Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/12/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
716 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022
.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery shows northerly flow aloft and mostly clear
skies in our forecast area this evening (just lingering mid clouds
in our east). Upstream, there is a weak shortwave dropping thru
Alberta and a few light showers north of Calgary. This energy will
clip eastern MT later tonight and should bring isolated light
showers to our east after midnight into Wednesday morning. Once
the wave passes we will see gusty NW winds develop, especially
east of Rosebud County. Forecast is in good shape. Have made a few
minor adjustments to sky cover, pops/wx and winds. JKL
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday Night...
A few showers popped up this afternoon over central parts of the
area due to vorticity in the upper trough moving through the area.
Another lobe of vorticity will swing S tonight in the western edge
of the trough, accompanied by some frontogenesis, and a small
chance of showers. The HRRR and some of the synoptic deterministic
models caught onto these features and had some showers in the E
late tonight through Wednesday morning. Thus have included these
PoPs in the forecast. It will remain breezy over portions of the
area overnight due to strong NW flow aloft. Expect winds to pick
up again Wed. afternoon, especially in the E around KBHK and
Ekalaka, as the NAEFS showed 50-60 kt at 700 mb with around 40 kt
at 850 mb. Soundings showed good mixing down of the winds. Expect
gusts in the 40s in places like KMLS and Broadus, with gusts near
50 mph in KBHK and Ekalaka. The winds in the E will become lighter
Wed. night but will remain gusty. More gusty winds were on tap for
the E on Thursday, but will not be as strong as Wednesday`s winds.
Otherwise, Thu. will be dry. Temps will be a few degrees below
normal on Wed. and RH`s will be high enough to preclude a fire
weather highlight. A warmer day is expected on Thursday. Arthur
Friday through Tuesday...
Broad upper ridge look sto sit over much of the Pacific Northwest,
keeping us under northwest flow and keeping conditions benign.
Winds in the far southeast will continue to gust 35-45 mph Friday
afternoon as 700 mb winds flirt with 50kt speeds (though 850 mb
winds only reach ~35 kts). About 40% of ensemble members put us
in cyclonic flow on Saturday from the dynamic upper low that`ll
move south into the Great Lakes region, with us possibly catching
just enough of the edge of it to bring a small chance for light
rain to the lower elevations, and light snow to the mountains.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain near to just above normal fo
the weekend into next week. Vertz
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours under northerly flow
aloft, though there will be some 5-8kft agl ceilings from KBIL
eastward later tonight and Wednesday. Expect mostly light winds
tonight, then gusty NW winds tomorrow especially in the east.
Gusts of 30-45 knots will impact areas from KMLS-K00F eastward.
JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/060 039/066 043/072 047/063 040/062 038/066 040/067
00/B 00/U 00/U 22/W 10/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 041/067 036/070 039/071 041/063 034/065 036/069 036/070
00/N 00/U 00/U 11/B 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 039/060 035/065 039/074 045/063 036/063 034/067 035/068
11/B 00/U 00/U 22/W 10/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 042/057 038/059 040/069 045/060 036/057 033/060 035/064
21/N 00/U 00/B 11/B 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 040/055 038/058 041/069 046/060 036/058 033/062 035/065
12/W 00/U 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 039/054 035/055 038/064 041/057 032/053 029/056 031/061
21/N 00/N 00/N 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 037/057 038/063 039/071 043/061 035/062 035/066 036/068
00/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 10/U 00/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1008 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022
.Synopsis...
High pressure extending from the mid-Atlantic will persist
overnight. A potent cold front will enter the western Great Lakes
Wednesday morning and sweep across the region Wednesday night.
Low pressure will meander just north of the Great Lakes through
the end of the week with a second cold front crossing the region
Friday.
&&
.Near Term... /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
First round of rain is lifting north of the area in the Toledo
vicinity. Expecting showers to gradually move east across the area
over the next 24 hours. No major changes with this update expected
at this time.
Previous discussion...
High pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic extends westward
into the local region. Warm temperatures will continue into
tonight though mid-level cloud cover increases from the west.
Deep upper-level trough digs into the Great Lakes region
tonight into tomorrow. A cold front, extending southward from a
low in northern Ontario, will move east across the Great Lakes
region tonight and tomorrow as well, located near Lake Michigan
by tomorrow afternoon. During the daytime hours tomorrow,
cloudiness, isolated rain showers, and gusty southerly winds is
expected. Considerable lift associated with this trough will
result in the development of line of shower and embedded
isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of this cold front.
Current expectation is for this line to move eastward across the
area tomorrow evening through the overnight hours, though its
possible isolated convection develops ahead of this Wednesday
afternoon.
During the daytime, cloudiness inhibits the development of
instability. However, despite this, strong advection of warm,
moist air into the region may allow for marginal instability to
build up, with models such as the RAP and NAM forecasting MUCAPE
upwards of 750 J/kg by around 00Z Thu. Moderate deep layer shear
of 40-45 kts and strong low-level flow (40-50 kts at 850mb)
would support strong to severe level winds with convection, if
enough instability is able to build in. Will have to watch for
cloud breaks tomorrow, which may allow for daytime heating, and
resulting buildup of instability. Given the strong wind field
aloft, it shouldn`t take too much instability to allow for
severe gusts with thunderstorms. Strong low-level shear (30-40
kts 0-1km shear and moderate 0-1 m^2/s^2 SRH) could potentially
support an isolated tornado, though the threat level is low. Low
instability should limit hail threat, and high storm motion of
showers and storms should also limit flash flooding.
&&
.Short Term... /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level trough will pivot east across the CWA Thursday as a
broad upper low churns over the Upper Midwest and Ontario.
Although the surface cold front will exit the eastern fringes of
the area at the start of the period, additional troughs/shortwaves
will pivot across the Great Lakes throughout the short term
period. Expect temps to cool aloft and can`t rule out some
scattered lake- enhanced showers Thursday, but moisture may be
limited and southwesterly flow may focus any precipitation into
western New York. Drier air infiltrates the region Friday and
anticipate a lull in precip and decrease in cloud cover Friday and
Friday night.
Much cooler temps arrive late this week with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s Thursday and the mid to upper 50s Friday. Overnight
lows fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s Thursday and Friday
night.
&&
.Long Term... /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper-level low will anchor to the northwest of the region
through the long term period, with a series of troughs and surface
cold fronts moving across the local area this weekend into early
next week. This will lead to several rounds of scattered lake-
enhanced showers with gradually declining temperatures. In fact,
it may get so cold that rain may mix with and/or transition to
snow late Monday night into early Tuesday. Highs in the 60s
Saturday will fall to the 40s by Tuesday, with overnight lows near
or below freezing Sunday and Monday night.
&&
.Aviation... /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain is expected to gradually move east across the area during the
next 24 hours. Expecting mostly VFR conditions across the area
until the latter portions of the forecast period. Ceilings will
lower slightly as the cold front approaches from the west. Best
chance of IFR/MVFR ceilings will arrive with the cold front during
the last 6 hours of the CLE forecast period. Otherwise, mainly VFR
expected across the area.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely with a line of showers and
thunderstorms late Wednesday night. Non-VFR possible with
scattered rain showers Thursday through Friday for northeast Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania. Non-VFR possible again with scattered
rain showers Saturday through Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots will persist through this evening,
before becoming more southerly and increasing to near 20 knots
tonight. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed during the day
Wednesday and perhaps Wednesday night as a cold front moves east
across the lake and flow shifts to the west. Expect generally
southwest to westerly flow 15 to 20 knots through Sunday, which
may result in periodic marine headlines.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy/Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM....Maines
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Maines
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
621 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Summary: A strong cold front and upper trough will move through the
region tonight causing showers and thunderstorms to develop. A few
severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening, mainly after 7
pm into the early morning hours. Much cooler air will then move in
for Wednesday into the weekend. There will be periodic chances for
showers, both rain and snow.
A cold front extended from a low in Manitoba south through the
eastern Dakotas as of early afternoon. A warm frontal boundary
extended through western and southern Minnesota. Forecast RAP
soundings show a cap in place with plenty of MLCIN present. The
Northland was dry and it will take some time for showers/storms to
develop. We followed the CAM guidance and RAP soundings which
indicate it will be around 00Z before showers/storms develop across
the Northland. The front will just be entering our western CWA
around 00Z with a low level jet ahead of it. We increase POPs
through the evening but confine thunderstorms to the eastern half.
MUCAPE values will rise to 1000-1500 J/kg with MLCAPE values a bit
lower. Adequate shear will be in place and 700-500 lapse rates of 7-
8 C/KM are expected. Given the storms are developing this evening,
soundings show the near surface layer becoming more stable so the
storms may be or become elevated. There will be a severe threat over
eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with the main threats
hail around the size of quarters and damaging wind to 60 mph. Deep
mean layer winds are more parallel to the frontal boundary and we
expect initial storms will develop into a line or line segments with
time. The main time period for a severe storms will be after 7 pm
into the early morning hours.
Colder air will move in Wednesday into Wednesday night and continue
into the weekend. An upper low will remain near the region and send
several shortwaves through the area keeping chances for showers
going and keeping temperatures below normal for the remainder of the
week. Precipitation chances will be highest over northern Minnesota.
Snow showers will develop Wednesday night and continue into the
weekend, especially during the overnight and morning hours. For now,
we only have light snow accumulation through Friday, around an inch
or less. However, a stronger shortwave on Friday could cause higher
precipitation amounts than currently forecast and we`ll keep a close
watch during that time. There may also be some light snow
accumulation along the snowbelt of the South Shore. However, the low
level fetch is more west of north than what`s ideal for lake effect
there through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
VFR with a strong cold front crossing tonight. LLWS abounds with
gusty southerly surface winds. Eventually, a line of convection
is supposed to unzip around 01-03Z. Models generally have this
solution, but the intensity varies widely amongst guidance. For
now kept VFR, but will tempo in IFR as needed. Break in the shower
activity Wednesday morning before more showers return Wed
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Strong southerly winds have developed over the South Shore this
afternoon with winds east/northeast along the North Shore. The
wind is expected to become southerly along the North Shore this
evening. Gusts around 30 knots will be common along the South
Shore, especially closer to shore with some gales possible as
well. We`ll monitor conditions as it is possible a short Gale
Warning may be needed for portions of the South Shore through this
evening. A cold front will move through the region tonight causing
winds to veer to west/northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop as well this evening ahead of the front with
showers continuing behind. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible with hail the size of quarters and wind gusts in excess
of 40 knots possible.
We did increase winds for Wednesday into Wednesday night and
extended the the Small Craft Advisories for the South Shore. It`s
possible a Small Craft Advisory may need to be extended along the
North Shore as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 46 54 33 44 / 40 50 30 30
INL 44 50 31 41 / 20 60 70 70
BRD 44 53 33 43 / 30 40 10 10
HYR 46 56 34 44 / 60 60 40 40
ASX 49 57 36 47 / 60 60 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-145-148.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday for LSZ140>144.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ146-147-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
748 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Scattered to widespread rain showers, and even some rumbles of
thunder, were observed across most of eastern Iowa, northwest
Illinois and far northeast Missouri early this afternoon. This
activity was being driven out ahead of a trough centered over the
eastern Rockies, with several shortwaves out ahead of it in the
central Plains and Midwest. WAA was rather robust as well with the
DVN 12z sounding hinting at a 25-30 kt LLJ, with a stronger near 40
kt jet at SGF. Surface dewpoints were in the upper 50s to early
60s across the area, with temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
[Key Messages]
1) Turning windy this evening and overnight with gusts around 40-45
MPH possible
2) Low risk of severe thunderstorms with main hazards being large
hail and damaging winds
3) Cold front arrives midday Wednesday with cooling temperatures,
gusty winds and scattered rain showers
[Discussion]
Concerns in the short term range from very windy conditions to
potential for severe weather tonight.
Trough situated over the northern Plains into the central Plains
will continue to slowly advance eastward over the next 24 hours. Low
pressure is progged to develop just north of North Dakota this
afternoon with a rather robust deepening this evening, leading to a
tight pressure gradient between it and high pressure over the
eastern U.S.. Winds are expected to strengthen in the low-levels
with some synoptic guidance depicting a LLJ of around 50-60 kts
across the Midwest!
The question then turns to just how much this translates to the
surface and how windy it could get this evening and overnight.
Unfortunately, as was the case in the 00z guidance, there is no
substantial agreement. CAMs ranging from the ARW, NMM and NAMnest
are the most robust in terms of wind gusts, with values near to
right around advisory criteria. These models favor a more robust LLJ
with a shallow inversion. Meanwhile, more synoptic guidance
including the GFS, ECMWF and CAMs such as the HRRR and RAP are lower
on the gusts with more difficulty in getting past the inversion and
lower level stability. These kinds of situations are tricky to
forecast, and climatology for a similar wind setup is generally not
in our favor (unlike a northwesterly wind setup with more robust low-
level mixing). Where this could come easily into play, however, are
areas that see rain showers and storms tonight, as momentum transfer
in these environments promote more low-level mixing. This is the
solution the HRRR is favoring, which I`m beginning to lean more
towards given the low-level stability at play.
Speaking of precip, expect this first round of rain showers to exit
the area from west to east this evening with the shortwave
responsible moving into central Illinois. Attention then turns to
later this evening and overnight as the cold front begins to
approach the area in tandem with more robust lift with a vort max
and strong LLJ. Expecting a renewed round of showers, and some
scattered storms, just ahead of the front beginning around 100 AM
and continuing through mid-morning Wednesday. The strengthening LLJ
will help steepen mid-level lapse rates to around 7-8C/km, allowing
for decent updrafts that root themselves just above the inversion.
Should this occur, the potential is there for storms to produce hail
and damaging wind gusts. However, this is under the condition that
storms break the low-level stability, hence the lower end risk. All
of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri
remains in a Level 1 (marginal) risk of severe thunderstorms.
Heading into Wednesday, the majority of precipitation will exit the
area to the east by midday as the cold front moves through the area.
Isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible for areas along
and north of Hwy 30 during the afternoon, but expecting most to
remain dry with clearing skies. Winds will turn to the northwest and
will subside somewhat, but it will remain gusty with values around
25-35 MPH during the afternoon. Highs will only get into the mid to
upper 60s, with some sites in eastern Iowa cooling during the
afternoon after the frontal passage.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Wednesday night into Thursday...Cyclonic northwest flow behind/west
of long wave upper trof axis will continue to produce blustery
cooling conditions Wed evening, as well as a low chance for some
spotty sprinkles or light showers in the wrap around. Then clearing
with some decrease in sfc winds into Thu morning with lows in the
mid 30s to low 40s. Cyclonic flow and cool advection to crank the
winds back up to a blustery 15 to 25 MPH on Thu, with a low chance
for some isolated to sctrd instability showers/sprinkles popping up
acrs far northeast IA,SW WI into northwest IL. The gusty winds and
low RH/dried down sfc DPTs could make for an elevated fire danger
Thu afternoon despite the cool temps, especially in cured crop
fields. Sfc wind decouple and clear out again could lead to a
freezing night Thu night into Friday morning with lows in the upper
20s to low 30s.
Friday through Sunday...Cool core large upper low complex over the
northern GRT LKS will moderate some thru Sunday, but still maintain
the blocked pattern as it ingests additional vort spokes from the
northwestern Hudson Bay region. As these features rotate thru,
there will be temporary undulations of southwest flow boundary layer
warming, to northwesterly flow cooling day to day, with
deterministic medium range solutions varying from each other still
at this time. Will continue ensemble temp blend of 50s to low 60s
depending on the day, with lows in the 30s to low 40s. Will also go
mainly dry, but more signs of along and post-frontally forced
showers or light rain bands skirting down acrs the area Friday night
into Sat morning. Re-enforcing cold dump under long wave amplification
may make for lows in the 20s to low 30s by Monday morning.
Monday and Tuesday...Longer range progs and trends on ensemble
members suggest reformation of cold core upper level cyclone in
deep trof base over the GRT LKS this period, with negative H85 mb
temp(C) gradient along and east of the DVN CWA. Mainly dry and
unseasonably cool/well below normal, with longer range thermal
profiles suggesting highs in the 40s to low 50s and lows in the
lower 30s to well down in the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
A mix of VFR to IFR flight conditions were observed early this
evening in the wake of a cluster of rain showers that moved
through the region. Eventually, a cold front will sweep through
the region late tonight into Wednesday morning, which should spark
off some additional showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. MVFR
visibility reductions and ceilings will be possible with this
activity. Before the front moves in, expect a period of low-level
wind shear, thanks to a rather strong southwesterly 40 to 50+
knot low-level jet developing. LLWS should impact all TAF
terminals before diminishing as the front passes through. Winds
will shift more northwesterly behind the front, and strengthen
during the day Wednesday, with gusts between 20 to 30 knots by the
afternoon hours.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Schultz
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
951 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
...FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
-- A quick note regarding Fire Weather headlines:
- Allowed today`s Red Flag Warning to expire "on time" as of 9 pm.
- Will defer to incoming night shift forecaster to make any
upgrade decisions regarding the CWA-wide Fire Weather Watch that
day shift issued for both Wed and Thurs afternoons.
UPDATE Issued at 816 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
-- Some comments regarding the very short term forecast through
these next 3-6 hours or so:
- Will fully admit that thunderstorms (at least one strong with
pea to slightly larger hail verified in Kearney) have fired up
1) a bit sooner and 2) a bit farther west than earlier
anticipated.
- As a result, have recently published a fairly substantial update
mainly to rain/storm chances (PoPs) to increase them almost
everywhere at least modestly, and actually significantly in
southeastern zones where "likely" percentages (60+) are now
advertised.
- In short, the fairly strong mid-upper level trough (clearly
evident on water vapor imagery entering western NE) has pushed
the associated modestly-strong surface/low level cold front
southeastward into our CWA a bit faster, which has allowed
sufficient lift to kick in a little sooner, and get the storms
going earlier/farther west.
- Overall (and fortunately) no big change of thinking regarding
the limited severe storm threat. Although SPC just expanded
their official Marginal Risk slightly into more of our eastern
CWA on their just-updated Day 1 product, overall the vast
majority of storms within our CWA this evening-tonight should be
of the sub-severe variety, mainly producing small hail (pea to
perhaps penny size) and gusty winds (up to 40-50 MPH...and
likely enhanced by the frontal surge). That being said, a
marginally- severe storm or two (quarter hail/60 MPH winds)
cannot be ruled out MAINLY southeast of a York-Osborne KS line
and MAINLY 9 PM-Midnight, during which time convection will
spend the most "residence time" in an area of decent elevated
instability (1000-1500 J/kg in the 850-700 millibar layer), but
only modest deep layer shear of 30-35KT. Fortunately, much
stronger deep layer shear moving in with the main trough axis
will lag the aforementioned instability axis.
- Now that we are getting a better handle on things forecast-wise,
confidence is pretty high that any possible threat for a few
SEVERE storms should end in our east-southeast zones no later
than 12-1 AM, and any lingering WEAK storms should vacate our
eastern zones no later than around 3 AM.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Key Messages
* Fire concerns are the primary concern through Thursday
* Strong winds will persist through the next few days
* Spotty showers/thunder possible tonight - otherwise dry
throughout the remainder of the forecast.
* Relatively seasonal throughout the forecast.
The primary concern for the forecast is the potential for fire
weather. Today a Red Flag warning is in effect for the combination
of low RH and strong winds. The limiting factor today is that the
strongest southwest winds are well to the east of the driest air.
However, as the front moves through wind will become westerly and
gusty and that is when the RH values will drop the most. This will
be the prime area to watch for fires as it moves through. The
front as of 3:30pm is just to the west of the forecast area, just
west of Gothenburg.
The fire concerns persist through Wednesday and Thursday.
Wednesday is more marginal than Thursday, but the limiting factor
on Wednesday is the RH values - and fire behavior is more impacted
by wind than RH. Thus with winds gusting to 40 to 45 mph, any fire
that develops even with marginal RH could get out of control
quickly. Thus the Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday. On Thursday,
both RH and wind speeds are of concern for fire weather.
Tonight - there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms as the
upper disturbance and associated front moves through the region.
Instability is higher in eastern NE and KS, but some storms could
get going on the far southeastern portions of the forecast area
before moving into southeastern NE and northeastern KS. The
activity should be exiting the area during the overnight hours.
While widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected, some
strong to marginally severe storms are possible especially later
this evening. Beyond this chance for showers and thunderstorms,
the forecast is dry.
Behind the cold front that will move through this evening,
northwest winds will be gusty as a couple disturbances rotate down
into the trough over the Great Lakes region. Northwesterly winds
will gust exceeding 40 to 45 mph Wednesday and Thursday and over
30 mph on Friday. That will cause it to not be quite as pleasant
outdoors.
Through the remainder of the forecast, northwesterly flow will
dominate with a few disturbances moving or rotating down into the
trough over the Great Lakes region. Temps will be in the 60s and
70s through much of the forecast, with some 50s as we move into
the next work-week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
The winds will be the main issue tonight as a cold front will move
through the TAF sites this evening. The winds will start off SW-W
and will become NW after FROPA and look to remain NW through the
period. The winds behind the front will be gusty until the early
morning hours when they taper off and will pickup once the
inversion breaks around mid-morning. There will be some small
chances for VCSH this evening so decided to put a mention in. Both
the NAM and HRRR try to bring something across the TAF sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
The fire concerns persist through Wednesday and Thursday.
Wednesday is more marginal than Thursday, but the limiting factor
on Wednesday is the RH values - and fire behavior is more impacted
by wind than RH. Thus with winds gusting to 40 to 45 mph, any fire
that develops even with marginal RH could get out of control
quickly. Thus the Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday. On Thursday,
both RH and wind speeds are of concern for fire weather. Winds
will again gust to 40 to 45 mph and RH values are lower with teens
to low 20s expected.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATES...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Beda
FIRE WEATHER...Billings Wright
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
948 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022
The Red Flag Warning has been allowed to end as the cold front has
made it through the majority of the forecast area allowing RH
values to rise well above critical criteria. The gusty winds will
continue through at least midnight. Winds were a bit lagging
behind the front but have steadily increased in the past half
hour or so as stronger CAA works its way into the forecast area
as seen on SPC Mesoanalysis, which is allowing some of the
stronger winds to make it to the surface. I am still expecting
occasional gusts up to 50 mph with perhaps some locally higher
gusts especially south of Interstate 70 where the NAM and HRRR
have stronger low level winds according to forecast soundings.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Near term concern will be winds this evening with the front.
Latest model guidance shows sharp pressure rises with frontal
passage resulting in wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range, the HRRR
even showing some areas of 50-60 mph. So, have bumped up the winds
considerably and added a mention of blowing dust given the
background dry conditions. Measurable precipitation chances will
be low with only a few hundredths possible, but expecting mostly
virga. After midnight, skies will clear and winds diminish, with
low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Some patch frost
is possible in northeast Colorado, but not enough confidence it
will be impactful or widespread enough to require an advisory.
Wednesday through Friday the area will be under northwest flow
with dry, windy and warm conditions. Deep mixing to 700mb will tap
into the stronger winds aloft both Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon, with strongest gusts in northeast areas from McCook to
Norton. Mixing heights and model forecasts suggest gusts to 35-40
mph Wednesday afternoon and 40-45 mph Thursday afternoon, while
winds on Friday afternoon appear they will be lower. Elevated fire
weather conditions will occur both days due to the winds and
afternoon relative humidity minimums of around 15 to 20 percent
Wednesday and around 20 percent Thursday. If winds increase at all
on Friday, it could be another critical day with RH currently
forecast to be 10 to 15 percent in many areas.
Temperatures will be above normal on Wednesday (mid 70s), near
normal on Thursday behind a weak front (upper 60s) and much above
normal on Friday (upper 70s to lower 80s). Low temperatures will
generally be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with some western
areas seeing a risk for frost both Thursday and Friday mornings,
provided wind speeds decrease enough around sunrise. Current
forecast shows winds staying around 10 kts in the overnight to
early morning hours, which may be enough to prevent frost from
developing.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Rex block will develop over the western CONUS with an upper low in
the desert southwest and ridge in the Pacific northwest. The upper
low will be very slow to kick out, and once it does models move it
into the southern plains sometime early next week. On that track
the local area would stay dry. Temperatures will be near normal
with no significant frontal passages. We will also get a break
from the wind and fire weather, with winds generally less than 15
mph through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 945 PM MDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Winds are slowly becoming less breezy north of Interstate 70 with
the expectation that winds will wane to around 12 knots at 06Z as
the tighter pressure gradient in the wake of the cold front. Winds
will again increase in speed as breezy to gusty winds returns lat
morning as the inversion breaks down; gusts up to 30 knots
currently looks most likely.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
903 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 831 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will continue late
this evening as another disturbance crosses central Illinois.
Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the west overnight,
which will bring more showers and thunderstorms overnight into
Wednesday. Temperatures will be mild ahead of the front, topping
out in the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of central Illinois
Wednesday afternoon. Cooler air will arrive behind the front
Thursday and Friday with highs generally in the mid 50s to lower
60s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Another enhancement of showers is moving into central IL as a
compact circulation tracks northeastward in southwest flow. This
should slowly traverse the area through midnight. No lightning has
been detected with this disturbance recently, although RAP
analysis shows up to 500 J/KG MUCAPE near the Mississippi River,
and a rumble of thunder in the vicinity this evening can`t be
ruled out. After midnight, the corridor of higher CAPE will shift
eastward and chances for thunder will increase, although values of
CAPE in the corridor look to diminish to just a few hundred J/KG.
Warm advection, and a low level jet will continue to support
precipitation overnight. Updates this evening have been for short
term temperatures trends and to increase PoPs for the approaching
disturbance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
This afternoon, a cold front stretches from northern Minnesota
southwest across central Nebraska and into eastern Colorado.
Aloft, a couple shortwave troughs are noted on water vapor
imagery lifting NE. As of about 3 pm, the first wave is lifting
across the mid Mississippi Valley into northern Illinois while a
second wave is over western Missouri. While the bulk of the precip
is occurring with the lead shortwave, at least scattered showers
will remain possible this evening into tonight as the second wave
lifts across the region. In addition, a broad corridor of warm air
advection ahead of the approaching cold front will result in
ascent across the region and support the chance for precip through
tonight. Given the southwest flow and cloud cover over the
region, non-diurnal temp trends are expected overnight with temps
generally not expected to move much from where they are now...in
the 60s.
The cold front is expected to push across central Illinois during
the day Wednesday. Temps may hold steady or fall northwest of the
Illinois River Valley where the front pushes through the earliest,
but otherwise expect mild and breezy conditions to continue into
the first half of the day Wednesday ahead of the front. Winds will
turn west to northwest with frontal passage and expect precip
chances to diminish behind the front as drier air begins to work
into the region. Steepening low level lapse rates in the cold
advection will allow breezy conditions to continue through the day
Wednesday with gusts of 20 to 30 mph likely. Temps will fall into
the lower to mid 40s Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
A closed upper low will be in place over the Upper Midwest and
western Great Lakes to start the period Thursday with moderately
strong northwesterly flow spreading a cooler air mass across much
of the Midwest. Breezy conditions will continue Thursday with deep
mixing and steep lapse rates tapping into 30-35 kt flow around
800 mb. With 850mb temps falling to around 0-2C across central
Illinois, surface temps will only top out in the mid to upper 50s
north of I-72 and lower to mid 60s south. Some high based cumulus
is possible per forecast soundings, but otherwise expect the dry
air mass to support little cloud cover Thursday. The upper low
will move very little through Friday and anticipate fairly similar
conditions again on Friday with winds a touch weaker owing to a
slightly weaker gradient.
Uncertainty in forecast details increases on Saturday mainly due
to a low amplitude shortwave approaching the base of the main
upper trough. Ensemble guidance shows bimodal distribution for
temps due to timing differences with the aforementioned shortwave.
A brief window of warm air advection occurs ahead of the wave and
faster guidance has this warmup occuring mainly Friday night with
cooler air spreading in faster during the day Saturday. The
faster/cooler scenario would result in highs mainly in the
50s/lower 60s again Saturday while the slower/warmer solutions
favor highs in the 60s/lower 70s for most of the area. Finally,
precip is not favored with this wave but couldn`t completely rule
out a few sprinkles or light showers. Roughly 95% of the Grand
Ensemble members have zero QPF or very light (less than a tenth of
an inch) with forecast soundings showing very dry conditions
lingering below roughly 750mb the would favor virga.
Sunday through Tuesday of next week will see central Illinois just
upstream of the upper trough that persists over the Great Lakes
through this time frame. Temperatures will continue to run on the
cooler side with precip favored just to our north and northeast
closer to the upper trough.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
A series of disturbances will continue to bring scattered showers
into late this evening, while a cold front approaches from the
west. Surface winds will be somewhat variable due to these
disturbances, especially for the the I-72 terminals which look
like they will be in the track of a surface low. Nevertheless,
strong winds at the 2000 ft AGL level will produce low level wind
shear as a low level jet develops. Conditions look to be primarily
VFR until the cold front arrives Wednesday morning, producing a
band of showers with MVFR cigs and vsbys. Behind the front, a
period of MVFR cigs will continue for a few hours, with winds
shifting from southerly to westerly or northwesterly.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...37
SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...Deubelbeiss
LONG TERM...Deubelbeiss
AVIATION...37
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
634 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
A broken band of showers persists from west central IL through
central MO into southwest MO this afternoon. These are occurring
within the southwesterly LLJ aided by a series of weak vort maxes
in the mid-level flow. Present indications are this activity will
gradually wane and shift to the northeast through the late
afternoon and early evening. Attention then turns to the next good
threat of showers and storms. Overall the thinking has not
changed much and the expectation is that showers and scattered
storms will develop/spread into the northeast and central MO and
west central IL in the 09-12z time frame. This activity will be
occurring in the warm sector well ahead of the advancing cold
front, in response to large scale forcing associated with a
digging upper trof and also forcing via a southwesterly LLJ. While
the severe weather threat with this activity is not zero, present
indications are that is low. Any storms will be elevated and the
latest RAP has MUCAPE in the 500- 1000 J/KG range with some
steeper mid level lapse rates suggesting an isolated strong-severe
storm with hail and gusty winds is not out of the question.
The band of pre-frontal showers is expected to move quickly
southeastward on Wednesday morning in response to the progressive
digging upper trof and shifting of the core of the LLJ, exiting the
CWA by midday. Instability is expected to wane with time during the
morning into the afternoon, although could boost back up during the
afternoon with SCAPE of 500+ along/ahead of the cold front as it
moves into and through southeast MO and southwest IL during the
afternoon. Thus a few storms could form along the front in a narrow
window around 18-21z before the front exits.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Another second and more substantial cold front will move through
the area on Wednesday night. There could be some sprinkles across
parts of northeast MO and west central IL in the evening but the
threat of measurable rain appears rather low. Thursday will be a
cooler and windy day. Soundings indicate deep mixing over 7000
feet which will aid in momentum transport supporting west-
northwest winds gusting to 30+ mph. The mixing should also drop
dew points into the mid-upper 20s. The resulting relative humidity
will drop rather low in the afternoon, in the low-mid 20s. The
gusty winds and low RH has prompted some fire danger concerns.
Although todays rain and tomorrows will likely boost 10 hour
fuels, the fine 1 hour fuels like grasses should dry out quickly.
Given these anticipated conditions we will be messaging elevated
fire danger.
A large scale blocking pattern over the western CONUS will keep a
deep longwave trof anchored across eastern NOAM the later part of
this week and into next week. That said there are notable
differences in the exact position of the trof axis and overall depth
of the trof in response to short waves rotating/digging through the
mean trof. The cluster analysis shows quite a bit of variability in
the ensemble membership with height differences across parts of the
area +/- 100 decameters. There seems to be some consensus we will
see a cold front passage late Friday night into Saturday with cooler
temps on Sunday. There is also a growing signal of much cooler
weather Monday into Tuesday with frost/freeze potential on
Tuesday morning.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
VFR flight conditions will prevail outside of the showers and
thunderstorms expected during the TAF period.
Light rain continues to move across the area this evening but
should stay out of the terminals. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will move through the region overnight and into
tomorrow morning, but uncertainty in the location of thunderstorms
keeps the mention in the TAF to VCTS. MVFR conditions are expected
with the precipitation as rain drops the visibility to near 5
miles. A cold front will move through behind the showers and
thunderstorms, and along the front MVFR ceilings are possible,
though confidence isn`t high enough to mention in the TAFs at this
point. Gusty southerly winds will continue overnight, becoming
west-northwest during the morning and remaining strong and gusty.
MRM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Elevated fire danger on Thursday afternoon.
Soundings indicate deep mixing over 7000 feet will occur on
Thursday afternoon which will aid in momentum transport
supporting west-northwest winds gusting to 30+ mph. The mixing
should also drop dew points into the mid-upper 20s. The resulting
relative humidity will drop rather low in the afternoon, in the
low-mid 20s. The gusty winds and low RH has prompted fire danger
concerns. Although todays rain and tomorrows will likely boost 10
hour fuels, the fine 1 hour fuels like grasses should dry out
quickly. Given these anticipated conditions we will be messaging
elevated fire danger.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
958 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Southwest flow tonight is allowing temperatures to stay up with
high cloudiness increasing ahead of the incoming trough. The upper
trough is moving into the southern plains and mid mississippi
valley this evening. Showers are beginning to develop across the
lower Ohio Valley and also to the southwest over central Alabama
into central Georgia at this time. The moisture will gradually
increase overnight with a few showers developing or moving into
the southern plateau and southwest North Carolina before morning.
Temperatures are only expected to drop about 5 to 7 more degrees
from the 9 pm temperatures that were in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Have updated hourly temperatures and dew points and increased
cloud cover overnight. Otherwise no other changes to forecast.
Will update text forecast because of some changes to sky cover and
slight rain chances south. Update out soon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Key Messages:
1. Wednesday will be warm and breezy. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm in the afternoon is possible.
2. Wednesday night showers and thunderstorms, chance for strong
storms over the Plateau counties.
Discussion:
Milder weather tonight as southwesterly flow ahead of the incoming
trough keeps temperatures warmer than they have been. Speaking of
the trough, a large synoptic trough coming into the Northern Plains
now will push into the Great Lakes area going through Wednesday,
dragging a cold front south to pass through late overnight Wednesday
into Thursday morning. Wednesday afternoon will be warm and breezy,
with an isolated chance of a shower or thunderstorm. The main
threat, if there is to be any, will be in the overnight period with
the approach of a probably weakening line of thunderstorms from the
west. Currently the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk
shaved to our most western counties along the Plateau. Biggest risk
is an isolated chance of a transient organized storm or two becoming
briefly severe. Poor dynamics and widespread cloud cover will act
to dampen overall potential with this event.
12z HRRR guidance shows one possible scenario that ends up being
drier for our area than both GEFS and Euro Means otherwise suggest:
an approaching line of thunderstorms over the Plateau that falls
apart as it enters the Tennessee Valley. In an area thirsting for
rain, the wetter the better. The ensemble means were quarter to around
a half inch near area wide for the event, whereas the HRRR
guidance was running at best half as much.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Key Messages:
1. Drier weather, with seasonally cool conditions Thursday and
Friday. Warmer but still dry on Saturday.
2. Another front approaches late this week with additional showers
possible but confidence on timing of this front is low.
3. Drier and cooler next week.
Discussion:
On Thursday, broad mid/upper level cyclonic flow will encompass much
of eastern CONUS. Westerly to northwest flow behind the cold front
will usher in much drier air across the region. At the surface high
pressure will settle across southern Canada, and the northern US.
With much drier air in place, dry and mostly clear skies can be
expected Thursday through Saturday. Models soundings depict deep
mixing possible Friday resulting in lower dewpoints, and gusty
winds. Afternoon dewpoints could dip into the upper 20`s to lower
30`s which would result in low RH`s. Temperatures near to below
normal Thursday and Friday will quickly rebound to above normal on
Saturday as winds shift toward the south. With an upper low centered
across the Hudson Bay region, several shortwave will move across the
Ohio valley sending a cold front into the area sometime Sunday into
Monday. Confidence on timing of this front is still low but slight
chance to chance PoPs will occur along and ahead of this front.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to indicate a cooler
airmass will settle into the region Monday and Tuesday as high
pressure settles across the plains. Temperatures below normal are
expected with dry weather continuing.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Low clouds expected to come in to CHA late tonight and remain until
early afternoon Wednesday. High level cloudiness will persist at
the other sites. Other terminals should have scattered high level
cloudiness. Winds will pick up in the afternoon at the terminals
Showers should move in to CHA and TYS late in the afternoon with a
chance of thunderstorms at CHA late. Will just have prob30 group
for TRI site late Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 77 63 75 / 10 60 90 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 79 61 73 / 0 30 90 20
Oak Ridge, TN 54 78 61 73 / 0 30 90 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 76 58 70 / 0 20 90 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wellington/TD
LONG TERM....Diegan
AVIATION...TD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
727 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Showers with a couple rumbles of thunder already developing along
the cold front in northeast NE. Thus, have updated Pops to
mention an earlier start time and farther northwestern location,
and also have increased pops to 60-70% by 2-4z along/south of I80.
Most recent runs of the HRRR model seem to be latching onto this.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Key Messages:
- Fire weather concerns through at least Thursday.
- Gusty northwest winds Wednesday and Thursday.
- Cooler through the remainder of the week.
Main forecast challenge over the next several days will be fire
weather concerns with the pattern favorable for gusty northwest
winds and dry air working in behind a cold front that will pass
through this evening. Early afternoon analysis placed the front
from northeast ND, southwestward through central SD, and westward
into WY. A pre-frontal trough was noted across the NE panhandle,
where winds had become northwesterly, but temperatures remained
20+ degrees warmer than those behind the front. Closer to home,
observations across the forecast area showed temperatures in the
upper 70s to mid 80s with southwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph in
many locations. The good news from a fire weather perspective was
that RH values had managed to stay above 30 percent at most
locations, perhaps decreasing fire weather concerns a bit, though
that could quickly change over the next few hours in parts of
northeast NE, especially as the front and wind shift come through.
Otherwise, heading into this evening and overnight, CAMs are in
good agreement of thunderstorm development ahead of the front,
though still differ a fair amount on timing, and therefore
placement. Greatest chances will extend from far southeast NE into
far southwest IA, and increase going farther southeast (and out
of the forecast area). If storms develop earlier (7-8 PM or so),
they could develop as far north as a Columbus to Sioux City line.
The later solutions (2-3 AM) would suggest closer to Falls City.
Again, the correct solution probably lies somewhere in the middle.
As far as storm strength, HREF guidance suggests pockets of 1500
J/kg of MUCAPE in place ahead of the front this evening, though
strongest deep layer shear will lag behind the front, leading to
very little in the way of storm organization. As it stands, think
we`ll see a narrow line to broken line of storms with individual
cells occasionally strengthening enough to produce up to quarter
sized hail and perhaps some gusty winds as they bring the stronger
winds aloft down to the surface. Low level shear does look to be
rather strong, with hodographs showing some decent curvature, but
thinking it will be tough to get any surface based convection that
could "use" that shear given expected later timing.
Behind the front, expect gusty northwesterly to westerly winds
(gusts of 30 to 40+ mph per EPS means) to persist into Friday and
usher in plenty of dry air. Given the westerly component of winds
(and fairly deep mixing), also expect temperatures to be on the
warmer side of guidance. As a result, RH values are expected to
hover around the 20 percent mark in many locations at least
Wednesday and Thursday. Therefore, issued a Fire Weather Watch for
most of the area both days. Regardless of RH values, winds will
be strong enough to make any fire that does start rather difficult
to contain.
We`ll remain under northwesterly flow aloft as a cutoff low spins
just northwest of the Great Lakes into the weekend setting us up
for continued breezy (though not quite as strong) and fall-like
weather. Expect temperatures to generally top out in the 60s and
70s with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. The coldest night
currently looks to be Friday night, with lows Saturday morning
ranging from the lower 30s in west-central IA to the mid and upper
30s elsewhere. Currently have a dry forecast going, though
various ensemble members do show potential for spotty light precip
associated with various bits of shortwave energy rounding the
back side of the aforementioned cutoff low. However, difficult to
pinpoint a time given large spread in guidance. Also, with dry air
in place, amounts would likely be quite low if any precip were to
occur.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022
Shower/Thunderstorm chances are the initial concern, and then
winds through the period. Thunderstorms will be possible at
KOMA/KLNK 03-05, with showers until about 09-10z. Any storms that
develop will likely be east of the KOFK location. Southwest winds
at 12 to 26 knots at TAF issuance, but becoming northwest through
the period by 09-10z, when winds diminish to less than 7 knots.
Northwest winds increase again by 16-17z with gusts 28 to 30 knots
tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-016-030.
IA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-090.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-090.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DeWald
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...DeWald