Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/03/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
600 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022 .UPDATE...Winds have decreased across much of the region, and where the High Wind Warnings were in place. With the wind dropping and remaining below warning levels, the High Wind Warning was allowed to expire. With the lighter winds also being observed in eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle, coupled with slowing increasing humidity values, the Red Flag Warning was also allowed to expire. Current Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect. .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022 All models continue to show a significant pattern change beginning tonight and Thursday as a strong cold front and associated Pacific upper level trough pushing across the region beginning late this evening. The cloud shield ahead of the system is just starting to push into central Wyoming with snowfall being reported across northern Utah and far western Wyoming at this hour. Mild temperatures will continue for the next few hours with temperatures currently in the 60s across most of southeast Wyoming, with low to mid 70s further east into western Nebraska. Skies will gradually become mostly cloudy from northwest to southeast this evening as the upper level trough gradually moves east across the four corners region. Current model trends show rain/snow mix beginning across Carbon County sometime late this evening. This is a few hours later than previous models suggested, but remains pretty much on track for areas west of I-25. Any rainfall should quickly change to snow overnight and into early Thursday morning with accumulating snow expected after midnight for Carbon, northern Albany, and Converse counties. Slick roadways look like a good bet mainly due to black ice as the colder air moves into the area, but some snow covered roadways are expected as well, especially above 6500 feet. Winter Weather Advisories look good in these areas, but the Laramie Valley may struggle with an unfavorable wind direction, both at the surface and aloft through most of the event. Models then show the system stalling a little as the first jet streak lifts northeast and the upper level trough attempts to close off near the four corners region. However, do not expect this evolution to significantly affect the current forecast since the upstream kicker will be quick to move into the Pacific NW late on Thursday. As the storm stalls early Thursday, snow will likely be delayed by several hours east of the I-25 corridor and further south near Laramie and Cheyenne. Once the more significant 140 knot jet and associated vort max rapidly lift north ahead of the main system Thursday afternoon and evening, precipitation is expected to increase in coverage and intensity. With the NAMNEST and HRRR starting to show this scenario with the potential for some moderate snowfall, continued to increase POP along and east of the I-25 corridor. With the colder air already in place, precipitation may begin as all snow for areas around 5000 to 6000 feet of elevation. Therefore, the timing of the onset of snow will be key in determining if the Winter Weather Advisories need to be extended eastward. Models continue to show decent low level frontogenesis lingering across the mountains and southern high plains along with potent upper level diffluence associated with the upper level jet Thursday afternoon and evening. Since the timing of the bulk of the snow is questionable further south and east, will hold off on extending Winter Weather Advisories towards Cheyenne, Kimball, and Scottsbluff area. Generally, expect 1 to 3 inches of snow along and east of the I-25 corridor with locally higher amounts of 4 to 5 inches possible along the Cheyenne Ridge or near the Laramie Range. Upper level trough will accelerate southeast across New Mexico and northern Texas on Friday with snow ending early Friday morning. In fact, expect clearing skies by sunrise Friday with cold temperatures in the 20s and 30s. Upstream kicker across the Pac NW will quickly move into Wyoming Friday with models showing a strong 130 knot anticyclonic jet pushing into the state. This is a classic high wind pattern for the state and we will talk about it in more detail below (long term discussion). Strong westerly winds will start increasing as early as Friday afternoon across the Wind Prone areas, so bumped wind gusts up towards 50 knots in some areas. Will have to monitor the state of the snowpack by this time since blowing snow is a possibility between Laramie and Rawlins. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 244 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Main story in the long term forecast focuses on the high wind event progged for this weekend, with the 500mb flow pattern transitioning towards a northwesterly to westerly winds and tightening height contours. Models have been consistent over the last few runs with strong subsidence developing along the 250mb jet pushing to the southeast from the Pacific Northwest, and positioning the right exit region of the across Wyoming and much of the High Plains. Omega fields are in agreement with this feature, with deep negative values and MSLP gradients tightening just along the spin of the Laramie Range and persisting through 06z Sunday. In addition, both in-house model guidance and the NBM v4.1 Probability of Exceeding 56kts indicating a high likelihood of headline worthy winds beginning late Friday night and easing by the evening hours on Saturday. Lastly, CAG-CPR height gradients have been trending upwards, with 82 to 101 meters from Friday night through Saturday night. All in all, downsloping wind storms are becoming much more evident with all the atmospheric conditions coming into alignment. Therefore, confidence is fairly high that high wind headlines will be needed with the upcoming forecast packages. In spite of the strong winds, weekend temperatures are expected to be fairly pleasant as they begin to rebound from the freezing temperatures experiences the days prior to the low to mid-50s for areas east of the Laramie Range attributed to the downsloping component from the strong westerly flow and cooler temperatures off to the west. Unfortunately, due to the strong winds, the wind chill will feel much different and the temperature felt will be in the high 30s to low 40s. Next chance for widespread precipitation is progged for midweek, with an upper level low developing off the Pacific Northwest and pushing eastward, resulting in a trough axis digging southeasterly through the CWA. Main concern with this system is if the moisture maybe too far eastward into central Nebraska, keeping precipitation totals on the lower end. Otherwise, most precipitation chances remain confined to the western fringes of the of the CWA from late weekend through Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 545 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Wintry weather will begin to move into the area tonight and continue through the TAF period. KRWL could see a rain/snow mix by 04Z or 05Z tonight with it quickly changing to all snow by 06Z. Expect IFR conditions due to low CIGs and poor visibility in snow. CIGs will begin to lower through the morning hours for KLAR and KCYS with VCSH likely. KLAR will likely see a more steady snow by the afternoon hours, and KCYS by the evening hours. During these times, flight conditions will likely drop to IFR. Western Nebraska terminals will likely be spared of any winter weather for this TAF period, but lowering CIGs and some scattered showers are likely. Snow will be possible for western Nebraska terminals Thursday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 137 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Red Flag/critical fire weather conditions have been spotty so far this afternoon with solid criteria across zones 417, 434, and 433 (Niobrara Co, Goshen Co, and the far northern NE panhandle). Elsewhere, winds have been lacking so far along with RHs between 15 to 18 percent. Will keep the Red Flag Warning going until 6 PM since conditions are close enough. Otherwise, much colder temperatures, higher humidities, and widespread snow moves into the region starting late this evening. Cold temperatures will continue through Friday before strong winds develop during the weekend. Minimal fire weather concerns anticipated tonight through early next week with a light surface snow pack expected. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ104-105-109>111-113-115-116. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ112-114. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AW SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...SF FIRE WEATHER...TJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1029 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis depict a fairly amplified pattern is in place over the CONUS, with a strong longwave trough west of the Rockies, and a ridge out east. At the surface, low pressure extends from south-central Canada through the central plains, with strong south to south-southwest winds ongoing in southwest KS. These winds will persist through the short term period, and combine with clear skies to result in a warm fall day across our area, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Later tonight, cloud cover will begin to spread north as forcing for ascent increases ahead of the approaching upper level trough, and skies will likely be mostly cloudy for all areas by sunrise Thursday. Given these poor radiational cooling conditions, lows are only expected to drop into the low to mid 50s. Daytime Thursday, continued cloudy skies will help limit solar insolation, resulting in temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 70s despite strong warm southerly flow. Forecast attention then shifts to the potential for severe thunderstorms Thursday evening through the overnight period. Unfortunately, significant uncertainty remains regarding this event, with a large spread in spatiotemporal details amongst guidance. As the aforementioned strong upper level, positively-tilted trough begins to emerge from the Intermountain West, thunderstorm initiation is possible along a sharpening dryling extending from southwest KS southward into portions of western OK and the eastern TX panhandle during the 00-06Z Friday time frame. However, how far north thunderstorms can initiate is just one source of uncertainty. Given upper level flow will be nearly parallel to the isovorts over southwest KS, PVA will be limited, which will act against thunderstorms in our area. This scenario is supported by multiple 12Z CAMs as well as the 12Z NAM, however the 12Z deterministic ECMWF/GFS as well as the 12Z HRRR/HiRes FV3 depict thunderstorms will develop along the dryline in our area. Current thinking is any thunderstorm development will not occur until the cold front that will be diving south overtakes the dryline, although thunderstorms along the dryline remain possible. The next source of uncertainty with this event surrounds the location of the dryline. Given mostly cloudy skies, boundary layer mixing, which drives dryline propagation, will be shunted. This throws into question how far east the dryline will mix before retreating westward after sunset. Of the guidance members that depict dryline initiation, they are nearly evenly split between initiation along a Hays-Dodge City-Liberal line and a Larned- Greensburg-Ashland line. While the tendency with synoptic features would be to favor the ECMWF, which initiates thunderstorms along the former line, historical trends suggest the dryline will set up closer to the latter, and this is indeed the current forecast. All of this said, the official forecast calls for dryline initiation to fail until it is overrun by the cold front. Once this happens, thunderstorms will favor roughly the eastern third of our area. Accordingly, pops were limited to the chance category (25-54%) for the whole event, while slight chance pops (15-24%) were maintained west of Dodge City to account for the substantial uncertainty. If dryline thunderstorms can form over our area, they will pose a severe threat. At least 500-1000 J/Kg of CAPE will coincide with 50-70 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, which would be sufficient for storm organization. In addition, strong low level flow will contribute to 200-300 m2/s2 of 0-1 SRH, supporting some tornado threat. However, linear/messy storm mode will likely limit hazards to hail and wind. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Elevated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the long term period across southwest KS as the strong upper trough ejects into the High Plains, however this is only strongly supported by the 12Z HRRR/3kmNAM, and to a lesser extent the 12Z deterministic ECMWF/GFS. If this scenario unfolds, thunderstorms will be favored across the far east zones, while light rain/snow mix will be possible near Syracuse and surrounding areas. Otherwise, strong north winds Friday morning will usher in much cooler temperatures while gradually relaxing during the day as surface high pressure builds into the central plains. As a result, afternoon highs will only be in the mid 40s to low 50s. By the weekend, the strong upper level low will have departed the High Plains for the Midwest, allowing winds to regain a southerly component, skies to clear from west to east, and temperatures to rebound rather quickly. Both Saturday and Sunday are therefore expected to be beautiful fall days with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s amidst light winds. Early next week, 12Z deterministic and ensemble runs of the ECMWF/GFS agree another strong upper level longwave trough will begin to impinge on the west coast, fostering lee cyclogenesis to occur over the northern plains initially before spreading to the central plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. This synoptic feature will bring the next chance for precipitation for our area, however at the moment, any precipitation appears likely to be displaced to the east. Higher confidence exists in this wave bringing another strong wind/fire weather event, which currently looks most probable Tuesday afternoon. Either way, predictability at this range is not high, and trends will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 VFR flight category will continue through this TAF cycle. South winds will remain elevated through the night, continuing to gust 25-30 kts through 12z Thu. A strong low level jet will remain in place, and kept LLWS mentioned at all airports through 12z Thu. Strong south winds will again impact aviation operations daylight Thursday, with gusts near 35 kts after 15z Thu. Increasing cirrus is expected Thursday, but airports will be dry through 00z Fri. A strong cold front is expected to reach the terminals around the end of this TAF period, around the 06z Fri time frame. A northerly wind shift is expected, and scattered thunderstorms are expected along the cold frontal boundary, most likely near HYS/DDC in the 06-12z Fri time range. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected to arise Wednesday afternoon mainly across the far western portions of our CWA. Strong south to south-southwest winds have already developed over southwest KS, sustained in the 20-30 mph range with gusts of 40-45 mph, as a lee cyclone deepens in eastern CO. Additionally, clear skies and downsloping winds will aid temperatures in warming into the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon, combining with dewpoints in the 20s and 30s to foster minimum relative humidity in the 15-20% range. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1 PM CST through 7 PM CST for Hamilton, Kearny, Stanton, Grant, Morton, Stevens, and Scott counties. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 55 74 37 52 / 0 10 50 20 GCK 53 74 33 48 / 0 10 30 20 EHA 52 75 33 48 / 0 0 10 20 LBL 51 77 35 52 / 0 10 30 20 HYS 56 74 36 48 / 0 10 50 30 P28 57 74 49 62 / 0 10 50 50 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Springer LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...Turner FIRE WEATHER...Springer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
602 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 601 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Winds have diminished across the area and the Red Flag Warning allowed to expire. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Morning) Issued at 308 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022 RAP analysis shows southwesterly flow over the area aiding in the advection of warm and dry conditions. At the surface a trough was present with a tighter pressure gradient over the eastern counties where the gustier winds are present as a few gusts around 30 knots have occurred. The Red Flag Warning continues for the majority of the area. High temperatures have been panning out well forecast wise as eastern areas have made it into the low 80s; a few record highs are in jeopardy throughout the remainder of the afternoon. Tonight should be similar to last night as winds will be breezier through the overnight hours which will allow temperatures to remain above normal for early November in the upper 30s to mid 50s. The main story continues to be the deep trough that will advect the area tomorrow. All 4 seasons may be realized in a 24-36 hour period. The cold front looks to move into NW portions of the area during the morning hours and then stall/slow down along/near a line from McCook to Goodland to Cheyenne Wells. Quite a gradient of temperatures across the CWA will be observed with portions of Yuma County struggling to get out of the 40s to approaching 80 degrees in eastern parts of the CWA. The recent guidance trends have been slowly trending the front further south. Jumping to the potential hazards: winds will be gusty to windy ahead of the front with gusts from the SW at 30-50 mph; the strongest gusts will look to reside south of Highway 40. The timing of the winds looks to begin at diurnal mixing (~10am MDT) and persists through sunset. The severe weather potential remains on the low end as the overall trough remains positively tilted. The also quicker movement of the cold front may push any severe potential south and east of the forecast area. If a storm were to form it currently looks like Graham and Gove counties would have the relative best potential. if a storm were to develop as well it would not be until after sunset and would be relatively fast moving. The main threats would be damaging winds as storms would grow quickly upscale along the front, but a small tornado potential may exist with any discrete cells or cells on the end of the line where the strong wind shear can be most realized. Local dust research continues to indicate the potential for a plume of dust to originate in SE Colorado/SW Kansas and move northeastward into portions of Greeley, Wichita, Wallace, Logan, Gove and Graham counties through the afternoon. Currently not anticipating any walls of dust, the event should be similar to a few weeks back with 2-5SM of visibilities being observed. The majority of the dust should remain south of I-70. Any dust potential should end after the passage of the cold front. Confidence is fairly high in dust occurrence due to the warm and breezy preceding days to this event. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected due to the warm temperatures, gusty winds and ongoing drought conditions. If a fire were to begin it would have the potential for rapid spread as most if not all vegetation should be entering its winter dormancy period. Any fire may also be hidden by any dust making it difficult to see or respond to. The sudden switch to northerly winds with the front would also to lead to dangerous conditions if a fire were to be ongoing. Into Thursday night/Friday morning, the quicker frontal passage has increased the potential and confidence for wintry weather. Recent Hi- Res guidance has snow moving into western portions of the area as early as 02Z. A few areas of additional frontogenesis looks to form across northeast Colorado with localized convective snow banding potential possible. NAM and GFS suggests theta-e lapse rates and Fn Divergence vectors being coincident with the frontogenesis band which would suggest the potential for localized areas of heavier snowfall. It is worth noting that the snow bands from the past winter season had a margin of error of ~30 miles to the SE, so if this band does form it may form closer to the Dundy, Yuma, Cheyenne (KS) borders. Any snow accumulation will be difficult to realize due to the warm ground conditions but elevated surfaces may become slushy and slick. The wintry mix will continue into Friday morning before become all rain as temperatures warm above freezing. Friday, I opted for a somewhat colder solution with highs in the low 40s as cloud cover and precipitation will linger for the majority of the day. If the precipitation does last a bit longer the actual temperatures may be lower and struggle to get out of the 30s which is closer to the wet bulb temperature. Light rain may look to continue through the remaining of the day over the eastern portion of the area and may mix with snow after sunsets and temperatures cool. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 126 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Per the latest GFS/ECMWF, the upper low at 500mb that will affect the cwa in the short term period exits well east of the cwa going into the upcoming weekend. There is a transition in both model runs of a shift from northwest flow aloft to zonal/westerly flow this weekend and eventually late in the weekend into next week, a shift to southwest flow aloft ahead a low digging south into the west coast region. By midweek next week, upper ridge amplifies over the east, allowing for the west coast low to dig further and eventually push east into the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure over the northern Plains will move slow east into next week, working in tandem the aforementioned upper ridge to block the approaching low from the west. The GFS/ECMWF do begin to differ slightly as to the potential for precipitation by Wednesday. The surface low/front associated its upper component does lift north along the eastern slopes of the Rockies Tue-Wed. Current guidance has much of the cwa staying dry, with the potential for slight chance pops in the far east for light rain. This falls with the GFS as the front slides through the cwa. The bulk of any potential moisture does stay east of the cwa in central KS where better dewpts/rh reside. The persistent drying could bring about fire wx concerns again, especially for next Tuesday. Currently Colorado seeing as low as upper teens for rh ahead of fropa, with wind gust potential approaching the 30-40 mph range area-wide. For temps, highs over the upcoming weekend will range in the 60s area-wide. Going into next Monday, upper 50s to mid 60s which will give way to mid 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday. By the middle of next week, cooler air returns with a range from the upper 50s to the mid 60s. For overnight lows, lower and mid 30s Saturday night give way to slightly colder numbers with upper 20s to mid 30s expected for Sunday night. Mid 30s west to mid 40s east for Monday night give way to a colder trend with much of the cwa in the 20s Wednesday night, with a few spots east around 32F. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 513 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. A cold front will move through both terminals late Thursday morning and early afternoon, with a resultant wind shift to the north. Breezy surface winds possible at KGLD both ahead of and behind the front, with gusts up to 25 kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...024
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
926 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Clear skies and calm winds prevailed across the Midsouth at this evening. Surface dewpoint depressions had narrowed to 1 to 3 degrees F at 9 PM. 00Z NAM Bufr sounding for KMKL/Jackson and HRRR surface visibility progs suggest patchy fog potential will increase over rural valleys of west TN and north MS from about 5 AM to 8 AM. Current forecast handles this well, with a perhaps a bit an earlier start than guidance suggests. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 Great weather is on store for the Mid South over the next 36 hours. Expect clear and pleasant conditions through Friday afternoon. The next system is expected to impact the forecast area Friday night into Saturday. SPC made a special day 3 adjustment to the SWODY this afternoon for areas off to the west. We will have to see what the new day 3 outlook tonight has in store for the Mid South as we could be outlooked for some strong to severe storms. The system itself looks to be pretty stout. The kinematics look to be fairly dynamic with a 125+kt upper level jet and a 25 to 35kt LLJ. However, thermodynamic support looks to be a big limiting factor for strong to severe thunderstorms. Again, we will have to see how things evolve, but the signal now points to maybe some elevated thunderstorms. Beyond Saturday, look for typical fall weather for the Mid South. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s and perhaps a few lingering showers through early next week. Otherwise, the only real impact is this weekend`s front for the Mid South. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Some patchy areas of fog may develop overnight but it is not expected at TAF sites. Winds will be light and variable tonight before becoming southerly at 5 to 10 knots on Thursday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...ARS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
622 PM PDT Wed Nov 2 2022 .UPDATE... Gone ahead and extended the Winter Weather Advisory for the Tahoe Basin (including I-80) southward through Mono County until 12am tonight. Radar trends, high resolution model guidance, and current DOT webcams all suggest that periods of winter driving conditions will continue through the evening hours before our focus turns to the possibility of isolated lake effect bands during the overnight and early morning hours on Thursday (see discussion below for details on that). Even after snow showers diminish tonight, use extra caution on the roadways as surface temperatures below freezing are likely to refreeze, causing slick conditions. -Dustin && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM PDT Wed Nov 2 2022/ SYNOPSIS... Periods of snow showers will bring slick conditions to some areas, especially outside of daylight hours. Snow showers diminish Thursday with milder conditions moving into the region Friday and Saturday. The unsettled pattern continues as another round of cool, wet weather starts late Saturday and continues through the middle of next week. DISCUSSION... Today, the cold front that brought the initial taste of the coming winter to the region continues to march east over the Rockies and across desert Southwest. A broad area of northwesterly flow follows with cold polar air streaming into the western US for the next 36-48 hrs. Earlier satellite imagery showed open cellular low and mid- level cloudiness covering most areas from the Pacific Northwest into California and the Great Basin region with a slight enhancement to convection along the CA-OR-NV border. * Snow showers: The ensuing increased instability from even marginal daytime surface heating daytime will continue fuel scattered snow showers over the Sierra and western Nevada through this evening. Higher resolution CAM guidance foresees these showers dancing across much of northeast CA, eastern Sierra, and Basin and Range landscape for a few hours after maximum heating. Showers should abate somewhat during the overnight hours as radiative cooling and increased stability continues through the early morning hours Thursday. Winter weather advisories will continue across Lassen-Eastern Plumas- Eastern Sierra Counties and the Tahoe Basin through 8PM tonight. * The only areas for snow shower concerns later this evening into the early morning hours will remain around the southern periphery of the larger area lakes. Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake could see periods of bands of lake effect/enhanced snow showers with an inch of two of accumulated snow several miles down wind to their southeast through southwest shorelines. HRRR simulations have also projected lesser extent bands of lake effect snow showers early morning Thursday from Walker Lake as well. * Temperature drop: The increased post-frontal northerly flow aloft will be reflected in the general drop of temperatures for most areas 15-20 degrees below seasonal averages. Thursday morning temperatures will put a definite chill to the bones as lows across the region plummet into teens for most Sierra locations with areas across the eastern Sierra and Mono County dropping into the more frigid single digits. A proper taste of the winter season to come! Area ski resorts will get the extra benefit much from these colder temperatures with snow making operations to supplement accumulations already on the ground. Highs Thursday over most Sierra locations will struggle just above the freezing mark with most lower valleys seeing January like highs mostly in the low to mid 40s. Blended guidance does project a brief warming trend through Saturday as temperatures rebound into more seasonal territory before more unsettled conditions and lower temperatures return early next week. * Road impacts: Area interstates (I-80 from Fernley to USA Parkway) and roadways (US 50/CA 89 from Meyers to Echo Summit) in the downwind areas of Pyramid Lake and South Lake Tahoe could see icy-slick conditions early morning Thursday that could continue till roads warm sufficiently before midday. * The way forward: A rather quiet period from overnight Thursday through Saturday morning will be followed by an unsettled period that looks to continue into next week. An amplifying upper trough deepening over the western US will bring increases chances for wetter and cooler conditions going into next week. Although the lower end of probabilistic precipitation chances is currently trending up, any increased confidence will remain guarded till ensemble guidance aligns better going into the weekend. Winds look to increase later this coming weekend across northeast CA and northwest NV. These higher breezes with increase chances for 30-40 mph gusts, look to spread south and east into the eastern Sierra and far western NV respectively. AVIATION... Hi-Res radar simulations show widespread showers over northeast CA into western Nevada this evening. Some terminals across the the Basin and Range will see rain showers switching to mostly snow or snow pellet showers going into the evening hours before tapering off before midnight. Simulations also show most snow shower activity shifting more south of US-50 and west of US-95 after midnight with areas from KMMH-KHTH west into the eastern Sierra (KMEV) with light snow accumulations lingering till at least 12Z Thursday morning. * SIERRA TERMINALS: Widespread terrain obscurations over higher terrain areas with periods of IFR-MVFR conditions in light to moderate snow showers through this evening. Snow showers will gradually diminish overnight around the Tahoe Basin with the exception of some light to moderate lake effect snow persisting around KTVL until 13-15Z. For the eastern Sierra (KMEV-KMMH) light snow will continue through early morning Thursday as an increasing north-northeast flow enhances upslope over terrain favored areas. Snow amounts will vary considerably but generally between 0.5-2". * WESTERN NV TERMINALS: Snow showers will begin to taper off north of Hwy-50 going into the evening but a few light snow showers should linger around KHTH into early morning hours Thursday. Reductions in VIS/CIGS will bring rather brief periods of IFR- MVFR conditions with lighter snow accumulations half inch or less for area terminals if and when they occur. * WINDS: A more northerly flow aloft at FL100 this evening will remain around 15-20 kts. before turning more northeasterly Thursday morning. Surface winds tonight will shift more from the north to northeast 10-20 kts through Thursday. * LONG RANGE: A longer stretch of stormy weather is looking more likely this weekend into next week with multiple periods of valley rain, mountain snow, increased breezes, and turbulence. -Amanda && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight PDT tonight NVZ002. CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ071. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight PDT tonight CAZ072. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight PDT tonight CAZ073. && $$