Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/04/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
811 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022
Main upper low was over nrn Arizona early this evening. Meanwhile,
an upper level jet was over ern CO which was still allowing for
some banded snow, mainly along the I-25 Corridor. Latest trends
suggest a gradual decrease in activity along the I-25 Corridor
by 10 pm or so as QG ascent and upper level jet shift eastward.
Across the plains will see some lingering snow overnight before
ending late. Will keep highlights going in the mtns and foothills
overnight, however, additional accumulations will be mainly on the
light side.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022
Jet induced snow bands have begun to develop across portions of
the forecast area this afternoon, setting the stage for a low
confidence, but potentially impactful snow event through tonight.
Key Messages...
1. Snow, heavy at times, is forecast across portions of the
central mountains and into the Front Range mountains and
foothills. Travel conditions will continue to deteriorate this
evening, and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect until
tomorrow morning.
2. A low confidence forecast remains for the I-25 corridor, though
measurable snow looks like across the entirety of the area.
3. Wintry weather will end late tonight, with cool temperatures
likely again Friday. A mountain wave will begin to develop late
Friday with high winds possible for the Front Range.
Details...
Radar and satellite data show two main precipitation axes this
afternoon, with the first stretching from Pueblo into our eastern
Plains, and the second centered near Vail towards Larimer county,
with lighter precipitation in between. Precipitation has
gradually increased in coverage over the past couple of hours and
should continue to expand through the evening. There is still some
uncertainty where the northern, more predominant band sets up,
though high resolution guidance has gradually aligned towards a
solution favoring the foothills along and north of I-70, into
Boulder/Larimer counties. This appears to be reasonable based on
current radar trends, and thus we`ve tweaked totals a little
higher in those locations. There is some concern for the I-70
corridor during the evening commute, with a quick few inches
possible.
Going down the hills, it appears that the northern half of the
Metro, northward into Boulder and Fort Collins, will be the
"winners" of this event. Both the HRRR and RAP multi-run means
suggest 0.3-0.5 inches of liquid, roughly translating to 2-5
inches of snow there. This is also largely supported by the
latest ECM ensemble. Totals will lower as one goes south, with
1-3 inches generally forecast for the rest of Denver into the
Palmer Divide. As is the case with these jet/FGEN enhanced bands,
expect some sharp gradients across the metro and plains depending
on how long locations take advantage of a band or two.
Precipitation should gradually wind down after midnight as better
synoptic forcing departs the area and upslope flow weakens. There
may be some lingering snow showers near the foothills tomorrow
morning, as well as a band or two still over the far eastern
plains, but additional snow accumulation after daybreak would be
minimal. Temperatures will remain cool tomorrow with highs
struggling to hit 40 degrees over the plains. As the flow turns
more zonal, winds will begin to pick up across the high country,
with stronger winds likely Friday night. The discussion below will
cover that potential in more detail.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022
Main concern will be potential for high wind event Friday night
and Saturday for the Front Range foothills. As the upper trof
lifts rapidly out into the central plains on Friday evening,
Colorado will be under a subsident and drier northwest flow
pattern Friday night before shifting more westerly on Saturday.
The pattern shift will set the stage for a potential high
amplitude mountain wave for the east slopes Friday night and
Saturday. Cross sections showing increasing cross barrier flow of
50-60kt by Saturday morning over higher foothills while the
stability profile becomes more favorable for an amplified mountain
wave with considerable warming and a sharp mountain top inversion
developing around 700mb. RAP/HRRR/NAM showing wind gusts 60-80kt
by 12z Saturday morning over the higher foothills. Local wind
programs also pretty excited about high winds with strong
gradients across the state and NAM/GFS showing GJT-DEN gradient up
to 16mb. The only negative factor would be upstream moisture in
the mountains which can deamplify the wave somewhat. At this
point, certainly enough signals to hoist a high wind watch for the
Front Range foothills for late Friday night and Saturday.
With the upstream moisture in the northwest flow, this will result
in orographic snow showers for the higher mountains on Saturday and
into early Sunday. However any accumulations will be on the light
side as moisture depth is rather shallow. The flow does shift more
southwest on Sunday in response to next digging trof along the west
coast. Across lower elevations, this all means downslope winds,
drying and warming conditions. Temperatures to a big rebound on the
weekend with the downslope warming with readings back into the
50s/60s.
For Monday and Tuesday of next week, an overall dry period with a
moderate southwest flow pattern ahead of strong upper low slowly
meandering inland off the pacific. Temperatures will be above normal
for the period with plains readings still in the 50s/60s. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty with timing and strength of the next
system as long range models quite varied with any precipitation
into Colorado sometime Wednesday through early Friday. For now
will just indicate a chance of snow in the mountains on these out
periods.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 440 PM MDT Thu Nov 3 2022
Periods of snow will occur this evening with up to 2 inches
possible. The snow should begin to diminish by midnight. During
heavier snowfall look for LIFR conditions. After midnight should
see IFR conditions with MVFR conditions by 10z due to ceilings.
After 14z ceilings should be around 5000 ft and then scatter out
by 17z. Winds will be mainly northeast with a light east
component by 10z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for COZ031-033>036.
High Wind Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
afternoon for COZ035-036.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...RPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1030 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures climbing back above normal through the weekend.
Moisture increases this weekend with increasing chances for
rain. More significant moisture increase expected by the middle
of next week with potential for below average temperatures and
unsettled conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
High pressure continues to dig in along the east coast tonight,
but will begin to move off the New England coast on Friday.
Light northeast surface winds will continue overnight. Expect
skies to remain clear overnight based on current satellite
trends. Although a 20 kt low level jet will be over the region
tonight do not anticipate any widespread fog or low clouds. Some
of the guidance hints at some areas of lower clouds toward
morning, especially across the eastern Midlands and portions of
the CSRA. Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Easterly flow begins to develop during the day Friday as the
upper low pushes well offshore as upper ridging begins to build
over the area with rising heights. Low level flow will shift out
of the southeast with an increase in low level moisture expected
as a result. PWATs will increase to around 1.2 inches but
moisture will be very shallow. A few HREF members are showing
the potential for a possible sprinkle in the afternoon but with
general subsidence over the area, most locations will remain dry
through the day. Highs climb to the mid to upper 70s. With
onshore flow continuing Friday night into Saturday, clouds will
increase, as lows will be mainly in the low 60s.
Saturday, weak isentropic lift will increase with onshore flow
continuing. Have continued to include chances for precipitation
mainly in the NW forecast area around the surface high pressure.
QPF remains light associated with any precipitation with SREF
members favoring a few hundredths at the most. Upper ridging
does remains fairly strong over the area with highs in the upper
70s and low 80s. Similar conditions overnight to Friday night with
lows in the low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ensembles and blended guidance generally agree in above average
temperatures continuing into early next week with some lingering
at least low level moisture. Blended guidance has little spread
in temperature guidance through at least Monday but beyond
Monday, uncertainty increases fairly significantly. This is due
to an area of low pressure well off the coast that will move
towards eastern CONUS. Ensembles are in good agreement of a
significant moisture increase around the middle of next week
with strong high pressure north of the area which will likely
lead to period of below average temperatures and unsettled
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure ridging down the eastern seaboard.
Surface winds light NE or calm, with only marginally strong low
level boundary layer winds from the NE to E around 15 kt shown
on BUFKIT. Mostly clear skies in the near term, with fairly low
dewpoint depressions would lead to some fog concerns. However,
some question on wind, some possibility of some weak dry air
advection near the surface, and some possibility of stratus
development, along with inconsistent guidance reduces
confidence. Latest SREF indicates some increase in probabilities
of some CIG/VSBY restrictions late tonight into Friday morning
as compared to the previous run. HRRR indicating some stratus.
Confidence on specifics remains low. Indicated MVFR conditions
developing late tonight into early Friday morning. VFR Friday
after any morning restrictions lift.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low level moisture increase leads to
increased confidence of flight restrictions Friday night and
Saturday morning, and again Saturday night/Sunday morning, along
with patchy light rain possible Sat/Sun.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
704 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
Key messages:
- Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms Friday evening through
early Saturday morning along with a cold front. Damaging winds
primary threat.
- Front & severe potential timing inland: 9PM Fri - 3AM Sat
A strong LLJ develops over South Texas tonight, ranging from 40 to
45 knots will cause mostly cloudy skies and low temperatures
around 70 inland to the mid 70s along the coast. Stronger winds at
the surface at or above 10 MPH will prohibit dense fog formation.
Therefore have not included fog in the forecast but a slight
reduction in visibility is still possible.
A deep mid-level low progress eastward across the Great Plains
through the day Friday, pushing a cold front through South Texas
Friday night. Current timing has the front reach our western CWA
between 7-9PM Friday evening, reaching the coast between 12AM-3AM
Saturday. The HRRR and FV3 are the slower solutions compared to
the NAM and ARW. The SPC has areas along I-37 and northeastward in
a SLIGHT risk for severe storms and everywhere else in a MARGINAL
risk. Guidance continues to trend that the storm structure will be
primarily linear and along the front with supercell potential
northeast of our area. Taking a look at the environment: CAPE over
2000 J/kg, SRH 150-200, PWATs > 1.75", effective shear near 40
knots, DCAPE > 1000, mid-level lapse rates over 7 C/km, and a STP
of over 1. The biggest limitation is the timing of the front
heading into the evening, we will start to lose instability and
CINH increases. Therefore, expect activity to be focused along the
front and narrow where there is sufficient lift and damaging winds
will be the primary threat. Hail and tornadoes follow in order of
concern level.
Included isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through
the day on Friday over the Victoria Crossroads where there is
minimal CINH and PWATs are greater. Have coverage increase to
scattered to numerous along the front through Friday night as a
line progresses across the area. Rain chances quickly diminish
behind the front with drier and more stable air filtering in.
Highs on Friday will be warmer than normal, ranging from the mid
80s to lower 90s, with lows Friday night dipping down into the
upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
We start out the long term period with troughing over the central
U.S. associated with a mid-level low west of Lake Michigan and an
upper high just off the southern coast of California. As the pattern
progresses and the high slides east across Texas over the weekend,
the upper pattern becomes more zonal. Around mid-week an upper low
develops just north of the Canadian border of the Pacific Northwest
along with a trough extending down over the Great Basin. This
feature doesn`t appear to dig any further south as it quickly swings
across the Rockies and lifts northeastward towards the end of the
week. The main difference between models is in the placement of the
low and timing. The Euro has the low further south, is less
amplified and is much slower compared to the GFS.
At the surface, to kick off the long-term period there`s a front
that is expected to push offshore Saturday morning where it stalls
briefly before coming back onshore as a weak warm front Saturday
into Sunday. WMC`s GEFS show PWAT`s dropping to around 0.80"
Saturday evening before rebounding to around 1.40" by Sunday evening
according to the mean of the GEFS ensemble. The vertical moisture
profile remains fairly dry throughout the period with much of the
moisture contained from the sfc to 700mb. Hard to say how much sfc
CAPE will be available and how stable the atmosphere will be because
of the large spread in the ensemble`s. However, most members have
values of less then 1,000 J/kg and minimal CIN. With the atmosphere
generally capped above 700mb, have opted for thunder on Saturday and
Monday when CAPE values are higher but generally expecting showers
mainly offshore and generally east of the I-37 corridor.
Another front with the aforementioned trough late next week could
arrive as early as Friday or Saturday with the GFS pushing it
through sooner. Generally expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to
develop behind each front with drier and slightly cooler conditions
building in behind FROPA.
Temperatures Saturday will range from the mid 70s across the region
with near 80 degrees over the Brush Country and lows overnight
Saturday will be in the 50s to 60s. Sunday we warm back up as
afternoon highs return to the 80s and persist for the rest of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
VFR conditions and gusty southeast winds will continue through
mid-evening across south Texas. Low level flow will strengthen
over the area this evening into the overnight hours with a
southerly low level jet of 35-45 knots. Expect MVFR ceilings will
form over the coastal plains from 03-04Z and spread westward into
the Brush Country from 06-08Z Friday. Ceilings will lower to IFR
over the coastal plains from 06-08Z and over the Brush Country by
09Z. Patchy fog/LIFR ceilings will be possible over the inland
coastal plains with MVFR vsbys from 09-13Z. Low level wind shear
will be possible over the Brush Country with southerly low level
jet near 40 knots. Winds will become gusty by 15Z with improvement
to MVFR over the coastal plains and to VFR over the Brush
Country. Isolated streamer showers will be possible in the morning
over the Victoria Crossroads. Wind shift will move into the
western Brush Country by late afternoon. MVFR ceilings are
expected to hold over the coastal region north to the Victoria
Crossroads through the afternoon. Isolated convection may develop
by late afternoon to affect VCT area but expect most of the
activity will be with the front after 00Z Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
Moderate southeasterly flow this afternoon will strengthen to
moderate to strong tonight through Friday ahead of an approaching
cold front. Moderate to strong onshore flow will quickly shift to
the north and become strong (20 to 25 knots) early Saturday
morning behind the cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions
are expected to begin over the open coastal waters tonight and
continue through Saturday morning. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon will become scattered to numerous
late this evening into early Saturday morning. Flow will quickly
diminish during the day Saturday becoming weak to moderate and
transitioning back to onshore by late Saturday. Weak to moderate
onshore flow persists into the middle of next week becoming
easterly at times. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
Saturday morning will wane by the afternoon. Some isolated
thunderstorms are possible once again Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 72 86 61 75 / 20 30 70 10
Victoria 71 84 58 75 / 30 30 70 0
Laredo 71 89 62 80 / 0 10 40 0
Alice 70 90 61 78 / 20 20 70 10
Rockport 74 83 61 78 / 30 30 80 10
Cotulla 71 89 58 82 / 10 10 20 0
Kingsville 71 89 62 76 / 20 20 70 10
Navy Corpus 75 82 66 75 / 20 30 80 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232-
236-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
for GMZ250-255-270-275.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EMF
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...TMT/89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
.Discussion...
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU NOV 3 2022
Key Messages:
-Elevated Fire Weather Concerns Through Early Evening
-Isolated Shower/Storm Activity Late Tonight
-Rain Showers and Strong Thunderstorms Friday, Marginal Severe Risk
Discussion:
The main feature of interest is the long-wave trough that has made
landfall in the far southwest CONUS this morning, with the 100+ kt
H5 jet streak heading toward the Four Corners Region. The thermal
ridge axis has moved into the Western Ohio River Valley, but the
trough over the western CONUS has maintained brisk southwesterly
flow, continuing to provide WAA across the forecast the area. It
seems the subtropical jet managed to find a pocket of moisture and
has brought in a cloud deck this morning. This has kept temperatures
a few degrees cooler at least through the morning hours, compared to
the past two mornings across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
The steady WAA though should help to boost temperatures back into at
least the mid 70s for most of the area, with upper 70s south of
Interstate 70. With the thermal ridge now east of the forecast area
and H5 height falls entering northeast Kansas, we likely will not
see any substantial sources of subsidence to drastically clear the
sky cover (though may be more pockets of sunshine then this
morning). As of this afternoon, dCVA is strong along the nose of the
H5 jet from the Rockies into the Front Range. While not well defined
as of this afternoon, surface analysis does show surface
cyclogenesis in the front range in response to the land falling
trough. There is also a strengthening thermal boundary stalled over
central Nebraska, co-located in the area stronger H5 height falls
across the Central Plains. Eventually, this thermal boundary will
move east across the rest of the Plains and be the cold front that
becomes the focus for active weather on Friday morning and
afternoon.
Prior to the arrival of the cold front in the forecast area, we are
monitoring the potential for shower and thunderstorm activity late
this evening and into the overnight hours. H5 height falls continue
and somewhat intensify later this evening, and low-level pre-frontal
troughing will increase convergence from Emporia through KC to
Trenton, MO. 12z CAM guidance from this morning does develop
scattered showers and storms through this area of convergence after
04z this evening. The H5 jet streak will be ejecting out of the Four
Corners Region around this time, and will begin to lift the deep
trough toward the Front Range and High Plains. This will increase
deep layer shear across much of the warm-sector through this evening
and overnight , with 0-6km bulk values of 50+ kts. The question
though will be how much instability develops. 12z HREF mean CAPE
heading into the overnight hours along this area of forcing is
around 950-1000 J/kg, with the max among its members only around
1300 J/kg. With the current cloud cover across the region that the
CAMs have been slow to pick up on, would expect to remain on the
lower end of the MLCAPE. Most model soundings are also showing a
strong CAP due to an inversion layer between 875mb and 825mb. The
overall weak instability will likely make it hard to initiate a
robust updraft, as the pre-frontal troughing likely will not provide
enough lift to break through this cap. Any updraft will be based
above 825mb. If an updraft is able to punch through, the higher
shear may be able to organize it, and could support a marginal
severe hail threat. 700-500mb lapse rates appear steep in in RAP and
HRRR soundings through this evening. But as mentioned before,
satellite trends are showing a lot more moisture than what the CAMs
this morning had indicated, so the thermodynamic profiles may not be
well represented in these solutions. The SWODY1 marginal risk across
western and northwestern portions of the forecast area captures this
conditional threat on an isolated updraft being able to tap into the
shear.
Attention then turns to Friday morning through late afternoon. The
stronger CVA moves with the jet streak into the High Plains and
Central Plains. As this happens, the H5 trough continues to lift
toward the region, and the dCVA remains in phase with the surface
cyclone to promote continued deepening of the feature. WAA ahead of
this along with CAA back toward the Nebraska Sandhills will
strengthen the cold front across the region. Surface winds back
quite a bit turning more south-southeast for most of the forecast
area, thus opening the Gulf back up and providing increasing
moisture transport ahead of the cold front. There is potential for
severe thunderstorms, but before exploring those details will
discuss the QPF. The isolated to scattered storms early Friday
morning will likely not have the richest moisture supply to work
with, but a stronger storm could produce up to around a tenth of an
inch. The main play for QPF will be along the cold front later in
the afternoon and early evening. As the surface cold front
approaches KC metro and areas eastward, the 850-300mb flow is
largely parallel to the initiating boundary. Therefore, expecting
numerous updrafts to train along the front, providing moderate
rainfall for several hours at any given point in the vicinity of the
boundary. There continues to be a subtle downward trend in QPF
across most of the forecast area. Currently, the heaviest band of
QPF basically along the I-35 corridor from near Emporia to the KC
metro, and extends to roughly south of Kirksville. GEFS and other
ensemble means around 2 inches along this line, with about 1 to 1.5
inches on either side of the line, and around 1 inch in the far
northwest and far southeast extents of the forecast area. 12z
GFS/ECMWF deterministic guidance remains a bit higher, with amounts
around 2.5 to 2.75 inches in this heaviest band. The NAM still
remains the wettest of the deterministic solutions, trying to paint
a band of 2.75+ inches in northern Missouri, with a strong dry slot
in behind it. The 12z NAM though has come into better agreement with
the GFS and ECMWF with respect to the track of the trough axis,
matching the faster propagation of the GFS and ECMWF. With the
antecedent dry conditions across most of the forecast area, hydro
flooding concerns will be limited. Only developed urbanized areas
would see flooding with training storms along the boundary. In
addition, the dry conditions may also limit the moisture supply, and
keep the overall QPF closer to where the ensemble means are
currently at. As for the severe threat, the theta-e advection will
continue to increase the moisture supply throughout the warm sector,
and saturate most of the column. By 10-11z timeframe, the cold front
should be approaching the door step of our Kansas Counties. Weak
convergence associated with the overnight pre-frontal troughing may
still be around out to about Hwy. 63. While there will be isentropic
ascent supporting stratiform cloud cover and showers, there may be
enough mechanical forcing to support scattered convection during the
morning hours. The instability still remains in question, but, deep
layer shear will still be present south of Hwy. 136. Therefore, with
increased convergence, will be looking at potential for a few
isolated thunderstorms capable of becoming severe. Early in the
morning will be looking primarily at a hail threat with stronger
updrafts. However as the morning progresses and theta-e advection
continues, parcels will be able to initiate closer to the surface.
With the higher moisture content, precipitation loading may lead to
favorable to conditions for damaging winds associated with
thunderstorms. Between 10z-18z, there is a conditional threat for
thunderstorms to produce weak and brief tornadoes, mainly south of
Hwy 36. Low-level hodographs ahead of the cold front have moderately
strong turning, resulting in 0-1km SRH above 250 m^2/s^2. Given the
strength of the jet streak, storms could be moving at a decent pace,
leading to low-level storm-relative inflow between 25-30 knots. The
one factor that is greatly hindering the tornado threat is the CAPE,
with values in the 0-3km layer nearly reaching 40 J/kg. Overall, for
ML and SB parcels, the CAPE profile is very thin. Therefore, steady
updrafts likely will not last long, as the strong storm-relative
flow will not be able to ingest much into it. The better tornado
environment will be well south into the ArkLaTex region. As the
strong H5 jet streak remains over head in Kansas and Missouri , the
overall hodograph remains quite long, which could keep stronger
storms going for a decent distance though through a marginal
thermodynamic environment. However, as coverage of storms increase
and the cold front continues to propagate eastward, storms will
likely congeal into a QLCS mode along the front. The convection
along the line will continue to pose a threat mainly for severe
winds, as the flow aloft will be around 50 to 60 knots, and the
precipitation may be able to pull that momentum downward. The 0-3km
bulk shear vector will be mostly parallel the boundary, and likely
would remain parallel to a QLCS with the boundary. Based on current
CAM solutions, it does not look favorable to achieve a 30 kt line
normal bulk shear vector. Therefore, will not be anticipating
prolific mesovortex generation along any line of thunderstorms with
the boundary, and subsequently the QLCS tornado threat is very low.
Will need to monitor storm-scale modifications though and watch the
orientation of the line as it evolves.
The Weekend and Beyond:
After the passage of the cold front, the parent trough will continue
to lift into the Great Lakes Region. There will be a couple of
closed low systems moving across the Canadian Prairie Provinces that
will maintain brisk mid-level zonal flow across Kansas and Missouri
for the weekend providing seasonable temperatures. For the start of
next week, deterministic GFS and ECMWF have another strong PV
anomaly developing a deep H5 trough over the west coast, which
creates southwesterly flow across the Plains and Midwest through
Wednesday. This again will push an anomalously warm and moist
airmass through the forecast area, and brings more rain shower and
thunderstorm potential. Daily afternoon high temperatures could
reach 15 to 20 degrees above normal for the early to middle parts of
November. Depending on the propagation speed of the trough in the
west, one of the days next week may feed a favorable mesoscale
environment for stronger storms. There is a decent amount of spread
in ensemble solutions through the the middle of next week though
with respect to precipitation amounts, as well as the best axis of
instability.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT THU NOV 3 2022
VFR conditions through 08Z tonight with gusty south-southwest
winds. Thereafter, expect isolated to scatted thunderstorms to
develop as cold front works south. TAFs focus on main batch of
rain, which will largely be characterized by low MVFR to IFR
ceilings and visibility. Expect conditions to improve from west to
east as rain moves out of the area on Friday evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...Krull
Aviation...BT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
654 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
Through Saturday...
[Through Tonight]
Breezy conditions today will continue tonight and into Friday thanks
to a tight surface pressure gradient found ahead of a deepening
center of low pressure approaching from the west. Winds will come
down some late this evening as the mixed layer stabilizes and the
low level jet subsides a bit overnight, though sustained winds at
the surface will be moving at around 15 mph through most of night.
The low level jet centering itself over the area tonight could
provide us with some 20+ mph gusts overnight. However, this banks on
whether we`re able to mix down some of the higher winds found just
off of the surface or if we`ll simply be too stable. Simulated
soundings from the HRRR and RAP suggest that gusts likely won`t be
frequent, but the occasional gust to 20-25 mph is certainly
possible. It appears that the best shot for seeing gusty conditions
overnight would be in the few hours leading up to daybreak when high-
res guidance suggests that we could actually see some gradual
warming with ample low level warm air advection taking place.
Additionally, an influx of low level moisture riding along the LLJ
will advect cloudy skies into the area beginning this evening in the
western CWA and shifting eastward tonight.
Doom
[Friday-Saturday]
Main concerns:
* Strong to potentially damaging non-thunderstorm wind gusts late
tonight and Saturday
* Showers and isolated to widely scattered embedded thunderstorms
Friday-Friday night and showers ending by mid day Saturday
A classic deepening fall storm is the main focus, with the big
story being the strong to potentially damaging winds behind the
system cold front on Saturday. The strong warm advection regime of
the burgeoning cyclone will yield varying coverage of showers, as
well as isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms starting on
Friday. The main timeframe of concern for the damaging wind
potential is pre-dawn Saturday through mid to late Saturday
afternoon, with explicit forecast of wind gusts up to 50 mph and
distinct potential for 55-65 mph gusts during the day on Saturday
in the higher end model scenarios. Depending on how effective
mixing is on Friday night and/or potential for low topped
convection mix down stronger winds, 45-50+ mph wind gusts could
start as early as late Friday evening into the overnight.
Friday will again be unseasonably mild and breezy as a warm front
drapes across the region, extending northeast from elongated low
pressure trough from the southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.
Magnitude of warm advection from robust low level jet implies good
isentropic ascent (in addition to modest large scale ascent),
along with moisture advection sufficient to force blossoming of
scattered low topped convection Friday morning. Steepened lapse
rates could support isolated to widely scattered embedded
t-storms, particularly near and northwest of I-55 into the early
to perhaps mid afternoon. The very mild start to the day and
southerly winds gusting up to 30-35 mph, strongest near and south
of I-80, supports highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and spotty mid
70s readings southwest 1/3 of CWA.
As the warm front surges north into Friday evening, there may be a
lull in the showers through early to mid evening, followed by a
rapid increase late evening overnight. This will be in response to
very strong 500 mb short-wave and associated PVA and upper jet
assistance, as well as intense low level jet, and associated
moisture advection and isentropic ascent. In addition to the
increasing shower coverage and some embedded t-storms, the
southerly winds will also be ramping up as the deepening surface
low ejects north-northeastward and low level jet intensifies (with
a lowering base of the LLJ as well). There`s variance in the
magnitude of the low level winds among the model solutions, but a
combo of pressure falls, effective enough mixing into the base of
the LLJ, and/or low topped convection on the leading edge of the
dry slot punch could result in stronger than official forecast
35-40 mph southerly gusts in the late evening and overnight hours.
As alluded to earlier, prime time so to speak will be during the
day on Saturday as the low deepens to around 985 mb over north-
central Wisconsin by mid day Saturday. Behind the strong system
cold front, and particularly after showers end, strong pressure
rises and a very robust low level wind field could yield at least
higher end advisory gusts in the 50-55 mph range with steepening
low level lapse rates from cold advection during the day on Saturday
Noting that the higher end GFS scenario features BUFKIT momentum
transfer pointing toward a period of southwesterly gusts in 55-65
mph range from the late morning through mid afternoon. In
addition, the 51 member 12z EPS indicates 50+ mph wind gust mean
for parts of the area, and some low probabilities of 50+ kt (58
mph+) gusts. However, given tendency for some "ramp down" prior to
these events and also variance between top end potential wind
gust magnitude on the operational models, did not issue any wind
headlines today. However, am anticipating needing at least a Wind
Advisory, and tonight`s midnight shift may need to consider a High
Wind Watch for portions of the area.
Castro
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
Saturday Night through Thursday...
Conditions quiet down for a few days early next week following this
weekend`s storm system. Saturday night, the cold front, and
associated rainfall, will be well off to our east and higher
pressure will be advancing into the area. Dry air advection aloft
will drive the cloud cover away Saturday evening and night leading
to sunny skies to end our weekend on Sunday. A tight surface
pressure gradient between the departing Low and approaching High, as
well as continued accelerated flow in the low levels, will keep the
breezy conditions around through Sunday. However, winds will not be
nearly as strong as what`s forecast through the day on Saturday, but
20+ mph gusts can be expected, especially through the first half of
Sunday.
Beginning Sunday night, the jet stream lifts to our north with the
strengthening of an upper level High centered over the Southeast.
This will keep conditions nice and quiet through the first couple of
days of the next workweek. Sunny skies on Monday will see a few more
clouds on Tuesday with some low level moisture being pulled in.
Through the middle of next week, a center of low pressure and
associated cold front will be strengthening out in the Plains. While
this front isn`t slated to move across the area until early next
weekend, some guidance suggests that we could see a few light
showers form along the quasi-stationary, loosely-organized warm
front. We could see some of these showers arrive as early as late
Wednesday but the better chances arrive late Thursday into next
Friday.
Doom
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 350 PM CDT THU Nov 3 2022
Unseasonable warmth will continue through Friday and, while
temperatures today at Chicago and Rockford fell just short of the
daily records, Friday will see another shot at breaking some
temperature records. Below is a listing of Chicago`s and
Rockford`s daily record high maximum and record high minimum
temperatures for November 4th, along with the currently forecast
high and low temperatures at these climate sites...
November 4
Record High Maximum Record High Minimum Forecast High/Low
-----------------------------------------------------------
Chicago: 74 (1978/2020) 59 (1975) 70/59
Rockford: 74 (1978) 56 (2015) 70/59
Ogorek/Ratzer
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Southerly winds tonight, will occasionally gust to around 20kt,
particularly mid-late this evening as flow just off the deck
starts ramping up. Low level jet should result in LLWS threat
overnight into early Friday morning with winds within 2kft of the
sfc progged to increase to around 50kt. As temps warm Friday
morning, could see a couple hours with gusts near, to potentially
over 30kt at times as we begin to mix into the lingering higher
winds off the deck associated with the dissipating low level jet.
Scattered SHRA will affect the terminals from late morning through
mid afternoon. Could be a couple of isolated TSRA around, but
coverage should be limited. The rain should result in some modest
stabilization of the boundary layer, likely limiting frequency
and/or magnitude of southerly wind gusts, at least temporarily.
An even stronger low level jet, likely reaching 60kt by mid to
late Friday evening will again result in an increased risk of
LLWS, despite southerly winds remaining elevated and likely
somewhat gusty Friday evening. It is plausible that winds could
increase above what is in the TAFs later Friday evening as low
level jet strengthens, but confidence isn`t high enough at this
distance to specifically include stronger winds. Confidence is
higher in stronger winds/gusts occurring just beyond the end of
this TAF cycle.
- Izzi
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 4 AM Friday.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
906 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
Small update this evening to push PoPs back closer to midnight for
most areas, especially along and east of the I-27 corridor.
Latest surface analysis shows a respectable dryline retreating
along a Morton to Tulia line with a Pacific cold front from
Texline southwest to near Roswell. Capping woes remain
considerable as shown by 00z soundings from AMA and MAF, although
this will change in the coming hours as height falls draw closer
and begin cooling the column.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
I will preface this discussion with... There remains a lot of
uncertainty on when or if storms will happen tonight...
Early afternoon mid-level water vapor imagery showed an upper low
moving into the Four-corners region. At the surface, moisture
continues to advect into our region with dewpoint values in the
upper 50s off the Caprock and values nearing 50F on the Caprock as
shown on the West Texas Mesonet. As of 1:30 PM, a dryline exists
near the TX/NM line. As the upper-low pushes east, the surface low
in southeast Colorado will begin to strengthen, resulting in surface
winds increasing and the dryline sharpening. This will push the
dryline towards I-27/US-87 through this afternoon. If storms do
form, they will develop late this evening near the dryline. This
will most likely be along or just east of I-27/US-87. With MUCAPE
values between 1000 and 1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear around 60
kt, these storms may initially be organized but should form into a
line pretty quickly. The main threat with storms will be winds
and hail initially and then will transition to more of a wind
event as it moves east with 80-90 kt mid-level winds, potentially
resulting in wind gusts up to 70 mph at the surface. Any storm
that does form will most likely be out of the area around 8 AM in
the morning. Two concerns that would lead to storms not developing
are 1: not enough convergence/lift and 2:a strong inversion
holding.
The upper-low will move near the area late tomorrow morning,
bringing increased large-scale ascent to the forecast area and
pushing a cold front to the east. This could result in additional
light shower (and thunderstorm?) development tomorrow afternoon over
the South Plains. This development depends on the position of the
low, as it will determine the location of the best lift and jet
dynamics. If the HRRR and somewhat RAP are right; the low will be
closed and near our northwest corner tomorrow morning. If this
occurs, chances of precip or virga showers will increase and could
bring the potential for wind gusts up to 70 mph as winds aloft
will be 90-100 kt. If the low opens and goes to our north, our
area could still see precipitation near a quasi-triple point over
the TX Panhandle, but this would keep activity over the southern
Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. Any activity that
develops should be out of the region by late evening.
In addition to the possible convective activity, the pressure
gradient will tighten as the upper low nears the area tomorrow
morning. This will result in westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph over
the area gusting up to 45 mph at times, especially over the South
Plains and Rolling Plains. Gusty winds will bring the potential
of blowing dust to the South Plains. GKendrick
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
By Friday night, the aforementioned low will continue to move off to
the northeast away from the forecast area. This will allow skies to
clear and wind speeds to gradually diminish Friday night. With the
cooler airmass in place behind the cold front overnight low
temperatures Saturday morning will be on the chilly side although
with winds remaining slightly elevated they will remain a bit warmer
than otherwise expected mainly in the 30s. With general upper-level
troughing remaining over the forecast area Saturday, lee surface
troughing will also remain fairly strong leading to another breezy
day on Saturday with temperatures right around normal for this
time of year under mostly sunny skies. The upper-level pattern
will transition to nearly zonal on Sunday as several systems
traverse Canada. The low over the Canadian Prairies may send a
back door cold front into the forecast area late Sunday or early
Monday. This front should be fairly weak though and still allow
temperatures to climb slightly above normal into the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Another upper-level trough will drop into the western
U.S. on Monday and this will transition the forecast area back to
southwesterly flow aloft. This will allow for more robust moisture
advection back into the area around the middle of next week which
may lead to some fog/low stratus once again in the mornings which
will help to lower afternoon high temperatures just a touch. The
orientation and timing of this trough remains in question for
middle to late next week which will have an impact on IF any
precipitation chances return to the Southern Plains. /WI
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
Main aviation impacts will be two fold, the first being occasional
MVFR CIGs toward midnight at LBB and PVW ahead of FROPA and
westerly winds around 10Z. This front is more likely to focus some
TS near CDS late tonight, some of which could be severe. By
mid/late morning, west winds will become strongest at LBB where
frequent gusts over 30 knots are likely through the afternoon.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...93
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...93
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
947 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
Milder temps expected across the Midsouth tonight, due to
gradually tightening low level pressure gradient and increased
mixing.
00Z HRRR continues to depict high gust potential late Friday
evening, with 40 to 50 mph gust potential accompanied sustained
winds of 20 to 25 mph. As is often the case with late autumn
closed lows and weak instability, greatest wind impacts may occur
prior to the arrival of showers and thunderstorms.
PWB
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
Another spectacular day across the Mid-South. GOES east visible
satellite is detecting clear skies across the Mid-South at this
hour. Temperatures are quite mild and range from the mid to upper
70s areawide. GOES Water Vapor Satellite shows a unusually deep
trough over the Desert Southwest with a large ridge enveloping
everything east of the Rockies.
The aforementioned trough will make a quick march across the
southern U.S. over the next 24 to 36 hours and eject into the
Central Plains by tomorrow night. At the surface, a low will
deepen quickly from Arklatex to north Central Missouri through
this same period. This will help push a cold front across the
south and into the Mid-South late Friday night into Saturday
afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten
significantly and winds at the surface will respond accordingly.
Went ahead and issued a wind advisory for a good portion of the
Mid-South Friday night into Saturday morning. Sustained winds will
hover around 25 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph. Additional
momentum could be mixed down with the cold front as it swings
through the region overnight and taps into a 60 knot low level
jet.
With limited instability in place ahead of FROPA, the main impact
will be gusty gradient winds. Power outages will likely be the
main impact, especially in the metro areas where power lines are
exposed. Will add this threat to the HWO with mention of power
outages.
The majority of the forecast area will see a good shot of rainfall
with this system. Most areas will see around an inch, with areas
further west seeing up to 2 inches of total rainfall through
Saturday afternoon.
The cold front will move out rather quickly on Sunday with dry
conditions and mild temperatures returning by the afternoon hours.
Expect highs in the low to mid 70s. The previous front will
quickly lift back north as a warm front on Monday. This will bring
a slight chance of showers to the Mid-South, but the main feature
will be increased humidity. In fact, high humidity will be the
main story next week. Dewpoints will climb into the mid to upper
60s each day as we remain entrenched under a highly anomalous
ridge. Highs will remain in the 70s with lows in the 50s to lower
60s each day.
The pattern looks to remain stagnant and warm through the end of
next week. Models are hinting at another front next weekend, but
timing remains mixed amongst synoptic models.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds
will be from the south at around 5 knots tonight before increasing
to 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts Friday. Some periods of LLWS
are possible overnight into early Friday morning.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from midnight Friday night to 7 AM CDT Saturday
for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Wind Advisory from midnight Friday night to 7 AM CDT Saturday
for MOZ113-115.
MS...Wind Advisory from midnight Friday night to 7 AM CDT Saturday
for MSZ001-007-010.
TN...Wind Advisory from midnight Friday night to 7 AM CDT Saturday
for TNZ001>003-019-020-048>051-088-089.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ARS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1058 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue moving southeast into the Western
Atlantic through tonight. The high pressure area will remain in
the Western Atlantic through Sunday. A cold front approaches
from the west Monday and passes through late Monday into Monday
night. High pressure builds in from the north Tuesday and moves
offshore Wednesday. A low begins to approach from the south for
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Minor adjustments needed to temperatures due to radiational
cooling. Some stratus may be developing across southeast
portions of the forecast area as KFOK is reporting some low
clouds, but it is still mostly cloudy there.
With high pressure centered along the coast winds have become
near calm across much of the area under clear skies. The high
slides east and a weak return flow sets up late tonight, with
weak low level warm advection. Surface temperatures are still
expected to fall through the night, however, late tonight the
drop may stop, and temperatures may even rise a degree or two
before sunrise. With a steep low level inversion developing
still expecting fog to develop, along with patchy.
A weak mid level trough moves into the region tonight. At the
surface, high pressure moves farther out into the Atlantic. No
rain is expected. Low level winds transition to more southerly
but light flow under 10 kts and will present weak warm and moist
air advection. Winds on land become nearly calm. Models have
850mb temperatures slightly increasing. An environment will be
setting up that will favor fog development. Southerly flow and
cooling temperatures tonight will make for low level saturation
to take place more easily. Dewpoints slightly increase and
temperatures cool to the dewpoint, leading to radiational fog.
The RAP and HRRR models are indicating this fog to develop. The
NAM12 also indicates this fog development in BUFKIT as well as with
evidence of some very light moisture patches evident on their
precipitation forecasts being a signal with supersaturation. Some of
the MOS has started to pick up with the fog forecast as well but not
as extensive or as long in duration as some of the aforementioned
raw model data has indicated.
New forecast has more fog than previously, patchy fog starting
after 4Z, then eventually spreading and thickening into larger
areas of fog after 6Z. Some of the fog could be dense at times
but difficult to pinpoint the extent and duration of any dense
fog at this time.
Used MAV/MET blend for temperatures tonight. Went an extra
degree lower for locations that typically have more radiational
cooling. Vast range of min temperatures forecast, from upper 30s
to lower 40s in rural and outlying areas to low to mid 50s
within NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
In the mid levels, ridging takes place Friday through Friday
night with height rises. At the surface, high pressure continues
to move slowly out into the Atlantic, allowing for southerly
low level flow to continue across the local region. No rain is
expected.
Not much significant change with model projections of 850mb
temperatures for Friday compared to the previous day. Some more
cirrus clouds are expected for Friday into Friday night.
Fog lasts into Friday morning by 13-14Z. The fog burns off in
the late morning. The winds will be relatively higher than the
previous day and will allow for greater vertical mixing. This
will moderate temperatures with more marine influence across
coastal sections. Expecting similar high temperatures to the
previous day. NBM 50th percentile used for the forecast high
temperatures with highs mostly in the upper 60s to near 70.
Highs forecast are more in the mid 60s for Eastern Long Island.
For Friday night, with some more cirrus clouds moving in and
relatively a little higher onshore flow will make for relatively
warmer lows compared to the previous night. Used MAV/MET/NBM blend
for forecast low temperatures and these will convey a less vast
range of values from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
For Friday night, expecting another period of fog formation with
patchy to larger areas of coverage, some of which again could
be dense. More uncertainty as to whether there will be more low
level stratus moving in or fog formation.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A western Atlantic ridge will remain from near the Canadian
Maritimes to off the southern coast Saturday through Sunday. The
ridge will weaken and drift eastward Sunday night through
Monday night as an upper low passes well to the north, across
Canada. Ridging builds back into the eastern coast Tuesday
through Wednesday night, and weakens Thursday as low pressure
approaches from the south. With a south to southwest flow
persisting around the surface high Saturday through Monday an
unusually warm and humid airmass for this time of year will
remain in place. In fact, with the warm airmass record highs are
possible Saturday through Monday, with record high low
temperatures also possible. See the climate section for the
current records. With both daytime highs and night lows running
10 to as much as 15 degrees above normal, have used the NBM 75th
percentile for highs which increased inland temperatures a
couple of degrees, and used the NBM guidance for lows. Currently
the timing of a cold front is slightly quicker than the
previous forecast, possibly moving through late Monday into
Monday night. The timing of this front will have an impact to
temperatures Monday, and with a quicker passage record highs may
not be reached. Also, there will be little moisture with the
front, and the global guidance does dry up the moistures as the
front moves farther east into the forecast area. So have
maintained probabilities only across the western sections of the
area at this time, using the NBM with slight adjustments.
Temperatures briefly return to near normal for Tuesday into
Wednesday, and begin to rise for Thursday. Tuesday through
Thursday used the NBM guidance for highs and lows.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will be over the area through the period.
VFR before 06Z. There will likely be some fog and/or low
stratus development late tonight with MVFR to IFR cond through
the Fri AM push. In fact, KFOK was reporting FEW at 500 ft as of
around 03Z, which may be a sign of developing stratus. Cannot
rule out LIFR or lower at times especially from about 10Z-13Z.
Light and variable winds tonight. S flow 5-10 kt late
AM/afternoon after fog and low stratus burn off, turning SE late
day.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely late tonight and into Fri morning for
lowering flight categories with potential fog and/or low
stratus.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday afternoon...VFR.
.Friday night and Saturday morning...IFR to LIFR possible with
fog and low stratus redevelopment.
.Saturday night and Sunday morning...MVFR likely, IFR possible
with fog and low stratus.
.Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time.
With a relatively weak pressure gradient across the waters,
conditions on all local waters are forecast to remain well below
SCA thresholds.
High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic Saturday
into Sunday, then drift east Monday as a cold front moves into
the forecast waters late Monday into Monday night. Winds and
seas remain below SCA levels Saturday and Sunday, then with the
persistent and long fetch southerly flow Saturday through Sunday
night, ocean seas likely build to SCA levels by Sunday evening
and remain elevated into Monday night, and possibly into Tuesday.
Winds shift to northwest Monday night with the passage of a cold
front.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Thursday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record warmth is possible this weekend into early next week. Here
are the current record highs, and record high lows, for
Saturday November 5 through Monday November 7.
Record highs for November 5
EWR 77/1959
BDR 72/1961
NYC 78/1961
LGA 74/2005
JFK 75/1975
ISP *70/2015
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
Record highs for November 6
EWR 80/1948
BDR 71/2015
NYC *74/2015
LGA 75/2015
JFK 75/2015
ISP 69/2015
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
Record highs for November 7
EWR 78/1938
BDR 69/2020
NYC 78/1938
LGA 76/2020
JFK 73/2020
ISP 74/2020
Record high lows for November 5
EWR *61/1961
BDR *59/1961
NYC *63/1938
LGA *61/1916
JFK *60/1984
ISP *56/1988
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
Record high lows for November 6
EWR *64/2015
BDR *62/2015
NYC *66/2015
LGA *65/2015
JFK *62/2015
ISP *62/2015
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
Record high lows for November 7
EWR *58/2008
BDR *58/2008
NYC *63/1938
LGA *58/2008
JFK *59/2008
ISP *57/2008
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/JP/MET
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
CLIMATE...