Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/16/22

National Weather Service Albany NY
918 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low will approach from the Delmarva Region tonight bringing wet snow to the most of the region with rain mixing with snow from Albany south and east especially in the Hudson River Valley. The snow will be heavy at times north and west of the Capital Region and over the higher terrain tonight into tomorrow morning. The coastal low will move near eastern Long Island by Friday afternoon, and then move east of Cape Cod by Saturday morning into the afternoon with the snow tapering off. Rain will mix with snow in parts of the Hudson River Valley and south of the Mass Pike on Friday before changing back to snow. It will be cold in the wake of the system for the upcoming weekend with lake effect snow for the western Adirondacks. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Eastern Albany and southern Washington County were added to the Winter Storm Warning until 10 am EST Saturday that includes the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region, northern Capital Region, Mohawk Valley, Helderbergs, Schoharie Valley and the eastern Catskills... Eastern Columbia County was added to the Winter Storm Warning from 7 pm tonight to 10 am EST Saturday for southern VT, the Berkshires, northern Litchfield County CT and the northern Taconics of NY... Eastern Dutchess County in the southern Taconics was added to the advisory that includes eastern Ulster, eastern Greene and western Rensselaer Counties that is in effect until 7 am EST Saturday... Leading edge of waves of snow hitting a wall of drier air but the drier air is retreating. Areas where precipitation is very light are seeing light rain and sleet and isolated pockets of freezing sprinkles or drizzle where precipitation is very light and temperatures are around freezing. Areas seeing the more intense precipitation are seeing wet bulbing that is cooling low levels resulting in snow. One wave of more intense precipitation is tracking into our region and will track east and northeast through the early morning hours, bringing an inch or two of snow in some places and a wet and slushy inch or less in valleys. NY Mesonet observations showing an inch or two with the band of snow in higher elevations. Mainly rain in the mid Hudson Valley. NY Mesonet profiler at KALB showing a warm layer just above the surface, which is consistent with the rain sprinkles and sleet we have been seeing so far in the valleys around the Capital Region. The Helderbergs, eastern Catskills and Schoharie area have received the most snow so far, around a couple of inches. We will have to see if more waves of higher intensity precipitation form in central NY/PA later but just spotty and scattered precipitation seen in central NY/PA. Again, dustings to around an inch through this evening in valleys north of the mid Hudson Valley and maybe 2 or 3 inches in higher peaks of the eastern Catskills. Some rain mixing in through parts of the Mid Hudson Valley. Temperatures should hold steady in many areas through tonight or drop a degree or two where precipitation is heaviest and wet bulb processes occur. Just minor adjustments to temperatures and timing of snow through tonight. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A narrow 500 hPa ridge continues to shift east of New England with a coastal low pressure system on the eastern flank of the broad longwave trough over the eastern CONUS with a closed/cutoff mid and upper low over the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Region early tonight. The primary low pressure system to this Miller Type B system remains occluded over southern MN/southwest WI. The area of upper level diffluence aloft ahead of the secondary coastal low tracking northeast from the NC/VA coastal border had over running pcpn developing south and west of the Capital Region. The coastal low will continue to deepen and intensify as it moves northeast tonight. The cyclone will be near the left front quadrant or cyclonic exit region of the H250 jet streak of 125 kts over the Mid Atlantic States overnight, and the poleward jet entrance region of the oceanic blocking low will be moving down stream. The isentropic lift will be increasing on the 285K/290K surfaces with the better upper level dynamics overnight. Divergence enhances aloft in advance of the jet streak. High pressure remains anchored near northern Quebec funneling cold air southward. The H850 LLJ from the east to southeast will increase to 35 to 50 kts advecting in plenty of Gulf and Atlantic moisture. PWATS will run +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal based on the NAEFS and -u wind anomalies /easterlies/ will be 2 to 4 STDEVS above normal. The east/southeast flow will cause some downsloping issues for the Hudson River Valley tonight, but will provide strong upslope conditions along the eastern slopes of the western New England higher terrain, southern Adirondacks and eastern Catskills. A burst of snow is possible even in the Hudson River Valley due to the wet bulb and dynamic cooling. The latest 12Z HREFs do show very high probabilities of 1"/hr rates for the higher terrain of the eastern Catskills, and eastern/southern Adirondacks, Berkshires, and southern Greens. This storm will have a big elevation dependency and sharp gradients in the snowfall are possible. Initially, some indications are for a possible laterally translating snow band per the CSTAR research late tonight. The soundings are isothermal and we are expecting mainly a snow and a rain/snow mix with this storm. We went towards the colder 10 percent side of the NBM guidance for temps. BUFKIT profiles continue to show good dendritic growth/pcpn efficiency especially from Albany north and west with the strong omega/upward vertical motion. The low to mid level FGEN also increases in the 850-700 hPa layer on the NAM/GFS from the I-90 corridor south and east between 06Z-12Z. Snow to liquid ratios will be in the 6-10:1 range, so we are expecting a heavy wet snow. Snowfall amounts in the Hudson River Valley may only range from 1-4" by daybreak FRI, but over the higher terrain 6-12" and the west-central Mohawk Valley is possible with some amounts over a foot in the high peaks of the eastern Catskills and the eastern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Portions of the Litchfield Hills may have 3-6", as well as the northern Capital Region. Some impacts are likely with the morning commute. Rain is expected to mix with snow and possibly change over to all rain in the mid Hudson River Valley and even the eastern Capital Region due to the down sloping winds from the east to southeast at 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-40 mph over the southern Greens, Berkshires and Taconics. Lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s from wet bulb cooling and temps will steady or rise in the moderate to heavy pcpn event for some locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A High Impact Winter Storm continues Friday into Saturday morning with the headlines remaining in place for most of eastern NY and western New England. Tomorrow...the heavy wet snow continues as the coastal low moves northeast from southern NJ to near eastern Long Island by the late afternoon. A dry slot to system coupled with the downsloping may curtail the pcpn in the Hudson River Valley allowing the thermal profiles for rain briefly especially south and east of Albany. However, strong QG lift will continue north/northwest to the deepening cyclone for periods of wet hvy snow to continue west of the Hudson River Valley and over the northern Berkshires, and southern Green`s. The upslope flow will shift to the east to northeast with the wave reaching eastern Long Island. Snowfall rates an inch or two an hour will continue continue for portions the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills and southern Greens. The precipitation should turn back over to snow the Hudson River Valley as we enter the deformation zone to the coastal wave late in the day into the early evening. The 3-km NAM and HRRR shows potential intersection with the DGZ once again as it lowers in height based on the BUFKIT profiles.Heavy wet snow will continue over the higher terrain. Sharp snowfall accum gradients will persist in eastern Albany County and this is why it was upgraded to a warning. We have to monitor western Rensselaer where we have a and advisory. Southern Washington County should turn back over to snow late in the day and this is why we increased the snow amounts to 5-9 inches through the overnight period. Some locations in the higher terrain may approach 15-20 inches before nightfall. Highs will only be in the upper 20s to lower mid 30s over the hills and mtns, and mid and upper 30s in the valley areas. Fri night...The coastal low deepens and intensifies to around 990 hPa as it approaches Cape Cod and moves east to northeast of the Gulf of Maine. The forecast area will be in the mid and upper level deformation zone and most, if not all the pcpn will change back over to snow. Widespread snow accums are possible. The snow should continue to pile up over the higher terrain, and this is where the Taconics could see heavy snow. We were not confident western Dutchess county would reach advisory levels or southern Litchfield County where we have only 1-3 or 1-4". Snow rates may exceed three quarters of an inch to an inch an hour at times again. Some locations in the eastern Catskills, southern Adirondacks, and southern Greens, and northern Berkshires could end up to 18-30". Some downed tree limbs or power outages may occur with the heaviest wet snow. Locations in the western- central Mohawk valley 10-20" and portions of the Lake George Region, and the northern Capital Region 7-15" or 8-16". Albany is tricky but a storm total 5-9" is possible with greater totals to the west. We will have to monitor if a pivoting snow band forms near western New England, as the H700 low closes off. Stay tuned to updates with this challenging storm system., Lows fall back into the 20s to lower 30s with the winds increasing from the west to northwest. Total storm liquid equivalent will range from 1.25-2.50" with this event. Saturday-Saturday Night...Lingering west-northwest upslope snowfall may persist over the western Adirondacks, and southern Greens early Saturday morning for some light snow accumulations. The next issue will be lake effect snowfall developing downwind of Lake Ontario Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Some light to moderate snow accums will be possible for the western Adirondacks, otherwise it will be cold and mainly dry across most of the forecast area. We may need headlines for the western Adirondacks for the lake effect later depending on the inland event of the banding and amounts. Highs Saturday will run below a little below normal with mid and upper 30s in the lower elevations and upper 20s to lower 30s over the mtns. Lows Sat night in the teens and lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Following our Friday - Saturday winter storm, expect a long duration lake effect snow event for the western Adirondacks with some upslope snow showers for southern VT and the northern Taconics Sunday through Monday. In fact, a multi-lake connection may develop resulting in enhanced banding and snowfall rates Sunday night into Monday. After a brief dry break on Tuesday, an arctic boundary may lead snow showers or even snow squalls on Wednesday. Read on for details. The main highlight of the Sunday to Monday period will be lake effect snow showers the will develop downstream of Lake Ontario. This will occur in response to the closed parent cyclone from the Upper Midwest tracking eastward over the Great Lakes which results in persistent cold air advection over the lake. Initial west- southwesterly flow will direct the lake effect band over northern Herkimer County early on Sunday but as the parent cyclone weakens and broadens, flow should back to the west and enhance the cold air advection over the long fetch of the lake. This will enhance the lake effect banding and help direct the band further inland and more into central Herkimer County. Westerly flow continues into Sunday night and even shifts to the west-northwest as the parent cyclone tracks into the North Country. Guidance suggests this wind regime may invoke a multi-lake connection as the west-northwest flow and cold air advection tracks over the Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario. This would again enhance snowfall rates and the intensity of the lake effect band. Additional shortwaves could rotate around the parent cyclone heading into Monday which could lead to a wind shift to the northwest and therefore redirect the lake effect band further south, approaching the Mohawk Valley by Monday evening. High pressure finally builds into the Northeast by Tuesday which should provide enough subsidence to end the lake effect snow. Expect dry conditions for the entire area Tuesday before an arctic cold front tracks eastward into our region on Wednesday. The sharp thermal gradient and influx of arctic air combined with increasing vorticity advection from the incoming shortwave could lead to snow showers or even snow squalls. We will keep an eye on the potential for snow squalls and message accordingly if confidence increases. Temperatures this weekend and into early next week will be seasonably chilly with daytime highs in the low to mid 30s with overnight lows in the teens and 20s. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR ceilings at POU and PSF and VFR ceilings at ALB and GFL will persist tonight ahead of the main area of snow that will overspread the region from 01 UTC to 04 UTC. While marginal temperatures at POU may support rain initially, ALB, GFL and PSF will likely begin as snow given colder temperatures. Snow will result in MVFR visibility and IFR ceilings with periods of IFR visibility possible overnight during times of moderate snowfall. Best window of opportunity for moderate snowfall is 06 to 11 UTC. During the day tomorrow, IFR ceilings will persist at PSF while GFL, ALB and POU could improve to MVFR if precipitation turns lighter, mainly after 15 UTC until 20 - 22 UTC. As precip turns lighter, snow may mix with or even turn to plain rain. During any mix or rain, visibilities should improve to MVFR. After 21-22 UTC, colder air infiltrates the area resulting in a changeover back to snow and may become moderate at times. This would likely result in a return to IFR visibility and ceilings. Northeast to easterly winds tonight will be sustained near 5-10kts with strongest winds at PSF. LLWS shear is possible at POU as the winds at 2kft strengthens to 40kts. PSF turns breezy tomorrow with sustained easterly winds rising to 10 - 18kts with gusts up to 25kts. The other terminal will observe weaker northeasterly winds ranging 5 - 9kts. Outlook... Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for CTZ001. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>052-054-058-061-063-082>084. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ053-059- 060-064-066. MA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Gant/Wasula NEAR TERM...NAS/Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...Speciale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1056 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Coastal low pressure moves north toward southern New England tonight with rain and high-elevation snow through Friday. Coastal low pressure then shifts eastward into Saturday afternoon with improving conditions. Dry and blustery conditions Sunday through Tuesday with near to below normal temperatures in this period. While there is greater uncertainty in the weather pattern for mid next week, below normal temperatures appear favored. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 1030 PM Update... Have increased precipitation chances especially across eastern areas where ocean effect rain showers are a bit more widespread than previous forecast indicated. Did lower temps a bit toward the HREF/HRRR guidance across the higher terrain based on observations. Rest of the forecast is on track. 630 PM Update: Current regional radar mosaic shows some 15-25 dbZ radar returns associated with warm-frontal precip shield but llvl dry air still holding precip at bay; still have to go back to POU before any precip is being reported specific to the approaching synoptic-scale system. ENE maritime flow is however producing spotty light showers or drizzle across NE thru E`rn MA. RAP- based model soundings suggest column not saturating up enough for another couple hrs; incorporated the bias-corrected HRRR for PoP to slow timing down. This resulted in no appreciable change to rain or elevational-band-dependent snow forecast. Expect negligible hourly temperature changes with any cooling offset by increasing moisture and warm thermal advection. Otherwise no significant change needed attm. Previous discussion: Highlights... * Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory are in effect as of 7pm Thursday for east slopes of the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills respectively. Surface low over the Carolinas moves north over the waters of the Mid-Atlantic, before reaching southern New England on late Friday morning. Showers expected overnight as a surface trough extends northward from the low into the northeast. The latest regional radar composite have showers as far northeast as the PA-NJ border with NY. While there are echos further northeast, there remains a layer of drier air near the surface with a T/Td of 6 and 8 degrees. Showers should begin to overspread southern New England between 03z and 06z as the atmosphere saturates. The biggest question, where will the snow accumulate? The greatest confidence for significant snow likely to accumulate for those areas at and above 1,000 feet, places such as Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills. Elsewhere there will be a cold steady rain. 925mb and 850mb flow is out of the east, which will keep the much of southern New England relatively mild for mid December. But, it is the easterly flow that will enhance snowfall, especially the east slopes of the Berkshires. Between 06z and 10z, HREF highlights the Berkshires with a 30 to 50 percent chance of snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour! This will make any travel difficult. Snow to liquid ratio is low given the setup, generally 7-9:1. Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory are in effect as of 7pm Thursday for east slopes of the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills respectively. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Highlights * Heavy wet snow continues for western MA and northern Worcester Hills, highest snowfall expected in far western MA. * Wind Advisory for gusty easterly winds for eastern MA and southern RI. Friday: Wind driven rain and heavy wet snow are the primary threats for Friday as a surface low strengthens off the coast of southern New England. First, lets discuss the snow. HREF continues to show a signal for heavy snowfall across the Berkshires, with 10 to 40 percent chance for snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour between 15z and 20s. Winds are blowing at 925mb and 850mb enhancing the upslope potential, giving 12 to 18 inches of heavy wet snow across the Berkshires with locally higher amounts of 18+ inches for the northern Berkshires along the Vermont border (ending 18z Saturday). Given the SLR are 7-9:1 this will be heavy, power outages are possible. Lesser snow amounts are expected for the northern hills of Worcester county as there will be warmer air at the surface to contend with. Snowfall for much of Worcester County comes late Friday night and early Saturday morning as the storm exits the region. As for the winds, the 925mb/850mb low is centered just off the south coast with winds aloft 40 to 50 knots. Not out of the question there are gusts for the immediate east coast/south coast of MA and southern RI (including the islands), gusts between 45 to 50 mph are likely. Temperatures remain well above freezing in all of the metros; BOS, PVD, BDL, and ORH. This will limit any snowfall accumulations during the day, but some light snow is likely Friday night as the storm pulls east and exits the region. Friday Night: Ongoing 998 mb cyclone SE of Long Island early Fri evening will continue to slowly meander NE through Cape Cod and move more slowly NNE just east of Mass Bay by Sat AM. Ongoing higher-elevation accumulating wet snow will continue across the Berkshires, though as colder air advection cools the column, another period of lighter-accumulating wet snow will resume across the hills in northern Worcester County overnight. An additional 2 to 5 inches of new snow anticipated across the east slopes of the Berkshires through 12z Sat, with up to a couple inches in the same timeframe for portions of northern Worcester and northwest Middlesex Counties. This colder air advection to gradually transition plain rain over to a mix of rain and wet snow in the lower elevations in the interior part of MA, CT and western RI (west of I-495/I-95), with only slushy coatings. Light rains to turn lighter/more intermittent across southeastern RI/southeast MA as coastal low moves NE and dryslot moves in. East-coastal strong E to NE wind gusts to have eased across most of eastern and southeast MA, but will have continued 35 to 45 mph NE gusts across Boston northward to the North Shore. Wind gusts across the Islands will however begin to increase again from the WNW as coastal low moves north of Cape Cod to around 35 to 40 mph. Gradual/slow fall in temps given cloud cover and winds in low-mid 30s interior MA and CT and upper 30s-mid 40s eastern MA and RI. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights... * Precip ends Sat AM as coastal low pulls away into the Atlc waters. * Drier with near to below normal temps Sun thru Tues. * More uncertainty in weather pattern beyond Wed but below normal temps favored for mid-late week. Details: Slow-moving low pressure then pulls away into the eastern waters with better cold air advection on NW winds during the day on Sat. Minor/additional wrap-around moisture will continue to impact the hilly terrain in the Berkshires and northern hills in Worcester County and into northeast MA. Additional snow accumulation in the Berks and northern Worcester County a coating to an inch thru Sat morning. NW winds will increase to around 10 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Some sun will bring highs to the mid 30s to mid 40s but the winds will make it feel cooler than that. Given active weather in the near and short term periods, didn`t spend much time looking at the extended forecast period. Tendency toward seasonal to below avg temps in a generally dry period Sat night thru Tues. Forecast guidance then differs beyond Wed regarding a possible cold frontal passage around Wed - GFS is quite robust showing modified Arctic air behind this front but given a systemic GFS cold bias in the extended range the magnitude of the colder air it is depicting is in some question. However the international guidance shows cooling temps into midweek so temperatures likely will continue to downturn into midweek. Even larger uncertainty in ensembles and 12z guidance regarding the late-week weather pattern/possible storminess; something we`ll be certainly closely watching but solution spread remains way too large to delineate any specifics at this point. Thus opted for a broad brushed chance PoP beyond Wed night. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z TAF Update: Tonight: High confidence in trends, moderate on exact timing. MVFR ceilings generally common as steadier warm-frontal precip advances 03-05z BAF-BDL and 06-10z ORH-PVD westward to BOS. Advance of precip should bring about lowering and onset of IFR type ceilings. Generally 4-6 SM -RA/RA for most TAFs but may mix with SN at BAF (BAF runways mainly wet). ENE to E winds at 10-20 kts with gusts of 20-40 kts. Expect the highest gusts across the south coast and higher terrain. Friday...Moderate confidence. IFR with localized LIFR. Elevational snow continues with a cold rain elsewhere. Winds out of the E/ENE at 15-25 kts and gusts of 25-45 kts. Should see the highest gusts across the coastal plain. Saturday...Moderate confidence. MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Sunday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 330 PM Update: Overall high confidence. Increasing easterly gusts and building and increasingly rough seas will be the trend into the gale level tonight through much of Fri. Gale Warnings remain in effect for all waters through Fri evening (00z Sat), then become more confined to the eastern and northeast waters thru Sat AM. Offshore seas build to 8-11 ft by early Fri AM and continue to build to 11-15 ft offshore. Fri evening, while winds should briefly drop into the SCA level as directions turn from NE to NW, increasing gusts into the Gale level may develop into the Fri overnight hrs/early Sat period into the southern waters. While not reflected in the forecast yet given active gale warnings, may need to consider gale headlines on portions of the southern waters starting overnight Fri nite/early Sat. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Local rough seas. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for MAZ002-008- 009. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MAZ003-004. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for MAZ007-014>016- 019-021-022. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for MAZ020-023-024. RI...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for RIZ005>008. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ230>232-250-251-254. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ233>235-237-255-256. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ236. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Gaucher NEAR TERM...BL/Loconto/Gaucher SHORT TERM...Loconto/Gaucher LONG TERM...Loconto AVIATION...Loconto/Gaucher MARINE...Loconto/Gaucher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
934 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the Upper Midwest gradually shifts eastward through Saturday with a surface trough linger across the central Great Lakes. High pressure builds overhead early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 930 pm update... We updated the hourly POPs through 12z in the morning to better reflect with the latest trends with the HRRR and current radar. The hourly POPs were adjusted slightly lower for the overnight across far NEOH and NWPA. 630 pm update... The near term forecast tonight into tomorrow looks on track with no significant or impactful changes needed at this time. We are seeing the occluded front show up fairly well on the radar this evening near CLE due southward with a very thin line of heavier showers. This front will continue to track eastward and a decrease in POPs will follow behind this passage. Previous discussion... Occluded frontal boundary dissipating as it drifts eastward this evening. Much of the region near and east of the Mid-Ohio region eastward into western PA should see variable amounts of drizzle through the evening. There are a couple pieces of better lift that move across the region so a few passing showers are anticipated. During the overnight hours we may start to see some snow mix in with the drizzle and passing showers. No accumulations are anticipated. Winds have decreased with the weakening surface pressure gradient across NW PA. Gusts may still reach 30 knots or so but are not expected to increase so we will cancel the Wind Advisory a couple hours early. Cooler air gradually drifts into the area Friday with highs dipping back into the 30`s. The upper level low remains in the vicinity of the CWA so there will be some general weak lift. There could be just enough jet energy to enhance this lift that moves overhead with a few passing rain/snow showers possible Friday afternoon. No snow accumulation is expected. Lake effect snow develops over the lake into NY Friday night. We will need to monitor it closely but it looks like it remains offshore through the night. However there still are chances of snow with light accumulations possible near the lakeshore of Erie County, PA. Lows dip into the 20`s at most locations. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper level closed low over the Central Great Lakes will move to the eastern Great Lakes through Saturday night before continuing east towards Quebec/New England. The airmass will be cold enough with sufficient moisture for lake effect snow. However, flow through the column will be primarily out of the southwest on Saturday with lake effect snow bands focused out over Lake Erie into western New York. Despite heavier lake effect snow bands being focused primarily offshore, models are in fairly good agreement that mid-level moisture will rotate eastward into the forecast area through the afternoon. Given the deeper moisture and broad cyclonic flow, have added a chance of snow showers to much of the forecast area. Most areas away from Lake Erie will see little to no accumulation with high temperatures in the lower 30s. As the upper level low shifts eastward on Saturday night, the trough over Lake Erie will shift closer to shore. Some snow shower activity is expected to return to lakeshore areas Saturday night into Sunday but moisture depth and inversion heights will also be on the decrease by Sunday. Expecting sufficient depth to remain for snow showers with higher confidence across Erie County PA. At this point accumulations looks to be light to moderate for Erie County with lesser amounts elsewhere although band placement will need to be monitored over the weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A ridge of high pressure will expand eastward across the Ohio Valley on Monday which should back low level flow to southerly and push any lingering lake effect snow showers over Lake Erie. The second half of Monday and Monday night should be dry before the next upper level trough approaches for mid-week. Models indicate low pressure will move through the Central Great Lakes Tuesday evening, pulling a strong cold front eastward across the area into Wednesday. Some differences remain among the models as to when the true arctic airmass is expected to arrive. Could see this front trending slower but models are in agreement that a longwave trough and below normal airmass will set up across the eastern United States towards the end of the week. Confidence is high in below normal temperatures with lower confidence in precipitation potential. The last two cycles of the ECMWF have been showing synoptic snow possible on Thursday while the 12Z GFS favors a system tracking up the East Coast. Although we will have to monitor model trends as we watch this potential storm track, lake effect snows will become likely as an arctic airmass arrives. Timing and favored areas for possible lake effect snows will also be monitored into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Overall MVFR to lower end MVFR ceilings will be expected for the duration of the next 24 hours for TAFs. There are some pockets of IFR ceilings where are impacting CLE, CAK, and YNG through about 4z this evening. Those ceilings should stabilize around 1500 to 2000 feet later tonight. Scattered light rain showers and light drizzle continue to move across NEOH and NWPA. We have the mention of VCSH for those brief showers. Winds will become more from the southwest in the wake of the occluded frontal boundary crossing the area. Still seeing localized stronger gusts up to 25 knots from the southeast at KERI through about 3z. South to southwest winds decrease to 5 to 12 knots overnight and remain that way into Friday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periods of snow Saturday through Monday, mainly across NE OH into NW PA. && .MARINE... Winds will decrease into tonight as the pressure gradient weakens and a cold front sweeps east across Lake Erie. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for locations east of Willowick until 7 PM and the expiration time appears to be on track. Winds will veer to southwesterly overnight and be in the 15-20 knot range through Friday. Winds are expected to increase Friday night as surface low pressure moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed again for areas east of Avon as this low pressure system makes slow progress towards Quebec and colder air arrives across Lake Erie. The potential for Small Craft conditions exists west of Avon but is lower. Marine conditions are expected to improve by Monday as a ridge of high pressure builds east through the Ohio Valley. Low pressure will pass north of Lake Erie on Tuesday pulling a strong cold front east across Lake Erie into Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...Griffin/MM SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...KEC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
937 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure developing off the Mid Atlantic moves along the New England coast to bring the first big winter storm of the season. While temperatures falling to around freezing tonight, precipitation should fall hard enough to result in mostly snow across the area. Mixing is expected to be an issue across southeastern New Hampshire and coastal western Maine. Across the interior, snowfall of 6 inches or more is expected, with lighter amounts due to mixing along the coast. The storm will linger and continue to bring periods of snow to parts of the forecast area through late Saturday night. Building high pressure brings quieter weather for most of the workweek, and then another coastal storm is possible around the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 935 PM Update... Latest update was to increase pops for portions of central Maine as a few precipitation reports are coming in related to the low level maritime moisture within the northeast flow. This precipitation remains very light. 730 PM Update... Ocean effect rain showers continue to cross portions of far southwesternmost Maine and southeast this evening. Just received a spotter report from the Dover, Rochester area where the precipitation was mixing with snow when the shower increased in intensity. Mostly rain with some snow shower activity will continue across this region while we await the synoptically driven precipitation situated over eastern New York State. This precipitation will continue to have a difficult time making fast progress to the northeast as it encounters a very dry atmosphere over northern New England. The dry layer is evident in the 00Z GYX sounding which is present from about H8 and up. This dry air will also act to change some areas that are receiving rain, back to snow later tonight due to evaporational cooling as noted by the latest HRRR. Made only minor modifications to the near term portion of the forecast. Adjusted temperatures and dew points based on current observations. Prev Disc... High Impact Weather Potential: Snow overspreads interior New Hampshire after midnight with slick travel developing by daybreak. Pattern: Occluded and vertically stacked low is centered over Minnesota this afternoon with an occluded front arcing south and east across the Great Lakes...and the south and east into the Mid Atlantic with a pressure weakness over eastern VA/NC indicating the beginning of low pressure that will bring the first widespread winter storm to our region beginning late tonight. Precipitation band in the warm advection regime and along the moist southeasterly Jet at H8 is slowly advancing north and east with the high over low blocking pattern downstream over the Canadian maritimes slowly pushing east. Primary forecast concern will be on the arrival of this precipitation shield and what PTYPE it will take when it arrives. Through this Evening: Stratocu has enveloped most of the forecast area with top down saturation expected to continue to increase overall cloud cover. It will remain fairly mild through 7pm with temperatures around 30 in the mountains with mid to even upper 30s common to the south. Tonight: +DPVA arrives overnight with top down saturation allowing upstream band of precipitation to arrive after midnight. Moist easterly flow ahead of this feature will likely allow for a few rain/snow showers ahead of the main band which is just an expansion of what is already happening over the Gulf of Maine. SE NH should begin as rain with snow from EEN to CON and north with an inch or two possible by daybreak Friday. Further east across western Maine...precipitation of any significance will hold off until after daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED WINTER STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS.. High Impact Weather Potential: * Heavy Snow for all but far SE NH and the coast of ME from Portland South. Inland...totals well over one foot are possible...particularly for locations at elevation. * Snow will be heavy and wet just inland from the changeover line with the potential for power outages. * Wind Gusts will approach advisory criteria in the somewhat warmer air from Portland south to Seacoast NH. Pattern: Surface low track has trended further north over the past 24 hours but also a bit deeper...which helps hold the cold air in north of it/s eventual track. Consensus track moves from the SE Jersey coast around daybreak Friday north and east across southeastern MA Friday night while slowly deepening...with the low hesitating for a time east of Cape Ann before pushing east towards the Nova Scotia. H7 low tracks from southern New England ENE into Nova Scotia. Model Preferences: There is good agreement on the overall surface low evolution but have followed the EC/NAM3km/HRRR track more closely. Looking at upstream observations...the HRRR has been too warm with temperatures in the precipitation region and have tended to follow more closely the NAM 2m temperatures/dewpoints which has it/s biggest implications for the Maine coast...which as the deepening low arrives Friday afternoon/evening precipitation rates and ENE flow should bring the snow line rather close to the coast. PTYPE evolution: * Rain from ASH/MHT to the NH Seacoast through Friday night with a possible changeover towards daybreak Saturday. * Favoring all snow north of a EEN-CON-GYX-LEW-AUG line. * Between this line and the coast...precipitation will likely start as rain or a rain snow mix...and then transition to more snow by Friday late afternoon /after sunset/ as heavier precipitation rates arrive with snow continuing Friday night. QPF: What the event lacks in strong deepening of the surface low it makes up for in longevity with the eastward progression hesitating as the H5 low cuts off before the surface low then pulls east. The result is around 1" near the Canadian border with amounts increasing to around or a bit above 2" along the coast near where any mesoscale banding associated with the surface low will pivot before pulling east. Snowfall Rates: Without a rapidly deepening low...snowfall rates generally look to be moderate with HREF probs pretty meager on a signal for much above 1"/hr...centered on late Friday afternoon and the first half of Friday night. Light-moderate rates will likely be in place to begin the day Saturday...tapering off with time. Honestly...this is the biggest concern for areas with marginal temperatures seeing enough snow to warrant warning-headlines. Winds: While northeasterly winds will be gusty late Friday and Friday threat for winds over 40 mph will be coastal York and Rockingham were mixed layer is deepest. Confidence not high enough to issue advisories here with this package...and will let the overnight shift have another look. Winds where precipitation remains mostly snow will likely remain below 30 mph precluding significant additional wind-related impacts. Saturday-Saturday night: Expect robust snowfall to be ongoing across much of the area daybreak Saturday with rates starting to decrease in the afternoon. Daytime snowfall on Saturday will range from an inch or less over southern NH to as much as 4-6 inches over the western ME mountains. Headlines: Have issued a string of advisories for most of the coastal zones except coastal York/Rockingham counties where very little snow is expected. In the advisory area. For the advisory in NH...amounts are a bit on the low side...but with significant variation throughout the zones. From Portland north and east...can/t rule out these zones eventually needing warnings...but precipitation rates remain a bit questionable and do not have high enough confidence that we/ll see 6" amounts in this area. Further inland...8-14+ is looking likely with areas over 1000 feet likely to push the high end of this envelope and of course some mountain spots even higher. Biggest impact concern will be along the SEern edge of the warning where snowfall will be heavy and wet /ratios 5-8:1/ which...after accumulating 4-5" will be sufficient to start taking down tree limbs and causing power outages. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Overview... Light snow is likely to be ongoing Sunday morning across eastern and northern zones as this first storm system only gradually moves eastward. Breezy conditions are likely Monday through Wednesday as the system remains across the Canadian Maritimes, and high pressure gradually builds in from the west. With this flow pattern, seasonable temps are expected most of the week. A weak disturbance brings an increased chance of snow showers on Wednesday across northern areas. By late in the week, there is increasing potential that another large storm system could impact New England, with rain, snow, and wind possible. Details... The center of the low from the upcoming storm is expected to be near Nova Scotia by Sunday, but an elongated trough and ample moisture is likely to keep light snow ongoing across eastern areas and the mountains. Accumulations would likely be light on Sunday itself, and they would only be on top of the higher totals form the previous couple of days. Southern areas may see a few snow showers through the day, but otherwise mainly cloudy skies with highs in the 30s are expected. By Sunday night the system should be pulling away, with upslope snow showers gradually lessening in coverage into Monday. Northwesterly flow will bring some breezy conditions on Monday and Tuesday, but generally brighter conditions with seasonable temperatures are expected outside of the mountains. Scattered northwesterly upslope snow showers are possible into Tuesday. Another round of snow showers are possible late Tuesday night and Wednesday across northern areas as a shortwave passes through the area in the northwesterly flow pattern. Despite the persistent northwesterly flow, the ongoing blocking pattern across Greenland will continue to feed mild maritime air into the arctic air masses as they move southeastward into the area, resulting in an airmass with near normal temperatures. By Thursday and Thursday night, the ridge axis likely makes its closest pass to New England and offers the best chance for colder nighttime temperatures. While not overly impressive on their own, they do represent the antecedent airmass ahead of the next storm system. Another storm system has the potential to impact the area by the end of next week. While still roughly seven days away, there is a higher than usual level of confidence that the system will affect New England sometime in the Thursday night to Saturday timeframe. There is strong agreement among the global models on this, and there has been a relatively high level of run to run consistency with the system as well. What remains to be seen, of course, is what the track of this system will be. Both rain and snow are possible with this system, with the development and track of a secondary coastal low the main driver of this. Models are showing anything between and wind driven rain to all snow, so at this point in time we will continue to monitor the trends over the next few days for a better picture of the impacts. One factor with the storm late next week is that astronomical will be at their peak for the month, with any kind of onshore flow likely leading to impacts. These impacts will also be determined by the track and timing of the system. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term... Significant impacts to aviation interests are expected to develop through the next day or so, lasting through Friday and much of Saturday as a winter storm passes just offshore. Broken down by aspect... CEILINGS...MVFR CIGS are already filling in this afternoon in northeast flow. This trend will continue through the overnight with CIGS lowering to IFR in southern zones by around daybreak...perhaps a bit sooner with at KPWM, and perhaps for a brief time at KMHT/KCON as light showers develop. IFR CIGS are forecast to hold off until the mid-morning hours further north into KAUG, meanwhile over at KHIE mountains will likely block lower ceilings from filling in until steadier precipitation arrives... with MVFR CIGs developing by mid-morning, and IFR holding off until winds turn northerly on Saturday. IFR CIGs, at times LIFR in heavier precipitation, prevails into Saturday with modest improvement to MVFR for southern interior terminals by the end of the day, VFR for most places by Sunday morning... though there is more disagreement heading east with how quickly conditions will clear with this slow moving system. KHIE meanwhile will continue to experience low ceilings as flow transitions to the upslope variety into Saturday. PRECIPITATION/VSBY...The rain/snow line continues to be the most challenging portion of the forecast, especially in the vicinity of our busier terminals along the coast and in the southern interior. Before the primary swath of stratiform precipitation moves in... A few preceding light showers may develop and provide brief VSBY restrictions, mostly from SN where IFR is more likely at KPWM/KCON versus VFR/MVFR in RA at KMHT/KPSM after midnight tonight. Steadier SN/RA arrives in the few hours surrounding daybreak on Friday with IFR SN for all sites except for RA at KMHT/KPSM. KMHT and KPWM exhibit the highest degree of uncertainty WRT precip type through the period... with the current forecast depicting a change to rain at KPWM by around noon and riding the RA/SN line until Saturday morning when SN is expected. KMHT sees the transition from RA to SN late Friday night/early Saturday. Mainly light snow is expected through Saturday, tapering off from west to east through the day... but hanging on further east into Saturday night. WINDS/LLWS... Light ENErly winds today will strengthen through tomorrow, then turn northerly early Saturday morning... and eventually northwesterly late Saturday and overnight. While the PGF alone will make for steady winds between 10-20 kts for most places... strongest at the coast... wind gusts will be fairly limited over most of the interior, where prolonged easterly LLWS is more likely to occur, starting between midnight and dawn for KMHT/KCON/KLEB/KHIE, and lasting through Friday into Friday night before the LLJ responsible starts to pull away to the east. At the coast... wind gusts 35-40 kts will center on the Fri aftn and evening period, with a more brief period of LLWS as the core of the LLJ comes overhead. Wind gusts will very gradually diminish Friday night through Saturday, from east-to-west, falling below 20 kts over NH during the day and then over ME by the evening. Long Term...Light snow likely brings continued restrictions through midday Sunday across northern and eastern terminals, with MVFR to VFR ceilings likely elsewhere. Conditions gradually improve Sunday night, with mainly VFR to MVFR at times on Monday. HIE is likely to see more MVFR conditions Monday and Tuesday, along with scattered snow showers. Snow showers are possible on Wednesday across northern terminals, with improving conditions Wednesday night and Thursday. Rain or snow is then likely Thursday night and Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term...While a few gusts to storm force are possible over the outer waters...confidence in their longevity and location is not high enough to warrant a storm warning. Therefore...have transitioned to gales everywhere for the upcoming low pressure system...which will pass through the Gulf of Maine on Saturday with winds shifting northwesterly and slowly subsiding Saturday night. Long Term...SCA conditions continue on Sunday through Monday with northwesterly winds and residual elevated seas, and then gradually lower on Tuesday as northwesterly flow eases. High pressure gradually builds in through midweek. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Friday to midnight EST Saturday night for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-033. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to midnight EST Saturday night for MEZ024>028. NH...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Friday to midnight EST Saturday night for NHZ001-002-004. Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday for NHZ003-005>009-011-015. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday for NHZ010-012-013. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Clair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
858 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 .Forecast Update... Issued at 857 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 Radar trends suggest the light snow showers will be east of Interstate 65 shortly after 9 pm and east of central Indiana after 10 pm as upper wave around the base of southern Minnesota low ejects northeast across southern lower Michigan. Meanwhile, IR loop was showing a few breaks in the stratus were moving into the lower Wabash Valley, however stratus should mostly stay thick per upstream IR and moisture trapped beneath a temperature inversion around 4K feet per HRRR BUFKIT. This should keep temperatures from falling any lower than the upper 20s overnight. && .Short Term...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 253 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 * Cooler temperatures * Scattered snow showers and flurries today and tomorrow * Breezy at times Rest of Today Clouds have thickened across the region today, and will likely stick around through the short term thanks to the cool unstable air mass overhead. Enough instability may be realized today to generate a few snow showers or flurries. A vort max rotating around a big closed low to our north will provide enhanced lift to further aid in precip generation. Latest ACARS soundings out of IND show generally sub- freezing temperature profile above 1500 ft. With a fairly dry surface airmass in place, some of the precip may begin as a few rain drops. However, temperatures should evaporationally cool to near freezing which will change precip quickly to snow. Tonight Lingering snow showers or flurries will come to an end around midnight as the vort max lifts northward and instability wanes. Cloud cover should persist, but a few breaks could open up at times. Breaks in cloud cover are not currently expected to affect low temperatures all that much, as winds remain rather brisk during the overnight around 5-10 kts. Lows in the upper 20s are still in the forecast due to the robust CAA currently in place. Friday Tomorrow may end up being a carbon copy of today, weather-wise. Any breaks in the stratus deck will quickly fill in, with more snow showers possible during the late morning and afternoon hours. BUFKIT soundings show a fairly deep well-mixed layer with some weak instability. Of the Hi-res models, the HRRR is the most aggressive regarding instability with 30-50 J/kg CAPE in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere. While that`s not a lot in normal circumstances, in the winter it`s something to keep an eye on. Consequently, the HRRR is a bit more robust with snow shower development. The deeper mixed layer and instability may be enough to encourage momentum transfer to the surface after sunrise. Thankfully, the flow at the top of the PBL isn`t substantial (only around 35 kts within the 750-850mb layer). Accounting for some momentum loss as it mixes downward, peak gusts around 25 kts are expected at times. Winds should die down as the sun begins to set and the atmosphere stabilizes. Cold temperatures will persist due to the continued CAA, and highs should top out in the mid-30s. && .Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 253 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 Friday Night Through Saturday. Occasional flurries and light snow showers will continue Friday night into Saturday as the aforementioned strong upper level low pressure system continues to occlude and move into the Great Lakes region. This slow moving low pressure system will keep a fairly persistent forecast in place through Saturday with surface flow generally southwesterly while flow aloft is generally easterly to somewhat northeasterly. Areas of weak to moderate vorticity circling around the low will combine very steep lapse rates near the surface will allow for a return to flurries and light snow Saturday, especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Flurries will be most frequent across the northern counties where the upper level forcing will be stronger. Sunday Through Tuesday. The low will finally push away Sunday with zonal to slightly northwesterly flow aloft during the early work week. Temperatures will remain near to below normal with the lingering cold air aloft and lack of southerly surface flow. Another strong upper level closed low will move through Southern Canada Monday into Tuesday with the potential for light snow across the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. This all will be dependent on the strength of the upper level low which remains quite uncertain at this time. A stronger low would lead to stronger northwesterly flow which then increases the lapse rates and allows for a quick burst of snow. Wednesday and Thursday. The pattern will begin to shift going into Wednesday as the next major weather system approaches, but there remains a significant amount of uncertainty as to how and when this system will impact the area. Confidence is increasing that there will be accumulating snow going into Christmas across portions of the Midwest, but locations, timing, and amounts remain very uncertain. There will be a potential for pockets of more significant snow accumulations, but again it remains very uncertain as to where it would occur. Models continue to struggle with the development of this system as it dives into the area from the northwest and how the late Tuesday system may impact moisture availability. Continue to monitor the forecast this weekend into early next week as details begin to become more clear. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 532 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 Impacts: - Ceilings will teeter totter in between VFR and MVFR through the TAF period. - Scattered light snow showers or flurries possible tonight and Friday afternoon - Winds 210-240 degrees 9-13 knots with gusts to 20 plus knots after 17z Discussion: Upper disturbance will lift northeast across the Great Lakes tonight and more impulses will move northeast across northern Indiana Saturday afternoon around the base of an upper Wisconsin low. This will bring fringe VFR and MVFR flying conditions with visibilities reduced at times in snow showers, mainly Friday afternoon. Winds will be southwest and gust to over 20 knots Friday afternoon. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...MK Short Term...Eckhoff Long Term...White Aviation...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
711 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... After a very active day weather wise the atmosphere is stabilizing and drying out aloft as seen in water vapor imagery. Low level lift around the surface cold front will continue to produce clouds and scattered light rain for a few more hours especially in SW FL areas. Cooler and drier high pressure finally building into the region this evening for pleasant weather conditions overnight and Friday. Have updated PoP grids based on radar trends otherwise forecast on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Lingering MVFR stratus clouds and light rain with MVFR vsbys on post cold front NW-N winds to continue over the terminals through 04-06Z before clearing overnight. Fri a return to N winds and mostly clear VFR conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 A strong cold front continues to push eastward through Florida through the day. Showers and storms are currently pushing through the eastern gulf waters and parts of west central and southwest Florida. The latest radar is showing heavy downpours, frequent lightning as well as gusty winds over the water and moving ashore as the squall line moves eastward. A Tornado Watch continues for parts of west central and southwest Florida through 4 pm this afternoon. The latest HRRR guidance shows the main line of showers and storms pushing south and east of Tampa Bay through 3 pm and then pushing through SW Florida between 2 pm - 6 pm. Showers and storms should taper off late this evening into the overnight hours with partly cloudy skies expected on Friday. The front will be located over southern Florida by early Friday morning allowing for high pressure to ridge in from the northwest. Some residual clouds will be possible early Friday morning, but rain- free conditions are expected and will further clear out by Friday evening. Pleasant and much cooler weather expected Friday and Saturday. By late Saturday night, another area of low pressure and cold front moves across Florida bringing the next chance of showers and storms. This will be short-lived with clearing conditions by Sunday afternoon. This will bring another bigger cool down with the temps dropping 10-15 degrees below average. The coolest day will be on Sunday with daytime highs expected to top out only in the 50`s and 60`s and overnight lows on Sunday night dropping into the 30`s and 40`s. Pleasant and cool weather expected Sunday and Monday before the next area of low pressure moves through on Tuesday next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 Showers and storms continue to push through the eastern gulf waters and will taper down over the next few hours. The SCA has expired, but gusty winds will remain around 15-20 knots and seas around 4 to 7 feet through late this evening. Winds shift to the north behind the front and subside on Friday. Winds will then continue from the N/NE through the rest of the period with another round of showers and storms possible Saturday into Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 A cold front pushes through the region today producing showers and storms as well as gusty winds. Some high dispersions today with gusty winds in the vicinity of the cold front and with showers and thunderstorms moving through the area. Cooler and drier air moves into the area behind the front for the rest of the week, but humidities are expected to remain above critical levels. Dispersions will be fairly low for Friday, with generally below 30 expected. Another round of showers and storms possible on Saturday afternoon into Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 55 70 54 69 / 0 0 0 50 FMY 64 75 60 77 / 40 10 20 40 GIF 53 69 51 68 / 10 0 0 40 SRQ 57 71 54 71 / 10 0 10 50 BKV 47 69 44 68 / 0 0 0 50 SPG 58 68 57 68 / 10 0 10 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDavis DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close