Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/19/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1004 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
Scattered snow showers have entered far north central North
Dakota, and radar reflectivity suggests brief periods of moderate
snowfall, especially between Dunseith and Rolla. PoPs were
increased to reflect this. All other changes for this update were
minor and driven by observed and rapid refresh model trends.
UPDATE Issued at 803 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
The Wind Advisory was allowed to expire on time at 8 PM CST. The
Highway 12 corridor in far southwest North Dakota continues to
report sustained winds around 30 mph and gusts near 45 mph, but
these should diminish as the core of 850 mb +50 kt winds slides
into South Dakota.
UPDATE Issued at 613 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
At 6 PM CST, satellite and surface observations show the cold
front located roughly from Watford City to Bismarck to Jamestown.
Pockets of light snow continue along and trailing the front,
though minimum visibility reductions have noticeably improved over
the past hour. Chances for snow were increased along the front as
it continues to move south early this evening. Other increases to
PoPs include 1) lake effect snow to the south of Lake Sakakawea
through the night, 2) a mid level baroclinic zone from northwest
to south central North Dakota through most of the night, and 3) a
warm front passing through north central North Dakota Saturday
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 155 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
Winds and patchy blowing snow are the main forecast issues in the
short term period.
Currently, strong west to northwest winds were located over
western North Dakota with gusts the past hour of 45 to 50 mph.
Winds were not as strong over the central portion of the state.
However, the latest RAP does show increasing lapse rates over the
next couple of hours over central ND with the mixing layer lifting
towards the top of the boundary layer. Actually the strongest
winds might be early this evening over portions of central ND.
With the current winds hitting advisory criteria in the west and
the potential for stronger winds central late afternoon through
this evening, will keep the Wind Advisory going. There are some
reductions in visibility in western ND due to the blowing snow
with Dickinson, Beach and Watford city all in the 2-4SM range the
past few hours.
For tonight, we expect occasional light snow or flurries through
the evening, and maybe continuing through the night. Short term
models have been having a hard time picking up on the light
precipitation so we added a broad brush chance for light snow
and/or flurries early this evening and kept flurries through the
rest of the evening hours. The evening shift can adjust as needed.
We did also add an are of lake effect snow downstream of Lake
Sakakawea later this evening and overnight. Once winds shift
northwest later this evening there is a unidirectional northwest
to southeast fetch across the lake with a well mixed boundary
layer and sufficient CAPE above the open water. A potential
concern is a lack of moisture in the lowest layers but again, will
let the evening/overnight shift see how things develop and adjust
as needed. Most impacts here would be mainly directly downstream
of the lake, but with the potential light snow to spread towards
the Bismarck/Mandan metro area.
A surface high pressure ridge tracks across the forecast area on
Saturday, bringing a period of lighter winds and less cloud
cover. Then as the surface high moves to our east we see
increasing clouds quickly return in the warm advection return
flow on the back side of the high. Currently the NBM is not
producing pops with this band of warm advection, but would not be
surprised to see a little light snow or flurry activity over
northern and eastern portions of the forecast area Saturday
afternoon/evening.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
The weather looks to stay dry through the long term under a general
ridging pattern. Temperatures will be back closer to average with
highs in the upper 20s and mid 30s throughout the week, as cold air
aloft will stay mostly to our east. Wednesday evening a trough looks
to move through bringing the chance of snow again, but it will be a
quick system with most likely small accumulations. GFS plume
analysis shows a big spread in QPF here, anywhere between 0 and 0.25
inches through Thursday. We then get back into the ridge with warmer
temperatures. Friday could be the warmest day with highs in the 30s
and 40s. Of course with that being so far out there is plenty of
uncertainty with this.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
Strong winds shifting from west to northwest will continue this
evening, gradually diminishing overnight. Pockets of light
falling snow and blowing snow could temporarily reduce visibility
to MVFR/IFR levels this evening. MVFR ceilings are forecast at all
terminals except KJMS beginning later this evening. There is
uncertainty on how long the MVFR ceilings will prevail, but it
will likely be at least through mid Saturday morning.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
534 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
The HRRR had a 1034 mb objectively analyzed surface high over the
entirety of western Kansas early this afternoon, resulting in the
light northwest winds near a sunny Hays, and the near calm or
light and variable winds from Syracuse to Dodge City and
southward. GOES satellite imagery showed the back edge of the
5-10kft stratus layer stubbornly holding temperatures slowly
rising or more often near steady so far this afternoon over a
large portion the area. Still the back edge is making a southward
progression with time albeit very slow, and the HREF mean cloud
cover probabilities suggest a complete clearing of even the more
middle layer of clouds by early this evening.
Tonight will be every bit as cold as the night before, with
temperatures tanking into the teens across most of the area.
However, a marked improvement in temperatures for Saturday with
sunny skies and light winds, and the NBM model indicating a range
of outcomes for DDC in the low 40’s (anywhere from 40 to about 44
degrees). With the colder boundary layer air retreating across
the Missouri valley and winds becoming a little westerly in our
area, highs might be a couple of degrees warmer at Hays, and
closer to the mid 40s down at Liberal and Elkhart, but overall a
fairly thermally homogeneous air-mass Saturday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
By Sunday a more significant height response in the boundary layer
from the exiting high will result in still light westerly flow but
still gusty – and warming into the 50s. There will be a mid level
trough attendant to the strong zonal westerly jet over Texas,
however our region should remain dry through much of the week. A
dry and mild week with ensembles supporting highs mainly in the
50s over western Kansas is seen. If we fast forward to Thursday,
which is the Thanksgiving holiday, a trough is swinging through
the central plains, pushing another cold front across Kansas in
the late Wednesday and Thursday time-frame, which warranted the
slight chance precipitation probabilities across the central
Kansas counties in the NBM/official forecast. Depending on time of
day, rain or snow might be possible. If any precipitation were to
occur, the fast moving nature and so far quite low and spotty QPF
signals would result in minimal impacts if any, and not all of
the global spectral models even produce any QPF, namely the
Canadian.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 534 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current
light westerly to northwesterly winds will stay aob 12 kts
through the overnight period, before increasing out of the north-
northwest during the 15-22Z Saturday time frame into the 14-17 kt
range with gusts of 24-27 kts possible. After 22Z the boundary
layer will decouple and winds will rapidly crater to light and
variable by the end of the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 15 43 19 55 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 11 43 16 53 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 14 45 20 56 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 11 44 16 55 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 13 41 16 55 / 0 0 0 0
P28 18 44 19 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Springer
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
506 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
Key Messages:
*Cold continues tomorrow then warming up Sunday onward
*Breezy again tomorrow
Satellite showing mostly clear skies across the area today, though
it hasn`t done much for temperatures. We are still in the 20s today
as expected with breezy conditions making it feel like its in the
teens. The below normal cold weather is expected to continue
tomorrow as we are in northwesterly flow aloft with the trof to our
northeast deepening and making its way eastward. A sfc trof/cold
front will also sweep southward through the area overnight tonight.
Highs tomorrow are expected to be a slight improvement in the 30s
though it will still be breezy.
Warmer temperatures are coming on Sunday with highs expected in the
50s which will continue through next week. NBM deterministic is at
or above the 75th percentile through Tuesday. This could be due to
the presence of strong high pressure at the surface coupled with
westerly and southwesterly flow at the surface. This is also in
line with CPC saying that we will be decently above average the
next 6-10 days. The spread in ensemble temperatures widens quite a
bit on Thursday and Friday as our next system is set to push
through.
The next system coming through is a large trof with a possible
closed low over the Great Lakes on Thursday and Friday. There is
still a good amount of model discrepancy on the depth and
placement of the trof, but its looking better than it did 24hrs
ago. Cluster analysis shows a deeper trof than the mean with 2 of
the clusters which make up 44% of the ensembles. This solution
would support temperatures on the lower side of guidance for
Thursday and Friday. Also, though we still look to be dry through
Wednesday, there are now some small PoPs (15%) Wednesday overnight
and Thursday morning for the far southern portions of the CWA.
This would be thanks to the front that is expected to move
through.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 447 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
Expect WSW winds overnight as a cold front is approaching from the
north. Around mid-morning the cold front should move through the
TAF sites which will bring the winds back to the NW. Behind the
front expect the winds to be a little gusty with gusts in the low
30s. Thinking the winds will be a little stronger over GRI vs EAR
and the gradient looks a little tighter over eastern NE. Along
the front the RAP and NAM are trying to bring a FEW- SCT layer for
a few hours before moving it off. LLWS looks possible overnight
so kept a mention for it in the TAFs.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Shawkey
AVIATION...Beda
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
454 PM MST Fri Nov 18 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM MST Fri Nov 18 2022
At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis
shows the CWA underneath the positively tilted axis of an upper
air trough giving the CWA a northwesterly flow aloft. Surface
observations and satellite imagery show some overcast mid-level
clouds in the southwestern quadrant of the CWA with the remainder
of the region having little to no cloud cover. Going into the
evening hours, models continue the northwesterly flow over the CWA
going through the night as the upper air trough slightly moves
eastward with a ridge trailing in the west. At the surface, dry
conditions look to prevail all throughout the remainder of Friday
with northwesterly to westerly surface winds. Daytime highs expect
to stay just above and below the 30 degree mark with overnight
lows in the middle single digits to middle teens. See the Climate
section for possible records today and tonight. Overnight wind
chill values look to be below zero in areas along and west of a
Wray-Goodland-Leoti line, but staying above -10 degrees.
For Saturday, forecast guidance has the CWA`s upper air flow turning
northerly with the ridge advancing eastward as the trough progresses
away from the CWA. At the surface, dry conditions look to continue
across the region with north-northwesterly winds during the day
gusting up to around 25 kts for a good portion of the CWA. Warmer
high temperatures compared to Friday`s are expected on Saturday
being between the lower and upper 40s followed by overnight lows in
the lower to middle teens. Wind chill values look to stay above 0
degrees with the exception of western Cheyenne county in CO.
On Sunday, models show the CWA continuing to have a generally
northerly flow aloft being underneath the upper air ridge with a
weak subtropical trough over northern TX. A third day of dry
conditions are expected for the CWA at the surface. While portions
of the CWA may see RH values in the middle teens, surface winds
do not look to support fire weather at this time. Opting to hold
off on the messaging of elevated fire weather after discussion
with the local fire weather focal point at this time, but will
watch to see if these conditions worsen in future forecasts. The
warming trend continues on Sunday with daytime highs in the lower
to upper 50s and overnight lows being in the middle teens to
lower 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1217 PM MST Fri Nov 18 2022
Near and above normal temperatures with generally dry conditions
will be the story for next workweek and Thanksgiving.
In the upper levels, zonal flow will dominate the region until
Thursday. Monday through Wednesday will be mild with maximum
temperatures warming to 5-10 degrees above normal. Low temperatures
overnight will be slightly below normal, cooling into the lower 20s
and upper teens.
Thursday, an upper level trough will quickly be forced over the area
by a ridge moving east over the western CONUS. This trough could
create a line of upper level divergence. In the mid and lower
levels, the GFS and ECMWF are showing similar features; a low
pressure system will descend from south central Canada over the Great
Lakes and continue southeastwards. At 500 mb, a cold front extending
from this low will move over the Great Plains and introduce moderate
amounts of vorticity. At and below 700 mb, increased moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico will be shoved into the east central CONUS by
the LLJ Wednesday night. Currently, majority of the moisture will
stay to the east and south of the Goodland CWA. However, if the
LLJ shifts farther east, precipitation could occur in the Tri-
State area. As it stands currently, areas around Hill City, KS and
Gove City, KS could see light showers Thursday morning. Due to
the ridge, and its parent high pressure system around Baja
California, warm air will still be funneled into the High Plains,
meaning we are expecting near and above normal high and low
temperatures on Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 350 PM MST Fri Nov 18 2022
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main focus is the LLWS that
will move in from the northeast tonight, impacting KMCK first then
KGLD. Otherwise northwest winds will be breezy during the
afternoon.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 PM MST Fri Nov 18 2022
A record low maximum temperature of 29 degrees is possible in
Goodland today, last set back in 1962.
A record low temperature of 9 degrees above zero is possible in
Tribune Saturday morning, last set back in 1962.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JTL
CLIMATE...99/076
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1044 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope snow showers will continue across Northern NH and
the Western Maine mountains through this evening. Several
rounds of snow showers will be possible in the mountains through
the weekend, especially on Sunday while southern areas remain
mostly dry with temperatures running below normal. Temperatures
will slowly moderate from the early to middle part of next week
with mostly dry conditions continuing south of the mountains.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM Update...
Continue to raise pops across the region especially over
northern areas. It is this region where snow showers remain as
large snowbands continue to develop over and east of Lake
Ontario. Expect some snow shower activity for a good part of
the night until a wind shift occurs over the eastern Great Lakes
towards Saturday morning. Have also added cloud cover to the
forecast and raised snowfall amounts, albeit, it will still be
light. 00Z relatively dry sounding from GYX indicates that some
areas will not have snowfall.
Update...
Have updated the near term portion of the forecast for this
evening. Latest radar imagery continues to show a few flurries
and snow showers making it in to the northern mountains. Have
upped pops for this location as Lake Effect snow showers from
Ontario continue to move towards that region per latest radar
imagery. A few flurries may reach southern New Hampshire this
evening from a weak short wave crossing south of our region.
Made minor adjustments for winds, temperatures and dew points
for the overnight hours. Otherwise, little in the way of changes
to the overall package.
Prev Disc...
Broad cyclonic flow across the Northeast continues through the
night with southwest flow continuing. Lake effect snow streamer
moisture and a weak 500mb vort max will cross overhead this
evening. Most meso-guidance is still hinting at the potential
for accumulating snowfall across the most northern regions to
include Coos County and the Western Maine Mountains due to snow
shower activity. Confidence is highest across the Jackman Maine
region due to an extension of the Lake Ontario snow streamer
band. Besides that a few flurries could be possible further
south in the coastal plain this evening as the vort max passes
overhead. The HRRR continues to show some snow showers, but
believe it is a bit overdone with the instability. It will be
cold once again tonight with teens in the mountains and low to
mid 20s for the remainder of the area. Ice formation on small
bodies of water could begin soon with these cold nights.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
500mb flow
becomes more amplified aloft tomorrow as a strong shortwave
trough digs into the Great Lakes region. Flow will be become
more south/southwest at the surface during the afternoon hours.
expecting a bit more sun than the last few days as the lake
effect moisture will be steered further north with less snow
showers activity for the mountains as 925mb-700mb moisture
decreases down below 50%. The flow will allow temperatures to
warm a degree or two compared to today, with high temperatures
remaining in the 40s near the coast and southern NH, and in the
30s in the foothills and mountains. A surface cold front
approaches the area by evening and will push eastward during the
overnight hours. Ahead of the front there could be some ocean
effect clouds and light precipitation in the Penobscot Bay
region tomorrow night, but this is a low confidence solution at
this time. Besides the ocean effect precipitation, have also
kept pops increasing through the night in the mountains with
favorable upslope flow and increase moisture profiles leading to
snow shower activity once again after midnight. It will remain
dry south of the mountains through the night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A few mountain snow showers are expected to be ongoing Sunday
morning as a result of lift provided by an approaching upper trough.
The trough axis will cross to our east by early afternoon, and once
this occurs low-level flow will veer more W to WNW and strengthen.
As a result, upslope snow shower activity is expected to increase,
and I`m still thinking we could see a snow squall or two
Sunday afternoon/early evening, mainly across the mountains and
foothills. High pressure will closely follow the departing trough so
we`ll have the pressure rise/fall couplet as well as steep low-level
lapse rates, sufficient moisture, and a small amount of instability.
Both the GFS and NAM continue to show Snow Squall Parameters in the
2-5 range across the mountains/foothills. The unblocked, increasing
W-WNW flow is expected to carry some extra cloud cover down to
southern areas, and a couple of snow showers also can`t be ruled out
with some weak instability present.
Lastly, westerly winds will really ramp by late morning and into the
afternoon as we mix the strengthening flow aloft to the surface.
Forecast soundings support 25-35 mph pretty much areawide with some
closer to 40 mph, and guidance continues to target southern NH with
these stronger winds. With these winds and temperatures only in the
30s, wind chill readings will be in the teens in 20s, making it feel
quite raw out. Upslope activity will gradually wind down overnight
Sunday into very early Monday as high pressure briefly builds into
the region. We`ll also see some of the coldest air of the season so
far with widespread lows in the teens and even some single digits
across northern areas.
Cold advection shuts off on Monday, so temperatures should recover a
few degrees by reaching the upper 30 to low 40s. We`ll again mix
well, and luckily winds aloft won`t be as strong but still
supporting around 20-25 mph at the surface, perhaps 30 mph
along the coast. As quickly as the high pressure built in, it will
quickly shift east later in the day as another fast-moving shortwave
and attendant surface low track across southern Quebec, bringing
another round of scattered mountain snow showers while the rest of
the area remains dry.
Flow aloft becomes more zonal across the Northeast toward Tues-Weds
of next week before transitioning to ridging toward Thurs as an
upper trough deepens over the center CONUS. Except for a couple
opportunities for mountain snow showers with some embedded waves in
the zonal flow, precip chances for much of next week look very low
with a dry airmass, support by the vast majority of ECMWF and GFS
ensemble members. By late week, the ridge will start to shift east
as the upper trough/low heads toward the eastern CONUS, which should
start to increase precip chances through the day Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...No significant aviation impacts expected over the
next 24 hours. All TAF terminals will remain VFR conditions
through tomorrow night, with the one exception being KHIE where
a passing snow shower could bring tempo MVFR conditions this
evening. Winds will remain out of the southwest direction with
gusts decreasing shortly after sunset tonight. Similar
conditions are expected tomorrow as today with partly cloudy
skies and southwesterly winds.
Long Term...VFR conditions are primarily expected from Sunday
through most of next week. The exception is at KHIE where MVFR
ceilings are more likely as well as scattered snow showers
bringing visibility reductions on Sunday-Sunday night and
possibly late in the day on Monday. Otherwise, the main story
on Sunday and Monday will be the winds. Westerly winds are
expected to gust to 25 to 35 kt on Sunday afternoon and evening,
perhaps approaching 40 kt. Winds aren`t looking quite as stout
on Monday, but gusts to around 25 kt are still possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions remain over the next waters through
midnight with wind gusts around 25kts from the west. Winds are
expected to decrease through tomorrow morning before increasing
once again tomorrow evening out of the southwest ahead of an
approaching cold front and reinforcing shot of cold air.
Long Term...Increasing westerly flow is expected to create a period
of Gale conditions across the waters from Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night with gusts to around 40 kt possible. Conditions briefly
fall to SCA levels on Monday, but Monday night could see a
return of westerly winds gusting in excess of Gale force. SCA
conditions last through Tuesday with some improvement in conditions
possible toward the middle of next week.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150-152-
154.
Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Combs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
933 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
Area of stratus with a few flurries moving across the region this
evening. Cold evening ongoing with 0230Z temperatures generally in
the lower and mid 20s.
The trailing mid level vort lobe responsible for the clouds and
flurries will shift east of the forecast area by the end of the
evening with any lingering flurries ending. Skies are already
clearing over the northern Wabash Valley and will expand across much
of the rest of the forecast area through 06Z.
The rest of the night will be quiet with just some passing clouds
drifting across the northern half of the forecast area. Nudged
temperatures down slightly as everyone should fall into the 15-20
degree range. Winds will hold up at 5-10mph with single digit wind
chills at times.
Zone and grid updates out.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
* Flurries through this evening
* Blustery conditions tomorrow with gusts up to 40 mph
* Chance of snow showers tomorrow evening
.This evening and tonight...
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows low pressure in place
over the northern Great Lakes with a weak cold front now well south
of the region in the Tennessee River valley. Cold high pressure was
found over the Central plains, extending its influence south and
eastward through much of the CONUS. GOES16 satellite imagery shows
abundant cloud cover across Central Indiana within the westerly
cyclonic flow in place about the trough over the region. Radar
continues to show a few bands of very light snow showers/flurries
mainly along and north of the I-70 corridor as a weak upper wave
continues to wring out low level moisture from the stratus deck.
Westerly winds are gusting upwards of 30 kts this afternoon as steep
low level lapse rates allow for winds within the LLJ to mix to the
ground.
Keeping snow flurries/light snow showers in the forecast through
around 03z tonight as RAP cross sectional cuts through the region
show weak frontogenetical forcing in the shallow saturated layer and
DGZ through then. No accumulations expected as moisture is very
limited and forcing is weak. Guidance suggest a drying trend through
the column after 03z through the rest of the overnight hours so
trended towards SCT/BKN clouds for this period.
Steep low level lapse rates remain in place as arctic air streams in
overhead leading to blustery conditions across the state today. With
lapse rates expected to remain steep and mixing heights around 1km,
keeping winds elevated through around 03z tonight as well before
dying down.Wind gusts to 30 kts should continue, especially along
and north of I-70 through the evening.
.Saturday...
Cyclonic flow remains in place across the Great Lakes with troughing
remaining overhead and surface low pressure still north of the
region. A strong wave with arctic origins and associated front dive
southward tonight and round the base of the trough tomorrow swinging
through the region by the afternoon and evening hours. Winds veer to
the SW during the day ahead of the system; however by no means does
this indicate "warm" air advection. Temperatures aloft at 850mb
remain at or below -10C, so expect another cold day with highs
struggling to get out of the 30s.
A few impacts to mention for Saturday, the first being wind. Strong
low level jet developing ahead of the approaching arctic front
tomorrow with winds nearing 40 kts just 2-3 kft above the ground.
Cold air advection aloft will lead to very steep low level lapse
rates resulting in mixing heights over 5-6 kft...well within the low
level jet. This combined with very dry conditions in the lower
levels should lead to an optimal environment for stronger winds.
Expect gusts 30-40+ mph to easily mix down to the ground after
sunrise. Strongest gusts expected during the afternoon and evening
hours just before and after the front passes through. Issuing an SPS
for the frequent strong wind gusts. Conditions will be close to
advisory criteria; however after coordinating with surrounding
offices will hold off on issuing an advisory for now.
Another impact tomorrow could be snow showers with the passing of
the front. Very dry conditions through the column should inhibit
precipitation making it to the ground as the front approaches. Cross
sectional cuts through the region and BUFKIT time height analysis
suggest a narrow few hour window where enough saturations occurs in
the DGZ and PBL occurs simultaneously when there is just enough lift
and frontogenetical forcing. Currently the best timing for dynamics
to overlap is late afternoon and early evening. Introduced 20-30
percent PoP due to this along and north of the I-70 corridor. With
such steep lapse rates and strong winds, would not be surprised to
see a few snow squalls develop across North Central Indiana. Behind
the front into the evening hours, guidance suggest lingering
moisture in the boundary layer so expect flurries to possible linger
behind the front. Not expecting much, if any, accumulation; however
a few areas could pick up a half inch if stronger squalls do
develop. Will continue to watch the potential for snow showers and
squalls along and behind the front over the next 24 hours. Overall
the biggest impact for tomorrow will be winds.
&&
.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
Saturday Night Through Sunday.
Temperatures will remain much below normal through the weekend with
conditions similar to the average for mid January as a result of a
strong polar airmass within broad cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes
area. The coldest night of the winter season so far is expected
Saturday night with lows in the low to mid teens across the area
along with clear skies. Winds won`t be quite as strong Sunday
afternoon as the pattern begins to shift, but wind chills will be
near 0 during the early morning hours before diurnal heating kicks
in.
Monday Through Friday.
The warmer pattern then sets in starting Monday as the aforementioned
area of cyclonic flow finally pushes to the east and upper level
flow becomes more zonal. Southerly flow will also return near the
surface which will further help to bring conditions back to near
normal. By the latter portions of the week, the pattern will shift
again as two systems approach the area.
Models are having a difficult time managing the potential for a low
pushing from the lee of the Rockies in addition to a clipper like
system and how they might interact. Current thoughts are that the
southern system will drive the sensible weather for central Indiana
with good moisture flow out ahead of the low. The track of the low
and pattern would favor a few rumbles of thunder, but temperatures
and dew points currently look too low for any possible mention at
this time.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 547 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
Impacts:
* Brief MVFR ceilings possible early this evening otherwise VFR
conditions expected
* Wind gusts increasing on Saturday to 30-35kts
Discussion:
Lower stratus lingering across the region early this evening as the
tail of a mid level vort lobe drifts across the area in the cyclonic
flow regime. May see a few flurries over the next few hours this
evening but no impacts to terminals expected. The stratus may
briefly dip to MVFR otherwise expect ceilings at around 4kft until
skies clear overnight. Gusts will drop off quickly with sunset with
backing SW winds developing at 5-10kts overnight.
A flat surface ridge over the Tennessee Valley in tandem with an
approaching frontal boundary on Saturday will create a progressively
tighter pressure gradient and a windy day for central Indiana. With
model soundings showing a well mixed boundary layer and 850mb winds
at 40-50kts...expect surface gusts in excess of 30-35kts by the
afternoon. The front will swing through the region during the late
afternoon with winds veering from southwest to westerly as it
passes. May see a few snow showers at KIND and KLAF with the
boundary but expected coverage does not warrant inclusion in the
forecast at this time.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Update...Ryan
Short Term...CM
Long Term...White
Aviation...Ryan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
912 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
...New UPDATE...
...EXTENDED FROST ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF INLAND SE GA...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
Cool night with passing high clouds with evening temps dropping
quickly after sunset into the upper 30s to near 40 across inland
SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley to near 50 toward the
Atlantic coast. A surface ridge axis extended across the central
Gulf Coast states this evening while a broad area of low pressure
was beginning to form in the farther western GOMEX.
Dry conditions will prevail tonight despite a few high res CAMs
trying to show a few patches of light rain overspreading NE FL
form the GOMEX after midnight through sunrise. The 00z JAX RAOB
showed an VERY dry low/mid level airmass with PWAT 0.18 inches, so
the airmass will need time to moisten before any precip potentially
reaches the ground as isentropic lift gradually develops across
the area into Saturday.
There will be increasing mid and high clouds through the night
aloft, as a coastal trough axis forms offshore over the warmer
ocean water. With the trough offshore, low level flow near the
coast will back from NE this evening to more NNW overnight, with
cooler air funneling southward across inland areas. With temps
already cooling into the 30s across inland SE GA this evening,
opted to extended the existing Frost Advisory to include all of
inland SE GA but refrained from extending farther across NE FL
given increasing cloudiness through the night and less than ideal
radiational cooling conditions.
Still anticipate a marginal light freeze for portions of inland SE
GA near daybreak based on current temperature trends with lows
near 31 to 32 degF for 1-2 hrs, but not cool enough for a Freeze
Warning especially given last nights freeze in the area. Temps
will be more mild across NE FL and cooling trends will likely
plateau after midnight as mid clouds infiltrate from the GOMEX
across much of our NE FL zones through daybreak Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 248 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
Surface high pressure will be northwest of the region through
Tonight. Meanwhile, an inverted trough will build across the coastal
waters, and moisture will move east along the Gulf coast. So, skies
will begin clear Tonight, then clouds increase through the night
from both the east and west. However, the night is expected to be
dry.
As somewhat milder and more moist air advects off the ocean
overnight, there will be a considerable gradient from west to east
for temperatures Tonight. Lows well inland will fall into the
lower 30s, while lows in the mid to upper 40s will be common near
the coast. Less wind is expected inland Tonight, than this
morning. So, while readings will be a little milder, there is
a greater chance for frost. Have issued a frost advisory well
inland. A few locations over interior SE GA could touch freezing
toward dawn, but not long enough to warrant a freeze warning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
Surface high pressure ridge will remain to the northwest Saturday,
as moisture from gulf system increases from the west, and moisture
increases from east as well from inverted coastal trough. Chances
for showers will slowly increase through the day. Temperatures will
remain well below normal on Saturday, with highs in most locations
around 60, except lower to mid 60s south of Jacksonville.
High pressure ridge to the northwest will strengthen Saturday night
through Sunday. This will flatten the coastal trough, and help to
push the moisture from gulf system further to the south as well. So,
precipitation chances will be across area on Saturday, then begin to
sink to the south on Sunday. Lows on Saturday will be milder due to
cloud cover and increased moisture with lows in the 40s. Highs
Sunday will be well below normal due to a push of cold advection
from building high. Readings on Sunday will top out in the 50s in
most locations. Coastal NE FL could see highs reach around 60.
Strong high pressure to the north will keep precipitation to the
south Sunday night, but as the high weakens Monday, moisture will
begin to return north into area. Onshore flow will result in a wide
range in lows Sunday night. Lows over inland SE GA will be in the
middle 30s, with a little patchy frost possible, while lows along
the NE FL coast will be in the middle 50s. Temperatures will trend a
little below normal for Monday, with highs in the 60s across SE GA,
and upper 60s to lower 70s over NE FL.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Friday)
Issued at 248 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
High pressure ridge will build more to the north northeast Monday
night into Tuesday, as moisture builds in from the south. Weak low
pressure is expected to develop over area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, then pull to the northeast of the region. Weak high
pressure will build south across area Thursday, but troughing will
remain near the coast. A cold front will move east into area on
Friday. Precipitation will be in the forecast for much of the long
term, with the best potential for a dry stretch of weather from
Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Temperatures this period will trend near to above normal. The
nights will be most likely to be above normal due to expected
cloud cover and precipitation.
As higher dewpoints move north into region during this period, the
chance for sea fog which could migrate inland will be possible.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
VFR conditions tonight with increasing mid and high clouds from
the WSW while a few coastal low level cumulus begin to skirt near
SGJ and possibly CRG at times under NE to N winds 4-8 kts. Winds
weaken inland and become near calm. High resolution HREF and HRRR
suggest potential light patches of sprinkles after 06z through
Saturday mainly across NE FL terminals as isentropic lift
increases under strengthening low level NNE flow. As onshore flow
increases into Saturday afternoon, the potential for MVFR ceilings
increases near SGJ and eventually at CRG, then expanding inland
toward JAX/VQQ/GNV into Saturday evening. At this time indicated
SCT-BKN040 after 16z Saturday with breezy NE winds 10-12 kts at
the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
High pressure will build from the northwest through Saturday, while
inverted trough remains over the coastal waters. High pressure will
build more to the north on Sunday. A broad area of low pressure will
move north into region early next week. Low pressure will build over
coastal waters mid week, as high pressure retreats further to the
north. The potential for sea fog will exist next week, especially in
nearshore waters.
Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Saturday
NE FL Moderate through Saturday
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 32 60 42 55 / 0 20 30 10
SSI 42 61 47 57 / 0 20 30 20
JAX 40 61 45 58 / 0 20 30 30
SGJ 46 65 50 61 / 10 20 30 40
GNV 40 60 47 56 / 10 20 30 40
OCF 41 65 48 58 / 10 20 40 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for FLZ020-021-122.
GA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
AM...None.
&&
$$