Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/05/22

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 .Discussion... Issued at 327 PM CDT FRI NOV 4 2022 Key Messages: - Marginal Risk for Severe Storms This Afternoon in Central Missouri - Light snow far northwest Missouri overnight - Mild Weekend Weather - Active and Warm Next Week 327 PM Update On Severe Thunderstorm Potential: Current radar trends are showing a lot of weak convection covering the warm sector ahead of the strong cold front. The SPC mesoanalysis continues to show MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg, but current convection is likely eating away at it. The strong shear profile discussed previously is still there, and therefore the marginal severe risk will continue for the next few hours. The low-level wind shear could support a brief weak tornado, but with the thermodynamics diminishing, the low tornado threat appears to be even lower. Still would expect hail and wind threat for the next few hours, and it may continue if a strong QLCS develops along the front with the low-level jet. They QPF and hydro conditions discussed previously still valid as of 20z. The next section repeats the 1141am update from today with respect to severe convection, and the section below that will then focus on the snow chances in northwest Missouri and the extended forecast. Previous 1141 AM on Severe Weather: The radar this morning has been active with numerous training thunderstorms on the back-side of the cold front. Most of the storms through the late morning have remained elevated, with bases around 825mb. A few individual cells have developed stronger cores, and have produced small hail. The cold front has kept its strength as anticipated, with a temperature drop around 25 degrees. In the central and southeastern portions of the forecast area, WAA has remained strong, and isentropic ascent has also been strong. While there are some breaks, GOES-16 imagery continues to show developing cloud cover over the ambient warm-sector ahead of the cold front. While the environment remains marginal, severe thunderstorms are still possible this afternoon through evening across the forecast area. The HRRR has a decent handle on the current convection, likely doing okay with the larger scale forcing at play for this event. Through about 19-20z this afternoon, still expecting numerous showers and thunderstorms on the backside of the front as the H5 trough continues to lift. 0-6km bulk shear on the backside of the front will remain above 80 kts. The elevated bases of the storms though will mean most updrafts only realize about 40-50 kts, but this is still plenty to keep them organized. The CAMs seem to have finally caught onto the increase moisture, so the 700-500mb lapse rates on the cold side of the front are not nearly as steep as they were depicted in yesterday`s solutions, which seemed to have a stout EML which just never truly materialized. Still, with the wind shear on the back, will need to continue to monitor these storms for hail. There had been concern about the precipitation dragging higher momentum toward the surface, but severe wind gusts as of 16z had not been realized. It will be difficult for these storms to produce anything much larger than quarter-size hail. The storms on the backside of the front have produced a widespread 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rainfall, with localized band in northeast Kansas between 1.00 to 1.50 inches. At this point, still anticipating a band between 1.00 and 2.00 inches from Emporia, KS through the KC Metro to North Central Missouri. Local amounts to 2.50 inches, while not overly favorable, cannot yet be ruled out. Now on the warm-side of the front, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop. Vorticity advection continues to increase, enhancing the physical lift along with the strong convergence ahead of the cold front. Even with the cloud cover developing with the isentropic upglide, the theta-e advection over the past 12-18 hours has brought MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which should be enough for this time of year to promote updraft development. Overall, convection will likely have a sloppy appearance on radar. There is still at least 40 kts of 0-6km bulk shear in most of the warm sector, with several pockets of 50-60 kts. This should allow a few storms to organize and develop relatively healthy cores. Based on RAP/HRRR soundings, it looks like there should be enough warming at the surface for parcels to initiate close to the surface. In this highly sheared environment, supercells remain possible and will be capable of producing severe hail and damaging wind gusts. The low-level hodographs demonstrate a lot of turning in the lowest 0-500m, with SRH values above 125 m^2/s^2 in RAP soundings, a good portion of this streamwise. In the 0-1km layer, HREF mean is between 175-250 m^2/s^2. In addition, storms moving with the mean wind or Bunker`s Right Storm Motion will experience storm-relative winds between 25-30 kts. This will be able to support steady state updraft for a brief time, and therefore presents a conditional tornado threat with discrete storms in the warm sector. The most favorable timing for this will be 20z-01z for storms on the warm side of the boundary. If a supercell is able to develop a strong meso and produce a tornado, it likely would remain weak and short-lived. While there is a decent of MLCAPE, the overall CAPE profile is very thin. Therefore, even with the stronger storm- relative flows, it may quickly lose its ingest of favorable conditions. The 12z HREF also hints at this, with very little in the way of updraft helicity (UH) tracks. The greater tornado risk remains much further south into the ArkLaTex Region. Looking above the lowest levels, the hodographs do demonstrate a considerable amount of length, and become even longer as the core of the H5 jet moves across the area and the low-level jet ramps up this evening. A few spots in central Missouri also exhibit some veer-back profiles in 3-6 km, which allows for maintaining updraft organization for mean wind moving storms and also for left-moving storms, but left- movers will quickly hit the front if they were to develop. This further would support the potential for hail, and precipitation loading still presets a damaging wind threat. If discrete convection does develop ahead of the front, it will have a narrow window to remain that way. 850mb-300mb flow is still parallel to the boundary, and as the front races eastward, would expect the storms to quickly congeal into QLCS mode. A QLCS mode will still have potential to produce wind gusts around 60 MPH this evening. While 0-3km bulk shear values will top off around 70-75 kts, the orientation of the vector will be parallel to the boundary and likely to any linear mode of convection itself. While there maybe some spots where a line- normal component of 30 kts is achieved, this overall does not look favorable for robust meso vortex generation. Therefore, still not expecting a prolific QLCS tornado threat, if any at all. For the overall severe threat, if the elevated convection produces a strong outflow with a persistent cold pool that races ahead, most of the weak instability will be eaten up by this, and could completely hinder deep convection in the ambient warm-sector, and could drastically weaken any QLCS mode feature into the evening. Despite the kinematic forcing, this is what is making it a marginal environment for most of eastern Kansas and Missouri. If the severe threat with respect to wind, hail, and tornado is not realized, will still need to watch developed and urban areas for flooding, as storms will be training along the front for the rest of the day. We are still expecting a widespread 1.00 to 1.50 inches, with a band of 1.50 to 2.00 inches. Local amounts up to 2.50 inches cannot be ruled out. Most rural areas will be able to handle the rain, and for many counties will actually be quite welcomed. Expect increased flows in some of the rivers and streams, but amounts even up to 2.50 inches of rain are not expected to create any considerable flooding issues this afternoon and evening. Discussion on Overnight Snow and Extended Forecast: As the H5 trough continues to lift into the Upper Mississippi River Valley this evening, it will eventually catch up and become vertically stacked with the surface cyclone. The high moisture content is expected to wrap around to the backside and saturate much of deformation zone, currently favored by CAM solutions to impact the northwestern portions of the forecast area, as well as northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska. With the rapid CAA on the backside of the cold front, this moisture will result in wintry precipitation. The bulk of the QPF associated with this will be northwest of the area, but far northwestern Missouri may see light accumlations of snow. Model soundings are showing saturation through the DGZ, and for a few hours overnight, and temperatures in the lowest 2km drop below freezing. Therefore, any lift that occurs in the DGZ should be able to develop dendrites, and should remain frozen as they fall through the surface. Although there has been rapid cooling, the actual surface temperatures will likely remain warm, thus should limit much of the actual accumulation. A few CAMs have been attempting to produce over 2.0 inches of snow within the deformation zone. To reach this, snow rates greater than 1.0 inch / hour would be needed, and confidence is low that this could be reached. In collaboration with other forecast offices and WPC, have kept accumulations to less than an inch in northwest Missouri. Travel impacts will likely be limited to elevated roadways and bridges, which may develop slush on them if not treated. Overall, even though the dynamics are quite robust, the antecedent warm conditions are expected to keep winter weather impacts to a minimum. With the temperatures profile, would only expect a rain/snow mix or just snow by the time temperatures are cold enough. There is no warm- nose present that would support the development of freezing rain or sleet by melting hydrometeors aloft. After the deformation axis clears the area and trough lifts into the Central Great Lakes Region, there will be a few short-wave troughs and possibly closed low systems in southern Canada. Currently, these systems are progged to remain north of the area, leaving Kansas and Missouri with brisk zonal flow in the mid-levels. This will keep conditions dry with respect to precipitation chances, and temperatures seasonable for early to mid November. GFS/ECMWF deterministic guidance toward the start of the next work week develops another deep trough with a strong PV anomaly coming on shore by Monday. Over the Plains and Midwest, this will result in in another southwesterly flow regime for a few days. This will send temperatures back into at least the lower 70s again, and depending on the exact magnitude of the trough depth, may even see mid to upper 70s. Once the trough axis crosses the Rockies, will be looking at another opportunity rain showers and maybe thunderstorms. There still remains spread among long-range ensemble members with respect to the amplitude and the speed of the pattern through the middle of next week. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 641 PM CDT FRI NOV 4 2022 IFR ceilings lingering through the overnight with rain gradually decreasing through the overnight from west to east. Wrap around precip is expected to mix with and change to snow along and north of highway 36 with minor snow accumulations possible. Farther south, precipitation should mainly remain as rain. Gusty winds out of the north are expected to transition to west, with clearing skies after 14Z Saturday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Krull Aviation...BT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
623 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Apart from elevated to near critical fire weather conditions over portions of the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau, the primary story in the short term continues to be this afternoon`s severe weather potential. Surface cyclogenesis has been observed through the morning and early afternoon hours across central Oklahoma as pronounced mid-level height falls begin to overspread the Southern Plains from the west and northwest. Attendant warm/moist advection has been evident through the period. A tongue of upper 60s to low/mid 70s dew points extends along a north-south line extending from approximately Tulsa, OK south through the DFW metroplex, ultimately paralleling I-35 through Waco, Austin, and San Antonio at this hour. The eastern peripheries of this corridor of high surface moisture approximately parallels the Balcones Escarpment in the EWX CWA, and has been sheltered from mixout thanks to early day stratus coverage overhead. A modestly sharp east to west dew point gradient thus exists along the I-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio as of 1:00 PM CDT. How this gradient survives the test of clearing skies and boundary layer mixing remains to be seen early this afternoon. The cold front connected to the OK surface cyclone is currently progressing through the southern Edwards Plateau, and is evident over portions of central Val Verde County at this hour. As discussed in the overnight forecast package, we continue to watch the potential for two rounds of storms this afternoon. The first of these, which will develop in the open warm sector well to the east of the approaching cold front, should remain focused primarily over North Texas and the ArkLaTex, where the greatest forcing connected to the encroaching height falls will be present through the early and mid afternoon hours. The 11:30 AM CDT update to the day 1 convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has been adjusted in light of this, with the enhanced (level 3/5) and 10%/hatched tornado risks now residing to the north and east of the CWA. We continue to monitor the potential for an isolated pre- frontal storm between now and 5 PM CDT, however. Recent runs of the HRRR have hinted at widely scattered development over portions of the US 77 corridor through this portion of the afternoon, likely connected to the corridor of strong southerly flow and moisture advection discussed above. Whether or not this activity would be able to become deeply convective remains uncertain. ACARS soundings sampled from Austin, Corpus Christi, and San Antonio all continue to show a stout capping inversion above the deepening afternoon boundary layer. A sounding taken at 11:21 AM CDT further to the east in College Station, however, depicts a virtually uncapped surface layer with approximately 1200 J/kg of MLCAPE and 300+ m2/s2 of storm relative helicity in the lowest kilometer. We will thus need to watch areas north of I-10 and east of I-35 through the early-mid afternoon hours closely, as any potential development in this region that can manage to break through the cap would pose a threat for large hail exceeding quarter size, damaging winds greater than 60 MPH, and isolated tornadoes. The greatest convective potential continues to be connected to the advancing cold front, which should be able to breach the remaining cap as it impinges upon the above mentioned surface moisture gradient later this afternoon and evening. The morning suite of high res guidance continues to suggest that development will occur near the dinner hour, somewhere in the vicinity of the I-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio. Given parallel alignment between the mean deep layer wind/shear vectors with respect to the advancing cold front, rapid upscale growth into some sort of linear structure continues to appear likely. Damaging wind gusts reaching and exceeding 60 MPH thus continue to be the number one potential hazard with storms that develop along the front later this afternoon and tonight, though an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out given backed southeasterly flow/veering low-level hodographs along and ahead of the approaching cold front. Isolated hail up to quarter size will be possible as well. The greatest potential for this activity will remain along and east of Interstates 35 and 37, with most development likely remaining to the east of San Antonio. The front, and any storms accompanying it, will depart to the southeast of the area by 1 AM Saturday morning. Given the timing of potential convective development, evening commuters along/east of I-35 should pay close attention to the latest forecast updates and watch/warning information through this afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Quiet weather is expected for the beginning of the long-term period of the forecast as short-wave ridging prevails across the region. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be quite warm with highs in the lower to middle 80s for most locations. Increasing moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere could lead to isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Monday morning into the early afternoon hours for much of the area. This is expected to be the only chance of rain in the long-term with the rest of the work- week remaining mostly dry. The next cold front looks to arrive Friday morning and could bring the next chance of rain and cooler temperatures. Will leave the forecast dry for now on day 7, but PoPs may need to be introduced at later time if trends continue. Regardless, ensemble guidance is on board with the cold front with possibly much cooler weather returning to the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Dryline/cold front approaching the I-35 corridor with SHRA/TSRA developing along it. KAUS has the best PROBs for impacts and have maintained the TEMPOs with brief restrictions to VSBY through 02Z there. The cap should hold over KSAT/KSSF and have kept mention out of those sites. Otherwise, VFR flying conditions will prevail tonight through Saturday evening. Northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 KTs with gusts to 25 KTs this evening will decrease overnight to 5 KTs or less, then shift to south-southeasterly around midday on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 49 73 51 82 / 30 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 49 73 48 82 / 40 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 52 75 52 84 / 30 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 46 73 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 49 76 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 45 71 49 82 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 50 78 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 49 74 50 83 / 40 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 53 73 51 82 / 70 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 52 76 52 83 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 55 77 53 85 / 10 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Quigley Long-Term...29 Aviation...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
943 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Warm advection and moisture transport that led to most of the showers and embedded thunder, has shifted east of the forecast area at this time. Most of central and south central KS, are now under the increasing influence of the deformation zone located just ahead of the main shortwave currently over the TX panhandle. Latest surface observations are still showing light rain as this deformation precipitation lifts north-northeast into south central KS, with surface temps in the upper 30s. As the overnight progresses, latest RAP bufkit soundings suggest that a 2 to 3 hour window exists where the rain may slowly changeover to a mix of rain/snow or all snow. Am a little concerned that with residence time of only a few hours of snow, and warm surface temps, that this will keep most of the snow confined to grassy areas. Still think some areas may see around an inch of wet snow. So will hold onto the winter weather advisory for now, but if trends continues, could see the advisory cancelled early. Ketcham && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 The main forecast challenge for Tonight is the location and amounts of expected snowfall (following a rain to snow transition). Tonight: The strong upper low over New Mexico/West Texas will eject northeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma. The area of showers/thunderstorms extending from central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas, will shift slowly eastward, exiting southeastern Kansas early this evening in conjunction with the 850 mb moisture transport. As the upper low ejects out over the region, an area of wrap-around precipitation will occur on it`s northwest periphery within the mid-level frontogenesis/TROWAL zone, affecting especially south-central and part of central Kansas. Strong mid-level/dynamic cooling, associated with the upper low, is expected to transition rain to wet snow, for about a two to four hour period across south- central and part of central KS from about 02z through 08z tonight. Instability aloft will increase the lift response, so the snow will potentially be heavy at times with large flakes (1 inch per hour rates) during that transient window tonight. We have planned a Winter Weather Advisory for 1 to 3 inches, with isolated higher amounts. Caruso/Jakub Mean westerly component tropospheric flow will prevail in the wake of the departing upper low on Saturday with afternoon temperatures expected near climo with breezy southwest surface winds. The only exception may be in parts of central Kansas, depending on how snowfall accums pan out tonight, so tweaked max T`s down a bit for Saturday in the Winter Wx Advisory areas. Strong upper jet will plow eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains Saturday into Saturday night with an upper trof moving over the north central conus thru early Sunday. The associated weak surface cold front will drop south across the area on Sunday with only a subtle temperature change expected. Ridging aloft will develop over the lower Plains on Monday with modest southwesterly flow aloft across the Rockies in advance of the developing trof along the West coast. A modest increase in low level moisture in the east to southeasterly mean flow with better low and mid-level moisture flux expected by Monday night resulting a slight chance for showers and isolated thunder. Darmofal .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Another deep longwave upper trof over the western conus will shift eastward into the Plains later in the week, though just how fast and in what fashion is the main challenge. The GFS is more progressive Wednesday into Thursday with the trof and associated cold frontal passage. This out paces its ensemble mean and the latest operational ECMWF. For now plan to show mild, above seasonal temperatures thru Wednesday with main precip chances transitioning from showers/storms Thursday to potential post frontal mix/snow and colder Thursday night into early Friday. KED && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Rather messy aviation forecast for the first 6 to 8 hours, as a dynamic weather system continues top move across the area. Post frontal rain showers will continue over SE KS for a few more hours, so will keep MVFR/IFR cigs and SHRA for the KCNU taf. Will also continue to see MVFR to IFR cigs across most of south central KS. On the backside of the system, expect to see a deformation area of precipitation, move out of northern OK into south central and central KS, late this evening, with a mixture of rain and rain changing to snow, due to the dynamic nature of this system. So will go with a few hours of RA and RASN for the KHUT/KSLN and KGBD tafs. As this area moves over, could see a brief period of IFR Cigs and MVFR vsbys due to the light snow. VFR conditions are expected to return to most locations by the daylight hours on Sat. Ketcham && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Low to moderate fire weather concerns this weekend thru early next week. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 35 61 41 63 / 80 0 0 0 Hutchinson 32 58 39 61 / 100 0 0 0 Newton 34 59 41 62 / 80 0 0 0 ElDorado 36 60 42 63 / 80 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 36 63 43 65 / 50 0 0 0 Russell 28 63 37 60 / 60 0 0 0 Great Bend 29 61 37 60 / 100 0 0 0 Salina 32 59 39 60 / 100 0 0 0 McPherson 33 57 39 61 / 100 0 0 0 Coffeyville 41 62 46 68 / 90 0 0 0 Chanute 40 61 44 66 / 90 0 0 0 Iola 39 60 43 65 / 90 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 41 62 45 67 / 90 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ047-048- 050>052-067-068-082-083. && $$ UPDATE...Ketcham SHORT TERM...JMC/CDJ/KED LONG TERM...KED AVIATION...Ketcham FIRE WEATHER...KED
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
800 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 .Forecast Update... Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 A significant mid-latitude system in the southern Plains will move northeastward with strengthening MSLP gradient tonight into tomorrow. Isallobaric response have backed surface winds slightly to south-southeasterly and decreasing mixing has caused gustiness to decrease some, but may still be present to some degree overnight especially as the core of the low-level jet starts moving in. Once mixing increases more tomorrow wind speeds and gusts will significantly increase and our forecast looks to be in good shape with no significant trends noticed in the latest models this evening. With the strongest midlevel height falls, cooling, and ascent being focused northwest of our area, low-mid tropospheric lapse rates will be poor and despite strong warm/moist advection will not be supportive of robust convection. Details on how the PBL moistens relative to the eastward moving rain band will dictate whether a period of a few enhanced wind gusts higher than currently forecast will occur, but this general pattern of poor lower tropospheric lapse rates generally does not support significant precipitation- enhanced gusts. We will monitor trends closely, however. && .Short Term...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 * WIND ADVISORY on Saturday with gusts around 40 mph * Rain on Saturday Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a large area of high pressure east of the northeastern states expanding its influence southwest across the east coast and into the deep south. A sharp trough of low pressure and associated cold front was stretching from western Ontario, across WI and MO to OK and TX. This was resulting in a warm southerly surface flow across the Ohio Valley. A strong pressure gradient was in place across Central Indiana due to these two systems. GOES16 shows an invasion of high clouds ahead of the trough spreading eastward into Indiana. Temperatures were in the lower 70s. Water vapor imagery shows a deep trough over the western plains states with a progressive SW flow in place ahead of the trough over the plains, streaming into the Great Lakes. An upper low was suggested to be pushing into the TX Panhandle from NM. A plume of moisture within this flow was found over KS/IA reaching northeast to western WI and the Great Lakes. Tonight... Models suggest the upper low will begin to make progress northeast across the plains tonight. This will keep fast southerly flow in place over Central Indiana tonight. Forecast soundings continue to reveal a dry column amid the southwest flow progressing toward Central Indiana as radar continues to show any precipitation well west of our upstream flow. Thus will trend toward a dry and windy night. Models do suggest the arrival of a 60 knt LLJ late tonight ahead of the approaching trough. This will result in continued mixing overnight. This along with continued time within the warm sector will result overnight lows at or above persistence with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Wind gusts overnight of 20-25 will be possible given the arrival of the strong jet aloft. Saturday... ...An active, windy day is in store... ...Wind Advisory on Saturday... Models suggest the upper low to the west to push from the southern plains to the western Great Lakes on Saturday. As this occurs, the flow aloft over Indiana becomes negatively tilted. Meanwhile the models suggest a strong, persistent LLJ around 60 knots over Indiana as the upper system passes to the west. The HRRR suggests a line of showers to push across Indiana during the late morning hours before a suggested dry slot arrives in the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest ample moisture on Saturday morning with saturation shown as the line passes and pwats over 1.3 inches. Wind profiles also show a very quick flow as we would expect given the earlier stated dynamics. However in the wake of the line of showers, subsidence and drying is seen within the mid level of the column while saturation remains within the lower levels amid cyclonic flow. Thus best chances for rain will be in the morning as the expected line of showers passes quickly before more spotty precip will be possible in the afternoon. Cloud cover remains a caveat. Should enough stratocu develop this could result in preventing some of the strong winds from mixing down. However given the dynamics in place, the ongoing wind advisory with gusts to around 40 is a good call. Given the rain, clouds and wind will trend highs to the lower 60s. && .Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 * Continued well above normal temperatures. * Dry through much of next week. * Rain chances return near the end of the forecast period. The long term period will begin Saturday evening with rain showers rapidly coming to an end in the eastern forecast area. Strong wind gusts will be rapidly tapering off as well as the front departs and the boundary layer begins to decouple. What will follow is another several day period of dry weather and well above normal temperatures, as broad ridging at all levels rebuilds itself over the southern Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The overall pattern will remain strongly amplified, with another large upper level trough moving into the western CONUS early in the week, before ejecting northeastward in much the same way that our currently approaching system will, returning shower chances to the forecast late Thursday and beyond. This looks to be another rapid frontal passage late in the week. Normal highs during the period are in the mid 50s, with normal lows in the upper 80s. Forecast highs and lows will generally be in the 60s to low 70s with lows in the 40s to around 50. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 647 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Impacts: * Winds remain gusty overnight * Non-convective low-level wind shear later tonight * Sub-VFR ceilings with rain band tomorrow * Even stronger winds tomorrow Discussion: A relatively strong mid-latitude system will pass to our northwest through tomorrow with strong MSLP gradient driving strong/gusty southerly winds. Given the strength of the low-level jet, even with fairly strong gradient surface winds there will be enough momentum in the 1,000-2,000 level to include non-convective low-level wind shear later tonight through part of tomorrow. The frontal band of convection will not be intense given lack of instability, and lightning is not expected. However, some momentum transfer may enhance already strong wind gusts slightly depending on the details of the low-level thermodynamic environment. Ceilings will lower to at least MVFR with these showers, and even after they depart, a period of MVFR stratus is expected. Post-frontal gradient will still be strong enough for strong gust through the afternoon and gradually decreasing during the evening as the surface low moves further away up into Canada. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ Update...BRB Short Term...Puma Long Term...Nield Aviation...BRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
648 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Key Message: -Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Saturday afternoon south of I-80 as temperatures in the middle/upper 60s combine with dry air and breezy west winds. Detailed Discussion: For tonight, In between system with clear skies overnight. This will lead to efficient radiational cooling. Lows tonight slightly colder than the previous forecast from the upper teens to lower 20s. Melted snow from today could result in a moist boundary layer with patchy fog possible. Will not include attm, as the HRRR, RAP and SREF do not support development. Upper flow turns zonal as a deep surface trough develops across the area. Westerly winds increase by mid morning into the afternoon with windy conditions. Gusts up to 35 mph are possible across southwestern areas. Downslope warming, will push high into the lower to mid 60s. This will lead to the potential for elevated fire concerns, especially south of I-80, where afternoon humidity falls to 20 to 25 percent and where the warmest temperatures are expected. An upper trough and closed low crossing Saskatchewan into Manitoba Canada will drive a cold front through the area overnight. There is a slight chance for rain showers across northern Sheridan County Saturday evening. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Key Messages: -Cooler behind a cold frontal passage on Sunday lasting through Monday. -A significant warmup Tuesday into Wednesday. -The next impactful weather system arrives Wednesday into Friday, with increasing precipitation chances. Detailed Discussion: Surface high pressure builds across the area on Sunday with a variable light wind and highs 50 to around 55. A deep upper trough digs onto the West Coast Monday, bringing an amplified southwest flow over the area. As a leeside trough deeps to our west, a tightening pressure gradient will bring gusty southerly winds up to 35 mph with highs from 50 to 60. Above normal highs Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong thermal ridge builds into the Central Plains. This supports highs from the upper 60s to upper 70s Tuesday. As the upper trough approaches the region, showers are possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. With the upper trough very amplified, Gulf moisture will be drawn into the region, with dewpoints in the 50s Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move into western Nebraska on Wednesday by The GFS and ECMWF. Both models suggest instability present and the potential for organized shower and thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and evening. Medium range models diverge on the evolution of the upper trough Thursday into Friday. The ECMWF is much slower and develops a closed low near the base of the upper trough Thursday night over western KS. This could bring increased chances for a developed deformation zone and snow. The current forecast is for much cooler Thursday and Friday with highs from 30 to 45 degrees, coldest across the north along with low chance to slight chance POPS for light snow showers. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours. Winds will be light overnight then increase by Saturday afternoon. Winds will be out of the west around 15 to 20 kts with gust up to 35 kts. Strongest winds will be across western Nebraska. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
926 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 No big changes planned this evening, going forecast looks to be in good shape. Should see a dramatic ramp up in winds early Saturday morning, particularly as the warm conveyor belt shifts east. There should be an envelope of strong, potentially damaging southerly winds ahead of the cold front and associated squall line. Always very tricky in warm sector, warm air advection set-up determining how effectively the boundary layer will mix. Assuming there is a several hour break in precip between the warm conveyor and squall line, it seems quite reasonable that boundary layer could deepen some and begin to tap into some of the extremely strong winds just off the deck. Working in favor of this scenario is the very strong pressure falls over WI tomorrow morning in advance of the rapidly moving and rapidly deepening sfc low. There is certainly potential for 50kt+ gusts if rain doesn`t linger and keep things a bit more stable. Opted to hold off on upgrading to a high wind warning on this shift, but think the chances are slowly increasing that there will be at least scattered 50kt+ gusts, especially eastern and southern CWA. Threat of thunder & lightning tonight (and Saturday morning) is low, however as trough becomes negatively tilted overnight and cyclone begins to rapidly intensify very strong forcing could result in some convective elements within and especially along the leading edge of the encroaching warm conveyor developing. Given the extremely strong low level jet, cannot rule out a damaging wind threat with any of these type of convective elements overnight, especially if they can becoming oriented more orthogonal to the LLJ. Threat of this is low, with southern CWA favored due to lower static stability. Squall line is likely to accompany cold front that will rapidly sweep across the CWA mid-late morning Saturday. Certainly plausible we could see 45-55kt gusts with this squall line, though many areas could already be gusting that strong out ahead of the squall line. In the wake of the cold front, could see a couple hours of potentially flirting with 50kt+ gusts before strongest pressure rises shift north into Wisconsin and wind fields slowly abate mid-late afternoon. - Izzi && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Through Saturday night... Main forecast points: * Low chance for a strong to marginally severe storm or two to occur somewhere along or west of the I-39 corridor through early this evening. * Widespread showers move through the area overnight with occasional embedded lightning possible. * Winds increasing in strength tonight and into tomorrow with continuous 45-55 mph gusts beginning as early as about 4 AM CDT and continuing through the late afternoon on Saturday. A Wind Advisory remains in effect to highlight these hazardous winds, which may down tree limbs and cause scattered power outages. * Band of showers moving in along the cold front behind the main wave of showers tomorrow morning, with potential for severe- caliber wind gusts to occur as these showers pass through. Discussion: A busy period of weather is in store for much of the central CONUS over the next 24-36 hours as a deep upper-level trough ejects from the southern Plains into the Midwest, eventually acquiring a negative tilt in the process. The low-level mass response to the trough ejection will feature a rapidly deepening surface cyclone develop west of the Mississippi River before sliding northeastward up the Mississippi River Valley overnight into Saturday and eventually occluding by Saturday afternoon as its tracks into Wisconsin. As this occurs, the cold front associated with this surface low will be thrusted through our forecast area, bringing with it some showers both ahead of it and along it, while consolidating pressure fields around the deepening low will induce a period of strong winds across the region through much of the day on Saturday. While surface cyclogenesis is still in its nascent stages, there is nevertheless no shortage of active weather in the region with a quasi-stationary frontal zone parked just west of our CWA and warm air advection/isentropic ascent generating showers and even a few thunderstorms east of it. While the warm air advection-driven shower activity has just about exited our forecast area (as of this writing) to the north, an expansive swath of precipitation continues to stream northeastward along the frontal zone with intermittent stronger convection riding along its eastern flank, where an eastward-propagating composite outflow boundary/effective cold front has been augmenting larger scale lifting processes. As this boundary creeps eastward, so will the precipitation, and it appears probable at this point that showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms, should at least clip our northwestern CWA late this afternoon and into this evening. While lapse rates are fairly mushy and instability will be on a downward trend come this evening, the environment is highly sheared and will support storm organization within any of the deeper convective cores that go up, so cannot rule out the possibility of a strong to marginally severe storm impacting some of our northwestern locales through about 9 PM CDT or so. Small to marginally severe hail would be the primary threat with that, but gusty winds of 40 mph or greater appear possible as well. Precipitation associated with the frontal zone should remain confined to areas generally along and west of the I-39 corridor until around midnight, at which point, the precipitation shield will begin to make more appreciable progress into our CWA as the aforementioned surface low begins to deepen and start to forcefully drive everything eastward/northeastward. Instability will be meager to non-existent at this point, so expecting most of the overnight precipitation to remain as just showers, but could foresee some occasional embedded lightning occurring within any pockets of stronger forcing. As the surface low deepens and approaches, winds will strengthen considerably overnight, with gusts of 45-55 mph eventually expected to occur on a mostly continuous basis throughout the most of the day on Saturday. During the overnight and early-mid morning hours, how strong gusts get will be dictated by how robust the low-level jet on the east side of the low becomes and how deep we are able to mix into it. The HRRR and RAP are fairly aggressive with the magnitude of the low-level jet, suggesting that 60-65 kt flow will materialize at as low as 2000 ft AGL at peak intensity. Other guidance is a bit more subdued than that, but if the HRRR/RAP verify, it`s possible that our morning pre-frontal wind gusts could end up being slightly higher than currently advertised. However, despite ongoing warm air advection, the pre-frontal rainfall will likely hamper how deeply we`ll be able to mix, so confidence in wind gusts exceeding 55 mph prior to the passage of the cold front remains relatively low at this time. Hi-res guidance remains in good agreement that a strongly-forced line of showers will develop along the incoming cold front tomorrow morning. While these showers will be brief, they`ll be fairly squally in nature and could produce temporary higher-end wind gusts of 55 mph or greater as the prevailing winds begin to shift from southerly to southwesterly as the front surges through. Behind the cold front, winds will continue to gust to 45+ mph in the cold air advection regime before gradually subsiding towards the late afternoon and evening as the surface low continues to peel off to the northeast. With there still being some uncertainty over whether gusts will reach 58 mph or higher at any point in time on Saturday, we and our neighboring NWS forecast offices have opted to forgo an upgrade to a High Wind Warning and instead have held on to the going region-wide Wind Advisory for now. Will continue to note that this is a higher-end Wind Advisory, and if confidence increases in slightly stronger wind gusts occurring at any time on Saturday, then the evening or overnight shift may need to upgrade this to a High Wind Warning. Ogorek && .LONG TERM... Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Sunday through Friday... The second half of our weekend will be far quieter than the first. Early Sunday, the jet will begin to steadily lift to our north taking much of our moisture with it. This will result in lots of sun and no rain in the forecast on Sunday. The height rises aloft and the southerly return flow at the surface stemming from the large surface High out in the mid-Atlantic will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 60`s across the area. Breezy conditions will continue into Sunday with a still-tight surface pressure gradient and some enhanced low level flow. However, winds will not be nearly as strong as Saturday. Gusts Sunday morning will be in the 20-25 mph range and will gradually die down through the day as the pressure gradient loosens up a bit. Temperatures will cool down a few degrees for Monday with a surface High approaching from the northwest Sunday night introducing some cool NW surface flow. Highs on Monday will top out in the middle and upper 50`s. This is still warmer than average for this time of year, though certainly much closer to average than we`ve seen so far this month. Temperatures are back on the up and up beginning Tuesday with the aforementioned surface High moving to our northeast bringing some mild return flow to the area. Additionally, a quickly strengthening upper High in the down in the Southeast will result in rapid ridging over the Midwest. Highs will climb into the upper 50`s/low 60`s on Tuesday and middle 60`s on Wednesday. The synoptic- scale subsidence will be more than enough to keep the area dry through at least Wednesday. On the windward side of the ridge, a speedy jet max will drop a quickly deepening Low at the surface over the northern Plains on Wednesday. A loosely-organized warm front will set itself up over the Midwest and could potentially bring us some light showers as early as Wednesday night. Rain chances increase through the day on Thursday as the cold front approaches. The best shot for some decent rain will occur late Thursday into early Friday when the front moves across the area. The trailing cool airmass is expected to bring highs down from mid 60`s on Thursday to lower and middle 50`s on Friday. Doom && .CLIMATE... Issued at 406 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 With Rockford reaching a low temperature of 60 degrees this morning and Chicago reaching a low temperature of 61 degrees during a rain shower earlier this afternoon, the daily record high minimum temperatures for November 4th for both of these climate sites (56 and 59, respectively) are on track to be broken. There`s still some uncertainty over how much temperatures will fall at Rockford this evening as showers move into the area, but the Chicago record will likely be broken. Chicago-O`Hare could also still make a late push at Chicago`s record high temperature of 74 degrees for November 4th, but time is quickly running out for that to happen. Ogorek && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Weather concerns for the 00Z TAFs: * Southerly winds with gusts of 25 to 35 kt tonight * Strong Low-Level Wind Shear (LLWS) of 50 to 60 kt tonight * Showers move in west to east around midnight * Even stronger winds Saturday morning, with gusts in the low 40s * Fast moving line of showers late morning with a front Several weather factors may impact aviation through Saturday into the evening. A broad line of showers is presently to our west and entering the western portion of the forecast area, with off and on showers already occurring at Rockford. All other sites should not see any showers for the early evening. Winds will be from the south and gusty, with gusts of around 25 kt through the evening, although there will be moments of lighter winds. Although surface winds are strong, LLWS conditions are forecast due to a strong low-level jet (LLJ) of 50 to 60 kt. These conditions will last throughout tonight and into Saturday morning. The area of showers to our west will move over all sites sometime around midnight, or a bit earlier at Rockford. Some lower ceilings are expected with these showers, but worst conditions are expected to remain at least MVFR. These showers will last for several hours, until early Saturday morning. Winds will continue to climb in strength as the surface low gets closer, tightening our pressure gradient. Gusts into the mid 30 kt range is expected for the rest of the night. Precipitation chances will decrease by early Saturday morning, although a chance for a few showers will remain. It is in the early morning timeframe when we expect the winds to really ramp up as the surface low passes to our west. Most models are in good agreement that we will see gusts in the 40 kt range from the south. Some models show gusts of 50+ kt, but confidence in that occurring is low. The surface low will quickly drag a front through late Saturday morning, with a narrow line of showers associated with it. Winds will remain strong, with gusts in the 40s continuing, but winds will shift to a more south-southwesterly direction behind the front. As the LLJ moves to the north, winds will begin to decrease in strength a bit, but continued gusts into the 30s is expected into Saturday evening. BKL && .MARINE... Issued at 926 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Have upgraded to a storm warning for Saturday. Seems increasingly likely that there will be a period of southerly storm force gusts during the mid-late morning hours ahead of a strong front, which too, could bring a couple/few hour long period of southwesterly storm force wind gust into at least the early afternoon. Winds should gradually abate starting mid-late afternoon and continue to ease into the evening hours. - Izzi && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Wind Advisory...ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039- ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108...4 AM Saturday to 4 PM Saturday. Wind Advisory...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105...4 AM Saturday to 7 PM Saturday. IN...Wind Advisory...INZ001-INZ002...4 AM Saturday to 7 PM Saturday. Wind Advisory...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...4 AM Saturday to 4 PM Saturday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...nearshore waters until 7 AM Saturday. Storm Warning...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...7 AM Saturday to 3 PM Saturday. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
942 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to move offshore tonight allowing our next front to approach the region. The front keeps shower chances over the mountains throughout the weekend before progressing east Monday. High pressure builds from the north Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances returning late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... High pressure continues to move off the East Coast this evening allowing for our next trough and cold front to move in. Enhanced south to southeasterly flow from a strengthening low level jet ahead of the front combined with a nighttime subsidence inversion will yield extra low/mid level clouds overnight into Saturday morning. 00z model guidance seems to focus on more of a low stratus over a large portion of the region compared to dense fog overnight. Even with that said, hi-res output from the RAP, NAMnest, and HRRR still show increasing confidence for patchy areas fog along the I-95 stretch from Baltimore northbound into northeast Maryland. Confidence is a bit lower on fog further south, but not zero with patchy coverage along the bay/mountain valleys. Areas further south toward the Shenandoah Valley and into Highlands could even see a period of drizzle early Saturday morning due in part to the increased isentropic lift with the jet and orographical influences of the mountains. Models remain a bit bullish here with PoPs of 10-20 percent through Saturday morning across the Shenandoah Valley/Allegheny Highlands region. Given the extent of low/mid level clouds and the potential for fog expect lows in the mid to upper 50s. Any fog looks to quickly burn off Saturday morning with low and mid level stratus shield potentially lingering throughout much of the day. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Most locations will remain dry Saturday outside locations west of the Blue Ridge. A strengthened low level jet out ahead of our incoming cold front combined with increasing low level moisture will yield a few showers over the mountains Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Besides the showers, low and mid level stratus could potentially linger through most of the day as the low November sun angle struggles to push through. For that reason, went ahead and tapered high temperatures by a few degrees Saturday afternoon to account for the extra cloud cover. Either way it looks to remain unseasonably mild with highs ranging between the low and mid 70s. Areas that due break out into sunshine later in the day may even touch 80 degrees. The other big concern looks to be the wind. Gusts of 15-25 mph remain possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Winds will gradually drop off Saturday night into Sunday morning as the gradient relaxes. Another mild day is expected Sunday with high temps in the mid to upper 70s for most as the ridge over the eastern CONUS continues to dominate. Have decreased PoPs slight Sunday given the downward trend in guidance, but given the proximity to a jet and the right entrance region, cannot rule out a few showers. Better chance in the far western CWA closer to the better forcing. Shower chances decrease overnight with yet another mild night with lows in the upper 50s to near 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure from the west will help usher in a weak cold front late Sunday night into early Monday morning. A few showers will be possible but overall a dry day is expected for Monday. Upper ridging continues through the middle portion of the week with the high centered further north into the Northeast region. Temperatures will be the main fluctuation throughout the period. Ahead and just along the front Monday will keep above average temperatures in place (upper 70s to near 80 for some). After, north to northeast flow will bring back more seasonable temperatures with a 10 to 15 degrees drop between Monday`s highs and Tuesday`s high temperatures. A coastal low may bring increasing showers across the southern areas of the region, with clouds building in ahead of it. Models are not quite in agreement with this solution so we will continue to monitor the potential for this over the next several days. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Expect a continuation of VFR conditions through at least the first half of the overnight period. Sun-VFR conditions are expected beyond 06-09z/2-5am Saturday morning as low clouds and patchy fog develop across the region Cigs look to be the big concern tonight with increased low level moisture trapped under subsidence inversion overhead. Expect MVFR cigs filling in over the ridges first after 03- 06z/11pm-2am. From here cigs start to lower toward IFR/LIFR between 9-13z/5-9am Saturday morning. With the extra cloud cover developing the amount of confidence for fog is in question. Highest potential for IFR/IFR vsbys down around 1 SM appears to be at KBWI and KMTN where the clouds will take a bit longer to fill in. Elsewhere confidence is a bit lower with low MVFR to high end IFR vsbys mentioned at both KIAD and KDCA as well as KCHO. Wind will be the other concern through the valid TAF period. NAM guidance continues to show a period of LLWS impacting KMRB, KBWI, KIAD, and KMTN early Saturday morning between 8-13z/4-9am. Right now confidence in this is fairly low to include in the TAF and will need to be reevaluated at 06z issuance if signal continues to persist. Model Bufkit soundings hint on this as well with southeast low level jet increasing overnight into Saturday morning before veering toward the south and southwest Saturday afternoon. As a result, expect gusts of 15-25 kts Saturday afternoon and evening with winds gradually diminishing Saturday night as the gradient relaxes. Could be a period of subVFR conditions Sunday morning given the abundant moisture, but lower confidence at this time. A low stratus deck or fog will be possible early Monday morning, especially in areas that do receive some precip late Sunday night but VFR conditions quickly return for the late morning/early afternoon hours. VFR conditions expected to continue through Wednesday with variable winds but mainly out of the NNE. && .MARINE... No marine hazards through Saturday morning.SCAs have been issued from noon Saturday through midnight Saturday night to account for gusty south winds. Expect sustained speeds around 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts at times Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Winds will gradually diminish Saturday night into Sunday morning. SCA conditions are possible along and just behind a cold front poised to cross the waters late Monday. No other marine hazards are expected for the period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A southerly flow will strengthen Saturday into Sunday. Tidal anomalies will increase during this time, and minor flooding is possible around times of high tide for sensitive areas. The best chance for minor tidal flooding will be around high tide Saturday and Sunday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon EDT Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ535-536-538-542. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EST NEAR TERM...EST SHORT TERM...KLW/EST LONG TERM...ADM AVIATION...KLW/ADM/EST MARINE...KLW/ADM/EST TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1151 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 318 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2022 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level trof moving out over the Plains, but the flow is still somewhat split. To the n, shortwave moving across northern Ontario has pushed associated cold front across most of the fcst area today. Front currently runs from Whitefish Bay to near Manistique to just s of Escanaba. To the sw in the base of the trof, a well-defined shortwave is over eastern NM/nw TX. This feature will be a significant player in the weather across Upper MI on Sat as it lifts ne and becomes negatively titled while passing across the western Great Lakes Sat aftn/evening. After a warm several days, the cold front is bringing reality back to Upper MI. Current temps range from the low/mid 40s behind the front to around 60F just ahead of it. 160kt upper jet axis currently extends sw across James Bay, northern Ontario to far ne MN. For the remainder of the aftn and into the evening, increasing upper diffluence from the right entrance of this jet and the responding low-mid level fgen below will strongly assist in spreading the current shra from KS to WI ne into mainly the se half of Upper MI. Then, the shortwave in the base of the trof will lift out toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12z Sat. In response, the cold front exiting se of the area this aftn will begin to lift back as a warm front. The resulting increase in isentropic ascent will further increase shra, and the shra will also begin to spread n and w later in the night. With precipitable water running 200+pct of normal (approaching 250pct), strong forcing will take advantage of the avbl anomalous moisture to support hvy rainfall at times. From this aftn to 12z Sat, expect widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches generally s and e of a line from Iron Mtn to Munising, with more to follow Sat morning. The higher amounts will be closer to Lake MI, and in particular toward Menominee. At this point, not expecting rainfall rates to be high enough tonight to result in flooding issues, especially since over the last 14 days, observed pcpn amounts have been under 50pct of normal across the fcst area and even under 25pct of normal for a significant portion. The dryness extends back 30 days across far southern portions of the fcst area. However, should rainfall rates become high enough, urban locations with known poor drainage (like Escanaba) may have some ponding of water issues. Temps tonight will settle to generally the mid 30s w ranging up to the lwr 40s F s central and e. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday) Issued at 327 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2022 Active weather...especially from a marine wind standpoint will continue into early next week. 980`s surface low will lift northward across Wisconsin through the west central UP and into Ontario on Saturday. Accompanying rain shield will lift northward across much of the area with the heaviest rain occuring during the morning through midday. Very tight pressure gradient on eastern flank will result in very gusty winds over Lake Michigan, far eastern upper Michigan and eastern Lake Superior late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Storm warning will be issued for Lake Michigan zones and high end gale expected for far eastern Lake Superior. Will hold off on land wind advisories for Luce and Schoolcraft until next shift as winds won`t ramp up until late in the day Saturday. Also, lakeshore flood warning will be needed for Schoolcraft County Saturday evening with very large waves expected. Precipitation will taper off for most by Saturday evening. The weather for Sunday will be mostly quiet...however as sub 990 mb surface low moving eastward along the Canadian border begins to merge with the low over Ontario a tightening westerly wind pressure gradient with cold advection will yield high end westerly gales and perhaps some storm force gusts over much of Lake Superior. With the favorable westerly direction...the Keweenaw will see wind gusts in excess of 50 mph from later Sunday afternoon into Monday. Wind advisories will be needed there. Things begin to calm down during the day Monday with a quiet and seasonable stretch into midweek. Models hint at another windy system accompanied by a few rain showers midweek and a few model outliers hint at some sort of storm potential for Veteran`s Day weekend. Lots of uncertainty across the spectrum of models and too early for any details. Temperatures will surge back above normal midweek before cooling back to normal late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1150 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2022 Poor flying conditions to continue with little improvement in the wake of an earlier cold front and another low pressure system approaching western Upper MI this morning. So, current MVFR conditions at KIWD and KCMX will deteriorate to IFR/LIFR around Sat 14-16Z where they will stay through the end of the TAF period. Meanwhile, LIFR will be the predominant flight category at KSAW for the majority of the TAF period, and LLWS will be a threat at KSAW this afternoon. At the surface, winds will be strong with sustained speeds in the 12 to 16 kt range and gusts to 32 kts by this afternoon/evening. Winds will start out northeasterly, shifting to the west and southwest at KIWD/KCMX and KSAW, respectively. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 327 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2022 Very active weather expected across Lake Superior over the next 72 hours. See full discussion for more details. As surface low lifts northward across WI Saturday morning...expect low end northeasterly wind gales to impact the western half of the Lake through the day. Tight pressure gradient on the eastern side of the low will allow southerly/southwesterly winds ton increase significantly by late in the day over far eastern Lake Superior. Expect high end gales to 45 knots for a 6 to 8 hour period...especially Saturday evening. After a brief lull Sunday morning...tightening pressure gradient between merging lows over Ontario and north central plains high will cause westerly wind to increase dramatically from Sunday afternoon into Monday. High end westerly gales are expected with even a few storm force gusts possible. Expect a quieter stretch early to mid next week but multiple gale events look likely over the next couple of weeks. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Lakeshore Flood Warning from 6 PM EDT Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for MIZ013-014. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ162-263. Gale Warning from 6 PM EDT Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for LSZ249>251. Gale Warning from 8 PM EDT Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for LSZ265. Gale Warning from 6 PM EDT Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for LSZ266-267. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ221. Storm Warning from 8 PM EDT Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for LMZ221. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ248-250. Storm Warning from 6 PM EDT Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...MZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1111 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the western Atlantic will remain in control through the weekend while slowly moving farther offshore. A cold front moves across the region Monday into Monday evening. High pressure builds in from the north Tuesday and moves off the New England coast Wednesday into early Thursday. A low pressure system impacts the area Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Forecast on track with just a few minor changes to reflect current conditions. An anomalously strong upper ridge (+2SD) along the eastern seaboard will be slow to retreat eastward through the weekend. This will place the area on the western periphery of the ridge with increasing moisture and warm advection. For the most part, it will be dry and unseasonably warm, but there will be periods of low clouds and fog, especially during the overnight into the morning hours. There is some concern on the extent of low clouds and fog overnight after there was some this morning which developed late but was also slow to burn off in spots. The latter of which was likely due to the time of year and an onshore flow beneath a subsidence inversion, which will weaken in coming days. However, model soundings are showing a fairly strong SW flow of 20-25kt above the boundary layer with some drier air aloft. The shear at the top of the layer could provide enough turbulent mixing to limit the extent bringing drier air down to the surface, especially at the coast. Dew points will be encroaching on 60, but water temps are similar, so likely not to see an advection fog. Both the 12Z MET/MAV MOS are not at all aggressive with low ceilings and/or fog. The raw NAM soundings of course saturate the low levels early this evening, the GFS much later if at all, and the HRRR does so mainly after midnight. While fairly confident there will be areas of fog and low ceilings, timing remains uncertain as does the coverage of dense fog. Lows will range from the lower to mid 50s inland, to around 60 at the coast. These are about 15 degrees above normal and are close to record high lows (refer to climate section below). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Not much change for Saturday with the dissipation of morning clouds and fog and another afternoon of near record warmth. Southerly flow picks up a bit with warm, muggy air being advected into the region. For Saturday night, with winds up a bit and more cloud cover, fog may be more patchy. However, will have to watch along the coast for the potential of advection fog coming in off the ocean waters. Sunday looks to be partly to mostly cloudy with a cold front approaching from the west. Any showers look to be spotty and well north and west of the NYC metro. Forecast highs are once again at record levels, but cloud cover could become a limiting factor. Lows during this time will be near record high lows. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A western Atlantic ridge will be weakening Sunday night into Monday as an upper low passes well to the north, across Canada, and off the northern New England and Canadian Maritime coast Monday night. Heights begin to rise Tuesday night as a high amplitude ridge builds into eastern Canada and along the eastern seaboard through Wednesday night. The ridge weakens and moves offshore Thursday into Thursday night, as low pressure approaches from the south. With a south to southwest flow persisting around the surface high through Monday an unusually warm and humid airmass for this time of year will remain in place. In fact, with the warm airmass record highs will be approached and/or exceeded at all of the climate sites Monday. In addition, record high lows will be possible Sunday night. See the climate section for the current records. With both daytime highs and night lows running 10 to as much as 15 degrees above normal, have used the NBM 75th percentile for highs Monday. The timing of the cold front, with little moisture, and weakening lift, is several hours earlier than previous forecasts. And if the trend continues through the weekend record high temperatures may not be reached as the front moves through early Monday. Have slightly increased probabilities Sunday night into Monday as the global guidance is indicating chances across the western and northwestern areas. Precipitation still may not reach the coastal areas Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures briefly return to near normal for Tuesday into Wednesday, and begin to rise for Thursday as high pressure moves offshore and a return flow sets up. A low moving northward along the Appalachians is still expected to impact the region for next Friday and used the NBM guidance with some uncertainty as to the timing and track. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure remains near the area through the period. The TAF period starts off VFR. A drop to MVFR/IFR conditions are expected once again with the development of low stratus and patchy fog during the overnight. Localized LIFR conditions are possible with patches of dense fog reducing visibility to less than a mile. Conditions are expected to improve back to VFR on Saturday, by mid to late morning. Light and variable winds tonight. Winds become southerly around 10 kts late Sat AM/afternoon after fog and low stratus burn off, turning SE late day. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Disagreement in guidance on timing and coverage of low stratus and fog is leading to a low confidence forecast overnight into Saturday morning. Amendments likely during this period for changing flight categories. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday night...MVFR/IFR possible with fog and low stratus. .Sunday...VFR .Sunday night...MVFR/IFR possible with fog and low stratus. .Monday through Wednesday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ && .MARINE... No changes to the winds and seas at this time. Southerly flow will increase to 10 to 15 kt over the weekend as strong high pressure retreats over the western Atlantic. Seas on the ocean will build to 4 ft Saturday night. Gusty NW winds develop Monday night behind a cold front, as strong high pressure builds in from the northwest. Wind gusts on the ocean waters along with seas will likely be at SCA levels Monday night. With a strong pressure gradient across the waters through Tuesday night, as the high builds slowly south, and possibly into early Wednesday, ocean gusts will remain near SCA levels. And, ocean seas will likely remain elevated into Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through next week. && .CLIMATE... Record warmth is possible this weekend into early next week. Here are the current record highs, and record high lows, for Saturday November 5 through Monday November 7. Record highs for November 5 EWR 77/1959 BDR 72/1961 NYC 78/1961 LGA 74/2005 JFK 75/1975 ISP *70/2015 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS Record highs for November 6 EWR 80/1948 BDR 71/2015 NYC *74/2015 LGA 75/2015 JFK 75/2015 ISP 69/2015 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS Record highs for November 7 EWR 78/1938 BDR 69/2020 NYC 78/1938 LGA 76/2020 JFK 73/2020 ISP 74/2020 Record high lows for November 5 EWR *61/1961 BDR *59/1961 NYC *63/1938 LGA *61/1916 JFK *60/1984 ISP *56/1988 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS Record high lows for November 6 EWR *64/2015 BDR *62/2015 NYC *66/2015 LGA *65/2015 JFK *62/2015 ISP *62/2015 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS Record high lows for November 7 EWR *58/2008 BDR *58/2008 NYC *63/1938 LGA *58/2008 JFK *59/2008 ISP *57/2008 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/DW NEAR TERM...BC/MET/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...BC/DR MARINE...MET/DW HYDROLOGY...MET/DW CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
853 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 853 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 The 00Z HRRR continues to indicate that the surface-based instability will not reach into our southeast Missouri counties before it is chewed up by the ongoing convection. Therefore, any severe weather in southern Missouri is expected to weaken before reaching our area. We will continue to monitor the environment, radar, and model guidance trends for any signs of an increased severe weather threat. Stay tuned. UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Headlines: 1. Very windy conditions possible tonight with gusts of 45-55 mph possible through mid morning Saturday. 2. Small risk of severe thunderstorms with the approaching front but instability still looks too limited. 3. Beneficial but not drought busting rainfall looks likely. Technical Discussion: A large and strong longer wave trough is digging into the central and southern Plains this afternoon. Lower level height/pressure gradients are tightening significantly in response and winds are already gusting to around 25 mph this afternoon. Moisture is limited and lapse rates are weak in the lower half of the column which should be important later this evening as a surface front approaches. Low level moisture advection increases tonight as the trough approaches and the column does eventually saturate enough to see rain and shower activity as a front moves through. The poor antecedent lapse rates, including a weak inversion in the lower 3-4 km of the atmosphere, and the lack of richness of the lower level moisture due to earlier mixing of dry air should significantly limit available instability for convection as the front approaches. The shear profiles are favorable for severe, mainly damaging wind, if deep convection can get going, but it does appear less than likely this afternoon. Gradient winds may however be about as impactful. NAM/GFS and high-res members continue trending up with 850/925mb winds - with values at 925mb around 55-60 kt. With 70-75kt wind at 850mb which NAEFS standardized anomalies showing 99+ percentile results. There is a significant antecedent inversion/isothermal layer in addition to the normal nocturnal radiation inversion which should prevent deep enough mixing to bring the full manner of those gusts to the surface, but gusts of 35-45 kt appear fairly likely. It is possible if deeper mixing occurs some 50 kt gusts may make it down. This would be most likely just after sunrise. This would necessitate the issuance of a High Wind Warning for portions of the area, but the probability appears too low for one at the moment. Clouds should gradually clear out by Saturday night with cooler but still warm by seasonal standard max temps. Sunnier skies with highs around 70 are expected Sunday. The surface front is expected to linger in the area but the depth of column moisture should be too limited to lead to much in the way of precip and kept the forecast dry. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 An upper level ridge will be building over the southeast U.S. into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday and gradually moving east through mid week. This will help keep our region dry and unseasonably warm Monday through early Thursday. By late Thursday, models show a cold front approaching from the west, with the expected passage through the PAH forecast area late Thursday night into Friday. Shower chances should spread across our area from northwest to southeast Thursday night, with scattered showers continuing through the day on Friday. Lacking instability will keep away any thunder chances. The last few runs of the ECMWF have been showing a surface low moving into the southeast U.S. on Friday. This was bringing some light QPF into our far eastern counties Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. The ECMWF has been trending this low a little farther east, looking more like the Canadian solution, so this should now keep showers chances from this feature east of our counties. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s Monday and Tuesday, then a return of south winds will push temperatures into the 70s on Wednesday. The increase in clouds Thursday and the passage of the cold Friday will result in a cooling trend, with highs Thursday in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and Friday in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Lows each night Monday through Thursday will be in the middle 40s to around 50 degrees.&& .AVIATION... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Gusty south winds will continue through the overnight and increase after midnight. Some gusts of 40kt or higher will be possible from midnight to mid morning. Scattered showers will give way to a line of locally heavier rain and isolated thunder as a front moves through early Saturday morning. Visibilities will drop to at least MVFR in rain with ceilings falling to MVFR and possibly briefly IFR immediately along and behind the front. Slowly improving conditions are expected by late morning or early afternoon Saturday with a persistent westerly wind. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Gusty south winds will continue through the overnight and increase after midnight. Some gusts of 40kt or higher will be possible from midnight to mid morning. Scattered showers will give way to a line of locally heavier rain and isolated thunder as a front moves through early Saturday morning. Visibilities will drop to at least MVFR in rain with ceilings falling to MVFR and possibly briefly IFR immediately along and behind the front. Slowly improving conditions are expected by late morning or early afternoon Saturday with a persistent westerly wind. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088-089-092-093. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Saturday for ILZ076>078-082- 083-086-087-090-091-094. MO...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Saturday for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Saturday for KYZ001>004. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Saturday for KYZ005>022. && $$ UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...JGG LONG TERM...RST AVIATION...ATL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1000 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the Mid Atlantic through the weekend. Light rain is possible across the western Piedmont tomorrow into Sunday, with dry weather to follow through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 PM Friday... Minimal changes at this point to the overnight forecast. The latest runs of the NAM and HRRR show the potential that some rain could develop as far east as the US-1 corridor, as opposed to the previous forecast that only has a slight chance of rain as far east as the Triad. While pops were not added to the forecast, all zero pops were eliminated and pops were raised to 14 in this corridor. In addition, Tarboro and Rocky Mount have already had reduced visibilities, something that was not anticipated until after midnight. Therefore, there may be some fog along and east of the I-95 corridor. Previous discussion follows. Despite a 585-588dm H5 ridge axis across the Southeast, weak onshore flow will strengthen tonight in the surface to 850mb layer. Associated weak isentropic ascent and increased low level moisture should allow cloud cover to increase dramatically overnight, with areas of light rain/drizzle possible primarily across the western Piedmont before daybreak. With cloud cover in place it may be hard to get widespread fog development but some spots could see reduced vsbys. Cloud cover should promote a mild night with lows in the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 237 PM Friday... Deep upper level low over the central Plains will race northeastward to the Great Lakes during the day Saturday. Moisture ahead of this trough will be drawn northward into the western Piedmont on Saturday but will be displaced well away from any appreciable synoptic forcing or shortwave troughs. If nothing else, the aforementioned weak isentropic ascent across the area should be able to tap into this additional moisture and squeeze out a few hundredths of an inch of precip west of I-85 during the day tomorrow. To the east...the influence of the surface and upper level ridges should be enough to preclude any precip from developing. Naturally cloud cover will be thickest across the western half of the forecast area but skies should be partly to mostly sunny elsewhere, and much warmer than normal. While highs should reach the low/mid 70s in the west, expect lower 80s across the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain. Another mild night on tap for Saturday night with low/mid 60s area-wide. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 152 PM Friday... Sun-Mon: The strong mid-level shortwave currently over the southern Plains this afternoon will have moved off into Canada by early Sun, while the 588 dm ridge moves off into the Atlantic, leaving a weak west-southwest flow over the area. The models continue to show a weak area of energy along the southeastern periphery of the aforementioned trough moving into the SE US and western Piedmont Sun, while some additional energy/moisture from tropical depression Lisa may also reach the Piedmont. The surface reflection of this energy is all but absent. Some afternoon instability across the western Piedmont could favor some isolated showers or a thundershower, but instability remains rather limited. We have continued a low-end chance of these showers mainly across the west during the day Sun. An anomalous and warm 588-590 dm ridge then builds into the area Mon from the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley, resulting in dry conditions. Surface high pressure from Sun offshore over the N. Atlantic, bringing in southerly flow, will give way to a pre-frontal trough on Mon with northerly flow. A cold front will then settle south of the region late Mon night into early Tue as a 1040+ mb surface high settles into the upper Great Lakes. It will be very warm both Sun and Mon with low-level thicknesses between 1395-1400 m, well above the average thicknesses (1341-1346m). Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s in most locations, except slightly cooler in the west Sun with clouds and precip chances. Records could be broken (see climate section of discussion), especially Mon. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend with upper 50s/low 60s Sun night to the low/mid 50s to around 60 Mon night behind the cold front. Tue-Fri: There remains considerable uncertainty during this period with regards to possible subtropical or tropical development of a large non-tropical low pressure system currently over the northeast Caribbean Sea. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to vary on the overall track, intensity, and timing of this feature toward the middle to latter part of next week as it tracks west-northwest over the southwest Atlantic and into the eastern Gulf. NHC currently has a 40-percent chance that it may develop into a tropical depression. Most guidance is in good agreement that Tue will be dry as the 590 dm ridge continues to dominate over the area and the 1040 mb surface high over Canada brings in dry air and closer to normal temperatures in the middle 60 to lower 70s. The more uncertain part of the forecast is Wed-Fri, when ensemble/deterministic solutions begin to deviate, largely a result of the mid-level ridge position and how fast it moves east into the western Atlantic from the Tennessee Valley, as well as a trough pushing east into the Plains late in the week. A more eastward progression of the ridge earlier would allow the deep tropical moisture (PW`s 1.5+ inches) and a coastal/wedge front and possible tropical system to bring in rainfall as early as Wed/Thu, while a slower solution would not bring this in until late Thu/Fri when the trough out west picks it up from the southwest Atlantic and brings it into the SE US with a cold front approaching. These differences are reflected in the top four ensemble cluster solutions of the EPS/GEFS/CMC, as well as the latest GFS/CMC/UKMET deterministic runs. As a result, have not changed much from the prior forecast, keeping the chance of showers Wed-Fri, though the trend has certainly been slower. Regardless of the uncertainty, we will continue to monitor this feature given the potential for tropical impacts. Temperatures will be near to below normal Wed (low to upper 60s) as the surface high over the NE US leads to a cool/gusty NE flow and possible CAD development over the western Piedmont. The surface high will slowly move off into the Atlantic, allowing temperatures to moderate back to above normal in the mid/upper 60s to low/middle 70s by Thu/Fri. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 725 PM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: Low confidence forecast. While all sites are currently VFR, restrictions are expected to develop shortly after midnight. Ceilings will develop at 3 terminals, likely low-end IFR at INT/GSO and MVFR at RDU. Did not have the confidence to keep the inherited LIFR ceilings at INT/GSO, and have raised the ceiling from 400 ft to 500 ft. At this time, it appears that RDU will be near the eastern edge of clouds, so confidence is lower as to whether a ceiling will be present. Meanwhile, farther east, it appears to be more of a fog scenario, with MVFR fog expected at FAY and LIFR fog expected at RWI (partly forecast from model guidance, partly from a persistence forecast). While VFR conditions should return by mid morning at RDU/RWI/FAY, ceilings will persist into the afternoon at INT/GSO. Light easterly wind overnight will become southeasterly Saturday morning, rising to 10-20 kt by the afternoon. After 00Z Sunday: An increasingly ely/sely component to the low level flow, around high pressure that will move off the Mid Atlantic coast, will favor scattered to broken (low VFR) fair weather stratocumulus by day and low stratus/fog and areas of light rain/drizzle by night through the rest of the weekend. Early next week, a weak boundary will move through on Monday followed by increasing NE low level flow Tue-Wed, which generally favors early morning IFR stratus. && .CLIMATE... Record Max and High Minimum temperatures through Mon, November 7: GSO RDU FAY 11/4: 83 (1946)/66 (1977) 84 (1946)/67 (1977) 86 (1974)/68 (1948) 11/5: 82 (1914)/65 (2003) 85 (2003)/66 (1977) 86 (2003)/67 (2003) 11/6: 80 (1975)/65 (1938) 83 (2003)/65 (2015) 85 (1961)/71 (2003) 11/7: 78 (1938)/61 (1938) 80 (2008)/61 (2003) 81 (1975)/65 (2003) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Leins NEAR TERM...Green/Leins SHORT TERM...Leins LONG TERM...Kren AVIATION...Green CLIMATE...MWS