Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/25/22


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 142 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022 A cold night is in store with freeze warnings in effect for portions of central and much of eastern NM. Dry weather returns Tuesday, continuing into Wednesday with a slow warming trend. Another storm system will bring increasing winds along with chances for precipitation to the northeast half or so Thursday and Thursday night. Dry weather returns Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages for late October. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 142 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022 The upper low is currently progressing east over the east central plains per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Showers continue across eastern NM and the latest HRRR and HREF show all precip ending across the eastern plains between 02-03Z. A Winter Weather Advisory continues for the northern Sangre De Cristos where a few snow showers persist, but additional amounts will likely be an inch or less. Strong northwest flow on the backside of the upper low is resulting in windy to very windy conditions across much of the area, where a Wind Advisory is in effect through 7PM EDT. Cold air advection will persist on the back side of the low as well and tonight`s low temperatures will be notably colder than last night`s and generally 5-15 degrees below normal. Will upgrade the Freeze Watch to both Freeze and Hard Freeze Warnings (zone dependent) and add a few zones that have yet to experience a freeze. Fair weather conditions with much less wind is forecast Tuesday with moderate westerly flow aloft across the region. High temperatures will be 5- 10 degrees below normal, but 10-15 degrees warmer than today`s. Warming will continue Tuesday night, but low temperatures will continue below normal at most locales. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 142 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022 West-southwest flow aloft ahead of another closed upper-level low over the Northern Rockies will result in a tranquil but cool day for all areas Wednesday. Southerly breezes are likely on the eastern plains Wednesday afternoon thanks to a lee side surface low in eastern CO. Weather prediction models are coming more in line with one another for Thursday, bringing a closed low through the northeast third of the state. Precipitation (snow above about 6,500 ft) at this time favors the Sangre de Critos Mountains Thursday and the eastern plains Thursday night. Dry conditions return to all areas underneath building high pressure Friday. The tranquil weather continues through the upcoming weekend. High temperatures remain below seasonal averages through the week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Upper low east central NM at 23Z to continue exiting into TX through 06Z with MVFR cigs/vsbys in showers and clouds diminishing. Nwly winds gusting to around 40kt to also slowly decrease from west to east over NM. Lighter wly winds and mostly clear conditions expected aft 25/18Z as winds aloft become wly and a weak lee trough develop. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 142 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for at least the next seven days. Freezing temperatures will follow an exiting upper low tonight with a drying/warming trend forecast going into mid week, although daytime temperatures will remain below normal. A quick-hitting upper low will impact the area Thursday with strong winds and a round of wetting precipitation, mainly in the northern mountains and nearby highlands. Warming is forecast over the weekend, bringing daytime temperatures back closer to normal by Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 25 57 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 16 53 22 56 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 21 53 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 17 59 22 59 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 23 55 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 19 59 22 61 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 22 57 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 30 58 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 25 57 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 22 63 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 29 64 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 17 49 23 50 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 30 54 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 27 57 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 18 52 23 53 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 14 47 18 48 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 8 50 11 50 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 15 54 21 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 24 58 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 25 60 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 28 55 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 24 57 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 32 58 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 32 60 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 28 62 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 30 61 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 27 61 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 28 62 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 27 61 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 28 62 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 27 61 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 30 58 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 29 61 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 32 63 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 28 53 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 27 56 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 26 56 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 23 58 26 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 26 55 31 59 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 28 55 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 30 56 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 34 59 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 31 56 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 22 57 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 17 62 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 19 63 25 65 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 22 60 29 61 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 29 62 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 25 59 29 61 / 10 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 28 64 34 68 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 31 63 36 66 / 20 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 28 65 33 67 / 30 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 32 64 37 69 / 50 0 0 0 Portales........................ 32 66 37 71 / 40 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 31 65 36 68 / 30 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 32 69 39 72 / 10 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 36 66 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 32 65 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-204-206>208- 219>224-226-238>241. Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Tuesday for NMZ217-222-223- 230>232-234-241. Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Tuesday for NMZ209-219-220-224- 233-235>238. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
957 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022 .SYNOPSIS... With a coastal low situated nearby, it will remain cloudy into the overnight hours with some showers, drizzle and fog. Mostly cloudy weather with a few more passing light showers are possible for Tuesday and Wednesday, although temperatures will be mild. Dry weather is expected for Thursday through the rest of the week with temperatures near or slightly above normal for late October. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... UPDATE...As of 950 PM EDT, showers were increasing in coverage across NW CT and the mid Hudson Valley, with some locally heavy downpours noted. This region seems to be associated with an area of enhanced low level convergence at the nose of a slightly enhanced low level jet, with H925-850 winds of 30-35 KT across NYC/LI. As the leading edge of this low level jetlet tracks northward, we expect the areal coverage of showers to increase from south to north for areas from Albany south and east through midnight, and into the Saratoga region between midnight and 2 AM. A few locally heavy downpours will be possible, especially across the Taconics, Berkshires south through the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Otherwise, widespread low clouds with patchy drizzle and fog developing outside of the showers. Temperatures will not fall very much from current levels given the abundance of low level moisture and cloud cover, with most areas hovering in the mid/upper 50s, except for some lower 50s across portions of the southern Adirondacks. PREVIOUS [349 PM EDT]...A weak and slow moving area of low pressure (about 1018 mb) is located just offshore Cape May, New Jersey. A warm front extending northeast from this low pressure area is providing a focus for the development of some showers. SPC Mesoanalysis is show a narrow area of high PWAT air moving northward to the east of the low pressure area and this is extending across Long Island and into southern and central New England, with values around 1.60 inches. As a result, the good moist flux, combined with some small amounts of elevated instability (up to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), is allowing for showers and embedded thunderstorms producing highly- efficient rainfall just east of our area. Some of these showers have been brushing into Litchfield and Berkshire Counties, although the bulk of the heavier rainfall remains to the east. MRMS and spotter reports show anywhere from 0.75 to 1.25 inches across far southern Litchfield County. A few additional showers, mainly with light rainfall, have been occurring to the west across the Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and Capital Region of eastern New York. Hi res-model guidance hasn`t had the best handle on this activity so far today. However, the expectation is for this low pressure area and associated surface front to weaken, as ridging over the western Atlantic starts building back westward towards the Northeast. Into this evening, some additional showers are possible (mainly for areas south and east of the Capital Region) and activity should decrease in coverage and intensity. Otherwise, the moist flow off the western Atlantic Ocean will continue to allow for widespread clouds across the area into this evening and all areas will likely stay mostly cloudy to overcast. Into tonight, model guidance suggests that what remains of the warm front will be lifting back westward. It will be weakening and will likely be more of a surface trough, but will be getting closer to the CWA for the late night hours. This could be the focus for a few more showers, although any showers look fairly light in intensity. 3km HRRR and NAMNest show some light showers are possible after midnight from about the Hudson Valley on eastward. In addition, the moist low-level flow will allow for some patches of low clouds, mist, drizzle and fog. With all the clouds around and elevated dewpoints, temps won`t fall much tonight. Lows will mainly be in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... On Tuesday, the surface low pressure will be drifting southward and weakening. It will eventually probably become difficult to distinguish, although the weak upper level reflection will be somewhere off the mid Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will be building over the area from the east. The low level flow will still be out of the east to southeast, so we will remain in a moist marine air mass. A few showers can`t be totally ruled out for southern and eastern areas, although large-scale forcing is weak, so it will probably be more drizzle or mist. Otherwise, it will stay fairly cloudy for most of the area. There could be some downsloping by afternoon to the west of the Taconics, as well as far western parts of the area allowing for some partial clearing for later in the day. Temps will be fairly mild, especially if any breaks that may occur, with temps in the mid 60s to possibly low 70s. Stagnant pattern will keep mild and muggy air in place into Tuesday night. It will stay fairly cloudy with more low clouds, fog and mist. A stray shower or two can`t be ruled out for Tuesday night as well, with another coastal low moving northward, but this one also seems to be more focused on eastern New England. Lows will be in the 50s. On Wednesday into Wednesday night, a more potent shortwave will be moving from the Ohio Valley towards the eastern Great Lakes and southern Canada. Most of the better dynamics will be staying west of the region and most of the moisture will be staying on the western side of the system. As a result, it should be dry for most of Wednesday, although some showers are possible for late in the day and into Wed night (mainly for northwestern areas). Some breaks of sun are possible ahead of this system, which should allow for another mild day with temps in the 60s to low 70s. While this system will be pushing the ridge eastward slightly, it will still keep west to southwest flow aloft in place over the area into Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Quiet weather is expected across much of the upcoming long term period. A cold front will continue its eastward progression across the region Thursday morning. There will be some lingering low-level moisture around, so some light rain showers cannot be ruled out in some spots (mainly favored westerly flow upslope areas). However, drier air will advect into the region throughout the day so improving conditions are expected by the afternoon with the return of some sunshine. Highs Thursday will range from the upper 40s to mid-50s in the higher elevations to the upper 50s to mid-60s in the valleys. A large area of high pressure will then build into the region on Friday and should stick around through next weekend. This will lead to a period of dry and tranquil weather. Highs will be mainly in the 50s with some upper 40s (higher terrain) and lower 60s (valleys) possible on some days. Nights should be on the chilly side with lows mainly in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Next chance for some rain looks to be during the early part of next week, though the timing of this feature remains uncertain. A cut-off upper-level low is expected to be positioned over the Lower Mississippi Valley next weekend and is expected to get picked up and brought northeastward toward our area at some point, which guidance differs on. Some guidance brings rain chances in as early as later Sunday with others holding off until at least Tuesday. For now, we will introduce slight chance to low chance pops starting Sunday night and Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00z/Wed...We will remain under the influence of a coastal low and inverted trough over the next 24 hours. This will result in mainly IFR/MVFR cigs throughout the upcoming TAF period. Isolated showers are also possible but there is low confidence on timing, so only included VCSH at this time. Showers may be light enough to not lead to many visibility restrictions. Some patchy mist/fog may also be possible tonight but there wasn`t enough confidence to include at this time as low stratus is more favored. Amendments will be done should conditions change. Wind will remain variable at 5 kt or less through the TAF period. Wind should become more east to southeasterly Tuesday afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Rathbun
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1030 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Key Messages: - Rain diminishing by Tuesday morning as cold front passes - Remaining dry and seasonable through the end of October Tonight into Tuesday night: Rain along a passing cold front tonight With an anomalously moist air mass across the region this evening into tonight (pushing the climatological max compared to MPX and DVN soundings) rain showers will lift northeasterly as the cold front shifts from west to east. By Tuesday morning, only a few rain showers will remain along the eastern counties of our area - these a few isolated showers may linger through the day on Tuesday as the frontal axis will stalls along southeastern Wisconsin. By Tuesday evening, another wave of energy looks to lift northeast along this remnant frontal axis, which may bring another shower or two across the far eastern service area - however, most of the activity should remain well to the east along Lake Michigan and into Illinois. There was another uptick in expected rainfall amounts tonight with amounts ranging from around 0.2 inches west of Rochester to near an inch of rain along the IA/WI/MN border and to the southeast. Temperatures will fall slightly below normal behind the cold front, with highs near 50 and lows in the mid 30s by Tuesday night. Wednesday into Thursday: Slightly below normal temperatures and dry High pressure and drier air moves into the area behind the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A wave will be exiting to the east along the Ohio River Valley as another begins to dig south from Idaho into the Rockies. Between these two features across the Midwest, quasi-zonal flow will be the rule with high temps in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Friday through the Weekend: Remaining dry with temps near normal As the wave across the Rocky Mountains digs into the Central Plains, models agree on the wave becoming cut off from the rest of the flow as weak ridging moves across the US/Canada border. This pattern will favor a persistence-based forecast where temperatures remain in the mid 50s to near 60 and lows in the mid 30s to near 40. Outside of a small chance of rain Friday morning as the trough settles into the Plains, little to no precipitation chances exist. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 CIGS: IFR/MVFR cigs making a steady push east late this evening and still looking to push east of the KLSE around 06z. RH fields and bufkit soundings then suggest the backedge of the clouds will clear btwn 09-12z. Some potential for afternoon cu development on Tue, with the RAP looking more like the NAM now (more enthusiastic with low level saturation). Bank of of MVFR/VFR hangs across much of MN per latest fog/stratus satellite imagery...moving slowly east. Will add some SCT for now, but see the potential for a few hour window of BKN mvfr toward 18z. WX/vsby: -shra continue to move east late this evening with latest CAMS continuing to shift the backedge east of KLSE around 06z. Some MVFR vsbys occasionally associated with the rain. WIND: cold front has shifted east of KRST/KLSE with westerly winds generally under 10 kts expected through the night. Look for a shift to more northwest for Tue afternoon. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAW AVIATION...Rieck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 00Z synoptic & RAP analysis indicates digging longwave trough with vertically stacked cold core over the N Rockies/Plains. 850mb & sfc low pressure is developing near the TX Panhandle & W OK. Broad upper divergence is spreading over the Plains, with nearly 100kt jet at both 300mb & 500mb & favorable jet dynamics for divergence & sfc cyclogenesis over the Plains-Ozarks. Model guidance has progged the sfc low ejecting NE across the Ozarks & Mid-MS Valley into Tuesday. GOES-E water vapor indicates strong forcing/ascent & storm activity over the E TX, with increased isentropic ascent gradually spreading E through the overnight hours. Strong gradient persists, nearly 5-7mb, this evening across the region & will remain that way prior to storm activity. Gradient winds will persist across the NW Delta & increase into Tues, especially right ahead of the line. With potential for storm activity & not to confuse messaging, left out any mention for now. However, an area from along & NW of a line from Richland Parish to Humphreys to Grenada County could see some frequent gusts near or in excess of 30mph. With increased low-level moisture advection, some shower activity may begin early across S MS around midnight & spread E-NE through the daybreak. HREF indicates the timing of the front & line of storms is generally on track & will move into NE LA just prior to daybreak, possibly a touch slower. However, messaging seems good & on track. No changes are needed to the HWO/graphics. Lows will again be well above normal due to the increased widespread cloudiness & shower & storm activity, with the line moving close to the MS River by daybreak. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Through Tomorrow: The main focus for impactful weather through tomorrow remains a developing low pressure system to our west, and the chance for severe thunderstorms as that system brings a cold front through our area tomorrow morning and afternoon. The mid-level low center is expected to track from central NM this afternoon toward northwest AR by the early morning hours. This track will keep the best mid-level height falls generally along and north of Interstate 20, favoring these areas for possible severe thunderstorms and tornadoes along the system`s cold front. Deep layer and low-level shear vectors will be supportive of rotating updrafts embedded in the squall line, and for possible tornadoes where low-level wind shear and modest instability can find a balance. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the line, while the threat for tornadoes may be more focused along any bowing segments that can develop along the line. With current expected timing for the front and expected overnight minimum in MLCAPE, the Slight Risk area for severe storms has been nudged a little farther north and east tomorrow. This keeps the Slight Risk in our Mississippi Counties, with a Marginal Risk for strong to isolated severe storms in northeast Louisiana and far southeast Arkansas. Timing estimates are for storms to be exiting far eastern Mississippi around 3 PM tomorrow afternoon. Gusty winds will still be possible for a few hours in the wake of the cold front`s passage, but to avoid conflicting messaging, have opted not to include a "Limited" threat for gradient winds in the HWO at this time. Wind gusts up to around 35 mph will be possible after the storms pass, especially in the ArkLaMiss Delta region. /NF/ Tomorrow night through Monday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a compact shortwave trough lifting out of the Lower Mississippi Valley and phasing with a northern stream wave over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front is progged to be located in the vicinity of the Mississippi/Alabama state line with drier and cooler air being driven into the area in the wake of the frontal passage. Heading into mid week, flow will become zonal with gradual height rises aloft while surface high pressure extending down the Mississippi River will dominate. Temperatures will start off cool with efficient radiational cooling Wednesday and Thursday mornings supporting widespread lows in the low to mid 40s. Temperatures will gradually rebound through the end of the week with afternoon highs in the low to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Heading into Friday and the weekend, an open shortwave trough diving through the Four Corners is forecast to close off into an upper low as it drops into the Southern Plains by Friday morning. While timing differences are apparent in global model guidance, there`s a strong signal that this upper low will swing through the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday into the weekend bringing rainfall back to the area. There won`t be sufficient time for appreciable moisture return and airmass recovery, especially with low-level easterly flow from a dry upstream source region across the southeast states/northern Gulf. Eventually, at least low to mid 50s dewpoints will return to the area, but the overall dearth of quality boundary layer moisture will preclude a threat for severe weather. A few hundred J/kg of elevated instability may support a few rumbles of thunder, however. Showers will likely linger into Sunday with eventual clearing by early next week. Persistent cloud cover and moisture will result in low diurnal temperature swings with mild morning lows in the mid 50s and high temperatures capped in the mid to upper 60s. /TW/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 752 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 S gradient winds will continue into the overnight hours & remain near 10-15mph at most sites, with the exception in the SE where they could be a little lighter. Reduced flight cats to MVFR cigs are expected prior to the storms with low stratus & some light SHRA possible in central to E TAF sites prior to 25/12Z. Increased coverage of SHRA & TSRA are expected from W to E tomorrow, generally between 25/12-16Z at GLH & GWO & between 25/16-20Z for central to E-SE TAF aerodrome sites. Any storms could lower flight cat reductions down to IFR vis &/or cigs & gusty winds in excess of 40mph. Expect gusty gradient winds outside of storms, with frequent gusts up to 30-35mph at times in the afternoon. As the cold front moves through, winds gradually turn from S to W into the aftn hours. Expect improved flight cats to VFR & clearing clouds between 25/16-20Z, earlier in NW sites & later in E-SE sites. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 75 46 70 / 30 80 0 0 Meridian 66 79 45 70 / 40 90 0 0 Vicksburg 68 75 45 72 / 30 70 0 0 Hattiesburg 68 82 47 73 / 40 70 0 0 Natchez 68 75 45 72 / 30 70 0 0 Greenville 67 72 45 70 / 40 80 0 0 Greenwood 69 74 44 70 / 20 90 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DC/TW/DC