Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/20/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
855 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems will bring unsettled weather
to the region through early Friday. Arctic high pressure and a
very cold airmass will build in Friday through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Much of the forecast is on track. Lows had to be nudged down into
the lower 30s in the Walterboro-Francis Marion National Forest
corridor as 20/0145z mesonet, RAWS and AWOS observations showed
temperatures were at or just above freezing where a period of fairly
thin cirrus and calm winds promoted a window of strong radiational
cooling. Although some very light rain/sprinkles will approach the
Walterboro area after midnight, no p-type issues are expected as
both surface temperatures and surface wet-bulb temperatures should
increase as clouds thicken and low-level warm air advection
initiates signaling the onset of isentropic ascent. Other than
nudging lows down a bit in the above mentioned areas, the forecast
required very little adjustment for the late evening update.
Tonight will feature a transition from dry weather to fairly
wet conditions as high pressure wedges inland and rain spreads
in from the southwest as cyclogenesis matures along the northern
Gulf coast. Regional radars late this evening show a fairly
widespread area of rain extending from the Lower Mississippi
Valley east into parts of the Deep South. This activity is being
driven by a large swath of modest isentropic ascent ahead of
shortwave energy rippling east in the split flow regime with
further support from the right entrance region of a 115 kt jet
streak embedded in the subtropical jet.
This large region of rain will propagate/develop to the east
tonight with rain beginning to overspread Southeast Georgia
later this evening, then nudging into southern South Carolina
overnight. RAP soundings show quite a bit of dry in place, but
also show the column quickly moistening through the night as
isentropic ascent intensifies and condensation pressure deficits
crash. This should result in a gradual uptick in measurable
rainfall through daybreak, especially over Southeast Georgia
into the Beaufort/Hilton Head areas.
Categorical pops roughly along/south of the I-16 corridor look
good. Lows will range from the lower 30s across the Walterboro-
Francis Marion National Forest corridor to the upper 40s/near
50 at the beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Decent southern stream short-wave energy is progressing through the
SW CONUS/northern Mexico region with a downstream upper jet axis
that extends from Texas to off the Atlantic. Short-wave will be
progressing eastward through the Southern Plains states on Tuesday
and off the SE coast by early Wednesday. Ahead of the wave a
corridor of strong low-mid frontogenesis is developing across the
northern Gulf and into the southern Gulf states and expected to
spread into our region later tonight and persist through Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Meanwhile, coastal low/troughiness will be developing
in the Atlantic waters later Tuesday through Wednesday with some
hint that the coastal low may eventually work it`s way into the
Carolina coast by Thursday, helping to augment precip potential
through this time as well. Upshot...a period of wet weather is on
tap through the short term period and decent needed rainfall
potential of 1.00 to 1.50 inches possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High impact weather potential: Blast of arctic air and associated
impacts still anticipated later Friday into the holiday weekend.
As has been discussed for several days, potent short-wave energy and
core of very cold air is present across far western Canada/PAC NW
this afternoon and will begin to dive down into the northern Plains
and Rockies Wednesday and further into the eastern CONUS later
Thursday through Friday. This will spin up a strong/high impact
storm system for the Midwest/Great Lakes/New England region for the
late week period, just in time for the holiday travel.
For us, potent cold front and core of arctic air will been taking a
deep dive through the SE states early Friday and delivering the
coldest air of the season thus far. Not much of a change with
successive guidance runs, which still depict an impressive
temperature drop Friday as H8 temps go from around +10C Friday
morning to -5C to -10C by 00Z Saturday. Still looking like the
deeper moisture and precip possibilities will be off the coast well
ahead of the arrival of the colder air, while an impressive dry slot
punches over our region through the day Friday. So at this juncture,
very little, if any wintry precip is anticipated.
Bigger concern remains with the strong cold air advection/surge that
occurs with FROPA on Friday tapping into 40 to 50 knot winds at the
top of the mixed layer. This suggests wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph
across inland areas with a lower end probability of a few gusts
pushing into wind advisory criteria (frequent gusts to 45 mph). Gale
warnings remain a higher probability for Friday into Friday night.
Finally, with surface temps dipping into the lower to middle 20s
Friday night and the strong winds behind the front, wind chill
readings running 5 to 15 degrees Friday night into Saturday morning
remain a strong possibility. Wind Chill Advisories may be
needed. Plan to highlight these threats in the HWO.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI: VFR this evening with rain spreading in during the
morning Tuesday and continuing into the early evening. Expect
MVFR vsbys/cigs to develop by 18z and continue through the
remainder of the 00z TAF period. Some IFR conditions will be
possible by late in the TAF period, but timing is not high
enough at this time to include a mention:
KSAV: VFR will give way to MVFR conditions closer to daybreak as
rain intensifies over the region. Rain may reach the terminal as
early as 08z, but lingering low-level dry air should keep vsbys
above MVFR for now. Risk for IFR conditions will increase by 15z
and continue through the remainder of the 00z TAF period as
widespread rains and low clouds expand. Cigs are expected to
remain just above alternate minimums at this time.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Increasing risk for unsettled weather and
flight restrictions will begin later Tuesday and persist through the
rest of the week.
&&
.MARINE...
Initiated the start time of the Small Craft Advisory for the
Georgia offshore waters to the current time as seas at buoy east
of Saint Marys has been around 6 ft which should extend into the
Georgia waters behind 30 NM.
Tonight: Overnight, winds will gradually increase in strength
as the gradient pinches with high pressure to the north and a
shortwave progressing through the region. The marine waters
could see more frequent gusts to 25 knots in the latter part of
the tonight period. Seas will mostly average 2-4 feet, but
should increase a bit across the Georgia offshore waters
overnight in the 5-6 ft range. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for the 20-60 nm offshore GA waters for 6 ft seas and
also the possibility for 25 knot gusts.
Tuesday through Saturday: Northeast flow ramps up Tuesday
through Wednesday with gusts and seas pushing into small craft
territory. Southerly flow will briefly develop Thursday before
switching to the west late Thursday night and Friday following a
strong cold front. Gale conditions are looking increasingly
likely for Friday into Friday night, especially beyond 15 or 20
nm where water temps are warmer. Gale Watches/Warnings are
possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is possible along the SC coast with the
morning high tides Wednesday through Friday due to strengthening
NE winds. The best chance looks to be Wednesday and Thursday
during which the NE gradient will be tighter.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for AMZ374.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
622 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 553 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022
Raising the flag on a potentially significant impactful system in
the region. The expected strong winds coupled with the snow
loading on trees from the last storm may prove very impactful as
power outages from falling trees will be a HUGE concern! This is
exacerbated by the much colder air mass that will linger/arrive
post-storm when power may not be on to many residences. The
longevity of this storm is quite long too lasting from Wednesday
until Saturday during the holiday travel season. The largest snow
amounts may vary widely across our forecast area, but even a
little snow in these winds may cause blizzard conditions. If the
track does happen to drift further to the west, we`ll get a
trifecta of blizzard conditions in high winds with moderate to
heavy snowfall (though more fluffy this time) and cold
temperatures and wind chills. Opted for a Winter Storm Watch to
get people to start thinking about preparing for this next storm.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022
Summary: A clipper system is moving across the Northland this
afternoon and will exit overnight. A Winter Weather Advisory is
still in effect across the Arrowhead with snow accumulations of 2-5
inches expected. Arctic air arrives on the backside of this clipper
with a period of cold temperatures enduring across the region
through the week. Wind Chill Advisories may be needed Wednesday
morning. Another potent winter system may impact the region later
this week. Details are still being refined but very windy conditions
with fluffy snow could lead to hazardous travel conditions before
the holiday weekend.
An upper level trough is entering in from the west this afternoon.
Advected layer precipitable water is highlighting Pacific moisture
over the Northern Plains that will be lofted east as a clipper
propagates through the overnight hours. As the shortwave pushes east
we will also have an inverted trough at the surface in sync with the
clipper to help tap into a little gulf moisture. The overall pace of
the system is rather quick and lacks deep forcing for extra snowfall
generation. Due to the low residence time and weak synoptics the
general snow accumulation should be limited to 2-5 inches. No
chances made to the Winter Weather Advisory in effect. Additionally,
radar this morning has shown a persistent lake effect streamer
extending from the Twin Ports northeast towards Sand islands. The
RAP guidance shows a band of convergent winds near the surface
shifting towards the North Shore later this afternoon which may
swing the streamer. This may lead to some locally enhanced snow
accumulations prior to the onset of the clipper system moving
through.
On the backside of the exiting clipper arctic air rushes in from the
northwest. This arctic air is expected to endure through the
remainder of the week. Highs will struggle to break into the double
digits most days. We may also need to put out our first wind chill
advisory for the winter season Wednesday morning. Our Min T`s will
largely be in the negative teens with winds out of the west making
our wind chills in the negative twenties.
There is a growing signal for another winter storm to impact the
Northland later this week. The fine details of the placement of the
impending synoptic features still remain inconsistent among the 12Z
suite of deterministic guidance leading to many uncertainties.
However, there is a good agreement for bringing a strong upper level
jet diving southeast across the Rockies beginning Wednesday as a
broad trough deepens over the west. The low the develops in the lee
of the Rockies will then eject out over the Midwest providing
widespread snow and very strong winds. Unlike our "Blue Blizzard"
last week this system will be quite a bit different. For starters,
our environment is much colder this time around which will lead
to higher SLRs. This gives us light fluffy snow as opposed to the
heavy wet snow. The NAEFS ensemble rapidly deepens the low as it
tracks towards the eastern Great Lakes with 850mb winds near the
max of climatology over the Arrowhead. Given the strong pressure
gradient and the signal for enhanced low level winds there is
growing concern for dangerous wind gusts out of the north
beginning Friday and lingering into Saturday. This leads to
several concerns, both white out conditions from falling snow and
possible lake shore flooding along portions of the South Shore.
While the Euro has been very consistent and in good agreement with
the Canadian model the GFS in recent runs is starting to come into
alignment with the other two. The bulk of the snowfall from the
current data we have available looks to be most impactful for NW
WI. However, such a sudden shift in forecast probabilities should
be taken with a grain of salt due to lack of consistency and no
upper air sampling of the system just yet. For now, even the 25th
percentile suggests a Winter Storm Warning may be needed for NW
WI. Given the projected speed of the system, impacts will most
likely linger into Christmas Eve, especially for the South Shore.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022
Snow showers will continue this evening before tapering off
heading into the early morning hours. These snow showers will
bring IFR or lower VSBYs at times over the next few hours with
MVFR or lower CIGs. The low ceilings look to persist through the
night and for much of tomorrow, but may scatter out for a time,
especially at BRD and HYR. Snow tonight of 1 to 3 inches will be
possible and snow will be light and fluffy.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022
A clipper system is moving across the Upper Midwest this afternoon
and will exit to the east late tonight. Light snowfall will
accompany this system. Winds initially are light across the region,
however they will turn to out of the southwest behind the clipper
and pick up in speed. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued
beginning tonight and expands through tomorrow for the increased
winds and some waves.
While it remains a ways out. There is a signal for an anomalous low
to increase winds out of the north beginning Thursday. Gale force
winds and possibly stronger may impact the region Friday into
Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -2 4 -13 3 / 100 0 10 70
INL -2 4 -17 -3 / 100 10 10 50
BRD -7 0 -13 1 / 80 0 20 80
HYR -3 7 -13 7 / 100 0 0 70
ASX 2 7 -7 9 / 100 10 10 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday
morning for WIZ001>004-006>009.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday
morning for MNZ011-012-019>021-035>038.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ012-020-
021.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday for
LSZ121-146>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday
night for LSZ140>143.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM to 11 PM CST Tuesday for LSZ144-
145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolfe
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Britt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
518 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022
Largely dry conditions were observed across our region this
afternoon, under cloudy skies. There has been some light snow fall
just west of our forecast area in Waterloo and Ottumwa, which has
caused some reduced visibilities. The Iowa 511 website doesn`t show
any hazardous road conditions at this point, but visibilities of 2
to 5 miles have been observed. We will need to watch this snow as it
will gradually diminish the dry air in the lower levels and reach
the surface in our region. Temperatures varied quite a bit across
the region, with temperatures around 20 degrees to the north with
lower 30s to the southwest.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022
Key Message...
1) Light precipitation will move across the northern portions of the
area this evening into Tuesday morning. Light snow and freezing
drizzle will be possible, which could cause some slippery conditions
on area roadways.
A northern stream shortwave trough will be passing along the far
northern Upper Midwest this evening through the overnight hours
tonight. This wave will help usher in a cold front across central
Iowa this evening into the overnight hours into our region,
mainly impacting east-central and northeastern Iowa into
northwestern Illinois. Models are in good agreement with progging
some light precipitation along the front. There is some
uncertainty regarding the precipitation type as both the NAM and
RAP model soundings indicate a saturated dendritic growth zone
initially, but as we head into the overnight hours, there will be
a transition to a mix of or all freezing drizzle with the snow as
we begin to lose ice crystals aloft, leaving a deep saturated
layer in the lower levels of the atmosphere of around 6 to 8 kft
in depth. We do expect some light icing with the freezing drizzle,
so some slippery stretches on area roadways, bridges, and
overpasses are expected. With this hazardous travel expected, we
have issued a Special Weather Statement for areas along and north
of Highway 92.
As we go into the daylight hours Tuesday, drier air will filter in
along the front, which should diminish any lingering light snow
and/or freezing drizzle. There may be some lingering slippery road
conditions during the Tuesday morning commute, but things will
improve as we go into the afternoon hours. Tuesday high temperatures
will range only from the middle teens to the northwest to the lower
30s to the southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022
Key Messages:
1) A strong winter storm is geared to impact the region. At this
time, storm track is the biggest concern. This storm has the
potential to bring possible blizzard conditions, impacting holiday
travel.
2) Arctic air spills into the region with this storm system,
bringing bitter cold temperatures throughout the area. Wind chill
values between 20 to 30 degrees below will be possible, or colder.
Thus, cold headlines will be possible by week`s end.
Mid to Late Week Storm...
Winter arrives mid-late week, and the weather outside may be
frightful. By the end of the week, we may end up with plowable snow
and near/ongoing blizzard conditions. One thing that we have high
confidence on is the bitter cold temperatures that infiltrate the
region by late week, with wind chill values well into the negatives.
This incoming winter storm continues to pose a forecast challenge.
So, bear with us while we fine-tune the forecast.
We are starting to gain some clarity on the strong storm system set
to impact the Midwest. The main story that we are discussing is, a
strong bout of energy emerges off the northern Rockies and the
trough of low pressure deepens significantly. As this wave moves
over the Rockies and into the Plains, a strong surface low pressure
system will develop. This southern bout of energy is forecast to
phase with a northern source of energy. Thus, a stronger system will
develop. Long term guidance seems to favor this low pressure system
"bombing out", which is a 24mb drop in pressure in 24 hours. Thus,
if this happens, we are talking about a very strong storm. The track
continues to give a little uncertainty, but guidance is starting to
hone in on the track being somewhere through IL or IN. At this
point, even the GFS/GEFS have trended westward in track over the
last 48 hours. One thing to keep in mind is that the GFS has been
very aggressive in snow amounts. We have strayed away from what the
GFS deterministic run is outputting, as it is the maximum (by a lot)
when compared to the GEFS ensemble members.
To be upfront, snow accumulation is still an uncertain topic.
Although, after looking at deterministic/ensemble guidance, it does
seem clear that we will see some form of measurable snow. Much of
guidance favors at least 3 inches. Model soundings favor a deep
layer of dendritic snowfall, which can yield SLRs upwards to 20:1.
At the least, guidance favors at least 3 inches. Our current "rough"
range on snowfall is between 5-10 inches of snow. Again, this will
change as more guidance comes in, but this is a good starting point
for personal decision making. Along those lines, the winds will also
pose a large threat, reducing visibility to near/less than a 1/4
mile and making it difficult to accurately measure snow.
If we get a surface low that tracks more west (towards our forecast
area), we will be dealing with heavier snow accumulations and
possible blizzard conditions. If we get a more eastern track, then
we can be dealing with less snow, but the winds will remain gusty.
The gradient between this low pressure system and the high pressure
moving in behind it will be around 100mb. This is a very strong
gradient and will move into the area Thursday and last through much
of Saturday, leading to gusty gradient winds. Current guidance
favors frequent gusts between 35-50 mph. With strong winds and
falling snow, visibilities may drop and make travel very difficult
(just in time for holiday travel). Blizzard conditions will be
possible. Thus, travel in this time period may not be advised. If
you can travel prior to Thursday, or after Saturday, that will be
the safest. The more snow that we get, the worse the conditions
will be on the roads.
In the wake of this storm, we are left with bitter cold. An arctic
airmass moves into the region, leading to daytime temperatures in
the single digits and nighttime temperatures below zero. Not only
will it be cold, but it will also be windy, especially Friday. As
the storm system slowly exits, a strong pressure gradient will
still be nearby, leading to gusty gradient winds. Thus, we will
see wind chills well into the negatives. Currently, we are seeing
the potential for wind chills as low as 30-35 below! With high
confidence on the cold, headlines may be needed by the end of the
week.
With the potential for a winter storm midweek and very cold
temperatures moving into the area after, it is best to be prepared
now and keep an eye on our forecast. The holidays are quickly
approaching and holiday travel is expected in this time period,
but may not be advised if everything comes together. Thus, be
weather ready!
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022
A weak area of snow will move east into our area during the mid
evening to early morning hours, as a cold front moves through the
region. A gradual lowering of cigs to MVFR and possibly higher IFR
is expected along the front, with improving conditions to VFR
after it passes by in the morning Tuesday. Some light snow or
possibly light freezing drizzle may occur tonight, just ahead of
the front.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through late Friday
night for Benton-Buchanan-Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-
Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-
Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.
IL...Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through late Friday
night for Bureau-Carroll-Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo
Daviess-McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-
Warren-Whiteside.
MO...Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through late Friday
night for Clark-Scotland.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Schultz
SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Ervin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
845 PM MST Mon Dec 19 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM MST Mon Dec 19 2022
At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis
shows the CWA having a westerly flow aloft being just northwest of a
trough base over southern NM. Current observations and satellite
imagery show mostly sunny skies with dry conditions while some low
clouds move out of the Hill City area. Models forecast the axis of
the trough passing over the CWA during the evening hours and leaving
a west-northwesterly flow over the CWA going through the night. At
the surface, dry conditions are expected across the CWA with
variable winds around 5 to 10 kts. Monday`s overnight lows look to
be between 0 and 10 degrees with minimum wind chill values in the
lower positive single digits to the upper negative single digits.
For Tuesday, forecast guidance shows the CWA continuing to have a
west-northwesterly flow through the entire day with a strong upper
air jet streak entering the Pacific Northwest by the overnight
hours. At the surface, dry conditions look to continue across the
CWA with southerly to easterly winds throughout the day between 5
and 15 kts. Models also show low clouds possibly developing over a
good portion of the CWA during the morning hours. Not enough
confidence to add patchy fog in the CWA during the morning though
the RAP model does hint at the possibility in the KS and NE
counties. Daytime highs for Tuesday look to be in the middle 20s to
lower 40s while overnight lows look to be in the middle single
digits to middle teens.
On Wednesday, models show the nose of the upper air jet streak
moving down just west of the CWA during the day as a trough forms in
the central CONUS with the CWA being under its axis by the nighttime
hours. At the surface, models continue to show the arctic cold front
passing through the CWA during the evening hours. With this front,
models are showing some pretty large pressure increases across the
region (possibly around +30-40mb through the entire day) causing
stronger winds than what the NBM had loaded in. With collaboration
between neighbors, did blend the winds towards the NBM 90th
percentile. Chances for snow are expected along with the front
which will bring some very good chances for blowing snow during
the evening hours. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued in areas
where better chances of blowing snow reducing visibility are
expected going through the night and intro Thursday. Current
snowfall totals look to be range from less than an inch to around
2-3 inches after adjusting snowfall ratios towards the WPCGuide in
collaboration with neighbors as the NBM ratios appeared to be
low. There may be a slight chance for some areas of freezing
precipitation in the afternoon and evening hours before
precipitation turns to all snow. Daytime highs on Wednesday range
between the lower 30s and middle 40s. Extremely cold overnight
temperatures ranging between the lower negative teens and the
lower negative 20s continue to be expected overnight with life
threatening wind chills down to a chilling -50 degrees. There is
good confidence that the Wind Chill Watch will be upgraded to a
Wind Chill Warning in a future forecast. Continued messaging as
these are extremely dangerous conditions and the public should
prepare now.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM MST Mon Dec 19 2022
Main story in the long term period continues to be the Arctic airmass
bringing frigid temperatures Thursday and Friday, followed by a warming
trend which puts temperatures above normal by the latter half of the
weekend.
At 12Z Thursday, an upper-level low is centered over eastern North
Dakota/central Manitoba and an approx. 1055-1065mb surface high is in
place over western Montana. 500mb winds shift from westerly to
northwesterly and increase in magnitude, in excess of 100kts by 00-06Z
Friday on the backside of the trough.
Following passage of the surface front Wednesday evening, very cold
temperatures are expected Thursday morning into Friday. Combined with
north-northwesterly winds continuing to gust in excess of 30 mph (50+
mph at times), minimum wind chill temperatures reach -40s and -50s.
Anyone caught with inadequate shelter/protection from the cold for even
a few minutes would be susceptible to cold-related illnesses, which can
be life-threatening. From Thursday morning to Friday morning, wind
chills are expected to remain colder than 30 below zero with actual
high temperatures on Thursday not expected to climb above zero -
current forecast temperatures will test the December 22nd record low
max for Goodland and come close to the record low max for McCook.
Ridging will begin to build into the area Friday. An upper-level
shortwave trough moves southeastward towards CO/NM/Southwest KS and the
OK/TX Panhandles Friday evening/Friday night. Winds will begin to relax
with retreat of the upper low. High temperatures on Friday reach the
upper-single digits to mid-teens.
On Saturday, we`ll warm into the upper-teens to low-30s. Christmas Day
and Monday post-Christmas will be noticeably warmer, reaching the 40s
and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 845 PM MST Mon Dec 19 2022
KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light and
variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 15z. From
16z-22z, a south wind gusting up to 20kts is expected. fROM
23Z-01Z, a southeast wind around 11kts is expected. After 02z,
southeast winds increase slightly to around 13kts.
KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light and
variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 18z before
establishing a direction from the east at speeds up to 11kts from
19z through the rest of the taf period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning
for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through late
Thursday night for KSZ002>004-014>016.
CO...Wind Chill Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning
for COZ090>092.
NE...Wind Chill Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning
for NEZ079>081.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday
night for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99