Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/04/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
435 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday evening) Issued at 1217 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 Latest RAP upper air analysis indicates zonal upper level flow is in place across the central CONUS, and short term guidance is in agreement this pattern will remain steadfast through the short term period. At the surface, high pressure behind yesterday`s frontal passage will move slowly east-southeast of southwest KS, resulting in a gradual wind shift to the south/south-southwest. No renewed lee cyclogenesis in eastern CO will promote only a weak pressure gradient across our area, so winds will be fairly muted by southwest KS standards. However, slight downsloping will help temperatures rebound into the low to mid 40s by mid-afternoon. Overnight Saturday, surface high pressure will continue to move away, allowing winds to weaken to nearly calm. This radiational cooling positive will be offset by abundant cloud cover, saving temperatures from bottoming out, and supporting lows in the low 20s near the I-70 corridor to the low 30s near the KS/OK border. Sunday will be another quiet day weather-wise across southwest KS, as weak winds are maintained within a largely nebulous surface pressure field. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy as weak upper level perturbations moving through the flow provide just enough synoptic-scale lift, so the increase in highs to the low/mid 50s is primarily the result of 850-mb temperatures increasing by around 5-7C, and secondarily owing to whatever solar insolation can be absorbed. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 244 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 Medium range guidance is in good agreement suggesting upper level zonal flow over the central CONUS will continue at the beginning of the long term period, although a strong upper level low centered well into Canada will send a cold front southward through the central plains during the day Monday. Post-frontal northerly surface winds will be anomalously weak, therefore limiting CAA and permitting the warming trend to continue for most, with afternoon highs on Monday ranging from the low 50s near Wakeeney/Hays to the low 60s along the KS/OK border. Cold air finally arrives Monday evening as guidance indicates 850-mb temperatures dropping notably through the overnight period, which will end the warming trend and support lows in the teens to upper 20s sunrise Tuesday. Tuesday and Wednesday, upper level flow will become southwesterly as an upper level shortwave trough moves eastward across the Intermountain West. Lee cyclogenesis will be slow to occur, leaving southwest KS within an indistinct surface pressure field and rendering winds weak. Increasing synoptic-scale ascent will also support increasing cloud cover, making for a couple dreary days with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures peaking in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Wednesday night into Thursday, the upper level shortwave will begin ejecting into the central plains, bringing with it a chance for precipitation. Like usual, medium range guidance is split, with the deterministic and ensemble ECMWF much more bullish with QPF than the GFS/GEFS. Tendency would be to lean towards the drier solution given that drought begets drought, but the low-end pops given by the NBM were conserved. Regardless, any precipitation will likely be light, totaling no more than a tenth or two. Otherwise, northwest winds will increase on the back side of the deepening surface low daytime Thursday, however the window will be short as the surface trough moves east- northeast. Temperatures will be fairly status quo, with afternoon highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. Friday through the end of the period, latest ensemble and deterministic guidance agrees a considerable upper level wave will move east through the western CONUS. Disagreement surrounding the spatiotemporal details of the wave do exist, however southwest KS can expect a rapid increase in southerly winds Friday as lee cyclogenesis occurs in eastern CO, followed by a strong cold frontal passage either Friday night or daytime Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 433 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022 VFR conditions throughout the entirety of the period for all TAF sites. South winds less than 12kts and ample high level clouds as well. No other weather elements are expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 28 54 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 28 54 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 33 56 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 31 55 34 60 / 10 0 0 0 HYS 24 52 28 49 / 0 0 0 0 P28 30 52 35 59 / 10 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Springer LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...Lowe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
437 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 Unsettled conditions will persist the latter half of the weekend and into the first half of the next week. The temperatures will be above the normal through the middle of next week before a cold front moves in overnight Wednesday to decrease the temperatures to below the normal on Thursday. The temperatures will be mild through much of next week as a series of systems moving through the area. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 215 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 Rain showers have finally started across most of the region as seen on radar. Water vapor satellite imagery shows more incoming moisture towards us. This morning`s sounding had PW around 0.45, and the latest model run indicates an increase in moisture to 0.9-1 inch this afternoon and evening. The majority of the moisture appears to be aloft as surface dewpoints are currently in the 30s with a possible increase into the upper 30s and lower 40s during the afternoon and evening hours. A lightning strike or two may be possible with this activity as there is some very marginal instability (MUCAPES up to 400 J/kg), but the possibility of this is more likely out west. We are pretty stable east of the Rio Grande. This activity will continue into the evening hours, especially out west as per the HREF members. The 12Z run of the HRRR showing the solution most similar to what is currently occurring. However, the slower movement than previously expected of the backdoor cold front is leading to lesser rainfall amounts. The Gila region is now forecasted to received up to an inch of rain through tomorrow night with greater amounts possible north of Grant county. The Sacramento Mountains and Sierra county will have amounts up to 0.50 inch, while the rest of the NM lowlands have amounts up to 0.25". Far west TX is still expected to receive the least amount of rain with amounts up to 0.1, but many areas in TX may not see a drop with the latest hi- res models and ensemble data. Tomorrow, we remain under the influence of this plume of moisture but the upper ridge in the Gulf of Mexico expands to the west which will shift the plume farther west, but still affecting mainly the western half of the CWA. Therefore, continue to expect more light rain showers with some pockets of moderate rain. Rain chances out east will be spotty at best east of the Rio Grande. However, we expect to continue seen low clouds over the region. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 215 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 A disturbance on Sunday night will bring additional showers across much of the Borderland. A broad subtropical ridge will be centered across eastern Mexico and western Gulf of Mexico while a trough of low pressure meanders across the Pacific West. With these two systems in place, low-level moisture has the ability to advect from off the Pacific and into the Southern Rockies. With the air advecting from the south and increased cloud coverage, the low temperatures will be well above the normal for this time of the year. A few leftover showers will be possible on Monday especially during the morning hours with divergence aloft. By the afternoon the clouds will decrease with the high temperatures continuing to be above the average. For Tuesday, the upper level trough will gradually deepen across the Pacific Southwest with its center across northern California. There is some uncertainty with the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models with regards to QPF. The GFS suggests that we will be dry on Tuesday while the ECMWF is suggesting a few showers across the Grant and Hudspeth counties with the rest of the area dry with clouds hovering all over the CWA. Due to this uncertainty, a slight chance for showers was introduced in the forecast for Tuesday afternoon across the aforementioned counties. Low level moisture could deepen on Tuesday night that could aide in a few showers as the trough across the Southwest gets closer to the area. The trough will provide good dynamics that will bring unsettled conditions overnight Tuesday night through Wednesday. The center of the upper trough will pass to the north of our area overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. A cold front will be associated with this system that will move through the area overnight Wednesday that will move out and push to the east by Thursday morning. A dry air mass will begin to move in behind this system and with a cool northwesterly airmass, the high temperatures will decrease 5 to 8 degrees cooler than what Wednesday`s temperatures will be. A shortwave ridge will build in behind this system that will bring quiet weather to our area during the day Thursday and Thursday evening. This ridge will begin to break down overnight Thursday into Friday morning as both a shortwave and a quasi-longwave trough across the Pacific West deepens. Some moisture could move across the far eastern CWA that will bring a slight chance for showers across the Hudsepth county by early Friday morning. The dry shortwave to our Southwest combined with the somewhat longwave trough across the Northwest will move across the Rockies on Saturday, which will bring some breezy winds on Saturday and another cold front overnight Saturday. Overall, unsettled conditions are expected through the middle of the week with drier and cooler weather the latter half of the week and into the first half of the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 432 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the period. However, MVFR conditions remain possible for KTCS due to SHRA. CIGS within SHRA could drop to 030-050 and VIS down to 3SM. All other terminals including KELP should remain rain free, isolated SHRA possible for KDMN over the next few hours. Winds will remain predominately light and VRB at 03-07 knots for all terminals through the evening and into the overnight hours. Skies will remain BKN/OVC100-200 throught the morning hours for all terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 Areas of light to moderate rain are expected to soak much of the fire zones through Sunday night, with the mountain zones apt to get the heaviest rainfall. Rainfall amounts in zone 110 will be between 0.75-1.10", while zone 113 gets up to 0.50". The lowlands will have rainfall amounts below 0.50". Another slight chance of rain Wednesday before drying period Thursday into next weekend. Monday looks to be breezy with west winds 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph in the mountains, otherwise no significant winds are expected. Min RHs: Lowlands 35-50% through Wednesday, and mountains 50-70% through Wednesday. Vent rates mostly through Sunday, improving to fair to good on Monday, and very good to excellent on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 49 70 54 71 / 20 0 30 10 Sierra Blanca 43 69 50 68 / 10 0 10 10 Las Cruces 44 65 49 68 / 20 10 40 10 Alamogordo 44 66 48 67 / 40 20 40 10 Cloudcroft 36 51 37 44 / 40 20 40 10 Truth or Consequences 46 62 47 66 / 70 40 30 0 Silver City 46 58 48 57 / 60 70 50 20 Deming 45 66 49 68 / 30 30 50 10 Lordsburg 46 64 49 64 / 40 70 60 20 West El Paso Metro 49 67 53 70 / 20 10 30 10 Dell City 41 67 48 71 / 10 0 20 0 Fort Hancock 45 74 51 74 / 10 0 10 10 Loma Linda 43 64 49 63 / 10 0 30 10 Fabens 46 71 52 72 / 10 0 20 10 Santa Teresa 45 66 50 68 / 20 10 40 10 White Sands HQ 48 66 53 68 / 20 10 40 10 Jornada Range 43 64 50 66 / 30 20 40 10 Hatch 45 66 50 68 / 40 20 40 10 Columbus 45 65 50 68 / 10 10 40 10 Orogrande 45 66 50 68 / 20 10 40 10 Mayhill 40 64 44 57 / 30 10 30 10 Mescalero 39 59 40 55 / 50 20 40 10 Timberon 37 58 40 54 / 30 10 40 10 Winston 43 58 44 59 / 80 60 30 10 Hillsboro 43 66 46 65 / 60 40 40 10 Spaceport 44 64 48 67 / 50 30 30 10 Lake Roberts 40 58 41 56 / 60 70 50 20 Hurley 45 64 47 63 / 50 60 50 10 Cliff 41 63 41 65 / 60 80 50 20 Mule Creek 44 55 44 58 / 80 90 50 20 Faywood 46 63 48 63 / 50 50 50 10 Animas 44 67 48 67 / 20 60 60 20 Hachita 43 66 48 67 / 20 30 50 10 Antelope Wells 43 71 48 67 / 10 30 50 20 Cloverdale 45 65 49 61 / 10 50 60 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29-Crespo-Jones LONG TERM....36-Texeira AVIATION...38-Rogers
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
129 PM PST Sat Dec 3 2022 ...Weekend Winter Storm Underway In The Sierra... .SYNOPSIS... A winter storm will continue to push into the area today, bringing copious amounts of snow to the mountains and rainfall for most population centers. Snow levels will fall tonight, bringing more widespread impacts to California and the Tahoe Basin for the next couple of days. The prolonged period of unsettled weather will continue for next week with temperatures remaining below average. && .SHORT TERM (Through Sunday Night)... As expected, precipitation has worked its way across Southern CA through the morning hours. With the southern trajectory of this moisture and half the area under a warm advection regime, much of the region`s (along/south of I-80) precip type is rain thus far. As of 11am PST, DOT webcams have shown periodic drops down to pass (Donner summit) level for snowfall. But, Colfax profiler data shows that a slight uptick in snow levels is already occurring. This warming and subsequent rise of snow levels is supported by RAP forecast soundings at Truckee showing 700 mb temps warming to near -3 C by later this afternoon. Farther north such as Susanville CA, WAA is much less pronounced and the airmass is colder overall. Expect precip type to favor snow or at least a rain/snow mix across NE California today. As the main parent cutoff low pivots closer to the coast of NE CA later tonight, low level flow will shift from the south-southwest to a more favorable southwest and unidirectional through a deeper layer. Consequently, snow levels will steadily fall early Sunday morning. We should see a transition to all snow for the Tahoe Basin at lake level between 1am-4am tonight. Farther south, snow levels will be slower to drop and it may be closer to mid morning by the time all of Mono county is in primarily snow. Outside of the foothills which could receive some light snowfall by early Sunday afternoon, if we are to see any snowfall on the valley floors it will come by late Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. However, impacts for western NV overall are likely to be minimal with this storm. Snowfall projections have generally remained steady-state with subtle yet significant tweaks in snow level height/timing being the main variable driving the snow total differences. We`ll use probability of exceeding 48 hour snowfall amounts of ___ inches (or feet) for certain geographic and elevation based areas through Monday morning: High Sierra above 9,000ft: 20-40% chance of greater than 3 feet 80-100% chance of greater than 2 feet Passes (Donner/Echo/Rose): 50-60% chance of greater than 2 feet 80-95% chance of greater than 12 inches Lake Tahoe (South Lake Tahoe/Incline Village/Truckee): 20-40% chance of greater than 12 inches 75-85% chance of greater than 6 inches Mountain Communities (Lee Vining/Susanville/Markleeville): 20-35% chance of greater than 6 inches Western NV valleys (Reno/Carson/Yerington): 10-15% greater than 1 inch 40-50% chance of greater than 0.1 inch -Dustin .LONG TERM...Monday through next weekend... Snow showers will continue Monday into Tuesday as the weekend`s upper low wanders inland across northern-central CA. Additional snow accumulations of a few inches could occur across portions of northeast CA, the Tahoe basin, and Alpine/western Mono counties, depending on the track of the low and the location of its deformation zone where a snow area is most likely to develop. Some scenarios keep the system with its moisture too far west of the Sierra, so there remains about a 20-30% possibility for minimal additional snow in these areas from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. After this low exits to the south during the day Tuesday, mainly dry and chilly conditions will prevail through Thursday. High temperatures will be in the 30s to lower 40s, about 5-10 degrees below average. Later in the week, another cold storm system is projected to reach the Sierra with medium range guidance showing variable scenarios for its intensity, leading to below average confidence in snowfall amounts. The current consensus is for either a weaker or split system with a modest moisture tap Thursday night into Friday, and possibly another shortwave arriving by next weekend. Most of the snow potential looks limited to areas near the Sierra crest and into western Lassen County, but some of the wetter scenarios allow for periods of moisture to spill into parts of western NV, so some light snow accumulation can`t be ruled out in some valley areas for Friday morning. MJD && .AVIATION... The storm is ongoing this afternoon with additional rain, snow, and wind impacts projected through Monday. Periods of rain, snow, LLWS and turbulence will persist for the western NV and Sierra terminals. Sierra terminals: Snow levels are in flux today with a mix of rain and snow for KTRK/KTVL and mostly snow for KMMH. Rain is projected to transition to all snow between 9z-12z for all Sierra terminals. LLWS and periods of turbulence will persist with FL100 winds around 40 to 50 kts into 18z Sunday. Surface wind gusts will be in the 20-25 kt range. Western NV terminals: Rain is beginning to spread into western NV this afternoon with mostly rain showers expected through at least Sunday morning. A mix of rain/snow will be possible late tonight into early Sunday morning, especially for KMEV/KCXP but KRNO may not see flakes of snow until late Sunday or early Monday morning, if at all. LLWS and turbulence will also be a concern for western NV terminals through 18z Sunday. Surface winds may pick up after 20z on Sunday with wind gusts in the 20-25 kt range by 0z Monday. -Edan && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday NVZ002. CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday CAZ071. Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday CAZ072. Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Monday CAZ073. && $$