through Tuesday...
It will be a quick moving fairly zonal pattern that spells dry
weather, but also fairly moderate temperatures with highs near or
slightly above seasonal norms.

Wednesday and Thursday...
The next upper level low that could bring some accumulating
precipitation to our area is currently poised to enter the central
plains late Wednesday into Thursday. The current track and speed
would favor our southeastern zones and locations just a bit
further southeast, but at day 7 the storm track is likely to shift
around some. Confidence on the track and strength of this next
system is currently low, it`s just too far out in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

Dry weather with VFR conditions are currently forecast for this
TAF period, though there is some uncertain into the early morning
hours, as there is the potential for some fog development. Best
chances look to be over areas which had more recent snowfall, but
did put in a 6SM mention at both sites as that better snowpack
isn`t that far off to the WNW...will be keeping an eye on how that
evolves this evening/tonight. Winds this evening/overnight are
expected to become light/variable, then becoming east-
southeasterly mid-morning on through the remainder of this
period, speeds look to top out around 10-15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...ADP



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

National Weather Service Jackson KY

 720 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM EST THU JAN 5 2023

23Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky between high pressure to
the southwest and lower pressure to the northeast. This created a
decent pressure gradient through the area and resulted in
southwest winds of around 10 mph with some gusts into the 20 to
25 mph range this afternoon. Combined with sunshine for much of
the afternoon, temperatures reached the low 50s for most. Now
clouds and even some sprinkles or light showers are moving into
the CWA from the northwest. In the meantime, temperatures vary
from the mid 40s west and under the clouds to the north to the
lower 50s in the southeast - though pockets of early radiational
cooling have dropped some valleys in the east to the upper 30s.
Dewpoints are running in the upper 20s to lower 30s most places
with this dewpoint depression enough for wetbulbing to allow for a
potential of flurries and light snow showers with the spotty pcpn
into the night. The current forecast has this all well in hand so
have mainly just updated the grids to add in the latest T/Td/Sky
obs and trends. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 417 PM EST THU JAN 5 2023

Late this afternoon an upper level ridge was centered east and
southeast of Bermuda in the western Atlantic while trough
extended from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf of Mexico.
Within this trough was an upper level low centered over southwest
MI. Meanwhile a shortwave ridge extended from Mexico north through
the Rockies while a shortwave trough was working into the western
Conus. At the sfc, an occluded area of low pressure was centered
over the Great Lakes while a triple point sfc low was developing
off the mid Atlantic coast. In advance of the 500 mb trough axis,
a sfc trough extended from MI into western KY. Further west and
downstream of the trough working into the western Conus, an area
of low pressure was starting to develop in northeastern NM in
association with a shortwave trough working across the desert
southwest. In between, a ridge of high pressure generally extended
from the northern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. High based
cumulus have developed and worked into eastern KY this afternoon
while a few mid level clouds were working across the area with
more widespread mid level clouds from the Great Lakes into
portions of western KY in advance of the upper level trough.

Tonight and Friday, the upper level low is expected to open
up/weaken to an open wave as it moves across the eastern Great
Lakes and into Quebec/St Lawrence Valley and the Northeast. This
will take the 500 mb trough axis east of the area late tonight
with a slight rise in heights late tonight and into Friday as
ridging builds into the mid to Lower MS Valley and portions of the
southeast. Meanwhile, the shortwave trough initially over the
southwest Conus will move into the Four Corners Region and Rockies
through Friday and enter the Plains Friday afternoon to Friday
evening. This trough will continue working east and approach the
mid MS Valley late in the period as a couple of shortwaves pass by
to the north across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. A
ridge of sfc high pressure will shift into the OH Valley and
Southeast on Friday while sfc low pressure organizes in the
central Plains, before this low nears the Ozarks to end the period
with an associated warm front lifting into the TN Valley.

As the upper level low and weakening parent sfc low track across
the Great Lakes and into Quebec and Ontario, the sfc trough west
of the area at present will track across eastern KY late this
evening into the overnight. Cold air advection is expected as the
500 mb trough approaches which will steepen lapse rates and should
lead to increased cloud cover and some sprinkles or flurries and
possibly a couple of isolated rain or snow showers could fall from
these, mainly across the north and east. The shortwave ridging
and sfc high pressure ridge  should lead to a gradual decrease in
clouds through the day on Friday while warming aloft should end
the chances for flurries or sprinkles near or soon after dawn on
Friday. However, increasing isentropic lift over the warm front in
the TN Valley will lead to an increase in clouds late in the
period and perhaps some light precipitation. For now mainly
slight chance pops were used for late Friday night though some
guidance suggests that a more focused narrow area across the
central to southern CWA may have slightly better chances for light
snow or a mix of light snow and rain toward dawn Saturday.

Temperatures will trend closer to normal for this time of year,
especially for highs on Friday behind the sfc trough. Cloud cover
and mixiness at night will lead to lows a few degrees above normal
both tonight and on Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM EST THU JAN 5 2023

Quasi-zonal flow will kick the period off, as Eastern Kentucky
resides between troughing to the northeast and ridging across the
Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Further west, a positively tilted
shortwave is present across the Central Plains, where a surface low
sits across the MO/KS/OK border. A warm front will stretch across
the Commonwealth inducing weak isentropic lift into Saturday morning
and the chance for a rain/snow mix early in the period.
Uncertainties in timing and moisture remain, where the NAM/NEST lag
well behind the HRRR in better moisture moving in across the area.
The outer reaches of the HREF have essentially come in dry, likely
incorporating the slower progression idea of the parent low east as
well as a dry low/mid level layer that needs to be overcome. Given
this, have lowered PoPs initially, with the best chances during the
late morning to early afternoon timeframe. Thermal layers support
the opportunity for a rain to some snow mix (mainly across the
north) during the morning, but no impacts are expected. Thereafter,
the aforementioned low is expected to track through TN/KY, bringing
better rain chances Sunday with its passage. We could see a brief
pause in better PoPs Saturday night between passing boundaries,
before the disturbance presses east bringing likely (50-60%) rain
showers to the area through Sunday. Agreement on the quicker
progression has grown within the most recent trends, suggesting
showers to taper off from west to east Sunday night into early
Monday morning. This will result in mostly dry conditions to start
the new work week, with decreasing cloud cover through the day.

During this time, another shortwave will take shape across the
Central Plains, where low-end PoPs are possible the later half of
the day Tuesday ahead of a passing cold front. There is a bit of
spread in regard to moisture availability and the resulting QPF,
with the Canadian by far the most aggressive and the ECMWF the most
limited. The usual timing and trough progression differences are
also evident, and thus, have stayed close to the blend. Heights will
then recover into Wednesday, where dry conditions return. Another
late period disturbance could bring another opportunity of showers
Thursday. The blend is more than likely a bit quick with this
system, so did back off on the timing/PoPs, but generally stayed
close to its idea given the length in time in the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST THU JAN 5 2023

VFR conditions begin the period and will prevail for the next few
hours. Ceilings lower from the northwest through the night,
associated with an the upper level wave moving into the Ohio
Valley. While overcast conditions will be the primarily impact for
the KSYM, KJKL, and KSJS terminals this evening and overnight a
few sprinkles or flurries will possible, though with no aviation
impacts. Low clouds in the MVFR range could also affect KLOZ and
KSME for a couple of hours late tonight, but have left them VFR
for now. Southwest to west winds of 5 to 10 kts hold through 03Z
before winds generally go west for the balance of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BB
AVIATION...JP/GREIF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

 623 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

KEY MESSAGE:

- Dense fog possible overnight into Friday.

Light snow still persists over western WI early this afternoon. But,
it will be exiting to the east in the next few hours officially
ending an impressive early January winter storm. Much of south-
central to central MN has received at least 8" of snow over the last
2 days with most of the area encompassed by RWF, STC, MKT, and the
Twin Cities receiving 12-18"! MSP officially recorded 15" from the
event, which is the 14th largest single snowfall total on record.
(Quite impressive given our rich history of winter storms.)

Skies have been clearing rather nicely to the west of the precip and
it has been very nice to see the sun again. Temperatures, though,
are decreasing as northwesterly flow has allowed for CAA. Western MN
only rose into the mid teens this afternoon. With clearer skies
forecast into tonight, expecting a good night for radiational
cooling. Thus, have lowered overnight lows a few more degrees so
much of western MN is near 0 while elsewhere ranges to near 5 above.
In addition, forecast soundings show very moist near surface
profiles occurring over western and southern MN during early Friday
morning. Areas of freezing fog seem like a good possibility for much
of this region with widespread dense freezing fog possible. Western
MN gives the only pause as the forecast thermal profile is actually
saturated within the DGZ, which would result in ice crystals instead
of fog. Still, travel Friday morning could be hazardous due to
reduced visibilities until the freezing fog burns off later in the
morning.

Friday should be relatively nice, but cold with partly sunny skies,
light northwesterly winds, and highs in the mid teens to near 20.
Some freezing fog may be possible again Friday night while lows
remain near 0 to 5 above.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

A chilly start to the day with temperatures in the single digits
with highs in the teens. The cold doesn`t stick around long as
temperatures will gradually warm up through early next week. High
pressure generally remains overhead through middle of the next week,
which means a mostly dry forecast is likely for the next several
days. Aloft, the jet stream will remain suppressed to our south with
any systems moving through the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley
regions. Monday appears to be the warmest day of the period with
highs in the low 30s. Temperatures cool back near seasonable values
by mid week. Our next chance for any sensible precipitation will be
next Wednesday into Thursday per the NBM PoPs. Guidance hints at a
mid level low moving into the Central Plains. 12z deterministic GFS
and Canadian bring it further north and impact our forecast area
while 12z ECMWF keeps it suppressed to our south with little to no
precip. Ensembles offer little to build confidence in either solution
this far out so for now it`s worth only a quick mention.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2023

There are 2 difficulties for tonight. What will the extent of any fog
be and what will happen with the stratus over the Twin Cities at the
start of the period. For the fog, we will have a saturated boundary
layer tonight, with light winds and clear skies (outside of the patch
of stratus over eastern MN), so ideal radiational fog conditions,
which the HRRR continues to hammer away at in MN tonight. As a
result, hit the fog hard outside of MSP and EAU, where cloud cover
may keep fog from being as big of an issue. As for that stratus, as
our flow falls off, it has stalled out. As a result, kept the stratus
going all night at MSP. Low confidence in this TAF for RNH/MKT/STC
which sits on the edge of this stratus deck, with these sites
possibly going the way of either stratus or dense fog, it`s hard to
say at this point. If we see fog, it will be slow to improve given
the weak flow and weak sun, but eventually by the afternoon, we
expect to see mainly clear skies.

KMSP...Stratus progress has stalled over the last hour, so decided to
keep it in through the night. The good thing with that, is the
stratus will keep dense fog from being a problem, with vis under 1sm
being tough to come by if we hold on to the stratus as expected.
Given the weak flow, it is possible we never loose the stratus on
Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Chc AM FZFG. Wind lgt & vrb.
Sun...VFR. Chc AM FZFG. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Chc IFR cigs. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming W.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CTG
LONG TERM...BPH
AVIATION...MPG