Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/11/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
415 PM MST Thu Nov 10 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 116 PM MST Thu Nov 10 2022
20Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated strong closed
upper level low moving across the eastern Dakotas with large scale
troughing across the rest of the Rockies. At the surface overnight
cold front had nearly cleared the entire state of Kansas,
approaching KPTS at 20Z.
Short term period overall looks fairly quiet with another surge
of cold air expected to slide across the area tonight dropping
temperatures into the teens and keeping temps in the 30s on
Friday.
With the frontal passage, weak short wave trough is expected to
drift across southern portion of the area. Point soundings
indicate some potential instability present, but low confidence
that lift will be sufficient enough to actually realize any of
this. Feel most likely scenario will be for area of light snow to
develop along the Palmer Divide in the overnight hours where push
of cold air will also have maximized orographic lift. A few of
these showers may make it as far east as Flagler and Kit Carson,
but do not expect much in the way of accumulations.
Otherwise expect dry conditions to prevail through the rest of the
period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM MST Thu Nov 10 2022
Despite an active pattern in the long term period, the main impact
for our area continues to be below to well-below normal temperatures
forecast throughout. Slight chance for snow at times during the
period, though any accumulation is currently expected to be minimal.
Saturday morning the upper level trough has shifted east, with its
axis running from Louisiana up through Iowa/Wisconsin. Upper-level
ridging is centered from the Four Corners region to Montana with
another low pressure system arriving just onshore Oregon/Northern
California. In our area, under mostly clear skies, low temperatures
Saturday morning fall into the upper-single digits to mid-teens with
wind chills from near 0 into the mid-teens. Expect high temperatures
to warm into the low-40s to mid-50s, approximately 5-10 degrees
below normal.
Northwesterly flow aloft shifts more zonal to slightly southwesterly
Saturday night into Sunday as the broad trough that was the source
of our strong cold front Wednesday night continues east, the one low
center previously just coming onshore the west coast continues south-
southeast, and another low center out of Canada slides southeast
into Montana/North Dakota, effectively compressing the ridge. A
surface low develops in the lee of the Rockies with surface flow
over Kansas becoming slightly breezy out of the south before
shifting north. Morning low temperatures Sunday range from mid-teens
to mid-20s with wind chills from the middle-single digits to middle-
teens. Some uncertainty exists in timing of cold front passage
across the area, resulting in lower confidence in forecast high
temperatures for Sunday. Currently have mid-40s for the northwest
portion of the area to mid-50s for the southeast portion. Slight
chance Sunday night into Monday for snow and rain/snow, mainly for
southern portions of the area, some minimal snow accumulation
possible (quarter inch or below).
On into Monday, the upper low center to the south swings through New
Mexico, opening up into the larger trough as it moves through Texas
and continues east. The stronger low center remains over the north
central CONUS into Canada. A third low just coming over/near the
western CONUS starts to become encompassed by the broader trough.
The ECMWF and GFS model solutions diverge here in how these features
continue to evolve. Morning lows fall back to around 10-20 degrees
and much colder high temperatures are expected Monday, only reaching
the mid-30s to low-40s, nearly 15-20 degrees below normal. Cold
temperatures continue through the remainder of the forecast period,
with morning lows from near 10 degrees or just below to the mid to
upper-teens and afternoon highs in the 30s and 40s. Record low
maximum temperatures for November 15th (Tuesday) are in the upper-
20s to near 30 degrees, within 5-7 degrees of current forecast
highs. Left slight PoPs (15-20%) along and west of the Colorado
border for Tuesday morning, up to a half inch snow accumulation
possible. Tuesday night the extreme southwestern corner of the
forecast area has slight PoPs with around a quarter inch snow
accumulation possible.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 410 PM MST Thu Nov 10 2022
KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A weather
disturbance northwest of the forecast area at the beginning of the
period will move southeast over the area during the night and away
from the area Friday. For the KGLD terminal, expect an increase in
clouds with no precipitation forecast. Northeast winds around
10kts at taf issuance will back to the north around 10kts by 06z,
backing slightly to the northwest at speeds around 12kts from
14z-21z. After 22z, a light north to northwest wind is expected.
KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. North winds
around 10kts at taf issuance will continue through sunrise Friday
morning. Northwest winds up to 10kts are expected from 11z-16z,
increasing slightly to around 12kts from 17z-21z. After 22z, winds
decrease below 11kts from the northwest.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1102 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and possibly isolated tornados expected tonight into Friday
as Nicole passes by well to our west while temperatures remain
above normal. Saturday will also be warm ahead of a cold front
that pushes through at night. The remainder of the weekend and
into next week will be cool with chilly nights. The next cold
front may arrive Tuesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Latest Update...
Tornado Watch remains in effect thru 1 am EST Fri.
POPs have been altered slightly...following more closely to the
latest HRRR and especially of it`s depiction of pcpn
approaching from the south later in the predawn Fri hrs that
traverses the ILM CWA thru late Fri daytime morning. This
associated with a spiraling Depression Nicole band. A new
Tornado Watch may be needed for this band. Onshore flow has
also pushed hier temps and dewpoints and as a result, most were
tweaked hier thru the overnight and blending into daytime Fri.
Strong SCA continues for the area waters with winds slowly
veering from E to SE overnight at SCA speeds. Seas remain quite
elevated with double digit heights especially across the outer
waters off Cape Fear and Romain respectively. Dominant periods
are running 9 to 11 seconds which makes the waves quite steep.
808pm Update...
Tornado Watch Number 567 in effect thru 100am EST Friday for
portions of Southeast NC and Northeast SC. Various forecasts and
statements have been updated.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Waves of showers are spreading northwestward across the Carolinas as
tropical air is advected up around the circulation of Tropical Storm
Nicole. Nicole should continue to gradually weaken as its center
moves into south Georgia tonight and then northward toward the
southern Appalachians Friday afternoon. Tonight`s low temperatures
(65-70 degrees) will likely occur this evening, with steady to
slowly rising temperatures overnight. Dewpoints surging into the 70s
are quite unusual for mid November, but precipitable water values in
excess of 2 inches will be among the highest values ever seen this
late in the year at the Charleston and Morehead City upper air
sites.
Despite the plentiful moisture, forecast rainfall amounts are only
around 1 inch. Given the very dry antecedent conditions (one month
past rainfall is only 15-20 percent of normal) no flooding is
forecast even if all the expected rain fell at once. Occasional
showers should continue to spread across the area tonight, but may
fragment into scattered activity on Friday as drier air arrives
aloft during the day.
Surface-based instability growing to 300-700 J/kg overnight and 0-1
km helicity values rising over 200 m^2/s^2 are concerning from the
standpoint of possible tornadoes overnight into Friday. The period
of highest concern appears to develop after midnight as a pseudo-
warm front moves northwestward across the area and will serve as a
focus for locally maximized helicity. The only tornado we saw during
Hurricane Ian occurred along a similar boundary in Brunswick County,
NC. The 12 UTC HREF composite updraft helicity shows this trend as
well, with the region of largest concern moving northeastward across
the Cape Fear area Friday morning then out into far-eastern NC
during the afternoon.
Enough sun should reach the ground within the dry slot Friday
afternoon to mix down non-convective wind gusts of 35-40 mph. Highs
should reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees on Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Final ribbon of moisture moving through Friday night, POPs seemingly
only needed through about 06Z. Light SW winds keep lows well above
climatology and similarly warm the afternoon hours into the upper
70s. Cold front comes through Saturday night and while the GFS does
show a little QPF but the rain-free WRF looks more plausible given
the time of day as well as the dynamic forcing passing mostly to the
north. Saturday night cooler due to post-frontal advection but still
a few degrees above climo.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold advection continues on Sunday bringing highs not far from 60; a
bit above at the coast and a bit below inland due to the orientation
of the low level baroclinicity. As the high builds and mixing
becomes less vigorous most areas will remain below 60, roughly 8
degrees below normal. The high remains well to our north through the
early week cool period so we never radiate, possibly precluding any
freezing temperatures but mid 30s may be common away from the water.
Tough temperature forecast Tuesday as the wedge may hold inland and
bring another unseasonably cool day but a warm front sneaks ashore
ahead of low pressure traveling east across the Gulf States. This
system will increase clouds and then rain chances Tuesday and
Wednesday. The system aloft driving this low really shears out so
QPF potential may be disappointing (given the current D1/D0).
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Looking at IFR/LIFR conditions,mainly from ceilings and the
occasional vsby drop from periodic showers thru the evening.
Could see a "dry spell", meaning just isolated showers but with
the continued widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings, later this evening
into the pre-dawn hrs. Pcpn spiraling around a slowly decaying
Nicole, that is poised to move up along or just east of the
spine of the Appalachians thru Fri, will approach from the
southeast through south, later in the pre-dawn Fri hrs. This
pcpn is likely to move onshore and across the various terminals
well into daylight Fri morning. This activity could yield an
isolated tornado, not enough probability to place in the
official TAFs, but enough to mention in this discussion.
Improving wx conditions FRi aftn into the evening as some
drier air gets entrained within the circulation. Will see a
veering in direction of the winds thru the period from a general
ENE-ESE this evening, to SE-S from predawn thru daytime morning
Fri, and S-SSW during the remainder of the fcst. Speeds
generally 10-15 with g20+ kt mainly at the coastal terminals
tonight, with 10-20 kt sustained and gusts approaching 30+ kt
from midday Fri thru the aftn.
Extended Outlook...Lingering MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible
Friday night, otherwise looking at mainly VFR thru the extended.
Dry CFP slated for Sat night with strong and dry high pressure
following.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Friday... Tropical Storm Nicole will gradually weaken as it
moves northward across the Florida Panhandle tonight and Georgia on
Friday. Despite the storm`s considerable distance west of our area,
the pressure gradient between Nicole and 1030 mb high pressure north
of Bermuda will maintain breezy conditions across the coastal waters
through Friday (and beyond) with a Small Craft Advisory continuing.
The fetch across open ocean extends for many hundreds of miles down
to the southeast Bahamas, maintaining sea heights in excess of 8
feet through Friday. If there is a silver lining in this forecast,
it`s that wind and wave conditions will very slowly improve over the
next 24 hours.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through the day Friday
as tropical moisture is thrown northward around Nicole. Isolated
waterspouts could occur, particularly tonight into Friday
morning.
Friday night through Tuesday...Pre-frontal SW winds drop below
advisory thresholds but the decrease in wave height lag that always
occurs will still necessitate headlines Friday night into Saturday.
A drop below 6ft is still expected later in the day, and then a
Saturday night cold frontal passage veers winds leading to steeper
wave faces but no headlines expected following FROPA. NE winds may
become a bit gusty on Tuesday as low pressure traverses the Gulf
States slightly pinching the gradient locally. A few 6 ft waves
returning will be tough to rule out at the end of the period.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for SCZ054-056.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...ILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
638 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 146 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
Cloud coverage continues to increase with additional moisture
moving into the area from Nicole. Should make it through the rest
of the afternoon and early evening without any rain, but do
expect showers to begin to arrive in our southeastern counties by
late this evening into the overnight hours. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will spread across the area overnight, before being
pulled eastward tomorrow. Showers will move out quickly from west
to east, leaving dry conditions for most by midday and finally
exiting the Plateau by tomorrow afternoon. In terms of total
precipitation, expect the highest amounts along the Plateau where
1 to 2 inches will be possible. Could be a few heavier bands that
set up west of the Plateau though, with up to an inch possible in
some locations.
An additional round of quick-moving showers will pass through
overnight Friday into the early morning hours on Saturday. With
falling temperatures across the area, can`t rule out a flurry or
two mixing in, especially across our northwestern counties.
Moisture will not stick around long and with warm surface
temperatures not expecting anything in terms of accumulation, just
a mention for those who wake up early on Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
Showers will move out about as fast as they came in Friday night,
with dry conditions for most of the area throughout the majority
of the day Saturday. Behind the frontal passage will be a much
colder and drier air mass, with highs on Saturday and Sunday
likely 15 to 20 degrees cooler than we have experienced this week.
Surface winds will become southerly again on Monday, allowing
temps to warm slightly compared to this weekend. We will remain
dry through Monday before an active weather pattern returns for
next week.
Still a lot of uncertainty pertaining to next week, especially
beyond next Tuesday as there are some pretty significant model
differences. Before then, models do have another fast-moving
trough coming through on Tuesday, bringing some precipitation
along with it. Right now, this has the set-up to be our first it`s
probably not going to snow but there is a chance of snow so I
must mention snow type of events. Cold air will be chasing the
moisture and we all know how that typically ends for our area.
For this reason, I will mention some flurries mixing in with rain
Tuesday morning, but not expecting much in terms of accumulation.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
Tropical storm "Nicole" is now located very close to Tallahassee
FL at this time. She is moving nw around 15 mph. The widespread
rainfall is moving into northwestern GA with a few very light
bands of showers and sprinkles northwestward toward middle TN.
Latest Hrrr data suggests that the widespread precip will make it
to middle TN, mainly after midnight. Not seeing much instability
for our area late tonight so tstm chances will remain low. Nicole
should begin to move more nne later tonight. Pop and wx grids for
our area still look good. QPF totals through Friday afternoon look
like 1 1/2 inches Plateau with just a third of an inch, or so,
far west. Most of the widespread precip should vacate the area by
late Friday afternoon. All in all, grids are looking good at this
point with no changes necessary.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 59 67 38 47 / 80 80 50 40
Clarksville 56 66 34 47 / 50 50 40 20
Crossville 56 63 37 44 / 80 100 50 50
Columbia 58 68 37 48 / 70 70 50 30
Cookeville 60 64 37 44 / 80 100 50 50
Jamestown 57 63 38 43 / 80 100 50 50
Lawrenceburg 59 67 37 48 / 80 80 50 30
Murfreesboro 59 66 37 47 / 80 80 40 40
Waverly 56 68 33 46 / 50 50 50 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adcock
LONG TERM....Adcock
AVIATION.....21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
819 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 809 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
The strong cold front continues to make southeastward progress
through the forecast area and is currently located just southeast
of the I-44 corridor. 3-hour temperature drops behind the front
are measuring 20 to 25 degrees, with a notable increase in
northerly winds, likely to continue into tomorrow. One of the
main updates this evening has been to increase wind speeds and
gusts tomorrow, using values from the NBM 90th percentile. Showers
continue to develop on the north side of the boundary, with an
increase in coverage noted to the southwest of the area in central
and southwest Oklahoma. Recent runs of the HRRR have backed off
some on the intensity of this development, which coincides well
with observational data also. Still expect most areas to see some
rain tonight, with the heaviest remaining in northeast Oklahoma
along with the ongoing stronger storms. Have also updated the
hourly POPs to slow the eastward shift in the primary rain axis
given radar trends. The threat for additional small to marginally
severe hail is dwindling with instability waning in most areas,
but parts of east central Oklahoma may still have a low chance
with any strong storms later this evening. Updates already out.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 1246 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
Much cooler air will settle into the area behind the cold front on
Friday. High temperatures are only expected to reach the mid 40s
across northeast OK and northwest AR, and the lower 50s for
southeast OK. In addition to the cooler air, brisk northerly winds
will continue. As the main upper level wave approaches on Friday
evening, precipitation chances will tick up slightly. The
combination of much cooler upper level temperatures, saturated mid
levels, and modest CVA should result in enough lift to squeeze out a
few showers, especially for southeast OK and northwest AR. By this
time the atmospheric column will be near or below freezing except
right at the surface, leading to the potential for a mixed or
perhaps all snow shower or two in the area. In the end, this should
be fairly inconsequential due to the very low likelihood of even
measurable precipitation at the surface (<10%) in most areas.
Cool and dry conditions will then persist until Monday with highs
in the 40s and 50s.
By Monday, our next item of concern comes into view as a compact
upper level low rotates around the parent longwave trough and into
the area. Unfortunately, model uncertainty remains high with respect
to the exact track that this upper level feature will take, and
whether it will begin filling in upon approach. As these differences
in storm track/strength will result in very different outcomes, it
is difficult to get too specific with potential forecast outcomes.
In general, in model solutions where the upper level low takes a
favorable track (just to the south of the area) and where the low
does not fill in much, the total precipitation is heavier. As the
airmass will be marginally cold enough for snow, sustained heavy
precip could result in a band of accumulating snow. Some of the
heavier model solutions have suggested that several inches of snow
might be possible. A more likely solution still appears to be that
the low will begin to open up on approach which would not allow for
the necessary precipitation rates to drive the snow level down to
the surface. This might result in more of a mixed precip or cold
rain situation. ECMWF EFI values continue to show values of less
than 0.5 but with a large SOT of 2-8 across the area. In other
words, most likely this will be a non-event, but there is a low
probability of something unusual and significant. It will continue
to bear watching in the days ahead so for now we will continue with
a mixed rain/snow forecast for Monday night. Behind this system,
cool and dry weather returns for at least a few days with highs
remaining in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
A cold front currently across northeast Oklahoma will sweep across
the forecast area this evening and tonight, bringing a shift to
northerly winds. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also
increase along and behind the front this evening as it progresses
southeast. Lower cigs, mainly MVFR will also accompany the
front/precipitation and last at least into the morning hours
tomorrow before beginning to lift and scatter out to some degree
tomorrow afternoon. Gusty northerly winds will continue through
much of the day tomorrow, before beginning to calm some toward
sunset tomorrow evening.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 38 46 26 47 / 90 10 10 0
FSM 49 54 32 50 / 60 30 20 0
MLC 42 49 28 48 / 90 30 20 0
BVO 34 45 24 45 / 90 0 0 0
FYV 40 49 23 45 / 60 40 20 0
BYV 40 47 25 43 / 70 40 10 0
MKO 40 47 26 46 / 100 20 10 0
MIO 34 44 23 42 / 100 10 0 0
F10 39 48 27 48 / 90 10 10 0
HHW 48 55 32 49 / 80 30 20 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04