Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/10/22


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
843 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures with cloudy skies and chance of light rain through tomorrow. Temperatures moderate through midweek. The next chance for significant rain will come late Wednesday into Thursday as a fairly robust cold front approaches the area. Much cooler temperatures then for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Well, some weather is actually going on at the moment. As expected, stratocumulus hung around most of the day today on the eastern side of a weak low-level trough centered over Georgia. Isentropic flow has been prevalent across the region, and has coincided with southeasterly 925 hPa flow to bring an uptick in moisture to the region. We`re not talking about anything crazy, but PWs on the order of around 1" are present across the southern FA. Guidance forecasts 1.0"-1.2" PWs to overspread most of the area overnight as isentropic lift becomes more favorable and onshore flow continues. GFS/NAM forecasts on the 290-295K surface indicate that efficient isentropic flow is already ongoing and will strengthen through the night, continuing to build clouds northward across the central and eastern FA. This is already resulting in some shower activity just south of Barnwell/Bamberg counties, and this should only increase over the next few hours. The HRRR and HREF are doing a great job with the placement of precip right now and so I leaned into those models at this point. Showers are expected to primarily develop north and east of a line from Barnwell Co. to Newberry Co. This will likely hold lows in these areas pretty warm, and I`m only forecasting temps to fall into the 56-60F range here. Outside of this (western Midlands and northwestern CSRA), clouds may be more broken, resulting in a bit lower temperature forecast overnight. Overall, looks like it`ll be a light precip event where it does happen, but don`t be surprised if you wake up in the morning with some rain having occurred. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Clouds hung on a bit longer today than expected and with models trending towards increasing isentropic lift over the area Monday and forecast soundings indicating in situ wedging developing, have lowered temperatures. Highs across the area will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. SREF guidance has continued to trend towards higher chances for rain especially early Monday morning. Rainfall amounts will remain low and will likely not even measure at most locations but have kept at least slight chance pops through morning. Clouds may linger into Monday night as a shortwave pushes into the area which will keep lows around the mid 50s. Tuesday once again went a bit below the blended guidance, although highs will be in the low to mid 70s. Likely another somewhat cloudy start with a bit of a mixed signal as to whether or not isentropic lift persists into the day but unlike Monday, heights will be rising with no discernible shortwave in the area so more likely to see improvement into the afternoon. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper trough digs into the central US midweek with increasing moisture as SW flow strengthens over the area. Ensemble members continue to support a bit earlier in the timing of the cold front moving into the area late Wednesday night into early Thursday. Better consensus among both GEFS and EC ensemble members in the front being fairly quick moving which will limit rainfall amounts somewhat, although with PWATs above normal, ensemble members generally support rainfall amounts between a half inch to an inch. NAEFS 850mb heights will be below the 10th percentile behind the front for the end of the week into the weekend with temperatures below average, moderating into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR conditions expected through much of the forecast period, with some IFR cigs possible around dawn Monday. A surface trough located across eastern GA will strengthen overnight as an upper trough approaches. Increasing isentropic lift and onshore flow will continue to support low clouds with MVFR cigs expected to develop at all terminals by 06z-08z and continue through much of Monday. Some weak showers may move north to impact OGB and possibly CAE/CUB but for now will only keep a mention at OGB later tonight. Some IFR cigs also possible at OGB around dawn but confidence is limited so kept that in a tempo group 11z-15z. Winds will generally be from the northeast through the period at or below 6 knots. As the upper trough passes on Monday, conditions should improve from the west and expect cigs to return to VFR after 18z and a bit later at OGB. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in strato cu Monday evening and some typical ground fog at OGB/AGS each morning. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
902 PM PDT Sun Oct 9 2022 .UPDATE...The forecast was updated this evening to update the expected sky cover through Tuesday to reflect the new data. This includes an expected relatively brief, late night into early morning intrusion of the coast and coastal valley stratus into much of the Umpqua Valley. Then, a thicker, more extensive marine layer accompanying a dry front Monday night. This is before near shore winds become northeast on Tuesday and the air mass begins a renewed drying trend. Warmer weather, resembling our current conditions with clear but hazy/smoky skies inland, will follow at mid-week through next weekend. Meantime, there will be more variation in daily coastal stratus coverage...with the greatest coverage during the night and morning hours at the coast from Cape Blanco northward. && .AVIATION...19/00Z TAFs...Over the coastal waters, along the coast, and in the coastal valleys...Widespread IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys will spread into the coastal valleys tonight. The lower conditions will then persist into Monday morning. In the Umpqua Basin...Areas of IFR cigs/vsbys will return by early Monday morning, clearing to VFR in the late morning. Over the remainder of the area...VFR conditions will persist into Monday morning, except for some MVFR vsbys in haze and smoke. && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM Sunday 9 October 2022...A thermal trough near the coast will strengthen Monday then weaken on Wednesday. This will result in a period of gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas across the waters Monday through early Wednesday. The highest winds and seas will be south of Cape Blanco, peaking in the afternoons and evenings. Seas are expected to become swell dominated late Wednesday. Winds may increase again on Friday with the potential for additional steep seas across the waters. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 226 PM PDT Sun Oct 9 2022/ DISCUSSION... Smoke and haze is the main headline for today as the Cedar Creek Fire continues to burn. Satellite shows the main smoke plume in Lane County, although models do anticipate a southerly trajectory in that smoke by later this evening into tonight as the overall wind flow turns more northerly. By tonight, fog and low stratus will cover sections of the coast and sections of the Umpqua Basin. Although it`s not the latest tip of the spear in science, the old MET and MAV bulletins are showing fog(FG) for KRBG, KOTH and KBOK. When this happens, we usually see some thicker fog dropping visibilities down to 1/4 a mile at times. The upper level pattern also makes sense here as high pressure is building later into tonight, which will help compress the boundary layer, increase the inversion strength and limit mixing low level mixing. All of these features are signs of dense fog during the cooler season in the valleys. It looks like the Rogue, Illinois and Applegate valleys will avoid the fog for now. By sunrise, haze and smoke will still remain across out vast region. The northerly flow appears to increase ahead of the next approaching upper level trough. We`ll still see fresh smoke and haze from the Cedar Creek Fire filter into the region. There is a little hope here as a dry cold front is expected to move through sometime Monday night. This should help mix the atmosphere and clear out some of this lingering smoke and haze. Unfortunately, fresh smoke from the fire Monday evening into Tuesday is expected to build into Klamath and Lake Counties based on the latest HRRR Smoke run. Beyond Monday, abnormally warm temperatures and high pressure will become the main focus. These high temperatures remain 15 degrees warmer than normal. We`re supposed to be in the mid 70`s for highs here in Medford around this time of year. Along the coast, temperatures will be relatively cooler on the days without offshore flow. The last topic worth discussing is the potential for some rain well into the extended forecast around the 18th or so. About 35 percent of the ensemble members are bringing light precipitation to the region around that time. If it does rain, it will likely be pretty light according to the ensemble data. -Smith && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. && $$ DW/CC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
941 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 921 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Dry weather conditions prevail across the region tonight through Tuesday. A breakdown of low to mid level ridging will allow for southeasterly to southerly low to mid level flow to become dominant by Tuesday signifying a warmer, moister day for Tuesday. Before this, a very dry, cool airmass remains over the region for tonight into Monday night. Expect overnight lows tonight to be in the middle to upper 40`s inland and lower 50`s nearer the coast. Highs Monday will top out in the upper 70`s to lower 80`s. Lows Monday night will be slightly warmer, with upper 40`s inland and lower to locally middle 50`s elsewhere. Tuesday will be warmer with highs in the lower to middle 80`s. Only notable adjustments tonight were to lower dewpoints for Monday, especially east of the I-65 corridor. A very dry airmass continues to advect into the area at the 925 to 850mb level around the 850mb ridge, and this is supported via upstream observed 00z soundings this evening of a pocket of dry air aloft between the 850 and 750mb layer. Given this, a blend of the HRRR (which seems to have a better handle on the dry layer) and NBM dewpoints seemed reasonable for Monday yielding minimum relative humidity values in the 15 to 25% range, lowest east of the I-65 corridor. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 54 83 55 85 66 83 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 10 60 50 30 Pensacola 59 83 60 84 69 81 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 60 30 Destin 61 84 64 84 70 82 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 60 40 Evergreen 49 81 50 86 61 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 60 60 30 Waynesboro 51 78 51 82 58 81 63 79 / 0 0 0 0 10 60 40 20 Camden 49 77 50 83 59 82 63 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 50 50 30 Crestview 52 82 54 86 63 82 66 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 60 60 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
147 PM PDT Sun Oct 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure, centered over Sonora Mexico, will continue a moist and unstable easterly flow over Southern California this afternoon, with more scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop over the mountains and track westward into the valleys. Another upper- level low will drop south along the California Coast on Monday to replace the low over northwest Mexico. This looks to come close enough to set up more rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday, most likely in the afternoons and evenings. Some drying is possible later in the work week, but warmer weather is looking less likely now as a cut-off low is forecast to form near Southern California toward the end of the week with even showers possible by next weekend. .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Forecast Highlights: * Thunderstorm coverage and intensity increases Monday and Tuesday * Locally heavy rainfall in the mountains and into the valleys An upper low continues to be situated over northwestern Mexico, but there is an upper ridge nudging into the area from the north this afternoon. This is leading to an overall subsidence regime across the region as seen in Omega/Q-vector fields. Despite this, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, but am expecting less coverage and intensity compared to yesterday. The isolated cells will develop over the mountains and valleys, but may struggle to get going due to the aforementioned subsidence. Another upper low will be diving southward off the California coast moving southward Monday through Tuesday. Moisture is already in place and as this moves into the region, instability will increase along with synoptic scale lift. This is expected to lead to more active thunderstorm days both Monday and Tuesday. The thunderstorms will focus over the mountains and valleys/foothills with a threat of locally heavy rainfall. Local WRF shows rainfall rates in the 0.50-1.00"/hr over parts of the mountains Monday afternoon and over the mountains with cell movement into the inland valleys on Tuesday and just as heavy. This would pose a localized flash flood risk and will be monitored closely. HRRR shows much less activity on Monday, but we`ll see if we see an uptick in subsequent runs. The forecast for the later half of the week is uncertain as the weather will be dictated by the movement and postilion of the upper low. Some guidance is more progressive, taking the low across and east of our region by the weekend. However, other guidance is slows and this could keep rain chances around into next weekend. Followed NBM for the extended due to the high uncertainty. Temperatures throughout the week will be within 5 degrees of climo with a cooling trend possible next weekend. && .AVIATION... 092000Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of low clouds with bases 1000-1500 feet MSL will continue this afternoon within 3 miles of the coast. through 18Z-20Z within 15 miles of the coast with areas of BKN low clouds continuing near the immediate coast this afternoon. There is a slight chance of TSRA in the valleys this afternoon with bases 10000 ft MSL and tops to 35000 ft MSL, strong up/downdrafts, and local gusty erratic winds. Stratus will expand along the coast 02Z- 06Z Mon spread up to 25 miles inland by 12Z Mon with bases 600-1000 ft MSL and tops to 1500 ft MSL. Local vis will be 0-3 miles in the coastal valleys and some higher coastal terrain, with areas of terrain obscured. Clearing will occur 17Z-20Z Mon with TSRA possible Mon afternoon. Mountains/Deserts...ISOLD/SCT TSRA will occur this afternoon with bases around 10000 ft MSL and tops to 35000 ft MSL. Strong up/downdrafts will be likely near TSRA and local gusty erratic winds will be possible. TSRA will likely be more numerous Monday afternoon. Otherwise, SCT clouds above 10,000 ft MSL and unrestricted vis will prevail through Monday. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine weather is expected through tonight. There is a small (10-20 percent) chance of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday over the coastal waters, with local gusty surface winds, short- period seas and cloud-to-water lightning. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Gregoria AVIATION/MARINE...Brotherton