Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/12/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
716 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 .UPDATE... Satellite imagery shows northerly flow aloft and mostly clear skies in our forecast area this evening (just lingering mid clouds in our east). Upstream, there is a weak shortwave dropping thru Alberta and a few light showers north of Calgary. This energy will clip eastern MT later tonight and should bring isolated light showers to our east after midnight into Wednesday morning. Once the wave passes we will see gusty NW winds develop, especially east of Rosebud County. Forecast is in good shape. Have made a few minor adjustments to sky cover, pops/wx and winds. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday Night... A few showers popped up this afternoon over central parts of the area due to vorticity in the upper trough moving through the area. Another lobe of vorticity will swing S tonight in the western edge of the trough, accompanied by some frontogenesis, and a small chance of showers. The HRRR and some of the synoptic deterministic models caught onto these features and had some showers in the E late tonight through Wednesday morning. Thus have included these PoPs in the forecast. It will remain breezy over portions of the area overnight due to strong NW flow aloft. Expect winds to pick up again Wed. afternoon, especially in the E around KBHK and Ekalaka, as the NAEFS showed 50-60 kt at 700 mb with around 40 kt at 850 mb. Soundings showed good mixing down of the winds. Expect gusts in the 40s in places like KMLS and Broadus, with gusts near 50 mph in KBHK and Ekalaka. The winds in the E will become lighter Wed. night but will remain gusty. More gusty winds were on tap for the E on Thursday, but will not be as strong as Wednesday`s winds. Otherwise, Thu. will be dry. Temps will be a few degrees below normal on Wed. and RH`s will be high enough to preclude a fire weather highlight. A warmer day is expected on Thursday. Arthur Friday through Tuesday... Broad upper ridge look sto sit over much of the Pacific Northwest, keeping us under northwest flow and keeping conditions benign. Winds in the far southeast will continue to gust 35-45 mph Friday afternoon as 700 mb winds flirt with 50kt speeds (though 850 mb winds only reach ~35 kts). About 40% of ensemble members put us in cyclonic flow on Saturday from the dynamic upper low that`ll move south into the Great Lakes region, with us possibly catching just enough of the edge of it to bring a small chance for light rain to the lower elevations, and light snow to the mountains. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near to just above normal fo the weekend into next week. Vertz && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours under northerly flow aloft, though there will be some 5-8kft agl ceilings from KBIL eastward later tonight and Wednesday. Expect mostly light winds tonight, then gusty NW winds tomorrow especially in the east. Gusts of 30-45 knots will impact areas from KMLS-K00F eastward. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 042/060 039/066 043/072 047/063 040/062 038/066 040/067 00/B 00/U 00/U 22/W 10/U 00/U 00/U LVM 041/067 036/070 039/071 041/063 034/065 036/069 036/070 00/N 00/U 00/U 11/B 00/U 00/U 00/U HDN 039/060 035/065 039/074 045/063 036/063 034/067 035/068 11/B 00/U 00/U 22/W 10/U 00/U 00/U MLS 042/057 038/059 040/069 045/060 036/057 033/060 035/064 21/N 00/U 00/B 11/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 040/055 038/058 041/069 046/060 036/058 033/062 035/065 12/W 00/U 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U BHK 039/054 035/055 038/064 041/057 032/053 029/056 031/061 21/N 00/N 00/N 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U SHR 037/057 038/063 039/071 043/061 035/062 035/066 036/068 00/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 10/U 00/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1008 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 .Synopsis... High pressure extending from the mid-Atlantic will persist overnight. A potent cold front will enter the western Great Lakes Wednesday morning and sweep across the region Wednesday night. Low pressure will meander just north of the Great Lakes through the end of the week with a second cold front crossing the region Friday. && .Near Term... /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... First round of rain is lifting north of the area in the Toledo vicinity. Expecting showers to gradually move east across the area over the next 24 hours. No major changes with this update expected at this time. Previous discussion... High pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic extends westward into the local region. Warm temperatures will continue into tonight though mid-level cloud cover increases from the west. Deep upper-level trough digs into the Great Lakes region tonight into tomorrow. A cold front, extending southward from a low in northern Ontario, will move east across the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow as well, located near Lake Michigan by tomorrow afternoon. During the daytime hours tomorrow, cloudiness, isolated rain showers, and gusty southerly winds is expected. Considerable lift associated with this trough will result in the development of line of shower and embedded isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of this cold front. Current expectation is for this line to move eastward across the area tomorrow evening through the overnight hours, though its possible isolated convection develops ahead of this Wednesday afternoon. During the daytime, cloudiness inhibits the development of instability. However, despite this, strong advection of warm, moist air into the region may allow for marginal instability to build up, with models such as the RAP and NAM forecasting MUCAPE upwards of 750 J/kg by around 00Z Thu. Moderate deep layer shear of 40-45 kts and strong low-level flow (40-50 kts at 850mb) would support strong to severe level winds with convection, if enough instability is able to build in. Will have to watch for cloud breaks tomorrow, which may allow for daytime heating, and resulting buildup of instability. Given the strong wind field aloft, it shouldn`t take too much instability to allow for severe gusts with thunderstorms. Strong low-level shear (30-40 kts 0-1km shear and moderate 0-1 m^2/s^2 SRH) could potentially support an isolated tornado, though the threat level is low. Low instability should limit hail threat, and high storm motion of showers and storms should also limit flash flooding. && .Short Term... /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper-level trough will pivot east across the CWA Thursday as a broad upper low churns over the Upper Midwest and Ontario. Although the surface cold front will exit the eastern fringes of the area at the start of the period, additional troughs/shortwaves will pivot across the Great Lakes throughout the short term period. Expect temps to cool aloft and can`t rule out some scattered lake- enhanced showers Thursday, but moisture may be limited and southwesterly flow may focus any precipitation into western New York. Drier air infiltrates the region Friday and anticipate a lull in precip and decrease in cloud cover Friday and Friday night. Much cooler temps arrive late this week with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday and the mid to upper 50s Friday. Overnight lows fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s Thursday and Friday night. && .Long Term... /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper-level low will anchor to the northwest of the region through the long term period, with a series of troughs and surface cold fronts moving across the local area this weekend into early next week. This will lead to several rounds of scattered lake- enhanced showers with gradually declining temperatures. In fact, it may get so cold that rain may mix with and/or transition to snow late Monday night into early Tuesday. Highs in the 60s Saturday will fall to the 40s by Tuesday, with overnight lows near or below freezing Sunday and Monday night. && .Aviation... /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain is expected to gradually move east across the area during the next 24 hours. Expecting mostly VFR conditions across the area until the latter portions of the forecast period. Ceilings will lower slightly as the cold front approaches from the west. Best chance of IFR/MVFR ceilings will arrive with the cold front during the last 6 hours of the CLE forecast period. Otherwise, mainly VFR expected across the area. Outlook...Non-VFR likely with a line of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night. Non-VFR possible with scattered rain showers Thursday through Friday for northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Non-VFR possible again with scattered rain showers Saturday through Sunday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots will persist through this evening, before becoming more southerly and increasing to near 20 knots tonight. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed during the day Wednesday and perhaps Wednesday night as a cold front moves east across the lake and flow shifts to the west. Expect generally southwest to westerly flow 15 to 20 knots through Sunday, which may result in periodic marine headlines. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy/Saunders NEAR TERM...Saunders SHORT TERM...Maines LONG TERM....Maines AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Maines
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
621 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Summary: A strong cold front and upper trough will move through the region tonight causing showers and thunderstorms to develop. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening, mainly after 7 pm into the early morning hours. Much cooler air will then move in for Wednesday into the weekend. There will be periodic chances for showers, both rain and snow. A cold front extended from a low in Manitoba south through the eastern Dakotas as of early afternoon. A warm frontal boundary extended through western and southern Minnesota. Forecast RAP soundings show a cap in place with plenty of MLCIN present. The Northland was dry and it will take some time for showers/storms to develop. We followed the CAM guidance and RAP soundings which indicate it will be around 00Z before showers/storms develop across the Northland. The front will just be entering our western CWA around 00Z with a low level jet ahead of it. We increase POPs through the evening but confine thunderstorms to the eastern half. MUCAPE values will rise to 1000-1500 J/kg with MLCAPE values a bit lower. Adequate shear will be in place and 700-500 lapse rates of 7- 8 C/KM are expected. Given the storms are developing this evening, soundings show the near surface layer becoming more stable so the storms may be or become elevated. There will be a severe threat over eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with the main threats hail around the size of quarters and damaging wind to 60 mph. Deep mean layer winds are more parallel to the frontal boundary and we expect initial storms will develop into a line or line segments with time. The main time period for a severe storms will be after 7 pm into the early morning hours. Colder air will move in Wednesday into Wednesday night and continue into the weekend. An upper low will remain near the region and send several shortwaves through the area keeping chances for showers going and keeping temperatures below normal for the remainder of the week. Precipitation chances will be highest over northern Minnesota. Snow showers will develop Wednesday night and continue into the weekend, especially during the overnight and morning hours. For now, we only have light snow accumulation through Friday, around an inch or less. However, a stronger shortwave on Friday could cause higher precipitation amounts than currently forecast and we`ll keep a close watch during that time. There may also be some light snow accumulation along the snowbelt of the South Shore. However, the low level fetch is more west of north than what`s ideal for lake effect there through Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 VFR with a strong cold front crossing tonight. LLWS abounds with gusty southerly surface winds. Eventually, a line of convection is supposed to unzip around 01-03Z. Models generally have this solution, but the intensity varies widely amongst guidance. For now kept VFR, but will tempo in IFR as needed. Break in the shower activity Wednesday morning before more showers return Wed afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Strong southerly winds have developed over the South Shore this afternoon with winds east/northeast along the North Shore. The wind is expected to become southerly along the North Shore this evening. Gusts around 30 knots will be common along the South Shore, especially closer to shore with some gales possible as well. We`ll monitor conditions as it is possible a short Gale Warning may be needed for portions of the South Shore through this evening. A cold front will move through the region tonight causing winds to veer to west/northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as well this evening ahead of the front with showers continuing behind. A few strong to severe storms will be possible with hail the size of quarters and wind gusts in excess of 40 knots possible. We did increase winds for Wednesday into Wednesday night and extended the the Small Craft Advisories for the South Shore. It`s possible a Small Craft Advisory may need to be extended along the North Shore as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 46 54 33 44 / 40 50 30 30 INL 44 50 31 41 / 20 60 70 70 BRD 44 53 33 43 / 30 40 10 10 HYR 46 56 34 44 / 60 60 40 40 ASX 49 57 36 47 / 60 60 40 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-145-148. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140>144. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ146-147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Melde AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
748 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Scattered to widespread rain showers, and even some rumbles of thunder, were observed across most of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri early this afternoon. This activity was being driven out ahead of a trough centered over the eastern Rockies, with several shortwaves out ahead of it in the central Plains and Midwest. WAA was rather robust as well with the DVN 12z sounding hinting at a 25-30 kt LLJ, with a stronger near 40 kt jet at SGF. Surface dewpoints were in the upper 50s to early 60s across the area, with temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 [Key Messages] 1) Turning windy this evening and overnight with gusts around 40-45 MPH possible 2) Low risk of severe thunderstorms with main hazards being large hail and damaging winds 3) Cold front arrives midday Wednesday with cooling temperatures, gusty winds and scattered rain showers [Discussion] Concerns in the short term range from very windy conditions to potential for severe weather tonight. Trough situated over the northern Plains into the central Plains will continue to slowly advance eastward over the next 24 hours. Low pressure is progged to develop just north of North Dakota this afternoon with a rather robust deepening this evening, leading to a tight pressure gradient between it and high pressure over the eastern U.S.. Winds are expected to strengthen in the low-levels with some synoptic guidance depicting a LLJ of around 50-60 kts across the Midwest! The question then turns to just how much this translates to the surface and how windy it could get this evening and overnight. Unfortunately, as was the case in the 00z guidance, there is no substantial agreement. CAMs ranging from the ARW, NMM and NAMnest are the most robust in terms of wind gusts, with values near to right around advisory criteria. These models favor a more robust LLJ with a shallow inversion. Meanwhile, more synoptic guidance including the GFS, ECMWF and CAMs such as the HRRR and RAP are lower on the gusts with more difficulty in getting past the inversion and lower level stability. These kinds of situations are tricky to forecast, and climatology for a similar wind setup is generally not in our favor (unlike a northwesterly wind setup with more robust low- level mixing). Where this could come easily into play, however, are areas that see rain showers and storms tonight, as momentum transfer in these environments promote more low-level mixing. This is the solution the HRRR is favoring, which I`m beginning to lean more towards given the low-level stability at play. Speaking of precip, expect this first round of rain showers to exit the area from west to east this evening with the shortwave responsible moving into central Illinois. Attention then turns to later this evening and overnight as the cold front begins to approach the area in tandem with more robust lift with a vort max and strong LLJ. Expecting a renewed round of showers, and some scattered storms, just ahead of the front beginning around 100 AM and continuing through mid-morning Wednesday. The strengthening LLJ will help steepen mid-level lapse rates to around 7-8C/km, allowing for decent updrafts that root themselves just above the inversion. Should this occur, the potential is there for storms to produce hail and damaging wind gusts. However, this is under the condition that storms break the low-level stability, hence the lower end risk. All of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri remains in a Level 1 (marginal) risk of severe thunderstorms. Heading into Wednesday, the majority of precipitation will exit the area to the east by midday as the cold front moves through the area. Isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible for areas along and north of Hwy 30 during the afternoon, but expecting most to remain dry with clearing skies. Winds will turn to the northwest and will subside somewhat, but it will remain gusty with values around 25-35 MPH during the afternoon. Highs will only get into the mid to upper 60s, with some sites in eastern Iowa cooling during the afternoon after the frontal passage. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Wednesday night into Thursday...Cyclonic northwest flow behind/west of long wave upper trof axis will continue to produce blustery cooling conditions Wed evening, as well as a low chance for some spotty sprinkles or light showers in the wrap around. Then clearing with some decrease in sfc winds into Thu morning with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Cyclonic flow and cool advection to crank the winds back up to a blustery 15 to 25 MPH on Thu, with a low chance for some isolated to sctrd instability showers/sprinkles popping up acrs far northeast IA,SW WI into northwest IL. The gusty winds and low RH/dried down sfc DPTs could make for an elevated fire danger Thu afternoon despite the cool temps, especially in cured crop fields. Sfc wind decouple and clear out again could lead to a freezing night Thu night into Friday morning with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Friday through Sunday...Cool core large upper low complex over the northern GRT LKS will moderate some thru Sunday, but still maintain the blocked pattern as it ingests additional vort spokes from the northwestern Hudson Bay region. As these features rotate thru, there will be temporary undulations of southwest flow boundary layer warming, to northwesterly flow cooling day to day, with deterministic medium range solutions varying from each other still at this time. Will continue ensemble temp blend of 50s to low 60s depending on the day, with lows in the 30s to low 40s. Will also go mainly dry, but more signs of along and post-frontally forced showers or light rain bands skirting down acrs the area Friday night into Sat morning. Re-enforcing cold dump under long wave amplification may make for lows in the 20s to low 30s by Monday morning. Monday and Tuesday...Longer range progs and trends on ensemble members suggest reformation of cold core upper level cyclone in deep trof base over the GRT LKS this period, with negative H85 mb temp(C) gradient along and east of the DVN CWA. Mainly dry and unseasonably cool/well below normal, with longer range thermal profiles suggesting highs in the 40s to low 50s and lows in the lower 30s to well down in the 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 A mix of VFR to IFR flight conditions were observed early this evening in the wake of a cluster of rain showers that moved through the region. Eventually, a cold front will sweep through the region late tonight into Wednesday morning, which should spark off some additional showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. MVFR visibility reductions and ceilings will be possible with this activity. Before the front moves in, expect a period of low-level wind shear, thanks to a rather strong southwesterly 40 to 50+ knot low-level jet developing. LLWS should impact all TAF terminals before diminishing as the front passes through. Winds will shift more northwesterly behind the front, and strengthen during the day Wednesday, with gusts between 20 to 30 knots by the afternoon hours. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speck SHORT TERM...Speck LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...Schultz
National Weather Service Hastings NE
951 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 ...FIRE WEATHER UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 -- A quick note regarding Fire Weather headlines: - Allowed today`s Red Flag Warning to expire "on time" as of 9 pm. - Will defer to incoming night shift forecaster to make any upgrade decisions regarding the CWA-wide Fire Weather Watch that day shift issued for both Wed and Thurs afternoons. UPDATE Issued at 816 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 -- Some comments regarding the very short term forecast through these next 3-6 hours or so: - Will fully admit that thunderstorms (at least one strong with pea to slightly larger hail verified in Kearney) have fired up 1) a bit sooner and 2) a bit farther west than earlier anticipated. - As a result, have recently published a fairly substantial update mainly to rain/storm chances (PoPs) to increase them almost everywhere at least modestly, and actually significantly in southeastern zones where "likely" percentages (60+) are now advertised. - In short, the fairly strong mid-upper level trough (clearly evident on water vapor imagery entering western NE) has pushed the associated modestly-strong surface/low level cold front southeastward into our CWA a bit faster, which has allowed sufficient lift to kick in a little sooner, and get the storms going earlier/farther west. - Overall (and fortunately) no big change of thinking regarding the limited severe storm threat. Although SPC just expanded their official Marginal Risk slightly into more of our eastern CWA on their just-updated Day 1 product, overall the vast majority of storms within our CWA this evening-tonight should be of the sub-severe variety, mainly producing small hail (pea to perhaps penny size) and gusty winds (up to 40-50 MPH...and likely enhanced by the frontal surge). That being said, a marginally- severe storm or two (quarter hail/60 MPH winds) cannot be ruled out MAINLY southeast of a York-Osborne KS line and MAINLY 9 PM-Midnight, during which time convection will spend the most "residence time" in an area of decent elevated instability (1000-1500 J/kg in the 850-700 millibar layer), but only modest deep layer shear of 30-35KT. Fortunately, much stronger deep layer shear moving in with the main trough axis will lag the aforementioned instability axis. - Now that we are getting a better handle on things forecast-wise, confidence is pretty high that any possible threat for a few SEVERE storms should end in our east-southeast zones no later than 12-1 AM, and any lingering WEAK storms should vacate our eastern zones no later than around 3 AM. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Key Messages * Fire concerns are the primary concern through Thursday * Strong winds will persist through the next few days * Spotty showers/thunder possible tonight - otherwise dry throughout the remainder of the forecast. * Relatively seasonal throughout the forecast. The primary concern for the forecast is the potential for fire weather. Today a Red Flag warning is in effect for the combination of low RH and strong winds. The limiting factor today is that the strongest southwest winds are well to the east of the driest air. However, as the front moves through wind will become westerly and gusty and that is when the RH values will drop the most. This will be the prime area to watch for fires as it moves through. The front as of 3:30pm is just to the west of the forecast area, just west of Gothenburg. The fire concerns persist through Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday is more marginal than Thursday, but the limiting factor on Wednesday is the RH values - and fire behavior is more impacted by wind than RH. Thus with winds gusting to 40 to 45 mph, any fire that develops even with marginal RH could get out of control quickly. Thus the Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday. On Thursday, both RH and wind speeds are of concern for fire weather. Tonight - there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms as the upper disturbance and associated front moves through the region. Instability is higher in eastern NE and KS, but some storms could get going on the far southeastern portions of the forecast area before moving into southeastern NE and northeastern KS. The activity should be exiting the area during the overnight hours. While widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected, some strong to marginally severe storms are possible especially later this evening. Beyond this chance for showers and thunderstorms, the forecast is dry. Behind the cold front that will move through this evening, northwest winds will be gusty as a couple disturbances rotate down into the trough over the Great Lakes region. Northwesterly winds will gust exceeding 40 to 45 mph Wednesday and Thursday and over 30 mph on Friday. That will cause it to not be quite as pleasant outdoors. Through the remainder of the forecast, northwesterly flow will dominate with a few disturbances moving or rotating down into the trough over the Great Lakes region. Temps will be in the 60s and 70s through much of the forecast, with some 50s as we move into the next work-week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday) Issued at 545 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 The winds will be the main issue tonight as a cold front will move through the TAF sites this evening. The winds will start off SW-W and will become NW after FROPA and look to remain NW through the period. The winds behind the front will be gusty until the early morning hours when they taper off and will pickup once the inversion breaks around mid-morning. There will be some small chances for VCSH this evening so decided to put a mention in. Both the NAM and HRRR try to bring something across the TAF sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 The fire concerns persist through Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday is more marginal than Thursday, but the limiting factor on Wednesday is the RH values - and fire behavior is more impacted by wind than RH. Thus with winds gusting to 40 to 45 mph, any fire that develops even with marginal RH could get out of control quickly. Thus the Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday. On Thursday, both RH and wind speeds are of concern for fire weather. Winds will again gust to 40 to 45 mph and RH values are lower with teens to low 20s expected. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATES...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION...Billings Wright AVIATION...Beda FIRE WEATHER...Billings Wright
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
948 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 The Red Flag Warning has been allowed to end as the cold front has made it through the majority of the forecast area allowing RH values to rise well above critical criteria. The gusty winds will continue through at least midnight. Winds were a bit lagging behind the front but have steadily increased in the past half hour or so as stronger CAA works its way into the forecast area as seen on SPC Mesoanalysis, which is allowing some of the stronger winds to make it to the surface. I am still expecting occasional gusts up to 50 mph with perhaps some locally higher gusts especially south of Interstate 70 where the NAM and HRRR have stronger low level winds according to forecast soundings. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Near term concern will be winds this evening with the front. Latest model guidance shows sharp pressure rises with frontal passage resulting in wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range, the HRRR even showing some areas of 50-60 mph. So, have bumped up the winds considerably and added a mention of blowing dust given the background dry conditions. Measurable precipitation chances will be low with only a few hundredths possible, but expecting mostly virga. After midnight, skies will clear and winds diminish, with low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Some patch frost is possible in northeast Colorado, but not enough confidence it will be impactful or widespread enough to require an advisory. Wednesday through Friday the area will be under northwest flow with dry, windy and warm conditions. Deep mixing to 700mb will tap into the stronger winds aloft both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, with strongest gusts in northeast areas from McCook to Norton. Mixing heights and model forecasts suggest gusts to 35-40 mph Wednesday afternoon and 40-45 mph Thursday afternoon, while winds on Friday afternoon appear they will be lower. Elevated fire weather conditions will occur both days due to the winds and afternoon relative humidity minimums of around 15 to 20 percent Wednesday and around 20 percent Thursday. If winds increase at all on Friday, it could be another critical day with RH currently forecast to be 10 to 15 percent in many areas. Temperatures will be above normal on Wednesday (mid 70s), near normal on Thursday behind a weak front (upper 60s) and much above normal on Friday (upper 70s to lower 80s). Low temperatures will generally be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with some western areas seeing a risk for frost both Thursday and Friday mornings, provided wind speeds decrease enough around sunrise. Current forecast shows winds staying around 10 kts in the overnight to early morning hours, which may be enough to prevent frost from developing. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Rex block will develop over the western CONUS with an upper low in the desert southwest and ridge in the Pacific northwest. The upper low will be very slow to kick out, and once it does models move it into the southern plains sometime early next week. On that track the local area would stay dry. Temperatures will be near normal with no significant frontal passages. We will also get a break from the wind and fire weather, with winds generally less than 15 mph through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 945 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Winds are slowly becoming less breezy north of Interstate 70 with the expectation that winds will wane to around 12 knots at 06Z as the tighter pressure gradient in the wake of the cold front. Winds will again increase in speed as breezy to gusty winds returns lat morning as the inversion breaks down; gusts up to 30 knots currently looks most likely. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
903 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 831 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will continue late this evening as another disturbance crosses central Illinois. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the west overnight, which will bring more showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday. Temperatures will be mild ahead of the front, topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of central Illinois Wednesday afternoon. Cooler air will arrive behind the front Thursday and Friday with highs generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 903 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Another enhancement of showers is moving into central IL as a compact circulation tracks northeastward in southwest flow. This should slowly traverse the area through midnight. No lightning has been detected with this disturbance recently, although RAP analysis shows up to 500 J/KG MUCAPE near the Mississippi River, and a rumble of thunder in the vicinity this evening can`t be ruled out. After midnight, the corridor of higher CAPE will shift eastward and chances for thunder will increase, although values of CAPE in the corridor look to diminish to just a few hundred J/KG. Warm advection, and a low level jet will continue to support precipitation overnight. Updates this evening have been for short term temperatures trends and to increase PoPs for the approaching disturbance. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 This afternoon, a cold front stretches from northern Minnesota southwest across central Nebraska and into eastern Colorado. Aloft, a couple shortwave troughs are noted on water vapor imagery lifting NE. As of about 3 pm, the first wave is lifting across the mid Mississippi Valley into northern Illinois while a second wave is over western Missouri. While the bulk of the precip is occurring with the lead shortwave, at least scattered showers will remain possible this evening into tonight as the second wave lifts across the region. In addition, a broad corridor of warm air advection ahead of the approaching cold front will result in ascent across the region and support the chance for precip through tonight. Given the southwest flow and cloud cover over the region, non-diurnal temp trends are expected overnight with temps generally not expected to move much from where they are the 60s. The cold front is expected to push across central Illinois during the day Wednesday. Temps may hold steady or fall northwest of the Illinois River Valley where the front pushes through the earliest, but otherwise expect mild and breezy conditions to continue into the first half of the day Wednesday ahead of the front. Winds will turn west to northwest with frontal passage and expect precip chances to diminish behind the front as drier air begins to work into the region. Steepening low level lapse rates in the cold advection will allow breezy conditions to continue through the day Wednesday with gusts of 20 to 30 mph likely. Temps will fall into the lower to mid 40s Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 A closed upper low will be in place over the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes to start the period Thursday with moderately strong northwesterly flow spreading a cooler air mass across much of the Midwest. Breezy conditions will continue Thursday with deep mixing and steep lapse rates tapping into 30-35 kt flow around 800 mb. With 850mb temps falling to around 0-2C across central Illinois, surface temps will only top out in the mid to upper 50s north of I-72 and lower to mid 60s south. Some high based cumulus is possible per forecast soundings, but otherwise expect the dry air mass to support little cloud cover Thursday. The upper low will move very little through Friday and anticipate fairly similar conditions again on Friday with winds a touch weaker owing to a slightly weaker gradient. Uncertainty in forecast details increases on Saturday mainly due to a low amplitude shortwave approaching the base of the main upper trough. Ensemble guidance shows bimodal distribution for temps due to timing differences with the aforementioned shortwave. A brief window of warm air advection occurs ahead of the wave and faster guidance has this warmup occuring mainly Friday night with cooler air spreading in faster during the day Saturday. The faster/cooler scenario would result in highs mainly in the 50s/lower 60s again Saturday while the slower/warmer solutions favor highs in the 60s/lower 70s for most of the area. Finally, precip is not favored with this wave but couldn`t completely rule out a few sprinkles or light showers. Roughly 95% of the Grand Ensemble members have zero QPF or very light (less than a tenth of an inch) with forecast soundings showing very dry conditions lingering below roughly 750mb the would favor virga. Sunday through Tuesday of next week will see central Illinois just upstream of the upper trough that persists over the Great Lakes through this time frame. Temperatures will continue to run on the cooler side with precip favored just to our north and northeast closer to the upper trough. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 A series of disturbances will continue to bring scattered showers into late this evening, while a cold front approaches from the west. Surface winds will be somewhat variable due to these disturbances, especially for the the I-72 terminals which look like they will be in the track of a surface low. Nevertheless, strong winds at the 2000 ft AGL level will produce low level wind shear as a low level jet develops. Conditions look to be primarily VFR until the cold front arrives Wednesday morning, producing a band of showers with MVFR cigs and vsbys. Behind the front, a period of MVFR cigs will continue for a few hours, with winds shifting from southerly to westerly or northwesterly. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...37 SYNOPSIS...37 SHORT TERM...Deubelbeiss LONG TERM...Deubelbeiss AVIATION...37
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
634 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 A broken band of showers persists from west central IL through central MO into southwest MO this afternoon. These are occurring within the southwesterly LLJ aided by a series of weak vort maxes in the mid-level flow. Present indications are this activity will gradually wane and shift to the northeast through the late afternoon and early evening. Attention then turns to the next good threat of showers and storms. Overall the thinking has not changed much and the expectation is that showers and scattered storms will develop/spread into the northeast and central MO and west central IL in the 09-12z time frame. This activity will be occurring in the warm sector well ahead of the advancing cold front, in response to large scale forcing associated with a digging upper trof and also forcing via a southwesterly LLJ. While the severe weather threat with this activity is not zero, present indications are that is low. Any storms will be elevated and the latest RAP has MUCAPE in the 500- 1000 J/KG range with some steeper mid level lapse rates suggesting an isolated strong-severe storm with hail and gusty winds is not out of the question. The band of pre-frontal showers is expected to move quickly southeastward on Wednesday morning in response to the progressive digging upper trof and shifting of the core of the LLJ, exiting the CWA by midday. Instability is expected to wane with time during the morning into the afternoon, although could boost back up during the afternoon with SCAPE of 500+ along/ahead of the cold front as it moves into and through southeast MO and southwest IL during the afternoon. Thus a few storms could form along the front in a narrow window around 18-21z before the front exits. Glass .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Another second and more substantial cold front will move through the area on Wednesday night. There could be some sprinkles across parts of northeast MO and west central IL in the evening but the threat of measurable rain appears rather low. Thursday will be a cooler and windy day. Soundings indicate deep mixing over 7000 feet which will aid in momentum transport supporting west- northwest winds gusting to 30+ mph. The mixing should also drop dew points into the mid-upper 20s. The resulting relative humidity will drop rather low in the afternoon, in the low-mid 20s. The gusty winds and low RH has prompted some fire danger concerns. Although todays rain and tomorrows will likely boost 10 hour fuels, the fine 1 hour fuels like grasses should dry out quickly. Given these anticipated conditions we will be messaging elevated fire danger. A large scale blocking pattern over the western CONUS will keep a deep longwave trof anchored across eastern NOAM the later part of this week and into next week. That said there are notable differences in the exact position of the trof axis and overall depth of the trof in response to short waves rotating/digging through the mean trof. The cluster analysis shows quite a bit of variability in the ensemble membership with height differences across parts of the area +/- 100 decameters. There seems to be some consensus we will see a cold front passage late Friday night into Saturday with cooler temps on Sunday. There is also a growing signal of much cooler weather Monday into Tuesday with frost/freeze potential on Tuesday morning. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 VFR flight conditions will prevail outside of the showers and thunderstorms expected during the TAF period. Light rain continues to move across the area this evening but should stay out of the terminals. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region overnight and into tomorrow morning, but uncertainty in the location of thunderstorms keeps the mention in the TAF to VCTS. MVFR conditions are expected with the precipitation as rain drops the visibility to near 5 miles. A cold front will move through behind the showers and thunderstorms, and along the front MVFR ceilings are possible, though confidence isn`t high enough to mention in the TAFs at this point. Gusty southerly winds will continue overnight, becoming west-northwest during the morning and remaining strong and gusty. MRM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Elevated fire danger on Thursday afternoon. Soundings indicate deep mixing over 7000 feet will occur on Thursday afternoon which will aid in momentum transport supporting west-northwest winds gusting to 30+ mph. The mixing should also drop dew points into the mid-upper 20s. The resulting relative humidity will drop rather low in the afternoon, in the low-mid 20s. The gusty winds and low RH has prompted fire danger concerns. Although todays rain and tomorrows will likely boost 10 hour fuels, the fine 1 hour fuels like grasses should dry out quickly. Given these anticipated conditions we will be messaging elevated fire danger. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
958 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 957 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Southwest flow tonight is allowing temperatures to stay up with high cloudiness increasing ahead of the incoming trough. The upper trough is moving into the southern plains and mid mississippi valley this evening. Showers are beginning to develop across the lower Ohio Valley and also to the southwest over central Alabama into central Georgia at this time. The moisture will gradually increase overnight with a few showers developing or moving into the southern plateau and southwest North Carolina before morning. Temperatures are only expected to drop about 5 to 7 more degrees from the 9 pm temperatures that were in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Have updated hourly temperatures and dew points and increased cloud cover overnight. Otherwise no other changes to forecast. Will update text forecast because of some changes to sky cover and slight rain chances south. Update out soon. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Key Messages: 1. Wednesday will be warm and breezy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon is possible. 2. Wednesday night showers and thunderstorms, chance for strong storms over the Plateau counties. Discussion: Milder weather tonight as southwesterly flow ahead of the incoming trough keeps temperatures warmer than they have been. Speaking of the trough, a large synoptic trough coming into the Northern Plains now will push into the Great Lakes area going through Wednesday, dragging a cold front south to pass through late overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Wednesday afternoon will be warm and breezy, with an isolated chance of a shower or thunderstorm. The main threat, if there is to be any, will be in the overnight period with the approach of a probably weakening line of thunderstorms from the west. Currently the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk shaved to our most western counties along the Plateau. Biggest risk is an isolated chance of a transient organized storm or two becoming briefly severe. Poor dynamics and widespread cloud cover will act to dampen overall potential with this event. 12z HRRR guidance shows one possible scenario that ends up being drier for our area than both GEFS and Euro Means otherwise suggest: an approaching line of thunderstorms over the Plateau that falls apart as it enters the Tennessee Valley. In an area thirsting for rain, the wetter the better. The ensemble means were quarter to around a half inch near area wide for the event, whereas the HRRR guidance was running at best half as much. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Key Messages: 1. Drier weather, with seasonally cool conditions Thursday and Friday. Warmer but still dry on Saturday. 2. Another front approaches late this week with additional showers possible but confidence on timing of this front is low. 3. Drier and cooler next week. Discussion: On Thursday, broad mid/upper level cyclonic flow will encompass much of eastern CONUS. Westerly to northwest flow behind the cold front will usher in much drier air across the region. At the surface high pressure will settle across southern Canada, and the northern US. With much drier air in place, dry and mostly clear skies can be expected Thursday through Saturday. Models soundings depict deep mixing possible Friday resulting in lower dewpoints, and gusty winds. Afternoon dewpoints could dip into the upper 20`s to lower 30`s which would result in low RH`s. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday and Friday will quickly rebound to above normal on Saturday as winds shift toward the south. With an upper low centered across the Hudson Bay region, several shortwave will move across the Ohio valley sending a cold front into the area sometime Sunday into Monday. Confidence on timing of this front is still low but slight chance to chance PoPs will occur along and ahead of this front. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to indicate a cooler airmass will settle into the region Monday and Tuesday as high pressure settles across the plains. Temperatures below normal are expected with dry weather continuing. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 747 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Low clouds expected to come in to CHA late tonight and remain until early afternoon Wednesday. High level cloudiness will persist at the other sites. Other terminals should have scattered high level cloudiness. Winds will pick up in the afternoon at the terminals Showers should move in to CHA and TYS late in the afternoon with a chance of thunderstorms at CHA late. Will just have prob30 group for TRI site late Wednesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 77 63 75 / 10 60 90 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 79 61 73 / 0 30 90 20 Oak Ridge, TN 54 78 61 73 / 0 30 90 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 76 58 70 / 0 20 90 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wellington/TD LONG TERM....Diegan AVIATION...TD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
727 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 724 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Showers with a couple rumbles of thunder already developing along the cold front in northeast NE. Thus, have updated Pops to mention an earlier start time and farther northwestern location, and also have increased pops to 60-70% by 2-4z along/south of I80. Most recent runs of the HRRR model seem to be latching onto this. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Key Messages: - Fire weather concerns through at least Thursday. - Gusty northwest winds Wednesday and Thursday. - Cooler through the remainder of the week. Main forecast challenge over the next several days will be fire weather concerns with the pattern favorable for gusty northwest winds and dry air working in behind a cold front that will pass through this evening. Early afternoon analysis placed the front from northeast ND, southwestward through central SD, and westward into WY. A pre-frontal trough was noted across the NE panhandle, where winds had become northwesterly, but temperatures remained 20+ degrees warmer than those behind the front. Closer to home, observations across the forecast area showed temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s with southwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph in many locations. The good news from a fire weather perspective was that RH values had managed to stay above 30 percent at most locations, perhaps decreasing fire weather concerns a bit, though that could quickly change over the next few hours in parts of northeast NE, especially as the front and wind shift come through. Otherwise, heading into this evening and overnight, CAMs are in good agreement of thunderstorm development ahead of the front, though still differ a fair amount on timing, and therefore placement. Greatest chances will extend from far southeast NE into far southwest IA, and increase going farther southeast (and out of the forecast area). If storms develop earlier (7-8 PM or so), they could develop as far north as a Columbus to Sioux City line. The later solutions (2-3 AM) would suggest closer to Falls City. Again, the correct solution probably lies somewhere in the middle. As far as storm strength, HREF guidance suggests pockets of 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE in place ahead of the front this evening, though strongest deep layer shear will lag behind the front, leading to very little in the way of storm organization. As it stands, think we`ll see a narrow line to broken line of storms with individual cells occasionally strengthening enough to produce up to quarter sized hail and perhaps some gusty winds as they bring the stronger winds aloft down to the surface. Low level shear does look to be rather strong, with hodographs showing some decent curvature, but thinking it will be tough to get any surface based convection that could "use" that shear given expected later timing. Behind the front, expect gusty northwesterly to westerly winds (gusts of 30 to 40+ mph per EPS means) to persist into Friday and usher in plenty of dry air. Given the westerly component of winds (and fairly deep mixing), also expect temperatures to be on the warmer side of guidance. As a result, RH values are expected to hover around the 20 percent mark in many locations at least Wednesday and Thursday. Therefore, issued a Fire Weather Watch for most of the area both days. Regardless of RH values, winds will be strong enough to make any fire that does start rather difficult to contain. We`ll remain under northwesterly flow aloft as a cutoff low spins just northwest of the Great Lakes into the weekend setting us up for continued breezy (though not quite as strong) and fall-like weather. Expect temperatures to generally top out in the 60s and 70s with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. The coldest night currently looks to be Friday night, with lows Saturday morning ranging from the lower 30s in west-central IA to the mid and upper 30s elsewhere. Currently have a dry forecast going, though various ensemble members do show potential for spotty light precip associated with various bits of shortwave energy rounding the back side of the aforementioned cutoff low. However, difficult to pinpoint a time given large spread in guidance. Also, with dry air in place, amounts would likely be quite low if any precip were to occur. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Shower/Thunderstorm chances are the initial concern, and then winds through the period. Thunderstorms will be possible at KOMA/KLNK 03-05, with showers until about 09-10z. Any storms that develop will likely be east of the KOFK location. Southwest winds at 12 to 26 knots at TAF issuance, but becoming northwest through the period by 09-10z, when winds diminish to less than 7 knots. Northwest winds increase again by 16-17z with gusts 28 to 30 knots tomorrow afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-016-030. IA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-090. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-090. && $$ UPDATE...DeWald DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...DeWald