Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/10/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
843 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures with cloudy skies and chance of light
rain through tomorrow. Temperatures moderate through midweek. The
next chance for significant rain will come late Wednesday into
Thursday as a fairly robust cold front approaches the area. Much
cooler temperatures then for next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Well, some weather is actually going on at the moment. As expected,
stratocumulus hung around most of the day today on the eastern side
of a weak low-level trough centered over Georgia. Isentropic flow
has been prevalent across the region, and has coincided with
southeasterly 925 hPa flow to bring an uptick in moisture to the
region. We`re not talking about anything crazy, but PWs on the order
of around 1" are present across the southern FA. Guidance forecasts
1.0"-1.2" PWs to overspread most of the area overnight as isentropic
lift becomes more favorable and onshore flow continues. GFS/NAM
forecasts on the 290-295K surface indicate that efficient isentropic
flow is already ongoing and will strengthen through the night,
continuing to build clouds northward across the central and eastern
FA. This is already resulting in some shower activity just south of
Barnwell/Bamberg counties, and this should only increase over the
next few hours. The HRRR and HREF are doing a great job with the
placement of precip right now and so I leaned into those models at
this point. Showers are expected to primarily develop north and east
of a line from Barnwell Co. to Newberry Co. This will likely hold
lows in these areas pretty warm, and I`m only forecasting temps to
fall into the 56-60F range here. Outside of this (western Midlands
and northwestern CSRA), clouds may be more broken, resulting in a
bit lower temperature forecast overnight. Overall, looks like it`ll
be a light precip event where it does happen, but don`t be surprised
if you wake up in the morning with some rain having occurred.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds hung on a bit longer today than expected and with models
trending towards increasing isentropic lift over the area Monday and
forecast soundings indicating in situ wedging developing, have
lowered temperatures. Highs across the area will be in the upper 60s
to low 70s. SREF guidance has continued to trend towards higher
chances for rain especially early Monday morning. Rainfall amounts
will remain low and will likely not even measure at most locations
but have kept at least slight chance pops through morning. Clouds
may linger into Monday night as a shortwave pushes into the
area which will keep lows around the mid 50s.
Tuesday once again went a bit below the blended guidance, although
highs will be in the low to mid 70s. Likely another somewhat cloudy
start with a bit of a mixed signal as to whether or not isentropic
lift persists into the day but unlike Monday, heights will be rising
with no discernible shortwave in the area so more likely to see
improvement into the afternoon. Low temperatures in the mid to upper
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper trough digs into the central US midweek with increasing
moisture as SW flow strengthens over the area. Ensemble members
continue to support a bit earlier in the timing of the cold
front moving into the area late Wednesday night into early
Thursday. Better consensus among both GEFS and EC ensemble
members in the front being fairly quick moving which will limit
rainfall amounts somewhat, although with PWATs above normal,
ensemble members generally support rainfall amounts between a
half inch to an inch. NAEFS 850mb heights will be below the 10th
percentile behind the front for the end of the week into the
weekend with temperatures below average, moderating into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR conditions expected through much of the forecast period,
with some IFR cigs possible around dawn Monday.
A surface trough located across eastern GA will strengthen
overnight as an upper trough approaches. Increasing isentropic
lift and onshore flow will continue to support low clouds with
MVFR cigs expected to develop at all terminals by 06z-08z and
continue through much of Monday. Some weak showers may move
north to impact OGB and possibly CAE/CUB but for now will only
keep a mention at OGB later tonight. Some IFR cigs also possible
at OGB around dawn but confidence is limited so kept that in a
tempo group 11z-15z. Winds will generally be from the northeast
through the period at or below 6 knots.
As the upper trough passes on Monday, conditions should improve
from the west and expect cigs to return to VFR after 18z and a
bit later at OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in strato cu
Monday evening and some typical ground fog at OGB/AGS each
morning.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
902 PM PDT Sun Oct 9 2022
.UPDATE...The forecast was updated this evening to update the
expected sky cover through Tuesday to reflect the new data.
This includes an expected relatively brief, late night into early
morning intrusion of the coast and coastal valley stratus into
much of the Umpqua Valley. Then, a thicker, more extensive marine
layer accompanying a dry front Monday night. This is before near
shore winds become northeast on Tuesday and the air mass begins a
renewed drying trend. Warmer weather, resembling our current
conditions with clear but hazy/smoky skies inland, will follow at
mid-week through next weekend. Meantime, there will be more
variation in daily coastal stratus coverage...with the greatest
coverage during the night and morning hours at the coast from Cape
Blanco northward.
&&
.AVIATION...19/00Z TAFs...Over the coastal waters, along the coast,
and in the coastal valleys...Widespread IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys will
spread into the coastal valleys tonight. The lower conditions will
then persist into Monday morning. In the Umpqua Basin...Areas of IFR
cigs/vsbys will return by early Monday morning, clearing to VFR in
the late morning. Over the remainder of the area...VFR conditions
will persist into Monday morning, except for some MVFR vsbys in haze
and smoke.
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM Sunday 9 October 2022...A thermal trough
near the coast will strengthen Monday then weaken on Wednesday. This
will result in a period of gusty north winds and steep to very steep
seas across the waters Monday through early Wednesday. The highest
winds and seas will be south of Cape Blanco, peaking in the
afternoons and evenings. Seas are expected to become swell dominated
late Wednesday. Winds may increase again on Friday with the
potential for additional steep seas across the waters.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 226 PM PDT Sun Oct 9 2022/
DISCUSSION...
Smoke and haze is the main headline for today as the Cedar Creek
Fire continues to burn. Satellite shows the main smoke plume in
Lane County, although models do anticipate a southerly trajectory
in that smoke by later this evening into tonight as the overall
wind flow turns more northerly.
By tonight, fog and low stratus will cover sections of the coast
and sections of the Umpqua Basin. Although it`s not the latest tip
of the spear in science, the old MET and MAV bulletins are showing
fog(FG) for KRBG, KOTH and KBOK. When this happens, we usually
see some thicker fog dropping visibilities down to 1/4 a mile at
times. The upper level pattern also makes sense here as high
pressure is building later into tonight, which will help compress
the boundary layer, increase the inversion strength and limit
mixing low level mixing. All of these features are signs of dense
fog during the cooler season in the valleys. It looks like the
Rogue, Illinois and Applegate valleys will avoid the fog for now.
By sunrise, haze and smoke will still remain across out vast
region. The northerly flow appears to increase ahead of the next
approaching upper level trough. We`ll still see fresh smoke and
haze from the Cedar Creek Fire filter into the region. There is a
little hope here as a dry cold front is expected to move through
sometime Monday night. This should help mix the atmosphere and
clear out some of this lingering smoke and haze. Unfortunately,
fresh smoke from the fire Monday evening into Tuesday is expected
to build into Klamath and Lake Counties based on the latest HRRR
Smoke run.
Beyond Monday, abnormally warm temperatures and high pressure will
become the main focus. These high temperatures remain 15 degrees
warmer than normal. We`re supposed to be in the mid 70`s for highs
here in Medford around this time of year. Along the coast,
temperatures will be relatively cooler on the days without
offshore flow.
The last topic worth discussing is the potential for some rain
well into the extended forecast around the 18th or so. About 35
percent of the ensemble members are bringing light precipitation
to the region around that time. If it does rain, it will likely be
pretty light according to the ensemble data. -Smith
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to
11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday
for PZZ356-376.
&&
$$
DW/CC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
941 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 921 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022
Dry weather conditions prevail across the region tonight through
Tuesday. A breakdown of low to mid level ridging will allow for
southeasterly to southerly low to mid level flow to become
dominant by Tuesday signifying a warmer, moister day for Tuesday.
Before this, a very dry, cool airmass remains over the region for
tonight into Monday night. Expect overnight lows tonight to be in
the middle to upper 40`s inland and lower 50`s nearer the coast.
Highs Monday will top out in the upper 70`s to lower 80`s. Lows
Monday night will be slightly warmer, with upper 40`s inland and
lower to locally middle 50`s elsewhere. Tuesday will be warmer
with highs in the lower to middle 80`s.
Only notable adjustments tonight were to lower dewpoints for
Monday, especially east of the I-65 corridor. A very dry airmass
continues to advect into the area at the 925 to 850mb level around
the 850mb ridge, and this is supported via upstream observed 00z
soundings this evening of a pocket of dry air aloft between the
850 and 750mb layer. Given this, a blend of the HRRR (which seems
to have a better handle on the dry layer) and NBM dewpoints
seemed reasonable for Monday yielding minimum relative humidity
values in the 15 to 25% range, lowest east of the I-65 corridor.
MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 54 83 55 85 66 83 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 10 60 50 30
Pensacola 59 83 60 84 69 81 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 60 30
Destin 61 84 64 84 70 82 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 60 40
Evergreen 49 81 50 86 61 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 60 60 30
Waynesboro 51 78 51 82 58 81 63 79 / 0 0 0 0 10 60 40 20
Camden 49 77 50 83 59 82 63 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 50 50 30
Crestview 52 82 54 86 63 82 66 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 60 60 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
147 PM PDT Sun Oct 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure, centered over Sonora Mexico, will continue a moist and
unstable easterly flow over Southern California this afternoon,
with more scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop
over the mountains and track westward into the valleys. Another
upper- level low will drop south along the California Coast on
Monday to replace the low over northwest Mexico. This looks to
come close enough to set up more rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday, most likely in the afternoons and
evenings. Some drying is possible later in the work week, but
warmer weather is looking less likely now as a cut-off low is
forecast to form near Southern California toward the end of the
week with even showers possible by next weekend.
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Forecast Highlights:
* Thunderstorm coverage and intensity increases Monday and Tuesday
* Locally heavy rainfall in the mountains and into the valleys
An upper low continues to be situated over northwestern Mexico,
but there is an upper ridge nudging into the area from the north
this afternoon. This is leading to an overall subsidence regime
across the region as seen in Omega/Q-vector fields. Despite this,
isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this
afternoon, but am expecting less coverage and intensity compared
to yesterday. The isolated cells will develop over the mountains
and valleys, but may struggle to get going due to the
aforementioned subsidence.
Another upper low will be diving southward off the California
coast moving southward Monday through Tuesday. Moisture is already
in place and as this moves into the region, instability will
increase along with synoptic scale lift. This is expected to lead
to more active thunderstorm days both Monday and Tuesday. The
thunderstorms will focus over the mountains and valleys/foothills
with a threat of locally heavy rainfall. Local WRF shows rainfall
rates in the 0.50-1.00"/hr over parts of the mountains Monday
afternoon and over the mountains with cell movement into the
inland valleys on Tuesday and just as heavy. This would pose a
localized flash flood risk and will be monitored closely. HRRR
shows much less activity on Monday, but we`ll see if we see an
uptick in subsequent runs.
The forecast for the later half of the week is uncertain as the
weather will be dictated by the movement and postilion of the
upper low. Some guidance is more progressive, taking the low
across and east of our region by the weekend. However, other
guidance is slows and this could keep rain chances around into
next weekend. Followed NBM for the extended due to the high
uncertainty.
Temperatures throughout the week will be within 5 degrees of
climo with a cooling trend possible next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
092000Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of low clouds with bases
1000-1500 feet MSL will continue this afternoon within 3 miles of
the coast. through 18Z-20Z within 15 miles of the coast with areas
of BKN low clouds continuing near the immediate coast this
afternoon. There is a slight chance of TSRA in the valleys this
afternoon with bases 10000 ft MSL and tops to 35000 ft MSL, strong
up/downdrafts, and local gusty erratic winds. Stratus will expand
along the coast 02Z- 06Z Mon spread up to 25 miles inland by 12Z
Mon with bases 600-1000 ft MSL and tops to 1500 ft MSL. Local vis
will be 0-3 miles in the coastal valleys and some higher coastal
terrain, with areas of terrain obscured. Clearing will occur
17Z-20Z Mon with TSRA possible Mon afternoon.
Mountains/Deserts...ISOLD/SCT TSRA will occur this afternoon with
bases around 10000 ft MSL and tops to 35000 ft MSL. Strong
up/downdrafts will be likely near TSRA and local gusty erratic winds
will be possible. TSRA will likely be more numerous Monday
afternoon. Otherwise, SCT clouds above 10,000 ft MSL and
unrestricted vis will prevail through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through tonight. There is a
small (10-20 percent) chance of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday
over the coastal waters, with local gusty surface winds, short-
period seas and cloud-to-water lightning.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Gregoria
AVIATION/MARINE...Brotherton