Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/30/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
749 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Increasing cloud cover ahead of the next weather system will keep
overnight lows mild, falling in the middle 40s to low 50s.
Precipitation chances return late tonight and continue through
Monday. Temperatures will be near normal on Sunday and Monday, but
will be much warmer than normal Tuesday onward.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Regional radar mosaics show rain lifting across southeast Missouri
early this evening, with high-res model guidance suggesting it
should reach as far as the I-72 corridor toward 3-4 am. RAP model
soundings for Springfield show quite a substantial dry layer
around 7,000 feet still persisting around that time, so that early
time may be a bit too optimistic. However, areas south of I-70
will see a wind flow shifting more east-southeast overnight, which
will help get some moisture in that area a bit faster.
On Sunday, there will remain some struggle across the northern CWA
with moisture influx, but scattered showers should reach Peoria
toward midday. Highest rain chances should be focused over the
eastern CWA into afternoon, before the dry slot starts to work
into the area.
Forecast updates were mainly to refine rain trends through Sunday.
Temperatures generally are on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the northeast
US with surface ridging stretched westward into the Midwest states.
Further south, a surface low is positioned over the lower
Mississippi River Valley. The surface low is tied to a closed upper
low working over the southern Plains states early this weekend.
Further west of there, a subtle shortwave trough is noted on water
vapor imagery over the desert southwest states and will act to push
the closed low northeast into the Ohio River Valley as it rounds the
western periphery of an upper ridge. The two previously mentioned
features will be our focus for precipitation chances later this
weekend into early next week.
Cirrus on the northern side of the surface low will continue to
overspread the region today, acting as a blanket to keep
temperatures mild overnight. Precipitation chances look to hold off
until after midnight, with CAMs depicting scattered showers starting
to spread northward during the early morning hours of Sunday. The
majority of the precipitation looks to fall during the daytime hours
of Sunday as the surface low tracks through southeast IL. The low
will quickly lift toward the eastern Great Lakes Region going into
Monday, with the secondary shortwave filling in behind it. This will
reinforce the surface low and allow precipitation chances to
continue through the daytime hours of Monday. The latest suite of
models have come up slightly on rainfall totals mainly south of I-70
where 0.50-0.75" looks likely. At least 0.10" of rainfall looks
possible for locations east of I-55, which is highlighted by a 50%+
chance on the NBM QPF probabilities > 0.10". Lesser amounts on the
order of a few hundredths of an inch are expected along and west
of I- 55. Precipitation should come to an end later on Monday as
the upper wave lifts northeast and surface high pressure fills in
behind it.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Surface high pressure will control the weather through the remainder
of the new week. Southerly flow will feed in unseasonably warm
temperatures Tuesday onward, with many locations looking to be about
10 degrees warmer than normal (normals for early November should be
in the upper 50s to low 60s). Mostly quiet weather appears favorable
from Tuesday through at least Thursday. A shortwave trough will
spread over the Ohio River Valley by midweek, but dry air in the low
to mid-levels should keep any moisture from reaching the ground.
The next chance for precipitation looks to hold off until next
weekend or early next week as a cold front pushes through the area.
The upper pattern will be more progressive over the next week or so,
which is surely a sign of the season.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Ceilings expected to steadily lower as a storm system lifts
northeast overnight, but MVFR conditions likely to hold off until
15-18Z. NBM probabilities of IFR ceilings increase to around 50%
by 21Z from KSPI-KCMI, though the HREF ensembles are about 3 hours
slower in that regard. For now, will keep the sub-1000 foot
ceilings at KCMI where rain chances will be highest, with the
remaining TAF sites more in the 1000-1500 foot range through the
afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...NMA
SHORT TERM...NMA
LONG TERM...NMA
AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1023 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Tornado Watch 558 was cancelled before 10 PM for the remainder of
coastal MS and adjacent coastal water. Fortunately, the storms
ahead of the front progressed eastward much faster this evening
than earlier CAMs had advertised and has already pushed east of
the southern MS-AL border. However, this line of convection has
really started to slow down over the past hour or so as the low-
level flow out of the south parallels to the boundary. This may
allow for additional showers and storms that are forming over the
Gulf of Mexico to move inland and back into Jackson County between
11 PM and 3 AM. The good news is the environment will be less
favorable for severe storms as the low-level jet shifts east of
the area and the surface-based warm sector becomes increasingly
narrow and confined to the open waters.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Tornado Watch 558 was locally extended in time through 10 PM for
Harrison and Jackson Counties in coastal MS. While the discrete
storms has mostly moved out of SE MS, there`s still one last round
of convection with the front (this last line of storms were
approaching Gulfport at 7 PM). And while the low-topped
convection along the front has not featured much more than a
downpour, it is expected to catch up with the greater pre-frontal
surface-based instability (1000-1500 J/kg) that had been
previously outrunning it. Current VWP from MOB radar in addition
to the latest HRRR forecast soundings still show a favorable
hodograph for rotating storms with a 35-40 kt southerly low-level
jet and backed flow near the surface. Therefore, the trailing
storms could increase in intensity as it approaches and potentially
spawn brief tornadoes this evening. Unfortunately, it looks like
Jackson County (where several tornadoes were reported this
afternoon). The front will continue to slow its eastward progress
tonight as it becomes increasingly displaced from the primary low
that is tracking northward up the western side of the lower MS
River basin. This has two implication on hazards...(1) The threat
for severe storms could linger until just after midnight in far
eastern coastal MS and (2) the setup for locally heavy rainfall
and flash flooding still exists in coastal MS, especially east of
Gulfport. Several CAMs, most notably, the HRRR supports a narrow
band of enhanced rainfall late this evening over Jackson County with
2-4" possible. Fortunately, dry antecedent conditions should
limit the severity of any flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
The current convection associated with a surface low over NW LA
should exit the area by tonight. The current tornado watch is
expected to expire by 7pm tonight as the convection exits the
area. The main area of concern as of recently is a broken band of
supercells in Jackson County, as we have one confirmed tornado
from this. This area has slightly higher wind shear, so these will
continue to be closely monitored until they exit the radar
tonight. Tomorrow, we return to zonal flow behind the front
tomorrow, and conditions will be dry and mild as surface high
pressure builds in. We look to stay dry on Monday as PW looks to
stay less than an inch and we remain in zonal flow aloft. Lows
were slightly adjusted downward for the drainage areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Things stay pretty quiet Monday night with another night of near
seasonal temperatures dropping into the low to mid 50s across
northern areas and the mid 50s to lower 60s across southern
areas. Next upper disturbance will move eastward through the Lower
Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Looks
like there should be enough moisture to fire off some scattered
showers, but overall accumulation won`t be much.
That system doesn`t really push a front through and in its wake,
high pressure builds in once again with dry weather expected for
the second half of the week. Expect temperatures to warm to
around 5-10 degrees above normal by Thursday and will stay there
through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
The last line of showers and storms along the cold front is slowly
moving eastward across GPT. Rainfall intensity is high enough to
produce IFR or VLIFR vsby restrictions at GPT. Expect this to
improve by 01Z. Otherwise, conditions have been improving from
west to east behind the front. However, post-frontal stratocu is
anticipated to develop overnight, especially across northern
terminals. This is where forecast soundings are most pronounced
with cold-air advection around 900 mb, resulting in saturation
(and low clouds) as moisture remains trapped in the layer beneath
the subsidence inversion. There was enough confidence to go with
MVFR CIGs for all TAF sites except MSY-NEW-HUM late this evening
and overnight. The NBM probabilistic guidance indicates about a
30-40 percent probability of CIG lowering to IFR late tonight for
the northern terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
The SCA was extended through this evening for the southern coastal
waters from Boothville-Southwest Pass, northeastward through the
coastal MS waters with breezy southerly winds ahead of a cold
front around 20 kt and gusts up to 30 kt. The strongest pre-
frontal southerly winds will linger across the eastern most zones
into the overnight where the SCA was extended through the rest of
the night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 54 72 53 75 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 55 75 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 55 75 51 78 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 58 75 58 76 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 60 74 56 77 / 70 0 0 0
PQL 60 74 52 76 / 90 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ536-538-
552-555-572.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ557-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ538-552-
555-572.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ575-577.
&&
$$
UPDATE....JK
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...JK
MARINE....JK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
916 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022
No major changes to the current forecast, just a few minor
adjustments. Slowed down precip onset across the Cumberland
Plateau/Central East TN Valley by a few hours based on last
several runs of the HRRR and RAP. This keeps the Central TN Valley
dry until tomorrow morning. Otherwise, just a few temp/dewpoint
changes to match up with latest hourly obs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Key Messages:
1. Dry tonight with increasing clouds.
2. Scattered rain showers on Sunday with light precip amounts.
Discussion:
We remain dry tonight with increasing clouds as the
stacked, closed low approaches from the west with southwesterly
flow aloft.
As the upper level low shifts eastward tonight and Sunday, upper
diffluence increases across the region and low-level southerly
flow increases in response to the upper divergence. As moisture
increases from the south, widespread rain showers will become
likely with an overcast sky. Highest PoPs are expected across
southeast Tennessee, the Cumberland Plateau, and the central
valley with lowest PoPs across the western foothills of the
Appalachians due to southeasterly downslope flow. This will also
lead to the highest max temperatures on Sunday being across the
lower elevations just west of the Appalachian chain.
Overall rain totals appear minimal with 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain
most likely with the highest amounts across the southern
Cumberland Plateau. Downslope winds will limit overall rainfall
across the lower elevations west of the Appalachians and across
northeast Tennessee.&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Key Messages:
1. Rain showers Sunday night through Monday night.
2. Low chance for additional showers Wednesday.
3. Ridging rebuilds starting Thursday and continues through Saturday
with continued above normal temperatures.
Discussion:
As the next system moves in late Sunday a surface low will be over
St Louis with warm air advection producing rain across the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys. There is limited instability so thunder should be
minimal but showers could produce 0.25 to 0.75 inches Sunday night
into Monday. Surface high pressure over North Carolina will only
very slowly shift eastward Monday. Upper trough slowly advances east
into the Tennessee Valley Monday as surface low moves northeast
toward southern Michigan. A trailing shortwave Monday night will
keep a chance of a few more showers across northern sections through
early Tuesday.
High pressure builds in Tuesday with some brief clearing. Models
continuing to show another weak system developing over the Gulf
coast Tuesday and Tuesday night just south of the base of the upper
trough over the lower Mississippi Valley. This system will get
caught up in the upper level southwest flow and weaken Wednesday. A
weak upper low may form overhead as the system moves northeast
across the forecast area. Will continue to forecast a few light
showers with cloudy skies Wednesday. From Thursday through Saturday
a ridge aloft builds over the southeast and into the Tennessee
Valley. Surface high pressure will build over the southeast states
too. Expect sunny skies and warm temperatures for the last three
days. Highs will be about 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Key Messages:
1. Rain showers Sunday night through Monday night.
2. Low chance for additional showers Wednesday.
3. Ridging rebuilds starting Thursday and continues through Saturday
with continued above normal temperatures.
Discussion:
As the next system moves in late Sunday a surface low will be over
St Louis with warm air advection producing rain across the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys. There is limited instability so thunder should be
minimal but showers could produce 0.25 to 0.75 inches Sunday night
into Monday. Surface high pressure over North Carolina will only
very slowly shift eastward Monday. Upper trough slowly advances east
into the Tennessee Valley Monday as surface low moves northeast
toward southern Michigan. A trailing shortwave Monday night will
keep a chance of a few more showers across northern sections through
early Tuesday.
High pressure builds in Tuesday with some brief clearing. Models
continuing to show another weak system developing over the Gulf
coast Tuesday and Tuesday night just south of the base of the upper
trough over the lower Mississippi Valley. This system will get
caught up in the upper level southwest flow and weaken Wednesday. A
weak upper low may form overhead as the system moves northeast
across the forecast area. Will continue to forecast a few light
showers with cloudy skies Wednesday. From Thursday through Saturday
a ridge aloft builds over the southeast and into the Tennessee
Valley. Surface high pressure will build over the southeast states
too. Expect sunny skies and warm temperatures for the last three
days. Highs will be about 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Clouds and precip chances will continue to slowly increase across
the area through the period ahead of an incoming upper level
system. CHA will go MVFR later tonight as ceilings lower and
should remain MVFR through the end of the period. Downsloping
winds at TYS and TRI should keep both terminals VFR through the
period but a prob30 is in at TYS tomorrow afternoon for MVFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 65 56 70 / 30 70 60 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 70 55 69 / 10 60 70 50
Oak Ridge, TN 50 67 54 68 / 10 70 70 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 69 50 67 / 0 30 70 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SR
LONG TERM....TD
AVIATION...SR