Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/09/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
529 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1228 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022 Rain and storm chances will continue through Monday with temperatures well below the seasonal normal. By Tuesday, rain chances are expected to decrease with slightly warmer temperatures. The dry weather continues on Wednesday before slight chances of rain return to the forecast for the end of next work week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1228 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022 Current satellite depicts low clouds clinging to the northern counties, while widespread CU are building in the southern counties (near the international border). Surface dew points have remain around 50 (give or take a few degrees) as the deep moisture persists for the short term period. The upper level low continues to spin over southeast AZ this afternoon, moving slightly east into western NM overnight tonight. This keeps healthy divergence aloft, and the mid levels cool. The 18Z HRRR and other short range models keep around 500-1300 J/KG of instability around the CWA, with increasing amount`s over northern MX (south of the NM Bootheel). With ample sunshine, convection is beginning to initiate south of and near the NM Bootheel. This convection will create a shortwave in the upper level low`s flow, which will rotate north near the international border around 6 pm tonight. This added lift will help sustain convection as it moves into the CWA later this evening. The window for this band of rain and storms for Hidalgo, Luna, Dona Ana, Hudspeth and El Paso counties will be from 6 pm through midnight. The band will become fragmented as it moves northward, with widespread light rain showers and scattered convection reaching Sierra, Grant, and Otero counties after midnight. CAM`s depict the heaviest rain stay in motion tonight, however soils are already pretty saturated (with already seeing 1-4 inches over most of the CWA in the past 24 hours). Flooding will be a concern for where those convective cells are able to form. Models are showing uncertainty with the intensity of the band as it moves into the CWA, with run to run differences on precipitation amounts. With that said, there is high confidence in most lowland locations seeing 0.25-0.5 overnight as the band of rain moves through. Embedded convection in some areas could drop up to 1- 2 inches tonight. Higher terrain will most likely see accumulations of 0.5-1 inches higher amounts near the tallest peaks. Sunday, rain and low clouds will slowly move out of the northern areas by noon. There is a good chance of seeing patchy fog in the Sacramento Mountains again early Sunday morning and the rain clears out. Mostly cloudy skies will last through the early afternoon for most of the area, with a few places near the international border seeing some sunshine poke through. The upper level low begins to open extending cooler mid level temps across most of the CWA. The best upper level divergence now exists over El Paso, Otero, and Hudspeth counties. Scattered convection will begin to develop over the area, with a larger band forming near the US/MX border in Hudsepth county. With better lift in areas east of the Rio Grande valley, storms will have a better chance there Monday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1228 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022 Overall, not a lot of change in the long term forecast compared to previous discussions, with continued moisture and rain chances. The persistent upper level low over SE Arizona and northern Sonora will continue to be the focus. Heading into Monday, the low will remain closed off over SE Arizona with the associated counterclockwise flow, pulling in moisture from the southeast. PW values remain around 1.00" with dew points around 50 degrees, moisture will be plentiful throughout the column with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Monday will continue to have the best forcing given the proximity of the low. That in combination with very saturated soils, isolated pockets of flash flooding will be possible. Coverage will be best across the eastern 2/3 of the CWA. By Tuesday, the upper level low will open up and begin it`s progression to the east. Southwest flow and drier air aloft will prevail with most of the area experiencing dry conditions. However, residual moisture over the mountain zones will foster shower/storm chances for those locations, mainly isolated in coverage. Temperatures through Tuesday will be 5-10 degrees below the seasonal normal. The forecast beyond Tuesday remains unclear with continued inconsistencies in the GFS and ECMWF. The evolution of another trough is unclear as it drops down from the north along the Pacific Coast before trekking towards the east. The ECMWF closes off the low in the vicinity of Baja CA on Wednesday. As it moves east along the International Border, it pulls moisture in from SSE and induces rain/storm chances across portions of the area on Thursday. Whereas the GFS shows a rather progressive trough quickly move west to east along the International Border. With very little time for the system to pull moisture in from the south, the GFS solution looks to be mainly dry during the Wed/Thurs timeframe. NBM guidance seems to be the more reasonable solution, giving portions of the area `slight` PoPs on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will gradually warm each day starting on Wednesday, inching closer to the seasonal normal by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022 Good chance for thunderstorm impacts tonight as activity moves north out of Chihuahua and across S NM and W TX. Temporary IFR conditions likely through the 02-08Z timeframe tonight with scattered TSRA. Ceilings possibly dropping to 015-020 prior to sunrise Sunday, especially at KELP. Will monitor for further deterioration and exact timing this evening. Mostly VFR conditions Sunday morning and early afternoon, with skies SCT- BKN040 and SE surface winds 05-10KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1228 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022 Continued wet and saturated conditions through Tuesday will result in low fire weather concerns. However, persistent rain showers with areas of embedded thunder may produce isolated instances of flooding as rainfall totals of 0.50 to 2.00 will be possible. Min RH`s will stay above 40% (much higher in the mountains) through early next week. Much drier conditions are expected for the middle and latter portions of next week, but min RH`s will still run mainly above 30%. Ventilation rates over the next couple of days will range from poor to fair. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 58 72 58 73 / 70 40 50 60 Sierra Blanca 52 66 52 67 / 40 50 50 70 Las Cruces 53 68 53 70 / 70 40 50 50 Alamogordo 52 69 51 70 / 50 50 60 70 Cloudcroft 36 46 36 49 / 70 70 70 90 Truth or Consequences 52 65 51 68 / 40 40 60 60 Silver City 49 61 48 64 / 40 50 50 60 Deming 54 68 53 70 / 50 30 40 50 Lordsburg 53 68 52 71 / 40 30 30 30 West El Paso Metro 57 72 57 73 / 70 40 50 60 Dell City 54 69 54 71 / 50 50 60 80 Fort Hancock 54 73 55 75 / 50 50 50 60 Loma Linda 51 64 51 65 / 60 50 60 70 Fabens 56 72 56 74 / 70 40 50 50 Santa Teresa 54 70 54 71 / 80 40 50 50 White Sands HQ 54 69 55 70 / 80 50 60 70 Jornada Range 54 66 54 68 / 70 50 60 60 Hatch 53 68 53 70 / 50 40 60 60 Columbus 54 69 54 70 / 60 30 40 40 Orogrande 54 69 54 70 / 80 50 60 70 Mayhill 43 56 43 59 / 60 60 70 90 Mescalero 42 57 41 59 / 60 70 70 90 Timberon 41 56 41 57 / 70 70 70 90 Winston 47 58 46 61 / 50 60 60 70 Hillsboro 49 64 48 67 / 60 40 50 60 Spaceport 52 66 52 69 / 50 50 60 60 Lake Roberts 43 61 41 62 / 40 60 60 70 Hurley 49 66 49 68 / 40 40 50 50 Cliff 47 71 45 72 / 30 50 50 50 Mule Creek 47 65 47 66 / 30 50 50 50 Faywood 51 64 50 66 / 60 40 50 60 Animas 51 69 51 71 / 50 20 30 20 Hachita 51 67 51 70 / 60 30 30 30 Antelope Wells 50 66 51 69 / 60 30 30 30 Cloverdale 48 64 48 66 / 30 40 40 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...31-Dhuyvetter LONG TERM....38-Rogers AVIATION...30-Dennhardt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1057 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Temperatures gradually warming each day, peaking in the 70s and low 80s by Tuesday. - A few low chances for precipitation through next weekend, highest Tuesday night with a strong cold front. Gusty westerly winds have brought in milder air from the northern Plains today. Temperatures are already beginning to exceed forecasted highs and dew points are remaining steady in the 20s to low 30s, making for elevated fire weather conditions due to low RH. A weakening shortwave will dive southeast across northern and central MN early Sunday. This may be accompanied by a compact area of increased clouds and a few showers, so maintained the chance of precip inherited by the overnight crew. The airmass will become increasingly warmer through early week as the northwest mid/upper level flow transitions to more zonal. Another high pressure center will pass southeast across the Great Lakes, shifting surface winds northeasterly for a time Sunday. It won`t have much of a cooling impact on temps. In fact, temps were increased a bit above guidance (75th percentile) given what is transpiring today. By Tuesday, with the large surface high centered over New England and the Mid Atlantic, broad southerly flow and increasing moisture will engulf the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Highs should reach well into the 70s and there could be a few 80s in MN. The increased low level moisture and plenty of prefrontal heating could yield enough surface-based instability for thunderstorm development late Tuesday afternoon and evening along the strong cold front. A much cooler airmass will filter in mid/late week. A few shortwaves within the cyclonic flow may generate insignificant showers occasionally, but the chances for any meaningful rainfall appear meager. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 00z models trending toward a dry solution for the MPX area with the wave currently up by Winnipeg that will be dropping into the MPX area Sunday morning. Kept prob30 for -shra at STC, but have dropped it for MPX. VFR conditions expected through this TAF period with winds Sunday being much lighter than we saw Saturday, with a weak trough/front washing out over southern MN leading to light NNE winds behind it and NW winds ahead of it. KMSP...00z HRRR brings showers about as far south as STC Sun morning, so have dropped the prob30 for -shra around 18z. We`ll likely see a couple of hours of bkn mid level clouds around 18z, but nothing worse than that. Sunday night into Monday morning, the HRRR continues to show fog forming over central MN along the remnant boundary. Probably not something to worry about for MSP, but it`s the only thing to keep an eye on this period. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR. Light wind bcmg S 5-10 kts. Tue...VFR. Chc evening -SHRA, TS possible. Wind SW 20G30 kts. Wed...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA. Wind WNW 15G25 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 PM MST Sat Oct 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will linger over northwest Mexico and southern Arizona with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the weekend. Temperatures will remain near or below average for early October. && .DISCUSSION...Low pressure continues to meander around the region bringing enough moisture/instability for showers/storms. Some of the storms have been producing accumulating hail resulting in some rather precarious travel on area roadways. Some isolated flooding has also occurred. Latest HRRR solutions continue to show activity moving slowly north and gradually diminishing through the evening. Expect similar conditions again on Sunday as the low pressure system remains in the region. By Monday, the low pressure begins to weaken and move away from the area. Any shower/storm activity will be east of Tucson. Temperatures remain near/below average. Rest of next week will see a progressive upper low move across the desert southwest. Lingering moisture will be around for a slight chance of storms mainly east of Tucson Tue thru Thu. Temperatures will generally remain several degrees below normal into early next week, then warming to near normal levels by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 10/00Z. SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-12k ft AGL thru much of the valid period. ISOLD-SCTD SHRA with embdd TS across the area, including KOLS/KTUS. Convection gradually diminished through the evening. Outside of thunderstorm outflows, expect E-SE SFC winds generally less than 15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend. The main threats will be strong gusty outflow winds and isolated areas of heavy rainfall. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds this weekend into early next week east/southeast less than 15 kts. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at