Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/09/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
529 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1228 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022
Rain and storm chances will continue through Monday with
temperatures well below the seasonal normal. By Tuesday, rain
chances are expected to decrease with slightly warmer
temperatures. The dry weather continues on Wednesday before slight
chances of rain return to the forecast for the end of next work
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1228 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022
Current satellite depicts low clouds clinging to the northern
counties, while widespread CU are building in the southern counties
(near the international border). Surface dew points have remain
around 50 (give or take a few degrees) as the deep moisture persists
for the short term period. The upper level low continues to spin
over southeast AZ this afternoon, moving slightly east into western
NM overnight tonight. This keeps healthy divergence aloft, and
the mid levels cool.
The 18Z HRRR and other short range models keep around 500-1300 J/KG
of instability around the CWA, with increasing amount`s over northern
MX (south of the NM Bootheel). With ample sunshine, convection is
beginning to initiate south of and near the NM Bootheel. This
convection will create a shortwave in the upper level low`s flow,
which will rotate north near the international border around 6 pm
tonight. This added lift will help sustain convection as it moves
into the CWA later this evening. The window for this band of rain
and storms for Hidalgo, Luna, Dona Ana, Hudspeth and El Paso
counties will be from 6 pm through midnight. The band will become
fragmented as it moves northward, with widespread light rain showers
and scattered convection reaching Sierra, Grant, and Otero counties
after midnight. CAM`s depict the heaviest rain stay in motion
tonight, however soils are already pretty saturated (with already
seeing 1-4 inches over most of the CWA in the past 24 hours).
Flooding will be a concern for where those convective cells are able
to form. Models are showing uncertainty with the intensity of the
band as it moves into the CWA, with run to run differences on
precipitation amounts. With that said, there is high confidence in
most lowland locations seeing 0.25-0.5 overnight as the band of rain
moves through. Embedded convection in some areas could drop up to 1-
2 inches tonight. Higher terrain will most likely see accumulations
of 0.5-1 inches higher amounts near the tallest peaks.
Sunday, rain and low clouds will slowly move out of the northern
areas by noon. There is a good chance of seeing patchy fog in the
Sacramento Mountains again early Sunday morning and the rain clears
out. Mostly cloudy skies will last through the early afternoon for
most of the area, with a few places near the international border
seeing some sunshine poke through. The upper level low begins to
open extending cooler mid level temps across most of the CWA. The
best upper level divergence now exists over El Paso, Otero, and
Hudspeth counties. Scattered convection will begin to develop over
the area, with a larger band forming near the US/MX border in
Hudsepth county. With better lift in areas east of the Rio Grande
valley, storms will have a better chance there Monday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1228 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022
Overall, not a lot of change in the long term forecast compared to
previous discussions, with continued moisture and rain chances.
The persistent upper level low over SE Arizona and northern Sonora
will continue to be the focus. Heading into Monday, the low will
remain closed off over SE Arizona with the associated
counterclockwise flow, pulling in moisture from the southeast. PW
values remain around 1.00" with dew points around 50 degrees,
moisture will be plentiful throughout the column with scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected. Monday will continue to have
the best forcing given the proximity of the low. That in
combination with very saturated soils, isolated pockets of flash
flooding will be possible. Coverage will be best across the
eastern 2/3 of the CWA. By Tuesday, the upper level low will open
up and begin it`s progression to the east. Southwest flow and
drier air aloft will prevail with most of the area experiencing
dry conditions. However, residual moisture over the mountain zones
will foster shower/storm chances for those locations, mainly
isolated in coverage. Temperatures through Tuesday will be 5-10
degrees below the seasonal normal.
The forecast beyond Tuesday remains unclear with continued
inconsistencies in the GFS and ECMWF. The evolution of another
trough is unclear as it drops down from the north along the
Pacific Coast before trekking towards the east. The ECMWF closes
off the low in the vicinity of Baja CA on Wednesday. As it moves
east along the International Border, it pulls moisture in from SSE
and induces rain/storm chances across portions of the area on
Thursday. Whereas the GFS shows a rather progressive trough
quickly move west to east along the International Border. With
very little time for the system to pull moisture in from the
south, the GFS solution looks to be mainly dry during the
Wed/Thurs timeframe. NBM guidance seems to be the more reasonable
solution, giving portions of the area `slight` PoPs on Wednesday
and Thursday. Temperatures will gradually warm each day starting
on Wednesday, inching closer to the seasonal normal by next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022
Good chance for thunderstorm impacts tonight as activity moves
north out of Chihuahua and across S NM and W TX. Temporary IFR
conditions likely through the 02-08Z timeframe tonight with
scattered TSRA. Ceilings possibly dropping to 015-020 prior to
sunrise Sunday, especially at KELP. Will monitor for further
deterioration and exact timing this evening. Mostly VFR
conditions Sunday morning and early afternoon, with skies SCT-
BKN040 and SE surface winds 05-10KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022
Continued wet and saturated conditions through Tuesday will result
in low fire weather concerns. However, persistent rain showers with
areas of embedded thunder may produce isolated instances of flooding
as rainfall totals of 0.50 to 2.00 will be possible. Min RH`s will
stay above 40% (much higher in the mountains) through early next
week. Much drier conditions are expected for the middle and latter
portions of next week, but min RH`s will still run mainly above 30%.
Ventilation rates over the next couple of days will range from poor
to fair.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 58 72 58 73 / 70 40 50 60
Sierra Blanca 52 66 52 67 / 40 50 50 70
Las Cruces 53 68 53 70 / 70 40 50 50
Alamogordo 52 69 51 70 / 50 50 60 70
Cloudcroft 36 46 36 49 / 70 70 70 90
Truth or Consequences 52 65 51 68 / 40 40 60 60
Silver City 49 61 48 64 / 40 50 50 60
Deming 54 68 53 70 / 50 30 40 50
Lordsburg 53 68 52 71 / 40 30 30 30
West El Paso Metro 57 72 57 73 / 70 40 50 60
Dell City 54 69 54 71 / 50 50 60 80
Fort Hancock 54 73 55 75 / 50 50 50 60
Loma Linda 51 64 51 65 / 60 50 60 70
Fabens 56 72 56 74 / 70 40 50 50
Santa Teresa 54 70 54 71 / 80 40 50 50
White Sands HQ 54 69 55 70 / 80 50 60 70
Jornada Range 54 66 54 68 / 70 50 60 60
Hatch 53 68 53 70 / 50 40 60 60
Columbus 54 69 54 70 / 60 30 40 40
Orogrande 54 69 54 70 / 80 50 60 70
Mayhill 43 56 43 59 / 60 60 70 90
Mescalero 42 57 41 59 / 60 70 70 90
Timberon 41 56 41 57 / 70 70 70 90
Winston 47 58 46 61 / 50 60 60 70
Hillsboro 49 64 48 67 / 60 40 50 60
Spaceport 52 66 52 69 / 50 50 60 60
Lake Roberts 43 61 41 62 / 40 60 60 70
Hurley 49 66 49 68 / 40 40 50 50
Cliff 47 71 45 72 / 30 50 50 50
Mule Creek 47 65 47 66 / 30 50 50 50
Faywood 51 64 50 66 / 60 40 50 60
Animas 51 69 51 71 / 50 20 30 20
Hachita 51 67 51 70 / 60 30 30 30
Antelope Wells 50 66 51 69 / 60 30 30 30
Cloverdale 48 64 48 66 / 30 40 40 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31-Dhuyvetter
LONG TERM....38-Rogers
AVIATION...30-Dennhardt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1057 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
- Temperatures gradually warming each day, peaking in the 70s and
low 80s by Tuesday.
- A few low chances for precipitation through next weekend, highest
Tuesday night with a strong cold front.
Gusty westerly winds have brought in milder air from the northern
Plains today. Temperatures are already beginning to exceed
forecasted highs and dew points are remaining steady in the 20s to
low 30s, making for elevated fire weather conditions due to low RH.
A weakening shortwave will dive southeast across northern and central
MN early Sunday. This may be accompanied by a compact area of
increased clouds and a few showers, so maintained the chance of
precip inherited by the overnight crew.
The airmass will become increasingly warmer through early week as
the northwest mid/upper level flow transitions to more zonal. Another
high pressure center will pass southeast across the Great Lakes,
shifting surface winds northeasterly for a time Sunday. It won`t have
much of a cooling impact on temps. In fact, temps were increased
a bit above guidance (75th percentile) given what is transpiring
today.
By Tuesday, with the large surface high centered over New England
and the Mid Atlantic, broad southerly flow and increasing moisture
will engulf the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Highs should reach
well into the 70s and there could be a few 80s in MN. The increased
low level moisture and plenty of prefrontal heating could yield
enough surface-based instability for thunderstorm development late
Tuesday afternoon and evening along the strong cold front.
A much cooler airmass will filter in mid/late week. A few shortwaves
within the cyclonic flow may generate insignificant showers
occasionally, but the chances for any meaningful rainfall appear
meager.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022
00z models trending toward a dry solution for the MPX area with the
wave currently up by Winnipeg that will be dropping into the MPX area
Sunday morning. Kept prob30 for -shra at STC, but have dropped it for
MPX. VFR conditions expected through this TAF period with winds
Sunday being much lighter than we saw Saturday, with a weak
trough/front washing out over southern MN leading to light NNE winds
behind it and NW winds ahead of it.
KMSP...00z HRRR brings showers about as far south as STC Sun morning,
so have dropped the prob30 for -shra around 18z. We`ll likely see a
couple of hours of bkn mid level clouds around 18z, but nothing worse
than that. Sunday night into Monday morning, the HRRR continues to
show fog forming over central MN along the remnant boundary. Probably
not something to worry about for MSP, but it`s the only thing to
keep an eye on this period.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Light wind bcmg S 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Chc evening -SHRA, TS possible. Wind SW 20G30 kts.
Wed...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA. Wind WNW 15G25 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 PM MST Sat Oct 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will linger over northwest Mexico
and southern Arizona with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
through the rest of the weekend. Temperatures will remain near or
below average for early October.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Low pressure continues to meander around the region
bringing enough moisture/instability for showers/storms. Some of
the storms have been producing accumulating hail resulting in
some rather precarious travel on area roadways. Some isolated
flooding has also occurred. Latest HRRR solutions continue to show
activity moving slowly north and gradually diminishing through
the evening.
Expect similar conditions again on Sunday as the low pressure
system remains in the region.
By Monday, the low pressure begins to weaken and move away from
the area. Any shower/storm activity will be east of Tucson.
Temperatures remain near/below average.
Rest of next week will see a progressive upper low move across the
desert southwest. Lingering moisture will be around for a slight
chance of storms mainly east of Tucson Tue thru Thu.
Temperatures will generally remain several degrees below normal into
early next week, then warming to near normal levels by the middle of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 10/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-12k ft AGL thru much of the valid period.
ISOLD-SCTD SHRA with embdd TS across the area, including
KOLS/KTUS. Convection gradually diminished through the evening.
Outside of thunderstorm outflows, expect E-SE SFC winds generally
less than 15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend. The main
threats will be strong gusty outflow winds and isolated areas of
heavy rainfall. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot
winds this weekend into early next week east/southeast less than
15 kts.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. &&
$$
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