Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/15/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
830 PM MST Mon Nov 14 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM MST Mon Nov 14 2022
Very minor updates to the forecast for tonight. We`ve been
watching run after run of the high resolution models this evening.
The HRRR in particular hasn`t been all that consistent about
where snow could develop, but in general it is favoring the
southwest foothills and adjacent plains from central Boulder
County southward into Douglas County, as well as the mountains of
Summit County and the Park/Gore Ranges. Amounts were left alone in
the high country where 1-4" are possible overnight, but along the
east slopes down to areas just west of I-25, feel like the HRRR
has been consistent enough to marginally increase snow amounts to
around an inch early Tuesday morning. So we`re still not talking
much for those areas along the east slops of I-70, I-25 south of
Denver, US-285 and the west and northwest parts of metro Denver.
Current radar trends seem to favor the direction the HRRR is going
with some bands of light snow currently over the mountains and
east slopes. Webcams are also showing snow across the I-70
corridor, and US-40, generally where the HRRR has some. We also
refreshed temperatures though they were very much on track to drop
to the teens across the plains and single digits in the mountain
valleys.
The main message here is that roads are below freezing right now
as light snow develops, so snow should stick and there could
certainly be some slick spots for tomorrow morning`s commute
across metro Denver/Boulder, especially west and south sides, and
any route through the mountains. Mountain webcams are already
showing some snow on the roads with some slick spots likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM MST Mon Nov 14 2022
One system has exited to the southeast of CO this afternoon with
another one expected to drop out of the western WY and into CO
tonight. the RAP/HRRR models are trending up in terms of qpf
around Denver later this evening. The cold front is expected to
push into the Denver area around 9 pm with a weak/shallow
northeast/east upslope component. In addition, the models show a
brief period of weak mid/upper level QG ascent dropping north to
south across the forecast area this evening. The RAP soundings
suggest deepening moisture this evening from 800 to 550 mb with
descent instability in that layer. For this reason, I have
increased the pops to 40-60 percent range, with the best chance of
snowfall accumulation in/near the foothills/Palmer Divide to the
west/south of Denver. Snowfall accumulations around one inch
possible in this area, primarily between 11 pm-3 am. As the system
shifts southward towards 5-6 am, the airmass will dry from north
to south with decreasing pops through the morning. Temperatures
will remain cold, similar to today with brisk north/northwest
winds across the plains east/northeast of Denver. Strongest gusts
of 30-35 mph will occur along the WY/NE border in the afternoon.
In the mountains, persistent light snowfall has benefited Winter
Park the most today, but that has finally tapered off. Another
round of light snow expected overnight. Most areas should see an
inch or two of snowfall, especially on the west/northwest facing
aspects, with localized amounts of 3-4 inches possible. Snowfall by
Tuesday will be primarily orographic and confined the those
favored areas in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MST Mon Nov 14 2022
On Wednesday, there will be northerly flow aloft over Colorado
between a trough over the upper Midwest and a ridge near Seattle.
There will be subsident flow due to AVA from a departing shortwave
trough and since Colorado will be under the left entrance region
of a jet over the southern US. Conditions will be dry and mostly
sunny. High temperatures will be below normal reaching the upper
30s and low 40s across the plains. Winds will be gusty across the
northeastern plains with gusts up to 40 mph due to stronger winds
aloft mixing down. Winds will be much lighter in the Denver metro.
A large shortwave trough will move southward out of Canada towards
Colorado on Thursday. A strong jet streak with 250 mb winds up to
130 knots will position itself over our forecast by the latter
half of the day which will aid in creating QG ascent. At the
surface, a cold front will move across northern Colorado around
midday and northeast winds behind it will develop upslope flow
especially across the southern foothills, Denver metro, and the
Palmer Divide. In addition, there will be frontogenesis that helps
to develop a few bands of snow that will orient themselves from
northwest to southeast. While the QPF won`t be very high with this
system over the foothills and plains, model soundings indicate an
isothermal layer in the dendritic growth zone that will lead to a
large dendritic growth layer. Therefore, snow ratios will be
rather high in this event and snowfall amounts appear to be in the
2-4 inch range in the Denver metro at the moment. The strong
northwesterly flow will create moderate snowfall in the mountains
with the highest amounts along the northwest slopes. The Park
Range and northern Front Range will likely see snowfall amounts in
the Winter Weather Advisory criteria. Travel conditions may be
poor to hazardous at times during the heavier bands of snowfall so
highlights may be needed.
The focus will then turn to the bitter cold weather expected
Thursday and Friday night. The fresh snow cover will aid with radiational
cooling and the exact low temperatures will be a result of
whether or not there will be cloud cover. If the system on
Thursday moves through on the quicker side of guidance, skies will
clear Thursday night and lows will bottom out. The ECMWF
ensembles have a mean low of 3 F at DIA Thursday night with some
members below zero. The NBM lows were on the warm side of guidance
so they were lower in the forecast a few degrees. After a quiet
weather day on Friday, temperatures will again be well below
normal Friday night. If winds end up being light Friday night,
lows could reach below zero in Denver and may approach the daily
record low of -2 F. The higher terrain will easily get below zero
each night with the mountain valleys potentially seeing the
negative teens.
Northwesterly flow aloft will slowly become more zonal this
upcoming weekend and into next week. There will be a long stretch
of dry weather with a good signal in the ensembles that
temperatures will warm to near normal and then above normal by the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 433 PM MST Mon Nov 14 2022
Light winds and VFR conditions are the rule for the next several
hours until late this evening. Light snow should move in after 10
PM across the terminals. ILS conditions with CIGs around 020 and
VIS 1-2SM are possible with the snow, and the best chance of snow
should be from 10 PM through around 4 AM. Air temperatures will be
cold, and runway temps should be below freezing such than any
snow that falls should stick. Snow amounts will be light, anywhere
from a trace to an inch. However, winds should be under 10 kts
during the snowfall. Any lingering light snow/flurries should
come to an end by 5 or 6 AM, with light SSW winds expected at the
terminals. VFR conditions should also return by 5 or 6 AM.
On Tuesday afternoon VFR conditions with north winds that could
gust >20 kts at DEN, but there should be much less wind at BJC
and APA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schlatter
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Danielson
AVIATION...Schlatter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
547 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
Key Messages:
* Area of light snow will continue to impact areas along and south
of the NE/KS state line through early evening. Accumulations are
expected to be 1 inch or less.
* Well below normal temperatures will continue across the regions
through the work week and into the weekend.
* Temperatures will start to increase toward normal around this
time next week, but there is still a lot of model spread so
exactly when this occurs is uncertain.
Forecast Details: There were no major changes regarding snow
today, but made some adjustments. Elected to use the RAP for PoPs in
the near term this afternoon and early evening as it seems to
have the best handle on the ongoing precipitation today. A band of
light snow has set up mainly over Rooks, Osborne, and Mitchell
counties in north central Kansas and extends into Thayer and parts
of Fillmore counties to the northeast. As expected, the low level
dry air to the north has stopped the advancement of this system to
really anywhere near the tri-cities. We continue to highlight the
potential for some impacts to highways across north central
Kansas.
With cloud cover expected to return this evening along with
another upper level shortwave, ended up increasing low
temperatures in the overnight forecast tonight. Still,
temperatures will be below normal with lows in the teens. With
that cloud cover and cold temperatures, we will probably see a
few flurries across portions of south central Nebraska tonight
through Tuesday morning. High temperatures will be in the 30s for
the most part, with a couple locations in north central Kansas
potentially getting into the 40s where clouds clear out a little
earlier in the day.
Some model guidance indicates that our next chance for
precipitation will be Thursday associated with an upper level
shortwave transiting across the central Plains. There isn`t great
model consensus regarding this though, and while a few places may
see a few flurries or even a light snow shower, confidence isn`t
high enough to add this to the forecast at this point.
Ensembles and model blends do continue to show moderating
temperatures starting the end of the weekend into at least early
next week. Ensemble spread for temperatures is high for that
entire period, especially Saturday and Sunday. Still, it is
becoming clearer that a warming trend is likely on the horizon,
with temperatures likely increasing to near normal (40s and 50s)
next week. The negative to this forecast is that other than the
occasional chance of flurries this week, this remains a dry
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 540 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
VFR conditions persist through the forecast period at KGRI and
KEAR terminals. Winds become light and variable overnight,
increasing to 7-12kt from the northwest after sunrise. Ceilings
are expected to lower as clouds move in from the west overnight.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Wekesser
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
558 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a
shortwave trough and weak low pressure moving northeast across
southern Minnesota early this afternoon. Widespread light snow is
occurring over Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin ahead of this
system. The leading edge of the light snow moved into north-
central WI around midday while cloud bases are falling elsewhere.
The 12z KGRB sounding showed ample dry air through the column
of which some of the lift will go towards eroding. But still think
will see light snow progress northeast from central to far
northeast Wisconsin this afternoon. Up to a half inch appears
possible by the start of the evening. A secondary system is moving
over the southern Plains and poised to move into the region on
Tuesday. Forecast concerns mainly revolve around snow
accumulations and timing.
Tonight...The lead shortwave trough will exit northeast WI by
mid-evening. Although moisture above 10kft will scour out behind
the shortwave, the moisture profile below this level will remain
nearly saturated through the night within a weak isentropic ascent
regime. In addition, low level southeast to east flow will
strengthen modestly, augmenting low level moisture and leading to
scattered snow showers/flurries over much of northeast WI through
the night. As a result, expect a mostly cloudy to overcast night
with occasional light snow and flurries for most locations.
Amounts will be very light and generally a half inch or less,
though some areas near the lakeshore or over north-central WI
could see up to an inch. Temps shouldn`t fall much and remain in
the 20s.
Tuesday...The southern Plains storm system will be lifting into
the Great Lakes. Deep saturation will overspread the region during
the morning which should lead to a return of widespread light
snowfall. Lift will be strongest over northeast WI where synoptic
scale lift will be enhanced by easterly flow off Lake Michigan.
Therefore think the highest precip rates will occur in the lake
enhanced bands over northeast WI. If the boundary layer were
colder, decent snow fall would be possible. But with temps
forecast to warm into the middle 30s with surface wet bulb temps
above freezing, some accumulations will be lost to melting.
Snowfall accumulations are looking to be around an inch at most
locations, perhaps a little higher where lake bands set up, and a
little lower over far north-central WI. Highs will range from the
low to mid 30s.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
Jet streaks moving around the upper trough over the Western Great
lakes will produce periods of snow showers at times through the
end of the week. Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees below
normal Wednesday, and 10 to 15 degrees colder than average the
remainder of the week.
Cold, easterly winds in low and mid levels of the atmosphere will
produce lake enhanced snow across eastern Wisconsin Tuesday night
through about midday Wednesday. 3 to 5 inches of snow look likely
over parts of the Door Peninsula as well as Oconto and Marinette
counties by midday Wednesday, with 1 to 3 inches elsewhere.
Snow showers will be most common across the Northwoods Thursday
through Saturday, but conditions are not ideal for significant
lake effect snow in that area.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 552 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
An upper level disturbance will continue to bring light snow and
MVFR/IFR VSBYs to areas northwest of a line from MFI-IMT early
this evening, but the snow should taper off before 9 pm.
In addition, southeast to east winds off Lake Michigan should
bring some lake-enhanced snow or mixed rain/snow showers to parts
of eastern WI later this evening and into the overnight hours.
Another more significant upper level disturbance will bring
widespread wintry precipitation to the region starting around
mid-morning Tuesday. Most places should deteriorate to IFR
once the steadier snows arrive.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1053 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022
No changes planned to the forecast for tonight into Tuesday.
Latest HRRR still shows the bulk of the snow developing after 12z
Tuesday morning. We are still looking at a widespread snow (1-3"
in most locations by Wednesday morning) developing on Tuesday in
advance of a mid level shortwave that drives in from the south and
southwest. At 850mb a low moves towards Detroit from Northern
Indiana Tuesday into Tuesday night and at the surface a low moves
from the Ohio Valley to Western Lake Erie. Given the track of
these features, the heaviest precipitation will be from the I-94
corridor towards the I-96 corridor. We should stay mainly snow
given soundings that are primarily sub freezing. Surface
temperatures appear to be in the lower to middle 30s on Tuesday
which should lead to mainly wet roads. The equation changes
Tuesday night as the surface temperatures dip to near and below
+32F. Some icy spots and slippery travel may develop Tuesday
night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022
--Occasional Snow Tuesday into Wednesday; 1-4" accums--
Potent negatively tilted srn stream shortwave lifting northeast
from OK spreads snow showers into the area on Tuesday and is
followed by another (nrn stream) shortwave Tuesday night. The
second one is currently diving into the west side of the main
longwave trough over the center of the nation. Yet another third
wave rotating through that upper trough follows for Wednesday, so
we are looking at a prolonged period of widespread/frequent
synoptic snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday.
Snow accumulation and travel impact potential is problematic with
this system for a few reasons. First, the snow is expected to
have a banded/non-uniform character as it arrives due to FGEN
forcing within the deformation zone. Second, the OK shortwave is
weakening/shearing as it arrives, and third, sfc temps will be
marginal with highs temps Tuesday in the mid or perhaps upr 30s.
This may cause to the snow to mix with rain. Also ground temps
are still warm so accumulating snow may be difficult to do during
the daylight hours Tuesday-- unless any heavier rates set up under
any FGEN bands.
Potential for travel impacts may ramp up Tuesday night though as
sfc temps fall back to around or just below freezing. Snow will
have more of a chance to accumulate after dark with bridges and
overpasses most susceptible to slick spots. The other thing to
consider Tuesday night is possible enhancement from Lake Huron in
cyclonic northeast low level flow, as well as enhanced sfc
convergence along the east-west oriented sfc trough hanging back
over Lwr MI from the east coast low. HREF guidance suggests the
possibility of 3-4 inches in the MOP/AMN/LAN areas.
Model QPF decreases on Wednesday and snow showers should become
scattered by that time. However we will have to watch the wind
direction closely for later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Guidance is hinting at the possibility of heavier lake effect
returning to the southwest corner of Lwr MI as the low-level flow
becomes NNW. Decent lake enhanced accums could set up in Van Buren
and wrn Allegan; possibly other parts of the lakeshore too.
--Heavy Lake Effect Snow Possible Thursday through Sunday--
Ideal set-up will be in place Thursday through Sunday to see some
potentially significant lake effect snow and travel impacts. Deep
upper trough will be overhead with near record cold sweeping in
from the west and several shortwaves passing through. The Lk MI
water temp is still near 10C at the srn buoy which would create
extreme instability by Friday when air colder than -15C is
arriving from the west.
Warm ground and marginal sfc temps may limit accumulation/impact
potential initially on Thursday but projected highs in the 20s
Friday through Sunday could certainly lead to some problems on
area roads. At that point the lingering warmth of the ground may
actually make matters worse as the falling/melting snow quickly
re-freezes. We could be looking at a treacherous combination of
ocnl near whiteouts and icy roads over the weekend, with westerly
flow sometimes carrying the bands well inland. There could also
be some periods of enhanced low-level FGEN at the interface
between the lake modified air and colder non-lake modified air
that sometimes sneaks around the bottom of the lake and into our
southeast CWFA in these colder air outbreaks.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 706 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022
The main weather feature to affect the area the next 24 hours will
be a low pressure system moving from the Ohio Valley northeast to
Western Lake Erie by Tuesday evening. VFR weather is expected to
prevail tonight with light easterly winds under 10 knots and VFR
ceilings at or above 4,000 feet.
The low will spread snow into the area from north to south Tuesday
morning between 12z and 15z. Conditions will quickly trend to MVFR
during this time frame with all sites in the MVFR category by
midday/16z. IFR and LIFR conditions are likely during the bulk of
the afternoon and early evening hours as ceilings try to trend
towards 1,000 feet and visibilities trend towards 1 mile. We may
need to trend TAFs more pessimistic in later issuance`s, in terms
of ceilings below 1,000 feet and vsbys below 1 mile.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022
Prolonged period of hazardous conditions expected on Lk MI
starting Wed night and lasting through Sunday with brisk westerly
flow. Periods of gales can`t be ruled out Friday-Fri night with
arrival of coldest air. We may even have some freezing spray at
times over the weekend.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Duke
DISCUSSION...Meade
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...Meade
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
901 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
A widespread area of light snow is expected late tonight into
Tuesday across central and southeast Illinois, with a few inches
possible west of I-55. Additional snow showers are expected
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons as fast moving disturbances zip
across the area, though any accumulations will be minor. The cold
weather pattern will stick around for several days, with potential
for near zero wind chills by the end of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
Very little in the way of updates is needed this evening as the
approaching upper level wave and associated snow is well on track,
heading into MO and IA at present, with no observations of snow
quite reaching the Mississippi River yet in these states. 00Z
HREF ensembles have delayed arrival of snow ever so slightly
through early morning, but not enough to alter PoPs. Snowfall
rates have also shrunk ever so slightly, but snowfall measurements
behind the system are consistent with previous forecasts, so have
no plans to back off precipitation amounts. Still expecting
measurable snow to start in west central IL mainly after
midnight, spreading northeastward across central IL through 3-4
AM, with heaviest snowfall rates 3 to 9 am over most of the area.
Current temperatures are mid to upper 30s, only scheduled to fall
a few more degrees overnight, leaving areas south of I-70 in
potential for a rain/snow mix, struggling to reach the freezing
mark.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
Key messages for this period:
1) Snowfall amounts bumped up a bit, requiring a northward
expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory.
2) Main impacts starting around 2-3 am near I-72 and across the
Peoria metro toward sunrise.
3) Snowfall rates should average around a quarter inch per hour,
but will be around a half inch per hour in the heavier bands.
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave moving
across northern Texas and western Oklahoma. This will lift
northeast and should be moving into central Illinois before
sunrise. Still quite a bit of dry air currently in place as far
away as southern Missouri, so some top-down moistening will need
to take place in our area. Latest HRRR and NAM Nest tries to bring
in some light snow from Springfield westward as early as 8-9 pm,
though more of the impacts will be after midnight there as upper
level forcing increases across west central Illinois. Further
north, impacts along the Illinois River valley start increasing
after 3-4 am. Latest NBM guidance suggests snowfall rates may
reach a half inch per hour in the heavier bands between 3-7 am.
Given the first significant snow of the season in that area and
the impacts coming around rush hour, we have expanded the Winter
Weather Advisory northward, to include Galesburg-Bloomington
northward, with total accumulations of 2-3 inches in the advisory
area. Wild card will be the pavement temperatures, which likely
remain somewhat elevated with the recent warm spell. Air
temperatures will likely be around 30-32 degrees while the snow is
flying, Main impacts may be on bridges and overpasses where
ground temperature isn`t a factor, but if the snow falls heavy
enough, the main roads would have some impacts as well.
By midday Tuesday, the main bands of snow should be north of the
I-74 corridor, however some increase in light rain/snow is
expected again northwest of the Illinois River as a separate
wave swings ahead of the upper low dropping southward into the
Dakotas. Have increased PoP`s across that area late afternoon into
the early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
Main highlight for this period is the unseasonably cold air mass
that will remain firmly in place. Lobes of Arctic air will
continue to drop into the Midwest through Sunday, with the coldest
weather on Friday as 850 mb temperatures drop to around -17C.
Extreme Forecast Index off the ECMWF is down to -0.8 to -0.9 late
week. Wind chills Friday and Saturday mornings are likely to
drop to near zero across central Illinois, with air temperatures
in the mid teens. A number of areas have record lows in the single
digits on Friday, though a few may be within reach around
Springfield and Peoria. Some moderation is expected early next
week as the upper flow starts to come more from the Pacific
Northwest, and the 8-14 day outlook trends more toward near normal
temperatures.
Precipitation-wise, a few shortwaves will swing across the region
through mid week. Have added some scattered snow showers to the
forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. A last wave arrives on
Saturday evening, though only the Canadian model is showing any
precipitation at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
Deteriorating conditions expected after 06Z as an area of light
snow overspreads central Illinois. Between 09-12Z, visibility and
ceilings expected to drop to IFR levels. While the visibility
significantly improves after 16Z as the snow moves out, the
ceilings will likely remain IFR through 00Z, perhaps for a few
days. Winds E-NE 4-8 kts through at least 18Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST
Tuesday for ILZ027>031-036>038-040>042-047>051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...37
SYNOPSIS...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...37
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
732 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Through early this evening)
Issued at 310 PM EST MON NOV 14 2022
Two processes are at play this afternoon with the SN falling
across portions of the U.P. Band that has been nearly stationary
just off of the Marquette shoreline and stretching into the
Keweenaw Peninsula is lake-driven whereas synoptically-driven SN
is increasingly moving into the W and S-C. Although the CMC-reg
has had a sufficient handle on that aforementioned band, the
previous run, 06z, had a better placement than the 12z run. The
12z HRRR has had the best handle overall, with both models
indicating the band finally getting kicked N as the afternoon
continues to progress. This appears to be due to the incoming
synoptic push, with a ML vort max/UL trough axis providing the
kick it needs to move from its current position. SN from the S and
W will continue overspreading the Wrn two-thirds of the forecast
area by tonight, with Lake Michigan providing an enhancement into
at least Delta and Schoolcraft counties. Luce County may be the
only county to not see precip reaching the ground until after this
forecast period. As for accums, highest accums will occur within
the highlighted band area, with less than an inch anticipated
elsewhere through sunset. Warmest temps are found in the S-C in
the Ern U.P. as well as along the Lake Superior shoreline,
particularly E of the Keweenaw. Highs have/are topping out in
these warmer areas in the low to mid 30s, with upper 20s to
generally less than the freezing mark in much of the Wrn portions.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM EST MON NOV 14 2022
Some light snow showers expand a little more into the western UP
tonight as a low pressure over the Northern Plains digs towards the
Chicago area; expect less than an inch of accumulation from this
snowfall. Some southeasterly upslope flow may bring some modest
snow bands off of Lake MI over northern Menominee, Delta, and far
southern Marquette counties tonight. These bands may bring an
inch, maybe two, of snow to these areas. Otherwise, a strong snow
band over Lake Superior (impacting the Keweenaw this afternoon)
looks to slowly lift north over the Copper Country tonight. As it
does, expect it to only really remain in Keweenaw County a couple
of hours after 00z tonight; that being said, some heavy snowfall
rates could be seen north of the Keweenaw/Houghton County border
tonight into Tuesday. Visibilities could be greatly reduced and
snowfall could accumulate quickly in this heavy snow band.
Therefore, take caution if you must travel tonight (and possibly
Tuesday too) if you are going through Keweenaw County.
Moving into Wednesday, easterly flow sets up across the area. As it
does so, expect lake-enhanced snow showers to begin moving over the
south central. Some of the snow showers in Delta and Menominee
counties may be heavy, as CAM composite reflectivities show 30+dbzs
across the area Tuesday afternoon (the HRRR shows 40+dbzs!). While
high temps are expected to just peak above freezing across most of
the area Tuesday, with snow bands that intense, snowfall could
quickly accumulate on roads and greatly reduce visibilities to 1/4
mile or less. Therefore, if you must drive in the south central
tomorrow afternoon and evening, be sure to have your low-beam
headlights on and to leave plenty of space between the car in front
of you and yourself. As the low pressure begins to lift through
Lower MI Tuesday night, the flow over the area becomes
northeasterly. This should shift the heavier snow bands over Lake MI
to around the city of Menominee. In addition, some light lake-
enhanced snowfall looks to start up over the north central UP
Tuesday night, with the Michigamme Highlands seeing slightly higher
snowfall rates due to upslope flow from the lake. As the low
pressure continues to lift away from the region Wednesday, expect
the flow to become northerly by the afternoon and northwesterly by
the evening.
Model guidance shows a mesoscale low setting up over western Lake
Superior Wednesday night ahead of an approaching shortwave. As
that shortwave moves over Upper MI Thursday and Thursday night,
expect heavy snowfall rates to be wrapped around the center of the
mesolow, particularly on its western side. As the mesolow moves
east over the lake Thursday, some heavy snow showers could be seen
as it moves over the Keweenaw. Otherwise, some light snow showers
are expected across the UP Thursday as the shortwave moves
through (with some lake-enhancement being possible in the W to NW
snow belts).
Behind this shortwave, west to northwest flow sets up across the
Upper Great Lakes, continuing snow showers across these snow belts.
However, in the areas outside of the west to northwest snow belts,
temps could become quite frigid for this time of year, as ensemble
guidance shows temps approaching the 5th percentile of modeled
climatology. Therefore, while the clouds may help to moderate
nightly temps a little over the west to northwest snow belts this
weekend, we may see low temps dip into the single digits starting
Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 726 PM EST MON NOV 14 2022
Looks like conditions are already improving at CMX with the heavy
snow band lifting north. They have rebounded to MVFR and generally
expect them to stay MVFR through the period under an easterly
onshore flow. At IWD and SAW, conditions should lower to MVFR
this evening with the arrival of an upper disturbance and maybe
some light snow. Expect prevailing MVFR conditions to continue at
IWD and SAW through much of the period.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 358 PM EST MON NOV 14 2022
A few SE to E`rly gusts up to 25 knots are possible tonight and
Tuesday near Isle Royale as a low pressure digs SE towards Chicago.
Once the low begins lifting through Lower MI Tuesday night, expect
winds to become generally 20 knots or less. These light winds
continue until around Thursday night, when NW`rly winds pick up to
25 knots behind a shortwave leaving Lake Superior. W to NW`rly wind
gusts up to 25 knots are possible through this weekend as another
shortwave moves through Saturday.
With well below normal temps moving through the Upper Great Lakes
region this weekend, some moderate freezing spray is possible Friday
night into Sunday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
for MIZ012.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...lg
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...TAP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
545 PM MST Mon Nov 14 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 PM MST Mon Nov 14 2022
I have updated the pops across the Pikes Peak Region (PPR) for the
early morning hours of Tuesday (i.e., later tonight). Short range
guidance is indicating a better chance of some light snow over
this region, especially the northern half of Teller county and the
northwest sections of El Paso county. I would not be too surprised
if a few of these areas get an inch or so of snow by sunrise
tomorrow morning. /Hodanish
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM MST Mon Nov 14 2022
Key Messages:
1) A broad trough aloft will pass overhead. Its associated cold
front increases PoPs over Teller and El Paso County during the
overnight tonight - accumulations will be very light.
2) The same broad trough keeps lingering snow showers over the
mountains with the best chances over the higher peaks of the eastern
mountains.
Meteorological Discussion:
Some snow showers have materialized over the middle Arkansas River
Valley, the Continental Divide, and the San Luis Valley (SLV).
Looking at the HRRR and the SPC mesoanalysis page`s snow squall
parameter, there are fairly high values within that parameter over
the southern eastern San Juan Mountains. We`ve blended the QPF with
the HRRR, which places the strongest band over the southeaster San
Luis Valley and the southern San Juans. So during the current
through evening period there may be very localized moderate to heavy
snow bands limiting visibility and creating hazardous travel
conditions.
A second broad trough that is associated with a closed low located
over the north-central plains will propagate over southern Colorado
tomorrow, but ahead of the upper trough its associated cold front
will push over the plains early tomorrow morning. As the front
passes overhead the PoPs increase to isolated and scattered from
around midnight through around 6am over Teller and El Paso Counties.
Snowfall amounts will not amount to much, less than a quarter of an
inch.
The trough axis will pass overhead from mid-morning on Tuesday
through shortly after the short term forecast period ends (5pm
Tuesday), which keeps isolated PoPs over the higher elevations and
scattered PoPs over the higher peaks of the eastern mountains,
including the Pikes Peak region, the Wet Mountains, and the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains. Precipitation should remain confined to the
topography, however.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the teens over the plains, the
single digits to low teens over the mountain valleys, and below zero
over the mountains. Highs warm up a little tomorrow with the upper
30s to low 40s over the plains and mountain valleys, whereas the
mountains will remain in the single digits to teens.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM MST Mon Nov 14 2022
Key Messages:
1) Another chance for snow Thursday afternoon through Friday
2) Temperatures well below normal through Saturday, then warmer.
Tuesday night...Upper shortwave will exit the state to the south-
southeast Tue evening, with just some isolated showers over the
southern mts and Raton Mesa until around midnight. Any additional
snowfall is expected to be very light. After midnight, skies will be
clearing with north-northwest flow settling in and it will be a very
cold night with overnight lows of around 0 to 10 above for the high
valleys, and 10 to 20F for the plains.
Wednesday through Thursday morning...Cool but dry north to northwest
flow settles in across the region, with another stronger upper
shortwave approaching from the north for Thu. Until then, expect dry
conditions with highs in the 30s to around 40F for the high valleys,
and mid 30s to mid 40s for the plains.
Thursday afternoon through Friday...A cold front pushes south across
the Palmer Divide around midday Thu, with increasing cloud cover and
isolated to scattered showers developing from north to south through
the afternoon and evening. The upper disturbance crosses the
forecast area Fri morning, continuing to produce isolated showers
for the higher terrain and much of the plains through the day due to
the persistent easterly upslope flow at the surface. Not a lot of
new snowfall is expected with this system, but a significant drop in
temperatures is forecast. Maximum temps on Thu are expected to only
warm into the 30s to near 40F for most areas, then the 20s to lower
30s for Fri.
Saturday through Monday...Dry conditions and sunny skies are
anticipated over the weekend and into the next work week, as cool
northwest flow aloft transitions to a more westerly direction Sun
and Mon. It will still be rather cool on Sat, with highs in the 30s
for the high valleys and mid 30s to lower 40s for the plains. Temps
then start to warm, with Sun highs forecast in the mid 30s to mid
40s for the high valleys and 40s for the plains. On Mon, plan on
upper 30s to upper 40s for the high valleys, and mid 40s to lower
50s for the plains. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 237 PM MST Mon Nov 14 2022
KALS:
A snow band has been resolved persistently by higher resolution
models over the southern San Luis Valley, so a TEMPO group will
continue through portions of the evening tonight with MVFR and IFR
conditions possible. After the bands end tonight, dry conditions are
expected over KALS, however VCSH is possible tomorrow afternoon as a
broad trough passes overhead.
KCOS and KPUB:
A weak cold front is expected to pass overhead during the overnight
tonight, which increases snow chances for KCOS but not KPUB. So a
chance during the overnight period for very light snow resulting is
a low end chance for MVFR conditions. As a broad trough passes
overhead, the higher peaks of the eastern mountains are expected to
get light snowfall, which will keep VCSH over KCOS, but the cell
tracks will be from north to south, so we are not expecting snow
over KCOS or KPUB tomorrow. VFR conditions are expected throughout
the forecast period with the exception of the aforementioned time
period for KCOS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...SKELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
900 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold weather persists this week. A southern system brings mixed
wintry precipitation changing to rain Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Upslope snow event Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 900 PM Monday...
Lowered overnight temperatures a bit to reflect current trends.
This had little impact on the morning ice forecast, other than
to increase confidence in the advisory a bit.
As of 705 PM Monday...
Forecast on track, as southern stream system approaches from
the lower and mid Mississippi Valley. Area temperatures were
already down to or below freezing in spots.
As of 525 PM Monday...
Tacked on a sliver in our central mountains to the winter
weather advisory from 5 AM until 1 PM Tuesday, based on HRRR
ensemble and MET guidance, which better depicts temperatures in
the cold air damming regime. Likewise, removed ice in southwest
Virginia, outside the cold air damming wedge, where morning
temperatures should climb above freezing in time for arrival of
precipitation there.
As of 1230 PM Monday...
Quiet day although well below your average temperatures which
will continue to trend this way. Another night of cold
temperatures is in the forecast along with the advection of
clouds to deter any fog formation and possibly radiational
cooling, however the clouds will tend to be mid to high clouds,
therefore we could get some extra cooling still. A broad upper
level trough will sweep a storm system across the region which
will spread very good chances for precipitation possibly by mid
morning to our southern parts of the County Warning Area,
especially across the Coal Fields. Depending on how early
hydrometeors fall, will determine if a wintry mix will start off
in the lowlands. Although this will be short lived quickly
changing over to an all rain regime. The mountains will be a
mixed bag of wintry precipitation starting off as a mix, then
freezing rain, then just rain until the late evening when
temperatures fall just enough to bring back a wintry mix.
Snow accumulations going into the evening will be on the lighter
side, possibly 1-2 inches in the northeast mountains with little
to none elsewhere. The main issue is ice accumulation in that
same area which will be limited to the highest elevations and
right around a tenth of an inch through the day. This may
warrant an advisory or at the very least an SPS which will be
determined in the very near future.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Monday...
The southern stream system will pull out of the region Tuesday
evening bringing an end to the precipitation, including any
lingering freezing rain in the higher elevations of the
mountains. Any additional freezing rain accumulations should
just be a few hundreths.
Colder air will filter in behind the system. This will create an
upslope event for Wednesday into Wednesday night. An upper level
disturbance Wednesday night will combine with the upslope flow
to provide some enhancement to the snow. Looking at 1-3 inches
in the higher elevations, with even the lowlands possibly seeing
a dusting of snow.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Monday...
An upper level trough will remain over the region through the
period, keeping cold air well below normal for this time of
year. A couple of disturbances will combine with a northwest
upslope wind flow to create a chance for snow at times, more
likely in the northern mountains of West Virginia.
Unfortunately, models do have disagreements on the timing and
strength of these disturbances.
High pressure does eventually build over the area by Monday, but
models disagree how cold it will be at that point.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 705 PM Monday...
A VFR night is on tap, as clouds increasing ahead of a system
approaching from the southwest should preclude a repeat of the
fog that formed at southern sites this morning.
Rain will quickly overspread the area midday Tuesday, with MVFR
ceilings and visibility beginning 15-17Z south and 17-18Z
northern sites. Widespread IFR visibility in a cold rain is then
expected much of the afternoon Tuesday, with ceilings lowering
to IFR across the middle Ohio Valley after 20Z, with BKW on the
edge of IFR ceilings on southeast flow Tuesday afternoon.
A wintry mix is expected for the higher elevations but should
not affect any of the sites.
Light and variable to northeast surface flow across the
lowlands tonight will become light southeast Tuesday. Light
southeast flow in the mountains will become gusty along the
ridges including at BKW, where sustained winds around 10 kts
will gust into the 15 to 20 kt range, even a bit higher
overnight. Light south flow aloft tonight will strengthen to
moderate during the day Tuesday, while starting to veer to the
southwest Tuesday afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions will likely vary with the
onset of precipitation on Tuesday.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible Tuesday night in stratus, and also
mixed wintry precipitation for the higher elevations. IFR
possible in snow showers in the mountains Wednesday into
Thursday, even briefly out across the lowlands Wednesday night
into Thursday morning.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
WVZ516-518.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST
Wednesday for WVZ523-524-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/JZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM