Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/31/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
952 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system over the mid-Mississippi Valley moves
northeast across the southern Great Lakes region Monday through
Tuesday. approaches the region from the southwest. High
pressure returns by Tuesday night, persisting through the rest
of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
950 PM Update... First wave of rain moving through at this
hour, but coverage is still scattered behind it, so do have some
concerns that the higher end POPs during the overnight may be
slightly overdone. Regardless, still expecting rain, and overall
is a relatively low QPF event. Minor overnight low temperature
adjustments made.
Original Discussion...
Upper-level low currently located over the mid-Mississippi Valley
gradually moves east tonight, centered over Ohio/Indiana border by
Monday night. South to southwest flow in lower part of the
troposphere will advect warm, moist air to the region, with forcing
form the upper-level resulting in scattered rain showers developing
and moving into the region tonight. Already observing rain showers
in Indiana and parts of southern Ohio, with radar returns reaching
into central Ohio (those these likely aren`t reaching the ground
yet). Hi-res model guidance has showers reaching the western part of
the forecast area by around 23-02Z this evening, north-central to
northeast Ohio by 04-08Z and northwest Pennsylvania by 09-10Z. For
now, holding with a max of 60-70% PoP due to scattered coverage and
variable timing between models but could see later updates
increasing this, especially with subsequent HRRR runs
increasing spatial coverage of showers.
Coverage of showers decreases tomorrow and tomorrow night,
though still expect isolated to scattered coverage of rain
showers to stick around as that upper-level low gradually
approaches. Temperatures through the near term period remain
above average with highs in the 60s and low in the low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure expands north into the Ohio Valley behind the
weakening area of low pressure tracking northeast into Quebec. Low
level moisture is slow to depart as the flow weakens. Have delayed
clearing on Tuesday and held onto a low chance of rain with some
veering flow through the moist layer and lowering inversion heights.
Can not rule out precipitation being more of a drizzle than rain
with only light amounts expected. Also lowered high temperatures
slightly, especially closer to Lake Erie as the flow shifts to
westerly. Subsequently we will need to monitor for fog on Tuesday
night where skies have cleared but a little too far out to put in
the forecast.
Upper level ridge expands north over the Great Lakes on Wednesday
while a closed upper level circulation drifts east through the
Tennessee Valley. High cloud will expand north into the forecast
area but high pressure at the surface will keep the forecast area
dry. Temperatures will be on the rebound with light southerly flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is high confidence in above normal temperatures during the
long term. Upper level ridge axis located overhead on Thursday
shifts to the East Coast by Friday with increasing southwesterly
flow and 850mb temperatures warming to 12C or greater by Saturday.
Upper 60s to low 70s will be common again to end the week. There are
a few opportunities for uncertainty, including the handling of
trailing cold front extending from low pressure passing well north
of the Great Lakes on Friday. Given the strong upper level ridging,
the boundary is generally expected to stall north of Lake Erie with
little impact. The next area of uncertainty resides around the
timing of an upper level low moving out of the Four Corners Region.
The Canadian model is much faster with this feature starting to
impact the region as early as Saturday while the favored long range
consensus offered by the ECMWF/GFS is 24 hours or more slower. Will
keep an eye on both of these features with only a low pop introduced
to the forecast over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Deteriorating flight conditions expected as rain continues to
overspread the region from southwest to northeast thanks to a
low pressure system pushing in from the lower Ohio Valley.
Ceilings lower to brief MVFR, then to IFR or worse generally
after 05Z for the western terminals and a few hours later
further east. Some improvement in the ceilings and visibilities
are possible in a dry slot after 15Z Monday with ceilings
lifting back to VFR and rain coverage decreasing.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periods of rain showers and
lower ceilings through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Good marine conditions expected for much of this week. South to
southeast winds of 15 knots or less will veer to westerly behind a
weak cold front on Tuesday. Another area of high pressure will have
an influence on the eastern Great Lakes as it sets up from the
Appalachians to New England for the second half of the week. Light
southerly winds will return, increasing to 10-20 knots Friday into
Saturday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...26/Saunders
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...26
MARINE...KEC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1013 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022
No significant changes to the going forecast this evening. Some
light rain has moved into Southern Lower Michigan as expected
already as of 02z. Rain chances should increase through the
night. At 02z, a surface low was centered in Southern Illinois.
The low is forecast to continue to move to the northeast and
weaken over the next 24 hours. Best chances for rain with this
system both tonight and on Monday are across southern portions of
the state. Highest pops remain in the forecast for areas to the
south and east of Grand Rapids. Lows tonight in most areas will be
in the 40s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022
- Increased potential for rain Tonight into Monday Evening
Models have been trending upward with the qpf for the storm system
to track through Southern Lower MI during this period. Trends are
higher with the PWAT with values now expected to reach upwards of
1.2 inches. The initial mid level wave arrives tonight. The lift
increases and moisture deepens up and we will see the rain showers on
the increase. Some of rain could become moderate at times as
weakness in the instability is noted. We will feature categorical
POPs for southeast zones tonight and taper them down to chance
north of Grand Rapids.
The second mid level wave moves through Monday afternoon. The
moisture again deepens up as the lift increases. The low level
convergence associated with the surface low tracking through
strengthens and focuses on the Kalamazoo to Jackson to Lansing
region for the strongest and most persistent low level lift.
Numerous showers...some of which could be locally heavy are
expected in this region. We even included a slight chance for a
thunderstorm in the Kalamazoo area for Monday afternoon. An
increased risk for several locations to see more than a half inch
of rain exists. These higher amounts are supported by the SPC HREF
LPMM 24 hr qpf. While the shower activity may start to decrease
for Halloween evening...it does look like some areas will still be
wet.
- Fog risk late Monday night to Tuesday morning
There has been a trend towards a fairly foggy start to
Tuesday...especially to the north of Grand Rapids. The skies are
forecast to scatter out on the backside of the departing storm
system Monday night and the winds will diminish. This will lead to
decent radiational cooling. The Monday afternoon/evening surface
dewpoints are shown to be elevated compared to the forecast
lows...which raises the fog risk. The HRRR has been showing this
risk the past couple of runs. As a result...we will add this to
the forecast.
- Shower potential Friday afternoon/evening
There is still a lot of uncertainty on what the structure of the
cold front will look like as it moves into the CWA during this
period. The flow in the mid to upper levels will remain southwest
here in MI. As a result the surface front will become shallower as
it tracks into northwest parts of the CWA. Some models track it
all the way through past Jackson and give the CWA a fairly steady
rain. The latest high res euro dissipates the front as it moves
in and places like Kalamazoo...Battle Creek and Jackson stay dry.
The GFS Ens shows considerable spread in the qpf with its members
so confidence is low at this time. For now we will show likely
pops for northwest parts of the CWA around Ludington...lowering to
chance by this time you get to Battle Creek and Jackson.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 817 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022
Aviation conditions are VFR across Southwest Lower Michigan at
00z, but a rapid deterioration is expected after midnight. Lower
ceilings will spread in after 04z and by 10z, IFR and LIFR will
be widespread. The lower ceilings will also be accompanied by rain
and lowering visibilities as well. At 12z, visibilities will range
from around 5 miles at MKG to around 1 mile at JXN. The poor
aviation conditions are associated with a weakening area of low
pressure sliding into the state from Illinois and Indiana.
During the day on Monday, a slight improvement will be noted, but
the LIFR ceilings will stick around at most sites through midday.
IFR will still be in place across a fair amount of Southern Lower
Michigan through the day. Winds will be light through the period
at less than 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022
We are generally looking at a low risk for any marine hazards
through Tuesday. The approaching cold front Thursday into Friday
will likely lead to enough wind to generate hazardous conditions.
Fog may cause lower visibilities later Monday night into Tuesday
especially north of Muskegon.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Duke
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1042 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances increase today into Monday as a low pressure system
tracks northeast across the Midwest. Drier weather and warmer
temperatures return on Tuesday and persist through the end of the
week as broad surface high pressure spreads back over the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1042 PM: Areas of light rain showers continue to develop
across the region in response to better isentropic upglide.
Expect patches of drizzle will probably be found where the radar
does not show rain. Otherwise, no surprises thus far with
extensive low clouds and steady temps typical of a cold air
damming wedge.
A surface low will move further north thru the heart of the
Mississippi Valley through the period, pulling an occluded front
slightly east. Rainfall ahead of that feature remains pretty
light/ragged on current radar imagery from MS/AL, and model progs
suggest it won`t all that much better defined as it moves nearer
our area tonight. CAD however will hold strong over the Carolinas
and northeast GA so low cloud ceilings should remain. A modest LLJ
will precede the occluded front and will ride atop the southern
Appalachians, deepening moisture and bolstering upglide over
roughly the western half of our CWA. Likely PoPs become warranted
there. Upper divergence increases only marginally thru 12z Mon;
the better dynamic lift looks to miss us to the west, nearer the
upper low. Altogether, while moisture and isentropic forcing do not
improve as much over the eastern half of the CWA, we can advertise
higher but still chance-range PoPs. Elevated convection is not out
of the question, although unstable layer looks too shallow to permit
graupel formation, and thus thunder chance is too small to mention.
The best midlevel flow associated with the LLJ should either
wane diurnally or exit to the north thru midday Monday, as the low
continues its progress. CAD erosion processes look unlikely to begin
in earnest prior to 00z Tue, although most guidance does bring winds
into the southeast quadrant across the lower Piedmont. Many of the
models, including CAMs, show that helping the wedge boundary to
retreat up to around I-85. The usual preference in CAD, the NAM,
maintains a strong wedge thru the day. Some midlevel drying may
occur behind the LLJ, permitting some breaks in the clouds in our
west. We also will start to get under the left-front quadrant of
southern stream jet by that time, maybe adding another source
of dynamic lift, albeit weak. But with continuing upglide and
increasing precip chances for most of the wedged-in area, it
seems wise to lean cooler and wetter, though not as chilly as
today. Notably, if any retreat in the wedge boundary does occur,
we may be dealing with some modest SBCAPE in the afternoon in our
lower Piedmont, which will overlap with 30+ kt of 0-3km shear. Some
streaks of updraft helicity are seen on the HREF as an indication
that more vigorous storms could accompany such a setup.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EDT Sunday: Monday evening into Tuesday evening the low
pressure system over the Great Lakes region will track ENE towards
the Northeastern CONUS while upper-level ridging gradually builds
overhead the Carolinas. Scattered showers with isolated embedded
thunderstorms will still be ongoing for the eastern half of the CWA
through the evening hours Monday, but should push east anywhere from
the late evening hours to the overnight hours. Currently the NAM is
much slower compared to the HRRR in regards to pushing the
convection of the CWA. The NAM does not push the convection out
until 1200-1300Z Tuesday while the HRRR pushes the convection out by
0700-0800Z Tuesday. It is also of note that the NAM has some
instability returning as the wedge starts to retreat overnight
Monday into daybreak Tuesday. With good shear in place, this could
lead to the potential for a rogue severe storm. But this is only if
the NAM timing plays out, so for now confidence on this occurring is
low. Otherwise, sfc high pressure gradually builds in from the west
late Monday night and remains over the region through Tuesday night
leading to drier and warmer conditions. Lows will remain around 10-
13 degrees above climo thanks to cloud cover Tuesday night and
Wednesday night. Highs Tuesday will be much warmer compared to the
last few days thanks to downsloping winds.
Meanwhile, another upper low will lift NE out of the Southern Plains
Tuesday into Tuesday night, ending up just west of the CWA Wednesday
morning. The low will track SE across the Carolinas Wednesday into
Wednesday night. At the sfc, high pressure continues to extend
across the Southeast Wednesday into Wednesday night. This should
help compress convection for the most part. However, global models
are showing the potential for a few isolated showers Wednesday into
Wednesday night, but they are not in agreement on the timing or
placement of these. The NBM has backed off on PoPs slightly during
this time frame and has only chance PoPs across the northern tier of
the CWA. This seemed reasonable so stuck with the NBM PoPs for now.
The main impact from this low looks to be increased cloud cover
leading to slightly cooler temps on Wednesday. Despite this, high
temps on Wednesday will remain around 3-6 degrees above climo. Lows
Wednesday night will be around 8-11 degrees above climo.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Sunday: At the beginning of the long term fcst
period the upper-level low should be situated over the eastern
Carolinas. This low will gradually push offshore the Carolina Coast
late Thursday. For the rest of the period, an upper-level ridge will
gradually build northward into the eastern CONUS while an upper-
level low cuts off near the Desert Southwest. The aforementioned low
off the coastal Carolinas will gradually track SE across the western
Atlantic. This will allow for an Omega Blocking Pattern to develop.
The Omega Blocking pattern looks to transition into a Rex Blocking
pattern late Saturday into Sunday. All this to say, the upper-level
ridge looks to be the main feature through much of the long term,
which will lead to mostly dry conditions and above climo temps. The
ridge looks to breakdown Sunday at the earliest as an upper
troughing approaches out of the west, per the ECMWF, which could
allow moisture to return into the fcst area. However, the GFS
maintains the ridge aloft which could limit the moisture return.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread flight restrictions with a light
NE wind will continue through the period as the western Carolinas
remain underneath a cold air damming wedge that will not start
to break up until perhaps late Monday or more likely Tuesday
morning. Ceiling was a mixed bag at issuance time, but expect the
cloud base to lower to the IFR range as we get farther into the
evening as it usually does in these situations, with occasional
LIFR expected. Guidance has KCLT improving to MVFR, but there is
much skepticism about that happening. Brief improvements could
happen elsewhere if heavier showers develop and move across the
area. Expect numerous amendments until the ceiling and vis settle
down later tonight. On Monday, more of the same with a continued
northeast wind at most sites. The wedge boundary will make an
attempt to move into Charlotte in the afternoon with a wind shift
to SE possible. If this happens, the chances of a thunderstorm
will increase as weak instability works in from the east.
Outlook: Restrictions linger thru Monday night in final stages of
CAD. Improvement should gradually occur Tuesday. Dry high pressure
returns for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...PM/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
608 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
In this forecaster`s opinion, today was a perfect fall day with
sunny skies, light winds, and slightly below normal temperatures.
These mostly clear and calm conditions will persist through
tonight as temperatures drop into the low to mid 50s. Drier air
has filtered in compared to last night, so not expecting much, if
any, patchy fog to develop. HREF is picking up on the potential of
some patchy fog across the northern (Madison, northern Grimes,
and Houston counties) and east of the Trinity River, but the SREF
has almost zero chance of fog developing. Looking at forecast
soundings, the dew point depressions tonight across most of the
guidance is between 4 and 6 degrees with the one exception of the
HRRR which has depressions near 1 degree. Have tended toward the
consensus of no fog, but I wouldn`t out rule some patchy ground
fog across those areas highlighted by the HREF around sunrise
Monday.
Monday (also known as Halloween) will start out mostly sunny, but
will have a gradual increase in cloud cover through the afternoon
and evening hours. This is due to a broad upper level trough that
will be approaching from the west inducing an easterly to
southeasterly flow across the region. This flow will bring higher
PWATs and temperatures into area. PWATs around noon will be around
0.7", but will climb to near 1" around sunset. High temperatures on
Monday will be in the mid 70s north of Conroe and along the
immediate coast, with the rest of the region climbing into the upper
70s.
While the cloud cover will be increasing through the evening, Trick
or Treating conditions will be more treat than trick with
temperatures near 70 into the upper 60s through the evening hours.
The aforementioned low pressure system will bring a chance of showers
in the southwestern counties, but these should not start until after
midnight Monday night. These showers (and isolated thunderstorms)
may begin to approach the I-10 corridor in the very late overnight
hours/near sunrise Tuesday. Low temperatures Monday night will be in
the low to mid 50s for the northern third of the region, then upper
50s to low 60s for the rest of the area.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
With a cool and cloudy start to the day, Tues should bring a decent
chance of rain for mainly the southern half of the CWA as a coastal
trough of low pressure moves NE across the Gulf just off of the TX
coast. Based on the current forecasted track of this system up from
the lower TX coast, the best/highest rain chances will likely be a-
long and south of I-10 for the early part of Tues with POPs falling
(moving more offshore) by that afternoon as the trough takes a more
eastward track into the Gulf. But, keep in mind, a slight jog north
in this track could translate to these higher POPs creeping further
inland than currently forecast. So, as it stands now, will keep the
rainfall totals as in the range of 0.5-1.0" for areas south of I-10
with the totals near 1" (or more) for the barrier islands/immediate
coastline on Tues. Of note for Tues, global models are showing some
favorable mid/upper support for thunderstorms that could develop.
As this system moves further east/weakens, a more easterly low-level
flow will develop by Weds...and becoming more southeasterly by Thur.
Mid/upper pattern favoring a more SW flow aloft for TX as a the next
trough deepens as it crosses the Desert SW/Northern Mexico. For SETX
this should translate to warming temperatures from mid week thru the
end of the week with only minimal POPs. But rain chances could be on
the return by Fri as this next mid/upper trough moves into the state
from the west. For now, will keep POPs in the 20-30% range Fri/Sat.
As for temperatures, highs on Tues in the lower 70s will be warming
into the lower to mid 80s by Fri. Highs on Sat could be a bit cool-
er (per the return of clouds/rain) and range from the upper 70s and
the lower 80s. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
Northwesterly to westerly winds become light and variable shortly
after sunset tonight. There is quite a bit of model discrepancy
between patchy ground fog developing overnight, especially near
the Trinity River and near our northern sites (CXO and northward).
For now, fog has been kept out of most of the TAFs with the
exceptions being the usual suspects of CXO and LBX. There is the
potential though for it to be added to additional sites in later
TAF packages if there is better agreement in the forecast models.
On late Monday morning, winds become predominantly easterly. Along
the coast, winds will gradually shift towards becoming
southeasterly by the late afternoon hours. Expect winds to become
light and variable again after sunset on Monday night.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
Light NW winds and low seas are expect to continue tonight into most
of Mon. As the gradient tightens in response to a developing coastal
trough of low pressure near the Lower TX coast, winds and seas could
be on the increase for the coastal waters late Mon night. Winds will
be at/near Advisory criteria as the system deepens and begins moving
NE up the coast into the Upper TX coast by Tue morning. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms will likely accompany this system. Winds
and seas should begin improving Weds afternoon/night as this makes a
more easterly turn. Light to moderate easterly winds on Weds will be
shifting to the southeast for the rest of the week. 41
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
With just two days left in the month, here are some climate numbers
for our five major locations.
College Station...
Average temperature of 71.9 degrees is 0.5 degrees above normal.
Rainfall total of 1.84 inches is 2.81 inches below normal.
Houston...
Average temperature of 70.3 degrees is 1.9 degrees below normal.
Rainfall total of 1.83 inches is 3.30 inches below normal.
Houston Hobby...
Average temperature of 73.1 degrees is 0.2 degrees below normal.
Rainfall total of 2.82 inches is 2.62 inches below normal.
Galveston...
Average temperature of 74.4 degrees is 1.3 degrees below normal.
Rainfall total of 1.54 inches is 3.31 inches below normal.
Palacios...
Average temperature of 72.3 degrees is 1.9 degrees below normal.
Rainfall total of 2.42 inches is 1.66 inches below normal.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 53 77 57 73 / 0 0 20 20
Houston (IAH) 55 78 58 71 / 0 0 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 63 74 66 73 / 0 0 40 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
901 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
Upper level low continues to track north and east of Middle TN
keeping the forecast area in the "warm" sector. Mainly stratiform
rain with a few pockets of heavier rain for the east. Even though
the forecast is on track updated grids to reflect current radar
trends and to include the influence of the HRRR and Conshort.
There will most likely be a break in rain after midnight. Low
clouds...southerly winds...with overnight low temperatures in the
50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
Scattered light showers will continue into this evening thanks to
a low pressure system spinning over the Mid Ms Valley. Rainfall
amounts will be light and not everybody will see additional
rainfall. Later this evening and overnight, rain chances will cut
off from west to east as the main low center moves northeast and
takes the deepest band of moisture away from our area. Low level
moisture will linger, so some late night patches of drizzle may
occur, and patchy fog may form in areas where there are breaks in
the clouds.
On Monday, skies will be mostly cloudy with a good deal of low
level moisture staying around. Passage of an upper level trough
axis will help kick off a few little showers, especially in the
afternoon and early evening. Trick-or-treat may be damp for some,
but any showers should be very light. Temperatures will be mild
through Monday and into Monday night. As surface high pressure
moves in for late Monday night, the setup looks favorable for
areas of spooky fog late Monday night through the Tuesday morning
commute.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
After morning fog, Tuesday should be a pretty good day with skies
becoming mainly sunny and highs around 70.
Models continue to go back and forth with small rain chances for
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this point, our model blends show
no pops as a weak upper level low moves directly overhead. I would
not be surprised if small rain chances come back into the forecast
for Tuesday night and Wednesday, but if nay showers do form, they
should be very light and brief.
Late week, an upper ridge will dominate the weather with dry and
very warm conditions. Highs will climb well into the 70s late
week and some 80+ highs are quite possible for Friday and
Saturday.
A chance for showers may come by Sunday with an approaching front,
but whenever the front is able to break through the ridge, it will
not make much change the overall warm and dry pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
Upper level low will continue to move north and east of the area
keeping middle TN with stratiform rain and MVFR conditions
through at least 15 to 18Z. For the most part any rain will be
VCSH other than CSV which will experience heavier showers through
07Z. CSV could become IFR overnight after the showers move out.
Clouds will stay predominately MVFR during the day tomorrow. There
could be some additional showers during the late morning across
the north near the KY line. This may have and affect on CKV for a
few hours. Any remaining showers and clouds will begin to lift
after 18 to 21Z. Expect VFR conditions after 01/00Z.
Southerly winds 10kts with occasional gusts up to 20kts after
18Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 58 71 53 73 / 60 20 20 0
Clarksville 57 70 50 74 / 40 30 20 0
Crossville 55 65 48 65 / 80 20 20 0
Columbia 55 70 50 73 / 40 10 20 0
Cookeville 57 68 51 68 / 60 10 20 0
Jamestown 55 66 50 65 / 70 20 20 0
Lawrenceburg 56 69 49 72 / 50 10 20 0
Murfreesboro 56 71 50 72 / 60 10 20 0
Waverly 55 68 49 72 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......12
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1047 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gradually weakens offshore through Monday. A weak
frontal system will approach Monday night with a frontal wave
passing to the south and east on Tuesday. High pressure then
builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday. A weak backdoor cold
front will likely slide through Wednesday night. High pressure
quickly gets reestablished for the late week and likely remains
in control through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Dew point inland have dropped off more quickly than forecast,
especially across southern Connecticut ahead of the thicker
cirrus. Offshore stratus has been remaining south of Long
Island, however, stratus was developing across portions of
Suffolk county.
Both the upper level and surface ridge will continue to work
offshore overnight and gradually weaken. This will allow for a
weak return flow and increasing low-level moisture. There is
some uncertainty with the westward extent of some low-level
stratus that is forecast to move in off the ocean. The HRRR
continues to show low clouds across LI and coastal SE CT, with
mid and high level clouds moving in across western areas. It
then develops a SW flow late tonight that kind of scours the low
clouds to the east. Not buying into this scenario at this time
and will go with mostly cloudy skies developing everywhere
overnight and persisting through the night. Should the HRRR pan
out, the forecast could be very different heading into Monday.
As for any fog, with increasing clouds and some drier air near
the surface, have opted to keep it out for the time.
For lows, it will be a warmer night with lows around 40 inland
to 45 to 50 at the coast, about 5 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper low lifts out of the Mid Mississippi Valley on Monday,
sending a weak frontal system toward the area. Expecting a
mostly cloudy day with low clouds likely mixing out mid to late
morning, but there still should be a mid level deck that
continues to work in from the SW. There could be a brief period
of sun, but a low chance. It will remain mild with highs in the
low to mid 60s.
As the upper forcing gets closer to the eastern seaboard Monday
night, a weak frontal wave develops across the Mid Atlantic and
works northeast. Overrunning showers develop out ahead of the
low, mainly late evening through the overnight. The bulk of the
rain falls from after midnight into the morning hours Tuesday
with one to tenths of an inch at the coast, lesser amounts
north and west.
Showers may linger into Tuesday afternoon with the upper trough
moving through. Lapse rates do steepen and there is marginal
instability, but the question is will there be enough moisture
for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Have kept it south of the
area at this time.
Lows will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the 50s Monday
night with highs into the upper 60s Tuesday, close to 10 degrees
above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main theme for the long term period will be dry conditions
with above normal temperatures.
To begin the period a shortwave will pivot through by Tuesday
night based on the consensus of the global deterministic
guidance. In previous forecast packages there was some
uncertainty regarding low pressure closing off nearby to the
south for the mid week around the Wed night - Thu period, but
this has become increasingly of less concern with each
subsequent model iteration. Towards Friday a deep trough over
the western CONUS pivots east and begins to lift through the
nation`s midsection. The global guidance continues to show this
trough deamplify as its lift into the Midwest and Great Lakes
into the next weekend. At the same time ridging along the coast
and into the Western Atlantic is slow to break down. Therefore
the trend of above normal temperatures will continue into the
late week, and especially into next weekend when temperatures
will likely be a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal with record
warmth on the table. The record warmth with daytime maxes would
be more of a possibility for coastal locations as opposed to the
metro climate sites as records here are more impressive and
harder to reach.
As far as adjustments made to guidance, went with lower POPs
when compared to the consensus overall for the weekend. GFS
deterministic guidance was more aggressive with a cold front
holding together and potentially moving into the region on
Saturday, but other deterministic guidance was not in agreement
with this, especially the newer 12Z ECMWF. The overall height
field would suggest a lower chance of the front holding together
and getting into the region on Saturday as dynamics lift
northeast, thus the GFS appears to be an outlier here. Towards
late in the weekend, at the very tail end of the period slight
chance PoPs are introduced.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure continues to slide east of the area into the Western
Atlantic through the overnight, then remain offshore Monday.
Weak low pressure approaches to the west Monday night.
VFR. MVFR ceilings likely develop overnight at KISP and KGON,
with MVFR ceilings possible for the NYC terminals. Higher
confidence in MVFR ceilings is farther east for KISP and KGON,
where brief IFR is possible as well. Low clouds should lift and
scatter out by late morning, with VFR conditions returning
through the end of the TAF period.
Winds generally light and variable to near calm across the
region overnight. A light S to SW flow develops Monday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence in ceiling forecast, and timing, overnight into
Monday morning. Amendments may be needed.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday Night through Tuesday...MVFR or lower in showers.
.Wednesday-Friday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
An E swell will continue on the ocean waters into Tuesday, but
is forecast to drop below 5 ft early Monday morning. Winds will
be less that 10 kt from the SW Monday, increasing to 10 to 15 kt
on Tuesday, strongest on the ocean.
Sub SCA conditions are expected across the waters through mid
to late week. Ocean seas will be around 4 ft Tuesday night into
most of Wednesday with occasional NW to N gusts to around 20 kt.
Seas may once again be up to 4 ft at times on Thursday with a
NE to E flow with some gusts up to 20 kt.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
935 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will remain overhead through this
evening. Clouds will increase in coverage on Monday ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front will bring the chance of rain
showers Monday night into Tuesday. Following the frontal
passage, a strong ridge of high pressure will build across the
region on Wednesday. This will bring above normal temperatures
into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The surface high continues to shift further off shore overnight
as a shortwave trough approaches from the Tennessee River
Valley. Consequently, expect increasing clouds. Should stay dry
though overnight as an abundance of dry air remains entrenched
within the mid- levels of the atmosphere. Nighttime cloud cover
will limit the radiational cooling potential tonight, so we will
stay a bit on the mild side. At this point, think the cloud
cover (and also lower dewpoints than what most guidance depicts)
will also limit fog development despite some guidance showing
widespread fog. That being said, with several sites already
seeing low dew point depressions, have included a mention of
patchy fog for portions of the region overnight.
Nighttime lows will be around 10 degrees warmer compared to
last night. Looking at low to mid 40s within the Poconos,
northern NJ, and Lehigh Valley, with upper 40s/low 50s across
South Jersey, Delmarva, and the Philadelphia metro area.
High pressure will be out of the region by tomorrow morning.
Halloween looks okay weather-wise. Should be dry through most of
the day as moisture advection looks weak, and it will take time
for the mid-level dry air to erode for showers to develop.
Expecting mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with mild
temperatures. Temperatures will be slightly above average for
the end of October, with low 60s for the northern half of the
CWA with mid to upper 60s for Philadelphia on south. Introduced
slight Chc/Chc PoPs later in the afternoon/early evening, though
it looks like the main batch of rain will come through on
Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mid-level trough will pass from the Ohio Valley and lower
Great Lakes region Monday evening and offshore Tuesday
afternoon. Another trough axis will move across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday while ridging begins to build
across the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada. At the surface,
high pressure will be located to our south and east Monday night
as a weak cold front approaches then cross the area on Tuesday.
Weak high pressure will build in its wake Tuesday night, which
will persist through the end of the week.
The primary focus in the Short Term remains the system pushing
through the region late Monday through Tuesday. There has not
been much change in the guidance and thus no wholesale changes
to the forecast with this update. We are starting to get into
the range of some of the hi-res guidance and CAMs, at least
through Monday night, which has increased confidence with regard
to the timing and coverage of the showers. The main idea is
that much of the heaviest and widespread shower activity will
push into the area into the late evening hours from southwest to
northeast as the night progresses. This is good news for the
trick-or-treaters as much of the late afternoon and early
evening hours on Halloween should be largely dry save for
perhaps a few sprinkles in spots.
The greatest forcing (mid-level cooling, jet dynamics, and
height falls) will arrive overnight and thus the heaviest
precipitation should be after midnight Monday night. The highest
PWats will be across the coastal plain, generally along and
southeast of I-95, and so the great coverage and intensity of
showers should be in this area. PoPs were nudged up a bit in
this area as the confidence has increased. The cooling mid-
levels and increasing moisture in the column will result in some
increasing elevated MUCAPE, with values rising into the 250-500
J/kg range. This should result in some lightning/thunder
potential with the stronger/deeper convection that develops
overnight and through early Tuesday. I have also added a mention
of thunder from along and southeast of I-95 to the forecast
with this update.
The overcast skies and increasing low-level moisture will
prevent temperatures from falling much Monday night, with
overnight minimums possibly occurring near or before midnight.
Lows will be upwards of 15 degrees above normal, mainly in the
mid to upper 50s.
The HRRR and NAMNest suggest the heaviest period of showers may
actually occur near or after daybreak Tuesday morning before
quickly diminishing and moving offshore into the afternoon. This
does make since conceptually, as the primary trough axis will
be pushing into the area through the late morning hours. The
only notable change to the forecast was to increase PoPs Monday
morning, mainly along and southeast of I-95 into the likely
category. Event total QPF values are expected to range from
around 0.1" or less northwest of I-95 to around 0.1"-0.25" along
and southeast of I-95. Locally higher amounts of 0.5"-1" are
possible across the coast plain, but no hydro impacts are
expected.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy into the afternoon on Tuesday
before beginning to scatter out late in the day before sunset.
Once the morning showers depart, winds will shift westerly
around 5-10 mph and temperatures will warm into the mid 60s to
around 70 degrees. This will be about 5-10 degrees above normal.
Dewpoints will climb into the upper 50s to low 60s, so it will
feel a bit muggy out there.
Somewhat drier air will filter into the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday, although the cold advection side of the weak
front will be less than impressive to say the least. The
building ridging upstream will continue to support above normal
temperatures behind the front through Wednesday (and all the way
through the weekend as well). Expect lows in the low to mid 50s
Tuesday night with highs in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees
again on Wednesday. Skies will be mostly clear/sunny.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will encompass most of the area for the remainder
of the week. Sunny skies with dry conditions are expected on
Thursday as temperatures will be slightly above normal. By
Friday, high pressure will begin to sink to our south and east
which will allow winds to become more southwesterly; allowing
warmer than normal temperatures for early November to surge into
our region by Saturday. Latest guidance shows that we could be
running as much as 10 degrees above normal with temperatures
reaching into the lower 70s. We have continued to mention the
slight chance of showers over the weekend, more so on Sunday
across our northern areas due to a weak boundary passing to our
north. Nonetheless, most of the region should end up fairly dry.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...Prevailing VFR conditions are likely overnight.
However, there is potential for ceilings to lower and for BR to
develop. Interestingly, MOS and LAMP guidance is depicting lower
conditions than deterministic models. Our in-house radiation
fog program shows higher chances for fog development (though it
should be noted that this won`t be a pure radiational fog event,
and the low clouds could preclude any fog development). All that
being said, this is low confidence, so I`ve continued prevailing
VFR, but included tempo MVFR during the most likely period for
any low ceilings or fog. Light and variable winds. High
confidence in light variable winds/low confidence in prevailing
VFR.
Monday...Any MVFR ceilings that do develop should lift out by
the mid to late morning. VFR through most of the day, though
with cloud bases will lower close to MVFR criteria later in the
day as showers approach. South/Southwest winds around 5 kt.
Moderate confidence
Outlook...
Monday night...MVFR to IFR restrictions likely developing as
ceilings lower and light to moderate showers move into the area.
Winds will be variable around 5 kts or less, but favoring a
southerly direction. Moderate confidence overall.
Tuesday...MVFR to IFR restrictions should begin to improve
after 15Z as ceilings begin to lift and showers exit the area.
Initially south to southwest winds 5 kts or less will shift to
the west and increase to around 5-10 kts between 15-18Z.
Moderate confidence overall.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with scattered
clouds. Shallow fog development is possible Tuesday night. Winds
settle out of the north then northeast around 5 kts. Moderate
confidence.
Thursday...VFR. NE to E winds less than 10 kt. High confidence.
Friday...VFR. S winds less than 10 kt. High confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for all ocean zones except the coastal
waters off of Monmouth County through 6 AM EDT Monday. Seas 4-6
feet. East/northeast wind around 10 kt, gusting up to 18 kt.
Monday...Holding off on an SCA for now as waves will be near 5
feet but not fully confident that we will get there with a
relatively light wind. Winds will shift to a more southerly
direction by the mid to late morning. Winds will be less than 10
kt along the coastal waters.
Outlook...
Monday night through Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible with seas lingering around 4-5 feet. Winds south to
southwest around 10-15 kts. Light to moderate rain showers
expected along with a few rumbles of thunder possible.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...No marine hazards are
expected at this time. Northwest winds 5-10 kts Tuesday night
will shift north then northeast around 10-15 kts by late
Wednesday. Seas 3-4 feet. Fair weather.
Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions. NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts
to 20 kt.
Friday...Sub-SCA conditions. E winds around 10 kt.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ451>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeSilva
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich/Johnson
SHORT TERM...Staarmann
LONG TERM...DeSilva/MPS
AVIATION...Hoeflich/Johnson/MPS/Staarmann
MARINE...Hoeflich/MPS/Staarmann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
615 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
High clouds have already started to move into our far southern
counties as of 1:45 PM and this trend will continue to progress
north through the afternoon and evening hours. These are associated
with increasing upper level moisture ahead of our next weather
system. These clouds, coupled with a modestly moist surface air
mass, will help to keep radiational cooling conditions more at bay
tonight despite the light and variable winds expected. As such, lows
areawide will be slightly warmer than last night in the upper 40s to
low 50s.
The upper levels are currently in a split flow pattern with the
southern branch stretching from the Intermountain West to the
Southern Plains. Upper flow across West Central Texas will remain
zonal overnight but an upper trough will be approaching the area
through the day on Monday. This trough will form over western
Arizona and dive southeast into Northern Mexico before rotating
north and east into Central Texas late Monday. The aforementioned
high cloud cover will linger through the day tomorrow holding high
temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Winds will begin to veer to the
south as a surface high pressure begins to develop in East-Central
Texas but overall winds will still be on the lighter side with a
weak pressure gradient across much of the area. Hi-res models are in
good agreement with the progression of the upper trough both
timing and placement-wise but the HRRR is quite a bit more
aggressive on chances for precip before 0Z Tuesday compared to
the completely dry NAM. Have decided to go with more of a blended
solution for this time frame with very low slight chance pops
mainly for areas south and west of the I-10 corridor with the
greater chances for precip in the following periods.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
Rain chances and cloud cover begin to increase Monday night as a
upper level trough tracks across the area trough midweek, with
high temperatures reaching into the mid 70s and overnight lows in
the upper 40s to mid 50s through Tuesday. Rain chances will be
mostly confined to areas south of I-20, and will likely remain as
light showers and after trick-or-treating is over. By late
Tuesday, this trough will push eastward quickly, allowing skies to
clear in it`s wake. Moist southerly flow will take over for
Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures will climb to the 70s
and low 80s during this time, with lows warming to the mid 50s and
lower 60s.
Global models continue to show a much stronger system, with a
deeper/broader trough swinging through the area late Friday and
Saturday. This system could bring more widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the area Friday night and Saturday. As is typical
with systems like this, the timing of the main features and rain
chances will likely change multiple times over the next few days,
so this system will be monitored closely.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022
VFR conditions and light winds will continue across West Central
Texas terminals through Monday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 48 72 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 49 75 51 74 / 0 0 20 10
Junction 48 76 52 75 / 0 10 50 20
Brownwood 47 75 52 74 / 0 0 10 10
Sweetwater 51 73 52 73 / 0 0 10 0
Ozona 50 72 52 70 / 0 10 40 10
Brady 50 72 54 71 / 0 0 30 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...07