Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/06/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
812 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm conditions will continue overnight into Sunday. An
approaching front will cause clouds and spotty showers, but much
of the time will be dry. The weakening front will cross the
region Sunday night into Monday, followed by dry high pressure
taking back over through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
810 PM Update...
Details were touched up to tease out the ebb-and-flow of
individual waves of light showers later tonight through Sunday.
It will be dry most of the time, yet most places will also end
up with at least a little rain. Also, temperatures tonight were
touched up a bit more based on latest guidance. They were
already warm, but confidence is even higher now that we will be
at record warm minimums overnight; lows ridiculously 8-16
degrees above climatological HIGHS. See climate section for more
details, including that Syracuse easily broke their daily record
today by hitting 77 degrees.
Previous discussion...
We issued a wind advisory from Yates County northeast to
Onondaga County for tonight (00z-08z). The 12z NAM shows upper
level low embedded within a larger scale trough over the western
1/2 of the country over IA moving northeast tonight reaching
James Bay Canada by 12z Sunday. This feature will push a cold
front and associated trough into the eastern Great Lakes. With
the strong persistent vertically stacked upper level anticyclone
remaining stationary off the northeast coast, this will lead to
an increased pressure gradient across NY and PA tonight.
Despite the increased pressure gradient this is a tricky wind
forecast since we are looking at southerly winds and cooler air
stuck down near the surface layer. This tends to slow down
higher wind gusts from mixing down and hence generally precludes
reaching impactful winds at the surface despite strong pressure
gradients. So we look at low-level lapse rates and how far down
the higher winds get. Based on the 12z NAM, places like PEO and
SYR see a nearly dry adiabatic lapse rate up to 1900 feet AGL
where model winds are running 45 to 50 knots. 40 knots sustained
winds reach down to 1000 feet AGL around 4-8z tonight. The
soundings from the 12z NAM is similar at SYR but 1 or 2 knots
lighter. Also both locations downslope off the higher mountains
from the southwest as well. Local study on south winds using
stability and wind speeds combined strongly suggests advisory
winds at PEO and SYR from the NAM 12z run. The latest HRRR is a
tad stronger. The 12z GFS also looks a tad stronger than the NAM
as well.
As for POPs, we are seeing patchy drizzle and light rain showers
from Bradford County PA northeast to Otsego, Chenango and Delaware
Counties in NY and in much of northeast PA/Sullivan County NY. These
areas are seeing enough low-level moisture upsloping on southerly
winds which is leading to the very light precipitation. We will
continue POPs for drizzle/light rain showers until showers from
approaching upper level low and front that will reach the eastern
Lakes by 12z Sunday. For Sunday, front weakens and nearly stalls
over our area as the strongest upper level support heads off far to
our northwest. Hence there will be scattered showers around most of
Sunday. For Sunday night, larger upper level trough slides north of
the Great lakes into eastern Quebec. This feature will force another
low-level high pressure system into the Great Lakes by Monday. This
will be the impetus to strengthen the stalled front over our area
pushing it to northern NY southwest to northeast PA by 12z Monday.
Hence our area will see more showers Sunday night which taper off
late Sunday night/Monday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Another strong high pressure system will build into the area
from the west, which will dominate the weather pattern
through the period. Temps on Monday are still expected to be
warm behind the cold front as most of the colder air will skirt
north of the region during the day. Highs will reach the upper
50s to mid 60s across most of the region, with upper 60s across
NEPA. Monday night, clear skies and drier air will allow temps
to fall into the mid to upper 30s.
A reinforcing shot of cooler air from NW flow out of Canada
will keep temperatures cooler on Tuesday, with highs only
reaching the mid 40s to low 50s across the region. Clear skies
are expected to continue through Tuesday and into the night.
This, combined with the center of the high directly overhead and
very light winds will allow some pretty efficient radiational
cooling, dropping overnight lows down to the mid to upper 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will remain the weather master into Friday,
continuing the warm weather pattern. Highs will be in the upper
50s to mid 60 across the area.
The next weather maker is expected to come from a trough moving
into the area from the west on Friday, combined with low
pressure system off the GA/FL coast. Guidance is still a little
murky on how the northern trough will interact with the southern
low. Currently, a surface low generated by the northern trough
could bring rain showers to all of the CWA, or develop farther
east and skirt NEPA and the eastern CWA with rain. With these
setups, the southern low gets pulled out to sea and misses our
area completely. If we can get any tilting of the trough as it
migrates eastward, it could pull the southern low farther west
and possibly impact the region. Right now, the uncertainty is
too great to give any particular solution more credence than
another so NBM guidance was used with a slight reduction in PoPs
on Friday. On thing that is pretty certain is that the cold
front that will push through the region sometime Friday or
Saturday will end the stretch of very warm weather we have had,
bringing temperatures back down to normal values.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main concern overnight is a strong southerly low level jet that
has developed ahead of an approaching front. Confidence has
increased enough for low level wind shear to be met at all
terminals and thus it has been expanded to all TAFs. As the
front approaches late tonight-early Sunday, moistening
conditions will eventually cause MVFR ceilings and spotty
showers. The front will slow down and then stall Sunday, which
will allow ceiling restrictions to persist much of the day.
KBGM-KAVP and probably briefly KRME will likely slip into fuel
alternate required levels. With the stalling front, winds will
be little changed in direction out of the south or south-
southwest, though low level wind shear will go away.
Outlook...
Sunday night...Occasional restrictions and spotty showers as a
front slowly finishes pushing through.
Monday through Thursday...Dry high pressure builds back in and
takes charge with VFR conditions.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Syracuse hit 77 degrees today 11/5, easily breaking its daily
record high of 73 that was set in 2015.
By midnight tonight, the coldest temperatures in the 24 hour
period may be within a degree or two on either side of the
record warm minimum temperatures.
Syracuse 57 (1948)
Binghamton 56 (2015)
Scranton 61 (1938)
On the calendar day 11/6 the warmest minimum temperature values
are forecast to be set at all three climate sites.
Syracuse forecast: 61, current record 55 (1912)
Binghamton forecast: 61 current record 53 (2015)
Scranton forecast: 63 current record 60 (1938)
However, high temperatures are forecast near to a few degrees
shy of record values on 11/6 for Syracuse-Binghamton, and
several degrees short at Scranton.
Syracuse forecast: 74, current record 75 (1948)
Binghamton forecast: 68, current record 70 (2005)
Scranton forecast: 71, current record 77 (2015)
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for NYZ015>018.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MDP
CLIMATE...MDP/MWG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
310 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022
CWA is situated in subsident branch of 145kt 250mb jet streak nosing
into west/central WY this afternoon. GOES-17 VIS imagery showed
numerous mountain waves (rotor clouds) over south-central and
southeast WY. Many of the waves were breaking allowing 60 to 80kt
winds aloft to descend to the surface. Since early this morning,
winds were frequently gusting between 65 and 85 MPH. The highest
gust occurred 12mi SSE of Horse Creek with 90 MPH! Cheyenne/s peak
gust was 78 MPH just before 3 PM. The 850mb CAG-CPR & CAG-BRX
gradients peaked between 105 and 120 mtrs just before midday, and
will slowly decrease through the afternoon and evening. High Wind
Warnings for areas east of I-25 will continue until 6 PM, much of
south- central and southeast WY wind- prone areas until 9 PM, and
Arlington, Bordeaux and I-80 Summit until 1 AM. Westerly winds will
slowly subside this evening as a frontal system moves through the
CWA. The HRRR has been consistently depicting a narrow intense band
of snow showers forming over northern Carbon County shortly after
00Z and spreading east and south along the I-80 corridor to near
Cheyenne by 04Z. Increased PoPs along and south of this feature,
including the Snowy/Sierra Madre ranges where accumulations exceed 6
inches above 9000 feet. Current Winter Weather Advisories for snow
and blowing snow remain valid through 6 AM Sunday.
Strong westerly flow aloft will persist Sunday, becoming southwesterly
Sunday night through Monday night as the next significant upper level
trough moves ashore into the Pacific Coast states. Embedded shortwaves
within the westerly flow will produce scattered snow showers west of
the Laramie Range Sunday, tapering off Sunday night as the energy
shifts to the northeast.
Lingering cold air advection Sunday will keep below normal temperatures
with highs in the 30s and 40s. Temperatures moderate to seasonal normals
Monday with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s. It will continue breezy
to windy Sunday and Monday due to the stronger flow aloft.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022
A fairly active weather pattern continues into the long term period.
Warm temperatures and strong SW winds Tuesday/Wednesday will transition
to well-below normal temperatures and possible precipitation Wednesday
into Thursday.
The synoptic pattern on Tuesday will look a lot like it did Tuesday
of last week, with a strong, deep trough digging southeastward into
the West Coast, and an amplifying ridge located downstream over the
southern plains and southeast US. The trough digging and sliding eastward
will increase southwesterly flow aloft on Tuesday, advecting in some
rather warm air. 700-mb temperatures could climb to +3 to +7C Tuesday,
with the warmest values further south and east. This would support
well above average temperatures for much of the area, with mid to upper
50s west of the Laramie range, and 60s to even some 70s east of the
Laramie range. The GFS shows 700-mb winds of over 50-knots across western
Carbon county, so we could also be looking at near high winds with
SSW to SW flow. Winds don`t look to strong further east though, so
should be a very nice day for those areas. The potential for strong
SSW to SW winds will continue into Wednesday, as models have been trending
slightly slower with the arrival of the trough and transition to more
westerly flow aloft.
The slower trough also coincides with a potentially slower progression
of another surface high sliding down the lee of the Rockies. Much
colder air will be moving in behind this front, and its precise timing
will have a huge impact on Wednesday`s high temperatures. Trended
temperatures up slightly along the Cheyenne ridge, where we may be
able to get some warming before the front plows through. Northern areas
will probably be very chilly with the front pushing through before
warming can get going. However, considering this is Day 5, precise
frontal passage timing is highly uncertain. The main takeaway is that
there is an enormous spread in forecast high temperatures for Wednesday
afternoon. Precipitation is also fairly uncertain. There is medium
to high confidence in at least light precipitation falling for most
areas west of the Laramie range, but confidence is lower to the east.
In addition to the slower trend in the models` treatment of the upper
level trough, they have been also trending slightly further south and
east, leading to lee cyclogenesis over Colorado instead of SE Wyoming.
This could allow a quick hit of snow on the backside of the low
pressure system on Wednesday night. A slight trend back to the north
would put much of our area east of the Laramie range in dry downslope
flow, so confidence is low. About half of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble
members are showing QPF reaching as far south as KCYS at this time,
but amounts remain fairly low even on the wettest scenario. Depending
on the exact track of the low, we also will have to watch out for
strong westerly winds in the wind prone areas with this system on
Thursday and possibly into Friday. Temperatures will be well-below
average behind this system, with highs struggling to get to freezing
on Thursday. Some moderation looks likely by Saturday, but remaining
on the chilly side.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022
Widespread high winds are now impacting much of the area. Wind gusts
as high as 50 to 55 knots remain possible for SE WY terminals and
KBFF through the mid afternoon hours. Gusts could reach 35 to 45
knots at other NE terminals. If winds briefly drop at the surface,
as occurred at KCYS in the last hour, significant LLWS will be
present with winds howling just above the surface. Expect significant
mountain wave activity and turbulence through much of the atmosphere.
A frontal boundary will push through this evening, and could bring
some briefly intense snow squall activity to KRWL and KLAR, with
rain/snow showers possible near other terminals also. Expect a wind
shift to the NW remaining quite gusty when the boundary passes through.
The timing is still a little uncertain, but generally thinking around
02z-04z for KRWL and 03z-05z for KLAR. VIS as low as 1/4 SM is possible,
but intense snowfall is not expected to be long- lived. CIGs will drop
at other terminals when the boundary passes through, so could see brief
MVFR conditions. Improving aviation conditions are expected towards
Sunday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022
Strong west to southwest winds will continue this afternoon and evening,
especially in wind-prone areas. A cold front will progress east across
the area this evening, producing scattered to numerous rain and snow
showers. Periods of moderate snow will fall over the Snowy and Sierra
Madre ranges tonight. Precipitation will continue Sunday, ending Sunday
night. Lowest relative humidities will range from 25 to 35 percent east
of the Laramie Range Sunday, increasing to 35 to 45 percent Monday.
It will remain breezy to windy Sunday and Monday. Warmer temperatures
Tuesday will be replaced by colder temperatures and chances for snow
Wednesday.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ101-107-108-
118-119.
High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ104-105-109-
113-115-117.
High Wind Warning until 1 AM MDT Sunday for WYZ106-110-116.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Sunday for WYZ112-114.
NE...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ019-020-054.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
810 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022
Current surface observations and radar imagery show the cold
front across far southwestern WY making steady progress south
nearing the UT/CO border. A couple of hours ago, there was some
thundersnow near Rock Springs, so the instability is there as
expected. KGJX radar is picking up on some light/moderate
precipitation from near Greystone to just north of Hayden, but
nothing has been reported at the surface that we can tell, and if
it is precipitating it is likely rain given the pre-frontal temps
in the lower 40s. However, a second line of showers is showing up
over the WY/CO border, and that is likely the frontal band and
colder air that short term high resolution models have moving
south over northwest CO between 0830 and 1130 pm this evening
before stalling out north of the Tavaputs and near the Flat Tops.
The forecast is in good shape with the expected period of moderate
to locally heavy snow under this band through the overnight
hours. The evening update only made some minor tweaks to an
earlier timing of the higher chances of precipitation moving
south.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022
Moisture from a strong Atmospheric River continues to stream
across the north with plenty of lift as a 170+ kt jet lays across
Idaho and Wyoming just north of the CWA. Precipitation earlier
today (this morning) was very shallow with not much return on
radar but light snow was falling in the northern mountains and
down to the Elks with reports of freezing drizzle at Vail. Roads
appeared slick with some glazing so issued a Winter Weather
Advisory earlier for this activity for COZ010 that expired at 2 pm
MDT as temperatures have warmed above freezing. When looking at
some BUFKIT soundings around the area, the profile indicated the
potential for freezing drizzle. The model integrated water vapor
transport (IWT) for this AR event is indicating standard
deviations of 2 to 4 above climo across western Colorado and 4 to
6 above climo further west across the Great Basin (Nevada into
Utah). Some clearing has occurred this afternoon across portions
of the area, which has resulted in this warmup and deep mixing,
with some breezy conditions across northwest Colorado, in closer
proximity to the upper level jet.
The models have been somewhat consistent the last several runs
with showing a cold front dropping southward this evening into
Sunday morning, and potential banding setting up across northwest
Colorado. Models are also indicating a strong band of
frontogenesis laying across northwest Colorado as well between the
00Z (6 pm MDT) this evening through 12Z (5 am MST...don`t forget
the time change tonight) Sunday morning. 850 to 700 mb streamlines
also indicate strong convergence boundary forming somewhere near
the Highway 40 corridor from Craig to Steamboat Springs. Also,
lending to higher confidence in this band of heavy snow forming is
the experimental Snowband Probability Tracker (SPT) that is
showing higher probability in snowbands forming over the Park
Range and Flattops as well as Upper Yampa River valley from about
Craig to Steamboat Springs. The latest CAM guidance also shows
this band forming across the Elkheads by around 00Z/6 pm MDT and
tracking southward across Highway 40 and the Park Range around
03Z/9 pm MDT and lingering somewhere over the Flattops through
about 12Z/5 am MST before lifting back northward and weakening.
Expecting 4 to 8 inches of snow for Steamboat Springs and the
Upper Yampa River Valley with 2 to 6 inches for the lower Yampa
River Valley, including Craig and Hayden in this 12 hour period.
Therefore, added COZ002 and COZ005 to the Winter Weather Advisory
from 00Z/6 pm MDT today through 18Z/11 am MST Sunday. The Winter
Weather Advisory remains in place through 00Z/5 pm MST Sunday for
the northern mountains, including the Elkheads and Park Range
(COZ004) as well as Flattops (COZ013). Snow is possible for the
Gore and Elk Mountains as well as Grand Mesa this evening into
Sunday, favoring Vail Pass, but amounts at this time look to stay
below advisory criteria as the bulk of the forcing remains north
of I-70. Later shifts will need to keep a close eye on the
snowfall rates and location of where the band sets up to see if
any expansion or upgrades of the winter weather headlines are
warranted.
By Sunday afternoon, the polar jet will lift back northward as a
deeper colder system moves into the Pacific Northwest, causing an
amplification of the polar jet with a deep trough carving over the
western states with an amplified ridge of high pressure across the
Four Corners into the northern Rockies. Southwest flow increases
as a result of this tightened gradient Sunday afternoon with
breezy conditions and warming temperatures under clearing skies as
deep mixing looks to occur. While highs on Sunday will be 5 to 10
degrees milder across central and southern areas compared to
today, the north will still remain cooler due to the passage of
the aforementioned cold front and dip of the polar jet. The north
looks to thaw out early next week as the polar jet lifts further
north and strong WAA takes place.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022
On Monday, a strong low pressure will be rotating just off the
Pacific Northwest coast, while a ridge amplifies over the central
US and southern Canada. This will set the stage for modest
southwest flow across our forecast area. That means temperatures
above normal by about 5 to 10 degrees. Also, the winds will pick
up initially across the western half of the area on Monday and
then the entire area by Tuesday. Where mixing is favorable as
well as the higher terrain wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be
common. A few locations may gust above 40 mph, which may expand
as we get closer to the event. The low pressure will make landfall
in northern California late Tuesday with a plume of moisture
streaming ahead of that system. Models show precipitation will
arrive in northeast Utah and northwest Colorado Tuesday afternoon
and evening. The low is expected to lift over the northern Great
Basin and eventually pass just to our north on Wednesday. So the
precipitation should spread from west to east Tuesday night
becoming widespread on Wednesday.
As previously mentioned snow levels will initially be relatively
high, 7,500 to 8,500 feet, and drop through out the day Wednesday
as the system sweeps through. This low pressure will pass through
rather quickly so it looks like one main round of precipitation
before dry air filters in behind the system. Modest frontogenesis
looks to be the main forcing. Snow levels may reach the higher
valleys early Wednesday as rates increase, and the desert valleys
by the evening. Some of the desert valleys could see snow
accumulation, but moisture and forcing will be decreasing once the
temp profile supports snow. Another factor that may limit snow in
the lower valleys is the time of day as a bulk of the precip
occurs during peak insolation. These details could change as we
get closure in time. Most of the mountain ranges will receive snow
although the southern facing slopes may be favored overall. By
Wednesday night the low pressure lifts out over the plains leaving
us in westerly flow. Snow showers look to gradually decrease
intensity overnight with the central and southern mountains
becoming favored. The higher valleys also see a down tick as the
large-scale lift exits the region. Orographic snow showers may
linger in the northern mountains during the day Thursday. Overall
it appears like an advisory event for the higher terrain given the
quick speed of the system. Dry westerly flow aloft takes over
Friday into next weekend with temperatures remaining below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022
The main forecast challenge this period is the cold front sagging
south over northern CO tonight with the potential for moderate to
heavy snow bands affecting KHDN overnight into Sunday morning.
Used a blend of the NAM and HRRR for timing of lower ceilings/vsby
coming in after 03Z. The snow will expand southward close to the
I-70 corridor from KRIL to KEGE, so included mention of VCSH or
-SHSN for those airports along with attendant lower ceilings and
vsby. The other concern is the non-convective low level wind shear
for KTEX, KEGE, KASE and KGUC to account for the strong westerly
winds above the low level inversion and light valley surface
winds. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Sunday for COZ002-005.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Sunday for COZ004-013.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BM
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...BM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1000 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022
A few sites continue to see wind gusts near advisory criteria
(mainly near the lakeshore) but the diminishing trend will
continue overnight and the wind advisory was allowed to expire
earlier. Rain has ended but we have a batch of stratus/stratocu
associated with the cold advection affecting mainly wrn and nrn
sections of the area at this time. Those clouds lift out later
tonight, so all areas eventually turning clear to partly cloudy
with lows in the 40s. Will be extending the Gale Warning into
Sunday north of Whitehall as winds increase again after a brief
overnight lull below gales. This may need to be expanded farther
south in later updates.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022
- High Winds and Heavy Rain Showers Early then clearing
I see no reason to change any of our headlines. Once the narrow
frontal rain band moves across the area we will see around 6 hours
of winds frequently gusting to near 50 mph. The latest run of the
HRRR and RAP model show this nicely. Any gusts above 59 mph would
likely occur with narrow frontal rainband moving across our CWA
between 330 pm and 5:30 pm. All areas will see this, not lasting
more than 15 minutes at any one location. Expect wind gusts
between 35 mph and 55 mph and brief heavy rainfall as it crosses
your area in Southwest Michigan.
It is curious that the low level jet weakens significantly (75
knots to 60 knots) between 3 pm and 6 pm as the core of highest
wind speeds moves nearly due north toward Lake Superior by late
afternoon. Another low level jet forms and strengthens from
western Lake Erie northward to Lake Huron. The developing low
level jet will keep our line of convection going as it heads
across the C WA.
Once the front has come through air temperatures should fall
quickly into the lower 50s and winds will remain gusty into late
evening. It is worth noting the area of coldest air moves through
our forecast area around midnight. We then start to bring in
warmer air at mid levels. That will clear the clouds and lower
wind speeds during the early morning hours of Sunday.
- A second cold front cross the area Sunday afternoon
We will not see the clearing last all that long as a second cold
front comes through the area later in the day Sunday. There is not
enough mid level moisture for shower as this front comes through
through. Once that front comes through skies will clear once again
but this time should stay clear for several days. This does bring
in cooler air. However all this does is bring our temperatures
closer to normal but yet not colder than normal.
- Warmer than normal with some sunshine most of this week
Most of this coming week should be near to above normal in
temperature and feature a fair amount of daily sunshine. We can
thank our next Pacific storm coming on shore between British
Columbia and the state of Oregon during the day Sunday. The jet
segment rotating around it breaks up into two parts. The lead wave
tracks east and causes our cool down the Monday and Tuesday. The
second segement of the polar jet digs nearly due south off shore
of our CONUS West Coast. That keeps the system just off shore too,
well at least into midweek. During that time a large upper ridge
develops from the Gulf States to the Great Lakes. The polar jet
will then be located near Hudson Bay in the Tuesday into Wednesday
time frame. That will mean the cooler temperatures (still near to
slightly warmer than normal) are the result of that.
- Cold air returns with some lake effect snow shower by weekend
The next upstream Pacific system forces that system stalled off
the west coast to finally move inland. It reaches our area late in
the coming week. Once it gets here we will likely have rain
showers on the warm side of the system in the Friday/Saturday time
frame. Then the coldest air of the season so far comes in with
850 temperatures near -10c. That will cause lake effect snow
showers by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022
Winds diminishing this evening with peak gusts falling below 30
kts by Midnight. Sustained winds likely even dropping off to
around 10 kts overnight (with the exception of Muskegon). On
Sunday the winds will increase and become gusty again by 15Z
although not nearly as strong as on Saturday. Peak gusts should
be more like 25-30 kts. VFR is expected for the most part over the
next 24 hours, although some MVFR cigs are expected at MKG and
GRR through about Midnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022
We plan to keep our Storm Warning until 8 pm then a gale warning
will run until 1 am then that will be followed by a SCA. The small
craft advisory will continue into early Monday morning.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LMZ844>847.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ844>847.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ848-849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meade
DISCUSSION...WDM
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1032 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022
Tonight`s main forecast issue remains fog potential with
everything else behaving as expected this evening. Latest sfc obs
indicate temp/dewpoint spreads remaining a bit elevated, while
winds are more light/variable than calm at the moment. However
dewpoints jumped across the far sern zones once the front lifted
back nwd, thus those spreads should close up overnight as the
front continues its inland trek. Low ceilings seem quite the
certainly behind the frontal passage given current conditions...if
winds can totally lie down, fog will become more of an issue.
Latest fog guidance outside of the RAP isn`t very bullish on
development overnight...suspect these are underplaying the quick
re-moistening as the boundary pushes through. For now, will
maintain the inherited patchy fog wording, but will certainly be
keeping an eye on conditions as we approach the overnight hours.
Elsewhere, inherited grids/zones look in good shape as is. No
update planned.
25
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022
A few clouds linger over the Atchafalaya Basin at this hour, the
remnants of the cold front now located in southeast Louisiana.
Conditions outside are beautiful, albeit a bit damp from rains
overnight. With a fairly light north wind, and temperatures in the
mid 60s to low 70s... you can`t beat this on a Saturday.
Unfortunately it will only last today and into this evening. The
cold front will begin losing its easterly motion tonight as its
upper level forcing has lifted out, and it`s blocked by surface
high pressure over the ern Gulf. The surface high is then
forecast to spread further wwd tonight, with our winds turning
east and then southeast. The resulting flow will drag the front
nwd back into central Louisiana overnight, denoted by a thick low
level cloud deck expected to spread nwd with it. Widespread areas
of patchy fog (some dense) are likely to form after midnight as
the moist airmass slides northward. As for now no Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued, but one may be needed later tonight.
Tomorrow, the high expands further into the east and northeast
Gulf, driving the warm airmass into northern Louisiana. A few
showers and rumbles of thunder are possible during the afternoon
within the warm sector. Warmer, above average temperatures then
return in the afternoon tomorrow and Monday with plenty of Gulf
moisture to make it feel like late September all over again.
11
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022
A mid to upper level ridge of high pressure from Texas to the
Carolinas will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday. No significant
moisture and lift expected to generate any precipitation through
this period. Temperatures will average around 10 degrees above
normal with lows in the lower to mid 60s and highs in the lower to
mid 80s.
Thursday through Saturday. The upper level ridge expected to shift
east with a large mid to upper level trough digging across the
Central U.S. on Thursday, and becoming the predominate feature
across the Central and Eastern U.S by Friday and Saturday. This will
bring a strong cold front through the region by Friday, with strong
northerly winds and much colder temperatures behind it Friday night
and Saturday. Guidance continues to be rather dry across our region,
even during the frontal passage with chances of precipitation less
than 20% Friday. Most guidance keeps all of the moisture and lift
across the Eastern Gulf, Florida, and the Bahamas associated with
the low/disturbance. As mentioned, much colder temperatures expected
by Friday night and Saturday, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
below normal.
08/DML
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022
A messy pattern will unfold overnight, especially in regards to
CIGS/VIS, as a stalled front to our east/southeast begins to lift
back across the region. Beginning around 03-04Z along the coast
ceilings will begin to fall to MVFR, followed by a reduction to
IFR and eventually LIFR through the next few hours. This will
occur first at the Acadiana terminals, with clouds spread
north/northwestward overnight to the remaining terminals. Along
with falling ceilings, visibility will begin to plummet as well as
fog develops, likely beginning around the midnight hour. Guidance
is most confident at LCH, but some fog is possible at all
terminals through the early morning hours. Tomorrow post sunrise,
the front will continue to gradually lift out of the region, which
will allow conditions to improve through the late morning. Fog
will burn off and ceilings will slowly return to VFR by mid day.
VFR conditions are expected areawide through tomorrow afternoon.
17
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022
Winds and seas will continue to relax this evening with the
broadening pressure gradient and the departure of the front from
coastal waters. High pressure centered over FL/GA is forecast to
expand into the eastern Gulf tonight and tomorrow, resulting in
easterly then southeasterly flow. Scattered showers and very
isolated thunderstorms are possible tomorrow as southerly winds
lift a warm front back onshore tomorrow. Onshore flow, moderate at
times, will then prevail through the start of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 55 82 66 86 / 0 20 10 10
LCH 59 81 66 82 / 10 20 0 0
LFT 64 84 67 85 / 0 20 0 0
BPT 59 81 67 82 / 0 20 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
635 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2022
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show that the well-defined
shortwave that was over eastern NM/nw TX 24hrs ago has lifted ne
into southern WI, and it is now taking on a negative tilt. At sfc,
associated deepening 989mb sfc low is centered in central WI.
Widespread shra associated with this system have been lifting across
the fcst area today, and the pcpn/clouds have held temps down to the
upper 30s/lwr 40s F across much of the fcst area. However, with warm
front extending ne from the low making some progress to the nw,
temps have risen into the low/mid 50s F from Menominee to Escanaba
to Newberry.
Shra will continue to spread across the area over the next several
hrs as the sfc low tracks nne, crossing western Upper MI and central
Lake Superior late this aftn/evening. Those shra will wind down and
end most locations by late evening as the low quickly exits the
area. Steadier pcpn will linger longest over western Upper MI as
deformation pcpn shield lifts across that area. Otherwise, main
focus of attention will shift to strong s to sw winds that will
surge across roughly the e half of the fcst area this evening as the
low passes. Current 4mb/3hr pres rise max over se IA/ne MO/IL will
increase to 8mb/3hr as it lifts across central Upper MI/central Lake
Superior this evening. The resulting isallobaric wind component will
be largely aligned with the gradient wind to give a good boost to
winds for a time. Fcst soundings suggest some potential to tap 50-
60kt winds close to Lake MI. Given the isallobaric boost, plan to
upgrade Delta/Schoolcraft counties to high wind warning for wind
gusts to 60 mph, though for Delta County the main area of concern
will be on the Garden Peninsula and along the shore of Big Bay de
Noc. For both counties, warning criteria gusts (at least 58mph)
should only last 1 to 2hrs. Will maintain wind advy for Alger/Luce
and add Menominee County. Power outages are expected along with some
tree damage, especially for Delta/Schoolcraft counties. Winds will
not be as strong to the west of the advy/warning areas. Across the
entire area, winds will diminish overnight.
With the strong s to sw winds building waves up to 15-17ft over the
Lake MI shoreline areas of Schoolcraft County and along the Garden
Peninsula of Delta County this evening, expect beach erosion and
some lakeshore flooding. Thus, the Lakeshore Flood Warning still
looks on target with no major changes to ongoing headlines.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2022
Active weather continues Sunday into Sunday night with strong west
winds -mainly on the Keweenaw- being the primary hazard. Quieter
weather returns on Monday and lasts into Tuesday, but strong
southerly winds return Tuesday night. Southerly winds continue
Wednesday and Wednesday night while transporting another very warm
and moist air mass into our area. Rain chances return across the
west within the WAA regime and again areawide with a cold front
passage on Thursday/Thursday night. Ensembles indicate below normal
temperatures and lake effect snow chances return behind the cold
front and could stick around for a while.
A shortwave lifts east-northeast across the area Sunday morning and
there could be some light rain across the west. Precip chances are
highest along and ahead of the cold front with strong winds
developing quickly over Lake Superior behind the cold front. Post-
frontal winds begin southwesterly then gradually veer westerly
Sunday night then northwesterly on Monday. Model soundings indicate
deep mixing to around 6kft Sunday evening subsiding to around 3kft
around lunchtime on Monday. Deep mixing and a strong wind field will
make for a windy Sunday night on the Keweenaw where gusts to near or
above 50 mph are likely. Much colder temperatures add lake effect
chances with HREF suggesting lake effect showers developing near and
over the Keweenaw around 00z Monday. Model soundings aren`t
particularly exciting with a dry sub-cloud layer and CAMs are only
spitting out a few hundredths of QPF, but it`s something to monitor.
A blustery Monday morning is expected with wind chills near or below
20F across the western UP. Winds should gradually subside on Monday
as surface ridging tracks east over the area. Surface ridging
overhead Monday night should allow for efficient radiational cooling
wherever clear skies persist. Ridging slides east on Tuesday
allowing for southeasterly surface winds and moderating
temperatures. A low level jet moves into the western UP Tuesday
night resulting in gusty southerly winds near the Lake Superior
shoreline. Gusty southerly winds become more widespread on Wednesday
as the cold front approaches. Wednesday should also feature the
warmest temperatures with ensemble means advertising temperatures
approaching 60F. Temperatures should struggle to cool until the cold
front passes Thursday/Friday. Yoopers should use this warm blast to
make their final winter weather preparations.
Much colder post-frontal air mass (850 Ts to at least -10C) is more
than adequate for development of lake effect showers late next week.
Ensemble means favor NW wind snow belts, but operational 12z
guidance advertises a sustained period of more northerly flow.
We`ve already had a couple sustained north wind events this fall
so it could happen again. P-types could be an issue near the
lakeshores, but higher elevation spots should expect accumulating
snow late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 634 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2022
A strong low will move through the area tonight and lead to rapidly
changing conditions for the wind and clouds. It will start off
IFR/LIFR and then improving conditions move in later this evening.
MVFR conditions will return to IWD and CMX on Sun morning.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 246 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2022
Active weather continues across Lake Superior as a pair of low
pressures track across the region this weekend. The first low
tracks across Lake Superior tonight with gales shifting from
NEerly across the western half of the lake today to SWerly across
the eastern half of the lake tonight. Higher elevation platforms
including Stannard Rock may register a few northeasterly gale
force gusts today, but high-end southerly gales are expected this
evening and overnight along and behind the lows cold front. South
to southwest gales to 45 kts are expected and a few storm force
gusts to 50 kts are possible across the eastern lake along and
immediately behind the cold front passage.
Sometime around midnight, the first low exits northern Lake Superior
resulting in winds veering westerly and gradually weakening to
between 20 and 25 kts overnight. These relatively calm conditions
will be short-lived as the second low pressure sends a cold front
across the region Sunday. Westerly gales look likely by Sunday
afternoon across the western half of the lake. Gales intensify to 40-
50kts across the west half late Sunday afternoon/early evening
before spreading to the east half Sunday night. Winds subside below
20 kts from east to west on Monday.
A quieter stretch of weather is expected by Monday afternoon into
Tuesday, but southeast winds increase late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Low end southerly gales are possible during this time frame.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for MIZ006-007-085.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ012.
High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for MIZ013-014.
Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for MIZ013-014.
Lake Superior...
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for LSZ162-
240>242-263.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for LSZ243-
244-264.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
LSZ245>248-251-265>267.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LSZ249>251.
Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ263-264.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LSZ265.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for LSZ266-267.
Lake Michigan...
Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...07
MARINE...EK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
847 PM PDT Sat Nov 5 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Cool, unsettled weather conditions will prevail into
the middle of the upcoming week with periods of widespread
rainfall. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages and
feel down right blustery at times early in the week followed by
cold overnight temperatures late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:42 PM PDT Saturday...Since earlier this
afternoon the Bay Area and Central Coast have been in the warm
sector of an approaching surface low. As a result, moist warmer
air has been streaming in from the southwest. This low level warm
air advection has led to light rain and/or drizzle across the
region. Rainfall amounts since this morning have varied from a few
hundredths to just under one half inch. Interesting fact is that
since the precip was so low level the radar on Mt Umunhum was
overshooting it.
Current surface analysis shows the surface low has made it south
and the associated cold front is now moving into the Bay Area.
Despite the arrival and juicy airmass in place (PWATs 1.4".)
shower activity hasn`t increase per se, just moved more south.
This light shower activity will persist through early tonight
before tapering off from N to S as the cold front moves southward.
Sunday has been trending drier on the last few model runs and the
00Z runs of the HRRR and NAM are no different. Clouds will
persist on Sunday keeping temperatures in check and below normal.
Highs on Sunday are still projected to be in the 50s and 60s. All
eyes quickly turn to the main event - the next cold front. Timing
still has the front knocking on the North Bay`s doorstep by
Sunday evening and then moving southward Sunday night and early
Monday. This front will have better dynamics and upper level
support leading to more intense rainfall. As the front sweeps
through Sunday evening into early Monday rainfall will increase
rapidly, which would lead to local ponding of water.
The post-frontal regime on Monday will feature: showers,
thunderstorms, small hail, lowering snow levels, and gusty winds.
Simply put, an active weather day. If you`re on Team Snow the
Sierra will a few feet of snow. Locally, accumulating snow will be
possible over the higher peaks of the Santa Lucia. Not bad for
November standards. More details featured below...
Precip totals will be fine tuned overnight after coordination with
neighboring offices and national centers.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 02:11 PM PDT Saturday...
Cloud cover will likely linger through Sunday with the day starting
off mostly dry in wake of the exiting weather system and the next
one on track to impact the region. Temperatures will not be overly
cold tonight/Sunday morning with widespread 40s inland to lower 50s
near the coast. Some of the coldest interior locations may fall into
the upper 30s, yet cloud cover should limit cooling. Daytime
temperatures will struggle to warm out of the upper 50s to lower 60s.
The next round of precipitation enters the North Bay in the mid-to-
late afternoon and continues into Sunday night as yet another
frontal boundary drops southward across the region. While PWAT
values will be lower (~.75") than what`s advecting inland today
(>1.00"), there will be greater mid/upper level support to produce
more widespread rainfall across the region.
Post frontal rain showers and even the potential for isolated
thunderstorms are expected into Monday with the core of the
mid/upper level low just off of the Pacific Northwest coast. The
cold, unstable air mass aloft will allow for some convection to even
produce small hail and brief moderate rainfall. Temperatures will
also trend cooler on Monday with many areas not making it out of the
mid/lower 50s. Onshore winds also look to be breezy on Monday, yet
widespread strong winds are not anticipated at this time.
All attention turns to Monday night into Tuesday morning as the core
of the mid/upper level system drops southward along the northern
California coast before ejecting inland over the Bay Area on
Wednesday. This is when the strongest mid/upper level dynamics will
move over the Bay Area and Central coast and likely to produce the
heaviest rainfall. Latest hi-resolution guidance indicates rainfall
rates have the potential to approach or exceed 0.50" within any
convection that does develop. This too could cause widespread travel
concerns for Tuesday morning`s commute. Given the preceding rainfall
expected through the weekend and on Monday, this would be when we
have the greatest potential for minor urban and/or small stream
flooding concerns. Will closely monitor in the days ahead to access
any hazards and to fine tune the forecast.
Lingering rain showers look possible into Wednesday before drying
begins Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts from Sunday into Wednesday
range from about 0.75" to 1.25" for most urban locations across the
Bay Area and Central Coast. Meanwhile the coastal ranges could pick
up between 1.00" to 3.00". It is also worth noting that snow levels
are forecast to drop to around 3,000 ft in the North Bay and 3,500-
4,000 ft for the remainder of the region by Tuesday. Thus, cannot
rule out some snow showers in the highest peaks. Timing of the
precipitation and cold air advection will be worth watching to see
if we are able to get any snow accumulations.
Conditions dry out by Thursday with temperatures remaining around 5
to 10 deg F below seasonal averages. Overnight/morning lows will
also be cold late week, dropping into the 30s for most interior
areas while lower 40s are likely near the coast. There is the
potential for rain chances to return to the region by Friday, yet
confidence remains low at this time. All this said, folks are urged
to stay up-to-date with the latest forecast information as we remain
in an active weather pattern for the next 5 to 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION...As of 5:30 PM Saturday... For the 00Z TAFs. A mix of
conditions reported from LIFR to VFR as a weak frontal boundary
passes through the area, setting off light scattered showers.
Local radar is only showing faint echoes, as most go undetected
under low cloud bases. Cigs generally reported between 1500-3000
ft AGL around SF Bay, with some lower bases in North Bay and
along the coast. -RA reported at some Bay Area terminals as the
main line of showers is now over the area moving southward.
Light winds prevail out of the southwest. Mixed ceilings will
persist overnight behind the front, with patchy fog possible
through mid morning. Conditions should improve to VFR area-wide by
late morning with a high cloud deck persisting. Another system
moves through the area tomorrow evening/night bringing light to
moderate rainfall and likely IFR/MVFR conditions.
Vicinity of SFO... MVFR conditions prevailing with periods of IFR
possible through tonight and into Sunday morning, as abundant
moisture advects into the region. Tempo light showers also
possible through around 04z as a boundary passes through the area.
May see improvement to VFR conditions by early morning as drier
air filters into the region, but timing is uncertain. High clouds
persist through Sunday, before the arrival of the next wetter
system Sunday evening. Periods of rain and IFR/MVFR conditions
likely Sunday night, along with gusty SW winds.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay... VFR at area terminals as cloud bases remain over
3000 ft AGL, but continue to lower. MVFR/IFR conditions likely
overnight, with local LIFR in fog. Light showers also arrive
around 04z-06z. Expecting improvement to VFR towards mid morning
as cigs rise and scatter, but timing is uncertain. More steady
rain arrives just after the end of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...as of 02:43 PM PDT Saturday...Northwest winds will peak
this evening with locally elevated gusts at the Big Sur coast and
the northern outer waters causing hazardous conditions for small
craft. Winds on Sunday will remain light until a frontal system
comes in late on Sunday, bringing breezy and gusty winds across
the waters. Northwest swell persists throughout the weekend,
before a larger swell arrives late on Sunday, which, combined with
the breezy winds, will result in hazardous seas with wave heights
up to 14 to 16 feet. Winds and seas continue to be dangerous
through midweek.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM/RGass
AVIATION: Lorber
MARINE: Dial
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...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022
Highlights...
- Some increase in fire danger Sunday, northwest parts of the area.
We could see similar fire concerns on Monday.
- Mainly dry from tonight through at least Monday evening.
- Warm Wednesday, highs mostly in the lower and mid 70s.
- Unsettled weather from from Tuesday through Thursday.
Water vapor satellite loop early this afternoon in combination with
recent RAP model initializations showed the center of the system
that brought precipitation to our area recently was near the
IA/IL/WI border. Considerable energy aloft was slamming into the
western US. 12Z upper air plots showed a jet max of 155 knots at
KSLE and 12 hour height falls of 140 meters at 500 mb at KUIL.
Mid level height falls will spread into the Dakotas and MN
tonight. That will help force a front through our area tonight and
early Sunday, shifting the wind to the northwest.
For Sunday, the strongest winds will likely occur to our north
and fire danger seems more of a concern there than in our area,
but we will have to monitor. Temperatures won`t be too far from
normal. RH values drop to around 20 percent, but it looks like
there will be at least some cloud cover around. For now, we will
not issue any headlines, but that may need adjustment by the
overnight shift. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid
50s to lower 60s.
For Monday, winds will start out from the east or northeast, then
veer to southeast and increase during the day. Temperatures should
be similar to Sunday and we could see high to very high fire danger
for parts of the area for Monday afternoon.
Monday night will see an increase in atmospheric moisture, but it
doesn`t look like enough forcing to generate much for precipitation
until late Monday or or during the day Tuesday. There should be
enough elevated instability for a few thunderstorms, but rain
amounts look to be spotty and probably mostly under a tenth of an
inch.
There is pretty good model agreement with the 500 mb pattern through
Tuesday night. By 12Z Wednesday there should be a fairly stout mid
level trough back over the far western US from WA and OR down to
NV and CA. There is considerable model spread as that system lifts
out across the Plains. Frontal timing will have a big impact on
temperatures and potential precipitation type. We should have
some instability again for Wednesday into Wednesday evening, so
will include mention for thunderstorms. Rain should mix with an
possibly change to snow Wednesday night through Thursday. The most
recent NBM output suggests the high temperature for Omaha Thursday
could be anywhere from 36 to 68. For now we will trend toward the
colder end of that, with lower 40s. The highest chances for a
significant winter event for Wednesday night into Thursday are
north of Nebraska, but we will of course closely monitor that over
the next several days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022
VFR conditions expected through the period. LLWS threat will
increase by early evening at KLNK...then late evening at KOMA and
KOFK and continue through the overnight hours as surface winds
make a gradual shift from southerly to northwest.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Miller
AVIATION...DEE