Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/10/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
807 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022
Latest HRRR and radar trends continue to indicate that forecast
of potentially sig ice is still likely, so forecast remains on
track and no big changes are expected this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022
Soundings very supportive of freezing drizzle across the region this
afternoon, and we continue to see that in areas, especially along
and west of the James River where temps are the coldest. Winter
Weather Advisory for this threat remains in place until 00Z this
evening. Models still hitting the icing potential pretty hard
tonight, from the northern Coteau area southwest to around Pierre,
with amounts up to, or over one-quarter inch. Decided to upgrade to
an Ice Storm Warning, taking an impact-based approach as overall
snow totals continue to decline within the area of highest potential
ice totals. Have some doubts though on the southwest CWA ice totals,
with a little more variability shown in models on icing amounts down
there. Very good signal from Hand/Hyde/Faulk region northeast into
the northern Coteau for highest totals. Blizzard Warning will remain
in place for north central SD as snow totals continue to be fairly
high in the forecast, generally around 6 inches or perhaps higher.
Again, still some differences in just how quickly the storm exits on
Thursday, but trending for things to rapidly improve by afternoon,
so we may end up being on some of the lower end of the forecast
totals for snow/ice. Most of it (especially ice) will depend on
longevity and intensity of the initial slug of moisture as it moves
through during the overnight hours, mainly between 03Z and 12Z. Any
blowing snow impacts still look to affect mainly north central SD,
where snow amounts continue to look the highest. Any wrap-around
snow lingers longest in this area as well. Overall, not the highest
confidence forecast due to the complexity with differing precip
types, and toughness in determining just how long precip lingers
into the day Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022
Tail end of the system is just departing the CWA to open the
extended. High pressure moves overhead Friday night for what will
likely be the coldest night of the period, and while that high
pressure system lingers into Saturday night, a lee low develops to
the south resulting in increased southeast low level flow for
Sunday. Some evidence in guidance for a period of snowfall to the
north of this lee low as it ejects into the central plains Sunday
night/Monday associated with a shortwave pivoting around the broad
upper low over the northeast CONUS and a mid level baroclinic zone.
The upper flow develops into a semi-permanent southwest to northeast
oriented trough later in the period.
Low level temperatures fail to recover much late in the period
thanks to this northerly steering flow. 850mb temperatures are a
standard deviations below climo starting Friday and that trend will
persist through the entirety of the forecast, and as such it looks
more like climo for January than mid November.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
FZRA/SN along with IFR cigs/vsbys are expected to spread across
the region overnight.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for SDZ008-
019>023.
Blizzard Warning until midnight CST Thursday night for SDZ003-
004-009-015.
Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for SDZ005-010-016-017-
033>037-045-048-051.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for
SDZ005-010-016-017-033>037-045-048-051.
Ice Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for SDZ006-007-011-018.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for
SDZ006-007-011-018.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1026 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Cyclone Nicole is expected to impact the area Thursday
into Friday. A cold front will sweep across the region this
weekend, with high pressure building in its wake.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1020 PM, KCLX detected a few light returns across the
coastal waters, tracking rapidly to the SW. The returns were
decreasing as they approach the radar, indicating that lower dry
air remains across the region. Latest run of the HRRR,
indicates that deeper moisture and more cellular returns will
develop around midnight. The forecast will indicate CHC PoPs
over the waters late this evening, approaching the coast late
tonight. In addition, temperatures this evening have been
running a bit warmer than forecast, hourly temps will be updated
to align with the latest observations.
Tonight: Tropical Storm Nicole is forecast to make landfall along
the southeast Florida coast in the early morning hours as Nicole
heads west underneath the mid-level ridge. As this occurs, the
coastal front will start to collapse with low level overrunning
increasing. As this occurs, PWATs will slowly rise to 1.75" - 2" by
sunrise Thursday. As the prior dry air is eroded away, this will
allow for the coverage of showers to spread onshore such that 60-80
percent rain chances are in place along the coast by late tonight.
We could even see an isolated thunderstorm or two, mainly further
south along the Georgia coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday: The National Hurricane Center`s latest forecast has
Tropical Storm Nicole making landfall along the southeastern Florida
coastline late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Nicole will
then move northwestward across Florida. An upper level ridge is
forecast to break down across the eastern U.S. and a trough will
swing eastward, along with a surface cold front. Nicole will get
captured by the trough, driving it to the northeast as it merges
with the cold front at the surface late Thursday night. As Nicole
moves northeastward it is forecast to undergo Extratropical
Transition (ET). While the center of low pressure will likely pass
inland of our forecast area, we will not miss out on the impacts
from the storm.
Once Nicole moves over inland Florida after making landfall, dry air
is forecast to become entrained on the eastern side of the storm.
This does not bode well for the local forecast area, specifically
southeastern GA, as the tornado threat will increase if this comes
to fruition. The HRRR and NAMNST are both depicting the convective
mode over the forecast area to be more along the lines of discrete
cells, with favorable convective parameters for tornadogenesis. The
NAMNST is more bullish regarding the tornado potential, with a
forecast Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) of 2 to 4 across
southeastern GA and the southern portion of southeastern SC in the
late afternoon/early evening hours. The HRRR and RAP do not have STP
values as high as the NAMNST, however they both also pinpoint
southeastern GA as an area of interest within the same time frame.
ML CAPE values are forecast to be between 800 to 1200 J/kg with
shear values on the order of 30 to 40 knots in the late afternoon
and into the overnight hours. The Storm Prediction Center has
outlooked the entire forecast are in a Slight Risk for severe
weather on Thursday to account for the tornado threat. As Nicole
passes inland, southeasterly flow will prevail, ushering in a warm,
moist tropical airmass. PWAT values are forecast to increase to a
whopping 2+ inches in the afternoon hours. Heavy rainfall is
possible, with 2 to 3 inches possible over the forecast area with
locally higher amounts. See the Hydrology Section for more details.
Temperatures Thursday will be several degrees above normal, as the
tropical airmass is ushered into the region along with plentiful
cloud cover. Perhaps the more interesting temperature forecast will
be the Thursday night temperatures. Thick cloud cover, onshore flow,
and the tropical airmass will allow temperatures only drop into the
upper 60s to near 70 at the coastline. These temperatures are 15-20
degrees above normal.
Friday: By Friday Nicole is forecast to be located over the Midlands
of SC, rapidly moving northward as it merges with the cold front and
swings eastward with the upper level trough. Conditions will likely
improve as of Friday afternoon, with wind gusts diminishing along
the coastline in the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms will
be possible in the morning hours across the region, persisting into
the afternoon in southeastern SC. Overnight the region will dry out,
with a rain-free forecast as clouds clear out. Temperatures Friday
will again be a couple degrees above normal, with mid 70s forecast
across the region. Overnight lows will also be above normal,with mid
to upper 50s forecast.
Saturday: At the surface a strong cold front will pass through the
region, with broad troughing aloft. High pressure will be quick to
build in behind the cold front at the surface. A sunny and rain-free
forecast in store for Saturday, with temperatures in the mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After the aforementioned cold front clears the forecast area, dry
high pressure will build into the region. A cooler air mass will be
ushered into the area, with temperatures Sunday night dropping into
the 40s across the coastal areas and into the mid 30s inland. A
Freeze Watch may be needed. Otherwise, overnight temperatures will
be right around normal for this time of year. High temperatures will
be a several degrees below normal, with highs only in the low 60s
through most of the period. The region will remain rain-free through
the weekend as high pressure builds in. An upper level trough will
swing eastward mid week, with a surface cold front sweeping through
the region. This will bring the region the first chance of rain in
the period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prior to the 0Z TAFs, satellite water vapor indicated dry air
across the region, yielding VFR conditions this evening. As
Nicole tracks toward FL tonight. Deep moisture over the Atlantic
will build westward, gradually lowering cloud bases. Ceilings
are timed to lower to MVFR around midnight, arriving at KSAV
earlier than KJZI/KCHS. In addition, showers should begin to
develop over the marine zones and tracking onshore late tonight.
The TAFs will feature a mention of VCSH at 7Z, with light
showers by 9Z. Overnight, expecting winds to remain from the
northeast, with gusts increasing to 25-30 kts by 9Z. During the
daylight hours Thursday, Nicole will track across the northern
FL, tracking near the Big Bend area. As a result, winds will
shift from the east across the terminals by midday into the
afternoon hours. The east winds should result in lower LCL as
PWs build over 2 inches. Each terminal is expected to develop
IFR ceilings during the afternoon with frequent showers, vis
restricted to at least MVFR with the tropical showers.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Thursday night widespread MVFR/ IFR
conditions will prevail with winds gusting to 25kt as Nicole
approaches the FL peninsula. Friday, winds will veer around from
the south with gusts of 30 to 35 kts. MVFR/ VFR cigs are
expected on Friday. A cold front will sweep through the region
Saturday afternoon with winds out of the west and mostly VFR
conditions. On Sunday, a secondary cold front will cross the
terminals with winds turning from the northeast. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Today through tonight: Dangerous marine conditions are
currently ongoing and will continue through tonight. The local
waters will continue to be situated within a tight pressure
gradient between high pressure inland and the broad circulation
associated with Tropical Cyclone Nicole as it moves across the
northern Bahamas and eventually makes landfall along the
southeast Florida coast later tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings
remain in effect. Seas are already 6 to 11 ft along the
nearshore waters, and 13-16 ft in the outer waters.
Thursday through Monday: Dangerous marine conditions are expected
through Friday as Tropical Storm Nicole makes landfall in Florida
and progresses inland of the local forecast area. Seas are forecast
to continue to build Thursday and Friday, with 7 to 14 ft across the
nearshore waters and 15 to 19 ft across the offshore GA waters
beyond 20 nm. The seas will slowly diminish into the weekend, with 3
to 5 ft forecast by Monday. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place
for all of the coastal waters, including the Charleston Harbor,
through Friday. Tropical Storm force gusts will continue through
Friday night. Conditions are forecast to improve through the
weekend, with westerly winds subsiding to around 10 knots by
Saturday night.
There is a risk for isolated waterspouts Thursday and Friday as the
region will be in a favorable quadrant of Tropical Storm Nicole and
convective parameters are favorable.
High Surf: Breaking waves of 5 ft or larger are expected to impact
the region until Nicole lifts away from the immediate area late this
week. In addition, areas of beach erosion will occur, some of which
could potentially be significant due to the large waves for an
extended period and potential coastal flooding at the times of high
tide. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rain chances will increase in response to a deepening and
strengthening onshore fetch Thursday, the rain intensity and
coverage ramps up Thursday afternoon and continues into Friday
morning. WPC currently has our coastal counties in a Slight
Risk for Excessive Rainfall 12z Thursday - 12z Friday period
with inland SC counties in a marginal risk.
The latest forecast calls for 2-3 inches with locally higher
amounts of 5 inches possible. Rainfall has been scarce since
Tropical Cyclone Ian, thus river flooding is not expected. On
the other hand, we will need to keep an eye on Church Creek in
the West Ashley area which responds rapidly to heavy rains.
There is a low-end potential for flash flooding where heavier
rain bands set up, as well as in Downtown Charleston, especially
coincident with the times of high tide.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Storm Surge Watch remains in effect for the entire coastline,
from the Altamaha River northward to the South Santee River. 2
to 4 feet of inundation is forecast with the upcoming high
tides, though the peak surge and highest tide values are
expected to occur with the Thursday morning high tide.
Astronomical tides are running high due to the full moon early
Tuesday. Additionally, strong northeasterly flow, resulting from
strong high pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Nicole
approaching from the south, will increase tidal anamolies even
more. With several days of NE and then E winds, water will
continue to pile higher into harbors, inlets, tributaries, etc.
Even during low tide the water will have a difficult time
draining out, so water levels begin higher for the next high
tide.
The latest indications regarding coastal flooding will be as
follows:
Wednesday: Minor coastal flooding expected in the Charleston Harbor
and possible at Fort Pulaski this evening.
Thursday: Major coastal flooding expected with the morning high tide
cycle along the Charleston and Colleton county coasts with moderate
coastal flooding expected at Fort Pulaski.
Friday: Minor coastal flooding expected with the morning high tide
along the Charleston and Colleton county coasts.
If heavy rains are occurring near or at high tide, the coastal
flooding situation would be exacerbated.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ116>119-138>141.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for GAZ117-119-139-
141.
Storm Surge Watch for GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ045-047>052.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for SCZ048>051.
Storm Surge Watch for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ330-350-352-354-374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NED/Haines
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...NED/Haines
MARINE...CPM/Haines
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
806 PM MST Wed Nov 9 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM MST Wed Nov 9 2022
High winds gusting up to 55 mph or above are no longer anticipated
allowing for Wednesday`s High Wind Warning to expire. Southerly
wind gusts up to around 40 mph are still possible this evening in
some locations causing possible localized blowing dust. Winds
expect to shift out of the northwest tonight with the passage of a
cold front. Due to recent obs, patchy fog has been added to the
forecast in northern Yuma county and surrounding areas that
expects to dissipate around midnight MST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Nights)
Issued at 108 PM MST Wed Nov 9 2022
20 UTC water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a strong low
circulation in place across the Rockies. At the surface, cold
front that had slid as far south as St. Francis was retreating to
the north as a warm front, separating temperatures approaching 80
degrees with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. The retreat of this
front will be short lived as it will rapidly advance tonight and
usher in a period of much colder weather.
Main concern through the early evening will be ongoing strong
southerly winds and how they evolve through the evening. Currently
a few gusts to 60 mph have already occurred in eastern Colorado
as critical fire weather conditions continue. Expect to see low
level winds rapidly increase around 00z and while normally
radiational cooling would limit mixing in the evening, with
ongoing large scale winds keeping the boundary layer well mixed
think some of these strong winds will make it to the surface in
the 23-02z period along and south of Interstate 70. Have increased
the area of current High Wind Warning as well as extended it for
another hour to account for this.
Strong cold front will sweep across the area between 04 and 08
UTC, bringing a sudden shift to northerly winds and much colder
temperatures. Strong, in excess of 9 mb/3hr pressure rises
expected to accompany it which will likely bring another period of
strong and gusty winds and perhaps a bit of blowing dust as it
passes. Immediately ahead of this front, mainly east of a McCook
to Oakley line, looks like there will be enough conditional
instability for a few showers and storms. While instability is
weak, the vertical mixing due to these showers may be enough to
bring damaging wind gusts as showers pass. Will be a battle
between strengthening inversion and these showers so confidence
not great at this time, but will need to monitor the 05 to 07 UTC
time period closely.
Otherwise expect temperatures 30 to 40 degrees cooler tomorrow
with breezy north winds. Dry conditions will persist through the
day Thursday. With winds diminishing Thursday night and skies
clearing, expect lows to fall into the teens across much of the
area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 PM MST Wed Nov 9 2022
For this long-term forecast period, an active weather pattern looks to
continue across the United States. However, latest trends in the models
indicate that the weather will unfortunately remain quite dry across
the High Plains. The bigger story will be that the coldest temperatures
of the Fall will be observed to start next week after a couple frontal
passages and a blizzard across the Northern Plains help usher colder
air south.
To begin with Friday through the weekend, dry weather is anticipated as
a surface high pressure system sets up over the Plains. In addition, an
upper level ridge should take place in the wake of the departing upper
level low moving northeast across the Great Lakes and southeastern
Canada, and a new trough of low pressure developing over the western
United States. In addition, as we head into Sunday, yet another upper
level trough will move into the northwestern United States. With these
troughs developing and being slow to arrive, there should be no
significant weather impacts through the weekend. As a result, dry
weather will persist through Sunday and a warming trend should be
expected as low pressure develops in lee of the Rockies, allowing
southerly flow and warmer temperatures to return.
Going into next week, as the two troughs of low pressure approach the
Plains, anticipate the weather to make another large swing towards the
cold. In fact, once the cold front moves through Sunday, we will
observe the coldest temperatures so far this Fall. Daytime maximums on
Monday and Tuesday will be in the 30s areawide. Overnight low
temperatures will fall into the teens, resulting in near-zero wind
chills on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday mornings. Further, these two
systems may bring a chance for some precipitation late Sunday Night,
immediately behind the cold front, through Monday. Unfortunately, this
looks like a typical split flow set-up, which usually leads to our
forecast area missing out on the precipitation. The majority of the
precipitation would either occur to the north, over the Dakotas, or to
the south across Texas and Oklahoma, perhaps reaching eastern Kansas.
Either way, even if it does precipitation, it won`t amount to
much...only a few hundredths of an inch. With cold temperatures
expected, it is possible that this precipitation comes in the form for
snow or a rain/snow mix. Based on the light liquid amounts, this would
result in little to no accumulation. Overall, this does not have the
appearance of an impactful event in terms of precipitation, or even
wind, but cold temperatures will be the main story.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 430 PM MST Wed Nov 9 2022
Synopsis: Strong southerly winds continue at both terminals that
look to shift northwesterly overnight with a cold frontal passage.
KGLD TAF will be NIL due to the terminal being out of service due
to intermittent communications causing an unreliable flow of
observations. Techs are troubleshooting and ETR at this time is
unknown.
KMCK begins with VFR restrictions with southerly winds at 27G36
kts causing blowing dust which may lower visibilities down to
6SM. At 06Z, KMCK sees winds beginning to turn southwesterly with
vicinity thunderstorms and some LLWS ahead of the approaching cold
front. This cold front looks to pass through KMCK in the middle
of the 07Z hour taking the precipitation chances with it and
turning the winds northwesterly at 18G28 kts while a broken cloud
ceiling at 2 kft causing MVFR conditions. At 10Z, VFR conditions
look to return to KMCK with some LLWS that departs around 17Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...076
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...076
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
538 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022
A surface low lee of the Colorado Rockies will maintain a tight
pressure gradient through this evening, maintaining breezy south
winds. Main concern for this afternoon are the windspeeds, as most
areas across western & northern Oklahoma already had gusts up to 35
mph by the start of late morning mixing. Although RAP is slightly
weaker with the 850 mb winds, the NAM remains robust with 40-45 mph
jet maxima across northwest Oklahoma. However, persisting
cloudcover may inhibit sufficient heating to mix to that height
keeping wind gusts lower. For now will monitor satellite & surface
wind observations through the remainder of the afternoon should
any Wind Advisory be needed. Although still breezy this evening,
decoupling should diminish the wind gusts.
Otherwise, synoptic pattern still setting up the Southern Plains for
a storm system to come through on Thursday with very cold air coming
in behind it. A large amplitude upper trough will continue to dig
across the U.S. Southwest pushing a cold front stretched from just
west of the Central Rockies across the Desert Southwest, while north
of this Pacific front is very cold Canadian-based air in place
across the Northern Rockies through the Great Plains. Still have a
sharp dryline stretched across eastern New Mexico with very moist
air (lower to mid 60s dewpoints) to the east and across the Southern
Plains. Still expecting the cold front to overtake the dryline
tonight and push into northwest Oklahoma during the latter half of
Thursday morning. Although storms may initiate along the cold front
across northwest Oklahoma by late morning, strong cooling above the
boundary layer may break the low-level inversion cap just ahead of
the front for convective initiation. However, still expecting the
strongest forcing for storms along the frontal boundary. Storm POPs
really ramp up by Thursday afternoon, with the highest across
central Oklahoma. Although models are typically inconsistent with
the frontal timings, they do generally have the front stretched just
south of I-40 by the early evening hours, with our highest POPs
across southeast Oklahoma during the evening into overnight hours.
Overall, most of our areas will have a shot for rainfall on
Thursday, except for the far western edges of our Oklahoma and north
Texas areas. As of now still not expecting any storms on Thursday
to become severe, as the severe threat will be closer to the upper
low from western Kansas through the Upper Midwest. However, with
surface based CAPE values projecting up to lower-end moderate
instability along with a marginal deep-layer sheared environment,
there is a potential for a few strong storms as well as some locally
heavy rainfall under these. Did increase windspeeds along the
frontal boundary using the NBM 90th percentile winds. Thursdays MaxT
will be a bit challenging with the frontal boundary, so did go
overall cooler than NBM using the CONSRAW, then slightly cooler
across our northwest using 50% of the CONSHORT guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022
Storm activity will have shifted more across southeast Oklahoma by
Thursday evening and perhaps ending there by sunrise Friday. The
main focus in the long term will be a quick change of unseasonably
cold air and the return of rain on Monday with wintery precipitation
possible perhaps early and later that day.
Post frontal north winds will start advecting some of that Canadian-
based air Thursday night dropping temperatures to subfreezing across
the northern one-third of our CWA. Breezy north winds of 20-25 mph
Thursday night could produce wind chill values in the upper teens
across northern Oklahoma to well in the 20s across the rest of our
area. Expecting high temperatures on Friday to not make it out of
the 40s across most of our area, to the 50s near and south of the
Red River, overall nearly 20 degrees cooler than average for early
November. The axis of the upper trough comes through Friday night as
high pressure starts building across the Central into Southern
Plains causing winds to diminish. Wind chills will be negligible
for Friday night/Saturday morning, but strong radiational cooling
will plunge our dry bulb temperatures well into the 20s areawide
with at least northern Oklahoma getting its first hard freeze for
this season. South winds make a return on Sunday and becoming
windy. Although winds may keep Sunday nights temperatures slightly
warmer (freezing to just above), the wind chill will again be a
factor making it feel in the 20s.
Zonal upper flow this weekend starts becoming more southwesterly as
another upper wave starts approaching the Southern Plains from the
west, bringing our next cold front along with another round of cold
Canadian air on Monday. With stable air from this system, not
expecting any convection but a cold rain on Monday afternoon.
However, could see a wintry mix of precipitation Monday morning as
well as late in the evening as temperatures drop below freezing.
Although southwest Oklahoma through north Texas are unlikely to see
any wintry precipitation, still rather early to discriminate wintry
precipitation types, but with this frigid air mass snow
precipitation is most likely. Upper troughing will maintain our
cooling trend through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022
MVFR cigs are expected to impact most of the terminals close to
sunrise Thursday morning. A cold front will result in a wind shift
from the west and then northwest throughout the day tomorrow
beginning at WWR around 13-15Z. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible generally just behind the front, although some isolated
development appears possible along it. Skies will begin to clear
behind it late in the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 64 72 36 45 / 0 70 50 0
Hobart OK 63 74 35 48 / 10 30 20 0
Wichita Falls TX 64 75 41 51 / 10 40 40 10
Gage OK 56 65 27 45 / 10 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 64 73 30 45 / 10 60 30 0
Durant OK 62 75 43 52 / 0 10 90 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...03