Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/12/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
959 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of snow will continue at times tonight with the highest
accumulations across western MA and northern CT. Mainly dry and
chilly weather follows through the middle of the week. Confidence
increasing in an impactful storm late Thursday into Friday, but odds
favoring more rain that snow at least along the coastal plain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
955 PM update...
Heavier snow bands impacting areas from RI into south central
and western MA, with steady snow across CT. RAP shows area of
enhanced omega in the snow growth region from western MA through
CT and western RI, which lines up well with the heavier snow.
Snow intensity really drops off to the east and NE of this band
as best forcing will be aligned just ahead of the track of the
mid level low which slides across SW New Eng tonight.
The strongest omega will collapse toward south coast around
midnight before moving to the south. An additional 2 inches of
snow is possible across western and central MA through northern
CT and RI, with less than an inch additional accum across
eastern and NE MA.
We expanded the advisory to SW RI where 2-4" accum likely. Given
current accums, a few locations in the Berkshires will likely
see locally up to 8-9 inches and 6-7 inches in portions of
Hartford county before the snow tapers off after midnight. The
snow will linger the longest across southern RI. Given the snow
in western MA will be tapering off during the next few hours,
there is not much gained by upgrading headlines at this point.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
* Very cold tomorrow night
Tomorrow
Any lingering snow flurries come to an end early tomorrow morning as
an area of low-pressure departs over The Atlantic Waters. Northwest
flow behind the departing low will usher a cooler and drier air mass
over southern New England throughout the day tomorrow. As a result
we should see skies gradually clearing by early afternoon. Cloud
cover may linger a bit longer across southeastern MA, The Cape, and
Islands. Chilly afternoon for those across interior MA north of I-90
with highs struggling to get above freezing. Further south and along
the coastal plain temperatures will be relatively milder in the
upper 30s to low 40s.
Tomorrow Night
High pressure builds in from the west tomorrow night. Clear skies
and light winds are expected to support very efficient radiational
cooling through Tuesday morning. As a result we`ll experience some
rather frigid temperatures Tuesday morning across the interior with
lows well below 20 degrees likely. Coastal areas will stay a bit
more mild thanks to proximity to the relatively warmer ocean.
Nonetheless most areas will see temps drop to the mid 20s by Tuesday
morning. Mildest temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s across
the outer Cape.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...
* Mainly dry & cold Tue/Wed with highs in the 30s, but it will feel
colder Wed with windy conditions expected.
* Confidence increasing in a storm late Thu/Fri with odds favoring
more rain vs snow at least near the coast, but uncertainty remains
* Quieter weather probably returns in time for next weekend with
seasonable temperatures
Details...
Tuesday and Wednesday...
Mainly dry but cold weather will continue Tuesday and especially
Wednesday. Vigorous amplifying shortwave in the vicinity of the
Canadian Maritimes/Maine will drop south late Tue/Tue night and drag
a strong cold front across the region. The inverted trough swinging
through may allow for a few brief snow showers to clip the
coast...mainly towards the Cape/Islands Tue night. However...the
main story will be a reinforcing shot of cold weather along with
rather windy conditions on Wed.
High temps will mainly be in the 30s on both Tue & Wed. The big
difference on Wed will be the windy conditions, so it will feel
quite a bit colder. Overnight low temps will be mainly in the teens
to lower 20s.
Thursday and Friday...
Confidence is increasing for a storm to impact the region late Thu
into Fri. This is supported by most of the deterministic guidance
along with their ensembles. That being said; there is still a large
spread regarding potential strength and track of this system which
is also depicted by the ensemble guidance. Much of this will be
determined by the interaction of northern and southern stream
energy...which is too early to determine at this time.
Despite the uncertainty...there are ingredients in place that
currently favor more rain as opposed to snow at least towards the
coast. The surface high in eastern Canada appears too far north and
east for what we would normally want to see for a significant
snowstorm at least along the coastal plain. The surface track also
is trending towards a coastal hugger or even a bit of an inland
track. So again while nothing is set in stone...more rain is favored
as opposed to snow along the coastal plain. The greater risk for
significant snowfall will be further back into the interior...but
ptype issues may exist across our entire region.
Next Weekend...
Appears the brunt of the storm will have departed by the start of
next weekend. In the wake of that system...a blustery flow of
seasonably chilly air is expected with dry weather likely dominating.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High -
greater than 60 percent.
00Z TAF update...
Tonight...High Confidence in trends but moderate confidence in
timing.
IFR conditions continue for the first half of the
evening in snow which was reducing vsbys to generally 1 or 2
miles. We should see improvement to MVFR conditions from
northeast to southwest roughly in the 2z to 6z timeframe...but
perhaps an hour or two later across portions of CT and areas
near the south coast. This a result of drier air working in
from the north allowing the steady snow to taper off to more
scattered light snow showers/flurries. Ptype will be all snow
pretty much northwest of the Cape Cod Canal. A general 1 to 4
inches of snow is expected on untreated runways with the higher
amounts across our western terminals. N winds 5-15 knots.
Tomorrow...High Confidence
Lingering MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR by
lunchtime...except for the far southeast New England coast where
this process may take a bit longer. There may also be lingering
ocean enhanced scattered light rain/snow showers in the
morning. Otherwise...NNW winds 10 to 15 knots with a few gusts
near 25 knots along the coast.
Tomorrow Night...High Confidence
VFR. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.
KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in trends but moderate confidence in
timing.
KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in trends but moderate confidence in
timing.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Strong winds with
local gusts up to 40 kt. RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight
Area of low-pressure moves over the coastal waters overnight with
light to moderate rainfall. Winds continue to prevail out of the
east/northeast from 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts. Seas stay
elevated in the 6 to 8 foot range across the outer waters.
Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night
Moderate 15 to 20 knot winds become north/northwesterly tomorrow as
low-pressure exits to the east. Winds begin to gradually diminish
tomorrow night as high pressure builds in from the west. SCY
conditions persist through mid-week with seas above 5 feet.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Wednesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.
Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance
of rain.
Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain likely.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for MAZ002-003-
008>012.
RI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for RIZ001>004-
006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ231-232-250-
251-254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ233>235-237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/RM
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/RM
MARINE...Frank/RM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
550 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Sunday/
Issued at 404 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
Forecast Highlights:
- Widespread patchy to dense fog tonight into Monday
- Mainly Quiet Monday, then active late Monday through much of the
work week with a variety of p-types mainly Tuesday
- Winds continuing to look concerning Tuesday, especially north
- Snow Wednesday and Thursday, lighter QPF amounts though
Widespread stratus remained across the state into this afternoon,
though some areas of clearing have been noted over southern and
parts of western Iowa as seen from GOES Satellite Imagery. Despite a
rather prominent low level temperature inversion and low level
moisture, areas of dense fog lifted briefly but has since started to
return mainly over portions of western Iowa this afternoon.
Therefore after some coordination have included a Dense Fog Advisory
for the rest of the today into Monday morning out over
northwestern/western Iowa, though may have to expand further east
depending on trends. Overall, widespread patchy fog is expected into
the evening to Monday, though the HRRR as well as HREF guidance
depicts very low visibilities mainly along and west of I-35. There
is more uncertainty on the potential of dense widespread fog
potential as increasing southeasterly winds as the NBM has indicated
could limit this potential, though the GFS and RAP deterministic
models hold off on increasing winds until later Monday.
Unfortunately, low clouds will continue to filter in as winds shift
more southeasterly with some increasing moisture over the region.
Like yesterday, temperatures have struggled to increase today,
thanks to the cloud cover, with values ranging in the mid 20s to low
30s. Upper level ridging with a surface high pressure system will
continue to push southeast today, with light winds and temperatures
remaining roughly in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Have trended down
highs as a response, as heating potential for the rest of the
afternoon will be very limited. Overnight lows are expected to fall
into the 20s across the state.
Low level flow is expected to become more southerly Monday, with
increasing warm air advection and moisture flow as indicated by
increasing theta-e advection across much of Iowa, especially into
Monday evening. Temperatures will remain mild as highs make it into
the mid to upper 30s north and in the low to mid 30s south, though
with widespread clouds remaining overhead will need to potentially
lower values a bit given recent trends over the past few days. Quiet
weather is expected for much of the day as the upper level ridge
departs and pressure height falls begin to move into the region
ahead of the large weather system out west. Model guidance remains
consistent on overall track as it arrives into the Central
Plains. A large trough and mid level low pressure system
strengthens as it moves out of the western CONUS, developing into
a powerful surface low after experiencing strong lee cyclogenesis.
Initial onset of precipitation looks to begin late Monday into
Tuesday over western Iowa, before spreading east across the rest
of the state bringing widespread precipitation.
Precip types have remained to be one of the more challenging aspects
with this system, as models continue to vary on the evolution of p-
types late Monday through Tuesday morning. Though the NAM has let up
slightly on the colder solution and high freezing rain and hence ice
accumulations, it still is quite hot on totals over northern and
into north central Iowa Tuesday morning. Other deterministic models
like the GFS and Euro are warmer with overall little ice
accumulations largely remaining over northern Iowa under a tenth of
an inch while the rest of the state sees rain. Given the southeast
flow and WAA regime over the state, have continued to favor the
warmer p-types with rain for much of the state Tuesday while the
north sees some wintery mix with some ice accumulations. Will
continue to closely monitor these details over upcoming forecast
packages. Rain accumulations overall look to range around a half
inch to inch, especially west through the day. Winds continue to
increasingly look concerning, especially over northern Iowa as NBM
guidance shows 20 to 25 mph winds over the north while slower
further south, and gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range.
By Wednesday as the deformation zone of the low moves into southern
Minnesota into the northern half of Iowa, snow will likely impact
the area throughout the day. There is more consistency however with
drying across central into southern Iowa as a dry slot moves through
the state, so there may be a break in any precipitation concerns
elsewhere. Expect to see lows in the 20s to low 30s and highs in
the mid 30s west and into the 40s further east. Light snow by
Thursday into Friday is looking more likely and more widespread
across the state, though with limited moisture suggested from
guidance would expect lighter accumulations, though further north
could see a few inches. These details will largely depend on the
track and evolution of the system over the week, as well as the
blocking of another larger system rotating southward through the
far northeastern CONUS slowing the movement of the low overall. By
Friday, activity slows with dry conditions eventually ending for
all, with cooler and mainly quiet weather for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening/
Issued at 545 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
Stratus and fog remain the primary aviation concerns through the
period. Where stratus is, cigs should lower to IFR/LIFR overnight
while fog development is possible in the clear areas. Cigs and
vsbys should begin to improve during the day Monday but cigs
likely will remain at MVFR at best for most sites.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for IAZ004-015-023-033-
034-044>046-057-058-070.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Donavon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
511 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
The latest sfc analysis was indicating a ridge of high pressure
progressing eastward acrs the region with light and variable winds,
while return flow and a warm front was organizing up the plains.
Aloft, sharp lobe of short wave ridging was adjusting eastward acrs
the MO RVR Valley and western MN. Inversion trapped stratocu has
held on thick in many areas, but a few breaks noted on Vis
satellite loop west of the MS RVR, and a bigger clearing hole has
occurred acrs the southwestern DVN CWA. Further west/upstream, a
large upper trof/low was seen on the current water vapor loop
rolling into northern CA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
Tonight...Main challenge tonight will be tricky cloud cover fcst and
potential fog development. Sub-inversion east-southeast flow will
look to undercut the west-northwesterlies further aloft and slosh
the stratus off to the east back acrs the area where there has been
some clearing or breaks. Plus re-enforce any deck still maintaining.
But if some breaks or clearing can maintain under subsident upper
ridge axis passing overhead, some areas or patchy fog may develop
tonight as light winds become east-southeast with some convergent
swaths. This combo of clear patches and convergent sfc flow more
likely west of the MS RVR into west central IL and have added at
least patchy fog wording into these areas, with some locally dense
possible. Will bank on subsidence fields and shallow moisture depth
to prevent any drizzle or freezing drizzle to occur, but the fog
itself may deposit on elevated sfc`s if it can get established. More
of a widespread fog occurrence looks more likley acrs portions of
central into western IA in southeasterly BL moisture fetch. Low temps
tonight could be quite variable depending on cloud cover and clear
patches, ranging from down in the 20s to low to mid 30s where low
level cloud blanket maintains.
Monday...Large/deep inversion gets even more enhanced by backing
flow aloft in the H85 to H6+ MB layer, and concern continues for
this feature to keep trapping clouds and some fog acrs the area.
But slow moving omega upper ridge and it`s associated subsidence
fields will still be acrs the area most of the day, which could
create some breaks in the cloud cover or expand ones already
occurring. Mixing southeasterly sfc winds of 10-15 mph and some
breaks could make the fcst highs in the upper 30s to low 40s a few
degrees too cool, but have sided with the 50 percentile NBM blend as
a happy medium. ..12..
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
Key Messages
1. Long term will be active as broad cyclonic flow and
a series of waves will drive the weather.
2. Wintry mix changing to all rain with strong winds expected
Tuesday into Wednesday.
3. Sporadic chances for rain/snow showers through the rest of the
week as upper level low locks in place overhead.
Discussion:
Active upper level flow through the long term period. A long wave
trof will slowly lumber east through the period as southwest flow
aloft begins to impinge on the area early in the period. This trof
soon closes off and fills in. Before this happens a warm front and
precip will move into the area Tuesday into Wednesday. The rest of
the week this low slowly moves east as a series of vort maxes
rotate around it. This low is slow to move out of the area and
will affect us into next weekend if not longer.
Main forecast challenge is with the system Tuesday into Wednesday.
Guidance has continued a slowing progression for pops. Most of the
12z guidance keeps our area mainly dry through 15z Tuesday. The 12z
ECM came in a little faster. As a result, have cut pops back but
kept schc pops a little further east than blended QPF would suggest
to keep that chance going. Also went to 3hr pop windows to better
time the arrival of the pops. While most of this will be rain the
onset of precip could have some mixed precip.
This should be a top down saturation event with the warm front
moving into the area. Different models, with different timing of ice
introduction and sfc temps continues to lead to a difficult onset
ptype forecast. NBM has ra/sn as dominant but cant rule out pl and
fzra. The RAP/NAM continue to have less ice so more FZRA, which is
notable in longer range HRRR runs. While this is def a
possibility, I think the longer onset is pushed off the more this
becomes a sn/ra onset issue. FZRA would be an issue if we speed up
onset of pops to before sunrise and before temps increase. At this
time do not think this is the likely forecast. That said, it still
remains in the plausible realm and as such have kept fzra probs but
capped them at schc. Any impacts from fzra should be short lived as
temps climb above freezing quickly. It does look like blended
forecast has highs/low for Tues-Wed that are 5-6 degrees
different from hourly temps. Did match the highs to be represent
the hourly temps during this time.
Wind will remain an issue Tuesday into Wednesday. While the earlier
GEFS and ECMWFens kept sustained wind probs at 20kts or less, gusts
could easily get into the 40-45 range. That said, I think the
warmer we get, the better the mixing and better the chance for winds
near wind adv criteria. This also looks to be a failure point for
us getting strong wind gusts/adv level wind gusts. This will need
to be looked at by later shifts.
After this, it does seem we will see showers and some snow through
the end of the week. Ensemble forecasts struggle to have much snow
accum with many of the prob for 1 inch accum under 50%. This seems
to be more nuisance stuff. That said, any change in vort max
structure could make this change.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 505 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows more widespread
clearing near KBRL and patchy clearing near KCID, with
widespread stratus and MVFR ceilings elsewhere including at all
the terminals. A loop shows the stratus actually working back
westward, and so with nightfall and lack of strong subsidence I
don`t foresee much improvement, and thus anticipate MVFR ceilings
into Monday with some areas of IFR ceilings with BL cooling later
tonight. Forecast soundings show stronger winds developing Monday
with deeper mixing, and the hope is that this will foster more of
the breaks and a return to VFR conditions. Light and variable
winds will become E/SE at around 10 kts on Monday with some gusts
to 20 kts possible Monday PM.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...McClure
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
536 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
...Aviation Update...
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
Key Messages:
* Dense fog and patchy drizzle expected tonight into Monday
morning. Temperatures may initially be near freezing, leading
to isolated slick spots on roads.
* Thunderstorms expected Monday night into Tuesday. Some of these
may be severe.
* Snow creeps into the area on the backside of the system late
Tuesday through Wednesday.
* A cold pattern is expected through the end of the year.
Details:
Skies are clear across the area with southeast surface winds
gradually increasing as our next storm system deepens over the
western CONUS. These winds will continue to advect low-level
moisture into the area tonight, and it appears likely that dense
fog will develop late tonight into Monday morning. The HRRR/RAP
have been very consistently showing low visibility, and the SREF
is actually showing 100 percent probabilities of visibility less
than 1 mile. As such, we decided to go ahead and issue a dense fog
advisory until noon Monday. In addition to the fog, model
soundings and QPF output indicate the potential for light, patchy
drizzle as well Monday morning. Temperatures will be on an
increasing trend in the early morning, but may initially be near
freezing as this fog and drizzle develops. Therefore, some slick
spots on roads are possible for the Monday morning
commute...mainly north of I-80.
The main story on Monday is the threat for thunderstorms. Clouds
will stick around through the daytime, and a few showers cannot be
ruled out through the afternoon. But the main chance for
thunderstorms arrives late in the evening (mainly after 9pm) as
stronger forcing from the upper low pushes into the area. At first
glance, the timing (and time of year) may lead one to believe
that the severe threat is negligible, but the strong dynamic lift
coupled with abundant shear will be sufficient for at least a few
strong updrafts through the late overnight hours. In fact, the 18Z
HRRR is indicating the potential for supercell structures
developing over northwest Kansas and approaching our forecast area
after midnight.
The stacked surface/upper low pushes into Nebraska on Tuesday,
with continued chances for rain and thunderstorms. Rainfall totals
will be spotty, but could be quite beneficial, with some areas
receiving over 1.00" through midday Tuesday.
Colder air rushes in on the backside of the system late Tuesday.
The heaviest of the precipitation should be exit the area to the
east at this point, but some light snow may wrap in from the
northwest and continue off and on through Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Snow amounts are forecast to be light for most of the
area, with only our far western/northern zones possibly receiving
1 to 3 inches of snowfall. That said, any snow that does fall will
be accompanied by strong northwest winds with gusts of 40 to 50
MPH at times.
Some light snow may linger in our east/northeast on Thursday, but
the system finally moves out of the area Thursday night into
Friday. Dry conditions are expected to prevail Friday and
Saturday, with only low chances for light snow next Sunday. But it
will be cold! Highs in the 20s and single digit lows will be
common. Ensembles indicate that this cold pattern will continue
through Christmas and possibly even through the end of the year.
The EPS ensemble has -15 to -20 degree temperature anomalies for
December 20-24. Specifics on exactly how cold we get remain
uncertain, but that is an impressively cold signal for a 5 day
average at this lead time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 526 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
Will have VFR conditions continue for a few more hours this
evening, then things look to deteriorate as lower level moisture
and the potential for fog and drizzle increases with time. Models
are in fairly good agreement with lowering ceilings and
visibility, though the timing of the onset differs a bit. Once
those lowered conditions set in later this evening, expecting
little/if any change through the rest of the overnight hours and
into at least mid-late morning on Monday. May see some improvement
closer to midday-afternoon Monday, mainly with visibility...the
low sub-1000ft ceilings may stick around through the duration of
this TAF period. As far as winds go, direction remains
southeasterly through this period. Sustained speeds through the
overnight hours look to be around 15 MPH. From late morning
through the afternoon, speeds increase and gusts near 30 MPH will
be possible.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
934 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2022
One challenge for the night is whether we will see some patchy
flurries or drizzle/freezing drizzle. Overall this risk is low at
this time. A shallow cooler and moist airmass was filtering down
from the northeast. Cloud bases have mostly risen this evening.
But models are forecasting the low level convergence to increase
slightly late tonight. The DGZ remains unsaturated tonight.
Currently where several high res models suggest there is
precipitation upstream...observations indicate none reaching the
ground. Trends in the last couple of runs of the HRRR suggest the
precipitation potential is decreasing. Based on this we will
maintain a mostly dry night for the region...but will need to
monitor it closely.
Currently the surface temperatures were mostly above freezing. We
did raise the overnight lows slightly given the lack of falling
temperatures at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2022
...Rain/Mix Mid-week then turning Colder with Snow Showers...
Upper low pulling off to the east tonight with cyclonic flow on
the back side being replaced by shortwave ridging and dry weather
for early this week. Light showers in northwest flow off Lake
Michigan this afternoon will diminish this evening and move off to
the west as drier easterly flow develops with surface ridge axis
building over Lower Michigan.
Longwave trough across the West CONUS will result in lee
cyclogenesis that translates east and brings the chance for rain
and mixed precip on Wednesday changing to snow on Thursday. The
forecast problem is for timing of the precip onset on Wednesday
as dry easterly flow persists and moisture transport from the
Gulf may be interrupted by deep convection across the SE CONUS.
There could be virga rather than precip Wednesday morning but
eventually the column moistens and the hydrometeors reach the
ground.
The next question is what form of precip can be expected Wednesday
into Thursday. Thermal profiles suggest a mix at the onset across
at least the northeast half of the forecast area as wet bulb zero
contours indicate snow, sleet and freezing rain potential there.
We will have to fine tune p-type as we get closer to the event but
for now we will have mixed precip persisting northeast of a line
from Mount Pleasant to Cadillac for Wednesday into Wednesday
night.
Looks like the dry slot moves in Thursday morning with precip
tapering off to drizzle then colder air moving in Thursday night
and Friday. Lake effect snow showers develop Friday with westerly
flow allowing snow showers to reach well inland through Saturday.
Inversion heights are between 5 to 8 kft much of this time which
should allow for some snow accumulation as sfc air temps remain
below freezing over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 615 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2022
Low level moisture will remain abundant into Monday leading to
MVFR and IFR conditions at times. The main impact was currently
coming from lower ceilings...however fog should start to develop
and increase as well. The flow will become light easterly and
that may allow for slight drying Monday afternoon. This would
support conditions potentially improving to VFR. Any showers
should be confined to the area southwest of a KMKG to KAZO line
this evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2022
Offshore winds will increase early this week with gusts over 25
knots on Tuesday and potential for southeast gales to 35 knots by
Wednesday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
812 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
...Update for Dense Fog Tonight...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
-High confidence, high impact winter storm expected late Monday
through Wednesday with dangerous travel expected for portions of
western Nebraska due to heavy snow and strong winds.
-Blizzard conditions are likely for portions of northwest Nebraska
into the Sandhills with a sharp gradient in forecast snow amounts
expected.
-Ice accumulations prior to snowfall will further hamper travel and
lead to dangerous conditions across much of the area.
-Strong northwest winds with widespread gusts exceeding 45 mph and
potentially as high as 60 mph will lead to blowing snow concerns
regardless of accumulation amounts.
-Temperatures trend colder for mid-week and beyond with wind chill
values falling into the negative teens each morning Wednesday
through Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 812 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
The HREF, RAP, HRRR and a few other models show visibility falling
to near zero across much of wrn and ncntl Nebraska overnight and
Monday morning. The result of dry air aloft and rapid low level
moisture advection. The RAP and HRRR also show light QPF in some
areas suggesting at least the potential for freezing fog. This
could be freezing drizzle.
A forecast update is in place for dense fog and freezing fog from
midnight tonight to noon Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
Fairly quiet weather is expected over the next 18 to 24 hours.
Shortwave ridging ahead of the next upper-level disturbance will
limit sensible weather for the remainder of Sunday before abrupt
changes arrive early Monday morning. Constricting west to east
pressure gradient across the area will keep winds elevated as the
early stages of lee-cyclogenesis begin across the central High
Plains. The belt of stronger flow off the surface will be quick to
advect increasing low-level moisture into the area. This will come
in a couple waves, the first of which looks to be in the predawn
hours Monday. Widespread low-level stratus will filter in from the
south, leading to a dreary start to the day Monday. This increased
cloud cover and low-level moisture streaming in will help leading to
warming temperatures just prior to sunrise. Isentropic upglide in
the low-levels, particularly on the 280k surface for areas east of
Highway 83. Cannot rule out some patchy drizzle for these areas and
with surface temperatures near the freezing mark, will have to watch
for some frizzle. Thinking this threat is fairly limited and may
behave more as advection fog. Will keep little to no QPF for the
morning hours given little signal from the HREF outside the
operational NAM then tends to overdo QPF in these setups. As WAA
increases, however, expect deepening saturation and lift adequate to
lead to some afternoon rain chances. As dew points continue to rise,
LI values begin to turn negative by late evening across central
Kansas into portions of southern Nebraska. This will be sufficient
for some modest MUCAPE values to develop in the evening leading to
some threat for embedded thunderstorms. Will maintain the thunder
mention for this period and some pockets of heavier QPF given
expected convection. Overall trend has been to slow the arrival of
these convective elements which may support this threat lingering
into early Tuesday. This notion is supported by SREF probabilities
and extended CAMs, notably the NAM Nest. No severe is expected but
some moderate downpours are possible in the stronger cores with HREF
max ensemble values showing a few pockets of quarter inch per hour
rates.
Further west, sharp baroclinic zone will develop along an inverted
surface trough. This feature will drop south quickly through the
morning hours on Tuesday with precipitation in the form of snow from
onset across our far northwest zones but a mix of rain and freezing
rain invof this zone. Will keep a mention of ice for areas generally
between Highway 61 and Highway 183 as a result with some appreciable
ice accumulations nearing a tenth of an inch across the northern
half of the area. Convective rain overtop sub-freezing temperatures
at the surface would be the greatest concern given a strong low-
level warm nose. Will have to watch for increased icing amounts
based on this potential but thinking this would be the extreme case
given higher NBM Percentile groups show limited accumulations.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
A very dynamic storm system will unfold across the area beginning
Monday night into Tuesday morning. This slow storm system will
meander east through the middle of the week, with wintry impacts
lingering into Thursday. Winter Storm Watches have been expanded
further south and east with new Blizzard Warnings in effect for the
northwest Sandhills and northern Panhandle.
Upper-level pattern continues to showcase deepening h5 low as
longwave trough traverses the central Rockies. Height falls ahead of
this feature will overspread the area by early Tuesday morning.
Temperatures for the day will start off mild but begin falling
across much of the region by midday suggesting a non-diurnal
temperature trend and raw afternoon. Increasing upper-level
divergence within largely diffluent flow will support strong forcing
for ascent with lee-cyclogenesis taking place across eastern
Colorado. Strengthening low-level flow with constricting surface
pressure gradient will draw anomalous moisture into the area. EFI
table highlights multiple highly anomalous parameters through the
Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe, lending credence to the potential
for a significant storm system for the time of year. Surface low
will take shape and track east to northeast through Tuesday morning.
NAEFS output shows mean MSLP at climatological minimums with low
990s hPa central pressure. This low will track east-northeast into
south central Nebraska, putting much of the forecast area in the
northwest quadrant. Aforementioned upper-level dynamics will lead to
strong, vertically stacked system with h7 and h5 lows tracking into
central Nebraska. This puts the greatest backside convergence across
the Sandhills into southern South Dakota and it`s here that we`ll
see the greatest QPF amounts and resultant snowfall amounts.
Greatest fgen will occur through the day on Tuesday with decreasing
intensity by late in the day as the TROWAL looks to spread over the
area. Given strong forcing and anomalous moisture in the area, opted
to go heavy on the forecast liquid equivalent. NBM 4.1 50th
percentile for event liquid generally exceeds one inch across the
entirety of western and north central Nebraska with values
approaching 2" near the Nebraska/South Dakota border. Of course,
some of this may fall in the form of rain, snow, and/or ice. Even
so, with expect SLR ratios early on expected to be around 7-9:1 but
increasing to 13-15:1 by late in the event, expect a fairly
efficient snowfall though strong winds may lead to some dendrite
fracturing which could limit final SLRs somewhat. Even so, high QPF
and expected snow ptypes support heavy snow accumulations. Given a
small overlap and negative surface wet bulb temperatures and
positive h85 temperatures, expecting a fairly progressive buffer
zone of freezing rain between the rain and snow. Am not expecting
significant ice accumulations but with ice followed by snow...some
heavy...expecting very dangerous travel conditions. In total,
expecting 3 to 5 inches of snow near a Imperial to North Platte to
Butte line. Northwest of this line, expect 5 to 10 inches, with 10
to 18 inches and locally higher amounts for the northern half of
Sheridan and northwestern Cherry Counties. Ice accumulations will
likely remain at or below a tenth of an inch mainly between the
Highway 61 and Highway 183 corridors. With expected snow and strong
winds gusting 50 to 55 mph, whiteout conditions are likely within
the Blizzard Warning and are possible within much of the Winter
Storm Watch. Will need to monitor potential for expansion of
Blizzard Warning with later forecasts.
Lift will gradually weaken heading through the day Wednesday as the
surface low departs to the east and main h7 and h5 lows fill in.
Even so, wrap around precipitation will still work into the area
from the north. Have slowly decreasing PoPs from south to north
through the latter half of the day. Believe this has the potential
to see a quicker exit than currently forecast. For now, thinking any
additional precipitation on Wednesday will be fairly light with the
NBM 50th percentile showing only a few hundredths south of Highway 2
but closer to a quarter inch near the South Dakota border. Strong
winds persisting through the day will only continue the blowing snow
concerns though so expecting continued hazardous travel conditions
especially in areas that saw significant snowfall accumulations. EFI
values for winds are actually maximized for Wednesday versus Tuesday
which suggests the going forecast may not be aggressive enough but
winds exceeding 40 to 50 mph will be enough to prolong issues.
Accumulating precipitation will largely be done by late Thursday
into early Friday. Strong winds will continue with bufkit soundings
showing potential for gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range which may
continue some blowing snow concerns into the late week. Temperatures
Wednesday through Friday will remain cold with values only reaching
the 20s to low 30s and morning lows in the low teens and single
digits. Factoring in the winds, prolonged periods of sub-zero wind
chills are likely and some minimum values will fall into the
negative teens Thursday and Friday but look to remain short of Wind
Chill Advisory criteria for now.
Though upper-level low will depart to the east-northeast and keep
the area within northwesterly flow aloft, multiple embedded PV
anomalies will dive south across the northern and central High
Plains heading into the weekend. The strongest of these features
looks to affect the area sometime in the late Friday to early
Saturday timeframe, though model discrepancies limit confidence in
this. Will keep the low-end PoPs from the model blend in the
forecast but look for these to potentially be removed with later
forecasts. Overall the extended period looks to favor colder than
normal temperatures as northwesterly flow remains prevalent. Some
signals that an encroaching high pressure prior to Christmas may
bring a significant cold spell to much of the area. Ensemble
guidance hints at high temperatures falling into the single digits
with lows well below zero. Confidence regarding this is medium at
best but given support from multiple ensemble suites, will need to
be monitored.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
Low stratus and fog will move into the area overnight, leading to
widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs and visibilities for all area terminals.
The low stratus looks to persist through the entirety of the day
tomorrow, though visibilities are expected to somewhat improve
in the afternoon. This is ahead of an approaching storm system,
which could lead to increasing SHRA near the end of the valid
period. Winds remain out of the southeast through tomorrow
evening, at around 10 to 20kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Monday night to 6
AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday for NEZ004-094.
Dense Fog Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to noon
CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for NEZ005-023-024-035-036-057-058-069-
094.
Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late Wednesday
night for NEZ005>009-022>026-035>037-056>059-069.
Freezing Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
for NEZ008>010-025>029-037-038-059-070-071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...NMJ
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Brown
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
535 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
Through Monday night...
Key Message in the short term:
1. Areas of drizzle possible overnight into Monday AM near the
lake (temps to remain above freezing in those locales)
Expansive cloud cover and light northwesterly flow have held down
temperatures below 40 so far today making for another cloudy and
cool day across Chicagoland. Other than some patchy drizzle into
far northeastern Porter County, the rest of the area should stay
precip free through the rest of the afternoon and evening.
Widespread cloud cover continuing overnight will again limit our
cooling with temperatures remaining in the mid 30s in the Chicago
metro and near the lake with lower 30s expected further inland.
As winds begin to trend more north northeasterly this evening there
is the potential for more drizzle to push inland off the lake
after midnight tonight into portions of the Chicago metro,
especially for areas nearest the lake. The drizzle may persist
through the morning hours on Monday as well. Lake induced
equilibrium levels are fairly shallow suggesting the majority of
this is expected to be drizzle, but a few spotty showers cannot be
ruled out. Will also note that the HRRR is the most bullish with
QPF up to 0.05-0.10" with this activity. Temperatures near the
lake and where any precipitation falls are expected to remain
above freezing. Accordingly the concern for any icing remains low.
Further inland should remain mainly dry through the period,
though some patchy drizzle cannot be ruled out Monday morning.
Overall, tomorrow looks like a repeat of today with cool and
cloudy conditions and highs in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.
Petr
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022
Tuesday through Sunday...
The key weather messages through the end of the week are:
* Blustery conditions developing on Tuesday, with a potential for
stronger winds Tuesday night.
* Cold, soaking rainfall mainly Tuesday evening into Wednesday
* Some snow (showers) possible, mainly Thursday night into Friday.
* Colder into the upcoming weekend.
The potent upper trough currently digging across the Great Basin
will head eastward on Monday, with subsequent intense divergence
on the nose of a robust upper jet inducing lee cyclogenesis across
the central Great Plains. Model guidance remains in very good
agreement on the progression of salient large scale features, with
the deepening surface low slated to rapidly occlude by later
Tuesday and Tuesday night well to our west. As this occurs, it`ll
slingshot an appreciable low-level jet eastward across the region,
yielding an increase in gusty winds by Tuesday afternoon, but
moreso overnight into Wednesday. Forecast soundings suggest
vertical mixing will be greatly limited by a pre-existing
inversion and rapidly-saturating column. This suggests gusts
should stay just under Wind Advisory levels, with sporadic gusts
into the 35-40 mph range.
Guidance continues to indicate that much of Tuesday (if not all of
the daytime hours) will remain dry. Deeper saturation finally
moves in very late in the day and into the evening hours.
Widespread cold rain looks like a good bet through Tuesday night
into Wednesday as robust upper jet forcing arrives. Temperatures
will likely remain steady or slowly rise through the night, and
while they may be in the mid 30s across northern Illinois as
precipitation starts, no wintry precip types are expected with
full melting of hydrometeors due to a notable warm nose aloft.
Still unclear how much (if any) impact on rain totals we`ll see
from upstream convection, but the presence of some instability
aloft and decent large scale forcing suggests localized swaths of
amounts near 1"+ are possible through Wednesday afternoon.
Current indications are that the system`s dryslot will blast
overhead Wednesday morning and afternoon before the deeper cold
airmass arrives. Suppose a few elevated thunderstorms can`t be
discounted immediately ahead of the dryslot arrival, but this
would be brief as deeper saturation and any MUCAPE will be lost
very quickly. The ECMWF continues to show quite a bit more in the
way of elevated instability/steepened lapse rates and moisture
than other guidance which results in a second round of heavier
convectively-driven precipitation through Thursday morning. This
remains a bit of an outlier solution, with it mostly looking like
we`ll transition to either dry conditions or lingering patchy
drizzle through the night.
The colder airmass finally pushes into the region on Thursday.
Precipitation looks pretty inconsequential at this point through
the end of the week, although as we`ll likely eventually get into
a regime supportive of isolated to scattered snow showers,
possibly lingering into Saturday. Colder conditions will prevail
through the weekend, with highs only in the 20s to near 30
degrees.
Carlaw
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
MVFR ceilings are expected to persist through the forecast period
as moisture remains trapped under a 4kft inversion amid weak
flow. A weak boundary over Lake Michigan is expected to shift
westward across the Chicago metro late tonight into Monday
morning. Low-end MVFR ceilings and patchy -DZ are likely during
this time, with perhaps a brief period or two of IFR ceilings
around daybreak Monday.
Light winds around 5 knots will favor just east of north this
evening, though some variability between NNW and NE is expected.
winds will veer E late tonight and ESE by Monday afternoon,
remaining 10 knots or less through the period.
Kluber
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
942 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2022
No major changes are needed to the forecast. Rain has exited the
area as a front appears to have pushed south. We are starting to
see some clearing in SW VA and NE TN, and western portions of the
TN Valley, likely due to the N-NW downslope flow off the Plateau,
and some dry advection aloft behind the front. The models are
doing a pretty good job of picking up on this, especially the HRRR
and HREF. The forecast captures this clearing as well. Forecast
temps and dewpoints are all staying close to obs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2022
Key Messages:
1. Hope for sunlight on Monday and early Tuesday, then clouds
increase Tuesday afternoon.
2. Regardless of clouds, dry conditions expected Monday and Tuesday.
Discussion:
Visible satellite imagery paints the picture. Much of the eastern
and southeastern United States are beneath grey, overcast skies
again today. Models soundings show that the lowest 5,000 to 6,000 ft
of the atmosphere are saturated, and will remain that way until
later tonight. Visible and water vapor satellite imagery confirm the
location of an east-west H3 jet streak that will be shifting
eastward away from the Carolinas this evening. Some spotty drizzle
or even light rain will still be possible across the east TN
mountains and areas near the GA border, including our NC counties,
through late this evening. By 00z or shortly after, influence from
this jet streak should have waned enough that any drizzle or light
rain should come to an end for the remainder of the night.
For the overnight hours into Monday, a strong and very deep western
upper low will be digging south across Nevada and the four corners
region. Downstream, upper ridging will build over the Mississippi
river valley, with some cyclonic flow aloft lingering over the
southern Appalachian region into Monday afternoon. Models show low
level moisture thinning substantially overnight and on Monday
morning as surface high pressure builds in from the north and
heights begin to rise. Given the thinning seen on visible imagery
well to our north, the addition of rising heights aloft should allow
for plenty of sun to break out across the CWA tomorrow. It may be
midday or early afternoon before that occurs - a little slower than
perhaps previous runs would have suggested. However I do think that
sunny/clear skies are very likely tomorrow. A welcome change by many
I am sure.
Upper ridge moves overhead on Tuesday in advance of the western low
ejecting eastward from the southern Rockies into the plains. Likely
see additional sun early Tuesday, but high clouds should increase as
the day wears on, with low clouds moving back in during the
afternoon as southerly low level flow ramps up. Do not have any rain
chances in the forecast late Tuesday; the consensus is that precip
associated with that western low will hold off until the early parts
of the long term period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2022
Key Messages:
1. Numerous showers are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night
ahead of an approaching cold front. Rainfall totals of near or above
2" are possible in most areas.
2. Gusty winds are likely in the Tennessee mountains and adjacent
foothills Wednesday as well.
3. A transition to snow showers is expected in the mountains of
Tennessee and southwest North Carolina by late in the week with
flurries possible elsewhere. Temperatures will also be well-below
normal through the weekend with some places staying below freezing.
Tuesday Night through Thursday
At the start of the period, upper ridging will be in place ahead of
a deep trough and developing surface low just east of the Rockies.
This will be of focus heading into Wednesday morning as increased
upper jet dynamics and moisture advection move into the region ahead
of its associated frontal boundary. The latest deterministic and
ensemble guidance have suggested an overall increase in potential
rainfall totals due to better moisture and longer duration. The
slower trend for onset of precipitation has also continued as well
with only a minor change from the overnight shift.
With PWAT values of near 1.2" area-wide, this illustrates the extent
of available moisture as these values are above the 90th percentile
and near the daily max for this time of year. When combined with the
strong dynamics and ~50kt 850mb jet, there is definitely support for
totals of near or above 2" in many places as the latest GEFS and
deterministic guidance predicts. These values still don`t exceed 6-
hour flash flood guidance in most places, but the trend definitely
emphasizes the importance of keeping an eye on the forecast as
higher resolution models can view into this timeframe. This is also
considering the potential for repeated heavy rainfall in southern
portions of the area closer to the warm sector.
With the strong 850mb jet and MSLP gradient magnitude of 80+
micrometers/km over the mountains, potential for mountain wave
enhanced continues to be of focus, in addition to the locally heavy
rainfall. The main inhibiting factor for warning vs advisory-level
winds will be the strength of the 850mb jet as the surface low
itself will be stacked and far into the Great Plains. Overall,
messaging will be kept largely the same with a focus on these two
potential impacts. Some elevated instability is still suggested in
southern areas, but severe potential remains very low as the warm
sector/instability get cut off. With exiting of dynamics and
forcing, drier conditions will return by Thursday.
Friday through Sunday
By the end of the week, CAA behind the front will lead to a notable
cooling trend with temperatures going from above normal to far below
normal for the rest of the period. This will also come with deep
upper troughing and a strong (150+ kt) jet streak setting up
overhead. Wrap around moisture behind the front will keep chances
for precipitation in the forecast with a transition over to snow
showers as the layer cools into Friday. The more notable coverage
will be in the mountains as westerly flow of 25+ kts will help to
increase orographic lift. Right now, the latest GEFS mean suggests
60% or more probability for 1" of snowfall in the mountains, using
the dynamic ratio developed by WFO MPX. Through the rest of the
weekend, embedded shortwaves will move through with 850mb
temperatures persistently below -5 Celsius via ensemble means. The
nature of any additional systems, indicated with the GFS for example
and some GEFS members for example, remains uncertain. However, the
main message will be multiple days of well-below normal
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM EST Sun Dec 11 2022
Low cigs, mainly in the IFR/MVFR range, will persist at all sites
through the night. Not much change is expected to the current
conditions until after daybreak, when drier air is expected to
build into the area and help cigs rise and scatter through the
morning at TRI and TYS, and into the early afternoon at CHA. Lower
visibilities will be mainly associated with patchy drizzle, which
is expected mainly at TYS and CHA through the first few hours of
the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 57 42 55 / 10 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 55 36 57 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 40 54 35 56 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 50 31 54 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION...DGS