Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/05/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1140 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
A decent amount of cirrus overhead, excepting the se corner of
the forecast area. There`s just a touch of altocu as well, though
most of it is based above 12k ft. 00Z APX and GRB soundings show
steep lapse rates from 800 to 500mb, but there is no moisture
present below 700mb. However, dew pt depressions between 700 and
500mb are around 5C. So there is a tiny bit of potential MuCape
later on tonight. The Rap is the one model that has squeezed out
isolated -SHRA for a model run or two. Will of course be keeping
an eye on things, but will not be adding any pops for now.
Have tweaked min temps a little cooler.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
...Pleasant fall temperatures continue...
High Impact Weather Potential: None
Pattern Synopsis:
Upper-level ridging will finally begin to depart the Great Lakes
tonight as downstream troughing pivots along the Mid-Atlantic coast
and an upstream shortwave treks across the northern Great Plains
into the Midwest. Surface high pressure that has been centered over
the Great Lakes as of late will sag into the Ohio River Valley by
tomorrow morning as a weak cyclone begins to develop over Ontario.
Forecast Details:
Aside from cloud cover and patchy drizzle across parts of eastern
upper, beautiful weather is in store for northern Michigan this
evening as aforementioned high pressure in the vicinity of the
region keeps areas south of the bridge dry for another night.
Mid/high cloud over the upper peninsula in association with an
elevated moisture plume will continue to round the ridge axis and
spread across more of northern Michigan overnight as this feature
slides to the southeast. Light southwest winds are expected to be in
place through tonight as northern Michigan lies between the two
surface features mentioned above. These winds, in tandem with cloud
cover, should prevent fog development across most of the area
overnight. Overnight lows across northern Michigan are expected to
be a few degrees warmer than the previous night, dipping down into
the mid 40s to low 50s with the more mild temperatures coming across
eastern upper/Tip of the Mitt where more cloud cover will be in
place.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
High Impact Weather Potential: Elevated Fire Danger Wednesday
Pattern Synopsis:
Upper-level ridging will continue to slide southeast of the region
into the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday as a relatively weak shortwave
progresses into the upper Mississippi River Valley. While a weak
surface pressure response will be associated with this, a much
stronger wave will punch across the upper Midwest and over the Great
Lakes by Thursday evening. Forcing provided by this feature will
develop a cyclone along an existing boundary draped across southern
Canada and eventually trek from Ontario across Quebec by Thursday
morning. An attendant cold front is expected to swing across
northern Michigan from NW to SE Thursday morning into Thursday
evening, leaving the periphery of high pressure to nose into the
Great Lakes on Friday.
Forecast Details:
One last day of precip-free weather for most of northern Michigan is
in store for Wednesday. Highs are expected to reach into the upper
60s to mid 70s across the area while mid/high clouds overspreading
the Great Lakes will create partly to mostly cloudy skies. Elevated
fire danger will be in effect on Wednesday across parts of northern
lower Michigan, mainly east of I-75. Additional details are
discussed in the Fire Weather Planning Forecast.
Unfortunately, the stretch of pleasant fall days will come to an end
by Thursday. The chance for rain showers will return to eastern
upper Wednesday night as the aforementioned front encroaches on the
region from the northwest. Rain showers will increase in coverage
along the front as it swings across the area during the day on
Thursday, quickly dropping temperatures behind the boundary. High
temperatures in the mid/upper 50s across approximately the northwest
half of the CWA may be realized during the late morning/early
afternoon due to the frontal passage cooling temperatures through
the remainder of the day. North-northwest winds will pick up behind
the front as well, gusting from 20-30 mph over land with 30-40 mph
gusts over the nearshore waters Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night.
Low-level flow will gradually turn to north/north-northeast Thursday
night, pushing seasonably cold air across the relatively warm waters
of the Great Lakes. This will help support lake effect/lake enhanced
rain showers, mainly along the Lake Huron and Lake Michigan
shorelines. Temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 30s
overnight across elevated interior portions of northern Michigan,
bringing the potential for our first wet snowflakes to mix in at
times late Thursday night into Friday morning with any more robust
showers. Any snowfall is anticipated to be brief and should melt
quickly after impact on most surfaces. Rain showers are expected to
continue into Friday afternoon mainly downwind of Grand Traverse Bay
before ending as high pressure builds in. While precip chances end,
a less-than-enjoyable afternoon appears to be on tap Friday as highs
may struggle to get warmer than the low 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
High Impact Weather Potential: Low
Longwave troughing with multiple embedded shortwaves will pivot over
the northeastern portion of the continent through the weekend as
ridging holds over the western CONUS. Strong high pressure will
build underneath subsidence at the ridge/trough inflection point,
encompassing much of the central U.S. through the weekend. Northern
Michigan lying on the northern periphery of this high pressure
should keep precip chances at bay into early next week. Otherwise,
temperatures look to warm through the weekend, rising back into the
mid 50s and low 60s by Sunday afternoon. These near-average highs
for early October are expected to continue through the first half of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
Mostly VFR. Some fog tonight MBL.
Somewhat more mid/high clouds around than the past few nights. The
additional clouds will make fog development less likely. MBL
already seeing IFR vsbys at times; that will continue a bit past
sunrise. Fog seems less likely at other TAF sites.
Sw winds will become gustier on Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
Mainly light winds are expected overnight before increasing from the
southwest on Wednesday. Occasional gusts to advisory criteria will
be possible over the northern Lake Michigan nearshore waters
beginning late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.
Looking ahead, stronger N winds behind a passing cold front may lead
to gale force wind gusts at times Thursday evening. Otherwise, high
pressure will continue to prevent precipitation development through
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...DJC
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...DJC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
951 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Overnight, lingering showers will be mainly across northeastern
Pennsylvania, the southern tier and the Catskills, then skies
gradually clear out Wednesday afternoon with partly sunny and
dry weather continuing through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
945 PM Update...
Only minor adjustments to the forecast overnight into Wednesday
based on the latest radar, satellite and CAM trends. Leaned more
strongly with the HRRR which lingers the light rain/showers
further northwest, to a Towanda/Binghamton/Oneonta line well
into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, I did go ahead and add in
some patchy fog for late Wednesday night and early Thursday
morning, in the typical valley locations as we decouple under
clear skies.
655 PM Update...
Main change with this update was to increase PoPs and cloud
cover over the southeastern half of the CWA overnight and right
into the day on Wednesday, due to the slow moving upper level
low nearby.
A nearly stationary cutoff upper level continues to spin across
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this evening. A well established
east-northeast flow at 925mb and 850mb is continuing to pump
Atlantic moisture into our area. Current KBGM radar is still
showing ample waves of showers rotating east to west across much
of the forecast area...and hi-res CAMs such as the HRRR and RAP
show this trend continuing through the rest of the overnight
period. The surface low, which is currently located almost due
east of Cape May, NJ will eventually start to drift south toward
daybreak Wednesday. This will allow scattered showers to linger
across the Catskills and much of NE PA right into Wednesday
morning, while areas from around Binghamton north and west
finally dry out. On and off rain showers now look to linger
across the Poconos and Wyoming Valley region of NE PA just about
all day on Wednesday, with the rain not completely ending until
late afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts between a 0.10 to
0.50 inch are forecast across NE PA and southern Caskills
through Wednesday afternoon. Clouds linger much of the day from
Binghamton south and east...however conditions look to turn
mostly sunny on Wednesday for the central southern tier, Finger
Lakes, Syracuse metro and Mohawk Valley.
Overnight lows tonight will be 40s areawide under mostly cloudy
to overcast skies. There should be a rather distinct temperature
gradient over the region on Wednesday; with temperatures warming
nicely well into the 60s and even a few lower 70s where skies
turn mostly sunny...meanwhile we undercut guidance for highs
across NE PA and the southern Catskills where showers and clouds
linger all day...here highs will be mid-50s to lower 60s.
330 PM update...
A cutoff low continues to spin over Virginia, pulling Atlantic
moisture into our area that is helping to keep mid and upper
level clouds and rain over the area. Into the evening and
overnight hours, lingering chances for rain will likely be
isolated to northeast PA and the Catskills. The upper level low
over Virginia will slowly move east out to sea late Wednesday,
with showers finally wrapping up over our southeastern zones
during the afternoon. Additional totals from now through
Wednesday may peak at around a quarter to half an inch across
the Wyoming valley, Poconos, and southern Catskills with lighter
totals elsewhere.
Under this thick blanket of clouds and more widespread areas of
rain, temperatures have struggled to get out of the 40s across
northeast PA, but are peaking generally in the lower to mid 50s
from the Twin Tiers and northward. Tonight low temperatures
will be mostly in the 40s again. If some clearing does occur
north of the NYS thruway some mid and upper 30s are possible.
Skies start to clear from northwest to southeast overnight and
through Wednesday, and this will contribute to a much warmer
day. Expect highs well into the 60s across much of the area,
though our easternmost zones may only reach the upper 50s to
lower 60s in cloud cover sticks around longer. Skies stay clear
Wednesday night, and some patchy valley fog would not be out of
the question as winds turn light. Otherwise, expect lows to
range in the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update:
High pressure will remain overhead through the day on Thursday.
Skies will begin the day partly cloudy but slowly fill in from
the west as the next system approaches from the Great Lakes. SW
flow ahead of this system will allow for temperatures to climb
well above normal across the area. Highs in the low to mid 70s
are expected across the region. This is 8-10 degrees above
normal for our climate sites.
Friday evening into the overnight hours, a weak shortwave ahead
of the oncoming front may kick off a few showers north of the
Southern Tier where forcing is a little more favorable but
nothing widespread is expected at this time.
A cold front will push through the area Friday. Showers along
the front should move into the western portion of the CWA Friday
morning and slowly move eastward. Guidance cannot agree on how
long the showers will continue to generate along the front, with
some models showing the showers dissipating east of I-81.
Looking at moisture and forcing in modeled soundings, it seems
that there should be enough low level moisture east of I-81 to
allow showers to keep going but they are not expected to be
heavy.
A much colder and blustery airmass will fall into the area
behind the cold front. Temperatures will not have much time to
warm before the front begins to push through. Highs across the
area on Friday will range from the mid 50s across the Finger
Lakes to mid 60s in the Wyoming Valley. Winds will gust up to
20-25mph at times from the NW.
Northwest flow with a colder airmass means lake effect showers
will ramp up Friday evening. 850mb temps will hover around 6-7C
during the overnight hours, allowing shower and cloud
generation. Surface temps are expected to fall into the low to
mid 30s. This will allow for a chance for some snow/graupel to
mix in with the rain showers at higher elevations souther of
the Mohawk Valley and across northern Oneida county. The latest
model runs cut the lake effect showers off by Saturday morning
as high pressure and dry air move into the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM Update:
High pressure will control the region through the long term
period, bringing quiet weather and seasonable temperatures.
Saturday will be the coldest day of the period, with highs in
the upper 40s to low 50s and overnight lows in the mid 30s.
Sunday through Tuesday will see a warming trend with highs in
the mid to upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 pm update...
Cut off low pressure system that is the remnants of Hurricane
Ian continues to spin off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This system is
bringing light rain showers all the way into Central NY.
Although some showers have pushed into BGM and ELM, ceilings and
visibility will remain VFR through the period. AVP will see the
most impacts from this system. Rain showers will continue to
cause at least MVFR restrictions through tonight before ceilings
finally lift to VFR tomorrow afternoon. Brief IFR restrictions
can`t be ruled out overnight, but confidence is too low to
include in the forecast at this time.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Again possible
morning IFR valley fog at ELM.
Friday through Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain
showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HLC/MJM
NEAR TERM...HLC/MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...HLC/MPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
946 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022
The last of the showers are coming to an end. Partly cloudy NW
half of fcst area, generally Cooperstown to Grand Forks to Roseau
north. Will still need to watch for some fog overnight as short
term models continue to indicate some. Other than to remove
weather/pops no changes.
UPDATE Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022
500 mb loow over south central South Dakota. Still enough mid
level moisture northward into SE ND and into Minnesota for a few
remaining showers. With daytime heating a couple small t-storms
formed and are slowly drifting around an area between Fargo and
Jamestown. Overall trends will be for lessening precip chances
this evening SE ND into MN with dry NE ND. Light winds again and
HRRR indicates some fog patches so based on vsby forecasts I did
introduce some fog patches late night/early Wed AM in NE ND and NW
MN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022
Impacts in the short term will be from above normal temps delaying
area beet harvest and then winds tomorrow evening in the wake of a
strong cold front. Also may see a few showers this evening along
and south of the hwy 200 corridor as inverted trough and upper low
continue to meander to the east into the overnight, will maintain
the 20 to 30% chance, with light amounts of less than a tenth for
most. If convection does develop in SE ND where there some
instability then the possibility of a quarter inch or so does
exist. Overnight skies will be mostly clear with lows falling into
the upper 40s a bit cooler than this morning. With clear skies
tomorrow we will see another warm day with temps again expected to
climb into the low 70s.
As a low pressure system moves across northern Canadian prairies a
cold front will enter the northern valley late tomorrow afternoon
and quickly push south across the FA Wednesday evening. BUFkit
soundings show mixing to 925mb with 30 to 35kts and cold advection
will see efficient wind transfer to the surface with gusts up to
45mph highest in NE ND. Some showers will be possible along the
front across NW MN where better moisture and upper support align a
bit better.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022
The current chance for widespread hazardous weather between Thursday
and Tuesday is currently low, less than 10%.
The long term period will feature seasonably chilly conditions
behind Wednesday`s cold front turning more seasonable toward the
weekend, followed by uncertain synoptic regime into early next week.
A seasonably cold air mass behind the front Thursday and Friday
should bring the season`s coldest temperatures thus far, with
greater than 80% chance of seeing subfreezing temperatures Thursday
morning mainly north of US Hwy 2, and area-wide Friday and Saturday
morning. There is even a greater than 80% chance of seeing
temperatures below 28 F (hard freeze) area wide Friday morning.
While we`ve ended our Frost/Freeze headline issuances for the year,
this could bring impacts to remaining sensitive vegetation, as well
as promote many trees to shed their foliage. Daytime conditions will
remain chilly with temperatures remaining in the 40s, especially
Thursday with breezy northerly winds lingering throughout the day.
There could be some lake-effect shallow convection Thursday,
particularly off of the larger MN lakes like LOW, possibly resulting
in some snow should this occur in the morning. Little to no
accumulation is expected from this given warm ground and expected
lighter rates.
Ensemble guidance consensus stalls the trough`s progression within
the Great Lakes as upper ridging redevelops over the West toward the
weekend. This brings NW flow aloft and gradually warming air mass
into the Dakotas bringing temps back toward seasonable. Getting into
early next week, ensemble guidance varies considerably. This is
illustrated nicely through cluster analysis with around 40% of
global ensemble members projecting a deepening trough over the
Canadian Rockies into the US Intermountain West, whereas 60% of
ensemble members building a large upper ridge over the same area.
The difference spells either well above normal temps (ridging
scenario) or seasonable temps, gusty winds, and potentially rain and
snow into the Northern Plains region. Thus, uncertainty is very high
beyond Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022
Overall a VFR pattern into Wednesday. There are some caveats
though as patches of fog and/or low clouds may form late
tonight/early in NE ND and NW MN. When and if this impacts a TAF
site is uncertain so this was not in the TAFs. Wed mid to late
aftn to see NW wind shift and winds increase behind a cold front
into DVL basin and northern valley 21z and after and all areas
after 00z Thu.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...Riddle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1201 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
- Low chance for some thunderstorms Thursday
Models are showing the cold front dropping south southeastward
through the CWA during the day. Most models are showing 250-500
J/kg around the frontal zone...but the RAP is now up over 500
J/kg. Overall the CAPE on the soundings is shown to the thin and
up to about the -20 to -25 deg C level. We will add a risk for
thunderstorms with the frontal passage given the trends. The
strongest lift and associated mid level height falls occurs across
northern parts of the CWA and into northern Lower MI. As a
result...POPs will remain high...especially for northern zones.
Behind the front...in the cold air advection...temperatures become
plenty cold enough to generate some instability over Lake MI with
clouds and some showers. However the flow favors most of the
activity to remain offshore. The DGZ for places like LWA and MKG
remains largely unsaturated so that does not favor much in the
way of precipitation Thursday night through Friday.
- Frost/Freeze Potential for Friday night
The skies are forecast to become mostly clear especially away from
Lake MI Friday night as the northerly flow weakens and the
moisture becomes shallower. The night will start off cold...with
many locations in the 40s for the late afternoon hours. As the
winds diminish...good radiational cooling is expected. This will
set the stage for perhaps a widespread frost/freeze event. If the
cloud cover does persist...the risk would end up being much lower.
We will continue to monitor trends but a headline may be needed at
some point for this potential event.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022
Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated at all the terminals
through Wednesday evening. The exception to this is early this
morning just prior to and through daybreak when some patchy fog
will develop and cause brief reductions to MVFR/IFR mainly at our
southern terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
We will hoist a gale watch for Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night. The deeper mixing associated with the cold air advection is
shown to mix into the mid 30 knot range of winds. This would
support some gale gusts.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...Laurens
MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1122 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep most of the area dry through Thursday
night, but a slow-moving area of low pressure passing to our
south brings some showers across southern New Hampshire through
tomorrow morning and eventually the Maine coast through
tomorrow evening before exiting east into the Atlantic. A strong
cold front brings rain showers to the region Friday and Friday
night with much cooler temperatures over the weekend behind the
front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1120pm Update...With patches of thicker clouds associated with
some scattered showers, have bumped up overnight temps for the
southern two thirds of the CWA. Cirrus is still quite thin over
the central ME mountains and international border where temps
can continue to fall. HRRR has come into more agreement w/ NAM
on shower coverage overnight into Wed, and have updated that
forecast as well. With the moist airmass residing so close to
the region, it appears some of the hold out dry air is beginning
to erode. Northward extent of the showers tomorrow will depend
how quickly the southern system begins to drift east, allowing
northern areas to clear fairly quick. Diurnal heating could
develop a few stronger showers across southern NH into far
southern ME tomorrow afternoon as the system pivots away.
8pm Update...A few showers have finally overcome dry air to wet
the ground in southeastern NH over the past hour or so. These
should remain fairly scattered/isolated through midnight,
becoming more infrequent. This initial band has been holding
together pretty well as it approaches Concord and Rochester. 00z
GYX sounding still shows a tough dry layer to overcome any
further north, and will continue to show best chance for an
overnight shower well to the south. Across central parts of New
England, the moist airmass has low clouds, fog, and rain pretty
widespread. Will be keeping an eye on if this eventually pushes
north like the NAM forecasts, or if northerly dry air wins out
in line with HRRR/RAP solutions. Will also keep an eye on the
chances for valley fog to develop tonight across central parts
of ME, but again it may be just too dry. This region should
begin radiating well if cirrus remains broken, can`t rule out
some patchy valley fog for the early morning commute.
Previous Discussion...
Light echoes are showing up on radar at this hour across
southern NH, but there is still some dry air to erode before any
precip reaches the ground. However, higher moisture associated
with an area of low pressure near the Mid-Atlantic states will
continue to gradually advect northward into the area this
afternoon and tonight, primarily across southern NH and across
coastal southwestern ME. Lift and the better moisture profile
will make these the favored areas for isolated to scattered
showers through tonight.
With dewpoints higher than they were yesterday along with the
steady stream of mid and high clouds across the area, frost and
freeze headlines won`t be required with tonight`s lows generally
in the upper 30s lower 40s except mid to upper 40s across
southern NH. There still may be a few sheltered inland areas
that reach the mid 30s and see some patchy frost develop.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper-level low will continue to very slowly drift offshore of
the Mid-Atlantic, and similar to today and tonight, higher
moisture and lift will keep a low-end chance of showers southern
NH and along the ME coast for much of the day and into the
early part of Wednesday night in addition to skies remaining
mostly cloudy. Precip is not expected away from the coast as
forecast soundings reveal much drier air in the low levels, and
an upper ridge will start nosing into northern New England,
adding more subsidence.
For high temperatures, have gone on the cooler side of guidance
across southern and coastal areas due to more clouds and onshore
flow, putting forecast highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Inland
areas should be able to reach the mid to possibly upper 60s.
Going into Wednesday night, cloud cover will gradually diminish
across the area, and the potential for showers along the coast will
steadily wind down Wednesday night as the low pulls farther east and
the ridge becomes more established. Overnight lows will be in the
lower to mid 40s, pretty typical for early October.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An active northern stream continues through the long term with
classic fall-like weather expected. While a brief warmup is
expected with high pressure through late week, a strong cold
front pushes across the region early Saturday, bringing showers
and significantly cooler temperatures for the weekend. High
pressure builds back sometime early next week, perhaps after
another cold front, and will eventually allow for a warm trend
back closer to normal.
Starting off Thursday... a shortwave ridge builds across the
Eastern Seaboard with quiet weather and light flow. Mostly sunny
skies will allow temperatures to warm nicely through the 60s
and into the low- 70s over the area. By Friday the ridge moves
on... meanwhile an UL trough will dive into the northern Great
Lakes region and spin up a low over the Ottawa River Valley.
Thus Friday sees an increasing southwesterly wind and increasing
chances for mountain showers for our local area. Temperatures
will likely be a little warmer toward the south, but may still
be limited to the upper-60s elsewhere where more clouds are
expected.
Later Friday, the mid/upper-level circulation swings from a
positive to a negative tilt... very quickly pushing a strong
cold front across New England. Rain showers will be mostly
concentrated through the mountains since the circulation will be
centered north of the area, tracking down the Saint Lawrence...
but the expectation right now is for a few showers to track
through the lower elevations as well. Upsloping showers over the
mountains will transition to snow showers or graupel across the
peaks with strong CAA by early Saturday before tapering off,
probably by day`s end. In general the GFS/GEFS is a few hours
quicker than the ECMWF/ENS with this progression... but
regardless this FROPA sets us up for a significantly cooler
Saturday with highs in the 40s and 50s, likely aided by a breezy
downsloping wind to the coastal plain.
Cool and crisp conditions are expected through the weekend
under cyclonic flow aloft, with high pressure looming to the
south keeping precipitation chances low. Another cold front may
cross the region on Sunday, but so far looks to be a dry
passage other than the obligatory upslope showers. High
pressure generally builds back into the region early next
week... but the wave pattern remains active to the north, so
while the statistical suite favors somewhat of a rebound of
temperatures back to around normal and dry weather, this an
uncertain portion of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...An area of low pressure passing south of the
region today through Wednesday and Wednesday night will bring
the potential for showers, mainly spanning from MHT-PSM-PWM. In
addition to this, MVFR ceilings are looking like a good bet
across these sites through this time period, possibly reaching
CON and RKD. Drier air to the north should keep the rest of the
terminals VFR.
Long Term...VFR prevails at all sites Thursday into
Friday...other than a chance for overnight fog... with
increasing southerly to southwesterly flow. Shower chances
increase over the mountains through Friday, then a strong cold
front crosses the region late Friday with brief restrictions
possible at all sites in -SHRA and westerly wind shift. Gusty
winds to 20-25kts are possible as the front crosses, and through
the day Saturday. MVFR ceilings likely linger at KHIE during
the day Saturday, but VFR prevails elsewhere through the end of
the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Increasing northeast winds will build seas across
the waters tonight in Wednesday, prolonging the already ongoing
SCA conditions. Winds will start to diminish late in the day
Wednesday and into Wednesday night, but seas of 4 to 6 feet will
continue.
Long Term...Low pressure and any lingering fog/showers depart
to the east by Thursday with high pressure nosing in over the
waters in its wake...ushering in a mostly clear day with a light
southerly breeze developing, then turning southwesterly
overnight. A strong cold front crosses the waters Friday night
or early Saturday with a westerly wind shift... likely gusting
to at least SCA thresholds. Gusty west-northwesterly flow
persists through Saturday, then turns southwesterly and
diminishes early next week with high pressure building toward
the region.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Combs/Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Casey
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1154 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through early Wednesday)
Issued at 121 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2022
GOES 16 Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis show a subtle shortwave
and an area of moist mid-levels coincident with some weak
isentropic lift largely focusing sprinkly precip over parts of the
Keweenaw and Lake Superior. Most of this weak forcing has exited
into Ontario this morning, leaving behind midlevel clouds and breaks
of sunshine, mainly across the central UP. With a warm airmass
overhead characterized by 850mb temps of 12 to 13C, daytime highs
have climbed into the upper 60s and low 70s across the region so
far.
For the remainder of the afternoon and this evening, some additional
warming may occur before we begin cooling with the setting sun.
Continued cloud cover and the warmer airmass will bring the region a
more mild night with interior areas dipping into the high 40s or low
50s and mid to upper 50s by Lake Superior. More sprinkles will be
possible overnight, as dry near surface layer ahead of an
approaching surface boundary upstream, coincident with a moist mid-
upper layer and very weak convergent midlevel flow overhead,
persist.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2022
Rain showers move across Upper MI Wednesday and Wednesday night as a
shortwave over the Upper Mississippi River Valley continues to dig
southeast towards Chicago, bringing height falls across the area.
With anomalously warm air remaining over us Wednesday, expect highs
to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s, even despite the cloud cover.
As height falls and cloud cover continue Wednesday night, expect
temps to generally remain in the 50s throughout the overnight hours.
Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, expect a cold front from
northern Ontario to plunge south across Lake Superior into the Upper
Peninsula. This vigorous cold front is expected to drop temps into
the 40s to upper 30s once it passes; therefore Thursday`s high temp
(and Wednesday night`s low) is expected during the early morning
hours.
As cold Canadian air continues to cycle over us Thursday, expect
conditions above the boundary layer to dry out as the top of said
layer cools towards -10 to -12C. As the lake-enhanced rainfall
becomes lake-effect by the afternoon hours Thursday, expect rainfall
coverage to decrease, becoming mainly limited to the northerly flow
areas off of Lake Superior. By the late afternoon to early evening
hours, with temps at the top of the boundary layer around -10C and
the WB zero heights getting below 1 kft, some snowflakes and graupel
may mix down to the sfc in the interior and higher elevation areas.
The lake-effect rain and snow is expected to continue throughout
Thursday night, but with drier air continuing to move in, expect the
precip rates and coverage to decrease. Given that the ground is warm
from our recent warm wx, don`t think that we will see any snowfall
accumulations, except for maybe a quick-lived dusting on the grass
in spots before melting away. The exception might be the interior
west, where sfc temps could very well get to around 30, allowing for
the dusting of snow that doesn`t melt to remain until Friday
morning. Lake-effect precip ends Friday as ridging moves over the
area.
Moving into this weekend, expect a gradual warming trend to near
normal temps. Otherwise, dry weather looks to be in order for the
rest of the weekend and early next week, save for maybe some rain
showers Sunday night/Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1153 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2022
Upstream frontal boundary will continue to support VCSH mention
throughout TAF period. But, will still be able to trend toward
VFR for the majority of this period. Did pull some MVFR fog
mention into KSAW for Wednesday night, but it`s a bit early to
meniton at the other TAF sites. Winds will start out east-
northeasterly at KCMX and KSAW, but they will shift to the
southwest this morning. Expect mainly southwesterly winds at KIWD
with 5 to 7 kt sustained wind speeds at all TAF sites except KCMX,
which could report some gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 314 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2022
Light winds of 20 knots or less continue across Lake Superior until
late Wednesday night, when a cold front drops south from northern
Ontario. As the cold front moves south late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, expect north to northeast winds around 30 knots
across the lake. The eastern lake looks to just reach gale criteria
at 35 knots Thursday, whereas the western half may only see a few
gale-force gusts. Winds are expected to decrease Thursday night as
the cold front continues southwards, becoming generally 20 knots or
less by Friday. As another shortwave approaches from the north
Friday night and Saturday, expect westerly winds to increase to 20
to 25 knots before becoming 20 knots or less again Saturday night.
The light winds remain across Lake Superior into next week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening
for LSZ162.
Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
LSZ263-264.
Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for
LSZ265>267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
835 PM PDT Tue Oct 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...A gradual warming trend and dry conditions are expected
through the week as high pressure builds over the region. Slight
cooling returns by the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:33 PM PDT Tuesday...As the ridge prevails
over our region, the coastal profilers from north to south show
the marine layer is ranging ~650 feet at Bodega Bay up to ~1300
feet at Fort Ord. Most of the stratus that was over the region
earlier today has cleared out. Current satellite imagery shows
that most of the stratus is hugging the San Francisco peninsula,
southern half of the Monterey Bay, and along the Big Sur coast. We
anticpated that stratus will return for all of the coastal areas
overnight and into tomorrow morning.
With temperatures gently warming, highs today were in 60s and 70s
along the coast with 80s to low 90s inland. Despite the slight
warming trend, today`s max temperatures were still below normal.
Near the coast where they were influenced by the marine layer,
temperatures ranged from a few degrees to 8 degrees below normal.
Farther inland highs today was near to a few degrees above normal.
The forecast is on track to continue warming this week. By thursday
and friday, coastal temperatures will be within a few degrees of
normal and inland areas will range approximately 5-10 degrees above
normal.
In the 8-14 day CPC outlooks, the trend is showing that temperatures
will lean towards above normal and precipitation will trend towards
below normal.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 01:19 PM PDT Tuesday...
An elongated upper ridge sets up over the west coast today through
the rest of the week, promoting a slight warming and drying trend
into the weekend. Winds expected to remains onshore through the
week, with some compression of the marine layer. By Friday and
Saturday, inland temps expected to be 5-10 degrees above normal for
this time of year, with the highest departures from normal inland
closer to the Sacramento Valley and Santa Lucia Highlands.
A cooling trend begins Sunday as the ridge axis shifts west with a
weak disturbance in northern Mexico moving into the Desert
Southwest. This will also promote an increase in moisture to the
area through the early part of next week, though any impacts seem
likely to stay well south of our area.
Daytime highs this week will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s along
the coast and the mid-80s to lower 90s inland. Lows will be in the
50s to lower 60s. For the early part of next week, expect highs
closer to normal in the upper 60s along the coast and lower to mid-
80s inland.
&&
.AVIATION...As of 5:29 PM Tuesday...For the 00Z TAFs. It`s VFR
except satellite imagery and surface observations show stratus
and/or fog /IFR/ along the immediate coast from San Francisco and
Daly City almost to the San Mateo/Santa Cruz County line and
along northern coastal Monterey County. Peak diurnal warming,
vertical mixing, a northerly component to the coastal winds are
inducing a combination of drying and downsloping into the marine
layer stratus over our northern inner coastal waters; meso-scale
models are struggling to resolve this drying of the stratus (currently
over-forecasting stratus coverage) in this area. Overall this will
likely delay an inland intrusion across the Bay Area at least
initially this evening until land/ocean temperature contrasts and
pressure gradients relax later in the evening and overnight. At
that point, along with decent night-time radiational cooling, stratus
and fog coverage will likely increase with an inland extension on
onshore winds overnight and Wednesday morning. The marine layer
is approx 1,400 feet. Little if any temperature advection of
significance along with a nearly stationary thermal and height
ridge are forecast to remain over the Bay Area and north Central
Coast tonight and Wednesday; the marine layer depth should remain
relatively unchanged during the 00z taf cycle.
Vicinity of SFO...Moderate to high confidence VFR forecast for
the evening, the surface wind direction has veered from 270
degrees this morning to 300-310 degrees in the afternoon ahead of
narrow zone of clearing arriving from the northwest including most
recently downwind of Point Reyes. This along with a more northerly
component to the west wind should help keep VFR going at SFO terminal
(and the approach) through the 04z-06z volume. As mentioned the
meso-scale output are struggling with this zone of clearing, if the
hrrr model is correct another wave of lower level drying arrives
by mid evening which should help sustain VFR at the terminal. By
late evening however night-time cooling will be well underway and
if there`s a loss of the northerly component to the west wind,
stratus may fill back in, possibly quickly. Lower confidence tempo
stratus /IFR ceiling/ 12z-16z Wed, it may fill in sooner. Otherwise
VFR. West-northwest wind easing to 10 to 15 knots by mid to late
evening, increasing again to 15 to 22 knots Wednesday afternoon and
evening.
KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay...Increasing stratus and/or fog /IFR/ tonight and
Wednesday morning. West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots this
evening, easing to 5 to 10 knots tonight and Wednesday morning.
IFR conditions lifting to VFR by late Wednesday morning and early
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...as of 4:44 PM PDT Tuesday...Strong northwest winds
continue to produce choppy seas that are hazardous for small
craft. Breezy winds and wave heights around 7 to 9 feet in the
outer waters will continue through Thursday morning. A fresh
northwest swell at 16 to 18 seconds has arrived and will diminish
by the end of the week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SO
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: McCorkle
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
445 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022
The large upper-level low pressure system has moved eastward over
east-central SD this morning, with lingering clouds around the
Bighorns and Johnson and Natrona Counties. There is a very slight
chance of showers over the Bighorns this afternoon as a result,
but confidence is low. Fog developed early this morning from the
lower elevations of Yellowstone south into Jackson Hole, but has
burned off during the late morning hours. Otherwise, mostly clear
skies will prevail over the forecast area with relatively light
surface winds. Some areas over central WY as well as western into
SW WY could see NW winds of 10-12 mph with gusts 15-20 mph.
Upper-level high pressure over the western US moves eastward,
kind of "folding over" from ID/western MT into western WY
overnight. Skies should be mostly clear overnight, though some fog
should redevelop over the lower elevations of Yellowstone and
into the northern parts of Jackson Hole. Not confident enough to
put patchy fog in the forecast for the town of Jackson and Jackson
airport though. Overnight temperatures will again be on the
chilly side with most of the western valleys reaching 32 F or
lower just before sunrise. With the eastern edge of high pressure
over WY Tuesday, the surface pressure gradient will direct surface
winds from NE to SW during the afternoon. Winds of 10-12 mph with
gusts 15-20 mph are possible in some locations from central into
southern WY, with lighter winds elsewhere. Cody to Meeteetse may
see gusty east winds though. Some clouds will develop over the
mountains during the afternoon as well for a very nice early
October day. Temperatures will be 4-6 degrees above normal in the
mid 60s to low 70s due to 700mb temps from +4 to +8 C. Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning should see mid- to high-level
clouds start pushing into northern WY from the north as an
approaching shortwave trough enters far NE MT. The HRRR and other
high res models are indicating that north winds will push into far
northern WY before sunrise Thu morning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022
An amplified ridge remains to our west with the axis along the
Pacific Coast through Saturday. This keeps generally dry, northwest
flow aloft across Wyoming. Surface high pressure drops south through
the Northern Plains Thursday pushing a backdoor cold front to the
east slope of the Continental Divide Thursday afternoon and evening.
Other than dropping daytime highs a few degrees and perhaps igniting
isolated convection in the northern mountains, there is little
impact associated with this boundary. The next shortwave clips
eastern Wyoming Sunday as it slides southeast. Similar to Thursday,
this wave brings little more than isolated mountain convection in
the north and a slight drop in temperatures across the east.
Beyond Sunday, model differences begin to become more noticeable.
There seems to be some general agreement that the ridge may begin to
break down and at least usher in progressive zonal flow. Overall,
this would lead to mild temperatures through Monday along with a
better chance of precipitation Tuesday as Pacific Moisture reaches
the Rockies. Also, increasing westerly wind would become more likely
Tuesday. By Tuesday, and certainly beyond, the range of solutions
varies widely among ensemble and deterministic model solutions.
Options range from 1) the ridge dampening but holding, 2) more
progressive westerly flow, and 3) a deepening trough in the Northern
Rockies accompanied by a more vigorous cold front. For example, GFS
ensembles for KRIW on Tuesday, October 11, show highs ranging from
the 20s to the lower 70s, generally clustering in the 50s and 60s.
At this range, the solution offered by the blended model is
certainly the way to go, an option leaning toward seasonal
temperatures, increasing west wind, and a better chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 443 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022
Any lingering isolated showers over the Bighorns and FEW-SCT070
clouds east of the Continental Divide will dissipate at sunset.
Otherwise, VFR conditions, SKC, and surface wind speeds less than
10kts prevail through 00Z/Thursday.
Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 101 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022
High pressure is moving into WY from the west today, with some
clouds over central WY and a very slight chance of showers over the
Bighorn mountains. Winds this afternoon will be light to moderate
with some areas seeing NW winds and gusts 15-20 mph. Humidity values
should remain above 25 percent and temperatures will be just above
normal. Skies will clear overnight with some fog expected again
from Yellowstone into northern parts of Jackson Hole. Overnight
temps will again be chilly with good humidity recovery. High
pressure settles in Tuesday for warmer temps from the 60s to low
70s in the lower elevations. Winds again will be light with some
areas seeing NE winds and gusts 15-20 mph. High clouds will start
pushing into northern WY Wed night, and a weak cool front may push
into northern WY by 0600 Thu. Thu will see cooler temps and a
north wind east of the divide, with some light showers around the
mountains during the afternoon. Warm and dry west of the divide.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...McDonald
LONG TERM...Jones
AVIATION...Jones
FIRE WEATHER...McDonald