Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/04/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
811 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 802 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Main upper low was over nrn Arizona early this evening. Meanwhile, an upper level jet was over ern CO which was still allowing for some banded snow, mainly along the I-25 Corridor. Latest trends suggest a gradual decrease in activity along the I-25 Corridor by 10 pm or so as QG ascent and upper level jet shift eastward. Across the plains will see some lingering snow overnight before ending late. Will keep highlights going in the mtns and foothills overnight, however, additional accumulations will be mainly on the light side. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Jet induced snow bands have begun to develop across portions of the forecast area this afternoon, setting the stage for a low confidence, but potentially impactful snow event through tonight. Key Messages... 1. Snow, heavy at times, is forecast across portions of the central mountains and into the Front Range mountains and foothills. Travel conditions will continue to deteriorate this evening, and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect until tomorrow morning. 2. A low confidence forecast remains for the I-25 corridor, though measurable snow looks like across the entirety of the area. 3. Wintry weather will end late tonight, with cool temperatures likely again Friday. A mountain wave will begin to develop late Friday with high winds possible for the Front Range. Details... Radar and satellite data show two main precipitation axes this afternoon, with the first stretching from Pueblo into our eastern Plains, and the second centered near Vail towards Larimer county, with lighter precipitation in between. Precipitation has gradually increased in coverage over the past couple of hours and should continue to expand through the evening. There is still some uncertainty where the northern, more predominant band sets up, though high resolution guidance has gradually aligned towards a solution favoring the foothills along and north of I-70, into Boulder/Larimer counties. This appears to be reasonable based on current radar trends, and thus we`ve tweaked totals a little higher in those locations. There is some concern for the I-70 corridor during the evening commute, with a quick few inches possible. Going down the hills, it appears that the northern half of the Metro, northward into Boulder and Fort Collins, will be the "winners" of this event. Both the HRRR and RAP multi-run means suggest 0.3-0.5 inches of liquid, roughly translating to 2-5 inches of snow there. This is also largely supported by the latest ECM ensemble. Totals will lower as one goes south, with 1-3 inches generally forecast for the rest of Denver into the Palmer Divide. As is the case with these jet/FGEN enhanced bands, expect some sharp gradients across the metro and plains depending on how long locations take advantage of a band or two. Precipitation should gradually wind down after midnight as better synoptic forcing departs the area and upslope flow weakens. There may be some lingering snow showers near the foothills tomorrow morning, as well as a band or two still over the far eastern plains, but additional snow accumulation after daybreak would be minimal. Temperatures will remain cool tomorrow with highs struggling to hit 40 degrees over the plains. As the flow turns more zonal, winds will begin to pick up across the high country, with stronger winds likely Friday night. The discussion below will cover that potential in more detail. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Main concern will be potential for high wind event Friday night and Saturday for the Front Range foothills. As the upper trof lifts rapidly out into the central plains on Friday evening, Colorado will be under a subsident and drier northwest flow pattern Friday night before shifting more westerly on Saturday. The pattern shift will set the stage for a potential high amplitude mountain wave for the east slopes Friday night and Saturday. Cross sections showing increasing cross barrier flow of 50-60kt by Saturday morning over higher foothills while the stability profile becomes more favorable for an amplified mountain wave with considerable warming and a sharp mountain top inversion developing around 700mb. RAP/HRRR/NAM showing wind gusts 60-80kt by 12z Saturday morning over the higher foothills. Local wind programs also pretty excited about high winds with strong gradients across the state and NAM/GFS showing GJT-DEN gradient up to 16mb. The only negative factor would be upstream moisture in the mountains which can deamplify the wave somewhat. At this point, certainly enough signals to hoist a high wind watch for the Front Range foothills for late Friday night and Saturday. With the upstream moisture in the northwest flow, this will result in orographic snow showers for the higher mountains on Saturday and into early Sunday. However any accumulations will be on the light side as moisture depth is rather shallow. The flow does shift more southwest on Sunday in response to next digging trof along the west coast. Across lower elevations, this all means downslope winds, drying and warming conditions. Temperatures to a big rebound on the weekend with the downslope warming with readings back into the 50s/60s. For Monday and Tuesday of next week, an overall dry period with a moderate southwest flow pattern ahead of strong upper low slowly meandering inland off the pacific. Temperatures will be above normal for the period with plains readings still in the 50s/60s. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with timing and strength of the next system as long range models quite varied with any precipitation into Colorado sometime Wednesday through early Friday. For now will just indicate a chance of snow in the mountains on these out periods. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 440 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Periods of snow will occur this evening with up to 2 inches possible. The snow should begin to diminish by midnight. During heavier snowfall look for LIFR conditions. After midnight should see IFR conditions with MVFR conditions by 10z due to ceilings. After 14z ceilings should be around 5000 ft and then scatter out by 17z. Winds will be mainly northeast with a light east component by 10z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for COZ031-033>036. High Wind Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for COZ035-036. && $$ UPDATE...RPK SHORT TERM...Hiris LONG TERM...Entrekin AVIATION...RPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1030 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures climbing back above normal through the weekend. Moisture increases this weekend with increasing chances for rain. More significant moisture increase expected by the middle of next week with potential for below average temperatures and unsettled conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... High pressure continues to dig in along the east coast tonight, but will begin to move off the New England coast on Friday. Light northeast surface winds will continue overnight. Expect skies to remain clear overnight based on current satellite trends. Although a 20 kt low level jet will be over the region tonight do not anticipate any widespread fog or low clouds. Some of the guidance hints at some areas of lower clouds toward morning, especially across the eastern Midlands and portions of the CSRA. Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Easterly flow begins to develop during the day Friday as the upper low pushes well offshore as upper ridging begins to build over the area with rising heights. Low level flow will shift out of the southeast with an increase in low level moisture expected as a result. PWATs will increase to around 1.2 inches but moisture will be very shallow. A few HREF members are showing the potential for a possible sprinkle in the afternoon but with general subsidence over the area, most locations will remain dry through the day. Highs climb to the mid to upper 70s. With onshore flow continuing Friday night into Saturday, clouds will increase, as lows will be mainly in the low 60s. Saturday, weak isentropic lift will increase with onshore flow continuing. Have continued to include chances for precipitation mainly in the NW forecast area around the surface high pressure. QPF remains light associated with any precipitation with SREF members favoring a few hundredths at the most. Upper ridging does remains fairly strong over the area with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Similar conditions overnight to Friday night with lows in the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ensembles and blended guidance generally agree in above average temperatures continuing into early next week with some lingering at least low level moisture. Blended guidance has little spread in temperature guidance through at least Monday but beyond Monday, uncertainty increases fairly significantly. This is due to an area of low pressure well off the coast that will move towards eastern CONUS. Ensembles are in good agreement of a significant moisture increase around the middle of next week with strong high pressure north of the area which will likely lead to period of below average temperatures and unsettled conditions. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure ridging down the eastern seaboard. Surface winds light NE or calm, with only marginally strong low level boundary layer winds from the NE to E around 15 kt shown on BUFKIT. Mostly clear skies in the near term, with fairly low dewpoint depressions would lead to some fog concerns. However, some question on wind, some possibility of some weak dry air advection near the surface, and some possibility of stratus development, along with inconsistent guidance reduces confidence. Latest SREF indicates some increase in probabilities of some CIG/VSBY restrictions late tonight into Friday morning as compared to the previous run. HRRR indicating some stratus. Confidence on specifics remains low. Indicated MVFR conditions developing late tonight into early Friday morning. VFR Friday after any morning restrictions lift. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low level moisture increase leads to increased confidence of flight restrictions Friday night and Saturday morning, and again Saturday night/Sunday morning, along with patchy light rain possible Sat/Sun. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
704 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Key messages: - Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms Friday evening through early Saturday morning along with a cold front. Damaging winds primary threat. - Front & severe potential timing inland: 9PM Fri - 3AM Sat A strong LLJ develops over South Texas tonight, ranging from 40 to 45 knots will cause mostly cloudy skies and low temperatures around 70 inland to the mid 70s along the coast. Stronger winds at the surface at or above 10 MPH will prohibit dense fog formation. Therefore have not included fog in the forecast but a slight reduction in visibility is still possible. A deep mid-level low progress eastward across the Great Plains through the day Friday, pushing a cold front through South Texas Friday night. Current timing has the front reach our western CWA between 7-9PM Friday evening, reaching the coast between 12AM-3AM Saturday. The HRRR and FV3 are the slower solutions compared to the NAM and ARW. The SPC has areas along I-37 and northeastward in a SLIGHT risk for severe storms and everywhere else in a MARGINAL risk. Guidance continues to trend that the storm structure will be primarily linear and along the front with supercell potential northeast of our area. Taking a look at the environment: CAPE over 2000 J/kg, SRH 150-200, PWATs > 1.75", effective shear near 40 knots, DCAPE > 1000, mid-level lapse rates over 7 C/km, and a STP of over 1. The biggest limitation is the timing of the front heading into the evening, we will start to lose instability and CINH increases. Therefore, expect activity to be focused along the front and narrow where there is sufficient lift and damaging winds will be the primary threat. Hail and tornadoes follow in order of concern level. Included isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day on Friday over the Victoria Crossroads where there is minimal CINH and PWATs are greater. Have coverage increase to scattered to numerous along the front through Friday night as a line progresses across the area. Rain chances quickly diminish behind the front with drier and more stable air filtering in. Highs on Friday will be warmer than normal, ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s, with lows Friday night dipping down into the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 We start out the long term period with troughing over the central U.S. associated with a mid-level low west of Lake Michigan and an upper high just off the southern coast of California. As the pattern progresses and the high slides east across Texas over the weekend, the upper pattern becomes more zonal. Around mid-week an upper low develops just north of the Canadian border of the Pacific Northwest along with a trough extending down over the Great Basin. This feature doesn`t appear to dig any further south as it quickly swings across the Rockies and lifts northeastward towards the end of the week. The main difference between models is in the placement of the low and timing. The Euro has the low further south, is less amplified and is much slower compared to the GFS. At the surface, to kick off the long-term period there`s a front that is expected to push offshore Saturday morning where it stalls briefly before coming back onshore as a weak warm front Saturday into Sunday. WMC`s GEFS show PWAT`s dropping to around 0.80" Saturday evening before rebounding to around 1.40" by Sunday evening according to the mean of the GEFS ensemble. The vertical moisture profile remains fairly dry throughout the period with much of the moisture contained from the sfc to 700mb. Hard to say how much sfc CAPE will be available and how stable the atmosphere will be because of the large spread in the ensemble`s. However, most members have values of less then 1,000 J/kg and minimal CIN. With the atmosphere generally capped above 700mb, have opted for thunder on Saturday and Monday when CAPE values are higher but generally expecting showers mainly offshore and generally east of the I-37 corridor. Another front with the aforementioned trough late next week could arrive as early as Friday or Saturday with the GFS pushing it through sooner. Generally expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop behind each front with drier and slightly cooler conditions building in behind FROPA. Temperatures Saturday will range from the mid 70s across the region with near 80 degrees over the Brush Country and lows overnight Saturday will be in the 50s to 60s. Sunday we warm back up as afternoon highs return to the 80s and persist for the rest of the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 704 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 VFR conditions and gusty southeast winds will continue through mid-evening across south Texas. Low level flow will strengthen over the area this evening into the overnight hours with a southerly low level jet of 35-45 knots. Expect MVFR ceilings will form over the coastal plains from 03-04Z and spread westward into the Brush Country from 06-08Z Friday. Ceilings will lower to IFR over the coastal plains from 06-08Z and over the Brush Country by 09Z. Patchy fog/LIFR ceilings will be possible over the inland coastal plains with MVFR vsbys from 09-13Z. Low level wind shear will be possible over the Brush Country with southerly low level jet near 40 knots. Winds will become gusty by 15Z with improvement to MVFR over the coastal plains and to VFR over the Brush Country. Isolated streamer showers will be possible in the morning over the Victoria Crossroads. Wind shift will move into the western Brush Country by late afternoon. MVFR ceilings are expected to hold over the coastal region north to the Victoria Crossroads through the afternoon. Isolated convection may develop by late afternoon to affect VCT area but expect most of the activity will be with the front after 00Z Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Moderate southeasterly flow this afternoon will strengthen to moderate to strong tonight through Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. Moderate to strong onshore flow will quickly shift to the north and become strong (20 to 25 knots) early Saturday morning behind the cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to begin over the open coastal waters tonight and continue through Saturday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon will become scattered to numerous late this evening into early Saturday morning. Flow will quickly diminish during the day Saturday becoming weak to moderate and transitioning back to onshore by late Saturday. Weak to moderate onshore flow persists into the middle of next week becoming easterly at times. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning will wane by the afternoon. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible once again Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 72 86 61 75 / 20 30 70 10 Victoria 71 84 58 75 / 30 30 70 0 Laredo 71 89 62 80 / 0 10 40 0 Alice 70 90 61 78 / 20 20 70 10 Rockport 74 83 61 78 / 30 30 80 10 Cotulla 71 89 58 82 / 10 10 20 0 Kingsville 71 89 62 76 / 20 20 70 10 Navy Corpus 75 82 66 75 / 20 30 80 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232- 236-237. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF LONG TERM....BF AVIATION...TMT/89
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 .Discussion... Issued at 356 PM CDT THU NOV 3 2022 Key Messages: -Elevated Fire Weather Concerns Through Early Evening -Isolated Shower/Storm Activity Late Tonight -Rain Showers and Strong Thunderstorms Friday, Marginal Severe Risk Discussion: The main feature of interest is the long-wave trough that has made landfall in the far southwest CONUS this morning, with the 100+ kt H5 jet streak heading toward the Four Corners Region. The thermal ridge axis has moved into the Western Ohio River Valley, but the trough over the western CONUS has maintained brisk southwesterly flow, continuing to provide WAA across the forecast the area. It seems the subtropical jet managed to find a pocket of moisture and has brought in a cloud deck this morning. This has kept temperatures a few degrees cooler at least through the morning hours, compared to the past two mornings across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The steady WAA though should help to boost temperatures back into at least the mid 70s for most of the area, with upper 70s south of Interstate 70. With the thermal ridge now east of the forecast area and H5 height falls entering northeast Kansas, we likely will not see any substantial sources of subsidence to drastically clear the sky cover (though may be more pockets of sunshine then this morning). As of this afternoon, dCVA is strong along the nose of the H5 jet from the Rockies into the Front Range. While not well defined as of this afternoon, surface analysis does show surface cyclogenesis in the front range in response to the land falling trough. There is also a strengthening thermal boundary stalled over central Nebraska, co-located in the area stronger H5 height falls across the Central Plains. Eventually, this thermal boundary will move east across the rest of the Plains and be the cold front that becomes the focus for active weather on Friday morning and afternoon. Prior to the arrival of the cold front in the forecast area, we are monitoring the potential for shower and thunderstorm activity late this evening and into the overnight hours. H5 height falls continue and somewhat intensify later this evening, and low-level pre-frontal troughing will increase convergence from Emporia through KC to Trenton, MO. 12z CAM guidance from this morning does develop scattered showers and storms through this area of convergence after 04z this evening. The H5 jet streak will be ejecting out of the Four Corners Region around this time, and will begin to lift the deep trough toward the Front Range and High Plains. This will increase deep layer shear across much of the warm-sector through this evening and overnight , with 0-6km bulk values of 50+ kts. The question though will be how much instability develops. 12z HREF mean CAPE heading into the overnight hours along this area of forcing is around 950-1000 J/kg, with the max among its members only around 1300 J/kg. With the current cloud cover across the region that the CAMs have been slow to pick up on, would expect to remain on the lower end of the MLCAPE. Most model soundings are also showing a strong CAP due to an inversion layer between 875mb and 825mb. The overall weak instability will likely make it hard to initiate a robust updraft, as the pre-frontal troughing likely will not provide enough lift to break through this cap. Any updraft will be based above 825mb. If an updraft is able to punch through, the higher shear may be able to organize it, and could support a marginal severe hail threat. 700-500mb lapse rates appear steep in in RAP and HRRR soundings through this evening. But as mentioned before, satellite trends are showing a lot more moisture than what the CAMs this morning had indicated, so the thermodynamic profiles may not be well represented in these solutions. The SWODY1 marginal risk across western and northwestern portions of the forecast area captures this conditional threat on an isolated updraft being able to tap into the shear. Attention then turns to Friday morning through late afternoon. The stronger CVA moves with the jet streak into the High Plains and Central Plains. As this happens, the H5 trough continues to lift toward the region, and the dCVA remains in phase with the surface cyclone to promote continued deepening of the feature. WAA ahead of this along with CAA back toward the Nebraska Sandhills will strengthen the cold front across the region. Surface winds back quite a bit turning more south-southeast for most of the forecast area, thus opening the Gulf back up and providing increasing moisture transport ahead of the cold front. There is potential for severe thunderstorms, but before exploring those details will discuss the QPF. The isolated to scattered storms early Friday morning will likely not have the richest moisture supply to work with, but a stronger storm could produce up to around a tenth of an inch. The main play for QPF will be along the cold front later in the afternoon and early evening. As the surface cold front approaches KC metro and areas eastward, the 850-300mb flow is largely parallel to the initiating boundary. Therefore, expecting numerous updrafts to train along the front, providing moderate rainfall for several hours at any given point in the vicinity of the boundary. There continues to be a subtle downward trend in QPF across most of the forecast area. Currently, the heaviest band of QPF basically along the I-35 corridor from near Emporia to the KC metro, and extends to roughly south of Kirksville. GEFS and other ensemble means around 2 inches along this line, with about 1 to 1.5 inches on either side of the line, and around 1 inch in the far northwest and far southeast extents of the forecast area. 12z GFS/ECMWF deterministic guidance remains a bit higher, with amounts around 2.5 to 2.75 inches in this heaviest band. The NAM still remains the wettest of the deterministic solutions, trying to paint a band of 2.75+ inches in northern Missouri, with a strong dry slot in behind it. The 12z NAM though has come into better agreement with the GFS and ECMWF with respect to the track of the trough axis, matching the faster propagation of the GFS and ECMWF. With the antecedent dry conditions across most of the forecast area, hydro flooding concerns will be limited. Only developed urbanized areas would see flooding with training storms along the boundary. In addition, the dry conditions may also limit the moisture supply, and keep the overall QPF closer to where the ensemble means are currently at. As for the severe threat, the theta-e advection will continue to increase the moisture supply throughout the warm sector, and saturate most of the column. By 10-11z timeframe, the cold front should be approaching the door step of our Kansas Counties. Weak convergence associated with the overnight pre-frontal troughing may still be around out to about Hwy. 63. While there will be isentropic ascent supporting stratiform cloud cover and showers, there may be enough mechanical forcing to support scattered convection during the morning hours. The instability still remains in question, but, deep layer shear will still be present south of Hwy. 136. Therefore, with increased convergence, will be looking at potential for a few isolated thunderstorms capable of becoming severe. Early in the morning will be looking primarily at a hail threat with stronger updrafts. However as the morning progresses and theta-e advection continues, parcels will be able to initiate closer to the surface. With the higher moisture content, precipitation loading may lead to favorable to conditions for damaging winds associated with thunderstorms. Between 10z-18z, there is a conditional threat for thunderstorms to produce weak and brief tornadoes, mainly south of Hwy 36. Low-level hodographs ahead of the cold front have moderately strong turning, resulting in 0-1km SRH above 250 m^2/s^2. Given the strength of the jet streak, storms could be moving at a decent pace, leading to low-level storm-relative inflow between 25-30 knots. The one factor that is greatly hindering the tornado threat is the CAPE, with values in the 0-3km layer nearly reaching 40 J/kg. Overall, for ML and SB parcels, the CAPE profile is very thin. Therefore, steady updrafts likely will not last long, as the strong storm-relative flow will not be able to ingest much into it. The better tornado environment will be well south into the ArkLaTex region. As the strong H5 jet streak remains over head in Kansas and Missouri , the overall hodograph remains quite long, which could keep stronger storms going for a decent distance though through a marginal thermodynamic environment. However, as coverage of storms increase and the cold front continues to propagate eastward, storms will likely congeal into a QLCS mode along the front. The convection along the line will continue to pose a threat mainly for severe winds, as the flow aloft will be around 50 to 60 knots, and the precipitation may be able to pull that momentum downward. The 0-3km bulk shear vector will be mostly parallel the boundary, and likely would remain parallel to a QLCS with the boundary. Based on current CAM solutions, it does not look favorable to achieve a 30 kt line normal bulk shear vector. Therefore, will not be anticipating prolific mesovortex generation along any line of thunderstorms with the boundary, and subsequently the QLCS tornado threat is very low. Will need to monitor storm-scale modifications though and watch the orientation of the line as it evolves. The Weekend and Beyond: After the passage of the cold front, the parent trough will continue to lift into the Great Lakes Region. There will be a couple of closed low systems moving across the Canadian Prairie Provinces that will maintain brisk mid-level zonal flow across Kansas and Missouri for the weekend providing seasonable temperatures. For the start of next week, deterministic GFS and ECMWF have another strong PV anomaly developing a deep H5 trough over the west coast, which creates southwesterly flow across the Plains and Midwest through Wednesday. This again will push an anomalously warm and moist airmass through the forecast area, and brings more rain shower and thunderstorm potential. Daily afternoon high temperatures could reach 15 to 20 degrees above normal for the early to middle parts of November. Depending on the propagation speed of the trough in the west, one of the days next week may feed a favorable mesoscale environment for stronger storms. There is a decent amount of spread in ensemble solutions through the the middle of next week though with respect to precipitation amounts, as well as the best axis of instability. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 640 PM CDT THU NOV 3 2022 VFR conditions through 08Z tonight with gusty south-southwest winds. Thereafter, expect isolated to scatted thunderstorms to develop as cold front works south. TAFs focus on main batch of rain, which will largely be characterized by low MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility. Expect conditions to improve from west to east as rain moves out of the area on Friday evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Krull Aviation...BT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
654 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 .SHORT TERM... Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Through Saturday... [Through Tonight] Breezy conditions today will continue tonight and into Friday thanks to a tight surface pressure gradient found ahead of a deepening center of low pressure approaching from the west. Winds will come down some late this evening as the mixed layer stabilizes and the low level jet subsides a bit overnight, though sustained winds at the surface will be moving at around 15 mph through most of night. The low level jet centering itself over the area tonight could provide us with some 20+ mph gusts overnight. However, this banks on whether we`re able to mix down some of the higher winds found just off of the surface or if we`ll simply be too stable. Simulated soundings from the HRRR and RAP suggest that gusts likely won`t be frequent, but the occasional gust to 20-25 mph is certainly possible. It appears that the best shot for seeing gusty conditions overnight would be in the few hours leading up to daybreak when high- res guidance suggests that we could actually see some gradual warming with ample low level warm air advection taking place. Additionally, an influx of low level moisture riding along the LLJ will advect cloudy skies into the area beginning this evening in the western CWA and shifting eastward tonight. Doom [Friday-Saturday] Main concerns: * Strong to potentially damaging non-thunderstorm wind gusts late tonight and Saturday * Showers and isolated to widely scattered embedded thunderstorms Friday-Friday night and showers ending by mid day Saturday A classic deepening fall storm is the main focus, with the big story being the strong to potentially damaging winds behind the system cold front on Saturday. The strong warm advection regime of the burgeoning cyclone will yield varying coverage of showers, as well as isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms starting on Friday. The main timeframe of concern for the damaging wind potential is pre-dawn Saturday through mid to late Saturday afternoon, with explicit forecast of wind gusts up to 50 mph and distinct potential for 55-65 mph gusts during the day on Saturday in the higher end model scenarios. Depending on how effective mixing is on Friday night and/or potential for low topped convection mix down stronger winds, 45-50+ mph wind gusts could start as early as late Friday evening into the overnight. Friday will again be unseasonably mild and breezy as a warm front drapes across the region, extending northeast from elongated low pressure trough from the southern Plains to the mid MS Valley. Magnitude of warm advection from robust low level jet implies good isentropic ascent (in addition to modest large scale ascent), along with moisture advection sufficient to force blossoming of scattered low topped convection Friday morning. Steepened lapse rates could support isolated to widely scattered embedded t-storms, particularly near and northwest of I-55 into the early to perhaps mid afternoon. The very mild start to the day and southerly winds gusting up to 30-35 mph, strongest near and south of I-80, supports highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and spotty mid 70s readings southwest 1/3 of CWA. As the warm front surges north into Friday evening, there may be a lull in the showers through early to mid evening, followed by a rapid increase late evening overnight. This will be in response to very strong 500 mb short-wave and associated PVA and upper jet assistance, as well as intense low level jet, and associated moisture advection and isentropic ascent. In addition to the increasing shower coverage and some embedded t-storms, the southerly winds will also be ramping up as the deepening surface low ejects north-northeastward and low level jet intensifies (with a lowering base of the LLJ as well). There`s variance in the magnitude of the low level winds among the model solutions, but a combo of pressure falls, effective enough mixing into the base of the LLJ, and/or low topped convection on the leading edge of the dry slot punch could result in stronger than official forecast 35-40 mph southerly gusts in the late evening and overnight hours. As alluded to earlier, prime time so to speak will be during the day on Saturday as the low deepens to around 985 mb over north- central Wisconsin by mid day Saturday. Behind the strong system cold front, and particularly after showers end, strong pressure rises and a very robust low level wind field could yield at least higher end advisory gusts in the 50-55 mph range with steepening low level lapse rates from cold advection during the day on Saturday Noting that the higher end GFS scenario features BUFKIT momentum transfer pointing toward a period of southwesterly gusts in 55-65 mph range from the late morning through mid afternoon. In addition, the 51 member 12z EPS indicates 50+ mph wind gust mean for parts of the area, and some low probabilities of 50+ kt (58 mph+) gusts. However, given tendency for some "ramp down" prior to these events and also variance between top end potential wind gust magnitude on the operational models, did not issue any wind headlines today. However, am anticipating needing at least a Wind Advisory, and tonight`s midnight shift may need to consider a High Wind Watch for portions of the area. Castro && .LONG TERM... Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Saturday Night through Thursday... Conditions quiet down for a few days early next week following this weekend`s storm system. Saturday night, the cold front, and associated rainfall, will be well off to our east and higher pressure will be advancing into the area. Dry air advection aloft will drive the cloud cover away Saturday evening and night leading to sunny skies to end our weekend on Sunday. A tight surface pressure gradient between the departing Low and approaching High, as well as continued accelerated flow in the low levels, will keep the breezy conditions around through Sunday. However, winds will not be nearly as strong as what`s forecast through the day on Saturday, but 20+ mph gusts can be expected, especially through the first half of Sunday. Beginning Sunday night, the jet stream lifts to our north with the strengthening of an upper level High centered over the Southeast. This will keep conditions nice and quiet through the first couple of days of the next workweek. Sunny skies on Monday will see a few more clouds on Tuesday with some low level moisture being pulled in. Through the middle of next week, a center of low pressure and associated cold front will be strengthening out in the Plains. While this front isn`t slated to move across the area until early next weekend, some guidance suggests that we could see a few light showers form along the quasi-stationary, loosely-organized warm front. We could see some of these showers arrive as early as late Wednesday but the better chances arrive late Thursday into next Friday. Doom && .CLIMATE... Issued at 350 PM CDT THU Nov 3 2022 Unseasonable warmth will continue through Friday and, while temperatures today at Chicago and Rockford fell just short of the daily records, Friday will see another shot at breaking some temperature records. Below is a listing of Chicago`s and Rockford`s daily record high maximum and record high minimum temperatures for November 4th, along with the currently forecast high and low temperatures at these climate sites... November 4 Record High Maximum Record High Minimum Forecast High/Low ----------------------------------------------------------- Chicago: 74 (1978/2020) 59 (1975) 70/59 Rockford: 74 (1978) 56 (2015) 70/59 Ogorek/Ratzer && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Southerly winds tonight, will occasionally gust to around 20kt, particularly mid-late this evening as flow just off the deck starts ramping up. Low level jet should result in LLWS threat overnight into early Friday morning with winds within 2kft of the sfc progged to increase to around 50kt. As temps warm Friday morning, could see a couple hours with gusts near, to potentially over 30kt at times as we begin to mix into the lingering higher winds off the deck associated with the dissipating low level jet. Scattered SHRA will affect the terminals from late morning through mid afternoon. Could be a couple of isolated TSRA around, but coverage should be limited. The rain should result in some modest stabilization of the boundary layer, likely limiting frequency and/or magnitude of southerly wind gusts, at least temporarily. An even stronger low level jet, likely reaching 60kt by mid to late Friday evening will again result in an increased risk of LLWS, despite southerly winds remaining elevated and likely somewhat gusty Friday evening. It is plausible that winds could increase above what is in the TAFs later Friday evening as low level jet strengthens, but confidence isn`t high enough at this distance to specifically include stronger winds. Confidence is higher in stronger winds/gusts occurring just beyond the end of this TAF cycle. - Izzi && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 4 AM Friday. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
906 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 833 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Small update this evening to push PoPs back closer to midnight for most areas, especially along and east of the I-27 corridor. Latest surface analysis shows a respectable dryline retreating along a Morton to Tulia line with a Pacific cold front from Texline southwest to near Roswell. Capping woes remain considerable as shown by 00z soundings from AMA and MAF, although this will change in the coming hours as height falls draw closer and begin cooling the column. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 I will preface this discussion with... There remains a lot of uncertainty on when or if storms will happen tonight... Early afternoon mid-level water vapor imagery showed an upper low moving into the Four-corners region. At the surface, moisture continues to advect into our region with dewpoint values in the upper 50s off the Caprock and values nearing 50F on the Caprock as shown on the West Texas Mesonet. As of 1:30 PM, a dryline exists near the TX/NM line. As the upper-low pushes east, the surface low in southeast Colorado will begin to strengthen, resulting in surface winds increasing and the dryline sharpening. This will push the dryline towards I-27/US-87 through this afternoon. If storms do form, they will develop late this evening near the dryline. This will most likely be along or just east of I-27/US-87. With MUCAPE values between 1000 and 1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear around 60 kt, these storms may initially be organized but should form into a line pretty quickly. The main threat with storms will be winds and hail initially and then will transition to more of a wind event as it moves east with 80-90 kt mid-level winds, potentially resulting in wind gusts up to 70 mph at the surface. Any storm that does form will most likely be out of the area around 8 AM in the morning. Two concerns that would lead to storms not developing are 1: not enough convergence/lift and 2:a strong inversion holding. The upper-low will move near the area late tomorrow morning, bringing increased large-scale ascent to the forecast area and pushing a cold front to the east. This could result in additional light shower (and thunderstorm?) development tomorrow afternoon over the South Plains. This development depends on the position of the low, as it will determine the location of the best lift and jet dynamics. If the HRRR and somewhat RAP are right; the low will be closed and near our northwest corner tomorrow morning. If this occurs, chances of precip or virga showers will increase and could bring the potential for wind gusts up to 70 mph as winds aloft will be 90-100 kt. If the low opens and goes to our north, our area could still see precipitation near a quasi-triple point over the TX Panhandle, but this would keep activity over the southern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. Any activity that develops should be out of the region by late evening. In addition to the possible convective activity, the pressure gradient will tighten as the upper low nears the area tomorrow morning. This will result in westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph over the area gusting up to 45 mph at times, especially over the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Gusty winds will bring the potential of blowing dust to the South Plains. GKendrick && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 By Friday night, the aforementioned low will continue to move off to the northeast away from the forecast area. This will allow skies to clear and wind speeds to gradually diminish Friday night. With the cooler airmass in place behind the cold front overnight low temperatures Saturday morning will be on the chilly side although with winds remaining slightly elevated they will remain a bit warmer than otherwise expected mainly in the 30s. With general upper-level troughing remaining over the forecast area Saturday, lee surface troughing will also remain fairly strong leading to another breezy day on Saturday with temperatures right around normal for this time of year under mostly sunny skies. The upper-level pattern will transition to nearly zonal on Sunday as several systems traverse Canada. The low over the Canadian Prairies may send a back door cold front into the forecast area late Sunday or early Monday. This front should be fairly weak though and still allow temperatures to climb slightly above normal into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Another upper-level trough will drop into the western U.S. on Monday and this will transition the forecast area back to southwesterly flow aloft. This will allow for more robust moisture advection back into the area around the middle of next week which may lead to some fog/low stratus once again in the mornings which will help to lower afternoon high temperatures just a touch. The orientation and timing of this trough remains in question for middle to late next week which will have an impact on IF any precipitation chances return to the Southern Plains. /WI && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Main aviation impacts will be two fold, the first being occasional MVFR CIGs toward midnight at LBB and PVW ahead of FROPA and westerly winds around 10Z. This front is more likely to focus some TS near CDS late tonight, some of which could be severe. By mid/late morning, west winds will become strongest at LBB where frequent gusts over 30 knots are likely through the afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...93 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...93
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
947 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 947 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Milder temps expected across the Midsouth tonight, due to gradually tightening low level pressure gradient and increased mixing. 00Z HRRR continues to depict high gust potential late Friday evening, with 40 to 50 mph gust potential accompanied sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph. As is often the case with late autumn closed lows and weak instability, greatest wind impacts may occur prior to the arrival of showers and thunderstorms. PWB && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 Another spectacular day across the Mid-South. GOES east visible satellite is detecting clear skies across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures are quite mild and range from the mid to upper 70s areawide. GOES Water Vapor Satellite shows a unusually deep trough over the Desert Southwest with a large ridge enveloping everything east of the Rockies. The aforementioned trough will make a quick march across the southern U.S. over the next 24 to 36 hours and eject into the Central Plains by tomorrow night. At the surface, a low will deepen quickly from Arklatex to north Central Missouri through this same period. This will help push a cold front across the south and into the Mid-South late Friday night into Saturday afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten significantly and winds at the surface will respond accordingly. Went ahead and issued a wind advisory for a good portion of the Mid-South Friday night into Saturday morning. Sustained winds will hover around 25 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph. Additional momentum could be mixed down with the cold front as it swings through the region overnight and taps into a 60 knot low level jet. With limited instability in place ahead of FROPA, the main impact will be gusty gradient winds. Power outages will likely be the main impact, especially in the metro areas where power lines are exposed. Will add this threat to the HWO with mention of power outages. The majority of the forecast area will see a good shot of rainfall with this system. Most areas will see around an inch, with areas further west seeing up to 2 inches of total rainfall through Saturday afternoon. The cold front will move out rather quickly on Sunday with dry conditions and mild temperatures returning by the afternoon hours. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s. The previous front will quickly lift back north as a warm front on Monday. This will bring a slight chance of showers to the Mid-South, but the main feature will be increased humidity. In fact, high humidity will be the main story next week. Dewpoints will climb into the mid to upper 60s each day as we remain entrenched under a highly anomalous ridge. Highs will remain in the 70s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s each day. The pattern looks to remain stagnant and warm through the end of next week. Models are hinting at another front next weekend, but timing remains mixed amongst synoptic models. AC3 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds will be from the south at around 5 knots tonight before increasing to 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts Friday. Some periods of LLWS are possible overnight into early Friday morning. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory from midnight Friday night to 7 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058. MO...Wind Advisory from midnight Friday night to 7 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115. MS...Wind Advisory from midnight Friday night to 7 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ001-007-010. TN...Wind Advisory from midnight Friday night to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>003-019-020-048>051-088-089. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...ARS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1058 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue moving southeast into the Western Atlantic through tonight. The high pressure area will remain in the Western Atlantic through Sunday. A cold front approaches from the west Monday and passes through late Monday into Monday night. High pressure builds in from the north Tuesday and moves offshore Wednesday. A low begins to approach from the south for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Minor adjustments needed to temperatures due to radiational cooling. Some stratus may be developing across southeast portions of the forecast area as KFOK is reporting some low clouds, but it is still mostly cloudy there. With high pressure centered along the coast winds have become near calm across much of the area under clear skies. The high slides east and a weak return flow sets up late tonight, with weak low level warm advection. Surface temperatures are still expected to fall through the night, however, late tonight the drop may stop, and temperatures may even rise a degree or two before sunrise. With a steep low level inversion developing still expecting fog to develop, along with patchy. A weak mid level trough moves into the region tonight. At the surface, high pressure moves farther out into the Atlantic. No rain is expected. Low level winds transition to more southerly but light flow under 10 kts and will present weak warm and moist air advection. Winds on land become nearly calm. Models have 850mb temperatures slightly increasing. An environment will be setting up that will favor fog development. Southerly flow and cooling temperatures tonight will make for low level saturation to take place more easily. Dewpoints slightly increase and temperatures cool to the dewpoint, leading to radiational fog. The RAP and HRRR models are indicating this fog to develop. The NAM12 also indicates this fog development in BUFKIT as well as with evidence of some very light moisture patches evident on their precipitation forecasts being a signal with supersaturation. Some of the MOS has started to pick up with the fog forecast as well but not as extensive or as long in duration as some of the aforementioned raw model data has indicated. New forecast has more fog than previously, patchy fog starting after 4Z, then eventually spreading and thickening into larger areas of fog after 6Z. Some of the fog could be dense at times but difficult to pinpoint the extent and duration of any dense fog at this time. Used MAV/MET blend for temperatures tonight. Went an extra degree lower for locations that typically have more radiational cooling. Vast range of min temperatures forecast, from upper 30s to lower 40s in rural and outlying areas to low to mid 50s within NYC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... In the mid levels, ridging takes place Friday through Friday night with height rises. At the surface, high pressure continues to move slowly out into the Atlantic, allowing for southerly low level flow to continue across the local region. No rain is expected. Not much significant change with model projections of 850mb temperatures for Friday compared to the previous day. Some more cirrus clouds are expected for Friday into Friday night. Fog lasts into Friday morning by 13-14Z. The fog burns off in the late morning. The winds will be relatively higher than the previous day and will allow for greater vertical mixing. This will moderate temperatures with more marine influence across coastal sections. Expecting similar high temperatures to the previous day. NBM 50th percentile used for the forecast high temperatures with highs mostly in the upper 60s to near 70. Highs forecast are more in the mid 60s for Eastern Long Island. For Friday night, with some more cirrus clouds moving in and relatively a little higher onshore flow will make for relatively warmer lows compared to the previous night. Used MAV/MET/NBM blend for forecast low temperatures and these will convey a less vast range of values from the lower 50s to lower 60s. For Friday night, expecting another period of fog formation with patchy to larger areas of coverage, some of which again could be dense. More uncertainty as to whether there will be more low level stratus moving in or fog formation. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A western Atlantic ridge will remain from near the Canadian Maritimes to off the southern coast Saturday through Sunday. The ridge will weaken and drift eastward Sunday night through Monday night as an upper low passes well to the north, across Canada. Ridging builds back into the eastern coast Tuesday through Wednesday night, and weakens Thursday as low pressure approaches from the south. With a south to southwest flow persisting around the surface high Saturday through Monday an unusually warm and humid airmass for this time of year will remain in place. In fact, with the warm airmass record highs are possible Saturday through Monday, with record high low temperatures also possible. See the climate section for the current records. With both daytime highs and night lows running 10 to as much as 15 degrees above normal, have used the NBM 75th percentile for highs which increased inland temperatures a couple of degrees, and used the NBM guidance for lows. Currently the timing of a cold front is slightly quicker than the previous forecast, possibly moving through late Monday into Monday night. The timing of this front will have an impact to temperatures Monday, and with a quicker passage record highs may not be reached. Also, there will be little moisture with the front, and the global guidance does dry up the moistures as the front moves farther east into the forecast area. So have maintained probabilities only across the western sections of the area at this time, using the NBM with slight adjustments. Temperatures briefly return to near normal for Tuesday into Wednesday, and begin to rise for Thursday. Tuesday through Thursday used the NBM guidance for highs and lows. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will be over the area through the period. VFR before 06Z. There will likely be some fog and/or low stratus development late tonight with MVFR to IFR cond through the Fri AM push. In fact, KFOK was reporting FEW at 500 ft as of around 03Z, which may be a sign of developing stratus. Cannot rule out LIFR or lower at times especially from about 10Z-13Z. Light and variable winds tonight. S flow 5-10 kt late AM/afternoon after fog and low stratus burn off, turning SE late day. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely late tonight and into Fri morning for lowering flight categories with potential fog and/or low stratus. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday afternoon...VFR. .Friday night and Saturday morning...IFR to LIFR possible with fog and low stratus redevelopment. .Saturday night and Sunday morning...MVFR likely, IFR possible with fog and low stratus. .Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ && .MARINE... No changes to winds and seas at this time. With a relatively weak pressure gradient across the waters, conditions on all local waters are forecast to remain well below SCA thresholds. High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic Saturday into Sunday, then drift east Monday as a cold front moves into the forecast waters late Monday into Monday night. Winds and seas remain below SCA levels Saturday and Sunday, then with the persistent and long fetch southerly flow Saturday through Sunday night, ocean seas likely build to SCA levels by Sunday evening and remain elevated into Monday night, and possibly into Tuesday. Winds shift to northwest Monday night with the passage of a cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through Thursday. && .CLIMATE... Record warmth is possible this weekend into early next week. Here are the current record highs, and record high lows, for Saturday November 5 through Monday November 7. Record highs for November 5 EWR 77/1959 BDR 72/1961 NYC 78/1961 LGA 74/2005 JFK 75/1975 ISP *70/2015 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS Record highs for November 6 EWR 80/1948 BDR 71/2015 NYC *74/2015 LGA 75/2015 JFK 75/2015 ISP 69/2015 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS Record highs for November 7 EWR 78/1938 BDR 69/2020 NYC 78/1938 LGA 76/2020 JFK 73/2020 ISP 74/2020 Record high lows for November 5 EWR *61/1961 BDR *59/1961 NYC *63/1938 LGA *61/1916 JFK *60/1984 ISP *56/1988 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS Record high lows for November 6 EWR *64/2015 BDR *62/2015 NYC *66/2015 LGA *65/2015 JFK *62/2015 ISP *62/2015 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS Record high lows for November 7 EWR *58/2008 BDR *58/2008 NYC *63/1938 LGA *58/2008 JFK *59/2008 ISP *57/2008 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/MET NEAR TERM...JM/JP/MET SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JP MARINE...JM/MET HYDROLOGY...MET CLIMATE...