Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/28/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
549 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Strong winds are developing across most of the eastern plains
late this afternoon and will continue through most of the night.
We have issued a wind advisory for Guadalupe and Quay Counties on
south from now through 400 AM MDT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Mountain snow and lower elevation showers should clear out from
west to east tonight into the first half of Friday as the low
pressure system exits into the Permian Basin of West Texas.
Temperatures will remain cool on Friday across eastern areas due
to lingering cloud cover with warmer temperatures west of the
central mountain chain.
Weak disturbances will move across the state Halloween weekend through
early next week. Some precipitation is possible across
northeastern zones and the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
mountains late Sunday thanks to a weak backdoor front. Breezy to
windy conditions look to make a return by mid next week ahead of a
developing storm system along the Pacific coast. Temperatures
will remain just below normal areawide through Monday. Areas east
of the central mountain chain will warm to a few degrees above
normal beginning mid next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
The upper low is currently moving southeast over Albuquerque per the
latest water vapor satellite imagery, with radar imagery showing
showers and a few storms beginning to focus along the east slopes of
the Sangre De Cristos where thundersnow is likely and a Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect. Winds are still on the uptrend this
afternoon and a Wind Advisory remains in effect for the western
mountains/highlands and the south central mountain and adjacent
eastern highlands including southwest Chaves County. Winds will
decrease this evening in the advised area, but trend up across the
eastern plains behind the backdoor portion of the cold front. The
latest HRRR and HREF show precipitation following the upper low
southeast toward Roswell after midnight, with low stratus filling in
across the eastern plains overnight. Cold air advection overnight
will result in colder lows than last night`s and generally 5-10
degrees below normal central and west. Low stratus will be slow to
erode Friday across the eastern plains as the upper low slows it`s
eastward progress across west TX, making for a tricky high
temperature forecast for locales such as Clovis, Portales and
Roswell. A shortwave ridge will move over Friday into Friday night,
with clearing skies and efficient radiational cooling. However,
moisture trapped in the frontal layer across the east central and
southeast plains may result in low stratus/fog development late
Friday night, but lower forecast confidence at this time so left out
of our forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
A subtle upper level disturbance embedded in NW flow will move
through the state late Saturday, but will not impact sensible
weather conditions with mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures
expected. A deeper upper level disturbance will move southeast
from the Great Basin mid to late Sunday. This will lead to an
increase in cloud cover especially for southern zones. A weak
backdoor cold front indicated by the 12z NAM run will interact
with the upper level disturbance and could potentially produce
precipitation for northeastern zones and the eastern slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo mountains Sunday night.The departing upper level
disturbance will slowly move southeast into west Texas on
Halloween leaving slightly cooler temperatures under sunny skies
on Halloween.
Attention will then turn to the Pacific coast on Tuesday as an
upper level low deepens significantly. A shortwave ridge will
develop upstream over New Mexico on Tuesday with some breezy
conditions across the eastern plains due to a surface lee trough.
Winds should increase areawide starting Wednesday due to
increasing southwesterly flow in the form of a 100 kt jet streak
at 250 mb ahead of the upper level low. Some precipitation will be
possible in the Tusas due to orographic flow. The Euro has now
come in more in line with the GFS with a deep upper low over the
Desert Southwest by late next week with significant winter weather
impacts possible.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
An upper level low and associated back door cold front will
continue moving southeast across central and eastern areas this
evening and overnight, bringing windy conditions with a mix of
rain and snow showers. VFR conditions continue, but will lower to
MVFR conditions in precipitation, low clouds and fog overnight
across eastern NM, including KLVS, KTCC and KROW. In addition,
areas of mountain obscurations will prevail through the evening
hours. Improvement will be slow along the TX border Friday
morning with gusty winds continuing.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least
the next seven days. An upper level low and associated cold front
will move south across the area tonight, resulting in colder and
windy conditions with chances for wetting precipitation from the
central mountain chain east to the TX border. A warming trend will
begin Friday and continue into early next week, with daytime
temperatures reaching back up to near normal by Tuesday. A fairly
stable atmosphere will prevail from Friday through Monday, making
for a mixed bag of poor to good ventilation. A more potent upper
level trough/low will approach around the middle of next week,
leading to increased winds and chances for wetting precipitation.
The upper low is forecast to move slowly east across the region
around late week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 26 57 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 17 56 19 58 / 10 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 22 54 24 57 / 5 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 15 58 20 60 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 21 55 24 57 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 17 58 19 61 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 21 57 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 30 53 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
Datil........................... 24 53 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 23 62 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 30 63 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 18 50 20 52 / 30 0 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 31 52 31 54 / 30 0 0 0
Pecos........................... 28 53 28 56 / 60 0 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 19 49 18 52 / 40 0 0 0
Red River....................... 14 45 14 49 / 40 0 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 11 46 8 50 / 70 0 0 0
Taos............................ 18 51 17 55 / 50 0 0 0
Mora............................ 26 49 23 55 / 80 0 0 0
Espanola........................ 26 57 27 60 / 40 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 29 52 30 54 / 50 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 25 55 27 57 / 40 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 34 57 36 60 / 20 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 33 59 34 62 / 20 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 29 61 30 63 / 20 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 32 59 33 62 / 20 0 0 0
Belen........................... 28 60 30 63 / 10 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 30 60 30 64 / 20 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 26 60 28 63 / 10 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 30 60 31 64 / 20 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 26 60 29 62 / 10 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 31 56 33 59 / 20 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 31 59 32 62 / 20 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 33 61 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 31 51 31 52 / 30 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 30 54 30 56 / 30 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 28 54 27 57 / 40 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 25 55 24 59 / 40 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 26 51 28 56 / 50 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 29 53 29 57 / 30 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 30 53 31 57 / 40 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 34 56 35 60 / 20 5 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 30 49 31 55 / 30 5 0 0
Capulin......................... 29 51 27 56 / 70 5 0 0
Raton........................... 27 57 21 61 / 60 0 0 0
Springer........................ 29 56 22 61 / 80 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 28 53 25 60 / 60 0 0 0
Clayton......................... 38 56 32 63 / 40 10 0 0
Roy............................. 34 55 29 57 / 50 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 41 59 33 62 / 40 5 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 40 58 34 63 / 50 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 43 58 33 64 / 40 20 0 0
Clovis.......................... 42 54 36 63 / 60 20 5 0
Portales........................ 42 53 35 65 / 60 30 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 42 58 36 65 / 60 10 0 0
Roswell......................... 44 57 38 69 / 40 10 0 0
Picacho......................... 38 56 36 64 / 30 10 0 0
Elk............................. 34 53 33 63 / 20 5 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for NMZ213>215-227.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM MDT Friday for NMZ234>238.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ239-240.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...40
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...40
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
625 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
The forecast remains mainly on track this evening. Made some minor
increases to sky cover across the east based on latest satellite
showing some stratus over the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Dry and mild conditions are expected through the short term. The
main challenges include fog potential tonight and how warm
temperatures will climb on Friday.
A cut-off low across northern New Mexico will continue southeast
through Friday, as the main steering flow/jet stream in place near
and north of the US/Canada border. Building upper-level ridging
across the area will set the stage for continued WAA and thus above
normal temperatures. Tonight, an opportunity for low cloud and/or
fog development exists. Sfc low pressure to the north and south
should place the CWA within a weak/nebulous sfc trough. This may
allow southerly winds to become light enough for fog development,
especially considering the bit of extra low-level moisture in place
from earlier scattered rainfall. A thick layer of cirrus across
Montana and western North Dakota is currently trying to build
southeast, but the 12z run of the HREF suggests this won`t be nearly
as thick by the time it overspreads the CWA, meaning temperatures
should be able to drop into the 30s. Fog appears most likely across
the James River Valley and Prairie Coteau through Friday morning,
per the HREF, HRRR and SREF (20-40% probability for <1 mi
visibility).
Like the previous shifts, have continued to nudge highs warmer than
inherited guidance on Friday due to favorable (dry) southwesterly
winds. Low to mid 60s for highs are about 10 to 15 degrees above
average for late October. Due to the mild and dry conditions, as
well as afternoon wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph, grassland fire
danger is high across the CWA Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
When the period opens Saturday morning, there is general consensus
amongst the deterministic and ensemble camps of solutions that the
flow pattern aloft is becoming nearly zonal across the northern tier
states and southern half of Canada provinces. It`s probable that a
transient/weak shortwave trof will be moving across the Dakotas into
Minnesota Saturday/Sunday, with the net effect being a wind shift to
northwesterly low level winds Saturday into Sunday, and perhaps some
passing mid/high cloudiness. The low level CAA following this
frontal boundary/surface trof will be rather weak (perhaps a couple
of degrees C cooler at 925hpa/850hpa heading into Sunday.
Zonal flow remains over the region Monday and Tuesday while a
longwave trof begins to be carved out along the CONUS west coast.
Multi-model ensemble progs basically propagate this longwave trof
over into the intermountain west through Thursday. This will result
in the CWA being under southwest flow aloft Wednesday and Thursday.
By Monday, mixing layer winds are supposed to switch back around to
the west or south, persisting through Wednesday. This is a WAA
pattern, backed up by the NAEFS/ENS S.A. 850hpa anomalies tables,
which highlight 850hpa temperatures potentially being between 1 to 2
standard deviations above normal during the first half of next week.
But really, the entire period from Saturday through Thursday looks
to be near to above normal, temperature-wise. It`s possible Thursday
could be a transition day to notably colder temperatures with a
strong cold frontal passage. Yesterday, Wednesday had this look and
feel. Today, that has been slowed in the deterministic solutions ~24
hours now to Thursday. Look for further slow downs in this frontal
timing/airmass change, as models/ensembles likely slow this large
longwave trof`s eastward movement even further in days to come.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected through Friday except near KATY where
some MVFR stratus remains. Improvement is forecast by midnight as
upper level clouds move in with a trough. Uncertainty exists
around some fog potential in the axis of the trough as it moves
southeast tonight and Friday.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Lueck
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
640 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
The mid-level trough drops into northern Texas by tonight, and
swings east into the weekend, sending a cold front through Texas
Friday afternoon. At the surface, the ridge along the western Gulf
of Mexico works further offshore into this evening allowing a pre-
frontal trough of low pressure to build along the coast as column
moisture increases. A few CAMs develop isolated convective activity
this evening along eastern Cameron County and offshore. The HRRR in
particular has been consistent run after run with at least one or
two thunderstorms developing near the coast and running offshore.
Model soundings show deepening low level moisture, with MUCAPE over
1600, DCAPE over 1100, shear over 40 kts, and a sweeping hodograph,
indicating a lone rotating storm or two are possible with damaging
winds being the primary hazard. Thickening cloud cover this
afternoon may help stifle some convective development inland.
Waterspouts will be possible offshore with this activity into this
evening.
SPC has placed most of Deep South Texas in a marginal risk of severe
weather for Friday, with activity possible along the warm front
Friday morning and then along the frontal passage in the afternoon,
generally more toward CRP and Kenedy County or offshore. MUCAPE
values jump to 3000, DCAPE hits above 1300, lapse rates steepen to
around 7C/km, and shear remains near 40 kts inland, so an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm will certainly be possible before the
front.
Behind the front, expect much drier air, and perhaps a few hours of
strong northwesterly winds. A Fire Danger Statement may be needed
for Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties, with RH values dipping
into the 20s, and sustained 20 foot winds above 15 mph through the
afternoon. Temperatures may warm a few degrees warmer on Friday
prior to the frontal passage due to a little compressional heating
ahead of fropa, with lows tonight remaining above normal and lows
Friday night dipping into the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Starting with the weekend, Saturday
should see the CWA dry out and cool down a bit with our highs in the
upper 70`s to low 80`s and lows in the 50`s. Winds from the
northwest will push the drier and cooler air into the area. Sunday,
winds are expected to decrease as a weak high pressure system moves
into the Rio Grande Valley enabling our temperatures to get into the
80`s for our highs and our lows to range in the upper 50`s to low
60`s.
Moving into the early part of the work week, we start to see our
first event of the long term that could potentially bring some rain
to our area. Another large scale trough will be making its approach
towards the Deep South Texas and Rio Grande Valley on Monday. This
trough may turn into a cut off low as it moves eastward. How the
models resolve the sequence of events for rain unfold very
differently. GFS shows a smaller shortwave interacting with a
coastal trough that leads to the rain event starting earlier on
Monday and becomes more widespread, while the EURO does not develop
this shortwave coastal trough interaction leading to rain chances
not flaring up till much later on Monday. Based on NBM, kept rain
chances isolated till late Monday and into Tuesday. This time period
seems to be the greatest chance of rain to occur as both GFS and EURO
show rain at this time with QPF showing some isolated amounts of
0.20 inches in some places. Heavier showers do seem to remain off
shore for the most part. Later on Tuesday, rain chances will
decrease as the cut off low moves away from the CWA. Temperatures
will range from upper 70s to low 80`s and lows in the 60`s during
this time.
Going from Wednesday and into Thursday, there will be some slight
rain chances on Wednesday, but that will be mostly to the coastal
counties and this would be for only the early morning. After that,
we`ll get into another dry period that with highs in the 80`s to low
90`s and lows in the upper 60`s to low 70`s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Quick-moving showers riding up through the RGV on southerly flow
beginning to show signs of waning over the past hour or so; this
trend is confirmed in recent HRRR model runs. Ceilings should
scatter back out to VFR over the next couple of hours, with
relatively good flying conditions continuing until mid-morning on
Friday. Then, a cold front sweeps through the RGV during the
afternoon hours, bringing gusty NW winds and another chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Any storms may bring short periods of
MVFR ceilings and possibly visibilities as well.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Now through Friday Night...Small Craft Caution conditions continue
this afternoon into this evening with breezy southerly winds. A few
showers or thunderstorms are expected to develop into this evening
and continuing offshore tonight. A thunderstorm or two may be
strong, with winds briefly gusting above 34 kts, heavy rain,
frequent lightning, hail, and isolated waterspouts. As a cold front
approaches the lower Texas coast on Friday, expect additional
showers and thunderstorms offshore and windy northwesterly winds
behind the front, creating a period of hazardous marine conditions
into Saturday. Waterspouts will again be possible near any showers
or thunderstorms Friday morning and along the frontal passage Friday
afternoon.
Have collaborated with neighbors to issue a Small Craft Advisory
from 18Z Friday to 18Z Saturday. The Laguna Madre may need a brief
SCA late Friday afternoon or potentially a marine weather statement
ahead of the post-frontal gusts to alert mariners.
Saturday through Next Thursday...Small Craft Advisories are likely
to be need on Saturday after the frontal passage occurs. Marine
conditions will start to improve during the day on Saturday as the
winds and seas calming down. Winds will be from the northwest on
Saturday and then after the weekend they will start to shift toward
the east during the work week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across portions of
Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties following the passage of a cold
front Friday afternoon. Relative humidity values drop into the 20s
and potentially upper teens, with 20 foot wind speeds over 15 mph
through mid to late afternoon. A brief Fire Danger Statement may be
needed.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 73 90 58 80 / 40 60 20 0
HARLINGEN 71 88 56 79 / 30 50 10 0
MCALLEN 72 88 57 81 / 20 50 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 86 56 81 / 10 20 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 84 64 75 / 50 50 20 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 88 58 78 / 50 50 10 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for
GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53-Schroeder
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...53-Schroeder
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
956 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 956 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022
A few areas of patchy fog are possible tonight. Thicker cirrus
should stay across the northern third of Indiana but light
northeasterly winds being enough to preclude more optimal
radiational cooling. Nevertheless, a few locations already have low
temperature/dew point depressions, and MRMS SAC-SMA soil moisture
values are still elevated after recent rain. Locations sheltered
from wind, and low-lying where drainage effects result in locally
lower temperatures will be most susceptible to fog tonight.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Highlights:
* Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures to finish out the week
.Synopsis...
As a positively tilted upper trough digs over New Mexico and Texas,
southwest flow and weak ridging remain across the Midwest and Ohio
Valley. At the surface, high pressure centered over Michigan shifts
eastward toward New England by tomorrow.
.This evening and tonight...
High pressure remains the dominant weather influence over the next
couple days across Indiana with dry and mild conditions expected.
Current satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies this afternoon
and evening with high clouds streaming SW to NE ahead of the
developing trough in the Southwest. With the upper jet streaming
right overhead, RAP forecast soundings and cross sections show
moisture increasing around 20-25 kft through tonight, resulting in a
thickening layer of high cirrus clouds coming from the SW. Only
impacts these clouds may have will be limiting radiational cooling
overnight and potentially preventing patchy fog from forming.
Despite the center of the high north and east of the region, surface
winds may go calm in a few spots under the subsidence inversion. If
clouds remain to the west or remain scattered enough and optimal
radiational cooling takes place, would not be surprised to see
patchy areas of fog develop in wind sheltered areas and around river
valleys. Confidence in any fog development remains low enough to
keep it out of the official forecast though. This still will be
something to keep an eye on tonight as a few spots this past morning
reported an hour or two of dense fog.
Temperatures yesterday morning ended up dropping a bit lower than
forecast across the region, closer to NBM 25th percentile, as
optimal conditions for radiational cooling took place. Depending on
how thick high cloud cover is tonight, low temperatures could follow
a similar trend. Have already been trending the forecast towards
clearer skies today as the thicker high clouds have remained to the
west. Trending lows toward the NBM tonight due to uncertainty with
how thick cloud cover will be.
.Friday...
High pressure shifts towards New England Friday while lower pressure
becomes more organized in Texas. Dry easterly flow sets up at the
surface in between the two systems leading to another tranquil
Autumn day across the region.
Forecast soundings indicate lower mixing heights under 3 kft due to
a persistent subsidence inversion around 850 mb, so keeping
afternoon gusts at around 10-13 kts max for the region. While
easterly flow isn`t the best for WAA, with high pressure to the
northeast, a warmer airmass across the southern states begins to
push northward ahead of the developing system in Texas. Temperatures
aloft at 850mb rise from +6 Thursday to +9-10C by Friday. The
subsidence inversion is also slightly higher Friday than it is
Thursday, so there is better potential for these slowly warming
temperatures aloft to mix down to the surface. Highs Friday are
expected to reach the low to mid 60s across the region, about 5 to 8
degrees warmer than Thursday. Forecast soundings show high level
moisture during the morning hours becoming drier during the
afternoon, so expect higher cirrus clouds to clear out later in the
day.
&&
.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Saturday...
An axis of surface high pressure aligned from the Mid-Atlantic back
across the southern Great Lakes will promote light easterly winds
and at least ample sunshine to start. This set-up should make for
the warmest day until the middle of next week, with mid- to upper
60s common across the region. Clouds will thickening through the
afternoon, however, as the next southern-stream system slowly
crosses the southern Plains. High confidence no organized rain
reaches our southwestern zones until Saturday evening.
Saturday Night through Monday...
Latest guidance is continuing to suggest increasing confidence on a
small upper system that will cross Indiana while lifting and
weakening on Sunday. This circulation will follow a similar
progression to Tuesday`s rainmaker...yet with even less vertical
wind shear and no instability...no thunder and generally lower
precipitation amounts are expected. Higher confidence that rainfall
through Saturday evening will be greater towards the Ohio Valley,
with potentially 0.75 inches south of US-50, with less than half
this amount expected along and north of I-70.
Ensembles are now indicating a somewhat more distinct second wave
then taking a slightly more-northwest path less than 24 hours
later...which should mean additional scattered rain showers crossing
northwestern portions of the Midwest, or probably translate to RW-
clipping at least our region`s northwestern counties. Suspect any
additional rainfall Monday would be light with forcing expected to
once again weaken as the supporting wave also lifts northward
towards the Great Lakes. Moderate confidence measurable rain will
have departed the CWA by 00z Monday evening...although considerable
spooky cloudiness and patchy drizzle could well linger through the
Halloween overnight amid weak troughiness.
Continued BKN/OVC clouds will hold daytime maximum temperatures near
seasonable levels. Modest winds will meanwhile veer through
southerly directions, combining with clouds to hold overnight
lows above normal, as dewpoints are eventually boosted above 50F
around the Monday timeframe.
Tuesday through Thursday...
Surface ridging will build northward from the Tennessee Valley into
the Midwest Tuesday, between a split upper flow that holds chilly
temperatures well north of the region. Generally dry conditions
should be the rule through the mid-week...although another southern-
stream wave is expected to track from Mississippi to the Carolinas.
Suspect this system provides mid/high clouds to Indiana, but so far
doubtful its more-southern track promotes any rain north of the Ohio
River. Temperatures will moderate from slightly to noticeably above
normal, with highs in the 60s, amid light to moderate southerly
breezes.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Impacts:
* No noteworthy impacts.
Discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail with periods of scattered to broken
cirrus clouds. Winds will be persistent in speed and direction from
the northeast.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...BRB
Short Term...CM
Long Term...AGM
Aviation...BRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
618 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a decent
shortwave straddling the Utah and Colorado borders. A trough
extended south of this feature into eastern Arizona. North of this
feature, a weaker shortwave was located over southeastern North
Dakota. Other features of note at the H5 level include, a vigorous
trough of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and another decent
trough of low pressure extending from southern portions of Hudson
Bay into northern New York state. Across the Midwest and most of the
eastern half of the CONUS, broad west southwesterly flow extended
from the central and southern plains eastward. At the surface today,
low pressure was located over southwestern Kansas. An inverted
trough axis extended north of this feature into Nebraska, roughly
along highway 83. East of this axis, winds were easterly, while west
of this axis, thy were from the north. Further east of the trough
axis, an area of rain showers extended from north central Kansas
into portions of central and northeastern Nebraska. Skies were
mainly clear west of the trough, while east of the trough, skies
were mostly cloudy to cloudy. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged
from 45 at O`Neill to 55 at Ogallala and North Platte.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
The main forecast challenges in the near term are precipitation
chances mainly in the far eastern forecast area this evening and the
threat for fog development overnight tonight into Friday morning.
Some recent convective type cloudiness has developed across
southwestern into south central Nebraska per the latest visible
satellite imagery. This convective cloudiness has led to some
isolated radar echoes over southwestern into south central Nebraska
over the past hour or two. Better coverage of showers and convective
cloudiness has been over north central Kansas. Current thinking
based on the HRRR soln is that this convection over swrn Nebraska
should end by late afternoon. However, convection over north central
Kansas, should lift north northeast into the evening hours into
Nebraska. The western periphery of this pcpn, may impact the far
eastern CWA through mid evening. That being said, will keep some
low pops in the far eastern forecast area through mid evening.
Overnight, the surface trough will remain anchored over central
portions of the forecast area. Calm to very light winds are
expected tonight along and east of this feature. The latest NAM12
and HRRR solns indicate a high potential for stratus development
tonight, mainly along and east of highway 83. This area coincides
with a fairly moist boundary layer from precipitation which fell
this morning and this afternoon. Forecast Bufkit soundings for
tonight indicate an inversion with good saturation up to this
layer, which also lends support to fog formation. Looking at the
DESI ensemble members for tonight, there is a decent signal for
fog as well, as the combined ensemble forecast is indicating a 60+
percent chance of visibilities below 2 miles over the central and
eastern Sandhills. Across SW Nebraska, these probabilities are
less and on the order of 40-60 percent probability for visbys
below 2SM. With some additional support from the SREF visibility
probabilities, will introduce patchy fog across the area,
generally east of highway 61 for tonight with the best chances
generally east of highway 83 from Valentine to North Platte. The
upper level low, currently over northern New Mexico, will track
into west Texas tonight, then northern Texas on Friday. Across
western and north central Nebraska, winds will shift around to the
southwest then south by Friday afternoon. Highs will be warmest
in the west with the lower to middle 60s. Across the central and
east, lingering clouds/fog in the morning, may hold highs to the
upper 50s to around 60. For Friday night, the DESI ensembles are
indicating some limited potential for fog Saturday morning.
However, with not much support from the SREF, will forgo mention
of fog with this forecast package.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
The upper level low and trough will lift from the Arklatex into
Ohio valley this weekend. Dry and seasonal conditions are expected
with highs in the 60s. A secondary upper level trough, will slide
along the Mexico/US border mid week with a stronger, more
amplified trough approaching the swrn CONUS midweek next week.
Beyond Thursday, precipitation chances will begin to increase as
the trough approaches the four corners. There are some decent
disagreements with the path of this trough between the GFS and EC
solns this morning. On common theme is that it will be too warm
for frozen precipitation across the area. In fact, both solns hint
at very moist air pushing into the area next weekend, which may
even support the threat for thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsby appear likely across parts of swrn
and ncntl Nebraska from 06z-09z tonight through 15z-18z Friday.
The area of concern is along and east of highway 61 across swrn
Nebraska and the areas east of highway 83 south of highway 20
across ncntl Nebraska. Flight conditions should improve by 18z
and VFR is expected in this area 18z-00z Friday.
Elsewhere, VFR is generally expected tonight and Friday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
703 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Things are still on track for a fairly active evening/night. The
dryline, while not well defined, is located near the central Rolling
Plains. Some light rain showers have developed ahead of the dryline
across the Big Country. Elevated reflectivity has started showing up
on radar within the past couple hours mostly in line with what the
HRRR has been showing since yesterday. Overall models have performed
well with the location of the upper low as it is currently over the
area of Farmington, New Mexico and is currently moving southeast.
There is still some uncertainty in the timing of convection for
later today, but the overall consensus is convection will start
around/after 00Z east of I27/US87 as better lift from the
approaching upper low moves over the region. Capping at the low
levels will inhibit much development until upper lift can be
attained. There is a slight threat for severe convection this
evening mainly across the Rolling Plains with the main threats being
wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to one inch in diameter.
Additional thunderstorm development across much of the FA will be
possible later tonight as the upper low moves over the region
allowing mid level lapse rates to steepen. While the severe threat
is low with this activity, some severe gusts will be possible in
stronger storms. The threat for thunder will diminish later tonight
as a cold front pushing into the region. The upper low will move
just to the south of the FA late tomorrow morning. Precip will
transition to being more stratiform-like as the FA will be on the
back side of the upper low. Stratiform precip, and accompanying
cloud cover, will persist through much of the day as the upper low
slowly moves towards central Texas. The combination of precip, cloud
cover, and cold front will keep tomorrow`s highs on the chilly side
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Any remaining light precipitation should quickly come to an end late
Friday as the upper low continues to push east of the region. With
moist conditions, as winds become light and skies clear, we could
see the formation of patchy fog for areas on the Caprock Saturday
morning. As this low moves to the east, a shortwave trough will dig
into the western CONUS, building an upper ridge over our region.
This will start a slow warm-up through at least the beginning of the
week, with 60s expected for highs on Sunday and upper-60s and low-
70s expected by Tuesday. A shortwave trough will form over the
western CONUS early Monday and dig southeast. This will result in a
lee cyclone forming east of the Rockies, bringing breezy downslope
winds to the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. These winds will
result in increased warming, bringing temperatures in the mid-70s
mid-week. Models start to diverge going into the late week with a
trough/low building over the west coast and moving east. The speed
and depth of this low/trough will determine if we see rain or not
late in the week! GKendrick
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Thunderstorm is currently impacting KCDS but this is expected to
move east of the airport by 02z. Elsewhere virga showers will
continue to move through the area which may lead to gusty and
erratic winds. IFR conditions are expected to develop at all three
sites early Friday morning with showers persisting through much of
the day. Ceilings should begin to lift by Friday afternoon however
MVFR conditions still appear likely to persist through the end of
this TAF period.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...58
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
732 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
.UPDATE...
Minor update to sky for the remainder of the evening and overnight
hours as stratus is hanging on a little longer across the upper
Snake highlands. HRRR may have a better handle on this, eroding it
after midnight but still showing high clouds entering the region
late.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 140 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
Widespread clouds are taking their time clearing this afternoon, but
they should trend south/east and out of our area as sunset
approaches. While the setup doesn`t look as ideal as this AM and the
airmass overall is a bit drier...mostly clear skies, solid
radiational cooling, and light winds could still result in some
patchy fog late tonight/Fri AM, with the HRRR focusing on the Mud
Lake region up into Fremont County and the Teton Valley for the best
chance of development, so included mention of this in the forecast
despite the HREF and NBM 4.1 being a little more pessimistic with
little to no development. Otherwise, shortwave-style ridging keeps
us quiet and dry Fri. A weak shortwave trough is forecast to lightly
brush across the forecast area from the north starting Fri night,
but at this time the only anticipated impact is another round of
cloud cover. Expect high temps to warm a few degrees each day,
remaining below normal for late Oct. 01
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
Models remain consistent in bringing dry shortwave trough the
region Saturday, flattening the ridge and allowing for a more
zonal pattern to set up. Ensemble clusters generally agree on flat
ridge continuing for Sunday, then conditions break down from
there as models struggle to handle depth of incoming Pacific
trough. There is some potential for a quick moving shortwave to
slide across the region Monday for light higher elevation
precipitation. However, much better chances arrive Tuesday through
the remainder of the week as center of low reaches PacNW coast,
then deepens into a large closed low over the southwest US.
Clusters agree on the deep trough over the western states by
Wednesday, but not on the depth. Ensemble spreads indicate warm
temperatures Tuesday, and a sharp cooldown by Thursday. Members
are split for Wednesday, with bulk of precipitation occurring
Wednesday and Thursday. DMH
AVIATION...
Fog and IFR stratus have generally dissipated across East Idaho by
early afternoon, though a few pockets may still be lingering in
lower elevation areas especially near waterways. Broad region of VFR
mid cloud has overspread the region. Some clearing potential
northwest to southeast during the evening as cloud shield shifts
away form the region. Enough moisture still present at the surface
to introduce some uncertainty on another round of fog/stratus. Of
the East Idaho terminals, KDIJ would be the most likely to see this
impact overnight, but not enough confidence to carry in the
terminals. Remainder of the region should remain VFR with light
winds overnight. DMH
FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions are expected through at least Sunday. A much
wetter pattern will set up next week with widespread snow and rain
expected. A warming trend is expected through Monday with above
normal temperatures expected by then with much cooler conditions
returning with the precipitation by Tuesday into Thursday. GK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
850 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Water-vapor imagery indicates appreciable dry air aloft spreading
southward across the forecast area, behind a deep upper low
tracking southeast across New Mexico. The drying profiles are
resulting in relatively rapid decreases in snowfall intensity and
coverage across the Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm
Warning areas.
Based on observational data, the Winter Weather Advisory for the
northern Sangre De Cristo Mountains has been cancelled, as well as
for western Las Animas County below 7500 Feet. Snow has mostly
diminished in these areas.
Meanwhile, the Winter Storm Warning for the southern Sangre De
Cristo Mountains, and the Winter Weather Advisory elsewhere in
Huerfano County, have had their end times moved earlier -- i.e.,
to Midnight MDT. This reflects the anticipated earlier cessation
of snowfall.
Forecast products have been updated to reflect the aforementioned
adjustments to winter-weather headlines. Cohen/Riser
UPDATE Issued at 615 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Observations suggest that the continued eastward progression of
the southern Rockies upper low corresponds to decreasing snowfall
over the southwest mountains -- where the Winter Weather Advisory
has expired. The forecast has been updated to account for these
trends. Cohen/Riser
UPDATE Issued at 332 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Quick update for cancellation of Winter Weather Advisory for the
central mts. Snow has quickly diminished there, and additional
significant snow accumulations are no longer anticipated. Moore
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Key Messages:
1) Snow continues over the higher terrain and southern portions of
the CWA late this afternoon and evening, but will quickly diminish
towards midnight.
Currently...A fast-moving upper low pressure system was located over
the northwestern corner of New Mexico as of 2 PM, bringing snow to
the higher terrain, Wet Mt Valley, and Palmer Divide as well as
brisk north to northeast winds. A rain/snow mix has developed for
some lower elevations sites, while El Paso County and the higher
spots are reporting all snow. Temps ranged from the 30s to mid 40s
for the high valleys and I-25 Corridor, while the far eastern plains
have seen less cloud cover and have warmed into the mid 50s. There
have been a few ltg flashes and ground strikes detected in the San
Luis Valley as of 230 PM, which indicates that convective potential
still exists.
Tonight...The upper low is forecast to continue pushing to the
southeast through the night, reaching southeastern NM and western TX
by sunrise tomorrow morning. Snow will diminish from north to south
through the evening, and though all highlights are set to expire by
12z, a majority of the activity will likely be done by 06z as
supported by NAM and GFS, though the HRRR keeps pcpn lingering over
the far SE corner until around 12z. However, up until that time,
additional snow amounts are expected over the highlighted higher
terrain, especially the southern areas, and previously mentioned
detected lightning means that heavier snowfall amounts will still be
possible in a short amount of time.
As the system departs and clearing skies develop, plan on another
very cold night across the region with lows in the teens for the
high valleys, and 20s to around 30F for the plains.
Tomorrow...Upper level ridging temporarily moves into the region for
Friday, providing for a dry and sunny day with temps climbing into
the 50s for the high valleys, and mid 50s to lower 60s for the
plains. Any localized spots that received more than 3 inches of snow
will obviously realize a much more subdued high temp. Moore
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Key Messages:
1) Increasing fire danger on the plains starting Tue, as strong
western U.S. storm takes shape.
Nice late autumn weekend expected across southern Colorado, as
flow remains rather weak with broad/diffuse/weak upper trough
lingering over the Rockies. Given weak mixing and lack of much in
the way of building heights over the area, expect max temps to
stay around seasonal averages both Saturday and Sunday, with
generally light, terrain driven winds. Upper ridge builds over
the area Monday bringing warmer temps, then deep trough moves
onshore over the West Coast Tue, which will produce increasing
swly low and mid level flow across most of CO. Pattern looks windy
enough to bring high fire danger back to the plains as early as
Tue afternoon, with a potential for a multi-day run of fire
weather highlights along and east of the mountains into Wed/Thu as
wrn trough/upper low is slow to move east. Still a good deal of
spread on eventual track of this system as it moves east, with
snow along the Continental Divide starting Wed, spreading into
most of the higher terrain by late week. At this point, system
looks like a fairly good snow producer for the mountains along the
Continental Divide, with lesser chances farther east. Not much
cold air in sight through mid-week, with above average temps at
most locations, though some cooling will take place over the
higher mountains by Thu as clouds and precip move in.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Vigorous upper low pressure system currently located over
northwestern NM will push to the southeast through the evening,
reaching southeastern NM and western TX by sunrise tomorrow morning.
This system has produced widespread lower clouds for the higher
terrain and I-25 Corridor today as well as a rain snow mix for some
of the lower locations and snow elsewhere. Plan on northerly wind
gusts to 30-35 kts this afternoon until around 02z, with rapid
diminishing winds and pcpn coverage as the system pulls away. Though
there may be some lingering -shrasn for the three main TAF sites of
KCOS, KPUB and KALS through 02z, VFR conditions are forecast to
prevail over the next 24 hrs.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ074-075.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COHEN/RISER/MOORE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE