Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/29/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
748 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022
- Potential for fog tonight
Clear skies and light winds will allow for excellent radiational
cooling tonight. Comparing the current surface dewpoints to the
forecast low temperatures shows a risk for fog. The HRRR has been
indicating pockets of dense fog especially over our eastern CWA
for late tonight/early Saturday morning. We will maintain this
potential in the forecast and mention it in the updated HWO.
- Potential for showers Sunday into Monday
Overall the qpf in this period looks light. Recent models trends
have shown a downward potential for qpf amounts...adding
confidence that this will be a light rain event for the region.
Basically the mid level low in TX opens up and lifts out as
shortwave...losing amplitude as it enters Southern MI later
Sunday. Moisture profiles show the DGZ not saturated when the low
levels moisten up. There is some low level convergence in Southern
Lower MI Sunday Night into Monday morning as the low level jet
lifts into IN and OH. Given that the low levels will be moist
then...there could be some drizzle/light rain at those times. We
will feature the highest POPs over Southern Lower MI given their
proximity to the low level jet...lift and moisture.
- Warming up next week
An impressive 40 to 50 knot southerly low level jet sets up across
the Plains for the middle of next week and it remains there into
to the end of the week. This feature will draw up an unseasonably
warm air mass into MI with 925 mb temps shown to make a run into
the teens. This supports high temperatures into the middle to
upper 60`s. These values are roughly 10 to 15 degrees above the
normal values for this time of the year. An increased potential
to reach 70 exists as well with Wednesday to Friday likely to be
the warmest days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022
While for the most part I expect clear skies and light winds
through Saturday, it does seem DENSE FOG is more than possible
over our eastern CWA. The prevailing, but light southeast wind at
low levels will bring surface dew points in the mid 40s over Lake
Erie, northwestward into our eastern CWA early Saturday morning.
Since surface temperatures are expected in the lower to mid 30s
over our Southeast CWA, that mixing of temperatures in the mid 30s
with dew points in the mid 40s create dense fog. The only real
question here is what the exact wind direction below 1000 ft above
the ground will really be.
For now, I have put dense fog at JXN only but it may impact LAN
and possibly TAF sites as far west as AZO and GRR. We will have to
watch this closely.
The fog will be shallow and should mix out quickly even though it
is late October. Once it mixes out the air remains dry so skies
will be mostly clear. Winds will be light and variable even
during the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022
The quiet weather is forecast to continue over the marine zones
through the weekend. The pressure gradient remains weak through
Saturday which will act to keep the winds mostly under 10 knots.
The flow will be out of the east southeast. Given the offshore
component...wave heights will mostly be under 1 foot.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
725 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022
Quiet and mild weather persists through the first half of the
weekend, with temperatures peaking in the 60s. Precipitation
chances return late Saturday night through Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022
Not much to write home about at the moment, with central Illinois
remaining under a ridge axis from high pressure centered over New
England. Cirrus has been skirting by to the south, but skies are
otherwise clear. A few of the high-res models continue to
highlight the potential for patchy fog near and north of
Bloomington toward early morning. Latest NBM shows probabilities
of visibility below 3 miles as high as 50% in that area, though
RAP soundings would suggest this would be very shallow if it
occurred. Some patchy higher probabilities are also shown
elsewhere, though they seem to be centered where there has been
contamination of visibilities at observing sites due to harvest
activities. For now, will keep this fog mention limited to areas
near I-39.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022
An elongated area of surface high pressure remains stretched from
the northeast US westward into the central Plains states, keeping
things quiet here locally. Temperatures as of 2 pm are sitting in
the upper 50s to low 60s. Clear skies/radiational cooling overnight
will allow temperatures to drop into the middle to upper 30s. There
could be some areas of patchy fog overnight as moisture from Lake
Michigan gets advected southwestward. Most guidance keeps the
majority of this over northern parts of the state, though some of
our northern counties could get grazed by some patchy fog.
Further south, an upper closed low and its associated surface low
are working over the southern Plains states. This will start to lift
northeast going into Saturday, increasing cloud cover from south to
north throughout the day. Broad WAA out ahead of the system will
allow temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today on Saturday
with values expected to peak in the middle to upper 60s. We will
remain dry throughout the daytime hours of Saturday with
precipitation chances returning by late Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022
The aforementioned low will lift into the Ohio River Valley Sunday
into Monday, with precipitation chances spreading northward as it
does so. Rain chances start to increase late Saturday night, with
light precipitation continuing through much of Sunday and the
first half of Monday. Rainfall amounts don`t appear to be
particularly high, though any rainfall we receive will be
beneficial as most of the CWA has only seen 25-75% of their normal
rainfall over the last 30 days despite the heavier rains that
were seen earlier this week. Ensemble guidance continues to paint
the "higher" rainfall amounts along and south of the I-70 corridor
with lesser amounts further north/northwest of there. NBM
probabilities currently run a 40-50% chance of receiving 0.50" of
rain south of I-70, with areas near and east of I-55 looking to at
least receive 0.10" or more. Not expecting any thunderstorms with
this system as the better moisture and instability will be focused
south of here.
Precipitation should come to an end later on Monday as the surface
low continues to lift into the eastern Great Lakes Region and high
pressure settles in behind it. Southerly return flow will bring a
period of unseasonably warm temperatures from Tuesday onward with
highs possibly reaching the middle to even low 70s some days. The
CPC`s 6-10 day outlook is in agreement with this as they are
highlighting a 70-80% chance for above normal temperatures over the
state of Illinois from the middle of next week into next weekend.
For reference, our normal high temperatures for early November
should be in the middle to upper 50s.
Although the pattern remains progressive though the next week and
beyond, the confidence in additional precipitation chances beyond
this weekend remain low. The NBM continues to show low end
chances for precipitation by the end of next week tied with an
upper trough swinging through. However, guidance vastly differs in
location and timing with this system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022
Main aviation concern is potential for some patchy late night fog,
seemingly focused near a weak boundary. Latest NBM highlights
about a 40% chance of visibility below 3SM just north of KBMI,
though soundings show this would be fairly shallow. Will include a
TEMPO period for MVFR conditions there and continue to evaluate.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with
little in the way of cloud cover until Saturday afternoon, and a
northeast wind gradually trending toward the southeast.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...NMA
SHORT TERM...NMA
LONG TERM...NMA
AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
856 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022
Dry and mild into early Sunday before showers overspread the area
late Sunday, and continue into Monday. Dry and mild weather follows
for the remainder of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022
Forecast on track with clear skies and light winds allowing for
rapid drop in temps, especially in the east where dewpoints are
lower. HRRR suggests some lower vsbys very late tonight as temps
approach dewpoints, but not sure crossover temps will be fully met
and if there is any fog that manages to form should be rather
shallow and confined to portions of NW Ohio. As mentioned in TAF
discussion will just monitor conditions into the overnight hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022
Quiet/tranquil wx this period ahead of ejecting srn stream low.
Brief mid level ridge bump ahead of this sys will yield about a cat
warmer temps tomorrow versus today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022
Initially intense srn stream low will open Sat night and
shear/weaken rapidly newd as it ejects through the ern lakes. This
will spread some showers across the area late day and which continue
into first half of Monday before diminishing by aftn. Little
advective change with this sys given srn origins although Sun mos
derived temps look too optimistic.
Thereafter fairly vigorous height amplification aloft expected
across the ern US in response to large amplitude trough development
through the wrn US. This will yield a mild and dry period through
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022
Perfect flying conditions with northeast winds remaining AOB 10
kts and little more than some passing cirrus. Marine layer off Lk
Erie likely to come inland some across NW Ohio, but still no
strong signals at this point it would reach KFWA (although it has
been known to happen). Will defer to next issuances to monitor
trends, but suspect it should be a non issue here.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Fisher
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
848 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure to our north will extend across the region
through early Sunday. A low pressure system will approach from the
west on Sunday, bringing a chance of rain late Sunday through Monday
night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 848 PM Friday...
No significant changes were made this evening as the inhereted
forecast is on track.
Downstream of a potent mid-level low located over the TX/OK border,
broad ridging along the eastern US was evident on water vapor this
evening. At the surface, a 1032 mb high was centered over south-
central PA, extending nerly flow down into central NC. Additionally,
a stalled sfc boundary was located just offshore the Carolina
coastline promoting light rain/drizzle along and just inland from
the coast. Precipitation chances will continue to be low overnight,
with just patchy drizzle possible primarily across the Sandhills and
southern Coastal Plain where the highest anomalous PWAT will reside
(~1 to 1.25 inches or ~130 to 160 % of normal). Otherwise, the sfc
pressure gradient between the high and the stalled offshore boundary
should remain relatively tight overnight especially across the east.
As such, locations along and east of I-95 will continue to
experience gusts of 15 to 20 kts at times through tomorrow morning.
Lastly, given the extensive cloud cover expected, overnight lows
will remain relatively warm for this time of year in the upper 40s
to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Friday...
As high pressure weakens over the Northeast, skies may manage to
partly mix out during the daytime hours, although cloud cover will
increase once again overnight from west to east with an approaching
low pressure system. However, this entire time period should be dry.
Highs will be similar to today, with values in the 60s. Overnight
lows should be a bit colder than tonight, considering there will be
a period of radiational cooling in the evening before cloud cover
thickens. Lows will be in the 40s, with some upper 30s possible in
the usual cool spots such as Roxboro.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...
Sun through Mon night: Central NC will see continued influence from
a 1025-1030mb surface high pressure system over the Northeast Sunday
morning, but should slowly weaken throughout the day into Monday as
it begins to slip east into the northern Atlantic. An occluded
surface low over Arkansas will lift north into the OH Valley by
Monday morning, as it does, it will pull a warm front slowly
northward and through central NC by 12z Tuesday; although,
confidence on this is low given the NAM usually handles CAD erosion
scenarios the best and the 12z NAM does not go beyond 00z Tuesday.
Strengthening flow within the 850mb layer Sunday night into Monday
morning will overrun the warm frontal boundary to the south
increasing isentropic upglide in the western Piedmont leading to
light to moderate stratiform rain.
Precipitation chances increase Monday into Monday night as
subtropical ridging builds into the Southeast ahead of the
amplifying trough to the west, strengthening a 70-100kt jet from
southern TX into the southern Mid-Atlantic by 18z Monday/00z
Tuesday. The enhancement in upper forcing will work in tandem with a
trailing cool/occluded front and increased moisture transport in the
925-850mb layer Monday night into Tuesday. Mostly light to moderate
stratiform is expected, but latest runs of the GFS depict 50-150
MUCAPE overspreads central NC Monday night which may slightly
enhance precipitation rates during this time.
High should remain below normal (60s) on Sunday with the continued
CAD regime in place with increasing cloud cover overnight keeping
lows 5-10 degrees above normal (upper 40s to low/mid 50s). On
Monday, highs will be a little more difficult and will be dependent
on the erosion of the CAD airmass. Current forecast has warm
southerly flow eroding the CAD in the Sandhills and the Coastal
Plain (mid/upper 70s), with cooler conditions across the northwest
and northeast Piedmont (mid 60s). -AVS
Tue-Fri: No particularly hazardous weather is in sight, although
conditions will be a bit unsettled mid week amidst a broad SW flow
over Mexico into the Southeast states. The mean trough to our W and
NW remains split, with the northern shortwave trough over the Ohio
Valley Tue morning, while the southern trough sits over NM/TX.
Models have trended generally deeper and slower with the Ohio Valley
wave (esp the GFS, which is slightly slower than the ECMWF), such
that we`ll need to extend pops through Tue morning in the E half,
where 1"+ PW will linger ahead of the wave. This shortwave trough
will move off the Mid Atlantic and Northeast coast Tue night, as its
attendant weak surface front settles just to our S, leaving behind a
prominent mid level shortwave ridge that moves across the Carolinas
through Wed morning, propelled by the ejection of the NM/TX wave
northeastward through the mid Miss Valley (the GFS is slightly
faster than the ECMWF with this). With this brief shot of mid level
dryness and stability will come a pop respite late Tue through Wed
morning. But then rain chances may return Wed afternoon into early
Thu as the shearing Miss Valley wave tracks ENE then E with a
negative tilt through the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes into the Mid
Atlantic/New England region. There are vast differences between the
GFS and ECMWF in terms of available moisture (the GFS`s Wed PW is
more than double that of the ECMWF) and deep layer forcing for
ascent (the GFS has much stronger upper jetting and therefore
stronger divergence as compared to the ECMWF) over NC, resulting in
the former developing widespread convection over and south of the
old frontal zone, including over our far S and SE, with lighter
precip to the N over the rest of central NC. The ECMWF and its drier
air and lack of deep lift generates little to no precip for our
area. Given the run-to-run variability of the op GFS and the low
probabilities of measurable precip on the CMC/GEFS/EPS grand
ensemble, will go with very low to no pops. Heights aloft rise
markedly over NC Thu evening through Fri, with baggy troughing out
over the NW Atlantic and a deep closed low diving over AZ
sandwiching strong ridging from the N Gulf into the Gulf states/Mid
South/interior Southeast by late Fri. Surface high pressure will
strengthen over the interior Mid Atlantic region during this time as
well. Expect dry weather, with above normal confidence. Temperatures
will be above normal through the period, warmest on Tue and Fri,
with thicknesses likely to be 10-20 m above normal. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 818 PM Friday...
Through 00Z Sunday: Satellite shows an area of MVFR cigs slowly
drifting westward across central NC. Latest HRRR shows these clouds
overspreading all of central NC late this evening, reaching the
Triad by approx 03Z. In addition, radar shows patchy light rain or
drizzle, which will result in locally lowers cigs. Otherwise, cigs
and flt conditions will begin to improve from NE to SW just prior to
sunrise, with MVFR lingering the longest Saturday morning across the
Triad. By late morning Saturday into the afternoon, ceilings
should eventually improve back to VFR.
Outlook: Dry VFR weather is expected Saturday night and Sunday. The
chance for showers and restrictions will move into INT/GSO Sunday
evening and expand to all sites for Monday and Monday night. A
return to dry VFR conditions is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Swiggett/Hartfield
AVIATION...np/Green