Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/09/22

National Weather Service Hastings NE
539 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 322 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 Key Messages: * A mild and breezy night with lots of clouds, a little drizzle, light rain showers or sprinkles possible at times. * Warm and Windy Wednesday with lots of clouds and well above normal temperatures. * The approaching system for Thursday continues to track faster. A line of thunderstorms is possible along the associated front during the pre-dawn hours Thursday. Severe weather potential continues to decrease. * Windy and brisk Thursday with sunshine returning. Bundle up! * A prolonged stretch of cold weather starts behind this cold front Thursday, with well below normal temperatures likely through then end of the current forecast period and beyond. A cloudy and dreary day has been observed across much of the forecast area today. A few locations have seen some measurable rainfall, but most locations have received just a Trace of precipitation. Radar trends continue to diminish, and despite some elevated instability, forcing to get additional thunderstorms to develop does not appear there for the remainder of the evening, so removed the chance for thunderstorms tonight. If any storms do end up developing, they should be later in the evening/overnight and to our north near the area where the LLJ tops over the surface front. Given the continued southerly flow and ample cloud cover upstream of the local area, expect another at least mostly cloudy day across the region, with some light morning drizzle not out of the question. Looking at sounding data, however, did not include the potential for drizzle in the morning forecast for Wednesday as the temp/dewpoint spread increases after about 12Z. The main impact of the cloud cover then will be 1) to hold up overnight temps tonight, and 2) to hold down maximum temps on Wednesday afternoon. With the very warm overnight temps, seasonably speaking, we should end up shattering the record warm low temps for the date, assuming the frontal boundary tomorrow night does not reach the tri-cities before midnight. That said, there is good agreement among the timing of the CAMS with the frontal boundary reaching the tri-cities around 3 AM, so new record warm minimums appear likely. While there is good agreement in models with the timing of this front, at this time, there remains quite a bit of spread with the amount of potential convection along the approaching cold front. The latest runs of the RAP are nearly dry across our forecast area, blossoming the front after daybreak and to the east of the area, while the HRRR has a broken line of convection, and the NAMnest is the most aggressive. Given the less favorable timing of this system now coming overnight, think something more along the lines of the HRRR appears the most likely, with a broken line of convection across our area and the potential for a tenth to two tenths of precipitation being the most likely scenario given the pace of the front as it races across the local area early Thursday morning. Winds will also be a factor, both ahead and behind this front, and continued to advertise gusts up to 50 mph both Wednesday afternoon ahead of the front, and Thursday behind the front. One thing to note, the forecast high for Thursday is well above the hourly temperature forecast. Thus, do not expect an afternoon high near 50, but rather falling temps during the early morning hours with afternoon temps in the 30s along with a stiff northwest wind. Burr. Thereafter...continue to anticipate well below normal temperatures and dry conditions continuing through the end of the current forecast period, with the latest hazard outlook from CPC indicating a strong potential for below normal (possibly well below normal) temperatures continuing through the 18th of the month. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday) Issued at 533 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 MVFR to IFR conditions persist through the forecast period at KGRI and KEAR. Southerly winds remain breezy this evening, around 18-23kts with gusts as high as 30kts. There will be several hours where LLWS will be possible. Southerly winds remain breezy through the day tomorrow, ranging from 18-23kts with gusts as high as 30. Stratus remains in the area for much of the period, although a few models are trending cloud cover down slightly, to the west of the terminals tomorrow afternoon. Around the end of the forecast period, expect a chance of a few showers developing, particularly north of the terminals early on. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 829 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Record warmth continues to be possible Wednesday, November 9th. The combination of strong southerly winds, elevated dewpoints and a warm airmass ahead of an approaching cold front will help temperatures soar across the region on Wednesday. While forecast afternoon temps have trended cooler, record warm minimum temperatures for the day are expected to be shattered, possibly breaking the record warm minimum for the entire month of November. - GRAND ISLAND airport (GRI): Record High for November 9th: 79 (1999) Current Forecast: 75 Record Warm Low/Minimum: 50 (1917) Current Forecast: 60 (note: The MONTHLY record warm minimum is 59 set on 11-2-1938) - HASTINGS airport (HSI): Record High for November 9th: 78 (1999) Current Forecast: 73 Record Warm Low/Minimum: 50 (1931) Current Forecast: 60 (note: The MONTHLY record warm minimum is 59 set on 11-2-1938) && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Wekesser CLIMATE...Rossi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
903 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 228 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 Unseasonably warm weather will prevail across central Illinois for the next couple of days as high temperatures climb into the 70s for Wednesday and Thursday. After that, sharply colder conditions are anticipated by the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 903 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 Lower clouds still remain around the area this evening, but based on satellite loops, looks like they will not remain around the whole area late tonight. In addition, some of the HiRes models still bring some scattered light showers across the northern third of the CWA, including the Mclean Co area. So update for tonight will make a small adjustment to lower temps in the west by 1 degree and add additional sprinkles into Mclean Co. Update will be out shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 228 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 Sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from eastern Ontario to the Gulf Coast will continue to dominate the weather across central Illinois tonight. As the ridge shifts further away, easterly boundary layer flow will gradually become southeasterly. At the same time, weak short-wave energy will track northeastward from the Southern Plains...enhancing synoptic lift within the developing WAA regime. The end result will be an increase in cloud cover across the western half of the KILX CWA. Forecast soundings suggest skies will become overcast along/west of I-55 with partly cloudy conditions further east. A few CAMS, including the HRRR, have been hinting at some light showers in the Illinois River Valley. Given very dry boundary layer, do not think measurable rainfall will occur. Have instead opted to carry scattered sprinkles along/north of a Macomb to Minonk line late tonight into Wednesday morning. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s near the Indiana border where clouds will be around 50 degrees in the Illinois River Valley. Once any early morning sprinkles across the N/NW come to an end, skies will become partly to mostly sunny across the board. With sunshine returning and southerly flow strengthening, high temperatures will climb into the lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 228 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 As a strong upper low currently off the coast of northern California shifts eastward into the Great Basin, lee cyclogenesis will occur across eastern Colorado on Wednesday. The low will then track into the Upper Midwest and push a strong cold front toward central Illinois by late Thursday. Increasing southerly winds ahead of the approaching front will push highs into the lower to middle 70s on Thursday. Further west, a narrow band of moisture/instability will support a severe weather risk along and ahead of the cold front across Iowa into western Missouri. Most models depict a thin line of convection immediately along the front, which pushes into the Illinois River Valley in a weakening state toward evening. 12z solutions have generally sped up the eastward progress of the storms, so have added chance PoPs west of the Illinois River for late Thursday afternoon. Given decreasing instability further east, do not think severe weather will be a threat...but have included a slight chance for thunder across the far NW accordingly. The cold front and its associated precip will slow considerably Thursday night into Friday morning due to a strong blocking pattern initiated by landfalling Hurricane Nicole across Florida. As a result, showers will likely spread as far east as I-57 before dissipating by Friday morning. Once Nicole lifts northeastward, the cold front will resume its forward progress on Friday...sweeping east of central Illinois and bringing in sharply colder weather. Thanks to brisk northwesterly winds and overnight lows dipping into the 20s, wind-chill values by early Saturday morning will plunge into the teens. With deep- layer northwesterly flow in place and 850mb temps falling into the -8 to -12C range, think air temperatures will remain in the 30s for both Saturday and Sunday. After that, slow moderation into the upper 30s and lower 40s can be expected by early next week...although it appears well below normal temps will continue through the entire week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 542 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 Main aviation forecast challenge will be potential for MVFR ceilings at KPIA late tonight into Wednesday morning. Current satellite loop shows high clouds pushing eastward across central Illinois this evening and lower clouds around 5-7kft pushing north across the area. Further west where return flow on the back side of high pressure is more prominent, ceilings are lower to MVFR. This moisture is forecast to lift north-northeast this evening and may spill into the Illinois River Valley later tonight. While some CAMs keep the lower clouds further west, both NAM and HRRR soundings suggest they will reach KPIA overnight. Have therefore lowered ceilings to MVFR at KPIA after 11z. With these clouds, some of the models suggest possible light showers with the MVFR cigs. Therefore have included a VCSH at PIA for the late overnight through morning hours. Remainder of the sites will also see VFR cigs around 4-5kft overnight, but then scatter out during the early morning hours and remain scattered rest of the day. Winds will initially be SE around 10kt this evening and overnight. SE winds of around 10kt are expected by Wednesday morning, but then become more southerly late morning around 10-12kts. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Auten
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
855 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 848 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022 Skies are clear this evening as surface ridging remains in control. Clear skies and light winds will continue through the night with a dry airmass in place. No major changes are needed tonight and just made minor updates to hourly temperatures and dewpoints for the next few hours. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 324 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022 Key Messages: 1. Calm and dry conditions expected for the remainder of Tuesday and Wednesday. 2. Elevated fire risk today for SW Virginia and northeast TN due to low RH values, and the recent stretch of dry weather. Discussion: Calm and pleasant conditons anticipated for the remainder of Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure and ridging remain in control of the story. Main emphasis for this forecast period is on the elevated fire risk due to low RH values, dry fuels, and a recent stretch of dry weather. Went with a blend of NBM10 and HRRR for dewpoints-- dewpoints expected to be ranging from the mid-teens to mid-20s this afternoon in SW VA and northeast TN as dry air spills into our area from the north east. Subsequently, relative humidity values will dip very low this afternoon and evening also. Temperatures overnight will fall into the 40s and upper 30s. While Wednesday will be slightly cooler than recent days, forecast highs are still above normal. Low relative humidity values Wednesday afternoon pose a risk for elevated fire danger again-- many places in East TN will have RH values ranging from low 20s to low 30s, and even lower in SW VA. Wednesday will be much of the same with clouds increasing in our southern areas towards the end of the forecast period. Issued an SPS for the elevated fire risk today for southwest Virginia, and a large portion of northeast Tennessee. The combination of low relative humidities, dry fuels, and a recent stretch of dry weather could allow fires that start to spread out of control. Outdoor burning is not recommended. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022 Key Messages: 1. Dry and warmer than normal conditions are expected Thursday. Chances for rain increase Thursday evening into Friday as remnants from tropical system Nicole approaches. 2. Significantly colder temperatures are expected Saturday through early next week. Discussion: Thursday and Friday Wednesday night and Thursday will be dry with a ridge and high pressure over the region. By Thursday night, a trough will be moving into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as remnants of tropical system Nicole move into Georgia. The ECMWF brings the remnant low through Western North Carolina Friday afternoon which would result in roughly 2 to 3 inches of rain. The GFS has the trough pushing Nicole`s remnants a bit farther east moving through Central North Carolina Friday evening. A track through Central North Carolina may produce rain totals around 1 to 2 inches maybe even lower in some places. The models are in good agreement on timing with rain beginning Thursday night and moving out Friday evening. Despite uncertainty in the track of Nicole, confidence is increasing that we will see widespread significant rain. As the remnant low moves northeast through North Carolina, a cold front will be moving through the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon or evening. Dew points and temps will begin falling significantly Friday evening and overnight. Saturday through Tuesday Dry with troughing and high pressure over the region. Temps will be colder than normal with highs in the 40s and lower 50s which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Lows will be below freezing in the 20s Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022 VFR expected through the next 24 hours at all sites. Winds will be light, less than 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 72 48 72 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 43 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 68 43 69 / 0 0 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Williams LONG TERM....McD AVIATION...Diegan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
542 PM MST Tue Nov 8 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 536 PM MST Tue Nov 8 2022 Updated the forecast to let Red Flag Warning for this evening expire. Will be looking at incoming 00z models to see if a expansion of the Wednesday High Wind Watch back toward the Trinidad area is needed, as quick look at the latest HRRR has some fairly high gusts (approx 60 kts) just downstream of Raton Pass. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 320 PM MST Tue Nov 8 2022 Key Messages: 1)Critical Fire Weather conditions are expected for the plains this evening, and again for Wednesday. 2) A High Wind Watch is in effect for tomorrow afternoon on our eastern plains, where blowing dust will also be possible. 3) Snow is expected to begin tomorrow evening in the Continental Divide region, where blowing snow and hazardous travel conditions will be possible. Currently.. Southwest flow is well in place today as a strong upper level trough makes its way on shore over California. Persistent cloud cover over Baca county is keeping temperatures in the 60s, while the rest of our plains have warmed into the 70s with strong downsloping and lots of sunshine. Winds are gusting out of the south and southwest across the entire region, with highest gusts in the higher terrain. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 5pm this evening for the I-25 corridor, where relative humidity values have fallen into the single digits and winds are gusting over 30 mph. Tonight.. As the trough continues to push eastward, the pressure gradient tightens overhead keeping gusty winds over our higher terrain through the overnight hours. Temperatures stay near or just above normal for most, with strong downsloping staying in place over night. Our far eastern plains remain in fairly moist flow, keeping their overnight low temperatures in the low to mid-50s tonight. Tomorrow.. Winds really begin to crank up on our plains shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning as a 140+ kt jet streak pushes across Colorado. Deterministic models bring the base of the trough and associated jet streak across south central and southeastern Colorado through the late afternoon and early evening hours. A High Wind Watch is in effect for this timeframe for portions of our eastern plains, to include Kiowa, Bent, Prowers, Baca, and eastern Las Animas counties. A Red Flag Warning is also in effect for this timeframe for all areas along and east of the I-25 corridor. Winds are expected to gust upwards of 60 mph on our far eastern plains tomorrow, where blowing dust could create hazardous travel conditions throughout the day and into the early evening hours. Snow looks to begin across the Continental Divide region tomorrow evening, though accumulations are looking to stay fairly light at this time. Winds are also likely to gust up to 65 mph in the higher terrain tomorrow, where blowing snow could create hazardous travel conditions, especially as we get into the evening hours of Wednesday. Daytime high temperatures are expected to soar into the low 80s in the Arkansas River Valley and will likely be 5 to 10 degrees above normal elsewhere. This will probably be our warmest day for quite some time.. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 320 PM MST Tue Nov 8 2022 Key Messages: 1) Fast moving closed low / open wave trough to move over the region Wednesday evening through early morning bringing moderate snowfall with gusty winds. Hazardous travel conditions are possible. 2) Cold front pushes over the mountains Thursday to bring gusty northwesterly winds and much cooler temperatures. 3) A series of waves are expected to propagate over southern Colorado during the extended forecast which will reinforce cold air over the region. Overnight lows after Saturday will be in the teens over the plains and the single digits over the mountain valleys. Wednesday Night and Thursday: The trending earlier onset time of the low pressure system that has been discussed in previous discussions continue to remain on track with the closed low progressing a little bit weaker, more quickly moving, and more to the north. All of this keeps QPF and snow amounts on the lighter side with around a 3 to 6 hour period with bursts of heavy snow. HREF, deterministic, and ensembles are agreeing that around .2"-.3" of QPF over the Continental Divide during the 5PM to 11PM period on Wednesday (the heaviest snow period), equating to around 3 to 6 inches of snow total. Visibility will be lower during that period due to pulsy heavier snow showers and gusty winds. Hazardous travel conditions are possible. Late Wednesday night in to early Thursday morning the trough axis will push past the Pueblo CWA which will cut off snowfall rates due to the dry air being entrained from the west-northwest. The trends for the cold front have also changed quite a bit from previous forecasts but remains similar to last night`s forecast. Instead of a sharp north to south traveling front with stronger gusts of winds to more of an anafront pushing over the mountains from west to east. The resultant weather will be dry over the plains and weak winds as compared to previous forecast packages. The rest of Thursday will be a pretty typical post frontal day. Low clouds likely will stick around, cooler, perhaps some fog over and near the foothills during the evening. Friday through Tuesday: Pretty dry conditions are expected overall throughout the rest of the period, but there will be a wave train set-up which will bring isolated to scattered snow showers over the Continental Divide and colder air each time the wave passes overhead. Expect the waves to reach the region on Friday, Saturday and Monday. The big weather story during this period are the overnight lows in the teens over the plains and the single digits over the mountain valleys Saturday moving onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 320 PM MST Tue Nov 8 2022 VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS the next 24 hours. Southerly and southwesterly will likely continue to gust to around 30 to 40kt for the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening at all three locations. Winds will diminish slightly overnight, but are expected to be even stronger for Wednesday. Blowing dust could briefly reduce visibility this afternoon, especially at KALS and KPUB, but confidence is low at this point. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday for COZ226>235. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for COZ094>099. && $$ UPDATE...PETERSEN SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...SKELLY AVIATION...EHR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
154 PM PST Tue Nov 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread heavy rain, strong winds and high-elevation snow will impact Southern California today through Wednesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the early evening hours. Snow levels will fall tonight into Wednesday morning, falling as low as 4500 feet. Scattered showers will diminish from northwest to southeast on Wednesday. Very cold on Wednesday, with temperatures rising a few degrees each day Thursday through this weekend. A pattern change early next week could lead to the next chance of showers, cooler temperatures and gusty onshore winds. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Afternoon update: All zones have seen moderate to heavy rainfall today, with the highest precipitation totals occurring across the San Bernardino County Mountains, where widespread totals of 1 to 5+ inches have been reported. Currently, the axis of heaviest rainfall is occurring across San Diego County early this afternoon, with widespread rates of 0.25-0.50"/hr. In addition, convective rain bands are beginning to develop across northern Orange County into far southwestern San Bernardino County. The second AR band is progressing farther south this afternoon, with associated rainfall occurring across Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties. Strong 850 mb moisture transport vectors are pointing directly into Southern California, so we can expect rainfall rates to remain elevated as the band progresses farther south this evening. Please see the Hydrology section for more details on rain impacts through Wednesday. In addition to the rain, very strong south to southwest winds continue this afternoon, with the highest report occurring at Cajon Lookout at 86 mph (San Bernardino County Mountains). Winds will peak later this afternoon into this evening before slowly diminishing tonight. Previous Discussion (Issued 945 AM PST Tue Nov 8 2022)... A strong, 535 DM low is moving inland across northern California today. This low is beginning to progress eastward and will move through the Great Basin and into the Northern Rockies through the rest of today. Snow levels will remain elevated through much of today, likely remaining above 8000 feet through this afternoon, falling to 7000 feet this evening and as low as 4500 to 5000 feet Wednesday morning. Please see the Hydrology section for more details on snow impacts through Wednesday. Analysis of the 12z ECMWF Ens Mean shows potent vorticity rounding the base of the upper trough this afternoon, with PVA heading into Southern California. Clearing is being noted off the coast of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties; this could lead to marginal destabilization today. The 16z HRRR shows surface- based CAPE of 300-600 J/kg across the coast and valleys by this afternoon and bulk shear values of 60+ knots. Favorable parameters could lead to low-topped thunderstorms this afternoon across the coastal basin, with the risk of strong winds and a brief spin-up tornado along the leading edge of storms. This threat will persist for a few hours this afternoon into this evening. Southerly winds will continue to increase this morning, turning to the southwest this afternoon before weakening and turning northwesterly tonight. Surface pressure gradients will tighten, with winds likely peaking in strength this afternoon. The strongest winds are expected to occur across the San Bernardino County Mountains into the High Desert. Winds will remain breezy through Wednesday as the storm system exits the region to the east, with winds out of the northwest. High temperatures today will be cooler than those observed on Monday, with highs ranging 5 to 20 degrees below normal for the coast and valleys, 5 to 15 degrees below normal for the desert and 15 to 25 degrees below average for the mountains. Wednesday will be the coldest day of the week, with highs 10 to 25 degrees below normal for all areas. The low pressure system will progress eastward on Wednesday and Thursday towards the Rockies and Plains. Winds will briefly turn offshore for Thursday and Friday, allowing for high temperatures to rise several degrees each way through the weekend. The 00z ECMWF Ens analysis continues to show negative 500 mb height anomalies through Friday with highs remaining slightly below normal, but weak ridging through the weekend centered over the Great Basin. Seasonally cool but tranquil conditions are expected through the weekend. A pattern change is in store for early next week as weak longwave troughing redevelops across the Eastern Pacific through the West Coast. This could lead to the next chance for showers, cooler temperatures and breezy onshore winds. && .AVIATION... 082030Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN-OVC clouds with bases 600-3500 feet MSL, layered to 15000 feet MSL with terrain obscurations. RA will continue through the day with areas of vis 1-3SM in RA/BR through 08Z Wed. Slight chance (15-20%) of TSRA 03Z-06Z Wed, with lesser chances through 12Z Wed. SW wind gusts to 35-40 kt will occur near the coast through 01Z Wed. Frontal passage 01-05Z with weaker westerly winds, gusting 20-30 kt. Cigs generally rising to 2500-3500 feet MSL after 05Z with decreasing SHRA. Mountains/Deserts...Areas of terrain obscurations will continue along the coastal slopes and higher peaks due to clouds/FG/SHRA/SHSN through this evening. -SHRA possible in the deserts through 10Z Wed. There is a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms (10-15%) through 10Z Wed in the mountains. Areas of surface W/SW winds 25-35 kt with gusts 55-60 kt through 12Z Wed. Strong up/downdrafts and LLWS will occur over/east of the mountains. && .MARINE... Southwest gales and hazardous seas over the coastal waters through tonight. Winds will begin to shift westerly from northwest to southeast after 7 PM. Winds and seas will decrease into Wednesday morning. A Gale Warning is in effect through 10 PM tonight. No additional marine weather hazards are expected Wednesday through Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Currently, the axis of heaviest rainfall is occurring across San Diego County early this afternoon, with widespread rates of 0.25-0.50"/hr. In addition, convective rain bands are beginning to develop across northern Orange County into far southwestern San Bernardino County. The second AR band (NCEP GFS IVT analysis shows values of 500-700 kg/ms) is progressing farther south this afternoon, with associated rainfall occurring across Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties. Strong 850 mb moisture transport vectors are pointing directly into Southern California with PWAT values of 1-1.1 inch, so we can expect rainfall rates to remain elevated as the band progresses farther south this evening. CAMs show increasing hourly rates again this evening for the aforementioned areas, potentially reaching 0.50-1.00"/hr. This second round will likely persist through much of tonight into Wednesday morning. Scattered showers will diminish from northwest to southeast through Wednesday morning. Through Wednesday, additional forecasted rainfall totals are as follows: Coast: 0.50-1.25" Valleys: 0.75-1.50" Mountains: 1.00-4.00", local amounts to 5.00" in the San Bernardino County Mountains Deserts: 0.10-0.50", higher amounts closer to the mountains Snow levels will remain near 8000 this afternoon, then decrease from the northwest tonight to 5500 to 6500 feet, and 4500 to 5500 feet Wednesday with snowfall of 2 to 4 inches above 5500 feet, 4 to 8 inches from 6500 to 7500 feet, and 2 to 3 feet on the highest peaks. For elevations below 6500 to 7000 feet, the more significant snowfall is expected for tonight into Wednesday. The higher rainfall rates for this afternoon and evening exceed the flash flood guidance thresholds for the burn scars. Elsewhere during periods with higher rainfall rates, there could be ponding of water in areas with poor drainage, small stream flooding, and urban flooding. Rainfall is expected to be greater for the high desert areas than the lower deserts with the the heavier totals closer to the mountains. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is requested through early this evening. Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coachella Valley- Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire- San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains- San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino County Mountains-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains. Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for San Diego County Mountains. High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys. PZ...Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm- Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island. && $$ PUBLIC...Schenk AVIATION/MARINE...CO