Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/08/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
441 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 358 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022
Main challenges in the Short Term period will be precipitation, fog
potential tonight...and to a lesser degree temperatures and winds
through Tuesday Night.
The Short Term period will be characterized by increasing southwest
flow aloft, allowing a leeside trough to broaden in scope and deepen
in strength...as a massive upper level trough continues to approach
the Great Basin region and eventually the Rockies. The Gulf of
Mexico is wide open with surface dewpoints this afternoon as high as
70F as far north as the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Lower to mid
50s dewpoints were found as far northwest as west central Oklahoma
this afternoon. Surface winds will continue to veer around to the
southeast through the night. These winds will eventually begin
tapping this rich low level moisture to our south-southeast,
advecting it north-northwestward into portions of southwest and
eventually south central Kansas. The vastly increased low level
moisture advection tonight will manifest as widespread stratus cloud
development, including very low level stratus only a few hundred
feet off the ground by daybreak/early morning Tuesday.
Numerous hourly runs of the HRRR model are developing quarter-mile
visibility in dense fog across mainly south central Kansas, but even
some of the more recent model runs are expanding the quarter-mile
fog deeper into southwest and central Kansas as well. In the
official grids, we will carry patchy to areas of fog, including
areas of dense fog across our southeast counties. The evening and
late night shift will need to assess further whether a dense fog
advisory may be necessary or not. The only inhibiting factor to
dense fog would be wind speeds staying up enough to keep the
boundary layer mixed just enough, however given how much moisture is
expected to move north through the night into a relatively cool
atmosphere...dense fog may still occur with south/southeast winds of
10 mph.
Regardless if fog develops or not, low stratus will continue across
much of the southwest Kansas...and especially the central and south
central Kansas region through midday and perhaps longer than that.
This will likely keep temperatures east of the U283 corridor from
moving much above the mid 60s for highs. Farther west, 70s are more
likely for afternoon highs and so will the south winds. The
northwestern forecast area (far west central Kansas) will likely see
afternoon winds sustained in the 25 to 30 mph territory with higher
gusts. This will only be the beginning of a prolonged wind episode,
which will slowly expand across the remainder of our region beyond
this Short Term period.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 358 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022
Wind, wind, and more wind. That will certainly be the theme for the
first part of the Long Term period Wednesday through late Thursday.
We are expected to see abnormally strong winds during the 06-12Z
time frame both Wednesday morning and Thursday morning.
Interestingly, the record high minimum temperature for the calendar
date November 9th is 50F. The lowest hourly temperature grid we will
have going for the 24 hour period midnight to midnight is 58F. It`s
quite possible we may not get below 60F at Dodge City the entire
calendar day Wednesday! As far as the daytime winds go Wednesday,
the area of 25 to 35 mph sustained winds will expand to include a
larger portion of west central Kansas to southwest Kansas. Gusts
Wednesday afternoon will likely be in the 45 to 50 mph range at
times, particularly along/west of U283.
Thursday could be even worse with respect to wind and blowing dust
potential. Thursday is when the major mid latitude cyclone will
develop to our north, leading to a corridor of very intense winds in
the dry intrusion sector of the developing cyclone. The dry
intrusion airstream will likely encompass much of western/central
Kansas early through midday Thursday before a shift in wind to the
northwest occur at about the same speeds -- 30 to 40 mph especially
north of U50 and east of U83. Areas that see gusts frequently at or
above 50 mph will likely contend with blowing dust issues, so we`ve
made sure to keep that in the forecast in these windier areas of the
grids.
The major mid-latitude cyclone will undergo occlusion and wrap up
rapidly across the Northern Plains Thursday Night into early Friday.
Strong cold advection west and southwest of the storm will drive
colder air into western Kansas, thus highs Friday will be much lower
-- mainly in the lower to mid 40s. This will likely set the stage
for a very chilly Saturday morning -- likely the coldest of the
young cold season for much of southwest Kansas with widespread
lows in the 16 to 21F range. This will also mark the beginning of
a fairly cold wave that will set in for the entire weekend into
at least early next week. Any last minute, full blown winterization
should be completed by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 439 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022
VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
mid-evening. Afterward, low level stratus developing within a
southeasterly upslope in northwest Oklahoma will lift northward
into south central and much of southwest Kansas overnight resulting
in possible MVFR cigs initially in vicinity of all TAF sites
generally after 02Z, with further lowering of the stratus deck
bringing about widespread IFR cigs by daybreak Tuesday. Rich low
level moisture may also lead to areas of fog developing late
overnight as well resulting in possible IFR vsbys as far north
and west as KDDC and KHYS toward daybreak. Southeasterly winds
around 10 to 20kt will persist through early Tuesday as surface
high pressure shifts east through the Upper Midwest into the Great
Lakes Region. Winds are then expected to turn more southerly while
increasing 20 to 30kt mid/late Tuesday morning as a developing
lee side trough strengthens in eastern Colorado.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 69 57 75 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 46 69 57 75 / 0 10 0 0
EHA 48 69 56 74 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 48 70 56 75 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 46 67 59 76 / 10 10 0 0
P28 55 68 61 76 / 50 40 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
559 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022
...Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022
Key Messages for active weather this week:
- Strong damaging winds remain possible into early this evening
across the northwest Sandhills, especially up toward the Pine Ridge.
- Increasing confidence for a significant storm system to impact
western and north central Nebraska Wednesday night through Thursday
night with snow, blowing snow, potential icing, and high winds.
- Significantly colder and windy Thursday and Friday.
-Wind chill values as low as 10 below Thursday night and 15 below
Friday night across northern Nebraska.
- Continued cold Saturday through Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022
With southwest flow aloft becoming established across the region
tonight, southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph will transport increasing
low level moisture with dewpoints rising into the 30s to low 40s by
late tonight. The latest NAM12, HRRR and RAP all support stratus
with as saturated layer up to 825mb and drier air aloft. Patchy
drizzle is possible Tuesday morning into early afternoon for areas
near and east of Highway 83. The cloudiness into the afternoon could
result in lower high temperatures than forecast. Trended highs down
to the low to mid 60s, except reaching 70 or warmer in the
southwest.
Could also see a few showers and thunderstorms develop across the
northeast late Tuesday afternoon and evening where elevated
instability will be found on the nose of a low level 45KT jet.
Will see a cold front settle south through the panhandle and
northwest sandhills. To the east, the area will remain in a warm
sector, with lows quite mild in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022
Southwesterly flow aloft become increasingly amplified Wednesday as
an upper trough and closed low moves into the Great Basin. A strong
surface low deepens over northeastern CO. The cold front will lift
northward, an delineate much warmer highs in the 70s across the
south with mid 40s to low 50s across far northern Nebraska.
Attention then turns to the stationary front from central Nebraska
through southeast South Dakota to provide the focus for showers and
thunderstorm chances Wednesday night. While deep layer shear will be
strong, instability will be relative weak at 500J/KG or less.
The amplified upper trough will cross the Central and Southern
Rockies Wednesday night with an upper low developing somewhere on
the leeside of the Rockies, most likely southeastern WY. The
deterministic GFS remains slower and further south than the ECMWF. A
look at Ensemble means for the 12Z GFS and ECMWF are closer showing
a similar track and development of a closed H5 low first over the
northern panhandle then northeast across south central into
northeast SD. Confident remains low on the track, as a slower and
track further to the south remains possible, as shown by the
operational GFS and 12Z/18Z NAM. Latest NBM pops have increased to
as high as 80 percent across northern NE Thursday morning, where
the greatest confidence for precipitation resides. A 30 to 40 POPs
now extends south into far southwest NE on Thursday.
Precipitation type will transition from rain, to a period of
freezing rain or sleet, followed by snow. Bufkit soundings from
the NAM and GFS show a pronounced warm layer between 800mb to
700mb from 0C to 5C which gradually cools. Have introduced the
mention of freezing rain and sleet to the forecast Wednesday night
and Thursday. The impacts from icing could be significant but
remain uncertain at this time, and will need to monitored closely.
Trailing cold front in the wake of the strong surface low tracking
quickly to the northeast on Thursday will bring much colder
temperatures, with temperatures falling to near 20 northwest
Sandhills to near 30 far southeast by late afternoon. Northwest
winds will be strong at 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Wrap-
around snow looks likely across the north and west. Have also
introduced blowing snow across the northwest where accumulating snow
is more probable.
With the track and timing of this system still uncertain, stay tuned
for more details regarding this potential winter system.
The system should exit the area on Friday, remaining cold only 20 to
25 north and 30 to 35 southwest. Still very windy with winds of 20
to 40 mph expected.
The forecast will trend dry for the weekend and on Monday but cold
temperatures persist with highs only recovering to the 30s to around
40 by Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022
As humidity increases from the south, expect low ceilings/stratus
to overspread the area after midnight. Widespread MVFR and IFR
conditions will prevail through much of the day Tuesday.
Conditions may improve some during the late afternoon. Patchy
drizzle is expected Tuesday morning as well. Winds will remain
gusty from the south to southeast at the surface. Winds just off
the surface will be strong and low-level wind shear will be of
concern tonight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for NEZ004-022-023-
035-094.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Taylor
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
118 PM PST Mon Nov 7 2022
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...A deep upper
low will continue to move southward on the west side of the
forecast area tonight and Tuesday. This will bring some light
lower elevation rain and mountain snow. Snow levels will lower to
around 500-1000 ft MSL in the northwest portion of the CWA
(mainly Yakima and Kittitas Counties), and to around 2500 ft MSL
in central OR. This will cause all precipitation to change over to
snow in most areas. The greatest snow amounts are expected to be
over central OR and over the central OR Cascades, mainly near the
crest. The lower elevations in central OR will receive a couple
of inches, while the higher peaks will receive up to about 8
inches. However, the areal coverage of the higher snow amounts are
very small and therefore criteria will not be met for any
advisories there at this time. The upper low is trending to a
further west and southern track, which will reduce the snow
amounts over the CWA, even in central OR. The short range
deterministic models and high resolution ensemble models such as
the HREF, SREF, and HRRR are in good agreement with the track of
the upper low, so forecast confidence for the first 24 to 36 hours
of the short range forecast period is good.
On Tuesday night and Wednesday the upper low will open up to a
trough, with the center of circulation moving south of the
forecast area, and then ejecting to the northeast by late
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This will keep most of
the precipitation, which will be mostly snow, to the south and
east of the CWA. However, there may be a couple of inches over
southern and eastern Wallowa County as the trough moves to the
northeast with a wrap around circulation into Wallowa County.
However, snow amounts will be very light, and mainly an inch or
two over the south and eastern portions of Wallowa County. The
crest of the Eagle Cap Wilderness area in Wallowa County may
receive 2-4 inches of snow. The Deterministic and ensemble 500 mb
flow pattern is still in good agreement Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Also, the cluster analysis for Day 3 (Thursday) shows that
the various clusters of the different models are in good
agreement beyond Wednesday night. Therefore forecast confidence is
still high during the latter part of the short term forecast
period.
The other main concern for the short term forecast period will be
the cold air that will filter into the forecast area. High
temperatures in the lower elevations by Wednesday will be in the
30s, with overnight lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. Maximum
temperatures in the mountains will be mostly in the 20s to near
30, with overnight lows from 10 to 20 degrees. The coldest
locations will be in the high elevation meadows where snow cover
combined with radiational cooling will be the greatest.
Temperatures in all areas will be about 15 to 20 degrees colder
than normal. The NBM 1D Viewer shows some fairly large ranges
between the 10th and 90th percentiles, by as much as 10 degrees.
While this may decrease confidence in forecast temperatures, it is
still going to be cold. Will stay with the NBM forecast
temperatures, but note that temperatures could vary some from the
forecast, and that confidence in the exact temperature forecast
has been decreased due to the variance between the 10th and 90th
percentiles.
Most areas will have light winds, but breezy to locally windy
conditions will persist this afternoon and early evening. At this
time conditions are windy at KPDT, KBDN, KRDM and S33 (Madras).
These winds will decrease this evening as the winds aloft become
decoupled from the surface. However, the ridge tops, especially on
the open terrain ridges with little vegetation, such as the hills
in the Blue Mountain Foothills through the Lower Columbia Basin
into portions of Yakima and Kittitas Counties, may still have
elevated wind speeds at night. Winds will increase again over
mainly the western half of the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon,
especially in north central OR. Winds will become light in all
locations by later Tuesday evening, and then remaining light
through Wednesday night. 88
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Much of the long term looks
to be dry and cold as ensembles depict a synoptic pattern favorable
for light, cold air advection to occur over the region through as
late as early next week. Temperatures likely to be 10 to 15 degrees
below average across our population centers through the period, with
little relief in sight in terms of any organized system advecting in
warmer, more moist air from the Pacific to our southwest.
Thursday starts out with northerly flow over the PacNW on the back
end of a deep low trekking across central CONUS, followed by weak
ridging on Friday. Thinking that conditions will be too cold and
dry, and the ridge too transitory to support any fog concerns
despite subsidence aloft. The synoptic pattern becomes weak, albeit
relatively progressive through the weekend, leading to disparities
across ensemble members, but general consensus is that forecast
stays cold and dry. Some members bring in a weak trough on Saturday,
but QPF ensembles are pretty dry, suggesting that such a system will
be starved for moisture. Pattern looks a bit more messy in ensemble
clustering Sunday and beyond, but general consensus ranges from
continued dry northerly flow to weak zonal flow. No real threats for
precip at this time, even across the high mountains, so looking like
November will stand in stark contrast to the record warmth much of
the region saw in October. Evans/74
&&
.AVIATION...00z TAFs...VFR conditions expected through the period.
Breezy conditions will prevail at a few sites through the early
evening, while most areas see winds 10-15 kts W/SW. Winds will
become less than 10 kts overnight. Clouds will build overnight as
well, becoming bkn-ovc across most sites 5-10 kft. Evans/74
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 25 40 20 36 / 10 0 10 10
ALW 27 43 21 37 / 10 0 10 10
PSC 31 44 25 39 / 10 0 10 10
YKM 25 38 16 40 / 50 10 10 0
HRI 29 42 23 39 / 10 0 10 10
ELN 24 38 17 39 / 50 10 10 0
RDM 23 38 16 38 / 20 30 40 10
LGD 23 41 21 33 / 10 0 10 10
GCD 23 44 21 36 / 10 10 40 20
DLS 31 44 25 44 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74