Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/18/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1039 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Cold frontal passage brings the chance for more widespread rain tonight and early Tuesday. Gusty south-southeast winds will gradually subside as the front pulls away Tuesday afternoon. Seasonably chilly air mid week, with highs in the 50s and several nights in the 30s will lead to milder conditions by the weekend. At this time, it looks dry beyond Tuesday evening! && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Main changes this evening to adjust rainfall chances and timing. relied rather heavily upon the latest HRRR runs, which appeared to be handling it well. A few instances of lightning, but most of the higher reflectivity echoes were topping out just below -10C. Not expecting many thunderstorms overnight with meager amounts of buoyancy. Analyzed mid level lapse rates were steeper than 6C, which is rather potent for this time of day and year. Expecting focus to shift from eastern CT and north central MA to RI and more of eastern MA as a cold front crawls its way across southern New England. Likely will take all night for this front to reach the coast. 730 pm update... Second surge of moisture and precipitation is on our doorstep, moving into western MA/CT in the last hour. Rain will pick up across the region over the next 5-7 hours. Main change with this evening`s update was to slightly adjust the timing of the arrival of the heavier rain based on radar. Previous Discussion... Rain showers will linger early this evening before a second surge of more widespread precipitation develops ahead of the incoming cold front along an emerging low pressure system. Most short term guidance, like the HRRR and the NAM, pinpoint areas south and east of Worcester as the area having the potential to receive the most precipitation overnight. Some modest instability, given it is mid- October, of 200J/kg CAPE and K index values nearing 35 across SE MA and Cape Cod may support a few rumbles of thunder. HI-Res guidance does show the potential development of a convective line between 05- 12Z tomorrow, mainly centered across the Cape. It is here we are expecting the highest rainfall totals, with HREF mean ensemble probs of 1" QPF over 3 hours exceeding 50%. This spells good news for the region, as portions of Cape have missed out on some of bouts of precipitation that have impacted interior southern New England over the past month. Early Tuesday morning, a low level jet will develop along the frontal boundary. While the NAM seems out to lunch, with a 65kt jet over Boston, a 30-35 kt jet appears likely. Gusts will likely mix down in convective cells, but given the jet develops pre- sunrise, we are not expecting mixing to reach it`s full potential until the jet begins to move offshore later in the day. Still, gusts to 30 kt are possible across the Cape and the waters. Clearing will begin to develop to our west before sunrise, but the front will be slow to pull away. Radiational cooling potential is not great tonight, given cloud cover, so the thought is lows will linger between the mid 40s at elevation to the low 60s across the Cape. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The thunderstorms and showers mentioned in the near term discussion will continue through about mid-day as the slow moving cold front begins to move out to sea. Some guidance suggests that there will be a tertiary round of precipitation impacting the Cape Tuesday afternoon, but most portions of interior southern New England will be precip free after about 15Z. As mentioned, clearing is expected to occur very slowly and while portions of western, southern New England break into sunshine late Tuesday morning, it may take all day for patches of sun to develop across eastern MA and RI. One may think that areas that break out into sunshine will achieve the highest temperatures Tuesday, but such is not the case as 925mb temps plummet to between 3-5C behind the front. So, while solar heating will help temps rise to the mid-50s across our western zones, the warmest part of our CWA will be under the cloud cover in eastern MA. 925mb temperatures between 10-14 degrees will help temps surge to the mix to upper 60s across Cape Cod and Nantucket! Dewpoints crater behind the front, and clearing conditions Tuesday set us up for an optimal radiational cooling night Wednesday night. Winds will decouple after sunset, and with cold air aloft, to the tune of 0-2C thanks to the very deep trough and cut off low just to our west, temperatures will fall back into the 30s away from the coast. Given the coldest temperatures will occur across NW MA, where our Frost/Freeze program has ended for the season, and the Frost/Freeze risk isolated to between 10 and 12Z elsewhere, we opted to forgo a frost advisory. Later shifts may re-evaluate based on new guidance. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Dry weather continues through at least Saturday. There is potential for our next system by Sunday but low confidence. * Cooler than normal temperatures persist through Thursday, steadily warming up back into the upper 60s by the weekend. Details... Precipitation... Southern New England should stay dry through all of the extended forecast period. Even though we`ll be in the vicinity of a deep trough to our west on Wednesday and Thursday, BUFKIT soundings show a very dry atmospheric column so no precipitation is expected. Beyond Thursday meridional flow becomes more zonal through the weekend while high pressure builds in at the surface. Given this there will be no significant disturbances to bring any rain. The one low probability exception could be a coastal low around Sunday, but the deterministic ECMWF continues to be an outlier in showing this, so not giving much credence to that. The notable effect of the trough Wednesday/Thursday will be breezy winds. A 25-35 kt low level jet develops at 925 mb which will mix down gusts of 25 to 35 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures... Cooler than normal temperatures persist on Wednesday and Thursday thanks to a very cool airmass overhead with 850 mb temperatures below zero. This will translate to highs in the 50s each day, save for low 60s on the Cape and islands. It will likely feel cooler thanks to the breezy winds. As that zonal flow moves overhead it allows for an intrusion of much warmer air as we go into the weekend (850 mb temps back up to +8 to 10C). This sets us up for a nice, dry weekend with highs in the upper 60s which persist into the start of the new work week. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight... High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing. MVFR/IFR conditions overnight, gradually improving to VFR across our western terminals before sunrise. Terminals across our eastern zones will experience reduced vsbys due to rains showers through 12z. Isolated thunderstorms may impact Nantucket, Hyannis, and Falmouth. Winds will pick up from the south ahead of a cold front. A low level jet at 925mb will generate low level wind shear for across the Cape and Islands. Tuesday... MVFR/IFR conditions to start, improving to VFR from W to E through the day as a cold front pushes through. Showers ending last towards the east coast late in the day. Winds shift to the SW/W at 5-10 kts once the front passes through. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends, but only moderate confidence in timing. Not out of the question there could be a rumble of thunder or two late tonight. Have held off on a mention as am not confident enough on the coverage. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends, but only moderate confidence in timing. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Friday through Saturday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. A cold front approaches from the west as southerly winds between 10-15 kt gust to between 25 and 30 kt through Tuesday morning. Low confidence in gale force conditions between 06-12Z Tuesday ahead of the cold front. Gusts over 30kt will be, generally, isolated to convective cells, and given the short duration of gale potential, we opted to keep small craft advisories in place. Later shifts may re- evaluate but thinking any gales could be covered by marine weather statements. Winds become westerly, generally gusting below 15 kt, behind the frontal passage Tuesday night. While winds begin to subside, it will take some time for waves to fall below 5 ft across the outer waters. It is likely small crafts will need to be extended beyond their current length. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BW/KS NEAR TERM...Belk/BW/KS SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...Belk/BW/KS MARINE...Belk/BW/KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1022 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Nothing new going on to change the fcst. The same questions remain in regards to clouds from western Manitoba south to Carrington ND. Band is shrinking in width but still there. Models want to get rid of it too soon. It seems to be in the area where winds go from north to southeast in the sfc ridge axis. Cloud bases are 10k ft agl so impacts to aviation is minimal. Added a bit more sky cover to far east as clouds moving SSW from Ontario continue to skirt Baudette to Waskish to Walker MN. UPDATE Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Narrow band of AC moving south from western Manitoba into Cando and Rugby to Harvey ND. HRRR has cloud area shifting south overnight and that area clearing. But that remains to be seen. Devils Lake itself may get into the clouds. If clouds linger this would impact temps. Otherwise clear sky eastern ND into western MN. CU Baudette to Bemidji to Wadena scattered out and almost cleared out. With light winds, dry airmass in place and clear sky overnight ideal cooling with lows in the teens very likely, exception could be Devils Lake area with clouds. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Temperatures remain the main challenge for the period. Meridional flow continues over the Northern Plains the the upper low digs into the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure extends from Manitoba into the Red River Valley and that will change little as we head into the overnight period. Cloud cover has pushed off into central ND and our western counties will be clear with light winds overnight as well as the Red River Valley. Temps should fall into the low to mid teens. Less certain is the Lake of the Woods area, where there continues to be some lingering stratocu and CAMs show a signal for radar returns coming off of the lakes. Not highly confident in any precip reaching the ground, but have a bit more clouds and slightly higher temps in our far eastern counties. Temps tomorrow will be a couple of degrees higher than today in the upper 30s to low 40s with cold air advection weakening and the air mass starting to modify. Still below average, but the warming trend will start. True warm air advection begins to kick in Tuesday night, and there should be a bit more cloud cover as a weak shortwave comes down the northerly flow. Thus, overnight lows should stay a bit higher in the 20s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 1.) A mostly quiet long term is in store for us with gradually warming temperatures by the end of the week. 2.) There is a strong ensemble signal for a system late this weekend into early next week that could bring precipitation to the area. Numerous uncertainties still exist that prevent specific details on potential impacts. METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... Large scale ridging will dominate the beginning of the long term period. This should allow temperatures to warm up slowly throughout the week to back into the 60s by the end of the work week. NBM temperatures indicate a very small temperature spread through at least Sunday, indicating high confidence in high temperatures maxing out in the upper 60s and low 70s. Ensembles have very high confidence in large scale ridging beginning to break down and begin to usher in a hefty wave at the end of the long term period. Ensemble forecast percentiles all reflect a very strong signal for a strongly forced system, with minimum SLP percentiles showing up across the northern plains by Monday. While this does lend confidence to at least the existence of some potent troughing, guidance breaks down heavily on location of the trough, which subsequently leads to high uncertainty in impacts for our area. Location of the trough and attached surface low would cause impacts to range from potentially no precipitation to rain to snow. For the minimum expectations right now, the general model consensus is an upper trough will exist with strong forcing. It just becomes a matter of where and how intense. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Skies clear in the RRV into Tuesday with a north wind 4 to 8 kts. DVL area on the edge of mid clouds dropping south from Manitoba. CU going away around Bemidji. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...Perroux AVIATION...Riddle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1030 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A mainly dry cold front will move through tonight. Cold and dry high pressure is then expected Tuesday into late week with frost possible inland each morning through midweek. Low pressure could develop offshore this weekend. && .UPDATE... Have lowered POPs to 20 percent or less, ie. isolated shra or tsra, with the last of the activity off the ILM NC coast early in the pre-dawn hrs. Cold front dropping SE-ward, should clear the ILM SC Coast between 12am and 2 am, and the ILM NC Coast between 1am and 3am, via latest HRRR model run. Ptly or variably cloudy ahead of the cold front with high stratocu or altocu the primary clouds, lower based clouds if any pcpn occurs. Min temps just a tweak, if any, needed. Some tweaks to the overnight into daylight Tue winds with SCA still good til 6am Tue. May need to adjust further if the combined CAA and tightened sfc pg keep winds active into daylight Tue. Seas generally 3 to 5 ft overnight, with 6 footers possible off Cape Fear. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... The lack of cumulus development suggests that the area failed to destabilize appreciably and the SPC mesoanalysis page shows us capped to MLCAPE. The window for any convection developing appears to be closing fast. Hi res models show that perhaps the immediate Cape Fear region sees isolated showers this evening into early tonight but not anticipating thunder. The strong cold front enters the CWA close to midnight and the cold dry air starts pouring in. Tuesday afternoon may turn a bit breezy as the 850 winds veer and line up better with the surface flow, though overall low level wind fields will be weakening. Lows tonight will actually be seasonably cool but Tuesday`s highs will be some 10 degrees below normal as the CAA continues. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast confidence: Moderate to high Surface high pressure will slowly build into the area from the west while troughing persists aloft. Main forecast challenges will be temperatures and frost potential. Confidence is high that temperatures will be well below normal through the period. Lows should mainly be in the mid to upper 30s inland Tuesday and Wednesday nights with some frost possible, especially Wednesday night when the high pressure is closer and winds will be lighter. There is even a low risk for isolated freezing temperatures Tue/Wed nights in the normally colder inland outlying areas, especially Wed night when radiational cooling conditions should be most favorable. Could even be near record lows for Oct 19/20, especially at Florence. Could even see some frost well inland again Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast confidence: Moderate through Friday night, then low to moderate into early next week. Surface high pressure should prevail inland with possible low pressure developing offshore. Best moisture and convergence should be closer to the coast where there could be some showers. Temperatures should start out a bit below normal before moderating to near to above normal levels. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR to dominate this 24 hr period. CFP slated for late this evening across inland terminals and early in the pre-dawn Tue hrs for the coastal terminals. Moisture limited to altocu decks or high stratocu decks prior to and atleast 5 hrs after FROPA. Chance for pcpn associated with the CFP are too low to even include vicinity group. Winds will veer from SSW- SW to W 5 to 10 kt prior to the CFP...NW- NNW 5 to 10 kt with initial g15 kt possible after the CFP. From 14Z thru 24Z, looking at mainly SKC with NW around 10 kt occasional g15 kt as CAA and a tightened sfc pg combine. Look for winds to diminish to WNW-NW 5 kt or less after 23Z. Extended Outlook...High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...Marginal Small Craft advisory ongoing in the prefrontal flow regime with occasional gusts. Wind swings around to the NW with FROPA later tonight as low level wind fields start to weaken. No changes have been made to the advisory timing with the afternoon package. As dominant wave height abates on Tuesday dominant period decreases by about a second from the wind shift. Tuesday night through Saturday: Forecast confidence this period is moderate to high through Friday night, then low to moderate Saturday. Breezy conditions will linger into Wednesday before high pressure builds more overhead with benign conditions into Friday night. A tightening pressure gradient between inland high pressure and possible offshore low pressure should lead to deteriorating conditions later Friday night and Saturday, however the extent to which is uncertain at this time. && .CLIMATE... Record lows for Oct 19... ILM: 35/1992 FLO: 34/1948 LBT: 28/1982 MYR: 36/1948 Record lows for Oct 20... ILM: 35/1992 FLO: 34/1992 LBT: 28/1986 MYR: 36/1992 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...DCH NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...DCH/RJB MARINE...MBB/RJB CLIMATE...RJB
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
818 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level trough continues to be the dominant weather influencer for the Ohio Valley for the first half of the week. Strong northwesterly flow will allow for temperatures to drop 15 to 20 degrees below normal and scattered showers mid week may have some snow mixed in. A warm up is expected near the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A convective lake enhanced rain/snow band is persisting across northern Indiana early this evening. The southern edge of this is weaker but has been encroaching upon northwest portions of our area. The latest HRRR keeps this band going through the evening hours while slowly retrograding it back to the west. As a result have nudged up pops into likely category for our far northwest areas and will bring a slight chance/chance across much of the rest of our western areas over the next few hours. Temperatures across our northwest have dropped into the upper 30s and will likely continue to fall into the mid 30s through the late evening as we continue to get some evaporative cooling on top of the CAA. Between this and some wet bulb effect, some snow will mix in with the rain with perhaps all snow for a period time through the evening hours across our far northwest. Ground temperatures are warm but suppose a light dusting on grassy/elevated surfaces cannot be ruled out across portions of our northwest. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Synoptically, a large upper level low continues to slowly shift southeast while its expansive trough digs into the Ohio Valley and associated surface low continues to move eastward through Ontario toward Quebec. A secondary cold front drops southeast through the upper midwest and is forecast to travel through the Ohio Valley overnight into Tuesday morning, ushering in deep northwesterly flow and a colder Canadian air mass. After much collaboration with neighbors, have decided to keep the Freeze Warning in place for our southern counties overnight and have cancelled Freeze Watch for northern counties. Overnight lows in the south will likely drop to 30/31 degrees where partial cloud clearing may occur and 34/35 in the north where cloud cover is thicker. Given the cyclonic system and orientation of northwesterly flow pulling additional moisture off of the Great Lakes, have included the chance for pcpn overnight, particularly in northern counties that are closer in proximity to the low. Pcpn will primarily fall as light rain showers, however, cannot rule out some snow mixing in during morning hours. Surface temperatures should be above freezing, which will melt any frozen pcpn quickly. Strong CAA helps keep temperatures about 15 degrees below climatological norms for Tuesday, with highs only reaching the mid 40s during the day. As the upper level feature stalls and spins, the chance for precipitation persists....additionally, breezy conditions continue with gusts in the north up to 30 mph. CAA continues Tuesday night and overnight lows drop into the low 30s. The chance for showers lingers overnight into Wednesday as the system continues its slow meander east. Again, a rain snow mix is likely. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As low pressure exits slowly northeast on Wednesday, showers may linger across northern locations, with snow possibly mixing in Wednesday morning. Brisk winds are likely at all locations in the tight pressure gradient surrounding the low. A large area of high pressure building in behind the low should then provide dry weather conditions Thursday into Monday. The next frontal system may bring a chance of showers later on Monday. A warming trend will be observed as geopotential heights increase behind the low, while warm advection takes over near the surface on southwest flow developing around the high. A chilly start to the period calls for highs in the mid 40s to low 50s Wednesday, rising to the low and mid 50s Thursday, the 60s Friday, before reaching the 70s Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Lake effect rain/snow band will continue to affect northwest/western portions of our area through this evening so it will be tough to rule out a few showers at the western TAF sites. Will cover this threat with a VCSH. Otherwise, MVFR cigs will continue to spread south across our area through the overnight hours with MVFR cigs then persisting into the morning hours on Tuesday. MVFR cigs will gradually lift into VFR through the afternoon hours but in continued cyclonic flow, scattered showers will be heading into the afternoon hours. Will again cover this with a VCSH at the northern TAF sites. Westerly winds will remain gusty in the 20 to 25 mph range through much of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possible into Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ042-060>064- 070>074-077>082-088. KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CA NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...JGL
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
951 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 .Forecast Update... Issued at 951 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A significant lake effect precipitation event is ongoing across far southwest Michigan into northern Indiana. Two dominant bands are still evident with reports northwest of Fort Wayne of accumulation, and some tree limb damage due to heavy/wet snow weight on trees that still have foliage. There remains uncertainty on the details with the downstream end of these bands, but hi-res models do show a slightly westward shift with subtle veering flow. Therefore, north- central and northeast portions of the area will have the highest probabilities of precipitation tonight. The downstream extent of meaningful/measurable amounts is in question and will at least partially be a function of the bands` ability to consolidate. Nevertheless, the strongest mesoscale forcing and vertical theta-e differential will keep the heaviest rates to our north, tapering gradually south-southeastward. The thermal profile will be marginal for snow by traditional >0 wet bulb heights, though steep low-level lapse rates suggest a dominant snow precipitation type. Weaker echos across central Indiana recently have produced a couple of reports of light snow already. Transient east-west sloshing of mesoscale banding driven by subtle backing/veering of low-level winds, and relatively lighter precipitation rates should keep amounts light. In a reasonable worst case locally a couple inches may accumulate, primarily across north-central and northeast portions of central Indiana. Warm ground and pavement temperatures should preclude travel impacts. && .Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 301 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 ...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT... ...SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST... Remainder of the Afternoon... Isolated to scattered snow showers mixed with graupel have been reported over northeastern and east central parts of central Indiana late this morning and into the afternoon associated with cyclonic flow around a potent Great Lakes vortex and within an area of 7 plus degree C/km lapse rates and in left exit region of a 110 knot upper jet streak over southern Indiana. KIND Dual Pol and low freezing level from MIE sounding from the RAP both support mostly snow from these cells. That said, the cells were starting to weaken and were moving ESE toward the Ohio border. We may be able to drop PoPs for the rest of the afternoon if they are out of central Indiana in the next hour. Meanwhile, winds have been gusting to 25 to near 35 mph as advertised due to tight pressure gradient and deep mixing. Still some concern for wildfires over mainly southwestern locales through early evening, but so far the RH has remained above 30% as cloud cover and cold advection have keep temperatures in the 40s. Tonight... Look for the cellular clouds to dissipate by sunset but leading edge of a stratocumulus deck is already over northwestern parts of central Indiana and looks like it will reach the Interstate 70 corridor by early evening. This could hinder the expected freezing temperatures for areas insulated under it. That said, with strong cold advection, will keep the Freeze Warning going. Also of concern will be more rain and snow showers as an impressive lake effect event is setting up with strong moisture convergence and instability over Lake Michigan along with a long fetch associated with 850 millibar 50 knot jet max. Healthy NNW winds will steer these showers all into at least northern parts of central Indiana this evening and overnight with light accumulation possible. Would not rule out rain mixing in early, but snow looks much more likely with the sounding profile. With the grounds relatively warm, accumulation will be light and limited to grassy and elevated surfaces. Kept likely PoPs over Howard and Carroll counties with small chances along the I-70 corridor and dry far southwest. Tuesday... Low level winds will shift more to the WNW Tuesday which suggest lake effect showers will be confined to mainly far northeastern parts. Meanwhile, areas southwest of I-74 will see some sunshine being in closer proximity to Plains high pressure. Sounding profiles suggest any shower will be mostly snow early and then transition to snow during the afternoon as temperatures gradually rise to the middle 40s. && .Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 301 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 * Freezing temperatures expected over the next few nights, particularly Wednesday Night which could officially end growing season * Warming temperatures late week into the weekend An anomalously deep closed low will remain across the eastern Great Lakes Region before it steadily pulls north/northeastward Wednesday into late week. Light snow is possible across northeastern counties overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday as lake enhanced moisture pushes over the area. NW Flow should limit any precipitation to far northeastern counties. Surface temperatures will be well above freezing with no accumulations expected. Temperatures will remain below average through Thursday as NW flow prevails. Freezing temperatures are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday night. At this time, a freeze warning has not been issued for Tuesday night as guidance shows persistent overnight clouds over parts of the area. This leads to lower confidence for a widespread freeze and will hold off on a freeze warning for now. For the latter half of the work week and into the weekend, the upper low will slowly exit to the NE allowing for broad ridging to move in. Look for temperatures to steadily warm as S/SW flow increases. This may result in additional fire weather concerns late week and will need to be monitored. Highs will likely reach the 70s by Saturday. Expect mostly quiet weather with no significant upper level features moving through the region. A weak shortwave could move through late Saturday into Sunday, but no impacts other than increased cloud cover are anticipated. An upper trough will approach the region late Monday. Expect increasing rain chances as large scale ascent and moisture advection increases. Model disagreement leads to high uncertainty but chance POPs are reasonable at this time. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 729 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Impacts: *Winds from 300-320 degrees with gusts to 20-25 kts through at least 9z tonight...and only slightly lower into Tuesday morning *MVFR possible in scattered rain/snow showers 02z-08z at KLAF/KIND Discussion: Tight surface gradient will continue into Tuesday morning with central Indiana positioned between stacked low over Lake Huron and broad surface high pressure slowly arriving from south-central Canada. Fresh northwest winds with gusts to 20-25 knots will continue tonight before diminishing slightly after 9z. The fetch of BKN/OVC stratocumulus off of southern Lake Michigan should remain at mainly VFR decks. Several hours of isolated to scattered rain/snow showers through the middle of the overnight may bring MVFR CIGs at times to KIND/KLAF terminals. Blustery conditions are expected to continue Tuesday, with gusts increasing to 20-25 kts during 16z-00z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ Update...BRB Short Term...MK Long Term...Melo Aviation...AGM

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 The RAP and HRRR models indicate the swath of clouds across the Dakotas this afternoon will move due south through much of wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. The low temperature forecast tonight leans on the short term model blend plus 3 degrees for lows mostly in the 20s. This could still be too cold given the models show temperatures rising as the cloud cover thickens after midnight. This forecast is several degrees warmer than the guidance blend and close to the 75th percentile of the NBM. 1034mb high pressure across Manitoba this afternoon will move due south and be located across OK Wednesday morning. The ridge is very narrow east and west and this should present south and west winds across wrn Nebraska and calm winds across ncntl Nebraska Tuesday night. Temperatures aloft at h850mb will be warming aloft; close to 10C by Wednesday morning. The temperature forecast leans on the warmer short term model blend for lows in the 20s. This forecast is also several degrees warmer than the guidance blend and close to the 75th percentile of the NBM. There is little change in the temperature forecast Tuesday. The cold air advection is neutral and there is a chance the mid level cloudiness shown in the RAP model will affect the heating cycle. Highs in the 40s and 50s are in place with generally clear skies. This is close to the NBM 50th, slightly warmer than the guidance blend, but not as warm as the RAP or HRRR models. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 The ECM and GFS continue to advertise a fairly deep trof moving through the northern states this weekend and then into the nrn Plains and srn Canada Monday. This would result in a strong Pacific cold front sweeping into Nebraska Sunday. Today`s runs are a bit slower with this front, so temperatures in the 70s are predicted Wednesday through Saturday with a split between 60s across wrn Nebraska and 70s across cntl Nebraska Sunday. It is noteworthy the GFS and ECM deepen the storm to 974-981mb across Manitoba-wrn Ontario Monday and this could lead to a period of strong west winds across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. High wind criteria would appear to be more likely across the Dakotas. POPs get a boost to 30-40 percent Sunday. This is probably warranted given the caliber of the moisture return and height falls as the upper low tilts northeast through the nrn Plains. The best moisture advection will be well to the east, across the Midwest, and our rain chances are a result of moisture carried across the nrn Rockies with the Pacific front. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 VFR conditions expected to prevail through tomorrow evening. Mid- level clouds filter into the area through early tomorrow afternoon, though CIGs remain well into VFR. Winds remain light from the north, primarily below 10kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Brown
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
956 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 .Forecast Update... Issued at 956 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 A chilly, breezy night continues across the middle Ohio Valley. Kentucky Mesonet is showing temperatures already down into the middle/upper 30s in many spots with dew points in the low/mid 20s. The air temps are around a degree colder than what the going forecast is showing, however with incoming clouds will refrain from lowering MaxT. Temperatures upstream under the overcast are only a few degrees cooler than what we are seeing down here to the south. Latest guidance still supports lows generally in the upper 20s and lower 30s for most. The cloud shield to our north is quite expansive from the Great Lakes all the way west to the Mississippi and south to the Ohio. Did go ahead and increase cloud cover slightly for the next several hours. Impressive streamers are coming off of Lake Michigan (there was a recent public report of nearly 4" of snow in Whitley County, Indiana) with radar showing reflectivities making it as far south as the Kentucky side of the Cincinnati Metro. There have been a few mPING reports of flurries with the reflectivities across southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio. IND and ILN have received reports of frozen precipitation, sometimes mixed with liquid, in these areas with temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. So, it still looks good for getting a few flurries tonight, especially from southeast Indiana into the Kentucky Bluegrass region. The HRRR has a decent handle on this and gives the best flurry chances between 2am and 8am EDT. && .Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 ...First Widespread Freeze of the Season Tonight... ...Scattered Snow Flurries Early Tuesday Morning... Large anomalous upper low spinning around the Great Lakes region today will not move much during the short-term period. Short wave troughs spinning around that system will send waves of cloud cover across our area, one in southern IN and northern KY this hour and then a deeper moisture field coming in later tonight. Forecast soundings from the hi-res models indicate the top of that layer into the dendritic growth zone, so ice crystal formation is likely. The question will be if and how much of those crystals survive to the surface. There will be some dry air near the surface to overcome...and those soundings as well as rh fields in time height sections are not showing much near the surface. Thus will continue the ongoing forecast for scattered non-impactful snow flurries early in the morning hours. The temperature forecast for tonight will hinge quite a bit on the cloud cover overnight. Cold air advection with steady northwest winds will continue through the night, but the thicker cloud cover will act as a blanket, possibly preventing those areas from hitting freeze warning criteria, 30 degrees or less for 2 hours or more. Current forecast for lows is right in the middle of the model guidance envelope. Those models indicate our northeastern counties having the LEAST chance of reaching that criteria...along and north of a line from Shepherdsville east to the Lexington area. Given that forecast lows in that region are right around freezing, will not pull the ongoing Freeze Warning at this point...but wouldn`t be surprised if we have to issue a second headline across portions of the Louisville forecast area for freezing conditions Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Points west of Louisville and south of that Shepherdsville to Lexington line should end up getting cold enough to stop headlines for the rest of the fall and winter seasons...but we can make that decision tomorrow. Cold air advection will continue with breezy conditions from the northwest Tuesday, as again, that persistent and slow-moving upper low continues to our northwest. Expect highs Tuesday some 20 degrees below climatology. .Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 ...NEAR RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING... ...CONTINUED DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK... ...NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK... ==================================== Synoptic Overview ==================================== Very anomalous upper level low over the Great Lakes is forecast to spin slowly across the Great Lakes early in the period. By mid-late week, the upper low is forecast to lift northward into Quebec and into an open wave. Deep cyclonic flow will remain in place across the Ohio Valley through Thursday with the flow becoming a bit more zonal by Friday. Dry and warmer conditions are expected through the weekend as the flow across the CONUS becomes more progressive. The next shortwave trough axis may impact the region by Monday bringing a chance of much need precipitation to the area. ==================================== Meteorological Discussion ==================================== A highly amplified upper level pattern will be in place at the start of the period (Tuesday night) with a large closed upper low over western Ontario and a sharp trough axis extending southward through the Ohio Valley. The pressure gradient looks to be a bit more relaxed Tuesday night which may result in more optimal radiational cooling. However, there is a chance that some stubborn low-level stratus may remain in place across our far northeastern areas. We did consider a Freeze Warning for Tuesday night, but the surrounding office consensus was to hold off for now and see how tonight`s freeze warning pans out. The expected lows Tuesday night will be near record lows for October 19th. Sunny and dry conditions are expected for Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 50s. Lows will likely drop back into the mid-upper 20s Thursday morning which also may tie/break record lows for October 20th. Highs on Thursday will be a bit warmer with readings in the upper 50s to the near 60. For Friday and into the weekend, the upper level low is forecast to lift northward and become an open wave as it moves northward into Quebec. The persistent trough axis through the Ohio Valley is forecast to exit to the east and the flow across our area will become more zonal and progressive through the weekend. Dry weather is expected with a continued moderation in temperatures. Highs on Friday will warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s with lower to mid 70s for Saturday and Sunday. Moving into next week, a shortwave trough axis is forecast to move toward the Ohio Valley. Signal analysis over the last week has been doing fairly well at tracking this feature. The front associated with this feature may bring a welcome chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region as it passes through. For now, plan on at least carrying a 30 PoP in that period. Highs Monday will continue to be mild with low-mid 70s expected. ==================================== Societal Impacts ==================================== Cold overnight temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday morning. The overnight forecast lows will be near record readings for those dates. Continued dry weather and dry ground fuels will lead to a continued elevated fire weather risk across the region. ==================================== Forecast Confidence ==================================== Forecast confidence on temperatures is medium to high, while forecast confidence on precipitation is high. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 714 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 MAIN IMPACT: Gusty winds Tuesday. MVFR stratus and brief flurries 06- 12Z Tuesday for LEX and possibly SDF. DISCUSSION: A large upper low centered over the Great Lakes but affecting most of the eastern half of the United States will be the dominant weather feature during this TAF period. Large shield of stratocu spiraling around the low will affect the terminals, and will likely bring MVFR ceilings to LEX late tonight into early Tuesday morning. SDF looks to be right on the edge of the sub-VFR clouds. With a tight gradient between the surface low to our north and high pressure along the length of the Great Plains we can expect a gusty WNW breeze tomorrow, to around 20-25kt. CONFIDENCE: Moderate to high in MVFR ceiling potential for LEX early Tuesday...lower for MVFR ceiling at SDF. High confidence in winds. && .Climate... Updated at 300 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 ================== Near-Record Low Temperatures ================== Tuesday Wednesday (Fcst/Record) (Fcst/Record) Louisville: 36/25 (1948) 35/30 (1948) Bowling Green: 31/27 (1948) 29/28 (1903) Lexington: 32/24 (1948) 31/26 (1992) Frankfort: 32/25 (1988) 30/27 (1992) && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ Update...13 Short Term...RJS Long Term...MJ Aviation...13 Climate...RJS/MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1004 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for Porter and Jasper counties in northwest Indiana overnight, as best focus for any travel impacts from accumulating lake effect snow looks to remain east of the forecast area. Otherwise, forecast is generally on track with light snow showers and flurries generally decreasing in coverage late this evening west and southwest of Lake Michigan. Regional radar coverage since mid-afternoon has depicted the primary lake convergent axis along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan, with associated heavier lake effect precipitation focused mainly across far southwest lower Michigan and north central Indiana. High-res CAM guidance indicates this trend will continue over the next several hours, with the probability of travel impacts associated with any accumulating snow over Porter and Jasper counties continuing to diminish. Based on this, and being past the evening heavier travel period, have elected to cancel the winter weather advisory for those counties. Less organized rain/snow showers will likely affect northwest Indiana into the overnight hours, though with no significant accumulations expected. Elsewhere, scattered snow showers which were associated with an earlier mid-level short wave have diminished/dissipated across northern IL and parts of the IL/IN state line region. A few flurries may linger at times into the overnight hours. Blustery northwest winds will persist with gusts of 25 to 30 mph at times, and up to 40 mph along the immediate Indiana lakeshore. With strong northerly winds persisting, have made no changes to current Lakeshore Flood Advisory which continues through Tuesday. Updated products available. Ratzer && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Through Tuesday... The primary forecast messages through Tuesday are: * Continued well below normal temperatures in blustery conditions, with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph, and near the Indiana lake shore of 45 to 50 mph * Flurries with spotty snow showers through this evening, with focus turning to downstream areas in northwest Indiana of Lake Michigan by mid-evening; still high uncertainty whether there will be snow accumulation of impact and the potential for that has diminished since early this morning -- if trend continues the Winter Weather Advisory will be cancelled early * Minor lakeshore flooding along the northwest Indiana shore through Tuesday; possible some minor lakeshore flooding or at least spray on parts of the Cook County shore The substantial long wave trough across eastern North America is well defined today, with a broad but very well-defined closed circulation center over the Great Lakes. The 500 mb temperatures with this center are around -35C, which are at record cold for October using GRB sounding climatology. Numerous vorticity maxima within this upper trough have provided isolated pockets of ascent and deeper saturation for showers, which have been primarily snow showers in our forecast area. Some of these have produced brief "snow globe" behavior with ~1 SM visibility underneath them, including even in the far western forecast area (near Rock Falls and Rochelle). The next wave for northern Illinois is less-defined and a little more sheared than its predecessor, and this will swing southward from Wisconsin by early to mid evening. This is forecast to increase snow shower chances, including for Chicago. Due to limited saturation depth above -10C per aircraft soundings, and overall limited low-level focus to drive stronger shower updrafts, the quality of the snow with any of these showers should not be great in northern Illinois. Also the quick forward progression should be enough to limit any accumulations. Flurries and snow showers should taper from northwest to southeast across northern Illinois during the later evening. For northwest Indiana (downstream of the lake), disorganized lake effect snow showers look to be the primary mode, apart from a window of time mid-evening into early overnight when a more concentrated, mesoscale-influenced focus could set up. This potential though is lessening as convergence is presently along the Michigan shore per observations -- that`s quite possibly too far east for a focus in our CWA. This is forecast by CAMs to wobble some, including slightly westward, with growing instability of lake-induced CAPE > 800 to as much as ~1,500 J/kg along the Porter County shore (modifying forecast soundings for lake temps and current dew points over the water). The next mid-level wave over northern lower Michigan does look to sharpen the convergence over eastern Lake Michigan through the evening, but whether or not a well-defined wave such as multiple earlier runs of the HRRR showed, is uncertain. If so, it would support brief periods of heavier snow showers. But if trends continue as such for another few hours, the evening shift likely will be able to cancel this impact-based Advisory early. As for winds and waves...the surface low depth is down to 997 mb over Lake Huron and will continue to gradually deepen through tonight before holding steady on Tuesday, and all at the same time with little movement. The locked-in cyclonic flow pattern will support continued cold air advection mixing and a pressure gradient that will keep gustiness tonight through Tuesday. Over the lake, there have been marine platform observations of 45 to 50 mph (50 at St. Joseph, Michigan), so the going Wind Advisory for lakeside Indiana areas looks good. Did extend it some during the day tomorrow and may need to go through the entire afternoon. The building waves from these winds have already been up to 9.5 feet at Michigan City, IN, and per wave model guidance utilizing forecast winds, these should get solidly be into the 10 to 15 ft area, especially for Porter County, tonight and Tuesday. Otherwise, clouds should show some thinning in western parts of the CWA late this evening, though how quickly is of low confidence. The thicker the clouds, the more the temperatures may hold up. Still expecting most of northern Illinois apart from downtown Chicago to drop to freezing or below. Do note that we at NWS Chicago have collaboratively ended our growing season products as of today, so no more Frost/Freeze headlines will be issued this autumn. Tuesday`s precipitation focus will be Porter County, Indiana and eastward, with lake effect showers or flurries of a disorganized nature probable to continue. These should be light enough for little to no snow accumulation due to a lack of strong convergence and associated deeper updrafts. Inland, stratocumulus clouds are expected, and cannot rule out sprinkles with these. MTF && .LONG TERM... Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Tuesday night through Sunday... Main weather features of interest are: - Upper Low and associated trof continue to spin across eastern Canada, holding the colder temperatures in place through mid-week. - Low ejects out of the area during second half of week, bringing a return to warmer temperatures to end the week through the weekend. - Zonal flow arrives Friday, ridging into the weekend, when temperatures are forecast to climb back to the 60s and 70s. - Next chance for precip arrives to end the weekend, as another Low pressure system and trof takes hold over the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Precip chances will be coming to an end Tuesday night across northwestern Indiana as the sfc Low lifts slowly ENE through the eastern Great Lakes into Canada. Temperatures moderate into mid- week, as a weak zonal flow system sets up. As the upper Low ejects out of the Great Lakes Thursday, southwesterly winds return across the central Plains into the Midwest to end the work week. A ridge of High pressure dominates the weather pattern Friday through much of the weekend, where southerly winds bring another rise in temperatures back to the 60s and low 70s. Ahead of the next weather producing system, southerly winds ramp up Sunday with models bringing 20-30mph gusts. Another Low pressure system tracks through the northern Plains late Sunday into Monday, swinging a trailing frontal boundary through the area...bringing the next chance of rainfall to the region. SB && .CLIMATE... Last updated at 315 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Here are the current records in place for today and Tuesday. Note Chicago (O`Hare) has reached at least 41 so today will not be a record. October 17 October 18 Record Cold Record Low Record Cold Record Low Maximum Maximum Chicago 40 (1880) 26 (1948) 38 (1930) 20 (1948) Rockford 44 (2002) 24 (1992) 41 (1972) 19 (1952) && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Forecast concerns for the terminals... *Gusty northwest winds persisting through Tuesday evening *Occasional MVFR clouds this evening through Tuesday morning *Chance for lake effect showers at GYY this evening A deep upper-level trough continues to reside over the Great Lakes region which is helping to maintain the gusty northwest winds currently being observed across the area. Winds are expected to ease a tad late this evening, but gusts will still remain in the upper 20 to around 30 kt range through Tuesday evening. As the trough begins to move east Tuesday evening gusts are expected to ease to around 20 kts overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. In addition to the winds, there will also be a chance for a few flurries across northeastern Illinois this evening with more robust lake effect showers in northwest Indiana. Aircraft and forecast soundings have continued to show that the snow growth region has struggled to saturate which has limited more robust snow showers developing as previously forecast. However, there has been just enough moisture in the snow growth region to promote occasional flurries as noted in recent radar and observational trends therefore I have maintained the VCSH mention at the Illinois sites to account for this potential. These flurries are expected to come to an end this late this evening as drier air filters in aloft. More robust lake effect showers have continued to be observed across northwestern Indiana and the open waters of Lake Michigan where soundings have shown much better saturation in the snow growth region. While most sites along the immediate lake shore have reported more of a rain-snow mix the thinking is that most areas should transition over to all snow as surface temperatures cool this evening. For that reason I have continued the TEMPO for -SHSN at GYY to account for this potential through late evening. Lastly, there is also the possibility for occasional MVFR ceilings through Tuesday morning especially in areas that experience any showers. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with ceilings gradually scattering out Tuesday evening. Yack && .MARINE... Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Northwest gales are expected through Tuesday. The strongest gales to 40 knots (briefly to 45 knots in the Indiana nearshore) are expected this evening as a trough shifts across Lake Michigan. Winds will only slowly diminish through the day Tuesday, with some gale gusts to 35 knots remaining possible into Tuesday evening. Kluber && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Lakeshore Flood Advisory...INZ001 until 10 PM Tuesday. Wind Advisory...INZ001-INZ002 until 1 PM Tuesday. Lakeshore Flood Advisory...INZ002 until 4 AM Wednesday. LM...Gale Warning...nearshore waters until 10 PM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
754 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 410 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2022 ...Heavy wet snow will continue into Tuesday over the higher terrain, especially north central... Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis continue to show an amplified pattern across N America. Strong ridges over western N America and also the N Atlantic, extending across Greenland, are locking in a deepening trof from the Canadian Arctic across Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes region. 130+ kt upper jet axis extending s fm Manitoba/NW Ontario into MN and associated shortwave are currently working to amplify the trof, and have closed off a fairly stacked mid-level low over Lake Huron today. Cyclonic northerly flow, CAA and weak forcing around the closed low are combining to support lake enhanced snow showers into mainly the north central UP this afternoon. Q-vector divergence and associated subsidence has worked to taper off the lake effect snow over the western counties so have allowed the warnings to expire over Gogebic and Ontonagon counties and the warning and advisory will be allowed to expire over Northern Houghton and Keweenaw counties respectively by early evening. Will keep WSW and Lakeshore Flood headlines going for central and eastern counties of the cwa tonight into Tuesday as models show continued strong cyclonic northerly flow and continued enhancement potential as another shortwave is fcst to rotate back around the closed low and into the eastern half of the cwa late tonight into Tuesday. With ptype already changed over to mostly snow in Baraga and Marquette counties away from Lake Superior, I`m fairly confident in snow piling up over the higher terrain tonight into early Tuesday. Generally have anywhere from 4 to 10 inches over the higher terrain with more than a foot of additional snow possible from the Michigamme Highlands into the Huron Mountains. Will keep winter weather advisories going into Iron County this evening and into Dickinson County overnight although most additional snow accumulation will be confined to the far northern portions of these counties. In the eastern counties, ultimately decided to upgrade the watch to an winter weather advisory tonight into Tuesday since warmer air initially off Lake Superior will cut into the snow amounts so basicaly have amounts anywhere from 1 to locally 5-6 inches, highest over western Alger and northwest Delta counties. Also, northerly winds will likely gust to advisory criteria (45-50 mph) or higher at times so incorporated this wording into the WSW advisory statement. Lakeshore flood advisories and warnings will be continued into Tuesday and Tuesday evening as winds increasing from high-end gales to Storms will continue to build pounding waves near the lakeshore areas. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 310 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2022 Upper air pattern will consist of a closed 500 mb low over the lower Great Lakes 00z Wed with a ridge in the western U.S. The closed low meanders over the lower Great Lakes and then moves to western Quebec by 00z Fri while the ridge in the western U.S. weakens and retrogrades back to the west. With the storm system off to the east of the area, lake enhanced pcpn will slowly move out and will switch over to pure lake effect pcpn. Did put in some pops into the forecast for the west and north due to lake effect possibilities as models looked to be too dry with north winds continuing across the warm waters of Lake Superior and continued them through Wed night. This was the main change to the going forecast. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough on the east coast with a trough in the upper Great Lakes and one off the sw CA coast 12z Fri. Another trough moves into the Pacific NW 12z Sat which moves into the Rockies 12z Sun and into the upper Great Lakes 12z Mon. Temperatures go above normal for this forecast period and will be warm enough that the pcpn will be rain. Could be windy late this weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 754 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2022 Poor flying conditions will continue through this TAF period as snow showers persist along with lake enhancement behind the closed low. So, this means MVFR conditions with periods of IFR at times for all TAF sites. In addition, the strong northwest winds will continue to be an impact with sustained speeds in the 23 to 26 kt range, gusting to 40 kts at KCMX and KSAW. At KIWD, winds will be just a bit lighter with sustained speeds in the 12 to 14 kt range and gusts to 25 kts. In addition, LLWS will impact KSAW tonight through tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 50 kts under 2000 feet. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 310 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2022 Strong autumn storm will continue to bring strong north gales of 45 knots and storm force winds to 55 knots to Lake Superior into Tue evening before the wind diminishes below gales. The wind gets below 20 knots by Thu morning and then increases to 20 to 25 knots on Fri from the sw. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for MIZ001. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ001. Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for MIZ002-003. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ003. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MIZ004-005. Lakeshore Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MIZ006-007- 085. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ010. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ011. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for MIZ013-014. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ162. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ240>242-246-247-263. Storm Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ243>245-248-264-265. Gale Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ243>245-248-264-265. Storm Warning until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ249>251-266-267. Gale Warning from 4 PM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ249>251-266-267. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ221-248-250. Storm Warning from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...07