Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/29/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
938 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 .SYNOPSIS... As high pressure moves overhead, dry and seasonably cold conditions are expected through tomorrow as clouds gradually erode. South winds will develop early Wednesday and become locally strong in the northern Adirondacks and northernmost Lake Champlain area ahead of a sharp cold front. The front will help focus widespread rain showers during the day, and its passage Wednesday night will produce breezy west winds and cause temperatures to tumble back to normal by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 936 PM EST Monday...A quick glance at area webcams has shown that the scattered flurries from earlier in the evening have largely ended. Latest HRRR and RAP soundings show the DGZ has unsaturated with just low level clouds residing across the region. These clouds should be stubborn over the next few hours but should see a steady decrease in area coverage starting around midnight. Previous Discussion...A typical post-frontal regime with mainly cloudy skies with breaks due to downsloping off the higher peaks is in place this evening. As a ridge of surface high pressure to our west moves overhead tonight, northwest flow will relax. Winds at the top of the mixed layer, roughly 850 millibars, are expected to drop below 10 MPH, so where clouds erode temperatures should fall off nicely. Have kept hourly temperatures relatively elevated where clouds are more likely to linger overnight in portions of the Adirondacks and vicinity of the Green Mountains, while many lower elevation sites, especially east of the higher terrain, will be able to see temperatures fall back sharply with good radiational cooling conditions. All in all, a fairly seasonable air mass will be over our region so temperatures tonight are looking to drop into the 15 to 25 range in most spots and highs mid 30s to low 40s. By early Wednesday morning, high pressure moves to our east and our region sees substantial return flow sandwiched between this high and strong low pressure lifting into the northern Great Lakes. As a result, winds at high elevations and over Lake Champlain will ramp up. Channeled flow in our wide valleys will help temperatures rise overnight through the 30s given mixing of the increasingly warm air aloft. Accordingly, a strong surface inversion should be in place given the warming aloft such that sheltered lower elevation sites, especially in eastern Vermont, will be much colder than elsewhere with lows again dropping back into the 20s. Any precipitation should hold off until the daytime hours but clouds will be on the increase towards daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EST Monday...Cold front then crosses the region Wednesday into Wednesday night with another round of steadier rainfall expected on the order of 0.5 to 1 inch. A brief period of wet snow may be possible across the Adirondacks right at precipitation onset during mid to late morning, but impacts should be minimal with afternoon high temperatures expected to top out from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Gusty southerly flow will also be prevalent ahead of and immediately along the boundary in the late morning to afternoon time frame with latest model- blended 925 hPa flow supporting gusts from 20 to 30 mph area wide. Locally higher gusts from 30 to 45 mph will be possible in a narrow 6 hour time frame from late morning into early afternoon, mainly in the Champlain Valley due to channeling and along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks for modest downsloping effects. Some isolated power outages will be possible in these areas, but again, widespread impacts are not expected. Frontal boundary then clears quickly east Wednesday evening/night with precipitation waning in coverage and becoming more scattered in nature as flow remains modestly gusty and backs to westerly. Some minor snow accumulations will be possible across the higher terrain on the order of a dusting to perhaps two inches, especially in the Adirondacks where some lake effect response off Lake Ontario is expected. Other than a few flurries or spits of light snow/rain showers, no accumulations are expected in the broad valleys. Lows 25 to 32, give or take a degree or two. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 PM EST Monday...Thereafter, trending mainly quiet Thursday night into Friday night as high pressure bridges across the region with fair and seasonably cool weather. Our next frontal system then arrives on Saturday into Saturday evening. Once again, the main system core will pass north of our area with gusty southerly flow becoming established and mainly a rain event expected as highs top out in the 40s. Afterword, a general tapering to scattered rain/snow shower activity should occur by Saturday night in the post-frontal westerly flow regime. Then trending cooler and quieter once again by next Sunday under high pressure with highs mainly in the 30s. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...Lingering low level moisture is continuing to promote widespread MVFR conditions across the North Country with most terminals experiencing CIGs in the 015-030ft AGL range. MSS/RUT remain VFR, 033ft and 035ft respectively, but could lower to MVFR by 06Z before drier air can scour out moisture. The overall trend in the forecast has been to linger cloud cover longer overnight, so it could be 08-14Z before all terminals return to VFR. Winds are generally out of the northwest with widening temperature/dewpoint spread, so eventually moisture will erode. Light winds and much clearer skies are expected 12-00Z. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Definite RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt. Chance SHRA. && .EQUIPMENT... The KCXX radar will be down for approximately 2 weeks (through approximately December 12) for a scheduled pedestal replacement on site. This a critical repair to ensure the operational longevity of the equipment. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Clay/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Boyd/Kutikoff EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV