Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/08/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
441 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 358 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022 Main challenges in the Short Term period will be precipitation, fog potential tonight...and to a lesser degree temperatures and winds through Tuesday Night. The Short Term period will be characterized by increasing southwest flow aloft, allowing a leeside trough to broaden in scope and deepen in a massive upper level trough continues to approach the Great Basin region and eventually the Rockies. The Gulf of Mexico is wide open with surface dewpoints this afternoon as high as 70F as far north as the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Lower to mid 50s dewpoints were found as far northwest as west central Oklahoma this afternoon. Surface winds will continue to veer around to the southeast through the night. These winds will eventually begin tapping this rich low level moisture to our south-southeast, advecting it north-northwestward into portions of southwest and eventually south central Kansas. The vastly increased low level moisture advection tonight will manifest as widespread stratus cloud development, including very low level stratus only a few hundred feet off the ground by daybreak/early morning Tuesday. Numerous hourly runs of the HRRR model are developing quarter-mile visibility in dense fog across mainly south central Kansas, but even some of the more recent model runs are expanding the quarter-mile fog deeper into southwest and central Kansas as well. In the official grids, we will carry patchy to areas of fog, including areas of dense fog across our southeast counties. The evening and late night shift will need to assess further whether a dense fog advisory may be necessary or not. The only inhibiting factor to dense fog would be wind speeds staying up enough to keep the boundary layer mixed just enough, however given how much moisture is expected to move north through the night into a relatively cool atmosphere...dense fog may still occur with south/southeast winds of 10 mph. Regardless if fog develops or not, low stratus will continue across much of the southwest Kansas...and especially the central and south central Kansas region through midday and perhaps longer than that. This will likely keep temperatures east of the U283 corridor from moving much above the mid 60s for highs. Farther west, 70s are more likely for afternoon highs and so will the south winds. The northwestern forecast area (far west central Kansas) will likely see afternoon winds sustained in the 25 to 30 mph territory with higher gusts. This will only be the beginning of a prolonged wind episode, which will slowly expand across the remainder of our region beyond this Short Term period. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 358 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022 Wind, wind, and more wind. That will certainly be the theme for the first part of the Long Term period Wednesday through late Thursday. We are expected to see abnormally strong winds during the 06-12Z time frame both Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. Interestingly, the record high minimum temperature for the calendar date November 9th is 50F. The lowest hourly temperature grid we will have going for the 24 hour period midnight to midnight is 58F. It`s quite possible we may not get below 60F at Dodge City the entire calendar day Wednesday! As far as the daytime winds go Wednesday, the area of 25 to 35 mph sustained winds will expand to include a larger portion of west central Kansas to southwest Kansas. Gusts Wednesday afternoon will likely be in the 45 to 50 mph range at times, particularly along/west of U283. Thursday could be even worse with respect to wind and blowing dust potential. Thursday is when the major mid latitude cyclone will develop to our north, leading to a corridor of very intense winds in the dry intrusion sector of the developing cyclone. The dry intrusion airstream will likely encompass much of western/central Kansas early through midday Thursday before a shift in wind to the northwest occur at about the same speeds -- 30 to 40 mph especially north of U50 and east of U83. Areas that see gusts frequently at or above 50 mph will likely contend with blowing dust issues, so we`ve made sure to keep that in the forecast in these windier areas of the grids. The major mid-latitude cyclone will undergo occlusion and wrap up rapidly across the Northern Plains Thursday Night into early Friday. Strong cold advection west and southwest of the storm will drive colder air into western Kansas, thus highs Friday will be much lower -- mainly in the lower to mid 40s. This will likely set the stage for a very chilly Saturday morning -- likely the coldest of the young cold season for much of southwest Kansas with widespread lows in the 16 to 21F range. This will also mark the beginning of a fairly cold wave that will set in for the entire weekend into at least early next week. Any last minute, full blown winterization should be completed by Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 439 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through mid-evening. Afterward, low level stratus developing within a southeasterly upslope in northwest Oklahoma will lift northward into south central and much of southwest Kansas overnight resulting in possible MVFR cigs initially in vicinity of all TAF sites generally after 02Z, with further lowering of the stratus deck bringing about widespread IFR cigs by daybreak Tuesday. Rich low level moisture may also lead to areas of fog developing late overnight as well resulting in possible IFR vsbys as far north and west as KDDC and KHYS toward daybreak. Southeasterly winds around 10 to 20kt will persist through early Tuesday as surface high pressure shifts east through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. Winds are then expected to turn more southerly while increasing 20 to 30kt mid/late Tuesday morning as a developing lee side trough strengthens in eastern Colorado. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 48 69 57 75 / 10 10 0 0 GCK 46 69 57 75 / 0 10 0 0 EHA 48 69 56 74 / 0 10 0 0 LBL 48 70 56 75 / 10 10 0 0 HYS 46 67 59 76 / 10 10 0 0 P28 55 68 61 76 / 50 40 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
559 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022 ...Aviation Update... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022 Key Messages for active weather this week: - Strong damaging winds remain possible into early this evening across the northwest Sandhills, especially up toward the Pine Ridge. - Increasing confidence for a significant storm system to impact western and north central Nebraska Wednesday night through Thursday night with snow, blowing snow, potential icing, and high winds. - Significantly colder and windy Thursday and Friday. -Wind chill values as low as 10 below Thursday night and 15 below Friday night across northern Nebraska. - Continued cold Saturday through Monday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022 With southwest flow aloft becoming established across the region tonight, southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph will transport increasing low level moisture with dewpoints rising into the 30s to low 40s by late tonight. The latest NAM12, HRRR and RAP all support stratus with as saturated layer up to 825mb and drier air aloft. Patchy drizzle is possible Tuesday morning into early afternoon for areas near and east of Highway 83. The cloudiness into the afternoon could result in lower high temperatures than forecast. Trended highs down to the low to mid 60s, except reaching 70 or warmer in the southwest. Could also see a few showers and thunderstorms develop across the northeast late Tuesday afternoon and evening where elevated instability will be found on the nose of a low level 45KT jet. Will see a cold front settle south through the panhandle and northwest sandhills. To the east, the area will remain in a warm sector, with lows quite mild in the upper 40s to lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022 Southwesterly flow aloft become increasingly amplified Wednesday as an upper trough and closed low moves into the Great Basin. A strong surface low deepens over northeastern CO. The cold front will lift northward, an delineate much warmer highs in the 70s across the south with mid 40s to low 50s across far northern Nebraska. Attention then turns to the stationary front from central Nebraska through southeast South Dakota to provide the focus for showers and thunderstorm chances Wednesday night. While deep layer shear will be strong, instability will be relative weak at 500J/KG or less. The amplified upper trough will cross the Central and Southern Rockies Wednesday night with an upper low developing somewhere on the leeside of the Rockies, most likely southeastern WY. The deterministic GFS remains slower and further south than the ECMWF. A look at Ensemble means for the 12Z GFS and ECMWF are closer showing a similar track and development of a closed H5 low first over the northern panhandle then northeast across south central into northeast SD. Confident remains low on the track, as a slower and track further to the south remains possible, as shown by the operational GFS and 12Z/18Z NAM. Latest NBM pops have increased to as high as 80 percent across northern NE Thursday morning, where the greatest confidence for precipitation resides. A 30 to 40 POPs now extends south into far southwest NE on Thursday. Precipitation type will transition from rain, to a period of freezing rain or sleet, followed by snow. Bufkit soundings from the NAM and GFS show a pronounced warm layer between 800mb to 700mb from 0C to 5C which gradually cools. Have introduced the mention of freezing rain and sleet to the forecast Wednesday night and Thursday. The impacts from icing could be significant but remain uncertain at this time, and will need to monitored closely. Trailing cold front in the wake of the strong surface low tracking quickly to the northeast on Thursday will bring much colder temperatures, with temperatures falling to near 20 northwest Sandhills to near 30 far southeast by late afternoon. Northwest winds will be strong at 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Wrap- around snow looks likely across the north and west. Have also introduced blowing snow across the northwest where accumulating snow is more probable. With the track and timing of this system still uncertain, stay tuned for more details regarding this potential winter system. The system should exit the area on Friday, remaining cold only 20 to 25 north and 30 to 35 southwest. Still very windy with winds of 20 to 40 mph expected. The forecast will trend dry for the weekend and on Monday but cold temperatures persist with highs only recovering to the 30s to around 40 by Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022 As humidity increases from the south, expect low ceilings/stratus to overspread the area after midnight. Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions will prevail through much of the day Tuesday. Conditions may improve some during the late afternoon. Patchy drizzle is expected Tuesday morning as well. Winds will remain gusty from the south to southeast at the surface. Winds just off the surface will be strong and low-level wind shear will be of concern tonight. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for NEZ004-022-023- 035-094. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roberg SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Taylor
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
118 PM PST Mon Nov 7 2022 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...A deep upper low will continue to move southward on the west side of the forecast area tonight and Tuesday. This will bring some light lower elevation rain and mountain snow. Snow levels will lower to around 500-1000 ft MSL in the northwest portion of the CWA (mainly Yakima and Kittitas Counties), and to around 2500 ft MSL in central OR. This will cause all precipitation to change over to snow in most areas. The greatest snow amounts are expected to be over central OR and over the central OR Cascades, mainly near the crest. The lower elevations in central OR will receive a couple of inches, while the higher peaks will receive up to about 8 inches. However, the areal coverage of the higher snow amounts are very small and therefore criteria will not be met for any advisories there at this time. The upper low is trending to a further west and southern track, which will reduce the snow amounts over the CWA, even in central OR. The short range deterministic models and high resolution ensemble models such as the HREF, SREF, and HRRR are in good agreement with the track of the upper low, so forecast confidence for the first 24 to 36 hours of the short range forecast period is good. On Tuesday night and Wednesday the upper low will open up to a trough, with the center of circulation moving south of the forecast area, and then ejecting to the northeast by late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This will keep most of the precipitation, which will be mostly snow, to the south and east of the CWA. However, there may be a couple of inches over southern and eastern Wallowa County as the trough moves to the northeast with a wrap around circulation into Wallowa County. However, snow amounts will be very light, and mainly an inch or two over the south and eastern portions of Wallowa County. The crest of the Eagle Cap Wilderness area in Wallowa County may receive 2-4 inches of snow. The Deterministic and ensemble 500 mb flow pattern is still in good agreement Wednesday and Wednesday night. Also, the cluster analysis for Day 3 (Thursday) shows that the various clusters of the different models are in good agreement beyond Wednesday night. Therefore forecast confidence is still high during the latter part of the short term forecast period. The other main concern for the short term forecast period will be the cold air that will filter into the forecast area. High temperatures in the lower elevations by Wednesday will be in the 30s, with overnight lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. Maximum temperatures in the mountains will be mostly in the 20s to near 30, with overnight lows from 10 to 20 degrees. The coldest locations will be in the high elevation meadows where snow cover combined with radiational cooling will be the greatest. Temperatures in all areas will be about 15 to 20 degrees colder than normal. The NBM 1D Viewer shows some fairly large ranges between the 10th and 90th percentiles, by as much as 10 degrees. While this may decrease confidence in forecast temperatures, it is still going to be cold. Will stay with the NBM forecast temperatures, but note that temperatures could vary some from the forecast, and that confidence in the exact temperature forecast has been decreased due to the variance between the 10th and 90th percentiles. Most areas will have light winds, but breezy to locally windy conditions will persist this afternoon and early evening. At this time conditions are windy at KPDT, KBDN, KRDM and S33 (Madras). These winds will decrease this evening as the winds aloft become decoupled from the surface. However, the ridge tops, especially on the open terrain ridges with little vegetation, such as the hills in the Blue Mountain Foothills through the Lower Columbia Basin into portions of Yakima and Kittitas Counties, may still have elevated wind speeds at night. Winds will increase again over mainly the western half of the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon, especially in north central OR. Winds will become light in all locations by later Tuesday evening, and then remaining light through Wednesday night. 88 .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Much of the long term looks to be dry and cold as ensembles depict a synoptic pattern favorable for light, cold air advection to occur over the region through as late as early next week. Temperatures likely to be 10 to 15 degrees below average across our population centers through the period, with little relief in sight in terms of any organized system advecting in warmer, more moist air from the Pacific to our southwest. Thursday starts out with northerly flow over the PacNW on the back end of a deep low trekking across central CONUS, followed by weak ridging on Friday. Thinking that conditions will be too cold and dry, and the ridge too transitory to support any fog concerns despite subsidence aloft. The synoptic pattern becomes weak, albeit relatively progressive through the weekend, leading to disparities across ensemble members, but general consensus is that forecast stays cold and dry. Some members bring in a weak trough on Saturday, but QPF ensembles are pretty dry, suggesting that such a system will be starved for moisture. Pattern looks a bit more messy in ensemble clustering Sunday and beyond, but general consensus ranges from continued dry northerly flow to weak zonal flow. No real threats for precip at this time, even across the high mountains, so looking like November will stand in stark contrast to the record warmth much of the region saw in October. Evans/74 && .AVIATION...00z TAFs...VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy conditions will prevail at a few sites through the early evening, while most areas see winds 10-15 kts W/SW. Winds will become less than 10 kts overnight. Clouds will build overnight as well, becoming bkn-ovc across most sites 5-10 kft. Evans/74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 25 40 20 36 / 10 0 10 10 ALW 27 43 21 37 / 10 0 10 10 PSC 31 44 25 39 / 10 0 10 10 YKM 25 38 16 40 / 50 10 10 0 HRI 29 42 23 39 / 10 0 10 10 ELN 24 38 17 39 / 50 10 10 0 RDM 23 38 16 38 / 20 30 40 10 LGD 23 41 21 33 / 10 0 10 10 GCD 23 44 21 36 / 10 10 40 20 DLS 31 44 25 44 / 30 10 10 10 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74