Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/24/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1032 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching coastal low pressure is expected to bring rain showers to portions of Vermont tonight into tomorrow morning. These rain showers will diminish Monday evening, turning to more drizzle and clouds lingering Monday night. Once this system exits the area, additional rain chances linger into the middle of the week with a continuation of above normal temperatures expected. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the end of the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1032 PM EDT Sunday...Another round of updates made to the forecast precipitation chances based on current radar trend and latest HRRR/NAM3. 12/18Z model suite really struggled handling the low level dry air in place which has basically evaporated any moisture streaming north from a weak wave of low pressure riding up the East Coast. In fact, there`s literally no precipitation being detected in all of New England right now with the exception of coastal Maine. Looking upstream, an area of deeper moisture over east/central PA is progged by the HRRR and NAM3 to work northward into the Adirondacks early Monday morning from 08-12Z, but thereafter mid-level RH looks to dry out again offering limited chances for additional rainfall. Have cut back PoPs further from the previous forecast, along with QPF amounts where perhaps up to a tenth of an inch is possible in spots. Given less precipitation forecast, we could see warmer temps for Monday than currently forecast, but will let the next shift assess that after looking into the full 00Z model suite. As the low begins to shift away from the region, northern New York could get some clearing skies and more pleasant weather with highs in the upper 60s. Elsewhere, temperatures will max out in the lower to mid-60s at most on Monday. While this will be a slight cooldown from Sunday with cloudy and rainy weather, it`ll still be 5-10 degrees above average. Showers will wind down Monday night as the main moisture moves eastward, replaced by ridging and drier air in the upper levels. A subsidence inversion could trap some of the moisture in the lower levels, however, under south-southeast flow, indicating some clouds and drizzle overnight under high pressure. Lows may be even milder Monday night with such thick moisture in the lower 50s with a couple of upper 40s here and there. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...As surface high pressure remains centered over the northern Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday and low pressure over the central Atlantic drifts towards the mid-Atlantic coast, a continued easterly low level flow will keep air saturated near the surface east of the Green Mountains. Depth of moisture based on model relative humidity guidance generally thins with somewhat of the one to three thousand feet and is variable through time and space, but general idea for low clouds to hang tough in eastern Vermont looks good. As such, these areas will have a small diurnal range in temperature with mild night and relatively cool day, and tend to have occasional drizzle or light showers, too. Then Tuesday night, as the aforementioned Atlantic Ocean low pressure area lifts closer to our area, greater chances of light showers along with thickening clouds will be encouraged by a stronger easterly component to the wind. As such, have continued to include some patchy drizzle Tuesday morning, and added additional areas of fog Tuesday night generally in the upslope southeasterly portions of our region`s Adirondack and Green Mountains. Any measurable rain during this period (likely 0.1" or less) will tend to be confined to those same upslope areas. Showers that push northwestward will tend to peter out farther west given the downsloping off the Greens, and where moisture depth thins, expect skies to become partially clear. As such, we will tap into the unseasonably warm air mass aloft and temperatures yet again will be well above normal, especially where dry adiabatic lapse rates are favored in downsloping locations. Highs will easily reach the 60s and low 70s as anomalously warm air aloft is in place (near 12 degrees Celsius at 850 millibars is near the the 99th climatological percentile per NAEFS 00Z 23-October). Latest MOS, especially European MOS which often does well in warm air masses, shows much of our lower elevation sites peaking in the low to mid 70s. While warm, record highs are not expected as the daily high temperature records at our climate sites were set in 1963 and in the 78 to 80 range. However, our very mild and moist air mass combined with an expected stratus layer/lack of widespread rain Tuesday morning and night will support some potential record warm minimum temperatures both on Tuesday and the following day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...Main impact weather looks like during the Wednesday - Thursday time frame, with showers and winds associated with another ocean low pressure system and passage of a cold front from the west. Still questions on how widespread rainfall will be, as the weak surface low over the western Atlantic out ahead of the front will shunt richer moisture to our east as it passes to our northeast. However, between that ocean system impacting eastern areas and the expected strength of the front, it looks like at least some rain along with moderate winds will occur across the region. Latest six hour probability of precipitation has increased over the last 12 to 24 hours and supports high chance/low likely category. Timing is mainly Wednesday evening and night with latest model guidance, which has trended a little slower versus the NBM. Heavier and longer duration rain is favored in southern Canada based on the track of the surface low well to our north and relative lack of forcing for ascent in our region, so a subtly greater chance of rain is noted in the St. Lawrence Valley and near the International Border. As far as the wind, a widespread northwesterly post-frontal wind on Thursday is expected, peaking Thursday morning in the northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley with gusts near 25 MPH before gradually subsiding. Temperatures will sharply cool compared to Tuesday and Wednesday, but still be above normal with highs mainly in the 55 to 63 range. Quiet conditions look to then build for most if not all of the remainder of the period as a large high pressure area builds into the region. A split flow upper level pattern should keep moisture well to our south as weak shortwave energy passes through our region at times, so while clouds can be expected occasionally, precipitation chances are just about nil Thursday night through Sunday. With the aforementioned weather pattern, air of Pacific origin will be present so temperatures will be on the mild side, near or a few degrees above normal with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...Deep southerly flow in the mid/upper levels continues to push better moisture into our central/eastern VT taf sites this evening. However, near the sfc remains dry with VFR conditions prevailing. Eventually expect cigs to trend toward MVFR at MPV by 09z and 12z-15z at EFK with intervals of MVFR possible at RUT/BTV/SLK. Initial band of very light showers will dissipate before reaching MPV, but expecting another round of showers to develop after 06z and impact mainly the CPV and points east taf sites thru 14z Monday. A mix of MVFR/VFR prevails most of Monday, before potential light drizzle and IFR cigs develops toward sunset on Monday evening at MPV/EFK and SLK. Winds generally light and variable with except southeast 4 to 8 knots at RUT and northeast at MSS. Outlook... Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy DZ. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy DZ. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Storm NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Storm SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Kutikoff AVIATION...Taber
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
531 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 The short term forecast package continues to have multiple weather scenarios at play through Tuesday. GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite imagery shows a large swath of moisture positioned from the Great Basin into the Central and Northern Rockies region. H5 RAP analysis depicts a 545 dam ULL across northwest WY within a deep longwave trough entrenched across the western half of the CONUS. We currently have a strong surface cold front pushing south and east from our cwa, with light rain showers spreading east of the Laramie Range/I-25 corridor, and light snow showers across the higher terrain, and additional areas west of the Laramie Range. Gusty winds behind the cold FROPA have been present for a majority of the cwa, especially the NE Panhandle where gusts in excess of 35-45mph have been observed for a large portion of the day. Temperatures have been slow to decrease behind the cold front, but there is still a large temperature gradient from our westernmost and easternmost areas of the I-80 corridor as KSNY resides at 65 degrees F, and KRWL is presently at 34 degrees F as of 21Z. SNOTEL observations have melted SWE values up to 0.6 inches for the Sage Creek area of Carbon County thus far, so we are certainly seeing snowfall accumulation. As we continue to the remainder of today and tonight, snow showers will linger across the area, with temperatures decreasing as well. Have maintained the winter headlines as the impacts associated with the cold temperatures and snow showers will remain hazardous through Monday morning per the latest model guidance. The other important point to mention is that as the lee-side cyclogenesis continues to occur the next 12-24 hours across the Central Plains, the baroclinic weather system will deepen another 3-5mb. This will result in a strong winds at the surface due to a 60+ LLJ setting up across the Central Plains overnight. Winds at approximately 750-850mb will intensify over SD and NE to approximately 50-60 knots. Omega fields do show subsidence fields being present, with this being realized as wind gusts up to 45-55mph across our northern forecast zones of Niobrara, Sioux, Box Butte, and Dawes County at times. Monday will see the potent weather system move out of the area, but lingering snow showers across the higher terrain of the northern Laramie Range, and Snowy/Sierra Madre Range persist due to strong winds and orographic enhancement. Went with an upgrade to the Arlington forecast zone for a High Wind Warning on Monday into Tuesday morning. There is certainly the signal for another mountain wave to take place as another shortwave approaches from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Subsidence will spread from the wind prone corridors into zones further to the east late Monday into Tuesday morning. Have expanded the High Wind Watches as wind gusts to 60+ mph are possible for those regions into Central Laramie County and eastern Platte County. Temperatures will remain below normal through Tuesday, but localized downslope effects from west to northwest winds off the foothills will result in warmer temperatures by up to 5 degrees for areas that have a High Wind Watch present. Expect that with the approaching shortwave disturbance by Tuesday afternoon, our western forecast zones will see the potential for light snow showers with the potential for snowfall accumulation once again. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Active in the Long Term with precip and winds the forecast challenges. Departing upper shortwave across South Dakota Tuesday evening should keep winds elevated somewhat for a time Tuesday evening. Did go a little above NBM guidance on winds. Persisting showers in the mountains overnight. Could see a more widespread area of showers Wednesday as cold front waves a little north out of northern Colorado. Surface front continues to move north through the day Wednesday with small chances for showers spreading north. Next shortwave moves into western Wyoming Wednesday night into Thursday. Craig to Casper 850/700mb height gradients Thursday afternoon into the evening hours as this next low approaches. Could see high wind criteria during that time as gradients climb above 60mtrs at 850mb. GFS 700mb winds not that impressive on confidence on the low side that this will happen. It will be cold mid week on through the end of the week as 700mb temperatures of -7 to -10C over much of the CWA. Upper ridge begins to move over the CWA Friday with 700mb temperatures climb back to freezing Friday morning through the afternoon. Looks to be windy Friday into Saturday as ridge axis shifts east into Nebraska and South Dakota. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 528 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins, with occasional IFR until 02Z. Wind gusts to 30 knots. VFR at Laramie and Cheyenne, with occasional MVFR until 02Z. Wind gusts to 37 knots. Nebraska TAFS...VFR, with occasional MVFR until 03Z. Wind gusts to 42 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Fire weather concerns will remain low for the next several days as below normal temperatures and multiple chances for precipitation are favored for the FWZs across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for WYZ104-109>111- 113-114. High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for WYZ106-116. High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for WYZ107-117-118. High Wind Warning from 9 AM Monday to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ110. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Monday for WYZ112. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...BW
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1035 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong winds and elevated fire danger continue into this evening. 2. Conditional severe weather threat still on track for this evening. 3. Cooler but mainly dry weather returns through the work week. A lot to unpack over the next 12-18 hours, as a strong storm system lifts across the northern Plains. Early afternoon southerly winds have been gusting 30-40+ mph, near but holding just shy of advisory criteria so far. Stronger winds are evident to our southwest, with several locations in western Kansas seeing gusts in excess of 60 mph along with reduced visibility in blowing dust. The low to mid level jet responsible for this pocket of stronger winds lifts northeast toward eastern Nebraska and Iowa by this evening, compounded by typical diurnal enhancement of a southerly low level jet, with GFS/NAM/ECMWF all showing 850mb winds greater than 55kt sliding across our far eastern counties this evening. Given timing of this occurring after dark, think overall gusts will remain shy of high wind warning criteria. However, HREF does show a potential for surface gusts exceeding 50kt during the current advisory window (24/01Z-07Z), even away from convection, so will need to monitor upstream trends during the late afternoon/early evening. As far as the late afternoon/early evening fire danger, dew points in the lower-mid 50s have spread a bit farther west than previously expected, in response to the storm track as a whole trending to the west. That said, already seeing relative humidity levels down into the mid 30s-mid 40s percent as of 2pm, and these will continue to drop as temperatures rise through the mid-late afternoon. Given the near advisory level winds and extremely dry vegetation, could see rapid fire spread even without humidity levels reaching the 20-25% threshold typically required for Red Flag Warning, so will continue that headline into the early evening when humidity levels should begin to recover after sunset. Additional concern for this evening remains convective potential, with some lingering uncertainty in exactly where/when storms may develop. Evidence of mid-level instability working through Iowa, with development of ACCAS over the past hour or two, with scattered surface-based storms developing in the deeper moisture in eastern Kansas. Given projected north-northeast storm movement, neither of these are likely to be our area of focus for this evening, though. Instead, will have to watch central/eastern Nebraska, as the approaching wave interacts with a strengthening dry line over central Nebraska. HRRR has been fairly consistent with isolated development in this area prior to 6pm, with activity quickly moving north-northeast across the Hwy 81/I-29 corridors this evening. Given the already strong/potentially increasing winds aloft and inverted-V soundings through the evening, along with any storms, or even just showers, will have the potential to bring severe winds to the surface. Hail will be a secondary threat with stronger storms with CAPE approaching 1000J/kg, but focus for this evening is really on the strong wind potential within the 6pm-11pm time frame. Once storms slide northeast of the area late evening, focus will shift to westerly winds wrapping into the area on the backside of the system, along with sharply cooler air compared to the past couple of days. May need to monitor our far west/northwest counties for a possible wind advisory late tonight into Monday morning, as 850mb winds greater than 40kt wrap around the departing low into central South Dakota. However, strongest winds look to remain just west of our forecast area 09Z-15Z, and thus will hold off issuing any headlines for these areas at this time. Nevertheless, Monday will be a breezy and colder day, with westerly winds gusting 25-35 mph and temperatures only rebounding to the upper 40s and 50s. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 With much of the focus today on the near-term concerns, did not have much time to dissect fine details through the mid-long range. That said, does not appear to be much in the way of impactful weather through that period. Looking at a largely split flow pattern, with a couple of stronger southern stream waves tracking well south of the area early in the work week, and a second toward the end of the week. Weaker northern stream troughs slide across the northern Plains. Could possibly see enough moisture stream north to support a chance of showers mid-late week, but otherwise seeing dry and seasonably cool conditions from Monday onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 A strong Fall front is sliding eastward late this evening, and will turn winds from the south to the west through the night. Gusts with the westerly winds may approach 30 mph. VFR skies are likely into Monday as the upper low rotates through the northern US. There is some potential for lower ceilings closer to MVFR levels into the Huron/Mitchell/Lake Andes area during the day on Monday, but for now feel chances too low to mention. Mid and upper clouds will slide into the area from the south late on Monday, turning skies overcast during the evening. West winds through the day may gust between 25 and 35 mph. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Humidity levels of 20 to 40 percent observed across much of our SD/NE/IA counties as of 3 pm this afternoon, and could fall a bit farther before a slow recovery after sunset. Greater concern will be strong southerly winds, gusting to 35 to 45 mph across the area. These winds, combined with the low humidity levels and very dry vegetation continue to support a Red Flag Warning for through the Missouri/James River Valleys, and eastward toward Sioux Falls and much of northwest Iowa into the early evening. Winds switch around to the west through tonight as a cold front pushes east. Wind gusts in the wake of the cold front should average 25 to 35 mph late tonight through Monday. However, near to below normal temperatures will persist through the week ahead, which should ease humidity levels back into 30-45 percent range for Monday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Monday for SDZ040-055-056-061-062- 066-067-069>071. MN...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Monday for MNZ071-072-080-081-089- 090-097-098. IA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Monday for IAZ001>003-012>014- 020>022-031-032. NE...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Monday for NEZ013-014. && $$ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...Dux FIRE WEATHER...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
826 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 822 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed across southern Lake MI into Van Buren County early this evening. There was elevated instability in this region. Also...a low level jet was pushing in behind this area of precipitation. Forecast instability suggests that there should be a diminishing trend to the thunderstorm activity as activity advances northeast through the CWA. We will however update the forecast to reflect a thunder risk to start the night given the radar trends. Later tonight...a better surge of showers and possible storms should push in from the southwest. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Thunder is now expected to remain north and west of a Chicago to Muskegon to Traverse City line per the latest SPC Swody1 outlook. This leaves only our far northwest forecast area in the outlook. The 17Z RAP plan view MUCAPE diagnostic indicates a north-south plume of instability over Lake Michigan drifting east and weakening overnight. Maximum MUCAPE values decrease to 200 J per kg as this plume drifts onshore by 07Z. So, some storms may hit the lakeshore north of Muskegon with a glancing blow around this time, but that should be the extent of it. Measurable precipitation is expected to extend farther east and south of the thunder outlook area. However, the 12Z HREF indicates precipitation totals on the meager side, remaining below 0.05 even along the Lake Michigan lakeshore. -- Rain Tue morning into Wed -- As noted previously, we are looking at a cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula to interact with a broader low over the southwestern U.S. in a highly non-linear manner. This will most probably end up as a compact upper low in the vicinity of the TX/OK border. This feature then is expected to lift and break cyclonicly over the Ohio Valley. There could be substantial TROWAL associated precipitation as this evolves - but as one might imagine, there is low predictability regarding exactly where and when this occurs. The expected timing for the leading edge of the precipitation is largely unchanged from the previous forecast ...primarily between Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon. ECMWF ensemble shows about a third of the members featuring accumulations greater than one inch during this time. Ending time for rain will depend largely on how the TROWAL becomes oriented, but our best guess remains in the Wednesday afternoon/evening timeframe. -- Dry weather Wed night into early Fri -- Surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS during this time with a mostly zonal polar jet around the Canadian border. However, the subtropical jet will be diffuse to non-existent and we may be dealing instead with a cutoff low over the southern Plains. We have kept slight chance to chance PoPs this weekend, which is more of a climatology-based prediction as one would expect when overall predictability is low. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 747 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 The showers over Lake MI were tracking northeast. There was some instability present over the central part of the lake...and an isolated thunderstorm did develop there recently. The instability is shown to diminish over the next hour or two as these showers try to move into the TAF sites. We will not feature thunder to start the TAFs for this reason. However a better surge of instability arrives from the southwest after midnight. This will result in an increased potential for a few storms mainly around KMKG. KGRR and KAZO will be on the easterly edge of this instability for VCTS. We will however need to monitor the trends overnight closely. We will feature LLWS for several of the TAF sites tonight. The surface gusts have diminished and the low level winds have backed to southeast. A low level jet was tracking in from the southwest. Thus a risk for LLWS may develop...especially the closer to Lake MI you get. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will lift north and shift west of the TAF sites by noon Monday. Thus we will feature dry and VFR conditions then. The wind gusts will increase once again as the temperature warm up in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 No changes to the headlines. We have recently seen lakeshore winds veering more to the southeast. As noted previously this will limit wave growth, but speeds are appreciable with frequent gusts in the 25-30 knot range expected. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...MJS DISCUSSION...TJT AVIATION...MJS MARINE...TJT
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1151 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Coastal low pressure will continue to track north along the Eastern Seaboard tonight, with rain likely near the Mass border by around sunset before gradually spreading north and east tonight. Unsettled, warm, and at times foggy conditions prevail through midweek. A cold front likely clears the area on Thursday, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the end of the week and the start of next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Update...RH continues to creep up in the mid levels but remains a significant barrier to widespread shower activity across the forecast area. Most of those are peeling off to the east and drying up...but low level WAA continues and there is some indication on radar that drizzle may be developing and moving towards the coast. So while I did decrease PoP...I left a fairly large area of chance PoP going to cover that. Otherwise there is a going to be a break in showers after the batch over the Midcoast we wait for convection developing south of Long Island to move north into the area. Previous discussion...Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows a cirrus shield continuing to advance northward across the area as a stratus deck begins to nudge into southern NH. Northeast radar mosaic imagery shows returns as far north as Boston, MA but latest ASOS reports indicate that the leading edge of this precipitation is not reaching the ground. This is due to a deep dry layer aloft, which will gradually be overcome from south to north through early this evening. Current temperatures range from near 70 degrees across northern areas where more in the way of sunshine has occurred today to the upper 50s and lower 60s further to the south. A surface warm front and associated weak waves of low pressure will continue to track northward along the Eastern Seaboard tonight, which will result in a band of stratiform rain to overspread the CWA from south to north. There continues to be some difference amongst model guidance but current indications are for at least showers to develop near the Massachusetts state line by around sunset before these advance northward to the Portland area by around 10pm or so. These will then become more of a stratiform rain overnight. Patchy fog is also likely to develop, especially late tonight given the plethora of low level moisture. Light and variable winds early this evening will increase some later tonight as a stronger push of a LLJ crosses overhead. The latest HRRR indicates that the greatest chance for a few gusts up to 20-25mph or so will be across the Mid- Coast of ME. In terms of rainfall amounts, given the differences in model guidance the forecast is mostly WPC QPF, which brings in between 0.50-0.75" along the coast to less than 0.20" near the Canadian Border by Monday morning. Overnight lows will be limited to the 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Stratiform rain will lead to mostly showery weather on Monday as we sit within a weak warm sector. The latest few CAM runs indicate the potential for some convective showers to develop during the early to mid-afternoon hours across interior locations and given that there will be around 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear and a few hundred joules of MUCAPE present went ahead and kept the slight chance thunder into the forecast. While not expecting any strong storms given poor mid-level lapse rates and the presence of an inversion from a CAD, any convective showers will have the potential of producing locally heavy rainfall as PWATs will be near the daily maximums. Generally expecting an additional 0.50-0.75" of rain during the day but locally higher amounts will be possible within any convection or training. Across the far north, rain will remain very light with rainfall amounts of generally less than 0.50". It will otherwise be another mild and muggy day with highs primarily into the lower 60s. Scattered showers will continue through Monday night but they will likely become more scattered in nature as the greatest forcing begins to exit the region. It will otherwise be a mild and humid night with overnight low temperatures only falling into the lower 50s across most locations. Fog is also likely to develop, which could become locally dense in some locations. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep 500 MB trough to our west and 500 MB ridging to our SE continue to battle it out out through mid meek before the weak remnants of sub-tropical low near Bermuda move around the Atlantic ridge and into New England on Wednesday, which keeps us mostly in onshore flow Tuesday and Wednesday, with lots of clouds, some fog, and the best chance for rain on Wednesday. Despite all the clouds, very warm air aloft should allow temps to reach into the low to mid 60s in many areas. Once this system moves out on Thursday, it will cool off for late in the week with dry wx , as large sfc ridge moves in from the W. It won;t stay cold for too long, as split flow in the jet over the Pacific carves out a ridge over the wrn CONUS, and provide warmer SW flow in the east. Expecting a break from showers on Tuesday, although a few cannot be completely ruled, and some DZ is possible as well, especially in the morning. There’s a chance for some sun across inland parts of NH on Tuesday, but clouds will linger along the coast through the day and in ME. Highs will generally be in the mid-upper 60s. Fog develops Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper 50s. That remnant low moves in on Wed, but there is a fair amount of certainty as to where it ends up and what kind of impact it may have, so have kept chance of showers in the forecast Wed into Wed evening. Probably there will be more in the way of clouds on Wednesday, but, like Tuesday if there is any sun, it’ll be in the west and highs once again reach the mid-upper 60s. The low lifts N of the CWA on Thursday and front move though the CWA with clearing skies. Highs range from around 60 in the N to the upper 60s on the coast as NW flow does its downslope thing. IT turns cooler on Friday with highs closer to normal in the 50s, but should see a slight warm up each, with mainly dry conditions through Sunday. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions early this evening will deteriorate from south to north tonight as a surface warm front lifts northward bringing widespread -RA to all TAF sites. SHRA will begin across southern terminals including KMHT by around 00Z before reaching more northern sites such as KAUG and KHIE between 04-06Z Monday. Ceilings will also lower with BR developing, resulting in IFR/LIFR restrictions overnight. Continued restrictions are then expected on Monday through at least Monday evening as SHRA continues along with BR/FG. Long Term...Expecting Tue morning to start IFR or lower at most terminals in fog and stratus, but should see improvement at KHIE/KLEB/KMHT/KCON to MVFR and probably VFR during the afternoon. The ME terminals may see a period of MVFR Tue afternoon, but may be stuck at IFR. IFR or lower should return to all terminals Tue night. Some improvement expected Wed morning, but will probably not do better than MVFR at most terminals. VFR returns late Wed night through the end of the week. && .MARINE... Short Term...Seas will build to 3-5 ft this evening across southern waters and therefore an SCA remains in effect for late tonight. Elsewhere seas will largely remain below 5 ft but NE winds will increase overnight with gusts up to around 20 kts. Winds decrease on Monday through Monday night but showers will continue. Long Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA levels through the end of the week. Areas of dense fog will be possible Tuesday through Wednesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Key Details: * A Red Flag Warning is in effect for central and south-central Kansas until 8 PM CDT this evening * A high wind warning is in effect for Russell and Barton Counties. A wind advisory is in effect for the rest of the CWA. * A dust advisory is in effect for portions of central Kansas * A conditional severe risk will be possible today while beneficial rainfall is expected for southeast Kansas. An upper level trough currently resides over the U.S Four Corners region with a potent shortwave that ejected into the Northern and Central Plains today. This shortwave led to lee cyclogenesis and an anomalously low surface low pressure. The shortwave trough will continue to move northeast evening and as it does a potent low level jet will develop over central and south-central Kansas with 60-70kt across this area. The CAMs and especially HRRR and RAP show lapse rates from 950-700mb 7 c/km or higher as well as good momentum transfer. This will help mix those winds to the surface and some areas may approach high wind warning criteria tonight. Only subtle precipitation trends have been noted, however with such a sharp cutoff expected a 15 to 20 miles shift could make a significant difference. There has been a trend to slow the front a couple of hours, which would allow heavier precip to move further west. These trends will need to be monitored into the now-cast period. Confidence is far higher that those east of the Kansas Turnpike and especially east of the Flint Hills will see beneficial rainfall, perhaps in the two to three inch range. We should see weather clear out across the area by midday Tuesday. Fall like weather will continue Tuesday and Wednesday with mostly clear skies and quiet conditions. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Little change in thought from the previous long range forecast. It does appear that we will keep an active pattern with another trough expected to move through Thursday into Friday and perhaps another one Saturday into Sunday. Although there isn`t a strong signal for rain in the extended, there should be a few chances coming up.&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Very strong and gusty south winds will continue through the evening. This will support areas of blowing dirt/dust, most widespread over central and western portions of Kansas. Additionally, a few thunderstorms may impact portions of central and north-central Kansas late this afternoon-evening. A strong low-level jet will support low-level wind shear within 2000 ft AGL for many locations tonight. Later tonight, expect a cold front to switch winds to northwesterly, but not as strong as today. Additionally, widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will spread northeast Monday, most prevalent generally along/southeast of the KS Turnpike. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Blowing dust and very windy conditions are expected for the first 6 hours of the TAF. Some MVFR vsbys are possible at KRSL, KGBD and KSLN until about 05Z tonight. After 06Z, winds will begin to subside as the front approaches. KHUT and KICT may have a few hours of LLWS tonight but this will not last long as the main low level jet is expected to depart the region around 08Z to 10Z this morning giving way to calmer winds. By 12Z, showers will become an increasing possibility with KHUT, KICT and KCNU the most likely terminals to see any significant rain during the day tomorrow. KCNU is likely to see a decent amount of rain after 12Z tomorrow. MVFR ceilings and visibility due to rain induced fog/mist should be expected after 15Z tomorrow. Metzger && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Extreme to catastrophic fire danger is expected to continue this afternoon. Strong gusty winds up to 60 mph have occurred and are ongoing. This will lead to fire concerns through the evening. A Red Flag Warning is still in effect through this evening for the Flint Hills and points west. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 52 63 43 65 / 40 70 20 10 Hutchinson 50 59 39 65 / 40 60 20 0 Newton 51 61 40 63 / 40 70 20 10 ElDorado 52 64 42 62 / 50 80 30 10 Winfield-KWLD 54 66 43 65 / 50 80 40 10 Russell 49 59 35 66 / 20 30 10 0 Great Bend 49 58 35 65 / 20 30 10 0 Salina 52 60 37 65 / 30 50 10 0 McPherson 50 58 38 64 / 30 60 10 0 Coffeyville 61 71 45 62 / 30 90 60 30 Chanute 59 71 45 60 / 30 90 50 30 Iola 58 71 44 60 / 30 90 50 20 Parsons-KPPF 60 71 45 61 / 30 90 50 30 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047-048-050. High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-047>052- 067-068-082-083-091-092. Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ053-069>072-093>096- 098>100. && $$ SHORT TERM...CRW LONG TERM...CRW AVIATION...Metzger FIRE WEATHER...CRW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1043 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 00Z synoptic & RAP analysis this evening indicates slow moving shortwave trough at 500mb still remaining over the Mid-Atlantic states. Mid level ridge at 500mb & 700mb is situated across the N Gulf Coast & more situated further SW over the W Gulf further aloft at 300mb. Flow aloft has increased over the Intermountain W & Four Corners in response to a vertically stacked cold core over the N Rockies. In response, a broad area of low pressure is developing across the Great Plains. With broad upper divergence spreading from S Plains across the region, increased mid-high level cloudiness will persist overnight. At the sfc, 00Z sfc analysis indicates strong gradient between developing sfc low in the central to N Plains & the +1020mb sfc high over the Mid- Atlantic states. Persistent SW return flow will keep the best moisture off to the W-NW. Increased winds look to remain in the NW Delta, while lighter to the E-SE. Lows will again be in the low 60s along & NW of a Natchez-Greenwood line, while closer to normal in the E into upper 40s to near 50 degrees in the Hwy 45 corridor. Similar to last night, bumped up lows a touch in NW & slightly cooler in the E. Some fog potential can`t be ruled out again in the Pine Belt & some recent HREF runs indicate some low stratus could build into central MS by daybreak. Added some fog to the fcst but with winds, could be a combination of some patchy fog &/or stratus near daybreak. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Through Monday: Today is unfolding similarly to yesterday. A low level CU field has developed mainly west of I-55, while warm southerly winds are gusty at times due to a tight pressure gradient between a developing system over the High Plains and an East Coast ridge. While the cu field will diminish this evening, areas of low stratus clouds may spread into the area overnight as moisture advection increases ahead of the next storm system. Though no PoP was included in the forecast, it`s within the realm of possibility a few sprinkles may accompany those low clouds tomorrow morning across south MS. The daytime hours Monday will be similarly warm and breezy, though greater cloud cover is anticipated. Wind gusts to around 30 mph will be possible at times, not quite enough to advertise as a hazard. /DL/ Tuesday through Sunday: There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. A low pressure system quickly pivoting from the Southern High Plains across AR and northern MS will drive mid-level height falls and increasing southerly flow in the lower levels into the daytime. Dew points along and just ahead of the approaching cold front should surge into the mid- to upper-60s, while forcing helps mix the lower-levels and allow for potential convection to tap into around 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE early in the morning. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of around 50-60 kts is more than enough to support some supercellular organization to storms that develop, but instability may be too weak to keep individual updrafts sustained for long. Localized damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado will be possible at least initially. As the squall line progresses eastward, model guidance indicates daytime heating and continued moistening of the low levels should boost instability with around 700-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the line when it reaches central to eastern MS in the early afternoon. This would provide a better balance for sustained updrafts and a better chance for some severe thunderstorms to develop. The threat for severe storms should quickly end from west to east through the afternoon in the wake of the front. Strong winds from the west will continue behind the front however, as a deeply mixed air mass with steep low-level lapse rates helps tight gradient winds mix to the surface. For now, have left this gradient wind threat out of the HWO text or graphics so as to not confuse messaging about the initial severe weather threat. A briefly cooler and drier few days are expected under zonal flow aloft through midweek, but then the next shortwave trough looks to arrive late in the week and develop a low centered closer to the Gulf Coast as it slides through. While confidence in the details of southern stream low pressure systems this far out is hard to come by in the cool season, the consensus of the deterministic models indicates we may stay more on the cooler northern side of the surface low during the late week/weekend time frame. This suggests cloudier and cooler weather with some rain and drizzle, with less of a chance for thunderstorms. We`ll continue to monitor trends in the guidance and update the forecast as this next system approaches. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 708 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 VFR flight cats will prevail at a majority of sites through the next 24 hours. Southerly gradient winds will lighten this evening & increase again during the day Mon, mainly after 24/16-17Z. Increased gradient winds will be the main concern across central-N TAF sites (i.e. JAN, HKS, GTR, GWO & GLH). Sustained winds up to 20mph, with gusts up to 25mph, are expected, especially in NW sites at GLH & GWO. There are continued trends towards low flight cat restrictions at PIB & HBG, due to some patchy fog & low cigs, down to to IFR-LIFR. This is possible between 24/11-13Z & lifting by just after daybreak Mon. Can`t rule out some of the low cigs sneaking into JAN & HKS before daybreak, but low confidence limits introduction during the 00Z TAF cycle. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 57 82 66 77 / 0 0 40 80 Meridian 50 79 64 77 / 0 10 20 80 Vicksburg 60 85 68 75 / 0 0 50 70 Hattiesburg 55 82 67 80 / 10 10 30 70 Natchez 60 83 68 76 / 0 0 50 70 Greenville 62 85 67 73 / 0 0 60 70 Greenwood 59 84 67 74 / 0 0 40 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DC/NF/DC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
913 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 ...New UPDATE... ...INLAND LATE NIGHT FOG, AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE... .UPDATE... Issued at 857 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Shallow moisture advection from the the east increased low level moisture this evening across the forecast area in the wake of passing trough axis sliding down the SE Atlantic coast and the inland progressing east coast sea breeze. Shower potential with the trough was well south of the the local coastal waters with dry conditions expected tonight. The main weather concern tonight will be areas of fog inland, some locally dense through sunrise Monday morning especially across parts of inland SE GA and between the I-75 corridor and St. Johns River basin of NE FL. Current NAM, SREF, RAP, NBM and HRRR continued to favor SE GA and areas near and north of the I-10 corridor for best fog potential, but extended the fog southward down across NE FL to the St. Johns River basin and inland toward I-75 near Gainesville where moisture advected inland and boundary layer winds will be favorable for fog as well. Updated the forecast to include areas of fog with patchy dense for these areas. High cirrus clouds will increase from the WNW tonight, but at this time believe they will be progressive enough where radiational cooling conditions will still be favorable under a low level ridge center, light boundary layer winds and favorable dew pt depressions. It is possible that a dense fog advisory may be needed for some portion of the forecast area early tomorrow morning. Temperatures tonight will trend warmer but still generally below climo values from near 50 well inland to near 60 at the coast. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 High pressure ridge will be over the region through Tonight. A weak trough to the east of the area this afternoon, will move to the south of the area this evening. The combination of low level moisture, and light winds will result in fog formation overnight. Patchy to areal coverage is expected, with the potential for this fog to become dense. Lows Tonight will range from the lower 50s inland, to the lower 60s coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 High pressure ridge will remain over the area Monday into Monday night, with this ridge moving off to the east northeast Tuesday into Tuesday night. Due to subsidence under high, dry weather will persist Monday into Tuesday, with mainly clear skies. Low level moisture, and light winds will provide the potential for fog again Monday night and Tuesday night. A cold front will move east southeast across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Moisture is somewhat lacking with this boundary, but enough to warrant chances for showers and a few thunderstorms as boundary passes through. High pressure will build to the north Thursday, with a dry day under mainly clear skies expected. Temperatures will trend near to a little above normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Sunday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 High pressure ridge will extend south into area Thursday night through Friday. Dry weather will persist into Friday. A low pressure system will move across the Gulf coast and affect the region next weekend. The combination of moisture from the northeast wrapping around the high, and moisture ahead of the Gulf low, will result in chances for weekend showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures this period will trend a little above normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 728 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 VFR conditions this evening under decreasing ENE winds 5-10 kts. An increase in low level moisture from the east today under calm winds inland will create better fog and low stratus potential after 06z tonight, especially near JAX, VQQ and GNV. Model guidance remained in good agreement with MVFR to IFR conditions developing between 06-09z at these terminals, with restrictions lowering through 12z to LIFR/VLIFR. Highest confidence of LIFR/VLIFR was indicated with prevailing conditions by 08z for VQQ and GNV, with IFR for JAX by 09z and TEMPO LIFR between 09-12z. There will be increasing high clouds from the WNW through the night, but at this time believe coverage will be thin enough to not significantly inhibit radiational cooling and limit fog potential. A lower sun angle and weak northerly flow will be slow to erode fog and low stratus inland given stable low level conditions. Indicated improvement to VFR by 13-14z at this time. Low stratus will lift into a low cumulus deck and scatter as diurnal heating mixes down some drier air above the surface, but SCT cumulus 3-4 kft agl bases are expected into Monday afternoon under ENE flow 5-10 kts, near 10-12 kts at SGJ int the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 High pressure ridge will be over the region through Tuesday. A cold front will move east southeast across the area during the day Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will build to the north Thursday into Friday. A low pressure system will move east across the Gulf coast and affect region next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 50 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 58 77 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 54 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 60 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 54 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 57 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT Monday for FLZ133-138. GA...None. AM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
857 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 856 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 00Z upper air analysis places an upper level low off Baja California and another upper level low off the Carolina Coast, and an upper level trough axis over the Western United States. Southwest flow aloft is present across the Plains and Mississippi Valley this evening. GOES-16 satellite trends indicate some high clouds moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley producing partly cloudy skies. As of 8 PM CDT, temperatures across the forecast area range from the mid 60s to lower 70s with the warmest temperatures along and west of the Mississippi River. Rain free conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the night with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Forecast remains in good shape overall and no updates anticipated at this time. CJC && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 A nearly carbon copy of yesterday`s weather across the Mid-South right now. Temperatures are in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees areawide under mostly sunny skies. Winds have been a bit stronger today with gusts as high as 35 mph along the Delta Region. The latest surface analysis places a 1023 mb high over northern Georgia with a double-barreled 985 mb low over northeast Colorado and central South Dakota respectively. Winds have been exceptionally strong between these two systems, as several high wind warnings are in effect across the Plains today. Aloft, three distinct troughs are analyzed across North America. The upper low from Tropical Storm Roslyn over Central Mexico, the low off the coast of Baja California, and lastly the trough over Wyoming. These three systems are expected to phase to the lee of the Rockies by tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of the system, deep southwesterly flow will setup across much of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. The trough is expected to take on a negative tilt as it pushes into the region on Tuesday. Several models, notably the GFS, HRRR and ECMWF, have sped the system up quite a bit. Confidence in severe weather is lower than expected with system, as several developing parts need to come together quickly. As it stands, synoptic wind fields are very impressive with 0-1 km SRH values in excess of 350 and a mid level 80 knot speed max. A surface low is expected to develop near sunrise on Tuesday morning over central Arkansas and occlude over the Mid- South during the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will leave a rather skinny and short-lived warm sector over portions of Mississippi. With such strong forcing aloft, a QLCS is the likely storm mode with the potential for embedded circulations within the line. Instability in the warm sector could approach 750 J/kg of MLCAPE, but will probably remain below that figure. Nonetheless, damaging wind gusts and a few weak tornadoes are possible if all of the ingredients come together in that small window Tuesday morning into early afternoon. The line of storms is forecast to be east of the Tennessee River by late afternoon or early evening Tuesday. Behind the front, cooler air will settle in for Wednesday and Thursday. Expect highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures will moderate by late week as upper level flow shifts southwesterly ahead of an approaching trough. Some timing and location differences still exist in the long term forecast, however, another chance of rain looks likely by late next weekend. AC3 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will still remain elevated through the TAF period around 10 KTS overnight then increasing and gusting during the day on Monday. Expect strong south-southwesterly low level winds to continue through the Monday evening MEM arrival push - likely accompanied by -SHRA near the western TRACON. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...MJH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1030 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak coastal low and associated frontal system will affect the waters through Tuesday. The weak low will dissipate over the Mid Atlantic region on Tuesday while another weak low approaches from the southeast for midweek. This low will pass just east of New England Wednesday night while a cold front moves through the area. Strengthening high pressure over the Plains and upper Great Lakes will then build just north of the area and remain in control through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Frontogenetically forced rainfall from earlier today has ended with drier air moving in aloft along with continued surface ridging. Spotty light precip cannot be ruled out over the next few hours. Models seem to be in better agreement that this respite will be short-lived though. With continued deep SE flow (strengthened S LLJ) and shearing upper low drifting up the coast, it appears deeper moisture and elevated instability advect into the region late tonight into Monday (particularly E portions of the region). This seems to manifest in a warm conveyor belt of scattered heavy downpours (embedded tstms possible) lifting up the coast. Uncertainty on where the main focus of the WCB axis orients, but the synoptic lift and continued moisture feed should help reinvigorate shower activity overnight and continuing through Monday morning. The highest probability for training locally heavy downpours with isolated tstms appears to be across LI/CT. HRRR indicating potential for rainfall rates to approach 1"/hr in the heaviest activity late tonight into Monday, with SPC HREF indicating a low prob of 3"/3hr where training occurs. Overall, this equates to a general threat of minor urban and poor drainage flooding in vicinity of training cells late tonight into Monday afternoon, with a low and localized threat for flash flooding. Synoptic forcing slowly weakens Mon afternoon as elongated and sheared trough axis weakens just to the southwest, combined with a weakened thermal gradient as warm front/coastal front slides westward. This will allow for a weakening of WCB and a general transition to spotty light rain and drizzle. Otherwise, unseasonably mild and humid tonight and seasonably mild on Monday in the sub-tropical flow, despite clouds, ne flow and rain. NE winds as high as 15-20 mph continue for the coast through this evening. This gradient weakens overnight as high pressure continue to retreat north. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... Sheared trough axis weakens continues to weaken Monday night, while at the surface the weak coastal/warm front will continue to weaken and push west of the Hudson river. Moist low-level E flow, strengthening low level flow, and strong inversion aloft points to widespread stratus and drizzle and patchy fog, with better chance of showers across western portions of the region in vicinity of coastal front. Otherwise, another unseasonably mild night well into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong upper level ridging out over the Atlantic will begin to weaken to start this time frame, caught in a squeeze play between a weak non-tropical low moving NW through it toward New England, troughing extending from off the SE coast up into the Mid Atlantic region, and a potent southern stream cutoff low advancing from the S Plains and Mississippi valley and kicking the aforementioned systems off to the east Wed night. A weak sfc low associated with the nearby trough to the west should dissipate on Tue over the Mid Atlantic region, but associated rain bands should hang on into Wed especially from the NYC metro area west as mid and upper level forcing continues and then moves across. Most of the precip with the offshore low should remain tied to low level WAA to its east as it moves close to the 40N/70W benchmark Wed AM, impacting eastern New England. The srn stream kicker cutoff low meanwhile should lift NE through the OH valley and ern Great Lakes Wed into Wed night, with an associated cold front passing through late Wed night and ushering in dry/cooler wx to finish the week and last through the weekend. Rejected NBM idea of 20-30 PoP for Saturday/Sunday with deterministic model guidance insisting on the high remaining dominant during this time frame. Mild temps to start the time frame will return closer to normal for Fri/Sat after the cold frontal passage, then moderate somewhat on Sunday. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak coastal low and associated frontal system will impact the terminals through Monday. Conditions will continue tonight to MVFR and then IFR after midnight. Some spotty light rain is possible initially with periods of rain redeveloping overnight into early Monday morning. Some local LIFR is possible early Monday morning, especially on Long Island. IFR with some rain continues into Monday morning. Coverage of rain looks lower Monday afternoon, but IFR is likely to continue with low potential of brief improvement to MVFR middle to late afternoon. NE winds 10-15 kt to start should settle to around 10 kt or less overnight. NNE-NE winds 5 to 10 kt are likely to continue on Monday. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of IFR tonight may be off by 1-2 hours. There is also a low chance of LIFR conditions early Monday morning. Conditions should remain IFR through Monday, but there is a low chance for brief improvement to MVFR in the afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday Night...IFR, possibly LIFR. Chance of light rain. .Tuesday-Wednesday...MVFR to IFR conditions. Chance of a shower. .Thursday-Friday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ && .MARINE... SCA winds expected on the ocean thru late tonight, with accompanying sees of 6 to 9 ft. Latest guidance still indicating a period of 25-kt gusts for eastern LIS, eastern bays, and southern bays. Elsewhere, an ocnl gust to 25kt cannot be ruled out thru this eve. Winds lighten late tonight into Mon, with easterly ocean wind waves gradually subsiding Monday. Winds and seas are expected to remain blw sca lvls through mid week. As strengthening high pressure builds to the north, persistent NE flow on its srn flank may lead to minimal SCA conds on the ocean waters especially E of Fire Island Inlet Fri into Fri night, with winds gusts up to 235 kt and seas up to 5 ft. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall of 1/5 to 2 inches likely across E LI and SE CT through Monday, tapering to 1/4 to 1/2 west of the Hudson River. This could be locally higher depending on orientation of warm conveyor belt rain bands. Rainfall rates approaching 1"/hr possible in the heaviest activity late tonight into Monday, with SPC HREF indicating a low prob of 3"/3hr where training occurs. Overall, this equates to a threat of minor urban and poor drainage flooding in vicinity of training cells late tonight into Monday afternoon, with a low and localized threat for flash flooding. Otherwise, no widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/NV NEAR TERM...BG/DS/NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...BG AVIATION...DS MARINE...BG/NV HYDROLOGY...BG/NV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
138 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing a broad upper low over the Wyoming Rockies lifting slowly NE with time. Numerical models, particularly the Hires models, continue to support some sort of quasi-Snake Convergent precipitation activity late this afternoon that drifts into the SE highlands. Looking at radar, some very weak returns are evident near Dubois drifting south and surface observations are generally supportive of some sort of convergence with the NNW flow dumping out of the CNTRL mountain-valleys and decent west flow over the Magic Valley. Thus I don`t believe it would be prudent to pull the plug on the precipitation potential until we get through the evening hours. After that, with the low exiting NE of the region we should see clearing skies and plummeting temperatures under a north flow aloft. The next upstream disturbance, currently rotating into SW Alaska, is expected to dig SE into WRN Canadian tonight before shearing SE through the NRN Rockies and SE Idaho Monday night and Tuesday morning. This looks to be a fairly progressive short-wave which exits the region late Tuesday afternoon. Snow accumulations should be confined mainly to the Sawtooth region and the SE Highlands generally running at or below advisory levels. Thus no highlights are anticipated with this feature at this time. Daytime temperatures should remain a bit below normal through the period with breezy winds Monday and Tuesday. Huston .LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Sunday. An upper level trough will deepen as it moves in from the northwest Tuesday night. This will bring some moderately impactful winter weather to the region starting Wednesday. NBM 4.1 guidance shows a 50 to 60 percent chance of 4+ inches in the Sawtooth Range including Galena Summit, and around a 30% chance for 6+ inches in the same area. The same upper trough will bring strong winds across the Snake Plain Wednesday afternoon with peak gusts 35 to 40 mph. Deterministic models seem to be in fair agreement with the track and intensity of the upper trough. Ensemble clusters show some variance late in the week as the upper trough splits somewhere over the Colorado Front Range with also some variance on the strength of the upstream ridge. The weather in the latter half of the week and into Saturday looks dry, mainly because of said ridge. However, the ridge looks to quickly shift to the east Friday night with Saturday and Sunday trending wetter. Hinsberger && .AVIATION...Mid-level trough has passed to the east, but we`re still dealing with some instability that will likely result in afternoon showers across the Snake Plain. VFR conditions are generally favored today, but snowshowers could briefly drop cig/vis to IFR. High-res models favor showers developing at PIH, IDA, and DIJ this afternoon. It appears less likely at BYI and SUN, but 3km NAM and HRRR show showers in the vicinity. Ridging will work its way in overnight, and there is potential for fog developing as skies clear. NBM and HREF guidance continue to favor VFR conditions overnight, and probabilities of visibility 3SM or less is highest in the Arco Desert/INL area and maybe a 15 to 25 percent chance of IFR VIS at IDA. Hinsberger && .FIRE WEATHER...The bulk of precipitation is now east of our region, with wrap-around moisture bringing isolated to scattered precipitation through tonight. Hi-res models show showers continuing throughout the day, with coverage increasing around 4 PM across all of eastern Idaho, and all moisture outside of the state by around midnight. Snow levels are supportive of snow at valley floors. Additional snowfall today will generally remain south and east of the Snake River Plain in Zones 411 and 413 as the low continues eastward. Snow accumulations will likely be an inch or less across the valleys and around 1 to 5 inches above 7,000 feet through midnight. Skies will clear west to east overnight tonight into tomorrow morning before another round of clouds moves in Monday evening ahead of the next approaching system. Winds will be breezy again today, with sustained winds up to around 20 mph and 30 mph gusts. Higher magnitudes will potentially be observed across Zones 425 and 427, as well as across the ridgelines in Zone 476. Although winds could reach critical thresholds at times, minimum humidities will remain above critical for the next week. The next system to monitor will move in late Monday, which will be the first in a series of troughs to come out of the Pacific Northwest through late week. These will bring continued precipitation chances this week. Temperatures will remain around normal to below normal through the end of the week. Cropp/Keyes && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
805 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Surface obs show the dry line has retreated to the west slightly over the last hour or so. Meanwhile the agitated CU field over central KS has fallen apart for the most part, probably due to weakened convergence along the dryline. The RAP13 prog shows a corridor of steep mid level lapse rates remaining over parts of north central KS through the evening, but inhibition to a surface parcel remains significant (100 to 200 J/kg of negative CAPE) ahead of the front. Models keep the nose of the low level jet north of the forecast area and the latest HRRR only has some isolated convection while other CAMs struggle to produce much if any reflectivity. So given the lapse rates and abundant shear, will have to keep an eye out for an isolated thunderstorm. But it looks like the overall chances for thunderstorms may be lessening. The pressure gradient looks to remain capable of wind advisory level winds and will keep the advisory going. Have let the red flag warning expire. While south winds will continue gusting between 40 and 50 mph into the early morning hours, slowly cooling temperatures and increasing moisture are expected to let relative humidity levels slowly recover. Have also bumped min temps up across the eastern portions of the forecast area. Models hold off bring the front all the way through the forecast area until late morning or around noon. So temps for eastern counties may remain in the lower to mid 60s through mid morning. Increasing clouds and rain are forecast to prevent much of a diurnal trend for Monday as well. If the rain develops as the models show, temps could be stuck in the 50s all day Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 -Strong wind gusts through the evening of 40 to 50 MPH. Wind advisory in effect through 1 AM Monday, Red flag warning across north central KS until 7 PM -Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and into the early morning hours of Monday. A few could produce wind gusts of 60 MPH. -Cooler with a chances for showers on Monday, with the best chances across the eastern half of the area. An intense upper level trough was lifting northeast across the high Plains. A deep surface and 850m low was located across SD and the tight pressure sfc pressure gradient was causing strong wind gusts of 38 to 48 MPH across the CWA this afternoon. This evening the LLJ at 2K to 3K ft will increase to near 70KTS. Thus the strong southerly wind gusts will continue into the evening as the boundary layer remains well mixed. A dryline was located across central KS, just west of the CWA this afternoon. The warm advection showers and few elevated storms will move northeast out of the CWA after 3 PM. A few CAMs were showing storms forming along the dryline after 23Z. However the EML may provide a strong enough cap to prevent isolated storms from forming late this afternoon early evening. However, if storms do form they will tap into the stronger winds 2000 feet above the surface and may provide downdraft winds to 60 to 70 MPH. Even though MLCAPE is only 300 to 500 J/KG but any weak updraft could tap into the stronger winds 2000 feet above the surface. Otherwise, the better chance for storms may come as the surface cold front pushes southeast across the CWA later Tonight. The potential is there with the strong LLJ of 60 to 70 KTS for some downdraft outflows to produce winds gusts of 60 MPH. But instability will remain low despite good low-level vertical windshear. frontogenesis northwest of the surface front, along with DCVA ahead of the H5 trough axis will provide periods of showers on Monday into Monday night across the CWA. The better rain chance will be across the eastern counties where 1/2 to 1 inch of rainfall may occur by late Monday. I can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder. There will be another chance for rain late this week as an upper level trough digs east-southeast across the southern Plains late Thursday through Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday) Issued at 548 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 The pressure gradient looks to remain strong through the evening. So while the magnitude of the winds may decrease slightly, I expect strong south winds to remain gusty well into the night. Precip chances ahead of the front appear to be isolated. More widespread precip should develop along the boundary and move northeast by mid morning as better dynamics kick out from the southern Rockies. There looks to be some MVFR CIGS and possibly some IFR visibilities with a mainly stratiform precip. Confidence in visibilities less than 3 miles is marginal depending on where the boundary is. So will keep the forecast MVFR for now. An isolated TS will be possible as well. Chance for TS Monday may be to small to include in the forecast at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 A Red Flag Warning will be in effect through 8 PM for the western half of the CWA today. RH values in that area are forecast to be between 25 and 35 percent at their lowest this afternoon. While this is higher than our usual RFW criteria for RH, the very dry fuels and intense winds will set the stage for rapid fire spread if fires develop. Southwest winds will be sustained between 25 and 35 mph and could gusts to as high as 55 mph today. Thus, a RFW will continue in coordination with the Kansas Forest Service. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>010- 020>022-034>037. Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ008>012-020>024-026- 034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ UPDATE...Wolters DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Wolters FIRE WEATHER...Teefey
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
323 PM MST Sun Oct 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty winds, cooler temps, and increasing clouds can be expected today. The best chance of showers, storms, and high elevation mountain snow will be this evening into tomorrow morning as a cold front moves through, bringing much cooler temperatures to start the new work week. Sub freezing temperatures are possible for most of Cochise County Tuesday morning, especially Sulphur Springs Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Cold front draping down from the north, still just north and west of our CWA. We`re still in the southwesterly upslope / warm sector with light showers in the mountains, but not much reaching the surface in the valleys yet. The HRRR is still advertising some convective bands ahead of the front this evening with isolated embedded thunder, mainly from eastern Pima and Santa Cruz counties eastward into New Mexico. FROPA from northwest and north pushing through SE AZ in the morning hours, with dewpoints crashing behind the front and a dry cooler northerly flow through the day Tuesday. Still looking like a quick-hitting low QPF event with 0 to .25 in valleys and .1 to .5 in mountains. Snow levels will be above mountain peaks until the deepest moisture is already moving out. With initial precip falling as rain, only 1 to 2 inches of snow possible in the mountains. Clear skies, light winds, and a drier colder airmass should come together for the first widespread freeze in colder valley locations east and south of Tucson Tuesday morning. ECMWF min temp extreme forecast index highlighting SE AZ. A few isolated locations may briefly drop into hard freeze range (<=28F). A shortwave ridge will bring a rapid warmup Tuesday and Wednesday as heights and thicknesses bounce back toward seasonal averages, with daytime highs following suit. Another system diving down from the north is expected to brush by just northeast and east of SE AZ, with a few showers in the mountains and several degrees of cooling Thursday. Another ridge in a continuing high energy pattern will push temperatures back above climo by next weekend. && .AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z. West to southwest sfc winds 10-25 kts through much of the day with gusts up to around 25-35 kts. Strongest winds will be closer to the New Mexico border. Winds diminishing to 12 kts or less most locations aft 26/04Z. Scattered to numerous -SHRA and mountain top -SHSN increase aft 24/01Z with isolated -TSRA possible as well. Precipitation chances rapidly diminishing after 24/12Z. SCT-BKN 6K-10K FT MSL, becoming BKN-OVC with brief periods of lower ceilings with MVFR conditions during - SHRA activity, with MTN obscuration as well. Clearing from the west behind FROPA Monday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... A storm system will impact southeast Arizona this evening through tomorrow morning, resulting in a chance of showers and higher elevation snow, a few storms, and cooler temperatures. Best chance of precipitation will be this evening into early Monday morning with dry conditions returning for most locales by late Monday morning. Gusty west/southwest 20-foot winds around 20 mph this afternoon with less wind Monday through Wednesday favoring the west/northwest. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight Monday night to 8 AM MST Tuesday for AZZ503-507>509. && $$ Meyer Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at