Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/02/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
528 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Morning)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022
RAP analysis shows textbook split upper level flow across the
central plains resulting in virtually clear skies across the
area. At the surface a low pressure system is located off of the
Front Range. Winds are slowly creeping up across the area as
diurnal mixing is a occurring. The strongest winds are across
eastern portions of the area where a tighter pressure gradient is
located. Temperatures are well above normal as the entire area is
in the 70s and a few record highs may be in jeopardy through the
afternoon. The Red Flag Warning continues for Kit Carson and Yuma
counties as RH values have fallen below 15% thanks in part to the
warm temperatures. Into tonight, overnight lows will be above
normal in the upper 30s to low 50s. A mix of breezy SW winds and a
LLJ will keep winds breezy overnight allowing the air to mix
beneath the overnight inversion allowing temperatures from
falling; some cloud cover moving west to east will also help keep
temperatures warm. There are some hints at fog developing across
Hitchcock and Red Willow counties overnight with a surface high
located in the Nebraska Panhandle. I am somewhat skeptical of the
fog potential due to the dry air advecting in so will leave out
of the forecast for now.
Into Wednesday, continued WAA and dry air moves into the area with
breezy SW winds. Another day of near record to record high
temperatures is expected as high temperatures are expected to be in
the mid 70s to low 80s. Portions of the inherited Fire Weather
Watch (along and south of Interstate 70) has been upgraded to a
Red Flag Warning for Wednesday afternoon with winds of 35-40 mph
expected. The counties north of I-70 that were in the Fire Weather
Watch as confidence was not high enough to warrant issuing as
concerns about wind duration remains. Another night of above
normal overnight lows is expected with low temperatures in the
upper 30s to mid 50s across the area. Locales in the eastern CWA
may approach record lowest high temperatures.
Thursday, continues to be a difficult forecast as guidance struggles
with the evolution of the system. The GFS has speed up the trough
while the ECMWF continues to alternate between solutions. The 12Z
run of the GFS moves the dryline significantly eastward out of our
area by 18Z which would eliminate severe weather potential. I
don`t want to completely go all in on this solution as it seems
like in the past with deep troughs the dryline seems to fluctuate
on position in guidance. If a severe storm were to form it would
be located in eastern portions of the area (Graham, Gove
counties). Any storm would be fast moving, but all hazards would
continue to remain possible.
Forecast soundings continue to show gusty winds across the area with
40-50 mph expected. GFS continues to signal for blowing dust
potential along and south of Interstate 70 based on office
research criteria. There may be some fire weather potential if a
slower frontal passage occurs as temperatures will be able to
warm even more. If a fire were to develop it may be obscured by
dust creating a potentially more hazardous situation. High
temperatures for the day are currently forecasted to range from
the lower 60s to mid 70s across the area. I opted to go with NBM
for temperatures due to the overall uncertainty with the synoptic
features, so the temperatures may fluctuate in upcoming
forecasts.
Thursday night and into Friday morning, confidence increased a bit
in the potential for some light snow/wintry mix mainly across
Yuma and Kit Carson counties. Overall snow accumulation looks to
remain minimal due to the warm soil conditions still but elevated
surfaces may become slick. Winds will continue to remain breezy
overnight with increased pressure rises behind the front and
especially as the stronger CAA moves into the area which may lead
to reduced visibilities in areas of snow. Overnight lows will
fall to the low 20s to mid 30s across the area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022
The long term is forecasted to have near to below average
temperatures and a few chances for precipitation as a few upper
level troughs move across the Western and Central CONUS.
Friday is forecasted to start out cold and dreary in the wake of the
front that moved through the prior night. While the heavier
precipitation should move further south and east with the better
synoptic forcing, light rain and snow would be possible for the
morning hours and potentially through the afternoon as well as the
column of air is forecasted to be saturated below the mid-levels.
While ensemble spreads show near equal chances for the upper trough
to either swing through to the east faster or slow down and deepen,
increasing confidence in moisture and light precipitation is leading
towards forecasting lower temperatures for the area on Friday.
Current forecast is now closer to 40 and even lower temperatures
could be possible if the trough deepens and drags more cold air
south while cloud cover holds. If the trough moves through faster or
cloud cover breaks, highs closer to 50 would be more likely.
The weekend then sees more zonal flow aloft as heights rise before
the next trough moves into the Northwest CONUS. With this, warmer
temperatures are expected as 850mb temps begin climbing back toward
the mid teens though will need to see how much moisture lingers as
cloud cover could prohibit full heating and mixing. Currently
keeping forecasts around the 60`s, though 70`s could be possible
Sunday with lesser chances for moisture to linger that day. It is
also worth noting that eastern portions of the area could be cooler,
especially on Saturday when wrap around cloud cover and
precipitation would be possible as a surface low moves off to the
east with the upper trough.
For next week, another trough is forecasted to move into the
Northwest CONUS and make its way east though there is variance on
timing and if a shortwave will precede the main trough. Currently
leaning toward the slower solution with a shortwave based on 500mb
ensemble spread charts showing some ensemble members with that
solution. With this, temperatures will generally be near to above
average except if the shortwave moves through which could allow for
precip and cooler temperatures for a day early in the week. Will
also have to watch for strong winds next week ahead of the main
trough.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 526 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022
VFR expected to prevail at KMCK through the TAF period. Low level
jet will result in low level wind shear late tonight through
Wednesday morning, then some of those gusts mixing to the surface
by mid Wednesday morning.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022
November 1st Maximum Temperatures Records:
Goodland... 79 degrees in 1915
McCook... 82 degrees in 1990
Burlington... 78 degrees in 2017
Hill City... 81 degrees in 2015
November 2nd Maximum Temperatures Records:
Goodland... 81 degrees in 1931
McCook... 79 degrees in 2005
Burlington... 81 degrees in 1931
Hill City... 83 degrees in 1931
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch Wednesday afternoon for KSZ001-002.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for KSZ013-014-
027-028-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ252-253.
Fire Weather Watch Wednesday afternoon for COZ252.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ253-254.
NE...Fire Weather Watch Wednesday afternoon for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
755 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022
- Fog expected again tonight -
Tonight I expect fog to redevelop across the area. I have noted
over the past year or so that when the RAP model and NAM4KM show
dense fog in the same place at the same time it just about always
happens as those models suggest. This has happened several times
during the past 7 days. Every time it has happened we did get the
dense fog that was suggested by those models. Given that, and
knowing we will a surface high over us tonight allowing light
winds with otherwise clear skies, it make sense to think of fog
as a good possibility. Beside that the NAM, RAP, and HRRR all show
the classic fog signature in there model soundings. The specific
humidity increases with height over most of our CWA overnight.
That is another classic fog signature. However, unlike last night
the depth of the fog is expected to be shallower. Beside that it
is now November the sunshine is not enough to really dry the low
levels out like in September. All of these things lead me to
believe we will have fog again tonight. While it will be colder
tonight than last night, I still do not see much threat for
freezing fog as it likely will not be quite that cold.
The fog that does develop should mix out again tomorrow as it did
today leaving us with a warmer than normal November day.
- Warmer than normal into next week
Our overall long wave pattern features a western trough and
eastern ridge. While shortwaves will continue to track through
the western trough over the top of the eastern upper ridge, the
overall pattern should remain unchanged, at least into the middle
of next week. This will keep the polar jet stream north of
Michigan into at least the middle of next week. That in turn keeps
us with above normal temperatures.
Just ahead of each cold front, expect a surge of warmer air, so at
this point I would expect Saturday to be the warmest day in the
next 7 days. Yet another surge of warm air is likely with the
front behind that. This should mean another fairly warm day during
the middle of next week.
It is possible we could break some record warm low temperatures
Friday and Saturday with our forecast suggesting lows in the mid
to upper 50s, which is about where our record warm lows are.
While our actual forecast would not suggest record highs are
possible even so our forecast highs may be a touch conservative.
- Several large scale storms heading our way Saturday and beyond
We have several storms to watch for in the next week or so. First
we have a system that tracks north and west of us on Friday. That
pushes the cold front our way. However, that cold front will
likely not get close enough to bring showers here Friday.
Meanwhile a strongly digging shortwave rounds the base of the
western upper trough and sends a negative tilt upper shortwave our
way for Saturday. That will bring some showers but more likely
gusty winds, maybe a wind advisory. Yet another stronger Pacific
system has to dig into the long wave trough and head our way for
the middle of next week. That will be one to watch too. The
Saturday system will not bring much cold air with it as the polar
jet stays north of us yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022
The only thing keeping us from VFR through the 24 hour forecast
is a medium to high potential for LIFR fog late tonight into mid
Wednesday morning. With clear skies and light/calm surface winds
overnight, radiational cooling and falling temperatures will
support areas of fog formation despite some drier air that mixed
down earlier this afternoon. A number of higher resolution models
have been showing a shallower fog/cloud layer than previous
nights, but a more pronounced surface inversion with specific
humidity increasing with height in the lowest 200 feet. Visibility
temporarily falling below minimums is possible during the pre-
dawn hours, though some 10 to 15 knot southwesterly winds above
200 feet may delay thicker fog maintenance until late in the
night. That and some recent runs of the HRRR have been less
bullish, so have opted to keep prevailing quarter-mile visibility
out of the TAFs for now.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022
The fog has mixed out however it is expected to return again
tonight. A land breeze will help bring the fog into the near shore
waters once again. Like today it will also mix out by late morning
once again.
Marine headlines are likely from Thursday into Sunday. The frontal
system moving in from the west will increase winds into the 15 to
25 knot range with the strongest winds over the northern part of
the lake during the day Thursday. The front then stalls west of
Michigan and frontal wave strengthens and tracks northeast along
that front, just west of Lower Michigan on Saturday. This could
bring gales during the day Saturday. Once that system tracks
northeast of the area the next upstream system will keep winds in
the 15 to 25 knot range through Sunday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...WDM
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
448 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022
20z surface analysis had low over western MT with lee trough into
eastern CO. Tight pressure gradient ahead of it supporting gusty
south/southwest winds across the CWA. Water vapour loop had upper
trough of interest off the northwest CONUS coast with upper ridge
over the northern Plains. Cirrus blobs spilling into northwest
half of CWA, but where sunshine reigns temperatures have blossomed
into the 70s. Evolution of upper trough main forecast concern.
Tonight through Thursday, upper trough moves eastward as it splits.
Main energy dips into the southwest CONUS with northern wave moving
into south-central Canada. MT surface low/lee trough will be
maintained tonight/Wednesday morning. 40-50kt low level
southwesterly jet develops overnight into Wednesday morning. NBM4.1
50kt wind gusts probability fairly low, but setup looks really good
given pattern recognition. Downslope enhanced flow over the northern
Black Hills late tonight/Wednesday morning. Would like to see
greater pressure gradient across the Black Hills (forecast 3-4mb)
for higher confidence in 50kt wind gusts, but forecast soundings
support high wind warning as well as HRRR guidance. Have hoisted
headlines to account. Surface low moves east late
Wednesday night dragging sharp cold front through the CWA with
gusty northwest winds behind it. Wind advisory speeds possible,
especially just east of the Black Hills per ensemble members.
Will hold off on headlines until areal coverage becomes clearer.
Cold front will be moisture starved, but eventually saturation
will occur late Wednesday night into Thursday as post frontal low
level frontogenesis combines with left exit region of 130kt jet
streak. Should see a band of mostly snow across northeast
WY/northern Black Hills slip into far southern SD late Wednesday.
1-3" snow accumulation looks reasonable for parts of northeastern
Wyoming/northern Black Hills per 25-75th percentile computations.
Lesser amounts near the NE border. Temperatures tonight will be
quite warm over the downslope terrain areas. Highs Wednesday will
be near guidance with 60s in the west and 70s in the east.
Thursday highs will be 30-40F lower.
Friday/Saturday, most ensemble solutions show a warming trend,
but then another sharp cold front moves through Sunday.
Temperature spreads 10-20F early next week, so confidence much
lower, but trend has been of winter-like temperatures with some
chances for light snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 447 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty southwest
winds will continue across portions northeastern WY and the
northeastern foothills tonight. There is a wind shear threat
tonight into Wednesday morning across the less windy portions of
northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and portions of the western SD
plains, including KRAP. Low level mixing after sunrise on
Wednesday will then bring those gusty southwest winds down to the
surface by mid to late morning. Winds will diminish late Wednesday
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 220 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2022
Southwest winds ahead of a developing low pressure system,
coupled with very dry air and warm temperatures, will support
critical fire weather conditions over the area through Wednesday
evening. The strongest winds are expected over northeast WY into
far western SD, where gusts over 50 mph will be possible,
especially later tonight into Wednesday. Daytime RHes will fall
into the teens. Poor RH recovery tonight. A cold front will move
through the region Wednesday evening with increasing chances for
mainly snow late into Thursday. A couple inches of snow
accumulation over northeast WY/northern Black Hills. Much cooler
and unsettled weather can then be expected into next early next
week.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for SDZ319>335.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM to noon MDT Wednesday for SDZ012-024-
025.
WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for WYZ314>318.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM to noon MDT Wednesday for WYZ057-071.
High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
for WYZ054>056.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Helgeson
AVIATION...Pojorlie
FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson