Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/03/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
931 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Strong winds are expected on Saturday, especially across northern New York, along and behind a cold front which shifts east during the afternoon. Bouts of rain are expected as this weather system approaches and then departs late in the day, with lingering snow showers on Sunday before trending mainly dry on Monday. The next weather system arrives towards next Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 931 PM EST Friday...Focus of this update was adding chance of precipitation associated with a large area of elevated showers racing eastward into northern New York at this time. There has been enough reflectivity returns off the TYX radar (> 35 dbZ) to assume some rain will reach the ground despite the very dry low level air below the rain producing clouds. 00Z HRRR reflectivity initialized this line of showers well and have incorporated its output into the precipitation forecast through the next 6 hours as it moves eastward through our region. Marginally cold low level temperatures and wet bulb temperatures in the column below the cloud layer will likely yield a variety of precipitation types as the showers reach central and eastern sections of Vermont overnight. Fortunately, amounts will be light enough to likely limit impacts of any frozen precipitation with trace amounts of ice currently forecast, but it bears watching. Previous Discussion... Tonight will feature mostly dry weather but strong gusty southerly winds. Winds will be increasing as pressure gradient tightens between high pressure just off to our east and low pressure system over the Great Lakes which will be lifting north of our region on Saturday. Minimum temperatures will be mild, dipping into the mid 20s to mid 30s, warmest in the Champlain and St Lawrence valleys. A warm front will lift across our area overnight, and will likely see some virga associated with this first frontal passage, but certainly an increase in clouds. Towards early Saturday morning rain will start to spread west to east into our region, and some colder pockets in the Adirondacks could have some freezing rain early in the morning. Rapid warming will change all precipitation to rain by mid morning Saturday as the rain continues to spread across the rest of the area from west to east ahead of a surface cold front. Will also have a surge in strong winds Saturday morning. Winds will be out of the west southwest and will have some downsloping effects north of the Adirondacks. Areas across the northern tier of NY will experience the strongest gusts, especially Malone, Chateaugay, Ellenburg, Chazy areas. Meanwhile strong southerly winds continue in the Champlain valley over and along the lake, especially Grand Isle county and in western Franklin county. Isolated wind gusts will be as high as 50 mph. See wind advisory for further details. High temperatures on Saturday will reach the mid 40s to lower 50s. Winds will start to let up as we head into the evening hours and cold front pushes east of our region. Cold air behind the departing cold front will change rain over to snow showers, especially in the higher elevations. As the flow becomes northwesterly behind the departing cold front, we`ll also see some lake effect snow showers from Lake Huron reaching our area on Saturday night. Low temperatures on Saturday night will dip into the 20s areawide. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 242 PM EST Friday...A quiet period of wx anticipated with mid/upper lvl troughiness, while 1020mb sfc ridge builds into our cwa. The cyclonic nw flow aloft and moderate llvl caa supports lingering light mountain snow showers on Sunday morning, but depth of moisture is very limited. Good news thermal profiles wl support snowmaking operations at all elevations at local resorts with 925mb temps in the -8C to -10C at 12z Sunday, while 850mb temps are in the -13C to -14C range. Have adjusted summit temps back into the teens for highs on Sunday while valleys warm into the upper 20s to mid 30s. By Sunday evening parameters become slightly more favorable for minor lake effect snow showers to impact southern SLV, mainly south of Route 3. Cloud layer flow shifts to a southwest direction, while marginally cold air is available to produce some lake enhanced snow showers. Any accumulations wl be light and generally under an inch. Lows range from the mid teens to mid 20s, but should warm aft 06z as southerly flow develops ahead of our next system. Coldest valley wl be acrs eastern VT, including the NEK. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 242 PM EST Friday...Mid/upper lvl pattern wl feature a fast west to east zonal flow acrs the conus, separating warmer air to the south and cooler air acrs the northern tier. A series of weak and poorly defined boundaries wl cross our fa on Tues thru Thurs, resulting in an unsettled wx pattern. First wave approaches cwa late Monday night into Tues, with strong south/southwest 850mb winds of 40 to 50 knots, advecting in warmer thermal profiles. Best 5h forcing along with narrow ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb rh profiles moves from west to east acrs our cwa on Tues. Strong southwest downslope flow wl result in shadowing acrs the CPV on Tues, with a high pops and light to locally moderate qpf event anticipated (0.10 to 0.35). Given warming thermal profiles and initial sfc low pres tracking to our west, expecting mostly rain again acrs our fa, but some colder valleys could see a brief period of light mix on Tues morning, as colder/denser air remains trapped. Any ice accumulation wl be light. As fast confluent flow aloft prevails for mid week, boundary becomes hung up acrs the Ohio Valley/NE CONUS into New England. Uncertainty develops in the placement of best moisture and forcing, along with thermal profiles, but with boundary nearby an unsettled period of wx is possible for mid week. For now have continued with chc pops and wl wait for better agreement in guidance before increasing pops to likely/cat. Unfortunately we remain on the warmer side with southerly flow thru midweek, so most of the precip wl probably be in the form of liquid, until some cooler air at 850mb arrives late Weds into Thurs. Cooler 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles gradually advect into the fa on Thurs into Friday, as 1036mb high pres near Hudson Bay noses into our region. A brief period of upslope snow showers are possible during the modest caa pattern, but available moisture on the progged wind component is limited. In the temp department, expect above normal values for Monday thru Weds, before trending toward normal for Thurs into Friday, while lows are mainly in the 30s but trend into the 20s by late week. A period of breezy winds are possible on Monday night into Tues, as gradient btwn departing 1032mb high pres and approaching 1003mb low pres tightens, along with 850mb jet of 40 to 50 knots. Localized gusts 35 to 45 mph possible in the CPV and northern dacks. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 12Z. South winds 8 to 15 knots, with gusts of 16 to 25 knots, will continue to increase gradually at BTV, PBG, and RUT. Areawide, south or southwest LLWS will also increase and peak around 12Z, greatest at SLK with 65 knot shear up to 2000 feet. After 12Z, 20 to 30 knot gusts will start to develop at all sites, with strongest winds remaining at BTV gusts greater than 30 knots are expected. LLWS should abate after 18Z. Two periods of rain showers are expected. The first area of showers will help moisten the air and lower ceilings to MVFR in most locations by 16Z. Then a more organized area of showers along a cold front is expected, passing through MSS soon after 18Z, Champlain Valley around 20Z-21Z, and eastern Vermont around 22Z. Winds will shift sharply from southerly (or southwesterly at MSS) to westerly with a few strong gusts in its wake, mainly in the 20 to 30 knot range at Vermont sites and 35 to 40 knots at New York sites. Ceilings should trend back up to VFR briefly before MVFR ceilings likely redevelop, especially at SLK towards 00Z. Outlook... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Strong south winds of 20 to 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots will continue until a cold front passes through Saturday evening. Strongest winds will be in the morning hours and over the broad lake and Inland Sea. As winds turn westerly during the evening, wind speeds will gradually diminish into the 15 to 20 knot range. Wave heights will build to 3 to 5 feet with an area of 5 to 7 feet over the broad lake, greatest near Colchester Reef, diminishing during the afternoon. && .EQUIPMENT... The KCXX radar will be down for around 2 weeks (through approximately December 12) for a scheduled pedestal replacement on site. This a critical repair to ensure the operational longevity of the equipment. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for VTZ001-002. NY...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for NYZ026>031- 034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Neiles SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Kutikoff/Neiles MARINE... EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
National Weather Service Hastings NE
537 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022 Key Messages: * Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions remain a concern across southern portions of the CWA over the next couple hours, so will keep the Red Flag Warning as is through 6 PM. * Though the area of highest wind gusts the rest of this afternoon/evening looks to be primarily focused across western portions of KS, the threat for isolated gusts near 60 MPH remains, so will also keep the High Winds Warning as is through 10 MPH. There is a chance this may be cancelled early. * The majority of this 7-day forecast is dry. Precipitation chances are lower-confidence at this point, and are in the Monday night and Wed night-Thursday time frames. Though dry across the region, it certainly hasn`t been a quiet and calm day, as a strong surface cold front continues to push south. In the mid-upper levels, satellite and upper air data show a trough axis continuing to push east through the Nrn/Central Plains, the main driver of this sfc front. As models had shown the past couple days, pressure rises have been hefty behind the front, a trend that will continue south-southeastward through the rest of the day. Here at mid-afternoon, the stronger gusts are working their way into the northern/western fringes of the CWA, with higher gusts currently focused just off to our west. Skies have gradually cleared through the day, making it easy to pick out the impressive wall of dust that developed around midday along the sfc front, and has intensified as it treks SSE through western KS. HRRR has been handling things fairly well today, and continues to focus the worst of both the wind/dust just off to our WSW through the rest of this afternoon. If anything, the front moved in just a touch faster than forecast, and while some timing adjustments were made with time to wind, temps, dewpoints...overall there hasn`t been any surprises. Will be keeping a close eye on how that main area of dust trends over the next couple hours and its potential impact on our western areas to see if any type of shorter-fused dust headline may be needed. As far as the headlines go, will keep things as is at this point. For the Red Flag Warning across our south, sub-20% RH values are solidly in place, winds are switching and remain gusty...once the colder air builds in the RH values will climb, but the warning only runs until 6PM so am fine letting it ride for now. The High Wind Warning for areas along/south of Interstate 80 runs through 10 PM. Compared to 24hrs ago and even last night`s mid shift runs, models today have trended back a touch on the highest gust potential for our mentioned above, keeping the worst of it just off to our WSW. However, especially for roughly the west-southwest third or so of the CWA, certainly not ruling out at least isolated gusts near 60 MPH through this will keep the warning going as is as well. Mid-evening through the overnight hours tonight, winds will taper off. Models remain in good agreement showing sfc high pressure continue to sink southeast out of the Nrn Rockies, settling over the heart of the Central Plains by sunrise Saturday. Could have some gusty conditions linger through late evening/midnight across far ESE areas, but after midnight speeds to diminish to closer to 5-10 MPH. With skies expected to remain mostly clear and a cooler air mass accompanying that sfc high, overnight lows tonight are forecast to fall into the single digits above zero in NWrn portions of the area, with low-mid teens across the SSE. This weekend... In the wake of this mid-upper level trough axis sliding east today, models continues to show zonal flow setting up across the region, with an overall lack of any notable disturbances to bring us precipitation chances. At the surface, we`ll see a fairly quick return of southerly winds during the daytime hours tomorrow as the main area of high pressure slides east...and there will be the potential for gusty winds during the afternoon for areas along/west of HWY 183. Not looking at anything like today, but gusts near 20-25 MPH will be possible. The cooler airmass looks to keep highs for Saturday in the mid 30s east to low 40s west...and while skies are mostly clear to start the day, increasing upper level clouds are expected during the afternoon. Lighter winds are expected for Sunday, with a bump up in highs into the mid 40s to near 50. Next week - Monday through Friday... With the busier ongoing short-term, didn`t spend a lot of time fretting over the details of the longer term forecast. For the most part, dry conditions are expected, with two main chances for any preciptiation. The first chance comes Monday night with the arrival of a low-amplitude shortwave embedded in the continued zonal flow. However, overall confidence is models/NBM have gone back and forth with whether or not our CWA sees anything, if we do - when, etc. PoPs are low, and chances look like they`d mainly affect portions of south central NE with some light snow. The other chances are focused in the Wed night-Thurs time frame...but similar to Monday, confidence is low. As far as temperatures go, currently not looking at any significant swings either way in temperatures...with highs generally in the 30s/40s and lows in the teens/20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday) Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022 VFR conditions persist through the forecast period at KGRI and KEAR terminals. Gusty northwest winds continue as a strong cold front continues its push to the southeast this evening. Winds are expected to continue to decrease over the next few hours at the surface, however, there continues to be a concern of some LLWS around 05-09Z as winds aloft remain strong. Winds will continue to decrease through around sunrise where they transition from northwest to southwest. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ082>087. High Wind Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for NEZ060>064- 072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019. High Wind Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Wekesser
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
856 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 824 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022 00Z upper air analysis indicates broad nearly zonal to slightly southwest flow aloft across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley with a mid-level shortwave trough located over the Northern Plains and Rockies and a subtle shortwave trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front stretches from Western Lake Superior back through Western Missouri and into Kansas and Texas. Lift produced by the shortwave and increasing low/mid level moisture has resulted in the development of additional showers across the Mid- South. As of 8 PM CST, temperatures across the forecast area are in the 50s to lower 60s. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model solutions (CAMs) indicate the potential for showers will increase overnight into Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms may be also be possible as some weak elevated instability will be present. Will make some adjustments to rain chances to account for short term trends. Otherwise, forecast overall in good shape. Updated grids will be available shortly. CJC && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 240 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area tonight and persist through Saturday morning. Then a short lull will occur Sunday into Monday. More showers will push into the area Monday night through Wednesday near a stalled boundary. Up to 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are possible. Currently, warm air advection showers can be seen on radar as a front begins to approach the area. The aforementioned front will begin to move into eastern Arkansas tonight and continue throughout the night. The front will make its way into Memphis around 6 AM with temperatures quickly dropping behind it. Ahead of the front expect temperatures in the 60s, then there will be a quick drop to the 50s and 40s. Wind gusts could be up to 35 mph before the front moves through and after. Rain will diminish as the front exits the region by tomorrow afternoon. High pressure will move into the area Saturday night but will swiftly push eastward. After the front pushes through, Saturday should be a nice day, but chilly. Temperatures will be in the 60s. Lows Saturday night will be in the 30s. Temperatures Sunday will generally be in the 40s with low temperatures in the upper 30s. By Monday the subtropical jet will be in full swing as a warm front begins to slowly lift northward. Upper level flow will be oriented parallel to the boundary. Thus, expect showers to continue to affect the region. Furthermore, with the potential for cell training, some instability will be in play and could add to rainfall totals. The warm front will finally move eastward and showers should end by Thursday. We could see up to to 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the next 7 days. We could see even more rainfall depending on location of the front. Will continue to monitor. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022 Low level wind shear and prefrontal CIG transition timing to high IFR/low MVFR remain the main story for the evening. NAM FL020 winds depicted at 60 to 65KT around JBR by 03Z. MEM will remain near the tail of this southwesterly low level jet during the arrival push. May need a bump to 23060KT for FL020 winds at MEM, if the NAM`s characteristic conservatism comes into play. Overnight TS chances minimal, and considered removing VCTS. Otherwise, IFR CIG chances increase toward the end of the MEM arrival push. Latest HRRR guidance suggests the surface cold front has sped up slightly. Surface winds will be the main concern Saturday, with a secondary concern of VFR timing at TUP. Followed a GFS LAMP/NBM blend for TUP sky conditions trends on Saturday. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SWB AVIATION...PWB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1026 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1018 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 Light showers have started falling across parts of the area. Updated the forecast to account for this, as original thinking was it might take a bit longer for moisture to reach the surface due to the dry air that was in place. Nudged temperatures a bit to a warmer guidance overnight due to the cloud cover and rain that may keep temperatures a bit more mild overnight. As a result, RH`s overnight will be increasing as well. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 315 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 Key Messages: 1. Chances of rain increase tonight through tomorrow morning as a cold front approaches and moves through the area. 2. Strong southwesterly flow at 850mb tonight into tomorrow morning will produce gusty winds for the higher elevations of the East TN mountains, southwest VA, and the northern Cumberland Plateau. Discussion: Tonight and Tomorrow Rain: Dewpoints are still on the low side this afternoon as reflected in both area observations and soundings. This dry air in the low to mid levels will moisten through time as southwest flow increases ahead of the cold front. The HRRR and RAP both show measurable precip not moving in until after midnight, though a few sprinkles are certainly possible before then. From midnight onward, precip chances ramp up from slight chance to categorical POPs by Saturday morning. We begin to dry out Saturday afternoon as the front passes through but precip chances will linger across the far eastern TN mountains through the remainder of the day. Total precip will average around 0.25 inches for most places. Lastly, soundings still showing very little instability so while mainly rain is expected don`t be surprised if there is a rumble of thunder or two. Wind: 850mb flow increases this evening ahead of the cold front and peaks at 40 to 50 kts between 06Z and 12Z. The current wind advisory across the east TN mountains goes into effect tonight at 7 PM EST and expires at 7 AM Saturday morning. However, based on latest model guidance, will extend the advisory until 15Z. Wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph are expected within the advisory area. Other areas such as the mountains of southwest VA and the northern Cumberland Plateau can expect to see gusts from 30 to 40 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 315 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 Key Messages: 1. Dry weather to start the period with near normal temperatures. 2. Wet pattern sets up Monday and continues through Thursday. Possibility of flooding if a location gets several days of moderate to heavy rainfall. Discussion: Behind the front cooler and drier weather is expected for Sunday and into the first part of the work week, as surface high pressure sets up along with quasi-zonal flow through the mid levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures on Sunday will be about 10 degrees colder than Saturday, but they won`t remain that cold for very long as a quick warmup is expected early next week. Along with the warmer temperatures, we move into what should be a much wetter pattern through most of the upcoming work week, as multiple synoptic systems look to impact the region. First system looks to be a shortwave moving through the southern stream across the Tennessee Valley ahead of an approaching front. Models are coming into better agreement on the onset timing of this system, which should move into eastern Tennessee Monday evening. The peak intensity of this rain is expected to be Monday night into Tuesday morning, along with the strongest surge of Gulf moisture. Forecast soundings continue to show over 1" of PWAT in the atmosphere south of Interstate 40, with lower amounts to the north. This is above the 90th percentile based on climatological sounding data. So there could be periods of moderate to heavy rainfall overnight, and if a urban or poor drainage locations see`s multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain, there could be some localized flooding. However there will likely be a higher flooding threat during the middle and second half of the week, as more rain continues to fall across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The frontal boundary behind this initial round of rain is forecasted to stall out somewhere across the Ohio or Tennessee Valley. The location of this boundary will be the key factor in determining what locations get the heaviest, and repeated, rounds of rain... Unfortunately at this time there is still disagreement in the long range models of where this boundary will set up. If it sets up across the Tennessee Valley, then our area would likely see repeated rounds of rain Tuesday through the end of the week. If the boundary stalls out further to the north and west (across the Ohio Valley) then we`d likely still see rain, but more dry periods in-between. Long story short, it looks like there will definitely be moderate to heavy rain moving across the Ohio or Tennessee Valleys through much of next week, but there is still uncertainty on exactly WHERE this heavy rain will occur. Current QPF amounts are showing the possibility of 3+ inches in some parts of the eastern Tennessee Valley for the entire work week... however these amounts can (and likely will) change as the models wrestle with where the frontal boundary will stall out and slowly meander around. Will continue to highlight the threat of isolated flooding in the HWO. Temperatures next week should be back above normal, and with the cloudy skies, overnight lows also stay above normal... Warm enough that any precipitation next week should be all liquid across the entire region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022 At least the first 6 hours of the TAF period expected to be VFR at all 3 terminals. After 06Z, CHA and TRI possible LLWS within the vicinity, so this is reflected in the TAF. Closer to morning, LLWS threat subsides, CIGs lower and the chance of rain increases as a front approaches from the west. MVFR CIG and VSBY with occasional IFR conditions at times. Winds could gust out of the southwest around 15kts within the passing of the front. Conditions expected to improve behind the front towards the end of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 64 37 52 / 70 80 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 62 35 50 / 70 80 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 49 61 33 50 / 80 80 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 58 32 49 / 70 80 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SR LONG TERM....ABM AVIATION...KS