Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/24/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1032 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching coastal low pressure is expected to bring rain
showers to portions of Vermont tonight into tomorrow morning. These
rain showers will diminish Monday evening, turning to more drizzle
and clouds lingering Monday night. Once this system exits the area,
additional rain chances linger into the middle of the week with a
continuation of above normal temperatures expected. Dry and warmer
weather is expected for the end of the week into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1032 PM EDT Sunday...Another round of updates made to the
forecast precipitation chances based on current radar trend and
latest HRRR/NAM3. 12/18Z model suite really struggled handling
the low level dry air in place which has basically evaporated
any moisture streaming north from a weak wave of low pressure
riding up the East Coast. In fact, there`s literally no
precipitation being detected in all of New England right now
with the exception of coastal Maine. Looking upstream, an area
of deeper moisture over east/central PA is progged by the HRRR
and NAM3 to work northward into the Adirondacks early Monday
morning from 08-12Z, but thereafter mid-level RH looks to dry
out again offering limited chances for additional rainfall. Have
cut back PoPs further from the previous forecast, along with
QPF amounts where perhaps up to a tenth of an inch is possible
in spots. Given less precipitation forecast, we could see warmer
temps for Monday than currently forecast, but will let the next
shift assess that after looking into the full 00Z model suite.
As the low begins to shift away from the region, northern New York
could get some clearing skies and more pleasant weather with highs
in the upper 60s. Elsewhere, temperatures will max out in the lower
to mid-60s at most on Monday. While this will be a slight cooldown
from Sunday with cloudy and rainy weather, it`ll still be 5-10
degrees above average. Showers will wind down Monday night as the
main moisture moves eastward, replaced by ridging and drier air in
the upper levels. A subsidence inversion could trap some of the
moisture in the lower levels, however, under south-southeast flow,
indicating some clouds and drizzle overnight under high pressure.
Lows may be even milder Monday night with such thick moisture
in the lower 50s with a couple of upper 40s here and there.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...As surface high pressure remains centered
over the northern Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday and low pressure over
the central Atlantic drifts towards the mid-Atlantic coast, a
continued easterly low level flow will keep air saturated near the
surface east of the Green Mountains. Depth of moisture based on
model relative humidity guidance generally thins with somewhat of
the one to three thousand feet and is variable through time and
space, but general idea for low clouds to hang tough in eastern
Vermont looks good. As such, these areas will have a small diurnal
range in temperature with mild night and relatively cool day, and
tend to have occasional drizzle or light showers, too. Then Tuesday
night, as the aforementioned Atlantic Ocean low pressure area lifts
closer to our area, greater chances of light showers along with
thickening clouds will be encouraged by a stronger easterly
component to the wind. As such, have continued to include some
patchy drizzle Tuesday morning, and added additional areas of fog
Tuesday night generally in the upslope southeasterly portions of our
region`s Adirondack and Green Mountains. Any measurable rain during
this period (likely 0.1" or less) will tend to be confined to those
same upslope areas. Showers that push northwestward will tend to
peter out farther west given the downsloping off the Greens, and
where moisture depth thins, expect skies to become partially clear.
As such, we will tap into the unseasonably warm air mass aloft and
temperatures yet again will be well above normal, especially where
dry adiabatic lapse rates are favored in downsloping locations.
Highs will easily reach the 60s and low 70s as anomalously warm air
aloft is in place (near 12 degrees Celsius at 850 millibars is near
the the 99th climatological percentile per NAEFS 00Z 23-October).
Latest MOS, especially European MOS which often does well in warm
air masses, shows much of our lower elevation sites peaking in the
low to mid 70s. While warm, record highs are not expected as the
daily high temperature records at our climate sites were set in 1963
and in the 78 to 80 range. However, our very mild and moist air mass
combined with an expected stratus layer/lack of widespread rain
Tuesday morning and night will support some potential record warm
minimum temperatures both on Tuesday and the following day.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...Main impact weather looks like during the
Wednesday - Thursday time frame, with showers and winds associated
with another ocean low pressure system and passage of a cold front
from the west. Still questions on how widespread rainfall will be,
as the weak surface low over the western Atlantic out ahead of the
front will shunt richer moisture to our east as it passes to our
northeast. However, between that ocean system impacting eastern
areas and the expected strength of the front, it looks like at least
some rain along with moderate winds will occur across the region.
Latest six hour probability of precipitation has increased over the
last 12 to 24 hours and supports high chance/low likely category.
Timing is mainly Wednesday evening and night with latest model
guidance, which has trended a little slower versus the NBM. Heavier
and longer duration rain is favored in southern Canada based on the
track of the surface low well to our north and relative lack of
forcing for ascent in our region, so a subtly greater chance of rain
is noted in the St. Lawrence Valley and near the International
Border. As far as the wind, a widespread northwesterly post-frontal
wind on Thursday is expected, peaking Thursday morning in the
northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley with gusts near 25 MPH
before gradually subsiding. Temperatures will sharply cool compared
to Tuesday and Wednesday, but still be above normal with highs
mainly in the 55 to 63 range.
Quiet conditions look to then build for most if not all of the
remainder of the period as a large high pressure area builds into
the region. A split flow upper level pattern should keep moisture
well to our south as weak shortwave energy passes through our region
at times, so while clouds can be expected occasionally,
precipitation chances are just about nil Thursday night through
Sunday. With the aforementioned weather pattern, air of Pacific
origin will be present so temperatures will be on the mild side,
near or a few degrees above normal with highs in the 50s and lows in
the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Deep southerly flow in the mid/upper
levels continues to push better moisture into our
central/eastern VT taf sites this evening. However, near the
sfc remains dry with VFR conditions prevailing. Eventually
expect cigs to trend toward MVFR at MPV by 09z and 12z-15z at
EFK with intervals of MVFR possible at RUT/BTV/SLK. Initial
band of very light showers will dissipate before reaching MPV,
but expecting another round of showers to develop after 06z and
impact mainly the CPV and points east taf sites thru 14z Monday.
A mix of MVFR/VFR prevails most of Monday, before potential
light drizzle and IFR cigs develops toward sunset on Monday
evening at MPV/EFK and SLK. Winds generally light and variable
with except southeast 4 to 8 knots at RUT and northeast at MSS.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Patchy DZ.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Patchy DZ.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Storm
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
531 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022
The short term forecast package continues to have multiple weather
scenarios at play through Tuesday. GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite
imagery shows a large swath of moisture positioned from the Great
Basin into the Central and Northern Rockies region. H5 RAP
analysis depicts a 545 dam ULL across northwest WY within a deep
longwave trough entrenched across the western half of the CONUS.
We currently have a strong surface cold front pushing south and
east from our cwa, with light rain showers spreading east of the
Laramie Range/I-25 corridor, and light snow showers across the
higher terrain, and additional areas west of the Laramie Range.
Gusty winds behind the cold FROPA have been present for a majority
of the cwa, especially the NE Panhandle where gusts in excess of
35-45mph have been observed for a large portion of the day.
Temperatures have been slow to decrease behind the cold front, but
there is still a large temperature gradient from our westernmost
and easternmost areas of the I-80 corridor as KSNY resides at 65
degrees F, and KRWL is presently at 34 degrees F as of 21Z.
SNOTEL observations have melted SWE values up to 0.6 inches for
the Sage Creek area of Carbon County thus far, so we are certainly
seeing snowfall accumulation.
As we continue to the remainder of today and tonight, snow showers
will linger across the area, with temperatures decreasing as well.
Have maintained the winter headlines as the impacts associated
with the cold temperatures and snow showers will remain hazardous
through Monday morning per the latest model guidance. The other
important point to mention is that as the lee-side cyclogenesis
continues to occur the next 12-24 hours across the Central Plains,
the baroclinic weather system will deepen another 3-5mb. This will
result in a strong winds at the surface due to a 60+ LLJ setting
up across the Central Plains overnight. Winds at approximately
750-850mb will intensify over SD and NE to approximately 50-60
knots. Omega fields do show subsidence fields being present, with
this being realized as wind gusts up to 45-55mph across our
northern forecast zones of Niobrara, Sioux, Box Butte, and Dawes
County at times.
Monday will see the potent weather system move out of the area,
but lingering snow showers across the higher terrain of the
northern Laramie Range, and Snowy/Sierra Madre Range persist due
to strong winds and orographic enhancement. Went with an upgrade
to the Arlington forecast zone for a High Wind Warning on Monday
into Tuesday morning. There is certainly the signal for another
mountain wave to take place as another shortwave approaches from
the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Subsidence will
spread from the wind prone corridors into zones further to the
east late Monday into Tuesday morning. Have expanded the High Wind
Watches as wind gusts to 60+ mph are possible for those regions
into Central Laramie County and eastern Platte County.
Temperatures will remain below normal through Tuesday, but
localized downslope effects from west to northwest winds off the
foothills will result in warmer temperatures by up to 5 degrees
for areas that have a High Wind Watch present. Expect that with
the approaching shortwave disturbance by Tuesday afternoon, our
western forecast zones will see the potential for light snow
showers with the potential for snowfall accumulation once again.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Active in the Long Term with precip and winds the forecast
challenges.
Departing upper shortwave across South Dakota Tuesday evening
should keep winds elevated somewhat for a time Tuesday evening.
Did go a little above NBM guidance on winds. Persisting showers in
the mountains overnight. Could see a more widespread area of
showers Wednesday as cold front waves a little north out of
northern Colorado. Surface front continues to move north through
the day Wednesday with small chances for showers spreading north.
Next shortwave moves into western Wyoming Wednesday night into
Thursday. Craig to Casper 850/700mb height gradients Thursday
afternoon into the evening hours as this next low approaches.
Could see high wind criteria during that time as gradients climb
above 60mtrs at 850mb. GFS 700mb winds not that impressive on
winds...so confidence on the low side that this will happen.
It will be cold mid week on through the end of the week as 700mb
temperatures of -7 to -10C over much of the CWA. Upper ridge
begins to move over the CWA Friday with 700mb temperatures climb
back to freezing Friday morning through the afternoon. Looks to be
windy Friday into Saturday as ridge axis shifts east into Nebraska
and South Dakota.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 528 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins, with occasional IFR until 02Z. Wind
gusts to 30 knots.
VFR at Laramie and Cheyenne, with occasional MVFR until 02Z. Wind
gusts to 37 knots.
Nebraska TAFS...VFR, with occasional MVFR until 03Z. Wind gusts to
42 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Fire weather concerns will remain low for the next several days as
below normal temperatures and multiple chances for precipitation are
favored for the FWZs across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for WYZ104-109>111-
113-114.
High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
for WYZ106-116.
High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
WYZ107-117-118.
High Wind Warning from 9 AM Monday to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for
WYZ110.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Monday for WYZ112.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...BW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1035 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Strong winds and elevated fire danger continue into this evening.
2. Conditional severe weather threat still on track for this evening.
3. Cooler but mainly dry weather returns through the work week.
A lot to unpack over the next 12-18 hours, as a strong storm system
lifts across the northern Plains. Early afternoon southerly winds
have been gusting 30-40+ mph, near but holding just shy of advisory
criteria so far. Stronger winds are evident to our southwest, with
several locations in western Kansas seeing gusts in excess of 60 mph
along with reduced visibility in blowing dust. The low to mid level
jet responsible for this pocket of stronger winds lifts northeast
toward eastern Nebraska and Iowa by this evening, compounded by
typical diurnal enhancement of a southerly low level jet, with
GFS/NAM/ECMWF all showing 850mb winds greater than 55kt sliding
across our far eastern counties this evening. Given timing of this
occurring after dark, think overall gusts will remain shy of high
wind warning criteria. However, HREF does show a potential for
surface gusts exceeding 50kt during the current advisory window
(24/01Z-07Z), even away from convection, so will need to monitor
upstream trends during the late afternoon/early evening.
As far as the late afternoon/early evening fire danger, dew points
in the lower-mid 50s have spread a bit farther west than previously
expected, in response to the storm track as a whole trending to the
west. That said, already seeing relative humidity levels down into
the mid 30s-mid 40s percent as of 2pm, and these will continue to
drop as temperatures rise through the mid-late afternoon. Given the
near advisory level winds and extremely dry vegetation, could see
rapid fire spread even without humidity levels reaching the 20-25%
threshold typically required for Red Flag Warning, so will continue
that headline into the early evening when humidity levels should
begin to recover after sunset.
Additional concern for this evening remains convective potential,
with some lingering uncertainty in exactly where/when storms may
develop. Evidence of mid-level instability working through Iowa,
with development of ACCAS over the past hour or two, with scattered
surface-based storms developing in the deeper moisture in eastern
Kansas. Given projected north-northeast storm movement, neither of
these are likely to be our area of focus for this evening, though.
Instead, will have to watch central/eastern Nebraska, as the
approaching wave interacts with a strengthening dry line over
central Nebraska. HRRR has been fairly consistent with isolated
development in this area prior to 6pm, with activity quickly moving
north-northeast across the Hwy 81/I-29 corridors this evening. Given
the already strong/potentially increasing winds aloft and inverted-V
soundings through the evening, along with any storms, or even just
showers, will have the potential to bring severe winds to the
surface. Hail will be a secondary threat with stronger storms with
CAPE approaching 1000J/kg, but focus for this evening is really on
the strong wind potential within the 6pm-11pm time frame.
Once storms slide northeast of the area late evening, focus will
shift to westerly winds wrapping into the area on the backside of
the system, along with sharply cooler air compared to the past
couple of days. May need to monitor our far west/northwest counties
for a possible wind advisory late tonight into Monday morning, as
850mb winds greater than 40kt wrap around the departing low into
central South Dakota. However, strongest winds look to remain just
west of our forecast area 09Z-15Z, and thus will hold off issuing
any headlines for these areas at this time. Nevertheless, Monday
will be a breezy and colder day, with westerly winds gusting 25-35
mph and temperatures only rebounding to the upper 40s and 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
With much of the focus today on the near-term concerns, did not
have much time to dissect fine details through the mid-long range.
That said, does not appear to be much in the way of impactful
weather through that period. Looking at a largely split flow
pattern, with a couple of stronger southern stream waves tracking
well south of the area early in the work week, and a second toward
the end of the week. Weaker northern stream troughs slide across
the northern Plains. Could possibly see enough moisture stream
north to support a chance of showers mid-late week, but otherwise
seeing dry and seasonably cool conditions from Monday onward.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
A strong Fall front is sliding eastward late this evening, and
will turn winds from the south to the west through the night.
Gusts with the westerly winds may approach 30 mph.
VFR skies are likely into Monday as the upper low rotates through
the northern US. There is some potential for lower ceilings
closer to MVFR levels into the Huron/Mitchell/Lake Andes area
during the day on Monday, but for now feel chances too low to
mention.
Mid and upper clouds will slide into the area from the south late
on Monday, turning skies overcast during the evening. West winds
through the day may gust between 25 and 35 mph.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Humidity levels of 20 to 40 percent observed across much of our
SD/NE/IA counties as of 3 pm this afternoon, and could fall a bit
farther before a slow recovery after sunset. Greater concern will
be strong southerly winds, gusting to 35 to 45 mph across the
area. These winds, combined with the low humidity levels and very
dry vegetation continue to support a Red Flag Warning for through
the Missouri/James River Valleys, and eastward toward Sioux Falls
and much of northwest Iowa into the early evening.
Winds switch around to the west through tonight as a cold front
pushes east. Wind gusts in the wake of the cold front should
average 25 to 35 mph late tonight through Monday. However, near
to below normal temperatures will persist through the week ahead,
which should ease humidity levels back into 30-45 percent range
for Monday.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Monday for SDZ040-055-056-061-062-
066-067-069>071.
MN...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Monday for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
090-097-098.
IA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Monday for IAZ001>003-012>014-
020>022-031-032.
NE...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Monday for NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...Dux
FIRE WEATHER...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
826 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 822 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed across
southern Lake MI into Van Buren County early this evening. There
was elevated instability in this region. Also...a low level jet
was pushing in behind this area of precipitation. Forecast
instability suggests that there should be a diminishing trend to
the thunderstorm activity as activity advances northeast through
the CWA. We will however update the forecast to reflect a thunder
risk to start the night given the radar trends. Later tonight...a
better surge of showers and possible storms should push in from
the southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Thunder is now expected to remain north and west of a Chicago to
Muskegon to Traverse City line per the latest SPC Swody1 outlook.
This leaves only our far northwest forecast area in the outlook. The
17Z RAP plan view MUCAPE diagnostic indicates a north-south plume of
instability over Lake Michigan drifting east and weakening
overnight. Maximum MUCAPE values decrease to 200 J per kg as this
plume drifts onshore by 07Z. So, some storms may hit the lakeshore
north of Muskegon with a glancing blow around this time, but that
should be the extent of it.
Measurable precipitation is expected to extend farther east and
south of the thunder outlook area. However, the 12Z HREF indicates
precipitation totals on the meager side, remaining below 0.05 even
along the Lake Michigan lakeshore.
-- Rain Tue morning into Wed --
As noted previously, we are looking at a cutoff low over the Baja
Peninsula to interact with a broader low over the southwestern U.S.
in a highly non-linear manner. This will most probably end up as a
compact upper low in the vicinity of the TX/OK border. This feature
then is expected to lift and break cyclonicly over the Ohio
Valley. There could be substantial TROWAL associated precipitation
as this evolves - but as one might imagine, there is low
predictability regarding exactly where and when this occurs. The
expected timing for the leading edge of the precipitation is
largely unchanged from the previous forecast ...primarily between
Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon. ECMWF ensemble shows
about a third of the members featuring accumulations greater than
one inch during this time.
Ending time for rain will depend largely on how the TROWAL becomes
oriented, but our best guess remains in the Wednesday
afternoon/evening timeframe.
-- Dry weather Wed night into early Fri --
Surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS during this
time with a mostly zonal polar jet around the Canadian border.
However, the subtropical jet will be diffuse to non-existent and we
may be dealing instead with a cutoff low over the southern Plains.
We have kept slight chance to chance PoPs this weekend, which is
more of a climatology-based prediction as one would expect when
overall predictability is low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
The showers over Lake MI were tracking northeast. There was some
instability present over the central part of the lake...and an
isolated thunderstorm did develop there recently. The instability
is shown to diminish over the next hour or two as these showers
try to move into the TAF sites. We will not feature thunder to
start the TAFs for this reason. However a better surge of
instability arrives from the southwest after midnight. This will
result in an increased potential for a few storms mainly around
KMKG. KGRR and KAZO will be on the easterly edge of this
instability axis...so for now...no VCTS. We will however need to
monitor the trends overnight closely.
We will feature LLWS for several of the TAF sites tonight. The
surface gusts have diminished and the low level winds have backed
to southeast. A low level jet was tracking in from the southwest.
Thus a risk for LLWS may develop...especially the closer to Lake
MI you get.
Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will lift north and
shift west of the TAF sites by noon Monday. Thus we will feature
dry and VFR conditions then. The wind gusts will increase once
again as the temperature warm up in the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
No changes to the headlines. We have recently seen lakeshore winds
veering more to the southeast. As noted previously this will limit
wave growth, but speeds are appreciable with frequent gusts in the
25-30 knot range expected.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
DISCUSSION...TJT
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...TJT
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1151 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low pressure will continue to track north along the
Eastern Seaboard tonight, with rain likely near the Mass border
by around sunset before gradually spreading north and east
tonight. Unsettled, warm, and at times foggy conditions prevail
through midweek. A cold front likely clears the area on
Thursday, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the end of
the week and the start of next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Update...RH continues to creep up in the mid levels but remains
a significant barrier to widespread shower activity across the
forecast area. Most of those are peeling off to the east and
drying up...but low level WAA continues and there is some
indication on radar that drizzle may be developing and moving
towards the coast. So while I did decrease PoP...I left a fairly
large area of chance PoP going to cover that. Otherwise there is
a going to be a break in showers after the batch over the
Midcoast exits...as we wait for convection developing south of
Long Island to move north into the area.
Previous discussion...Visible satellite imagery this afternoon
shows a cirrus shield continuing to advance northward across the
area as a stratus deck begins to nudge into southern NH.
Northeast radar mosaic imagery shows returns as far north as
Boston, MA but latest ASOS reports indicate that the leading
edge of this precipitation is not reaching the ground. This is
due to a deep dry layer aloft, which will gradually be overcome
from south to north through early this evening. Current
temperatures range from near 70 degrees across northern areas
where more in the way of sunshine has occurred today to the
upper 50s and lower 60s further to the south.
A surface warm front and associated weak waves of low pressure
will continue to track northward along the Eastern Seaboard
tonight, which will result in a band of stratiform rain to
overspread the CWA from south to north. There continues to be
some difference amongst model guidance but current indications
are for at least showers to develop near the Massachusetts state
line by around sunset before these advance northward to the
Portland area by around 10pm or so. These will then become more
of a stratiform rain overnight. Patchy fog is also likely to
develop, especially late tonight given the plethora of low level
moisture. Light and variable winds early this evening will
increase some later tonight as a stronger push of a LLJ crosses
overhead. The latest HRRR indicates that the greatest chance
for a few gusts up to 20-25mph or so will be across the Mid-
Coast of ME. In terms of rainfall amounts, given the differences
in model guidance the forecast is mostly WPC QPF, which brings
in between 0.50-0.75" along the coast to less than 0.20" near
the Canadian Border by Monday morning. Overnight lows will be
limited to the 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Stratiform rain will lead to mostly showery weather on Monday as
we sit within a weak warm sector. The latest few CAM runs
indicate the potential for some convective showers to develop
during the early to mid-afternoon hours across interior
locations and given that there will be around 35-45 kts of
effective bulk shear and a few hundred joules of MUCAPE present
went ahead and kept the slight chance thunder into the forecast.
While not expecting any strong storms given poor mid-level
lapse rates and the presence of an inversion from a CAD, any
convective showers will have the potential of producing locally
heavy rainfall as PWATs will be near the daily maximums.
Generally expecting an additional 0.50-0.75" of rain during the
day but locally higher amounts will be possible within any
convection or training. Across the far north, rain will remain
very light with rainfall amounts of generally less than 0.50".
It will otherwise be another mild and muggy day with highs
primarily into the lower 60s.
Scattered showers will continue through Monday night but they
will likely become more scattered in nature as the greatest
forcing begins to exit the region. It will otherwise be a mild
and humid night with overnight low temperatures only falling
into the lower 50s across most locations. Fog is also likely to
develop, which could become locally dense in some locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep 500 MB trough to our west and 500 MB ridging to our SE
continue to battle it out out through mid meek before the weak
remnants of sub-tropical low near Bermuda move around the
Atlantic ridge and into New England on Wednesday, which keeps us
mostly in onshore flow Tuesday and Wednesday, with lots of
clouds, some fog, and the best chance for rain on Wednesday.
Despite all the clouds, very warm air aloft should allow temps
to reach into the low to mid 60s in many areas. Once this system
moves out on Thursday, it will cool off for late in the week
with dry wx , as large sfc ridge moves in from the W. It won;t
stay cold for too long, as split flow in the jet over the
Pacific carves out a ridge over the wrn CONUS, and provide
warmer SW flow in the east.
Expecting a break from showers on Tuesday, although a few
cannot be completely ruled, and some DZ is possible as well,
especially in the morning. There’s a chance for some sun across
inland parts of NH on Tuesday, but clouds will linger along the
coast through the day and in ME. Highs will generally be in the
mid-upper 60s. Fog develops Tuesday night with lows in the mid
to upper 50s. That remnant low moves in on Wed, but there is a
fair amount of certainty as to where it ends up and what kind of
impact it may have, so have kept chance of showers in the
forecast Wed into Wed evening. Probably there will be more in
the way of clouds on Wednesday, but, like Tuesday if there is
any sun, it’ll be in the west and highs once again reach the
mid-upper 60s.
The low lifts N of the CWA on Thursday and front move though
the CWA with clearing skies. Highs range from around 60 in the N
to the upper 60s on the coast as NW flow does its downslope
thing. IT turns cooler on Friday with highs closer to normal in
the 50s, but should see a slight warm up each, with mainly dry
conditions through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions early this evening will deteriorate
from south to north tonight as a surface warm front lifts
northward bringing widespread -RA to all TAF sites. SHRA will
begin across southern terminals including KMHT by around 00Z
before reaching more northern sites such as KAUG and KHIE
between 04-06Z Monday. Ceilings will also lower with BR
developing, resulting in IFR/LIFR restrictions overnight.
Continued restrictions are then expected on Monday through at
least Monday evening as SHRA continues along with BR/FG.
Long Term...Expecting Tue morning to start IFR or lower at most
terminals in fog and stratus, but should see improvement at
KHIE/KLEB/KMHT/KCON to MVFR and probably VFR during the
afternoon. The ME terminals may see a period of MVFR Tue
afternoon, but may be stuck at IFR. IFR or lower should return
to all terminals Tue night. Some improvement expected Wed
morning, but will probably not do better than MVFR at most
terminals. VFR returns late Wed night through the end of the
week.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas will build to 3-5 ft this evening across
southern waters and therefore an SCA remains in effect for late
tonight. Elsewhere seas will largely remain below 5 ft but NE
winds will increase overnight with gusts up to around 20 kts.
Winds decrease on Monday through Monday night but showers will
continue.
Long Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA levels through the end of
the week. Areas of dense fog will be possible Tuesday through
Wednesday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Legro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Key Details:
* A Red Flag Warning is in effect for central and south-central
Kansas until 8 PM CDT this evening
* A high wind warning is in effect for Russell and Barton Counties.
A wind advisory is in effect for the rest of the CWA.
* A dust advisory is in effect for portions of central Kansas
* A conditional severe risk will be possible today while beneficial
rainfall is expected for southeast Kansas.
An upper level trough currently resides over the U.S Four Corners
region with a potent shortwave that ejected into the Northern and
Central Plains today. This shortwave led to lee cyclogenesis and an
anomalously low surface low pressure. The shortwave trough will
continue to move northeast evening and as it does a potent low level
jet will develop over central and south-central Kansas with 60-70kt
across this area. The CAMs and especially HRRR and RAP show lapse
rates from 950-700mb 7 c/km or higher as well as good momentum
transfer. This will help mix those winds to the surface and some
areas may approach high wind warning criteria tonight.
Only subtle precipitation trends have been noted, however with such
a sharp cutoff expected a 15 to 20 miles shift could make a
significant difference. There has been a trend to slow the front a
couple of hours, which would allow heavier precip to move further
west. These trends will need to be monitored into the now-cast
period. Confidence is far higher that those east of the Kansas
Turnpike and especially east of the Flint Hills will see beneficial
rainfall, perhaps in the two to three inch range.
We should see weather clear out across the area by midday Tuesday.
Fall like weather will continue Tuesday and Wednesday with mostly
clear skies and quiet conditions.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Little change in thought from the previous long range forecast. It
does appear that we will keep an active pattern with another trough
expected to move through Thursday into Friday and perhaps another
one Saturday into Sunday. Although there isn`t a strong signal for
rain in the extended, there should be a few chances coming up.&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Very strong and gusty south winds will continue through the
evening. This will support areas of blowing dirt/dust, most
widespread over central and western portions of Kansas.
Additionally, a few thunderstorms may impact portions of central
and north-central Kansas late this afternoon-evening. A strong
low-level jet will support low-level wind shear within 2000 ft
AGL for many locations tonight. Later tonight, expect a cold front
to switch winds to northwesterly, but not as strong as today.
Additionally, widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will
spread northeast Monday, most prevalent generally along/southeast
of the KS Turnpike.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Blowing dust and very windy conditions are expected for the first
6 hours of the TAF. Some MVFR vsbys are possible at KRSL, KGBD
and KSLN until about 05Z tonight. After 06Z, winds will begin to
subside as the front approaches. KHUT and KICT may have a few
hours of LLWS tonight but this will not last long as the main low
level jet is expected to depart the region around 08Z to 10Z this
morning giving way to calmer winds. By 12Z, showers will become an
increasing possibility with KHUT, KICT and KCNU the most likely
terminals to see any significant rain during the day tomorrow.
KCNU is likely to see a decent amount of rain after 12Z tomorrow.
MVFR ceilings and visibility due to rain induced fog/mist should
be expected after 15Z tomorrow.
Metzger
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Extreme to catastrophic fire danger is expected to continue this
afternoon. Strong gusty winds up to 60 mph have occurred and are
ongoing. This will lead to fire concerns through the evening. A Red
Flag Warning is still in effect through this evening for the Flint
Hills and points west.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 52 63 43 65 / 40 70 20 10
Hutchinson 50 59 39 65 / 40 60 20 0
Newton 51 61 40 63 / 40 70 20 10
ElDorado 52 64 42 62 / 50 80 30 10
Winfield-KWLD 54 66 43 65 / 50 80 40 10
Russell 49 59 35 66 / 20 30 10 0
Great Bend 49 58 35 65 / 20 30 10 0
Salina 52 60 37 65 / 30 50 10 0
McPherson 50 58 38 64 / 30 60 10 0
Coffeyville 61 71 45 62 / 30 90 60 30
Chanute 59 71 45 60 / 30 90 50 30
Iola 58 71 44 60 / 30 90 50 20
Parsons-KPPF 60 71 45 61 / 30 90 50 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047-048-050.
High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ053-069>072-093>096-
098>100.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRW
LONG TERM...CRW
AVIATION...Metzger
FIRE WEATHER...CRW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1043 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
00Z synoptic & RAP analysis this evening indicates slow moving
shortwave trough at 500mb still remaining over the Mid-Atlantic
states. Mid level ridge at 500mb & 700mb is situated across the N
Gulf Coast & more situated further SW over the W Gulf further
aloft at 300mb. Flow aloft has increased over the Intermountain W
& Four Corners in response to a vertically stacked cold core over
the N Rockies. In response, a broad area of low pressure is
developing across the Great Plains. With broad upper divergence
spreading from S Plains across the region, increased mid-high
level cloudiness will persist overnight. At the sfc, 00Z sfc
analysis indicates strong gradient between developing sfc low in
the central to N Plains & the +1020mb sfc high over the Mid-
Atlantic states. Persistent SW return flow will keep the best
moisture off to the W-NW. Increased winds look to remain in the NW
Delta, while lighter to the E-SE. Lows will again be in the low
60s along & NW of a Natchez-Greenwood line, while closer to
normal in the E into upper 40s to near 50 degrees in the Hwy 45
corridor. Similar to last night, bumped up lows a touch in NW &
slightly cooler in the E. Some fog potential can`t be ruled out
again in the Pine Belt & some recent HREF runs indicate some low
stratus could build into central MS by daybreak. Added some fog to
the fcst but with winds, could be a combination of some patchy fog
&/or stratus near daybreak. Updates are out. /DC/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Through Monday:
Today is unfolding similarly to yesterday. A low level CU field
has developed mainly west of I-55, while warm southerly winds are
gusty at times due to a tight pressure gradient between a
developing system over the High Plains and an East Coast ridge.
While the cu field will diminish this evening, areas of low
stratus clouds may spread into the area overnight as moisture
advection increases ahead of the next storm system. Though no PoP
was included in the forecast, it`s within the realm of possibility
a few sprinkles may accompany those low clouds tomorrow morning
across south MS. The daytime hours Monday will be similarly warm
and breezy, though greater cloud cover is anticipated. Wind gusts
to around 30 mph will be possible at times, not quite enough to
advertise as a hazard. /DL/
Tuesday through Sunday:
There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms early Tuesday
morning into Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves through the
region. A low pressure system quickly pivoting from the Southern
High Plains across AR and northern MS will drive mid-level height
falls and increasing southerly flow in the lower levels into the
daytime. Dew points along and just ahead of the approaching cold
front should surge into the mid- to upper-60s, while forcing helps
mix the lower-levels and allow for potential convection to tap into
around 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE early in the morning. Deep-layer wind
shear on the order of around 50-60 kts is more than enough to
support some supercellular organization to storms that develop, but
instability may be too weak to keep individual updrafts sustained
for long. Localized damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado will
be possible at least initially. As the squall line progresses
eastward, model guidance indicates daytime heating and continued
moistening of the low levels should boost instability with around
700-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the line when it reaches central to
eastern MS in the early afternoon. This would provide a better
balance for sustained updrafts and a better chance for some severe
thunderstorms to develop. The threat for severe storms should
quickly end from west to east through the afternoon in the wake of
the front. Strong winds from the west will continue behind the front
however, as a deeply mixed air mass with steep low-level lapse rates
helps tight gradient winds mix to the surface. For now, have left
this gradient wind threat out of the HWO text or graphics so as to
not confuse messaging about the initial severe weather threat.
A briefly cooler and drier few days are expected under zonal flow
aloft through midweek, but then the next shortwave trough looks to
arrive late in the week and develop a low centered closer to the
Gulf Coast as it slides through. While confidence in the details of
southern stream low pressure systems this far out is hard to come by
in the cool season, the consensus of the deterministic models
indicates we may stay more on the cooler northern side of the
surface low during the late week/weekend time frame. This suggests
cloudier and cooler weather with some rain and drizzle, with less of
a chance for thunderstorms. We`ll continue to monitor trends in the
guidance and update the forecast as this next system approaches. /NF/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
VFR flight cats will prevail at a majority of sites through the
next 24 hours. Southerly gradient winds will lighten this evening
& increase again during the day Mon, mainly after 24/16-17Z.
Increased gradient winds will be the main concern across central-N
TAF sites (i.e. JAN, HKS, GTR, GWO & GLH). Sustained winds up to
20mph, with gusts up to 25mph, are expected, especially in NW
sites at GLH & GWO. There are continued trends towards low flight
cat restrictions at PIB & HBG, due to some patchy fog & low cigs,
down to to IFR-LIFR. This is possible between 24/11-13Z & lifting
by just after daybreak Mon. Can`t rule out some of the low cigs
sneaking into JAN & HKS before daybreak, but low confidence limits
introduction during the 00Z TAF cycle. /DC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 57 82 66 77 / 0 0 40 80
Meridian 50 79 64 77 / 0 10 20 80
Vicksburg 60 85 68 75 / 0 0 50 70
Hattiesburg 55 82 67 80 / 10 10 30 70
Natchez 60 83 68 76 / 0 0 50 70
Greenville 62 85 67 73 / 0 0 60 70
Greenwood 59 84 67 74 / 0 0 40 80
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DC/NF/DC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
913 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
...New UPDATE...
...INLAND LATE NIGHT FOG, AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Shallow moisture advection from the the east increased low level
moisture this evening across the forecast area in the wake of passing
trough axis sliding down the SE Atlantic coast and the inland
progressing east coast sea breeze. Shower potential with the
trough was well south of the the local coastal waters with dry
conditions expected tonight.
The main weather concern tonight will be areas of fog inland,
some locally dense through sunrise Monday morning especially
across parts of inland SE GA and between the I-75 corridor and St.
Johns River basin of NE FL. Current NAM, SREF, RAP, NBM and HRRR
continued to favor SE GA and areas near and north of the I-10
corridor for best fog potential, but extended the fog southward
down across NE FL to the St. Johns River basin and inland toward
I-75 near Gainesville where moisture advected inland and boundary
layer winds will be favorable for fog as well.
Updated the forecast to include areas of fog with patchy dense
for these areas. High cirrus clouds will increase from the WNW
tonight, but at this time believe they will be progressive enough
where radiational cooling conditions will still be favorable
under a low level ridge center, light boundary layer winds and
favorable dew pt depressions. It is possible that a dense fog
advisory may be needed for some portion of the forecast area early
tomorrow morning.
Temperatures tonight will trend warmer but still generally below
climo values from near 50 well inland to near 60 at the coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
High pressure ridge will be over the region through Tonight. A weak
trough to the east of the area this afternoon, will move to the
south of the area this evening. The combination of low
level moisture, and light winds will result in fog formation
overnight. Patchy to areal coverage is expected, with the potential
for this fog to become dense.
Lows Tonight will range from the lower 50s inland, to the lower 60s
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
High pressure ridge will remain over the area Monday into Monday
night, with this ridge moving off to the east northeast Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Due to subsidence under high, dry weather will
persist Monday into Tuesday, with mainly clear skies. Low level
moisture, and light winds will provide the potential for fog again
Monday night and Tuesday night.
A cold front will move east southeast across the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Moisture is somewhat lacking with this boundary,
but enough to warrant chances for showers and a few thunderstorms as
boundary passes through.
High pressure will build to the north Thursday, with a dry day under
mainly clear skies expected.
Temperatures will trend near to a little above normal this period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
High pressure ridge will extend south into area Thursday night
through Friday. Dry weather will persist into Friday.
A low pressure system will move across the Gulf coast and affect the
region next weekend. The combination of moisture from the northeast
wrapping around the high, and moisture ahead of the Gulf low, will
result in chances for weekend showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures this period will trend a little above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
VFR conditions this evening under decreasing ENE winds 5-10 kts.
An increase in low level moisture from the east today under calm
winds inland will create better fog and low stratus potential
after 06z tonight, especially near JAX, VQQ and GNV. Model
guidance remained in good agreement with MVFR to IFR conditions
developing between 06-09z at these terminals, with restrictions
lowering through 12z to LIFR/VLIFR. Highest confidence of
LIFR/VLIFR was indicated with prevailing conditions by 08z for
VQQ and GNV, with IFR for JAX by 09z and TEMPO LIFR between
09-12z.
There will be increasing high clouds from the WNW through the
night, but at this time believe coverage will be thin enough to
not significantly inhibit radiational cooling and limit fog
potential.
A lower sun angle and weak northerly flow will be slow to erode
fog and low stratus inland given stable low level conditions. Indicated
improvement to VFR by 13-14z at this time. Low stratus will lift into
a low cumulus deck and scatter as diurnal heating mixes down some
drier air above the surface, but SCT cumulus 3-4 kft agl bases
are expected into Monday afternoon under ENE flow 5-10 kts, near
10-12 kts at SGJ int the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
High pressure ridge will be over the region through Tuesday. A cold
front will move east southeast across the area during the day
Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will build to the
north Thursday into Friday. A low pressure system will move east
across the Gulf coast and affect region next weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 50 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 58 77 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 54 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 60 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 54 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 57 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT Monday for FLZ133-138.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
857 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
00Z upper air analysis places an upper level low off Baja
California and another upper level low off the Carolina Coast, and
an upper level trough axis over the Western United States.
Southwest flow aloft is present across the Plains and Mississippi
Valley this evening. GOES-16 satellite trends indicate some high
clouds moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley producing partly
cloudy skies. As of 8 PM CDT, temperatures across the forecast
area range from the mid 60s to lower 70s with the warmest
temperatures along and west of the Mississippi River. Rain free
conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the
night with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Forecast remains
in good shape overall and no updates anticipated at this time.
CJC
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
A nearly carbon copy of yesterday`s weather across the Mid-South
right now. Temperatures are in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees
areawide under mostly sunny skies. Winds have been a bit stronger
today with gusts as high as 35 mph along the Delta Region. The
latest surface analysis places a 1023 mb high over northern
Georgia with a double-barreled 985 mb low over northeast Colorado
and central South Dakota respectively. Winds have been
exceptionally strong between these two systems, as several high
wind warnings are in effect across the Plains today.
Aloft, three distinct troughs are analyzed across North America.
The upper low from Tropical Storm Roslyn over Central Mexico, the
low off the coast of Baja California, and lastly the trough over
Wyoming. These three systems are expected to phase to the lee of
the Rockies by tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of the system, deep
southwesterly flow will setup across much of the Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley. The trough is expected to take on a
negative tilt as it pushes into the region on Tuesday. Several
models, notably the GFS, HRRR and ECMWF, have sped the system up
quite a bit. Confidence in severe weather is lower than expected
with system, as several developing parts need to come together
quickly. As it stands, synoptic wind fields are very impressive
with 0-1 km SRH values in excess of 350 and a mid level 80 knot
speed max. A surface low is expected to develop near sunrise on
Tuesday morning over central Arkansas and occlude over the Mid-
South during the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will
leave a rather skinny and short-lived warm sector over portions
of Mississippi. With such strong forcing aloft, a QLCS is the
likely storm mode with the potential for embedded circulations
within the line. Instability in the warm sector could approach
750 J/kg of MLCAPE, but will probably remain below that figure.
Nonetheless, damaging wind gusts and a few weak tornadoes are
possible if all of the ingredients come together in that small
window Tuesday morning into early afternoon. The line of storms
is forecast to be east of the Tennessee River by late afternoon or
early evening Tuesday.
Behind the front, cooler air will settle in for Wednesday and
Thursday. Expect highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s and 50s.
Temperatures will moderate by late week as upper level flow shifts
southwesterly ahead of an approaching trough. Some timing and
location differences still exist in the long term forecast,
however, another chance of rain looks likely by late next
weekend.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Winds
will still remain elevated through the TAF period around 10 KTS
overnight then increasing and gusting during the day on Monday.
Expect strong south-southwesterly low level winds to continue
through the Monday evening MEM arrival push - likely accompanied
by -SHRA near the western TRACON.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...MJH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1030 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak coastal low and associated frontal system will affect
the waters through Tuesday. The weak low will dissipate over the
Mid Atlantic region on Tuesday while another weak low
approaches from the southeast for midweek. This low will pass
just east of New England Wednesday night while a cold front
moves through the area. Strengthening high pressure over the
Plains and upper Great Lakes will then build just north of the
area and remain in control through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Frontogenetically forced rainfall from earlier today has ended
with drier air moving in aloft along with continued surface
ridging. Spotty light precip cannot be ruled out over the next
few hours.
Models seem to be in better agreement that this respite will be
short-lived though. With continued deep SE flow (strengthened S
LLJ) and shearing upper low drifting up the coast, it appears
deeper moisture and elevated instability advect into the region
late tonight into Monday (particularly E portions of the
region). This seems to manifest in a warm conveyor belt of
scattered heavy downpours (embedded tstms possible) lifting up
the coast. Uncertainty on where the main focus of the WCB axis
orients, but the synoptic lift and continued moisture feed
should help reinvigorate shower activity overnight and
continuing through Monday morning. The highest probability for
training locally heavy downpours with isolated tstms appears to
be across LI/CT. HRRR indicating potential for rainfall rates to
approach 1"/hr in the heaviest activity late tonight into
Monday, with SPC HREF indicating a low prob of 3"/3hr where
training occurs. Overall, this equates to a general threat of
minor urban and poor drainage flooding in vicinity of training
cells late tonight into Monday afternoon, with a low and
localized threat for flash flooding.
Synoptic forcing slowly weakens Mon afternoon as elongated and
sheared trough axis weakens just to the southwest, combined with a
weakened thermal gradient as warm front/coastal front slides
westward. This will allow for a weakening of WCB and a general
transition to spotty light rain and drizzle.
Otherwise, unseasonably mild and humid tonight and seasonably mild
on Monday in the sub-tropical flow, despite clouds, ne flow and
rain.
NE winds as high as 15-20 mph continue for the coast through
this evening. This gradient weakens overnight as high pressure
continue to retreat north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sheared trough axis weakens continues to weaken Monday night, while
at the surface the weak coastal/warm front will continue to weaken
and push west of the Hudson river. Moist low-level E flow,
strengthening low level flow, and strong inversion aloft points
to widespread stratus and drizzle and patchy fog, with better
chance of showers across western portions of the region in
vicinity of coastal front. Otherwise, another unseasonably mild
night well into the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong upper level ridging out over the Atlantic will begin to
weaken to start this time frame, caught in a squeeze play between a
weak non-tropical low moving NW through it toward New England,
troughing extending from off the SE coast up into the Mid Atlantic
region, and a potent southern stream cutoff low advancing from the S
Plains and Mississippi valley and kicking the aforementioned systems
off to the east Wed night.
A weak sfc low associated with the nearby trough to the west should
dissipate on Tue over the Mid Atlantic region, but associated rain
bands should hang on into Wed especially from the NYC metro area
west as mid and upper level forcing continues and then moves across.
Most of the precip with the offshore low should remain tied to low
level WAA to its east as it moves close to the 40N/70W benchmark Wed
AM, impacting eastern New England. The srn stream kicker cutoff low
meanwhile should lift NE through the OH valley and ern Great Lakes
Wed into Wed night, with an associated cold front passing through
late Wed night and ushering in dry/cooler wx to finish the week and
last through the weekend. Rejected NBM idea of 20-30 PoP for
Saturday/Sunday with deterministic model guidance insisting on the
high remaining dominant during this time frame.
Mild temps to start the time frame will return closer to normal for
Fri/Sat after the cold frontal passage, then moderate somewhat on
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak coastal low and associated frontal system will impact
the terminals through Monday.
Conditions will continue tonight to MVFR and then IFR after
midnight. Some spotty light rain is possible initially with
periods of rain redeveloping overnight into early Monday
morning. Some local LIFR is possible early Monday morning,
especially on Long Island. IFR with some rain continues into
Monday morning. Coverage of rain looks lower Monday afternoon,
but IFR is likely to continue with low potential of brief
improvement to MVFR middle to late afternoon.
NE winds 10-15 kt to start should settle to around 10 kt or
less overnight. NNE-NE winds 5 to 10 kt are likely to continue
on Monday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of IFR tonight may be off by 1-2 hours. There is also a
low chance of LIFR conditions early Monday morning.
Conditions should remain IFR through Monday, but there is a
low chance for brief improvement to MVFR in the afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday Night...IFR, possibly LIFR. Chance of light rain.
.Tuesday-Wednesday...MVFR to IFR conditions. Chance of a shower.
.Thursday-Friday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA winds expected on the ocean thru late tonight, with
accompanying sees of 6 to 9 ft. Latest guidance still
indicating a period of 25-kt gusts for eastern LIS, eastern
bays, and southern bays. Elsewhere, an ocnl gust to 25kt cannot
be ruled out thru this eve.
Winds lighten late tonight into Mon, with easterly ocean wind waves
gradually subsiding Monday. Winds and seas are expected to remain
blw sca lvls through mid week.
As strengthening high pressure builds to the north, persistent NE
flow on its srn flank may lead to minimal SCA conds on the ocean
waters especially E of Fire Island Inlet Fri into Fri night, with
winds gusts up to 235 kt and seas up to 5 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall of 1/5 to 2 inches likely across E LI and SE CT
through Monday, tapering to 1/4 to 1/2 west of the Hudson
River. This could be locally higher depending on orientation of
warm conveyor belt rain bands. Rainfall rates approaching 1"/hr
possible in the heaviest activity late tonight into Monday,
with SPC HREF indicating a low prob of 3"/3hr where training
occurs.
Overall, this equates to a threat of minor urban and poor
drainage flooding in vicinity of training cells late tonight
into Monday afternoon, with a low and localized threat for flash
flooding.
Otherwise, no widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through
the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/NV
NEAR TERM...BG/DS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/NV
HYDROLOGY...BG/NV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
138 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. Early afternoon satellite
imagery was showing a broad upper low over the Wyoming Rockies
lifting slowly NE with time. Numerical models, particularly the
Hires models, continue to support some sort of quasi-Snake
Convergent precipitation activity late this afternoon that drifts
into the SE highlands. Looking at radar, some very weak returns are
evident near Dubois drifting south and surface observations are
generally supportive of some sort of convergence with the NNW flow
dumping out of the CNTRL mountain-valleys and decent west flow over
the Magic Valley. Thus I don`t believe it would be prudent to pull
the plug on the precipitation potential until we get through the
evening hours. After that, with the low exiting NE of the region we
should see clearing skies and plummeting temperatures under a north
flow aloft. The next upstream disturbance, currently rotating into
SW Alaska, is expected to dig SE into WRN Canadian tonight before
shearing SE through the NRN Rockies and SE Idaho Monday night and
Tuesday morning. This looks to be a fairly progressive short-wave
which exits the region late Tuesday afternoon. Snow accumulations
should be confined mainly to the Sawtooth region and the SE
Highlands generally running at or below advisory levels. Thus no
highlights are anticipated with this feature at this time. Daytime
temperatures should remain a bit below normal through the period
with breezy winds Monday and Tuesday. Huston
.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Sunday. An upper level
trough will deepen as it moves in from the northwest Tuesday night.
This will bring some moderately impactful winter weather to the
region starting Wednesday. NBM 4.1 guidance shows a 50 to 60 percent
chance of 4+ inches in the Sawtooth Range including Galena Summit,
and around a 30% chance for 6+ inches in the same area. The same
upper trough will bring strong winds across the Snake Plain
Wednesday afternoon with peak gusts 35 to 40 mph. Deterministic
models seem to be in fair agreement with the track and intensity of
the upper trough. Ensemble clusters show some variance late in the
week as the upper trough splits somewhere over the Colorado Front
Range with also some variance on the strength of the upstream ridge.
The weather in the latter half of the week and into Saturday looks
dry, mainly because of said ridge. However, the ridge looks to
quickly shift to the east Friday night with Saturday and Sunday
trending wetter. Hinsberger
&&
.AVIATION...Mid-level trough has passed to the east, but we`re still
dealing with some instability that will likely result in afternoon
showers across the Snake Plain. VFR conditions are generally favored
today, but snowshowers could briefly drop cig/vis to IFR. High-res
models favor showers developing at PIH, IDA, and DIJ this afternoon.
It appears less likely at BYI and SUN, but 3km NAM and HRRR show
showers in the vicinity. Ridging will work its way in overnight, and
there is potential for fog developing as skies clear. NBM and HREF
guidance continue to favor VFR conditions overnight, and
probabilities of visibility 3SM or less is highest in the Arco
Desert/INL area and maybe a 15 to 25 percent chance of IFR VIS at
IDA. Hinsberger
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...The bulk of precipitation is now east of our region,
with wrap-around moisture bringing isolated to scattered
precipitation through tonight. Hi-res models show showers
continuing throughout the day, with coverage increasing around 4 PM
across all of eastern Idaho, and all moisture outside of the state
by around midnight. Snow levels are supportive of snow at valley
floors. Additional snowfall today will generally remain south and
east of the Snake River Plain in Zones 411 and 413 as the low
continues eastward. Snow accumulations will likely be an inch or
less across the valleys and around 1 to 5 inches above 7,000 feet
through midnight. Skies will clear west to east overnight tonight
into tomorrow morning before another round of clouds moves in Monday
evening ahead of the next approaching system. Winds will be breezy
again today, with sustained winds up to around 20 mph and 30 mph
gusts. Higher magnitudes will potentially be observed across Zones
425 and 427, as well as across the ridgelines in Zone 476. Although
winds could reach critical thresholds at times, minimum humidities
will remain above critical for the next week. The next system to
monitor will move in late Monday, which will be the first in a
series of troughs to come out of the Pacific Northwest through late
week. These will bring continued precipitation chances this week.
Temperatures will remain around normal to below normal through the
end of the week. Cropp/Keyes
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
805 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Surface obs show the dry line has retreated to the west slightly
over the last hour or so. Meanwhile the agitated CU field over
central KS has fallen apart for the most part, probably due to
weakened convergence along the dryline. The RAP13 prog shows a
corridor of steep mid level lapse rates remaining over parts of
north central KS through the evening, but inhibition to a surface
parcel remains significant (100 to 200 J/kg of negative CAPE) ahead
of the front. Models keep the nose of the low level jet north of
the forecast area and the latest HRRR only has some isolated
convection while other CAMs struggle to produce much if any
reflectivity. So given the lapse rates and abundant shear, will
have to keep an eye out for an isolated thunderstorm. But it looks
like the overall chances for thunderstorms may be lessening.
The pressure gradient looks to remain capable of wind advisory
level winds and will keep the advisory going. Have let the red
flag warning expire. While south winds will continue gusting
between 40 and 50 mph into the early morning hours, slowly cooling
temperatures and increasing moisture are expected to let relative
humidity levels slowly recover.
Have also bumped min temps up across the eastern portions of the
forecast area. Models hold off bring the front all the way
through the forecast area until late morning or around noon. So
temps for eastern counties may remain in the lower to mid 60s
through mid morning. Increasing clouds and rain are forecast to
prevent much of a diurnal trend for Monday as well. If the rain
develops as the models show, temps could be stuck in the 50s all
day Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
-Strong wind gusts through the evening of 40 to 50 MPH. Wind
advisory in effect through 1 AM Monday, Red flag warning across
north central KS until 7 PM
-Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and into the
early morning hours of Monday. A few could produce wind gusts of 60
MPH.
-Cooler with a chances for showers on Monday, with the best chances
across the eastern half of the area.
An intense upper level trough was lifting northeast across the high
Plains. A deep surface and 850m low was located across SD and the
tight pressure sfc pressure gradient was causing strong wind
gusts of 38 to 48 MPH across the CWA this afternoon. This evening
the LLJ at 2K to 3K ft will increase to near 70KTS. Thus the
strong southerly wind gusts will continue into the evening as the
boundary layer remains well mixed. A dryline was located across
central KS, just west of the CWA this afternoon. The warm
advection showers and few elevated storms will move northeast out
of the CWA after 3 PM.
A few CAMs were showing storms forming along the
dryline after 23Z. However the EML may provide a strong enough cap
to prevent isolated storms from forming late this afternoon early
evening. However, if storms do form they will tap into the
stronger winds 2000 feet above the surface and may provide
downdraft winds to 60 to 70 MPH. Even though MLCAPE is only 300 to
500 J/KG but any weak updraft could tap into the stronger winds
2000 feet above the surface. Otherwise, the better chance for
storms may come as the surface cold front pushes southeast across
the CWA later Tonight. The potential is there with the strong LLJ
of 60 to 70 KTS for some downdraft outflows to produce winds gusts
of 60 MPH. But instability will remain low despite good low-level
vertical windshear.
frontogenesis northwest of the surface front, along with DCVA
ahead of the H5 trough axis will provide periods of showers on
Monday into Monday night across the CWA. The better rain chance
will be across the eastern counties where 1/2 to 1 inch of
rainfall may occur by late Monday. I can`t rule out a few rumbles
of thunder.
There will be another chance for rain late this week as an upper
level trough digs east-southeast across the southern Plains late
Thursday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
The pressure gradient looks to remain strong through the evening.
So while the magnitude of the winds may decrease slightly, I
expect strong south winds to remain gusty well into the night.
Precip chances ahead of the front appear to be isolated. More
widespread precip should develop along the boundary and move
northeast by mid morning as better dynamics kick out from the
southern Rockies. There looks to be some MVFR CIGS and possibly
some IFR visibilities with a mainly stratiform precip. Confidence
in visibilities less than 3 miles is marginal depending on where
the boundary is. So will keep the forecast MVFR for now. An
isolated TS will be possible as well. Chance for TS Monday may be
to small to include in the forecast at this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
A Red Flag Warning will be in effect through 8 PM for the western
half of the CWA today. RH values in that area are forecast to be
between 25 and 35 percent at their lowest this afternoon. While
this is higher than our usual RFW criteria for RH, the very dry
fuels and intense winds will set the stage for rapid fire spread
if fires develop. Southwest winds will be sustained between 25 and
35 mph and could gusts to as high as 55 mph today. Thus, a RFW
will continue in coordination with the Kansas Forest Service.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>010-
020>022-034>037.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Teefey
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
323 PM MST Sun Oct 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds, cooler temps, and increasing clouds can be expected
today. The best chance of showers, storms, and high elevation
mountain snow will be this evening into tomorrow morning as a cold
front moves through, bringing much cooler temperatures to start
the new work week. Sub freezing temperatures are possible for most
of Cochise County Tuesday morning, especially Sulphur Springs
Valley.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Cold front draping down from the north, still just north and west
of our CWA. We`re still in the southwesterly upslope / warm sector
with light showers in the mountains, but not much reaching the
surface in the valleys yet. The HRRR is still advertising some
convective bands ahead of the front this evening with isolated
embedded thunder, mainly from eastern Pima and Santa Cruz counties
eastward into New Mexico. FROPA from northwest and north pushing
through SE AZ in the morning hours, with dewpoints crashing behind
the front and a dry cooler northerly flow through the day Tuesday.
Still looking like a quick-hitting low QPF event with 0 to .25 in
valleys and .1 to .5 in mountains. Snow levels will be above
mountain peaks until the deepest moisture is already moving out.
With initial precip falling as rain, only 1 to 2 inches of snow
possible in the mountains.
Clear skies, light winds, and a drier colder airmass should come
together for the first widespread freeze in colder valley
locations east and south of Tucson Tuesday morning. ECMWF min
temp extreme forecast index highlighting SE AZ. A few isolated
locations may briefly drop into hard freeze range (<=28F).
A shortwave ridge will bring a rapid warmup Tuesday and Wednesday
as heights and thicknesses bounce back toward seasonal averages,
with daytime highs following suit.
Another system diving down from the north is expected to brush by
just northeast and east of SE AZ, with a few showers in the
mountains and several degrees of cooling Thursday.
Another ridge in a continuing high energy pattern will push
temperatures back above climo by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z.
West to southwest sfc winds 10-25 kts through much of the day
with gusts up to around 25-35 kts. Strongest winds will be closer
to the New Mexico border. Winds diminishing to 12 kts or less most
locations aft 26/04Z. Scattered to numerous -SHRA and mountain
top -SHSN increase aft 24/01Z with isolated -TSRA possible as
well. Precipitation chances rapidly diminishing after 24/12Z.
SCT-BKN 6K-10K FT MSL, becoming BKN-OVC with brief periods of
lower ceilings with MVFR conditions during - SHRA activity, with
MTN obscuration as well. Clearing from the west behind FROPA
Monday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A storm system will impact southeast Arizona this evening through
tomorrow morning, resulting in a chance of showers and higher
elevation snow, a few storms, and cooler temperatures. Best chance
of precipitation will be this evening into early Monday morning
with dry conditions returning for most locales by late Monday
morning. Gusty west/southwest 20-foot winds around 20 mph this
afternoon with less wind Monday through Wednesday favoring the
west/northwest.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight Monday night to 8 AM MST Tuesday
for AZZ503-507>509.
&&
$$
Meyer
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