Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/06/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
812 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm conditions will continue overnight into Sunday. An approaching front will cause clouds and spotty showers, but much of the time will be dry. The weakening front will cross the region Sunday night into Monday, followed by dry high pressure taking back over through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 810 PM Update... Details were touched up to tease out the ebb-and-flow of individual waves of light showers later tonight through Sunday. It will be dry most of the time, yet most places will also end up with at least a little rain. Also, temperatures tonight were touched up a bit more based on latest guidance. They were already warm, but confidence is even higher now that we will be at record warm minimums overnight; lows ridiculously 8-16 degrees above climatological HIGHS. See climate section for more details, including that Syracuse easily broke their daily record today by hitting 77 degrees. Previous discussion... We issued a wind advisory from Yates County northeast to Onondaga County for tonight (00z-08z). The 12z NAM shows upper level low embedded within a larger scale trough over the western 1/2 of the country over IA moving northeast tonight reaching James Bay Canada by 12z Sunday. This feature will push a cold front and associated trough into the eastern Great Lakes. With the strong persistent vertically stacked upper level anticyclone remaining stationary off the northeast coast, this will lead to an increased pressure gradient across NY and PA tonight. Despite the increased pressure gradient this is a tricky wind forecast since we are looking at southerly winds and cooler air stuck down near the surface layer. This tends to slow down higher wind gusts from mixing down and hence generally precludes reaching impactful winds at the surface despite strong pressure gradients. So we look at low-level lapse rates and how far down the higher winds get. Based on the 12z NAM, places like PEO and SYR see a nearly dry adiabatic lapse rate up to 1900 feet AGL where model winds are running 45 to 50 knots. 40 knots sustained winds reach down to 1000 feet AGL around 4-8z tonight. The soundings from the 12z NAM is similar at SYR but 1 or 2 knots lighter. Also both locations downslope off the higher mountains from the southwest as well. Local study on south winds using stability and wind speeds combined strongly suggests advisory winds at PEO and SYR from the NAM 12z run. The latest HRRR is a tad stronger. The 12z GFS also looks a tad stronger than the NAM as well. As for POPs, we are seeing patchy drizzle and light rain showers from Bradford County PA northeast to Otsego, Chenango and Delaware Counties in NY and in much of northeast PA/Sullivan County NY. These areas are seeing enough low-level moisture upsloping on southerly winds which is leading to the very light precipitation. We will continue POPs for drizzle/light rain showers until showers from approaching upper level low and front that will reach the eastern Lakes by 12z Sunday. For Sunday, front weakens and nearly stalls over our area as the strongest upper level support heads off far to our northwest. Hence there will be scattered showers around most of Sunday. For Sunday night, larger upper level trough slides north of the Great lakes into eastern Quebec. This feature will force another low-level high pressure system into the Great Lakes by Monday. This will be the impetus to strengthen the stalled front over our area pushing it to northern NY southwest to northeast PA by 12z Monday. Hence our area will see more showers Sunday night which taper off late Sunday night/Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Another strong high pressure system will build into the area from the west, which will dominate the weather pattern through the period. Temps on Monday are still expected to be warm behind the cold front as most of the colder air will skirt north of the region during the day. Highs will reach the upper 50s to mid 60s across most of the region, with upper 60s across NEPA. Monday night, clear skies and drier air will allow temps to fall into the mid to upper 30s. A reinforcing shot of cooler air from NW flow out of Canada will keep temperatures cooler on Tuesday, with highs only reaching the mid 40s to low 50s across the region. Clear skies are expected to continue through Tuesday and into the night. This, combined with the center of the high directly overhead and very light winds will allow some pretty efficient radiational cooling, dropping overnight lows down to the mid to upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will remain the weather master into Friday, continuing the warm weather pattern. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60 across the area. The next weather maker is expected to come from a trough moving into the area from the west on Friday, combined with low pressure system off the GA/FL coast. Guidance is still a little murky on how the northern trough will interact with the southern low. Currently, a surface low generated by the northern trough could bring rain showers to all of the CWA, or develop farther east and skirt NEPA and the eastern CWA with rain. With these setups, the southern low gets pulled out to sea and misses our area completely. If we can get any tilting of the trough as it migrates eastward, it could pull the southern low farther west and possibly impact the region. Right now, the uncertainty is too great to give any particular solution more credence than another so NBM guidance was used with a slight reduction in PoPs on Friday. On thing that is pretty certain is that the cold front that will push through the region sometime Friday or Saturday will end the stretch of very warm weather we have had, bringing temperatures back down to normal values. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main concern overnight is a strong southerly low level jet that has developed ahead of an approaching front. Confidence has increased enough for low level wind shear to be met at all terminals and thus it has been expanded to all TAFs. As the front approaches late tonight-early Sunday, moistening conditions will eventually cause MVFR ceilings and spotty showers. The front will slow down and then stall Sunday, which will allow ceiling restrictions to persist much of the day. KBGM-KAVP and probably briefly KRME will likely slip into fuel alternate required levels. With the stalling front, winds will be little changed in direction out of the south or south- southwest, though low level wind shear will go away. Outlook... Sunday night...Occasional restrictions and spotty showers as a front slowly finishes pushing through. Monday through Thursday...Dry high pressure builds back in and takes charge with VFR conditions. && .CLIMATE... Syracuse hit 77 degrees today 11/5, easily breaking its daily record high of 73 that was set in 2015. By midnight tonight, the coldest temperatures in the 24 hour period may be within a degree or two on either side of the record warm minimum temperatures. Syracuse 57 (1948) Binghamton 56 (2015) Scranton 61 (1938) On the calendar day 11/6 the warmest minimum temperature values are forecast to be set at all three climate sites. Syracuse forecast: 61, current record 55 (1912) Binghamton forecast: 61 current record 53 (2015) Scranton forecast: 63 current record 60 (1938) However, high temperatures are forecast near to a few degrees shy of record values on 11/6 for Syracuse-Binghamton, and several degrees short at Scranton. Syracuse forecast: 74, current record 75 (1948) Binghamton forecast: 68, current record 70 (2005) Scranton forecast: 71, current record 77 (2015) && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for NYZ015>018. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...MDP CLIMATE...MDP/MWG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
310 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 CWA is situated in subsident branch of 145kt 250mb jet streak nosing into west/central WY this afternoon. GOES-17 VIS imagery showed numerous mountain waves (rotor clouds) over south-central and southeast WY. Many of the waves were breaking allowing 60 to 80kt winds aloft to descend to the surface. Since early this morning, winds were frequently gusting between 65 and 85 MPH. The highest gust occurred 12mi SSE of Horse Creek with 90 MPH! Cheyenne/s peak gust was 78 MPH just before 3 PM. The 850mb CAG-CPR & CAG-BRX gradients peaked between 105 and 120 mtrs just before midday, and will slowly decrease through the afternoon and evening. High Wind Warnings for areas east of I-25 will continue until 6 PM, much of south- central and southeast WY wind- prone areas until 9 PM, and Arlington, Bordeaux and I-80 Summit until 1 AM. Westerly winds will slowly subside this evening as a frontal system moves through the CWA. The HRRR has been consistently depicting a narrow intense band of snow showers forming over northern Carbon County shortly after 00Z and spreading east and south along the I-80 corridor to near Cheyenne by 04Z. Increased PoPs along and south of this feature, including the Snowy/Sierra Madre ranges where accumulations exceed 6 inches above 9000 feet. Current Winter Weather Advisories for snow and blowing snow remain valid through 6 AM Sunday. Strong westerly flow aloft will persist Sunday, becoming southwesterly Sunday night through Monday night as the next significant upper level trough moves ashore into the Pacific Coast states. Embedded shortwaves within the westerly flow will produce scattered snow showers west of the Laramie Range Sunday, tapering off Sunday night as the energy shifts to the northeast. Lingering cold air advection Sunday will keep below normal temperatures with highs in the 30s and 40s. Temperatures moderate to seasonal normals Monday with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s. It will continue breezy to windy Sunday and Monday due to the stronger flow aloft. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 A fairly active weather pattern continues into the long term period. Warm temperatures and strong SW winds Tuesday/Wednesday will transition to well-below normal temperatures and possible precipitation Wednesday into Thursday. The synoptic pattern on Tuesday will look a lot like it did Tuesday of last week, with a strong, deep trough digging southeastward into the West Coast, and an amplifying ridge located downstream over the southern plains and southeast US. The trough digging and sliding eastward will increase southwesterly flow aloft on Tuesday, advecting in some rather warm air. 700-mb temperatures could climb to +3 to +7C Tuesday, with the warmest values further south and east. This would support well above average temperatures for much of the area, with mid to upper 50s west of the Laramie range, and 60s to even some 70s east of the Laramie range. The GFS shows 700-mb winds of over 50-knots across western Carbon county, so we could also be looking at near high winds with SSW to SW flow. Winds don`t look to strong further east though, so should be a very nice day for those areas. The potential for strong SSW to SW winds will continue into Wednesday, as models have been trending slightly slower with the arrival of the trough and transition to more westerly flow aloft. The slower trough also coincides with a potentially slower progression of another surface high sliding down the lee of the Rockies. Much colder air will be moving in behind this front, and its precise timing will have a huge impact on Wednesday`s high temperatures. Trended temperatures up slightly along the Cheyenne ridge, where we may be able to get some warming before the front plows through. Northern areas will probably be very chilly with the front pushing through before warming can get going. However, considering this is Day 5, precise frontal passage timing is highly uncertain. The main takeaway is that there is an enormous spread in forecast high temperatures for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation is also fairly uncertain. There is medium to high confidence in at least light precipitation falling for most areas west of the Laramie range, but confidence is lower to the east. In addition to the slower trend in the models` treatment of the upper level trough, they have been also trending slightly further south and east, leading to lee cyclogenesis over Colorado instead of SE Wyoming. This could allow a quick hit of snow on the backside of the low pressure system on Wednesday night. A slight trend back to the north would put much of our area east of the Laramie range in dry downslope flow, so confidence is low. About half of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members are showing QPF reaching as far south as KCYS at this time, but amounts remain fairly low even on the wettest scenario. Depending on the exact track of the low, we also will have to watch out for strong westerly winds in the wind prone areas with this system on Thursday and possibly into Friday. Temperatures will be well-below average behind this system, with highs struggling to get to freezing on Thursday. Some moderation looks likely by Saturday, but remaining on the chilly side. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Widespread high winds are now impacting much of the area. Wind gusts as high as 50 to 55 knots remain possible for SE WY terminals and KBFF through the mid afternoon hours. Gusts could reach 35 to 45 knots at other NE terminals. If winds briefly drop at the surface, as occurred at KCYS in the last hour, significant LLWS will be present with winds howling just above the surface. Expect significant mountain wave activity and turbulence through much of the atmosphere. A frontal boundary will push through this evening, and could bring some briefly intense snow squall activity to KRWL and KLAR, with rain/snow showers possible near other terminals also. Expect a wind shift to the NW remaining quite gusty when the boundary passes through. The timing is still a little uncertain, but generally thinking around 02z-04z for KRWL and 03z-05z for KLAR. VIS as low as 1/4 SM is possible, but intense snowfall is not expected to be long- lived. CIGs will drop at other terminals when the boundary passes through, so could see brief MVFR conditions. Improving aviation conditions are expected towards Sunday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Strong west to southwest winds will continue this afternoon and evening, especially in wind-prone areas. A cold front will progress east across the area this evening, producing scattered to numerous rain and snow showers. Periods of moderate snow will fall over the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges tonight. Precipitation will continue Sunday, ending Sunday night. Lowest relative humidities will range from 25 to 35 percent east of the Laramie Range Sunday, increasing to 35 to 45 percent Monday. It will remain breezy to windy Sunday and Monday. Warmer temperatures Tuesday will be replaced by colder temperatures and chances for snow Wednesday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ101-107-108- 118-119. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ104-105-109- 113-115-117. High Wind Warning until 1 AM MDT Sunday for WYZ106-110-116. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Sunday for WYZ112-114. NE...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ019-020-054. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAJ LONG TERM...MN AVIATION...MN FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
810 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 810 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Current surface observations and radar imagery show the cold front across far southwestern WY making steady progress south nearing the UT/CO border. A couple of hours ago, there was some thundersnow near Rock Springs, so the instability is there as expected. KGJX radar is picking up on some light/moderate precipitation from near Greystone to just north of Hayden, but nothing has been reported at the surface that we can tell, and if it is precipitating it is likely rain given the pre-frontal temps in the lower 40s. However, a second line of showers is showing up over the WY/CO border, and that is likely the frontal band and colder air that short term high resolution models have moving south over northwest CO between 0830 and 1130 pm this evening before stalling out north of the Tavaputs and near the Flat Tops. The forecast is in good shape with the expected period of moderate to locally heavy snow under this band through the overnight hours. The evening update only made some minor tweaks to an earlier timing of the higher chances of precipitation moving south. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 318 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Moisture from a strong Atmospheric River continues to stream across the north with plenty of lift as a 170+ kt jet lays across Idaho and Wyoming just north of the CWA. Precipitation earlier today (this morning) was very shallow with not much return on radar but light snow was falling in the northern mountains and down to the Elks with reports of freezing drizzle at Vail. Roads appeared slick with some glazing so issued a Winter Weather Advisory earlier for this activity for COZ010 that expired at 2 pm MDT as temperatures have warmed above freezing. When looking at some BUFKIT soundings around the area, the profile indicated the potential for freezing drizzle. The model integrated water vapor transport (IWT) for this AR event is indicating standard deviations of 2 to 4 above climo across western Colorado and 4 to 6 above climo further west across the Great Basin (Nevada into Utah). Some clearing has occurred this afternoon across portions of the area, which has resulted in this warmup and deep mixing, with some breezy conditions across northwest Colorado, in closer proximity to the upper level jet. The models have been somewhat consistent the last several runs with showing a cold front dropping southward this evening into Sunday morning, and potential banding setting up across northwest Colorado. Models are also indicating a strong band of frontogenesis laying across northwest Colorado as well between the 00Z (6 pm MDT) this evening through 12Z (5 am MST...don`t forget the time change tonight) Sunday morning. 850 to 700 mb streamlines also indicate strong convergence boundary forming somewhere near the Highway 40 corridor from Craig to Steamboat Springs. Also, lending to higher confidence in this band of heavy snow forming is the experimental Snowband Probability Tracker (SPT) that is showing higher probability in snowbands forming over the Park Range and Flattops as well as Upper Yampa River valley from about Craig to Steamboat Springs. The latest CAM guidance also shows this band forming across the Elkheads by around 00Z/6 pm MDT and tracking southward across Highway 40 and the Park Range around 03Z/9 pm MDT and lingering somewhere over the Flattops through about 12Z/5 am MST before lifting back northward and weakening. Expecting 4 to 8 inches of snow for Steamboat Springs and the Upper Yampa River Valley with 2 to 6 inches for the lower Yampa River Valley, including Craig and Hayden in this 12 hour period. Therefore, added COZ002 and COZ005 to the Winter Weather Advisory from 00Z/6 pm MDT today through 18Z/11 am MST Sunday. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in place through 00Z/5 pm MST Sunday for the northern mountains, including the Elkheads and Park Range (COZ004) as well as Flattops (COZ013). Snow is possible for the Gore and Elk Mountains as well as Grand Mesa this evening into Sunday, favoring Vail Pass, but amounts at this time look to stay below advisory criteria as the bulk of the forcing remains north of I-70. Later shifts will need to keep a close eye on the snowfall rates and location of where the band sets up to see if any expansion or upgrades of the winter weather headlines are warranted. By Sunday afternoon, the polar jet will lift back northward as a deeper colder system moves into the Pacific Northwest, causing an amplification of the polar jet with a deep trough carving over the western states with an amplified ridge of high pressure across the Four Corners into the northern Rockies. Southwest flow increases as a result of this tightened gradient Sunday afternoon with breezy conditions and warming temperatures under clearing skies as deep mixing looks to occur. While highs on Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees milder across central and southern areas compared to today, the north will still remain cooler due to the passage of the aforementioned cold front and dip of the polar jet. The north looks to thaw out early next week as the polar jet lifts further north and strong WAA takes place. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 318 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 On Monday, a strong low pressure will be rotating just off the Pacific Northwest coast, while a ridge amplifies over the central US and southern Canada. This will set the stage for modest southwest flow across our forecast area. That means temperatures above normal by about 5 to 10 degrees. Also, the winds will pick up initially across the western half of the area on Monday and then the entire area by Tuesday. Where mixing is favorable as well as the higher terrain wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common. A few locations may gust above 40 mph, which may expand as we get closer to the event. The low pressure will make landfall in northern California late Tuesday with a plume of moisture streaming ahead of that system. Models show precipitation will arrive in northeast Utah and northwest Colorado Tuesday afternoon and evening. The low is expected to lift over the northern Great Basin and eventually pass just to our north on Wednesday. So the precipitation should spread from west to east Tuesday night becoming widespread on Wednesday. As previously mentioned snow levels will initially be relatively high, 7,500 to 8,500 feet, and drop through out the day Wednesday as the system sweeps through. This low pressure will pass through rather quickly so it looks like one main round of precipitation before dry air filters in behind the system. Modest frontogenesis looks to be the main forcing. Snow levels may reach the higher valleys early Wednesday as rates increase, and the desert valleys by the evening. Some of the desert valleys could see snow accumulation, but moisture and forcing will be decreasing once the temp profile supports snow. Another factor that may limit snow in the lower valleys is the time of day as a bulk of the precip occurs during peak insolation. These details could change as we get closure in time. Most of the mountain ranges will receive snow although the southern facing slopes may be favored overall. By Wednesday night the low pressure lifts out over the plains leaving us in westerly flow. Snow showers look to gradually decrease intensity overnight with the central and southern mountains becoming favored. The higher valleys also see a down tick as the large-scale lift exits the region. Orographic snow showers may linger in the northern mountains during the day Thursday. Overall it appears like an advisory event for the higher terrain given the quick speed of the system. Dry westerly flow aloft takes over Friday into next weekend with temperatures remaining below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 538 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 The main forecast challenge this period is the cold front sagging south over northern CO tonight with the potential for moderate to heavy snow bands affecting KHDN overnight into Sunday morning. Used a blend of the NAM and HRRR for timing of lower ceilings/vsby coming in after 03Z. The snow will expand southward close to the I-70 corridor from KRIL to KEGE, so included mention of VCSH or -SHSN for those airports along with attendant lower ceilings and vsby. The other concern is the non-convective low level wind shear for KTEX, KEGE, KASE and KGUC to account for the strong westerly winds above the low level inversion and light valley surface winds. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Sunday for COZ002-005. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Sunday for COZ004-013. UT...None. && $$ UPDATE...BM SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...KJS AVIATION...BM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1000 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022 A few sites continue to see wind gusts near advisory criteria (mainly near the lakeshore) but the diminishing trend will continue overnight and the wind advisory was allowed to expire earlier. Rain has ended but we have a batch of stratus/stratocu associated with the cold advection affecting mainly wrn and nrn sections of the area at this time. Those clouds lift out later tonight, so all areas eventually turning clear to partly cloudy with lows in the 40s. Will be extending the Gale Warning into Sunday north of Whitehall as winds increase again after a brief overnight lull below gales. This may need to be expanded farther south in later updates. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 339 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022 - High Winds and Heavy Rain Showers Early then clearing I see no reason to change any of our headlines. Once the narrow frontal rain band moves across the area we will see around 6 hours of winds frequently gusting to near 50 mph. The latest run of the HRRR and RAP model show this nicely. Any gusts above 59 mph would likely occur with narrow frontal rainband moving across our CWA between 330 pm and 5:30 pm. All areas will see this, not lasting more than 15 minutes at any one location. Expect wind gusts between 35 mph and 55 mph and brief heavy rainfall as it crosses your area in Southwest Michigan. It is curious that the low level jet weakens significantly (75 knots to 60 knots) between 3 pm and 6 pm as the core of highest wind speeds moves nearly due north toward Lake Superior by late afternoon. Another low level jet forms and strengthens from western Lake Erie northward to Lake Huron. The developing low level jet will keep our line of convection going as it heads across the C WA. Once the front has come through air temperatures should fall quickly into the lower 50s and winds will remain gusty into late evening. It is worth noting the area of coldest air moves through our forecast area around midnight. We then start to bring in warmer air at mid levels. That will clear the clouds and lower wind speeds during the early morning hours of Sunday. - A second cold front cross the area Sunday afternoon We will not see the clearing last all that long as a second cold front comes through the area later in the day Sunday. There is not enough mid level moisture for shower as this front comes through through. Once that front comes through skies will clear once again but this time should stay clear for several days. This does bring in cooler air. However all this does is bring our temperatures closer to normal but yet not colder than normal. - Warmer than normal with some sunshine most of this week Most of this coming week should be near to above normal in temperature and feature a fair amount of daily sunshine. We can thank our next Pacific storm coming on shore between British Columbia and the state of Oregon during the day Sunday. The jet segment rotating around it breaks up into two parts. The lead wave tracks east and causes our cool down the Monday and Tuesday. The second segement of the polar jet digs nearly due south off shore of our CONUS West Coast. That keeps the system just off shore too, well at least into midweek. During that time a large upper ridge develops from the Gulf States to the Great Lakes. The polar jet will then be located near Hudson Bay in the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame. That will mean the cooler temperatures (still near to slightly warmer than normal) are the result of that. - Cold air returns with some lake effect snow shower by weekend The next upstream Pacific system forces that system stalled off the west coast to finally move inland. It reaches our area late in the coming week. Once it gets here we will likely have rain showers on the warm side of the system in the Friday/Saturday time frame. Then the coldest air of the season so far comes in with 850 temperatures near -10c. That will cause lake effect snow showers by Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 750 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Winds diminishing this evening with peak gusts falling below 30 kts by Midnight. Sustained winds likely even dropping off to around 10 kts overnight (with the exception of Muskegon). On Sunday the winds will increase and become gusty again by 15Z although not nearly as strong as on Saturday. Peak gusts should be more like 25-30 kts. VFR is expected for the most part over the next 24 hours, although some MVFR cigs are expected at MKG and GRR through about Midnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022 We plan to keep our Storm Warning until 8 pm then a gale warning will run until 1 am then that will be followed by a SCA. The small craft advisory will continue into early Monday morning. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LMZ844>847. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ844>847. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ848-849. && $$ UPDATE...Meade DISCUSSION...WDM AVIATION...Meade MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1032 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Tonight`s main forecast issue remains fog potential with everything else behaving as expected this evening. Latest sfc obs indicate temp/dewpoint spreads remaining a bit elevated, while winds are more light/variable than calm at the moment. However dewpoints jumped across the far sern zones once the front lifted back nwd, thus those spreads should close up overnight as the front continues its inland trek. Low ceilings seem quite the certainly behind the frontal passage given current conditions...if winds can totally lie down, fog will become more of an issue. Latest fog guidance outside of the RAP isn`t very bullish on development overnight...suspect these are underplaying the quick re-moistening as the boundary pushes through. For now, will maintain the inherited patchy fog wording, but will certainly be keeping an eye on conditions as we approach the overnight hours. Elsewhere, inherited grids/zones look in good shape as is. No update planned. 25 && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 A few clouds linger over the Atchafalaya Basin at this hour, the remnants of the cold front now located in southeast Louisiana. Conditions outside are beautiful, albeit a bit damp from rains overnight. With a fairly light north wind, and temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s... you can`t beat this on a Saturday. Unfortunately it will only last today and into this evening. The cold front will begin losing its easterly motion tonight as its upper level forcing has lifted out, and it`s blocked by surface high pressure over the ern Gulf. The surface high is then forecast to spread further wwd tonight, with our winds turning east and then southeast. The resulting flow will drag the front nwd back into central Louisiana overnight, denoted by a thick low level cloud deck expected to spread nwd with it. Widespread areas of patchy fog (some dense) are likely to form after midnight as the moist airmass slides northward. As for now no Dense Fog Advisory has been issued, but one may be needed later tonight. Tomorrow, the high expands further into the east and northeast Gulf, driving the warm airmass into northern Louisiana. A few showers and rumbles of thunder are possible during the afternoon within the warm sector. Warmer, above average temperatures then return in the afternoon tomorrow and Monday with plenty of Gulf moisture to make it feel like late September all over again. 11 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 A mid to upper level ridge of high pressure from Texas to the Carolinas will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday. No significant moisture and lift expected to generate any precipitation through this period. Temperatures will average around 10 degrees above normal with lows in the lower to mid 60s and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Thursday through Saturday. The upper level ridge expected to shift east with a large mid to upper level trough digging across the Central U.S. on Thursday, and becoming the predominate feature across the Central and Eastern U.S by Friday and Saturday. This will bring a strong cold front through the region by Friday, with strong northerly winds and much colder temperatures behind it Friday night and Saturday. Guidance continues to be rather dry across our region, even during the frontal passage with chances of precipitation less than 20% Friday. Most guidance keeps all of the moisture and lift across the Eastern Gulf, Florida, and the Bahamas associated with the low/disturbance. As mentioned, much colder temperatures expected by Friday night and Saturday, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. 08/DML && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 A messy pattern will unfold overnight, especially in regards to CIGS/VIS, as a stalled front to our east/southeast begins to lift back across the region. Beginning around 03-04Z along the coast ceilings will begin to fall to MVFR, followed by a reduction to IFR and eventually LIFR through the next few hours. This will occur first at the Acadiana terminals, with clouds spread north/northwestward overnight to the remaining terminals. Along with falling ceilings, visibility will begin to plummet as well as fog develops, likely beginning around the midnight hour. Guidance is most confident at LCH, but some fog is possible at all terminals through the early morning hours. Tomorrow post sunrise, the front will continue to gradually lift out of the region, which will allow conditions to improve through the late morning. Fog will burn off and ceilings will slowly return to VFR by mid day. VFR conditions are expected areawide through tomorrow afternoon. 17 && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Winds and seas will continue to relax this evening with the broadening pressure gradient and the departure of the front from coastal waters. High pressure centered over FL/GA is forecast to expand into the eastern Gulf tonight and tomorrow, resulting in easterly then southeasterly flow. Scattered showers and very isolated thunderstorms are possible tomorrow as southerly winds lift a warm front back onshore tomorrow. Onshore flow, moderate at times, will then prevail through the start of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 55 82 66 86 / 0 20 10 10 LCH 59 81 66 82 / 10 20 0 0 LFT 64 84 67 85 / 0 20 0 0 BPT 59 81 67 82 / 0 20 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
635 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 333 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2022 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show that the well-defined shortwave that was over eastern NM/nw TX 24hrs ago has lifted ne into southern WI, and it is now taking on a negative tilt. At sfc, associated deepening 989mb sfc low is centered in central WI. Widespread shra associated with this system have been lifting across the fcst area today, and the pcpn/clouds have held temps down to the upper 30s/lwr 40s F across much of the fcst area. However, with warm front extending ne from the low making some progress to the nw, temps have risen into the low/mid 50s F from Menominee to Escanaba to Newberry. Shra will continue to spread across the area over the next several hrs as the sfc low tracks nne, crossing western Upper MI and central Lake Superior late this aftn/evening. Those shra will wind down and end most locations by late evening as the low quickly exits the area. Steadier pcpn will linger longest over western Upper MI as deformation pcpn shield lifts across that area. Otherwise, main focus of attention will shift to strong s to sw winds that will surge across roughly the e half of the fcst area this evening as the low passes. Current 4mb/3hr pres rise max over se IA/ne MO/IL will increase to 8mb/3hr as it lifts across central Upper MI/central Lake Superior this evening. The resulting isallobaric wind component will be largely aligned with the gradient wind to give a good boost to winds for a time. Fcst soundings suggest some potential to tap 50- 60kt winds close to Lake MI. Given the isallobaric boost, plan to upgrade Delta/Schoolcraft counties to high wind warning for wind gusts to 60 mph, though for Delta County the main area of concern will be on the Garden Peninsula and along the shore of Big Bay de Noc. For both counties, warning criteria gusts (at least 58mph) should only last 1 to 2hrs. Will maintain wind advy for Alger/Luce and add Menominee County. Power outages are expected along with some tree damage, especially for Delta/Schoolcraft counties. Winds will not be as strong to the west of the advy/warning areas. Across the entire area, winds will diminish overnight. With the strong s to sw winds building waves up to 15-17ft over the Lake MI shoreline areas of Schoolcraft County and along the Garden Peninsula of Delta County this evening, expect beach erosion and some lakeshore flooding. Thus, the Lakeshore Flood Warning still looks on target with no major changes to ongoing headlines. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 246 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2022 Active weather continues Sunday into Sunday night with strong west winds -mainly on the Keweenaw- being the primary hazard. Quieter weather returns on Monday and lasts into Tuesday, but strong southerly winds return Tuesday night. Southerly winds continue Wednesday and Wednesday night while transporting another very warm and moist air mass into our area. Rain chances return across the west within the WAA regime and again areawide with a cold front passage on Thursday/Thursday night. Ensembles indicate below normal temperatures and lake effect snow chances return behind the cold front and could stick around for a while. A shortwave lifts east-northeast across the area Sunday morning and there could be some light rain across the west. Precip chances are highest along and ahead of the cold front with strong winds developing quickly over Lake Superior behind the cold front. Post- frontal winds begin southwesterly then gradually veer westerly Sunday night then northwesterly on Monday. Model soundings indicate deep mixing to around 6kft Sunday evening subsiding to around 3kft around lunchtime on Monday. Deep mixing and a strong wind field will make for a windy Sunday night on the Keweenaw where gusts to near or above 50 mph are likely. Much colder temperatures add lake effect chances with HREF suggesting lake effect showers developing near and over the Keweenaw around 00z Monday. Model soundings aren`t particularly exciting with a dry sub-cloud layer and CAMs are only spitting out a few hundredths of QPF, but it`s something to monitor. A blustery Monday morning is expected with wind chills near or below 20F across the western UP. Winds should gradually subside on Monday as surface ridging tracks east over the area. Surface ridging overhead Monday night should allow for efficient radiational cooling wherever clear skies persist. Ridging slides east on Tuesday allowing for southeasterly surface winds and moderating temperatures. A low level jet moves into the western UP Tuesday night resulting in gusty southerly winds near the Lake Superior shoreline. Gusty southerly winds become more widespread on Wednesday as the cold front approaches. Wednesday should also feature the warmest temperatures with ensemble means advertising temperatures approaching 60F. Temperatures should struggle to cool until the cold front passes Thursday/Friday. Yoopers should use this warm blast to make their final winter weather preparations. Much colder post-frontal air mass (850 Ts to at least -10C) is more than adequate for development of lake effect showers late next week. Ensemble means favor NW wind snow belts, but operational 12z guidance advertises a sustained period of more northerly flow. We`ve already had a couple sustained north wind events this fall so it could happen again. P-types could be an issue near the lakeshores, but higher elevation spots should expect accumulating snow late next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 634 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2022 A strong low will move through the area tonight and lead to rapidly changing conditions for the wind and clouds. It will start off IFR/LIFR and then improving conditions move in later this evening. MVFR conditions will return to IWD and CMX on Sun morning. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 246 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2022 Active weather continues across Lake Superior as a pair of low pressures track across the region this weekend. The first low tracks across Lake Superior tonight with gales shifting from NEerly across the western half of the lake today to SWerly across the eastern half of the lake tonight. Higher elevation platforms including Stannard Rock may register a few northeasterly gale force gusts today, but high-end southerly gales are expected this evening and overnight along and behind the lows cold front. South to southwest gales to 45 kts are expected and a few storm force gusts to 50 kts are possible across the eastern lake along and immediately behind the cold front passage. Sometime around midnight, the first low exits northern Lake Superior resulting in winds veering westerly and gradually weakening to between 20 and 25 kts overnight. These relatively calm conditions will be short-lived as the second low pressure sends a cold front across the region Sunday. Westerly gales look likely by Sunday afternoon across the western half of the lake. Gales intensify to 40- 50kts across the west half late Sunday afternoon/early evening before spreading to the east half Sunday night. Winds subside below 20 kts from east to west on Monday. A quieter stretch of weather is expected by Monday afternoon into Tuesday, but southeast winds increase late Tuesday into Wednesday. Low end southerly gales are possible during this time frame. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for MIZ006-007-085. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ012. High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for MIZ013-014. Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for MIZ013-014. Lake Superior... Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for LSZ162- 240>242-263. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for LSZ243- 244-264. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for LSZ245>248-251-265>267. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LSZ249>251. Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ263-264. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LSZ265. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for LSZ266-267. Lake Michigan... Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...EK AVIATION...07 MARINE...EK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
847 PM PDT Sat Nov 5 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Cool, unsettled weather conditions will prevail into the middle of the upcoming week with periods of widespread rainfall. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages and feel down right blustery at times early in the week followed by cold overnight temperatures late week. && of 08:42 PM PDT Saturday...Since earlier this afternoon the Bay Area and Central Coast have been in the warm sector of an approaching surface low. As a result, moist warmer air has been streaming in from the southwest. This low level warm air advection has led to light rain and/or drizzle across the region. Rainfall amounts since this morning have varied from a few hundredths to just under one half inch. Interesting fact is that since the precip was so low level the radar on Mt Umunhum was overshooting it. Current surface analysis shows the surface low has made it south and the associated cold front is now moving into the Bay Area. Despite the arrival and juicy airmass in place (PWATs 1.4".) shower activity hasn`t increase per se, just moved more south. This light shower activity will persist through early tonight before tapering off from N to S as the cold front moves southward. Sunday has been trending drier on the last few model runs and the 00Z runs of the HRRR and NAM are no different. Clouds will persist on Sunday keeping temperatures in check and below normal. Highs on Sunday are still projected to be in the 50s and 60s. All eyes quickly turn to the main event - the next cold front. Timing still has the front knocking on the North Bay`s doorstep by Sunday evening and then moving southward Sunday night and early Monday. This front will have better dynamics and upper level support leading to more intense rainfall. As the front sweeps through Sunday evening into early Monday rainfall will increase rapidly, which would lead to local ponding of water. The post-frontal regime on Monday will feature: showers, thunderstorms, small hail, lowering snow levels, and gusty winds. Simply put, an active weather day. If you`re on Team Snow the Sierra will a few feet of snow. Locally, accumulating snow will be possible over the higher peaks of the Santa Lucia. Not bad for November standards. More details featured below... Precip totals will be fine tuned overnight after coordination with neighboring offices and national centers. && .PREV of 02:11 PM PDT Saturday... Cloud cover will likely linger through Sunday with the day starting off mostly dry in wake of the exiting weather system and the next one on track to impact the region. Temperatures will not be overly cold tonight/Sunday morning with widespread 40s inland to lower 50s near the coast. Some of the coldest interior locations may fall into the upper 30s, yet cloud cover should limit cooling. Daytime temperatures will struggle to warm out of the upper 50s to lower 60s. The next round of precipitation enters the North Bay in the mid-to- late afternoon and continues into Sunday night as yet another frontal boundary drops southward across the region. While PWAT values will be lower (~.75") than what`s advecting inland today (>1.00"), there will be greater mid/upper level support to produce more widespread rainfall across the region. Post frontal rain showers and even the potential for isolated thunderstorms are expected into Monday with the core of the mid/upper level low just off of the Pacific Northwest coast. The cold, unstable air mass aloft will allow for some convection to even produce small hail and brief moderate rainfall. Temperatures will also trend cooler on Monday with many areas not making it out of the mid/lower 50s. Onshore winds also look to be breezy on Monday, yet widespread strong winds are not anticipated at this time. All attention turns to Monday night into Tuesday morning as the core of the mid/upper level system drops southward along the northern California coast before ejecting inland over the Bay Area on Wednesday. This is when the strongest mid/upper level dynamics will move over the Bay Area and Central coast and likely to produce the heaviest rainfall. Latest hi-resolution guidance indicates rainfall rates have the potential to approach or exceed 0.50" within any convection that does develop. This too could cause widespread travel concerns for Tuesday morning`s commute. Given the preceding rainfall expected through the weekend and on Monday, this would be when we have the greatest potential for minor urban and/or small stream flooding concerns. Will closely monitor in the days ahead to access any hazards and to fine tune the forecast. Lingering rain showers look possible into Wednesday before drying begins Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts from Sunday into Wednesday range from about 0.75" to 1.25" for most urban locations across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Meanwhile the coastal ranges could pick up between 1.00" to 3.00". It is also worth noting that snow levels are forecast to drop to around 3,000 ft in the North Bay and 3,500- 4,000 ft for the remainder of the region by Tuesday. Thus, cannot rule out some snow showers in the highest peaks. Timing of the precipitation and cold air advection will be worth watching to see if we are able to get any snow accumulations. Conditions dry out by Thursday with temperatures remaining around 5 to 10 deg F below seasonal averages. Overnight/morning lows will also be cold late week, dropping into the 30s for most interior areas while lower 40s are likely near the coast. There is the potential for rain chances to return to the region by Friday, yet confidence remains low at this time. All this said, folks are urged to stay up-to-date with the latest forecast information as we remain in an active weather pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .AVIATION...As of 5:30 PM Saturday... For the 00Z TAFs. A mix of conditions reported from LIFR to VFR as a weak frontal boundary passes through the area, setting off light scattered showers. Local radar is only showing faint echoes, as most go undetected under low cloud bases. Cigs generally reported between 1500-3000 ft AGL around SF Bay, with some lower bases in North Bay and along the coast. -RA reported at some Bay Area terminals as the main line of showers is now over the area moving southward. Light winds prevail out of the southwest. Mixed ceilings will persist overnight behind the front, with patchy fog possible through mid morning. Conditions should improve to VFR area-wide by late morning with a high cloud deck persisting. Another system moves through the area tomorrow evening/night bringing light to moderate rainfall and likely IFR/MVFR conditions. Vicinity of SFO... MVFR conditions prevailing with periods of IFR possible through tonight and into Sunday morning, as abundant moisture advects into the region. Tempo light showers also possible through around 04z as a boundary passes through the area. May see improvement to VFR conditions by early morning as drier air filters into the region, but timing is uncertain. High clouds persist through Sunday, before the arrival of the next wetter system Sunday evening. Periods of rain and IFR/MVFR conditions likely Sunday night, along with gusty SW winds. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay... VFR at area terminals as cloud bases remain over 3000 ft AGL, but continue to lower. MVFR/IFR conditions likely overnight, with local LIFR in fog. Light showers also arrive around 04z-06z. Expecting improvement to VFR towards mid morning as cigs rise and scatter, but timing is uncertain. More steady rain arrives just after the end of the TAF period. && of 02:43 PM PDT Saturday...Northwest winds will peak this evening with locally elevated gusts at the Big Sur coast and the northern outer waters causing hazardous conditions for small craft. Winds on Sunday will remain light until a frontal system comes in late on Sunday, bringing breezy and gusty winds across the waters. Northwest swell persists throughout the weekend, before a larger swell arrives late on Sunday, which, combined with the breezy winds, will result in hazardous seas with wave heights up to 14 to 16 feet. Winds and seas continue to be dangerous through midweek. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MM/RGass AVIATION: Lorber MARINE: Dial Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Highlights... - Some increase in fire danger Sunday, northwest parts of the area. We could see similar fire concerns on Monday. - Mainly dry from tonight through at least Monday evening. - Warm Wednesday, highs mostly in the lower and mid 70s. - Unsettled weather from from Tuesday through Thursday. Water vapor satellite loop early this afternoon in combination with recent RAP model initializations showed the center of the system that brought precipitation to our area recently was near the IA/IL/WI border. Considerable energy aloft was slamming into the western US. 12Z upper air plots showed a jet max of 155 knots at KSLE and 12 hour height falls of 140 meters at 500 mb at KUIL. Mid level height falls will spread into the Dakotas and MN tonight. That will help force a front through our area tonight and early Sunday, shifting the wind to the northwest. For Sunday, the strongest winds will likely occur to our north and fire danger seems more of a concern there than in our area, but we will have to monitor. Temperatures won`t be too far from normal. RH values drop to around 20 percent, but it looks like there will be at least some cloud cover around. For now, we will not issue any headlines, but that may need adjustment by the overnight shift. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. For Monday, winds will start out from the east or northeast, then veer to southeast and increase during the day. Temperatures should be similar to Sunday and we could see high to very high fire danger for parts of the area for Monday afternoon. Monday night will see an increase in atmospheric moisture, but it doesn`t look like enough forcing to generate much for precipitation until late Monday or or during the day Tuesday. There should be enough elevated instability for a few thunderstorms, but rain amounts look to be spotty and probably mostly under a tenth of an inch. There is pretty good model agreement with the 500 mb pattern through Tuesday night. By 12Z Wednesday there should be a fairly stout mid level trough back over the far western US from WA and OR down to NV and CA. There is considerable model spread as that system lifts out across the Plains. Frontal timing will have a big impact on temperatures and potential precipitation type. We should have some instability again for Wednesday into Wednesday evening, so will include mention for thunderstorms. Rain should mix with an possibly change to snow Wednesday night through Thursday. The most recent NBM output suggests the high temperature for Omaha Thursday could be anywhere from 36 to 68. For now we will trend toward the colder end of that, with lower 40s. The highest chances for a significant winter event for Wednesday night into Thursday are north of Nebraska, but we will of course closely monitor that over the next several days. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 544 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 VFR conditions expected through the period. LLWS threat will increase by early evening at KLNK...then late evening at KOMA and KOFK and continue through the overnight hours as surface winds make a gradual shift from southerly to northwest. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Miller AVIATION...DEE